TED2017
Tim Kruger: Can we stop climate change by removing CO2 from the air?
蒂姆·克鲁格: 我们能通过清除空气中的二氧化碳来阻止气候变化吗？
Filmed:
Readability: 4.2
1,548,005 views
我们能否解决气候变化问题？地球工程学者蒂姆·克鲁格想试试。他分享了一个很有希望的可能性：用天然气发电的方式，将空气中的二氧化碳去除掉。了解更多——无论是它的潜力还是风险——关于这个需要创造力、慎重和大规模的干涉的领域，以此来阻止全球变暖已经带来的灾难性后果。
Tim Kruger - Geoengineering researcher
Tim Kruger researches geoengineering: techniques to counteract climate change by deliberate, large-scale intervention in the earth system -- either by reflecting sunlight back into space or by reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Full bio
Tim Kruger researches geoengineering: techniques to counteract climate change by deliberate, large-scale intervention in the earth system -- either by reflecting sunlight back into space or by reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
To avoid dangerous climate change,
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为了避免危险的气候变化，
我们需要迅速减少排放。
00:15
we're going to need
to cut emissions rapidly.
to cut emissions rapidly.
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00:18
That should be a pretty
uncontentious statement,
uncontentious statement,
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这一点毋庸置疑，
00:21
certainly with this audience.
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在座各位都明白。
但还有一点同样毋庸置疑：
00:23
But here's something
that's slightly more contentious:
that's slightly more contentious:
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00:26
it's not going to be enough.
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就是仅仅降排放是不够的。
00:29
We will munch our way through
our remaining carbon budget
our remaining carbon budget
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我们要想尽办法
在未来几年内，
在未来几年内，
00:33
for one and a half degrees
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将我们剩余的碳预算
00:34
in a few short years,
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控制在1到1.5度之内，
00:37
and the two degree budget
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在大概未来20年里，
将其控制在2度之内。
00:38
in about two decades.
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我们不仅要极度迅速地
降低碳排放，
降低碳排放，
00:41
We need to not only cut emissions
extremely rapidly,
extremely rapidly,
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00:45
we also need to take carbon dioxide
out of the atmosphere.
out of the atmosphere.
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我们还要减少大气层中
已经有的二氧化碳。
已经有的二氧化碳。
00:50
Thank you.
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谢谢。
00:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:53
I work assessing a whole range
of these proposed techniques
of these proposed techniques
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我的工作就是评估
这一系列的技术，
这一系列的技术，
00:58
to see if they can work.
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去看看它们究竟有没有用。
01:00
We could use plants to take CO2 out,
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我们可以用植物吸收二氧化碳，
01:04
and then store it in trees,
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然后保存在树木里，
01:06
in the soil, deep underground
or in the oceans.
or in the oceans.
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土壤中，地底下，或者深海中。
01:09
We could build large machines,
so-called artificial trees,
so-called artificial trees,
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我们可以建造大型机器，
即所谓的人工树木，
即所谓的人工树木，
01:14
that will scrub CO2 from the air.
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可以从空气中吸收二氧化碳。
这些想法要成为现实，
01:16
For these ideas to be feasible,
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01:18
we need to understand
whether they can be applied
whether they can be applied
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我们需要了解，
它们是否可以以安全、经济以及
它们是否可以以安全、经济以及
01:21
at a vast scale in a way that is safe,
economic and socially acceptable.
economic and socially acceptable.
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被社会所接受的方式被大规模应用。
01:27
All of these ideas come with tradeoffs.
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所有这些想法
都需要权衡。
都需要权衡。
01:30
None of them are perfect,
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没有哪一个是完美的，
01:32
but many have potential.
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但很多都非常有前景。
01:35
It's unlikely that any one of them
will solve it on its own.
will solve it on its own.
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没有哪一个方案能独自解决问题。
没有捷径，
01:38
There is no silver bullet,
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01:40
but potentially together,
they may form the silver buckshot
they may form the silver buckshot
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但联合起来，它们
就可能发挥很大的作用，
就可能发挥很大的作用，
01:43
that we need to stop
climate change in its tracks.
climate change in its tracks.
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能一举解决气候变化问题。
01:48
I'm working independently
on one particular idea
on one particular idea
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我独立研究其中一个方案，
即用天然气来发电
01:52
which uses natural gas
to generate electricity
to generate electricity
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01:55
in a way that takes
carbon dioxide out of the air.
carbon dioxide out of the air.
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来从空气中吸收二氧化碳。
01:59
Huh? How does that work?
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啊？怎么做到的？
02:01
So the Origen Power Process
feeds natural gas into a fuel cell.
feeds natural gas into a fuel cell.
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奥利金发电过程：
将天然气加入燃料机能中，
将天然气加入燃料机能中，
02:06
About half the chemical energy
is converted into electricity,
is converted into electricity,
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其中一半的化学能转化为电能，
02:10
and the remainder into heat,
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剩下的转化为热，
可以用来分解石灰岩，
02:12
which is used to break down limestone
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02:15
into lime and carbon dioxide.
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得到石灰和二氧化碳。
02:17
Now at this point, you're probably
thinking that I'm nuts.
thinking that I'm nuts.
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到这一步，你们可能会想
这人是个傻子吧。
这人是个傻子吧。
02:21
It's actually generating carbon dioxide.
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这实际上是在产生二氧化碳。
02:24
But the key point is,
all of the carbon dioxide generated,
all of the carbon dioxide generated,
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关键在于，所有产生的二氧化碳，
02:28
both from the fuel cell
and from the lime kiln, is pure,
and from the lime kiln, is pure,
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无论是来自燃料机能
还是石灰岩，都是纯净的，
还是石灰岩，都是纯净的，
02:31
and that's really important,
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那是非常重要的，
因为这意味着你要么
可以使用二氧化碳，
可以使用二氧化碳，
02:33
because it means you can
either use that carbon dioxide
either use that carbon dioxide
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02:35
or you can store it away
deep underground at low cost.
deep underground at low cost.
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要么可以用很低的成本
将它们存放到地底深处。
将它们存放到地底深处。
02:40
And then the lime that you produce
can be used in industrial processes,
can be used in industrial processes,
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生产出来的石灰
可以用在工业过程中，
可以用在工业过程中，
02:45
and in being used,
it scrubs CO2 out of the air.
it scrubs CO2 out of the air.
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在使用过程中，它可以
吸收空气中的二氧化碳。
吸收空气中的二氧化碳。
02:50
Overall, the process is carbon negative.
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整体来看，这个过程
是消耗二氧化碳的。
是消耗二氧化碳的。
02:52
It removes carbon dioxide from the air.
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它从空气中吸收二氧化碳。
02:56
If you normally generate
electricity from natural gas,
electricity from natural gas,
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如果你通常用天然气发电，
03:01
you emit about 400 grams
of CO2 into the air
of CO2 into the air
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大概每千瓦时有400克二氧化碳
03:04
for every kilowatt-hour.
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要排放到空气中。
03:07
With this process,
that figure is minus 600.
that figure is minus 600.
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通过上面这个过程
那个数字是负600克。
那个数字是负600克。
03:13
At the moment, power
generation is responsible
generation is responsible
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目前，发电过程占了
03:15
for about a quarter
of all carbon dioxide emissions.
of all carbon dioxide emissions.
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所有二氧化碳
排放的四分之一。
排放的四分之一。
03:20
Hypothetically, if you replaced
all power generation with this process,
all power generation with this process,
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理论上讲，如果能将发电过程
用刚刚这种方式取代，
用刚刚这种方式取代，
03:25
then you would not only eliminate all
of the emissions from power generation
of the emissions from power generation
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我们不仅可以将发电产生的
二氧化碳全部消除，
二氧化碳全部消除，
03:29
but you would start removing emissions
from other sectors as well,
from other sectors as well,
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还可以减少在其它
领域产生的排放，
领域产生的排放，
03:33
potentially cutting 60 percent
of overall carbon emissions.
of overall carbon emissions.
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整体上可能降低60%的碳排放。
03:38
You could even use the lime
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你甚至可以将石灰
直接投入海水，来抵消海水酸化，
03:41
to add it directly to seawater
to counteract ocean acidification,
to counteract ocean acidification,
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03:46
one of the other issues that is caused
by CO2 in the atmosphere.
by CO2 in the atmosphere.
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这是大气中二氧化碳增多
导致的另一个问题。
导致的另一个问题。
03:51
In fact, you get more bang for your buck.
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实际上这还有更大的好处。
03:54
You absorb about twice as much
carbon dioxide when you add it to seawater
carbon dioxide when you add it to seawater
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当你把石灰投入海水，
相比将其用于工业，
相比将其用于工业，
这能吸收2倍的二氧化碳。
03:58
as when you use it industrially.
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04:01
But this is where it gets
really complicated.
really complicated.
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但这也是事情开始变得
复杂的地方。
复杂的地方。
尽管抵消海洋酸化是一件好事，
04:03
While counteracting ocean
acidification is a good thing,
acidification is a good thing,
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但我们还没完全搞清楚
它对环境产生的影响，
它对环境产生的影响，
04:08
we don't fully understand
what the environmental consequences are,
what the environmental consequences are,
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所以我们要评估清楚
解决方案和问题本身，
解决方案和问题本身，
04:12
and so we need to assess
whether this treatment
whether this treatment
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04:15
is actually better than the disease
that it is seeking to cure.
that it is seeking to cure.
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两害相权取其轻。
04:18
We need to put in place
step-by-step governance
step-by-step governance
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我们要边试边做，
04:22
for experiments to assess this safely.
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仔细评估其可行性。
04:25
And the scale:
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说到规模：
04:28
to avoid dangerous climate change,
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如果要避免危险的气候变化，
04:29
we are going to need
to remove trillions --
to remove trillions --
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我们需要减少几万亿——
04:32
and yes, that's trillions with a T --
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没错，是几万亿——
04:34
trillions of tons of carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere in the decades ahead.
from the atmosphere in the decades ahead.
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在未来数十年内，
几万亿吨二氧化碳。
几万亿吨二氧化碳。
04:40
It will cost a few percent of GDP --
think defense-sized expenditure,
think defense-sized expenditure,
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这将花掉一部分GDP——
想想国防开支，
想想国防开支，
04:45
lots of industrial activity
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众多的工业活动，
以及不可避免的、有害的副作用。
04:47
and inevitably harmful side effects.
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但如果这个规模看起来很大
04:51
But if the scale seems enormous,
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04:53
it is only because
of the scale of the problem
of the scale of the problem
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仅仅是因为我们想要解决的
04:55
that we are seeking to solve.
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问题本身的规模
04:57
It's enormous as well.
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也很大。
05:00
We can no longer avoid
these thorny issues.
these thorny issues.
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我们不可以再
逃避这种尖锐的问题。
逃避这种尖锐的问题。
无论走哪条路都会面临风险：
05:03
We face risks whichever way we turn:
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要么是被气候变化改变的世界，
05:06
a world changed by climate change
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05:08
or a world changed by climate change
and our efforts to counter climate change.
and our efforts to counter climate change.
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要么是被气候变化改变的世界
加上我们努力对抗气候的变化。
加上我们努力对抗气候的变化。
05:14
Would that it were not so,
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无论怎样，
05:16
but we can no longer afford
to close our eyes, block our ears,
to close our eyes, block our ears,
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我们都不能视而不见，充耳不闻，
05:19
and say la-la-la.
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自己骗自己了。
05:21
We need to grow up and face
the consequences of our actions.
the consequences of our actions.
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我们要像成年人一样，
面对自己行动带来的后果。
面对自己行动带来的后果。
05:25
(Applause)
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（掌声）
05:30
Does talk of curing climate change
undermine the will to cut emissions?
undermine the will to cut emissions?
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谈论终结气候变化会不会
减弱我们减少排放的意愿？
减弱我们减少排放的意愿？
这是一个真正的担忧，
05:37
This is a real concern,
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05:38
so we need to emphasize the paramount
importance of reducing emissions
importance of reducing emissions
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因此我们要强调
减排的极端重要性，
减排的极端重要性，
05:43
and how speculative these ideas are.
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以及这些方案的风险性。
05:46
But having done so,
we still need to examine them.
we still need to examine them.
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但与此同时，我们
仍需要检查这些方案。
仍需要检查这些方案。
05:50
Can we cure climate change?
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我们能阻止气候变化吗？
05:52
I don't know, but we certainly
can't if we don't try.
can't if we don't try.
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我不知道，但如果
我们不尝试就肯定不行。
我们不尝试就肯定不行。
05:56
We need ambition without arrogance.
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我们要有雄心壮志，要保持谦卑。
05:59
We need the ambition
to restore the atmosphere,
to restore the atmosphere,
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我们要有志恢复大气层，
06:03
to draw down carbon dioxide
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减少二氧化碳
到和一个稳定的气候和
健康的海洋兼容的水平。
健康的海洋兼容的水平。
06:05
back to a level that is compatible
with a stable climate and healthy oceans.
with a stable climate and healthy oceans.
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06:10
This will be an enormous undertaking.
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这将是一个艰巨的任务。
06:12
You could describe it
as a cathedral project.
as a cathedral project.
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你可以将它类比建造一座教堂。
06:16
Those involved at the outset
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那些最开始参与的人，
06:18
may draft the plans
and dig the foundations,
and dig the foundations,
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可能设计了图纸，挖好了地基，
06:21
but they will not raise the spire
to its full height.
to its full height.
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但他们不会一直做
直到教堂的尖顶高耸入云。
直到教堂的尖顶高耸入云。
06:24
That task, that privilege,
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这项任务，这项殊荣，
属于我们的后代。
06:26
belongs to our descendants.
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06:28
None of us will see that day,
but we must start in the hope
but we must start in the hope
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我们无缘见证那一天，
但我们必须开始行动，
但我们必须开始行动，
06:32
that future generations
will be able to finish the job.
will be able to finish the job.
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满怀希望，我们的后代
会完成这项工作。
会完成这项工作。
06:36
So, do you want to change the world?
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那么，你们想不想改变世界？
06:40
I don't.
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我不想。
06:41
I do not seek the change the world,
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我不寻求改变世界，
06:44
but rather keep it as it's meant to be.
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我更想将它保持在应有的样子。
06:47
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
06:48
(Applause)
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（掌声）
06:54
Chris Anderson: Thanks. I just want
to ask you a couple of other questions.
to ask you a couple of other questions.
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克里斯·安德森：谢谢
我想问你几个问题。
我想问你几个问题。
06:57
Tell us a bit more about this idea
of putting lime in the ocean.
of putting lime in the ocean.
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跟我们说说把石灰
投入海洋这件事吧。
投入海洋这件事吧。
07:01
I mean, on the face of it,
it's pretty compelling --
it's pretty compelling --
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乍一听，这主意很引人入胜——
07:03
anti-ocean acidification --
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防止海洋酸化——
07:05
and it absorbs more CO2.
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吸收更多的二氧化碳。
07:08
You talked about,
we need to do an experiment on this.
we need to do an experiment on this.
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你刚刚提到，我们还需要进行实验。
那么一个可靠的实验
应该是什么样的呢？
应该是什么样的呢？
07:11
What would a responsible
experiment look like?
experiment look like?
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蒂姆·克鲁格：我认为
需要进行一系列的实验，
需要进行一系列的实验，
07:13
Tim Kruger: So I think you need to do
a series of experiments,
a series of experiments,
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但是你要一步一步来。
07:16
but you need to do them
just very small stage-by-stage.
just very small stage-by-stage.
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跟测试一种新药一样，
07:18
In the same way,
when you're trialing a new drug,
when you're trialing a new drug,
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你不能一上来就进行人体实验。
07:21
you wouldn't just go
into human trials straight off.
into human trials straight off.
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07:23
You would do a small experiment.
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你要先进行小范围实验。
07:25
And so the first things to do
are experiments entirely on land,
are experiments entirely on land,
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因此最初的实验是
完全在陆地上进行，
完全在陆地上进行，
07:29
in special containers,
away from the environment.
away from the environment.
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在特殊的容器中，
远离真实环境。
远离真实环境。
直到你确定它可以安全进行，
07:33
And then once you are confident
that that can be done safely,
that that can be done safely,
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你才会进入下一阶段。
07:36
you move to the next stage.
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如果不确定，就不会继续。
07:37
If you're not confident, you don't.
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要一步一步来。
07:39
But step by step.
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07:41
CA: And who would fund such experiments?
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CA：那么谁来资助这些实验？
07:43
Because they kind of impact
the whole planet at some level.
the whole planet at some level.
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因为某种程度上
这会影响到整个地球。
这会影响到整个地球。
07:47
Is that why nothing is happening on this?
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是不是因为这个
所以目前还没有进展？
所以目前还没有进展？
07:50
TK: So I think you can do small-scale
experiments in national waters,
experiments in national waters,
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TK：我认为可以在全国海域
进行小规模实验，
进行小规模实验，
07:53
and then it's probably the requirement
of national funders to do that.
of national funders to do that.
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这可能需要国家的资助来完成。
07:59
But ultimately, if you wanted
to counter ocean acidification in this way
to counter ocean acidification in this way
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但最终，如果你想要在全球范围内
以这样的方式解决海洋酸化，
08:04
on a global scale,
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你需要在公海进行操作，
08:05
you would need to do it
in international waters,
in international waters,
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需要国际社会的支持。
08:07
and then you would need to have
an international community working on it.
an international community working on it.
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08:11
CA: Even in national waters,
you know, the ocean's all connected.
you know, the ocean's all connected.
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CA：即便是在国家领海
海洋是互相联通的。
海洋是互相联通的。
石灰也会漂到各处。
08:14
That lime is going to get out there.
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人们对于这种实验非常愤怒，
08:16
And people feel outraged
about doing experiments on the planet,
about doing experiments on the planet,
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08:19
as we've heard.
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据我的了解。
你怎么应对？
08:21
How do you counter that?
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08:23
TK: I think you touch on something
which is really important.
which is really important.
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TK：我认为你提到了一个
非常重要的问题。
非常重要的问题。
08:26
It's about a social license to operate.
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就是社会对于某项行动的完全认可。
08:28
And I think it may be
that it is impossible to do,
that it is impossible to do,
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我认为这似乎是一件
不可能完成的任务，
不可能完成的任务，
08:32
but we need to have the courage to try,
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但我们必须要勇于尝试，
08:34
to move this forward,
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往前推进，
08:36
to see what we can do,
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看我们能做什么，
08:37
and to engage openly.
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并公开参与。
08:38
And we need to engage with people
in a transparent way.
in a transparent way.
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我们需要对人们开诚布公。
08:41
We need to ask them beforehand.
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我们要事先通知他们。
08:43
And I think if we ask them,
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我认为如果我们问了他们，
08:45
we have to be open to the possibility
that the answer will come back,
that the answer will come back,
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就要准备好面对可能的答案，
“不，不要这么干。”
08:49
"No, don't do it."
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08:50
CA: Thanks so much.
That was really fascinating.
That was really fascinating.
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CA：蒂姆，非常感谢。
非常棒的演讲。
非常棒的演讲。
TK：谢谢。（掌声）
08:53
TK: Thank you. (Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Kruger - Geoengineering researcherTim Kruger researches geoengineering: techniques to counteract climate change by deliberate, large-scale intervention in the earth system -- either by reflecting sunlight back into space or by reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Why you should listen
While it is essential that we reduce global carbon emissions, that isn't going to be enough to avoid dangerous climate change. Research into proposed geoengineering techniques could prove vital in the fight to protect our planet. At the Oxford Geoengineering Programme, Tim Kruger aims to assess the range of proposed geoengineering techniques to determine which, if any, could be both technically feasible and benign environmentally, socially and ethically.
Kruger, a James Martin Fellow at the University of Oxford, is a co-author of "The Oxford Principles," a draft code of conduct for geoengineering research. It calls for geoengineering to be regulated as a public good, for public participation in decision-making and for disclosure of research and open publication of results.
In addition to his work at Oxford, Kruger is also CEO of Origen Power, which is developing a process that uses natural gas to generate electricity in a way that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Tim Kruger | Speaker | TED.com