TED2017
Tim Kruger: Can we stop climate change by removing CO2 from the air?
提姆庫格: 我們能否將二氧化碳從空氣中除去，來阻止氣候變遷？
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Readability: 4.2
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我們能否消除氣候變遷？地質工程研究者提姆庫格想要試試看。他分享了一個理想的可能性：用天然氣來發電，且採用的方式能夠將二氧化碳從空氣中除去。來進一步了解這個爭議的領域──了解潛力以及風險──這個領域尋求有創意、深思熟慮、大規模的發明，來阻止那已經產生災難的全球暖化後果。
Tim Kruger - Geoengineering researcher
Tim Kruger researches geoengineering: techniques to counteract climate change by deliberate, large-scale intervention in the earth system -- either by reflecting sunlight back into space or by reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Full bio
Tim Kruger researches geoengineering: techniques to counteract climate change by deliberate, large-scale intervention in the earth system -- either by reflecting sunlight back into space or by reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
To avoid dangerous climate change,
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若要避免危險的氣候變遷，
00:15
we're going to need
to cut emissions rapidly.
to cut emissions rapidly.
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我們需要快速地將排放縮減。
00:18
That should be a pretty
uncontentious statement,
uncontentious statement,
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這段聲明應該是不會引起爭論的，
00:21
certainly with this audience.
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對你們這些觀眾肯定是如此。
00:23
But here's something
that's slightly more contentious:
that's slightly more contentious:
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但，以下就稍微比較爭議一點了：
00:26
it's not going to be enough.
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這麼做還不夠。
00:29
We will munch our way through
our remaining carbon budget
our remaining carbon budget
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我們會把剩餘的碳預算給用盡，
00:33
for one and a half degrees
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用在 1.5 度上，
00:34
in a few short years,
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只要短短幾年就會用盡，
00:37
and the two degree budget
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至於 2 度的預算，
00:38
in about two decades.
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大約會在二十年後用盡。
00:41
We need to not only cut emissions
extremely rapidly,
extremely rapidly,
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我們不僅需要極快速地將排放縮減，
00:45
we also need to take carbon dioxide
out of the atmosphere.
out of the atmosphere.
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我們也需要把二氧化碳
從大氣中除去。
從大氣中除去。
00:50
Thank you.
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謝謝你們。
00:52
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:53
I work assessing a whole range
of these proposed techniques
of these proposed techniques
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我的工作是在評估
各種這類的技術提案，
各種這類的技術提案，
00:58
to see if they can work.
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判斷它們能否奏效。
01:00
We could use plants to take CO2 out,
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我們能用植物來除去二氧化碳，
01:04
and then store it in trees,
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把二氧化碳儲存在樹木中、
01:06
in the soil, deep underground
or in the oceans.
or in the oceans.
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土壤中、地底深處，或海底深處。
01:09
We could build large machines,
so-called artificial trees,
so-called artificial trees,
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我們能建立大型機器，
所謂的人工樹木，
所謂的人工樹木，
01:14
that will scrub CO2 from the air.
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它們能把二氧化碳從空氣中清除。
01:16
For these ideas to be feasible,
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若要讓這些點子變成可行的，
01:18
we need to understand
whether they can be applied
whether they can be applied
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我們得要了解它們是否能用
01:21
at a vast scale in a way that is safe,
economic and socially acceptable.
economic and socially acceptable.
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安全、經濟，且被社會
接受的方式，做大範圍應用。
接受的方式，做大範圍應用。
01:27
All of these ideas come with tradeoffs.
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所有這些點子都有得失要權衡。
01:30
None of them are perfect,
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沒有一個是完美的，
01:32
but many have potential.
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但許多都有潛力。
01:35
It's unlikely that any one of them
will solve it on its own.
will solve it on its own.
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不太可能只用一個點子就解決問題。
沒有銀子彈（無敵的殺手鐧），
01:38
There is no silver bullet,
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01:40
but potentially together,
they may form the silver buckshot
they may form the silver buckshot
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但若把它們一併使用，
可能可以形成銀獵鹿霰彈，
可能可以形成銀獵鹿霰彈，
01:43
that we need to stop
climate change in its tracks.
climate change in its tracks.
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讓我們可以就地阻止氣候變遷。
01:48
I'm working independently
on one particular idea
on one particular idea
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我自己在獨立進行一個特別的點子，
01:52
which uses natural gas
to generate electricity
to generate electricity
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這個點子是用天然氣來發電，
01:55
in a way that takes
carbon dioxide out of the air.
carbon dioxide out of the air.
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這個方式可以把
二氧化碳從空氣中除去。
二氧化碳從空氣中除去。
01:59
Huh? How does that work?
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啊？這是什麼原理？
02:01
So the Origen Power Process
feeds natural gas into a fuel cell.
feeds natural gas into a fuel cell.
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Origen Power 處理程序是
將天然氣送入燃料電池中。
將天然氣送入燃料電池中。
02:06
About half the chemical energy
is converted into electricity,
is converted into electricity,
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大約一半的化學能會被轉換成電力，
02:10
and the remainder into heat,
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剩下的部分轉換成熱能，
02:12
which is used to break down limestone
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熱能是要用來分解石灰石，
02:15
into lime and carbon dioxide.
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將之變成石灰和二氧化碳。
02:17
Now at this point, you're probably
thinking that I'm nuts.
thinking that I'm nuts.
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在這個時點，你們可能認為我瘋了。
02:21
It's actually generating carbon dioxide.
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它是在產生二氧化碳啊。
02:24
But the key point is,
all of the carbon dioxide generated,
all of the carbon dioxide generated,
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重點是，所有產生出來的二氧化碳，
02:28
both from the fuel cell
and from the lime kiln, is pure,
and from the lime kiln, is pure,
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包括來自燃料電池和石灰窯的
二氧化碳，都是純的，
二氧化碳，都是純的，
02:31
and that's really important,
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這點非常重要，
02:33
because it means you can
either use that carbon dioxide
either use that carbon dioxide
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因為那意味著，
你可以用那些二氧化碳，
你可以用那些二氧化碳，
02:35
or you can store it away
deep underground at low cost.
deep underground at low cost.
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或是你可以用低成本
將它們儲存在地底深處。
將它們儲存在地底深處。
02:40
And then the lime that you produce
can be used in industrial processes,
can be used in industrial processes,
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而你產生的石灰就能被
用在工業生產過程中，
用在工業生產過程中，
02:45
and in being used,
it scrubs CO2 out of the air.
it scrubs CO2 out of the air.
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在使用的時候，它們就會把
空氣中的二氧化碳清除。
空氣中的二氧化碳清除。
02:50
Overall, the process is carbon negative.
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整體上，這個處理程序
產生的二氧化碳量是負值。
產生的二氧化碳量是負值。
02:52
It removes carbon dioxide from the air.
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意即它會把二氧化碳從空氣中除去。
02:56
If you normally generate
electricity from natural gas,
electricity from natural gas,
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一般來說如果你用天然氣來發電，
03:01
you emit about 400 grams
of CO2 into the air
of CO2 into the air
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每產生一千瓦小時的電力，
就會釋放出大約 400 公克的
就會釋放出大約 400 公克的
03:04
for every kilowatt-hour.
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二氧化碳到空氣中。
03:07
With this process,
that figure is minus 600.
that figure is minus 600.
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有了這個處理程序，
那個數字就變成了 -600 公克。
那個數字就變成了 -600 公克。
03:13
At the moment, power
generation is responsible
generation is responsible
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目前，所有的二氧化碳排放量
03:15
for about a quarter
of all carbon dioxide emissions.
of all carbon dioxide emissions.
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當中大約四分之一
是由發電所造成的。
是由發電所造成的。
03:20
Hypothetically, if you replaced
all power generation with this process,
all power generation with this process,
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根據假設，如果把所有的
發電方式都換成這個處理程序，
發電方式都換成這個處理程序，
03:25
then you would not only eliminate all
of the emissions from power generation
of the emissions from power generation
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那麼不但所有發電產生的
二氧化碳都會被除去，
二氧化碳都會被除去，
03:29
but you would start removing emissions
from other sectors as well,
from other sectors as well,
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還會開始除去其他部門
所排放的二氧化碳，
所排放的二氧化碳，
03:33
potentially cutting 60 percent
of overall carbon emissions.
of overall carbon emissions.
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可能可以縮減整體碳排放的 60%。
03:38
You could even use the lime
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你甚至可以使用石灰，
03:41
to add it directly to seawater
to counteract ocean acidification,
to counteract ocean acidification,
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把它直接加到海水中，
來對抗海水酸化，
來對抗海水酸化，
03:46
one of the other issues that is caused
by CO2 in the atmosphere.
by CO2 in the atmosphere.
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這是大氣中的二氧化碳
會造成的另一個問題。
會造成的另一個問題。
03:51
In fact, you get more bang for your buck.
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事實上，這是物超所值的。
03:54
You absorb about twice as much
carbon dioxide when you add it to seawater
carbon dioxide when you add it to seawater
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比起把它用在工業上，
當你把它加到海水中時，
當你把它加到海水中時，
可以吸收兩倍的二氧化碳。
03:58
as when you use it industrially.
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04:01
But this is where it gets
really complicated.
really complicated.
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但這就是複雜的地方了。
04:03
While counteracting ocean
acidification is a good thing,
acidification is a good thing,
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雖然對抗海水酸化是好事，
04:08
we don't fully understand
what the environmental consequences are,
what the environmental consequences are,
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我們尚未完全了解這麼做
對於環境會造成什麼後果，
對於環境會造成什麼後果，
04:12
and so we need to assess
whether this treatment
whether this treatment
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所以我們得要評估這項處理方式是否
04:15
is actually better than the disease
that it is seeking to cure.
that it is seeking to cure.
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真的有比它所想要治療的疾病更好。
04:18
We need to put in place
step-by-step governance
step-by-step governance
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我們需要準備好
按步就班的實驗管理，
按步就班的實驗管理，
04:22
for experiments to assess this safely.
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來安全地評估它。
04:25
And the scale:
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還有規模：
04:28
to avoid dangerous climate change,
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若要避免危險的氣候變遷，
04:29
we are going to need
to remove trillions --
to remove trillions --
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我們會需要從大氣中除去數兆──
04:32
and yes, that's trillions with a T --
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是的，我說的是「兆」──
04:34
trillions of tons of carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere in the decades ahead.
from the atmosphere in the decades ahead.
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數兆噸的二氧化碳，
且在接下來的數十年中要完成。
且在接下來的數十年中要完成。
04:40
It will cost a few percent of GDP --
think defense-sized expenditure,
think defense-sized expenditure,
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會需要花上幾個百分點的 GDP
──想想國防等級的花費、
──想想國防等級的花費、
04:45
lots of industrial activity
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許多的工業活動，
04:47
and inevitably harmful side effects.
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以及無可避免的有害副作用。
04:51
But if the scale seems enormous,
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但，如果覺得這個規模似乎很巨大，
04:53
it is only because
of the scale of the problem
of the scale of the problem
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那也是因為我們打算要解決的
問題本身的規模。
問題本身的規模。
04:55
that we are seeking to solve.
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04:57
It's enormous as well.
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它的規模也是很巨大的。
05:00
We can no longer avoid
these thorny issues.
these thorny issues.
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我們無法再繼續避開這些棘手議題。
05:03
We face risks whichever way we turn:
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不論我們轉向哪一邊，
都會面對風險：
都會面對風險：
05:06
a world changed by climate change
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一個被氣候變遷改變的世界，
05:08
or a world changed by climate change
and our efforts to counter climate change.
and our efforts to counter climate change.
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或是一個被氣候變遷改變的世界加上
我們為了反擊氣候變遷所做的努力。
我們為了反擊氣候變遷所做的努力。
05:14
Would that it were not so,
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希望情況不是那樣，
05:16
but we can no longer afford
to close our eyes, block our ears,
to close our eyes, block our ears,
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但我們沒有本錢再
閉上眼睛、關上耳朵，
閉上眼睛、關上耳朵，
然後說啦啦啦（表示不想聽）。
05:19
and say la-la-la.
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05:21
We need to grow up and face
the consequences of our actions.
the consequences of our actions.
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我們得要長大，並面對
我們的行為造成的後果。
我們的行為造成的後果。
05:25
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
05:30
Does talk of curing climate change
undermine the will to cut emissions?
undermine the will to cut emissions?
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談論消除氣候變遷是否
低估了想要縮減排放的意願？
低估了想要縮減排放的意願？
05:37
This is a real concern,
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這是真正該關心的事，
05:38
so we need to emphasize the paramount
importance of reducing emissions
importance of reducing emissions
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所以我們得要強調
排放減量的重要性有多高，
排放減量的重要性有多高，
05:43
and how speculative these ideas are.
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以及這些點子是多麼推測性的。
05:46
But having done so,
we still need to examine them.
we still need to examine them.
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但這麼做了之後，
我們仍然得要檢驗它們。
我們仍然得要檢驗它們。
05:50
Can we cure climate change?
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我們能夠消除氣候變遷嗎？
05:52
I don't know, but we certainly
can't if we don't try.
can't if we don't try.
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我不知道，但如果
我們不試肯定就不行。
我們不試肯定就不行。
05:56
We need ambition without arrogance.
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我們需要有野心但不能自大。
05:59
We need the ambition
to restore the atmosphere,
to restore the atmosphere,
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我們需要野心來恢復大氣，
06:03
to draw down carbon dioxide
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減少二氧化碳，
06:05
back to a level that is compatible
with a stable climate and healthy oceans.
with a stable climate and healthy oceans.
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減回到一個能配合
穩定氣候和健康海洋的量。
穩定氣候和健康海洋的量。
06:10
This will be an enormous undertaking.
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這會是一項龐大的工作。
06:12
You could describe it
as a cathedral project.
as a cathedral project.
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你們可以把它形容是
一個大教堂專案計畫。
一個大教堂專案計畫。
06:16
Those involved at the outset
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一開始就涉入的人，
06:18
may draft the plans
and dig the foundations,
and dig the foundations,
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可以擬草圖、挖地基，
06:21
but they will not raise the spire
to its full height.
to its full height.
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但他們無法把尖塔建到最高。
06:24
That task, that privilege,
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那項工作任務，那項特權，
06:26
belongs to our descendants.
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屬於我們的後代子孫。
06:28
None of us will see that day,
but we must start in the hope
but we must start in the hope
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我們都無法看見那一天，
但我們必須要帶著希望開始進行，
但我們必須要帶著希望開始進行，
06:32
that future generations
will be able to finish the job.
will be able to finish the job.
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希望未來的世代能夠完成這項工作。
06:36
So, do you want to change the world?
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所以，你們想要改變世界嗎？
06:40
I don't.
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我不想。
06:41
I do not seek the change the world,
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我尋求的不是改變世界，
06:44
but rather keep it as it's meant to be.
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而是讓它保持它該有的樣子。
06:47
Thank you.
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謝謝。
06:48
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
06:54
Chris Anderson: Thanks. I just want
to ask you a couple of other questions.
to ask you a couple of other questions.
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克里斯安德森：謝謝。
我想要問你幾個其他的問題。
我想要問你幾個其他的問題。
06:57
Tell us a bit more about this idea
of putting lime in the ocean.
of putting lime in the ocean.
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多告訴我們一點關於
將石灰放進海洋的這個點子。
將石灰放進海洋的這個點子。
07:01
I mean, on the face of it,
it's pretty compelling --
it's pretty compelling --
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我的意思是，乍聽之下，
它蠻引人入勝的──
它蠻引人入勝的──
07:03
anti-ocean acidification --
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抗海洋酸化──
07:05
and it absorbs more CO2.
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且它會吸收更多二氧化碳。
07:08
You talked about,
we need to do an experiment on this.
we need to do an experiment on this.
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你剛談到我們需要對此進行實驗。
07:11
What would a responsible
experiment look like?
experiment look like?
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負責的實驗應該是什麼樣子的？
07:13
Tim Kruger: So I think you need to do
a series of experiments,
a series of experiments,
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提姆庫格：我想，
你需要做一系列的實驗，
你需要做一系列的實驗，
07:16
but you need to do them
just very small stage-by-stage.
just very small stage-by-stage.
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但做法上需要以非常
細微的階段式進行。
細微的階段式進行。
07:18
In the same way,
when you're trialing a new drug,
when you're trialing a new drug,
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和試驗新藥物時用的方法相同，
07:21
you wouldn't just go
into human trials straight off.
into human trials straight off.
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你不會直接去做人體實驗。
07:23
You would do a small experiment.
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你會先做一些小實驗。
07:25
And so the first things to do
are experiments entirely on land,
are experiments entirely on land,
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所以，最先要做的
是完全在陸地上的實驗，
是完全在陸地上的實驗，
07:29
in special containers,
away from the environment.
away from the environment.
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在遠離環境的特殊容器中進行。
07:33
And then once you are confident
that that can be done safely,
that that can be done safely,
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等到你有信心能夠安全進行，
07:36
you move to the next stage.
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你再進入下一個階段。
07:37
If you're not confident, you don't.
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如果你沒信心，就不要。
07:39
But step by step.
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要一步一步來。
07:41
CA: And who would fund such experiments?
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克里斯：誰會資助這樣的實驗？
07:43
Because they kind of impact
the whole planet at some level.
the whole planet at some level.
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因為在某種層面來說，
這些實驗是對整個地球有影響的。
這些實驗是對整個地球有影響的。
07:47
Is that why nothing is happening on this?
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這是不是它還沒有發生的原因？
07:50
TK: So I think you can do small-scale
experiments in national waters,
experiments in national waters,
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提姆：我認為你可以在國家
水域內先做一些小規模的實驗，
水域內先做一些小規模的實驗，
07:53
and then it's probably the requirement
of national funders to do that.
of national funders to do that.
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這可能會需要國家級的
資助者才能辦到。
資助者才能辦到。
07:59
But ultimately, if you wanted
to counter ocean acidification in this way
to counter ocean acidification in this way
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但，最終，如果你想要
用這種方式對抗海洋酸化，
用這種方式對抗海洋酸化，
08:04
on a global scale,
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要做到全球的規模，
08:05
you would need to do it
in international waters,
in international waters,
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你就會需要在國際水域上進行，
08:07
and then you would need to have
an international community working on it.
an international community working on it.
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那麼你就會需要
國際社會來協助進行。
國際社會來協助進行。
08:11
CA: Even in national waters,
you know, the ocean's all connected.
you know, the ocean's all connected.
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克里斯：在國際水域，
你知道的，海洋都是相連的。
你知道的，海洋都是相連的。
08:14
That lime is going to get out there.
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石灰會跑出去。
08:16
And people feel outraged
about doing experiments on the planet,
about doing experiments on the planet,
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人們對於對地球做實驗感到憤慨，
08:19
as we've heard.
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我們聽過這樣的事。
08:21
How do you counter that?
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你要如何對付那樣的問題？
08:23
TK: I think you touch on something
which is really important.
which is really important.
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提姆：我想，你提到了很重要的事。
08:26
It's about a social license to operate.
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就是執行上的社會執照。
08:28
And I think it may be
that it is impossible to do,
that it is impossible to do,
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我想，也許不可能做到，
08:32
but we need to have the courage to try,
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但我們得要有勇氣去嘗試，
08:34
to move this forward,
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來把這件事向前推進，
08:36
to see what we can do,
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看看我們能什麼，
08:37
and to engage openly.
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並且公開進行。
08:38
And we need to engage with people
in a transparent way.
in a transparent way.
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我們需要用透明的方式讓人們參與。
08:41
We need to ask them beforehand.
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我們需要事先詢問他們。
08:43
And I think if we ask them,
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我想，如果我們詢問他們，
08:45
we have to be open to the possibility
that the answer will come back,
that the answer will come back,
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我們就得要開放接受
有可能會得到這樣的答案：
有可能會得到這樣的答案：
08:49
"No, don't do it."
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「不，不要做。」
08:50
CA: Thanks so much.
That was really fascinating.
That was really fascinating.
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克里斯：非常謝謝。很棒的演說。
08:53
TK: Thank you. (Applause)
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提姆：謝謝你。（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Kruger - Geoengineering researcherTim Kruger researches geoengineering: techniques to counteract climate change by deliberate, large-scale intervention in the earth system -- either by reflecting sunlight back into space or by reducing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Why you should listen
While it is essential that we reduce global carbon emissions, that isn't going to be enough to avoid dangerous climate change. Research into proposed geoengineering techniques could prove vital in the fight to protect our planet. At the Oxford Geoengineering Programme, Tim Kruger aims to assess the range of proposed geoengineering techniques to determine which, if any, could be both technically feasible and benign environmentally, socially and ethically.
Kruger, a James Martin Fellow at the University of Oxford, is a co-author of "The Oxford Principles," a draft code of conduct for geoengineering research. It calls for geoengineering to be regulated as a public good, for public participation in decision-making and for disclosure of research and open publication of results.
In addition to his work at Oxford, Kruger is also CEO of Origen Power, which is developing a process that uses natural gas to generate electricity in a way that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Tim Kruger | Speaker | TED.com