TED2018
Kate Raworth: A healthy economy should be designed to thrive, not grow
Kate Raworth: En sund økonomi designes til at trives, ikke vækste.
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Hvordan ville en bæredygtig og universel gavnlig økonomi se ud? "Som en doughnut," siger Oxford økonom Kate Raworth. I en enestående, øjeåbner af en tale forklarer hun hvordan, vi kan flytte lande ud af hullet - der hvor de basale menneskelige behov ikke er dækket - og skabe en regenererende og omfordelene økonomi der holder sig inden for planetens miljømæssige begrænsninger.
Kate Raworth - Renegade economist
Kate Raworth is passionate about making economics fit for the 21st century. Full bio
Kate Raworth is passionate about making economics fit for the 21st century. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Have you ever watched
a baby learning to crawl?
a baby learning to crawl?
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Har du set en baby lære at kravle?
00:16
Because as any
parent knows, it's gripping.
parent knows, it's gripping.
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For, som enhver forældre ved,
er det gribende.
er det gribende.
00:19
First, they wriggle about on the floor,
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Først vrikker de rundt på gulvet,
00:21
usually backwards,
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som regel baglæns,
00:22
but then they drag themselves forwards,
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men så slæber de sig forlæns
00:24
and then they pull themselves up to stand,
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og de trækker sig selv op og stå
00:27
and we all clap.
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og vi klapper alle.
00:29
And that simple motion
of forwards and upwards,
of forwards and upwards,
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Og den simple bevægelse frem og op
00:33
it's the most basic direction
of progress we humans recognize.
of progress we humans recognize.
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er den mest basale retning for fremskridt,
vi mennesker kender.
vi mennesker kender.
00:38
We tell it in our story
of evolution as well,
of evolution as well,
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Den findes også i vores
historie om evolutionen.
historie om evolutionen.
00:40
from our lolloping ancestors
to Homo erectus, finally upright,
to Homo erectus, finally upright,
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Fra vores vadende forfædre,
til den stående Homo Erectus,
til den stående Homo Erectus,
00:44
to Homo sapiens, depicted, always a man,
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til Homo Sapiens altid vist, som en mand
00:48
always mid-stride.
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midt i en bevægelse.
00:51
So no wonder we so readily believe
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Så, det undrer ikke, at vi gerne vil tro
00:54
that economic progress
will take this very same shape,
will take this very same shape,
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at den økonomiske proces
vil tage samme form,
vil tage samme form,
00:57
this ever-rising line of growth.
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som den altid stigende
linje af vækst.
linje af vækst.
01:02
It's time to think again,
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Det er tid til at tænke anderledes,
01:04
to reimagine the shape of progress,
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til at gentænke den form for fremskridt.
01:08
because today, we have economies
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For i dag har vi økonomier,
01:11
that need to grow,
whether or not they make us thrive,
whether or not they make us thrive,
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som har brug for at vokse,
uanset om det får os til at trives.
uanset om det får os til at trives.
01:16
and what we need,
especially in the richest countries,
especially in the richest countries,
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Og hvad vi har brug for,
specielt i de rigeste lande,
specielt i de rigeste lande,
01:20
are economies that make us thrive
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er økonomier, der er
i stand til at trives,
i stand til at trives,
01:22
whether or not they grow.
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uanset om de vokser eller ej.
01:24
Yes, it's a little flippant word
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Ja, det er et lidt flabet ord,
01:27
hiding a profound shift in mindset,
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der fordrer en radikal
ændring af vores tankegang.
ændring af vores tankegang.
01:30
but I believe this is the shift
we need to make
we need to make
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Men jeg tror, at det er et
skift vi har brug for,
skift vi har brug for,
01:33
if we, humanity, are going to thrive
here together this century.
here together this century.
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hvis menneskeheden fortsat skal
trives sammen i dette århundrede.
trives sammen i dette århundrede.
01:38
So where did this obsession
with growth come from?
with growth come from?
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Så, hvor kommer denne
besættelse af vækst fra?
besættelse af vækst fra?
01:41
Well, GDP, gross domestic product,
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Tja, BNP, Bruttonationalprodukt,
01:43
it's just the total cost
of goods and services
of goods and services
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er blot den samlede pris
på varer og tjenester
på varer og tjenester
01:46
sold in an economy in a year.
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solgt i en økonomi på et år.
01:48
It was invented in the 1930s,
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Det var opfundet i 1930'erne,
01:50
but it very soon became
the overriding goal of policymaking,
the overriding goal of policymaking,
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men det blev hurtigt til det primære
mål indenfor politikplanlægning.
mål indenfor politikplanlægning.
01:54
so much so that even today,
in the richest of countries,
in the richest of countries,
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Så meget, at selv i dag
i de rigeste lande,
i de rigeste lande,
01:57
governments think that the solution
to their economic problems
to their economic problems
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tror regeringer, at løsningen
til økonomiske problemer
til økonomiske problemer
02:00
lies in more growth.
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ligger i mere vækst.
02:03
Just how that happened
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Hvordan det er sket
02:05
is best told through
the 1960 classic by W.W. Rostow.
the 1960 classic by W.W. Rostow.
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forklares bedst gennem klassikeren
fra 1960 af W.W. Rostow.
fra 1960 af W.W. Rostow.
02:10
I love it so much,
I have a first-edition copy.
I have a first-edition copy.
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Jeg elsker den så meget,
at jeg har en af førsteudgave.
at jeg har en af førsteudgave.
02:16
"The Stages of Economic Growth:
A Non-Communist Manifesto."
A Non-Communist Manifesto."
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"Den økonomiske udviklings faser:
et ikke-kommunistisk manifest".
et ikke-kommunistisk manifest".
02:21
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
02:23
You can just smell the politics, huh?
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Du kan ligefrem lugte
politikken, ikke sandt?
politikken, ikke sandt?
02:25
And Rostow tells us that all economies
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Og Rostow forklarer, at alle økonomier
02:28
need to pass through
five stages of growth:
five stages of growth:
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har fem stadier af vækst,
de skal igennem:
de skal igennem:
02:30
first, traditional society,
where a nation's output is limited
where a nation's output is limited
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først, traditionelt samfund,
hvor den nationale produktion er begrænset
hvor den nationale produktion er begrænset
02:34
by its technology,
its institutions and mindset;
its institutions and mindset;
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af dens teknologi, dens institutioner
og tankegang.
og tankegang.
02:37
but then the preconditions for takeoff,
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Men så kommer forudsætningerne for afgang,
02:39
where we get the beginnings
of a banking industry,
of a banking industry,
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hvor vi får begyndelsen
på bankindustrien,
på bankindustrien,
02:42
the mechanization of work
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mekaniseringen af arbejde
02:43
and the belief that growth is necessary
for something beyond itself,
for something beyond itself,
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og troen på, at vækst er nødvendigt
for noget større end dig selv,
for noget større end dig selv,
02:47
like national dignity
or a better life for the children;
or a better life for the children;
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som f.eks. national værdighed
eller et bedre liv for børnene.
eller et bedre liv for børnene.
02:51
then takeoff, where compound interest
is built into the economy's institutions
is built into the economy's institutions
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Så afgang, hvor renters rente er bygget
ind i de økonomiske institutioner
ind i de økonomiske institutioner
02:57
and growth becomes the normal condition;
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og vækst bliver den normale tilstand.
Nr. fire; driften til modenhed, hvor
man kan have enhver industri, man ønsker,
man kan have enhver industri, man ønsker,
03:00
fourth is the drive to maturity
where you can have any industry you want,
where you can have any industry you want,
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03:03
no matter your natural resource base;
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uanset din base for naturressourcer.
03:05
and the fifth and final stage,
the age of high-mass consumption
the age of high-mass consumption
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Og den femte og sidste fase;
storforbrugets tid,
storforbrugets tid,
03:10
where people can buy
all the consumer goods they want,
all the consumer goods they want,
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hvor folk kan købe alle de goder,
de ønsker,
de ønsker,
03:12
like bicycles and sewing machines --
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som cykler og symaskiner -
03:14
this was 1960, remember.
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husk det her var 1960'erne.
03:17
Well, you can hear the implicit
airplane metaphor in this story,
airplane metaphor in this story,
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Du kan høre den indirekte
flymaskine-metafor i denne historie.
flymaskine-metafor i denne historie.
03:23
but this plane is like no other,
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Men dette fly er ulig enhver anden,
03:27
because it can never be allowed to land.
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for det kan aldrig få tilladelse
til at lande.
til at lande.
03:30
Rostow left us flying
into the sunset of mass consumerism,
into the sunset of mass consumerism,
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Rostow efterlod os flyvende
mod solnedgangen af storforbug
mod solnedgangen af storforbug
03:35
and he knew it.
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og han vidste det.
03:37
As he wrote,
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Som han skrev;
03:39
"And then the question beyond,
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"Og så bliver spørgsmålet,
03:43
where history offers us only fragments.
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hvor historien kun giver os
stykker af svaret.
stykker af svaret.
03:47
What to do when the increase
in real income itself loses its charm?"
in real income itself loses its charm?"
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Hvad gør vi, når stigningen
i indkomst mister charmen?"
i indkomst mister charmen?"
03:54
He asked that question,
but he never answered it, and here's why.
but he never answered it, and here's why.
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Han spurgte spørgsmålet, men han besvarede
det aldrig. Her er hvorfor;
det aldrig. Her er hvorfor;
03:58
The year was 1960,
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Året var 1960.
03:59
he was an advisor to the presidential
candidate John F. Kennedy,
candidate John F. Kennedy,
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Han var rådgiver til præsidentkandidaten
John F. Kennedy,
John F. Kennedy,
04:03
who was running for election
on the promise of five-percent growth,
on the promise of five-percent growth,
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som løb til valget
med et løfte om fem procent vækst.
med et løfte om fem procent vækst.
04:07
so Rostow's job was
to keep that plane flying,
to keep that plane flying,
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So Rostow's opgave var
at holde flyet i luften -
at holde flyet i luften -
04:09
not to ask if, how, or when
it could ever be allowed to land.
it could ever be allowed to land.
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ikke at spørge, hvordan og hvornår
det kunne få tilladelse til at lande.
det kunne få tilladelse til at lande.
04:16
So here we are, flying into the sunset
of mass consumerism
of mass consumerism
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Så her er vi,
flyvende mod solnedgangen af storforbrug
flyvende mod solnedgangen af storforbrug
04:20
over half a century on,
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over et halvt århundrede senere,
04:22
with economies that have come
to expect, demand and depend upon
to expect, demand and depend upon
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med økonomier, som forventer,
efterspørgser og er afhængige af
efterspørgser og er afhængige af
04:27
unending growth,
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uendelig vækst,
04:29
because we're financially,
politically and socially addicted to it.
politically and socially addicted to it.
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fordi vi er finansielt, politisk
og socialt afhængige af det.
og socialt afhængige af det.
04:34
We're financially addicted to growth,
because today's financial system
because today's financial system
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Vi er finansielt afhængige af vækst,
fordi nutidens finansielle system
fordi nutidens finansielle system
04:38
is designed to pursue
the highest rate of monetary return,
the highest rate of monetary return,
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er indrettet til at jagte
det største monetære afkast.
det største monetære afkast.
04:41
putting publicly traded companies
under constant pressure
under constant pressure
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De sætter børsnoterede firmaer
under konstant pres
under konstant pres
04:45
to deliver growing sales,
growing market share and growing profits,
growing market share and growing profits,
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for at levere øget salg,
øget markedsandel og voksende profit
øget markedsandel og voksende profit
04:48
and because banks create money
as debt bearing interest,
as debt bearing interest,
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og fordi banker skaber penge
som gældskabende renter,
som gældskabende renter,
04:52
which must be repaid with more.
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som må tilbagebetales.
04:54
We're politically addicted to growth
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Vi er politisk afhængige af vækst,
04:55
because politicians
want to raise tax revenue
want to raise tax revenue
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fordi politikere vil hæve
skatteindtægterne
skatteindtægterne
04:58
without raising taxes
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uden at hæve skatterne
04:59
and a growing GDP
seems a sure way to do that.
seems a sure way to do that.
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og en voksende GDP virker,
som en sikker måde at gøre det på.
som en sikker måde at gøre det på.
05:02
And no politician wants to lose
their place in the G-20 family photo.
their place in the G-20 family photo.
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Og ingen politiker vil miste
deres plads i G-20 familiefotoet.
deres plads i G-20 familiefotoet.
05:06
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
05:07
But if their economy stops growing
while the rest keep going,
while the rest keep going,
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Men hvis deres økonomi stopper med
at vokse, mens de andres fortsætter -
at vokse, mens de andres fortsætter -
05:11
well, they'll be booted out
by the next emerging powerhouse.
by the next emerging powerhouse.
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Tja, så bliver de smidt ud af det næste
magtcenter.
magtcenter.
05:14
And we are socially addicted to growth,
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Og vi er socialt afhængige af vækst,
05:16
because thanks to a century
of consumer propaganda,
of consumer propaganda,
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takket være et århundrede
med forbruger-propaganda,
med forbruger-propaganda,
05:20
which fascinatingly
was created by Edward Bernays,
was created by Edward Bernays,
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hvilket fascinerende nok
var skabt af Edward Bernays,
var skabt af Edward Bernays,
05:23
the nephew of Sigmund Freud,
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Sigmund Freuds nevø,
05:26
who realized that
his uncle's psychotherapy
his uncle's psychotherapy
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som opdagede, at hans onkels psykoterapi
05:29
could be turned into
very lucrative retail therapy
very lucrative retail therapy
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kunne blive til lukrativ detail terapi,
05:32
if we could be convinced
to believe that we transform ourselves
to believe that we transform ourselves
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hvis vi kunne blive overbevist om,
at vi genskaber os selv,
at vi genskaber os selv,
05:37
every time we buy something more.
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hver gang vi køber noget nyt.
05:41
None of these addictions
are insurmountable,
are insurmountable,
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Ingen af disse afhængigheder
er uovervindelige,
er uovervindelige,
05:44
but they all deserve far more attention
than they currently get,
than they currently get,
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men de fortjener alle langt mere
opmærksomhed, end de pt. får,
opmærksomhed, end de pt. får,
05:48
because look where this journey
has been taking us.
has been taking us.
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for se hvor vejen fører os hen.
05:50
Global GDP is 10 times bigger
than it was in 1950
than it was in 1950
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Verdens BNP er 10 gange højere end i 1950
05:55
and that increase has brought
prosperity to billions of people,
prosperity to billions of people,
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og den vækst har skabt velstand
for milliarder af mennesker,
for milliarder af mennesker,
05:59
but the global economy
has also become incredibly divisive,
has also become incredibly divisive,
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men den globale økonomi
er også blevet utroligt splittende,
er også blevet utroligt splittende,
06:04
with the vast share of returns to wealth
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hvor størstedelen af rigdommen
06:06
now accruing to a fraction
of the global one percent.
of the global one percent.
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tilfalder blot en brøkdel
af verdens rigeste.
af verdens rigeste.
06:10
And the economy has become
incredibly degenerative,
incredibly degenerative,
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Og økonomien er blevet utroligt
degenererende,
degenererende,
06:14
rapidly destabilizing
this delicately balanced planet
this delicately balanced planet
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hvor den hurtigt destabiliserer
denne skrøbeligt balanceret planet,
denne skrøbeligt balanceret planet,
06:19
on which all of our lives depend.
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som vores liv er afhængige af.
06:22
Our politicians know it, and so they offer
new destinations for growth.
new destinations for growth.
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Vores politikere ved det,
så de tilbyder nye destinationer for vækst
så de tilbyder nye destinationer for vækst
06:26
You can have green growth,
inclusive growth,
inclusive growth,
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Du kan have grøn vækst,
inkluderende vækst
inkluderende vækst
06:28
smart, resilient, balanced growth.
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smart, robust og balanceret vækst.
06:30
Choose any future you want
so long as you choose growth.
so long as you choose growth.
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Vælg enhver fremtid du vil,
så længe du vælger vækst.
så længe du vælger vækst.
06:35
I think it's time to choose
a higher ambition, a far bigger one,
a higher ambition, a far bigger one,
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Jeg tror det er på tide at få
en større ambition, en meget større en,
en større ambition, en meget større en,
06:40
because humanity's
21st century challenge is clear:
21st century challenge is clear:
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for menneskehedens udfordring
i det 21. århundrede er tydelig:
i det 21. århundrede er tydelig:
06:44
to meet the needs of all people
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At møde alle folks behov
06:47
within the means of this
extraordinary, unique, living planet
extraordinary, unique, living planet
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med de midler vi har her på denne
fantastisk unikke og levende planet,
fantastisk unikke og levende planet,
06:51
so that we and the rest
of nature can thrive.
of nature can thrive.
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så vi og resten af naturen kan trives.
06:56
Progress on this goal isn't going
to be measured with the metric of money.
to be measured with the metric of money.
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Denne form for fremskridt
kan ikke måles i penge.
kan ikke måles i penge.
06:59
We need a dashboard of indicators.
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Vi har brug for et instrumentbræt
af indikatorer.
af indikatorer.
07:02
And when I sat down to try and draw
a picture of what that might look like,
a picture of what that might look like,
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Og da jeg satte mig ned og forsøgte at
tegne et billede af, hvad det kunne ligne,
tegne et billede af, hvad det kunne ligne,
07:06
strange though this is going to sound,
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uanset hvor mærkeligt det lyder,
07:08
it came out looking like a doughnut.
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så kom det til at ligne en doughnut.
Jeg ved det, jeg beklager,
07:12
I know, I'm sorry,
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men lad mig introducerer dig
for den ene doughnut,
for den ene doughnut,
07:13
but let me introduce you
to the one doughnut
to the one doughnut
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som måske vil vise sig
at være god for os.
at være god for os.
07:15
that might actually turn out
to be good for us.
to be good for us.
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Så forestil dig menneskehedens
ressourcebrug udstråler fra midten.
ressourcebrug udstråler fra midten.
07:18
So imagine humanity's resource use
radiating out from the middle.
radiating out from the middle.
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Det hul inde i midten er et sted,
07:21
That hole in the middle is a place
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hvor folk ikke får opfyldt
livets basale behov.
livets basale behov.
07:23
where people are falling short
on life's essentials.
on life's essentials.
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07:25
They don't have the food, health care,
education, political voice, housing
education, political voice, housing
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De har ikke maden, sundhedsydelserne,
uddannelsen, en politisk stemme, boligen,
uddannelsen, en politisk stemme, boligen,
07:29
that every person needs
for a life of dignity and opportunity.
for a life of dignity and opportunity.
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som alle mennesker behøver for
et værdigt liv med muligheder.
et værdigt liv med muligheder.
07:33
We want to get everybody out of the hole,
over the social foundation
over the social foundation
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Vi vil have alle ud af hullet,
over det sociale fundament
over det sociale fundament
07:36
and into that green doughnut itself.
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og ind i den grønne doughnut.
07:39
But, and it's a big but,
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Men, og det er et stort men,
07:43
we cannot let our collective resource use
overshoot that outer circle,
overshoot that outer circle,
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vi kan ikke lade vores kollektive brug af
ressourcer overskyde den ydre cirkel;
ressourcer overskyde den ydre cirkel;
07:48
the ecological ceiling,
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miljøloftet,
07:49
because there we put so much pressure
on this extraordinary planet
on this extraordinary planet
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for der putter vi så meget pres på denne
fantastiske planet,
fantastiske planet,
07:53
that we begin to kick it out of kilter.
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at vi begynder at sparke
den ud af balance.
den ud af balance.
07:55
We cause climate breakdown,
we acidify the oceans,
we acidify the oceans,
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Vi forsager klimanedbrud,
vi syrner havene,
vi syrner havene,
07:58
a hole in the ozone layer,
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skaber hul i ozonlaget,
08:00
pushing ourselves
beyond the planetary boundaries
beyond the planetary boundaries
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skubber os selv over planetens grænser
08:03
of the life-supporting systems
that have for the last 11,000 years
that have for the last 11,000 years
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for dets livgivende system,
som de seneste 11.000 år har
som de seneste 11.000 år har
08:08
made earth such a benevolent
home to humanity.
home to humanity.
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gjort denne planet til et så
velvilligt hjem for menneskeheden.
velvilligt hjem for menneskeheden.
08:13
So this double-sided challenge
to meet the needs of all
to meet the needs of all
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Så denne tosidede udfordring
for at møde alles behov
for at møde alles behov
08:15
within the means of the planet,
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indenfor planetens midler,
08:17
it invites a new shape of progress,
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det kræver en ny form for fremskridt,
08:19
no longer this ever-rising line of growth,
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der ikke inkluderer denne evigt voksende
linje af vækst,
linje af vækst,
08:22
but a sweet spot for humanity,
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men et godt sted for menneskeheden,
08:25
thriving in dynamic balance
between the foundation and the ceiling.
between the foundation and the ceiling.
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der trives i en dynamisk balance
mellem fundamentet og loftet.
mellem fundamentet og loftet.
08:30
And I was really struck
once I'd drawn this picture
once I'd drawn this picture
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Og jeg var virkelig overrasket,
da jeg tegnede billedet
da jeg tegnede billedet
08:32
to realize that the symbol of well-being
in many ancient cultures
in many ancient cultures
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og så, at symbolet for velfærd
i mange gamle kulturer
i mange gamle kulturer
08:37
reflects this very same sense
of dynamic balance,
of dynamic balance,
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afspejler den samme fornemmelse
af dynamisk balance,
af dynamisk balance,
08:40
from the Maori Takarangi
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fra Maori Takarangi
til taoisten Yin Yang,
den buddhistiske endeløse knude,
den buddhistiske endeløse knude,
08:42
to the Taoist Yin Yang,
the Buddhist endless knot,
the Buddhist endless knot,
156
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08:44
the Celtic double spiral.
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den keltiske dobbeltspiral.
08:47
So can we find this dynamic balance
in the 21st century?
in the 21st century?
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Så kan vi finde denne dynamiske balance
i det 21. århundrede?
i det 21. århundrede?
Tja, det er det store spørgsmål,
08:52
Well, that's a key question,
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08:54
because as these red wedges show,
right now we are far from balanced,
right now we are far from balanced,
160
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4656
for som disse røde kiler viser, så
er vi lige nu langt fra at være i balance.
er vi lige nu langt fra at være i balance.
08:58
falling short and overshooting
at the same time.
at the same time.
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Vi kommer til kort
og overskrider på samme tid.
og overskrider på samme tid.
Kig ind hullet og du kan se millioner
eller milliarder af mennesker i verden,
eller milliarder af mennesker i verden,
09:02
Look in that hole, you can see that
millions or billions of people worldwide
millions or billions of people worldwide
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09:05
still fall short
on their most basic of needs.
on their most basic of needs.
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som stadig ikke får opfyldt
deres mest basale behov.
deres mest basale behov.
09:09
And yet, we've already overshot at least
four of these planetary boundaries,
four of these planetary boundaries,
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537200
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Og vi har alligevel overskudt mindst fire
af disse grænser for planeten
af disse grænser for planeten
09:13
risking irreversible impact
of climate breakdown
of climate breakdown
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og risikerer irreversibel
påvirkning på klimanedbrud
påvirkning på klimanedbrud
09:17
and ecosystem collapse.
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og kollaps i økosystemet.
09:20
This is the state of humanity
and our planetary home.
and our planetary home.
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Det er tilstanden på vores menneskehed
og vores planet.
og vores planet.
09:24
We, the people of the early 21st century,
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Vi folket af det 21. århundrede
09:28
this is our selfie.
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det her er vores selfie.
Ingen økonom fra det
sidste århundrede så dette billede,
sidste århundrede så dette billede,
09:31
No economist from last century
saw this picture,
saw this picture,
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så hvordan kan vi forestille os,
at deres teorier
at deres teorier
09:34
so why would we imagine
that their theories
that their theories
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09:36
would be up for taking on its challenges?
172
564440
1976
kan stå imod dens udfordring?
09:38
We need ideas of our own,
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Vi har brug nye ideer,
09:39
because we are the first
generation to see this
generation to see this
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for vi er den første generation
til at se dette
til at se dette
09:42
and probably the last with a real chance
of turning this story around.
of turning this story around.
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og muligvis den sidste med en reel chance
for at vende udviklingen.
for at vende udviklingen.
09:47
You see, 20th century economics assured us
that if growth creates inequality,
that if growth creates inequality,
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Ser du, det 20. århundredes økonomer
svor, at hvis vækst skaber ulighed,
svor, at hvis vækst skaber ulighed,
09:51
don't try to redistribute,
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1496
skal vi ikke prøve at omfordele
09:52
because more growth
will even things up again.
will even things up again.
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2216
for mere vækst vil udligne det igen.
09:54
If growth creates pollution,
179
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1816
Hvis vækst skaber forurening,
09:56
don't try to regulate, because more growth
will clean things up again.
will clean things up again.
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3520
prøv ikke at regulere det, for mere vækst
vil gøre tingene rene igen.
vil gøre tingene rene igen.
10:01
Except, it turns out, it doesn't,
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3016
Men det viser sig, at det gør det ikke
10:04
and it won't.
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1456
og det vil det ikke.
Vi har brug for at skabe økonomier,
som er designet til at takle både
som er designet til at takle både
10:05
We need to create economies that tackle
this shortfall and overshoot together,
this shortfall and overshoot together,
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de områder hvor vi kommer til kort
og dem vi overskrider.
og dem vi overskrider.
10:09
by design.
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1536
10:11
We need economies that are regenerative
and distributive by design.
and distributive by design.
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4576
Vi har brug for økonomier som er designet
til at regenerere og fordele.
til at regenerere og fordele.
10:16
You see, we've inherited
degenerative industries.
degenerative industries.
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Ser du, vi har arvet
degenererende industrier.
degenererende industrier.
10:18
We take earth's materials,
make them into stuff we want,
make them into stuff we want,
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Vi tager jordens materialer
og laver ting vi vil have,
og laver ting vi vil have,
10:21
use it for a while, often only once,
and then throw it away,
and then throw it away,
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609880
3616
bruger det lidt, ofte kun én gang,
og smider det så væk.
og smider det så væk.
10:25
and that is pushing us
over planetary boundaries,
over planetary boundaries,
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613520
2696
Og det presser vores planets grænser,
10:28
so we need to bend those arrows around,
190
616240
2496
så vi er nødt til at vende pilene rundt
10:30
create economies that work with and within
the cycles of the living world,
the cycles of the living world,
191
618760
4216
og skabe økonomier, som samarbejder med
og i den levende verdens harmoni,
og i den levende verdens harmoni,
så ressourcer aldrig bliver brugt op
men bliver brugt igen og igen.
men bliver brugt igen og igen.
10:35
so that resources are never used up
but used again and again,
but used again and again,
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623000
3056
10:38
economies that run on sunlight,
193
626080
1976
Økonomier der løber på solskin,
10:40
where waste from one process
is food for the next.
is food for the next.
194
628080
3536
hvor affald fra en proces
er føde for den næste.
er føde for den næste.
10:43
And this kind of regenerative design
is popping up everywhere.
is popping up everywhere.
195
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Og denne form for regenererende design
dukker op overalt.
dukker op overalt.
10:47
Over a hundred cities worldwide,
from Quito to Oslo,
from Quito to Oslo,
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Over hundrede byer verden rundt,
fra Quito til Oslo,
fra Quito til Oslo,
10:50
from Harare to Hobart,
197
638960
1856
fra Harara til Hobart,
10:52
already generate more than 70 percent
of their electricity
of their electricity
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640840
3456
generere allerede mere end 70% af
deres elektricitet
deres elektricitet
10:56
from sun, wind and waves.
199
644320
2376
fra sol, vind eller bølger.
10:58
Cities like London, Glasgow, Amsterdam
are pioneering circular city design,
are pioneering circular city design,
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646720
5096
Byer som London, Glasgow, Amsterdam
er pionerer indenfor cirkulær by design
er pionerer indenfor cirkulær by design
11:03
finding ways to turn the waste
from one urban process
from one urban process
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3136
og finder måder at vende affald
fra en by-proces
fra en by-proces
11:07
into food for the next.
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til føde for den næste.
11:08
And from Tigray, Ethiopia
to Queensland, Australia,
to Queensland, Australia,
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4296
Og fra Tigray, Etiopien til
Queensland, Australien,
Queensland, Australien,
11:13
farmers and foresters are regenerating
once-barren landscapes
once-barren landscapes
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4216
regenererer landmænd og skovriddere
engang øde landskaber,
engang øde landskaber,
11:17
so that it teems with life again.
205
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så de atter vrimler med liv.
11:20
But as well as being
regenerative by design,
regenerative by design,
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2096
Men såvel som
at være regenererende
at være regenererende
11:22
our economies must be
distributive by design,
distributive by design,
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3456
må vores økonomier være
designet til at fordele,
designet til at fordele,
11:26
and we've got unprecedented
opportunities for making that happen,
opportunities for making that happen,
208
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4256
og vi har hidtil usete muligheder
for at få det til at ske,
for at få det til at ske,
11:30
because 20th-century
centralized technologies,
centralized technologies,
209
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3256
for det 20. århundrede
centraliserede teknologi,
centraliserede teknologi,
11:33
institutions,
210
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1496
institutioner,
11:35
concentrated wealth,
knowledge and power in few hands.
knowledge and power in few hands.
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5256
og koncentrerede velstand, viden
og magt ned i få hænder.
og magt ned i få hænder.
11:40
This century, we can design
our technologies and institutions
our technologies and institutions
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3616
Dette århundrede kan vi designe
vores teknologi og institutioner
vores teknologi og institutioner
11:44
to distribute wealth, knowledge
and empowerment to many.
and empowerment to many.
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til at fordele velstand, viden
og handlefrihed til alle.
og handlefrihed til alle.
11:48
Instead of fossil fuel energy
and large-scale manufacturing,
and large-scale manufacturing,
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3736
I stedet for fossil afbrænding og
produktion på stor skala
produktion på stor skala
11:52
we've got renewable energy networks,
digital platforms and 3D printing.
digital platforms and 3D printing.
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700320
4040
har vi fornyende energinetværker,
digitale platforme og 3D print.
digitale platforme og 3D print.
11:57
200 years of corporate control
of intellectual property is being upended
of intellectual property is being upended
216
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4536
200 år under virksomhedernes kontrol
af ejendomsret er vendt
af ejendomsret er vendt
12:02
by the bottom-up, open-source,
peer-to-peer knowledge commons.
peer-to-peer knowledge commons.
217
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3736
af åbne, dobbelt tjekkede videns lagre.
12:06
And corporations that still pursue
maximum rate of return
maximum rate of return
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3456
Og virksomheder, som stadig søger
efter det højeste afkast
efter det højeste afkast
12:09
for their shareholders,
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2296
til deres aktionærer,
12:12
well they suddenly look rather out of date
220
720040
2296
er lige pludselige gammeldags
12:14
next to social enterprises
that are designed to generate
that are designed to generate
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722360
2936
sammenlignet med sociale virksomheder
designet til at skabe
designet til at skabe
12:17
multiple forms of value and share it
with those throughout their networks.
with those throughout their networks.
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3640
flere former for værdi og dele den
med alle i deres netværk.
med alle i deres netværk.
12:22
If we can harness today's technologies,
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2696
Hvis vi kan udnytte den nye teknologi,
12:25
from AI to blockchain
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2696
fra kunstig intelligens til blockchain,
12:27
to the Internet of Things
to material science,
to material science,
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2176
til internettet, til materiel videnskab,
12:30
if we can harness these
in service of distributive design,
in service of distributive design,
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4296
hvis vi kan udnytte alt det
i omfordelende tjenester
i omfordelende tjenester
12:34
we can ensure that health care, education,
finance, energy, political voice
finance, energy, political voice
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742440
4936
kan vi sikre at sundhedspleje, uddannelse,
finans, energi og en politisk stemme
finans, energi og en politisk stemme
12:39
reaches and empowers those people
who need it most.
who need it most.
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3280
når ud og giver selvfølelse
til dem der har mest brug for det.
til dem der har mest brug for det.
12:43
You see, regenerative
and distributive design
and distributive design
229
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3016
For ser du, regenererende
og omfordelende design
og omfordelende design
12:46
create extraordinary opportunities
for the 21st-century economy.
for the 21st-century economy.
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3560
skaber vilde muligheder i det
21. århundredes økonomi.
21. århundredes økonomi.
12:51
So where does this leave
Rostow's airplane ride?
Rostow's airplane ride?
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3176
Så hvor efterlader det Rostows fly tur?
12:54
Well, for some it still carries
the hope of endless green growth,
the hope of endless green growth,
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3456
Altså, nogen tror stadig
på uendelig grøn vækst,
på uendelig grøn vækst,
12:58
the idea that thanks to dematerialization,
233
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de tror at grundet dematerialisering,
13:01
exponential GDP growth can go on forever
while resource use keeps falling.
while resource use keeps falling.
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4600
kan eksponentiel BNP-vækst fortsætte
for evigt, mens ressourceforbrug falder.
for evigt, mens ressourceforbrug falder.
Men se på tallene.
Flyveturen er det rene utopi.
Flyveturen er det rene utopi.
13:06
But look at the data.
This is a flight of fancy.
This is a flight of fancy.
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Ja, vi har brug for
at dematerialisere vores økonomier,
at dematerialisere vores økonomier,
13:10
Yes, we need to dematerialize
our economies,
our economies,
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2296
13:13
but this dependency on unending growth
cannot be decoupled from resource use
cannot be decoupled from resource use
237
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4416
men afhængigheden af uendelig vækst
kan ikke frakobles forbrug af ressourcer
kan ikke frakobles forbrug af ressourcer
13:17
on anything like the scale required
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på et tilstrækkeligt niveau
der bringer os tilbage indenfor
de miljømæssige begrænsninger
de miljømæssige begrænsninger
13:19
to bring us safely back
within planetary boundaries.
within planetary boundaries.
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2760
13:24
I know this way of thinking
about growth is unfamiliar,
about growth is unfamiliar,
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Jeg ved, at det er en
ny måde at se vækst på,
ny måde at se vækst på,
13:26
because growth is good, no?
241
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2056
for vækst er godt, ikke?
Vi vil ha' at vores børn skal vokse,
at vores haver skal vokse.
at vores haver skal vokse.
13:28
We want our children to grow,
our gardens to grow.
our gardens to grow.
242
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2936
13:31
Yes, look to nature and growth
is a wonderful, healthy source of life.
is a wonderful, healthy source of life.
243
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4256
Ja, se bare på naturen og vækst
det er en naturlig kilde til liv.
det er en naturlig kilde til liv.
13:36
It's a phase, but many economies
like Ethiopia and Nepal today
like Ethiopia and Nepal today
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Det er en fase, og mange økonomier,
som Etiopien og Nepal,
som Etiopien og Nepal,
13:40
may be in that phase.
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er i den fase i dag.
13:41
Their economies are growing
at seven percent a year.
at seven percent a year.
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Deres økonomier vækster
med syv procent om året.
med syv procent om året.
13:45
But look again to nature,
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Men se på naturen igen,
13:47
because from your children's feet
to the Amazon forest,
to the Amazon forest,
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for fra vores børns fødder,
til Amazon skoven,
til Amazon skoven,
er der intet i naturen,
der vokser for evigt
der vokser for evigt
13:51
nothing in nature grows forever.
249
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1936
13:53
Things grow, and they grow up
and they mature,
and they mature,
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3056
Ting gror, de vokser op, og de modner,
13:56
and it's only by doing so
251
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1776
og det er kun ved at gøre sådan,
13:58
that they can thrive for a very long time.
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3720
at de kan overleve i længere tid.
14:03
We already know this.
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Vi ved det allerede.
14:05
If I told you my friend went to the doctor
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Hvis jeg fortalte jer,
om min ven som var hos lægen,
om min ven som var hos lægen,
14:08
who told her she had a growth
255
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1760
som fortalte hende, at hun havde vækst.
14:12
that feels very different,
256
840360
1696
Så er det helt anderledes,
14:14
because we intuitively understand
that when something tries to grow forever
that when something tries to grow forever
257
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fordi vi intuitivt forstår,
at når noget prøver at vokse for evigt
at når noget prøver at vokse for evigt
14:18
within a healthy, living, thriving system,
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4376
indenfor et sundt, levende legeme,
14:22
it's a threat to the health of the whole.
259
850560
1960
så er det en trussel
til hele legemets sundhed.
til hele legemets sundhed.
Så hvorfor tror vi at vores økonomier
14:25
So why would we imagine that our economies
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skulle være det ene system
der kunne vende denne tendens,
der kunne vende denne tendens,
14:27
would be the one system
that could buck this trend
that could buck this trend
261
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2696
14:30
and succeed by growing forever?
262
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1920
og kunne vækste for evigt?
14:33
We urgently need financial,
political and social innovations
political and social innovations
263
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4736
Vi har presserende brug for finansielle,
politiske og sociale innovationer,
politiske og sociale innovationer,
14:38
that enable us to overcome
this structural dependency on growth,
this structural dependency on growth,
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der gør det muligt at løse vores
strukturelle afhængighed af vækst,
strukturelle afhængighed af vækst,
14:42
so that we can instead
focus on thriving and balance
focus on thriving and balance
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så vi i stedet kan fokusere
på at trives og skabe balance
på at trives og skabe balance
14:48
within the social and the ecological
boundaries of the doughnut.
boundaries of the doughnut.
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inden for de sociale og
miljømæssige grænser i "the doughnut".
miljømæssige grænser i "the doughnut".
14:53
And if the mere idea of boundaries
makes you feel, well, bounded,
makes you feel, well, bounded,
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Og hvis ideen om grænser føles indelukket,
14:59
think again.
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så tænk over det.
15:00
Because the world's most ingenious people
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For verdens mest opfindsomme mennesker
15:03
turn boundaries into
the source of their creativity.
the source of their creativity.
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bruger grænser som
en kilde til deres kreativitet.
en kilde til deres kreativitet.
15:07
From Mozart on his five-octave piano
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Fra Mozart på hans fem-oktav klaver,
15:10
Jimi Hendrix on his six-string guitar,
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Jimi Hendrix på sin seksstrengede guitar,
15:13
Serena Williams on a tennis court,
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Serena Williams på en tennisbane,
15:16
it's boundaries
that unleash our potential.
that unleash our potential.
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det er grænser
det frigiver vores fulde potentiale.
det frigiver vores fulde potentiale.
15:20
And the doughnut's boundaries unleash
the potential for humanity to thrive
the potential for humanity to thrive
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Og "the doughnut's" grænser giver
menneskeheden mulighed for at trives
menneskeheden mulighed for at trives
15:25
with boundless creativity,
participation, belonging and meaning.
participation, belonging and meaning.
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med grænseløs kreativitet,
deltagelse, tilhørsforhold og hensigt.
deltagelse, tilhørsforhold og hensigt.
15:32
It's going to take all the ingenuity
that we have got to get there,
that we have got to get there,
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Det kræver al opfindsomhed
vi har for at nå i mål,
vi har for at nå i mål,
15:37
so bring it on.
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så kom med det,
15:38
Thank you.
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Tak.
15:40
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kate Raworth - Renegade economistKate Raworth is passionate about making economics fit for the 21st century.
Why you should listen
Kate Raworth writes: "I am a renegade economist, dedicated to rewriting economics so that it's fit for tackling the 21st century's grand challenge of meeting the needs of all people within the means of the planet. After 20 years of wrestling with policies based on outdated economic theories -- via the villages of Zanzibar to the headquarters of the UN and on the campaigning frontlines of Oxfam -- I realized that if the economic conversations taking place in parliaments, in boardrooms and in the media worldwide are going to change, then the fundamental economic ideas taught in schools and universities have to be transformed, too.
"I wrote Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist to be the book that I wish I could have read when I was a frustrated and disillusioned economics student myself. And silly though it sounds, it all starts with a doughnut (yes, the kind with a hole in the middle), which acts as a compass for 21st-century prosperity, inviting us to rethink what the economy is, and is for, who we are, and what success looks like."
Kate Raworth | Speaker | TED.com