ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economist
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future,

Why you should listen

Daniel Goldstein studies decision-making -- especially how humans make economic and social decisions over the course of our lives, and how we can give ourselves the right incentives, reminders, and rules of thumb to make long-term smart choices rather than short-term fun choices. He runs the blog Decision Science News. Dan is Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research, a former professor at London Business School, and member of the academic advisory board of the Behavioural Insights Team in the UK (aka the Nudge Unit). In 2015, he became President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, the largest academic society in Behavioral Economics.

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSalon NY2011

Daniel Goldstein: The battle between your present and future self

Daniel Goldstein: 你現在和未來的自我之間的戰鬥

Filmed:
2,548,111 views

每一天,我們都為今後我們自我的後果作出好或壞的決定。(我可不可以就這​​一次不用牙線呢?)Daniel Goldstein創制方法幫助我們推想隨著時間推移的自己,讓我們為未來作出明智的選擇。
- Behavioral economist
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future, Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
Do you remember記得 the story故事
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你記不記得
00:17
of Odysseus奧德修斯 and the Sirens警報器
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從高中或初中
00:19
from high school學校 or junior初級 high school學校?
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奧德修斯和塞壬的故事嗎?
00:21
There was this hero英雄, Odysseus奧德修斯, who's誰是 heading標題 back home
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有這一個英雄, 奧德修斯,剛從
00:24
after the Trojan木馬 War戰爭.
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特洛伊戰爭戰後回家。
00:26
And he's standing常設 on the deck甲板 of his ship,
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他站立在他的的船的甲板上,
00:28
he's talking to his first mate伴侶,
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他和他的第一副手,
00:30
and he's saying,
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談着說:
00:32
"Tomorrow明天, we will sail past過去 those rocks岩石,
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「明天,我們將駛過那些岩石去,
00:35
and on those rocks岩石 sit some beautiful美麗 women婦女
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在這些岩石上會坐着一群美麗的女子,
00:37
called Sirens警報器.
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她們稱為塞壬。
00:39
And these women婦女 sing an enchanting妖嬈 song歌曲,
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而這群女子會唱着一首迷人的歌曲,
00:42
a song歌曲 so alluring誘人
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那首如此誘人的歌曲,
00:44
that all sailors水手 who hear it
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令到所有水手聽到都着迷,
00:46
crash緊急 into the rocks岩石 and die."
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撞到岩石而死亡。」
00:48
Now you would expect期望, given特定 that,
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現在你當然以為鑑於這個原因,
00:50
that they would choose選擇 an alternate備用 route路線 around the Sirens警報器,
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他們會選擇另一條迴避塞壬們的路徑,
00:53
but instead代替 Odysseus奧德修斯 says,
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但奧德修斯竟然說:
00:56
"I want to hear that song歌曲.
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「我想聽到這首歌。
00:58
And so what I'm going to do
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而我要做的是要
01:00
is I'm going to pour wax in the ears耳朵
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在你和所有人的耳朵中
01:02
of you and all the men男人 --
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倒進蠟--
01:04
stay with me --
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等着--
01:06
so that you can't hear the song歌曲,
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你們便聽不到這首歌,
01:08
and then I'm going to have you tie領帶 me to the mast桅杆
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然後你們要把我綁在桅杆上,
01:11
so that I can listen
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那我便可以聽到這首歌,
01:13
and we can all sail by unaffected未受影響."
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而我們都可以不受影響順利渡過。」
01:15
So this is a captain隊長
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這是一個
01:18
putting the life of every一切 single person on the ship at risk風險
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只為了聽到一首歌曲, 而願意妄顧船上
01:20
so that he can hear a song歌曲.
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每一個人安危的隊長。
01:22
And I'd like to think if this was the case案件,
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而且我覺得如果是這種情況,
01:24
they probably大概 would have rehearsed排練 it a few少數 times.
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他們理應先會排練幾次。
01:27
Odysseus奧德修斯 would have said, "Okay, let's do a dry run.
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奧德修斯會說: 「好吧,讓我們試試做。
01:30
You tie領帶 me to the mast桅杆, and I'm going to beg and plead求情.
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當你把我綁在桅杆上,我會央求你把我釋放。
01:33
And no matter what I say, you cannot不能 untie解開 me from the mast桅杆.
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無論我說什麼,你不可以都解開我。
01:35
All right, so tie領帶 me to the mast桅杆."
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好, 現在把我綁在桅杆上吧。」
01:37
And the first mate伴侶 takes a rope
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大副便拿着繩子
01:39
and ties聯繫 Odysseus奧德修斯 to the mast桅杆 in a nice不錯 knot.
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把奧德修斯綁在桅杆上,結了一個漂亮的結。
01:42
And Odysseus奧德修斯 does his best最好 job工作 playacting演戲
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然後奧德修斯假裝演着說,
01:44
and says, "Untie解開 me. Untie解開 me.
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「解開我, 解開我。
01:46
I want to hear that song歌曲. Untie解開 me."
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我想聽聽這首歌。解開我。」
01:48
And the first mate伴侶 wisely明智 resists光刻膠
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大副明智地抗拒
01:50
and doesn't untie解開 Odysseus奧德修斯.
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和不解開奧德修斯。
01:52
And then Odysseus奧德修斯 says, "I see that you can get it.
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然後奧德修斯說,「好, 我看到你是行的。
01:55
All right, untie解開 me now and we'll get some dinner晚餐."
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好, 把我解開, 然後我們去吃晚餐。」
01:58
And the first mate伴侶 hesitates猶豫.
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大副遲疑。
02:00
He's like, "Is this still the rehearsal排演,
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他在想: 「這是否仍是排練?
02:02
or should I untie解開 him?"
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或是我應該解開他呢?」
02:05
And the first mate伴侶 thinks,
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大副在想:
02:07
"Well, I guess猜測 at some point the rehearsal排演 has to end結束."
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「好吧,排練都應該有結束的時候。」
02:10
So he unties解開 Odysseus奧德修斯, and Odysseus奧德修斯 flips翻轉 out.
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於是,他解開了奧德修斯,而奧德修斯卻大發雷霆,
02:13
He's like, "You idiot白痴. You moron白痴.
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罵着: 「你這個白痴。你這個蠢材。
02:15
If you do that tomorrow明天, I'll be dead, you'll你會 be dead,
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如果明天你這樣做,我會死,你會死的,
02:17
every一切 single one of the men男人 will be dead.
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每一個人都會死亡。
02:19
Now just don't untie解開 me no matter what."
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只要無論如何都不要解開我。」
02:22
He throws the first mate伴侶 to the ground地面.
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他把大副推到地上。
02:24
This repeats重複 itself本身 through通過 the night --
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整夜這個過程一再重複--
02:26
rehearsal排演, tying搭售 to the mast桅杆,
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排練,綁在桅杆上,
02:28
conning精讀 his way out of it,
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奧德修斯哄騙着要解開他,
02:30
beating跳動 the poor較差的 first mate伴侶 up mercilessly無情.
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毫不留情地毆打那個可憐的大副。
02:33
Hilarity歡鬧 ensues隨之而來.
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鬧劇隨之而來。
02:36
Tying搭售 yourself你自己 to a mast桅杆
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把自己綁在桅杆
02:38
is perhaps也許 the oldest最老的 written書面 example
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也許是心理學家最長久有書寫記錄
02:40
of what psychologists心理學家 call a commitment承諾 device設備.
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所說的稱為承諾設備的例子。
02:43
A commitment承諾 device設備 is a decision決定 that you make
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承諾設備是一個你以冷靜頭腦
02:46
with a cool head to bind捆綁 yourself你自己
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作出的決定來約束自己,
02:49
so that you don't do something regrettable遺憾
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是以讓你不要當你脾气急躁時
02:51
when you have a hot head.
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做一些遺憾的事情。
02:54
Because there's two heads inside one person
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因為當你想想看, 人內其實
02:56
when you think about it.
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有兩個頭腦。
02:58
Scholars學者 have long invoked調用 this metaphor隱喻 of two selves自我
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當涉及到的誘惑力的問題,
03:01
when it comes to questions問題 of temptation誘惑.
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學者早就調用到這兩個自我的比喻。
03:04
There is first, the present當下 self.
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首先是, 目前的自我。
03:07
This is like Odysseus奧德修斯 when he's hearing聽力 the song歌曲.
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這是像奧德修斯聽到這首歌的時候。
03:10
He just wants to get to the front面前 row.
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他只想去坐前排。
03:12
He just thinks about the here and now and the immediate即時 gratification享樂.
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他只是想到此時此地和當下的滿足。
03:15
But then there's this other self, the future未來 self.
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但另一個自我, 是未來的自我。
03:18
This is Odysseus奧德修斯 as an old man
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這是奧德修斯作為一個老人,
03:20
who wants nothing more than to retire退休 in a sunny晴朗 villa別墅
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一個想要在陽光明媚伊薩卡外的別墅,
03:23
with his wife妻子 Penelope佩內​​洛普
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和他的妻子佩內洛普退休
03:25
outside of Ithaca伊薩卡 -- the other one.
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的奧德修斯,另一個自我。
03:31
So why do we need commitment承諾 devices設備?
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那麼,為什麼我們需要承諾的設備?
03:35
Well resisting抵制 temptation誘惑 is hard,
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因為抗拒誘惑是很困難的,
03:37
as the 19th century世紀 English英語 economist經濟學家
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如19世紀英國經濟學家
03:40
Nassau拿騷 William威廉 Senior前輩 said,
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老拿騷威廉說:
03:42
"To abstain避免 from the enjoyment享受 which哪一個 is in our power功率,
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「要放棄我們有權力掌管的享受,
03:45
or to seek尋求 distant遙遠 rather than immediate即時 results結果,
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或是要企圖遙遠規避而不享有即時的效果,
03:48
are among其中 the most painful痛苦 exertions賣力
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是對人類意志最痛苦
03:50
of the human人的 will."
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費力的事。」
03:52
If you set goals目標 for yourself你自己 and you're like a lot of other people,
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像其他很多人一樣, 如果你為自己設定目標,
03:55
you probably大概 realize實現
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你可能會意識到
03:57
it's not that your goals目標 are physically物理 impossible不可能
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不是你的目標過於高不可攀
03:59
that's keeping保持 you from achieving實現 them,
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令你不可能實現,
04:01
it's that you lack缺乏 the self-discipline自律 to stick to them.
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而是你缺乏自律去堅持。
04:04
It's physically物理 possible可能 to lose失去 weight重量.
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減肥是物理上有可能實現的。
04:06
It's physically物理 possible可能 to exercise行使 more.
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要多點運動物理上是有可能的。
04:09
But resisting抵制 temptation誘惑
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但抵制誘惑
04:11
is hard.
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是很難。
04:13
The other reason原因
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另外一個原因
04:15
that it's difficult to resist temptation誘惑
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令誘惑難以抗拒,
04:18
is because it's an unequal不等 battle戰鬥
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是因為在目前的自我
04:21
between之間 the present當下 self and the future未來 self.
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和未來的自我之間有著不平等的戰鬥。
04:23
I mean, let's face面對 it, the present當下 self is present當下.
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我的意思是,面對現實吧,現在的自我是現在。
04:25
It's in control控制. It's in power功率 right now.
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它在控制。它現在在控制權力。
04:28
It has these strong強大, heroic英勇 arms武器
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它有著這些強大的,英勇的胳膊,
04:30
that can lift電梯 doughnuts甜甜圈 into your mouth.
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可以把甜圈放在你的口中。
04:32
And the future未來 self is not even around.
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而未來的自我根甚本不存。
04:35
It's off in the future未來. It's weak.
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它在未來。它薄弱。
04:38
It doesn't even have a lawyer律師 present當下.
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它甚至沒有律師在場。
04:40
There's nobody沒有人 to stick up for the future未來 self.
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沒有人堅持為未來的自我爭辯。
04:42
And so the present當下 self can trounce打敗
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所以現在的自我可以打垮
04:45
all over its dreams.
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所有未來的夢想。
04:47
So there's this battle戰鬥 between之間 the two selves自我 that's being存在 fought戰鬥,
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這自我兩者之間的鬥爭在戰鬥中,
04:51
and we need commitment承諾 devices設備
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我們需要的承諾設備
04:53
to level水平 the playing播放 field領域 between之間 the two.
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來公平平整兩者之間的競爭環境。
04:56
Now I'm a big fan風扇 of commitment承諾 devices設備 actually其實.
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事實上我是承諾設備的擁躉。
04:59
Tying搭售 yourself你自己 to the mast桅杆 is the oldest最老的 one, but there are other ones那些
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把自己綁在桅杆上是最古老的一例,但也有其他的,
05:02
such這樣 as locking鎖定 a credit信用 card away with a key
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例如把信用卡用鑰匙鎖着
05:06
or not bringing使 junk破爛 food餐飲 into the house so you won't慣於 eat it
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或不把垃圾食品帶回家,這樣你便不會吃它,
05:09
or unplugging拔出 your Internet互聯網 connection連接
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或拔走互聯網連接,
05:11
so you can use your computer電腦.
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因此你可以實在使用你的電腦。
05:13
I was creating創建 commitment承諾 devices設備 of my own擁有
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我早在未認識承諾設備之前
05:15
long before I knew知道 what they were.
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已經創造我自己的承諾設。
05:17
So when I was a starving挨餓 post-doc博士後
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當我還是一個身無長物的哥倫比亞大學
05:19
at Columbia哥倫比亞 University大學,
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博士畢業生,
05:21
I was deep in a publish-or-perish發布 - 或 - 滅亡 phase of my career事業.
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當時我的職業生涯是在於發布或滅亡的階段。
05:24
I had to write five pages網頁 a day
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我要為文章
05:26
towards papers文件
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每一天寫五頁,
05:28
or I would have to give up five dollars美元.
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否則我便要放棄五塊錢。
05:31
And when you try to execute執行 these commitment承諾 devices設備,
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且當你嘗試執行這些承諾設備的時候,
05:34
you realize實現 the devil魔鬼 is really in the details細節.
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你會意識到真正的苦處在於細節。
05:36
Because it's not that easy簡單 to get rid擺脫 of five dollars美元.
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因為要擺脫五塊錢不是那麼容易。
05:39
I mean, you can't burn燒傷 it; that's illegal非法.
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我的意思是,你可以不燒它,這是非法的。
05:42
And I thought, well I could give it to a charity慈善機構
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我想,我可以把它捐贈給一個慈善機構,
05:44
or give it to my wife妻子 or something like that.
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或把它給我的妻子, 等等。
05:46
But then I thought, oh, I'm sending發出 myself mixed messages消息.
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但轉念一想,哦,我是在給予自己混淆的訊息。
05:48
Because not writing寫作 is bad, but giving to charity慈善機構 is good.
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因為不寫作是不好,但給慈善機構是好的。
05:51
So then I would kind of justify辯解 not writing寫作
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以給他人一種賜予, 那麼想
05:53
by giving a gift禮品.
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我便有理由不寫作。
05:55
And then I kind of flipped翻轉 that around and thought,
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然後,我會這樣的翻轉左右思想,
05:57
well I could give it to the neo-Nazis新納粹.
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我可以把它給予新納粹分子。
05:59
But then I was like, that's more bad than writing寫作 is good,
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但我便會想,這其實比寫作更壞,
06:02
and so that wouldn't不會 work.
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這樣想行不通。
06:04
So ultimately最終, I just decided決定
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所以,最後我決定
06:06
I would leave離開 it in an envelope信封 on the subway地鐵.
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我會把它放入一個信封內並留在地鐵上。
06:09
Sometimes有時 a good person would find it,
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有時一個好人會找到它,
06:11
sometimes有時 a bad person would find it.
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有時一個壞人會找到它。
06:13
On average平均, it was just a completely全然 pointless無意義 exchange交換 of money
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平均而言,它只是一個完全沒有意義掉錢的方法,
06:16
that I would regret後悔.
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以我至會後悔。
06:18
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
06:21
Such這樣 it is with commitment承諾 devices設備.
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它便是承諾的設備。
06:24
But despite儘管 my like for them,
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但儘管我喜歡它們,
06:28
there's two nagging嘮叨 concerns關注
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我一直有兩個
06:30
that I've always had about commitment承諾 devices設備,
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關於承諾設備的顧慮,
06:32
and you might威力 feel this if you use them yourself你自己.
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如果你使用它們自己, 你都可能會發覺到。
06:34
So the first is,
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第一個是,
06:36
when you've got one of these devices設備 going,
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當你已經有了這些設備,
06:38
such這樣 as this contract合同 to write everyday每天 or pay工資,
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例如要經常寫作否則要付帳,
06:41
it's just a constant不變 reminder提醒
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它只是不斷地提醒
06:43
that you have no self-control自我控制.
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你有沒有自我控制的能力。
06:45
You're just telling告訴 yourself你自己, "Without沒有 you, commitment承諾 device設備,
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你只是在告訴自己:「如果沒有你,承諾設備,
06:47
I am nothing, I have no self-discipline自律."
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我什麼也不是,我不能自律。」
06:50
And then when you're ever in a situation情況
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然後當你在一個沒有
06:52
where you don't have a commitment承諾 device設備 in place地點 --
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承諾設備安設的情況--
06:55
like, "Oh my God, that person's人的 offering me a doughnut甜甜圈,
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「噢我的天,那個人要給我一個甜圈,
06:57
and I have no defense防禦 mechanism機制," --
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而我沒有任何的防禦機制,」--
06:59
you just eat it.
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你便把它吃掉了。
07:01
So I don't like the way that they take the power功率 away from you.
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因此,我並不喜歡它們能夠有遠離你的權力。
07:04
I think self-discipline自律 is something, it's like a muscle肌肉.
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我認為自律是一種東西,它像一塊肌肉。
07:07
The more you exercise行使 it, the stronger it gets得到.
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你鍛煉它,它便更強壯。
07:10
The other problem問題 with commitment承諾 devices設備
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承諾設備的另一個問題是,
07:12
is that you can always weasel黃鼠狼 your way out of them.
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你可以耍滑头逃脱它們。
07:15
You say, "Well, of course課程 I can't write today今天,
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你會說:「好了,今天我當然不能寫作,
07:17
because I'm giving a TEDTalkTED演講 and I have five media媒體 interviews面試,
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因為我要給TEDTalk演說, 以及5家媒體採訪,
07:20
and then I'm going to a cocktail雞尾酒 party派對 and then I'll be drunk after that.
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然後我要去一個雞尾酒會,然後我便會喝醉。
07:23
And so there's no way that this is going to work."
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所以根本沒有辦法執筆。」
07:26
So in effect影響, you are like Odysseus奧德修斯 and the first mate伴侶
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這樣實際上,你像是奧德修斯和大副
07:28
in one person.
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混合為一人。
07:30
You're putting yourself你自己, you're binding捆綁 yourself你自己,
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你把你自己,你綁定你自己,
07:33
and you're weaselingweaseling your way out of it,
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和你正在滑头地逃脱,
07:35
and then you're beating跳動 yourself你自己 up afterwards之後.
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然而之後你便會責備自己。」
07:37
So I've been working加工
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因此我一直在工作了
07:39
for about a decade now
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近十年,
07:41
on finding發現 other ways方法
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在尋找其他的方法
07:43
to change更改 people's人們 relationship關係 to the future未來 self
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不使用承諾設備來改變
07:45
without using運用 commitment承諾 devices設備.
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人與未來自的我的關係。
07:47
In particular特定, I'm interested有興趣 in the relationship關係
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我的興趣特別是在於與
07:50
to the future未來 financial金融 self.
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未來自我財政的關係。
07:54
And this is a timely及時 issue問題.
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這是一個涉及時間的問題。
07:56
I'm talking about the topic話題 of saving保存.
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我說的是節儉積蓄的話題。
07:58
Now saving保存 is a classic經典 two selves自我 problem問題.
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節能是一個典型的兩個自我的問題。
08:00
The present當下 self does not want to save保存 at all.
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如今的自我完全不希望儲蓄。
08:03
It wants to consume消耗.
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它想花費。
08:05
Whereas the future未來 self wants the present當下 self to save保存.
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而未來的自我卻希望目前的自我儲蓄。
08:09
So this is a timely及時 problem問題.
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這是一個涉及時間的問題。
08:11
We look at the savings rate
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看看我們的儲蓄率,
08:13
and it has been declining下降 since以來 the 1950s.
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它自50年代以來一直下降。
08:16
At the same相同 time, the Retirement退休 Risk風險 Index指數,
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與此同時,退休風險指數,
08:19
the chance機會 of not being存在 able能夠 to meet遇到 your needs需求 in retirement退休,
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未能在退休後滿足你需求的機會,
08:22
has been increasing增加.
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一直在上升。
08:24
And we're at a situation情況 now
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而現在我們的情況是,
08:26
where for every一切 three baby寶寶 boomers,
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每三個嬰兒潮一代的人,
08:28
the McKinsey麥肯錫 Global全球 Institute研究所 predicts預測
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麥肯錫全球研究所預計,
08:30
that two will not be able能夠 to meet遇到 their pre-retirement退休前 needs需求
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在他們退休的時候。有兩個將無法
08:34
while they're in retirement退休.
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滿足其退休前的需要。
08:36
So what can we do about this?
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那我們可以做些什麼呢?
08:39
There's a philosopher哲學家, Derek德里克 Parfit帕菲特,
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有一個哲學家,德瑞克•帕菲特,
08:42
who said some words that were inspiring鼓舞人心 to my coauthors合作者 and I.
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他說了一些對我和我的合著者甚有發啟性話的,
08:45
He said that, "We might威力 neglect忽略 our future未來 selves自我
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他說: 「我們可能會忽視我們未來的自我,
08:48
because of some failure失敗 of belief信仰 or imagination想像力."
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皆因一些失敗的信念或想像力。」
08:52
That is to say,
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這就是說,
08:54
we somehow不知何故 might威力 not believe that we're going to get old,
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我們不知何故可能不相信我們會變老,
08:57
or we might威力 not be able能夠 to imagine想像
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或我們可能無法想像
08:59
that we're going to get old some day.
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一天會變老。
09:01
On the one hand, it sounds聲音 ridiculous荒謬.
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一方面,這聽上去有些可笑。
09:03
Of course課程, we know that we're going to get old.
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當然,我們知道,我們無疑會變老。
09:05
But aren't there things that we believe and don't believe at the same相同 time?
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我們是不是有一些我們在同一時間相信和不相信的東西呢?
09:08
So my coauthors合作者 and I have used computers電腦,
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所以我和我的合著者使用電腦,
09:11
the greatest最大 tool工具 of our time,
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我們這個時代最偉大的工具,
09:13
to assist助攻 people's人們 imagination想像力
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以協助人們的想像力,
09:15
and help them imagine想像 what it might威力 be like
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並幫助他們想像進入未來
09:18
to go into the future未來.
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可能會是怎麼樣。
09:20
And I'll show顯示 you some of these tools工具 right here.
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而我會在這裡告訴你其中一些工具。
09:23
The first is called the distribution分配 builder建設者.
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首先的是所謂分佈的建設。
09:25
It shows節目 people what the future未來 might威力 be like
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由一百個在未來同樣可能
09:28
by showing展示 them a hundred equally一樣 probable可能 outcomes結果
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獲得的結果, 它顯示了
09:31
that might威力 be obtained獲得 in the future未來.
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人在未來的可能。
09:33
Each outcome結果 is shown顯示 by one of these markers標記,
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每一個結果由這些標誌物顯示,
09:36
and each sits坐鎮 on a row
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每個坐在一排,
09:38
that represents代表 a level水平 of wealth財富 and retirement退休.
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代表了財富和退休的水平。
09:40
Being存在 up at the top最佳
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在頂部的
09:42
means手段 that you're enjoying享受 a high income收入 in retirement退休.
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意味著你退休後享受高的收入。
09:44
Being存在 down at the bottom底部
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在底部的
09:46
means手段 that you're struggling奮鬥的 to make ends結束 meet遇到.
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便意味著你掙扎地入不敷出。
09:48
When you make an investment投資,
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當你作出投資時,
09:50
what you're really saying is, "I accept接受
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你真的是在說:「我接受
09:52
that any one of these 100 things
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這100件事情中任何的一件
09:54
could happen發生 to me and determine確定 my wealth財富."
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都可能會發生在我身上,並會決定我的財富。」
09:56
Now you can try to move移動 your outcomes結果 around.
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刻下你可以嘗試將你的成果推動攪拌。
09:59
You can try to manipulate操作 your fate命運, like this person is doing,
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你可以嘗試操縱自己的命運,這個人便正是這樣做,
10:02
but it costs成本 you something to do it.
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但你這樣做要有代價。
10:04
It means手段 that you have to save保存 more today今天.
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這意味著你有今天要節省更多。
10:08
Once一旦 you find an investment投資 that you're happy快樂 with,
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一旦你找到你合意的投資,
10:10
what people do is they click點擊 "doneDONE"
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只要點擊「完成」,
10:12
and the markers標記 begin開始 to disappear消失,
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標記會開始消失,
10:14
slowly慢慢地, one by one.
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慢慢地,一個跟一個。
10:16
It simulates可模擬 what it is like to invest投資 in something
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它模擬投資的東西,
10:18
and to watch that investment投資 pan out.
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和顯示投資的成績。
10:21
At the end結束, there will only be one marker標記 left standing常設
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最後,只會剩下一個標記,
10:24
and it will determine確定 our wealth財富 in retirement退休.
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它將決定我們在退休的財富。
10:27
Yes, this person retired退休
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不錯,這個人
10:29
at 150 percent百分 of their working加工 income收入 in retirement退休.
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在他在退休後的收入是工作時收入的150%。
10:33
They're making製造 more money while retired退休
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他們退休時比工作時
10:35
than they were making製造 while they were working加工.
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賺得更多。
10:37
If you're like most people,
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如果你像大多數人一樣,
10:39
just seeing眼看 that gave you a small sense of elation高昂 and joy喜悅 --
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只是看到了這個你便會感到小小得意和喜悅--
10:43
just to think about making製造
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只是要想想
10:45
50 percent百分 more money in retirement退休 than before.
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退休時有比以前約50%更多的錢。
10:48
However然而, had you ended結束 up on the very bottom底部,
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然而,倘若你在最底層,
10:50
it might威力 have given特定 you a slight輕微 sense
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它可能會給你一個輕微的
10:52
of dread恐懼 and/or nausea噁心
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恐懼和/或噁心的感覺,
10:54
thinking思維 about struggling奮鬥的 to get by in retirement退休.
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想到退休後在掙扎生活。
10:58
By using運用 this tool工具 over and over
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通過使用這個工具一遍又一遍
11:00
and simulating模擬 outcome結果 after outcome結果,
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和模擬大量結果後,
11:03
people can understand理解
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人們可以理解,
11:05
that the investments投資 and savings that they undertake承擔 today今天
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今天他們所承擔的儲蓄和投資
11:08
determine確定 their well-being福利 in the future未來.
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決定他們在未來的福祉。
11:10
Now people are motivated動機 through通過 emotions情緒,
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人是通過情緒的刺激動機,
11:13
but different不同 people find different不同 things motivating激勵.
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但不同的人是會以不同的東西感到激勵。
11:16
This is a simulation模擬
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這是一個使用
11:19
that uses使用 graphics圖像,
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圖形的模擬,
11:21
but other people find motivating激勵 what money can buy購買,
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但其他人會看到錢可以買什麼而激勵感到,
11:23
not just numbers數字.
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不只是數字。
11:25
So here I made製作 a distribution分配 builder建設者
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所以我製造一個生產分佈的建設器,
11:27
where instead代替 of showing展示 numerical數字的 outcomes結果,
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不是顯示數值結果,
11:30
I show顯示 people what those outcomes結果 will get you,
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而是我告訴人們這些成果將會買得什麼,
11:33
in particular特定 apartments公寓 that you can afford給予
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例如你退休每月有3000元,
11:35
if you're retiring退休的 on 3,000, 2,500,
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2500元,或2000元
11:38
2,000 dollars美元 per month and so on.
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便會買得起的公寓等等。
11:41
As you move移動 down the ladder階梯 of apartments公寓,
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當你移動公寓的層次向下,
11:43
you see that they get worse更差 and worse更差.
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你可以看到它們越來越差。
11:46
Some of them look like places地方 I lived生活 in as a graduate畢業 student學生.
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其中一些看起來像我作為一個研究生起居的地方。
11:50
And as you get to the very bottom底部,
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到最底層,
11:54
you're faced面對 with the unfortunate不幸的 reality現實
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你會面對不幸的現實,
11:56
that if you don't save保存 anything for retirement退休,
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如果你不為退休儲蓄什麼,
11:58
you won't慣於 be able能夠 to afford給予 any housing住房 at all.
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你根本不會能夠負擔得起任何房屋。
12:01
Those are actual實際 pictures圖片 of actual實際 apartments公寓
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這些實實在在都是在互聯網上
12:03
renting租房 for that amount
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刊登廣告的圖片,
12:05
as advertised廣告 on the Internet互聯網.
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顯示租用公寓的數額。
12:07
The last thing I'll show顯示 you,
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最後我告訴你的一件事,
12:09
the last behavioral行為的 time machine,
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是一個行為時間機器,
12:11
is something that I created創建 with Hal哈爾 HershfieldHershfield,
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是我和Hal Hershfield合作創建的東西,
12:14
who was introduced介紹 to me by my coauthor合著者 on a previous以前 project項目,
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他便是給我介紹之前提及的項目合著者的人,
12:17
Bill法案 Sharpe夏普.
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Bill Sharpe。
12:19
And what it is
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它是是一個
12:21
is an exploration勘探 into virtual虛擬 reality現實.
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進入虛擬現實的探索。
12:23
So what we do is we take pictures圖片 of people --
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我們要做的是攝取人們的照片 --
12:26
in this case案件, college-age大學年齡 people --
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在這個例子,大學年齡的人--
12:28
and we use software軟件 to age年齡 them
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然後我們使用軟件變老他們的面容,
12:30
and show顯示 these people what they'll他們會 look like
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並顯示給他們看,他們在
12:33
when they're 60, 70, 80 years年份 old.
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60, 70, 80歲時將會是什麼樣子。
12:35
And we try to test測試
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我們試圖測試
12:37
whether是否 actually其實 assisting協助 your imagination想像力
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實際協助你的想像力
12:40
by looking at the face面對 of your future未來 self
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來面對你未來的自我,
12:42
can change更改 you investment投資 behavior行為.
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是否可以改變你投資的作風。
12:44
So this is one of our experiments實驗.
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這是我們的實驗之一。
12:47
Here we see the face面對 of the young年輕 subject學科 on the left.
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在這裡,我們看到在左邊的年輕人的面孔。
12:50
He's given特定 a control控制
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他被給予一個控制,
12:52
that allows允許 him to adjust調整 his savings rate.
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讓他能夠調整自己的儲蓄率。
12:54
As he moves移動 his savings rate down,
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當他將他的儲蓄率下降,
12:56
it means手段 that he's saving保存 zero
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意味著他的儲蓄為零時,
12:58
when it's all the way here at the left.
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直到最左邊。
13:00
You can see his current當前 annual全年 income收入 --
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你可以看到他目前的年收入 --
13:02
this is the percentage百分比 of his paycheck薪水 that he can take home today今天 --
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這是他今天可以帶回家的薪水百分比--
13:05
is quite相當 high, 91 percent百分,
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是相當高,91%,
13:07
but his retirement退休 income收入 is quite相當 low.
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但他退休後的收入是相當低。
13:09
He's going to retire退休 on 44 percent百分
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他在退休時將會得到
13:11
of what he earned while he was working加工.
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他工作時44%的收入。
13:14
If he saves節省 the maximum最大值 legal法律 amount,
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如果他儲蓄法律上允許的最大金額,
13:17
his retirement退休 income收入 goes up,
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他退休後的收入便上升,
13:19
but he's unhappy不快樂
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但他不快樂,
13:21
because now he has less money on the left-hand左手 side to spend today今天.
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因為現在他會有較少的錢在今天花。
13:25
Other conditions條件 show顯示 people the future未來 self.
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其他狀況展示人們未來的自我。
13:28
And from the future未來 self's自我的 point of view視圖, everything is in reverse相反.
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從未來自我的角度來看,一切都反向。
13:31
If you save保存 very little,
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如果儲蓄得很少,
13:33
the future未來 self is unhappy不快樂
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未來的自我以44%的收入,
13:35
living活的 on 44 percent百分 of the income收入.
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生活是不愉快的。
13:38
Whereas if the present當下 self saves節省 a lot,
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而如果目前的自我儲蓄了很多,
13:41
the future未來 self is delighted欣喜的,
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收入接近100%附近左右,
13:43
where the income收入 is close up near 100 percent百分.
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未來的自我會很高興。
13:46
To bring帶來 this to a wider更寬的 audience聽眾,
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要把這個更廣泛的受眾,
13:49
I've been working加工 with Hal哈爾 and Allianz安聯
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我一直在與Hal和Allianz
13:52
to create創建 something we call the behavioral行為的 time machine,
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創造一個我們稱之為行為時間機器的東西,
13:55
in which哪一個 you not only get to see yourself你自己 in the future未來,
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你不僅能看到自己的未來,
13:58
but you get to see anticipated預期 emotional情緒化 reactions反應
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你還能看到預期不同退休財富水平
14:01
to different不同 levels水平 of retirement退休 wealth財富.
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的情緒反應。
14:04
So for instance,
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例如,
14:06
here is somebody using運用 the tool工具.
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這裡是有人在使用這工具。
14:08
And just watch the facial面部 expressions表達式
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只看看當他
14:10
as they move移動 the slider滑塊.
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移動滑塊的面部表情。
14:12
The younger更年輕 face面對 gets得到 happier幸福 and happier幸福, saving保存 nothing.
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當儲蓄越少, 年輕的臉變得更快樂。
14:14
The older舊的 face面對 is miserable.
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老的臉是苦不堪言。
14:16
And slowly慢慢地, slowly慢慢地 we're bringing使 it up to a moderate中等 savings rate.
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慢慢地,我們將它移動到中等的儲蓄率。
14:18
And then it's a high savings rate.
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然後,一個高儲蓄率。
14:20
The younger更年輕 face面對 is getting得到 unhappy不快樂.
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年輕的臉是越來越不滿。
14:22
The older舊的 face面對 is quite相當 pleased滿意
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年長的臉對決定是
14:24
with the decision決定.
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相當滿意。
14:27
We're going to see if this has an effect影響 on what people do.
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我們要看看這會否有影響人的效果。
14:29
And what's nice不錯 about it
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它的好處是,
14:31
is it's not something that biasing偏置 people actually其實,
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因為實際上不是偏置人,
14:34
because as one face面對 smiles笑容,
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以當一面在笑,
14:36
the other face面對 frowns皺眉.
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另一面便皺眉。
14:38
It's not telling告訴 you which哪一個 way to put the slider滑塊,
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它不會告訴你應該如何移動滑塊,
14:40
it's just reminding提醒 you that you are
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它只是提醒你,
14:43
connected連接的 to and legally法律上 tied to
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你是跟未來的自我
14:45
this future未來 self.
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息息相關。
14:47
Your decisions決定 today今天 are going to determine確定 its well-being福利.
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你今天的決定是以確定其福祉。
14:50
And that's something that's easy簡單 to forget忘記.
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而這是很容易忘記的東西。
14:53
This use of virtual虛擬 reality現實
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使用這種虛擬現實,
14:56
is not just good for making製造 people look older舊的.
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不僅僅是讓人們看看年邁的面貌。
14:58
There are programs程式 you can get
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還有其他程式讓你可以
15:00
to see how people might威力 look
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看到人們如果吸煙,
15:02
if they smoke抽煙, if they get too much exposure曝光 to the sun太陽,
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如果他們過多地暴露在陽光下的結果,
15:05
if they gain獲得 weight重量 and so on.
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或如果他們體重增加,等等。
15:07
And what's good is,
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好處是,
15:09
unlike不像 in the experiments實驗 that Hal哈爾 and myself ran with Russ拉斯 Smith工匠,
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和我,Hal, 和Russ Smith在實驗不同的是,
15:12
you don't have to program程序 these by yourself你自己
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你不用自己手動編這些程式
15:14
in order訂購 to see the virtual虛擬 reality現實.
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才能看到虛擬的現實。
15:17
There are applications應用 you can get on smartphones智能手機 for just a few少數 dollars美元
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只是幾元錢一個,你便可以在智能手機上
15:20
that do the same相同 thing.
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做到同樣的事情。
15:22
This is actually其實 a picture圖片 of Hal哈爾, my coauthor合著者.
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這圖片實際上是Hal,我的合著者。
15:24
You might威力 recognize認識 him from the previous以前 demos演示.
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你可能從以前的演示中認出他。
15:27
And just for kicks we ran his picture圖片
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我們只是玩玩着, 把他的照片
15:30
through通過 the balding禿頭, aging老化 and weight重量 gain獲得 software軟件
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輸入禿頂,衰老和體重增加的軟件,
15:33
to see how he would look.
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看看他會變成怎樣。
15:35
Hal哈爾 is here, so I think we owe it to him as well as yourself你自己
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Hal是在這裡,所以我覺得我們應該為尊重他
15:38
to disabuse省悟 you of that last image圖片.
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而毀滅最後的圖片。
15:42
And I'll close it there.
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而我以此終結。
15:44
On behalf代表 of Hal哈爾 and myself,
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代表Hal和我本人,
15:46
I wish希望 all the best最好 to your present當下 and future未來 selves自我.
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我祝愿你現在和未來的自我都美好。
15:48
Thank you.
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謝謝。
15:50
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Ana Choi
Reviewed by Ann Lee

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Goldstein - Behavioral economist
Daniel Goldstein studies how we make decisions about our financial selves -- both now and in the future,

Why you should listen

Daniel Goldstein studies decision-making -- especially how humans make economic and social decisions over the course of our lives, and how we can give ourselves the right incentives, reminders, and rules of thumb to make long-term smart choices rather than short-term fun choices. He runs the blog Decision Science News. Dan is Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research, a former professor at London Business School, and member of the academic advisory board of the Behavioural Insights Team in the UK (aka the Nudge Unit). In 2015, he became President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, the largest academic society in Behavioral Economics.

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com