ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, author
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake.

Why you should listen

In his book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Yuval Noah Harari explores the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the 21st century -- from overcoming death to creating artificial life. He maps the future and asks fundamental questions: Where do we go from here? How will we protect this fragile world from our own destructive powers? The book has sold four million copies since its publication in 2016.

Harari's previous book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, explores what made homo sapiens the most successful species on the planet. His answer: We are the only animal that can believe in things that exist purely in our imagination, such as gods, states, money, human rights, corporations and other fictions, and we have developed a unique ability to use these stories to unify and organize groups and ensure cooperation. Sapiens has sold eight million copies and been translated into more than 50 languages. Bill GatesMark Zuckerberg and President Barack Obama have recommended it as a must-read.

Harari lectures as a Professor of history at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he specializes in world history, medieval history and military history. His current research focuses on macro-historical questions: What is the relationship between history and biology? What is the essential difference between Homo sapiens and other animals? Is there justice in history? Does history have a direction? Did people become happier as history unfolded? Harari has written for newspapers such as The Guardian, Financial Times, the Times, Nature magazine and the Wall Street Journal.

Harari's new book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, will take the pulse of our current global climate, focusing on the biggest questions of the present moment: What is really happening right now? What are today’s greatest challenges and choices? What should we pay attention to? The book will be published in multiple languages in September 2018.

More profile about the speaker
Yuval Noah Harari | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com
TED Dialogues

Yuval Noah Harari: Nationalism vs. globalism: the new political divide

尤瓦爾 · 諾亞 · 哈拉瑞: 國家主義與全球主義:當今政治分界

Filmed:
2,979,417 views

我們怎樣解讀今天政治的爭端呢?在這場充滿卓見,內涵恢弘的交談中,歷史學家尤瓦爾 · 哈拉瑞(Yuval Harari)把時下的動盪,套入視野更廣闊之背景中,以透視不斷發生的科技衝擊,氣候變遷,和網路媒體──甚至涉及到人類的共我認知和價值。這是我們準備推出之專題 TED Dialogues 之首集,希望能對激劇惡化的政治對抗尋找出一個理性的回應。請抽空(只一小時)共同參與哈拉瑞與 TED 總監克里斯·安德森這場精彩對話。
- Historian, author
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake. Full bio - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: Hello你好.
Welcome歡迎 to this TEDTED Dialogues對話.
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克里斯安德森:大家好,
歡迎參與 TED Dialogues。
00:16
It's the first of a series系列
that's going to be doneDONE
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這是我們將播放一系列之首集,
00:20
in response響應 to the current當前
political政治 upheaval動盪.
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來回應現今的政治風暴。
我不知你如何想;
00:24
I don't know about you;
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但我是十分關注在本國
00:25
I've become成為 quite相當 concerned關心 about
the growing生長 divisiveness分歧 in this country國家
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和在世界各地日益分裂之社會。
00:29
and in the world世界.
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00:30
No one's那些 listening to each other. Right?
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大家都不能溝通,是不是?
絕對是。
00:33
They aren't.
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我想當今局勢確需一種另類交談,
00:34
I mean, it feels感覺 like we need
a different不同 kind of conversation會話,
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00:38
one that's based基於 on -- I don't know,
on reason原因, listening, on understanding理解,
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一種建立在──怎麼說呢,
在理性、聆聽、和諧意識上的,
00:44
on a broader更廣泛 context上下文.
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在一種更廣闊的視野上的。
00:46
That's at least最小 what we're going to try
in these TEDTED Dialogues對話,
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最起碼,這是我們在
這 TED Dialogues 希望嘗試的,
從今天首集開始。
00:49
starting開始 today今天.
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00:51
And we couldn't不能 have anyone任何人 with us
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我們不可能邀請到
更能使我興奮的啟航嘉賓。
00:53
who I'd be more excited興奮 to kick this off.
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00:56
This is a mind心神 right here that thinks
pretty漂亮 much like no one else其他
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這嘉賓的思路見解是獨一無二的,
01:00
on the planet行星, I would hasten to say.
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我指的是──以全球人類來說啊。
01:02
I'm serious嚴重.
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我是認真的。
(尤瓦爾笑笑)
01:03
(Yuval尤瓦 Noah諾亞 Harari哈拉里 laughs)
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我真是認真的。
01:04
I'm serious嚴重.
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他貫融歷史所用的概念,
01:05
He synthesizes綜合類 history歷史
with underlying底層 ideas思路
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其體大思精能使你目瞪口呆。
01:10
in a way that kind of takes
your breath呼吸 away.
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01:13
So, some of you will know
this book, "Sapiens智人."
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我猜你們知道這本書:
《人類大歷史》。
01:16
Has anyone任何人 here read "Sapiens智人"?
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有誰看過這本書?
01:18
(Applause掌聲)
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(鼓掌聲)
01:19
I mean, I could not put it down.
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真的,我一讀就放不下。
01:22
The way that he tells告訴 the story故事 of mankind人類
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他所用的那些大概念
來解說人類的故事,
01:26
through通過 big ideas思路 that really make you
think differently不同 --
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真的能讓你有脫胎換骨的想法──
01:30
it's kind of amazing驚人.
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實在震撼。
01:32
And here's這裡的 the follow-up跟進,
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這本書還有續集,
01:33
which哪一個 I think is being存在 published發表
in the US next下一個 week.
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就我所知,下星期就會在美國發行。
01:36
YNHYNH: Yeah, next下一個 week.
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尤:對,下星期。
01:37
CACA: "Homo智人 Deus殺出重圍."
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克:《人類大命運》。
01:38
Now, this is the history歷史
of the next下一個 hundred years年份.
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這書預卜人類未來百年,
01:42
I've had a chance機會 to read it.
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我有機會讀過它,
01:44
It's extremely非常 dramatic戲劇性,
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真的是非常精湛。
01:46
and I daresay敢說, for some people,
quite相當 alarming驚人.
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我敢說,對某些人,
或有出乎意料的顫慄,
這是本必讀的書。
01:51
It's a must-read必讀.
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01:52
And honestly老老實實, we couldn't不能 have
someone有人 better to help
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說真的,我們不可得更理想的人
來幫我們理解當今地球發生的事態。
01:58
make sense of what on Earth地球
is happening事件 in the world世界 right now.
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02:02
So a warm welcome歡迎, please,
to Yuval尤瓦 Noah諾亞 Harari哈拉里.
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請熱烈的歡迎:
尤瓦爾 · 諾亞 · 哈拉瑞先生
02:06
(Applause掌聲)
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(鼓掌聲)
02:14
It's great to be joined加盟 by our friends朋友
on FacebookFacebook的 and around the Web捲筒紙.
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我們很開心有臉書
和網路上的朋友參與。
02:18
Hello你好, FacebookFacebook的.
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臉書,你們好。
02:20
And all of you, as I start開始
asking questions問題 of Yuval尤瓦,
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在我發問尤瓦爾時,
大家也想想自己的問題,
02:24
come up with your own擁有 questions問題,
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02:25
and not necessarily一定 about
the political政治 scandal醜聞 du jour怨婦,
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不一定是關於今日熱門的政治醜聞,
02:28
but about the broader更廣泛 understanding理解
of: Where are we heading標題?
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而是些宏觀的主題:
我們人類的前景?
大家準備好了嗎?我們開始。
02:34
You ready準備? OK, we're going to go.
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尤瓦爾,時下今日:
02:36
So here we are, Yuval尤瓦:
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02:37
New York紐約 City, 2017,
there's a new president主席 in power功率,
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紐約市,2017 年,美國新總統上任,
02:41
and shock休克 waves波浪 rippling蕩漾 around the world世界.
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其震驚捲席全球,
02:44
What on Earth地球 is happening事件?
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到底發生了什麼事?
02:47
YNHYNH: I think the basic基本 thing that happened發生
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尤:我想基本上發生的
02:49
is that we have lost丟失 our story故事.
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是我們已失去了故事;
02:52
Humans人類 think in stories故事,
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人類以故事來思考,
02:54
and we try to make sense of the world世界
by telling告訴 stories故事.
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通過故事,我們試圖去理解這世界。
02:58
And for the last few少數 decades幾十年,
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在過去數十年中,
02:59
we had a very simple簡單
and very attractive有吸引力 story故事
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我們有個極簡單和極動聽的故事,
03:02
about what's happening事件 in the world世界.
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解釋世界發生的一切。
03:04
And the story故事 said that,
oh, what's happening事件 is
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這故事在說:看啊!正在發生的
03:07
that the economy經濟 is being存在 globalized全球化,
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是經濟邁向全球化,
03:10
politics政治 is being存在 liberalized放開,
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而政治也同步開放化,
03:12
and the combination組合 of the two
will create創建 paradise天堂 on Earth地球,
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這兩者將使地球變為世外桃源。
03:16
and we just need to keep on
globalizing全球化 the economy經濟
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只要我們不斷強化全球經濟,
03:19
and liberalizing開放 the political政治 system系統,
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同時把政治更自由化,
03:21
and everything will be wonderful精彩.
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一切就自然美妙了。
03:23
And 2016 is the moment時刻
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但在 2016 年那一刻,
03:26
when a very large segment分割,
even of the Western西 world世界,
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有非常大比例的人民,
包括西方國家的,
03:30
stopped停止 believing相信 in this story故事.
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不再相信這故事了。
03:32
For good or bad reasons原因 --
it doesn't matter.
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不管理由是好或是壞──
這不是關鍵,
03:34
People stopped停止 believing相信 in the story故事,
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大家不再相信這故事了。
03:36
and when you don't have a story故事,
you don't understand理解 what's happening事件.
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但當你失去了一個故事,
你就不能理解一切發生的事情。
克:我們心底一部分
是確信這故事是有效的。
03:41
CACA: Part部分 of you believes相信 that that story故事
was actually其實 a very effective有效 story故事.
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03:45
It worked工作.
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它是成功的。
03:46
YNHYNH: To some extent程度, yes.
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尤:就某種程度而言,是的。
03:47
According根據 to some measurements測量,
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依某些指標來看,
03:50
we are now in the best最好 time ever
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今天的人類確是活在
03:52
for humankind人類.
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最輝煌的時刻:
03:54
Today今天, for the first time in history歷史,
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今天,首次在歷史中,
03:56
more people die from eating too much
than from eating too little,
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人類死於飲食過量多於飲食缺乏,
04:00
which哪一個 is an amazing驚人 achievement成就.
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這可是個驚人的成就。
04:02
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
04:05
Also for the first time in history歷史,
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還有也是首次在歷史中,
04:07
more people die from old age年齡
than from infectious傳染病 diseases疾病,
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人類死於衰老的多於疾病感染。
04:11
and violence暴力 is also down.
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至於暴力,這也降低了。
04:14
For the first time in history歷史,
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首次在歷史中,
人類因自殺死亡的,
多於死於罪行或恐怖暴力
04:15
more people commit承諾 suicide自殺
than are killed殺害 by crime犯罪 and terrorism恐怖主義
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04:20
and war戰爭 put together一起.
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和戰爭之總和。
04:22
Statistically統計學, you are
your own擁有 worst最差 enemy敵人.
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依據統計上來說,
你是你最大的敵人;
04:27
At least最小, of all the people in the world世界,
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起碼,把全球人算起來,
04:29
you are most likely容易
to be killed殺害 by yourself你自己 --
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你是最有可能被自己殺害的。
04:32
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
04:33
which哪一個 is, again,
very good news新聞, compared相比 --
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這亦可算是很好的消息──
(笑聲)
04:36
(Laughter笑聲)
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04:38
compared相比 to the level水平 of violence暴力
that we saw in previous以前 eras時代.
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比起我們以往所看到的暴力程度。
04:42
CACA: But this process處理
of connecting the world世界
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克:但依這個方法聯繫世界,
04:44
ended結束 up with a large group of people
kind of feeling感覺 left out,
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結果很大的一群人感覺被遺棄了,
04:48
and they've他們已經 reacted反應.
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而作出反應,
04:50
And so we have this bombshell重磅炸彈
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所以我們遇上這炸彈,
04:52
that's sort分類 of ripping翻錄
through通過 the whole整個 system系統.
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其威力好像把整個系統撕裂了。
04:54
I mean, what do you make
of what's happened發生?
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我想知道,您是怎樣看這一切呢?
04:58
It feels感覺 like the old way
that people thought of politics政治,
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感覺以往人民的舊有習慣,
把政黨分析
05:01
the left-right左右 divide劃分,
has been blown up and replaced更換.
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為左右派已被炸毀及撤換了。
05:04
How should we think of this?
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我們該從何了解這事?
05:05
YNHYNH: Yeah, the old 20th-centuryTH-世紀
political政治 model模型 of left versus right
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尤:沒錯,過往二十世紀的
左右派系之政黨模式,
05:10
is now largely大部分 irrelevant不相干,
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到現在是毫無意義了。
05:12
and the real真實 divide劃分 today今天
is between之間 global全球 and national國民,
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而今天實質之分界是在
全球主義和國家主義,
05:16
global全球 or local本地.
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全球性或地緣性。
05:18
And you see it again all over the world世界
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而你能觀察到這是在全球,
05:21
that this is now the main主要 struggle鬥爭.
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正在進行中的掙扎。
05:23
We probably大概 need completely全然
new political政治 models楷模
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我猜我們是需要嶄新的政治模式,
05:26
and completely全然 new ways方法
of thinking思維 about politics政治.
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和全新的政治思維。
05:32
In essence本質, what you can say
is that we now have global全球 ecology生態,
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精簡的說,你可說現在
我們是有個全球生態環境,
05:38
we have a global全球 economy經濟
but we have national國民 politics政治,
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我們是有個全球經濟系統,
但卻只有國家性的政體,
05:42
and this doesn't work together一起.
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這不能互通。
05:43
This makes品牌 the political政治
system系統 ineffective不靈,
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亦使現有的政治系統不足了,
05:46
because it has no control控制
over the forces軍隊 that shape形狀 our life.
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因為它已無法駕馭
我們生活的支配因素了。
05:49
And you have basically基本上 two solutions解決方案
to this imbalance失調:
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而對這不平衡,你只有兩個選擇:
05:52
either de-globalize去Globalize的 the economy經濟
and turn it back into a national國民 economy經濟,
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一者是把這個經濟系統反全球化,
退回到國家經濟;
05:57
or globalize全球化 the political政治 system系統.
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二者是把政治系統全球化。
06:00
CACA: So some, I guess猜測
many許多 liberals自由主義者 out there
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克:我猜很多自由主義者
06:05
view視圖 Trump王牌 and his government政府
as kind of irredeemably不可挽回 bad,
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會覺得川普和他的政府
是無藥可救的,
06:12
just awful可怕 in every一切 way.
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在各方面都很糟糕。
06:14
Do you see any underlying底層 narrative敘述
or political政治 philosophy哲學 in there
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你能在它當中看到
任何內涵或政治觀念,
是值得我們去揣摩了解的嗎?
06:21
that is at least最小 worth價值 understanding理解?
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你如何去闡明這觀念?
06:23
How would you articulate說出 that philosophy哲學?
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是否全然只是一種國家主義嗎?
06:25
Is it just the philosophy哲學 of nationalism民族主義?
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06:28
YNHYNH: I think the underlying底層
feeling感覺 or idea理念
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尤:我想它的基本感覺或概念,
是這個政治體制當中,
某些部分是壞掉了。
06:33
is that the political政治 system系統 --
something is broken破碎 there.
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它已不再賦權給平民百姓了,
06:38
It doesn't empower授權
the ordinary普通 person anymore.
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06:41
It doesn't care關心 so much
about the ordinary普通 person anymore,
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它已漠視平民百姓了。
06:45
and I think this diagnosis診斷
of the political政治 disease疾病 is correct正確.
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我想這政治疾病之診斷是正確的,
06:50
With regard看待 to the answers答案,
I am far less certain某些.
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但對它救治的答案,
我就不敢肯定了。
06:53
I think what we are seeing眼看
is the immediate即時 human人的 reaction反應:
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我想我們看見的
是人之自然反射行為:
06:57
if something doesn't work, let's go back.
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如果有東西行不通了,就掉頭吧,
06:59
And you see it all over the world世界,
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你可看到全球都這樣。
07:01
that people, almost幾乎 nobody沒有人
in the political政治 system系統 today今天,
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全部人,幾乎沒有一位當今執政者
07:05
has any future-oriented面向未來 vision視力
of where humankind人類 is going.
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持有對人類未來走向的遠見。
07:10
Almost幾乎 everywhere到處,
you see retrograde退化 vision視力:
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差不多在所有地方,
你只看到懷舊思想:
07:13
"Let's make America美國 great again,"
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「讓美國重振雄風!」
07:15
like it was great -- I don't know --
in the '50s, in the '80s, sometime某時,
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像以前一樣偉大──我不知道──
像 50 年代,或 80年代,或其它。
07:18
let's go back there.
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咱們回到過去罷!
07:19
And you go to Russia俄國
a hundred years年份 after Lenin列寧,
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看看蘇聯,已是列寧時代百年後了,
07:24
Putin's普京 vision視力 for the future未來
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而普丁的未來夢想,
07:26
is basically基本上, ah, let's go back
to the Tsarist沙皇 empire帝國.
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基本上是,啊,
咱們回到沙皇帝國時代吧!
07:29
And in Israel以色列, where I come from,
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再說以色列,我的母國,
07:32
the hottest最熱 political政治 vision視力
of the present當下 is:
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當下最熱門的政治夢想是:
07:35
"Let's build建立 the temple寺廟 again."
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「我們重建猶太聖殿!」
07:37
So let's go back 2,000 years年份 backwards向後.
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好像我們不如回到兩千年前。
07:40
So people are thinking思維
sometime某時 in the past過去 we've我們已經 lost丟失 it,
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所以大家的思維是:
過去某時刻,我們迷失了。
07:45
and sometimes有時 in the past過去, it's like
you've lost丟失 your way in the city,
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過去某時刻,
把它當是你在都市迷了路,
07:48
and you say OK, let's go back
to the point where I felt secure安全
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你說:「好罷,我們回到
之前安全熟識的地方,
07:52
and start開始 again.
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再重新來過。」
07:53
I don't think this can work,
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我不相信這是可行的。
07:55
but a lot of people,
this is their gut腸道 instinct直覺.
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但很多人,這是他們之自然反應。
07:58
CACA: But why couldn't不能 it work?
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克:但為什麼不可行呢?
07:59
"America美國 First" is a very
appealing吸引人的 slogan口號 in many許多 ways方法.
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「美國第一」在多方面
是個很吸引的口號。
08:03
Patriotism愛國主義 is, in many許多 ways方法,
a very noble高貴 thing.
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愛國主義,在多方面是個崇高理想;
08:07
It's played發揮 a role角色
in promoting促進 cooperation合作
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它曾經被用來
團結很龐大數目的人。
08:10
among其中 large numbers數字 of people.
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08:11
Why couldn't不能 you have a world世界
organized有組織的 in countries國家,
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為什麼你不可把世界分成多國,
08:15
all of which哪一個 put themselves他們自己 first?
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而各國都以自利為先?
08:19
YNHYNH: For many許多 centuries百年,
even thousands數千 of years年份,
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尤:很多世紀來,甚至幾千年來,
08:22
patriotism愛國主義 worked工作 quite相當 well.
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愛國主義是蠻成功的。
08:25
Of course課程, it led to wars戰爭 an so forth向前,
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當然,它也引發戰爭等等,
08:27
but we shouldn't不能 focus焦點
too much on the bad.
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但我們不該太注視那些不好的,
08:30
There are also many許多,
many許多 positive things about patriotism愛國主義,
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愛國主義的確有很多很多正面好處,
08:33
and the ability能力 to have
a large number of people
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也能帶動很大群的人
08:37
care關心 about each other,
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去關懷照顧對方,
08:39
sympathize同情 with one another另一個,
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去體恤包容對方,
08:40
and come together一起 for collective集體 action行動.
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也團結合夥去聯合行動。
08:44
If you go back to the first nations國家,
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如果你看最初的國家,
08:46
so, thousands數千 of years年份 ago,
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就是數千年前,
08:48
the people who lived生活 along沿
the Yellow黃色 River in China中國 --
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住在中國黃河岸邊的居民──
08:52
it was many許多, many許多 different不同 tribes部落
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有很多很多不同的部落,
08:54
and they all depended依賴 on the river
for survival生存 and for prosperity繁榮,
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他們都依靠著黃河生存和造福,
08:58
but all of them also suffered遭遇
from periodical期刊 floods洪水
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但他們也遭受周期性水災,
09:03
and periodical期刊 droughts乾旱.
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和周期性旱災。
09:04
And no tribe部落 could really do
anything about it,
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但沒有任何部落能做些什麼,
09:07
because each of them controlled受控
just a tiny section部分 of the river.
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因為各部落只控制很小一段的河岸。
09:12
And then in a long
and complicated複雜 process處理,
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但經過一個長而複雜的過程,
09:14
the tribes部落 coalesced合併 together一起
to form形成 the Chinese中文 nation國家,
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部落合組成為中國這國家,
09:18
which哪一個 controlled受控 the entire整個 Yellow黃色 River
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有效控制了整條黃河,
09:21
and had the ability能力 to bring帶來
hundreds數以百計 of thousands數千 of people together一起
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同時也有能力啟動數十萬居民,
09:26
to build建立 dams水壩 and canals運河
and regulate調節 the river
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一起來建水壩和運河,
來疏導這河流,
09:31
and prevent避免 the worst最差 floods洪水 and droughts乾旱
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預防了最惡劣的洪水和大旱,
09:34
and raise提高 the level水平
of prosperity繁榮 for everybody每個人.
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提升了全人民的富裕水平:
09:37
And this worked工作 in many許多 places地方
around the world世界.
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而這模式在世界多地都成功實施了。
09:40
But in the 21stST century世紀,
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但是在二十一世紀,
09:43
technology技術 is changing改變 all that
in a fundamental基本的 way.
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科技在根本上改變了一切。
09:46
We are now living活的 -- all people
in the world世界 --
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我們現在──地球上所有的人──
09:49
are living活的 alongside並肩 the same相同 cyber網絡 river,
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都生活在同一條「網路大河」旁邊,
09:53
and no single nation國家 can regulate調節
this river by itself本身.
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而沒有一個國家能單獨調控這大河。
09:59
We are all living活的 together一起
on a single planet行星,
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我們全都一起活在一個地球上,
10:03
which哪一個 is threatened受威脅 by our own擁有 actions行動.
195
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但它受到我們行為的威脅,
10:05
And if you don't have some kind
of global全球 cooperation合作,
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所以如果你不能建立某些全球合作,
10:09
nationalism民族主義 is just not on the right level水平
to tackle滑車 the problems問題,
197
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國家主義不能解決這些問題,
10:15
whether是否 it's climate氣候 change更改
or whether是否 it's technological技術性 disruption瓦解.
198
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不管對氣候變化,或對科技的衝擊。
10:19
CACA: So it was a beautiful美麗 idea理念
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克:所以國家主義曾是個
美麗的概念,
10:21
in a world世界 where most of the action行動,
most of the issues問題,
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因為多數的事務,多數的議題
10:25
took place地點 on national國民 scale規模,
201
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都局限在國域之內。
10:28
but your argument論據 is that the issues問題
that matter most today今天
202
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但你的論點是,當今最重要的議題,
10:31
no longer take place地點 on a national國民 scale規模
but on a global全球 scale規模.
203
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已不發生在國家範疇內,
而是全球性的。
10:34
YNHYNH: Exactly究竟. All the major重大的 problems問題
of the world世界 today今天
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尤:正是這樣。
所有今天世界重大的問題
10:38
are global全球 in essence本質,
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都是環球性質的,
10:40
and they cannot不能 be solved解決了
206
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而這些都不可能被解決,
10:42
unless除非 through通過 some kind
of global全球 cooperation合作.
207
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除非在全球合作之某些前提下。
10:46
It's not just climate氣候 change更改,
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而這不僅是說氣候變化,
10:47
which哪一個 is, like, the most obvious明顯
example people give.
209
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這是人人最常舉的明顯例子,
10:51
I think more in terms條款
of technological技術性 disruption瓦解.
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我倒是更關注科技衝突:
10:54
If you think about, for example,
artificial人造 intelligence情報,
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比如說,你試想人工智慧
10:57
over the next下一個 20, 30 years年份
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在未來二十、三十年後,
11:00
pushing推動 hundreds數以百計 of millions百萬 of people
out of the job工作 market市場 --
213
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會驅使數百千萬工人失業──
11:04
this is a problem問題 on a global全球 level水平.
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這是一個全球性問題,
11:06
It will disrupt破壞 the economy經濟
of all the countries國家.
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這將會影響全球國家的經濟。
11:09
And similarly同樣, if you think
about, say, bioengineering生物工程
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同樣的,如果你想想,
比如生物工程,
11:13
and people being存在 afraid害怕 of conducting開展,
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有人會顧忌做這方面的實驗,
11:16
I don't know, genetic遺傳 engineering工程
research研究 in humans人類,
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我不知道,基因工程之人體實驗;
11:19
it won't慣於 help if just
a single country國家, let's say the US,
219
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如果只有一個國家,比如說美國,
11:24
outlaws不法分子 all genetic遺傳 experiments實驗 in humans人類,
220
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立法禁止一切基因工程之人體實驗,
11:27
but China中國 or North Korea韓國
continues繼續 to do it.
221
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但中國或北韓堅持繼續實驗,
11:31
So the US cannot不能 solve解決 it by itself本身,
222
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2740
那這情況並非美國單獨能決定的,
11:34
and very quickly很快, the pressure壓力 on the US
to do the same相同 will be immense巨大
223
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4883
美國也很快會遭受無比的壓力
要求進行同類的實驗,
11:39
because we are talking about
high-risk高風險, high-gain高增益 technologies技術.
224
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4890
因為這牽涉高風險、高利潤的科技。
11:44
If somebody else其他 is doing it,
I can't allow允許 myself to remain behind背後.
225
692235
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如果他人在做,
我絕不能讓自己落後。
11:48
The only way to have regulations法規,
effective有效 regulations法規,
226
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5688
如果要建立這方面的法令,
有效之法令,
11:54
on things like genetic遺傳 engineering工程,
227
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2093
涉及如基因工程之類的,
11:56
is to have global全球 regulations法規.
228
704796
2012
就只能是全球性的法令。
11:58
If you just have national國民 regulations法規,
nobody沒有人 would like to stay behind背後.
229
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5038
如果你只有國家條令,
沒人會喜歡落後的。
12:03
CACA: So this is really interesting有趣.
230
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2008
克:這個觀點很有意思。
12:05
It seems似乎 to me that this may可能 be one key
231
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1931
因為我覺得這就是一個契機,
12:07
to provoking發人深省 at least最小
a constructive建設性 conversation會話
232
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3472
來至少推動一個有建設性的交談,
12:11
between之間 the different不同 sides雙方 here,
233
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讓多方都在一起。
12:13
because I think everyone大家 can agree同意
that the start開始 point
234
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3142
因為我相信大家都會同意,
12:16
of a lot of the anger憤怒
that's propelled推進的 us to where we are
235
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2697
這麼多的怒氣演繹至今天的局勢,
12:18
is because of the legitimate合法
concerns關注 about job工作 loss失利.
236
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2748
都是起源於工人對失業之合理訴求。
12:21
Work is gone走了, a traditional傳統
way of life has gone走了,
237
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3641
工作沒了,傳統生活方式也沒了,
12:25
and it's no wonder奇蹟
that people are furious狂怒 about that.
238
733398
3375
不言而知工人必然是憤怒的;
12:28
And in general一般, they have blamed指責
globalism全球化, global全球 elites精英,
239
736797
4552
而普遍來說,工人都怪責
全球主義和全球菁英等,
12:33
for doing this to them
without asking their permission允許,
240
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2747
沒有先徵求工人的同意,
就要他們扛下來,
12:36
and that seems似乎 like
a legitimate合法 complaint抱怨.
241
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2095
這投訴也算合情合理的。
12:38
But what I hear you saying
is that -- so a key question is:
242
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3309
從我理解你所說的──
一個關鍵問題是:
12:41
What is the real真實 cause原因 of job工作 loss失利,
both now and going forward前鋒?
243
749596
5461
失業真正的原因是什麼呢,
在今天與未來?
12:47
To the extent程度 that it's about globalism全球化,
244
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2776
起碼在涉及到全球主義之部分,
12:49
then the right response響應,
yes, is to shut關閉 down borders國界
245
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那正當的回應,沒錯,
就是把國家邊境封鎖,
12:54
and keep people out
and change更改 trade貿易 agreements協議 and so forth向前.
246
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把外人拒絕,把貿易協議修改等等。
12:58
But you're saying, I think,
247
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但依我理解你說的,
12:59
that actually其實 the bigger cause原因 of job工作 loss失利
is not going to be that at all.
248
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4791
真正造成失業的更大原因不是這些,
13:04
It's going to originate起源
in technological技術性 questions問題,
249
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3714
而是源於科技有關的問題。
13:07
and we have no chance機會 of solving that
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所以對此,我們根本不可能解決它,
13:10
unless除非 we operate操作 as a connected連接的 world世界.
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2095
除非我們能全球牽手合作。
13:12
YNHYNH: Yeah, I think that,
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尤:對,我想是的。
13:13
I don't know about the present當下,
but looking to the future未來,
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現在暫且不會,但我推測未來,
13:16
it's not the Mexicans墨西哥人 or Chinese中文
who will take the jobs工作
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3077
並不是墨西哥人或中國人
13:20
from the people in Pennsylvania賓夕法尼亞,
255
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1567
會奪取賓夕法尼亞州人的工作,
13:21
it's the robots機器人 and algorithms算法.
256
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1743
而是機器人和電腦演算法,
13:23
So unless除非 you plan計劃 to build建立 a big wall
on the border邊境 of California加州 --
257
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4184
除非你計劃在加州州界
豎立個大圍牆──
13:27
(Laughter笑聲)
258
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1134
(笑聲)
13:28
the wall on the border邊境 with Mexico墨西哥
is going to be very ineffective不靈.
259
796752
3691
在墨西哥國界的圍牆是毫無用處的。
13:32
And I was struck來襲 when I watched看著
the debates辯論 before the election選舉,
260
800467
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當我聽美國選舉前的
辯論,我很驚訝:
13:38
I was struck來襲 that certainly當然 Trump王牌
did not even attempt嘗試 to frighten嚇唬 people
261
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5737
我驚訝為什麼川普
沒有嘗試恐嚇工人說:
13:44
by saying the robots機器人 will take your jobs工作.
262
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2576
「機械人會奪去工作」呢?
13:47
Now even if it's not true真正,
it doesn't matter.
263
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2299
其實就算這不是真的,但也不重要。
13:49
It could have been an extremely非常
effective有效 way of frightening可怕的 people --
264
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3518
這可以是恐嚇人民的極有效方法──
(笑聲)
13:53
(Laughter笑聲)
265
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1001
和刺激人民的:
13:54
and galvanizing鍍鋅 people:
266
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1161
「機械人會奪去你的工作!」
13:55
"The robots機器人 will take your jobs工作!"
267
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1609
但沒有競選人用這口號,
13:56
And nobody沒有人 used that line.
268
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1355
13:58
And it made製作 me afraid害怕,
269
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2692
這倒是使我害怕,
14:01
because it meant意味著
that no matter what happens發生
270
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4048
因為這顯示出不管
14:05
in universities高校 and laboratories實驗室,
271
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在大學和實驗室,
14:07
and there, there is already已經
an intense激烈 debate辯論 about it,
272
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2765
在那裡,這潛在危機
已經常被討論了,
14:10
but in the mainstream主流 political政治 system系統
and among其中 the general一般 public上市,
273
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4094
但在政界主流系統和大眾媒體中,
14:14
people are just unaware不知道
274
842152
2110
人民好像是毫不知情的,
14:16
that there could be an immense巨大
technological技術性 disruption瓦解 --
275
844286
4510
一個極為龐大的科技衝擊將要來臨,
14:20
not in 200 years年份,
but in 10, 20, 30 years年份 --
276
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4122
不是 200 年後
而是在 10、20、30 年──
14:24
and we have to do something about it now,
277
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2570
所以我們現在必須要做準備,
14:27
partly部分地 because most of what we teach
children孩子 today今天 in school學校 or in college學院
278
855560
6276
部份原因是,
因為學校或大學現在教的
14:33
is going to be completely全然 irrelevant不相干
to the job工作 market市場 of 2040, 2050.
279
861860
6001
會完全與 2040、2050 年代的
就業環境全無關連。
14:39
So it's not something we'll need
to think about in 2040.
280
867885
3358
所以這些不能等到
2040 年才考慮,
14:43
We need to think today今天
what to teach the young年輕 people.
281
871267
3593
我們今天就得考慮該教
年輕人什麼了。
14:46
CACA: Yeah, no, absolutely絕對.
282
874884
2653
克:是的,絕對需要。
14:50
You've often經常 written書面 about
moments瞬間 in history歷史
283
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3917
你常寫到,在某歷史時刻中,
14:54
where humankind人類 has ...
entered進入 a new era時代, unintentionally無意中.
284
882536
6859
人類不知然的,進入了一個新紀元。
15:01
Decisions決定 have been made製作,
technologies技術 have been developed發達,
285
889806
2868
某些政策被採納,
某些科技被發明了,
15:04
and suddenly突然 the world世界 has changed,
286
892698
2371
一瞬間世界就已經變了,
15:07
possibly或者 in a way
that's worse更差 for everyone大家.
287
895093
2467
但可能是對大家都不利的。
15:09
So one of the examples例子
you give in "Sapiens智人"
288
897584
2075
其中一個例子你在
《人類大歷史》 中提過,
15:11
is just the whole整個 agricultural農業的 revolution革命,
289
899683
2091
就是總體的農業革命:
15:13
which哪一個, for an actual實際 person
tilling翻耕 the fields領域,
290
901798
3554
它對一個耕種農地的人來講,
15:17
they just picked採摘的 up a 12-hour-小時
backbreaking非常辛勞的 workday勞動日
291
905376
3180
他們剛接納了
一天 12 小時的要命工作,
15:20
instead代替 of six hours小時 in the jungle叢林
and a much more interesting有趣 lifestyle生活方式.
292
908580
6248
來取替以往在森林
更有樂趣的 6 小時生活。
15:26
(Laughter笑聲)
293
914852
1042
(笑聲)
15:27
So are we at another另一個 possible可能
phase change更改 here,
294
915918
3189
所以是否我們又可能面臨革命了,
15:31
where we kind of sleepwalk夢遊 into a future未來
that none沒有 of us actually其實 wants?
295
919131
4488
我們就像夢遊人踏進一個
根本不想要的未來?
15:36
YNHYNH: Yes, very much so.
296
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2733
尤:是的,就是這樣。
15:38
During the agricultural農業的 revolution革命,
297
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1837
在農業革命時代,
15:40
what happened發生 is that immense巨大
technological技術性 and economic經濟 revolution革命
298
928676
4420
那巨大的科技和經濟改變
15:45
empowered授權 the human人的 collective集體,
299
933120
2865
賦予整體人類很大的力量。
15:48
but when you look at actual實際
individual個人 lives生活,
300
936009
2953
但當你觀察人民的實質生活時,
15:50
the life of a tiny elite原種
became成為 much better,
301
938986
3494
你發現只是小部分
菁英之生活有大提升,
15:54
and the lives生活 of the majority多數 of people
became成為 considerably相當 worse更差.
302
942504
4238
剩餘大部份人的生活是糟糕很多。
15:58
And this can happen發生 again
in the 21stST century世紀.
303
946766
2705
這可能會在 21 世紀重演。
16:01
No doubt懷疑 the new technologies技術
will empower授權 the human人的 collective集體.
304
949495
4866
不可置疑,新的科技會加強
人類的集體力量,
16:06
But we may可能 end結束 up again
305
954385
2720
但結果有可能再度還是
16:09
with a tiny elite原種 reaping收穫
all the benefits好處, taking服用 all the fruits水果,
306
957129
4457
只有極少之菁英
獲得所有的利益,獨享勝果,
16:13
and the masses群眾 of the population人口
finding發現 themselves他們自己 worse更差
307
961610
4186
而大部分的人民會
發現自己比以前還差多了,
16:17
than they were before,
308
965820
1301
16:19
certainly當然 much worse更差 than this tiny elite原種.
309
967145
2788
生活肯定是大大低於這些少數菁英。
16:22
CACA: And those elites精英
might威力 not even be human人的 elites精英.
310
970657
2655
克:這些菁英可能不是人類菁英,
16:25
They might威力 be cyborgs半機器人 or --
311
973336
1757
有可能是改造人或──
16:27
YNHYNH: Yeah, they could be
enhanced增強 super humans人類.
312
975117
2207
尤:對,他們也可能是
增強超級人類,
16:29
They could be cyborgs半機器人.
313
977348
1255
也可能是改造人,
16:30
They could be completely全然
nonorganic非器質性 elites精英.
314
978627
2357
也可能是非生物菁英,
16:33
They could even be
non-conscious不自覺的 algorithms算法.
315
981008
2528
也甚至是非意識的演算法。
16:35
What we see now in the world世界
is authority權威 shifting away
316
983560
4911
我們可觀察到,
現今世界已經漸把權柄
16:40
from humans人類 to algorithms算法.
317
988495
2269
從人類轉移到演算法了。
16:42
More and more decisions決定 --
about personal個人 lives生活,
318
990788
3524
越來越多的決策──
關於個人生活,
16:46
about economic經濟 matters事項,
about political政治 matters事項 --
319
994336
2672
關於經濟事項,關於政治事務──
16:49
are actually其實 being存在 taken採取 by algorithms算法.
320
997032
2479
已實質被演算法奪取了。
16:51
If you ask the bank銀行 for a loan貸款,
321
999535
2634
如果你去銀行申請貸款,
16:54
chances機會 are your fate命運 is decided決定
by an algorithm算法, not by a human人的 being存在.
322
1002193
4697
很大機會你的命運是由
演算法來決定,而非經人手了。
16:58
And the general一般 impression印象
is that maybe Homo智人 sapiens智人 just lost丟失 it.
323
1006914
6187
現在的一般看法是覺得人類
是不是已經打輸了?
17:05
The world世界 is so complicated複雜,
there is so much data數據,
324
1013125
4560
世界是那麼的複雜,那麼多的數據,
17:09
things are changing改變 so fast快速,
325
1017709
2554
事物也瞬息萬變,
17:12
that this thing that evolved進化
on the African非洲人 savanna稀樹草原
326
1020287
3601
所以在非洲大草原進化出來的這套,
17:15
tens of thousands數千 of years年份 ago --
327
1023912
1707
從數十萬年前──
17:17
to cope應付 with a particular特定 environment環境,
328
1025643
3497
來駕馭某特定大環境,
17:21
a particular特定 volume
of information信息 and data數據 --
329
1029164
3484
來處理某特定數量的資訊和數據──
17:24
it just can't handle處理 the realities現實
of the 21stST century世紀,
330
1032672
4336
這套是絕對不能應付
21 世紀的現實要求了,
17:29
and the only thing
that may可能 be able能夠 to handle處理 it
331
1037032
2897
而唯一有可能滿足這要求的,
17:31
is big-data大數據 algorithms算法.
332
1039953
2072
就只有是大數據分析了。
17:34
So no wonder奇蹟 more and more authority權威
is shifting from us to the algorithms算法.
333
1042049
6181
所以不難理解,越來越多的決策,
已從我們轉移到演算法分析了。
17:40
CACA: So we're in New York紐約 City
for the first of a series系列 of TEDTED Dialogues對話
334
1048857
3849
克:我們在紐約現場
舉行首場的 TED Dialogues 系列,
17:44
with Yuval尤瓦 Harari哈拉里,
335
1052730
2297
講員為尤瓦爾 · 哈拉瑞。
17:47
and there's a FacebookFacebook的 Live生活
audience聽眾 out there.
336
1055051
3844
我們也有臉書直播的聽眾,
17:50
We're excited興奮 to have you with us.
337
1058919
1651
我們很高興你們的參與,
17:52
We'll start開始 coming未來
to some of your questions問題
338
1060594
2102
我們一會兒就開始
回答你們的一些問題,
17:54
and questions問題 of people in the room房間
339
1062720
1714
和現場觀眾的問題。
17:56
in just a few少數 minutes分鐘,
340
1064458
1165
幾分鐘即開始,
17:57
so have those coming未來.
341
1065647
1964
請準備好問題。
17:59
Yuval尤瓦, if you're going
to make the argument論據
342
1067635
3897
尤瓦爾,如果您要辯論,
18:03
that we need to get past過去 nationalism民族主義
because of the coming未來 technological技術性 ...
343
1071556
6135
我們有必要超越國家主義,
由於即將來臨的科技──
18:11
danger危險, in a way,
344
1079218
1841
危險,可以說,
18:13
presented呈現 by so much of what's happening事件
345
1081083
1945
以當今多方面發生之事情顯示,
18:15
we've我們已經 got to have
a global全球 conversation會話 about this.
346
1083052
2443
對此我們必需要有全球性的討論。
18:17
Trouble麻煩 is, it's hard to get people
really believing相信 that, I don't know,
347
1085519
3428
但難題是不容易使人
真去相信,我不知道,
18:20
AIAI really is an imminent即將來臨
threat威脅, and so forth向前.
348
1088971
2161
人工智慧真的是燃眉之急等等,
18:23
The things that people,
some people at least最小,
349
1091156
2726
人人已注意到的,至少某些人,
18:25
care關心 about much more immediately立即, perhaps也許,
350
1093906
2035
可能此刻會比較重視的
18:27
is climate氣候 change更改,
351
1095965
1584
就是氣候變遷,
18:29
perhaps也許 other issues問題 like refugees難民,
nuclear weapons武器, and so forth向前.
352
1097573
4893
或其它像難民潮的議題,
核武器等等。
18:34
Would you argue爭論 that where
we are right now
353
1102490
5046
依我們目前的情況,
18:39
that somehow不知何故 those issues問題
need to be dialed撥打 up?
354
1107560
3549
你會爭辯說這些該趕快處理嗎?
18:43
You've talked about climate氣候 change更改,
355
1111133
2160
你剛已談到氣候變遷,
18:45
but Trump王牌 has said
he doesn't believe in that.
356
1113317
3656
但川普曾公開表示他不相信是真的;
18:48
So in a way, your most powerful強大 argument論據,
357
1116997
2439
因此可以說,你最有說服力的理據,
18:51
you can't actually其實 use to make this case案件.
358
1119460
2746
現在你卻不能實際拿出來用了。
18:54
YNHYNH: Yeah, I think with climate氣候 change更改,
359
1122230
2186
尤:對,關於氣候變遷,
18:56
at first sight視力, it's quite相當 surprising奇怪
360
1124440
3707
初步看,這是意料不到的,
19:00
that there is a very close correlation相關
361
1128171
2504
確是有個很密切的關係
19:02
between之間 nationalism民族主義 and climate氣候 change更改.
362
1130699
3322
連繫著國家主義和氣候變遷,
19:06
I mean, almost幾乎 always, the people
who deny拒絕 climate氣候 change更改 are nationalists民族主義者.
363
1134045
4587
你看,幾乎總是這樣,
那些否定氣候變遷的人
都是國家主義者,
19:10
And at first sight視力, you think: Why?
364
1138656
2081
你第一反應會問:為什麼?
19:12
What's the connection連接?
365
1140761
1153
是有什麼關連原因?
19:13
Why don't you have socialists社會主義者
denying否認 climate氣候 change更改?
366
1141938
2786
為什麼沒有社會主義者
否定氣候變遷呢?
19:16
But then, when you think
about it, it's obvious明顯 --
367
1144748
2351
但只要你靜下來想想就知道──
19:19
because nationalism民族主義 has no solution
to climate氣候 change更改.
368
1147123
3744
因為國家主義
對氣候變遷提不出解方。
19:22
If you want to be a nationalist民族主義者
in the 21stST century世紀,
369
1150891
3196
如果你想在 21 世紀
做個國家主義者,
19:26
you have to deny拒絕 the problem問題.
370
1154111
1872
你就必要否定這個問題了。
19:28
If you accept接受 the reality現實 of the problem問題,
then you must必須 accept接受 that, yes,
371
1156007
4487
但如果你認同這問題的真相,
你也就必須接受這點,
19:32
there is still room房間 in the world世界
for patriotism愛國主義,
372
1160518
2776
就是在這世界中,
還是有愛國主義的空間;
19:35
there is still room房間 in the world世界
for having special特別 loyalties忠誠
373
1163318
4151
在這世界中,還是有空間
表達特殊忠誠關係,
19:39
and obligations義務 towards your own擁有 people,
towards your own擁有 country國家.
374
1167493
4634
和民族情操的發輝,
和國家情懷的表達。
19:44
I don't think anybody任何人 is really
thinking思維 of abolishing取消 that.
375
1172151
3820
我想沒有人是真想毀掉這些的。
19:47
But in order訂購 to confront面對 climate氣候 change更改,
376
1175995
3001
但若要有效處理氣候變遷,
19:51
we need additional額外 loyalties忠誠
and commitments承諾
377
1179020
4211
我們需要更多的合作和決心,
19:55
to a level水平 beyond the nation國家.
378
1183255
2005
站在超國界的基礎上。
19:57
And that should not be impossible不可能,
379
1185284
2443
這其實不是不可能的,
19:59
because people can have
several一些 layers of loyalty忠誠.
380
1187751
3692
因為人本來就擁有多重的忠心:
20:03
You can be loyal忠誠 to your family家庭
381
1191467
2404
你可以忠於你的家庭,
20:05
and to your community社區
382
1193895
1513
同時也忠於你的社區,
20:07
and to your nation國家,
383
1195432
1329
亦忠於你的國家,
20:08
so why can't you also be loyal忠誠
to humankind人類 as a whole整個?
384
1196785
3628
那為什麼你不可以
也忠於人類共同體呢?
20:12
Of course課程, there are occasions場合
when it becomes difficult,
385
1200437
3399
當然,是會遇上難以取捨的衝突,
20:15
what to put first,
386
1203860
1783
該以什麼為先,
20:17
but, you know, life is difficult.
387
1205667
1823
但你也清楚,人生是艱難的,
20:19
Handle處理 it.
388
1207514
1151
做個好決擇吧!
20:20
(Laughter笑聲)
389
1208689
2644
(笑聲)
20:23
CACA: OK, so I would love to get
some questions問題 from the audience聽眾 here.
390
1211357
4498
克:好的,我很樂意聽聽
現場聽眾的問題。
20:27
We've我們已經 got a microphone麥克風 here.
391
1215879
1918
我們這裡有麥克風,
20:29
Speak說話 into it, and FacebookFacebook的,
get them coming未來, too.
392
1217821
3217
對著說就行,臉書聽眾也請準備。
20:33
Howard霍華德 Morgan摩根: One of the things that has
clearly明確地 made製作 a huge巨大 difference區別
393
1221062
3434
摩根:有一件很明顯的關鍵事情,
就是在這國家和其它國家
20:36
in this country國家 and other countries國家
394
1224520
1786
20:38
is the income收入 distribution分配 inequality不等式,
395
1226330
2214
人均收入之不平衡情況。
20:40
the dramatic戲劇性 change更改
in income收入 distribution分配 in the US
396
1228568
4214
在美國之人均收入分佈,
比起 50 年前,產生了巨變,
20:44
from what it was 50 years年份 ago,
397
1232806
1702
20:46
and around the world世界.
398
1234532
1151
全世界也這樣。
20:47
Is there anything we can do
to affect影響 that?
399
1235707
3143
我們能做些什麼去影響它嗎?
20:50
Because that gets得到 at a lot
of the underlying底層 causes原因.
400
1238874
2841
因為這是很多其它問題的根源。
20:56
YNHYNH: So far I haven't沒有 heard聽說 a very
good idea理念 about what to do about it,
401
1244283
5314
尤:到目前,我還沒聽到
任何很好的解決方案,
21:01
again, partly部分地 because most ideas思路
remain on the national國民 level水平,
402
1249621
3728
這也正是因為有很多想法
都還困在國家性層面上,
21:05
and the problem問題 is global全球.
403
1253373
1768
但問題是跨國的。
21:07
I mean, one idea理念 that we hear
quite相當 a lot about now
404
1255165
2978
我想,有一個概念近來常聽到的
21:10
is universal普遍 basic基本 income收入.
405
1258167
1832
是全民基本收入。
21:12
But this is a problem問題.
406
1260023
1151
但概念本身就含有問題:
21:13
I mean, I think it's a good start開始,
407
1261198
1652
我意思是,這是個好起點,
21:14
but it's a problematic問題 idea理念 because
it's not clear明確 what "universal普遍" is
408
1262874
3722
但這概念是有問題的,
因為不清楚「全民」是什麼意思?
21:18
and it's not clear明確 what "basic基本" is.
409
1266620
1841
也不知道什麼是「基本」?
21:20
Most people when they speak說話
about universal普遍 basic基本 income收入,
410
1268485
3381
很多提出這個全民基本收入的人,
21:23
they actually其實 mean national國民 basic基本 income收入.
411
1271890
2785
還是想著「國家基本收入」,
21:26
But the problem問題 is global全球.
412
1274699
1744
但這問題是跨國的。
21:28
Let's say that you have AIAI and 3D printers打印機
taking服用 away millions百萬 of jobs工作
413
1276467
5650
比如說,現在人工智慧和 3D 列印
奪取了孟加拉數百萬人的工作,
21:34
in Bangladesh孟加拉國,
414
1282141
1156
21:35
from all the people who make
my shirts襯衫 and my shoes.
415
1283321
3248
他們是這些製造我穿在身上的
襯衫和皮鞋的工人,
21:38
So what's going to happen發生?
416
1286593
1306
那這該怎樣辦呢?
21:39
The US government政府 will levy徵收 taxes
on Google谷歌 and Apple蘋果 in California加州,
417
1287923
6539
是否美國政府要向
加州的 Google 和 Apple 徵稅,
21:46
and use that to pay工資 basic基本 income收入
to unemployed失業的 Bangladeshis孟加拉?
418
1294486
4581
來支付基本收入
給孟加拉國的失業者?
21:51
If you believe that,
you can just as well believe
419
1299091
2636
如果你相信這個,你不如也相信
21:53
that Santa聖誕老人 Claus克勞斯 will come
and solve解決 the problem問題.
420
1301751
3663
聖誕老人會來解決這問題了。
21:57
So unless除非 we have really universal普遍
and not national國民 basic基本 income收入,
421
1305438
5126
除非我們真的有全民基本收入,
而不是國家基本收入,
22:02
the deep problems問題
are not going to go away.
422
1310588
3135
這深層問題是不會消失的。
22:05
And also it's not clear明確 what basic基本 is,
423
1313747
2732
另外,還有「基本」是什麼呢?
22:08
because what are basic基本 human人的 needs需求?
424
1316503
2633
因為什麼是人類基本需求呢?
22:11
A thousand years年份 ago,
just food餐飲 and shelter庇護 was enough足夠.
425
1319160
2810
一千年前,溫飽已是足夠了;
22:13
But today今天, people will say
education教育 is a basic基本 human人的 need,
426
1321994
3611
但今天大家會說
教育也是人類基本需求,
22:17
it should be part部分 of the package.
427
1325629
1573
教育也該含在其中,
22:19
But how much? Six years年份?
Twelve十二 years年份? PhD博士?
428
1327226
3779
但至於程度呢?六年?
十二年?博士學位?
22:23
Similarly同樣, with health健康 care關心,
429
1331029
1833
同樣的,在醫療方面,
22:24
let's say that in 20, 30, 40 years年份,
430
1332886
2685
假設在 20、30、40 年後,
22:27
you'll你會 have expensive昂貴 treatments治療
that can extend延伸 human人的 life
431
1335595
3773
你會接受昂貴的治療來延長壽命
22:31
to 120, I don't know.
432
1339392
1915
到 120 歲?我可不確定。
22:33
Will this be part部分 of the basket
of basic基本 income收入 or not?
433
1341331
5191
那這也要包含在基本收入嗎?
22:38
It's a very difficult problem問題,
434
1346546
1429
這是非常困難的問題,
22:39
because in a world世界 where people
lose失去 their ability能力 to be employed就業,
435
1347999
6258
因為當世界的
人民失去了謀生技能時,
22:46
the only thing they are going to get
is this basic基本 income收入.
436
1354281
3581
人民只能靠這基本收入維生,
22:49
So what's part部分 of it is a very,
very difficult ethical合乎道德的 question.
437
1357886
5127
所以這基本收入該含什麼,
是個極度困難的倫理問題。
22:55
CACA: There's a bunch of questions問題
on how the world世界 affords得到 it as well,
438
1363037
3304
克:還有很多問題是,
這世界靠什麼來支付這筆費用?
22:58
who pays支付.
439
1366365
1160
誰來付錢?
22:59
There's a question here
from FacebookFacebook的 from Lisa麗莎 Larson拉爾森:
440
1367549
2812
這是臉書來的問題,麗莎拉爾森:
23:02
"How does nationalism民族主義 in the US now
441
1370385
2575
「現今在美國的國家主義,
23:04
compare比較 to that between之間
World世界 War戰爭 I and World世界 War戰爭 IIII
442
1372984
3415
和上世紀第一次
和第二次大戰之間比較,
23:08
in the last century世紀?"
443
1376423
1421
怎樣比?」
23:09
YNHYNH: Well the good news新聞, with regard看待
to the dangers危險 of nationalism民族主義,
444
1377868
4448
尤:在好的方面,
關於國家主義帶來的危險,
23:14
we are in a much better position位置
than a century世紀 ago.
445
1382340
3923
我們今天比一世紀前好多了。
23:18
A century世紀 ago, 1917,
446
1386287
2672
一世紀前,在 1917 年當時,
23:20
Europeans歐洲人 were killing謀殺
each other by the millions百萬.
447
1388983
3133
歐洲人民數以百萬計的互相殘殺,
23:24
In 2016, with BrexitBrexit,
as far as I remember記得,
448
1392140
4351
而在 2016 年,為英國脫歐之事,
依我能記得的,
23:28
a single person lost丟失 their life,
an MPMP who was murdered謀殺 by some extremist極端主義.
449
1396515
5237
只有一個人為此喪命,
一位英國國會議員被極端分子謀殺。
23:33
Just a single person.
450
1401776
1533
只一個人而已。
23:35
I mean, if BrexitBrexit was about
British英國的 independence獨立,
451
1403333
2685
你看,如果視英國脫歐
為英國爭取自由,
23:38
this is the most peaceful平靜的
war戰爭 of independence獨立 in human人的 history歷史.
452
1406042
4751
這可算是人類歷史中,
最和平的獨立戰爭。
23:42
And let's say that Scotland蘇格蘭
will now choose選擇 to leave離開 the UK聯合王國
453
1410817
5789
同時,如果蘇格蘭未來
選擇脫離英國,
23:48
after BrexitBrexit.
454
1416630
2176
在英國脫離歐盟之後,
23:50
So in the 18th century世紀,
455
1418830
1984
相對在 18 世紀時,
23:52
if Scotland蘇格蘭 wanted -- and the Scots蘇格蘭
wanted several一些 times --
456
1420838
3232
如蘇格蘭想──
事實上蘇格蘭也有好幾次──
23:56
to break打破 out of the control控制 of London倫敦,
457
1424094
3533
擺脫倫敦的控制時,
23:59
the reaction反應 of the government政府
in London倫敦 was to send發送 an army軍隊 up north
458
1427651
4298
倫敦政府之回應,是派軍隊北伐,
24:03
to burn燒傷 down Edinburgh愛丁堡
and massacre屠殺 the highland高地 tribes部落.
459
1431973
3471
把愛丁堡燒掉和屠殺高地部落族人;
24:07
My guess猜測 is that if, in 2018,
the Scots蘇格蘭 vote投票 for independence獨立,
460
1435468
5556
我猜如果在 2018 年,
蘇格蘭投票要獨立的話,
24:13
the London倫敦 government政府
will not send發送 an army軍隊 up north
461
1441048
3409
倫敦政府不可能派軍隊北上
24:16
to burn燒傷 down Edinburgh愛丁堡.
462
1444481
1603
去把愛丁堡燒平。
24:18
Very few少數 people are now willing願意
to kill or be killed殺害
463
1446108
4267
今天絕少人數會願意去殺或被殺,
24:22
for Scottish蘇格蘭的 or for British英國的 independence獨立.
464
1450399
2722
只為了蘇格蘭或英國之獨立。
24:25
So for all the talk
of the rise上升 of nationalism民族主義
465
1453145
5020
所以說,不管常聽到
國家主義正崛起,
24:30
and going back to the 1930s,
466
1458189
2243
但是比 1930 年代,
24:32
to the 19th century世紀, in the West西 at least最小,
467
1460456
3775
或再推前至 19 世紀,
起碼在西方世界,
24:36
the power功率 of national國民 sentiments情緒
today今天 is far, far smaller
468
1464255
6584
國家主義今天帶來的激情,
比上個世紀是少多了。
24:42
than it was a century世紀 ago.
469
1470863
1540
24:44
CACA: Although雖然 some people now,
you hear publicly公然 worrying令人擔憂
470
1472427
3837
克:雖然現在有些人──
你聽到他們公然的擔憂,
不知道這是否也正在改變,
24:48
about whether是否 that might威力 be shifting,
471
1476288
2756
就是可能在美國本土會有暴亂發生,
24:51
that there could actually其實 be
outbreaks爆發 of violence暴力 in the US
472
1479068
3398
24:54
depending根據 on how things turn out.
473
1482490
2347
取決於事態之未來發展。
我們真該為這擔憂嗎?
24:56
Should we be worried擔心 about that,
474
1484861
1539
或是你相信大局已改變了?
24:58
or do you really think
things have shifted?
475
1486424
2066
尤:沒改變,但我們是該擔心。
25:00
YNHYNH: No, we should be worried擔心.
476
1488514
1491
我們須警惕兩件事:
25:02
We should be aware知道的 of two things.
477
1490029
1625
首先,大家不要變得歇斯底里。
25:03
First of all, don't be hysterical歇斯底里.
478
1491678
1637
25:05
We are not back
in the First World世界 War戰爭 yet然而.
479
1493339
3447
我們還沒回到第一次世界大戰,
25:08
But on the other hand,
don't be complacent自滿.
480
1496810
2940
但另一方面,亦不可躊躇滿志。
25:11
We reached到達 from 1917 to 2017,
481
1499774
5374
人類能從 1917 年跨到 2017年,
25:17
not by some divine神聖 miracle奇蹟,
482
1505172
2182
並不是因為神蹟,
25:19
but simply只是 by human人的 decisions決定,
483
1507378
2024
而是因為人的正確選擇。
25:21
and if we now start開始 making製造
the wrong錯誤 decisions決定,
484
1509426
2663
所以如果我們
現在開始做錯誤的抉擇,
25:24
we could be back
in an analogous類似 situation情況 to 1917
485
1512113
4485
我們是可能倒退
至類似 1917 年的情況,
25:28
in a few少數 years年份.
486
1516622
1506
就在未來數年間。
25:30
One of the things I know as a historian歷史學家
487
1518152
2321
一件事我身為歷史學家清楚得很,
25:32
is that you should never
underestimate低估 human人的 stupidity糊塗事.
488
1520497
3675
就是你永遠不應低估人類的愚蠢。
25:36
(Laughter笑聲)
489
1524196
2883
(笑聲)
25:39
It's one of the most powerful強大
forces軍隊 in history歷史,
490
1527103
3084
它是歷史中最龐大力量之一:
25:42
human人的 stupidity糊塗事 and human人的 violence暴力.
491
1530211
2327
人類的愚蠢和人類的殘暴。
25:44
Humans人類 do such這樣 crazy things
for no obvious明顯 reason原因,
492
1532562
4105
人類能毫無原因地做些
極瘋狂的事情;
25:48
but again, at the same相同 time,
493
1536691
1710
但卻同時,在人類歷史中
25:50
another另一個 very powerful強大 force
in human人的 history歷史 is human人的 wisdom智慧.
494
1538425
3604
有另一個非常龐大的力量
就是人類的智慧。
25:54
We have both.
495
1542053
1166
兩者共存在人類中。
25:55
CACA: We have with us here
moral道德 psychologist心理學家 Jonathan喬納森 Haidt海特,
496
1543243
2902
克:道德心理學家強納生海特在這裡,
25:58
who I think has a question.
497
1546169
1623
他有一個問題。
26:00
Jonathan喬納森 Haidt海特: Thanks謝謝, Yuval尤瓦.
498
1548871
1483
海特 : 多謝,尤瓦爾。
26:02
So you seem似乎 to be a fan風扇
of global全球 governance治理,
499
1550378
2483
看來您是位全球行政制之支持者,
26:04
but when you look at the map地圖 of the world世界
from Transparency透明度 International國際,
500
1552885
3520
但是如果你看到
國際透明組織的世界地圖,
26:08
which哪一個 rates利率 the level水平 of corruption腐敗
of political政治 institutions機構,
501
1556429
3328
它展示出政治機構的貪污程度,
26:11
it's a vast廣大 sea of red with little bits
of yellow黃色 here and there
502
1559781
3080
它幾乎是片紅色大海,
偶爾這裡那裡有些小黃點
26:14
for those with good institutions機構.
503
1562885
1605
來標識好的政權。
26:16
So if we were to have
some kind of global全球 governance治理,
504
1564514
2501
所以如果我們真的有某種全球政府,
26:19
what makes品牌 you think it would end結束 up
being存在 more like Denmark丹麥
505
1567039
2831
你怎麼知道它會像丹麥,
26:21
rather than more like Russia俄國 or Honduras洪都拉斯,
506
1569894
2040
而不像蘇聯或宏都拉斯?
26:23
and aren't there alternatives備擇方案,
507
1571958
1501
而且可否有其它的選擇,
26:25
such這樣 as we did with CFCs氯氟烴?
508
1573483
2086
像我們監控氟氯碳化物一樣?
26:27
There are ways方法 to solve解決 global全球 problems問題
with national國民 governments政府.
509
1575593
3107
其實是有方法通過國家機構
來解決環球問題的。
26:30
What would world世界 government政府
actually其實 look like,
510
1578724
2214
世界政府會像怎樣的呢?
同時為什麼您認為它會成功呢?
26:32
and why do you think it would work?
511
1580962
1721
26:34
YNHYNH: Well, I don't know
what it would look like.
512
1582707
3760
尤:哦,我不知道它會像什麼,
26:38
Nobody沒有人 still has a model模型 for that.
513
1586491
3052
尚且沒有人能提出一個模式。
26:41
The main主要 reason原因 we need it
514
1589567
2628
但我們需要它之主要原因,
26:44
is because many許多 of these issues問題
are lose-lose兩敗俱傷 situations情況.
515
1592219
4294
就是因為很多的問題
會是雙輸的局面。
26:48
When you have
a win-win雙贏 situation情況 like trade貿易,
516
1596537
2892
當你有個雙贏的情況時,如貿易,
26:51
both sides雙方 can benefit效益
from a trade貿易 agreement協議,
517
1599453
2916
雙方都能從貿易合作中取得利益,
26:54
then this is something you can work out.
518
1602393
2264
這情況下雙方是可以找出方法的,
26:56
Without沒有 some kind of global全球 government政府,
519
1604681
2346
就算是沒有某種世界政府,
26:59
national國民 governments政府 each
have an interest利益 in doing it.
520
1607051
2854
各國政府都受激勵去協調;
27:01
But when you have a lose-lose兩敗俱傷 situation情況
like with climate氣候 change更改,
521
1609929
3971
但是當有雙輸的局面時,
比如氣候變遷,
27:05
it's much more difficult
522
1613924
1641
這就變困難多了,
27:07
without some overarching總體
authority權威, real真實 authority權威.
523
1615589
4886
如果缺乏一個
有執行實權的真正政府。
27:12
Now, how to get there
and what would it look like,
524
1620499
2762
至於如何能建立它和它會是怎樣的,
27:15
I don't know.
525
1623285
1360
我不知道。
27:16
And certainly當然 there is no obvious明顯 reason原因
526
1624669
3737
但是可以說的確沒有明顯理由
27:20
to think that it would look like Denmark丹麥,
527
1628430
2280
去預想它會像丹麥一樣,
27:22
or that it would be a democracy民主.
528
1630734
1588
或一定是民主的,
27:24
Most likely容易 it wouldn't不會.
529
1632346
2586
很可能它不會是。
27:26
We don't have workable可行 democratic民主的 models楷模
530
1634956
6031
我們還沒有一個能實施的民主制體
27:33
for a global全球 government政府.
531
1641011
2096
套用在世界政府。
27:35
So maybe it would look more
like ancient China中國
532
1643131
3065
所以它可能會像古中國
27:38
than like modern現代 Denmark丹麥.
533
1646220
1699
多於像現代丹麥。
27:39
But still, given特定 the dangers危險
that we are facing面對,
534
1647943
5223
但是,考量到我們當前的危機,
27:45
I think the imperative勢在必行 of having
some kind of real真實 ability能力
535
1653190
5120
我想這個迫切性,
去協調某些實質能力,
27:50
to force through通過 difficult decisions決定
on the global全球 level水平
536
1658334
4128
去強性通過一些
全球層面的艱難決策,
27:54
is more important重要
than almost幾乎 anything else其他.
537
1662486
4130
幾乎比任何一切都更重要。
27:59
CACA: There's a question from FacebookFacebook的 here,
538
1667591
2098
克:臉書觀眾有一個問題,
28:01
and then we'll get the micMIC to Andrew安德魯.
539
1669713
1893
然後我們會遞麥克風給安德魯。
28:03
So, Kat Hebron希伯倫 on FacebookFacebook的,
540
1671630
2196
這是臉書的凱特,
28:05
calling調用 in from Vail韋爾:
541
1673850
1668
從科羅拉多州韋爾打來的:
28:07
"How would developed發達 nations國家 manage管理
the millions百萬 of climate氣候 migrants移民?"
542
1675542
4211
「這些已發展國家,如何能妥善安排
數以百萬的氣候移民?」
28:12
YNHYNH: I don't know.
543
1680818
2154
尤:我不知道。
28:14
CACA: That's your answer回答, Kat. (Laughter笑聲)
544
1682996
1892
克:這是你的答案,凱特。
(笑聲)。
28:16
YNHYNH: And I don't think
that they know either.
545
1684912
2146
尤:同時我相信他們也不曉得。
28:19
They'll他們會 just deny拒絕 the problem問題, maybe.
546
1687082
1794
他們可能只會逃避這問題。
28:20
CACA: But immigration移民, generally通常,
is another另一個 example of a problem問題
547
1688900
3025
克:其實移民,一般來說,
也是一個很好的難題例子,
28:23
that's very hard to solve解決
on a nation-by-nation全國由國 basis基礎.
548
1691949
2573
若想在國與國的層面上解決,
它是很難處理的。
28:26
One nation國家 can shut關閉 its doors,
549
1694546
1470
一個國家可以把門關上,
28:28
but maybe that stores商店 up
problems問題 for the future未來.
550
1696040
2534
但這只是把問題留到未來。
28:30
YNHYNH: Yes, I mean --
it's another另一個 very good case案件,
551
1698598
3872
尤:是的,我同意──
這是一個很好的例子,
28:34
especially特別 because it's so much easier更輕鬆
552
1702494
2229
尤其今天是那麼容易去移民,
28:36
to migrate遷移 today今天
553
1704747
1831
28:38
than it was in the Middle中間 Ages時代
or in ancient times.
554
1706602
3689
比起在中世紀,或是在上古時候。
28:42
CACA: Yuval尤瓦, there's a belief信仰
among其中 many許多 technologists技術專家, certainly當然,
555
1710315
4463
克:尤瓦爾,現在有個信念,
尤其在技術專家中,
28:46
that political政治 concerns關注
are kind of overblown誇大,
556
1714802
2351
說那些政治問題,是誇大其詞而已,
28:49
that actually其實, political政治 leaders領導者
don't have that much influence影響
557
1717177
3697
其實政治領袖在這世界中
沒有那麼大的影響力,
28:52
in the world世界,
558
1720898
1166
28:54
that the real真實 determination決心 of humanity人性
at this point is by science科學,
559
1722088
3969
在這個時代,真正能導航
人類未來的是科學,
28:58
by invention發明, by companies公司,
560
1726081
1446
科技發明,或企業,
28:59
by many許多 things
other than political政治 leaders領導者,
561
1727551
4392
或是很多其它的東西,
但決不是政治領袖,
29:03
and it's actually其實 very hard
for leaders領導者 to do much,
562
1731967
2411
其實政府領袖是很難做些什麼的:
29:06
so we're actually其實 worrying令人擔憂
about nothing here.
563
1734402
2358
我們只是杞人憂天。
29:10
YNHYNH: Well, first, it should be emphasized強調
564
1738005
2236
尤:要明白,第一,我們需強調:
29:12
that it's true真正 that political政治 leaders'領導人
ability能力 to do good is very limited有限,
565
1740265
4997
政治領袖做好事之能力,
確實是很有限的,
29:17
but their ability能力 to do harm危害 is unlimited無限.
566
1745286
3043
但他們破壞之能力,是無限的。
29:20
There is a basic基本 imbalance失調 here.
567
1748353
2600
這裡有個根本不平衡的地方:
29:22
You can still press the button按鍵
and blow打擊 everybody每個人 up.
568
1750977
3568
你還是可以按一按扭,
去毀滅全人類。
29:26
You have that kind of ability能力.
569
1754569
1586
你真的有這種能力。
29:28
But if you want, for example,
to reduce減少 inequality不等式,
570
1756179
3569
但如果你想,比如說,
減低社會不平等,
29:31
that's very, very difficult.
571
1759772
1877
這是非常,非常艱難的,
29:33
But to start開始 a war戰爭,
572
1761673
1396
但要開戰的話,
29:35
you can still do so very easily容易.
573
1763093
1851
這你很容易就可做到。
29:36
So there is a built-in內建的 imbalance失調
in the political政治 system系統 today今天
574
1764968
3592
所以,這是個
當今政治之結構性不平衡,
29:40
which哪一個 is very frustrating洩氣,
575
1768584
1611
也讓人非常沮喪。
29:42
where you cannot不能 do a lot of good
but you can still do a lot of harm危害.
576
1770219
4901
因你雖不能做很多好事,
但卻能作出極大傷害。
29:47
And this makes品牌 the political政治 system系統
still a very big concern關心.
577
1775144
4144
這就是為什麼政治系統,
必然還是一個很大的議題。
29:51
CACA: So as you look at
what's happening事件 today今天,
578
1779812
2151
克:依您觀察現在世界事態,
29:53
and putting your historian's歷史學家 hat帽子 on,
579
1781987
1754
從歷史學家的角度評斷,
29:55
do you look back in history歷史 at moments瞬間
when things were going just fine
580
1783765
3526
在過去歷史中,
曾否有過雖是太平盛世,
29:59
and an individual個人 leader領導 really took
the world世界 or their country國家 backwards向後?
581
1787315
5333
但亦有因一個領袖
而陷全世界或國家後退嗎?
30:05
YNHYNH: There are quite相當 a few少數 examples例子,
582
1793307
2629
尤:有好幾個案例。
30:07
but I should emphasize注重,
it's never an individual個人 leader領導.
583
1795960
2819
但我必須強調,
從不會因為一個領袖而已;
30:10
I mean, somebody put him there,
584
1798803
1634
我的意思是,當事人也是
某些人推選他的,
30:12
and somebody allowed允許 him
to continue繼續 to be there.
585
1800461
3283
而某些人也容許當事人繼續留著;
30:15
So it's never really just the fault故障
of a single individual個人.
586
1803768
4083
所以客觀說,
這從來不是一個人的錯,
30:19
There are a lot of people
behind背後 every一切 such這樣 individual個人.
587
1807875
4613
這人背後都是有很多人支持著的。
30:24
CACA: Can we have the microphone麥克風
here, please, to Andrew安德魯?
588
1812512
3478
克:請把麥克風遞給安德魯。
30:31
Andrew安德魯 Solomon所羅門: You've talked a lot
about the global全球 versus the national國民,
589
1819132
3564
安德魯索羅門:您談了很多
全球主義和國家主義的比較,
30:34
but increasingly日益, it seems似乎 to me,
590
1822720
1626
但依我來看,日漸明顯的是,
30:36
the world世界 situation情況
is in the hands of identity身分 groups.
591
1824370
2643
世界局勢已經落在某些
擁有共同理想之團體組織中了。
30:39
We look at people within the United聯合的 States狀態
592
1827037
2310
我們看到在美國境內的居民,
30:41
who have been recruited應徵 by ISIS伊斯蘭國.
593
1829371
1627
竟然被伊斯蘭國恐怖組織招攬入會;
30:43
We look at these other groups
which哪一個 have formed形成
594
1831022
2191
我們同時也看看其它的團體,
它們不局限於某些國界,
30:45
which哪一個 go outside of national國民 bounds界限
595
1833237
1962
30:47
but still represent代表
significant重大 authorities當局.
596
1835223
2161
但也表現出相當程度的勢力。
30:49
How are they to be integrated集成
into the system系統,
597
1837408
2428
該如何把這些團體融入
傳統政治框架,
30:51
and how is a diverse多種 set of identities身份
to be made製作 coherent相干
598
1839860
3713
這類團體又如何能順利調合,
30:55
under either national國民
or global全球 leadership領導?
599
1843597
2338
受制於國家或全球行政管理中?
30:59
YNHYNH: Well, the problem問題
of such這樣 diverse多種 identities身份
600
1847380
3221
尤:其實這些不同主義的組織,
31:02
is a problem問題 from nationalism民族主義 as well.
601
1850625
2056
其實也是從國家主義衍生出來的。
31:05
Nationalism民族主義 believes相信
in a single, monolithic單片 identity身分,
602
1853229
4355
國家主義相信單一、統一的概念,
31:09
and exclusive獨家 or at least最小
more extreme極端 versions版本 of nationalism民族主義
603
1857608
4116
它是獨尊的,或是說那些
比較偏激的國家主義份子,
31:13
believe in an exclusive獨家 loyalty忠誠
to a single identity身分.
604
1861748
3569
只會獨忠於一個團體。
31:17
And therefore因此, nationalism民族主義 has had
a lot of problems問題
605
1865341
2916
所以說,國家主義歷來
都遇上很多困難,
31:20
with people wanting希望 to divide劃分
their identities身份
606
1868281
2876
去處理那些想自我分割
31:23
between之間 various各個 groups.
607
1871181
2063
為忠於多個不同主義的團體。
31:25
So it's not just a problem問題, say,
for a global全球 vision視力.
608
1873268
4875
所以這問題不僅是
全球主義者要面對的。
31:30
And I think, again, history歷史 shows節目
609
1878540
3852
但我想歷史再一次教導,
31:34
that you shouldn't不能 necessarily一定
think in such這樣 exclusive獨家 terms條款.
610
1882416
6127
我們不該堅守著這種排外的視野;
31:40
If you think that there is just
a single identity身分 for a person,
611
1888567
3408
如果你的思路是
一個人只能擁有一個身份,
31:43
"I am just X, that's it, I can't be
several一些 things, I can be just that,"
612
1891999
5040
「我就是某某,就這樣!
我不能有多重身份,
我只有一個身份」,
31:49
that's the start開始 of the problem問題.
613
1897063
2096
這就正是問題的開端了。
31:51
You have religions宗教, you have nations國家
614
1899183
2788
某些宗教,某些國家,
31:53
that sometimes有時 demand需求 exclusive獨家 loyalty忠誠,
615
1901995
3182
有時候是要求你獨忠不二的,
31:57
but it's not the only option選項.
616
1905201
1731
但這些不是唯一的選擇。
31:58
There are many許多 religions宗教 and many許多 nations國家
617
1906956
2382
世界上有很多宗教和很多國家,
32:01
that enable啟用 you to have
diverse多種 identities身份 at the same相同 time.
618
1909362
3878
容許你同時有多重身份的。
32:05
CACA: But is one explanation說明
of what's happened發生 in the last year
619
1913264
4357
克:如要試圖解釋去年發生的事情,
32:09
that a group of people have got
fed美聯儲 up with, if you like,
620
1917645
5180
某一階層的民眾受夠了
這些所謂自由派精英,
32:14
the liberal自由主義的 elites精英,
for want of a better term術語,
621
1922849
3167
希望有更好的說法,
32:18
obsessing沉迷 over many許多, many許多 different不同
identities身份 and them feeling感覺,
622
1926040
4373
著迷於很多很多不同的身份認同;
但這階層的人想,
32:22
"But what about my identity身分?
I am being存在 completely全然 ignored忽視 here.
623
1930437
3859
「那我的身份又怎樣?
我已經被完全忽略掉了。
32:26
And by the way, I thought
I was the majority多數"?
624
1934320
2974
可不要忘記,我還以為
我們是主流呢?」
32:29
And that that's actually其實
sparked引發 a lot of the anger憤怒.
625
1937318
2981
這想法正是構成很大的民憤之原因。
32:32
YNHYNH: Yeah. Identity身分 is always problematic問題,
626
1940918
3145
尤:對,身份認知總是大問題,
32:36
because identity身分 is always based基於
on fictional虛構 stories故事
627
1944087
4310
因為這認知是建立在虛構的故事上,
32:40
that sooner or later後來 collide碰撞 with reality現實.
628
1948421
2889
而故事遲早會與現實相撞。
32:43
Almost幾乎 all identities身份,
629
1951890
1518
幾乎所有的身份認知,
32:45
I mean, beyond the level水平
of the basic基本 community社區
630
1953432
3411
我指的是,任何超越
那些基本生活圈子內的,
32:48
of a few少數 dozen people,
631
1956867
1469
大概人數也不過是數十人,
32:50
are based基於 on a fictional虛構 story故事.
632
1958360
1929
都建立在一個虛構的故事上。
32:52
They are not the truth真相.
633
1960313
1641
這故事不是真理,
32:53
They are not the reality現實.
634
1961978
1315
更不是實際的狀況:
32:55
It's just a story故事 that people invent發明
and tell one another另一個
635
1963317
3094
故事只是某些人虛構出來,
32:58
and start開始 believing相信.
636
1966435
1491
而大家互傳,之後大家就相信了。
32:59
And therefore因此 all identities身份
are extremely非常 unstable不穩定.
637
1967950
5320
因為這樣,所有的身份都非常脆弱,
33:05
They are not a biological生物 reality現實.
638
1973294
2527
這些身份都沒有
生物上的事實支撐著:
33:07
Sometimes有時 nationalists民族主義者, for example,
639
1975845
2006
有些國家主義者,舉例說,
33:09
think that the nation國家
is a biological生物 entity實體.
640
1977875
2927
會想國家是個生物單元,
33:12
It's made製作 of the combination組合
of soil and blood血液,
641
1980826
3613
是大地泥土和血的混成物,
33:16
creates創建 the nation國家.
642
1984463
1702
再團聚為一個國家,
33:18
But this is just a fictional虛構 story故事.
643
1986189
3092
但這純粹是一個虛構故事。
33:21
CACA: Soil and blood血液
kind of makes品牌 a gooey感傷的 mess食堂.
644
1989305
2563
克:泥土和血是一團糟啊。
33:23
(Laughter笑聲)
645
1991892
1822
(笑聲)
33:25
YNHYNH: It does, and also
it messes混亂 with your mind心神
646
1993738
3024
尤:是的,它也能混亂你的思想,
33:28
when you think too much
that I am a combination組合 of soil and blood血液.
647
1996786
4784
如果你常想自己是土和血的混成物。
33:33
If you look from a biological生物 perspective透視,
648
2001594
2867
如果你是從生物角度的立場來想,
33:36
obviously明顯 none沒有 of the nations國家
that exist存在 today今天
649
2004485
3478
那明顯的是,沒有一個現今的國家,
33:39
existed存在 5,000 years年份 ago.
650
2007987
2243
5000 年之前是存在的。
33:42
Homo智人 sapiens智人 is a social社會 animal動物,
that's for sure.
651
2010254
3858
人類是一個社會動物,這是肯定的,
33:46
But for millions百萬 of years年份,
652
2014136
2427
但是幾百萬年來,
33:48
Homo智人 sapiens智人 and our hominid原始人 ancestors祖先
lived生活 in small communities社區
653
2016587
4639
人類和原始人類祖先都住在小社團,
33:53
of a few少數 dozen individuals個人.
654
2021250
2329
才不過幾十人,
33:55
Everybody每個人 knew知道 everybody每個人 else其他.
655
2023603
2127
每人都認識每個人。
33:57
Whereas modern現代 nations國家
are imagined想像 communities社區,
656
2025754
4021
但是現代的國家
只是個構思出來的團體,
34:01
in the sense that I don't even know
all these people.
657
2029799
2551
因為我根本不認識全國的人。
34:04
I come from a relatively相對
small nation國家, Israel以色列,
658
2032374
2848
我來自以色列,一個小國家,
34:07
and of eight million百萬 Israelis以色列人,
659
2035246
2143
約八百萬以色列人民;
34:09
I never met會見 most of them.
660
2037413
1990
絕大部分人我從來沒接觸過,
34:11
I will never meet遇到 most of them.
661
2039427
2308
我也永遠都不會認識他們,
34:13
They basically基本上 exist存在 here.
662
2041759
2562
他們只是存在著。
34:16
CACA: But in terms條款 of this identity身分,
663
2044345
2749
克:依這種身分認同角度來看,
34:19
this group who feel left out
and perhaps也許 have work taken採取 away,
664
2047118
5437
感覺被遺棄、很可能
連工作也被奪去的這個階層,
34:24
I mean, in "Homo智人 Deus殺出重圍,"
665
2052579
2294
我是指,在《人類大命運》書中,
34:26
you actually其實 speak說話 of this group
in one sense expanding擴大,
666
2054897
3111
你有指出這群人正在擴大,
34:30
that so many許多 people
may可能 have their jobs工作 taken採取 away
667
2058032
3622
因為有很多人的工作將被奪走,
34:33
by technology技術 in some way
that we could end結束 up with
668
2061678
4380
被科技取代;最後我們可能會剩下
34:38
a really large -- I think you call it
a "useless無用 class" --
669
2066082
3171
非常龐大的──記得你稱它為
「無用的階層」──
34:41
a class where traditionally傳統,
670
2069277
2103
這階層傳統以來,
34:43
as viewed觀看 by the economy經濟,
these people have no use.
671
2071404
2731
是以經濟生產而建立的,
現在就都沒用了。
34:46
YNHYNH: Yes.
672
2074159
1198
尤:對。
34:47
CACA: How likely容易 a possibility可能性 is that?
673
2075381
2931
克:這有多大的可能性呢?
34:50
Is that something
we should be terrified about?
674
2078336
2744
我們應該對此驚恐嗎?
34:53
And can we address地址 it in any way?
675
2081104
2659
還有我們能有方法應對它嗎?
34:55
YNHYNH: We should think about it
very carefully小心.
676
2083787
2247
尤:我們要非常謹慎思考這問題。
我是說,沒有人真的知道
34:58
I mean, nobody沒有人 really knows知道
what the job工作 market市場 will look like
677
2086058
2971
我們在 2040、2050 年的就業情況,
35:01
in 2040, 2050.
678
2089053
1690
35:02
There is a chance機會
many許多 new jobs工作 will appear出現,
679
2090767
2708
是有可能會有很多新的就業機會,
35:05
but it's not certain某些.
680
2093499
1754
但這不可肯定。
35:07
And even if new jobs工作 do appear出現,
681
2095277
2211
就算是有新的行業出來,
35:09
it won't慣於 necessarily一定 be easy簡單
682
2097512
1984
它不一定是一個 50 歲的
35:11
for a 50-year-年 old unemployed失業的 truck卡車 driver司機
683
2099520
2999
失業卡車司機容易勝任的,
35:14
made製作 unemployed失業的 by self-driving自駕車 vehicles汽車,
684
2102543
3033
失業之原因是被無人駕車取代了;
35:17
it won't慣於 be easy簡單
for an unemployed失業的 truck卡車 driver司機
685
2105600
3653
一個失業卡車司機是不容易
35:21
to reinvent重塑 himself他自己 or herself她自己
as a designer設計師 of virtual虛擬 worlds世界.
686
2109277
4786
去重塑自己為虛擬世界的設計師。
35:26
Previously先前, if you look at the trajectory彈道
of the industrial產業 revolution革命,
687
2114087
4182
依過去來看,如果
你觀察工業革命的走勢,
35:30
when machines replaced更換 humans人類
in one type類型 of work,
688
2118293
4157
當機器在某行業取代了人類,
35:34
the solution usually平時 came來了
from low-skill低技能 work
689
2122474
4281
解緩方法就是
35:38
in new lines of business商業.
690
2126779
2588
在新的行業裡找到低技能的工作:
35:41
So you didn't need any more
agricultural農業的 workers工人,
691
2129391
3402
比如你不需要農業勞工,
35:44
so people moved移動 to working加工
in low-skill低技能 industrial產業 jobs工作,
692
2132817
5414
這些人就去低技術的
工業生產線就業;
35:50
and when this was taken採取 away
by more and more machines,
693
2138255
3469
而當這些又被更多的機器取替後,
35:53
people moved移動 to low-skill低技能 service服務 jobs工作.
694
2141748
2970
這些人就遷到低技術的服務性行業。
35:56
Now, when people say there will
be new jobs工作 in the future未來,
695
2144742
3360
但現在,有人說未來會有新的工作,
36:00
that humans人類 can do better than AIAI,
696
2148126
2429
而且人類會比人工智慧做得更好,
36:02
that humans人類 can do better than robots機器人,
697
2150579
1830
人類會比機械人做得更好,
36:04
they usually平時 think about high-skill高技能 jobs工作,
698
2152433
2640
他們想的都是高技術的工作,
36:07
like software軟件 engineers工程師
designing設計 virtual虛擬 worlds世界.
699
2155097
3871
像軟體工程師設計虛擬世界。
36:10
Now, I don't see how
an unemployed失業的 cashier出納員 from Wal-Mart沃爾瑪
700
2158992
5394
可是,我無法想像,
一位失業的沃爾瑪大賣場出納員,
36:16
reinvents重塑 herself她自己 or himself他自己 at 50
as a designer設計師 of virtual虛擬 worlds世界,
701
2164410
4623
能在 50 歲時轉行為
虛擬世界設計師;
36:21
and certainly當然 I don't see
702
2169057
1471
我更不能想像,
36:22
how the millions百萬 of unemployed失業的
Bangladeshi孟加拉國 textile紡織品 workers工人
703
2170552
3467
這數百萬孟加拉國籍的
失業紡織工人,
36:26
will be able能夠 to do that.
704
2174043
1611
如何能夠做得到。
36:27
I mean, if they are going to do it,
705
2175678
1720
我是說,如果我們真要做到,
36:29
we need to start開始 teaching教學
the Bangladeshis孟加拉 today今天
706
2177422
3356
我們今天就要教導這些
孟加拉國籍工人,
36:32
how to be software軟件 designers設計師,
707
2180802
1754
如何成為軟體設計師。
36:34
and we are not doing it.
708
2182580
1243
但是我們現在沒這樣做,
36:35
So what will they do in 20 years年份?
709
2183847
2491
20 年後這群人能做什麼?
36:38
CACA: So it feels感覺 like you're really
highlighting突出 a question
710
2186362
3914
克:我感到你真的突顯了一個問題,
36:42
that's really been bugging竊聽 me
the last few少數 months個月 more and more.
711
2190300
4183
也真的是這數月來,
越來越困擾我的,
36:46
It's almost幾乎 a hard question
to ask in public上市,
712
2194507
2855
這幾乎是一個在大眾前忌諱的問題,
36:49
but if any mind心神 has some wisdom智慧
to offer提供 in it, maybe it's yours你的,
713
2197386
3391
但是如果有人能作出有智慧的回應,
這人可能是你,
36:52
so I'm going to ask you:
714
2200801
1545
所以我現在請問你:
36:54
What are humans人類 for?
715
2202370
1878
「人類有什麼意義?」
36:57
YNHYNH: As far as we know, for nothing.
716
2205232
1934
尤:據我們所知的,毫無意義。
36:59
(Laughter笑聲)
717
2207190
1712
(笑聲)
37:00
I mean, there is no great cosmic宇宙的 drama戲劇,
some great cosmic宇宙的 plan計劃,
718
2208926
5526
我是指,沒有偉大的神曲,
偉大的神的計劃,
37:06
that we have a role角色 to play in.
719
2214476
2841
等待著我們去參與。
37:09
And we just need to discover發現
what our role角色 is
720
2217341
3024
我們只需要發掘自我的角色,
37:12
and then play it to the best最好
of our ability能力.
721
2220389
2992
然後演繹得盡善盡美就是了。
37:15
This has been the story故事 of all religions宗教
and ideologies意識形態 and so forth向前,
722
2223405
4978
這是所有宗教
和思想體系的共同故事。
37:20
but as a scientist科學家, the best最好 I can say
is this is not true真正.
723
2228407
3478
但身為一個科學家,
我只能說,這不是事實;
37:23
There is no universal普遍 drama戲劇
with a role角色 in it for Homo智人 sapiens智人.
724
2231909
5358
沒有什麼偉大的神曲,
盼望我們人類參與。
37:29
So --
725
2237291
1681
所以──
37:30
CACA: I'm going to push back on you
just for a minute分鐘,
726
2238996
2493
克:我要追問你。
37:33
just from your own擁有 book,
727
2241513
1194
在你的書中,
37:34
because in "Homo智人 Deus殺出重圍,"
728
2242731
1324
因為在《人類大命運》中,
37:36
you give really one of the most coherent相干
and understandable可理解 accounts賬戶
729
2244079
5059
你作了一個最緊密和能理解的訴說,
37:41
about sentience知覺, about consciousness意識,
730
2249162
2232
關於感知性,關於自覺性,
37:43
and that unique獨特 sort分類 of human人的 skill技能.
731
2251418
2958
和那人類獨一無二的技能。
37:46
You point out that it's different不同
from intelligence情報,
732
2254400
2493
你也說這智慧,
37:48
the intelligence情報
that we're building建造 in machines,
733
2256917
2334
和我們設計在機器中的
智慧是不同的。
37:51
and that there's actually其實 a lot
of mystery神秘 around it.
734
2259275
3658
其實關於這一點,
還是有很多的奧秘:
37:54
How can you be sure there's no purpose目的
735
2262957
3377
你怎樣確定是沒有意義的呢?
37:58
when we don't even understand理解
what this sentience知覺 thing is?
736
2266358
4051
當我們還不全明白這感知性是什麼?
38:02
I mean, in your own擁有 thinking思維,
isn't there a chance機會
737
2270433
2576
我是想,在你的思路範疇中,
會不會有一個可能性,
38:05
that what humans人類 are for
is to be the universe's宇宙 sentient有情 things,
738
2273033
4312
人類的意義就是要
成就宇宙的感知性代表物,
38:09
to be the centers中心 of joy喜悅 and love
and happiness幸福 and hope希望?
739
2277369
3423
成為宇宙中的
喜悅和愛和快樂和希望?
38:12
And maybe we can build建立 machines
that actually其實 help amplify放大 that,
740
2280816
3035
我們同時也許可以設計一些
擴大這方面的機器,
38:15
even if they're not going to become成為
sentient有情 themselves他們自己?
741
2283875
2664
就算這些機器本身
不會真的有感知性的?
38:18
Is that crazy?
742
2286563
1151
這是狂想嗎?
38:19
I kind of found發現 myself hoping希望 that,
reading your book.
743
2287738
3483
當我在閱讀你的書時,
我心底有著這寄望。
38:23
YNHYNH: Well, I certainly當然 think that the most
interesting有趣 question today今天 in science科學
744
2291245
3857
尤:是的,我想當今科學中
最有趣的問題,
38:27
is the question
of consciousness意識 and the mind心神.
745
2295126
2423
就是關於自覺性和人的思想。
38:29
We are getting得到 better and better
in understanding理解 the brain
746
2297573
3498
我們對頭腦機能越來越了解,
38:33
and intelligence情報,
747
2301095
1260
還有智力,
38:34
but we are not getting得到 much better
748
2302379
2537
但我們沒有多大的進步,
38:36
in understanding理解 the mind心神
and consciousness意識.
749
2304940
2343
對思想和自覺性之了解。
38:39
People often經常 confuse迷惑 intelligence情報
and consciousness意識,
750
2307307
3362
一般人容易混淆智力和自覺性,
38:42
especially特別 in places地方 like Silicon Valley,
751
2310693
2299
尤其是在矽谷這類地方,
38:45
which哪一個 is understandable可理解,
because in humans人類, they go together一起.
752
2313016
3757
這也是可以理解的,
因為在人類,這兩者是共存的。
38:48
I mean, intelligence情報 basically基本上
is the ability能力 to solve解決 problems問題.
753
2316797
3579
我的意思是,智力基本上是
解決問題的能力;
38:52
Consciousness意識 is the ability能力
to feel things,
754
2320400
2542
自覺性是能感知事物,
38:54
to feel joy喜悅 and sadness
and boredom無聊 and pain疼痛 and so forth向前.
755
2322966
5212
能感知喜悅和悲哀,
無聊和痛楚等等;
39:00
In Homo智人 sapiens智人 and all other mammals哺乳動物
as well -- it's not unique獨特 to humans人類 --
756
2328202
4039
這些是人類和所有哺乳動物
都能的──不是人類獨能的──
39:04
in all mammals哺乳動物 and birds鳥類
and some other animals動物,
757
2332265
2647
所有哺乳動物和鳥類
和其它一些動物,
39:06
intelligence情報 and consciousness意識
go together一起.
758
2334936
2650
智力和自覺性是並行的。
39:09
We often經常 solve解決 problems問題 by feeling感覺 things.
759
2337610
3578
我們常依賴我們的感覺去解決問題,
39:13
So we tend趨向 to confuse迷惑 them.
760
2341212
1493
所以我們常把它們混同了,
39:14
But they are different不同 things.
761
2342729
1465
但其實它們是不同的事物。
39:16
What's happening事件 today今天
in places地方 like Silicon Valley
762
2344218
3088
目前在矽谷這類地方進行的,
39:19
is that we are creating創建
artificial人造 intelligence情報
763
2347330
3626
是研發人工智慧,
39:22
but not artificial人造 consciousness意識.
764
2350980
1822
但不是人工自覺性。
39:24
There has been an amazing驚人 development發展
in computer電腦 intelligence情報
765
2352826
3380
可以說在電腦智能方面,
39:28
over the last 50 years年份,
766
2356230
1562
過往 50 年來真是有驚人的進步,
39:29
and exactly究竟 zero development發展
in computer電腦 consciousness意識,
767
2357816
4201
但是在電腦自覺性只有零進步。
39:34
and there is no indication跡象 that computers電腦
are going to become成為 conscious意識
768
2362041
3686
同時也沒有跡象顯示
電腦有一天會有自覺性,
39:37
anytime任何時候 soon不久.
769
2365751
2531
起碼不在可想像的未來當中。
39:40
So first of all, if there is
some cosmic宇宙的 role角色 for consciousness意識,
770
2368306
5650
所以說,首先,如果自覺性
在宇宙中有特殊角色,
39:45
it's not unique獨特 to Homo智人 sapiens智人.
771
2373980
2130
這不是人類獨有的。
39:48
Cows奶牛 are conscious意識, pigs are conscious意識,
772
2376134
2319
牛也自覺,豬也自覺,
39:50
chimpanzees黑猩猩 are conscious意識,
chickens are conscious意識,
773
2378477
2833
黑猩猩也自覺,雞也自覺,
39:53
so if we go that way, first of all,
we need to broaden擴大 our horizons視野
774
2381334
3853
所以如果要向這方探索,
首先我們必要開闊我們的視野;
39:57
and remember記得 very clearly明確地 we are not
the only sentient有情 beings眾生 on Earth地球,
775
2385211
4725
而且要非常清楚記得,我們不是
地球上唯一有感知性的生物。
40:01
and when it comes to sentience知覺 --
776
2389960
1795
依感知性來說──
40:03
when it comes to intelligence情報,
there is good reason原因 to think
777
2391779
3312
依智力來說,
我們確是有很好理由去相信
40:07
we are the most intelligent智能
of the whole整個 bunch.
778
2395115
3296
我們是這群最聰明的;
40:10
But when it comes to sentience知覺,
779
2398435
2574
但是依感知性來說,
40:13
to say that humans人類 are more
sentient有情 than whales鯨魚,
780
2401033
3158
如果我們說人類的感知勝於鯨魚,
40:16
or more sentient有情 than baboons狒狒
or more sentient有情 than cats,
781
2404215
4147
或感知勝於狒狒,或感知勝於貓,
40:20
I see no evidence證據 for that.
782
2408386
2294
我是沒看到證據的。
40:22
So first step is, you go
in that direction方向, expand擴大.
783
2410704
3607
所以第一步,如你想走這方向,
首先擴大範圍。
40:26
And then the second第二 question
of what is it for,
784
2414335
3982
跟著的第二問題是:
「為了什麼目的?」
40:30
I would reverse相反 it
785
2418341
1782
我會反問,
40:32
and I would say that I don't think
sentience知覺 is for anything.
786
2420147
4236
我會說:「我不知道
感知性有任何目的。」
40:36
I think we don't need
to find our role角色 in the universe宇宙.
787
2424407
4172
我想我們不需要
找我們在宇宙的角色,
40:40
The really important重要 thing
is to liberate解放 ourselves我們自己 from suffering痛苦.
788
2428603
5813
真正重要的事情,
是要使我們脫離痛苦。
40:46
What characterizes特徵化 sentient有情 beings眾生
789
2434440
2993
感知生物的特徵,
40:49
in contrast對比 to robots機器人, to stones石頭,
790
2437457
2720
相對於機械人,或石頭,
40:52
to whatever隨你,
791
2440201
1183
或任何其它的,
40:53
is that sentient有情 beings眾生
suffer遭受, can suffer遭受,
792
2441408
3791
就是感知生物感覺到苦,會受苦。
40:57
and what they should focus焦點 on
793
2445223
2340
所以他們需要注意的是,
40:59
is not finding發現 their place地點
in some mysterious神秘 cosmic宇宙的 drama戲劇.
794
2447587
4120
並不是在神秘的神曲中找個位子,
41:03
They should focus焦點 on understanding理解
what suffering痛苦 is,
795
2451731
3819
而是該致力去了解痛苦是什麼,
41:07
what causes原因 it and how
to be liberated解放 from it.
796
2455574
3359
它怎樣產生的,
和如何能解脫遠離痛苦。
41:11
CACA: I know this is a big issue問題 for you,
and that was very eloquent雄辯.
797
2459572
3477
克:我知道這對你是一個重要的問題,
而您的回答也是極精闢。
41:15
We're going to have a blizzard暴風雪
of questions問題 from the audience聽眾 here,
798
2463073
3414
我們現場聽眾有非常多的問題,
41:18
and maybe from FacebookFacebook的 as well,
799
2466511
1920
臉書的聽眾也有,
41:20
and maybe some comments註釋 as well.
800
2468455
1673
同時也可能有些評語。
41:22
So let's go quick.
801
2470152
1796
好!
41:23
There's one right here.
802
2471972
1430
這邊有一位,
41:27
Keep your hands held保持 up
at the back if you want the micMIC,
803
2475052
2809
坐後面的,如果要麥克風
請把手舉高,
41:29
and we'll get it back to you.
804
2477885
1419
我們會有安排。
41:31
Question: In your work, you talk a lot
about the fictional虛構 stories故事
805
2479328
3119
問題:你的著作中,
多處談及到虛構的故事,
41:34
that we accept接受 as truth真相,
806
2482471
1344
我們卻認作為事實,
41:35
and we live生活 our lives生活 by it.
807
2483839
1717
而且更依它為生活指引。
41:37
As an individual個人, knowing會心 that,
808
2485580
2499
對您個人來說,明白到這一點後,
41:40
how does it impact碰撞 the stories故事
that you choose選擇 to live生活 your life,
809
2488103
3746
這對你已選擇的虛構故事
有怎樣影響嗎?
41:43
and do you confuse迷惑 them
with the truth真相, like all of us?
810
2491873
3740
你會像很多人,
將故事與真實混淆嗎?
41:48
YNHYNH: I try not to.
811
2496246
1211
尤:我試著防備。
41:49
I mean, for me, maybe the most
important重要 question,
812
2497481
2768
對我來說,最重要的問題,
41:52
both as a scientist科學家 and as a person,
813
2500273
2478
不論是以科學家身份或是個人身份,
41:54
is how to tell the difference區別
between之間 fiction小說 and reality現實,
814
2502775
3875
是能夠清楚分辨虛構和現實,
41:58
because reality現實 is there.
815
2506674
2596
因為現實是存在的。
42:01
I'm not saying that everything is fiction小說.
816
2509294
2082
我不是說所有一切都是虛構的,
42:03
It's just very difficult for human人的 beings眾生
to tell the difference區別
817
2511400
3052
只是對人類來說,是很難去分辨
42:06
between之間 fiction小說 and reality現實,
818
2514476
1617
虛構和現實。
42:08
and it has become成為 more and more difficult
as history歷史 progressed進展,
819
2516117
4945
而且隨著歷史的累積,
也變得越來越扭曲,
42:13
because the fictions小說
that we have created創建 --
820
2521086
2451
因為我們創造出來的這些故事──
42:15
nations國家 and gods and money
and corporations公司 --
821
2523561
3168
國家和神明,金錢和企業──
42:18
they now control控制 the world世界.
822
2526753
1510
它們已支配著這世界。
42:20
So just to even think,
823
2528287
1177
所以就算要去反思:
42:21
"Oh, this is just all fictional虛構 entities實體
that we've我們已經 created創建,"
824
2529488
3145
「啊!這些都是
我們創造的故事而已,」
42:24
is very difficult.
825
2532657
1447
就已經會感到吃力了。
42:26
But reality現實 is there.
826
2534128
2280
但現實是存在的。
42:29
For me the best最好 ...
827
2537043
2005
對我個人,最好的……
42:31
There are several一些 tests測試
828
2539072
2123
有好幾個測試
42:33
to tell the difference區別
between之間 fiction小說 and reality現實.
829
2541219
2770
可用來分辨故事和現實。
42:36
The simplest簡單 one, the best最好 one
that I can say in short,
830
2544013
3426
最簡單的,最易講解的,
42:39
is the test測試 of suffering痛苦.
831
2547463
1581
就是痛苦的測試。
42:41
If it can suffer遭受, it's real真實.
832
2549068
1553
如果能感到痛苦的,是存在的。
42:43
If it can't suffer遭受, it's not real真實.
833
2551192
1694
如果不能感到痛苦的,
便是不存在的。
42:44
A nation國家 cannot不能 suffer遭受.
834
2552910
1465
一個國家是不能感到痛苦的,
42:46
That's very, very clear明確.
835
2554399
1570
這應是非常,非常明顯的。
42:47
Even if a nation國家 loses失去 a war戰爭,
836
2555993
1938
就算是一個國家打敗戰時,
42:49
we say, "Germany德國 suffered遭遇 a defeat打敗
in the First World世界 War戰爭,"
837
2557955
4065
我們說:「德國在第一次
世界大戰受敗戰之苦,」
42:54
it's a metaphor隱喻.
838
2562044
1165
這只是個比喻,
42:55
Germany德國 cannot不能 suffer遭受.
Germany德國 has no mind心神.
839
2563233
2557
德國不可能感到痛苦,
德國沒有思想,
42:57
Germany德國 has no consciousness意識.
840
2565814
1653
德國沒有自覺性。
42:59
Germans德國 can suffer遭受, yes,
but Germany德國 cannot不能.
841
2567491
3658
德國人民可受苦了,這沒錯,
但德國是不可能的。
43:03
Similarly同樣, when a bank銀行 goes bust胸圍,
842
2571173
2969
同樣,當一個銀行倒閉時,
43:06
the bank銀行 cannot不能 suffer遭受.
843
2574166
1771
銀行是不可能受苦的。
43:07
When the dollar美元 loses失去 its value,
the dollar美元 doesn't suffer遭受.
844
2575961
3391
當貨幣貶值,貨幣不可能受苦的。
43:11
People can suffer遭受. Animals動物 can suffer遭受.
845
2579376
2250
人民會苦。動物會苦。
43:13
This is real真實.
846
2581650
1156
這是真實存在的。
43:14
So I would start開始, if you
really want to see reality現實,
847
2582830
4529
所以如果你想體悟存在,
我建議初步嘗試,
43:19
I would go through通過 the door of suffering痛苦.
848
2587383
2064
我會走進痛苦的大門,
43:21
If you can really understand理解
what suffering痛苦 is,
849
2589471
2954
如果你真的能體悟什麼是痛苦,
43:24
this will give you also the key
850
2592449
2223
這也會讓你能夠
43:26
to understand理解 what reality現實 is.
851
2594696
2017
明白什麼是存在。
43:28
CACA: There's a FacebookFacebook的 question
here that connects所連接 to this,
852
2596737
2783
克:這裡有個來自臉書的問題,
也是關於同一點的。
43:31
from someone有人 around the world世界
in a language語言 that I cannot不能 read.
853
2599544
2977
這從哪國來我不知道,
我不會讀這文字。
尤:啊,是希伯來語。
克:希伯來語。你的。
43:34
YNHYNH: Oh, it's Hebrew希伯來語.
CACA: Hebrew希伯來語. There you go.
854
2602545
2217
(笑聲)
43:36
(Laughter笑聲)
855
2604786
1062
你能讀這名字嗎?
43:37
Can you read the name名稱?
856
2605872
1164
尤:Or Lauterbach Goren.
43:39
YNHYNH: [??]
857
2607060
1875
43:40
CACA: Well, thank you for writing寫作 in.
858
2608959
1844
克:謝謝你的問題。
43:42
The question is: "Is the post-truth後的真相 era時代
really a brand-new全新的 era時代,
859
2610827
4555
問題是:「這個後真相政治時代
真的是一個全新時代嗎?
43:47
or just another另一個 climax高潮 or moment時刻
in a never-ending沒完沒了 trend趨勢?
860
2615406
4387
或只不過是一個高潮,
或邁向永無止境之一刻而已?」
43:52
YNHYNH: Personally親自, I don't connect
with this idea理念 of post-truth後的真相.
861
2620701
3329
尤:我個人而言,我對這個
後真相政治概念毫無共鳴。
43:56
My basic基本 reaction反應 as a historian歷史學家 is:
862
2624054
2708
我身為歷史學家的反應是:
43:58
If this is the era時代 of post-truth後的真相,
when the hell地獄 was the era時代 of truth真相?
863
2626786
3895
如果今天是後真相政治時代,
請問曾幾何時是真相政治時代?
44:02
CACA: Right.
864
2630705
1251
克:對。
(笑聲)
44:03
(Laughter笑聲)
865
2631980
1320
44:05
YNHYNH: Was it the 1980s, the 1950s,
the Middle中間 Ages時代?
866
2633324
4683
尤:是在 1980 年代,
1950 年代,或中世紀?
44:10
I mean, we have always lived生活
in an era時代, in a way, of post-truth後的真相.
867
2638031
4392
我認為,我們一路來
都像是活在後真相時代。
44:14
CACA: But I'd push back on that,
868
2642883
2311
克:這一點我們緩下來。
44:17
because I think what people
are talking about
869
2645218
2670
因為我想大家在談論的,
44:19
is that there was a world世界
where you had fewer journalistic新聞 outlets網點,
870
2647912
6960
是以往在世界上,
還沒有那麼多的媒體渠道,
44:26
where there were traditions傳統,
that things were fact-checked事實核對.
871
2654896
3648
而那時候的傳統,
資訊都是會經過考證查核的。
44:30
It was incorporated合併 into the charter憲章
of those organizations組織
872
2658568
3945
這自律精神也宣明在
媒體組織的憲章中,
44:34
that the truth真相 mattered要緊.
873
2662537
2167
事實真相是重要的。
44:36
So if you believe in a reality現實,
874
2664728
1749
所以如果你真的重視事實,
44:38
then what you write is information信息.
875
2666501
2223
那你所寫的就是資訊,
44:40
There was a belief信仰 that that information信息
should connect to reality現實 in a real真實 way,
876
2668748
3821
而且有個信念是要求
這資訊要與事實有關連;
44:44
and if you wrote a headline標題,
it was a serious嚴重, earnest認真 attempt嘗試
877
2672593
2961
所以當你寫報章頭條時,
你的心態是慎重誠懇的,
44:47
to reflect反映 something
that had actually其實 happened發生.
878
2675578
2303
來傳遞一些已發生的事物,
44:49
And people didn't always get it right.
879
2677905
1851
雖然不一定能百分百之正確。
44:51
But I think the concern關心 now is you've got
880
2679780
2009
而我想現在人人關注的
44:53
a technological技術性 system系統
that's incredibly令人難以置信 powerful強大
881
2681813
2318
是因為有了一個超強的科技系統,
44:56
that, for a while at least最小,
massively大規模 amplified放大 anything
882
2684155
4170
它能夠,雖然只是片刻,
極大量氾濫地傳遞資訊,
45:00
with no attention注意 paid支付 to whether是否
it connected連接的 to reality現實,
883
2688349
2780
但毫不注重資訊
是否與事實真的相關,
45:03
only to whether是否 it connected連接的
to clicks點擊 and attention注意,
884
2691153
3154
卻只重視觀聽人數和熱門度。
45:06
and that that was arguably按理說 toxic有毒的.
885
2694331
1616
這種情況:確是有人視之為污染,
45:07
That's a reasonable合理 concern關心, isn't it?
886
2695971
2436
這是合理的顧慮,是不是?
45:10
YNHYNH: Yeah, it is. I mean,
the technology技術 changes變化,
887
2698431
2286
尤:是的,是合理,
這是因為科技之改變,
45:12
and it's now easier更輕鬆 to disseminate傳播
both truth真相 and fiction小說 and falsehood謬誤.
888
2700741
5228
現在是很容易傳播
事實和虛構故事和謬誤。
45:17
It goes both ways方法.
889
2705993
2003
但是這改變可以是雙向的。
45:20
It's also much easier更輕鬆, though雖然, to spread傳播
the truth真相 than it was ever before.
890
2708020
4579
同樣,今時也是比往時
更容易傳播事實真相。
45:24
But I don't think there
is anything essentially實質上 new
891
2712623
3685
但我不認為在根本上,
有什麼嶄新的變化,
45:28
about this disseminating傳播
fictions小說 and errors錯誤.
892
2716332
4720
在傳播幻想和謊言方面。
45:33
There is nothing that -- I don't know --
Joseph約瑟夫 Goebbels戈培爾, didn't know
893
2721076
4034
我猜想沒有什麼是納粹宣傳長
約瑟夫·戈培爾不知情的,
45:37
about all this idea理念 of fake
news新聞 and post-truth後的真相.
894
2725134
5439
關於這假新聞和後真相時代的問題。
45:42
He famously著名 said that if you repeat重複
a lie謊言 often經常 enough足夠,
895
2730597
3718
他說過一名句:
「如果你不斷重複一個謊言,
45:46
people will think it's the truth真相,
896
2734339
1821
人人就會信它是真的,
45:48
and the bigger the lie謊言, the better,
897
2736184
2356
而越大的謊言,越是可信,
45:50
because people won't慣於 even think
that something so big can be a lie謊言.
898
2738564
6023
因為人們絕對不敢相信,
這麼大的事情竟然是個謊言。」
45:56
I think that fake news新聞
has been with us for thousands數千 of years年份.
899
2744611
5658
我相信假新聞,
已陪伴著人類幾千年了。
46:02
Just think of the Bible聖經.
900
2750293
1901
聖經就是一個。
46:04
(Laughter笑聲)
901
2752218
1387
(笑聲)
46:05
CACA: But there is a concern關心
902
2753629
1287
克:但這裡有個疑慮,
46:06
that the fake news新聞 is associated相關
with tyrannical強橫 regimes制度,
903
2754940
4017
就是當假新聞是從獨裁政府出來的,
46:10
and when you see an uprise in fake news新聞
904
2758981
2577
而當你也看到假新聞上升時,
46:13
that is a canary金絲雀 in the coal煤炭 mine
that there may可能 be dark黑暗 times coming未來.
905
2761582
4722
大家都會知道黑暗可能會來臨了。
46:20
YNHYNH: Yeah. I mean, the intentional故意的 use
of fake news新聞 is a disturbing煩擾的 sign標誌.
906
2768124
6962
尤:對,我也知道,故意散佈
假新聞是個令人不安的跡象。
46:27
But I'm not saying that it's not bad,
I'm just saying that it's not new.
907
2775812
4581
不過我不是說這是對的,
我是說這不是現今才有的。
46:32
CACA: There's a lot of interest利益
on FacebookFacebook的 on this question
908
2780820
2754
克:在臉書聽眾中有
很多有興趣知道關於
46:35
about global全球 governance治理
versus nationalism民族主義.
909
2783598
5000
環球管理和國家主義這議題。
46:41
Question here from Phil菲爾 Dennis丹尼斯:
910
2789292
1508
這是菲爾·丹尼思的問題:
46:42
"How do we get people, governments政府,
to relinquish放棄 power功率?
911
2790824
3496
「我們怎能使人民,
政權放棄權力呢?」
46:46
Is that -- is that --
actually其實, the text文本 is so big
912
2794344
3915
這——這那字體非常大啊。
46:50
I can't read the full充分 question.
913
2798283
1540
我看不清整條問題。
46:51
But is that a necessity必要性?
914
2799847
1539
「這是否不可避免,
46:53
Is it going to take war戰爭 to get there?
915
2801410
2612
真的要以戰爭來達到目標嗎?」
46:56
Sorry Phil菲爾 -- I mangled錯位 your question,
but I blame the text文本 right here.
916
2804046
3690
對不起菲爾,我搞錯您的問題,
不過我卸責於這文檔。
46:59
YNHYNH: One option選項
that some people talk about
917
2807760
2100
尤:有一些人在討論一個可能性,
47:01
is that only a catastrophe災難
can shake humankind人類
918
2809884
4739
就是只有浩劫能警醒人類,
47:06
and open打開 the path路徑 to a real真實 system系統
of global全球 governance治理,
919
2814647
5264
才能開展一條全球治理系統之道路。
47:11
and they say that we can't do it
before the catastrophe災難,
920
2819935
4148
他們說我們絕不能在浩劫前做到,
47:16
but we need to start開始
laying鋪設 the foundations基金會
921
2824107
2801
但我們要開始打下基礎,
47:18
so that when the disaster災害 strikes罷工,
922
2826932
2500
以便浩劫來臨時,
47:21
we can react應對 quickly很快.
923
2829456
2182
我們能很快回應;
47:23
But people will just not have
the motivation動機 to do such這樣 a thing
924
2831662
4000
可是人民不會有動力做這些,
47:27
before the disaster災害 strikes罷工.
925
2835686
2012
在浩劫發生之前。
47:29
Another另一個 thing that I would emphasize注重
926
2837722
2265
另外一件事我必要強調的,
47:32
is that anybody任何人 who is really
interested有興趣 in global全球 governance治理
927
2840011
5054
就是任何真正對
全球治理有興趣的人,
47:37
should always make it very, very clear明確
928
2845089
2901
必要使人人都時時清楚知道,
47:40
that it doesn't replace更換 or abolish廢除
local本地 identities身份 and communities社區,
929
2848014
6584
原有的本地身份和社區團體,
是不會被取代或廢除的。
47:46
that it should come both as --
930
2854622
2956
全球治理應該要融匯兩者,
47:49
It should be part部分 of a single package.
931
2857602
3307
要全部納為同一整體方案。
47:52
CACA: I want to hear more on this,
932
2860933
3378
克:我想多聽些這方面的,
47:56
because the very words "global全球 governance治理"
933
2864335
3053
因為「全球治理」這個字眼本身,
47:59
are almost幾乎 the epitome縮影 of evil邪惡
in the mindset心態 of a lot of people
934
2867412
4589
在很多人腦海中,差不多
是意味著邪惡的頂峰,
48:04
on the alt-rightALT-權 right now.
935
2872025
1326
尤其在另類右派之眼中:
48:05
It just seems似乎 scary害怕, remote遠程, distant遙遠,
and it has let them down,
936
2873375
2954
它讓人覺得可怕、冷漠、遙遠;
因為曾經讓他們失望過,
48:08
and so globalists全球主義者,
global全球 governance治理 -- no, go away!
937
2876353
4116
所以對全球治理主義者,
或全球治理──不要,走開!
48:12
And many許多 view視圖 the election選舉
as the ultimate最終 poke in the eye
938
2880493
3682
同時很多人對這次選舉結果,
視之為對全球治理主義者
終極之打擊。
48:16
to anyone任何人 who believes相信 in that.
939
2884199
1478
48:17
So how do we change更改 the narrative敘述
940
2885701
3551
但是,我們該如何改變我們的訴求,
48:21
so that it doesn't seem似乎
so scary害怕 and remote遠程?
941
2889276
2975
使它不那麼可怕與冷漠呢?
48:24
Build建立 more on this idea理念
of it being存在 compatible兼容
942
2892275
2744
可否在概念上更多的演繹,
全球治理主義為何能兼容
本地身份和社區團體等。
48:27
with local本地 identity身分, local本地 communities社區.
943
2895043
2621
48:29
YNHYNH: Well, I think again we should start開始
944
2897688
2600
尤:我想,我們還是需要
48:32
really with the biological生物 realities現實
945
2900312
3132
確實的回到
我們人類的生理實況。
48:35
of Homo智人 sapiens智人.
946
2903468
2011
48:37
And biology生物學 tells告訴 us two things
about Homo智人 sapiens智人
947
2905503
4118
生物學告訴我們關於人類的兩點,
48:41
which哪一個 are very relevant相應 to this issue問題:
948
2909645
2257
對這論點有很大關連的:
48:43
first of all, that we are
completely全然 dependent依賴的
949
2911926
3029
第一點,人類完全依賴
48:46
on the ecological生態 system系統 around us,
950
2914979
2595
我們身邊的生態環境系統,
48:49
and that today今天 we are talking
about a global全球 system系統.
951
2917598
3459
依時下說來,我們談的
是一個全球系統,
48:53
You cannot不能 escape逃逸 that.
952
2921081
1357
你不可逃避這一點。
48:54
And at the same相同 time, biology生物學 tells告訴 us
about Homo智人 sapiens智人
953
2922462
3622
同時,生物學也告訴我們,
48:58
that we are social社會 animals動物,
954
2926108
2247
人類是一種社會動物。
49:00
but that we are social社會
on a very, very local本地 level水平.
955
2928379
4637
但我們社交建立在一個
非常、非常地方性的層面;
49:05
It's just a simple簡單 fact事實 of humanity人性
956
2933040
3545
這是一個易見的人類實況,
49:08
that we cannot不能 have intimate親密 familiarity熟悉
957
2936609
4797
我們能建立親近關係之人數
49:13
with more than about 150 individuals個人.
958
2941430
3875
也多不多 150 個人。
49:17
The size尺寸 of the natural自然 group,
959
2945329
4297
這是一個自然的團體人數,
49:21
the natural自然 community社區 of Homo智人 sapiens智人,
960
2949650
3102
一個自然聚集之社區
49:24
is not more than 150 individuals個人,
961
2952776
3344
應不會超過150 人。
49:28
and everything beyond that is really
based基於 on all kinds of imaginary假想 stories故事
962
2956144
6399
任何大於這個數字的人際網絡,
都是建立在各類虛構故事
49:34
and large-scale大規模 institutions機構,
963
2962567
2047
和大型組織裡。
49:36
and I think that we can find a way,
964
2964638
4376
我想我們是能夠找出一條路,
49:41
again, based基於 on a biological生物
understanding理解 of our species種類,
965
2969038
4570
當然,這是要建立在對人類
生理學上之了解,
49:45
to weave編織 the two together一起
966
2973632
2082
把這兩點融貫一起,
49:47
and to understand理解 that today今天
in the 21stST century世紀,
967
2975738
3076
和清楚了解在 21 世紀的今天,
49:50
we need both the global全球 level水平
and the local本地 community社區.
968
2978838
5536
我們同時需要全球性和社區性。
49:56
And I would go even further進一步 than that
969
2984398
2017
還有,我會更深一層地詮釋,
49:58
and say that it starts啟動
with the body身體 itself本身.
970
2986439
3323
說我們要從身體開始:
50:02
The feelings情懷 that people today今天 have
of alienation異化 and loneliness孤單
971
2990500
4342
人類今天有疏離感和孤獨感,
50:06
and not finding發現 their place地點 in the world世界,
972
2994866
3216
和不能在世界找到自己的定位,
50:10
I would think that the chief首席 problem問題
is not global全球 capitalism資本主義.
973
2998106
5729
據我的看法這主要原因
不是在於全球資本主義。
50:16
The chief首席 problem問題 is that over
the last hundred years年份,
974
3004285
3026
主要問題是在於近一百年來,
50:19
people have been becoming變得 disembodied脫離現實,
975
3007335
3704
人類日漸蒙受到心身隔離,
50:23
have been distancing疏離 themselves他們自己
from their body身體.
976
3011063
3159
開始與自己的身體疏遠,
50:26
As a hunter-gatherer狩獵採集 or even as a peasant,
977
3014246
2896
一個狩獵採集者,
或就算一位農民而言,
50:29
to survive生存, you need to be
constantly經常 in touch觸摸
978
3017166
4198
要能活下去,你必須經常與
50:33
with your body身體 and with your senses感官,
979
3021388
2183
自己的身體和感官聯繫,
50:35
every一切 moment時刻.
980
3023595
1181
每一個時刻都要。
50:36
If you go to the forest森林
to look for mushrooms蘑菇
981
3024800
2147
如果你走進森林去尋找蕈類,
50:38
and you don't pay工資 attention注意
to what you hear,
982
3026971
2377
但你不留心你所聽到的,
50:41
to what you smell, to what you taste味道,
983
3029372
1876
所嗅到的,嚐到的,
50:43
you're dead.
984
3031272
1151
那你就沒命了。
50:44
So you must必須 be very connected連接的.
985
3032447
2151
所以你必需身心合一。
50:46
In the last hundred years年份,
people are losing失去 their ability能力
986
3034622
4596
但在近一百年來,
人類已漸漸失去了這能力,
50:51
to be in touch觸摸 with their body身體
and their senses感官,
987
3039242
2872
與自己身體和感官合一,
50:54
to hear, to smell, to feel.
988
3042138
2186
去聽,去嗅,去觸覺;
50:56
More and more attention注意 goes to screens屏幕,
989
3044348
3126
越來越多的精神是費在看螢幕,
50:59
to what is happening事件 elsewhere別處,
990
3047498
1520
在其它地方發生的事物,
51:01
some other time.
991
3049042
1221
在其它的時代。
51:02
This, I think, is the deep reason原因
992
3050287
2431
我相信這個就是一個深層理由,
51:04
for the feelings情懷 of alienation異化
and loneliness孤單 and so forth向前,
993
3052742
3894
人類有疏離感和孤單感等等。
51:08
and therefore因此 part部分 of the solution
994
3056660
2502
所以解決問題一部份方法,
51:11
is not to bring帶來 back
some mass nationalism民族主義,
995
3059186
4264
並不在復興國家主義,
51:15
but also reconnect重新連接 with our own擁有 bodies身體,
996
3063474
4124
而是要身心合一,
51:19
and if you are back
in touch觸摸 with your body身體,
997
3067622
3263
如果你能身心合一,
51:22
you will feel much more at home
in the world世界 also.
998
3070909
3170
你自然會在世界中有自在安全感。
51:26
CACA: Well, depending根據 on how things go,
we may可能 all be back in the forest森林 soon不久.
999
3074103
3685
克:是的,看世局如何走,
我們亦可以很快的回到森林。
51:29
We're going to have
one more question in the room房間
1000
3077812
2349
我們將接受現場最後一個問題,
51:32
and one more on FacebookFacebook的.
1001
3080185
1503
和一個臉書的問題。
51:33
Ama阿瑪 Adi-DakoADI-Dako公司: Hello你好. I'm from Ghana加納,
West西 Africa非洲, and my question is:
1002
3081712
3381
阿馬:你好,我來自
西非加納,我的問題是:
51:37
I'm wondering想知道 how do you present當下
and justify辯解 the idea理念 of global全球 governance治理
1003
3085117
4602
我想知道你會怎樣推行
和辯解全球治理,
51:41
to countries國家 that have been
historically歷史 disenfranchised被剝奪公民權
1004
3089743
3011
面對著那些歷來
都是被剝奪權力的國家,
51:44
by the effects效果 of globalization全球化,
1005
3092778
2045
而其原因正是全球化引發的。
51:46
and also, if we're talking about
global全球 governance治理,
1006
3094847
2746
還有,當我們談到全球治理,
51:49
it sounds聲音 to me like it will definitely無疑
come from a very Westernized西化 idea理念
1007
3097617
3624
我看來這個概念必定是從一個
51:53
of what the "global全球"
is supposed應該 to look like.
1008
3101265
2174
極西方國家角度
對「全球」來定義的,
51:55
So how do we present當下 and justify辯解
that idea理念 of global全球
1009
3103463
3290
所以我們如何說明和比較
這個全球概念
51:58
versus wholly nationalist民族主義者
1010
3106777
2993
與國家主義,
52:01
to people in countries國家 like Ghana加納
and Nigeria尼日利亞 and Togo多哥
1011
3109794
3335
對加納,奈及利亞和多哥的人民,
52:05
and other countries國家 like that?
1012
3113153
2176
以及類似的國家呢?
52:08
YNHYNH: I would start開始 by saying
that history歷史 is extremely非常 unfair不公平,
1013
3116131
6414
尤:首先我會說歷史非常不公平,
52:14
and that we should realize實現 that.
1014
3122569
3922
那是我們需要了解的,
52:19
Many許多 of the countries國家 that suffered遭遇 most
1015
3127004
3049
很多受傷害最大的國家,
52:22
from the last 200 years年份 of globalization全球化
1016
3130077
4139
在過往 200 年的全球化發展下,
52:26
and imperialism帝國主義 and industrialization工業化
1017
3134240
1960
和大英帝國主義和工業革命下,
52:28
are exactly究竟 the countries國家
which哪一個 are also most likely容易 to suffer遭受 most
1018
3136224
5710
將會再次受到最大的傷害,
52:33
from the next下一個 wave.
1019
3141958
2789
在下一個浪頭來臨時。
52:36
And we should be very,
very clear明確 about that.
1020
3144771
3994
我們必須非常、非常明確的指出,
52:41
If we don't have a global全球 governance治理,
1021
3149477
3051
如果我們沒有建立全球治理,
52:44
and if we suffer遭受 from climate氣候 change更改,
1022
3152552
3203
當我們受到氣候變遷災害,
52:47
from technological技術性 disruptions中斷,
1023
3155779
2257
或科技衝擊時,
52:50
the worst最差 suffering痛苦 will not be in the US.
1024
3158060
3601
最苦的不會是在美國,
52:53
The worst最差 suffering痛苦 will be in Ghana加納,
will be in Sudan蘇丹, will be in Syria敘利亞,
1025
3161685
5096
最苦的會發生在加納,
在蘇丹,在敘利亞,
52:58
will be in Bangladesh孟加拉國,
will be in those places地方.
1026
3166805
2737
在孟加拉國,在這些地方。
53:01
So I think those countries國家
have an even greater更大 incentive激勵
1027
3169566
6036
所以,我相信這些國家
應該更受激勵,
53:07
to do something about
the next下一個 wave of disruption瓦解,
1028
3175626
4727
去做些準備來面對下一波的衝擊,
53:12
whether是否 it's ecological生態
or whether是否 it's technological技術性.
1029
3180377
2525
不管是生態環境方面,
或是在科學技術方面。
53:14
Again, if you think about
technological技術性 disruption瓦解,
1030
3182926
2846
再重覆,如果你考慮到
科技上的衝擊,
53:17
so if AIAI and 3D printers打印機 and robots機器人
will take the jobs工作
1031
3185796
4616
如果說人工智慧,3D 列印和機械人,
會奪去數以億計的工作,
53:22
from billions數十億 of people,
1032
3190436
2369
53:24
I worry擔心 far less about the Swedes瑞典人
1033
3192829
3125
我比較不擔心瑞典人民,
53:27
than about the people in Ghana加納
or in Bangladesh孟加拉國.
1034
3195978
3605
而比較擔心在加納,
或在孟加拉國的人民。
53:31
And therefore因此,
because history歷史 is so unfair不公平
1035
3199607
5228
因此,因為歷史曾是那麼不公平,
53:36
and the results結果 of a calamity災害
1036
3204859
4346
而浩劫的後果,
53:41
will not be shared共享 equally一樣
between之間 everybody每個人,
1037
3209229
2368
將不會平均分攤到每個人。
53:43
as usual通常, the rich豐富
will be able能夠 to get away
1038
3211621
4433
而且照慣例,這些富裕的人能逃避
53:48
from the worst最差 consequences後果
of climate氣候 change更改
1039
3216078
3472
氣候變遷帶來的最嚴重災害,
53:51
in a way that the poor較差的
will not be able能夠 to.
1040
3219574
2845
但相對貧窮的人就不能夠了。
53:55
CACA: And here's這裡的 a great question
from Cameron卡梅倫 Taylor泰勒 on FacebookFacebook的:
1041
3223347
3408
克:臉書聽眾泰勒有個很好的問題:
53:58
"At the end結束 of 'Sapiens“智人,'"
1042
3226779
2121
「在《人類大歷史》的結尾,
54:00
you said we should be asking the question,
1043
3228924
2063
你說我們應該問:
54:03
'What do we want to want?'
1044
3231011
2356
『我們想要要什麼呢?』
54:05
Well, what do you think
we should want to want?"
1045
3233391
2987
請問你認為我們應該
想要要什麼呢?」
54:08
YNHYNH: I think we should want
to want to know the truth真相,
1046
3236402
3531
尤:我認為我們應該是想要
想知道真相,
54:11
to understand理解 reality現實.
1047
3239957
2650
想明白現實真相。
54:15
Mostly大多 what we want is to change更改 reality現實,
1048
3243207
5114
一般來說,我們想要的
只是去改變現實,
54:20
to fit適合 it to our own擁有 desires慾望,
to our own擁有 wishes祝福,
1049
3248345
3718
來迎合我們自己的慾望,
迎合我們的需求,
54:24
and I think we should first
want to understand理解 it.
1050
3252087
3720
我想我們該先去了解這些。
54:27
If you look at the long-term長期
trajectory彈道 of history歷史,
1051
3255831
3764
如果你以長期角度來覽觀歷史,
54:31
what you see is that
for thousands數千 of years年份
1052
3259619
2736
你看到幾千年來,
54:34
we humans人類 have been gaining取得
control控制 of the world世界 outside us
1053
3262379
3336
我們人類能不斷掌控
我們外在的世界,
54:37
and trying to shape形狀 it
to fit適合 our own擁有 desires慾望.
1054
3265739
3494
而且試圖改造它來滿足我們的欲望;
54:41
And we've我們已經 gained獲得 control控制
of the other animals動物,
1055
3269257
3188
同時我們也控制了其它的動物,
54:44
of the rivers河流, of the forests森林,
1056
3272469
1531
控制河流,控制森林,
54:46
and reshaped重塑 them completely全然,
1057
3274024
3493
而且更截然的把它們改頭換面,
54:49
causing造成 an ecological生態 destruction毀壞
1058
3277541
3361
引發出生態環境的破壞,
54:52
without making製造 ourselves我們自己 satisfied滿意.
1059
3280926
3178
但卻不能滿足我們。
54:56
So the next下一個 step
is we turn our gaze凝視 inwards向內,
1060
3284128
3802
所以下一步,
就是要把我們目光向內廻轉,
54:59
and we say OK, getting得到 control控制
of the world世界 outside us
1061
3287954
4548
而且告訴自己:
好,控制了外面世界
55:04
did not really make us satisfied滿意.
1062
3292526
1864
不能真的滿足我們。
55:06
Let's now try to gain獲得 control控制
of the world世界 inside us.
1063
3294414
2699
我們現在該嘗試降服內在的世界。
55:09
This is the really big project項目
1064
3297137
2163
這是一個真正大的項目,
55:11
of science科學 and technology技術
and industry行業 in the 21stST century世紀 --
1065
3299324
4296
一個在 21 世紀的科學和科技
和工業的項目──
55:15
to try and gain獲得 control控制
of the world世界 inside us,
1066
3303644
3522
試圖把我們內心世界馴服,
55:19
to learn學習 how to engineer工程師 and produce生產
bodies身體 and brains大腦 and minds頭腦.
1067
3307190
4923
研究如何去建造和生產
身體和大腦和思想。
55:24
These are likely容易 to be the main主要
products製品 of the 21stST century世紀 economy經濟.
1068
3312137
4642
這些很可能就是 21 世紀
主要經濟產物。
55:28
When people think about the future未來,
very often經常 they think in terms條款,
1069
3316803
3821
當人想到未來,很多時候會這樣想:
55:32
"Oh, I want to gain獲得 control控制
of my body身體 and of my brain."
1070
3320648
3947
「啊!我想要能夠控制
我的身體和我的大腦。」
55:36
And I think that's very dangerous危險.
1071
3324619
2810
但我想這會是非常危險的。
55:39
If we've我們已經 learned學到了 anything
from our previous以前 history歷史,
1072
3327453
3266
如果我們有從過去
歷史中學到一點教訓,
55:42
it's that yes, we gain獲得
the power功率 to manipulate操作,
1073
3330743
3913
就是,沒錯,我們是有了操控力,
55:46
but because we didn't really
understand理解 the complexity複雜
1074
3334680
2790
但是因為我們並不確實了解
我們生態系統的複雜性,
55:49
of the ecological生態 system系統,
1075
3337494
1805
55:51
we are now facing面對 an ecological生態 meltdown崩潰.
1076
3339323
3690
所以我們今天正要面對
生態環境的崩潰。
55:55
And if we now try to reengineer重新設計
the world世界 inside us
1077
3343037
5406
同樣如果我們現在就想操控
我們內心世界,
56:00
without really understanding理解 it,
1078
3348467
2132
在沒有真的了解的情況下,
56:02
especially特別 without understanding理解
the complexity複雜 of our mental心理 system系統,
1079
3350623
4316
尤其是沒能真正了解
我們思想系統之複雜性之前,
56:06
we might威力 cause原因 a kind of internal內部
ecological生態 disaster災害,
1080
3354963
4660
我們有可能會造成
類似內在的生態崩潰,
56:11
and we'll face面對 a kind of mental心理
meltdown崩潰 inside us.
1081
3359647
3543
結果就是我們未來將要面對
一種思想系統的崩潰。
56:16
CACA: Putting all the pieces
together一起 here --
1082
3364270
2442
克:我把所談的做個結論──
56:18
the current當前 politics政治,
the coming未來 technology技術,
1083
3366736
2680
現今政治,未來的科技,
56:21
concerns關注 like the one
you've just outlined概述 --
1084
3369440
2150
你剛才提出需要關注的事項──
56:23
I mean, it seems似乎 like you yourself你自己
are in quite相當 a bleak蒼涼 place地點
1085
3371614
3095
我的直覺,好像你本人不太樂觀。
56:26
when you think about the future未來.
1086
3374733
1621
當你想到未來的時候,
56:28
You're pretty漂亮 worried擔心 about it.
1087
3376378
1582
你好像很擔心的,
56:29
Is that right?
1088
3377984
1192
是不是?
56:31
And if there was one cause原因 for hope希望,
how would you state that?
1089
3379200
6688
但是如果個中真有一線希望,
你說是什麼?
56:37
YNHYNH: I focus焦點 on the most
dangerous危險 possibilities可能性
1090
3385912
4163
尤:我專注在最危險的可能性,
56:42
partly部分地 because this is like
my job工作 or responsibility責任
1091
3390099
3021
一部分是因為這是我的工作或責任,
56:45
as a historian歷史學家 or social社會 critic評論家.
1092
3393144
1781
身為一個歷史學家或社會評論人。
56:46
I mean, the industry行業 focuses重點 mainly主要
on the positive sides雙方,
1093
3394949
4762
我是說,工業界只會談正面的,
56:51
so it's the job工作 of historians歷史學家
and philosophers哲學家 and sociologists社會學家
1094
3399735
3361
所以歷史學家、
哲學家和社會學家的責任,
56:55
to highlight突出 the more dangerous危險 potential潛在
of all these new technologies技術.
1095
3403120
4441
是把這些新科技的潛在危險提出來。
56:59
I don't think any of that is inevitable必然.
1096
3407585
2483
我所談的沒有一項是必定要發生的,
57:02
Technology技術 is never deterministic確定性.
1097
3410092
3039
科技本身並無既定性,
57:05
You can use the same相同 technology技術
1098
3413155
1717
你可以用同一樣的科技,
57:06
to create創建 very different不同
kinds of societies社會.
1099
3414896
2991
來營造很不一樣的社會。
57:09
If you look at the 20th century世紀,
1100
3417911
2038
如果你看 20 世紀,
57:11
so, the technologies技術
of the Industrial產業 Revolution革命,
1101
3419973
2781
工業革命的科技發明,
57:14
the trains火車 and electricity電力 and all that
1102
3422778
3057
火車、電力和其它一切,
57:17
could be used to create創建
a communist共產 dictatorship專政
1103
3425859
3052
可用來創造一個共產獨裁主義,
57:20
or a fascist法西斯 regime政權
or a liberal自由主義的 democracy民主.
1104
3428935
2805
或一個法西斯政權,
或一個自由民主政黨。
57:23
The trains火車 did not tell you
what to do with them.
1105
3431764
2528
火車沒有叫你用它來做什麼。
57:26
Similarly同樣, now, artificial人造 intelligence情報
and bioengineering生物工程 and all of that --
1106
3434316
4452
同樣的,今天的人工智慧,
生物工程和一切其它的──
57:30
they don't predetermine預先確定 a single outcome結果.
1107
3438792
3514
它們不會預定任何一個結果。
57:34
Humanity人性 can rise上升 up to the challenge挑戰,
1108
3442886
3177
人類可以面對挑戰。
57:38
and the best最好 example we have
1109
3446087
1691
而我們最好的例子,
57:39
of humanity人性 rising升起 up
to the challenge挑戰 of a new technology技術
1110
3447802
3740
人類能戰勝科技帶來的挑戰
57:43
is nuclear weapons武器.
1111
3451566
1723
就是核武器。
57:45
In the late晚了 1940s, '50s,
1112
3453313
3009
在 1940 年代後期,1950 年代,
57:48
many許多 people were convinced相信
1113
3456346
2139
很多人都相信
57:50
that sooner or later後來 the Cold War戰爭
will end結束 in a nuclear catastrophe災難,
1114
3458509
4306
冷戰遲早會引發一場核武大災難,
57:54
destroying銷毀 human人的 civilization文明.
1115
3462839
1775
毀滅全人類文明。
57:56
And this did not happen發生.
1116
3464638
1480
這沒有發生。
57:58
In fact事實, nuclear weapons武器 prompted提示
humans人類 all over the world世界
1117
3466142
6420
反過來,核武驅使世界各地民族
58:04
to change更改 the way that they manage管理
international國際 politics政治
1118
3472586
4741
改變了手法去協調國際政治問題,
58:09
to reduce減少 violence暴力.
1119
3477351
2369
為了去減低暴力發生。
58:11
And many許多 countries國家 basically基本上 took out war戰爭
1120
3479744
3239
更有很多國家基本上已把戰爭
58:15
from their political政治 toolkit工具包.
1121
3483007
1874
從他們的政治工具包中拿掉了。
58:16
They no longer tried試著 to pursue追求
their interests利益 with warfare.
1122
3484905
4270
這些國家已選擇不用戰爭手段
來追求它們的利益。
58:21
Not all countries國家 have doneDONE so,
but many許多 countries國家 have.
1123
3489580
3270
不是全部國家,
但是很多已經是這樣了;
58:24
And this is maybe
the most important重要 reason原因
1124
3492874
3934
這可能就是最主要原因,
58:28
why international國際 violence暴力
declined下降 dramatically顯著 since以來 1945,
1125
3496832
6102
為什麼國際暴力
從 1945 年來急劇降低了。
58:34
and today今天, as I said,
more people commit承諾 suicide自殺
1126
3502958
3338
在今天,我早前也說過,
自殺的人之數字
58:38
than are killed殺害 in war戰爭.
1127
3506320
2207
多於在戰爭死亡的。
58:40
So this, I think, gives us a good example
1128
3508551
4829
所以我想這是個好的例子,
58:45
that even the most frightening可怕的 technology技術,
1129
3513404
3842
就算面對著使人最駭怕的科技,
58:49
humans人類 can rise上升 up to the challenge挑戰
1130
3517270
2535
人類也是能戰勝的,
58:51
and actually其實 some good can come out of it.
1131
3519829
3023
而且最終也能在其中挖出些寶。
58:54
The problem問題 is, we have very little
margin餘量 for error錯誤.
1132
3522876
4287
難題是,我們只有
極微小的誤差餘地,
58:59
If we don't get it right,
1133
3527187
2209
如果我們出了錯,
59:01
we might威力 not have
a second第二 option選項 to try again.
1134
3529420
3671
我們可能再沒有第二次機會了。
59:06
CACA: That's a very powerful強大 note注意,
1135
3534337
1567
克:這是很震撼的呼籲,
59:07
on which哪一個 I think we should draw
this to a conclusion結論.
1136
3535928
2805
我想我們也在這裡結束。
59:10
Before I wrap up, I just want to say
one thing to people here
1137
3538757
3111
在結束前,我想對在場聽眾
59:13
and to the global全球 TEDTED community社區
watching觀看 online線上, anyone任何人 watching觀看 online線上:
1138
3541892
5546
和全球的 TED 社團,
及網上的觀眾說:
59:19
help us with these dialogues對話.
1139
3547462
2893
支持這系列的 TED Dialogues。
59:22
If you believe, like we do,
1140
3550379
2550
如果你相信,像我們一樣的相信,
59:24
that we need to find
a different不同 kind of conversation會話,
1141
3552953
2980
我們需要尋找另類的交談,
59:27
now more than ever, help us do it.
1142
3555957
2233
此時此刻比過往更迫切,
請協助我們完成這事。
59:30
Reach達到 out to other people,
1143
3558214
2023
向其他人伸出手,
59:33
try and have conversations對話
with people you disagree不同意 with,
1144
3561269
2740
嘗試跟你意見不同的人對話,
59:36
understand理解 them,
1145
3564033
1183
了解他們,
59:37
pull the pieces together一起,
1146
3565240
1530
綜合多方意見,
59:38
and help us figure數字 out how to take
these conversations對話 forward前鋒
1147
3566794
3892
幫助我們找出最好的方法
去推展這論壇,
59:42
so we can make a real真實 contribution貢獻
1148
3570710
2254
使我們能對今天正在世界
59:44
to what's happening事件
in the world世界 right now.
1149
3572988
2745
發生的一切做出真實的貢獻。
59:47
I think everyone大家 feels感覺 more alive,
1150
3575757
3319
我相信每個人能活得更真實,
59:51
more concerned關心, more engaged訂婚
1151
3579100
2310
更誠懇,更有參與感,
59:53
with the politics政治 of the moment時刻.
1152
3581434
2529
對當今這些政治議題。
59:55
The stakes賭注 do seem似乎 quite相當 high,
1153
3583987
2454
這次成敗之差異是非常大的,
59:58
so help us respond響應 to it
in a wise明智的, wise明智的 way.
1154
3586465
4512
所以幫助我們以
非常智慧來回應這些。
00:03
Yuval尤瓦 Harari哈拉里, thank you.
1155
3591001
1595
尤瓦爾 · 哈拉瑞先生,謝謝。
00:04
(Applause掌聲)
1156
3592620
3308
(掌聲)
Translated by David Hsu
Reviewed by Regina Chu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, author
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake.

Why you should listen

In his book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Yuval Noah Harari explores the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the 21st century -- from overcoming death to creating artificial life. He maps the future and asks fundamental questions: Where do we go from here? How will we protect this fragile world from our own destructive powers? The book has sold four million copies since its publication in 2016.

Harari's previous book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, explores what made homo sapiens the most successful species on the planet. His answer: We are the only animal that can believe in things that exist purely in our imagination, such as gods, states, money, human rights, corporations and other fictions, and we have developed a unique ability to use these stories to unify and organize groups and ensure cooperation. Sapiens has sold eight million copies and been translated into more than 50 languages. Bill GatesMark Zuckerberg and President Barack Obama have recommended it as a must-read.

Harari lectures as a Professor of history at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he specializes in world history, medieval history and military history. His current research focuses on macro-historical questions: What is the relationship between history and biology? What is the essential difference between Homo sapiens and other animals? Is there justice in history? Does history have a direction? Did people become happier as history unfolded? Harari has written for newspapers such as The Guardian, Financial Times, the Times, Nature magazine and the Wall Street Journal.

Harari's new book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, will take the pulse of our current global climate, focusing on the biggest questions of the present moment: What is really happening right now? What are today’s greatest challenges and choices? What should we pay attention to? The book will be published in multiple languages in September 2018.

More profile about the speaker
Yuval Noah Harari | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com