TED2017
Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring
伊隆·马斯克: 我们创造的未来……和无聊公司
Filmed:
Readability: 4.1
16,113,964 views
伊隆·马斯克与TED管理者克里斯·安德森讨论了他在洛杉矶地下修建隧道的新计划， 最新款的特斯拉，SpaceX的回收火箭，未来移民火星的动机。
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneur
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Chris Anderson:
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
0
520
3016
Chris Anderson: 伊隆，欢迎回到TED来。
00:15
It's great to have you here.
1
3560
1376
很高兴你能来。
00:16
Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
2
4960
1576
伊隆： 感谢邀请。
00:18
CA: So, in the next half hour or so,
3
6560
2856
CA：嗯，在接下来的半个小时，
00:21
we're going to spend some time
4
9440
1816
我们会花点时间
00:23
exploring your vision for what
an exciting future might look like,
an exciting future might look like,
5
11280
3896
来探索一下你所构想的
激动人心的未来，
激动人心的未来，
00:27
which I guess makes
the first question a little ironic:
the first question a little ironic:
6
15200
4096
这可能会让我的第一个问题
听起来有点讽刺：
听起来有点讽刺：
00:31
Why are you boring?
7
19320
1736
为什么你觉得无聊？
00:33
EM: Yeah.
8
21080
1216
EM: 是呀。
00:34
I ask myself that frequently.
9
22320
1550
我经常这么问自己。
00:39
We're trying to dig a hole under LA,
10
27240
4136
我们打算挖一条隧道穿过洛杉矶，
00:43
and this is to create the beginning
11
31400
3176
这是我们计划的开始
00:46
of what will hopefully
be a 3D network of tunnels
be a 3D network of tunnels
12
34600
4120
我们有希望打造一个
地下三维管道
地下三维管道
00:51
to alleviate congestion.
13
39520
2216
来缓解交通阻塞。
00:53
So right now, one of the most
soul-destroying things is traffic.
soul-destroying things is traffic.
14
41760
5536
目前来看，最让人精神疲惫的
事情之一就是堵车。
事情之一就是堵车。
00:59
It affects people
in every part of the world.
in every part of the world.
15
47320
2856
这影响世界上每个角落的人。
01:02
It takes away so much of your life.
16
50200
3816
它从你生命中拿走了太多时间。
01:06
It's horrible.
17
54040
1976
太可怕了。
01:08
It's particularly horrible in LA.
18
56040
1616
在洛杉矶尤其可怕。
01:09
(Laughter)
19
57680
2656
（笑声）
01:12
CA: I think you've brought with you
20
60360
1936
CA: 我想你带来了
01:14
the first visualization
that's been shown of this.
that's been shown of this.
21
62320
2455
这项工程演示视频的
首次公开展示。
首次公开展示。
01:16
Can I show this?
22
64800
1336
我能播放么？
01:18
EM: Yeah, absolutely.
So this is the first time --
So this is the first time --
23
66160
2696
EM: 可以，当然可以。
这是第一次——
这是第一次——
01:20
Just to show what we're talking about.
24
68880
1856
就展示下我们正在聊的。
01:22
So a couple of key things
that are important
that are important
25
70760
2136
有几个关键的点
01:24
in having a 3D tunnel network.
26
72920
3896
对于构建3D隧道特别重要。
01:28
First of all, you have to be able
27
76840
1616
首先，你必须能够
01:30
to integrate the entrance
and exit of the tunnel
and exit of the tunnel
28
78480
2256
整合隧道的入口和出口
01:32
seamlessly into the fabric of the city.
29
80760
2056
无缝的整合到城市交通里。
01:34
So by having an elevator,
30
82840
3656
通过利用电梯，
01:38
sort of a car skate,
that's on an elevator,
that's on an elevator,
31
86520
4776
一个给汽车用的滑板，
滑板放在电梯里，
滑板放在电梯里，
01:43
you can integrate the entrance
and exits to the tunnel network
and exits to the tunnel network
32
91320
3936
我们就可以将隧道的入口
和出口跟公路对接起来
和出口跟公路对接起来
01:47
just by using two parking spaces.
33
95280
2240
代价仅仅是两个停车位的面积。
01:50
And then the car gets on a skate.
34
98840
2096
然后汽车就在滑板上，
01:52
There's no speed limit here,
35
100960
1376
隧道里没有限速，
01:54
so we're designing this to be able
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
36
102360
5016
所以我们设计时速是
每小时200公里。
每小时200公里。
01:59
CA: How much?
37
107400
1216
CA：多少？
02:00
EM: 200 kilometers an hour,
or about 130 miles per hour.
or about 130 miles per hour.
38
108640
3320
EM：每小时200公里，
也就是每小时130英里。
也就是每小时130英里。
02:04
So you should be able
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
39
112800
6216
所以打个比方，如果你从
Westwood到洛杉矶机场
Westwood到洛杉矶机场
02:11
in six minutes -- five, six minutes.
40
119040
2256
只需要五到六分钟。
02:13
(Applause)
41
121320
4336
（掌声）
02:17
CA: So possibly, initially done,
42
125680
1576
CA：所以有可能，完工之后，
02:19
it's like on a sort
of toll road-type basis.
of toll road-type basis.
43
127280
2296
有点类似收费高速路的模式。
02:21
EM: Yeah.
44
129600
1216
EM：对的。
02:22
CA: Which, I guess,
alleviates some traffic
alleviates some traffic
45
130840
2056
CA：我猜这将也会缓解
02:24
from the surface streets as well.
46
132920
1696
地面交通的压力。
02:26
EM: So, I don't know
if people noticed it in the video,
if people noticed it in the video,
47
134640
2616
EM：嗯，我不知道大家是否
注意到视频中的一个细节，
注意到视频中的一个细节，
02:29
but there's no real limit
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
48
137280
5136
实际上我们可以继续增加
隧道的层数。
隧道的层数。
02:34
You can go much further deep
than you can go up.
than you can go up.
49
142440
2816
往下挖比往上开拓要容易得多。
02:37
The deepest mines are much deeper
than the tallest buildings are tall,
than the tallest buildings are tall,
50
145280
4176
实际上最深的矿井比最高的
摩天大楼要长多了，
摩天大楼要长多了，
02:41
so you can alleviate any arbitrary
level of urban congestion
level of urban congestion
51
149480
5256
所以我们可以利用这种
立体隧道网
立体隧道网
02:46
with a 3D tunnel network.
52
154760
1296
解决任意级别的交通拥堵问题。
02:48
This is a very important point.
53
156080
1536
这是个非常重要的点。
02:49
So a key rebuttal to the tunnels
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
54
157640
6376
所以这种隧道的一个争论点是
如果我们加了一层隧道，
如果我们加了一层隧道，
02:56
that will simply alleviate congestion,
it will get used up,
it will get used up,
55
164040
2776
那么可以轻微缓解交通拥堵，
但是很快拥堵又起来了，
但是很快拥堵又起来了，
02:58
and then you'll be back where you started,
back with congestion.
back with congestion.
56
166840
3296
这个时候大家又回到原点，
又开始拥堵。
又开始拥堵。
03:02
But you can go to any
arbitrary number of tunnels,
arbitrary number of tunnels,
57
170160
2416
但是现在我们可以增加
任意数量的隧道，
任意数量的隧道，
03:04
any number of levels.
58
172600
1336
没有层数限制。
03:05
CA: But people -- seen traditionally,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
59
173960
3536
CA：但是人们——传统上看到的是，
隧道挖起来特别烧钱，
隧道挖起来特别烧钱，
03:09
and that would block this idea.
60
177520
1776
这回导致这个想法搁浅。
03:11
EM: Yeah.
61
179320
1696
EM：对的。
03:13
Well, they're right.
62
181040
1216
嗯，他们是对的。
03:14
To give you an example,
the LA subway extension,
the LA subway extension,
63
182280
3776
我来举一个例子，
洛杉矶地铁线扩建，
洛杉矶地铁线扩建，
03:18
which is -- I think it's
a two-and-a-half mile extension
a two-and-a-half mile extension
64
186080
3656
大概——我想大概是扩建了
2.5英里那么长
2.5英里那么长
03:21
that was just completed
for two billion dollars.
for two billion dollars.
65
189760
2239
工程花费达到了20亿美元。
03:24
So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile
to do the subway extension in LA.
to do the subway extension in LA.
66
192023
5393
所以在洛杉矶地区建立隧道
成本大概10亿一英里。
成本大概10亿一英里。
03:29
And this is not the highest
utility subway in the world.
utility subway in the world.
67
197440
3976
而且这还不是世界上最昂贵的
通勤地铁线路。
通勤地铁线路。
03:33
So yeah, it's quite difficult
to dig tunnels normally.
to dig tunnels normally.
68
201440
4496
所以是的，通常情况下
挖隧道很难。
挖隧道很难。
03:37
I think we need to have
at least a tenfold improvement
at least a tenfold improvement
69
205960
3176
我想我们必须能够至少
将隧道的建设成本
将隧道的建设成本
03:41
in the cost per mile of tunneling.
70
209160
2320
降低十倍以上才行。
03:44
CA: And how could you achieve that?
71
212160
1680
CA：那么你怎么做到呢？
03:48
EM: Actually, if you just do two things,
72
216240
2056
EM：实际上，如果你做两件事情，
03:50
you can get to approximately
an order of magnitude improvement,
an order of magnitude improvement,
73
218320
3336
就已经可以得到接近
一个数量级的改进，
一个数量级的改进，
03:53
and I think you can go beyond that.
74
221680
2176
而且我觉得可以做到更多。
03:55
So the first thing to do
is to cut the tunnel diameter
is to cut the tunnel diameter
75
223880
4256
第一件事是减少隧道的直径
04:00
by a factor of two or more.
76
228160
1616
缩减到正常的二分之一。
04:01
So a single road lane tunnel
according to regulations
according to regulations
77
229800
3976
法律规定一条隧的宽度
04:05
has to be 26 feet,
maybe 28 feet in diameter
maybe 28 feet in diameter
78
233800
2856
至少26英尺，
可能是28英尺
可能是28英尺
04:08
to allow for crashes
and emergency vehicles
and emergency vehicles
79
236680
3176
来避免车辆剐蹭到隧道，
允许救护车通过
允许救护车通过
04:11
and sufficient ventilation
for combustion engine cars.
for combustion engine cars.
80
239880
4256
同时为内燃机车的发动机
留足充分的通风机制。
留足充分的通风机制。
04:16
But if you shrink that diameter
to what we're attempting,
to what we're attempting,
81
244160
3576
但是如果你将直径缩减到
我们目前尝试的那样，
我们目前尝试的那样，
04:19
which is 12 feet, which is plenty
to get an electric skate through,
to get an electric skate through,
82
247760
3656
只有12英尺，这个宽度已经
足够一个汽车滑板通过，
足够一个汽车滑板通过，
04:23
you drop the diameter by a factor of two
83
251440
3216
这样你就将直径减少了两倍
04:26
and the cross-sectional area
by a factor of four,
by a factor of four,
84
254680
3896
这样纵切面就减少了四倍，
04:30
and the tunneling cost scales
with the cross-sectional area.
with the cross-sectional area.
85
258600
2856
而隧道建设成本跟隧道的
纵切面积有直接关系。
纵切面积有直接关系。
04:33
So that's roughly a half-order
of magnitude improvement right there.
of magnitude improvement right there.
86
261480
3216
所以这一条就缩减了
大概半个数量级的成本。
大概半个数量级的成本。
04:36
Then tunneling machines currently tunnel
for half the time, then they stop,
for half the time, then they stop,
87
264720
4896
目前我们在挖隧道的流程是，
挖掘机挖一段时间就停下来，
挖掘机挖一段时间就停下来，
04:41
and then the rest of the time
is putting in reinforcements
is putting in reinforcements
88
269640
3176
等着隧道的阻隔墙加固完成，
04:44
for the tunnel wall.
89
272840
1296
再继续。
04:46
So if you design the machine instead
90
274160
2216
所以如果你能够重新设计机器，
04:48
to do continuous
tunneling and reinforcing,
tunneling and reinforcing,
91
276400
2336
能够同步进行挖掘和加固，
04:50
that will give you
a factor of two improvement.
a factor of two improvement.
92
278760
2216
那么能得到两倍的改进。
04:53
Combine that and that's a factor of eight.
93
281000
2216
加起来就是8倍的改进了。
04:55
Also these machines are far from being
at their power or thermal limits,
at their power or thermal limits,
94
283240
4656
而且这些机器还远远没有
达到热力学定律的极限，
达到热力学定律的极限，
04:59
so you can jack up the power
to the machine substantially.
to the machine substantially.
95
287920
3056
所以你可以加大机器的马力。
05:03
I think you can get
at least a factor of two,
at least a factor of two,
96
291000
2136
我觉得至少能够再提高一倍。
05:05
maybe a factor of four or five
improvement on top of that.
improvement on top of that.
97
293160
4176
或许能够在之前的基础上
再提高四五倍。
再提高四五倍。
05:09
So I think there's a fairly
straightforward series of steps
straightforward series of steps
98
297360
4216
所以我觉得现在已经有了
比较明确的步骤
比较明确的步骤
05:13
to get somewhere in excess
of an order of magnitude improvement
of an order of magnitude improvement
99
301600
2976
在缩减单位长度成本上能够做到
05:16
in the cost per mile,
100
304600
1736
一个数量级的改进，
05:18
and our target actually is --
101
306360
2936
而我们的目标实际上是——
05:21
we've got a pet snail called Gary,
102
309320
2816
我们做了一个玩具蜗牛叫Gary，
05:24
this is from Gary the snail
from "South Park,"
from "South Park,"
103
312160
2536
名字来自《南方公园》，
05:26
I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."
104
314720
2936
我是说，抱歉，来自《海绵宝宝》。
05:29
(Laughter)
105
317680
1576
（笑声）
05:31
So Gary is capable of --
106
319280
4416
现在Gary能够做到——
05:35
currently he's capable
of going 14 times faster
of going 14 times faster
107
323720
4096
现在它能够做到比现在
慢吞吞的隧道机器
慢吞吞的隧道机器
05:39
than a tunnel-boring machine.
108
327840
1776
快14倍以上。
05:41
(Laughter)
109
329640
2776
（笑声）
05:44
CA: You want to beat Gary.
110
332440
1776
CA：你希望超过Gary。
05:46
EM: We want to beat Gary.
111
334240
1296
EM：“我们”想要超过Gary。
05:47
(Laughter)
112
335560
1536
（笑声）
05:49
He's not a patient little fellow,
113
337120
2216
他不是一个安静的小随从，
05:51
and that will be victory.
114
339360
3096
会迎来胜利的。
05:54
Victory is beating the snail.
115
342480
1400
胜利就是打败这个蜗牛。
05:57
CA: But a lot of people imagining,
dreaming about future cities,
dreaming about future cities,
116
345280
3056
CA：但是很多人梦想着，
在构想未来城市的时候，
在构想未来城市的时候，
06:00
they imagine that actually
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
117
348360
3896
他们想的实际上是飞行汽车，
无人机，等等。
无人机，等等。
06:04
You go aboveground.
118
352280
2216
人们在地面上活动。
06:06
Why isn't that a better solution?
119
354520
1816
为什么那不是更好的方法？
06:08
You save all that tunneling cost.
120
356360
1976
这样就完全没有挖隧道的开销了。
06:10
EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.
121
358360
2216
EM：对。我很喜欢会飞的东西。
06:12
Obviously, I do rockets,
so I like things that fly.
so I like things that fly.
122
360600
3856
很显然的，我研究火箭，
我喜欢会飞的东西。
我喜欢会飞的东西。
06:16
This is not some inherent bias
against flying things,
against flying things,
123
364480
2936
虽然我没有任何对于
飞行物的偏见，
飞行物的偏见，
06:19
but there is a challenge with flying cars
124
367440
3056
但是飞行汽车这个概念有个问题
06:22
in that they'll be quite noisy,
125
370520
3296
就是一定会很吵，
06:25
the wind force generated
will be very high.
will be very high.
126
373840
2560
产生的风也会非常大。
06:32
Let's just say that if something's
flying over your head,
flying over your head,
127
380000
2696
就简单想象一下如果有什么东西
飞过你的头顶，
飞过你的头顶，
06:34
a whole bunch of flying cars
going all over the place,
going all over the place,
128
382720
2560
很多飞行汽车
从你头上穿过，
从你头上穿过，
06:38
that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
129
386440
4616
这可不是能让你减少焦虑的场面。
06:43
(Laughter)
130
391080
1320
（笑声）
06:45
You don't think to yourself,
"Well, I feel better about today."
"Well, I feel better about today."
131
393200
3560
你肯定不会想，
“嗯，我今天感觉不错。”
“嗯，我今天感觉不错。”
06:50
You're thinking,
"Did they service their hubcap,
"Did they service their hubcap,
132
398520
2616
你会想，“这些车轮胎都拧紧了么”
06:53
or is it going to come off
and guillotine me?"
and guillotine me?"
133
401160
2896
“会不会掉下来砸烂我的头？”
06:56
Things like that.
134
404080
1680
类似这样。
07:00
CA: So you've got this vision
135
408320
1576
CA：所以你对未来的构想
07:01
of future cities with these rich,
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
136
409920
5296
就是城市地下布满这样的
立体交通隧道。
立体交通隧道。
07:07
Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?
137
415240
2016
这跟Hyperloop有关联么？
07:09
Could you apply these tunnels
to use for this Hyperloop idea
to use for this Hyperloop idea
138
417280
3536
你是不是可以将隧道用在
几年前你公开出来的
几年前你公开出来的
07:12
you released a few years ago.
139
420840
1381
Hyperloop的想法上。
07:14
EM: Yeah, so we've been
sort of puttering around
sort of puttering around
140
422840
3216
EM：对，我们在Hyperloop
这件事情上
这件事情上
07:18
with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.
141
426080
2616
已经游手好闲了一段时间。
07:20
We built a Hyperloop test track
adjacent to SpaceX,
adjacent to SpaceX,
142
428720
3816
我们在SpaceX旁边建立了
一个Hyperloop实验轨道
一个Hyperloop实验轨道
07:24
just for a student competition,
143
432560
2136
用来做学生竞赛用，
07:26
to encourage innovative
ideas in transport.
ideas in transport.
144
434720
3016
用来激励在交通上的创新想法。
07:29
And it actually ends up being
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
145
437760
5016
实际上，我们最后做出来了
世界上最大的真空管道
世界上最大的真空管道
07:34
after the Large Hadron Collider,
146
442800
1920
仅次于LHC对撞机，
07:37
by volume.
147
445800
1200
从规模上说。
07:41
So it was quite fun to do that,
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
148
449320
5456
这件事情特别有意思，
不过只算是业余爱好，
不过只算是业余爱好，
07:46
and then we think we might --
149
454800
3696
后来我们想或许——
07:50
so we've built a little pusher car
to push the student pods,
to push the student pods,
150
458520
4360
所以我们建造了一个推进器
来推进学生做的胶囊仓，
来推进学生做的胶囊仓，
07:56
but we're going to try seeing
how fast we can make the pusher go
how fast we can make the pusher go
151
464440
3936
而我们打算试试看推进器
如果没有载重
如果没有载重
08:00
if it's not pushing something.
152
468400
1429
自己能够推进多快。
08:02
So we're cautiously optimistic
153
470720
2336
我们谨慎乐观的认为
08:05
we'll be able to be faster
than the world's fastest bullet train
than the world's fastest bullet train
154
473080
5016
我们将会比目前世界上
最快的子弹头列车更快
最快的子弹头列车更快
08:10
even in a .8-mile stretch.
155
478120
2256
即使在0.8英里的长度上。
08:12
CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
156
480400
2536
CA：哇，刹车不错嘛。
08:14
EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.
157
482960
2256
EM：对，我是说，它 —— 对。
08:17
It's either going to smash
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
158
485240
4616
它没有直接撞成碎片，但是
速度已经非常快了。
速度已经非常快了。
08:21
CA: But you can picture,
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
159
489880
3576
CA：但是你已经可以构想
以后，Hyperloop在隧道里，
以后，Hyperloop在隧道里，
08:25
running quite long distances.
160
493480
1816
做长距离运输。
08:27
EM: Exactly.
161
495320
1696
EM：千真万确。
08:29
And looking at tunneling technology,
162
497040
1776
看看现在的隧道构造技术，
08:30
it turns out that
in order to make a tunnel,
in order to make a tunnel,
163
498840
2536
事实上为了挖一条隧道，
08:33
you have to --
164
501400
1200
你必须 ——
08:36
In order to seal against the water table,
165
504320
2376
为了能够隔绝地下水渗透，
08:38
you've got to typically design
a tunnel wall to be good
a tunnel wall to be good
166
506720
4656
你通常需要将隧道壁
设计足够硬
设计足够硬
08:43
to about five or six atmospheres.
167
511400
2320
能够承受五到六个大气压。
08:47
So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,
168
515159
3017
而真空状态只需要承受一个大气压，
08:50
or near-vacuum.
169
518200
1416
或者近似真空。
08:51
So actually, it sort of turns out
that automatically,
that automatically,
170
519640
4416
所以实际上，基本上是自然而然地，
08:56
if you build a tunnel that is good enough
to resist the water table,
to resist the water table,
171
524080
3976
如果你构造一条隧道足够
承受地下水的压力，
承受地下水的压力，
09:00
it is automatically
capable of holding vacuum.
capable of holding vacuum.
172
528080
2416
保持真空就变成自然而然的事情。
09:02
CA: Huh.
173
530520
1616
CA：呃。
09:04
EM: So, yeah.
174
532160
1536
EM：所以，对。
09:05
CA: And so you could actually picture,
175
533720
1856
CA：所以你实际上可以构想，
09:07
what kind of length tunnel
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
176
535600
5696
在你构想的未来里，Hyperloop隧道
可以长到什么规模？
可以长到什么规模？
09:13
EM: I think there's no real length limit.
177
541320
3216
EM：我觉得没有任何长度的限制。
09:16
You could dig as much as you want.
178
544560
3016
你可以想要挖多远就挖多远。
09:19
I think if you were to do something
179
547600
2216
我觉得如果你想要造Hyperloop，
09:21
like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,
180
549840
5176
比如从华盛顿到纽约，
09:27
I think you'd probably want
to go underground the entire way
to go underground the entire way
181
555040
2856
我觉得你可能更愿意全程都
从地下穿过
从地下穿过
09:29
because it's a high-density area.
182
557920
1616
因为地面建筑太密集了。
09:31
You're going under
a lot of buildings and houses,
a lot of buildings and houses,
183
559560
4056
你会从地下穿过很多大楼和房屋，
09:35
and if you go deep enough,
184
563640
1536
如果你挖的足够深，
09:37
you cannot detect the tunnel.
185
565200
2376
在地表是探测不到隧道的。
09:39
Sometimes people think,
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
186
567600
2936
有时候人们会想，嗯，那可够恼人的
09:42
to have a tunnel dug under my house.
187
570560
1856
如果在我房子下面挖隧道的话
09:44
Like, if that tunnel is dug
188
572440
1336
比如，如果一条隧道
09:45
more than about three or four
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
189
573800
3176
是在你家地下三到四个隧道直径的
深度挖的话，
深度挖的话，
09:49
you will not be able
to detect it being dug at all.
to detect it being dug at all.
190
577000
2880
你就根本探测不出来了。
09:52
In fact, if you're able
to detect the tunnel being dug,
to detect the tunnel being dug,
191
580880
6696
实际上如果你能够探测到，
09:59
whatever device you are using,
192
587600
1616
不管你用什么设备，
10:01
you can get a lot of money
for that device from the Israeli military,
for that device from the Israeli military,
193
589240
3266
你都可以用这个设备从以色列
军方那里赚到一大笔钱，
军方那里赚到一大笔钱，
10:04
who is trying to detect
tunnels from Hamas,
tunnels from Hamas,
194
592530
2796
他们一直在尝试探测哈马斯组织
挖的隧道，
挖的隧道，
10:07
and from the US Customs and Border patrol
that try and detect drug tunnels.
that try and detect drug tunnels.
195
595636
4780
美国海关和边防也都希望
探测毒贩的隧道。
探测毒贩的隧道。
10:12
So the reality is
196
600440
3216
所以实际上，
10:15
that earth is incredibly good
at absorbing vibrations,
at absorbing vibrations,
197
603680
3856
地球吸收震动的能力
非常的好，
非常的好，
10:19
and once the tunnel depth
is below a certain level,
is below a certain level,
198
607560
2976
一旦隧道建设达到一定深度，
10:22
it is undetectable.
199
610560
1976
就无法探测到了。
10:24
Maybe if you have a very sensitive
seismic instrument,
seismic instrument,
200
612560
2576
或许你拿一个非常灵敏的地震探测仪，
10:27
you might be able to detect it.
201
615160
1480
可以有机会探测到。
10:29
CA: So you've started
a new company to do this
a new company to do this
202
617280
2376
CA：所以你开了一家新公司做这个
10:31
called The Boring Company.
203
619680
1696
公司叫“无聊的公司”。
10:33
Very nice. Very funny.
204
621400
1936
非常棒，挺会玩。
10:35
(Laughter)
205
623360
1376
（笑声）
10:36
EM: What's funny about that?
206
624760
1496
EM：有什么好笑的？
10:38
(Laughter)
207
626280
2616
（笑声）
10:40
CA: How much of your time is this?
208
628920
1920
CA：这个大概花费你多少时间？
10:43
EM: It's maybe ...
209
631600
3120
EM：大概有……
10:47
two or three percent.
210
635680
1200
百分之二三的样子。
10:49
CA: You've bought a hobby.
211
637440
1296
CA：你带来了一个业余爱好。
10:50
This is what an Elon Musk
hobby looks like.
hobby looks like.
212
638760
2736
这就是Elon Musk的业余爱好的样子。
10:53
(Laughter)
213
641520
1016
（笑声）
10:54
EM: I mean, it really is, like --
214
642560
2456
EM：我是说，实际上是——
10:57
This is basically interns
and people doing it part time.
and people doing it part time.
215
645040
4880
基本上是实习生和一些兼职职工在做。
11:03
We bought some second-hand machinery.
216
651320
4696
我们买了一些二手设备。
11:08
It's kind of puttering along,
but it's making good progress, so --
but it's making good progress, so --
217
656040
3120
这个一开始也差不多是随便玩玩，
但是没想到进度喜人，所以——
但是没想到进度喜人，所以——
11:12
CA: So an even bigger part of your time
218
660000
1896
CA：所以你的时间中大部分
11:13
is being spent on electrifying
cars and transport through Tesla.
cars and transport through Tesla.
219
661920
4280
投入到了电动汽车，也就是特斯拉上。
11:19
Is one of the motivations
for the tunneling project
for the tunneling project
220
667440
2576
隧道项目的动机中有没有
11:22
the realization that actually,
221
670040
2536
服务于特斯拉的成分，
11:24
in a world where cars are electric
and where they're self-driving,
and where they're self-driving,
222
672600
3416
未来世界中汽车都是电动，
都是自动驾驶的，
都是自动驾驶的，
11:28
there may end up being
more cars on the roads
more cars on the roads
223
676040
3536
最终可能是路面上有更多汽车
11:31
on any given hour than there are now?
224
679600
2376
比现在的任何时刻都要多？
11:34
EM: Yeah, exactly.
225
682000
1920
EM：对，完全正确。
11:38
A lot of people think
that when you make cars autonomous,
that when you make cars autonomous,
226
686040
4296
很多人认为当汽车开始自动驾驶，
11:42
they'll be able to go faster
and that will alleviate congestion.
and that will alleviate congestion.
227
690360
4616
他们能跑得更快，并缓解交通压力。
11:47
And to some degree that will be true,
228
695000
1896
在某种程度上是真的，
11:48
but once you have shared autonomy
where it's much cheaper to go by car
where it's much cheaper to go by car
229
696920
5056
但是一旦我们开始共享汽车，
叫个计程车就会很便宜
叫个计程车就会很便宜
11:54
and you can go point to point,
230
702000
1440
于是你到哪儿都可以叫车，
11:56
the affordability of going in a car
will be better than that of a bus.
will be better than that of a bus.
231
704960
5136
叫得起出租车要比等公交好得多。
12:02
Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.
232
710120
2216
那时候，叫车估计比公交车还便宜。
12:04
So the amount of driving that will occur
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
233
712360
5056
所以路面上汽车等到共享自动驾驶
汽车的时候就会更多，
汽车的时候就会更多，
12:09
and actually traffic will get far worse.
234
717440
2856
那个时候交通会更拥挤。
12:12
CA: You started Tesla
with the goal of persuading the world
with the goal of persuading the world
235
720320
4256
CA：你创办特斯拉的时候希望向世界证明
12:16
that electrification
was the future of cars,
was the future of cars,
236
724600
3136
电动汽车是汽车行业的未来，
12:19
and a few years ago,
people were laughing at you.
people were laughing at you.
237
727760
2376
几年前，人们还嘲笑你。
12:22
Now, not so much.
238
730160
2456
现在，没有那么多人了。
12:24
EM: OK.
239
732640
1216
EM：好。
12:25
(Laughter)
240
733880
1936
（笑声）
12:27
I don't know. I don't know.
241
735840
2216
我不知道，我不知道。
12:30
CA: But isn't it true that pretty much
every auto manufacturer
every auto manufacturer
242
738080
3416
CA：但是现在差不多每个汽车厂商
12:33
has announced
serious electrification plans
serious electrification plans
243
741520
3016
都认真地宣布了短期或中期的
12:36
for the short- to medium-term future?
244
744560
2640
电动汽车计划？
12:40
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
245
748000
1200
EM：对，对。
12:43
I think almost every automaker
has some electric vehicle program.
has some electric vehicle program.
246
751280
4976
我想基本每一个汽车厂商都有电动车计划了。
12:48
They vary in seriousness.
247
756280
1256
但是对待的认真程度不同。
12:49
Some are very serious
about transitioning entirely to electric,
about transitioning entirely to electric,
248
757560
4296
有一些非常坚定，要全面电动化，
12:53
and some are just dabbling in it.
249
761880
2360
有一些仅仅是试水看看。
12:57
And some, amazingly,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
250
765280
2416
还有一些，挺有意思的还坚持化石燃料，
12:59
but I think that won't last much longer.
251
767720
2136
但是我觉得他们长久不了了。
13:01
CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,
252
769880
2056
CA：但是Elon，现在不就已经是，
13:03
where you can now just declare victory
and say, you know, "We did it."
and say, you know, "We did it."
253
771960
3696
你可以宣布胜利，说，“我们做到了。”
13:07
Let the world electrify,
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
254
775680
4080
让世界都开始转向汽车电动化，
你可以将重心转入其它行业了？
你可以将重心转入其它行业了？
13:13
EM: Yeah.
255
781520
1200
EM：对。
13:16
I intend to stay with Tesla
as far into the future as I can imagine,
as far into the future as I can imagine,
256
784320
4576
我打算在可以预见的未来
继续主导特斯拉的发展，
继续主导特斯拉的发展，
13:20
and there are a lot of exciting
things that we have coming.
things that we have coming.
257
788920
4656
也有很多激动人心的事情我们在做。
13:25
Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.
258
793600
2176
很显然，特斯拉Model 3就要发布了。
13:27
We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
259
795800
3400
我们也要宣布特斯拉半挂卡车。
13:32
CA: OK, we're going to come to this.
260
800120
1936
CA：好的，我们就要聊到这个了。
13:34
So Model 3, it's supposed
to be coming in July-ish.
to be coming in July-ish.
261
802080
4976
所以Model 3计划时在七月左右发布。
13:39
EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good
for starting production in July.
for starting production in July.
262
807080
4536
EM：是，7月份发布新东西感觉很好。
13:43
CA: Wow.
263
811640
1376
CA：哇哦。
13:45
One of the things
that people are so excited about
that people are so excited about
264
813040
2376
人们非常兴奋的一件事情
13:47
is the fact that it's got autopilot.
265
815440
3216
是它将能够自动驾驶。
13:50
And you put out this video a while back
266
818680
2336
你在不久之前放出来这段视频
13:53
showing what that technology
would look like.
would look like.
267
821040
5336
展示了这项技术看起来什么样子。
13:58
EM: Yeah.
268
826400
1216
EM：对的。
13:59
There's obviously autopilot
in Model S right now.
in Model S right now.
269
827640
2456
CA：现在Model S已经有了自动驾驶。
14:02
What are we seeing here?
270
830120
1416
这段视频我们看出来什么？
14:03
EM: Yeah, so this is using
only cameras and GPS.
only cameras and GPS.
271
831560
6016
EM：对的，这段视频里只用了GPS和可见光摄像头。
14:09
So there's no LIDAR
or radar being used here.
or radar being used here.
272
837600
2496
注意这里并没有使用激光雷达。
14:12
This is just using passive optical,
which is essentially what a person uses.
which is essentially what a person uses.
273
840120
4040
这里仅仅是用了被动光学传感器，
跟我们人类使用的差不多。
跟我们人类使用的差不多。
14:17
The whole road system
is meant to be navigated
is meant to be navigated
274
845200
2496
整个道路系统的导航
14:19
with passive optical, or cameras,
275
847720
4056
仅仅使用被动光学，也就是摄像头
14:23
and so once you solve cameras
276
851800
3336
所以当你能够（仅仅）用摄像头
14:27
or vision,
277
855160
1240
或者视觉，
14:29
then autonomy is solved.
278
857720
1496
那么自动驾驶的问题就解决了。
14:31
If you don't solve vision,
it's not solved.
it's not solved.
279
859240
2280
如果你没有解决视觉问题，
问题就没有解决。
问题就没有解决。
14:34
So that's why our focus is
so heavily on having a vision neural net
so heavily on having a vision neural net
280
862120
6016
这也是为什么我们非常重视
训练视觉神经网络，
训练视觉神经网络，
14:40
that's very effective for road conditions.
281
868160
3216
这东西在公路环境下很有效。
14:43
CA: Right. Many other people
are going the LIDAR route.
are going the LIDAR route.
282
871400
2616
CA：对的。很多人都打算使用激光雷达模块。
14:46
You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
283
874040
2856
你希望用摄像头和雷达搞定。
14:48
EM: You can absolutely
be superhuman with just cameras.
be superhuman with just cameras.
284
876920
3376
EM：使用摄像头就足够让你变成超人了。
14:52
Like, you can probably do it
ten times better than humans would,
ten times better than humans would,
285
880320
3016
例如你可能比人类的反应快十倍以上，
14:55
just cameras.
286
883360
1256
仅使用摄像头。
14:56
CA: So the new cars being sold right now
have eight cameras in them.
have eight cameras in them.
287
884640
4456
CA：所以新款特斯拉上有八个摄像头。
15:01
They can't yet do what that showed.
288
889120
4336
它们还不能做刚才展示的那样。
15:05
When will they be able to?
289
893480
1640
什么时候可以？
15:08
EM: I think we're still on track
for being able to go cross-country
for being able to go cross-country
290
896440
5736
EM：我想我们还在按预定计划推进
到今年年底的时候
到今年年底的时候
15:14
from LA to New York by the end
of the year, fully autonomous.
of the year, fully autonomous.
291
902200
4176
能够完全自主的从洛杉矶开到纽约。
15:18
CA: OK, so by the end
of the year, you're saying,
of the year, you're saying,
292
906400
3776
CA：OK，所以到了今年底，你是说
15:22
someone's going to sit in a Tesla
without touching the steering wheel,
without touching the steering wheel,
293
910200
3976
人们只要坐进特斯拉
不需要碰方向盘，
不需要碰方向盘，
15:26
tap in "New York," off it goes.
294
914200
2496
输入“纽约”，车就开起来了。
15:28
EM: Yeah.
295
916720
1216
EM：对的。
15:29
CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel --
by the end of 2017.
by the end of 2017.
296
917960
3200
CA：不再需要摸方向盘——2017年底。
15:34
EM: Yeah. Essentially,
November or December of this year,
November or December of this year,
297
922280
4616
EM：对，基本上，11月份或者12月份，
15:38
we should be able to go all the way
from a parking lot in California
from a parking lot in California
298
926920
4416
我们应该能够完全地
从加州某个停车场，
从加州某个停车场，
15:43
to a parking lot in New York,
299
931360
1656
开到纽约的某个停车场，
15:45
no controls touched at any point
during the entire journey.
during the entire journey.
300
933040
2840
全程不需要碰方向盘。
15:48
(Applause)
301
936800
2016
（掌声）
15:50
CA: Amazing.
302
938840
1216
CA：厉害了。
15:52
But part of that is possible
303
940080
1416
但是这里成功的前提之一
15:53
because you've already got a fleet
of Teslas driving all these roads.
of Teslas driving all these roads.
304
941520
3416
是因为你已经有了一个特斯拉车队
在路上到处行驶。
在路上到处行驶。
15:56
You're accumulating a huge amount
of data of that national road system.
of data of that national road system.
305
944960
4800
你已经积累了海量的公路数据。
16:03
EM: Yes, but the thing
that will be interesting
that will be interesting
306
951440
2656
EM：但是这里好玩的事情是
16:06
is that I'm actually fairly confident
it will be able to do that route
it will be able to do that route
307
954120
5080
我实际上非常自信
即使道路临时改了，
即使道路临时改了，
16:12
even if you change the route dynamically.
308
960960
3240
我们也能够正常行驶到目的地。
16:16
So, it's fairly easy --
309
964840
2400
所以，相对来说容易的是 ——
16:20
If you say I'm going to be really good
at one specific route, that's one thing,
at one specific route, that's one thing,
310
968040
3736
如果你说我在特定的道路上有
很好的表现，这是一回事，
很好的表现，这是一回事，
16:23
but it should be able to go,
really be very good,
really be very good,
311
971800
5136
当然这样它能够做到，
但是更好的是，
但是更好的是，
16:28
certainly once you enter a highway,
312
976960
1736
当你输入一条高速路，
16:30
to go anywhere on the highway system
313
978720
2776
能够去一个国家的
16:33
in a given country.
314
981520
1240
任何一条高速路。
16:36
So it's not sort of limited
to LA to New York.
to LA to New York.
315
984040
2296
所以这并不是只能从洛杉矶到纽约。
16:38
We could change it
and make it Seattle-Florida,
and make it Seattle-Florida,
316
986360
3456
我们可以改成从西雅图到弗罗里达，
16:41
that day, in real time.
317
989840
2536
那天，实时地调整。
16:44
So you were going from LA to New York.
318
992400
2136
所以你假设从洛杉矶到纽约。
16:46
Now go from LA to Toronto.
319
994560
2720
现在从洛杉矶到多伦多。
16:50
CA: So leaving aside
regulation for a second,
regulation for a second,
320
998320
2736
CA：现在先不管监管的问题，
16:53
in terms of the technology alone,
321
1001080
2776
仅仅考虑技术本身，
16:55
the time when someone
will be able to buy one of your cars
will be able to buy one of your cars
322
1003880
3816
大概什么时候，我们能够买一辆你的车
16:59
and literally just take the hands
off the wheel and go to sleep
off the wheel and go to sleep
323
1007720
3816
并且真的双手离开方向盘睡一觉
17:03
and wake up and find that they've arrived,
324
1011560
2056
醒来之后就到了目的地，
17:05
how far away is that, to do that safely?
325
1013640
1936
要能够安全的实现这点还需要多久？
17:07
EM: I think that's about two years.
326
1015600
2256
EM：我想大概两年时间。
17:09
So the real trick of it
is not how do you make it work
is not how do you make it work
327
1017880
3376
这个问题的点不在于
你能够以
你能够以
17:13
say 99.9 percent of the time,
328
1021280
2935
99.9%的概率不出错，
17:16
because, like, if a car crashes
one in a thousand times,
one in a thousand times,
329
1024240
4096
因为，如果一辆汽车一千次出行
会出一次车祸，
会出一次车祸，
那么你可能还是不会睡的舒服。
17:20
then you're probably still not going
to be comfortable falling asleep.
to be comfortable falling asleep.
330
1028359
3977
17:27
You shouldn't be, certainly.
331
1035520
1520
你不会的，当然啦。
（笑声）
17:29
(Laughter)
332
1037080
1460
17:32
It's never going to be perfect.
333
1040040
2895
这个永远都不是完美的。
17:34
No system is going to be perfect,
334
1042960
1735
没有系统能做到完美，
17:36
but if you say it's perhaps --
335
1044720
1599
但是如果你说它可能——
17:40
the car is unlikely to crash
336
1048520
2416
这辆车在一百个人那里
17:42
in a hundred lifetimes,
or a thousand lifetimes,
or a thousand lifetimes,
337
1050960
3456
在一千个人那里
都不会出车祸
都不会出车祸
17:46
then people are like, OK, wow,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
338
1054440
3896
那么人们可能会想，哇哦，
如果我有一千条命，
如果我有一千条命，
17:50
I would still most likely
never experience a crash,
never experience a crash,
339
1058360
2616
我还是基本上不会遇到车祸，
17:53
then that's probably OK.
340
1061000
1376
那么可能就是OK的。
17:54
CA: To sleep.
341
1062400
1216
CA：关于睡觉。
17:55
I guess the big concern of yours
is that people may actually
is that people may actually
342
1063640
2856
我猜测你的一大担心
是人们可能实际上
是人们可能实际上
17:58
get seduced too early
to think that this is safe,
to think that this is safe,
343
1066520
2296
过早的觉得这项技术是安全的，
18:00
and that you'll have some horrible
incident happen that puts things back.
incident happen that puts things back.
344
1068830
4546
然后一些可怕的事故可能会发生，
将人们的预期拉回来。
将人们的预期拉回来。
18:05
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
345
1073400
6016
EM：嗯，实际上我觉得自动驾驶系统
可能至少能够减轻车祸，
可能至少能够减轻车祸，
18:11
except in rare circumstances.
346
1079440
1480
除非在极罕见的情况下。
18:14
The thing to appreciate
about vehicle safety
about vehicle safety
347
1082280
2296
谈及汽车安全需要注意的一点
18:16
is this is probabilistic.
348
1084600
3400
是车祸是有随机性的。
18:20
I mean, there's some chance that any time
a human driver gets in a car,
a human driver gets in a car,
349
1088920
3456
我是说，有这样的可能性，
人类驾驶员坐在车里，
人类驾驶员坐在车里，
18:24
that they will have an accident
that is their fault.
that is their fault.
350
1092400
2936
他们也有可能发生车祸，
那是驾驶员的失误。
那是驾驶员的失误。
18:27
It's never zero.
351
1095360
1320
概率不可能是零。
18:29
So really the key threshold for autonomy
352
1097440
4376
所以关键的一个门槛实际上是
18:33
is how much better does autonomy
need to be than a person
need to be than a person
353
1101840
4416
自动驾驶到底需要比
人类驾驶员好多少时，
人类驾驶员好多少时，
18:38
before you can rely on it?
354
1106280
1376
你才会信任它？
18:39
CA: But once you get
literally safe hands-off driving,
literally safe hands-off driving,
355
1107680
3416
CA：但是一旦这种真正意义上的
无人驾驶开始实施，
无人驾驶开始实施，
18:43
the power to disrupt
the whole industry seems massive,
the whole industry seems massive,
356
1111120
2816
对于整个行业的冲击是巨大的，
18:45
because at that point you've spoken
of people being able to buy a car,
of people being able to buy a car,
357
1113960
4376
因为在那时你可以跟
买得起车的人说，
买得起车的人说，
18:50
drops you off at work,
and then you let it go
and then you let it go
358
1118360
2136
自己坐车上班之后，
让车辆自己去，
让车辆自己去，
18:52
and provide a sort of Uber-like
service to other people,
service to other people,
359
1120520
3976
提供类似优步叫车的服务
给其他人提供服务，
给其他人提供服务，
18:56
earn you money,
360
1124520
1216
车主赚钱，
18:57
maybe even cover the cost
of your lease of that car,
of your lease of that car,
361
1125760
2456
甚至可能足够你支付
买车的分期贷款，
买车的分期贷款，
19:00
so you can kind of get a car for free.
362
1128240
1856
所以你可能不花钱就能买辆车。
19:02
Is that really likely?
363
1130120
1256
这有可能发生么？
19:03
EM: Yeah. Absolutely
this is what will happen.
this is what will happen.
364
1131400
2856
ME：对的，这是绝对会发生的事情。
19:06
So there will be a shared autonomy fleet
365
1134280
1976
所以将来会有一个自动共享车队
19:08
where you buy your car
366
1136280
1256
你买一辆车，
19:09
and you can choose
to use that car exclusively,
to use that car exclusively,
367
1137560
3416
你可以选择自己独享，
19:13
you could choose to have it be used
only by friends and family,
only by friends and family,
368
1141000
3696
你可以选择跟家庭和朋友一起使用，
19:16
only by other drivers
who are rated five star,
who are rated five star,
369
1144720
5056
或者给评分五颗星的司机，
19:21
you can choose to share it sometimes
but not other times.
but not other times.
370
1149800
4880
你可以在某些时间共享，
某些事件独占。
某些事件独占。
19:28
That's 100 percent what will occur.
371
1156120
3296
这百分百会发生。
19:31
It's just a question of when.
372
1159440
1381
只是时间问题。
19:33
CA: Wow.
373
1161960
1216
CA：哇哦。
19:35
So you mentioned the Semi
374
1163200
2216
你刚才提到了半挂卡车
19:37
and I think you're planning
to announce this in September,
to announce this in September,
375
1165440
2736
我想你可能9月份要发布，
19:40
but I'm curious whether there's
anything you could show us today?
anything you could show us today?
376
1168200
3096
但是我很好奇，有没有
今天可以透露的？
今天可以透露的？
19:43
EM: I will show you
a teaser shot of the truck.
a teaser shot of the truck.
377
1171320
3856
EM：我可以给你看一张海报风格的照片。
19:47
(Laughter)
378
1175200
2496
（笑声）
19:49
It's alive.
379
1177720
1936
这是真的。
19:51
CA: OK.
380
1179680
1216
CA：好吧。
19:52
EM: That's definitely a case
where we want to be cautious
where we want to be cautious
381
1180920
2696
EM：这绝对是我们希望
关于自动驾驶特性，
关于自动驾驶特性，
19:55
about the autonomy features.
382
1183640
1334
保持谨慎的一种情形。
19:58
Yeah.
383
1186360
1216
耶。
19:59
(Laughter)
384
1187600
1616
（笑声）
20:01
CA: We can't see that much of it,
385
1189240
1616
CA：我们看不到太多细节，
20:02
but it doesn't look like
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
386
1190880
3216
但是这个看起来并不像是那种
小巧友善的零家卡车。
小巧友善的零家卡车。
20:06
It looks kind of badass.
387
1194120
1256
看起来很霸道。
20:07
What sort of semi is this?
388
1195400
3160
这是个什么类型的卡车？
20:11
EM: So this is a heavy duty,
long-range semitruck.
long-range semitruck.
389
1199160
4576
EM：这是一个重型长途半挂卡车。
20:15
So it's the highest weight capability
390
1203760
4256
它的载重是最大的
20:20
and with long range.
391
1208040
3056
并且用于长途。
20:23
So essentially it's meant to alleviate
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
392
1211120
5440
所以基本上这是用来减轻
长途重型卡车的负载的。
长途重型卡车的负载的。
20:29
And this is something which
people do not today think is possible.
people do not today think is possible.
393
1217280
5296
这是今天的人们觉得不太可能的事情。
20:34
They think the truck doesn't have enough
power or it doesn't have enough range,
power or it doesn't have enough range,
394
1222600
3736
他们认为这个卡车没有足够动力，
也跑不了那么远，
也跑不了那么远，
20:38
and then with the Tesla Semi
395
1226360
2536
于是通过特斯拉半挂卡车，
20:40
we want to show that no, an electric truck
396
1228920
2656
我们希望证明，一辆电动卡车
20:43
actually can out-torque any diesel semi.
397
1231600
6016
实际上能够驱动任何柴油动力卡车。
20:49
And if you had a tug-of-war competition,
398
1237640
4136
而且如果我们来一场拔河比赛，
20:53
the Tesla Semi
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
399
1241800
5056
特斯拉电动半挂能够把
柴油动力车拽上坡。
柴油动力车拽上坡。
20:58
(Laughter)
400
1246880
2256
（笑声）
21:01
(Applause)
401
1249160
1856
（掌声）
21:03
CA: That's pretty cool.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
402
1251040
3016
CA：这太酷了。简单说，还不是无人驾驶。
21:06
These are going to be trucks
that truck drivers want to drive.
that truck drivers want to drive.
403
1254080
3320
这些是需要卡车司机驾驶的卡车。
21:10
EM: Yes. So what will be
really fun about this
really fun about this
404
1258480
2616
EM：是的。真正好玩的地方在于
21:13
is you have a flat torque RPM curve
with an electric motor,
with an electric motor,
405
1261120
5376
电动引擎的的转矩扭力曲线是平坦的，
21:18
whereas with a diesel motor or any kind
of internal combustion engine car,
of internal combustion engine car,
406
1266520
3496
而柴油动力或者任何内燃机车引擎，
21:22
you've got a torque RPM curve
that looks like a hill.
that looks like a hill.
407
1270040
2600
你看到的转矩扭力曲线都是山峰状的。
21:25
So this will be a very spry truck.
408
1273840
2936
所以这车动力澎湃。
21:28
You can drive this
around like a sports car.
around like a sports car.
409
1276800
2856
驾驶这车的就像驾驶运动型轿车。
21:31
There's no gears.
It's, like, single speed.
It's, like, single speed.
410
1279680
2376
没有齿轮。它就像是单一速度。
21:34
CA: There's a great movie
to be made here somewhere.
to be made here somewhere.
411
1282080
2456
CA：有一部很不错的电影在这里拍摄。
21:36
I don't know what it is
and I don't know that it ends well,
and I don't know that it ends well,
412
1284560
2776
我不知道这是什么，不知道结局如何，
21:39
but it's a great movie.
413
1287360
1216
不过这是个好电影。
21:40
(Laughter)
414
1288600
1016
（笑声）
21:41
EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.
415
1289640
2736
EM：试驾的感觉非常的奇怪。
21:44
When I was driving the test prototype
for the first truck.
for the first truck.
416
1292400
4016
当我第一次驾驶这样卡车的原型车时。
21:48
It's really weird,
because you're driving around
because you're driving around
417
1296440
2256
真的很古怪，因为你开来开去
21:50
and you're just so nimble,
and you're in this giant truck.
and you're in this giant truck.
418
1298720
3096
你感觉非常灵活，
你又是坐在这种大卡车里。
你又是坐在这种大卡车里。
21:53
CA: Wait, you've
already driven a prototype?
already driven a prototype?
419
1301840
3496
CA：等等，你已经开过了？
21:57
EM: Yeah, I drove it
around the parking lot,
around the parking lot,
420
1305360
2096
EM：对，我在一个停车场开了下，
21:59
and I was like, this is crazy.
421
1307480
1456
我当时感觉，太疯狂了。
22:00
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
422
1308960
2176
CA：哇哦，这不是幻想。
22:03
EM: It's just like,
driving this giant truck
driving this giant truck
423
1311160
2096
EM：就像这样，驾驶这个庞然大物，
22:05
and making these mad maneuvers.
424
1313280
1976
机动性又让人觉得疯狂。
22:07
CA: This is cool.
OK, from a really badass picture
OK, from a really badass picture
425
1315280
2456
CA：太酷了。好，从一张很霸道的图片，
22:09
to a kind of less badass picture.
426
1317760
2616
到这张不那么霸道的照片。
22:12
This is just a cute house
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
427
1320400
3336
这是从《绝望的主妇》剧照里抠出来的房子。
22:15
What on earth is going on here?
428
1323760
3056
这到底要说明什么？
22:18
EM: Well, this illustrates
the picture of the future
the picture of the future
429
1326840
2456
EM：嗯，这张图片展示了未来，
22:21
that I think is how things will evolve.
430
1329320
2976
我觉得事情会如何演化。
22:24
You've got an electric car
in the driveway.
in the driveway.
431
1332320
2336
你在路上看到一辆电动汽车。
22:26
If you look in between
the electric car and the house,
the electric car and the house,
432
1334680
3736
如果你留心车和房屋之间，
22:30
there are actually three Powerwalls
stacked up against the side of the house,
stacked up against the side of the house,
433
1338440
3856
实际上在房屋的周围有三面Powerwall，
22:34
and then that house roof is a solar roof.
434
1342320
2816
同时房屋的屋顶是太阳能屋顶。
22:37
So that's an actual solar glass roof.
435
1345160
2096
所以那实际上是一个太阳能玻璃屋顶。
22:39
CA: OK.
436
1347280
1216
CA：OK。
22:40
EM: That's a picture of a real --
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
437
1348520
4256
EM：这张图片是真的 ——
嗯，公认的，真的样板房。
嗯，公认的，真的样板房。
22:44
That's a real fake house.
438
1352800
1656
这是个真的样板房。
22:46
(Laughter)
439
1354480
3096
（笑声）
22:49
CA: So these roof tiles,
440
1357600
1856
CA：所以这些屋顶的瓦片，
22:51
some of them have in them
basically solar power, the ability to --
basically solar power, the ability to --
441
1359480
6136
其中有一些有能力进行太阳能发电 ——
22:57
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles
442
1365640
1696
EM：对的。太阳能玻璃瓦片
22:59
where you can adjust
the texture and the color
the texture and the color
443
1367360
5096
你可以调整纹理和颜色，
23:04
to a very fine-grained level,
444
1372480
1976
可以在很精细的粒度上调整，
23:06
and then there's
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
445
1374480
5576
而且这些玻璃上有种类似
百叶窗的微型结构，
百叶窗的微型结构，
23:12
such that when you're looking
at the roof from street level
at the roof from street level
446
1380080
3456
所以当你从街道那么远的距离
看这个屋顶
看这个屋顶
23:15
or close to street level,
447
1383560
1696
或者靠近马路的位置，
23:17
all the tiles look the same
448
1385280
2376
所有的瓦片看起来都一样了，
23:19
whether there is a solar cell
behind it or not.
behind it or not.
449
1387680
5080
无法区分里面是不是有太阳能板。
23:26
So you have an even color
450
1394000
3416
所以从地面上看，
23:29
from the ground level.
451
1397440
3496
你看到的是均匀的色彩。
23:32
If you were to look at it
from a helicopter,
from a helicopter,
452
1400960
2096
如果你坐在直升机上往下看，
23:35
you would be actually able
to look through and see
to look through and see
453
1403080
2376
你就能穿透玻璃看到后面
23:37
that some of the glass tiles have
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
454
1405480
4016
有一些玻璃后面有太阳能电池板，
有一些没有。
有一些没有。
23:41
You can't tell from street level.
455
1409520
1616
从街道上无法看出来。
23:43
CA: You put them in the ones
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
456
1411160
3056
CA：你把它们放在阳光尽可能
多照射到的地方，
多照射到的地方，
23:46
and that makes these roofs
super affordable, right?
super affordable, right?
457
1414240
2376
是的这些屋顶更容易负担得起，对么？
23:48
They're not that much more expensive
than just tiling the roof.
than just tiling the roof.
458
1416640
2976
这相对于完全用太阳能电池板负载屋顶
要经济得多。
要经济得多。
23:51
EM: Yeah.
459
1419640
1200
EM：对。
23:53
We're very confident
that the cost of the roof
that the cost of the roof
460
1421840
2600
我们很有自信，屋顶的成本
23:57
plus the cost of electricity --
461
1425840
1920
加上电力节约的成本 ——
24:01
A solar glass roof will be less
than the cost of a normal roof
than the cost of a normal roof
462
1429920
2936
一个太阳能玻璃屋顶的成本
将会比一个普通屋顶
将会比一个普通屋顶
24:04
plus the cost of electricity.
463
1432880
1416
加上电力成本来的低。
24:06
So in other words,
464
1434320
1256
所以换句话说，
24:07
this will be economically a no-brainer,
465
1435600
4336
这将是在经济上的必然选择，
24:11
we think it will look great,
466
1439960
1696
我们觉得看起来很棒，
24:13
and it will last --
467
1441680
2136
而且它可以持续 ——
24:15
We thought about having
the warranty be infinity,
the warranty be infinity,
468
1443840
3056
我们有考虑过无限期质保，
24:18
but then people thought,
469
1446920
1216
但是人们会想，
24:20
well, that might sound
like were just talking rubbish,
like were just talking rubbish,
470
1448160
2576
嗯，这可能听起来像是胡说八道，
24:22
but actually this is toughened glass.
471
1450760
5616
但是实际上这些都是钢化玻璃。
24:28
Well after the house has collapsed
472
1456400
2896
甚至房屋都倒塌了
24:31
and there's nothing there,
473
1459320
1896
成了一片废墟，
24:33
the glass tiles will still be there.
474
1461240
3536
这些玻璃瓦片还会完好无损的。
24:36
(Applause)
475
1464800
1576
（掌声）
24:38
CA: I mean, this is cool.
476
1466400
1736
CA：我觉得这很酷。
24:40
So you're rolling this out
in a couple week's time, I think,
in a couple week's time, I think,
477
1468160
2856
所以我想你可能会在几周内
开始推广，
开始推广，
24:43
with four different roofing types.
478
1471040
2536
共有四种不同的屋顶样式。
24:45
EM: Yeah, we're starting off
with two, two initially,
with two, two initially,
479
1473600
2536
EM：对，我们开始的时候推广两种，
一开始有两种，
一开始有两种，
24:48
and the second two
will be introduced early next year.
will be introduced early next year.
480
1476160
3176
另外两种会在明年初开始。
24:51
CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?
481
1479360
2056
CA：那么在规模上你有多大的野心？
24:53
How many houses do you believe
could end up having this type of roofing?
could end up having this type of roofing?
482
1481440
5520
你觉得大概有多少屋顶会被
替换成这种屋顶？
替换成这种屋顶？
24:59
EM: I think eventually
483
1487760
1400
EM：我觉得最终的话
25:02
almost all houses will have a solar roof.
484
1490560
3640
基本上所有的屋子都会有太阳能屋顶。
25:07
The thing is to consider
the time scale here
the time scale here
485
1495880
3536
问题是需要考虑大概需要多久
25:11
to be probably on the order
486
1499440
2456
我觉得大概是需要
25:13
of 40 or 50 years.
487
1501920
3176
40到50年的样子。
25:17
So on average, a roof
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
488
1505120
4880
所以一般而言，屋顶20-25年换一次。
25:23
But you don't start replacing
all roofs immediately.
all roofs immediately.
489
1511400
3336
但是你不会一开始就替换所有的屋顶。
25:26
But eventually,
if you say were to fast-forward
if you say were to fast-forward
490
1514760
3336
但是最终，如果你快速地从现在
25:30
to say 15 years from now,
491
1518120
3456
推广到15年之后，
25:33
it will be unusual to have a roof
that does not have solar.
that does not have solar.
492
1521600
3600
那时候没有太阳能的屋顶将会是很少见的。
25:37
CA: Is there a mental model thing
that people don't get here
that people don't get here
493
1525840
2856
CA：这里会不会因为人们的思维模式
还没有到这个程度，
还没有到这个程度，
25:40
that because of the shift in the cost,
the economics of solar power,
the economics of solar power,
494
1528720
4416
并不是因为成本的变化，
太阳能的经济效应，
太阳能的经济效应，
25:45
most houses actually have
enough sunlight on their roof
enough sunlight on their roof
495
1533160
4096
大部分房屋的屋顶实际上
有充足的光照，
有充足的光照，
25:49
pretty much to power all of their needs.
496
1537280
2056
足够提供他们所需的所有电能。
25:51
If you could capture the power,
497
1539360
1896
如果你能够利用这种能源，
25:53
it could pretty much
power all their needs.
power all their needs.
498
1541280
2056
这基本上满足了他们所有的需要。
25:55
You could go off-grid, kind of.
499
1543360
1536
你可以某种程度上不需要电网了。
25:56
EM: It depends on where you are
500
1544920
1536
EM：这取决于你的位置
25:58
and what the house size is
relative to the roof area,
relative to the roof area,
501
1546480
3256
以及屋顶面积和房屋面积的比例，
26:01
but it's a fair statement to say
502
1549760
1856
但是一般而言可以说
26:03
that most houses in the US
have enough roof area
have enough roof area
503
1551640
4816
美国的大部分房屋有足够大的屋顶
26:08
to power all the needs of the house.
504
1556480
1960
产生足够全家使用的电能。
26:11
CA: So the key to the economics
505
1559800
3176
CA：所以这项经济活动的关键
26:15
of the cars, the Semi, of these houses
506
1563000
4016
包括汽车、半挂卡车、这些房屋
26:19
is the falling price
of lithium-ion batteries,
of lithium-ion batteries,
507
1567040
3896
是锂电池的价格需要足够低，
26:22
which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.
508
1570960
2496
这是你在特斯拉上的豪赌。
26:25
In many ways, that's almost
the core competency.
the core competency.
509
1573480
2256
从很多方面讲，这都算是核心能力。
26:27
And you've decided
510
1575760
2256
所以你决定
26:30
that to really, like, own that competency,
511
1578040
5216
为了能够真正的拥有这项核心能力，
26:35
you just have to build
the world's largest manufacturing plant
the world's largest manufacturing plant
512
1583280
3456
你需要建造世界上最大的生产厂房
26:38
to double the world's supply
of lithium-ion batteries,
of lithium-ion batteries,
513
1586760
3136
将世界锂电池供应量翻倍，
26:41
with this guy. What is this?
514
1589920
2296
用这个家伙。这是什么？
26:44
EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,
515
1592240
3456
EM：对，这是超级工厂，
26:47
progress so far on the Gigafactory.
516
1595720
2696
超级工厂目前的进展。
26:50
Eventually, you can sort of roughly see
517
1598440
1896
最终，你大概能够看到
26:52
that there's sort of
a diamond shape overall,
a diamond shape overall,
518
1600360
2936
一个类似钻石形状的轮廓，
26:55
and when it's fully done,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
519
1603320
4616
等到完全竣工，它会像一个巨型钻石，
26:59
or that's the idea behind it,
520
1607960
2216
这也是这个背后的点子，
27:02
and it's aligned on true north.
521
1610200
1496
这指向正北方。
27:03
It's a small detail.
522
1611720
1736
这是个小细节。
27:05
CA: And capable of producing, eventually,
523
1613480
3896
CA：最终将有能力生产，
27:09
like a hundred gigawatt hours
of batteries a year.
of batteries a year.
524
1617400
3176
每年生产几百兆瓦时的电源。
27:12
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours.
We think probably more, but yeah.
We think probably more, but yeah.
525
1620600
2976
EM：一百兆瓦时。我们觉得可能
会更多一些，不过，是的。
会更多一些，不过，是的。
27:15
CA: And they're actually
being produced right now.
being produced right now.
526
1623600
2376
CA：而且实际上他们已经投入生产了。
27:18
EM: They're in production already.
CA: You guys put out this video.
CA: You guys put out this video.
527
1626000
3176
EM：他们已经在生产了。
CA：你的员工放了这段视频。
CA：你的员工放了这段视频。
27:21
I mean, is that speeded up?
528
1629200
1336
我想问，这是快进了么？
27:22
EM: That's the slowed down version.
529
1630560
1696
EM：这是慢速回放的版本。
27:24
(Laughter)
530
1632280
1776
（笑声）
27:26
CA: How fast does it actually go?
531
1634080
2336
CA：那么它实际上会有多快？
27:28
EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,
532
1636440
2816
EM：嗯，当它全速运行的时候，
27:31
you can't actually see the cells
without a strobe light.
without a strobe light.
533
1639280
3936
不用频闪灯你是看不到具体的电池的，
27:35
It's just blur.
534
1643240
1200
是模糊的影子。
27:36
(Laughter)
535
1644540
3336
（笑声）
27:40
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon,
about what makes an exciting future
about what makes an exciting future
536
1648000
3576
CA：你的一个核心观念，伊隆，
创在一个令人兴奋的未来
创在一个令人兴奋的未来
27:43
is a future where we no longer
feel guilty about energy.
feel guilty about energy.
537
1651600
2640
这个未来人们在使用能源上
不用再有罪恶感。
不用再有罪恶感。
27:47
Help us picture this.
538
1655480
1416
帮我们描绘一下。
27:48
How many Gigafactories, if you like,
does it take to get us there?
does it take to get us there?
539
1656920
5016
需要多少超级工厂，按你的设想，
才能帮助我们达到目标？
才能帮助我们达到目标？
27:53
EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.
540
1661960
1736
EM：大概需要一百座，基本上。
27:55
It's not 10, it's not a thousand.
541
1663720
1736
不是10座，不是1000座。
27:57
Most likely a hundred.
542
1665480
1360
最有可能是一百座。
28:00
CA: See, I find this amazing.
543
1668040
1656
CA：看，我觉得很神奇。
28:01
You can picture what it would take
544
1669720
3976
你可以描绘出为了让世界
28:05
to move the world
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
545
1673720
3256
抛弃化石燃料需要的具体步骤。
28:09
It's like you're building one,
546
1677000
2576
好像你建造这一座工厂，
28:11
it costs five billion dollars,
547
1679600
2856
造价是五十亿美元，
28:14
or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.
548
1682480
2136
或者可能是，五十亿到一百亿美元。
28:16
Like, it's kind of cool
that you can picture that project.
that you can picture that project.
549
1684640
3616
你能描绘出那样的场景相当的酷。
28:20
And you're planning to do, at Tesla --
announce another two this year.
announce another two this year.
550
1688280
4480
而且你的特斯拉公司还计划 ——
今年再建设两座超级工厂。
今年再建设两座超级工厂。
28:25
EM: I think we'll announce locations
551
1693480
2856
EM：我觉得我们会在今年晚些时候
28:28
for somewhere between two
and four Gigafactories later this year.
and four Gigafactories later this year.
552
1696360
3736
公开二到四座超级工厂的选址。
28:32
Yeah, probably four.
553
1700120
1440
对，可能是四座。
28:34
CA: Whoa.
554
1702040
1616
CA：哇。
28:35
(Applause)
555
1703680
2616
（掌声）
28:38
No more teasing from you for here?
556
1706320
4056
这里能透露更多信息么？
28:42
Like -- where, continent?
557
1710400
2800
例如 —— 哪个大陆？
28:47
You can say no.
558
1715480
1200
你可以说不。
28:49
EM: We need to address a global market.
559
1717440
3776
EM：我们需要考虑全球市场。
28:53
CA: OK.
560
1721240
1216
CA：好吧。
28:54
(Laughter)
561
1722480
1336
（笑声）
28:55
This is cool.
562
1723840
1200
酷。
28:59
I think we should talk for --
563
1727480
4240
我想我们需要谈论一下 ——
29:04
Actually, double mark it.
564
1732560
1616
实际上，加上双引号。
29:06
I'm going to ask you one question
about politics, only one.
about politics, only one.
565
1734200
4096
我接下来要问一个政治问题，就一个。
29:10
I'm kind of sick of politics,
but I do want to ask you this.
but I do want to ask you this.
566
1738320
3256
我是厌恶政治的，但是我想问你这个问题。
29:13
You're on a body now
giving advice to a guy --
giving advice to a guy --
567
1741600
6336
你现在加入了一个委员会
为一个人提供建议 ——
为一个人提供建议 ——
29:19
EM: Who?
568
1747960
1216
EM：谁？
29:21
CA: Who has said he doesn't
really believe in climate change,
really believe in climate change,
569
1749200
2896
CA：一个自称不相信全球变暖的人，
29:24
and there's a lot of people out there
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
570
1752120
4336
并且有很多人觉得你不应该参与其中。
29:28
They'd like you to walk away from that.
571
1756480
1896
他们希望你远离这些。
29:30
What would you say to them?
572
1758400
1360
你如何回应他们？
29:32
EM: Well, I think that first of all,
573
1760720
3616
EM：嗯，我想首先，
29:36
I'm just on two advisory councils
574
1764360
2536
我只是在两个咨询委员会里
29:38
where the format consists
of going around the room
of going around the room
575
1766920
2816
形式上大概就是聚在一间屋子里
29:41
and asking people's opinion on things,
576
1769760
2896
问人们关于一些议题的看法，
29:44
and so there's like a meeting
every month or two.
every month or two.
577
1772680
3760
大概一两个月开一次会。
29:49
That's the sum total of my contribution.
578
1777560
3216
这是我所有的贡献。
29:52
But I think to the degree
that there are people in the room
that there are people in the room
579
1780800
2776
但是我想对在场的那些因为关心
29:55
who are arguing in favor
of doing something about climate change,
of doing something about climate change,
580
1783600
4736
气候变化而争论的朋友，或是争论
30:00
or social issues,
581
1788360
4000
社会议题的朋友，
30:06
I've used the meetings I've had thus far
582
1794520
3216
我利用我参与这些会议的机会
30:09
to argue in favor of immigration
and in favor of climate change.
and in favor of climate change.
583
1797760
4856
为移民问题和气候变化问题发声。
30:14
(Applause)
584
1802640
1936
（掌声）
30:16
And if I hadn't done that,
585
1804600
2096
如果我没有这么做，
30:18
that wasn't on the agenda before.
586
1806720
2816
这些本来都不在议题上。
30:21
So maybe nothing will happen,
but at least the words were said.
but at least the words were said.
587
1809560
4240
所以可能什么都不会发生，
但是该说的我都说了。
但是该说的我都说了。
30:26
CA: OK.
588
1814680
1216
CA：OK。
30:27
(Applause)
589
1815920
2880
（掌声）
30:31
So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.
590
1819800
3536
让我们聊聊SpaceX和火星。
30:35
Last time you were here,
591
1823360
1456
上一次你来这里，
30:36
you spoke about what seemed like
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
592
1824840
3696
你讲述了一个看起来充满野心
并且难以置信的梦想
并且难以置信的梦想
30:40
to develop rockets
that were actually reusable.
that were actually reusable.
593
1828560
4296
创造一种可以回收利用的火箭。
30:44
And you've only gone and done it.
594
1832880
2136
现在你终于做到了。
30:47
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
595
1835040
1616
EM：终于。这花了很长时间。
30:48
CA: Talk us through this.
What are we looking at here?
What are we looking at here?
596
1836680
2576
CA：跟我们说说这个。
我们现在看到了什么？
我们现在看到了什么？
30:51
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters
597
1839280
2136
EM：这是我们的一个火箭推进器
30:53
coming back from
very high and fast in space.
very high and fast in space.
598
1841440
4576
从很高的天空快速返回的视频。
30:58
So just delivered the upper stage
599
1846040
3256
它在火箭高速飞行的
31:01
at high velocity.
600
1849320
2096
前期阶段进行推动。
31:03
I think this might have been
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
601
1851440
3856
我想这大概有7马赫左右，
31:07
delivery of the upper stage.
602
1855320
1960
运送上节火箭。
31:10
(Applause)
603
1858880
2000
（掌声）
31:13
CA: So that was a sped-up --
604
1861840
1496
CA：所以这是个快速 ——
31:15
EM: That was the slowed down version.
605
1863360
1816
EM：这是个慢速回放版本。
31:17
(Laughter)
606
1865200
1336
（笑声）
31:18
CA: I thought that was
the sped-up version.
the sped-up version.
607
1866560
2496
CA：我以为这是个快进版本。
31:21
But I mean, that's amazing,
608
1869080
1336
但是我想说这太神奇了，
31:22
and several of these failed
609
1870440
1336
而且前几次都失败了
31:23
before you finally
figured out how to do it,
figured out how to do it,
610
1871800
2936
后来你终于发现了正确的方法，
31:26
but now you've done this,
what, five or six times?
what, five or six times?
611
1874760
2896
现在你们已经做了，五到六次？
31:29
EM: We're at eight or nine.
612
1877680
2296
EM：我们成功了八九次了。
31:32
CA: And for the first time,
613
1880000
1616
CA：这是历史上第一次，
31:33
you've actually reflown
one of the rockets that landed.
one of the rockets that landed.
614
1881640
3136
你回收和再利用了着陆之后的火箭。
31:36
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster
615
1884800
2776
EM：对，我们回收了火箭推进器
31:39
and then prepped it for flight again
and flew it again,
and flew it again,
616
1887600
2616
并且重新注入燃料继续使用，
继续回收，
继续回收，
31:42
so it's the first reflight
of an orbital booster
of an orbital booster
617
1890240
5176
所以这是第一次太空轨道推进器
的重复飞行，
的重复飞行，
31:47
where that reflight is relevant.
618
1895440
1976
注意这里再次飞行是有意义的。
31:49
So it's important to appreciate
that reusability is only relevant
that reusability is only relevant
619
1897440
3176
这里很重要的一点需要支持
就是可重用性只有在
就是可重用性只有在
31:52
if it is rapid and complete.
620
1900640
4080
快速和完备的时候才是有意义的。
31:57
So like an aircraft or a car,
621
1905400
3256
就像是飞行器或者汽车，
32:00
the reusability is rapid and complete.
622
1908680
2376
它们的重复使用是快速且完备的。
32:03
You do not send your aircraft
to Boeing in-between flights.
to Boeing in-between flights.
623
1911080
5056
你不会在两次航空飞行之间
把飞机送回波音公司。
把飞机送回波音公司。
32:08
CA: Right. So this is allowing you
to dream of this really ambitious idea
to dream of this really ambitious idea
624
1916160
4816
CA：对。所以这让你能够实现那个
野心勃勃的梦想
野心勃勃的梦想
32:13
of sending many, many, many people to Mars
625
1921000
3176
把很多很多人送上火星
32:16
in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
626
1924200
2416
在大概10年、20年之内，我猜。
32:18
EM: Yeah.
627
1926640
1376
EM：对。
32:20
CA: And you've designed
this outrageous rocket to do it.
this outrageous rocket to do it.
628
1928040
3416
CA：然后你设计了这样大胆的
火箭来实现这个目标。
火箭来实现这个目标。
32:23
Help us understand
the scale of this thing.
the scale of this thing.
629
1931480
2416
跟我们解释一下这个事情的规模。
32:25
EM: Well, visually
you can see that's a person.
you can see that's a person.
630
1933920
4880
EM：好，你可以看到这里有一个人。
32:32
Yeah, and that's the vehicle.
631
1940680
1816
对，那是火箭。
32:34
(Laughter)
632
1942520
1656
（笑声）
32:36
CA: So if that was a skyscraper,
633
1944200
1736
CA：所以如果那是个摩天大楼的话，
32:37
that's like, did I read that,
a 40-story skyscraper?
a 40-story skyscraper?
634
1945960
3336
那么大概，如果没算错，
大概40层的摩天大楼？
大概40层的摩天大楼？
32:41
EM: Probably a little more, yeah.
635
1949320
1600
EM：可能稍微更高一些，对。
32:44
The thrust level of this is really --
636
1952360
4000
这个级别的推动力非常的 ——
32:50
This configuration is about four times
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
637
1958360
4920
这个推动力大概是土星5型火箭的4倍。
32:56
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest
rocket humanity ever created before.
rocket humanity ever created before.
638
1964440
4856
CA：比人类创造的最大推进力的火箭
多四倍的推进力。
多四倍的推进力。
33:01
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
639
1969320
1200
EM：对，对。
33:04
CA: As one does.
EM: Yeah.
EM: Yeah.
640
1972640
1456
CA：这个能做到。
EM：对呀。
EM：对呀。
33:06
(Laughter)
641
1974120
2976
（笑声）
33:09
In units of 747, a 747 is only about
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
642
1977120
5976
以波音747做比较，一架747的推动力
大概是25万磅的推动力，
大概是25万磅的推动力，
33:15
so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,
643
1983120
3096
所以一千万镑的推动力，
33:18
there's 40 747s.
644
1986240
1696
相当于40架747.
33:19
So this would be the thrust equivalent
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
645
1987960
6256
所以这相当于120架747的推动力，
如果引擎都打开的话。
如果引擎都打开的话。
33:26
CA: And so even with a machine
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
646
1994240
4216
CA：所以用这台设计用来摆脱
地心引力的机器，
地心引力的机器，
33:30
I think you told me last time
647
1998480
1416
我想上次你告诉我说
33:31
this thing could actually
take a fully loaded 747,
take a fully loaded 747,
648
1999920
3256
这东西能够装载一架满载的747，
33:35
people, cargo, everything,
649
2003200
2336
人，货物，所有东西，
33:37
into orbit.
650
2005560
1256
送入轨道。
33:38
EM: Exactly. This can take
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
651
2006840
5136
EM：没错。这个可以装载一架
加满油的747，
加满油的747，
33:44
maximum passengers,
maximum cargo on the 747 --
maximum cargo on the 747 --
652
2012000
4496
747上乘客满员、货物满员 ——
33:48
this can take it as cargo.
653
2016520
2240
可以整体当作货物。
33:52
CA: So based on this,
654
2020080
1736
CA：所以基于这个
33:53
you presented recently
this Interplanetary Transport System
this Interplanetary Transport System
655
2021840
4816
你最近展示了这个星际传送系统
33:58
which is visualized this way.
656
2026680
3376
画出来是这个样子的。
34:02
This is a scene you picture in, what,
30 years time? 20 years time?
30 years time? 20 years time?
657
2030080
4080
这个场景你描述的是
30年后？20年后？
30年后？20年后？
34:06
People walking into this rocket.
658
2034880
2576
人们走进这个火箭。
34:09
EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
659
2037480
4576
EM：我希望这是8到10年之后的场景。
34:14
Aspirationally, that's our target.
660
2042080
2376
这是我们的雄心壮志。
34:16
Our internal targets
are more aggressive, but I think --
are more aggressive, but I think --
661
2044480
3016
我们内部的目标更加的激进，不过我想 ——
34:19
(Laughter)
662
2047520
2159
（笑声）
34:23
CA: OK.
663
2051600
1215
CA：好吧。
34:24
EM: While vehicle seems quite large
664
2052840
2136
EM：虽然航空器看起来非常大
34:27
and is large by comparison
with other rockets,
with other rockets,
665
2055000
2176
并且比其它火箭都要大，
34:29
I think the future spacecraft
666
2057199
3977
我想未来的宇宙飞船
34:33
will make this look like a rowboat.
667
2061199
3841
会让这个看起来就像是小船一样。
34:38
The future spaceships
will be truly enormous.
will be truly enormous.
668
2066320
4696
未来的航天飞机将真的会很大。
34:43
CA: Why, Elon?
669
2071040
2176
CA：为什么，伊隆？
34:45
Why do we need to build a city on Mars
670
2073239
4137
为什么我们需要在火星上建造城市
34:49
with a million people
on it in your lifetime,
on it in your lifetime,
671
2077400
3056
在你的有生之年移民一百万人口，
34:52
which I think is kind of
what you've said you'd love to do?
what you've said you'd love to do?
672
2080480
3000
这是我理解的你想要做的事情？
34:56
EM: I think it's important to have
673
2084480
2759
EM：我觉得非常重要的是
35:01
a future that is inspiring and appealing.
674
2089120
2736
有一个激动人心和向往的未来。
35:03
I just think there have to be reasons
675
2091880
2776
我就是觉得必须要有理由
35:06
that you get up in the morning
and you want to live.
and you want to live.
676
2094679
2937
让你每天早晨醒来的时候
有活下去的兴趣。
有活下去的兴趣。
35:09
Like, why do you want to live?
677
2097640
1456
像是，你为什么要活着？
35:11
What's the point? What inspires you?
678
2099120
1736
意义是什么？有什么东西鼓舞着你？
35:12
What do you love about the future?
679
2100880
1856
未来你有什么期许？
35:14
And if we're not out there,
680
2102760
1496
如果我们不能去火星，
35:16
if the future does not include
being out there among the stars
being out there among the stars
681
2104280
4016
如果我们的未来不包括
在多个行星上生活
在多个行星上生活
35:20
and being a multiplanet species,
682
2108320
1696
并且成为跨行星的物种，
35:22
I find that it's incredibly depressing
683
2110040
2496
我发现这将会特别的令人失望，
35:24
if that's not the future
that we're going to have.
that we're going to have.
684
2112560
3336
如果这个不是我们即将
迎来的未来的话。
迎来的未来的话。
35:27
(Applause)
685
2115920
4176
（掌声）
35:32
CA: People want to position this
as an either or,
as an either or,
686
2120120
2336
CA：人们可能将这个事情放在次要位置，
35:34
that there are so many desperate things
happening on the planet now
happening on the planet now
687
2122480
3696
或者说这个星球上已经有那么多
叫人绝望的事情，
叫人绝望的事情，
35:38
from climate to poverty
to, you know, you pick your issue.
to, you know, you pick your issue.
688
2126200
3440
从气候问题到贫困问题，而你，
你挑了你关心的问题。
你挑了你关心的问题。
35:42
And this feels like a distraction.
689
2130480
2536
这感觉像是有点偏离重点。
35:45
You shouldn't be thinking about this.
690
2133040
1816
你不应该思考这些。
35:46
You should be solving what's here and now.
691
2134880
2176
你应该解决当前和当下的问题。
35:49
And to be fair, you've done
a fair old bit to actually do that
a fair old bit to actually do that
692
2137080
2936
公平地讲，你已经做了一些
实质性的工作
实质性的工作
35:52
with your work on sustainable energy.
693
2140040
2816
比如你在可再生能源上的贡献。
35:54
But why not just do that?
694
2142880
2040
但是为什么不满足于此呢？
35:59
EM: I think there's --
695
2147360
2080
EM：我觉得 ——
36:04
I look at the future
from the standpoint of probabilities.
from the standpoint of probabilities.
696
2152840
4416
我是从概率的角度看待未来的。
36:09
It's like a branching
stream of probabilities,
stream of probabilities,
697
2157280
4176
未来就像是不断在的分岔路上做选择，
36:13
and there are actions that we can take
that affect those probabilities
that affect those probabilities
698
2161480
5000
有一些行为是我们可以做的
会改变可能性
会改变可能性
36:19
or that accelerate one thing
or slow down another thing.
or slow down another thing.
699
2167920
3200
或是加快一件事情，
或是减慢一件事情。
或是减慢一件事情。
36:24
I may introduce something new
to the probability stream.
to the probability stream.
700
2172000
4120
我可能在这个可能性的洪流中
引入新的东西。
引入新的东西。
36:30
Sustainable energy
will happen no matter what.
will happen no matter what.
701
2178840
2176
可再生能源一定会发生。
36:33
If there was no Tesla,
if Tesla never existed,
if Tesla never existed,
702
2181040
2496
如果没有特斯拉，
特斯拉从未存在，
特斯拉从未存在，
36:35
it would have to happen out of necessity.
703
2183560
2856
它也会因为有存在的必要性而出现。
36:38
It's tautological.
704
2186440
1576
这是赘述。
36:40
If you don't have sustainable energy,
it means you have unsustainable energy.
it means you have unsustainable energy.
705
2188040
3656
如果你没有可再生能源，
意味着你有不可再生能源。
意味着你有不可再生能源。
36:43
Eventually you will run out,
706
2191720
1616
最终能源会耗尽，
36:45
and the laws of economics
will drive civilization
will drive civilization
707
2193360
5816
经济定律会引导我们的文明
36:51
towards sustainable energy,
708
2199200
1656
朝着可再生能源发展，
36:52
inevitably.
709
2200880
1216
不可避免的。
36:54
The fundamental value
of a company like Tesla
of a company like Tesla
710
2202120
2976
像是特斯拉这样的企业的根本价值
36:57
is the degree to which it accelerates
the advent of sustainable energy,
the advent of sustainable energy,
711
2205120
4416
在于一定程度上加速
可再生能源的到来，
可再生能源的到来，
37:01
faster than it would otherwise occur.
712
2209560
1762
会比没有特斯拉的时候来得更快。
37:05
So when I think, like,
713
2213120
1216
所以当我想着，比如，
37:06
what is the fundamental good
of a company like Tesla,
of a company like Tesla,
714
2214360
2736
像是特斯拉这样的企业的核心价值，
37:09
I would say, hopefully,
715
2217120
1696
我会说，希望是，
37:10
if it accelerated that by a decade,
potentially more than a decade,
potentially more than a decade,
716
2218840
5616
如果它能够推动这个进程提前十年，
可能超过十年，
可能超过十年，
37:16
that would be quite a good thing to occur.
717
2224480
2136
那么这将是非常好的事情。
37:18
That's what I consider to be
718
2226640
1616
这是我所考虑的
37:20
the fundamental
aspirational good of Tesla.
aspirational good of Tesla.
719
2228280
4080
特斯拉公司最核心的雄心壮志。
37:25
Then there's becoming a multiplanet
species and space-faring civilization.
species and space-faring civilization.
720
2233480
6336
然后我想到了跨星球的物种
和在宇宙中分型的文明。
和在宇宙中分型的文明。
37:31
This is not inevitable.
721
2239840
1936
这并不是必然发生的。
37:33
It's very important to appreciate
this is not inevitable.
this is not inevitable.
722
2241800
2696
这件事情并不是必然发生，
这非常重要。
这非常重要。
37:36
The sustainable energy future
I think is largely inevitable,
I think is largely inevitable,
723
2244520
3096
可再生能源的未来，我觉得
很大程度上是必然发生的。
很大程度上是必然发生的。
37:39
but being a space-faring civilization
is definitely not inevitable.
is definitely not inevitable.
724
2247640
4736
但是成为能够在宇宙间飞行的文明
显然不是必然要发生的未来。
显然不是必然要发生的未来。
37:44
If you look at the progress in space,
725
2252400
4176
如果你看下太空技术的进步，
37:48
in 1969 you were able
to send somebody to the moon.
to send somebody to the moon.
726
2256600
2600
在1969年我们就可以把人送上月球。
37:52
1969.
727
2260040
1200
1969.
37:54
Then we had the Space Shuttle.
728
2262840
2896
后来我们有了航天飞机。
37:57
The Space Shuttle could only
take people to low Earth orbit.
take people to low Earth orbit.
729
2265760
3416
航天飞机只能够把人送入低轨。
38:01
Then the Space Shuttle retired,
730
2269200
1536
然后航天飞机退休了，
38:02
and the United States
could take no one to orbit.
could take no one to orbit.
731
2270760
2400
然后美国就没有办法把人送入轨道了。
38:06
So that's the trend.
732
2274320
1256
所以这就是趋势。
38:07
The trend is like down to nothing.
733
2275600
2680
这个趋势是退化到什么都没有。
38:11
People are mistaken when they think
734
2279560
2376
人们有时候会错误的理解
38:13
that technology
just automatically improves.
just automatically improves.
735
2281960
2096
觉得技术肯定是自动的提升的。
38:16
It does not automatically improve.
736
2284080
1896
技术并不会自动的改进。
38:18
It only improves if a lot of people
work very hard to make it better,
work very hard to make it better,
737
2286000
4656
只有当很多人投入大量精力
努力去改善的时候才有可能。
努力去改善的时候才有可能。
38:22
and actually it will, I think,
by itself degrade, actually.
by itself degrade, actually.
738
2290680
5776
我想实际上，技术本身是会退化的。
38:28
You look at great civilizations
like Ancient Egypt,
like Ancient Egypt,
739
2296480
2416
你看看古埃及的伟大文明，
38:30
and they were able to make the pyramids,
740
2298920
1936
他们当时建造了金字塔，
38:32
and they forgot how to do that.
741
2300880
1816
他们现在忘记怎么建造的了。
38:34
And then the Romans,
they built these incredible aqueducts.
they built these incredible aqueducts.
742
2302720
2816
还有罗马人，他们建造了难以置信的
沟渠系统。
沟渠系统。
38:37
They forgot how to do it.
743
2305560
1200
他们也忘记怎么建造的了。
38:40
CA: Elon, it almost seems,
listening to you
listening to you
744
2308720
2056
CA：伊隆，看起来，听你说的话
38:42
and looking at the different
things you've done,
things you've done,
745
2310800
2256
以及看着你做的这些不同的工作，
38:45
that you've got this unique
double motivation on everything
double motivation on everything
746
2313080
2776
你的每件事情都有这独特的
双重动机，
双重动机，
38:47
that I find so interesting.
747
2315880
1320
我发现这很有意思。
38:51
One is this desire to work
for humanity's long-term good.
for humanity's long-term good.
748
2319720
4576
一个动机是渴望做人类长远福祉的事。
38:56
The other is the desire
to do something exciting.
to do something exciting.
749
2324320
2336
另一个是做激动人心的事。
38:58
And often it feels like you feel
like you need the one to drive the other.
like you need the one to drive the other.
750
2326680
4696
而且看起来你经常会觉得需要用
一个动机去主导另一个动机。
一个动机去主导另一个动机。
39:03
With Tesla, you want
to have sustainable energy,
to have sustainable energy,
751
2331400
3096
对特斯拉你希望有可再生能源，
39:06
so you made these super sexy,
exciting cars to do it.
exciting cars to do it.
752
2334520
4536
所以你做出了这样炫酷的轿车
来达到这个目的。
来达到这个目的。
39:11
Solar energy, we need to get there,
753
2339080
1696
太阳能，我们需要实现它，
39:12
so we need to make these beautiful roofs.
754
2340800
1953
所以我们需要这些漂亮的屋顶。
39:14
We haven't even spoken
about your newest thing,
about your newest thing,
755
2342777
2199
我们还没有谈论到你最新的东西，
39:17
which we don't have time to do,
756
2345000
1536
我们的时间有限，
39:18
but you want to save humanity from bad AI,
757
2346560
2336
但是你希望避免坏的AI毁灭人性，
39:20
and so you're going to create
this really cool brain-machine interface
this really cool brain-machine interface
758
2348920
3296
所以你想要创建一个真的很酷的
人脑跟机器的接口
人脑跟机器的接口
39:24
to give us all infinite memory
and telepathy and so forth.
and telepathy and so forth.
759
2352240
3856
给我们无限的记忆和心灵感应等等。
39:28
And on Mars, it feels
like what you're saying is,
like what you're saying is,
760
2356120
2696
关于火星，感觉你说的是，
39:30
yeah, we need to save humanity
761
2358840
3696
对，我们需要拯救人类，
39:34
and have a backup plan,
762
2362560
1376
需要有一个备份方案，
39:35
but also we need to inspire humanity,
763
2363960
3256
但是同时我们也需要激发人性，
39:39
and this is a way to inspire.
764
2367240
4520
这是激励我们的方式。
39:45
EM: I think the value
of beauty and inspiration
of beauty and inspiration
765
2373680
3776
EM：我认为美和激励人心的价值
39:49
is very much underrated,
766
2377480
1976
被大大的低估了，
39:51
no question.
767
2379480
1576
毫无疑问。
39:53
But I want to be clear.
768
2381080
1256
但是我想要澄清一点。
39:54
I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.
769
2382360
1816
我不想成为谁的救世主。
39:56
That is not the --
770
2384200
1200
那不是 ——
39:58
I'm just trying to think about the future
771
2386240
3776
我只是想要想象未来
40:02
and not be sad.
772
2390040
1200
希望不要失望。
40:04
(Applause)
773
2392400
2096
（掌声）
40:06
CA: Beautiful statement.
774
2394520
1200
CA：完美的说辞。
40:10
I think everyone here would agree
775
2398200
1576
我想每个人都会同意
40:11
that it is not --
776
2399800
1200
那不是 ——
40:13
None of this is going
to happen inevitably.
to happen inevitably.
777
2401800
2056
没有任何一件事情
是确定会发生的。
是确定会发生的。
40:15
The fact that in your mind,
you dream this stuff,
you dream this stuff,
778
2403880
3656
你脑海中的这些事实，
你梦想的东西，
你梦想的东西，
40:19
you dream stuff that no one else
would dare dream,
would dare dream,
779
2407560
2576
你梦想的东西没有人敢这么做梦，
40:22
or no one else
would be capable of dreaming
would be capable of dreaming
780
2410160
2656
或者没有其他人能够将梦想
40:24
at the level of complexity that you do.
781
2412840
3656
达到你这个能力和级别的复杂程度。
40:28
The fact that you do that, Elon Musk,
is a really remarkable thing.
is a really remarkable thing.
782
2416520
3176
事实上你做的事情，伊隆·马斯克，
真的都很了不起。
真的都很了不起。
40:31
Thank you for helping us all
to dream a bit bigger.
to dream a bit bigger.
783
2419720
2696
感谢你让我们的梦想都变大了一点。
40:34
EM: But you'll tell me if it ever
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
784
2422440
3496
EM：但是当我开始变得有些疯狂的时候，
你们会提醒我的，对吧？
你们会提醒我的，对吧？
40:37
(Laughter)
785
2425960
2496
（笑声）
40:40
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk.
That was really, really fantastic.
That was really, really fantastic.
786
2428480
3096
CA：谢谢你，伊隆·马斯克。
这真的非常、非常的棒。
这真的非常、非常的棒。
40:43
That was really fantastic.
787
2431600
1416
真的非常棒。
40:45
(Applause)
788
2433040
4080
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneurElon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Why you should listen
At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.
At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com