TEDxNewYork
Ian Bremmer: How the US should use its superpower status
伊恩·佈雷默: 美國應如何運用其超級大國的地位
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對近幾代人而言，美國化與全球化基本是等同的。 但是美國對世界的看法——以及世界對美國的看法——正在改變。 在這場對國際政策進行快速導覽的演講中，伊恩·佈雷默（Ian Bremmer）與我們一起探討，當沒有國家或聯盟可以獨擔起領導全球的重責大任時，全球可能會遭遇到的挑戰。他並質問，美國是否已經做好用表率而非武力來引領世界的準備？
Ian Bremmer - Political theorist
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. Full bio
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
When you come to TEDx,
you always think about technology,
you always think about technology,
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各位來參加TED的演講，
心中想的大都是科技議題，
心中想的大都是科技議題，
00:15
the world changing,
becoming more innovative.
becoming more innovative.
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世界正在改變，變的更有創造力了。
00:17
You think about the driverless.
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各位可能會想到無人駕駛。
00:19
Everyone's talking
about driverless cars these days,
about driverless cars these days,
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現在每個人都在討論
無人駕駛汽車，
無人駕駛汽車，
00:22
and I love the concept
of a driverless car,
of a driverless car,
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我也喜歡無人駕駛汽車的概念，
00:26
but when I go in one, you know,
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但是說實話，當我走進去時，
00:29
I want it really slow,
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我真的希望它開慢一點，
00:32
I want access to the steering wheel
and the brake, just in case.
and the brake, just in case.
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我希望在發生意外的時候，
我能親自操控方向盤和刹車。
我能親自操控方向盤和刹車。
00:37
I don't know about you,
but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
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我不知道在座的各位是怎麼想的，
至少我還沒有準備好登上無人駕駛巴士。
至少我還沒有準備好登上無人駕駛巴士。
00:42
I am not ready for a driverless airplane.
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我也還沒有準備好
要乘坐無人駕駛的飛機。
要乘坐無人駕駛的飛機。
00:46
How about a driverless world?
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那麼，一個無人領導的世界會是怎樣呢？
00:50
And I ask you that
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我會這樣問的原因，
00:52
because we are increasingly in one.
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是因為我們都正逐漸融為一體。
00:56
It's not supposed to be that way.
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本來事情不應該是這樣的。
00:58
We're number one,
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我們是全球第一的國家，
01:00
the United States is large and in charge.
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我們美國喊水能結凍。
01:04
Americanization and globalization
for the last several generations
for the last several generations
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對於近年來的幾代人而言，
美國化和全球化基本上
談的都是同一件事，對吧？
談的都是同一件事，對吧？
01:09
have basically been the same thing.
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01:12
Right? Whether it's
the World Trade Organization
the World Trade Organization
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不論是WTO
01:15
or it's the IMF, the World Bank,
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亦或是IMF、世界銀行、
01:18
the Bretton Woods Accord on currency,
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布列敦森林的貨幣協定、
01:20
these were American institutions,
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它們都是美國的機構，
01:21
our values, our friends, our allies,
our money, our standards.
our money, our standards.
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我們的價值評斷、朋友、
同盟、貨幣、標準等
同盟、貨幣、標準等
01:26
That was the way the world worked.
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這就是這個世界運行的方式。
01:30
So it's sort of interesting,
if you want to look at how the US looks,
if you want to look at how the US looks,
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開玩笑說，如果你想知道
美國看起來是什麼樣的，
美國看起來是什麼樣的，
01:35
here it is.
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那麼這張圖就是了。
01:36
This is our view of how the world is run.
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這就是我們美國人
對於世界如何運轉的印象，
對於世界如何運轉的印象，
01:39
President Obama has got the red carpet,
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奧巴馬總統踩著紅地毯
01:42
he goes down Air Force One,
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走下空軍一號，
01:44
and it feels pretty good,
it feels pretty comfortable.
it feels pretty comfortable.
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這看起來很美妙，讓人感覺很舒服。
01:47
Well, I don't know how many of you
saw the China trip last week
saw the China trip last week
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我不知道你們有多少人看過
上周總統的中國之行
上周總統的中國之行
01:50
and the G20.
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與G20峰會的報導，
01:52
Oh my God. Right?
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天啊，
01:54
This is how we landed
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在中國舉辦的全球峰會，
01:56
for the most important meeting
of the world's leaders in China.
of the world's leaders in China.
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這麼重要的場合，
這就是我們總統著陸的方式？
這就是我們總統著陸的方式？
02:00
The National Security Advisor
was actually spewing expletives
was actually spewing expletives
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國家安全顧問站在柏油路面上
02:04
on the tarmac --
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直接開飆——
02:06
no red carpet,
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總統沒有紅地毯鋪路，
02:07
kind of left out the bottom of the plane
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就直接從飛機上下來，
02:10
along with all the media
and everybody else.
and everybody else.
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還和媒體還有其他人混在一起！
02:13
Later on in the G20,
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在稍後的G20會議中……
02:15
well, there's Obama.
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好吧，這是奧巴馬總統
02:18
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:19
Hi, George.
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「你好，喬治 」
02:21
Hi, Norman.
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「你好，諾曼 」
02:24
They look like they're
about to get into a cage match, right?
about to get into a cage match, right?
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他們看起好像馬上就要對幹了，是不是？
02:28
And they did. It was 90 minutes long,
and they talked about Syria.
and they talked about Syria.
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的確，他們花了90分鐘
討論敘利亞的問題。
討論敘利亞的問題。
02:31
That's what Putin wanted to talk about.
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這也是普京想要討論的，
02:33
He's increasingly calling the shots.
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他超想開戰的，
02:35
He's the one willing to do stuff there.
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他想成為歷史人物。
02:37
There's not a lot of mutual like or trust,
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實際上他們並不互相喜歡或信任，
02:41
but it's not as if the Americans
are telling him what to do.
are telling him what to do.
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也不是我們美國喜歡對他指手畫腳。
02:44
How about when the whole 20
are getting together?
are getting together?
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那麼全部20國在一起的時候
又是什麼樣的？
又是什麼樣的？
02:47
Surely, when the leaders are all onstage,
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誠然，當所有領導聚在一起
02:49
then the Americans
are pulling their weight.
are pulling their weight.
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美國人就會仔細觀察他們的互動了。
02:51
Uh-oh.
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噢哦
02:52
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:55
Xi Jinping seems fine.
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習近平看起來氣色不錯，
02:58
Angela Merkel has -- she always does --
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安格拉·默克爾還是老樣子，
03:00
that look, she always does that.
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她一直看起來就那樣。
03:03
But Putin is telling
Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
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但是普京正在跟土耳其總統
埃爾多安交頭接耳，
埃爾多安交頭接耳，
03:06
and Obama is like,
what's going on over there?
what's going on over there?
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奧巴馬看起來就像是在想，
他們兩個是不是準備要亂搞了？
他們兩個是不是準備要亂搞了？
03:11
You see. And the problem is
it's not a G20,
it's not a G20,
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你看，問題不在G20，
03:15
the problem is
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真正的問題是
03:16
it's a G-Zero world that we live in,
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我們生活在一個G0的世界中，
03:19
a world order where there is
no single country or alliance
no single country or alliance
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一個沒有任何一個單獨的國家或聯盟
03:23
that can meet the challenges
of global leadership.
of global leadership.
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可以擔起領導全球重任的世界。
03:27
The G20 doesn't work,
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G20並沒有什麼實際用處，
03:29
the G7, all of our friends,
that's history.
that's history.
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由我們的盟友組成的G7
也成為歷史了。
也成為歷史了。
03:34
So globalization is continuing.
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但全球化仍在不斷繼續，
03:36
Goods and services and people
and capital are moving across borders
and capital are moving across borders
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商品、服務、人員和資本
也在不斷跨境流動，
也在不斷跨境流動，
03:40
faster and faster than ever before,
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流動的越來越快，遠超從前，
03:42
but Americanization is not.
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但美國化並不是這樣。
03:45
So if I've convinced you of that,
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所以如果你也接受上述論點，
03:47
I want to do two things
with the rest of this talk.
with the rest of this talk.
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那麼我在剩下的
演講時間中做兩件事。
演講時間中做兩件事。
03:50
I want to talk
about the implications of that
about the implications of that
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一是我想和各位談談
03:53
for the whole world.
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各地全球化的進展。
03:55
I'll go around it.
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我會圍繞這個主題討論。
03:56
And then I want to talk about
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然後我會再進一步討論
03:58
what we think right here
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身處在美國及紐約的我們是怎麼想的。
04:01
in the United States and in New York.
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04:04
So why? What are the implications.
Why are we here?
Why are we here?
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為什麼？這又有什麼影響？
我們今天為什麼會卡在這裡？
我們今天為什麼會卡在這裡？
04:07
Well, we're here
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我們會卡在這裡，
04:09
because the United States,
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是因為美國
04:12
we spent two trillion dollars
on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
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花費兩萬億美元去打
伊拉克和阿富汗的戰爭，
伊拉克和阿富汗的戰爭，
04:16
that were failed.
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然後我們失敗了。
04:17
We don't want to do that anymore.
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我們再也不想做這樣的事情了，
04:19
We have large numbers
of middle and working classes
of middle and working classes
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我們有大量的中產和工人階級國民，
04:22
that feel like they've not benefited
from promises of globalization,
from promises of globalization,
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但他們並沒有感覺到承諾中的
全球化所帶來的好處。
全球化所帶來的好處。
04:26
so they don't want to see it particularly.
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尤其他們更不想再看到戰爭。
04:29
And we have an energy revolution
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同時我們還在進行能源革命，
04:32
where we don't need OPEC
or the Middle East the way we used to.
or the Middle East the way we used to.
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這使我們不再像往常那樣
依賴OPEC和中東的石油。
依賴OPEC和中東的石油。
04:35
We produce all that right here
in the United States.
in the United States.
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讓我們能自給自足。
04:38
So the Americans don't want
to be the global sheriff for security
to be the global sheriff for security
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所以美國不想
再做全球安全的護航者。
再做全球安全的護航者。
04:43
or the architect of global trade.
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或者國際貿易的設計師。
04:45
The Americans don't want to even be
the cheerleader of global values.
the cheerleader of global values.
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美國人甚至不想去當全球價值觀的宣導者。
04:49
Well, then you look to Europe,
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好吧，你再去看歐洲——
04:52
and the most important
alliance in the world
alliance in the world
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我們在大西洋對岸的，
04:54
has been the transatlantic relationship.
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最重要的盟友。
04:57
But it is now weaker than it has been
at any point since World War II,
at any point since World War II,
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它自二戰以來正每況愈下，危機頻發：
05:02
all of the crises,
the Brexit conversations,
the Brexit conversations,
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英國脫歐，
05:04
the hedging going on
between the French and the Russians,
between the French and the Russians,
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法俄衝突，
05:08
or the Germans and the Turks,
or the Brits and the Chinese.
or the Brits and the Chinese.
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還有德國-土耳其衝突和英中之間的不愉快。
05:13
China does want to do more leadership.
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中國的確想更進一步的領導全球，
05:14
They do, but only in the economic sphere,
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他們真的有在想，
但只想在經濟領域上。
但只想在經濟領域上。
05:18
and they want their own values,
standards, currency,
standards, currency,
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中國更加希望的是，
自己的價值觀、標準和貨幣，
自己的價值觀、標準和貨幣，
05:21
in competition with that of the US.
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能夠與美國競爭。
05:23
The Russians want to do more leadership.
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俄羅斯確實想更有領袖地位。
05:25
You see that in Ukraine,
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看看他們在烏克蘭
05:27
in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,
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以及波羅的海諸國還有中東所做的。
05:30
but not with the Americans.
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但那些都和美國無關，
05:31
They want their own preferences and order.
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他們想獨樹一幟，獨掌大權。
05:34
That's why we are where we are.
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這就是為什麼我們卡在這裡。
05:37
So what happens going forward?
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所以接下來世界會發生什麼？
05:40
Let's start easy,
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我們先從簡單的開始討論，
05:42
with the Middle East.
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就從中東開始吧。
05:45
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:48
You know, I left a little out,
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你們知道的，我只是點撥一下，
05:51
but you get the general idea.
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但你們會不約而同地想到中東的穩定問題。
05:54
Look, there are three reasons
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你看，有三個原因，
05:56
why the Middle East
has had stability such as it is. Right?
has had stability such as it is. Right?
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說明了中東過去
曾經穩定的原因，是不是？
曾經穩定的原因，是不是？
06:01
One is because there was
a willingness to provide
a willingness to provide
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一是他們當時願意，
06:05
some level of military security
by the US and allies.
by the US and allies.
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讓美國及其盟友
提供一定程度的軍事安全保障。
提供一定程度的軍事安全保障。
06:08
Number two, it was easy to take
a lot of cheap money out of the ground
a lot of cheap money out of the ground
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第二，中東遍地黃金，
06:13
because oil was expensive.
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因為石油曾相當昂貴。
06:15
And number three
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第三點：
06:16
was no matter how bad the leaders were,
the populations were relatively quiescent.
the populations were relatively quiescent.
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不論中東的領導人是多麼差勁，
當地人口數量卻相對穩定。
當地人口數量卻相對穩定。
06:21
They didn't have the ability,
and many didn't have the will
and many didn't have the will
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他們不能、也不想，
06:24
to really rise up against.
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互相敵對。
06:25
Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world,
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但，對於一個G0的世界，我可以說：
06:28
all three of those things
are increasingly not true,
are increasingly not true,
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這三個理由正逐漸失效。
06:32
and so failed states,
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所以失敗的國家、恐怖主義、
06:34
terrorism, refugees and the rest.
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難民還有其他事故開始出現。
06:37
Does the entire Middle East fall apart?
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然而整個中東四分五裂了麼？
06:39
No, the Kurds will do better,
and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
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並不，庫爾德人做得更好一些，
伊拉克、以色列、伊朗也會逐漸好起來。
伊拉克、以色列、伊朗也會逐漸好起來。
06:43
But generally speaking,
it's not a good look.
it's not a good look.
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但總體上說，中東依舊不是很好。
06:45
OK, how about this guy?
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好，那普京這傢伙如何呢？
06:49
He's playing a poor hand very well.
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他簡直一塌糊塗。
06:51
There's no question
he's hitting above his weight.
he's hitting above his weight.
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毫無疑問他好高騖遠。
06:54
But long term -- I didn't mean that.
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但長期——我不是有意要這麼說
06:57
But long term, long term,
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——從長期而言，
07:02
if you think that the Russians
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如果你認為俄羅斯是被
美國和歐盟所挑倖，
美國和歐盟所挑倖，
07:03
were antagonized by the US and Europe
expanding NATO right up to their borders
expanding NATO right up to their borders
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讓北約組織擴軍到
他們的國界附近。
他們的國界附近。
07:09
when we said they weren't going to,
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當時我們說他們不會這樣做。
07:11
and the EU encroaching them,
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且有歐盟在蠶食他們，
07:13
just wait until the Chinese
put hundreds of billions of dollars
put hundreds of billions of dollars
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只要等中國花數千億美元，
07:17
in every country around Russia
they thought they had influence in.
they thought they had influence in.
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投入到俄羅斯周邊
他們認為擁有影響力的國家，
他們認為擁有影響力的國家，
07:20
The Chinese are going to dominate it.
The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
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中國就能從中獲益
而俄羅斯只能撿剩下的。
而俄羅斯只能撿剩下的。
07:24
In a G-Zero world, this is going to be
a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
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在這個G0的世界中
普京先生未來10年會非常難熬。
普京先生未來10年會非常難熬。
07:33
It's not all bad. Right?
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這還是有點好的，對麼？
07:35
Asia actually looks a lot better.
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亞洲看起來更好一點，
07:38
There are real leaders across Asia,
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那裡有真正的領導者，
07:41
they have a lot of political stability.
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那邊有著相當的政治穩定，
07:43
They're there for a while.
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而且保持了一段時間。
07:44
Mr. Modi in India,
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印度的莫迪總理、
07:47
Mr. Abe, who is probably
about to get a third term written in
about to get a third term written in
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安倍晉三，可能要取得第三個任期的
日本自由民主黨黨魁、
日本自由民主黨黨魁、
07:51
in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan,
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07:53
of course Xi Jinping
who is consolidating enormous power,
who is consolidating enormous power,
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當然還有習近平——
他正在鞏固自己的權力，
他正在鞏固自己的權力，
07:56
the most powerful leader in China
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他是自毛澤東以來最具影響力的，
07:58
since Mao.
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中國領導人
08:00
Those are the three
most important economies in Asia.
most important economies in Asia.
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——他們領導著三個最重要的亞洲經濟體。
08:03
Now look, there are problems in Asia.
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但是現在，亞洲也沒法獨善其身：
08:05
We see the sparring
over the South China Sea.
over the South China Sea.
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我們可以看到南海衝突頻發，
08:08
We see that Kim Jong Un,
just in the last couple of days,
just in the last couple of days,
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可以看到北韓的金正日在幾天前
08:10
tested yet another nuclear weapon.
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又一次測試了新核武器。
08:14
But the leaders in Asia
do not feel the need
do not feel the need
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但是這些亞洲領導人認為，
他們無需發揮領導力
08:18
to wave the flag,
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去排除外部勢力，
08:19
to go xenophobic,
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他們坐視事態擴大。
08:21
to actually allow escalation
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08:24
of the geopolitical
and cross-border tensions.
and cross-border tensions.
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在面對跨國政治和邊境衝突的時候，
08:27
They want to focus on long-term
economic stability and growth.
economic stability and growth.
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他們著眼於長期經濟穩定與增長，
08:32
And that's what they're actually doing.
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而這也正是他們正在做的。
08:35
Let's turn to Europe.
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轉到歐洲。
08:38
Europe does look a little scared
in this environment.
in this environment.
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歐洲看起來似乎被
現在的國際環境嚇到了，
現在的國際環境嚇到了，
08:40
So much of what is happening
in the Middle East
in the Middle East
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所以那些發生在中東的事情，
08:43
is washing up quite literally
onto European shores.
onto European shores.
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毫不誇張地說，
已經波及到了歐洲邊境。
已經波及到了歐洲邊境。
08:48
You see Brexit and you see
the concerns of populism
the concerns of populism
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你們可以看到欧洲人對英國脫歐
還有民粹主義的關注
還有民粹主義的關注
08:51
across all of the European states.
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已經遍及了歐洲全境。
08:55
Let me tell you that over the long term,
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要我說，長期而言，
08:58
in a G-Zero world,
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在G0的世界中，
08:59
European expansion
will be seen to have gone too far.
will be seen to have gone too far.
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歐洲的擴張太快了。
09:04
Europe went right up to Russia,
went right down to the Middle East,
went right down to the Middle East,
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3776
歐洲現在十分靠近俄羅斯和中東，
09:08
and if the world were truly becoming
more flat and more Americanized,
more flat and more Americanized,
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如果這個世界真的變得
更加扁平化及美國化，
更加扁平化及美國化，
09:12
that would be less of a problem,
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這不值一提。
09:14
but in a G-Zero world,
those countries nearest Russia
those countries nearest Russia
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但對於G0的世界來說，
那些緊鄰俄羅斯和中東的國家，
09:17
and nearest the Middle East
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09:19
actually have different
economic capabilities,
economic capabilities,
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他們實際上與歐洲核心
有著不同的經濟量體、
有著不同的經濟量體、
09:22
different social stability
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不同的社會穩定因素、
09:24
and different political preferences
and systems than core Europe.
and systems than core Europe.
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以及不同的政治觀點與系統。
09:28
So Europe was able to truly expand
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所以歐盟確實可以在
G7的幫助下進行擴張，
G7的幫助下進行擴張，
09:31
under the G7,
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09:33
but under the G-Zero,
Europe will get smaller.
Europe will get smaller.
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2536
但是對於G0，歐洲會重新縮小。
09:36
Core Europe around Germany
and France and others
and France and others
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圍繞著德法的歐洲核心國家，
09:40
will still work, be functional,
stable, wealthy, integrated.
stable, wealthy, integrated.
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能依舊正常運行，
依舊穩定、富裕、互相補益。
依舊穩定、富裕、互相補益。
09:44
But the periphery,
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但那些周邊國家，
09:46
countries like Greece
and Turkey and others,
and Turkey and others,
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就像希臘、土耳其還有其他的一些，
09:48
will not look that good at all.
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2400
可能就會很糟糕了。
09:52
Latin America, a lot of populism,
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拉丁美洲，民粹主義的樂園，
09:55
made the economies not go so well.
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2016
經濟被搞得差強人意。
09:57
They had been more opposed
to the United States for decades.
to the United States for decades.
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幾十年間他們都對美國陽奉陰違，
10:00
Increasingly, they're coming back.
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但是現在，他們逐漸地靠攏回來了。
10:02
We see that in Argentina.
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我們可以看到阿根廷的變化、
10:04
We see it with the openness in Cuba.
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看到古巴的開放、
10:05
We will see it in Venezuela
when Maduro falls.
when Maduro falls.
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3216
看到委內瑞拉的馬杜羅下臺、
10:09
We will see it in Brazil
after the impeachment
after the impeachment
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看到發生在巴西的彈劾、
10:12
and when we finally see
a new legitimate president elected there.
a new legitimate president elected there.
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並最終看到一個新的合法總統當選。
10:16
The only place you see
that is moving in another direction
that is moving in another direction
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唯一頑固不化的地方，
10:19
is the unpopularity
of Mexican president Peña Nieto.
of Mexican president Peña Nieto.
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3576
是墨西哥，總統佩尼亞·尼托正失去民意。
10:23
There you could actually see
a slip away from the United States
a slip away from the United States
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在接下來的幾年中，
你將看到他們逐漸離了美國單幹。
你將看到他們逐漸離了美國單幹。
10:27
over the coming years.
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10:28
The US election matters a lot
on that one, too.
on that one, too.
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儘管美國大選
會對那裡會產生巨大的影響。
會對那裡會產生巨大的影響。
10:31
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:33
Africa, right?
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非洲，
10:35
A lot of people have said
it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.
it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.
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3216
很多人說接下來十年是非洲的十年。
10:38
In a G-Zero world,
it is absolutely an amazing time
it is absolutely an amazing time
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3536
在這個G0的世界中，
對少數非洲國家而言，
對少數非洲國家而言，
10:42
for a few African countries,
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這無疑會是一個令人驚奇的時代。
10:44
those governed well
with a lot of urbanization,
with a lot of urbanization,
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那些「少數國家」施政良好、
同時城市化進程較快，
同時城市化進程較快，
10:46
a lot of smart people,
women really getting into the workforce,
women really getting into the workforce,
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還有大量富有智慧的國民，
那裡婦女真正地有活可幹，
那裡婦女真正地有活可幹，
10:50
entrepreneurship taking off.
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1976
創業也蓬勃興起。
10:52
But for most of the countries in Africa,
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但對於大多數非洲國家，
10:55
it's going to be a lot more dicey:
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這無疑是場冒險：
10:56
extreme climate conditions,
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3016
他們要面對極端氣候環境、
10:59
radicalism both from Islam
and also Christianity,
and also Christianity,
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來自伊斯蘭教和基督教的激進主義、
11:04
very poor governance,
223
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1416
乏善可陳的統治、
11:05
borders you can't defend,
lots of forced migration.
lots of forced migration.
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無法禦敵於國門之外、
甚至大量強行吞併……
甚至大量強行吞併……
11:08
Those countries can fall off the map.
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那些國家可能從地圖上消失。
11:10
So you're really going to see
an extreme segregation going on
an extreme segregation going on
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所以你將會看到巨大的隔閡逐漸產生，
11:14
between the winners
and the losers across Africa.
and the losers across Africa.
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3336
它橫貫於非洲的勝利者與失敗者之間。
11:17
Finally, back to the United States.
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最後，讓我們回歸美國。
11:21
What do I think about us?
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2616
我們怎麼看自己的國家的？
11:24
Because there are a lot of upset people,
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2736
這裡有大量對政治失望的人，
11:27
not here at TEDx, I know,
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當然我知道不會出現在這個TEDx會場裡。
11:29
but in the United States, my God,
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但是他們遍佈美國，天啊！
11:31
after 15 months of campaigning,
we should be upset.
we should be upset.
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在15個月的競選長跑後
我們會變得失望，
我們會變得失望，
11:34
I understand that.
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682200
1976
我能理解這個心情。
11:36
But a lot of people are upset
because they say, "Washington's broken,
because they say, "Washington's broken,
235
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3256
但是很多人失望地說：
「華盛頓變差了」
「華盛頓變差了」
11:39
we don't trust the establishment,
we hate the media."
we hate the media."
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687480
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「我們不相信當權者」
「我們痛恨媒體」
「我們痛恨媒體」
11:42
Heck, even globalists like me
are taking it on the chin.
are taking it on the chin.
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哎，像我這樣的全球主義者，
都會把這些話掛在嘴邊。
11:46
Look, I do think we have to recognize,
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注意！我認為我們必須認清，
11:50
my fellow campers,
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2216
我們與和我們一同野營的國家夥伴們，
11:53
that when you are being
chased by the bear,
chased by the bear,
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當一同被某頭危機巨熊追逐著的時候，
11:57
in the global context,
you need not outrun the bear,
you need not outrun the bear,
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我們不需要跑過那頭巨熊，
12:01
you need to only outrun
your fellow campers.
your fellow campers.
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2616
只需要跑過那些夥伴，
讓他們成為被吃掉的就好了。
讓他們成為被吃掉的就好了。
12:04
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:07
Now, I just told you
244
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現在，我剛剛跟你們分析過，
12:09
about our fellow campers.
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我們那些夥伴的糟糕情況。
12:12
Right? And from that perspective,
246
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不是麼？從這個角度來看，
12:14
we look OK.
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722960
2016
我們做的超棒的。
12:17
A lot of people in that context say,
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2016
很多人在現在都說，
12:19
"Let's go dollar.
Let's go New York real estate.
Let's go New York real estate.
249
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3496
「我們去賺得美元」
「我們去紐約買房」
「我們去紐約買房」
12:22
Let's send our kids
to American universities."
to American universities."
250
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3056
「我們去把我們的孩子送進美國的大學」
12:25
You know, our neighbors are awesome:
251
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2136
眾所周知，我們的鄰居都很出色：
12:27
Canada, Mexico
and two big bodies of water.
and two big bodies of water.
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2856
加拿大，墨西哥，還有兩灘海水。
12:30
You know how much Turkey
would love to have neighbors like that?
would love to have neighbors like that?
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4376
你們知不知道土耳其做夢都想
擁有這樣的鄰居？
擁有這樣的鄰居？
12:35
Those are awesome neighbors.
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他們確實都是好鄰居！
12:38
Terrorism is a problem
in the United States.
in the United States.
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2296
在美國，恐怖主義確實是個問題，
12:40
God knows we know it here in New York.
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3296
任誰都知道身處紐約的我們知道這些。
12:44
But it's a much bigger problem
in Europe than the US.
in Europe than the US.
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2477
但對於歐洲而言這更是一個問題。
12:46
It's a much bigger problem
in the Middle East
in the Middle East
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2315
和歐洲比起來，
12:48
than it is in Europe.
259
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1576
中東問題更大了。
12:50
These are factors of large magnitude.
260
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2136
這其中有大尺度的因素，
12:52
We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees,
and we're complaining bitterly about it.
and we're complaining bitterly about it.
261
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4976
我們剛剛接受了一萬名敘利亞難民，
而且我們對此抱怨不斷。
而且我們對此抱怨不斷。
12:57
You know why?
Because they can't swim here.
Because they can't swim here.
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2816
知道為什麼麼？
因為他們沒有辦法游到這裡。
因為他們沒有辦法游到這裡。
13:00
Right? I mean, the Turks would love
to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
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對麼？我的意思是，土耳其會很樂於看見
他們只需接收一萬名難民，
他們只需接收一萬名難民，
13:05
The Jordanians,
the Germans, the Brits. Right?
the Germans, the Brits. Right?
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3296
對於約旦人、德國人
和英國人也是，不是麼？
和英國人也是，不是麼？
13:08
That's not the situation.
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1256
這不是假設，
13:09
That's the reality of the United States.
266
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3176
美國現在就是這樣。
13:13
Now, that sounds pretty good.
267
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2560
現在，一切似乎都很好。
13:16
Here's the challenge.
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2136
那麼接下來就輪到挑戰了。
13:18
In a G-Zero world, the way you lead
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在這個G0的世界中，
你要領導世界的方式，
你要領導世界的方式，
13:22
is by example.
270
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1576
就是要當楷模。
13:24
If we know we don't want to be
the global cop anymore,
the global cop anymore,
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3016
如果我們知道，我們不想再
擔任維持秩序的警察角色、
擔任維持秩序的警察角色、
13:27
if we know we're not going to be
the architect of global trade,
the architect of global trade,
272
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2953
不會再擔任全球貿易的建築師、
13:30
we're not going to be
the cheerleader of global values,
the cheerleader of global values,
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那我們會失去擔任價值觀引領者的角色。
13:32
we're not going to do it
the way we used to,
the way we used to,
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我們的行事作風要變一變了。
13:35
the 21st century is changing,
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21世紀正在改變，
13:36
we need to lead by example --
be so compelling
be so compelling
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我們需要擔起楷模
——那是多麼多令人嚮往。
——那是多麼多令人嚮往。
13:39
that all these other people
are going to still say,
are going to still say,
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其他國人都仍將引以為豪，
13:41
it's not just they're faster campers.
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並不是因為他們跑得快，
13:43
Even when the bear is not chasing us,
this is a good place to be.
this is a good place to be.
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即使巨熊不再追著我們，
這裡仍是個好地方，
這裡仍是個好地方，
13:46
We want to emulate them.
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我們想要效仿他們。
13:48
The election process this year
is not proving a good option
is not proving a good option
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今年的選舉，
並沒有一個很好的候選人，
並沒有一個很好的候選人，
13:54
for leading by example.
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能夠引領美國。
13:56
Hillary Clinton says
it's going to be like the '90s.
it's going to be like the '90s.
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希拉莉·克林頓說
美國會像90年代那樣，
美國會像90年代那樣，
13:59
We can still be
that cheerleader on values.
that cheerleader on values.
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我們依舊會是價值觀宣導者、
14:02
We can still be
the architect of global trade.
the architect of global trade.
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我們依舊會是是全球貿易的建築師、
14:04
We can still be the global sheriff.
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我們依舊會是世界警察。
14:06
And Donald Trump wants
to bring us back to the '30s.
to bring us back to the '30s.
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而川普想把我們帶回30年代，
14:10
He's saying, "Our way or the highway.
You don't like it, lump it." Right?
You don't like it, lump it." Right?
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他說：「我們的路或者高速公路。
你不高興也得忍耐」，不是麼？
你不高興也得忍耐」，不是麼？
14:14
Neither are recognizing
a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
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他們兩個都沒有認清
G0世界的根本真理，
G0世界的根本真理，
14:18
which is that even though
the US is not in decline,
the US is not in decline,
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這真理就算美國也沒有否認：
14:22
it is getting objectively harder
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客觀而言，一切正變得更加困難，
14:24
for the Americans to impose their will,
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不論是對外施加意志
14:27
even have great influence,
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還是在世界秩序上取得更大的影響力。
14:29
on the global order.
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14:32
Are we prepared to truly lead by example?
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我們真的有做好
用模範引領世界的準備了麼？
用模範引領世界的準備了麼？
14:36
What would we have to do to fix this
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我們應該如何去修正這些錯誤？
14:39
after November,
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在11月大選之後？
14:40
after the next president comes in?
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在新一任總統進入白宮之後？
14:42
Well, either we have to have
another crisis that forces us to respond.
another crisis that forces us to respond.
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我們必須面對另一個危機
來迫使我們作出反應。
來迫使我們作出反應。
14:47
A depression would do that.
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一場全民狂踩總統的大失望可以做到、
14:49
Another global financial
crisis could do this.
crisis could do this.
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或者再一次的全球金融危機也行、
14:51
God forbid, another 9/11 could do that.
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求上帝原諒，
再來一次九一一襲擊事件也可以。
再來一次九一一襲擊事件也可以。
14:53
Or, absent crisis,
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或者，如果沒有危機發生，
14:55
we need to see that the hollowing out,
the inequality, the challenges
the inequality, the challenges
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我們需要認清空洞化、
不平等以及新的挑戰
不平等以及新的挑戰
15:01
that are growing and growing
in the United States,
in the United States,
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正逐漸在美國生根發芽。
15:04
are themselves urgent enough
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我們有足夠的緊迫感嗎？
15:06
to force our leaders to change,
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足夠到迫使我們的領導人去改變。
15:08
and that we have those voices.
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民意的聲音可以迫使他們改變，
15:11
Through our cell phones, individually,
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透過我們每個人的電話，
15:13
we have those voices
to compel them to change.
to compel them to change.
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我們用自己的聲音
去強迫他們改變。
去強迫他們改變。
15:17
There is, of course, a third choice,
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當然，還有第三種選擇，
15:20
perhaps the most likely one,
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也是最有可能的選擇。
15:22
which is that we do
neither of those things,
neither of those things,
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而那個選擇就是
我們什麼都不做，
我們什麼都不做，
15:24
and in four years time you invite me back,
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四年後你們再度邀我過來，
15:27
and I will give this speech yet again.
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然後我再念一遍稿子。
15:30
Thank you very, very much.
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謝謝，非常感謝！
15:32
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
Translated by Hime IX
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Bremmer - Political theoristIan Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm.
Why you should listen
Dubbed a "rising guru" in the field of political risk by The Economist, Ian Bremmer teaches classes on the discipline as global research professor at New York University and is a foreign affairs columnist and editor at large for Time magazine. His latest book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, was published in May 2015.
Bremmer is credited with bringing the craft of political risk to financial markets. He created Wall Street's first global political risk index (GPRI), and he established political risk as an academic discipline. His definition of emerging markets -- "those countries where politics matter at least as much as economics for market outcomes" -- has become an industry standard. "G-Zero," his term for a global power vacuum in which no country is willing and able to set the international agenda, is widely accepted by policymakers and thought leaders.
Bremmer has published nine books including the national bestsellers Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World and The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? He is a regular columnist for the Financial Times and has written hundreds of articles for many leading publications. He appears regularly on CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg, CNN, the BBC and other networks.
Bremmer earned a PhD in political science from Stanford University in 1994 and was the youngest-ever national fellow at the Hoover Institution. In 2007, Bremmer was named a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum, where he is the founding chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk. He is the Harold J. Newman Distinguished Fellow in Geopolitics at the Asia Society Policy Institute and serves on the President's Council of the Near East Foundation, the Leadership Council for Concordia and the Board of Trustees of Intelligence Squared.
Bremmer grew up in Boston and currently lives in New York and Washington.
Ian Bremmer | Speaker | TED.com