TEDxCERN
Juan Enriquez: The age of genetic wonder
胡安·恩里克斯: 基因奇蹟的時代
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像 CRISPR 這樣的基因編輯工具使我們能夠在最基本的水平上編程生命。 但這引發了一些迫切的問題：如果我們能夠從頭開始生產新物種，我們應該建造什麼？ 我們應該重新設計我們所知道的人性嗎？ 胡安·恩里克斯預測基因編輯的可能未來，也探索這個新領域的巨大不確定性和可能帶來的機會。
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So let me with start with Roy Amara.
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讓我從羅伊·阿馬拉說起。
羅伊的論點是，大多數的新技術
00:16
Roy's argument is that most new
technologies tend to be overestimated
technologies tend to be overestimated
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00:20
in their impact to begin with,
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一開始的影響力往往被高估了，
00:22
and then they get underestimated
in the long term
in the long term
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之後，時間久了，
它們的影響力就會被低估，
它們的影響力就會被低估，
因為我們已經習以為常。
00:25
because we get used to them.
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00:26
These really are days
of miracle and wonder.
of miracle and wonder.
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「這真是充滿奇蹟和驚奇的日子。」
00:29
You remember that wonderful
song by Paul Simon?
song by Paul Simon?
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各位還記得保羅·賽門的
這首好歌嗎？
這首好歌嗎？
00:32
There were two lines in it.
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裡面有兩句歌詞。
00:33
So what was it that was considered
miraculous back then?
miraculous back then?
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所以，在那個年代，
哪些事情會被視為是奇蹟呢？
哪些事情會被視為是奇蹟呢？
00:38
Slowing down things -- slow motion --
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讓事物慢下來的——慢動作——
00:41
and the long-distance call.
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以及長途電話。
00:43
Because, of course, you used
to get interrupted by operators
to get interrupted by operators
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沒錯，因為過去的你
經常被接線生打斷，
經常被接線生打斷，
他會告訴你：「長途電話喔，
您要先掛斷嗎？」
您要先掛斷嗎？」
00:46
who'd tell you, "Long distance calling.
Do you want to hang up?"
Do you want to hang up?"
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如今，與世界各地通話
我們已經習以為常。
我們已經習以為常。
00:49
And now we think nothing of calling
all over the world.
all over the world.
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00:53
Well, something similar may be happening
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是的，也許類似的事情也正發生在
00:55
with reading and programming life.
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生命密碼的解讀與編程上。
00:58
But before I unpack that,
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但在我解說之前，
01:01
let's just talk about telescopes.
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我們先來談談望遠鏡。
01:04
Telescopes were overestimated
originally in their impact.
originally in their impact.
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望遠鏡的影響力一開始被高估了。
01:09
This is one of Galileo's early models.
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這是伽利略早期的款式之一。
01:12
People thought it was just
going to ruin all religion.
going to ruin all religion.
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大家以為它會毀掉所有宗教。
01:15
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
現在我們沒怎麼注意望遠鏡了。
01:18
So we're not paying that much
attention to telescopes.
attention to telescopes.
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01:22
But, of course, telescopes launched
10 years ago, as you just heard,
10 years ago, as you just heard,
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不過，就如各位前幾天聽到的
十年前升空的（克卜勒）太空望遠鏡，
十年前升空的（克卜勒）太空望遠鏡，
01:26
could take this Volkswagen,
fly it to the moon,
fly it to the moon,
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如果我們把這輛福斯汽車送到月球上，
01:29
and you could see the lights
on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
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你可透過那望遠鏡
看到福斯汽車車燈亮著。
看到福斯汽車車燈亮著。
01:36
And that's the kind of resolution power
that allowed you to see
that allowed you to see
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其解析度能讓你看見
01:40
little specks of dust
floating around distant suns.
floating around distant suns.
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漂浮在遙遠太陽周邊的小黑點。
01:44
Imagine for a second that this
was a sun a billion light years away,
was a sun a billion light years away,
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想像這是十億光年外的一顆恆星，
01:48
and you had a little speck of dust
that came in front of it.
that came in front of it.
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你可看到它前方的一個小塵埃。
01:51
That's what detecting
an exoplanet is like.
an exoplanet is like.
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偵測系外行星就是像這樣。
01:55
And the cool thing is, the telescopes
that are now being launched
that are now being launched
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很酷的是，新近升空的望遠鏡
02:00
would allow you to see
a single candle lit on the moon.
a single candle lit on the moon.
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可以讓你看到在月球上
一根點著的蠟燭。
一根點著的蠟燭。
02:04
And if you separated it by one plate,
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如果你放一個盤子在兩根蠟燭之間，
02:07
you could see two candles
separately at that distance.
separately at that distance.
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你可以從這麼遠的距離
分別看到兩根蠟燭。
分別看到兩根蠟燭。
有了這樣的解析度，
02:11
And that's the kind
of resolution that you need
of resolution that you need
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02:13
to begin to image
that little speck of dust
that little speck of dust
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你就可以開始成像
圍繞在太陽周邊的小塵埃，
02:16
as it comes around the sun
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看看是否有藍綠色的顏色。
02:17
and see if it has a blue-green signature.
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02:21
And if it does have
a blue-green signature,
a blue-green signature,
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如果確實有藍綠色的顏色，
就意味著，生命在宇宙中是普遍存在的。
02:23
it means that life
is common in the universe.
is common in the universe.
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02:25
The first time you ever see a blue-green
signature on a distant planet,
signature on a distant planet,
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你第一次在遠方的星球上
看到藍綠色的顏色，
看到藍綠色的顏色，
02:29
it means there's photosynthesis there,
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就表示那裡有光合作用，
02:31
there's water there,
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那裡有水，
02:33
and the chances that you saw
the only other planet with photosynthesis
the only other planet with photosynthesis
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除了地球外，你能在其它星球上
看到光合作用的可能性
看到光合作用的可能性
02:36
are about zero.
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幾乎是零。
02:39
And that's a calendar-changing event.
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那是個劃時代的事件，
02:41
There's a before and after
we were alone in the universe:
we were alone in the universe:
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區分「宇宙中是否獨存人類」的前後，
別再想發現什麼新大陸了。
02:44
forget about the discovery
of whatever continent.
of whatever continent.
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02:48
So as you're thinking about this,
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當你們還在想這件事時，
02:50
we're now beginning
to be able to image most of the universe.
to be able to image most of the universe.
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我們現在已經可以
把大部分的宇宙成像出來。
把大部分的宇宙成像出來。
這是充滿奇蹟和神奇的時代。
02:53
And that is a time of miracle and wonder.
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02:55
And we kind of take that for granted.
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我們也視為理所當然了。
02:59
Something similar is happening in life.
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類似的狀況也正發生在生命領域裡。
03:01
So we're hearing about life
in these little bits and pieces.
in these little bits and pieces.
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我們零零碎碎地聽到
關於生命的資訊。
關於生命的資訊。
03:04
We hear about CRISPR,
and we hear about this technology,
and we hear about this technology,
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我們聽說過 CRISPR 技術，
我們聽到這種技術，
我們聽到這種技術，
03:07
and we hear about this technology.
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我們聽到那種技術。
但生命的本質基本上就是編碼。
03:08
But the bottom line on life
is that life turns out to be code.
is that life turns out to be code.
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03:13
And life as code is a really
important concept because it means,
important concept because it means,
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用編碼來看生命是個非常
重要的概念，因為它的意義
重要的概念，因為它的意義
03:17
just in the same way
as you can write a sentence
as you can write a sentence
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就像是你能夠寫出一段句子一樣，
03:21
in English or in French or Chinese,
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不論是用英文、法文或中文，
03:25
just in the same way
as you can copy a sentence,
as you can copy a sentence,
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就如同你可以複製一個句子一樣，
03:28
just in the same way
as you can edit a sentence,
as you can edit a sentence,
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就像你可以編輯一個句子一樣，
03:30
just in the same way
as you can print a sentence,
as you can print a sentence,
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就像你可以列印一個句子一樣，
03:33
you're beginning to be able
to do that with life.
to do that with life.
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你也開始可以對生命做同樣的事。
03:37
It means that we're beginning
to learn how to read this language.
to learn how to read this language.
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那就意味著，我們要開始學習
如何閱讀這種語言。
如何閱讀這種語言。
03:40
And this, of course, is the language
that is used by this orange.
that is used by this orange.
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當然，這也是這顆柳橙的語言。
03:44
So how does this orange execute code?
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所以，這顆柳橙如何執行程式？
03:46
It doesn't do it in ones and zeroes
like a computer does.
like a computer does.
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它不能像電腦用 0 和 1 來執行。
它待在樹上，有一天它會 :
03:49
It sits on a tree, and one day it does:
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03:51
plop!
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撲通掉下來！
03:52
And that means: execute.
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那就是：執行。
03:55
AATCAAG: make me a little root.
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AATCAAG 生根，
03:59
TCGACC: make me a little stem.
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TCGACC 開枝，
04:01
GAC: make me some leaves.
AGC: make me some flowers.
AGC: make me some flowers.
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GAC 生葉，AGC 開花，
04:05
And then GCAA: make me some more oranges.
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然後 GCAA 長出更多的柳橙果實。
04:08
If I edit a sentence in English
on a word processor,
on a word processor,
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如果我用文字處理軟體
來編輯一段英文句子，
來編輯一段英文句子，
04:15
then what happens is you can go
from this word to that word.
from this word to that word.
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就是從這個字改成那個字。
04:20
If I edit something in this orange
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如果我在這顆柳橙裡動些手腳，
04:22
and put in GCAAC, using CRISPR
or something else that you've heard of,
or something else that you've heard of,
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用 CRISPR 或其它
你聽過的工具把 GCAAC 放入，
你聽過的工具把 GCAAC 放入，
04:28
then this orange becomes a lemon,
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這個柳橙就會變成檸檬，
04:30
or it becomes a grapefruit,
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或是變成葡萄柚，
04:32
or it becomes a tangerine.
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或是變成橘子。
04:35
And if I edit one in a thousand letters,
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如果我編輯一千個字母中的一個，
04:37
you become the person
sitting next to you today.
sitting next to you today.
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你就會變成你身旁坐的那個人。
04:40
Be more careful where you sit.
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選座位的時候小心點。
04:42
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:45
What's happening on this stuff
is it was really expensive to begin with.
is it was really expensive to begin with.
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事情是這樣的，
通常新的技術在一開始非常昂貴。
通常新的技術在一開始非常昂貴。
04:48
It was like long-distance calls.
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就像長途電話。
04:51
But the cost of this is dropping
50 percent faster than Moore's law.
50 percent faster than Moore's law.
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但它的成本降低的速度
比摩爾定律還要快 50%。
比摩爾定律還要快 50%。
04:55
The first $200 full genome
was announced yesterday by Veritas.
was announced yesterday by Veritas.
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昨天 Veritas 公司首推
200 美元的完整基因組定序服務。
200 美元的完整基因組定序服務。
05:00
And so as you're looking at these systems,
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所以，當你在看這些系統，
05:02
it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter,
it doesn't matter, and then it does.
it doesn't matter, and then it does.
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它無所謂，它無所謂，
它無所謂，接著，它有所謂了。
它無所謂，接著，它有所謂了。
05:06
So let me just give you
the map view of this stuff.
the map view of this stuff.
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讓我用地圖的方式呈現給各位看。
05:10
This is a big discovery.
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這是一項大發現。
05:13
There's 23 chromosomes.
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這裡有 23 對染色體。
05:15
Cool.
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很酷。
05:17
Let's now start using a telescope version,
but instead of using a telescope,
but instead of using a telescope,
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我們現在開始從望遠鏡的視角，
但不是使用望遠鏡，
但不是使用望遠鏡，
05:20
let's use a microscope to zoom in
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而是用顯微鏡來放大
05:23
on the inferior of those chromosomes,
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那些染色體中比較小的，
05:25
which is the Y chromosome.
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也就是 Y 染色體。
05:28
It's a third the size of the X.
It's recessive and mutant.
It's recessive and mutant.
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它的尺寸只有 X 的三分之一，
它是隱性的、突變的。
它是隱性的、突變的。
05:32
But hey,
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但，嘿，
05:34
just a male.
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只是個男性罷了。
05:36
And as you're looking at this stuff,
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看這個，
05:39
here's kind of a country view
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這像是在看整個國家，
05:42
at a 400 base pair resolution level,
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以 400 個鹼基對的解析度來看，
然後你放大到 550 個解析度，
然後你放大到 850 個解析度，
然後你放大到 850 個解析度，
05:44
and then you zoom in to 550,
and then you zoom in to 850,
and then you zoom in to 850,
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在你放大時，你就可以
開始識別越來越多的基因。
開始識別越來越多的基因。
05:48
and you can begin to identify
more and more genes as you zoom in.
more and more genes as you zoom in.
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05:52
Then you zoom in to the state level,
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然後你放大到州的大小，
05:55
and you can begin to tell
who's got leukemia,
who's got leukemia,
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你可以開始識別出誰有白血病，
05:59
how did they get leukemia,
what kind of leukemia do they have,
what kind of leukemia do they have,
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他們是怎麼得到白血病，
那是什麼樣的白血病，
那是什麼樣的白血病，
從什麼地方轉移到什麼地方。
06:02
what shifted from what place
to what place.
to what place.
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然後你放大到像是
Google 街景的大小。
Google 街景的大小。
06:05
And then you zoom in
to the Google street view level.
to the Google street view level.
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06:09
So this is what happens
if you have colorectal cancer
if you have colorectal cancer
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這就是你從某個患有
結直腸癌病人身上，
結直腸癌病人身上，
06:12
for a very specific patient
on the letter-by-letter resolution.
on the letter-by-letter resolution.
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以字母解析度級別所看到的狀況。
06:18
So what we're doing in this stuff
is we're gathering information
is we're gathering information
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我們在這個方面做的是在收集訊息，
06:21
and just generating
enormous amounts of information.
enormous amounts of information.
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以及生成非常大量的訊息。
這是世界上最大的數據庫之一，
06:23
This is one of the largest
databases on the planet
databases on the planet
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06:26
and it's growing faster
than we can build computers to store it.
than we can build computers to store it.
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而且它增長的速度比
我們建造電腦來存儲它還更快。
我們建造電腦來存儲它還更快。
你可以用這些資料
創造出不可思議的地圖。
創造出不可思議的地圖。
06:32
You can create some incredible
maps with this stuff.
maps with this stuff.
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06:35
You want to understand the plague
and why one plague is bubonic
and why one plague is bubonic
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你想了解瘟疫，想了解為什麼
這個瘟疫是腺鼠疫，
這個瘟疫是腺鼠疫，
06:38
and the other one
is a different kind of plague
is a different kind of plague
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另一個是不同的瘟疫，
另一個又是不同的瘟疫？
06:40
and the other one
is a different kind of plague?
is a different kind of plague?
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這就是瘟疫的地圖。
06:42
Well, here's a map of the plague.
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有些對人類絕對致命，有些則否。
06:45
Some are absolutely deadly to humans,
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06:46
some are not.
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順便說一下，
當你追根究底要知道
當你追根究底要知道
06:48
And note, by the way,
as you go to the bottom of this,
as you go to the bottom of this,
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它與結核病相比會如何呢？
06:51
how does it compare to tuberculosis?
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06:53
So this is the difference between
tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
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所以這就是結核病
和各種瘟疫之間的區別。
和各種瘟疫之間的區別。
06:57
and you can play detective
with this stuff,
with this stuff,
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你可以像個偵探去探究，
因為你可以拿一種特定的霍亂，
06:59
because you can take
a very specific kind of cholera
a very specific kind of cholera
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例如影響了海地的那種，
07:02
that affected Haiti,
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07:04
and you can look at
which country it came from,
which country it came from,
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你可以看它來自哪個國家，
07:07
which region it came from,
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來自哪個地區，
07:09
and probably which soldier took that
from that African country to Haiti.
from that African country to Haiti.
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以及可能是哪個士兵把那個霍亂
從那個非洲國家帶到海地。
從那個非洲國家帶到海地。
07:17
Zoom out.
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現在遠看，
它不只能近看。
07:18
It's not just zooming in.
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這是人類製作過的最酷的地圖之一。
07:21
This is one of the coolest maps
ever done by human beings.
ever done by human beings.
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07:24
What they've done is taken
all the genetic information they have
all the genetic information they have
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他們把所有物種的全部遺傳信息
07:27
about all the species,
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07:29
and they've put a tree of life
on a single page
on a single page
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做成一株生命樹放在一頁上，
你可以放大和縮小。
07:32
that you can zoom in and out of.
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07:34
So this is what came first,
how did it diversify, how did it branch,
how did it diversify, how did it branch,
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看得到先是什麼，如何分化、分支，
07:38
how large is that genome,
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該基因組有多大，
07:39
on a single page.
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全部以一頁呈現。
像是地球上生命的宇宙，
07:41
It's kind of the universe
of life on Earth,
of life on Earth,
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07:43
and it's being constantly
updated and completed.
updated and completed.
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一直不斷被更新和匯齊。
07:46
And so as you're looking at this stuff,
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所以當你看著這個，
真正重要的變化是
07:48
the really important change is
the old biology used to be reactive.
the old biology used to be reactive.
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以前是被動的舊的生物學。
07:52
You used to have a lot of biologists
that had microscopes,
that had microscopes,
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過去很多生物學家有顯微鏡，
他們也有放大鏡，會去觀察動物。
07:54
and they had magnifying glasses
and they were out observing animals.
and they were out observing animals.
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07:58
The new biology is proactive.
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新的生物學要你主動出擊。
你不只觀察東西，還可以創造東西。
08:01
You don't just observe stuff,
you make stuff.
you make stuff.
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08:05
And that's a really big change
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那是一個非常大的變化，
08:06
because it allows us
to do things like this.
to do things like this.
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因為它使我們能夠做像這樣的事情。
08:10
And I know you're really
excited by this picture.
excited by this picture.
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而且我知道你真的
對這張照片感到很興奮。
對這張照片感到很興奮。
（笑聲）
08:13
(Laughter)
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08:14
It only took us four years
and 40 million dollars
and 40 million dollars
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我們花了四年時間和四千萬美元
才拍到這張照片。
08:16
to be able to take this picture.
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（笑聲）
08:18
(Laughter)
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08:19
And what we did
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我們做的是
08:21
is we took the full gene code
out of a cell --
out of a cell --
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把一個細胞的基因代碼抽取出來——
08:24
not a gene, not two genes,
the full gene code out of a cell --
the full gene code out of a cell --
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不是一個基因，兩個基因，而是
一個細胞中的完整基因代碼 －－
一個細胞中的完整基因代碼 －－
建立了一個全新的基因代碼。
08:30
built a completely new gene code,
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08:32
inserted it into the cell,
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再將它植入細胞中，
08:34
figured out a way to have the cell
execute that code
execute that code
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找出一個可以讓細胞
執行該代碼的方法，
執行該代碼的方法，
08:37
and built a completely new species.
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然後就創造了一個全新的物種。
08:40
So this is the world's first
synthetic life form.
synthetic life form.
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所以這是世界上第一個
合成的生命形式。
合成的生命形式。
08:45
And so what do you do with this stuff?
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那你能用這個技術做什麼呢？
08:48
Well, this stuff is going
to change the world.
to change the world.
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好吧，這個技術將會改變世界。
08:51
Let me give you three short-term trends
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讓我告訴你們三個短期趨勢，
08:53
in terms of how it's going
to change the world.
to change the world.
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理解它將如何改變世界。
08:56
The first is we're going to see
a new industrial revolution.
a new industrial revolution.
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首先，我們將看到
一場新的工業革命。
一場新的工業革命。
08:59
And I actually mean that literally.
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我說的是真的，不誇張。
09:01
So in the same way as Switzerland
and Germany and Britain
and Germany and Britain
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所以就像瑞士、德國和英國
09:06
changed the world with machines
like the one you see in this lobby,
like the one you see in this lobby,
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用你在大廳看到的機器
改變了世界一樣，
改變了世界一樣，
創造能量。
09:11
created power --
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09:13
in the same way CERN
is changing the world,
is changing the world,
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與歐洲核子研究中心
一樣的方式正在改變世界，
一樣的方式正在改變世界，
09:15
using new instruments
and our concept of the universe --
and our concept of the universe --
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使用新儀器和我們對宇宙的概念。
09:20
programmable life forms
are also going to change the world
are also going to change the world
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可編程的生命形式也將改變世界，
09:23
because once you can program cells
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因為一旦你可以編程細胞
09:25
in the same way as you
program your computer chip,
program your computer chip,
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和你編程電腦晶片一樣，
09:29
then you can make almost anything.
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你幾乎可以做出任何東西。
09:32
So your computer chip
can produce photographs,
can produce photographs,
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2779
你的電腦晶片可以製作照片、
09:35
can produce music, can produce film,
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2073
製作音樂、製作電影、
09:37
can produce love letters,
can produce spreadsheets.
can produce spreadsheets.
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2413
製作情書以及製作電子表格。
09:39
It's just ones and zeroes
flying through there.
flying through there.
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其運作原理就是一些 1 和 0
在晶片裡飛來飛去 。
在晶片裡飛來飛去 。
09:42
If you can flow ATCGs through cells,
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2605
如果你可以讓 ATCG 在細胞中流通，
09:46
then this software makes its own hardware,
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3054
這個軟件就可以製作自己的硬體，
09:49
which means it scales very quickly.
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這意味著它擴展的速度非常快。
09:52
No matter what happens,
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無論發生了什麼，
09:54
if you leave your cell phone
by your bedside,
by your bedside,
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2158
如果你將手機放在你的床邊，
你在早上不會有十億支手機。
09:56
you will not have a billion
cell phones in the morning.
cell phones in the morning.
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2586
09:59
But if you do that with living organisms,
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4913
但如果你用活的生物體，
10:05
you can make this stuff
at a very large scale.
at a very large scale.
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2389
你可以大量製造。
10:09
One of the things you can do
is you can start producing
is you can start producing
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2896
一件你可以在 2025 年以前做的事
10:12
close to carbon-neutral fuels
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2223
就是以商業規模生產
10:14
on a commercial scale by 2025,
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2426
接近碳中性的燃料。
10:18
which we're doing with Exxon.
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1761
那是我們和埃克森美孚石油公司
正在合作進行的。
正在合作進行的。
10:20
But you can also substitute
for agricultural lands.
for agricultural lands.
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你也可以用它來取代農田。
10:23
Instead of having 100 hectares
to make oils or to make proteins,
to make oils or to make proteins,
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4751
不是用 100 公頃的土地
來製油或蛋白質，
來製油或蛋白質，
10:28
you can make it in these vats
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你可以在這些大桶裡做，
10:29
at 10 or 100 times
the productivity per hectare.
the productivity per hectare.
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2868
以每公頃 10 到 100 倍的產量來生產。
10:33
Or you can store information,
or you can make all the world's vaccines
or you can make all the world's vaccines
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3382
你可以存儲資訊
或製作世界上所有的疫苗，
或製作世界上所有的疫苗，
就在那三個大桶裡。
10:36
in those three vats.
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1299
10:39
Or you can store most of the information
that's held at CERN in those three vats.
that's held at CERN in those three vats.
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3949
或者在那三個大桶裡存儲
歐洲核子研究中心的大部分資料。
歐洲核子研究中心的大部分資料。
10:44
DNA is a really powerful
information storage device.
information storage device.
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DNA 真的是很強大訊息存儲設備。
10:48
Second turn:
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第二個趨勢是：
10:50
you're beginning to see the rise
of theoretical biology.
of theoretical biology.
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2784
你會開始看到理論生物學的崛起。
10:54
So, medical school departments are one
of the most conservative places on earth.
of the most conservative places on earth.
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所以，醫學院系是
地球上最保守的地方之一。
地球上最保守的地方之一。
10:58
The way they teach anatomy is similar
to the way they taught anatomy
to the way they taught anatomy
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他們教解剖學的方式
和 100 年前他們
教解剖學的方式相似。
教解剖學的方式相似。
11:01
100 years ago.
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1166
11:03
"Welcome, student. Here's your cadaver."
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2024
「歡迎，同學，這是你的屍體。」
11:06
One of the things medical schools are
not good at is creating new departments,
not good at is creating new departments,
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3707
醫學院不擅長創建新部門，
這是為什麼它很少見的原因。
11:09
which is why this is so unusual.
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1749
11:12
Isaac Kohane has now created a department
based on informatics, data, knowledge
based on informatics, data, knowledge
216
660351
6498
艾薩克·寇韓現在已經在哈佛醫學院
創建了一個基於訊息學、
數據和知識的部門。
數據和知識的部門。
11:18
at Harvard Medical School.
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1511
11:21
And in a sense,
what's beginning to happen is
what's beginning to happen is
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2177
從某種意義上，開始要發生的是
11:23
biology is beginning to get enough data
219
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2482
生物學開始會獲得足夠的數據
11:26
that it can begin to follow
the steps of physics,
the steps of physics,
220
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2766
可以開始追隨物理學發展的步伐，
11:28
which used to be observational physics
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3388
物理學曾經是「觀測」物理
11:32
and experimental physicists,
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和「實驗」物理，
11:34
and then started creating
theoretical biology.
theoretical biology.
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2162
然後開始創建理論生物學。
11:36
Well, that's what you're beginning to see
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2004
這就是你即將會看到的，
11:38
because you have so many medical records,
225
686526
1980
因為你有這麼多的病歷紀錄，
11:40
because you have
so much data about people:
so much data about people:
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2032
因為你所擁有的
有關人的數據如此之多：
有關人的數據如此之多：
11:42
you've got their genomes,
you've got their viromes,
you've got their viromes,
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2410
有他們的基因組，有他們的病毒，
11:45
you've got their microbiomes.
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1494
有他們的微生物群。
11:46
And as this information stacks,
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1981
而從這個訊息庫，
11:48
you can begin to make predictions.
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2063
你就可以開始做預測。
11:52
The third thing that's happening
is this is coming to the consumer.
is this is coming to the consumer.
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3255
第三件正在發生的是有關消費者的。
11:56
So you, too, can get your genes sequenced.
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4156
現在你也可以對自己的基因做定序了。
12:01
And this is beginning to create
companies like 23andMe,
companies like 23andMe,
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2728
這類的服務會造就出
像 23andMe 這類的公司，
像 23andMe 這類的公司，
12:04
and companies like 23andMe
are going to be giving you
are going to be giving you
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2478
而像 23andMe 這類的公司
會給你越來越多的數據，
會給你越來越多的數據，
12:06
more and more and more data,
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1352
12:08
not just about your relatives,
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1544
不只是有關你的親戚的訊息，
12:10
but about you and your body,
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1360
而且還有關於你和你的身體，
12:11
and it's going to compare stuff,
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1531
它會做比較，
而且它會與不同時間的資料做比較，
12:13
and it's going
to compare stuff across time,
to compare stuff across time,
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2093
而這些將成為非常大的數據庫。
12:15
and these are going to become
very large databases.
very large databases.
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2607
但它也會開始以意想不到的方式
12:18
But it's also beginning to affect
a series of other businesses
a series of other businesses
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2962
12:21
in unexpected ways.
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1537
影響到許多其他的行業。
12:23
Normally, when you advertise something,
you really don't want the consumer
you really don't want the consumer
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3751
通常，當你做廣告時，
你真的不希望消費者
你真的不希望消費者
12:27
to take your advertisement
into the bathroom to pee on.
into the bathroom to pee on.
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4567
拿你的廣告到浴室，在上面小便。
12:33
Unless, of course, if you're IKEA.
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2055
當然，除非你是宜家。
12:37
Because when you rip this
out of a magazine and you pee on it,
out of a magazine and you pee on it,
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2906
因為當你從一本雜誌上
撕下這個，然後你撒尿在上面，
撕下這個，然後你撒尿在上面，
12:40
it'll turn blue if you're pregnant.
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2069
如果你懷孕了，它會變成藍色。
12:42
(Laughter)
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1213
（笑聲）
12:44
And they'll give you
a discount on your crib.
a discount on your crib.
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3873
他們會給你嬰兒床的折扣。
12:48
(Laughter)
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1158
（笑聲）
12:49
Right? So when I say consumer empowerment,
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2015
對嗎？ 所以當我還在說消費者賦權時，
12:51
and this is spreading beyond biotech,
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2739
商人早已超越了生物技術，
12:54
I actually really mean that.
253
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1819
我真心認為如此。
12:58
We're now beginning to produce,
at Synthetic Genomics,
at Synthetic Genomics,
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3365
我們現在開始在
Synthetic Genomics 公司生產
Synthetic Genomics 公司生產
13:02
desktop printers
255
770540
1471
桌上型打印機，
13:05
that allow you to design a cell,
256
773228
3530
它可以讓你設計細胞、
列印細胞、
13:08
print a cell,
257
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1167
13:09
execute the program on the cell.
258
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1845
在細胞上執行程序。
13:12
We can now print vaccines
259
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2103
我們現在可以即時，
13:14
real time as an airplane takes off
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2247
在飛機起飛和降落其間，
13:17
before it lands.
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1190
完成疫苗的打印。
今年我們將生產 78 台這種機器。
13:19
We're shipping 78
of these machines this year.
of these machines this year.
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2572
13:24
This is not theoretical biology.
This is printing biology.
This is printing biology.
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4473
這不是理論生物學。
這是印刷生物學。
這是印刷生物學。
13:30
Let me talk about two long-term trends
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798182
2196
我來談談兩個長期趨勢，
13:33
that are coming at you
over a longer time period.
over a longer time period.
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3326
未來會慢慢地在你面前發生。
13:37
The first one is, we're starting
to redesign species.
to redesign species.
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2656
第一個是，我們開始重新設計物種。
13:41
And you've heard about that, right?
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1777
你已經聽說過，對嗎？
我們正在重新設計樹木。
我們正在重新設計鮮花。
我們正在重新設計鮮花。
13:42
We're redesigning trees.
We're redesigning flowers.
We're redesigning flowers.
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2681
13:45
We're redesigning yogurt,
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2293
我們正在重新設計優格、
13:48
cheese, whatever else you want.
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2030
奶酪，無論你想要什麼。
13:51
And that, of course,
brings up the interesting question:
brings up the interesting question:
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2650
那當然帶出了一個有趣的問題：
13:54
How and when should we redesign humans?
272
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2336
我們應該如何以及何時
重新設計人類呢？
重新設計人類呢？
我們很多人在想，「不！
我們永遠不要重新設計人類。」
我們永遠不要重新設計人類。」
13:59
And a lot of us think,
"Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
"Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
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14:04
Unless, of course, if your child
has a Huntington's gene
has a Huntington's gene
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當然，除非你的孩子
有亨丁頓舞蹈症的基因，
有亨丁頓舞蹈症的基因，
那等於被判死刑。
14:06
and is condemned to death.
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14:09
Or, unless if you're passing on
a cystic fibrosis gene,
a cystic fibrosis gene,
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或者，你有囊性纖維化基因
可能會傳給下一代，
可能會傳給下一代，
這時，你不只是想要重新設計自己，
14:12
in which case, you don't just want
to redesign yourself,
to redesign yourself,
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你也會想重新設計你的孩子
和他們的孩子。
和他們的孩子。
14:15
you want to redesign your children
and their children.
and their children.
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14:18
And these are complicated debates
and they're going to happen in real time.
and they're going to happen in real time.
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這些複雜的辯論未來都會發生。
14:22
I'll give you one current example.
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我給你一個當前的例子。
當今國家科學院正辯論的議題之一是
14:25
One of the debates going on
at the National Academies today
at the National Academies today
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能把一基因塞到蚊子身體裡
14:29
is you have the power to put
a gene drive into mosquitoes
a gene drive into mosquitoes
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來消滅所有攜帶瘧疾的蚊子。
14:34
so that you will kill
all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
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14:39
Now, some people say,
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但是有些人說，
「這將會嚴重地影響環境，
不要這樣做。」
不要這樣做。」
14:42
"That's going to affect the environment
in an extreme way, don't do it."
in an extreme way, don't do it."
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其他人說，
14:47
Other people say,
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這是每年造成數百萬人
死亡的原因之一。
死亡的原因之一。
14:48
"This is one of the things
that's killing millions of people yearly.
that's killing millions of people yearly.
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你憑什麼說
我不能拯救我國的小孩。」
我不能拯救我國的小孩。」
14:51
Who are you to tell me
that I can't save the kids in my country?"
that I can't save the kids in my country?"
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為什麼這場辯論如此複雜呢？
14:57
And why is this debate so complicated?
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因為只要在巴西釋出這種蚊子，
14:59
Because as soon as you
let this loose in Brazil
let this loose in Brazil
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或釋在佛羅里達州南部，
15:01
or in Southern Florida --
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15:03
mosquitoes don't respect walls.
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蚊子可不管什麼牆。
釋出一個基因的決定
15:04
You're making a decision for the world
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會影響整個世界。
15:07
when you put a gene drive into the air.
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這位出色的男子獲得諾貝爾獎。
15:14
This wonderful man won a Nobel Prize,
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在獲得諾貝爾獎後，
15:17
and after winning the Nobel Prize
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他一直在擔心
15:18
he's been worrying about
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生命如何在這個星球上開始，
15:21
how did life get started on this planet
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它在其它地方開始的
可能性有多大呢？
可能性有多大呢？
15:23
and how likely is it
that it's in other places?
that it's in other places?
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所以他一直對他的研究生說，
15:27
So what he's been doing is going around
to this graduate students
to this graduate students
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15:30
and saying to his graduate students,
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「幫我創造一些生命，但不要使用
任何現代化學品或儀器。
任何現代化學品或儀器。
15:32
"Build me life but don't use
any modern chemicals or instruments.
any modern chemicals or instruments.
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15:36
Build me stuff that was here
three billion years ago.
three billion years ago.
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創造那些三十億年就存在的生命。
不能使用激光，
不能用這個，不能用那個。」
不能用這個，不能用那個。」
15:38
You can't use lasers.
You can't use this. You can't use that."
You can't use this. You can't use that."
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大約三個星期前，
他給了我一瓶他創造的東西。
他給了我一瓶他創造的東西。
15:44
He gave me a vial of what he's built
about three weeks ago.
about three weeks ago.
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他創造了什麼？
15:48
What has he built?
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他的創造基本上看起來像
由脂質製成的肥皂泡。
由脂質製成的肥皂泡。
15:49
He's built basically what looked like
soap bubbles that are made out of lipids.
soap bubbles that are made out of lipids.
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4025
他創造了前信使 RNA 。
15:53
He's built a precursor of RNA.
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讓前信使 RNA 被細胞吸收
15:57
He's had the precursor of the RNA
be absorbed by the cell
be absorbed by the cell
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然後讓細胞分裂。
16:02
and then he's had the cells divide.
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我們可能在不久的將來，
16:06
We may not be that far --
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1957
或許十年，或許二十年，
16:09
call it a decade, maybe two decades --
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16:12
from generating life from scratch
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自原始共同體中
從無到有製出生命來。
從無到有製出生命來。
16:16
out of proto-communities.
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第二個長期趨勢是：
16:19
Second long-term trend:
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我們已經和正在經歷數位時代，
16:22
we've been living and are living
through the digital age --
through the digital age --
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3526
開始經歷基因時代、
16:25
we're starting to live through
the age of the genome
the age of the genome
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生物學、 CRISPR，
和合成生物學的年代，
和合成生物學的年代，
16:28
and biology and CRISPR
and synthetic biology --
and synthetic biology --
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所有這些都將融入大腦的年代。
16:32
and all of that is going to merge
into the age of the brain.
into the age of the brain.
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我們即將進入可以重建
大部分身體部位的時期。
大部分身體部位的時期。
16:36
So we're getting to the point where
we can rebuild most of our body parts,
we can rebuild most of our body parts,
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16:40
in the same way as if you break a bone
or burn your skin, it regrows.
or burn your skin, it regrows.
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就像你斷了的骨頭
或燒傷的皮膚會再生，
或燒傷的皮膚會再生，
我們開始學習
如何重新生出我們的氣管，
如何重新生出我們的氣管，
16:44
We're beginning to learn
how to regrow our tracheas
how to regrow our tracheas
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或如何重新生出我們的膀胱。
16:47
or how to regrow our bladders.
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16:49
Both of those have been
implanted in humans.
implanted in humans.
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這兩個都已經被移植到人體。
16:51
Tony Atala is working on
32 different organs.
32 different organs.
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托尼·阿塔拉正努力造出
32 種不同的器官。
32 種不同的器官。
但這才是核心，
16:55
But the core is going to be this,
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因為核心是你，其餘的都只是包裝。
16:57
because this is you
and the rest is just packaging.
and the rest is just packaging.
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17:02
Nobody's going to live beyond
120, 130, 140 years
120, 130, 140 years
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沒有人會活過120 歲、
130 歲或 140 年歲，
130 歲或 140 年歲，
17:05
unless if we fix this.
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除非我們解決這個問題。
17:08
And that's the most interesting challenge.
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這是最有趣的挑戰。
這開疆拓土伴隨著：
17:10
That's the next frontier, along with:
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「宇宙中的生命有多普遍呢？」
17:12
"How common is life in the universe?"
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17:14
"Where did we come from?"
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「我們從哪裡來？」
17:16
and questions like that.
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和像那樣的問題。
17:20
Let me end this with
an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
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3190
讓我引述杜撰的
愛因斯坦話語來總結：
愛因斯坦話語來總結：
17:23
[You can live as if
everything is a miracle,
everything is a miracle,
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2219
【你可以把一切當奇蹟來活，
17:25
or you can live as if
nothing is a miracle.]
nothing is a miracle.]
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也可以無視任何奇蹟。】
17:28
It's your choice.
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這是你的選擇。
17:30
You can focus on the bad,
you can focus on the scary,
you can focus on the scary,
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你可以專注於壞事，可怕之事，
17:33
and certainly there's
a lot of scary out there.
a lot of scary out there.
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可怕之事的確存在。
17:36
But use 10 percent of your brain
to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent,
to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent,
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但用你大腦的 10%、20％
或者 30％ 來專注這個問題。
17:40
or maybe 30 percent.
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17:43
But just remember,
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但請記住，
17:45
we really are living in an age
of miracle and wonder.
of miracle and wonder.
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我們確實生活在
一個充滿奇蹟和神奇的時代。
一個充滿奇蹟和神奇的時代。
17:48
We're lucky to be alive today.
We're lucky to see this stuff.
We're lucky to see this stuff.
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我們有幸今天還能活著，
看到這些東西。
看到這些東西。
17:51
We're lucky to be able to interact
with folks like the folks
with folks like the folks
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我們很幸運能夠
與這個房間裡那些正在建設
所有東西的人互動。
所有東西的人互動。
17:54
who are building
all the stuff in this room.
all the stuff in this room.
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17:57
So thank you to all of you,
for all you do.
for all you do.
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謝謝你們所有人，和所做的一切。
18:01
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com