TEDSalon Berlin 2014
Hans and Ola Rosling: How not to be ignorant about the world
漢斯•羅斯林和奧拉•羅斯林: 如何更瞭解我們的世界
Filmed:
Readability: 3.3
5,377,171 views
你有多瞭解世界？漢斯‧羅斯林以他有名的世界人口、健康與收入狀況的資料圖，顯示出從統計上來看，你很有可能在認為明白的事情上搞錯了。和他的聽眾們一起玩玩小測驗，然後，從漢斯的兒子奧拉那裡學習如何快速擺脫無知的四種方法。
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bioOla Rosling - Director of the Gapminder Foundation
Ola Rosling is the director and co-founder of the Gapminder Foundation. Previously, he was the Google Public Data product manager. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bioOla Rosling - Director of the Gapminder Foundation
Ola Rosling is the director and co-founder of the Gapminder Foundation. Previously, he was the Google Public Data product manager. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you
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我要問大家
00:15
three multiple choice questions.
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三個選擇題。
00:16
Use this device. Use this device to answer.
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用這個答題裝置來回答。
00:20
The first question is, how did the number
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第一個問題是，
每年因為自然災害
00:22
of deaths per year
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而造成的死亡人數
00:24
from natural disaster,
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00:26
how did that change during the last century?
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在過去這個世紀中出現怎樣的變化？
00:28
Did it more than double,
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是翻倍了，
00:30
did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,
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還是總體上維持著一致的水準，
00:32
or did it decrease to less than half?
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抑或是減少了一半以上？
00:35
Please answer A, B or C.
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請回答 A，B，或 C。
00:37
I see lots of answers. This is much
faster than I do it at universities.
faster than I do it at universities.
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很多人作答了。
這比在大學裡快多了。
這比在大學裡快多了。
00:41
They are so slow. They keep
thinking, thinking, thinking.
thinking, thinking, thinking.
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大學生就是想太多，答題很慢。
00:44
Oh, very, very good.
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喔，非常好。
00:46
And we go to the next question.
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我們接著看下一題。
00:48
So how long did women 30 years old
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在全球範圍內，年齡 30 歲的女性
00:51
in the world go to school:
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平均就學的時間有多長？
00:53
seven years, five years or three years?
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7 年，5 年，還是 3 年？
00:55
A, B or C? Please answer.
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A，B 或 C？請作答。
01:02
And we go to the next question.
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接下來的問題是：
01:04
In the last 20 years, how did the percentage
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最近 20 年，
世界上生活在赤貧中的人口比例
01:08
of people in the world
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01:09
who live in extreme poverty change?
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有怎樣的變化？
01:12
Extreme poverty — not having
enough food for the day.
enough food for the day.
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赤貧就是每天無法獲得足夠食物。
01:14
Did it almost double,
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是幾乎翻倍，
01:16
did it remain more or less the same,
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還是大致維持一致水準，
01:18
or did it halve?
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抑或是減少了一半？
01:19
A, B or C?
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A，B 或 C？
01:23
Now, answers.
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現在，公佈答案。
01:26
You see,
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你們看，
01:28
deaths from natural disasters in the world,
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每年因自然災害致死的人數，
01:29
you can see it from this graph here,
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你們可從這裡的圖表得知，
01:31
from 1900 to 2000.
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世界上自 1900 年至 2000 年的數據。
01:34
In 1900, there was about half a million people
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在 1900 年，大約有 50 萬人
01:37
who died every year from natural disasters:
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因為自然災害而死亡，
01:39
floods, earthquakes, volcanic
eruption, whatever, droughts.
eruption, whatever, droughts.
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洪水、地震、火山爆發、旱災等。
01:44
And then, how did that change?
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而之後這個數據是如何變化呢？
01:47
Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.
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Gapminder 機構在瑞典進行調查。
01:51
This is how they answered.
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他們是這樣回答的，
01:52
The Swedish public answered like this:
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瑞典民眾這樣回答的：
01:54
Fifty percent thought it had doubled,
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半數的人認為倍增，
01:56
38 percent said it's more or less the same,
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38% 的人認為不變，
01:58
12 said it had halved.
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12% 的人認為減半。
02:00
This is the best data from the disaster researchers,
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這是從災害研究者得到的最佳資料，
02:03
and it goes up and down,
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顯示出數字升高又降低，
02:06
and it goes to the Second World War,
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然後是第二次世界大戰，
02:08
and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling
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戰後又開始持續降低，
02:12
and it's down to much less than half.
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並遠低於一半。
02:14
The world has been much, much more capable
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在數十年之間，這世界越來越能夠
02:16
as the decades go by
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02:18
to protect people from this, you know.
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保護人們免於自然災害致死。
02:20
So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.
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所以，僅 12％ 的瑞典民眾答對。
02:23
So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.
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那我就去動物園問黑猩猩。
02:26
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（笑聲）（掌聲）
02:39
The chimps don't watch the evening news,
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黑猩猩不看晚間新聞，
02:43
so the chimps,
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所以，黑猩猩是亂猜的。
02:44
they choose by random, so the
Swedes answer worse than random.
Swedes answer worse than random.
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也就是說，瑞典人回答得
比亂猜還糟糕。
比亂猜還糟糕。
02:48
Now how did you do?
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現在我們來看各位答得如何？
02:51
That's you.
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這就是各位回答的情況。
02:54
You were beaten by the chimps.
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黑猩猩還打敗你們了吧。
02:56
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:58
But it was close.
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但是很接近了。
03:01
You were three times better than the Swedes,
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各位比瑞典人強三倍，
03:05
but that's not enough.
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但是那還不夠。
03:06
You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.
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你們不該和瑞典人相提並論。
03:08
You must have higher ambitions in the world.
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各位在世間應該要有更高的抱負。
03:12
Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.
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來看看下一題的答案：女性就學。
03:15
Here, you can see men went eight years.
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各位在此可以看到，
男性平均就學時長為8年。
男性平均就學時長為8年。
03:17
How long did women go to school?
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那女性平均就學時間呢？
03:19
Well, we asked the Swedes like this,
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瑞典人是這麼回答的，
03:22
and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?
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而那給了各位一點提示，不是嗎？
03:24
The right answer is probably the one
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正確的回答大概是這個，
03:26
the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it?
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就是最少瑞典人選的，對吧？
03:29
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:31
Let's see, let's see. Here we come.
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我們來看看吧。答案來囉。
03:33
Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.
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沒錯，女性就學時間幾乎趕上男性。
03:38
This is the U.S. public.
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這是美國大眾對這個問題的回答。
03:41
And this is you. Here you come.
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然後這是各位的。
03:45
Ooh.
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噢......
03:49
Well, congratulations, you're
twice as good as the Swedes,
twice as good as the Swedes,
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恭喜各位，你們的正確率
比瑞典人好上兩倍。
比瑞典人好上兩倍。
03:51
but you don't need me —
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但你們不需要我來......
03:53
So how come? I think it's like this,
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怎麼會這樣？我猜大概是因為
03:58
that everyone is aware that there are countries
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大家都知道有些國家、
04:01
and there are areas
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有些地方，
04:02
where girls have great difficulties.
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女孩子面臨著很艱鉅的阻礙。
04:04
They are stopped when they go to school,
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她們沒辦法上學，
04:06
and it's disgusting.
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而這讓人覺得可惡。
04:08
But in the majority of the world,
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而世上大多數人所居住的地方，
04:10
where most people in the world live,
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04:11
most countries, girls today go to school
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在大多數國家，
女孩子們現在去上學的時間，
女孩子們現在去上學的時間，
04:14
as long as boys, more or less.
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和男孩們相比或多或少是一樣長的。
04:17
That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved,
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但那並不表示性別平等已經實現，
04:19
not at all.
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完全不是。
04:21
They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,
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女性仍被難以忍受的限制束縛著，
04:26
but schooling is there in the world today.
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但是，當今世界中，
就學並非遙不可及。
就學並非遙不可及。
04:28
Now, we miss the majority.
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現在，我們遺漏了大多數情形。
04:32
When you answer, you answer
according to the worst places,
according to the worst places,
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各位回答時以最糟糕的情況為依據，
04:35
and there you are right, but you miss the majority.
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那並沒有什麼不對，
但你卻遺漏了大多數情形。
但你卻遺漏了大多數情形。
04:38
What about poverty?
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那關於貧窮的問題呢？
04:40
Well, it's very clear that poverty here
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這裡清楚地顯示，貧窮的情況
04:42
was almost halved,
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幾乎已經減半，
04:44
and in U.S., when we asked the public,
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而在美國，當我們詢問大眾時，
04:46
only five percent got it right.
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只有 5％ 的人答對。
04:50
And you?
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而各位呢？
04:53
Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.
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啊，各位幾乎和黑猩猩一樣優秀。
04:57
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（笑聲）（掌聲）
04:59
That little, just a few of you!
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就差那麼一點點啊！
05:05
There must be preconceived ideas, you know.
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先入為主的想法必定存在。
05:08
And many in the rich countries,
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而在富裕國家中的多數人，
05:10
they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.
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他們認為我們永遠無法終結赤貧。
05:14
Of course they think so,
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他們當然這麼想，
05:15
because they don't even know what has happened.
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因為他們不瞭解實際的情況。
05:18
The first thing to think about the future
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思考未來的首要之務，
05:21
is to know about the present.
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是對於現況的瞭解。
05:23
These questions were a few of the first ones
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這些是“無知項目”的前導階段中
最開始提出的問題裡的一小部分，
最開始提出的問題裡的一小部分，
05:26
in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project
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05:29
in Gapminder Foundation that we run,
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這個項目由我們所營運的
Gapminder 基金會發起，
Gapminder 基金會發起，
05:32
and it was started, this project, last year
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而且是在去年發起的，
05:35
by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)
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由 Ola Rosling，我的老闆，
也是我兒子。
也是我兒子。
（笑聲）
他是創辦人之一及董事，
05:39
He's cofounder and director,
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05:41
and he wanted, Ola told me
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而他告訴我，他要的是
05:43
we have to be more systematic
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我們應該更有系統地
05:45
when we fight devastating ignorance.
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對抗災難性的無知。
05:47
So already the pilots reveal this,
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所以，前導的研究已經顯示出，
05:49
that so many in the public score worse than random,
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一般大眾正確回答的比例低於亂猜，
05:52
so we have to think about preconceived ideas,
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因此，我們應當反思先入為主的觀念。
05:54
and one of the main preconceived ideas
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而其中最主要的觀念之一，
05:57
is about world income distribution.
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是有關世界上的收入分配。
05:58
Look here. This is how it was in 1975.
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這是 1975 年時候的狀況。
06:02
It's the number of people on each income,
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這是每人每日所得的人數統計數據。
06:05
from one dollar a day —
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從每天一美元......
06:08
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
06:11
See, there was one hump here,
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看到了嗎，這裡有個峰值，
06:13
around one dollar a day,
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大約是每日所得一美元，
06:15
and then there was one hump here
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然後這裡有另一個峰值，
06:16
somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.
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大約介於每日所得
10 到 100 美元。
10 到 100 美元。
06:18
The world was two groups.
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這世界上有兩個主要族群，
06:20
It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,
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就像一只雙峰駱駝。
06:24
the poor ones and the rich ones,
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窮的一群，有錢的一群，
06:26
and there were fewer in between.
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少數介於兩者之間。
06:27
But look how this has changed:
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但看看這樣的情況是怎麼變化的。
06:29
As I go forward, what has changed,
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隨著時光流轉，產生的變化是：
06:31
the world population has grown,
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世界的人口增加，
06:33
and the humps start to merge.
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而兩個峰值開始合併。
06:36
The lower humps merged with the upper hump,
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低處的駝峰與高處的合而為一，
06:38
and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world
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而世界從雙峰駱駝變成了
06:41
with one hump only.
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只有單峰的駱駝。
06:44
The percent in poverty has decreased.
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貧窮人口的比例減少，
06:46
Still it's appalling
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但依舊令人覺得糟糕的，
06:47
that so many remain in extreme poverty.
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是許多人仍有這麼多人處於赤貧。
06:50
We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,
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我們大約仍有10億左右赤貧人口，
06:53
but that can be ended now.
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但那現在可以被終結了。
06:57
The challenge we have now
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我們目前的挑戰在於，
06:59
is to get away from that,
understand where the majority is,
understand where the majority is,
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擺脫赤貧，搞清楚大多數人的狀況，
07:02
and that is very clearly shown in this question.
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而那已經很清楚地顯現在問題中。
07:05
We asked, what is the percentage of the world's
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我們要問，世界上多少比例的一歲幼童
07:07
one-year-old children who have got those
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接種了像麻疹之類的基本疫苗，
07:09
basic vaccines against measles and other things
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07:11
that we have had for many years:
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在我們擁有疫苗這麼多年之後：
07:13
20, 50 or 80 percent?
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20％，50％ 或是 80％ ？
07:15
Now, this is what the U.S.
public and the Swedish answered.
public and the Swedish answered.
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這是美國和瑞典大眾的回答。
07:19
Look at the Swedish result:
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先看瑞典人的回答，
07:20
you know what the right answer is.
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這樣你就知道哪個答案才是對的。
07:22
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:26
Who the heck is a professor of
global health in that country?
global health in that country?
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到底那個國家的全球公衛教授是誰呀？
07:29
Well, it's me. It's me.
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欸，是我，是我。
07:31
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:33
It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.
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這真是非常難搞。
07:35
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
07:38
However, Ola's approach
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不過，Ola 用來量測
我們所知多少的方法
我們所知多少的方法
07:42
to really measure what we know made headlines,
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已經成為新聞頭條。
07:45
and CNN published these results on their web
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CNN 在網路上公布這些結果，
07:48
and they had the questions there, millions answered,
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還有問題，並有幾百萬人回答，
07:50
and I think there were about 2,000 comments,
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還有大約 2000 條評論，
07:54
and this was one of the comments.
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而這是其中一則評論。
07:56
"I bet no member of the media
passed the test," he said.
passed the test," he said.
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他說，「我敢賭沒有一家媒體
答對了這些問題。」
答對了這些問題。」
08:00
So Ola told me, "Take these devices.
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所以 Ola 告訴我，
「帶著這些答題裝置，
「帶著這些答題裝置，
08:02
You are invited to media conferences.
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你獲邀去參加記者會。
08:04
Give it to them and measure what the media know."
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把裝置發給媒體，
並測測他們所知多少。」
並測測他們所知多少。」
08:06
And ladies and gentlemen,
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各位女士先生們，
08:08
for the first time, the informal results
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在此首度揭露，
我們所得到非正式的結果，
我們所得到非正式的結果，
08:11
from a conference with U.S. media.
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在一次美國媒體記者會所蒐集。
08:15
And then, lately, from the European Union media.
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然後，最近在歐盟媒體記者會
所獲得的結果。
所獲得的結果。
08:20
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
08:21
You see, the problem is not that people
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你看，問題不在於人們
08:23
don't read and listen to the media.
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不去閱聽媒體。
08:25
The problem is that the
media doesn't know themselves.
media doesn't know themselves.
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問題在於媒體自己都不瞭解。
08:29
What shall we do about this, Ola?
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Ola ，我們該怎麼做呢？
08:31
Do we have any ideas?
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我們有什麼點子嗎？
08:32
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
08:44
Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,
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沒錯，我有個點子。但首先，
08:47
I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.
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我對各位輸給黑猩猩感到遺憾。
08:51
Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you
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好在我有辦法安慰各位，
08:54
by showing why it was not your fault, actually.
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闡明這實際上不是各位的錯。
08:58
Then, I will equip you with some tricks
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然後我會為各位提供一些小技巧，
09:00
for beating the chimps in the future.
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讓各位未來能贏過黑猩猩。
09:02
That's basically what I will do.
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那基本上是我接下來將要做的。
09:05
But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant,
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不過，首先，
來看看我們為何如此無知，
來看看我們為何如此無知，
09:07
and it all starts in this place.
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而一切都開始於此處。
09:09
It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.
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這是 Hudiksvall，
在北瑞典的一個城市。
在北瑞典的一個城市。
09:13
It's a neighborhood where I grew up,
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這是我長大的地方，
09:17
and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.
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而且這地方有個大問題，
09:20
Actually, it has exactly the same problem
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1986
實際上，相同的問題
09:22
which existed in all the neighborhoods
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也存在各位生長的故鄉，
09:25
where you grew up as well.
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09:26
It was not representative. Okay?
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這不具代表性。好嗎？
09:29
It gave me a very biased view
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它提供我一個非常偏差的觀點，
09:32
of how life is on this planet.
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來理解這星球上生活的面貌。
09:34
So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.
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所以，這是無知拼圖的第一塊。
09:37
We have a personal bias.
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我們有種個人的偏見。
09:38
We have all different experiences
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我們有各式各樣的經驗，
09:40
from communities and people we meet,
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從我們接觸的社群與人們處獲得，
09:42
and on top of this, we start school,
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在那基礎上，我們還上學，
09:45
and we add the next problem.
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這就帶來了下面的問題。
09:47
Well, I like schools,
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1144
我喜歡學校，
09:48
but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,
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5087
但老師們傾向於傳授過時的世界觀，
09:53
because they learned something
when they went to school,
when they went to school,
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因為，那是他們以前求學時學到的，
09:56
and now they describe this world to the students
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而現在，他們對學生描述這世界
09:58
without any bad intentions,
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他們並沒有不良的意圖，
10:00
and those books, of course, that are printed
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當然，那些印出來的書籍
10:03
are outdated in a world that changes.
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也已經跟不上世界的變化。
10:06
And there is really no practice
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而且，沒有一種方法
真正能夠維持教材的更新。
真正能夠維持教材的更新。
10:07
to keep the teaching material up to date.
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10:10
So that's what we are focusing on.
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於是，這成為我們關注的焦點。
10:12
So we have these outdated facts
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當我們把這些過時的事實，
10:14
added on top of our personal bias.
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傾注在個人的偏見上。
10:17
What happens next is news, okay?
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接下來就是新聞了，好嗎？
10:19
An excellent journalist knows how to pick
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一個出色的記者知道如何挑選
10:22
the story that will make headlines,
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造就頭條新聞的故事，
10:24
and people will read it because it's sensational.
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且人們會因為夠腥羶而去閱讀它。
10:27
Unusual events are more interesting, no?
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奇聞才比較有趣，不是嗎？
10:30
And they are exaggerated,
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1715
而它們被誇大，
10:32
and especially things we're afraid of.
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特別是我們會懼怕的事情。
10:36
A shark attack on a Swedish person
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一個瑞典人被鯊魚攻擊，
10:38
will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.
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肯定會在瑞典成為數週的頭條。
10:42
So these three skewed sources of information
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所以，這三種歪曲的資訊來源
10:46
were really hard to get away from.
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我們實在難以擺脫。
10:49
They kind of bombard us
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他們就像在對我們進行疲勞轟炸，
10:50
and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,
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3806
並讓我們充滿許多奇怪的想法，
10:54
and on top of it we put the very thing
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2737
我們在那之上放了人類的特有功能，
10:57
that makes us humans, our human intuition.
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我們人類的直覺。
11:02
It was good in evolution.
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這在物種進化中是件好事。
11:04
It helped us generalize
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1258
幫助我們歸納
11:06
and jump to conclusions very, very fast.
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並用很快的速度得到結論。
11:08
It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,
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那讓我們誇大我們害怕的，
11:12
and we seek causality where there is none,
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並讓我們無中生有地尋找出因果關係，
11:15
and we then get an illusion of confidence
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4937
然後得到一種自信的假像，
11:20
where we believe that we are the best car drivers,
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3006
在假像中相信自己是最佳駕駛員，
11:23
above the average.
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比其他人都好。
11:25
Everybody answered that question,
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1362
每個人對那個問題的回答都是，
11:26
"Yeah, I drive cars better."
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1269
「沒錯，我的駕駛技術比較好。」
11:27
Okay, this was good evolutionarily,
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好吧，這是正向進化的，
11:30
but now when it comes to the worldview,
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但當這變成世界觀，
11:32
it is the exact reason why it's upside down.
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就正好成為混亂的根源。
11:34
The trends that are increasing are instead falling,
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本來以為是增加的趨勢
反而是在下降，
反而是在下降，
11:37
and the other way around,
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有些則恰好相反。
11:39
and in this case, the chimps
use our intuition against us,
use our intuition against us,
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4000
而那樣的情況下，黑猩猩
用我們的直覺打敗了我們，
用我們的直覺打敗了我們，
11:43
and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.
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3440
而直覺變成我們的劣勢而不是優勢。
11:46
It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?
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2483
那本應是我們的優勢，不是嗎？
11:49
So how do we solve such problems?
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所以，我們該如何解決這樣的問題？
11:51
First, we need to measure it,
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1675
首先，我們必須要衡量問題，
11:53
and then we need to cure it.
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1402
然後我們需要加以解決。
11:54
So by measuring it we can understand
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藉由衡量問題，我們可以理解
11:57
what is the pattern of ignorance.
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無知的模式是怎樣的。
11:59
We started the pilot last year,
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1536
我們去年開始前導計畫，
12:01
and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter
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而現在我們很確定會遭遇
12:03
a lot of ignorance across the whole world,
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世界上許多無知的情況，
12:07
and the idea is really to
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3613
而方法就是真正地
12:10
scale it up to all domains
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1977
將規模擴及所有面向
12:12
or dimensions of global development,
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2548
或各種全球發展的角度，
12:15
such as climate, endangered species, human rights,
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4082
諸如氣候、瀕危物種、人權、
12:19
gender equality, energy, finance.
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3210
性別平等、能源、金融等等。
12:22
All different sectors have facts,
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2733
不同產業皆有其真相，
12:25
and there are organizations trying to spread
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1596
而不同的組織正試著散播
12:27
awareness about these facts.
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1926
對於這些真相的認知。
12:28
So I've started actually contacting some of them,
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3704
因此，我開始聯繫一些組織，
12:32
like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,
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3341
如世界自然基金會，國際特赦組織，
和聯合國兒童基金會，
和聯合國兒童基金會，
12:36
and asking them, what are your favorite facts
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2598
並問他們，「你們最關注的真相，
12:38
which you think the public doesn't know?
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1893
你們認為大眾所不知道的是什麼？」
12:40
Okay, I gather those facts.
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1578
我收集了那些真相。
12:42
Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.
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3535
想像一個長長的清單，
就說有 250 個好了。
就說有 250 個好了。
12:45
And then we poll the public
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1299
然後我們拿來測試一般民眾，
12:46
and see where they score worst.
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1937
看看哪個部分分數最低。
12:48
So we get a shorter list
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1346
於是我們得到一個比較短的清單，
12:50
with the terrible results,
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上面列舉了比較差的結果，
12:51
like some few examples from Hans,
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2549
就像 Hans 所舉的幾個例子，
12:53
and we have no problem finding these kinds
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1917
我們可以輕易地就能找到
這樣糟糕的結果。
這樣糟糕的結果。
12:55
of terrible results.
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1215
12:56
Okay, this little shortlist, what
are we going to do with it?
are we going to do with it?
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2845
好，我們該怎麼處理
這篩選出來的清單呢？
這篩選出來的清單呢？
12:59
Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,
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4126
我們把它轉化成“知識證書”，
13:03
a global knowledge certificate,
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1862
一份“全球知識證書”，
13:05
which you can use, if you're a large organization,
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2903
如果你是個大型組織，
則可以供你使用，
則可以供你使用，
13:08
a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,
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3755
例如一所學校、大學，或是新聞媒體，
13:12
to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.
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3628
用來證明你具備全球知識。
13:16
Basically meaning, we don't hire people
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基本上，這意味著我們不聘用
13:19
who score like chimpanzees.
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2270
得分和黑猩猩一樣高的人。
13:21
Of course you shouldn't.
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2360
各位當然不該像黑猩猩一樣。
13:23
So maybe 10 years from now,
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2271
所以，或許十年內，
13:25
if this project succeeds,
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如果計劃成功的話，
13:27
you will be sitting in an interview
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2248
那麼各位在工作面談中，
13:30
having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.
300
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4206
就得做這份全球知識的問卷。
13:34
So now we come to the practical tricks.
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3363
接下來，我們來談談實用的訣竅。
13:37
How are you going to succeed?
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各位要怎樣成功呢？
13:39
There is, of course, one way,
303
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3579
當然，其中一種方法，
13:43
which is to sit down late nights
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1737
就是在夜深人靜時坐下來，
13:44
and learn all the facts by heart
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2155
用心熟記這些知識，
13:47
by reading all these reports.
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1768
通過閱讀各種的研究報告。
13:48
That will never happen, actually.
307
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2012
實際上，沒人會這麼做。
13:50
Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.
308
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2709
連 Hans 都不覺得會有人如此。
13:53
People don't have that time.
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1373
人們沒有時間這麼做。
13:54
People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.
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3383
人們喜歡捷徑，而捷徑有這些：
13:58
We need to turn our intuition into strength again.
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2774
我們需要再次將直覺轉化為優勢。
14:01
We need to be able to generalize.
312
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1444
我們需要歸納。
14:02
So now I'm going to show you some tricks
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所以，我要教各位一些訣竅，
14:04
where the misconceptions are turned around
314
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2550
可以把誤解予以扭轉，
14:07
into rules of thumb.
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3208
成為一套經驗法則。
14:10
Let's start with the first misconception.
316
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2014
讓我們從第一種錯誤觀念開始。
14:12
This is very widespread.
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1637
這是種很普遍的錯誤觀念。
14:14
Everything is getting worse.
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1866
事情會每況愈下。
14:15
You heard it. You thought it yourself.
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3270
你聽過。你自己也這麼想過。
14:19
The other way to think is, most things improve.
320
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3029
另一種思考的方向是，
多數事情都會好轉。
多數事情都會好轉。
14:22
So you're sitting with a question in front of you
321
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2136
所以，當各位坐在那裡答題
14:24
and you're unsure. You should guess "improve."
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3233
卻不確定該如何回答，
那你就應該要猜「變好」。
那你就應該要猜「變好」。
14:27
Okay? Don't go for the worse.
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2984
可以嗎？不要往壞的方向猜。
14:30
That will help you score better on our tests.
324
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2363
這會幫助各位在測驗中得到更高分。
14:32
(Applause)
325
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1216
（鼓掌）
14:34
That was the first one.
326
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4226
那是第一項訣竅。
14:38
There are rich and poor
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1759
世上有富人與窮人，
14:40
and the gap is increasing.
328
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1466
而貧富差距正在擴大。
14:41
It's a terrible inequality.
329
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1655
這是種可惱的不平等。
14:43
Yeah, it's an unequal world,
330
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2201
是啊，這是個不公平的世界，
14:45
but when you look at the data, it's one hump.
331
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2325
但當你檢視資料，卻呈現出單峰分布。
14:47
Okay? If you feel unsure,
332
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1854
好嗎？如果你不確定，
14:49
go for "the most people are in the middle."
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就選「多數人都在中間」。
14:52
That's going to help you get the answer right.
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這可以幫助各位答題正確。
14:54
Now, the next preconceived idea is
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另一個先入為主的觀念是，
14:58
first countries and people need to be very, very rich
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國家與人民必先富裕，
15:01
to get the social development
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然後社會才能進步，
15:04
like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.
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正如女性就學及對自然災害的準備。
15:07
No, no, no. That's wrong.
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不對，那是錯誤的觀念。
15:09
Look: that huge hump in the middle
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看，那些處在中間一大片單峰的地區
15:11
already have girls in school.
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已經解決了女性就學的問題。
15:13
So if you are unsure, go for the
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所以，如果各位不確定，
就選擇「多數人已擁有該項，」
15:16
"the majority already have this,"
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15:17
like electricity and girls in
school, these kinds of things.
school, these kinds of things.
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比如電力供應和女性就學之類的。
15:20
They're only rules of thumb,
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這些只是經驗法則，
15:22
so of course they don't apply to everything,
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並不必然適用於所有事物，
15:25
but this is how you can generalize.
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但這是各位可以進行歸納的方式。
15:26
Let's look at the last one.
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最後一個訣竅。
15:28
If something, yes, this is a good one,
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如果某件事...... 好，這個不錯。
15:32
sharks are dangerous.
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鯊魚很危險。
15:34
No — well, yes, but they are not so important
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不對哦..... 好吧，它們是危險的，
但它們在全球的統計上並不顯著，
15:38
in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.
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這是我想表達的。
15:41
I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.
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實際上，我非常害怕鯊魚。
15:44
So as soon as I see a question
about things I'm afraid of,
about things I'm afraid of,
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所以，一旦遇到我所害怕的議題，
15:46
which might be earthquakes, other religions,
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像是地震，其他的宗教，
15:49
maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks,
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我或許害怕恐怖份子或鯊魚，
15:52
anything that makes me feel,
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任何讓我覺得，
15:54
assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.
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認為你們會加以誇大的問題。
15:56
That's a rule of thumb.
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那是種經驗法則。
15:58
Of course there are dangerous
things that are also great.
things that are also great.
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當然啦，某些危險的事也是很贊的。
16:00
Sharks kill very, very few.
That's how you should think.
That's how you should think.
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鯊魚獵殺人數很少。那是各位該想到的。
16:04
With these four rules of thumb,
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以這四條經驗法則，
16:07
you could probably answer better than the chimps,
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各位應該可以答得比黑猩猩好，
16:11
because the chimps cannot do this.
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因為黑猩猩無法做到。
16:13
They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.
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他們無法歸納出這種法則。
16:15
And hopefully we can turn your world around
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希望我們可以扭轉各位的世界，
16:19
and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?
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並且讓大家打敗黑猩猩，好嗎？
16:22
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
16:31
That's a systematic approach.
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那是個系統性的方法。
16:33
Now the question, is this important?
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現在問題在於，這重要嗎？
16:35
Yeah, it's important to understand poverty,
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是，重要的是瞭解貧窮，
16:38
extreme poverty and how to fight it,
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3247
赤貧與如何對抗貧窮問題，
16:41
and how to bring girls in school.
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還有如何讓女性就學。
16:43
When we realize that actually it's
succeeding, we can understand it.
succeeding, we can understand it.
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當我們明白實際上正在取得成功，
我們就能瞭解它。
我們就能瞭解它。
16:48
But is it important for everyone else
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但對於那些極端富裕的人們，
這是否重要呢？
這是否重要呢？
16:49
who cares about the rich end of this scale?
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16:52
I would say yes, extremely important,
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我會說，是的，極端重要，
16:54
for the same reason.
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1509
基於同一種理由。
16:55
If you have a fact-based worldview of today,
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若你具備以事實為基礎的世界觀，
16:59
you might have a chance to understand
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你或許有機會可以瞭解，
17:00
what's coming next in the future.
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接下來會發生什麼。
17:02
We're going back to these two humps in 1975.
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我們回到 1975 年這兩個高峰。
17:04
That's when I was born,
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那是我剛出生的時候，
17:06
and I selected the West.
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3019
然後我選了西方，
17:09
That's the current EU countries and North America.
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就是現在的歐盟與北美。
17:13
Let's now see how the rest and the West compares
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3383
我們來看看西方與世界其他地方，
17:16
in terms of how rich you are.
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在富裕程度上的比較。
17:18
These are the people who can afford
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這些是可以負擔
17:21
to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.
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3578
搭飛機出國度假的人們。
17:24
In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived
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3308
在 1975 年，這些人當中
只有 30% 住在歐盟與北美以外。
只有 30% 住在歐盟與北美以外。
17:28
outside EU and North America.
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2967
17:30
But this has changed, okay?
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但這已經改變了，好嗎？
17:33
So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.
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所以，我們先看一下到目前，
直到2014年的轉變。
直到2014年的轉變。
17:38
Today it's 50/50.
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1388
現在的比例是 50/50。
17:39
The Western domination is over, as of today.
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3681
就當下而言，西方主導時期已經結束。
17:43
That's nice. So what's going to happen next?
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那很好，但接下來會怎樣？
17:45
Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?
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看到這巨峰嗎？看到它如何移動嗎？
17:48
I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF,
International Monetary Fund, website.
International Monetary Fund, website.
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6031
我做了個試驗。
我到國際貨幣基金的網站。
我到國際貨幣基金的網站。
17:54
They have a forecast for the next
five years of GDP per capita.
five years of GDP per capita.
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4163
他們針對未來五年
人均生產毛額進行了預測。
人均生產毛額進行了預測。
17:58
So I can use that to go five years into the future,
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3017
所以我可以用以探究五年後的未來，
18:01
assuming the income inequality
of each country is the same.
of each country is the same.
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1069778
3335
假設每個國家的
收入不均程度是相同的。
收入不均程度是相同的。
18:05
I did that, but I went even further.
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1927
但我更進一步，
18:07
I used those five years for the next 20 years
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3178
用那五年，以相同的速度，
來預測未來二十年，
來預測未來二十年，
18:10
with the same speed, just as an
experiment what might actually happen.
experiment what might actually happen.
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以實驗性地探究未來會發生什麼。
18:15
Let's move into the future.
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讓我們看看未來的情況。
18:16
In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.
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在 2020 年，西方以外有 57%，
18:22
In 2025, 63 percent.
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3036
2025 年，是63%。
18:25
2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is
outnumbered in the rich consumer market.
outnumbered in the rich consumer market.
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9237
2030 年，則是 68%。
而 2035 年，西方
在富人消費市場中完全被超越。
在富人消費市場中完全被超越。
這只是把人均生產毛額投射到未來。
18:34
These are just projections of
GDP per capita into the future.
GDP per capita into the future.
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3347
18:37
Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers
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2355
73% 的富裕消費人口，
18:40
are going to live outside North America and Europe.
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將住在北美與歐洲以外的地區。
18:43
So yes, I think it's a good idea for
a company to use this certificate
a company to use this certificate
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所以，我覺得這是個不錯的主意，
讓公司以此認證
讓公司以此認證
18:47
to make sure to make fact-
based decisions in the future.
based decisions in the future.
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3407
在未來會基於事實來制訂政策。
18:51
Thank you very much.
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非常謝謝各位。
18:52
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
19:00
Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!
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2052
感謝 Hans 和 Ola Rosling！
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
Ola Rosling - Director of the Gapminder Foundation
Ola Rosling is the director and co-founder of the Gapminder Foundation. Previously, he was the Google Public Data product manager.
Why you should listen
To fight devastating ignorance, we have to be more systematic about spreading facts that matter. In this talk with Hans Rosling, Ola teaches 4 ways to quickly learn more about the world of facts.
More profile about the speakerOla Rosling | Speaker | TED.com