ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Ward - Paleontologist
Peter D. Ward studies life on Earth -- where it came from, how it might end, and how utterly rare it might be.

Why you should listen

Paleontologist and astrobiologist Peter D. Ward studies the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event (the one that killed the dinosaurs) and other mass extinctions. He is a leader in the intriguing new field of astrobiology, the study of the origin, distribution and evolution of life in the universe.

In his book Rare Earth he theorizes that complex life itself is so rare, it's quite possible that Earth is the only planet that has any. But, he theorizes, simple life may exist elsewhere -- and possibly be more common than we think.

His upcoming book, The Medea Hypothesis, makes a bold argument that even here on Earth, life has come close to being wiped out several times. Contrary to the "Gaia hypothesis" of a self-balancing, self-perpetuating circle of life, Ward's Medea hypothesis details the scary number of times that life has come close to flatlining, whether due to comet strikes or an overabundance of bacteria.

In March 2009, Ward's 8-hour television series, Animal Armageddon, premieres on Animal Planet Network.

In April 2013, Ward published a surprisingly moving essay about his life's obsession: the chambered nautilus >>

More profile about the speaker
Peter Ward | Speaker | TED.com
TED2008

Peter Ward: A theory of Earth's mass extinctions

Peter Ward——物种大灭绝

Filmed:
1,130,090 views

小行星撞击得到了全部关注。但是《美狄亚假说》的作者Peter Ward认为地球上物种大灭绝是由低等细菌引起的。罪魁祸首是一种叫做硫化氢的有毒物质,在医学上,它可能会成为一种有趣的应用。
- Paleontologist
Peter D. Ward studies life on Earth -- where it came from, how it might end, and how utterly rare it might be. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
So, I want to start开始 out with
0
0
2000
好,首先给大家
00:20
this beautiful美丽 picture图片 from my childhood童年.
1
2000
2000
展示一幅漂亮图片,它来自于我的童年。
00:22
I love the science科学 fiction小说 movies电影.
2
4000
2000
我特别喜欢这部科幻片。
00:24
Here it is: "This Island Earth地球."
3
6000
2000
就是这个:《飞碟征空》。
00:26
And leave离开 it to Hollywood好莱坞 to get it just right.
4
8000
2000
就让好莱坞好好诠释它吧,
00:28
Two-and-a-half两个半 years年份 in the making制造.
5
10000
2000
光制作就花了两年半时间。
00:30
(Laughter笑声)
6
12000
3000
(笑声)
00:33
I mean, even the creationists神创论 give us 6,000,
7
15000
3000
我是说,甚至连神创论者都认为地球及万物是6000年前上帝创造出来的,
00:36
but Hollywood好莱坞 goes to the chase.
8
18000
2000
好莱坞还紧随其后。
00:38
And in this movie电影, we see what we think is out there:
9
20000
4000
在这部电影中,我们看到了我们认为存在于太空的东西:
00:42
flying飞行 saucers飞碟 and aliens外星人.
10
24000
3000
飞碟和外星人。
00:45
Every一切 world世界 has an alien外侨, and every一切 alien外侨 world世界 has a flying飞行 saucer茶托,
11
27000
3000
每个世界都有外星人,每个外星人的世界都有飞碟,
00:48
and they move移动 about with great speed速度. Aliens外星人.
12
30000
4000
他们移动的速度非常快。外星人。
00:53
Well, Don Brownlee布朗利, my friend朋友, and I finally最后 got to the point
13
35000
3000
嗯,我和我的朋友Don Brownlee最终
00:56
where we got tired of turning车削 on the TV电视
14
38000
3000
还是厌烦了打开了电视机
00:59
and seeing眼看 the spaceships飞船 and seeing眼看 the aliens外星人 every一切 night,
15
41000
3000
每天晚上看飞船和外星人,
01:02
and tried试着 to write a counter-argument相反的观点 to it,
16
44000
3000
还试着写出不同的观点,
01:05
and put out what does it really take for an Earth地球 to be habitable可居住,
17
47000
4000
还有地球成为可居住星球的条件,
01:09
for a planet行星 to be an Earth地球, to have a place地点
18
51000
2000
还有怎么样才能使星球拥有这样一个地方:
01:11
where you could probably大概 get not just life, but complexity复杂,
19
53000
3000
在这里,你很可能不仅会获得生命,而且还有各种各样复杂的事情,
01:14
which哪一个 requires要求 a huge巨大 amount of evolution演化,
20
56000
2000
这需要巨大的演变,
01:16
and therefore因此 constancy恒常 of conditions条件.
21
58000
3000
还有稳定的外部条件。
01:19
So, in 2000 we wrote "Rare罕见 Earth地球." In 2003, we then asked,
22
61000
3000
所以,2000年我们写了《Rare Earth》一书。2003年,我们又提出疑问,
01:22
let's not think about where Earths地球 are in space空间, but how long has Earth地球 been Earth地球?
23
64000
5000
我们不要去思考地球在宇宙中的位置,而是要想去想想地球成为地球的时间有多久?
01:27
If you go back two billion十亿 years年份,
24
69000
2000
若回到20亿年前,
01:29
you're not on an Earth-like类似地球 planet行星 any more.
25
71000
2000
你所在的星球将不再是类地行星。
01:31
What we call an Earth-like类似地球 planet行星 is actually其实 a very short interval间隔 of time.
26
73000
4000
我们所说的类地行星其实是一段很短的时间。
01:35
Well, "Rare罕见 Earth地球" actually其实
27
77000
2000
其实《Rare Earth》
01:37
taught me an awful可怕 lot about meeting会议 the public上市.
28
79000
3000
在面对公众方面教会了我很多。
01:40
Right after, I got an invitation请帖 to go to a science科学 fiction小说 convention惯例,
29
82000
3000
在那之后,我收到了科幻大会的邀请,
01:43
and with all great earnestness语重心长 walked in.
30
85000
3000
我怀着极大的热情走进了会场。
01:46
David大卫 Brin布林 was going to debate辩论 me on this,
31
88000
2000
David Brin本打算与我争辩,
01:48
and as I walked in, the crowd人群 of a hundred started开始 booing起哄 lustily好色.
32
90000
4000
但我走进会场时,观众们开始发出嘘声。
01:52
I had a girl女孩 who came来了 up who said, "My dad says you're the devil魔鬼."
33
94000
3000
有个女孩走过来,对我说:“我爸爸说你是魔鬼。”
01:55
You cannot不能 take people's人们 aliens外星人 away from them
34
97000
4000
你不能打破别人对于外星人的幻想,
01:59
and expect期望 to be anybody's任何人的 friends朋友.
35
101000
4000
还指望成为他们的朋友。
02:03
Well, the second第二 part部分 of that, soon不久 after --
36
105000
2000
然后呢,刚过了一会儿,
02:05
and I was talking to Paul保罗 Allen艾伦; I saw him in the audience听众,
37
107000
3000
我在和Paul Allen聊天;在观众群众看到了他,
02:08
and I handed him a copy复制 of "Rare罕见 Earth地球."
38
110000
2000
然后我递给他一本《Rare Earth》。
02:10
And Jill吉尔 Tarter塔特 was there, and she turned转身 to me,
39
112000
4000
Jill Tarter也在那儿,她转过来,
02:14
and she looked看着 at me just like that girl女孩 in "The Exorcist祓魔师."
40
116000
3000
看着我,就像《驱魔人》中的那个女孩。
02:17
It was, "It burns烧伤! It burns烧伤!"
41
119000
2000
“着火啦!着火啦!”
02:19
Because SETISETI doesn't want to hear this.
42
121000
2000
因为“搜寻地外文明计划”可不想听到这个。
02:21
SETISETI wants there to be stuff东东 out there.
43
123000
3000
他们希望外星球上有东西可寻。
02:24
I really applaud鼓掌 the SETISETI efforts努力, but we have not heard听说 anything yet然而.
44
126000
3000
我确实会为“搜寻地外文明计划”的努力而鼓掌,可还没听到任何动静。
02:27
And I really do think we have to start开始 thinking思维
45
129000
2000
而且我也确实认为我们必须开始思考
02:29
about what's a good planet行星 and what isn't.
46
131000
3000
什么是好星球,什么不是。
02:32
Now, I throw this slide滑动 up because it indicates指示 to me that,
47
134000
3000
现在我给大家展示这个幻灯是因为它告诉我
02:35
even if SETISETI does hear something, can we figure数字 out what they said?
48
137000
4000
即使“搜寻地外文明计划”听到了一些东西,我们听懂他们说的是什么呢?
02:39
Because this was a slide滑动 that was passed通过
49
141000
2000
由于这个幻灯片
02:41
between之间 the two major重大的 intelligences智能 on Earth地球 -- a Mac苹果电脑 to a PC个人计算机 --
50
143000
4000
是在地球上两种智慧----Mac(苹果)和PC(微软)----之间进行转换,
02:45
and it can't even get the letters right --
51
147000
3000
而它甚至连字母都弄不对——
02:48
(Laughter笑声)
52
150000
2000
(笑声)
02:50
-- so how are we going to talk to the aliens外星人?
53
152000
2000
——那我们可怎么跟外星人说话呢?
02:52
And if they're 50 light years年份 away, and we call them up,
54
154000
3000
而且,如果他们离咱们50光年远,咱们给他们打电话,
02:55
and you blah胡说, blah胡说, blah胡说, blah胡说, blah胡说,
55
157000
2000
然后你叭啦叭啦说了一大堆,
02:57
and then 50 years年份 later后来 it comes back and they say, Please repeat重复?
56
159000
3000
50年后收到回复,他们来了一句:“请再说一遍?”
03:00
I mean, there we are.
57
162000
2000
终于联系上了,但他们也听不懂我们在说什么。
03:02
Our planet行星 is a good planet行星 because it can keep water.
58
164000
3000
我们的星球是个好星球,因为它能储存水。
03:05
Mars火星 is a bad planet行星, but it's still good enough足够 for us to go there
59
167000
4000
火星就不怎么样,但是如果我们能去,
03:09
and to live生活 on its surface表面 if we're protected保护.
60
171000
2000
而且如果能在受保护的情况下住在它表面,那还是很不错的。
03:11
But Venus金星 is a very bad -- the worst最差 -- planet行星.
61
173000
3000
金星是个非常不好----其实是最不好----的星球。
03:14
Even though虽然 it's Earth-like类似地球, and even though虽然 early in its history历史
62
176000
3000
即使它是类地星球,即使在其初期,
03:17
it may可能 very well have harbored怀着 Earth-like类似地球 life,
63
179000
3000
它或许也是类地星球上生命居住的美好港湾,
03:20
it soon不久 succumbed屈服于 to runaway逃跑 greenhouse温室 --
64
182000
3000
但不久它就败给了一发不可收拾的温室效应——
03:23
that's an 800 degrees [Fahrenheit飞轮海] surface表面 --
65
185000
2000
800度的高温的表面——
03:25
because of rampant猖獗 carbon dioxide二氧化碳.
66
187000
3000
起因就是猖獗的二氧化碳。
03:28
Well, we know from astrobiology天体生物学 that we can really now predict预测
67
190000
3000
我们知道,从天体生物学角度来说,现在确实能够预测
03:31
what's going to happen发生 to our particular特定 planet行星.
68
193000
3000
地球将来会发生什么。
03:34
We are right now in the beautiful美丽 Oreo奥利奥
69
196000
3000
在第一个糟糕的微生物时代之后,
03:37
of existence存在 -- of at least最小 life on Planet行星 Earth地球 --
70
199000
3000
我们现在正处在地球上至少还有生命存在
03:40
following以下 the first horrible可怕 microbial微生物 age年龄.
71
202000
3000
的美丽奥利奥时代。
03:43
In the Cambrian寒武纪的 explosion爆炸, life emerged出现 from the swamps沼泽,
72
205000
3000
寒武纪生命大爆发时,海洋中出现生命,
03:46
complexity复杂 arose出现,
73
208000
2000
产生极其复杂的食物,
03:48
and from what we can tell, we're halfway through通过.
74
210000
3000
由此推断,我们已经经历了一半。
03:51
We have as much time for animals动物 to exist存在 on this planet行星
75
213000
3000
第二次微生物时代之前,
03:54
as they have been here now,
76
216000
2000
动物已经出现,
03:56
till直到 we hit击中 the second第二 microbial微生物 age年龄.
77
218000
2000
我们有足够的时间让它们在这个星球上生存。
03:58
And that will happen发生, paradoxically自相矛盾 --
78
220000
2000
相反,你听到所有关于地球变暖的事情
04:00
everything you hear about global全球 warming变暖 --
79
222000
2000
都会发生。
04:02
when we hit击中 COCO2 down to 10 parts部分 per million百万,
80
224000
3000
二氧化碳含量减少到百万分之十时,
04:05
we are no longer going to have to have plants植物
81
227000
2000
进行光合作用的植物
04:07
that are allowed允许 to have any photosynthesis光合作用, and there go animals动物.
82
229000
4000
将不再生存,当然动物也会消失了。
04:11
So, after that we probably大概 have seven billion十亿 years年份.
83
233000
2000
所以,在那之后,我们估计还会有70亿年时间。
04:13
The Sun太阳 increases增加 in its intensity强度, in its brightness亮度,
84
235000
3000
太阳的强度和亮度都会增强,
04:16
and finally最后, at about 12 billion十亿 years年份 after it first started开始,
85
238000
5000
最终,在120亿年之后,
04:21
the Earth地球 is consumed消费 by a large Sun太阳,
86
243000
3000
巨大的太阳将地球消耗殆尽,
04:24
and this is what's left.
87
246000
3000
这就是剩下的。
04:27
So, a planet行星 like us is going to have an age年龄 and an old age年龄,
88
249000
4000
所以,像我们这样的星球会有寿命,而且是很长的寿命,
04:31
and we are in its golden金色 summer夏季 age年龄 right now.
89
253000
4000
我们现在正处于它的黄金阶段。
04:35
But there's two fates命运 to everything, isn't there?
90
257000
2000
但凡事都有两面性,对吧?
04:37
Now, a lot of you are going to die of old age年龄,
91
259000
3000
现如今,很多人都会年老而死,
04:40
but some of you, horribly可怕 enough足够, are going to die in an accident事故.
92
262000
3000
但糟糕的是,一些人会死于意外。
04:43
And that's the fate命运 of a planet行星, too.
93
265000
2000
一个星球的命运也同样如此。
04:45
Earth地球, if we're lucky幸运 enough足够 -- if it doesn't get hit击中 by a Hale-Bopp海尔 - 波普,
94
267000
4000
在接下来的70亿年里,咱们要是足够幸运,
04:49
or gets得到 blasted炮轰 by some supernova超新星 nearby附近
95
271000
4000
地球如果不被海勒·波普彗星碰撞,
04:53
in the next下一个 seven billion十亿 years年份 -- we'll find under your feet.
96
275000
3000
或不被它附近的某些超新星消灭掉——我们会在你们脚下发现线索。
04:56
But what about accidental偶然 death死亡?
97
278000
2000
但是意外死亡呢?
04:58
Well, paleontologists古生物学家 for the last 200 years年份
98
280000
2000
在过去的200年里,古生物学家
05:00
have been charting制图 death死亡. It's strange奇怪 --
99
282000
2000
都一直密切观察并记录死亡情况。
05:02
extinction灭绝 as a concept概念 wasn't even thought about
100
284000
3000
直到法国的Baron Cuvier发现第一只乳齿象
05:05
until直到 Baron男爵 Cuvier居维叶 in France法国 found发现 this first mastodon乳齿象.
101
287000
3000
作为概念,灭绝才开始引起人们的思考。
05:08
He couldn't不能 match比赛 it up to any bones骨头 on the planet行星,
102
290000
2000
他当时没法把乳齿象和地球上任何一种骨头对应起来,
05:10
and he said, Aha! It's extinct绝种.
103
292000
2000
然后就说,啊哈,灭绝了!
05:12
And very soon不久 after, the fossil化石 record记录 started开始 yielding生产
104
294000
3000
不久之后,化石的历史记录开始产生
05:15
a very good idea理念 of how many许多 plants植物 and animals动物 there have been
105
297000
3000
一个非常好的想法,那就是,自从人类复杂的生命
05:18
since以来 complex复杂 life really began开始 to leave离开
106
300000
2000
真正开始在化石历史上留名的时候
05:20
a very interesting有趣 fossil化石 record记录.
107
302000
3000
到底存在有多少植物和动物。
05:23
In that complex复杂 record记录 of fossils化石,
108
305000
3000
在化石的复杂历史记录中,
05:26
there were times when lots of stuff东东
109
308000
2000
确实有些时候很多东西
05:28
seemed似乎 to be dying垂死 out very quickly很快,
110
310000
2000
看起来很快要灭绝了,
05:30
and the father父亲/mother母亲 geologists地质学家
111
312000
2000
于是,地质学家之父或之母
05:32
called these "mass extinctions灭绝."
112
314000
2000
把这种现象叫作“物种大灭绝”。
05:34
All along沿 it was thought to be either an act法案 of God
113
316000
2000
一直以来,人们认为这或许是上帝的行为,
05:36
or perhaps也许 long, slow climate气候 change更改,
114
318000
2000
也或者是长期,缓慢的气候变化。
05:38
and that really changed in 1980,
115
320000
2000
1980年,在古比奥附近一块露出地面的岩层
05:40
in this rocky岩石 outcrop露出 near Gubbio古比奥,
116
322000
3000
确实发生了改变。
05:43
where Walter沃尔特 Alvarez阿尔瓦雷斯, trying to figure数字 out
117
325000
3000
Walter Alvarez试图在这儿弄清楚
05:46
what was the time difference区别 between之间 these white白色 rocks岩石,
118
328000
3000
这些包含着白垩纪时代生物的
05:49
which哪一个 held保持 creatures生物 of the Cretaceous白垩纪 period,
119
331000
2000
白色岩石相差的年代,
05:51
and the pink rocks岩石 above以上, which哪一个 held保持 Tertiary第三 fossils化石.
120
333000
2000
还有上方包含了第三纪化石的粉红岩石。
05:53
How long did it take to go from one system系统 to the next下一个?
121
335000
4000
从一个时期到下一个时期需要多长时间?
05:57
And what they found发现 was something unexpected意外.
122
339000
2000
他们的发现让人出乎意料。
05:59
They found发现 in this gap间隙, in between之间, a very thin clay粘土 layer,
123
341000
3000
他们在一层薄薄的粘土层
06:02
and that clay粘土 layer -- this very thin red layer here --
124
344000
3000
和那层粘土层之间,有一层很薄的红色土层,
06:05
is filled填充 with iridium.
125
347000
2000
里面充满了铱。
06:07
And not just iridium; it's filled填充 with glassy spherules小球,
126
349000
3000
不仅是铱,还有玻璃球粒,
06:10
and it's filled填充 with quartz石英 grains谷物
127
352000
2000
和石英颗粒。
06:12
that have been subjected to enormous巨大 pressure压力: shock休克 quartz石英.
128
354000
4000
这些石英颗粒受巨大压力的影响:冲击石英。
06:16
Now, in this slide滑动 the white白色 is chalk粉笔,
129
358000
2000
现在,幻灯片里的白色是白垩粉,
06:18
and this chalk粉笔 was deposited沉积 in a warm ocean海洋.
130
360000
3000
积存在温暖的海洋中。
06:21
The chalk粉笔 itself's本身是 composed by plankton浮游生物
131
363000
2000
这种白垩粉本身由从海面跌落海底的
06:23
which哪一个 has fallen堕落 down from the sea surface表面 onto the sea floor地板,
132
365000
4000
浮游生物组成。
06:27
so that 90 percent百分 of the sediment沉淀 here is skeleton骨架 of living活的 stuff东东,
133
369000
3000
所以这种沉淀物90%的成分是活物的尸体,
06:30
and then you have that millimeter-thick毫米厚 red layer,
134
372000
2000
接着你就看到了毫米厚的红色土层,
06:32
and then you have black黑色 rock.
135
374000
2000
然后是黑色岩石。
06:34
And the black黑色 rock is the sediment沉淀 on the sea bottom底部
136
376000
3000
没有浮游生物时,海底的沉淀物
06:37
in the absence缺席 of plankton浮游生物.
137
379000
2000
便形成了黑色岩石。
06:39
And that's what happens发生 in an asteroid小行星 catastrophe灾难,
138
381000
4000
这就是小行星灾难时发生的情况,
06:43
because that's what this was, of course课程. This is the famous著名 K-TKT.
139
385000
3000
当然是因为这就是当时发生的事。这是著名的白垩纪第三纪灭绝事件。
06:46
A 10-kilometer-公里 body身体 hit击中 the planet行星.
140
388000
2000
一个直径10公里的物体撞击了星球。
06:48
The effects效果 of it spread传播 this very thin impact碰撞 layer all over the planet行星,
141
390000
4000
结果是整个星球都蒙上了一层薄薄的土层,
06:52
and we had very quickly很快 the death死亡 of the dinosaurs恐龙,
142
394000
3000
而且不久之后,恐龙,
06:55
the death死亡 of these beautiful美丽 ammonites,
143
397000
2000
菊石类就灭绝了。
06:57
LeconteicerasLeconteiceras here, and CelaecerasCelaeceras over here,
144
399000
2000
这是Leconteiceras ,还有Celaeceras ,
06:59
and so much else其他.
145
401000
2000
以及其它许多物种。
07:01
I mean, it must必须 be true真正,
146
403000
2000
我意思是,这肯定是真的,
07:03
because we've我们已经 had two Hollywood好莱坞 blockbusters大片 since以来 that time,
147
405000
3000
因为那时候我们就有了两部好莱坞大片,
07:06
and this paradigm范例, from 1980 to about 2000,
148
408000
3000
从1980年到2000年左右,这个例子已经
07:09
totally完全 changed how we geologists地质学家 thought about catastrophes灾难.
149
411000
5000
完全改变了我们地质学家对灾难的看法。
07:14
Prior to that, uniformitarianism均变 was the dominant优势 paradigm范例:
150
416000
3000
在那之前,均变说是主导思想:
07:17
the fact事实 that if anything happens发生 on the planet行星 in the past过去,
151
419000
3000
也就是说,如果星球上以前发生了任何事,
07:20
there are present-day今天 processes流程 that will explain说明 it.
152
422000
4000
会有当代的理论来解释。
07:24
But we haven't没有 witnessed目击 a big asteroid小行星 impact碰撞,
153
426000
3000
但我们还没亲眼见过巨大的小行星撞击,
07:27
so this is a type类型 of neo-catastrophism新灾变,
154
429000
2000
所以这是新灾变的一种类型。
07:29
and it took about 20 years年份 for the scientific科学 establishment编制
155
431000
3000
而科学的论据真正解决问题
07:32
to finally最后 come to grips交手: yes, we were hit击中;
156
434000
2000
大约要花20年时间:没错,我们被撞了;
07:34
and yes, the effects效果 of that hit击中 caused造成 a major重大的 mass extinction灭绝.
157
436000
4000
没错,撞击导致了物种大灭绝。
07:39
Well, there are five major重大的 mass extinctions灭绝
158
441000
2000
在过去5亿年里,
07:41
over the last 500 million百万 years年份, called the Big Five.
159
443000
3000
一共有五次物大灭绝,我们称作“Big Five”。
07:44
They range范围 from 450 million百万 years年份 ago
160
446000
3000
从4.5亿年前,
07:47
to the last, the K-TKT, number four,
161
449000
2000
到上一次白垩纪第三纪灭绝,也就是第四次,
07:49
but the biggest最大 of all was the P, or the Permian二叠纪 extinction灭绝,
162
451000
4000
但规模最大的一次是二叠纪生物绝灭事件,
07:53
sometimes有时 called the mother母亲 of all mass extinctions灭绝.
163
455000
2000
有时候也被叫作“大规模灭绝之母”。
07:55
And every一切 one of these has been subsequently后来 blamed指责
164
457000
3000
它们其中的每一次都后来都被归结于
07:58
on large-body大身 impact碰撞.
165
460000
2000
大型小星球撞击。
08:00
But is this true真正?
166
462000
2000
但这对吗?
08:03
The most recent最近, the Permian二叠纪, was thought to have been an impact碰撞
167
465000
3000
最近一次,也就是二叠纪生物灭绝事件被认为是撞击的结果,
08:06
because of this beautiful美丽 structure结构体 on the right.
168
468000
2000
原因就是右图这个美丽的结构。
08:08
This is a Buckminsterfullerene富勒烯, a carbon-碳-60.
169
470000
3000
这是勃克明斯特富勒,一种碳60,
08:11
Because it looks容貌 like those terrible可怕 geodesic domes圆顶
170
473000
3000
因为它看起来很像我心爱60年代的
08:14
of my late晚了 beloved心爱 '60s,
171
476000
2000
网格状球顶,
08:16
they're called "buckyballs巴基球."
172
478000
2000
叫作“巴基球”。
08:18
This evidence证据 was used to suggest建议
173
480000
2000
这些证据表明了
08:20
that at the end结束 of the Permian二叠纪, 250 million百万 years年份 ago, a comet彗星 hit击中 us.
174
482000
4000
在2.5亿年前,也就是二叠纪的末期,一颗彗星撞击了我们。
08:24
And when the comet彗星 hits点击, the pressure压力 produces产生 the buckyballs巴基球,
175
486000
3000
彗星撞击的时候,压力产生了巴基球,
08:27
and it captures捕获 bits of the comet彗星.
176
489000
2000
巴基球又抓到了彗星的尾巴。
08:29
Helium-氦-3: very rare罕见 on the surface表面 of the Earth地球, very common共同 in space空间.
177
491000
4000
氦-3:地球表面非常稀少,但在太空里却非常常见。
08:34
But is this true真正?
178
496000
2000
那么这又是真的吗?
08:36
In 1990, working加工 on the K-TKT extinction灭绝 for 10 years年份,
179
498000
4000
1990年,在研究了白垩纪第三纪灭绝10年之后,
08:40
I moved移动 to South Africa非洲 to begin开始 work twice两次 a year
180
502000
3000
我搬到了南非,开始在大卡鲁沙漠工作,
08:43
in the great Karoo卡鲁 desert沙漠.
181
505000
2000
一年两次。
08:45
I was so lucky幸运 to watch the change更改 of that South Africa非洲
182
507000
3000
一年年过去后,能看到南非
08:48
into the new South Africa非洲 as I went year by year.
183
510000
3000
变成了一个新的南非,我感到非常幸运。
08:51
And I worked工作 on this Permian二叠纪 extinction灭绝,
184
513000
2000
当时我在研究二叠纪生物灭绝事件,
08:53
camping露营 by this Boer波尔 graveyard墓地 for months个月 at a time.
185
515000
3000
每次都在波尔的墓地露营好几个月。
08:56
And the fossils化石 are extraordinary非凡.
186
518000
3000
那些化石非常棒。
08:59
You know, you're gazing凝视 upon your very distant遥远 ancestors祖先.
187
521000
2000
要知道,你可是正在看着古老的祖先呢。
09:01
These are mammal-like哺乳动物样 reptiles爬行动物.
188
523000
2000
他们是类似哺乳动物的爬行动物。
09:03
They are culturally文化 invisible无形. We do not make movies电影 about these.
189
525000
3000
从文化角度讲,我们没见过它们。因为没有关于它们的电影。
09:06
This is a Gorgonopsian丽齿兽亚目, or a Gorgon芡实.
190
528000
2000
这是Gorgonopsian(兽孔目爬行动物的一种亚目),也叫Gorgon。
09:08
That's an 18-inch-英寸 long skull头骨 of an animal动物
191
530000
4000
这种动物的头骨有18英寸长,
09:12
that was probably大概 seven or eight feet, sprawled like a lizard蜥蜴,
192
534000
4000
身高大概有7或8英尺,爬行的样子像蜥蜴,
09:16
probably大概 had a head like a lion狮子.
193
538000
2000
可能长了一颗如狮子一般的头。
09:18
This is the top最佳 carnivore肉食动物, the T-RexT-雷克斯 of its time.
194
540000
2000
这是顶极食肉动物,称得上当年的霸王龙。
09:20
But there's lots of stuff东东.
195
542000
2000
但有太多东西了。
09:22
This is my poor较差的 son儿子, Patrick帕特里克.
196
544000
2000
这是我可怜儿子Patrick。
09:24
(Laughter笑声)
197
546000
1000
(笑声)
09:25
This is called paleontological古生物 child儿童 abuse滥用.
198
547000
3000
这是古生物学上的虐待儿童。
09:28
Hold保持 still, you're the scale规模.
199
550000
2000
稳住了,你们可是标尺啊。
09:30
(Laughter笑声)
200
552000
5000
(笑声)
09:36
There was big stuff东东 back then.
201
558000
3000
那时候还有个大家伙。
09:39
Fifty-five五十五 species种类 of mammal-like哺乳动物样 reptiles爬行动物.
202
561000
3000
55个似哺乳类爬行动物种族。
09:42
The age年龄 of mammals哺乳动物 had well and truly started开始
203
564000
3000
哺乳动物的时代已经真正开始了。
09:45
250 million百万 years年份 ago ...
204
567000
2000
2.5亿年前...
09:47
... and then a catastrophe灾难 happened发生.
205
569000
3000
...接着,灾难发生了。
09:50
And what happens发生 next下一个 is the age年龄 of dinosaurs恐龙.
206
572000
2000
然后恐龙时代到来。
09:52
It was all a mistake错误; it should have never happened发生. But it did.
207
574000
4000
这完全是一个错误;本来不应该发生的,但却发生了。
09:56
Now, luckily,
208
578000
2000
如今,幸运的是,
09:58
this Thrinaxodon三尖叉齿兽属, the size尺寸 of a robin知更鸟 egg here:
209
580000
3000
这种蛇颈龙,跟知更鸟蛋一样大:
10:01
this is a skull头骨 I've discovered发现 just before taking服用 this picture图片 --
210
583000
3000
在拍照之前我才发现这是头骨--
10:04
there's a pen钢笔 for scale规模; it's really tiny --
211
586000
2000
这是用来测量的钢笔,确实很小——
10:06
this is in the Lower降低 Triassic三叠纪, after the mass extinction灭绝 has finished.
212
588000
4000
这是早三叠世时期,也就是物种大灭绝之后。
10:10
You can see the eye socket插座 and you can see the little teeth in the front面前.
213
592000
3000
你能看到眼窝和前方的小牙齿。
10:13
If that does not survive生存, I'm not the thing giving this talk.
214
595000
5000
如果那都没法存活的话,我就不可能是今天演讲的这个人了。
10:18
Something else其他 is, because if that doesn't survive生存, we are not here;
215
600000
4000
还有,若它没有生存下来,我们今天就不会在这里了;
10:22
there are no mammals哺乳动物. It's that close; one species种类 ekesEKES through通过.
216
604000
4000
它们不是哺乳动物。就差了一点儿; 一个物种勉强生存了下来。
10:26
Well, can we say anything about the pattern模式 of who survives生存 and who doesn't?
217
608000
3000
那么,我们能够说清楚谁能生存而谁不能这种模式吗?
10:29
Here's这里的 sort分类 of the end结束 of that 10 years年份 of work.
218
611000
2000
这差不多是10年工作的尾声了。
10:31
The ranges范围 of stuff东东 -- the red line线 is the mass extinction灭绝.
219
613000
3000
范围是——红色的线就是物种大灭绝。
10:34
But we've我们已经 got survivors幸存者 and things that get through通过,
220
616000
2000
不过我们也有躲过灾难的幸存者,
10:36
and it turns out the things that get through通过 preferentially优先 are cold bloods血液.
221
618000
4000
结果是,优先生存下来的是冷血动物。
10:40
Warm-blooded温血的 animals动物 take a huge巨大 hit击中 at this time.
222
622000
4000
恒温动物这次受到了重击。
10:45
The survivors幸存者 that do get through通过
223
627000
2000
幸存者
10:47
produce生产 this world世界 of crocodile-like鳄鱼一样 creatures生物.
224
629000
3000
为这个世界繁殖了类似鳄鱼的生物。
10:50
There's no dinosaurs恐龙 yet然而; just this slow, saurian蜥蜴, scaly有鳞的, nasty讨厌,
225
632000
4000
那时还没有恐龙;只有这种缓慢,蜥蜴类,有鳞,恶心,
10:54
swampy沼泽的 place地点 with a couple一对 of tiny mammals哺乳动物 hiding in the fringes条纹.
226
636000
5000
多沼泽的地方,有几个小型哺乳动物藏在边缘里。
10:59
And there they would hide隐藏 for 160 million百万 years年份,
227
641000
3000
他们还将再藏1.6亿年,
11:02
until直到 liberated解放 by that K-TKT asteroid小行星.
228
644000
3000
直到被白垩纪第三季小行星解放。
11:05
So, if not impact碰撞, what?
229
647000
2000
那么,要是没撞击的话,会怎样呢?
11:07
And the what, I think, is that we returned, over and over again,
230
649000
4000
我认为,我们会一次又一次地
11:11
to the Pre-Cambrian前寒武纪 world世界, that first microbial微生物 age年龄,
231
653000
3000
重回前寒武纪时期,也就是第一个微生物时代,
11:14
and the microbes微生物 are still out there.
232
656000
2000
而微生物也还仍然存在。
11:16
They hate讨厌 we animals动物.
233
658000
2000
它们痛恨我们这种动物。
11:18
They really want their world世界 back.
234
660000
2000
它们很想重回自己的世界。
11:20
And they've他们已经 tried试着 over and over and over again.
235
662000
4000
而且也一次又一次地努力尝试。
11:24
This suggests提示 to me that life causing造成 these mass extinctions灭绝
236
666000
3000
这让我想到导致物种大灭绝的生命,
11:27
because it did is inherently本质 anti-Gaian反盖亚.
237
669000
3000
因为它确实本来就与盖亚假说不相容。
11:30
This whole整个 Gaia盖亚 idea理念, that life makes品牌 the world世界 better for itself本身 --
238
672000
5000
盖亚的整个假说就是,生命为其本身使世界更美好——
11:35
anybody任何人 been on a freeway高速公路 on a Friday星期五 afternoon下午 in Los洛杉矶 Angeles洛杉矶
239
677000
4000
周五下午在洛杉矶高速公路上开过车的任何人
11:39
believing相信 in the Gaia盖亚 theory理论? No.
240
681000
2000
都相信盖亚假说吗?不是。
11:41
So, I really suspect疑似 there's an alternative替代,
241
683000
3000
所以,我确实怀疑有其它的理论。
11:44
and that life does actually其实 try to do itself本身 in --
242
686000
2000
而且生命确实是试图在做自己。
11:46
not consciously自觉, but just because it does.
243
688000
2000
虽然并不是无意识地,但确实如此。
11:48
And here's这里的 the weapon武器, it seems似乎, that it did so over the last 500 million百万 years年份.
244
690000
4000
这就是武器,看起来好像在过去5亿年当中它都是这么做的。
11:52
There are microbes微生物 which哪一个, through通过 their metabolism代谢,
245
694000
3000
通过微生物的新陈代谢,它们
11:55
produce生产 hydrogen sulfide硫化物,
246
697000
2000
会产生氢化硫,
11:57
and they do so in large amounts.
247
699000
3000
而且量相当大。
12:00
Hydrogen sulfide硫化物 is very fatal致命 to we humans人类.
248
702000
3000
硫化氢对我们人类来说非常致命。
12:03
As small as 200 parts部分 per million百万 will kill you.
249
705000
4000
百万分之二百这么小的量就能将你杀死。
12:09
You only have to go to the Black黑色 Sea and a few少数 other places地方 -- some lakes湖泊 --
250
711000
4000
只需要去黑海和其它少数几个地方,像一些湖泊之类的,
12:13
and get down, and you'll你会 find that the water itself本身 turns purple紫色.
251
715000
4000
蹲下来仔细看,你就会发现水本身变成紫色了。
12:17
It turns purple紫色 from the presence存在 of numerous众多 microbes微生物
252
719000
3000
变成紫色,是因为数不尽的微生物出现,
12:20
which哪一个 have to have sunlight阳光 and have to have hydrogen sulfide硫化物,
253
722000
3000
它们必须有阳光,而且还得有硫化氢。
12:23
and we can detect检测 their presence存在 today今天 -- we can see them --
254
725000
4000
现在我们能检测到它们的存在,也能看得见,
12:27
but we can also detect检测 their presence存在 in the past过去.
255
729000
2000
但是以前也能检测到。
12:29
And the last three years年份 have seen看到
256
731000
2000
过去的三年时间是在
12:31
an enormous巨大 breakthrough突破 in a brand-new全新的 field领域.
257
733000
3000
新领域的重大突破。
12:34
I am almost几乎 extinct绝种 --
258
736000
2000
我也快灭绝了——
12:36
I'm a paleontologist古生物学家 who collects收集 fossils化石.
259
738000
2000
我是个收集化石的古生物学家。
12:38
But the new wave of paleontologists古生物学家 -- my graduate毕业 students学生们 --
260
740000
3000
但新一波的古生物学家,也就是我们的研究生们,
12:41
collect搜集 biomarkers生物标记物.
261
743000
2000
他们收集生物标记。
12:43
They take the sediment沉淀 itself本身, they extract提取 the oil from it,
262
745000
4000
他们取沉淀物本身,从其中提取油,
12:47
and from that they can produce生产 compounds化合物
263
749000
2000
通过油,又能制作混合物,
12:49
which哪一个 turn out to be very specific具体 to particular特定 microbial微生物 groups.
264
751000
4000
结果发现这种混合物适于某种特定的微生物种群。
12:53
It's because lipids血脂 are so tough强硬, they can get preserved罐头 in sediment沉淀
265
755000
4000
这是因为油脂太粗糙了,它们可以通过沉淀物保存下来,
12:57
and last the hundreds数以百计 of millions百万 of years年份 necessary必要,
266
759000
3000
然后经过上百亿年,
13:00
and be extracted提取 and tell us who was there.
267
762000
2000
被提取出来,还能告诉我们谁曾经在那儿生存过。
13:02
And we know who was there. At the end结束 of the Permian二叠纪,
268
764000
3000
这个我们知道。二叠纪末期时,
13:05
at many许多 of these mass extinction灭绝 boundaries边界,
269
767000
2000
在很多物种灭绝的边界上,
13:07
this is what we find: isorenierateneisorenieratene. It's very specific具体.
270
769000
4000
我们发现了这个: isorenieratene(编者注:一种类胡罗卜素化合物,只有在生活在缺氧水化变层附近的绿色硫细菌身上才能找到)。这很具体了。
13:11
It can only occur发生 if the surface表面 of the ocean海洋 has no oxygen,
271
773000
4000
只有在海面上缺氧时才会产生,
13:15
and is totally完全 saturated饱和的 with hydrogen sulfide硫化物 --
272
777000
3000
还得完全充满了足够的硫化氢——
13:18
enough足够, for instance, to come out of solution.
273
780000
3000
才会从溶液中析出。
13:21
This led Lee背风处 KumpKump酒店, and others其他 from Penn佩恩 State and my group,
274
783000
4000
这使得来自滨州的Lee Kump和我团队的另外一些人
13:25
to propose提出 what I call the KumpKump酒店 Hypothesis假设:
275
787000
3000
提出了我称为“坎普假说”的理论:
13:28
many许多 of the mass extinctions灭绝 were caused造成 by lowering降低 oxygen,
276
790000
3000
很多物种大灭绝都是由于氧气含量的降低,
13:31
by high COCO2. And the worst最差 effect影响 of global全球 warming变暖, it turns out:
277
793000
4000
以及二氧化碳浓度的增大。全球变暖最严重的影响就是:
13:35
hydrogen sulfide硫化物 being存在 produced生成 out of the oceans海洋.
278
797000
3000
海洋会产生硫化氢。
13:38
Well, what's the source资源 of this?
279
800000
2000
那么,根源是什么呢?
13:40
In this particular特定 case案件, the source资源 over and over has been flood洪水 basalts玄武岩.
280
802000
4000
在这种情况下,反复的根源就是洪流玄武岩。
13:44
This is a view视图 of the Earth地球 now, if we extract提取 a lot of it.
281
806000
3000
如果我们从地球榨取的太多,这就是它现在的样子。
13:47
And each of these looks容貌 like a hydrogen bomb炸弹;
282
809000
2000
它们每个都看起来好像氢弹;
13:49
actually其实, the effects效果 are even worse更差.
283
811000
2000
其实,后果会更糟。
13:51
This is when deep-Earth深地球 material材料 comes to the surface表面,
284
813000
3000
这是地下深层物质到了表面,
13:54
spreads利差 out over the surface表面 of the planet行星.
285
816000
2000
然后扩散到星球表面。
13:56
Well, it's not the lava岩浆 that kills杀死 anything,
286
818000
3000
并不是火山岩杀死了一切,
13:59
it's the carbon dioxide二氧化碳 that comes out with it.
287
821000
2000
是二氧化碳。
14:01
This isn't Volvos沃尔沃; this is volcanoes火山.
288
823000
3000
这可不是沃尔沃,这是火山。
14:04
But carbon dioxide二氧化碳 is carbon dioxide二氧化碳.
289
826000
2000
但二氧化碳就是二氧化碳。
14:07
So, these are new data数据 Rob Berner伯纳 and I -- from Yale耶鲁 -- put together一起,
290
829000
3000
这些数据是来自耶鲁的Rob Berner和我一起得出的,
14:10
and what we try to do now is
291
832000
2000
我们现在试着
14:12
track跟踪 the amount of carbon dioxide二氧化碳 in the entire整个 rock record记录 --
292
834000
3000
追踪整个岩层的二氧化碳含量。
14:15
and we can do this from a variety品种 of means手段 --
293
837000
3000
我们有很多种方法。
14:18
and put all the red lines线 here,
294
840000
2000
在我称之为“温室物种大灭绝”的情况发生时,
14:20
when these -- what I call greenhouse温室 mass extinctions灭绝 -- took place地点.
295
842000
3000
就会有这些红线了。
14:23
And there's two things that are really evident明显 here to me,
296
845000
2000
对我来说,有两件事非常明显,
14:25
is that these extinctions灭绝 take place地点 when COCO2 is going up.
297
847000
3000
那就是,二氧化碳上升会导致灭绝。
14:28
But the second第二 thing that's not shown显示 on here:
298
850000
3000
第二件事没有在这展示:
14:31
the Earth地球 has never had any ice on it
299
853000
3000
二氧化碳含量为百万分之一千时,
14:34
when we've我们已经 had 1,000 parts部分 per million百万 COCO2.
300
856000
4000
地球上从来没有冰。
14:38
We are at 380 and climbing攀登.
301
860000
2000
现在已经到了百万分之三百八是,还在继续攀升。
14:40
We should be up to a thousand in three centuries百年 at the most,
302
862000
3000
我们最多能在300年后保持在百万分之一千,
14:43
but my friend朋友 David大卫 Battisti巴提斯蒂 in Seattle西雅图 says he thinks a 100 years年份.
303
865000
4000
但我在西雅图的朋友David Battisti说他认为一百年就差不多了。
14:47
So, there goes the ice caps帽子,
304
869000
2000
这就是冰盖,
14:49
and there comes 240 feet of sea level水平 rise上升.
305
871000
4000
这是海平面上升了240英尺。
14:53
I live生活 in a view视图 house now;
306
875000
2000
我现在住在一座景观房子里;
14:55
I'm going to have waterfront滨水.
307
877000
2000
将来还会有滨水区。
14:57
All right, what's the consequence后果? The oceans海洋 probably大概 turn purple紫色.
308
879000
4000
好吧,会有什么后果呢?海洋很可能变成紫色的。
15:01
And we think this is the reason原因 that complexity复杂 took so long
309
883000
3000
我们还认为这就是为什么地球上产生
15:04
to take place地点 on planet行星 Earth地球.
310
886000
2000
复杂生命的时间如此之久。
15:06
We had these hydrogen sulfide硫化物 oceans海洋 for a very great long period.
311
888000
3000
含有硫化氢的海洋已经存在了相当长的时间。
15:09
They stop complex复杂 life from existing现有.
312
891000
4000
它们阻止了复杂生命的存在。
15:13
We know hydrogen sulfide硫化物 is erupting爆发 presently目前 a few少数 places地方 on the planet行星.
313
895000
5000
我们知道,最近在地球上少数地方硫化氢开始爆发。
15:18
And I throw this slide滑动 in -- this is me, actually其实, two months个月 ago --
314
900000
4000
给大家展示这个幻灯——哦,这是我,两个月前——
15:22
and I throw this slide滑动 in because here is my favorite喜爱 animal动物, chambered有房间的 nautilus鹦鹉螺.
315
904000
4000
给大家展示这个幻灯是因为这是我最喜欢的动物,贝类动物鹦鹉螺。
15:26
It's been on this planet行星 since以来 the animals动物 first started开始 -- 500 million百万 years年份.
316
908000
4000
5亿年前,这个星球上刚有动物的时候它就存在了。
15:30
This is a tracking追踪 experiment实验, and any of you scuba水肺 divers潜水员,
317
912000
3000
这是个追踪实验,你们这些潜水员中任何一个
15:33
if you want to get involved参与 in one of the coolest最酷 projects项目 ever,
318
915000
3000
如果想加入史上最酷工程之一的话,
15:36
this is off the Great Barrier屏障 Reef.
319
918000
2000
这就是大堡礁。
15:38
And as we speak说话 now,
320
920000
1000
正如我们所说,
15:39
these nautilus鹦鹉螺 are tracking追踪 out their behaviors行为 to us.
321
921000
3000
我们正追踪这些鹦鹉螺的行动。
15:42
But the thing about this is that every一切 once一旦 in a while
322
924000
4000
但是关键是,每隔一阵儿,
15:46
we divers潜水员 can run into trouble麻烦,
323
928000
2000
我们这些潜水者就会碰上麻烦,
15:48
so I'm going to do a little thought experiment实验 here.
324
930000
2000
所以我会进行项思维实验。
15:50
This is a Great White白色 Shark鲨鱼 that ate some of my traps陷阱.
325
932000
3000
这是头大白鲨,它中了我的圈套。
15:53
We pulled it up; up it comes. So, it's out there with me at night.
326
935000
3000
我们把它拉了上来。所以,它晚上跟我待在一起。
15:56
So, I'm swimming游泳的 along沿, and it takes off my leg.
327
938000
3000
我游着泳,它能把我腿扯掉。
15:59
I'm 80 miles英里 from shore支撑, what's going to happen发生 to me?
328
941000
3000
当时离岸边80英里,我会怎么样呢?
16:02
Well now, I die.
329
944000
2000
现在肯定已经死了。
16:04
Five years年份 from now, this is what I hope希望 happens发生 to me:
330
946000
2000
5年之内,我希望这能发生在我身上。
16:06
I'm taken采取 back to the boat, I'm given特定 a gas加油站 mask面具:
331
948000
3000
我被拖到船上,别人给我戴上了防毒面具:
16:09
80 parts部分 per million百万 hydrogen sulfide硫化物.
332
951000
3000
因为硫化氢的含量有百万分之八十。
16:12
I'm then thrown抛出 in an ice pond池塘, I'm cooled冷却 15 degrees lower降低
333
954000
4000
然后我被扔进冰池里,体温降了15度。
16:16
and I could be taken采取 to a critical危急 care关心 hospital醫院.
334
958000
4000
接下来可能会被送到重症监护室。
16:20
And the reason原因 I could do that is because we mammals哺乳动物
335
962000
2000
我会这么做的另外一个原因是因为我们哺乳动物
16:22
have gone走了 through通过 a series系列 of these hydrogen sulfide硫化物 events事件,
336
964000
3000
已经经历了一系列硫化氢事件,
16:25
and our bodies身体 have adapted适应.
337
967000
2000
我们的身体也已经适应了。
16:27
And we can now use this as what I think will be a major重大的 medical breakthrough突破.
338
969000
4000
我认为,可以利用这点成为重大的医学突破。
16:31
This is Mark标记 Roth罗斯. He was funded资助 by DARPADARPA.
339
973000
2000
这是Mark Roth。他受美国国防部高级研究计划局(DARPA)资助,
16:33
Tried试着 to figure数字 out how to save保存 Americans美国人 after battlefield战场 injuries受伤.
340
975000
4000
试图弄清楚怎么样才能拯救在战场受伤的美国人。
16:37
He bleeds出血 out pigs.
341
979000
2000
他拿猪做实验,把它割伤流血。
16:39
He puts看跌期权 in 80 parts部分 per million百万 hydrogen sulfide硫化物 --
342
981000
3000
注入了百万分之八十的硫化氢——
16:42
the same相同 stuff东东 that survived幸存 these past过去 mass extinctions灭绝 --
343
984000
3000
这种物质也是从过去物种大灭绝中存活下来的——
16:45
and he turns a mammal哺乳动物 into a reptile爬虫.
344
987000
2000
然后哺乳动物就变成了爬行动物。
16:47
"I believe we are seeing眼看 in this response响应 the result结果 of mammals哺乳动物 and reptiles爬行动物
345
989000
4000
“我认为,从这个结果中我们看出,哺乳动物和爬行动物
16:51
having undergone经历 a series系列 of exposures曝光 to H2S."
346
993000
3000
经受了一系列遭遇——与硫化氢接触。”
16:54
I got this email电子邮件 from him two years年份 ago;
347
996000
2000
我两年前收到他的邮件;
16:56
he said, "I think I've got an answer回答 to some of your questions问题."
348
998000
3000
他说:“对于你的一些问题,我想我找到了答案。”
16:59
So, he now has taken采取 mice老鼠 down
349
1001000
2000
所以,现在他用小鼠做实验,
17:01
for as many许多 as four hours小时, sometimes有时 six hours小时,
350
1003000
4000
时间是4个小时,有时候6小时。
17:05
and these are brand-new全新的 data数据 he sent发送 me on the way over here.
351
1007000
2000
在我来这儿的路上,他把这些全新的数据发给了我。
17:07
On the top最佳, now, that is a temperature温度 record记录 of a mouse老鼠 who has gone走了 through通过 --
352
1009000
5000
现在看,顶部的温度是生存下来的老鼠的体温——
17:12
the dotted line线, the temperatures温度.
353
1014000
2000
就是那条虚线,表示温度。
17:14
So, the temperature温度 starts启动 at 25 centigrade摄氏,
354
1016000
2000
起始温度是25度,
17:16
and down it goes, down it goes.
355
1018000
1000
然后下降,下降。
17:17
Six hours小时 later后来, up goes the temperature温度.
356
1019000
2000
六小时之后,又上升。
17:19
Now, the same相同 mouse老鼠 is given特定 80 parts部分 per million百万 hydrogen sulfide硫化物
357
1021000
5000
现在,还是同样一只老鼠,同样是这个图,给空气中
17:24
in this solid固体 graph图形,
358
1026000
2000
注入百万分之八十硫化氢,
17:26
and look what happens发生 to its temperature温度.
359
1028000
2000
观察它的体温变化。
17:28
Its temperature温度 drops滴剂.
360
1030000
2000
下降了。
17:30
It goes down to 15 degrees centigrade摄氏 from 35,
361
1032000
4000
从35度降到了15度,
17:34
and comes out of this perfectly完美 fine.
362
1036000
3000
然后又安然无恙了。
17:37
Here is a way we can get people to critical危急 care关心.
363
1039000
3000
这种方法,能让人进重症监护室。
17:40
Here's这里的 how we can bring带来 people cold enough足够 to last till直到 we get critical危急 care关心.
364
1042000
5000
还能让人的体温冷到一定程度,直到被送进重症监护。
17:46
Now, you're all thinking思维, yeah, what about the brain tissue组织?
365
1048000
4000
现在你们都在想,没错,那大脑组织呢?
17:50
And so this is one of the great challenges挑战 that is going to happen发生.
366
1052000
3000
因此这是即将发生的最巨大挑战之一。
17:53
You're in an accident事故. You've got two choices选择:
367
1055000
2000
你出意外了。有两个选择:
17:55
you're going to die, or you're going to take the hydrogen sulfide硫化物
368
1057000
3000
死掉,否则你就要呼吸硫化氢,
17:58
and, say, 75 percent百分 of you is saved保存, mentally精神上.
369
1060000
3000
大概你75%的心智能被救活。
18:01
What are you going to do?
370
1063000
2000
怎么办呢?
18:03
Do we all have to have a little button按键 saying, Let me die?
371
1065000
3000
我们是不是都必须有一个小按钮,写着“让我死吧”?
18:06
This is coming未来 towards us,
372
1068000
2000
这正在发生,
18:08
and I think this is going to be a revolution革命.
373
1070000
2000
我认为这将成为一场革命。
18:10
We're going to save保存 lives生活, but there's going to be a cost成本 to it.
374
1072000
3000
我们要拯救生命,但要付出代价。
18:13
The new view视图 of mass extinctions灭绝 is, yes, we were hit击中,
375
1075000
2000
对物种大灭绝,从一个新的角度看,是的,我们被撞击了,
18:15
and, yes, we have to think about the long term术语,
376
1077000
2000
而且,是的,我们不得不从长远考虑,
18:17
because we will get hit击中 again.
377
1079000
2000
因为我们会再次被撞击。
18:19
But there's a far worse更差 danger危险 confronting面对 us.
378
1081000
2000
但是我们将面对一个更糟的情况。
18:21
We can easily容易 go back to the hydrogen sulfide硫化物 world世界.
379
1083000
3000
要回到那个充满硫化氢的世界轻而易举。
18:24
Give us a few少数 millennia千年 --
380
1086000
2000
再有几千年的时间——
18:26
and we humans人类 should last those few少数 millennia千年 --
381
1088000
2000
咱们人类应该还能再活几千年吧——
18:28
will it happen发生 again? If we continue继续, it'll它会 happen发生 again.
382
1090000
4000
这种事情会发生吗?如果继续下去的话,肯定会。
18:32
How many许多 of us flew here?
383
1094000
2000
有多少人是坐飞机来的?
18:34
How many许多 of us have gone走了 through通过
384
1096000
2000
有多少人仅仅因为
18:36
our entire整个 Kyoto京都 quota配额
385
1098000
3000
今年坐飞机的次数
18:39
just for flying飞行 this year?
386
1101000
2000
就通不过京都议定书中的限额?
18:41
How many许多 of you have exceeded突破 it? Yeah, I've certainly当然 exceeded突破 it.
387
1103000
3000
有多少人超标了?没错,我肯定超了。
18:44
We have a huge巨大 problem问题 facing面对 us as a species种类.
388
1106000
3000
对人类种族来说,还有一个重大的问题等着我们。
18:47
We have to beat击败 this.
389
1109000
2000
我们必须将其解决。
18:49
I want to be able能够 to go back to this reef. Thank you.
390
1111000
4000
我想重回大堡礁。谢谢。
18:53
(Applause掌声)
391
1115000
6000
(鼓掌)
18:59
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: I've just got one question for you, Peter彼得.
392
1121000
2000
Chris Anderson:Peter,我有个问题要问你。
19:01
Am I understanding理解 you right, that what you're saying here
393
1123000
2000
我是不是理解对了,你的意思是说
19:03
is that we have in our own拥有 bodies身体
394
1125000
2000
在我们自己身体里
19:05
a biochemical生化 response响应 to hydrogen sulfide硫化物
395
1127000
4000
对硫化氢有一种生化反应,
19:09
that in your mind心神 proves证明 that there have been past过去 mass extinctions灭绝
396
1131000
3000
您认为是由于气候变化才导致了
19:12
due应有 to climate气候 change更改?
397
1134000
2000
物种大灭绝?
19:14
Peter彼得 Ward病房: Yeah, every一切 single cell细胞 in us
398
1136000
2000
Peter Ward:对,我们的每个细胞
19:16
can produce生产 minute分钟 quantities数量 of hydrogen sulfide硫化物 in great crises危机.
399
1138000
3000
都能产生巨大危机中的微量硫化氢。
19:20
This is what Roth罗斯 has found发现 out.
400
1142000
1000
这是Roth发现的。
19:21
So, what we're looking at now: does it leave离开 a signal信号?
401
1143000
2000
那么,我们现在面对的是:会有信号吗?
19:23
Does it leave离开 a signal信号 in bone or in plant?
402
1145000
2000
会在骨头或者植物上有信号吗?
19:25
And we go back to the fossil化石 record记录 and we could try to detect检测
403
1147000
3000
然后我们又回到化石记录中试图检测
19:28
how many许多 of these have happened发生 in the past过去.
404
1150000
2000
在过去发生了多少事情。
19:30
CACA: It's simultaneously同时
405
1152000
2000
Chris Anderson:这既是
19:32
an incredible难以置信 medical technique技术, but also a terrifying可怕的 ...
406
1154000
3000
一种不可思议的医疗技术,但也很恐怖......
19:35
PWPW: Blessing祝福 and curse诅咒.
407
1157000
3000
Peter Ward:是把双刃剑。
Translated by Gina Tan
Reviewed by Zhu Jie

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Ward - Paleontologist
Peter D. Ward studies life on Earth -- where it came from, how it might end, and how utterly rare it might be.

Why you should listen

Paleontologist and astrobiologist Peter D. Ward studies the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event (the one that killed the dinosaurs) and other mass extinctions. He is a leader in the intriguing new field of astrobiology, the study of the origin, distribution and evolution of life in the universe.

In his book Rare Earth he theorizes that complex life itself is so rare, it's quite possible that Earth is the only planet that has any. But, he theorizes, simple life may exist elsewhere -- and possibly be more common than we think.

His upcoming book, The Medea Hypothesis, makes a bold argument that even here on Earth, life has come close to being wiped out several times. Contrary to the "Gaia hypothesis" of a self-balancing, self-perpetuating circle of life, Ward's Medea hypothesis details the scary number of times that life has come close to flatlining, whether due to comet strikes or an overabundance of bacteria.

In March 2009, Ward's 8-hour television series, Animal Armageddon, premieres on Animal Planet Network.

In April 2013, Ward published a surprisingly moving essay about his life's obsession: the chambered nautilus >>

More profile about the speaker
Peter Ward | Speaker | TED.com