TEDGlobal>NYC
Robert Muggah: The biggest risks facing cities -- and some solutions
Robert Muggah: 城市面临的最大风险—以及解决方案
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采用了极好的新地图来展示城市脆弱性的互动界面和效果，Robert Muggah 重新考虑一个古老的想－城市不应该只是经济中心—他们也应该是政治的基础。环顾当今世界，从叙利亚、新加坡到首尔与其他城市，Muggah 传递了六条如何建造韧性城市的原则。“城市是未来发展的第一步，它们开放，具有创意和活力，民主自由，国家化，又很引人瞩目，”他说，“它们才是反民族主义的最好解药。”
Robert Muggah - Megacities expert
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, here's a prediction.
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有一个预言是这样的
00:15
If we get our cities right,
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如果我们搞好了城市
00:17
we just might survive the 21st century.
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我们就可以平安活过二十一世纪
00:22
We get them wrong,
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反之，如果我们弄糟了
00:24
and we're done for.
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我们就完蛋了
00:26
Cities are the most extraordinary
experiment in social engineering
experiment in social engineering
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在人类目前为止的所有社会工程里
00:29
that we humans have ever come up with.
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城市是最伟大的尝试
如果你生活在城市
00:32
If you live in a city,
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甚至是和全世界百分之二十的城市人口一样
00:33
and even if you live in a slum --
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00:35
which 20 percent of the world's
urban population does --
urban population does --
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住在贫民窟里
00:38
you're likely to be healthier,
wealthier, better educated
wealthier, better educated
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你都会比别人更加健康，富有，有教养
并且比你那些住在乡村的表亲们长寿
00:41
and live longer than your country cousins.
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每个星期就有三百万的人移居城市
00:44
There's a reason why three million people
are moving to cities
are moving to cities
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这不是没有原因的
00:48
every single week.
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未来的第一步总发生在城市里
00:49
Cities are where the future happens first.
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00:53
They're open, they're creative,
they're dynamic, they're democratic,
they're dynamic, they're democratic,
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这里开放，创新，具有活力，民主
城市是国际化的
00:57
they're cosmopolitan,
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让人着迷的
00:58
they're sexy.
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也是反动民族主义的解药
01:00
They're the perfect antidote
to reactionary nationalism.
to reactionary nationalism.
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但是城市有它黑暗的一面
01:06
But cities have a dark side.
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它只占据世界百分之三的面积
01:09
They take up just three percent
of the world's surface area,
of the world's surface area,
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但却消耗着百分之七十五的能源
01:12
but they account for more than 75 percent
of our energy consumption,
of our energy consumption,
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01:15
and they emit 80 percent
of our greenhouse gases.
of our greenhouse gases.
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并且产生百分之八十的温室气体
01:19
There are hundreds of thousands
of people who die in our cities
of people who die in our cities
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每年有数以千计的人
在城市里死于暴力行为
01:24
every single year from violence,
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而死于车祸和污染
01:25
and millions more who are killed
as a result of car accidents
as a result of car accidents
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更有数百万人
01:29
and pollution.
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我居住在巴西
01:30
In Brazil, where I live,
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全球50个谋杀率最高的城市中，
巴西一国占据25个
巴西一国占据25个
01:32
we've got 25 of the 50 most homicidal
cities on the planet.
cities on the planet.
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01:37
And a quarter of our cities
have chronic water shortages --
have chronic water shortages --
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并且四分之一的城市
有长期水资源短缺的问题
有长期水资源短缺的问题
还是在全国百分之二十已知水储量的基础上
01:40
and this, in a country with 20 percent
of the known water reserves.
of the known water reserves.
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所以城市具有两面性
01:45
So cities are dual-edged.
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其中的问题是
01:47
Part of the problem is that,
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避开人们熟悉的东西方大城市不讲
01:49
apart from a handful of megacities
in the West and the Far East,
in the West and the Far East,
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我们不了解那些
01:52
we don't know that much
about the thousands of cities
about the thousands of cities
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在非洲、拉丁美洲、亚洲的成百上千的城市
01:55
in Africa, in Latin America, in Asia,
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01:58
where 90 percent of all future
population growth is set to take place.
population growth is set to take place.
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而那里却有未来百分之九十的人口增长
为什么会产生这样的知识缺口呢？
02:03
So why this knowledge gap?
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有一部分原因是
02:05
Well, part of the problem
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我们还在透过民族国家的视角看世界
02:06
is that we still see the world
through the lens of nation-states.
through the lens of nation-states.
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我们还封闭在十七世纪的模式里
02:11
We're still locked
in a 17th-century paradigm
in a 17th-century paradigm
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狭隘，崇尚国家最高统治权
02:15
of parochial national sovereignty.
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然而，在十七世纪里
02:18
And yet, in the 1600's,
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当民族国家进入全盛时期
02:19
when nation-states were really
coming into their own,
coming into their own,
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全世界少于百分之一的人口
02:22
less than one percent
of the world's population
of the world's population
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居住于城市
02:24
resided in a city.
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今天，城市人口增长到百分之五十四
02:26
Today, it's 54 percent.
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更甚，2050年前
城市人口将增长到百分之七十
城市人口将增长到百分之七十
02:28
And by 2050, it will be
closer to 70 percent.
closer to 70 percent.
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世界改变了
02:33
So the world has changed.
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02:34
We have these 193 nation-states,
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如今全世界有193个国家
但是我们有同样多数量的城市
02:38
but we have easily as many cities
that are beginning to rival them
that are beginning to rival them
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可以在力量和影响上与之竞争
02:41
in power and influence.
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以纽约为例
02:43
Just look at New York.
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大苹果城（纽约别名）拥有850万人口
02:44
The Big Apple has 8.5 million people
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年度财物预算800亿美元
02:47
and an annual budget
of 80 billion dollars.
of 80 billion dollars.
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城市GDP1.5万亿美元
02:51
Its GDP is 1.5 trillion,
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总计超过阿根廷和澳大利亚
02:53
which puts it higher
than Argentina and Australia,
than Argentina and Australia,
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尼日利亚和南非
02:57
Nigeria and South Africa.
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它拥有大约4万位警员
03:00
Its roughly 40,000 police officers
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是全世界最大规模的警察局之一
03:02
means it has one of the largest
police departments in the world,
police departments in the world,
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可与国相竞
03:05
rivaling all but
the largest nation-states.
the largest nation-states.
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但是像纽约
03:09
But cities like New York
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圣保罗
03:11
or São Paulo
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约翰尼斯堡
03:12
or Johannesburg
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达卡
03:14
or Dhaka
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或者上海
03:15
or Shanghai --
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它们在经济上影响力巨大
03:16
they're punching above
their weight economically,
their weight economically,
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却在政治领域上稍逊一筹
03:18
but below their weight politically.
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我们要改变这种状态
03:21
And that's going to have to change.
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如果想要改变
03:23
Cities are going to have to find
their political voice
their political voice
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城市必须寻找它的政治发言权
03:25
if we want to change things.
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03:28
Now, I want to talk to you
a little bit about the risks
a little bit about the risks
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现在，我想和你们谈一谈
城市面临的风险
03:31
that cities are facing --
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那些巨大的风险
03:32
some of the big mega-risks.
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我也会简短地提出一些解决方案
03:33
I'm also going to talk to you briefly
about some of the solutions.
about some of the solutions.
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我会用一个由卡耐基梅隆CREATE研究室
03:36
I'm going to do this
using a big data visualization
using a big data visualization
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和我个人的，以及许多其他的研究室
03:39
that was developed with Carnegie Mellon's
CREATE Lab and my institute,
CREATE Lab and my institute,
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所开发的大数据可视化的方法
03:42
along with many, many others.
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我想要你去想象一个
不是由国家所组成的世界
不是由国家所组成的世界
03:44
I want you to first imagine the world
not as made up of nation-states,
not as made up of nation-states,
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而是由城市所组成的世界
03:47
but as made up of cities.
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现在你所看到的是一个个单独的城市
03:50
What you see here is every single city
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他们都拥有至少25万城市人口
03:52
with a population
of a quarter million people or more.
of a quarter million people or more.
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暂时不谈技术细节
03:56
Now, without going into technical detail,
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圆点越红，城市越脆弱
03:58
the redder the circle,
the more fragile that city is,
the more fragile that city is,
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圆点越蓝，城市越具有韧性
04:00
and the bluer the circle,
the more resilient.
the more resilient.
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城市的脆弱性源于社会契约的紊乱
04:03
Fragility occurs when
the social contract comes unstuck.
the social contract comes unstuck.
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这表现于一下几方面
04:07
And what we tend to see is a convergence
of multiple kinds of risks:
of multiple kinds of risks:
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收于不平等
04:11
income inequality,
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04:12
poverty,
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贫困
青年失业
04:14
youth unemployment,
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不同的社会暴力问题
04:15
different issues around violence,
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甚至遭遇干旱，飓风和地震
04:17
even exposure to droughts,
cyclones and earthquakes.
cyclones and earthquakes.
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一些城市是明显比其他脆弱
04:22
Now obviously, some cities
are more fragile than others.
are more fragile than others.
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04:26
The good news, if there is any,
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但好消息是，
脆弱性不是永久的
04:29
is that fragility is not
a permanent condition.
a permanent condition.
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有一些城市曾经很脆弱
04:31
Some cities that were once the most
fragile cities in the world,
fragile cities in the world,
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像哥伦比亚首都波哥大
04:35
like Bogotá in Colombia
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或者是墨西哥的华雷斯成
04:36
or Ciudad Juárez in Mexico,
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现在已经超过世界国家平均水平
04:38
have now fallen more
around the national average.
around the national average.
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而坏消息是总体脆弱性在加深
04:41
The bad news is
that fragility is deepening,
that fragility is deepening,
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尤其是在世界上那些最贫困的地区
04:44
especially in those parts of the world
that are most vulnerable,
that are most vulnerable,
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北非，中东
04:47
in North Africa, the Middle East,
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东南亚与中南亚地区
04:49
in South Asia and Central Asia.
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在那里，它们的的脆弱性
以我们无法想象的程度在加深
以我们无法想象的程度在加深
04:51
There, we're seeing fragility rising
way beyond scales we've ever seen before.
way beyond scales we've ever seen before.
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当它积累到一定程度时，
城市将会崩溃
城市将会崩溃
04:56
When cities become too fragile
they can collapse,
they can collapse,
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整个垮掉衰竭
05:00
tip over and fail.
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到那时
05:01
And when that happens,
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它将会产生无数形式的移民
05:02
we have explosive forms of migration:
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难民
05:05
refugees.
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今天世界上存在两千两百万难民
05:07
There are more than 22 million
refugees in the world today,
refugees in the world today,
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自第二次世界大战后至今为止最多数量
05:12
more than at any other time
since the second world war.
since the second world war.
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而现在，这可不止一个危机
05:17
Now, there's not one refugee crisis;
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而是多重难民危机
05:19
there are multiple refugee crises.
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而且与你在新闻中读到不同的是
05:21
And contrary to what
you might read in the news,
you might read in the news,
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很大一部分的难民
05:24
the vast majority of refugees
aren't fleeing from poor countries
aren't fleeing from poor countries
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不是前往更好的城市
05:27
to wealthy countries,
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而是条件更差，更贫困的城市
05:28
they're moving from poor cities
into even poorer cities --
into even poorer cities --
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也就是所谓的邻近城市
05:31
often, cities nearby.
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地图上每一个小点都讲诉着一个痛心的故事
05:33
Every single dot on this map
represents an agonizing story
represents an agonizing story
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它们代表着挣扎和苦难
05:38
of struggle and survival.
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但我想简单的告诉你地图上没有什么
05:40
But I want to briefly tell you
about what's not on that map,
about what's not on that map,
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那就是境内流离失所者
05:42
and that's internal displacement.
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在这个世界上
05:44
There are more than 36 million people
who have been internally displaced
who have been internally displaced
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有超过3千6百万的人失去了他们的家
05:48
around the world.
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他们活得像那些逃亡者
05:49
These are people living
in refugee-like conditions,
in refugee-like conditions,
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但是缺少了自己国家的保护和帮助
05:52
but lacking the equivalent international
protection and assistance.
protection and assistance.
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为了了解他们的困境
05:55
And to understand their plight,
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我想去放大叙利亚
05:57
I want to zoom in briefly on Syria.
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2007年到2010年，
叙利亚经历了有史以来最严重的干旱
叙利亚经历了有史以来最严重的干旱
06:01
Syria suffered one of the worst droughts
in its history between 2007 and 2010.
in its history between 2007 and 2010.
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摧毁了百分之七十五的农作物
06:06
More than 75 percent of its agriculture
and 85 percent of its livestock
and 85 percent of its livestock
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和百分之八十五的家畜
06:10
were wiped out.
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而在这之间，超过一百万人逃离去别的城市
06:11
And in the process,
over a million people moved into cities
over a million people moved into cities
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像阿勒波，大马士革和霍姆斯
06:14
like Aleppo, Damascus and Homs.
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当食物价格上涨时
06:17
As food prices began to rise,
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06:19
you also had equivalent levels
of social unrest.
of social unrest.
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也会产生同等级的社会不安
当阿萨德总统的政权开始崩塌的时候
06:23
And when the regime of President Assad
began cracking down,
began cracking down,
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难民的数量急剧膨胀
06:26
you had an explosion of refugees.
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同时超过6百万的人流离失所
06:30
You also had over six million
internally displaced people,
internally displaced people,
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他们中很多人也都成为了难民
06:33
many of whom when on to become refugees.
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他们不仅仅逃亡到周边的国家，像约旦
06:35
And they didn't just move
to neighboring countries like Jordan
to neighboring countries like Jordan
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黎巴嫩或者土耳其
06:39
or Lebanon or Turkey.
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他们也向北边迁移去西欧
06:41
They also moved up north
towards Western Europe.
towards Western Europe.
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超过一百四十万的叙利亚人
06:44
See, over 1.4 million Syrians
made the perilous journey
made the perilous journey
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从地中海地区到土耳其
06:48
through the Mediterranean
and up through Turkey
and up through Turkey
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为的是抵达这两个国家
06:51
to find their way
into two countries, primarily:
into two countries, primarily:
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德国和瑞士
06:53
Germany and Sweden.
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现在，气候变了
06:57
Now, climate change --
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不仅是干旱，
也产生了海平面上升的问题
也产生了海平面上升的问题
06:58
not just drought, but also sea level rise,
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这对城市来说
07:01
is probably one of the most severe
existential threats
existential threats
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将是最严重的威胁之一
07:04
that cities face.
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那是因为全世界有三分之二都是临海城市
07:05
That's because two-thirds
of the world's cities are coastal.
of the world's cities are coastal.
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超过一百五十万人口住在低洼、
容易被淹没的沿海地区
容易被淹没的沿海地区
07:10
Over 1.5 billion people live in low-lying,
flood-prone coastal areas.
flood-prone coastal areas.
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你现在看到的是海平面上升的地图
07:15
What you see here is a map
that shows sea level rise
that shows sea level rise
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和温度变化有关
07:18
in relation to changes in temperature.
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气候学家预测未来
07:21
Climate scientists predict
that we're going to see
that we're going to see
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在所有地方都会上升3至30英尺左右
07:24
anywhere between three
and 30 feet of sea level rise
and 30 feet of sea level rise
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在本世纪末之前
07:26
this side of the century.
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不仅是岛屿国家将受影响
07:28
And it's not just low island nation-states
that are going to suffer --
that are going to suffer --
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基里巴斯、马尔代夫
或者是所罗门斯或者是斯里兰卡
或者是所罗门斯或者是斯里兰卡
07:31
Kiribati or the Maldives
or the Solomons or Sri Lanka --
or the Solomons or Sri Lanka --
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它们将受到严重影响
07:35
and they will suffer,
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07:36
but also massive cities like Dhaka,
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同样的，类似达卡这样的大城市，
香港
07:39
like Hong Kong,
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上海
07:40
like Shanghai.
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那些一千万人口以上的城市
07:42
Cities of 10, 20, 30 million
people or more
people or more
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都将被淹没
07:45
are literally going to be wiped off
the face of this earth.
the face of this earth.
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他们没有选择，若不能适应，
要不然就是死
要不然就是死
07:48
They're going to have to adapt,
or they're going to die.
or they're going to die.
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我们来看一看西方国家
07:52
I want to take you also
all the way over to the West,
all the way over to the West,
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因为这不只是亚洲
或者非洲或者拉丁美洲的问题
或者非洲或者拉丁美洲的问题
07:55
because this isn't just a problem
in Asia or Africa or Latin America,
in Asia or Africa or Latin America,
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这也是一些西方国家的问题
07:58
this is a problem also in the West.
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这是迈阿密
08:00
This is Miami.
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你们都知道迈阿密
08:01
Many of you know Miami
is one of the wealthiest cities
is one of the wealthiest cities
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是美国最富有的城市之一
也是最受洪灾影响的城市之一
08:04
in the United States;
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08:05
it's also one of the most flood-prone.
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从2017这一年
我们已经看出来了它的受影响程度
我们已经看出来了它的受影响程度
08:07
That's been made painfully evident
by natural disasters throughout 2017.
by natural disasters throughout 2017.
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但是迈阿密是建立在湿地上的城市，
它的基础是多空石灰岩
它的基础是多空石灰岩
08:10
But Miami is built
on porous limestone -- a swamp.
on porous limestone -- a swamp.
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08:13
There's no way any kind of flood barrier
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世界上不存在任何一种拦洪坝
可以阻挡洪水渗透进来
08:15
is going to keep
the water from seeping in.
the water from seeping in.
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当我们往后看
08:17
As we scroll back,
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越过加勒比海和沿途的海湾
08:18
and we look across the Caribbean
and along the Gulf,
and along the Gulf,
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我们就会意识到
08:21
we begin to realize
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那些受到自然灾害影响的城市—
08:22
that those cities that have suffered
worst from natural crises --
worst from natural crises --
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太子湾，新奥尔良，休斯顿—
08:25
Port-au-Prince, New Orleans, Houston --
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都经历过十分可怕的自然灾害
08:28
as severe and as awful
as those situations have been,
as those situations have been,
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但他们随时都为未知的未来做好准备
08:31
they're a dress rehearsal
for what's to come.
for what's to come.
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没有城市一个孤岛
08:34
No city is an island.
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每一个城市都与它内地所连接
08:36
Every city is connected
to its rural hinterland
to its rural hinterland
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在很多方面—
08:38
in complex ways --
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很多时候食物产量都会受影响
08:40
often, in relation
to the production of food.
to the production of food.
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现在我们去看亚马逊的北边，隆多尼亚
08:42
I want to take you to the northern part
of the Amazon, in Rondônia.
of the Amazon, in Rondônia.
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它是世界上最大的森林碳化池
08:46
This is one of the world's largest
terrestrial carbon sinks,
terrestrial carbon sinks,
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每年吸取百万吨的二氧化碳
08:49
processing millions of carbon
every single year.
every single year.
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你现在看到的是一条三十年的路
08:51
What you see here is a single road
over a 30-year period.
over a 30-year period.
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在道路的两边是家畜的牧场
08:54
On either side you see land being
cleared for pasture, for cattle,
cleared for pasture, for cattle,
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但也是黄豆和糖的生产地
08:58
but also for soy and sugar production.
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我们未来将会看到巨大规模的森林砍伐
09:00
You're seeing deforestation
on a massive scale.
on a massive scale.
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09:04
The red area here implies a net loss
of forest over the last 14 years.
of forest over the last 14 years.
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这个红色的区域是超过十四年的森里净亏损
如果你可以看到的话，
蓝色的区域其实没有很多
蓝色的区域其实没有很多
09:09
The blue, if you could see it --
there's not much --
there's not much --
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可以看出红色区域的不断增加
09:12
implies there's been an incremental gain.
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现在，情况险峻
09:15
Now, as grim and gloomy
as the situation is -- and it is --
as the situation is -- and it is --
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我们的希望少之又少
09:19
there is a little bit of hope.
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巴西政府
09:21
See, the Brazilian government,
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从国家到省级再到地方
09:22
from the national to the state
to the municipal level,
to the municipal level,
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都推出了全方位—格状的—公园和保护区
09:25
has also introduced a whole range --
a lattice -- of parks and protected areas.
a lattice -- of parks and protected areas.
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虽然不完美，且无法随时限制侵蚀
09:29
And while not perfect,
and not always limiting encroachment,
and not always limiting encroachment,
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它们多少对森林砍伐具有填塞作用
09:32
they have served
to tamp back deforestation.
to tamp back deforestation.
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这种情况不仅仅在巴西，
还横跨整个美洲
还横跨整个美洲
09:35
The same applies not just in Brazil
but all across the Americas,
but all across the Americas,
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到美国，加拿大和全世界
09:39
into the United States, Canada
and around the world.
and around the world.
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09:41
So let's talk about solutions.
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因此我们要来聊聊解决方案
虽然最高层否认全球变暖的说法
09:44
Despite climate denial
at the highest levels,
at the highest levels,
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城市却在采取一定的行动
09:48
cities are taking action.
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当美国推出巴黎气候协议
09:50
You know, when the US pulled out
of the Paris Climate Agreement,
of the Paris Climate Agreement,
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美国数百个城市以及全球数千个城市
09:53
hundreds of cities in the United States
and thousands more around the world
and thousands more around the world
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都投入了两倍的气候承诺
09:57
doubled down on their climate commitments.
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2077
（掌声）
10:00
(Applause)
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当白宫取缔在庇护城市中所谓的
10:06
And when the White House cracked down
on so-called "undocumented migrants"
on so-called "undocumented migrants"
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“无证移民”
10:11
in sanctuary cities,
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数百个城市，郡，州都十分反对
10:12
hundreds of cities and counties
and states sat up in defiance
and states sat up in defiance
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并且拒绝执行该法令
10:15
and refused to enact that order.
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（掌声）
10:17
(Applause)
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城市正在作出相应的行动
10:22
So cities are and can take action.
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但是我们需要更多
10:25
But we're going to need
to see a lot more of it,
to see a lot more of it,
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尤其是南半球的那些城市
10:28
especially in the global south.
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非洲和南美的一些区域在工业化前
10:30
You see, parts of Africa
and Latin America are urbanizing
and Latin America are urbanizing
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就已经开始城市化
10:34
before they industrialize.
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他们的人口增长
10:35
They're growing at three times
the global average
the global average
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比世界平均超出3倍
10:38
in terms their population.
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这样会给社会基础设施和服务
增加巨大的压力
增加巨大的压力
10:40
And this is putting enormous strain
on infrastructure and services.
on infrastructure and services.
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现在，有一个绝好的机会
10:44
Now, there is a golden opportunity.
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3131
10:48
It's a small opportunity but a golden one:
in the next 10 to 20 years,
in the next 10 to 20 years,
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3325
机会很小，但确是一个金钥匙:
在接下来的10年至20年期间，
在接下来的10年至20年期间，
去真正将社会恢复力注入我们的城市
10:51
to really start designing in
principles of resilience into our cities.
principles of resilience into our cities.
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只采用一个方法是行不通的
10:55
There's not one single way of doing this,
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2465
但是我们有很多选择
10:57
but there are a number of ways
that are emerging.
that are emerging.
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2793
11:00
And I've spoken with hundreds
of urban planners,
of urban planners,
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我个人已经和数百位城市规划者，
开发专家，
11:02
development specialists,
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建筑师和民权运动人士谈过，
11:04
architects and civic activists,
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这些原则都是我们的必谈话题
11:06
and a number of recurring
principles keep coming out.
principles keep coming out.
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这里我想告诉大家6个原则
11:09
I just want to pass on six.
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11:12
First: cities need a plan
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第一：城市需要计划
和一个实行策略
11:15
and a strategy to implement it.
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这样说可能听起来很不可思议
11:16
I mean, it sounds crazy,
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1219
但世界上大部分的城市实则是没有计划
11:18
but the vast majority of world cities
don't actually have a plan
don't actually have a plan
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或者未来的构想
11:21
or a vision.
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人们忙着处理眼前的问题，
却忽略了远观计划
却忽略了远观计划
11:22
They're too busy putting out daily fires
to think ahead strategically.
to think ahead strategically.
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每个城市都需要创意
11:25
I mean, every city wants to be creative,
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2009
快乐，宜居，有恢复力—
11:27
happy, liveable, resilient --
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谁不想要？
11:30
who doesn't?
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可问题是，你如何做到呢？
11:31
The challenge is, how do you get there?
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1870
所以城市政府的角色很重要
11:33
And urban governance plays a key role.
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你可以选择步新加坡的后尘，
或者更糟
或者更糟
11:35
You could do worse than take a page
from the book of Singapore.
from the book of Singapore.
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1971年，新加坡
制定了一个50年的都市化策略
制定了一个50年的都市化策略
11:38
In 1971, Singapore set
a 50-year urban strategy
a 50-year urban strategy
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每五年就更新一次
11:42
and renews it every five years.
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新加坡教会我们的，
不只是持续的重要性
不只是持续的重要性
11:45
What Singapore teaches us
is not just the importance of continuity,
is not just the importance of continuity,
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也是自治和考虑周到的重要角色
11:48
but also the critical role
of autonomy and discretion.
of autonomy and discretion.
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3247
城市需要发行债券的权利
11:52
Cities need the power
to be able to issue debt,
to be able to issue debt,
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3025
去提高税收
11:55
to raise taxes,
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有效分区
11:57
to zone effectively,
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1151
和建造负担得起的住房
11:58
to build affordable housing.
256
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城市需要一个权利下放的革命
12:01
What cities need is nothing less
than a devolution revolution,
than a devolution revolution,
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4403
这将需要重新考虑一些和国家的契约
12:05
and this is going to require
renegotiating the terms of the contract
renegotiating the terms of the contract
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3216
12:08
with a nation-state.
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1359
第二：
12:10
Second:
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1274
你需要绿化
12:12
you've got to go green.
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城市已经在努力带领全球低碳化
12:13
Cities are already leading
global decarbonization efforts.
global decarbonization efforts.
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他们在投资阔塞定价法
12:16
They're investing in congestion
pricing schemes,
pricing schemes,
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2262
排放减量的气候目标
12:19
in climate reduction emission targets,
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2325
生物多样性、公园、自行车道和人行道
12:21
in biodiversity, in parks
and bikeways and walkways
and bikeways and walkways
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以及其间的所有事情
12:25
and everything in between.
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他们的选择数不尽数
12:26
There's an extraordinary menu of options
they have to choose from.
they have to choose from.
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3153
其中很好的一件事情是
12:29
One of the great things is,
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1294
很多城市已经在太阳能
和风能领域注入重大投资
和风能领域注入重大投资
12:31
cities are already investing heavily
in renewables -- in solar and wind --
in renewables -- in solar and wind --
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3521
不只是在北美，也在西欧
和亚洲某些区域
和亚洲某些区域
12:34
not just in North America, but especially
in Western Europe and parts of Asia.
in Western Europe and parts of Asia.
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今天我们的世界拥有太阳能发电厂的城市
12:38
There are more than 8,000 cities
right now in the world today
right now in the world today
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超过8000个
12:41
with solar plants.
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1170
其中三百个城市已经可以能源自主化
12:42
There are 300 cities that have declared
complete energy autonomy.
complete energy autonomy.
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4199
我最喜欢的一个故事来自麦德林
12:46
One of my favorite stories
comes from Medellín,
comes from Medellín,
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2403
12:49
which invested in a municipal
hydroelectric plant,
hydroelectric plant,
275
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3133
麦德林投资了一座水力发电厂
它不只满足当地的需求
12:52
which doesn't only service
its local needs,
its local needs,
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2228
还可以将对于的能源卖给全国电力网
12:54
but allows the city to sell excess energy
back onto the national grid.
back onto the national grid.
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3323
然而这不是个例
12:58
And it's not alone.
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1168
还有上千个其他相似的城市
12:59
There are a thousand
other cities just like it.
other cities just like it.
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2536
第三：投资在整合性和多用性解决方案上
13:02
Third: invest in integrated
and multi-use solutions.
and multi-use solutions.
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3790
那些投资在解决方案上的，
往往是那些最成功的城市
往往是那些最成功的城市
13:06
The most successful cities are those
that are going to invest in solutions
that are going to invest in solutions
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可以同时解决多个问题
13:10
that don't solve just one problem,
but that solve multiple problems.
but that solve multiple problems.
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3235
用公共运输系统为例
13:13
Take the case of integrated
public transport.
public transport.
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3202
当它设计得当的时候
13:17
When done well --
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1314
迅速运转的巴士运输，
13:19
rapid bus transit,
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1385
轻轨铁路，
13:20
light rail,
286
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1343
自行车道，人行道，水路
13:21
bikeways, walkways, boatways --
287
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2405
能急剧减少排放和交通阻塞
13:24
these can dramatically reduce
emissions and congestion.
emissions and congestion.
288
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3346
还不只如此
13:28
But they can do a lot more than that.
289
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1857
他们可以改善公众健康
13:30
They can improve public health.
290
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1675
13:31
They can reduce dispersion.
291
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1644
他们可以减少分散
他们可以增加安全性
13:33
They can even increase safety.
292
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1629
首尔就提供了一个很好的例子
13:36
A great example of this comes from Seoul.
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1995
13:38
You see, Seoul's population doubled
over the last 30 years,
over the last 30 years,
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3981
过去30年，首尔的人口增加一倍
但是它的排碳量几乎不变
13:42
but the footprint barely changed.
295
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2196
这是为什么？
13:44
How?
296
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1401
百分之75的首尔居民所使用的上班方式
13:45
Well, 75 percent
of Seoul's residents get to work
of Seoul's residents get to work
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2835
是被称为
13:48
using what's been described as
298
816637
1439
世界上最高效的公共运输系统
13:50
one of the most extraordinary
public transport systems
public transport systems
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818100
2574
13:52
in the world.
300
820698
1151
然而首尔过去是个汽车国家
13:53
And Seoul used to be car country.
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1700
接着第四：
13:56
Next, fourth:
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1438
密集的建设也要注意永存性
13:59
build densely but also sustainably.
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2812
无计划扩展是城市的死穴
14:03
The death of all cities is the sprawl.
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3101
城市需要有韧性得建造
14:06
Cities need to know
how to build resiliently,
how to build resiliently,
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2175
也要有包容性
14:08
but also in a way that's inclusive.
306
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1791
这是一张达拉斯沃斯堡的图片
14:11
This is a picture right here
of Dallas-Fort Worth.
of Dallas-Fort Worth.
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3751
你现在看到是过去30年增加一倍的人口
14:14
And what you see is its population
also doubled over the last 30 years.
also doubled over the last 30 years.
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4314
但同时也可以用我们的肉眼看到
14:19
But as you can see, it spread
into edge cities and suburbia
into edge cities and suburbia
309
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3130
散布在边缘和郊区的人口
14:22
as far as the eye can see.
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1610
城市需要学会留白建设
14:25
Cities need to know when not to build,
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2210
以此避免盲目扩展
14:27
so as not to reproduce urban sprawl
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2331
和贫民区
14:29
and slums of downward accountability.
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1940
达拉斯沃斯堡的问题是
14:32
The problem with Dallas-Forth Worth is
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860377
1960
只有百分之五的居民
有机会使用公交系统
有机会使用公交系统
14:34
just five percent of its residents get
to work using public transport -- five.
to work using public transport -- five.
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而百分之九十五的居民使用车
14:39
Ninety-five percent use cars,
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1458
这也就解释了为什么它在北美
14:40
which partly explains why it's got
some of the longest commuting times
some of the longest commuting times
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3415
拥有最长通勤时间的记录
14:44
in North America.
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1301
相比之下，新加坡就是一个正面的例子
14:45
Singapore, by contrast, got it right.
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2065
他们垂直建设
14:47
They built vertically
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1167
同时也建造了居民负担得起的住房
14:48
and built in affordable housing to boot.
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1963
第五：偷窃
14:51
Fifth: steal.
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1843
最聪明的城市要学会做一个小偷
14:54
The smartest cities are nicking,
pilfering, stealing,
pilfering, stealing,
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2617
左边，右边，中间
14:57
left, right and center.
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1160
他们没有可以浪费的时间
14:58
They don't have time to waste.
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1484
他们需要最新的科技
15:00
They need tomorrow's technology today,
326
888320
1983
15:02
and they're going
to leapfrog to get there.
to leapfrog to get there.
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2005
而且他们需要跳跃式前进
这是纽约
15:04
This is New York,
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1155
但不仅是纽约在偷，
15:05
but it's not just New York
that's doing a lot of stealing,
that's doing a lot of stealing,
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2834
新加坡，首尔，麦德林也在
15:08
it's Singapore, it's Seoul, it's Medellín.
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2064
要达到城市复兴
15:10
The urban renaissance
is only going to be enabled
is only going to be enabled
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2337
城市需要借鉴、分享彼此的经验
15:12
when cities start borrowing
from one another.
from one another.
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2175
最后：全球联盟化
15:15
And finally: work in global coalitions.
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903041
2525
15:18
You know, there are more than 200
inner-city coalitions in the world today.
inner-city coalitions in the world today.
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3640
今天的世界上有超过200个城市内联盟
城市联盟的数目
15:21
There are more city coalitions
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909672
1547
15:23
than there are coalitions
for nation-states.
for nation-states.
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911243
2334
比国家联盟还要多
看看全球市长议会
15:26
Just take a look at the Global
Parliament of Mayors,
Parliament of Mayors,
337
914272
2503
为已故的本杰明巴布尔
15:28
set up by the late Ben Barber,
338
916799
1449
在推动城市权利运动时所创立
15:30
who was driving an urban rights movement.
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918272
2041
还有C40
15:32
Or consider the C40,
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920337
1494
这个惊人的城市网，
将数千个城市聚集在一起
将数千个城市聚集在一起
15:33
a marvelous network of cities
that has gathered thousands together
that has gathered thousands together
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921855
3411
以提供清洁能源
15:37
to deliver clean energy.
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925290
1437
或者世界经济论坛
15:39
Or look at the World Economic Forum,
343
927092
1763
它在发展智能城市协议
15:40
which is developing smart city protocols.
344
928879
1997
或者100恢复型城市方案
15:42
Or the 100 Resilient Cities initiative,
345
930900
1882
去引领恢复力的重振
15:44
which is leading a resilience revival.
346
932806
2003
ICLEI, UCLG, 国际化大都市
15:47
ICLEI, UCLG, Metropolis --
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935945
3481
这些是通往未来的方向
15:51
these are the movements of the future.
348
939450
2677
它们都意识到当城市聚集在一起
15:54
What they all realize
is that when cities work together,
is that when cities work together,
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942151
2786
就可以放大它们的声音
15:56
they can amplify their voice,
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944961
1857
不再只局限于国家舞台，
也在世界舞台上
也在世界舞台上
15:59
not just on the national stage,
but on the global stage.
but on the global stage.
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2995
而这些声音的回声就是—选票权
16:02
And with a voice comes,
potentially, a vote --
potentially, a vote --
352
950518
2903
甚至是否决权
16:05
and then maybe even a veto.
353
953445
1769
当国家建立在全体的国家主权上
16:09
When nation-states default
on their national sovereignty,
on their national sovereignty,
354
957190
3491
16:12
cities have to step up.
355
960705
1882
城市得站起来
它们不可以等待
16:14
They can't wait.
356
962611
1152
它们不需要寻求许可
16:15
And they don't need to ask for permission.
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963787
2182
它们可以行使自己的主权
16:17
They can exert their own sovereignty.
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965993
2351
它们懂得地区和全球
16:21
They understand
that the local and the global
that the local and the global
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969037
2131
已经真正的联合在一起
16:23
have really, truly come together,
360
971192
1602
我们住在一个全球的地方性世界
16:24
that we live in a global, local world,
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972818
1856
我们也需要改变相应的政策
16:26
and we need to adjust
our politics accordingly.
our politics accordingly.
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974698
2649
当我巡游世界，与各个市长
和文明领袖们见面时
和文明领袖们见面时
16:29
As I travel around the world
and meet mayors and civic leaders,
and meet mayors and civic leaders,
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977371
3108
他们在工作上所表现处的能量，热情和效率
16:32
I'm amazed by the energy,
enthusiasm and effectiveness
enthusiasm and effectiveness
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980503
3326
都让我感到惊奇
16:35
they bring to their work.
365
983853
1811
他们是实用主义者
16:37
They're pragmatists.
366
985688
1484
他们是问题解决者
16:39
They're problem-solvers.
367
987196
1534
他们是平行外交官
16:40
They're para-diplomats.
368
988754
1469
与此同时，国际上的不确定性很高
16:43
And in this moment of extraordinary
international uncertainty,
international uncertainty,
369
991009
3230
当我们的多国制度瘫痪时
16:47
when our multilateral
institutions are paralyzed
institutions are paralyzed
370
995116
2508
16:49
and our nation-states are in retreat,
371
997648
2069
我们的民族国家也在倒退
城市和它们的领导是我们21世界的前瞻者
16:51
cities and their leaders are our new
21st-century visionaries.
21st-century visionaries.
372
999741
4717
他们值得——不，他们有权利取得一席之地
16:57
They deserve -- no, they have
a right to -- a seat at the table.
a right to -- a seat at the table.
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1005254
3749
谢谢
17:01
Thank you.
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1229
（掌声）
17:03
(Applause)
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3518
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Muggah - Megacities expertRobert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally.
Why you should listen
Robert Muggah drills down through shadowy data on arms trafficking, urban violence and resilience in search of answers for a rapidly urbanizing society’s most troubling questions: Why are cities so violent, and increasingly fragile? Why are conflicts within nations replacing conflicts between them? And what strategies can we implement to reduce violence?
Muggah's high-tech toolkit includes new ways for citizens to collect, collate and understand data, such as the mapping arms data (MAD) tool. As the research director of the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Foundation, he developed the tool in collaboration with the Peace Research Institute Oslo and with Google Ideas, winning accolades for the transparency it brings to the debate.
Robert Muggah | Speaker | TED.com