ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Aubrey de Grey - Crusader against aging
Aubrey de Grey, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born.

Why you should listen

A true maverick, Aubrey de Grey challenges the most basic assumption underlying the human condition -- that aging is inevitable. He argues instead that aging is a disease -- one that can be cured if it's approached as "an engineering problem." His plan calls for identifying all the components that cause human tissue to age, and designing remedies for each of them — forestalling disease and eventually pushing back death. He calls the approach Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS).

With his astonishingly long beard, wiry frame and penchant for bold and cutting proclamations, de Grey is a magnet for controversy. A computer scientist, self-taught biogerontologist and researcher, he has co-authored journal articles with some of the most respected scientists in the field.

But the scientific community doesn't know what to make of him. In July 2005, the MIT Technology Review challenged scientists to disprove de Grey's claims, offering a $20,000 prize (half the prize money was put up by de Grey's Methuselah Foundation) to any molecular biologist who could demonstrate that "SENS is so wrong that it is unworthy of learned debate." The challenge remains open; the judging panel includes TEDsters Craig Venter and Nathan Myhrvold. It seems that "SENS exists in a middle ground of yet-to-be-tested ideas that some people may find intriguing but which others are free to doubt," MIT's judges wrote. And while they "don't compel the assent of many knowledgeable scientists," they're also "not demonstrably wrong."

More profile about the speaker
Aubrey de Grey | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2005

Aubrey de Grey: A roadmap to end aging

奥布里德格雷Aubrey de Grey说,我们能够避免老化

Filmed:
4,332,848 views

剑桥大学的研究员奥布里德格雷Aubrey de Grey认为,衰老只不过是一种疾病——一种可治愈的疾病。根据奥布里德格雷Aubrey de Grey,人类的衰老主要体现在7个方面,所有这一切都可以得以避免。
- Crusader against aging
Aubrey de Grey, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:25
18 minutes分钟 is an absolutely绝对 brutal野蛮 time limit限制,
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十八分钟是一个非常紧的时间限制,
00:27
so I'm going to dive潜水 straight直行 in, right at the point
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因此我直入主题,讲重点的,
00:29
where I get this thing to work.
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我将马上开始。
00:31
Here we go. I'm going to talk about five different不同 things.
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好,我要谈五个不同的事情。
00:33
I'm going to talk about why defeating击败 aging老化 is desirable合意.
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一,我要谈谈为什么抗老化是可行的。
00:36
I'm going to talk about why we have to get our shit拉屎 together一起,
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二,我要谈谈为什么我们必须打起精神,
00:38
and actually其实 talk about this a bit more than we do.
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多讨论这个课题,并且发觉我们应该指望战胜老化。
00:40
I'm going to talk about feasibility可行性 as well, of course课程.
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当然,三,我也会谈谈战胜老化的可行性。
00:42
I'm going to talk about why we are so fatalistic宿命
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四,我要谈谈为什么我们在人类抗老化上采取的行动这么的认命,
00:44
about doing anything about aging老化.
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以为都是注定的。
00:46
And then I'm going spend perhaps也许 the second第二 half of the talk
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然后,第五,我也许在这个节目的下半段的时间谈谈
00:48
talking about, you know, how we might威力 actually其实 be able能够 to prove证明 that fatalism宿命论 is wrong错误,
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我们如何证明这个[对战胜老化]漠不关心以及以为是注定的心态是错误的,
00:53
namely亦即, by actually其实 doing something about it.
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并且实际上做点什么事来纠正这个错误。
00:55
I'm going to do that in two steps脚步.
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这第五点,我会用两个步骤来谈论。
00:57
The first one I'm going to talk about is
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第一个步骤是
00:59
how to get from a relatively相对 modest谦虚 amount of life extension延期 --
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如何从一个相对适中的延长寿命治疗科技 -
01:02
which哪一个 I'm going to define确定 as 30 years年份, applied应用的 to people
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我这就把它定义为可延长三十年寿命,
01:05
who are already已经 in middle-age中年 when you start开始 --
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并且在已经是中年年龄的人开始应用 –
01:07
to a point which哪一个 can genuinely真正的 be called defeating击败 aging老化.
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直到一个能真正被称为战胜老化问题的程度。
01:10
Namely亦即, essentially实质上 an elimination消除 of the relationship关系 between之间
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也就是说,实质上消除了你多大年纪,
01:14
how old you are and how likely容易 you are to die in the next下一个 year --
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以及你在下一年死去或
01:16
or indeed确实, to get sick生病 in the first place地点.
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生病的可能性之间的关系。
01:18
And of course课程, the last thing I'm going to talk about
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最后一件事[第五件事情,
01:20
is how to reach达到 that intermediate中间 step,
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第二个步骤]我要谈的是如何实现过度步骤,
01:22
that point of maybe 30 years年份 life extension延期.
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那个能给我们每一个人延长三十年寿命的治疗科技。
01:25
So I'm going to start开始 with why we should.
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好,我就从为什么要延长人类的寿命开始。
01:28
Now, I want to ask a question.
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现在,我想问一个问题。
01:30
Hands up: anyone任何人 in the audience听众 who is in favor偏爱 of malaria疟疾?
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观众席里有谁赞成疟疾是有利的?请举手。
01:33
That was easy简单. OK.
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好,这很简单。
01:34
OK. Hands up: anyone任何人 in the audience听众
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行。行。请不知道疟疾
01:36
who's谁是 not sure whether是否 malaria疟疾 is a good thing or a bad thing?
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是好事还是坏事的人举手?
01:39
OK. So we all think malaria疟疾 is a bad thing.
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好。所以,我们都认为,疟疾是一件坏事。
01:41
That's very good news新闻, because I thought that was what the answer回答 would be.
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这是一个非常好的消息,因为我原以为这就是答案。
01:43
Now the thing is, I would like to put it to you
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现在我希望你们想一想
01:45
that the main主要 reason原因 why we think that malaria疟疾 is a bad thing
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我们认为疟疾是一件坏事主要的原因,
01:48
is because of a characteristic特性 of malaria疟疾 that it shares分享 with aging老化.
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是因为疟疾和老化有着共同的特征。
01:52
And here is that characteristic特性.
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那个特征就是两者都杀死人。
01:55
The only real真实 difference区别 is that aging老化 kills杀死 considerably相当 more people than malaria疟疾 does.
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唯一真正的区别是,老龄化杀死的人数比疟疾杀死的多许多。
02:00
Now, I like in an audience听众, in Britain英国 especially特别,
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现在,我喜欢观众,尤其是在英国的观众,
02:02
to talk about the comparison对照 with foxhunting猎狐,
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比较一下老化和打猎狐狸。
02:04
which哪一个 is something that was banned取缔 after a long struggle斗争,
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打猎狐狸是是经过长期斗争
02:07
by the government政府 not very many许多 months个月 ago.
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不久前被政府禁止的活动。
02:10
I mean, I know I'm with a sympathetic有同情心 audience听众 here,
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我的意思是,虽然我知道富有同情心的观众应该大多数都反对打猎狐狸,
02:12
but, as we know, a lot of people are not entirely完全 persuaded说服了 by this logic逻辑.
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但我们知道,很多人并不是完全被这个逻辑说服。
02:15
And this is actually其实 a rather good comparison对照, it seems似乎 to me.
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在我看来,这其实和老化是一个不错的比较。
02:18
You know, a lot of people said, "Well, you know,
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你知道,很多[郊外]的人说:“你们这些
02:20
city boys男孩 have no business商业 telling告诉 us rural乡村 types类型 what to do with our time.
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住在城市的人没有权利告诉我们什么活动可以做什么东西不能做。
02:25
It's a traditional传统 part部分 of the way of life,
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这是我们[住在郊外的人]的传统生活方式的一部分,
02:27
and we should be allowed允许 to carry携带 on doing it.
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我们应该有权力继续做它。
02:29
It's ecologically生态 sound声音; it stops停止 the population人口 explosion爆炸 of foxes狐狸."
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这是促进生态健全的,它控制了狐狸数量爆涨。”
02:32
But ultimately最终, the government政府 prevailed盛行 in the end结束,
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但是,政府最终占了上风,
02:34
because the majority多数 of the British英国的 public上市,
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因为大多数的英国公众,
02:35
and certainly当然 the majority多数 of members会员 of Parliament议会,
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还有国会多数成员,
02:37
came来了 to the conclusion结论 that it was really something
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得出的结论,就是这[打猎狐狸]
02:39
that should not be tolerated容忍 in a civilized文明 society社会.
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是一个文明社会所不能容忍的活动。
02:41
And I think that human人的 aging老化 shares分享
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我认为,人类衰老也有这些特点,
02:42
all of these characteristics特点 in spades黑桃.
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它是一个不能容忍的活动。
02:45
What part部分 of this do people not understand理解?
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这有什么难明白的?
02:47
It's not just about life, of course课程 --
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这当然不只是生命,
02:49
(Laughter笑声) --
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(众笑)
02:50
it's about healthy健康 life, you know --
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这也是有关可以健康的生活下去。
02:53
getting得到 frail脆弱 and miserable and dependent依赖的 is no fun开玩笑,
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因为无论人们觉得死亡是否好玩[是否应该容忍],
02:56
whether是否 or not dying垂死 may可能 be fun开玩笑.
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身体越来越衰弱,悲惨地依赖别人一点都不好玩。
02:58
So really, this is how I would like to describe描述 it.
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因此,其实这就是我想要对它的[人类衰老]描述。
03:00
It's a global全球 trance发呆.
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这[它]是一个全球性恍惚。
03:02
These are the sorts排序 of unbelievable难以置信的 excuses借口
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这是人们对老龄化作出了
03:04
that people give for aging老化.
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种种令人难以置信的借口。
03:06
And, I mean, OK, I'm not actually其实 saying
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而且,我的意思是,好吧,我不是在说
03:08
that these excuses借口 are completely全然 valueless无价值.
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这些借口是完全没有价值。
03:10
There are some good points to be made制作 here,
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这些借口也有一些好的积极方面。
03:12
things that we ought应该 to be thinking思维 about, forward前锋 planning规划
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比如说我们应该思考的种种问题,有规划些,
03:15
so that nothing goes too -- well, so that we minimize最小化
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来尽量减少我们在战胜老化路途上
03:17
the turbulence动乱 when we actually其实 figure数字 out how to fix固定 aging老化.
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的不必要的动荡。
03:20
But these are completely全然 crazy, when you actually其实
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但只要如果你真正衡量它们,
03:23
remember记得 your sense of proportion比例.
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这些借口都是完全疯了!
03:25
You know, these are arguments参数; these are things that
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你知道,这些[借口的]论点
03:29
would be legitimate合法 to be concerned关心 about.
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是合理的,值得去关注。
03:31
But the question is, are they so dangerous危险 --
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但问题是,这些论点有没有那么危险?
03:34
these risks风险 of doing something about aging老化 --
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战胜老化的风险
03:36
that they outweigh超过 the downside缺点 of doing the opposite对面,
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有没有高过
03:40
namely亦即, leaving离开 aging老化 as it is?
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不理会人类老化的代价?
03:42
Are these so bad that they outweigh超过
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难道这些[修复老化的风险]如此糟糕,
03:44
condemning谴责 100,000 people a day to an unnecessarily不必要的 early death死亡?
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比每天超过十万人面对早死的命运还糟糕?
03:50
You know, if you haven't没有 got an argument论据 that's that strong强大,
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你知道,如果你还没有比这一个说法更强的论点,
03:52
then just don't waste浪费 my time, is what I say.
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那么就不要浪费我的时间。这是我[对反对战胜老化]的看法。
03:55
(Laughter笑声)
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(众笑)
03:56
Now, there is one argument论据
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话虽如此,有一种观点有些人认为,
03:57
that some people do think really is that strong强大, and here it is.
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确实是很强,我们就在这儿讨论一下。
03:59
People worry担心 about overpopulation人口过剩; they say,
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人们担心人口过多,他们说,
04:01
"Well, if we fix固定 aging老化, no one's那些 going to die to speak说话 of,
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“好吧,如果我们战胜老化,没有人类死亡可言,
04:03
or at least最小 the death死亡 toll收费 is going to be much lower降低,
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或至少是死亡人数变得低得多,
04:06
only from crossing路口 St. Giles贾尔斯 carelessly不经意.
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变得只有不小心越过圣吉尔斯河而死[笑话]。
04:08
And therefore因此, we're not going to be able能够 to have many许多 kids孩子,
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因此,我们不需要有很多孩子,
04:10
and kids孩子 are really important重要 to most people."
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可是孩子对多数人很重要。”
04:12
And that's true真正.
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这是事实。
04:14
And you know, a lot of people try to fudge做傻事 this question,
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你知道,很多人试图捏造这个问题,
04:17
and give answers答案 like this.
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并给予这样的答案。
04:18
I don't agree同意 with those answers答案. I think they basically基本上 don't work.
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我不同意这些答案。我认为它们根本行不通。
04:21
I think it's true真正, that we will face面对 a dilemma困境 in this respect尊重.
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我认为这是真的,我们会在这方面面临两难。
04:24
We will have to decide决定 whether是否 to have a low birth分娩 rate,
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我们将必须决定是否有一个低生育水平,
04:28
or a high death死亡 rate.
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或者高死亡率。
04:30
A high death死亡 rate will, of course课程, arise出现 from simply只是 rejecting拒绝 these therapies治疗,
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拒绝这些战胜老化治疗,死亡率就会变高[和接受治疗的死亡率相比下],
04:33
in favor偏爱 of carrying携带 on having a lot of kids孩子.
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当然,在这种情况下我们就能生许多孩子。
04:37
And, I say that that's fine --
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我觉得这没问题 –
04:39
the future未来 of humanity人性 is entitled标题 to make that choice选择.
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人类的下一代,有权做出这个选择。
04:42
What's not fine is for us to make that choice选择 on behalf代表 of the future未来.
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不正确和不应该的是我们现在就替下一代的做出这个选择。
04:46
If we vacillate动摇, hesitate迟疑,
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如果因为我们犹豫,
04:48
and do not actually其实 develop发展 these therapies治疗,
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而不开发这些[战胜老化的]疗法,
04:51
then we are condemning谴责 a whole整个 cohort队列 of people --
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那么我们就等于判了我们的子孙一个不能永远活着的命运。
04:55
who would have been young年轻 enough足够 and healthy健康 enough足够
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本来因为他们够年轻,够健康,
04:57
to benefit效益 from those therapies治疗, but will not be,
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可以获益于这些疗法。
04:59
because we haven't没有 developed发达 them as quickly很快 as we could --
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但因为我们的犹豫,没有尽快开发这些疗法 –
05:01
we'll be denying否认 those people an indefinite不定 life span跨度,
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我们等于不让这些人有更长的寿命,
05:03
and I consider考虑 that that is immoral不道德.
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我认为这是不道德的。
05:05
That's my answer回答 to the overpopulation人口过剩 question.
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这是我对人口过多的问题的回应。
05:08
Right. So the next下一个 thing is,
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好,接下来的是,
05:10
now why should we get a little bit more active活性 on this?
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为什么我们应该在这一方面积极点?
05:12
And the fundamental基本的 answer回答 is that
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最根本的答案是,[潜意识的认同老化是必然的]
05:14
the pro-aging亲老化 trance发呆 is not as dumb as it looks容貌.
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亲老化恍惚并不像它看起来的那么笨。
05:17
It's actually其实 a sensible明智 way of coping应对 with the inevitability必然性 of aging老化.
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它其实是在应对无法避免的老化时的一个很明智的办法。
05:21
Aging老化 is ghastly阴森, but it's inevitable必然, so, you know,
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老化是可怕的,但它是不可避免的,所以,
05:25
we've我们已经 got to find some way to put it out of our minds头脑,
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我们必须想尽办法把这想法从我们头脑中忘记,
05:27
and it's rational合理的 to do anything that we might威力 want to do, to do that.
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理性地去做我们想要做的事情来改变。
05:31
Like, for example, making制造 up these ridiculous荒谬 reasons原因
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例如,人类会想出这些荒谬的原因
05:34
why aging老化 is actually其实 a good thing after all.
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来解释其实老化是件好事。
05:36
But of course课程, that only works作品 when we have both of these components组件.
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当然,这些[荒谬]的原因的起因有两个连接部分[一是老化,二是命中注定。]
05:40
And as soon不久 as the inevitability必然性 bit becomes a little bit unclear不明 --
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只要命中注定那个部分在我们的脑海中没那么的肯定,
05:43
and we might威力 be in range范围 of doing something about aging老化 --
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我们就可以开始对战胜老化采取行动,
05:45
this becomes part部分 of the problem问题.
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这是老化问题的一部分。
05:47
This pro-aging亲老化 trance发呆 is what stops停止 us from agitating搅拌 about these things.
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这亲老化恍惚常常妨碍人们解决老化这个问题。
05:51
And that's why we have to really talk about this a lot --
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这就是为什么我们一定要继续提出以及谈论这个课题,
05:55
evangelize传福音, I will go so far as to say, quite相当 a lot --
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我甚至会说 –
05:57
in order订购 to get people's人们 attention注意, and make people realize实现
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为了吸引人们的注意力,使人们认识到,
06:00
that they are in a trance发呆 in this regard看待.
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他们在这方面的恍惚,
06:02
So that's all I'm going to say about that.
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关于这个话题我就说到这里。
06:04
I'm now going to talk about feasibility可行性.
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我现在要谈的是第三点,打败老化的可行性。
06:07
And the fundamental基本的 reason原因, I think, why we feel that aging老化 is inevitable必然
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其根本原因,我想,为什么我们认为老化是不可避免的,
06:11
is summed总结 up in a definition定义 of aging老化 that I'm giving here.
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是可以用我在这儿给老化的定义作为总结。
06:14
A very simple简单 definition定义.
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这是一个非常简单的定义。
06:15
Aging老化 is a side effect影响 of being存在 alive in the first place地点,
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老化是一种活着的副作用,
06:18
which哪一个 is to say, metabolism代谢.
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也就是说,新陈代谢的副作用。
06:20
This is not a completely全然 tautological同义反复 statement声明;
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这并不是一个完全同义重复的声明,
06:23
it's a reasonable合理 statement声明.
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它是一个合理的声明。
06:24
Aging老化 is basically基本上 a process处理 that happens发生 to inanimate老成 objects对象 like cars汽车,
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老龄化基本上是一个过程,发生在无生命的物体如汽车,
06:28
and it also happens发生 to us,
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也发生在人类的身上,
06:30
despite尽管 the fact事实 that we have a lot of clever聪明 self-repair自我修复 mechanisms机制,
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尽管我们的身体有很多聪明的自我修复机制,
06:33
because those self-repair自我修复 mechanisms机制 are not perfect完善.
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因为这些自我修复机制还不完善[我们还是会老化]。
06:35
So basically基本上, metabolism代谢, which哪一个 is defined定义 as
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基本上,新陈代谢,就是说
06:37
basically基本上 everything that keeps保持 us alive from one day to the next下一个,
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[在我们身体里]所有为了让我们能够每一天活着所维持的种种化学过程,
06:40
has side effects效果.
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有副作用。
06:42
Those side effects效果 accumulate积累 and eventually终于 cause原因 pathology病理.
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这些副作用会不断的积累,最终导致病理[不可避免的死亡]。
06:44
That's a fine definition定义. So we can put it this way:
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这是一个不错的定义。因此,我们可以这样表达,
06:46
we can say that, you know, we have this chain of events事件.
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我们可以说,大家都知道,我们有着这一系列事件。
06:48
And there are really two games游戏 in town,
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而且根据大多数人,对于推迟衰老,
06:50
according根据 to most people, with regard看待 to postponing推迟 aging老化.
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只有两种方法。
06:53
They're what I'm calling调用 here the "gerontology老年病学 approach途径" and the "geriatrics老年病学 approach途径."
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这两种方法就是老年学和老年医学。
06:57
The geriatrician老年病学 will intervene干预 late晚了 in the day,
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老年医学医生会在一个人老化过程的后段,
06:59
when pathology病理 is becoming变得 evident明显,
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病理越来越明显的时候,
07:01
and the geriatrician老年病学 will try and hold保持 back the sands沙滩 of time,
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做治疗来尽量阻止老化时间
07:04
and stop the accumulation积累 of side effects效果
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和副作用积累
07:07
from causing造成 the pathology病理 quite相当 so soon不久.
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并且阻止那么快就造成不可避免地死亡。
07:09
Of course课程, it's a very short-term-ist短期-IST strategy战略; it's a losing失去 battle战斗,
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当然,这是一个非常短暂的战略,是一个败仗,
07:12
because the things that are causing造成 the pathology病理
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因为导致病理[不可避免地死亡]的这些副作用
07:15
are becoming变得 more abundant丰富 as time goes on.
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会随着时间的推移越来越多。
07:17
The gerontology老年病学 approach途径 looks容貌 much more promising有希望 on the surface表面,
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老年学的方法在表面上看起来更充满希望具发展前景,
07:21
because, you know, prevention预防 is better than cure治愈.
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因为你们也知道,预防胜于治疗。
07:24
But unfortunately不幸 the thing is that we don't understand理解 metabolism代谢 very well.
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但不幸的是,我们对新陈代谢的理解非常少。
07:27
In fact事实, we have a pitifully可怜 poor较差的 understanding理解 of how organisms生物 work --
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事实上,我们对生物体的了解少的可怜 –
07:30
even cells细胞 we're not really too good on yet然而.
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甚至细胞,我们都不是很懂。
07:32
We've我们已经 discovered发现 things like, for example,
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连对细胞如何操作的
07:34
RNARNA interference干扰 only a few少数 years年份 ago,
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基本知识, 例如核糖核酸机能失常,
07:37
and this is a really fundamental基本的 component零件 of how cells细胞 work.
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在仅仅几年前,我们才发现它。
07:39
Basically基本上, gerontology老年病学 is a fine approach途径 in the end结束,
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基本上,如果我们要讨论在我们一生中能用到的延长寿命的治疗,
07:42
but it is not an approach途径 whose谁的 time has come
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老年学以后将会是一个很好的方法,
07:44
when we're talking about intervention介入.
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但它的时机未到[因为我们对新陈代谢的理解还太少]。
07:46
So then, what do we do about that?
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然后呢,这怎么办呢?
07:49
I mean, that's a fine logic逻辑, that sounds声音 pretty漂亮 convincing使人信服,
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我的意思,这是一个很好的逻辑,
07:51
pretty漂亮 ironclad铁定, doesn't it?
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听起来非常有说服力的,不是吗?
07:53
But it isn't.
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但事实并非如此。
07:55
Before I tell you why it isn't, I'm going to go a little bit
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在我告诉你为什么不能之前,
07:58
into what I'm calling调用 step two.
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我要谈谈我所谓的第二步。
08:00
Just suppose假设, as I said, that we do acquire获得 --
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我们假设,如果正如我所说的,
08:04
let's say we do it today今天 for the sake清酒 of argument论据 --
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我们 - 假设说今天 –
08:06
the ability能力 to confer授予 30 extra额外 years年份 of healthy健康 life
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就拥有能够给现在已是中年,假设说五十五岁的人,
08:10
on people who are already已经 in middle中间 age年龄, let's say 55.
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多三十年的健康寿命的治疗方法。
08:13
I'm going to call that "robust强大的 human人的 rejuvenation复兴." OK.
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我称这为‘强健人类再生’ 。好。
08:16
What would that actually其实 mean
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那么实际上这对于现在不同年龄的人们,
08:17
for how long people of various各个 ages年龄 today今天 --
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或者相等地,当这些治疗方法到达时
08:20
or equivalently等效, of various各个 ages年龄 at the time that these therapies治疗 arrive到达 --
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已是不同年龄的人有什么影响呢?
08:24
would actually其实 live生活?
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他们会活多久些呢?
08:26
In order订购 to answer回答 that question -- you might威力 think it's simple简单,
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你可能会认为回答这个问题很简单,
08:28
but it's not simple简单.
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但它并不简单。
08:29
We can't just say, "Well, if they're young年轻 enough足够 to benefit效益 from these therapies治疗,
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我们不能只是说:“好吧,如果他们足够年轻,得益于这些治疗方法,
08:32
then they'll他们会 live生活 30 years年份 longer."
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那么他们就会活[比本来]多三十年的时间。”
08:33
That's the wrong错误 answer回答.
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这是错误的答案。
08:35
And the reason原因 it's the wrong错误 answer回答 is because of progress进展.
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而错误的原因是因为进步。
08:37
There are two sorts排序 of technological技术性 progress进展 really,
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对于我们这方面的治疗,
08:39
for this purpose目的.
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科学进步有两种。
08:40
There are fundamental基本的, major重大的 breakthroughs突破,
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第一种是突破性的进步,
08:43
and there are incremental增加的 refinements改进 of those breakthroughs突破.
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然后还有第二种就是不断的在那些突破性的进步上做出改良和提高它们的有效率。
08:47
Now, they differ不同 a great deal合同
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这两种科学进步所需的
08:49
in terms条款 of the predictability预测 of time frames.
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时间的预测度有很大的不同。
08:52
Fundamental基本的 breakthroughs突破:
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我们很难预测
08:53
very hard to predict预测 how long it's going to take
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多久才会有
08:55
to make a fundamental基本的 breakthrough突破.
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突破性的进步。
08:56
It was a very long time ago that we decided决定 that flying飞行 would be fun开玩笑,
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人类很有可能在很多年前就想在天空上飞行了,
08:59
and it took us until直到 1903 to actually其实 work out how to do it.
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可是要等到一九零三年才发现到底怎么飞行。
09:02
But after that, things were pretty漂亮 steady稳定 and pretty漂亮 uniform制服.
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可是这之后,人类飞行的科技就很有步骤地发展下去。
09:06
I think this is a reasonable合理 sequence序列 of events事件 that happened发生
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我认为这是一个很合乎情理才导致了
09:09
in the progression级数 of the technology技术 of powered动力 flight飞行.
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动力飞行的科技进展。
09:13
We can think, really, that each one is sort分类 of
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我们可以想象这些科技发展的每一步都是
09:17
beyond the imagination想像力 of the inventor发明者 of the previous以前 one, if you like.
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上一步的研发人所想不到的。
09:20
The incremental增加的 advances进步 have added添加 up to something
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比起原先每次都递进增值
09:24
which哪一个 is not incremental增加的 anymore.
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有进展。
09:26
This is the sort分类 of thing you see after a fundamental基本的 breakthrough突破.
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在每个科学突破性的进步后,您都会看到这些有步骤性的发展。
09:29
And you see it in all sorts排序 of technologies技术.
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而且在很多科技上都是这样。
09:31
Computers电脑: you can look at a more or less parallel平行 time line线,
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比如说电脑,和飞行科技也很类似,
09:34
happening事件 of course课程 a bit later后来.
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只是发生的时间不同罢了。
09:35
You can look at medical care关心. I mean, hygiene卫生, vaccines疫苗, antibiotics抗生素 --
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您也可以看一看医药保健科技,比如说卫生,疫苗,抗生素,
09:38
you know, the same相同 sort分类 of time frame.
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也有着一样的发展时间表。
09:40
So I think that actually其实 step two, that I called a step a moment时刻 ago,
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因此,我认为其实两个步骤,我刚才称为一个步骤,
09:44
isn't a step at all.
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并不完全是一个步骤。
09:45
That in fact事实, the people who are young年轻 enough足够
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事实上,很年轻的人
09:48
to benefit效益 from these first therapies治疗
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会从这些实验治疗方法受益,
09:50
that give this moderate中等 amount of life extension延期,
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能使人们的生命适量延长,
09:52
even though虽然 those people are already已经 middle-aged中年 when the therapies治疗 arrive到达,
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即使这些人已经中年,当这些治疗方法来到
09:56
will be at some sort分类 of cusp风口浪尖.
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人们还可以尝试治疗方法。
09:58
They will mostly大多 survive生存 long enough足够 to receive接收 improved改善 treatments治疗
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他们多数活得足够长来接受改进的治疗方法,
10:02
that will give them a further进一步 30 or maybe 50 years年份.
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从而使他们多活30年甚至50年。
10:04
In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game游戏.
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换句话说,他们将领先于老化的速度。
10:07
The therapies治疗 will be improving提高 faster更快 than
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治疗法比起治疗法中存在的缺陷
10:10
the remaining其余 imperfections缺陷 in the therapies治疗 are catching up with us.
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改进得更快。
10:14
This is a very important重要 point for me to get across横过.
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这是我想说的非常重要的一点。
10:16
Because, you know, most people, when they hear
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因为,很多人一听到
10:18
that I predict预测 that a lot of people alive today今天 are going to live生活 to 1,000 or more,
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我推测很多现在活着的人将会活到一千或更多年以上,
10:23
they think that I'm saying that we're going to invent发明 therapies治疗 in the next下一个 few少数 decades几十年
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他们都在想,哦,我们将会在这几十年内发明
10:27
that are so thoroughly eliminating消除 aging老化
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延缓老化的治疗方法,
10:30
that those therapies治疗 will let us live生活 to 1,000 or more.
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研究如何活到一千年甚至更多的治疗方法。
10:33
I'm not saying that at all.
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我并不是这么说。
10:35
I'm saying that the rate of improvement起色 of those therapies治疗
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我说的只是这些延长寿命的治疗方法的
10:37
will be enough足够.
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发展速度会足够使人们继续活下去。
10:38
They'll他们会 never be perfect完善, but we'll be able能够 to fix固定 the things
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这些治疗方法我想永远都不可能完美,
10:41
that 200-year-olds- 年的孩子 die of, before we have any 200-year-olds- 年的孩子.
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但我们将可以在还没有两百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗两百岁的人所死于的病理因素。
10:44
And the same相同 for 300 and 400 and so on.
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接下来,我们就在还没有三,四百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗三,四百岁的人所死于的因素。
10:46
I decided决定 to give this a little name名称,
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我称这为“长寿逃逸速度”,
10:49
which哪一个 is "longevity长寿 escape逃逸 velocity速度."
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要逃离死亡,长寿治疗方法必有快速的发展,叫逃逸速度。
10:51
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:53
Well, it seems似乎 to get the point across横过.
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这是个很容易明白的名称。
10:56
So, these trajectories轨迹 here are basically基本上 how we would expect期望 people to live生活,
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这就是我们可以期待
11:01
in terms条款 of remaining其余 life expectancy期待,
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在余下的预期寿命,
11:03
as measured测量 by their health健康,
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以他们的健康来衡量,
11:05
for given特定 ages年龄 that they were at the time that these therapies治疗 arrive到达.
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到了一定年龄,相对应的治疗就相应而出。
11:08
If you're already已经 100, or even if you're 80 --
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如果你已经100岁,或者你是80岁,
11:10
and an average平均 80-year-old-岁,
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平均80岁,
11:12
we probably大概 can't do a lot for you with these therapies治疗,
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我们可能很难为您做些什么,
11:14
because you're too close to death's死亡的 door
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因为您的时间不多了。
11:16
for the really initial初始, experimental试验 therapies治疗 to be good enough足够 for you.
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所以最初的,实验性疗法对你已经不起作用了。
11:20
You won't惯于 be able能够 to withstand经受 them.
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你将无法避免老化。
11:21
But if you're only 50, then there's a chance机会
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可是,如果您才五十岁的话,
11:23
that you might威力 be able能够 to pull out of the dive潜水 and, you know --
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您很有可能像我刚刚描述的那个样子摆脱了老化去世的问题。
11:26
(Laughter笑声) --
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(笑声)
11:27
eventually终于 get through通过 this
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您不但可以活的更久些,
11:30
and start开始 becoming变得 biologically生物 younger更年轻 in a meaningful富有意义的 sense,
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某种意义上
11:33
in terms条款 of your youthfulness青春, both physical物理 and mental心理,
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你的青春,从身体和头脑上, 你的生命变得更加年轻,
11:35
and in terms条款 of your risk风险 of death死亡 from age-related年龄相关 causes原因.
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你死于和老化有关的病症的几率也会降低。
11:37
And of course课程, if you're a bit younger更年轻 than that,
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当然,如果你还不到五十岁的话,
11:39
then you're never really even going
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您更有可能永远摆脱了老化去世的问题,
11:41
to get near to being存在 fragile脆弱 enough足够 to die of age-related年龄相关 causes原因.
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而不会虚弱因老化而生成的疾病死亡。
11:44
So this is a genuine真正 conclusion结论 that I come to, that the first 150-year-old-岁 --
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因此,这是我得到的一个真正的结论,就是说第一位[能够活到一百五十岁 –
11:49
we don't know how old that person is today今天,
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我们不知道该人现在多老了,
11:51
because we don't know how long it's going to take
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因为我们不知道第一代[延长寿命的]
11:53
to get these first-generation第一代 therapies治疗.
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疗法要多久才会出现。
11:55
But irrespective不管 of that age年龄,
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但无论是年龄,
11:57
I'm claiming自称 that the first person to live生活 to 1,000 --
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我声称的第一人会活到一千年的人 –
12:01
subject学科 of course课程, to, you know, global全球 catastrophes灾难 --
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当然,排除全球性灾难 - 实际上,
12:04
is actually其实, probably大概, only about 10 years年份 younger更年轻 than the first 150-year-old-岁.
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大概只有比我说的那位活到一百五十岁的人年轻十岁左右。
12:08
And that's quite相当 a thought.
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很令人值得想一想的结论吧。
12:10
Alright好的, so finally最后 I'm going to spend the rest休息 of the talk,
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好,接下来我要用这个讲座所剩下的时间,
12:13
my last seven-and-a-half七和半 minutes分钟, on step one;
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我的七个半分钟来谈谈我所谓的第一个步骤,
12:16
namely亦即, how do we actually其实 get to this moderate中等 amount of life extension延期
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就是我们如何得到这第一批延长寿命的适中治疗,
12:21
that will allow允许 us to get to escape逃逸 velocity速度?
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使我们可以达到长寿逃逸速度?
12:24
And in order订购 to do that, I need to talk about mice老鼠 a little bit.
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而为了做到这一点,我需要说一点点关于老鼠的事。
12:28
I have a corresponding相应 milestone里程碑 to robust强大的 human人的 rejuvenation复兴.
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我有一个对强健人类再生相应的里程碑,
12:31
I'm calling调用 it "robust强大的 mouse老鼠 rejuvenation复兴," not very imaginatively想象力.
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我不是很富有想象力地称它为强健老鼠再生[的治疗科技]。
12:34
And this is what it is.
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这是什么呢?
12:36
I say we're going to take a long-lived长寿命 strain应变 of mouse老鼠,
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就是我们要采用一种长寿的老鼠,
12:38
which哪一个 basically基本上 means手段 mice老鼠 that live生活 about three years年份 on average平均.
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就等于平均可以活三年左右的老鼠。
12:41
We do exactly究竟 nothing to them until直到 they're already已经 two years年份 old.
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我们完全没有碰过它们,直到它们已经两岁。
12:44
And then we do a whole整个 bunch of stuff东东 to them,
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然后我们对它们做了一大堆的东西,
12:46
and with those therapies治疗, we get them to live生活,
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用那些治疗方法使它们延长寿命,
12:48
on average平均, to their fifth第五 birthday生日.
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想办法让他们平均活到五岁。
12:50
So, in other words, we add two years年份 --
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因此,换句话说,我们开始把这些老鼠治疗后,添加了两年寿命 –
12:52
we treble三重 their remaining其余 lifespan寿命,
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已经是它们剩余寿命
12:54
starting开始 from the point that we started开始 the therapies治疗.
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的三倍。
12:56
The question then is, what would that actually其实 mean for the time frame
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接下来的问题是,到底什么时候,
12:59
until直到 we get to the milestone里程碑 I talked about earlier for humans人类?
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我们讨论的这些才能用在人类身上呢?
13:02
Which哪一个 we can now, as I've explained解释,
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我们现在可以,正如我已经解释过,
13:04
equivalently等效 call either robust强大的 human人的 rejuvenation复兴 or longevity长寿 escape逃逸 velocity速度.
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把它称为强健人类再生,或长寿逃逸速度。
13:08
Secondly其次, what does it mean for the public's公众的 perception知觉
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第二,从我们得到的第一只老鼠时开始,
13:11
of how long it's going to take for us to get to those things,
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公众对多久我们才能获得这些东西,
13:13
starting开始 from the time we get the mice老鼠?
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对这些科技的发展有什么影响?
13:15
And thirdly第三, the question is, what will it do
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第三,问题是,它对多少人想要避免老化的人们起作用?
13:17
to actually其实 how much people want it?
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这些科技有什么影响呢?
13:19
And it seems似乎 to me that the first question
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我的看法是,
13:21
is entirely完全 a biology生物学 question,
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第一个问题完全是生物学的问题,
13:22
and it's extremely非常 hard to answer回答.
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这是非常难回答。
13:24
One has to be very speculative投机,
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一个人必须非常投机,
13:26
and many许多 of my colleagues同事 would say that we should not do this speculation推测,
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和我的许多同事会说,我们不应该做这种推测,
13:29
that we should simply只是 keep our counsel法律顾问 until直到 we know more.
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我们应该简单地保持沉默,直到我们了解更多。
13:33
I say that's nonsense废话.
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我觉得这是一派胡言。
13:34
I say we absolutely绝对 are irresponsible不负责任 if we stay silent无声 on this.
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保持沉默,绝对是不负责任的。
13:37
We need to give our best最好 guess猜测 as to the time frame,
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我们需要给我们最好的猜测有时间框架,
13:40
in order订购 to give people a sense of proportion比例
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以便使人们有个概念,
13:43
so that they can assess评估 their priorities优先.
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使他们能够评估他们的优先事项。
13:45
So, I say that we have a 50/50 chance机会
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所以,我说,从我们应用强健老鼠再生的科技
13:48
of reaching到达 this RHRRHR milestone里程碑,
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的十五年内,我们有百分之五十的机会
13:50
robust强大的 human人的 rejuvenation复兴, within 15 years年份 from the point
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实现强健人类再生科技
13:53
that we get to robust强大的 mouse老鼠 rejuvenation复兴.
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这个重要的里程碑。
13:55
15 years年份 from the robust强大的 mouse老鼠.
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强健老鼠再生的科技应用的十五年内,
13:58
The public's公众的 perception知觉 will probably大概 be somewhat有些 better than that.
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人们的看法可能会变好。
14:01
The public上市 tends趋向 to underestimate低估 how difficult scientific科学 things are.
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因为人们往往低估的科学进步的困难性。
14:03
So they'll他们会 probably大概 think it's five years年份 away.
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因此,他们很可能会认为只需五年。
14:05
They'll他们会 be wrong错误, but that actually其实 won't惯于 matter too much.
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他们可能是错误的,但实际上这不太重要。
14:07
And finally最后, of course课程, I think it's fair公平 to say
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最后,当然,我认为公众对于老龄化
14:10
that a large part部分 of the reason原因 why the public上市 is so ambivalent矛盾 about aging老化 now
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的看法这么的矛盾的主要原因,
14:14
is the global全球 trance发呆 I spoke about earlier, the coping应对 strategy战略.
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是我刚才谈到的全球恍惚的应对策略。
14:16
That will be history历史 at this point,
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这将是历史性的一刻,
14:18
because it will no longer be possible可能 to believe that aging老化 is inevitable必然 in humans人类,
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因为公众将不再认为老化是人类不可避免的,
14:21
since以来 it's been postponed延期 so very effectively有效 in mice老鼠.
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因为它已经非常有效地在小老鼠体内被推迟。
14:24
So we're likely容易 to end结束 up with a very strong强大 change更改 in people's人们 attitudes态度,
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因此,我们很可能会看到人们的观念有了巨大变化,
14:28
and of course课程 that has enormous巨大 implications启示.
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而这将会具有极大的影响。
14:31
So in order订购 to tell you now how we're going to get these mice老鼠,
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为了现在要告诉你我们要如何得到这些老鼠,
14:34
I'm going to add a little bit to my description描述 of aging老化.
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我要补充一点我对老化的描述。
14:36
I'm going to use this word "damage损伤"
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我会用“损害”这个词来表示
14:38
to denote表示 these intermediate中间 things that are caused造成 by metabolism代谢
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所有由新陈代谢中阶段造成的东西,
14:42
and that eventually终于 cause原因 pathology病理.
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而最终导致不可避免的死亡。
14:44
Because the critical危急 thing about this
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因为这个关键的是,
14:46
is that even though虽然 the damage损伤 only eventually终于 causes原因 pathology病理,
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尽管这些损害只有在最终才会造成不可避免的死亡,
14:48
the damage损伤 itself本身 is caused造成 ongoing-ly正在进行-LY throughout始终 life, starting开始 before we're born天生.
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它们是从我们出生之前就开始累积的东西,我们整个人生它们都不断累积。
14:53
But it is not part部分 of metabolism代谢 itself本身.
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但是这些损害不是新陈代谢的一部分,
14:56
And this turns out to be useful有用.
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这一点对我们来说是有益的。
14:57
Because we can re-draw重新抽签 our original原版的 diagram this way.
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因为这样我们可以重新绘制我们的原始图。
15:00
We can say that, fundamentally从根本上, the difference区别 between之间 gerontology老年病学 and geriatrics老年病学
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我们可以说,老年学和老年病学之间根本区别就是,
15:03
is that gerontology老年病学 tries尝试 to inhibit抑制 the rate
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老年学试图抑制[避免]新陈代谢[的副作用],
15:05
at which哪一个 metabolism代谢 lays乐事 down this damage损伤.
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这些“损害”累积的速度。
15:07
And I'm going to explain说明 exactly究竟 what damage损伤 is
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我等一下会准确地解释我所谓
15:09
in concrete具体 biological生物 terms条款 in a moment时刻.
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的“损害”在生物学里指的是什么。
15:12
And geriatricians老年病学 try to hold保持 back the sands沙滩 of time
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老年病学呢,就试图阻止[医治]
15:14
by stopping停止 the damage损伤 converting转换 into pathology病理.
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这些“损害”所带来的的后果,
15:16
And the reason原因 it's a losing失去 battle战斗
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比如说死亡。这是一个败仗,
15:18
is because the damage损伤 is continuing继续 to accumulate积累.
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因为损害只会继续积累。
15:20
So there's a third第三 approach途径, if we look at it this way.
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如果我们这样看的话,有第三种办法。
15:23
We can call it the "engineering工程 approach途径,"
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我们可以把它叫做工程方法,
15:25
and I claim要求 that the engineering工程 approach途径 is within range范围.
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我声称工程方法是在人类的科技,技术范围之内。
15:28
The engineering工程 approach途径 does not intervene干预 in any processes流程.
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该工程方法不会干预任何[我们身体内的新陈代谢的]过程。
15:31
It does not intervene干预 in this process处理 or this one.
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它不会干预这个过程,也不干预这一个。
15:33
And that's good because it means手段 that it's not a losing失去 battle战斗,
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这很好,因为这意味着这不是一个败仗,
15:36
and it's something that we are within range范围 of being存在 able能够 to do,
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并且它是在我们现在的[技术]范围之内能够做到的事情,
15:39
because it doesn't involve涉及 improving提高 on evolution演化.
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因为它不涉及对人类进化改善。
15:42
The engineering工程 approach途径 simply只是 says,
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该工程方法只是表示,
15:44
"Let's go and periodically定期 repair修理 all of these various各个 types类型 of damage损伤 --
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“我们定期修复所有的这些不同类型的损害 –
15:48
not necessarily一定 repair修理 them completely全然, but repair修理 them quite相当 a lot,
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他们不一定完全修复[这些损害],
15:52
so that we keep the level水平 of damage损伤 down below下面 the threshold
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但修复的足以让我们继续避免
15:55
that must必须 exist存在, that causes原因 it to be pathogenic."
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一个会造成导致死亡或生病的程度。”
15:58
We know that this threshold exists存在,
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我们知道这个门槛程度的存在,
16:00
because we don't get age-related年龄相关 diseases疾病 until直到 we're in middle中间 age年龄,
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因为我们只有当我们在中年时才会得到与年龄有关的疾病,
16:03
even though虽然 the damage损伤 has been accumulating积累 since以来 before we were born天生.
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即使损害已经从我们诞生时就开始累积了。
16:06
Why do I say that we're in range范围? Well, this is basically基本上 it.
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为什么我说,[工程方法]在人类近期的技术范围内呢?这[图片]基本上就是原因。
16:10
The point about this slide滑动 is actually其实 the bottom底部.
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这图片的重点在底部。
16:13
If we try to say which哪一个 bits of metabolism代谢 are important重要 for aging老化,
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如果我们试图说新陈代谢的那个部分才是对老化过程有着重要的影响,
16:16
we will be here all night, because basically基本上 all of metabolism代谢
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那我们可能要在这里呆一整晚,
16:19
is important重要 for aging老化 in one way or another另一个.
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因为基本上新陈代谢的每个组件都对老化有影响。
16:21
This list名单 is just for illustration插图; it is incomplete残缺.
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这个列表仅仅是一个例子,它是不完整的。
16:24
The list名单 on the right is also incomplete残缺.
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右边的列表也一样不完整。
16:26
It's a list名单 of types类型 of pathology病理 that are age-related年龄相关,
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它们只是一种与年龄
16:29
and it's just an incomplete残缺 list名单.
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有关的病的列表。
16:31
But I would like to claim要求 to you that this list名单 in the middle中间 is actually其实 complete完成 --
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但这中间的我主张是完整的列表,
16:34
this is the list名单 of types类型 of thing that qualify修饰 as damage损伤,
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所有代谢副作用有资格被称为“损害”,
16:37
side effects效果 of metabolism代谢 that cause原因 pathology病理 in the end结束,
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最终会导致病理[不可避免的死亡]
16:40
or that might威力 cause原因 pathology病理.
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或可能造成病理类型。
16:42
And there are only seven of them.
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而这列表只有七个。
16:45
They're categories类别 of things, of course课程, but there's only seven of them.
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当然,这七个是类别,但只有七个。
16:48
Cell细胞 loss失利, mutations突变 in chromosomes染色体, mutations突变 in the mitochondria线粒体 and so on.
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细胞损失,染色体突变,在线粒体基因突变等。
16:53
First of all, I'd like to give you an argument论据 for why that list名单 is complete完成.
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首先,我想给你们解释一个为什么我认为这份列表是完全的。
16:58
Of course课程 one can make a biological生物 argument论据.
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当然,我们可以使用生物学的角度来争论。
17:00
One can say, "OK, what are we made制作 of?"
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可以说,好,我们是什么做的?
17:02
We're made制作 of cells细胞 and stuff东东 between之间 cells细胞.
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我们是由细胞和细胞间的东西。
17:04
What can damage损伤 accumulate积累 in?
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“损害”可以累积在那里?
17:07
The answer回答 is: long-lived长寿命 molecules分子,
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答案是,长期存在的分子里,
17:09
because if a short-lived短命 molecule分子 undergoes经历 damage损伤, but then the molecule分子 is destroyed销毁 --
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因为如果一个短暂寿命的分子遭到破坏,它将会在寿命完了后被销毁 –
17:12
like by a protein蛋白 being存在 destroyed销毁 by proteolysis蛋白水解 -- then the damage损伤 is gone走了, too.
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就像蛋白质被水解摧毁 – 累积的损害也一起被销毁了。
17:16
It's got to be long-lived长寿命 molecules分子.
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所以“损害”累积的地方一定是很长寿命的分子里。
17:18
So, these seven things were all under discussion讨论 in gerontology老年病学 a long time ago
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因此[因为这个理由的很大的可能性],这七个东西,都是由老年学士很久以前就讨论过了。
17:21
and that is pretty漂亮 good news新闻, because it means手段 that,
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这是相当好的消息,因为这意味着,
17:25
you know, we've我们已经 come a long way in biology生物学 in these 20 years年份,
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尽管我们在这二十年里对生物学有着很大的成就,
17:27
so the fact事实 that we haven't没有 extended扩展 this list名单
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这份列表还只有七样东西是一个非常好的迹象,
17:29
is a pretty漂亮 good indication迹象 that there's no extension延期 to be doneDONE.
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因为它显示它已不可再增加了。
17:33
However然而, it's better than that; we actually其实 know how to fix固定 them all,
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这个消息比你们想象的更好,
17:35
in mice老鼠, in principle原理 -- and what I mean by in principle原理 is,
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因为我们在原则上知道如何在老鼠里解决所有这些七样东西 – 我所谓的原则指的是,
17:38
we probably大概 can actually其实 implement实行 these fixes修复 within a decade.
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我们或许可以真正实现在十年内这些修复治疗。
17:41
Some of them are partially部分 implemented实施 already已经, the ones那些 at the top最佳.
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其中有些[七样里的]部分已经落实了,尤其是在顶部的。
17:45
I haven't没有 got time to go through通过 them at all, but
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我[在这里]没有时间一个一个的解释,
17:48
my conclusion结论 is that, if we can actually其实 get suitable适当 funding资金 for this,
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但我的结论是,如果我们能够得到适合的资金,
17:52
then we can probably大概 develop发展 robust强大的 mouse老鼠 rejuvenation复兴 in only 10 years年份,
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那么我们或许可以在只有十年内成功发展强健的大规模人类再生[治疗科技],
17:56
but we do need to get serious严重 about it.
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但我们确实需要认真想想它。
17:59
We do need to really start开始 trying.
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我们需要真正开始尝试。
18:01
So of course课程, there are some biologists生物学家 in the audience听众,
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对于观众里的生物学家,
18:04
and I want to give some answers答案 to some of the questions问题 that you may可能 have.
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你们可能有一些问题,我会回答你们。
18:07
You may可能 have been dissatisfied不满意 with this talk,
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你可能对这个讲座有些不满,
18:09
but fundamentally从根本上 you have to go and read this stuff东东.
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但你必须去阅读这些[已经刊登在研究杂志]内容,
18:11
I've published发表 a great deal合同 on this;
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我已经刊登了对老化很多的资料;
18:13
I cite引用 the experimental试验 work on which哪一个 my optimism乐观 is based基于,
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而且我就凭着这些研究为基础对人类老化治疗科技持乐观态度,
18:16
and there's quite相当 a lot of detail详情 there.
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里头的细节还有很多。
18:18
The detail详情 is what makes品牌 me confident信心
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这些细节使我对我在这里预测的
18:20
of my rather aggressive侵略性 time frames that I'm predicting预测 here.
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相当挑战性的时间表更加有信心。
18:22
So if you think that I'm wrong错误,
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如果你觉得我错了,
18:24
you'd better damn该死的 well go and find out why you think I'm wrong错误.
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我希望你能看了这些资料以及研究报考后再来解释为什么你认为我是错的。
18:28
And of course课程 the main主要 thing is that you shouldn't不能 trust相信 people
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最主要的是你不应该相信
18:31
who call themselves他们自己 gerontologists老年医学专家 because,
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自称是老年医学的人,
18:33
as with any radical激进 departure离开 from previous以前 thinking思维 within a particular特定 field领域,
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因为在任何领域里
18:37
you know, you expect期望 people in the mainstream主流 to be a bit resistant
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如果有激进的思想变化,主流的人一定有点抵抗
18:41
and not really to take it seriously认真地.
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而且不认真的对待它。
18:43
So, you know, you've got to actually其实 do your homework家庭作业,
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所以,你必须真正做好准备工作,
18:45
in order订购 to understand理解 whether是否 this is true真正.
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才能了解这是否属实。
18:46
And we'll just end结束 with a few少数 things.
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我们在结束前就讲讲几件事。
18:48
One thing is, you know, you'll你会 be hearing听力 from a guy in the next下一个 session会议
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有一件事就是,你将会在下届会议听一个家伙说起以前,
18:51
who said some time ago that he could sequence序列 the human人的 genome基因组 in half no time,
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当他说他可以测序人类基因组时,人们是怎么的回答他。
18:55
and everyone大家 said, "Well, it's obviously明显 impossible不可能."
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每个人都说:“这是不可能的。”
18:57
And you know what happened发生.
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可是你也知道,
18:58
So, you know, this does happen发生.
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这确实发生了。
19:02
We have various各个 strategies策略 -- there's the Methuselah玛土撒拉 Mouse老鼠 Prize,
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我们有不同的策略 – 有玛士撒拉奖,
19:04
which哪一个 is basically基本上 an incentive激励 to innovate创新,
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这基本上是一个鼓励创新,
19:07
and to do what you think is going to work,
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做你认为是可行的[方法延长寿命],
19:10
and you get money for it if you win赢得.
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如果成功的话,你就可以赢钱。
19:13
There's a proposal提案 to actually其实 put together一起 an institute研究所.
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还有一个计划建议组织一个机构,
19:16
This is what's going to take a bit of money.
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可是这将会需要点钱。
19:18
But, I mean, look -- how long does it take to spend that on the war战争 in Iraq伊拉克?
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我的意思是,你看我们在伊拉克战争上耗这么久浪费了多少钱?
19:21
Not very long. OK.
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不会再久吧。好吧。
19:22
(Laughter笑声)
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(众笑)
19:23
It's got to be philanthropic慈善, because profits利润 distract转移 biotech生物技术,
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这些研究的钱的来源最好是[私人]慈善,因为利润会分散生物技术研究公司[的注意力],
19:26
but it's basically基本上 got a 90 percent百分 chance机会, I think, of succeeding下一 in this.
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但我认为它[我所提出的这些时间表和延长人类寿命的治疗科技的发展蓝图]]基本上有着百分之九十的机会成功。
19:30
And I think we know how to do it. And I'll stop there.
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因为我们已经知道应该怎么做。我就说到这里。
19:33
Thank you.
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谢谢您。
19:34
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
19:39
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: OK. I don't know if there's going to be any questions问题
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克里斯安德森:好。我不知道大家有没有问题,
19:42
but I thought I would give people the chance机会.
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但我想我会给他们机会。
19:44
Audience听众: Since以来 you've been talking about aging老化 and trying to defeat打败 it,
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观众:既然你在谈论老龄化,并试图战胜它,
19:48
why is it that you make yourself你自己 appear出现 like an old man?
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那为什么你看上去就像一位老人呢?
19:52
(Laughter笑声)
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(众笑)
19:56
AGAG: Because I am an old man. I am actually其实 158.
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奥布里德格雷:因为我是一个老人。其实我是已经是一百五十八岁。
19:59
(Laughter笑声)
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(众笑)
20:00
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
20:03
Audience听众: Species种类 on this planet行星 have evolved进化 with immune免疫的 systems系统
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观众:这个星球上的物种进化了免疫系统,
20:07
to fight斗争 off all the diseases疾病 so that individuals个人 live生活 long enough足够 to procreate生育.
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以对抗各种的疾病,使个人活到足够生育的年龄。
20:11
However然而, as far as I know, all the species种类 have evolved进化 to actually其实 die,
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不过,据我所知,所有的物种都进化到实际会死亡,
20:16
so when cells细胞 divide划分, the telomerase端粒酶 get shorter, and eventually终于 species种类 die.
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因此,当细胞分裂时,端粒酶变得越来越短了,最终物种死亡。
20:21
So, why does -- evolution演化 has -- seems似乎 to have selected against反对 immortality不朽,
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那么,为什么进化过程似乎已选定‘针对’永存不朽?
20:26
when it is so advantageous有利, or is evolution演化 just incomplete残缺?
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或者那只是进化过程还不完整?
20:30
AGAG: Brilliant辉煌. Thank you for asking a question
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奥布里德格雷:好!谢谢你问一个我可以
20:32
that I can answer回答 with an uncontroversial没有争议 answer回答.
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用一个没有争议的答案来回答你。
20:34
I'm going to tell you the genuine真正 mainstream主流 answer回答 to your question,
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我要告诉你主流思想的答案来回答你的问题,
20:37
which哪一个 I happen发生 to agree同意 with,
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我也恰巧同意这个答案。
20:39
which哪一个 is that, no, aging老化 is not a product产品 of selection选择, evolution演化;
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那就是,不,老化不是一个进化过程的后果,
20:42
[aging老化] is simply只是 a product产品 of evolutionary发展的 neglect忽略.
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只是进化过程所忽视的后果。
20:45
In other words, we have aging老化 because it's hard work not to have aging老化;
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换句话说,我们会老化,因为没有老化的话比较难;
20:50
you need more genetic遗传 pathways途径, more sophistication诡辩 in your genes基因
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[因为]你需要更多的遗传途径,你的基因需要变得更复杂,
20:52
in order订购 to age年龄 more slowly慢慢地,
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以便让你老的比较慢些,
20:54
and that carries携带 on being存在 true真正 the longer you push it out.
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而且你越想要把老化推迟,你[的身体的进化过程]就越需要面对这些难题。
20:57
So, to the extent程度 that evolution演化 doesn't matter,
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因此,到进化不重要的程度,
21:02
doesn't care关心 whether是否 genes基因 are passed通过 on by individuals个人,
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不在乎是个体,
21:04
living活的 a long time or by procreation生殖,
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或则生活的很长的一段时间,
21:07
there's a certain某些 amount of modulation调制 of that,
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或则靠生育种种方法来把基因传给下一代,有一定的调节,
21:09
which哪一个 is why different不同 species种类 have different不同 lifespans寿命,
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这就是为什么不同物种有不同的寿命,
21:12
but that's why there are no immortal不朽 species种类.
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但是这就是为什么没有永存的物种。
21:15
CACA: The genes基因 don't care关心 but we do?
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克里斯安德森:这些基因并不关心,但我们关心?
21:17
AGAG: That's right.
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奥布里德格雷:是的。
21:19
Audience听众: Hello你好. I read somewhere某处 that in the last 20 years年份,
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观众:您好。我听说在过去的二十年中,
21:24
the average平均 lifespan寿命 of basically基本上 anyone任何人 on the planet行星 has grown长大的 by 10 years年份.
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基本上这个星球上的人的平均寿命增长了十年。
21:29
If I project项目 that, that would make me think
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如果以这个资料推断,如果我没有在我的摩托车上发生任何事故,
21:32
that I would live生活 until直到 120 if I don't crash紧急 on my motorbike摩托车.
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我将能够活到一百二十岁。
21:37
That means手段 that I'm one of your subjects主题 to become成为 a 1,000-year-old-岁?
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这意味着,我将会变成你所谓能够活到一千年研究课题之一?
21:42
AGAG: If you lose失去 a bit of weight重量.
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奥布里德格雷:如果你瘦一点儿。
21:44
(Laughter笑声)
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(众笑)
21:47
Your numbers数字 are a bit out.
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你的数据有点出入。
21:50
The standard标准 numbers数字 are that lifespans寿命
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标准的数字是,
21:53
have been growing生长 at between之间 one and two years年份 per decade.
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寿命已经在每十年增长一至两年。
21:56
So, it's not quite相当 as good as you might威力 think, you might威力 hope希望.
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因此,它不是你觉得或希望的那么好。
22:00
But I intend打算 to move移动 it up to one year per year as soon不久 as possible可能.
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不过,我打算尽快将它快速发展到每年寿命多一年。
22:03
Audience听众: I was told that many许多 of the brain cells细胞 we have as adults成年人
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观众:我被告知,许多我们成人的脑细胞,
22:06
are actually其实 in the human人的 embryo,
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实际上在胚胎里是就有了,
22:08
and that the brain cells细胞 last 80 years年份 or so.
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而脑细胞能活八十年左右的时间。
22:10
If that is indeed确实 true真正,
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如果事实的确如此,
22:12
biologically生物 are there implications启示 in the world世界 of rejuvenation复兴?
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在生理的角度看,对再生[科技]的世界会有什么影响?
22:15
If there are cells细胞 in my body身体 that live生活 all 80 years年份,
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如果在我身体的所有细胞,
22:18
as opposed反对 to a typical典型, you know, couple一对 of months个月?
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可以活到八十年,而不是一个典型的在两个月就死去的细胞?
22:20
AGAG: There are technical技术 implications启示 certainly当然.
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奥布里德格雷:当然,这是技术问题。
22:22
Basically基本上 what we need to do is replace更换 cells细胞
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基本上我们需要做的是取代大脑
22:26
in those few少数 areas of the brain that lose失去 cells细胞 at a respectable可敬 rate,
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的几个领域的细胞的流失率,
22:29
especially特别 neurons神经元, but we don't want to replace更换 them
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尤其是神经元,但我们不想比
22:32
any faster更快 than that -- or not much faster更快 anyway无论如何,
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那流失率更快地取代任何细胞 –
22:34
because replacing更换 them too fast快速 would degrade降级 cognitive认知 function功能.
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因为更换地太快会降低认知功能。
22:38
What I said about there being存在 no non-aging不老化 species种类 earlier on
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我刚刚说的没有不老化物种
22:41
was a little bit of an oversimplification简单化.
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是有点过于简单化。
22:43
There are species种类 that have no aging老化 -- Hydra水润 for example --
503
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有些物种没有老化。例如水螅 –
22:47
but they do it by not having a nervous紧张 system系统 --
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因为他们没有一个神经系统 –
22:49
and not having any tissues组织 in fact事实 that rely依靠 for their function功能
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也没有任何用于老化的的细胞
22:51
on very long-lived长寿命 cells细胞.
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却有长寿的细胞组织。
Translated by feng sim
Reviewed by Angelia King

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Aubrey de Grey - Crusader against aging
Aubrey de Grey, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born.

Why you should listen

A true maverick, Aubrey de Grey challenges the most basic assumption underlying the human condition -- that aging is inevitable. He argues instead that aging is a disease -- one that can be cured if it's approached as "an engineering problem." His plan calls for identifying all the components that cause human tissue to age, and designing remedies for each of them — forestalling disease and eventually pushing back death. He calls the approach Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS).

With his astonishingly long beard, wiry frame and penchant for bold and cutting proclamations, de Grey is a magnet for controversy. A computer scientist, self-taught biogerontologist and researcher, he has co-authored journal articles with some of the most respected scientists in the field.

But the scientific community doesn't know what to make of him. In July 2005, the MIT Technology Review challenged scientists to disprove de Grey's claims, offering a $20,000 prize (half the prize money was put up by de Grey's Methuselah Foundation) to any molecular biologist who could demonstrate that "SENS is so wrong that it is unworthy of learned debate." The challenge remains open; the judging panel includes TEDsters Craig Venter and Nathan Myhrvold. It seems that "SENS exists in a middle ground of yet-to-be-tested ideas that some people may find intriguing but which others are free to doubt," MIT's judges wrote. And while they "don't compel the assent of many knowledgeable scientists," they're also "not demonstrably wrong."

More profile about the speaker
Aubrey de Grey | Speaker | TED.com