TEDSalon NY2014
Naomi Oreskes: Why we should trust scientists
Naomi Oreskes: Zašto bi trebalo da verujemo naučnicima
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Mnogi od najvećih svetskih problema zahtevaju postavljanje pitanja naučnicima - ali zašto bismo verovali tome što kažu? Istoričar nauke, Naomi Oreskes, duboko razmišlja o našem odnosu ka veri i izvlači tri problema sa opštim stavom ka naučničkom ispitivanju - i daje svoje rezonovanje zbog čega bi trebalo verovati nauci.
Naomi Oreskes - Historian of science
Naomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial. Full bio
Naomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Every day we face issues like climate change
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Svakodnevno se suočavamo sa problemima
poput klimatskih promena
poput klimatskih promena
00:16
or the safety of vaccines
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ili bezbednosti vakcina
00:17
where we have to answer questions whose answers
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gde moramo da odgovorimo na pitanja
čiji odgovori
čiji odgovori
00:20
rely heavily on scientific information.
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su zasnovani na naučnim informacijama.
00:23
Scientists tell us that the world is warming.
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Naučnici nam govore da se svet zagreva.
00:26
Scientists tell us that vaccines are safe.
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Naučnici nam govore
da su vakcine bezbedne.
da su vakcine bezbedne.
00:29
But how do we know if they are right?
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Kako da znamo da li su u pravu?
00:31
Why should be believe the science?
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Zašto da verujemo nauci?
00:33
The fact is, many of us actually
don't believe the science.
don't believe the science.
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Zapravo, mnogi od nas ne veruju nauci.
00:36
Public opinion polls consistently show
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Istraživanja javnog mnjenja
dosledno pokazuju
dosledno pokazuju
00:39
that significant proportions of the American people
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da znatan deo Amerikanaca
00:42
don't believe the climate is
warming due to human activities,
warming due to human activities,
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ne veruje da su klimatske promene
izazvane čovekovim delovanjem,
izazvane čovekovim delovanjem,
00:45
don't think that there is
evolution by natural selection,
evolution by natural selection,
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ne veruje u evoluciju
putem prirodne selekcije,
putem prirodne selekcije,
00:48
and aren't persuaded by the safety of vaccines.
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i nije uveren u bezbednost vakcina.
00:52
So why should we believe the science?
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Zašto onda da verujemo nauci?
00:56
Well, scientists don't like talking about
science as a matter of belief.
science as a matter of belief.
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Naučnici ne vole da govore o nauci
kao o predmetu verovanja.
kao o predmetu verovanja.
00:59
In fact, they would contrast science with faith,
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Zapravo, suprotstavili bi nauku veri
01:02
and they would say belief is the domain of faith.
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i rekli bi da verovanje pripada veri.
01:05
And faith is a separate thing
apart and distinct from science.
apart and distinct from science.
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A vera je jasno odvojena
i drugačija od nauke.
i drugačija od nauke.
01:09
Indeed they would say religion is based on faith
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Rekli bi čak da je religija
zasnovana na veri
zasnovana na veri
01:12
or maybe the calculus of Pascal's wager.
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ili možda proračunu Paskalove opklade.
01:15
Blaise Pascal was a 17th-century mathematician
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Blez Paskal je bio matematičar iz 17. veka
01:18
who tried to bring scientific
reasoning to the question of
reasoning to the question of
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koji je pokušao da uvede
naučno mišljenje u pitanje
naučno mišljenje u pitanje
01:21
whether or not he should believe in God,
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da li da veruje u boga ili ne
01:23
and his wager went like this:
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i evo kako je išla njegova opklada:
01:25
Well, if God doesn't exist
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Ako bog ne postoji,
01:28
but I decide to believe in him
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a ja odlučim da verujem u njega,
01:30
nothing much is really lost.
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neću mnogo izgubiti.
01:32
Maybe a few hours on Sunday.
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Možda nekoliko sati nedeljom.
01:34
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:35
But if he does exist and I don't believe in him,
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Ali ako on postoji,
a ja ne verujem u njega,
a ja ne verujem u njega,
01:38
then I'm in deep trouble.
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u velikom sam problemu.
01:40
And so Pascal said, we'd better believe in God.
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Tako je Paskal rekao
da je bolje da verujemo u boga.
da je bolje da verujemo u boga.
01:43
Or as one of my college professors said,
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Kako je rekao jedan od mojih profesora:
01:45
"He clutched for the handrail of faith."
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"Posegnuo je za rukohvatom vere."
01:47
He made that leap of faith
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Odlučio je da posegne za verom
01:49
leaving science and rationalism behind.
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ostavljajući nauku i racionalizam
za sobom.
za sobom.
01:54
Now the fact is though, for most of us,
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Međutim, činjenica je da, za većinu nas,
01:56
most scientific claims are a leap of faith.
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naučna saznanja predstavljaju
posezanje za verom.
posezanje za verom.
02:00
We can't really judge scientific
claims for ourselves in most cases.
claims for ourselves in most cases.
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Uglavnom ne možemo sami da procenimo
naučna saznanja.
naučna saznanja.
02:04
And indeed this is actually
true for most scientists as well
true for most scientists as well
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To je slučaj i sa većinom naučnika
02:07
outside of their own specialties.
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van njihovih uskih struka.
02:09
So if you think about it, a geologist can't tell you
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Ako malo razmislite,
geolog ne može da vam kaže
geolog ne može da vam kaže
02:12
whether a vaccine is safe.
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da li je neka vakcina bezbedna.
02:13
Most chemists are not experts in evolutionary theory.
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Većina hemičara nisu stručnjaci
za teoriju evolucije.
za teoriju evolucije.
02:16
A physicist cannot tell you,
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Fizičar ne može da vam kaže,
02:19
despite the claims of some of them,
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šta god neki od njih govorili,
02:20
whether or not tobacco causes cancer.
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da li duvan izaziva rak ili ne.
02:24
So, if even scientists themselves
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Ako i sami naučnici
02:26
have to make a leap of faith
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moraju da imaju poverenja
02:27
outside their own fields,
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u ono što nije iz njihove oblasti,
02:29
then why do they accept the
claims of other scientists?
claims of other scientists?
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zašto prihvataju tvrdnje drugih naučnika?
02:33
Why do they believe each other's claims?
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Zašto veruju u ono što drugi tvrde?
02:35
And should we believe those claims?
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I da li bi trebalo mi u to da verujemo?
02:39
So what I'd like to argue is yes, we should,
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Ja smatram da bi trebalo u to da verujemo,
02:41
but not for the reason that most of us think.
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ali ne zbog razloga
na koji većina nas misli.
na koji većina nas misli.
02:44
Most of us were taught in school
that the reason we should
that the reason we should
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Uglavnom su nas učili u školi da treba
02:47
believe in science is because of the scientific method.
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da verujemo u nauku zbog naučnog metoda.
02:50
We were taught that scientists follow a method
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Učili su nas da naučnici
prate određeni metod
prate određeni metod
02:53
and that this method guarantees
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i da taj metod garantuje
02:55
the truth of their claims.
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istinitost njihovih tvrdnji.
02:57
The method that most of us were taught in school,
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Metod kome su nas uglavnom učili u školi,
03:01
we can call it the textbook method,
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nazovimo ga udžbenički metod,
03:02
is the hypothetical deductive method.
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jeste hipotetički deduktivni metod.
03:05
According to the standard
model, the textbook model,
model, the textbook model,
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Prema standardnom, udžbeničkom modelu,
03:08
scientists develop hypotheses, they deduce
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naučnici razvijaju hipoteze,
dedukuju posledice tih hipoteza,
03:11
the consequences of those hypotheses,
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03:14
and then they go out into the world and they say,
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pa odu u stvarni svet i kažu:
03:15
"Okay, well are those consequences true?"
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"Jesu li te posledice tačne?"
03:18
Can we observe them taking
place in the natural world?
place in the natural world?
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Možemo li ih uočiti u prirodi?
03:21
And if they are true, then the scientists say,
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Ako su tačne, naučnici kažu:
03:24
"Great, we know the hypothesis is correct."
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"Super, znamo da je hipoteza tačna."
03:27
So there are many famous examples in the history
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Mnogo je poznatih primera
u istoriji nauke
u istoriji nauke
03:29
of science of scientists doing exactly this.
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gde naučnici upravo to i rade.
03:32
One of the most famous examples
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Jedan od najpoznatijih primera
03:34
comes from the work of Albert Einstein.
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vezan je za delo Alberta Ajnštajna.
03:36
When Einstein developed the
theory of general relativity,
theory of general relativity,
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Kada je Ajnštajn razvio
opštu teoriju relativnosti,
opštu teoriju relativnosti,
03:38
one of the consequences of his theory
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jedna od posledica njegove teorije
03:41
was that space-time wasn't just an empty void
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bila je da prostor-vreme
nije samo praznina
nije samo praznina
03:44
but that it actually had a fabric.
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već da je sačinjeno od neke materije.
03:45
And that that fabric was bent
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Ta materija je iskrivljena
03:47
in the presence of massive objects like the sun.
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u prisustvu ogromnih predmeta
poput Sunca.
poput Sunca.
03:50
So if this theory were true then it meant that light
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Ako je ova teorija tačna,
znači da svetlost
znači da svetlost
03:53
as it passed the sun
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kad prolazi pored Sunca
03:55
should actually be bent around it.
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treba da se iskrivi oko njega.
03:57
That was a pretty startling prediction
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Bila je to iznenađujuća pretpostavka
03:59
and it took a few years before scientists
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i bilo je potrebno nekoliko godina
04:01
were able to test it
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da je naučnici ispitaju,
04:03
but they did test it in 1919,
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ispitali su je 1919.
04:05
and lo and behold it turned out to be true.
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i zapravo se ispostavila tačnom.
04:07
Starlight actually does bend
as it travels around the sun.
as it travels around the sun.
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Svetlost sa zvezda se zaista krivi
dok putuje oko Sunca.
dok putuje oko Sunca.
04:11
This was a huge confirmation of the theory.
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Bila je to važna potvrda ove teorije.
04:13
It was considered proof of the truth
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Smatrana je dokazom istinitosti
04:15
of this radical new idea,
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te nove radikalne ideje
04:16
and it was written up in many newspapers
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i o tome se pisalo u novinama
04:18
around the globe.
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širom sveta.
04:21
Now, sometimes this theory or this model
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Ponekad se ova teorija ili model
04:23
is referred to as the deductive-nomological model,
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naziva deduktivno-nomološki model,
04:26
mainly because academics like
to make things complicated.
to make things complicated.
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uglavnom zato što naučnici
vole da zakomplikuju stvari.
vole da zakomplikuju stvari.
04:30
But also because in the ideal case, it's about laws.
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Ali i zato što se u savršenim slučajevima
radi o zakonima.
radi o zakonima.
Nomološki znači da je
povezano sa zakonima.
povezano sa zakonima.
04:35
So nomological means having to do with laws.
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04:38
And in the ideal case, the hypothesis isn't just an idea:
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U savršenom slučaju
hipoteza nije puka ideja:
hipoteza nije puka ideja:
04:41
ideally, it is a law of nature.
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reč je o prirodnom zakonu.
04:43
Why does it matter that it is a law of nature?
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Zašto je važno da bude prirodni zakon?
04:46
Because if it is a law, it can't be broken.
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Zato što, ako je zakon,
ne može biti prekršena.
ne može biti prekršena.
04:48
If it's a law then it will always be true
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Ako je zakon, uvek će biti istinita,
04:50
in all times and all places
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bilo kad i bilo gde,
04:52
no matter what the circumstances are.
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kakve god da su okolnosti.
04:54
And all of you know of at least
one example of a famous law:
one example of a famous law:
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Svi znate bar jedan primer
poznatog zakona:
poznatog zakona:
04:57
Einstein's famous equation, E=MC2,
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Ajnštajnova čuvena jednačina, E=MC2,
05:01
which tells us what the relationship is
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koja objašnjava odnos
05:03
between energy and mass.
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između energije i mase.
05:05
And that relationship is true no matter what.
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Taj odnos je uvek istinit.
05:09
Now, it turns out, though, that there
are several problems with this model.
are several problems with this model.
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Međutim, postoji nekoliko problema
sa ovim modelom.
sa ovim modelom.
05:13
The main problem is that it's wrong.
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Glavni problem je to što je pogrešan.
05:16
It's just not true. (Laughter)
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Prosto nije tačan. (Smeh)
05:20
And I'm going to talk about
three reasons why it's wrong.
three reasons why it's wrong.
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Govoriću o tri razloga
zbog kojih je pogrešan.
zbog kojih je pogrešan.
05:22
So the first reason is a logical reason.
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Prvi je logički razlog.
05:25
It's the problem of the fallacy
of affirming the consequent.
of affirming the consequent.
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To je problem logičke greške
tvrđenja posledice.
tvrđenja posledice.
05:29
So that's another fancy, academic way of saying
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I to je moderan, naučnički način da kažemo
05:31
that false theories can make true predictions.
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da iz netačnih teorija
mogu proisteći tačne pretpostavke.
mogu proisteći tačne pretpostavke.
05:34
So just because the prediction comes true
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Ako se utvrdi da je pretpostavka tačna,
05:36
doesn't actually logically
prove that the theory is correct.
prove that the theory is correct.
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zapravo nije logično dokazano
da je teorija tačna.
da je teorija tačna.
05:39
And I have a good example of that too,
again from the history of science.
again from the history of science.
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I za to imam dobar primer,
ponovo iz istorije nauke.
ponovo iz istorije nauke.
05:43
This is a picture of the Ptolemaic universe
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Ovo je slika ptolomejskog svemira
05:46
with the Earth at the center of the universe
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sa Zemljom u središtu svemira
05:48
and the sun and the planets going around it.
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i Suncem i planetama
koji se okreću oko nje.
koji se okreću oko nje.
05:50
The Ptolemaic model was believed
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U ptolomejski model su verovali
05:52
by many very smart people for many centuries.
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mnogi veoma pametni ljudi vekovima.
05:56
Well, why?
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Zbog čega?
05:57
Well the answer is because it made
lots of predictions that came true.
lots of predictions that came true.
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Zato što su iz njega proizišle
mnoge tačne pretpostavke.
mnoge tačne pretpostavke.
06:01
The Ptolemaic system enabled astronomers
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Zahvaljujući potlomejskom sistemu,
06:03
to make accurate predictions
of the motions of the planet,
of the motions of the planet,
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astronomi su precizno predviđali
kretanja planete,
kretanja planete,
06:06
in fact more accurate predictions at first
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čak i tačnije u početku
06:08
than the Copernican theory
which we now would say is true.
which we now would say is true.
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od Kopernikove teorije
koju bismo sad prihvatili kao tačnu.
koju bismo sad prihvatili kao tačnu.
06:12
So that's one problem with the textbook model.
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To je jedan od problema
udžbeničkog modela.
udžbeničkog modela.
06:15
A second problem is a practical problem,
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Drugi je praktični problem,
06:18
and it's the problem of auxiliary hypotheses.
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odnosno problem pomoćnih hipoteza.
06:21
Auxiliary hypotheses are assumptions
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Pomoćne hipoteze su pretpostavke
06:24
that scientists are making
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koje naučnici stvaraju,
06:26
that they may or may not even
be aware that they're making.
be aware that they're making.
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a toga možda i nisu svesni.
06:29
So an important example of this
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Važan primer ovoga
06:31
comes from the Copernican model,
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vezan je za Kopernikov model,
06:33
which ultimately replaced the Ptolemaic system.
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koji je kasnije zamenio
ptolomejski sistem.
ptolomejski sistem.
06:37
So when Nicolaus Copernicus said,
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Nikola Kopernik je rekao
06:39
actually the Earth is not the center of the universe,
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da Zemlja zapravo nije središte svemira,
06:41
the sun is the center of the solar system,
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Sunce je centar Sunčevog sistema,
06:43
the Earth moves around the sun.
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Zemlja se okreće oko Sunca.
06:45
Scientists said, well okay, Nicolaus, if that's true
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Naučnici su rekli da, ako je to tačno,
06:48
we ought to be able to detect the motion
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trebalo bi da smo u stanju
06:50
of the Earth around the sun.
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da primetimo kretanje Zemlje oko Sunca.
06:52
And so this slide here illustrates a concept
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Ovaj slajd ilustruje koncept
06:54
known as stellar parallax.
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poznat kao zvezdana paralaksa.
06:56
And astronomers said, if the Earth is moving
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Astronomi su rekli da, ako se Zemlja kreće
07:00
and we look at a prominent star, let's say, Sirius --
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i posmatramo sjajnu zvezdu,
recimo, Sirijus -
recimo, Sirijus -
znam da sam na Menhetnu,
tako da vi zvezde i ne vidite,
tako da vi zvezde i ne vidite,
07:03
well I know I'm in Manhattan
so you guys can't see the stars,
so you guys can't see the stars,
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07:05
but imagine you're out in the country,
imagine you chose that rural life —
imagine you chose that rural life —
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ali zamislite da ste na selu,
da ste izabrali ruralni život -
da ste izabrali ruralni život -
07:09
and we look at a star in December, we see that star
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ako pogledamo neku zvezdu
u decembru
u decembru
07:12
against the backdrop of distant stars.
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videćemo u pozadini i udaljene zvezde.
07:15
If we now make the same observation six months later
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Ako to isto pogledamo za šest meseci,
07:18
when the Earth has moved to this position in June,
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kad Zemlja dođe do ovog položaja u junu,
07:22
we look at that same star and we
see it against a different backdrop.
see it against a different backdrop.
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videćemo istu zvezdu,
ali sa drugačijom pozadinom.
ali sa drugačijom pozadinom.
07:26
That difference, that angular
difference, is the stellar parallax.
difference, is the stellar parallax.
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Ta razlika u uglu
zove se zvezdana paralaksa.
zove se zvezdana paralaksa.
07:30
So this is a prediction that the Copernican model makes.
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To je pretpostavka Kopernikovog modela.
07:33
Astronomers looked for the stellar parallax
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Astronomi su tražili zvezdanu paralaksu
07:35
and they found nothing, nothing at all.
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i nisu došli ni do čega.
07:40
And many people argued that this proved
that the Copernican model was false.
that the Copernican model was false.
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Mnogi su tvrdili da je to dokaz
netačnosti Kopernikovog modela.
netačnosti Kopernikovog modela.
07:44
So what happened?
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Šta se onda dogodilo?
07:46
Well, in hindsight we can say
that astronomers were making
that astronomers were making
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Možemo da pretpostavimo da su astronomi
07:48
two auxiliary hypotheses, both of which
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pravili dve pomoćne hipoteze
07:51
we would now say were incorrect.
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i za obe bismo sad rekli da su netačne.
07:53
The first was an assumption
about the size of the Earth's orbit.
about the size of the Earth's orbit.
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Prva je bila pretpostavka
o veličini Zemljine orbite.
o veličini Zemljine orbite.
07:57
Astronomers were assuming
that the Earth's orbit was large
that the Earth's orbit was large
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Astronomi su pretpostavljali
da je Zemljina orbita velika
da je Zemljina orbita velika
08:00
relative to the distance to the stars.
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u odnosu na udaljenost od zvezda.
08:02
Today we would draw the picture more like this,
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Danas bismo pre nacrtali ovakvu sliku,
08:05
this comes from NASA,
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ovu je uradila NASA
08:06
and you see the Earth's orbit is actually quite small.
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i vidi se da je Zemljina orbita
prilično mala.
prilično mala.
08:09
In fact, it's actually much
smaller even than shown here.
smaller even than shown here.
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Zapravo je mnogo manja
nego što je ovde prikazano.
nego što je ovde prikazano.
08:12
The stellar parallax therefore,
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Stoga je zvezdana paralaksa
08:13
is very small and actually very hard to detect.
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veoma mala i jako ju je teško uočiti.
To nas dovodi do drugog razloga
08:17
And that leads to the second reason
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zbog kog pretpostavka nije funkcionisala,
08:19
why the prediction didn't work,
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08:21
because scientists were also assuming
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1915
a to je pretpostavka naučnika
08:23
that the telescopes they had were sensitive enough
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da su njihovi teleskopi dovoljno precizni
08:26
to detect the parallax.
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1900
da uoče paralaksu.
08:27
And that turned out not to be true.
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2017
Ispostavilo se da to nije tačno.
08:29
It wasn't until the 19th century
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Tek su u 19. veku
08:32
that scientists were able to detect
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naučnici mogli da uoče
08:34
the stellar parallax.
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zvezdanu paralaksu.
08:35
So, there's a third problem as well.
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Postoji i treći problem.
08:38
The third problem is simply a factual problem,
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2778
To je prosto činjenični problem,
nauka se dobrim delom ne uklapa
u udžbenički model.
u udžbenički model.
08:41
that a lot of science doesn't fit the textbook model.
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2816
08:43
A lot of science isn't deductive at all,
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Nauka dobrim delom uopšte nije deduktivna,
08:46
it's actually inductive.
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već je induktivna.
08:48
And by that we mean that scientists don't necessarily
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To znači da naučnici ne polaze nužno
08:50
start with theories and hypotheses,
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od teorija i hipoteza,
08:52
often they just start with observations
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često polaze od opažanja
08:54
of stuff going on in the world.
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događaja u svetu.
08:57
And the most famous example
of that is one of the most
of that is one of the most
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Najpoznatiji primer za ovo
08:59
famous scientists who ever lived, Charles Darwin.
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jedan je od najvećih naučnika
svih vremena, Čarls Darvin.
svih vremena, Čarls Darvin.
09:02
When Darwin went out as a young
man on the voyage of the Beagle,
man on the voyage of the Beagle,
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Kada je Darvin kao mladić
pošao na putovanje brodom Bigl,
pošao na putovanje brodom Bigl,
09:05
he didn't have a hypothesis, he didn't have a theory.
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nije imao nikakvu hipotezu ili teoriju.
09:09
He just knew that he wanted
to have a career as a scientist
to have a career as a scientist
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Jedino je znao da želi da radi kao naučnik
09:12
and he started to collect data.
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i počeo je da prikuplja podatke.
09:14
Mainly he knew that he hated medicine
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Znao je uglavnom da mrzi medicinu
jer mu je kad ugleda krv bilo toliko loše
09:17
because the sight of blood made him sick so
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1818
09:19
he had to have an alternative career path.
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da je potražio drugo zanimanje.
09:21
So he started collecting data.
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Tako je počeo da prikuplja podatke.
09:23
And he collected many things,
including his famous finches.
including his famous finches.
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Prikupio je mnogo toga,
između ostalog i čuvene zebe.
između ostalog i čuvene zebe.
09:26
When he collected these finches,
he threw them in a bag
he threw them in a bag
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2210
Kada je pronašao te zebe,
ubacio ih je u vreću
ubacio ih je u vreću
09:28
and he had no idea what they meant.
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2340
i nije ni pretpostavljao šta to znači.
09:31
Many years later back in London,
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Mnogo godina kasnije u Londonu
09:33
Darwin looked at his data again and began
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Darvin je ponovo analizirao svoje podatke
09:35
to develop an explanation,
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2448
i počeo da razvija objašnjenje,
09:38
and that explanation was the
theory of natural selection.
theory of natural selection.
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3298
odnosno teoriju prirodne selekcije.
09:41
Besides inductive science,
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Pored induktivne nauke,
09:43
scientists also often participate in modeling.
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naučnici se često bave stvaranjem modela.
09:46
One of the things scientists want to do in life
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2336
Jedan od životnih ciljeva naučnika
09:48
is to explain the causes of things.
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jeste da objasne uzrok stvari.
09:51
And how do we do that?
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1518
Kako se to radi?
09:52
Well, one way you can do it is to build a model
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2252
Recimo, tako što se napravi model
09:54
that tests an idea.
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koji ispituje određenu ideju.
09:56
So this is a picture of Henry Cadell,
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1931
Ovo je slika Henrija Kadela,
09:58
who was a Scottish geologist in the 19th century.
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škotskog geologa iz 19. veka.
Jasno je da je iz Škotske jer nosi
10:01
You can tell he's Scottish because he's wearing
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1433
10:02
a deerstalker cap and Wellington boots.
225
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avijatičarsku kapu i gumene čizme.
10:05
(Laughter)
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2154
(Smeh)
Kadel je hteo da odgovori na pitanje
10:07
And Cadell wanted to answer the question,
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1566
10:08
how are mountains formed?
228
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1768
kako nastaju planine.
10:10
And one of the things he had observed
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1516
Jedno od njegovih opažanja je da,
10:12
is that if you look at mountains
like the Appalachians,
like the Appalachians,
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2574
ako pogledate venac
poput Apalačkih planina,
poput Apalačkih planina,
često ćete uočiti da su stene u njima
10:14
you often find that the rocks in them
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1633
10:16
are folded,
232
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1469
naborane,
10:17
and they're folded in a particular way,
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1646
i to na poseban način,
10:19
which suggested to him
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1444
što mu je dalo ideju
10:20
that they were actually being
compressed from the side.
compressed from the side.
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2949
da su možda sabijane
sa jedne na drugu stranu.
sa jedne na drugu stranu.
10:23
And this idea would later play a major role
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2088
Ta ideja je kasnije odigrala ključnu ulogu
10:25
in discussions of continental drift.
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2423
u raspravama o pomeranju kontinenanta.
10:28
So he built this model, this crazy contraption
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616410
2506
Napravio je jedan model,
suludu skalameriju
suludu skalameriju
10:30
with levers and wood, and here's his wheelbarrow,
239
618916
2152
sa polugama i drvetom;
evo baštenskih kolica,
evo baštenskih kolica,
10:33
buckets, a big sledgehammer.
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2442
kanti, velikog malja.
10:35
I don't know why he's got the Wellington boots.
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1898
Ne znam zašto je u gumenim čizmama.
10:37
Maybe it's going to rain.
242
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1577
Možda samo što nije počela kiša.
10:38
And he created this physical model in order
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Napravio je ovaj fizički model
10:42
to demonstrate that you could, in fact, create
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630070
3965
da bi pokazao da se zaista mogu stvoriti
10:46
patterns in rocks, or at least, in this case, in mud,
245
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2674
šare u kamenu, ili u ovom slučaju u blatu,
10:48
that looked a lot like mountains
246
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2226
i da podsećaju na planine
10:50
if you compressed them from the side.
247
638935
1842
ako se sabijaju sa obe strane.
10:52
So it was an argument about
the cause of mountains.
the cause of mountains.
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3628
Bio je to dokaz o poreklu planina.
10:56
Nowadays, most scientists prefer to work inside,
249
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3048
Danas naučnici radije rade unutra,
10:59
so they don't build physical models so much
250
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2427
tako da ne prave fizičke modele
11:01
as to make computer simulations.
251
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2361
koliko kompjuterske simulacije.
11:04
But a computer simulation is a kind of a model.
252
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2839
I to je neka vrsta modela.
11:07
It's a model that's made with mathematics,
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655080
1863
Pravi se pomoću matematike
11:08
and like the physical models of the 19th century,
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3233
i, poput fizičkih modela iz 19. veka,
11:12
it's very important for thinking about causes.
255
660176
3778
veoma je bitan za izučavanje uzroka.
11:15
So one of the big questions
to do with climate change,
to do with climate change,
256
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2615
Jedno od najvećih pitanja
u vezi sa klimatskim promenama
u vezi sa klimatskim promenama
11:18
we have tremendous amounts of evidence
257
666569
1803
jeste ogromna količina dokaza
11:20
that the Earth is warming up.
258
668372
1880
da se Zemlja zagreva.
11:22
This slide here, the black line shows
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670252
2464
Na ovom slajdu crna linija pokazuje
11:24
the measurements that scientists have taken
260
672716
2120
merenja koja su naučnici obavili
11:26
for the last 150 years
261
674836
1963
tokom poslednjih 150 godina
i koja pokazuju da temperatura Zemlje
11:28
showing that the Earth's temperature
262
676799
1410
11:30
has steadily increased,
263
678209
1634
stabilno raste,
11:31
and you can see in particular
that in the last 50 years
that in the last 50 years
264
679843
2846
a posebno se vidi
da je u poslednjih 50 godina
da je u poslednjih 50 godina
11:34
there's been this dramatic increase
265
682689
1764
došlo do naglog porasta
11:36
of nearly one degree centigrade,
266
684453
2340
od skoro jednog stepena Celzijusa
11:38
or almost two degrees Fahrenheit.
267
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2375
ili blizu dva stepena Farenhajta.
11:41
So what, though, is driving that change?
268
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2437
Ali šta je uzrok te promene?
11:43
How can we know what's causing
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2335
Kako da znamo šta izaziva
11:45
the observed warming?
270
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1516
uočeno zagrevanje?
11:47
Well, scientists can model it
271
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1714
Naučnici mogu da naprave model
11:49
using a computer simulation.
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2368
pomoću kompjuterske simulacije.
11:51
So this diagram illustrates a computer simulation
273
699538
2792
Ovaj dijagram ilustruje
kompjutersku simulaciju
kompjutersku simulaciju
11:54
that has looked at all the different factors
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702330
2121
koja je izučavala sve one faktore
11:56
that we know can influence the Earth's climate,
275
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2605
za koje znamo da mogu da utiču
na klimu Zemlje,
na klimu Zemlje,
11:59
so sulfate particles from air pollution,
276
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2752
čestice sulfata iz zagađenog vazduha,
12:01
volcanic dust from volcanic eruptions,
277
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2970
vulkansku prašinu iz vulkanskih erupcija,
12:04
changes in solar radiation,
278
712778
2234
promene u Sunčevom zračenju
12:07
and, of course, greenhouse gases.
279
715012
2378
i gasove sa efektom staklene bašte.
12:09
And they asked the question,
280
717390
1818
Postavili su sledeće pitanje:
12:11
what set of variables put into a model
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3696
koji će skup promenljivih
unetih u određeni model
unetih u određeni model
12:14
will reproduce what we actually see in real life?
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2976
reprodukovati ono što vidimo u stvarnosti?
12:17
So here is the real life in black.
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2020
Stvarnost je prikazana crnom bojom.
12:19
Here's the model in this light gray,
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727900
2280
Model je prikazan svetlosivom,
12:22
and the answer is
285
730180
1560
a odgovor je
12:23
a model that includes, it's the answer E on that SAT,
286
731740
4387
model koji uključuje,
kao odgovor pod E na prijemnom,
kao odgovor pod E na prijemnom,
12:28
all of the above.
287
736127
2141
sve gore navedeno.
12:30
The only way you can reproduce
288
738268
1506
Jedini način da reprodukujete
12:31
the observed temperature measurements
289
739774
1828
zabeležena temperaturna merenja
12:33
is with all of these things put together,
290
741602
1978
je sa svim ovim stvarima zajedno,
uključujući emisije gasova
sa efektom staklene bašte,
sa efektom staklene bašte,
12:35
including greenhouse gases,
291
743580
2139
12:37
and in particular you can see that the increase
292
745719
2551
i prevashodno možete videti da rast
12:40
in greenhouse gases tracks
293
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1884
gasova sa efektom staklene bašte prati
12:42
this very dramatic increase in temperature
294
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2206
vrlo dramatičan rast temperature
12:44
over the last 50 years.
295
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1480
u proteklih 50 godina.
12:45
And so this is why climate scientists say
296
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2434
I zbog toga klimatolozi kažu
12:48
it's not just that we know that
climate change is happening,
climate change is happening,
297
756274
3108
"ne samo da znamo da se
klimatska promena dešava,
klimatska promena dešava,
12:51
we know that greenhouse gases are a major part
298
759382
2768
znamo da su gasovi sa efektom
staklene bašte veliki deo
staklene bašte veliki deo
12:54
of the reason why.
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2730
uzroka."
12:56
So now because there all these different things
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2388
Zato zbog svih tih različitih stvari
12:59
that scientists do,
301
767268
1489
koje naučnici rade,
13:00
the philosopher Paul Feyerabend famously said,
302
768757
3486
filozof Pol Fajerabend je rekao čuvenu:
13:04
"The only principle in science
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1626
"Jedini princip u nauci
13:05
that doesn't inhibit progress is: anything goes."
304
773869
3979
koji ne sputava napredak je:
Sve može da prođe."
Sve može da prođe."
13:09
Now this quotation has often
been taken out of context,
been taken out of context,
305
777848
2616
Ovaj citat je često vađen iz konteksta,
13:12
because Feyerabend was not actually saying
306
780464
2118
jer Fajerabend nije zapravo rekao
13:14
that in science anything goes.
307
782582
1950
da u nauci sve može da prođe.
13:16
What he was saying was,
308
784532
1344
Ono što je govorio je,
13:17
actually the full quotation is,
309
785876
2024
zapravo pun citat je:
13:19
"If you press me to say
310
787900
2090
"Ako me pritisnete da kažem
13:21
what is the method of science,
311
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1646
koji je naučni metod,
13:23
I would have to say: anything goes."
312
791636
3629
morao bih reći: Sve može da prođe."
On je pokušao da kaže
13:27
What he was trying to say
313
795265
1078
13:28
is that scientists do a lot of different things.
314
796343
2567
da naučnici rade
mnogo različitih stvari.
mnogo različitih stvari.
13:30
Scientists are creative.
315
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2308
Naučnici su kreativni.
13:33
But then this pushes the question back:
316
801218
2110
Ako onda to preokreće pitanje:
13:35
If scientists don't use a single method,
317
803328
3471
ako naučnici ne koriste samo jedan metod,
13:38
then how do they decide
318
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1899
kako onda odluče
13:40
what's right and what's wrong?
319
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1458
šta je neispravno, a šta nije?
13:42
And who judges?
320
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1894
I ko će da presudi?
13:44
And the answer is, scientists judge,
321
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2080
I odgovor je, naučnici presuđuju,
13:46
and they judge by judging evidence.
322
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2883
i sude prema dokazima.
13:49
Scientists collect evidence in many different ways,
323
817013
3409
Naučnici skupljaju dokaze na mnogo
različitih načina,
različitih načina,
13:52
but however they collect it,
324
820422
1622
ali kako god da ih skupe,
13:54
they have to subject it to scrutiny.
325
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2577
moraju da ih stave pod lupu.
13:56
And this led the sociologist Robert Merton
326
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2560
I ovo je navelo sociologa Roberta Mertona
13:59
to focus on this question of how scientists
327
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2180
da se fokusira na to pitanje kako naučnici
14:01
scrutinize data and evidence,
328
829361
1679
posmatraju podatke i dokaze,
14:03
and he said they do it in a way he called
329
831040
2808
i rekao je da oni to rade na način
koji je nazvao
koji je nazvao
14:05
"organized skepticism."
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833848
1919
"organizovani skepticizam."
14:07
And by that he meant it's organized
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835767
1884
Time je mislio da je organizovan
14:09
because they do it collectively,
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837651
1478
jer to rade kolektivno,
14:11
they do it as a group,
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839129
1629
rade kao grupa,
14:12
and skepticism, because they do it from a position
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840758
2816
i skepticizam, jer to rade sa pozicije
14:15
of distrust.
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1454
nepoverenja.
14:17
That is to say, the burden of proof
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845028
1962
Drugačije rečeno, teret dokazivanja
14:18
is on the person with a novel claim.
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2481
je na osobi sa novom tvrdnjom.
14:21
And in this sense, science
is intrinsically conservative.
is intrinsically conservative.
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849471
3143
I u ovom smislu nauka je
suštinski konzervativna.
suštinski konzervativna.
14:24
It's quite hard to persuade the scientific community
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2572
Veoma je teško ubediti naučnu zajednicu
14:27
to say, "Yes, we know something, this is true."
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855186
3711
da kaže: "Da, mi znamo nešto,
ovo je tačno."
ovo je tačno."
14:30
So despite the popularity of the concept
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858897
2496
Zato uprkos popularnosti koncepta
14:33
of paradigm shifts,
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861393
1597
promena paradigme,
14:34
what we find is that actually,
343
862990
1284
ono što nalazimo je da su zapravo,
14:36
really major changes in scientific thinking
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864274
2785
veoma velike promene
u naučnom razmišljanju
u naučnom razmišljanju
14:39
are relatively rare in the history of science.
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867059
3720
relativno retke u istoriji nauke.
14:42
So finally that brings us to one more idea:
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870779
3563
To nas najzad dovodi do još jedne ideje:
14:46
If scientists judge evidence collectively,
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874342
3708
Ako naučnici kolektivno prosuđuju dokaz,
14:50
this has led historians to focus on the question
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878050
2562
ovo je navelo istoričare
da se fokusiraju na pitanje
da se fokusiraju na pitanje
14:52
of consensus,
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880612
1419
konsenzusa,
14:54
and to say that at the end of the day,
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882031
1895
i da kažu da na kraju dana,
14:55
what science is,
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883926
1934
ono što je nauka,
14:57
what scientific knowledge is,
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885860
1670
ono što je naučno znanje,
14:59
is the consensus of the scientific experts
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887530
3379
je konsenzus naučnih stručnjaka
koji su kroz ovaj proces
ogranizovanog posmatranja,
ogranizovanog posmatranja,
15:02
who through this process of organized scrutiny,
354
890909
2154
15:05
collective scrutiny,
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893063
2305
kolektivnog posmatranja,
15:07
have judged the evidence
356
895368
1242
presudili dokaze
15:08
and come to a conclusion about it,
357
896610
2797
i došli do zaključka,
15:11
either yea or nay.
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899407
2477
bilo za ili protiv.
Zato možemo razmišljati
o naučničkom znanju
o naučničkom znanju
15:13
So we can think of scientific knowledge
359
901884
1724
15:15
as a consensus of experts.
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903608
2052
kao o konsenzusu stručnjaka.
15:17
We can also think of science as being
361
905660
1772
Možemo razmišljati o nauci
15:19
a kind of a jury,
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907432
1578
kao o nekoj vrsti porote,
15:21
except it's a very special kind of jury.
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909010
2514
s tim da je veoma posebna vrsta porote.
15:23
It's not a jury of your peers,
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911524
2104
To nije porota vama jednakih,
15:25
it's a jury of geeks.
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913628
1896
to je porota štrebera.
15:27
It's a jury of men and women with Ph.D.s,
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915524
3634
To je porota muškaraca i žena
sa doktoratima,
sa doktoratima,
15:31
and unlike a conventional jury,
367
919158
2442
i za razliku od konvencionalne porote,
15:33
which has only two choices,
368
921600
1690
koja ima samo dve opcije,
15:35
guilty or not guilty,
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923290
2685
kriv i nije kriv,
15:37
the scientific jury actually has a number of choices.
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925975
3401
naučnička porota zapravo ima
mnoštvo opcija.
mnoštvo opcija.
15:41
Scientists can say yes, something's true.
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929376
2784
Naučnici mogu reći da, nešto je istinito.
15:44
Scientists can say no, it's false.
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932160
2580
Naučnici mogu reći ne, to je neistinito.
15:46
Or, they can say, well it might be true
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934740
2540
Ili, mogu reći, pa to bi moglo biti istina
15:49
but we need to work more
and collect more evidence.
and collect more evidence.
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937280
3044
ali moramo još raditi i prikupiti
još dokaza.
još dokaza.
Ili, mogu reći da bi moglo biti istina,
15:52
Or, they can say it might be true,
375
940324
1616
15:53
but we don't know how to answer the question
376
941940
1700
ali ne znamo kako da odgovorimo na pitanje
15:55
and we're going to put it aside
377
943640
1310
i odložićemo ga
15:56
and maybe we'll come back to it later.
378
944950
2923
i možda ćemo vratiti na sto kasnije.
15:59
That's what scientists call "intractable."
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947873
4002
To je ono što naučnici nazivaju
zavrzlamom.
zavrzlamom.
16:03
But this leads us to one final problem:
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951875
2606
Ali ovo dovodi do finalnog problema:
16:06
If science is what scientists say it is,
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954481
2938
ako je nauka ono što naučnici kažu da je,
16:09
then isn't that just an appeal to authority?
382
957419
2541
zar nije to onda samo poziv na autoritet?
16:11
And weren't we all taught in school
383
959960
1062
I zar nismo svi učeni u školi
16:13
that the appeal to authority is a logical fallacy?
384
961022
3227
da je pozivanje na autoritet
logička greška?
logička greška?
16:16
Well, here's the paradox of modern science,
385
964249
3032
Pa, eto ga paradoks moderne nauke,
16:19
the paradox of the conclusion I think historians
386
967281
2272
paradoks zaključka do kojeg mislim
da su istoričari
da su istoričari
16:21
and philosophers and sociologists have come to,
387
969553
2601
i filozofi i sociolozi došli,
16:24
that actually science is the appeal to authority,
388
972154
3501
da je nauka zapravo poziv na autoritet,
16:27
but it's not the authority of the individual,
389
975655
3776
ali nije poziv na autoritet individue,
16:31
no matter how smart that individual is,
390
979431
2399
bez obzira koliko je pametna ta individua,
16:33
like Plato or Socrates or Einstein.
391
981830
3865
poput Platona ili Sokrata ili Ajnštajna.
16:37
It's the authority of the collective community.
392
985695
3114
To je autoritet kolektivne zajednice.
16:40
You can think of it is a kind of wisdom of the crowd,
393
988809
2986
Možete razmišljati o ovome
kao o mudrosti rulje,
kao o mudrosti rulje,
16:43
but a very special kind of crowd.
394
991795
4126
ali vrlo posebne rulje.
16:47
Science does appeal to authority,
395
995921
1890
Nauka se zaista poziva na autoritet,
16:49
but it's not based on any individual,
396
997811
2050
ali on nije zasnovan
na bilo kom pojedincu,
na bilo kom pojedincu,
16:51
no matter how smart that individual may be.
397
999861
2586
bez obzira na to
koliko je ta osoba pametna.
koliko je ta osoba pametna.
16:54
It's based on the collective wisdom,
398
1002447
1751
Zasnovan je na kolektivnoj mudrosti,
16:56
the collective knowledge, the collective work,
399
1004198
2642
kolektivnom znanju, kolektivnom radu,
16:58
of all of the scientists who have worked
400
1006840
1898
svih naučnika koji su radili
17:00
on a particular problem.
401
1008738
2717
na konkretnom problemu.
17:03
Scientists have a kind of culture of collective distrust,
402
1011455
2796
Naučnici imaju neku vrstu kulture
kolektivnog nepoverenja,
kolektivnog nepoverenja,
17:06
this "show me" culture,
403
1014251
2200
tu kulturu "pokaži mi",
17:08
illustrated by this nice woman here
404
1016451
1950
ilustrovanu ovom finom ženom
17:10
showing her colleagues her evidence.
405
1018401
3082
koja izlaže kolegama svoje dokaze.
Naravno, ovi ljudi baš i ne izgledaju
kao naučnici,
kao naučnici,
17:13
Of course, these people don't
really look like scientists,
really look like scientists,
406
1021483
1857
17:15
because they're much too happy.
407
1023340
1986
jer su suviše veseli.
17:17
(Laughter)
408
1025326
4012
(Smeh)
17:21
Okay, so that brings me to my final point.
409
1029338
4322
OK, ovo me dovodi do moje konačne poente.
17:25
Most of us get up in the morning.
410
1033660
2648
Većina nas ustaje ujutru.
Većina nas veruje svojim automobilima.
17:28
Most of us trust our cars.
411
1036308
1410
17:29
Well, see, now I'm thinking, I'm in Manhattan,
412
1037718
1542
Vidite, setila sam se
da sam na Menhetnu,
da sam na Menhetnu,
17:31
this is a bad analogy,
413
1039260
1298
ovo je loša analogija,
17:32
but most Americans who don't live in Manhattan
414
1040558
2824
ali većina Amerikanaca koji ne žive
na Menhetnu
na Menhetnu
17:35
get up in the morning and get in their cars
415
1043382
1738
ustaju ujutru i sedaju u svoja kola
17:37
and turn on that ignition, and their cars work,
416
1045120
2529
upale auto, i njihova kola rade,
17:39
and they work incredibly well.
417
1047649
2001
i to rade zapanjujuće dobro.
17:41
The modern automobile hardly ever breaks down.
418
1049650
2715
Moderni automobil se skoro nikad ne kvari.
17:44
So why is that? Why do cars work so well?
419
1052365
2783
Zašto je to tako?
Zašto automobili rade tako dobro?
Zašto automobili rade tako dobro?
17:47
It's not because of the genius of Henry Ford
420
1055148
2504
To nije zbog genija Henri Forda
17:49
or Karl Benz or even Elon Musk.
421
1057652
3091
ili Karla Benca ili čak Elona Maska.
17:52
It's because the modern automobile
422
1060743
2142
To je zato što je moderni automobil
17:54
is the product of more than 100 years of work
423
1062885
5034
proizvod preko 100 godina rada
17:59
by hundreds and thousands
424
1067919
1590
stotina i hiljada
18:01
and tens of thousands of people.
425
1069509
1336
i desetina hiljada ljudi.
18:02
The modern automobile is the product
426
1070845
2111
Moderni automobil je proizvod
18:04
of the collected work and wisdom and experience
427
1072956
2789
kolektivnog rada i mudrosti i iskustva
18:07
of every man and woman who has ever worked
428
1075745
2347
svakog čoveka i žene koji su ikada radili
18:10
on a car,
429
1078092
1608
na automobilu,
18:11
and the reliability of the technology is the result
430
1079700
2915
i pouzdanost tehnologije je posledica
18:14
of that accumulated effort.
431
1082615
2683
akumuliranog truda.
18:17
We benefit not just from the genius of Benz
432
1085298
2857
Imamo korist ne samo od genija Benca
18:20
and Ford and Musk
433
1088155
1066
i Forda i Maska,
18:21
but from the collective intelligence and hard work
434
1089221
2768
već i od kolektivne inteligencije
i vrednog rada
i vrednog rada
18:23
of all of the people who have worked
435
1091989
2251
svih ljudi koji su radili
18:26
on the modern car.
436
1094240
1670
na modernom automobilu.
18:27
And the same is true of science,
437
1095910
2050
Isto važi i za nauku,
18:29
only science is even older.
438
1097960
2844
samo što je nauka još starija.
18:32
Our basis for trust in science is actually the same
439
1100804
2574
Osnova našeg poverenja u nauku
je zapravo ista
je zapravo ista
18:35
as our basis in trust in technology,
440
1103378
2674
kao i osnova našeg poverenja
u tehnologiju,
u tehnologiju,
18:38
and the same as our basis for trust in anything,
441
1106052
3987
i ista kao i osnova našeg poverenja
u bilo šta,
u bilo šta,
18:42
namely, experience.
442
1110039
2278
kao na primer, iskustvo.
18:44
But it shouldn't be blind trust
443
1112317
1844
Ali to ne treba biti slepo poverenje
18:46
any more than we would have blind trust in anything.
444
1114161
2760
ništa više nego što bismo imali
slepo poverenje u bilo šta.
slepo poverenje u bilo šta.
18:48
Our trust in science, like science itself,
445
1116921
2841
Naše poverenje u nauku, kao i sama nauka,
18:51
should be based on evidence,
446
1119762
1913
treba biti zasnovano na dokazima,
18:53
and that means that scientists
447
1121675
1502
i to znači da naučnici
18:55
have to become better communicators.
448
1123177
2048
moraju postati bolji komunikatori.
18:57
They have to explain to us not just what they know
449
1125225
2887
Moraju nam objasniti ne samo šta znaju
19:00
but how they know it,
450
1128112
1728
već i kako su to saznali,
19:01
and it means that we have
to become better listeners.
to become better listeners.
451
1129840
3890
i to znači da moramo postati
bolji slušaoci.
bolji slušaoci.
19:05
Thank you very much.
452
1133730
1419
Hvala vam mnogo.
19:07
(Applause)
453
1135149
2303
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Naomi Oreskes - Historian of scienceNaomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial.
Why you should listen
Noami Oreskes is a professor of the History of Science and an affiliated professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University. She received her PhD at Stanford in 1990 in the Graduate Special Program in Geological Research and History of Science.
In her 2004 paper published in Science, "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Oreskes analyzed nearly 1,000 scientific journals to directly assess the magnitude of scientific consensus around anthropogenic climate change. The paper was famously cited by Al Gore in his film An Inconvenient Truth and led Oreskes to testify in front of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.
Oreskes is the co-author of the 2010 book Merchants of Doubt, which looks at how the tobacco industry attempted to cast doubt on the link between smoking and lung cancer, and the 2014 book The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future, which looks back at the present from the year 2093. Both are written with Erik M. Conway.
Naomi Oreskes | Speaker | TED.com