TEDxCERN
Juan Enriquez: The age of genetic wonder
Huan Enrikez (Juan Enriquez): Vreme genetičkih čuda
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Alati za genetsko uređivanje kao što je CRISPR omogućavaju nam da programiramo život od najosnovnijeg nivoa. Ali ovo donosi neka goruća pitanja: ako možemo da stvorimo novu vrstu od nule, šta treba da napravimo? Da li treba da redizajniramo čovečanstvo? Huan Enrikez predviđa moguće varijante razvoja događaja genetskog uređivanja, istražujući neizvesnost i šanse ovog novog pomeranja granica.
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So let me with start with Roy Amara.
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Dozvolite mi da počnem sa Rojom Amarom.
00:16
Roy's argument is that most new
technologies tend to be overestimated
technologies tend to be overestimated
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Roj tvrdi da je većina
novih tehnoloških dostignuća precenjena
novih tehnoloških dostignuća precenjena
00:20
in their impact to begin with,
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na početku u smislu njihovog uticaja,
00:22
and then they get underestimated
in the long term
in the long term
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a onda dugoročno bivaju potcenjeni
zato što se naviknemo na njih.
00:25
because we get used to them.
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Ovo je stvarno doba čuda.
00:26
These really are days
of miracle and wonder.
of miracle and wonder.
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00:29
You remember that wonderful
song by Paul Simon?
song by Paul Simon?
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Sećate li se one divne pesme Pola Sajmona?
00:32
There were two lines in it.
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Imala je dva stiha.
00:33
So what was it that was considered
miraculous back then?
miraculous back then?
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Šta se to u ono vreme smatralo čudesnim?
00:38
Slowing down things -- slow motion --
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Usporavanje stvari - usporen film,
00:41
and the long-distance call.
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i međunarodni telefonski pozivi.
00:43
Because, of course, you used
to get interrupted by operators
to get interrupted by operators
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Zato što ste, naravno, navikli
da vas operater prekida
da vas operater prekida
sa pitanjem: „Međunarodni poziv.
Da li želite da prekinete?”
Da li želite da prekinete?”
00:46
who'd tell you, "Long distance calling.
Do you want to hang up?"
Do you want to hang up?"
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A sada nam zvanje po celom svetu
ne predstavlja ništa.
ne predstavlja ništa.
00:49
And now we think nothing of calling
all over the world.
all over the world.
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00:53
Well, something similar may be happening
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Nešto slično možda se dešava
00:55
with reading and programming life.
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i sa očitavanjem i programiranjem života.
00:58
But before I unpack that,
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No, pre nego što otkrijem to,
01:01
let's just talk about telescopes.
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hajde da pričamo o teleskopima.
01:04
Telescopes were overestimated
originally in their impact.
originally in their impact.
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Teleskopi su na početku bili precenjeni
u pogledu njihovog uticaja.
u pogledu njihovog uticaja.
01:09
This is one of Galileo's early models.
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Ovo je jedan od Galilejovih ranih modela.
01:12
People thought it was just
going to ruin all religion.
going to ruin all religion.
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Ljudi su mislili
da će uništiti sve religije.
da će uništiti sve religije.
01:15
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:18
So we're not paying that much
attention to telescopes.
attention to telescopes.
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Dakle, ne obraćamo
mnogo pažnju na teleskope.
mnogo pažnju na teleskope.
01:22
But, of course, telescopes launched
10 years ago, as you just heard,
10 years ago, as you just heard,
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Naravno, teleskopi koji su proizvedeni
pre deset godina, kao što ste čuli,
pre deset godina, kao što ste čuli,
01:26
could take this Volkswagen,
fly it to the moon,
fly it to the moon,
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mogu na ovom folksvagenu
koji je odleteo do Meseca,
koji je odleteo do Meseca,
01:29
and you could see the lights
on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
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videti farove kada se upale na Mesecu.
01:36
And that's the kind of resolution power
that allowed you to see
that allowed you to see
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To je rezolucija
koja vam dozvoljava da vidite
koja vam dozvoljava da vidite
01:40
little specks of dust
floating around distant suns.
floating around distant suns.
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male čestice prašine
koje plutaju oko udaljenih sunca.
koje plutaju oko udaljenih sunca.
01:44
Imagine for a second that this
was a sun a billion light years away,
was a sun a billion light years away,
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Zamislite na trenutak da je ovo sunce
udaljeno milijardu svetlosnih godina
udaljeno milijardu svetlosnih godina
01:48
and you had a little speck of dust
that came in front of it.
that came in front of it.
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i vidite male čestice prašine
kako dolaze ispred njega.
kako dolaze ispred njega.
01:51
That's what detecting
an exoplanet is like.
an exoplanet is like.
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Tako izgleda otkrivanje egzoplanete.
01:55
And the cool thing is, the telescopes
that are now being launched
that are now being launched
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Dobra stvar kod ovih novih teleskopa
02:00
would allow you to see
a single candle lit on the moon.
a single candle lit on the moon.
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je što vam dozvoljavaju da vidite
i sveću zapaljenu na mesecu.
i sveću zapaljenu na mesecu.
02:04
And if you separated it by one plate,
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Ako napravite razdvajanje jednom pločom,
02:07
you could see two candles
separately at that distance.
separately at that distance.
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videćete dve odvojene sveće
na toj udaljenosti.
na toj udaljenosti.
02:11
And that's the kind
of resolution that you need
of resolution that you need
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To je rezolucija koja vam je potrebna
02:13
to begin to image
that little speck of dust
that little speck of dust
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da vidite te male čestice prašine
02:16
as it comes around the sun
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kako kruže oko sunca
02:17
and see if it has a blue-green signature.
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i da vidite imaju li plavo-zeleni obris.
02:21
And if it does have
a blue-green signature,
a blue-green signature,
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Ako imaju plavo-zeleni obris,
to znači da je život svuda u svemiru.
02:23
it means that life
is common in the universe.
is common in the universe.
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02:25
The first time you ever see a blue-green
signature on a distant planet,
signature on a distant planet,
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Prvi put kada vidite
plavo-zeleni obris na udaljenoj planeti,
plavo-zeleni obris na udaljenoj planeti,
02:29
it means there's photosynthesis there,
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to znači da tamo postoji fotosinteza,
02:31
there's water there,
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da tamo ima vode,
02:33
and the chances that you saw
the only other planet with photosynthesis
the only other planet with photosynthesis
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a šansa da vidite samo jednu
planetu sa fotosintezom
planetu sa fotosintezom
02:36
are about zero.
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je jednaka nuli.
02:39
And that's a calendar-changing event.
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A to je događaj koji menja sve.
02:41
There's a before and after
we were alone in the universe:
we were alone in the universe:
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Postoji vreme pre i vreme nakon
što smo mislili da smo sami u svemiru;
što smo mislili da smo sami u svemiru;
02:44
forget about the discovery
of whatever continent.
of whatever continent.
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zaboravite na otkrića bilo kog kontinenta.
02:48
So as you're thinking about this,
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Dok razmišljate o ovom,
02:50
we're now beginning
to be able to image most of the universe.
to be able to image most of the universe.
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sada smo u mogućnosti
da vidimo veći deo svemira.
da vidimo veći deo svemira.
To jeste vreme čuda,
02:53
And that is a time of miracle and wonder.
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02:55
And we kind of take that for granted.
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a mi to olako prihvatamo.
02:59
Something similar is happening in life.
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Nešto slično se dešava i sa životom.
03:01
So we're hearing about life
in these little bits and pieces.
in these little bits and pieces.
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Slušamo o životu u tim
malim delovima i komadićima,
malim delovima i komadićima,
03:04
We hear about CRISPR,
and we hear about this technology,
and we hear about this technology,
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slušamo o CRISPR-u,
i slušamo o ovoj i onoj tehnologiji.
03:07
and we hear about this technology.
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Ali suština je da je život ispao kod.
03:08
But the bottom line on life
is that life turns out to be code.
is that life turns out to be code.
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03:13
And life as code is a really
important concept because it means,
important concept because it means,
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A posmatranje života kroz kod
je veoma značajan koncept,
je veoma značajan koncept,
zato što to znači da,
kao što pišete rečenice
kao što pišete rečenice
03:17
just in the same way
as you can write a sentence
as you can write a sentence
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03:21
in English or in French or Chinese,
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na engleskom, francuskom
ili kineskom jeziku,
ili kineskom jeziku,
03:25
just in the same way
as you can copy a sentence,
as you can copy a sentence,
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baš kao što možete prepisati rečenicu,
03:28
just in the same way
as you can edit a sentence,
as you can edit a sentence,
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isto kao što možete izmeniti rečenicu,
03:30
just in the same way
as you can print a sentence,
as you can print a sentence,
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na potpuno isti način
kao što štampate rečenice,
kao što štampate rečenice,
03:33
you're beginning to be able
to do that with life.
to do that with life.
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sada postaje moguće
da isto to radite sa životom.
da isto to radite sa životom.
03:37
It means that we're beginning
to learn how to read this language.
to learn how to read this language.
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To znači da počinjemo da učimo
kako se čita ovaj jezik.
kako se čita ovaj jezik.
03:40
And this, of course, is the language
that is used by this orange.
that is used by this orange.
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A to je jezik koji koristi ova narandža.
03:44
So how does this orange execute code?
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Kako ova narandža izvršava kod?
03:46
It doesn't do it in ones and zeroes
like a computer does.
like a computer does.
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Ne radi to kao kompjuteri
sa jedinicama i nulama.
sa jedinicama i nulama.
03:49
It sits on a tree, and one day it does:
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Visi na drvetu i jednog dana uradi -
03:51
plop!
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plop!
03:52
And that means: execute.
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To znači - izvršiti.
03:55
AATCAAG: make me a little root.
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AATCAAG: napravi mi mali koren.
03:59
TCGACC: make me a little stem.
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TCGACC: napravi mi malu stabljiku.
04:01
GAC: make me some leaves.
AGC: make me some flowers.
AGC: make me some flowers.
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GAC: napravi mi lišća.
AGC: napravi mi cvetove.
AGC: napravi mi cvetove.
04:05
And then GCAA: make me some more oranges.
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i onda GCAA: napravi mi još narandži.
04:08
If I edit a sentence in English
on a word processor,
on a word processor,
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Ako stavim rečenicu na engleskom
u procesor za reči,
u procesor za reči,
04:15
then what happens is you can go
from this word to that word.
from this word to that word.
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onda možete da se prebacujete
sa jedne reči na drugu.
sa jedne reči na drugu.
04:20
If I edit something in this orange
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Ako nešto dodam ovoj narandži
04:22
and put in GCAAC, using CRISPR
or something else that you've heard of,
or something else that you've heard of,
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i stavim GCAAC, koristeći CRISPR
ili nešto drugo za šta ste čuli,
ili nešto drugo za šta ste čuli,
04:28
then this orange becomes a lemon,
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onda ova narandža postaje limun,
04:30
or it becomes a grapefruit,
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ili grejpfrut,
04:32
or it becomes a tangerine.
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ili mandarina.
04:35
And if I edit one in a thousand letters,
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A ako promenim jedno od hiljadu slova,
04:37
you become the person
sitting next to you today.
sitting next to you today.
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postaćete osoba koja danas sedi pored vas.
04:40
Be more careful where you sit.
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Budite oprezniji gde sedate.
04:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:45
What's happening on this stuff
is it was really expensive to begin with.
is it was really expensive to begin with.
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Stvar je u tome da je na početku
ovo bio veoma skup proces.
ovo bio veoma skup proces.
04:48
It was like long-distance calls.
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Kao nekada međunarodni pozivi.
04:51
But the cost of this is dropping
50 percent faster than Moore's law.
50 percent faster than Moore's law.
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Ali cena ovoga pada 50 procenata
brže od Murovog zakona.
brže od Murovog zakona.
04:55
The first $200 full genome
was announced yesterday by Veritas.
was announced yesterday by Veritas.
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Kompanija Veritas je juče najavila
prvi potpuni genom od 200 dolara.
prvi potpuni genom od 200 dolara.
05:00
And so as you're looking at these systems,
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Dok gledate ove sisteme, mislite:
05:02
it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter,
it doesn't matter, and then it does.
it doesn't matter, and then it does.
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ovo nije važno, ni ovo,
ni ovo nije važno - a ipak jeste.
ni ovo nije važno - a ipak jeste.
05:06
So let me just give you
the map view of this stuff.
the map view of this stuff.
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Dozvolite da vam pokažem mapu ovoga.
05:10
This is a big discovery.
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Ovo je veliko otkriće.
05:13
There's 23 chromosomes.
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Tu su 23 hromozoma.
05:15
Cool.
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Kul.
05:17
Let's now start using a telescope version,
but instead of using a telescope,
but instead of using a telescope,
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Hajde sada da iskoristimo
teleskopski pogled,
teleskopski pogled,
ali umesto teleskopa,
koristićemo mikroskop da zumiramo
koristićemo mikroskop da zumiramo
05:20
let's use a microscope to zoom in
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05:23
on the inferior of those chromosomes,
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površinu podređene među hromozomima
05:25
which is the Y chromosome.
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odnosno, hromozom Y.
05:28
It's a third the size of the X.
It's recessive and mutant.
It's recessive and mutant.
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On je veličine trećine hromozoma X,
recesivan i mutiran.
recesivan i mutiran.
05:32
But hey,
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Ali ipak,
05:34
just a male.
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to je samo muškarac.
05:36
And as you're looking at this stuff,
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Dok posmatrate ovo,
05:39
here's kind of a country view
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evo neke vrste širokog pogleda
05:42
at a 400 base pair resolution level,
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sa rezolucijom od 400 baznih parova,
05:44
and then you zoom in to 550,
and then you zoom in to 850,
and then you zoom in to 850,
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zatim zumirate na 550,
zatim zumirate na 850,
zatim zumirate na 850,
05:48
and you can begin to identify
more and more genes as you zoom in.
more and more genes as you zoom in.
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i sa svakim zumiranjem možete
da identifikujete sve više i više gena.
da identifikujete sve više i više gena.
05:52
Then you zoom in to the state level,
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Onda još zumirate
05:55
and you can begin to tell
who's got leukemia,
who's got leukemia,
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i možete videti ko ima leukemiju,
05:59
how did they get leukemia,
what kind of leukemia do they have,
what kind of leukemia do they have,
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kako su dobili leukemiju,
koju vrstu leukemije imaju,
koju vrstu leukemije imaju,
šta se promenilo sa jednog na drugo mesto.
06:02
what shifted from what place
to what place.
to what place.
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06:05
And then you zoom in
to the Google street view level.
to the Google street view level.
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Onda zumirate na nivo
Guglovog uličnog pogleda.
Guglovog uličnog pogleda.
06:09
So this is what happens
if you have colorectal cancer
if you have colorectal cancer
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Evo šta se dešava
ako imate rak debelog creva,
ako imate rak debelog creva,
06:12
for a very specific patient
on the letter-by-letter resolution.
on the letter-by-letter resolution.
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kod konkretnog pacijenta
u rezoluciji slovo po slovo.
u rezoluciji slovo po slovo.
06:18
So what we're doing in this stuff
is we're gathering information
is we're gathering information
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Ono što mi ovde radimo
je skupljanje informacija
je skupljanje informacija
06:21
and just generating
enormous amounts of information.
enormous amounts of information.
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i generisanje ogromne količine istih.
06:23
This is one of the largest
databases on the planet
databases on the planet
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To je jedna od najvećih
baza podataka na zemlji
baza podataka na zemlji
06:26
and it's growing faster
than we can build computers to store it.
than we can build computers to store it.
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i raste brže nego što možemo napraviti
kompjutere za njeno skladištenje.
kompjutere za njeno skladištenje.
06:32
You can create some incredible
maps with this stuff.
maps with this stuff.
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Sa ovim možete napraviti
neverovatne mape.
neverovatne mape.
06:35
You want to understand the plague
and why one plague is bubonic
and why one plague is bubonic
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Želite da razumete kugu,
zašto je jedna bubonske vrste,
zašto je jedna bubonske vrste,
06:38
and the other one
is a different kind of plague
is a different kind of plague
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druga je drugačije vrste
a i treća je drugačija vrsta kuge?
06:40
and the other one
is a different kind of plague?
is a different kind of plague?
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Evo mape kuge.
06:42
Well, here's a map of the plague.
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06:45
Some are absolutely deadly to humans,
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Neke su apsolutno smrtonosne za ljude,
dok druge nisu.
06:46
some are not.
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06:48
And note, by the way,
as you go to the bottom of this,
as you go to the bottom of this,
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Obratite pažnju pri kraju dok gledate ovo,
kako izgleda u poređenju sa tuberkulozom?
06:51
how does it compare to tuberculosis?
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06:53
So this is the difference between
tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
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Ovo je razlika između tuberkuloze
i raznih vrsta kuge.
i raznih vrsta kuge.
06:57
and you can play detective
with this stuff,
with this stuff,
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Možete se igrati detektiva,
06:59
because you can take
a very specific kind of cholera
a very specific kind of cholera
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zato što možete uzeti
veoma specifičnu vrstu kolere
veoma specifičnu vrstu kolere
07:02
that affected Haiti,
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koja je pogodila Haiti,
07:04
and you can look at
which country it came from,
which country it came from,
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i možete videti iz koje zemlje je došla,
07:07
which region it came from,
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iz kog regiona,
07:09
and probably which soldier took that
from that African country to Haiti.
from that African country to Haiti.
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i verovatno koji ju je vojnik doneo
iz te afričke zemlje na Haiti.
iz te afričke zemlje na Haiti.
07:17
Zoom out.
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Smanjivanje rezolucije.
07:18
It's not just zooming in.
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Ne radi se samo povećanje.
07:21
This is one of the coolest maps
ever done by human beings.
ever done by human beings.
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Ovo je jedna od najboljih mapa
koje je čovek ikada napravio.
koje je čovek ikada napravio.
07:24
What they've done is taken
all the genetic information they have
all the genetic information they have
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Oni su prikupili sve genetičke
informacije koje su imali
informacije koje su imali
07:27
about all the species,
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o svim vrstama,
07:29
and they've put a tree of life
on a single page
on a single page
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i napravili drvo života na jednoj stranici
07:32
that you can zoom in and out of.
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koju možete smanjivati ili povećavati.
Ovo nam daje pregled šta je nastalo prvo,
kako je postalo različito, kako se granalo
kako je postalo različito, kako se granalo
07:34
So this is what came first,
how did it diversify, how did it branch,
how did it diversify, how did it branch,
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07:38
how large is that genome,
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i koliko je velik taj genom,
07:39
on a single page.
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sve na jednoj stranici.
07:41
It's kind of the universe
of life on Earth,
of life on Earth,
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To je neka vrsta svemira života na zemlji,
07:43
and it's being constantly
updated and completed.
updated and completed.
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koji se neprekidno dopunjava i dovršava.
07:46
And so as you're looking at this stuff,
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Dok gledate sve ovo,
07:48
the really important change is
the old biology used to be reactive.
the old biology used to be reactive.
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jako bitna promena je ta
da je stara biologija bila reaktivna.
da je stara biologija bila reaktivna.
07:52
You used to have a lot of biologists
that had microscopes,
that had microscopes,
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Imali ste puno biologa sa mikroskopima,
07:54
and they had magnifying glasses
and they were out observing animals.
and they were out observing animals.
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imali su lupe, šetali su naokolo
i posmatrali životinje.
i posmatrali životinje.
07:58
The new biology is proactive.
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Nova biologija je proaktivna.
08:01
You don't just observe stuff,
you make stuff.
you make stuff.
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Više niste samo posmatrač,
sada pravite nešto.
sada pravite nešto.
08:05
And that's a really big change
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To je zaista velika promena
08:06
because it allows us
to do things like this.
to do things like this.
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zato što nam ona omogućava
da radimo stvari kao što je ova.
da radimo stvari kao što je ova.
08:10
And I know you're really
excited by this picture.
excited by this picture.
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Znam da ste uzbuđeni zbog ove slike.
08:13
(Laughter)
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1111
(Smeh)
08:14
It only took us four years
and 40 million dollars
and 40 million dollars
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Trebalo nam je samo četiri godine
i 40 miliona dolara
i 40 miliona dolara
08:16
to be able to take this picture.
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da bismo napravili ovu fotografiju.
08:18
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:19
And what we did
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487463
1371
A ono što smo uradili
08:21
is we took the full gene code
out of a cell --
out of a cell --
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je da smo uzeli
celokupni kod gena iz ćelije -
celokupni kod gena iz ćelije -
08:24
not a gene, not two genes,
the full gene code out of a cell --
the full gene code out of a cell --
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ne jedan gen, ne dva gena,
ceo genetski kod iz ćelije -
ceo genetski kod iz ćelije -
08:30
built a completely new gene code,
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napravili potpuno novi genetski kod,
08:32
inserted it into the cell,
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utisnuli ga u ćeliju,
08:34
figured out a way to have the cell
execute that code
execute that code
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našli način da ćelija izvrši taj kod
08:37
and built a completely new species.
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i izgradili potpuno novu vrstu.
08:40
So this is the world's first
synthetic life form.
synthetic life form.
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Ovo je prvi sintetički
oblik života na svetu.
oblik života na svetu.
08:45
And so what do you do with this stuff?
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I šta raditi sa tim?
08:48
Well, this stuff is going
to change the world.
to change the world.
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Ovo je nešto što će promeniti svet.
08:51
Let me give you three short-term trends
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Reći ću vam tri kratkoročna trenda
08:53
in terms of how it's going
to change the world.
to change the world.
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u smislu kako će promeniti svet.
08:56
The first is we're going to see
a new industrial revolution.
a new industrial revolution.
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Prvo, videćemo novu
industrijsku revoluciju.
industrijsku revoluciju.
08:59
And I actually mean that literally.
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I to mislim bukvalno.
09:01
So in the same way as Switzerland
and Germany and Britain
and Germany and Britain
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Na isti način na koji su Švajcarska,
Nemačka i Velika Britanija
Nemačka i Velika Britanija
09:06
changed the world with machines
like the one you see in this lobby,
like the one you see in this lobby,
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534507
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promenile svet mašinama
sličnim onima koje vidite ovde u holu,
sličnim onima koje vidite ovde u holu,
09:11
created power --
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i stvorile moć -
09:13
in the same way CERN
is changing the world,
is changing the world,
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2664
na isti način kao što CERN menja svet,
09:15
using new instruments
and our concept of the universe --
and our concept of the universe --
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koristeći nove instrumente
i naš koncept svemira -
i naš koncept svemira -
09:20
programmable life forms
are also going to change the world
are also going to change the world
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životni oblici koje možemo programirati
takođe će promeniti svet,
takođe će promeniti svet,
09:23
because once you can program cells
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jer kada možete da programirate ćeliju
09:25
in the same way as you
program your computer chip,
program your computer chip,
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isto kao što programirate
kompjuterski čip,
kompjuterski čip,
09:29
then you can make almost anything.
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tada možete napraviti bilo šta.
09:32
So your computer chip
can produce photographs,
can produce photographs,
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Vaš kompjuterski čip
može praviti fotografije,
može praviti fotografije,
09:35
can produce music, can produce film,
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može praviti muziku ili film,
09:37
can produce love letters,
can produce spreadsheets.
can produce spreadsheets.
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može praviti ljubavna pisma ili tabele.
Sve to samo sa nulama i jedinicama
koje proleću tamo.
koje proleću tamo.
09:39
It's just ones and zeroes
flying through there.
flying through there.
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09:42
If you can flow ATCGs through cells,
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Ako ATCG-ovi mogu da rade u ćelijama
09:46
then this software makes its own hardware,
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3054
onda ovaj softver sam sebi pravi hardver,
09:49
which means it scales very quickly.
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što znači da se razvija veoma brzo.
09:52
No matter what happens,
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1651
Bez obzira šta se desilo,
09:54
if you leave your cell phone
by your bedside,
by your bedside,
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2158
ako ostavite mobilni telefon
pored kreveta,
pored kreveta,
09:56
you will not have a billion
cell phones in the morning.
cell phones in the morning.
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2586
nećete imati milijardu telefona ujutro.
09:59
But if you do that with living organisms,
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Ali ako to uradite sa živim organizmom,
10:05
you can make this stuff
at a very large scale.
at a very large scale.
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2389
možete napraviti nešto velikih proporcija.
10:09
One of the things you can do
is you can start producing
is you can start producing
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2896
Jedna od stvari koje možete da uradite
je da počnete proizvodnju
je da počnete proizvodnju
10:12
close to carbon-neutral fuels
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2223
nečega sličnog ugljenično
neutralnom gorivu
neutralnom gorivu
10:14
on a commercial scale by 2025,
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602557
2426
za komercijalnu upotrebu do 2025. godine,
10:18
which we're doing with Exxon.
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što radimo sa kompanijom „Ekson“.
10:20
But you can also substitute
for agricultural lands.
for agricultural lands.
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Možete to koristiti kao zamenu
za obradivo zemljište.
za obradivo zemljište.
10:23
Instead of having 100 hectares
to make oils or to make proteins,
to make oils or to make proteins,
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Umesto da imate 100 hektara
da biste proizveli ulje ili proteine,
da biste proizveli ulje ili proteine,
10:28
you can make it in these vats
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možete ih praviti u ovim bazenima
10:29
at 10 or 100 times
the productivity per hectare.
the productivity per hectare.
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2868
sa 10 ili 100 puta većom
produktivnosti po hektaru.
produktivnosti po hektaru.
10:33
Or you can store information,
or you can make all the world's vaccines
or you can make all the world's vaccines
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3382
Možete skladištiti informacije
ili proizvesti sve vakcine na svetu
ili proizvesti sve vakcine na svetu
u ova tri bazena.
10:36
in those three vats.
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1299
10:39
Or you can store most of the information
that's held at CERN in those three vats.
that's held at CERN in those three vats.
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3949
Ili možete uskladištiti većinu informacija
koja se drži u CERN-u.
koja se drži u CERN-u.
10:44
DNA is a really powerful
information storage device.
information storage device.
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DNK je zaista veoma moćna naprava
za skladištenje informacija.
za skladištenje informacija.
10:48
Second turn:
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1588
Drugi preokret:
10:50
you're beginning to see the rise
of theoretical biology.
of theoretical biology.
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2784
počinjete da uviđate uspon
teorijske biologije.
teorijske biologije.
10:54
So, medical school departments are one
of the most conservative places on earth.
of the most conservative places on earth.
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Odeljenja medicinskih škola su među
najkonzervativnijim mestima na zemlji.
najkonzervativnijim mestima na zemlji.
10:58
The way they teach anatomy is similar
to the way they taught anatomy
to the way they taught anatomy
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Način na koji predaju anatomiju
je sličan načinu na koji su je predavali
je sličan načinu na koji su je predavali
11:01
100 years ago.
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pre 100 godina.
11:03
"Welcome, student. Here's your cadaver."
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2024
„Dobrodošli, studenti. Evo vam leš.”
11:06
One of the things medical schools are
not good at is creating new departments,
not good at is creating new departments,
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3707
Ono u čemu medicinske škole nisu vične
jeste stvaranje novih odeljenja,
jeste stvaranje novih odeljenja,
zbog toga je sve ovo veoma neobično.
11:09
which is why this is so unusual.
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1749
11:12
Isaac Kohane has now created a department
based on informatics, data, knowledge
based on informatics, data, knowledge
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660351
6498
Isak Kohen je sada otvorio odeljenje
koje se bazira na informatici,
koje se bazira na informatici,
podacima i znanju na Harvardskom
medicinskom fakultetu.
medicinskom fakultetu.
11:18
at Harvard Medical School.
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11:21
And in a sense,
what's beginning to happen is
what's beginning to happen is
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2177
Na neki način, počelo je da se dešava
11:23
biology is beginning to get enough data
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2482
da biologija počinje da dobija
dovoljno podataka
dovoljno podataka
11:26
that it can begin to follow
the steps of physics,
the steps of physics,
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674115
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tako da može da krene stopama fizike,
11:28
which used to be observational physics
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3388
koja je prvo bila samo posmatračka,
11:32
and experimental physicists,
222
680317
1971
pa eksperimentalna,
11:34
and then started creating
theoretical biology.
theoretical biology.
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2162
a onda je počela da stvara
teorijsku biologiju.
teorijsku biologiju.
11:36
Well, that's what you're beginning to see
224
684498
2004
To je ono što počinjete da viđate
11:38
because you have so many medical records,
225
686526
1980
zato što sada imate
toliko medicinskih podataka,
toliko medicinskih podataka,
11:40
because you have
so much data about people:
so much data about people:
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2032
toliko podataka o ljudima,
imate njihove genome,
imate njihove viruse,
imate njihove viruse,
11:42
you've got their genomes,
you've got their viromes,
you've got their viromes,
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2410
imate njihove mikrobiome.
11:45
you've got their microbiomes.
228
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1494
11:46
And as this information stacks,
229
694538
1981
I dok se ove informacije gomilaju,
11:48
you can begin to make predictions.
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696543
2063
možete početi sa predviđanjima.
11:52
The third thing that's happening
is this is coming to the consumer.
is this is coming to the consumer.
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3255
Treća stvar koja se dešava
je da to dolazi do potrošača.
je da to dolazi do potrošača.
11:56
So you, too, can get your genes sequenced.
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Tako da i vi možete dobiti
analizu svojih gena.
analizu svojih gena.
12:01
And this is beginning to create
companies like 23andMe,
companies like 23andMe,
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709698
2728
Ovo je početak stvaranja
kompanija kao što je „23 i ja”,
kompanija kao što je „23 i ja”,
12:04
and companies like 23andMe
are going to be giving you
are going to be giving you
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2478
a one će vam davati
12:06
more and more and more data,
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1352
sve više i više podataka,
12:08
not just about your relatives,
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1544
ne samo o vašim rođacima,
12:10
but about you and your body,
237
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1360
nego i o vašem telu,
12:11
and it's going to compare stuff,
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1531
porediće stvari,
porediće ih kroz vreme,
12:13
and it's going
to compare stuff across time,
to compare stuff across time,
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2093
i to će postati veoma
velika baza podataka.
velika baza podataka.
12:15
and these are going to become
very large databases.
very large databases.
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2607
12:18
But it's also beginning to affect
a series of other businesses
a series of other businesses
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2962
Ovo će takođe uticati
i na niz drugih poslova
i na niz drugih poslova
12:21
in unexpected ways.
242
729235
1537
na veoma neočekivane načine.
12:23
Normally, when you advertise something,
you really don't want the consumer
you really don't want the consumer
243
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3751
Obično kada reklamirate nešto,
ne želite da vaš potrošač
ne želite da vaš potrošač
12:27
to take your advertisement
into the bathroom to pee on.
into the bathroom to pee on.
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4567
odnese reklamni letak u kupatilo
i popiški se na njega.
i popiški se na njega.
12:33
Unless, of course, if you're IKEA.
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741993
2055
Naravno, osim ako niste IKEA.
12:37
Because when you rip this
out of a magazine and you pee on it,
out of a magazine and you pee on it,
246
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2906
Ako ovo iscepite iz časopisa
i popiškite se na to,
i popiškite se na to,
12:40
it'll turn blue if you're pregnant.
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2069
ono će poplaviti ako ste trudni.
12:42
(Laughter)
248
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1213
(Smeh)
12:44
And they'll give you
a discount on your crib.
a discount on your crib.
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3873
I oni će vam dati popust na kolevku.
12:48
(Laughter)
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1158
(Smeh)
12:49
Right? So when I say consumer empowerment,
251
757293
2015
Kada kažem osnaživanje potrošača,
12:51
and this is spreading beyond biotech,
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2739
a ovo prevazilazi biotehniku,
12:54
I actually really mean that.
253
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1819
zaista to i mislim.
12:58
We're now beginning to produce,
at Synthetic Genomics,
at Synthetic Genomics,
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3365
Trenutno počinjemo sa proizvodnjom,
u kompaniji „Sintetička genomika”,
u kompaniji „Sintetička genomika”,
13:02
desktop printers
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770540
1471
štampača
13:05
that allow you to design a cell,
256
773228
3530
koji vam omogućavaju da kreirate ćeliju,
13:08
print a cell,
257
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1167
odštampate je,
13:09
execute the program on the cell.
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1845
i unesete program u ćeliju.
13:12
We can now print vaccines
259
780825
2103
Sada možemo odštampati vakcine
13:14
real time as an airplane takes off
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2247
u realnom vremenu,
od momenta poletanja aviona
od momenta poletanja aviona
13:17
before it lands.
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1190
pre nego što sleti.
13:19
We're shipping 78
of these machines this year.
of these machines this year.
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2572
Ove godine šaljemo 78 ovakvih mašina.
13:24
This is not theoretical biology.
This is printing biology.
This is printing biology.
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4473
Ovo nije teorijska biologija.
Ovo je štamparska biologija.
Ovo je štamparska biologija.
13:30
Let me talk about two long-term trends
264
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2196
Reći ću vam dva dugoročna trenda
13:33
that are coming at you
over a longer time period.
over a longer time period.
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3326
koja će nastupiti
u dužem vremenskom periodu.
u dužem vremenskom periodu.
13:37
The first one is, we're starting
to redesign species.
to redesign species.
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2656
Prvo, počećemo sa redizajniranjem vrsta.
13:41
And you've heard about that, right?
267
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1777
Čuli ste za to, zar ne?
13:42
We're redesigning trees.
We're redesigning flowers.
We're redesigning flowers.
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2681
Redizajniramo drveće i cveće.
13:45
We're redesigning yogurt,
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2293
Redizajniramo jogurt,
13:48
cheese, whatever else you want.
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2030
sir i šta god drugo vam padne na pamet.
13:51
And that, of course,
brings up the interesting question:
brings up the interesting question:
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2650
A ovo donosi interesantno pitanje:
13:54
How and when should we redesign humans?
272
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2336
kako i kada ćemo redizajnirati ljude?
13:59
And a lot of us think,
"Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
"Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
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827566
3557
Mnogi od nas misle: „Ma ne,
nećemo nikad redizajnirati ljude.”
nećemo nikad redizajnirati ljude.”
14:04
Unless, of course, if your child
has a Huntington's gene
has a Huntington's gene
274
832147
2715
Osim ukoliko npr. vaše dete
nema Hantingtonov gen
nema Hantingtonov gen
14:06
and is condemned to death.
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1389
i osuđeno je na smrt.
14:09
Or, unless if you're passing on
a cystic fibrosis gene,
a cystic fibrosis gene,
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3363
Ili ukoliko ste prenosilac
gena cistične fibroze.
gena cistične fibroze.
14:12
in which case, you don't just want
to redesign yourself,
to redesign yourself,
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U tom slučaju ne želite
samo sebe da redizajnirate,
samo sebe da redizajnirate,
nego i svoju decu i njihovu decu.
14:15
you want to redesign your children
and their children.
and their children.
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14:18
And these are complicated debates
and they're going to happen in real time.
and they're going to happen in real time.
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Ovo su komplikovane rasprave
i dešavaće se uskoro.
i dešavaće se uskoro.
14:22
I'll give you one current example.
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Daću vam jedan primer.
14:25
One of the debates going on
at the National Academies today
at the National Academies today
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Jedna od rasprava koje se danas
vode u nacionalnim akademijama je:
vode u nacionalnim akademijama je:
14:29
is you have the power to put
a gene drive into mosquitoes
a gene drive into mosquitoes
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imate mogućnost da umetnete
genetsku izmenu u komarce
genetsku izmenu u komarce
14:34
so that you will kill
all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
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tako da ubijete sve malarične komarce.
14:39
Now, some people say,
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Neki ljudi kažu:
14:42
"That's going to affect the environment
in an extreme way, don't do it."
in an extreme way, don't do it."
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„Ovo će uticati na ekološko okruženje
i to na ekstreman način. Ne radite to.”
i to na ekstreman način. Ne radite to.”
14:47
Other people say,
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Drugi kažu:
14:48
"This is one of the things
that's killing millions of people yearly.
that's killing millions of people yearly.
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„To je nešto što godišnje
ubija milione ljudi.
ubija milione ljudi.
14:51
Who are you to tell me
that I can't save the kids in my country?"
that I can't save the kids in my country?"
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Ko ste vi da mi kažete da ne mogu
da spasim decu u mojoj zemlji?”
da spasim decu u mojoj zemlji?”
14:57
And why is this debate so complicated?
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A zašto je ova rasprava tako komplikovana?
14:59
Because as soon as you
let this loose in Brazil
let this loose in Brazil
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Zato što, čim to uradite u Brazilu
15:01
or in Southern Florida --
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ili Južnoj Floridi,
15:03
mosquitoes don't respect walls.
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komarci neće poštovati granice.
15:04
You're making a decision for the world
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Vi donosite odluku za čitav svet
15:07
when you put a gene drive into the air.
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kada puštate genetski izmene u etar.
15:14
This wonderful man won a Nobel Prize,
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Ovaj divan čovek je dobio
Nobelovu nagradu,
Nobelovu nagradu,
15:17
and after winning the Nobel Prize
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i nakon što je dobio Nobelovu nagradu,
stalno je razmišljao
stalno je razmišljao
15:18
he's been worrying about
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15:21
how did life get started on this planet
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kako je život počeo na ovoj planeti
15:23
and how likely is it
that it's in other places?
that it's in other places?
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i kolika je verovatnoća
da postoji i na drugim mestima?
da postoji i na drugim mestima?
15:27
So what he's been doing is going around
to this graduate students
to this graduate students
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On je obilazio svoje studente
15:30
and saying to his graduate students,
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i govorio im:
15:32
"Build me life but don't use
any modern chemicals or instruments.
any modern chemicals or instruments.
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„Napravite mi život, ali bez korišćenja
modernih hemikalija ili instrumenata.
modernih hemikalija ili instrumenata.
15:36
Build me stuff that was here
three billion years ago.
three billion years ago.
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Napravite mi nešto što je postojalo
ovde pre tri milijarde godina.
ovde pre tri milijarde godina.
15:38
You can't use lasers.
You can't use this. You can't use that."
You can't use this. You can't use that."
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Ne možete da koristite lasere,
ne možete da koristite ovo, niti ono.”
ne možete da koristite ovo, niti ono.”
15:44
He gave me a vial of what he's built
about three weeks ago.
about three weeks ago.
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Pre tri nedelje dao mi je uzorak
onoga što je stvorio.
onoga što je stvorio.
15:48
What has he built?
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Šta je stvorio?
15:49
He's built basically what looked like
soap bubbles that are made out of lipids.
soap bubbles that are made out of lipids.
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Stvorio je nešto što je u osnovi izgledalo
kao sapunica koja se pravi od lipida.
kao sapunica koja se pravi od lipida.
15:53
He's built a precursor of RNA.
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Napravio je prethodnika RNA.
15:57
He's had the precursor of the RNA
be absorbed by the cell
be absorbed by the cell
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Imao je prethodnika RNA
apsorbovanog od strane ćelije,
apsorbovanog od strane ćelije,
16:02
and then he's had the cells divide.
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a onda su se ćelije podelile.
16:06
We may not be that far --
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Možda nismo toliko daleko,
16:09
call it a decade, maybe two decades --
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recimo deceniju ili dve,
16:12
from generating life from scratch
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od pravljenja života od nule
16:16
out of proto-communities.
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izvan protozajednica.
16:19
Second long-term trend:
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Drugi dugoročni trend:
16:22
we've been living and are living
through the digital age --
through the digital age --
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živeli smo i živimo u digitalnom dobu -
16:25
we're starting to live through
the age of the genome
the age of the genome
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počinjemo da živimo u dobu genoma,
biologije, CRISPR-a
i sintetičke biologije -
i sintetičke biologije -
16:28
and biology and CRISPR
and synthetic biology --
and synthetic biology --
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16:32
and all of that is going to merge
into the age of the brain.
into the age of the brain.
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a sve to će se spojiti u doba mozga.
16:36
So we're getting to the point where
we can rebuild most of our body parts,
we can rebuild most of our body parts,
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Dolazimo do tačke da možemo ponovo
napraviti veći deo naših delova tela
napraviti veći deo naših delova tela
16:40
in the same way as if you break a bone
or burn your skin, it regrows.
or burn your skin, it regrows.
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na isti način kao kad slomite kost
ili opečete kožu, a ona ponovo naraste.
ili opečete kožu, a ona ponovo naraste.
16:44
We're beginning to learn
how to regrow our tracheas
how to regrow our tracheas
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Počinjemo da učimo kako da obnovimo dušnik
16:47
or how to regrow our bladders.
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ili kako da obnovimo bešiku.
16:49
Both of those have been
implanted in humans.
implanted in humans.
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Oba organa su već ugrađena u ljude.
16:51
Tony Atala is working on
32 different organs.
32 different organs.
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Toni Atala radi na 32 organa.
16:55
But the core is going to be this,
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Ali suština je u ovome,
16:57
because this is you
and the rest is just packaging.
and the rest is just packaging.
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zato što ste to vi,
a sve ostalo je samo pakovanje.
a sve ostalo je samo pakovanje.
17:02
Nobody's going to live beyond
120, 130, 140 years
120, 130, 140 years
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Niko neće živeti
preko 120, 130 ili 140 godina
preko 120, 130 ili 140 godina
17:05
unless if we fix this.
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ako ne popravimo ovo.
17:08
And that's the most interesting challenge.
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A to je najinteresantniji izazov.
To je sledeće pomeranje
granica, zajedno sa:
granica, zajedno sa:
17:10
That's the next frontier, along with:
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17:12
"How common is life in the universe?"
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„Koliko je čest život u svemiru?”
17:14
"Where did we come from?"
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1806
„Odakle smo došli?”
17:16
and questions like that.
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i slična pitanja.
17:20
Let me end this with
an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
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Dozvolite mi da završim
navodno Ajnštajnovim citatom:
navodno Ajnštajnovim citatom:
17:23
[You can live as if
everything is a miracle,
everything is a miracle,
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(Možete živeti kao da je sve čudo,
17:25
or you can live as if
nothing is a miracle.]
nothing is a miracle.]
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ili kao da ništa nije čudo.)
17:28
It's your choice.
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Izbor je vaš.
17:30
You can focus on the bad,
you can focus on the scary,
you can focus on the scary,
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Možete se fokusirati na loše, na strašno,
17:33
and certainly there's
a lot of scary out there.
a lot of scary out there.
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a sigurno ima puno toga
zastrašujućeg u svetu.
zastrašujućeg u svetu.
17:36
But use 10 percent of your brain
to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent,
to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent,
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Ali koristite 10 procenata svog mozga
da se fokusirate na ovo, ili možda 20
da se fokusirate na ovo, ili možda 20
17:40
or maybe 30 percent.
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ili 30 procenata.
17:43
But just remember,
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Ali zapamtite,
17:45
we really are living in an age
of miracle and wonder.
of miracle and wonder.
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mi zaista živimo u dobu čuda.
17:48
We're lucky to be alive today.
We're lucky to see this stuff.
We're lucky to see this stuff.
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Srećni smo što živimo danas.
Srećni što možemo da vidimo ove stvari.
Srećni što možemo da vidimo ove stvari.
17:51
We're lucky to be able to interact
with folks like the folks
with folks like the folks
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Srećni smo što možemo da komuniciramo
sa ljudima kao što su oni
sa ljudima kao što su oni
17:54
who are building
all the stuff in this room.
all the stuff in this room.
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koji prave sve u ovoj prostoriji.
17:57
So thank you to all of you,
for all you do.
for all you do.
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Zato hvala vam svima,
na svemu što radite.
na svemu što radite.
18:01
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com