TED@IBM
Tapiwa Chiwewe: You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems
Tapiwa Chiwewe: Ne moraš biti stručnjak da bi rješavao velike probleme
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Jednoga dana, vozeći se u Johannesburg, Tapiwa Chiwewe primijetio je ogroman oblak onečišćenoga zraka nad gradom. Bio je znatiželjan i zabrinut, iako ne i stručan u zaštiti okoliša, stoga je istraživao i otkrio da je gotovo 14 posto svih smrti u svijetu tijekom 2012. godine bilo uzrokovano onečišćenjem zraka u zatvorenim i otvorenim prostorima. Slijedom ovoga saznanja i želje da nešto poduzme u vezi s time, Chiwewe i njegove kolege razvili su platformu koja otkriva trendove onečišćenja i pomaže gradskim planerima u donošenju boljih odluka. "Ponekad samo jedan novi način viđenja stvari, jedan novi skup vještina, mogu stvoriti prave uvjete da se dogodi nešto značajno," kaže Chiwewe. "Samo morate biti dovoljno hrabri da pokušate."
Tapiwa Chiwewe - AI researcher
Tapiwa Chiwewe, PhD, manages the advanced and applied artificial intelligence group at IBM Research – Africa, which uses artificial intelligence to develop solutions for some of Africa's grand challenges whilst making scientific advances. Full bio
Tapiwa Chiwewe, PhD, manages the advanced and applied artificial intelligence group at IBM Research – Africa, which uses artificial intelligence to develop solutions for some of Africa's grand challenges whilst making scientific advances. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
One winter morning, a couple of years ago,
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Jednog zimskog jutra prije nekoliko godina
00:16
I was driving to work
in Johannesburg, South Africa,
in Johannesburg, South Africa,
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vozio sam se na posao u Johannesburg,
Južnoafrička Republika,
Južnoafrička Republika,
00:19
and noticed a haze hanging over the city.
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i zamijetio maglu nad gradom.
00:22
I make that drive on most days,
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Vozim se onuda gotovo svakoga dana
00:25
so it was unusual
that I hadn't noticed this before.
that I hadn't noticed this before.
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pa je bilo neobično
da to ranije nisam zamijetio.
da to ranije nisam zamijetio.
00:28
Johannesburg is known
for its distinctive skyline,
for its distinctive skyline,
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Johannesburg ima
prepoznatljiv izgled na horizontu
prepoznatljiv izgled na horizontu
koji sam toga jutra jedva razaznavao.
00:31
which I could barely see that morning.
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00:34
It didn't take long for me to realize
that I was looking at an enormous cloud
that I was looking at an enormous cloud
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Ubrzo sam shvatio da je
preda mnom ogroman oblak
preda mnom ogroman oblak
00:38
of air pollution.
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onečišćenoga zraka.
00:40
The contrast between
the scenic environment I knew
the scenic environment I knew
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Suprotnost između lijepog krajolika
kojeg sam poznavao
kojeg sam poznavao
00:44
and this smog-covered skyline
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i ovoga horizonta prekrivenog smogom,
00:46
stirred up something within me.
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izazvala je u meni vrtlog dojmova.
00:49
I was appalled by the possibility
of this city of bright and vivid sunsets
of this city of bright and vivid sunsets
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Zaprepastila me mogućnost da ovaj grad
sjajnih i jasnih zalazaka sunca
sjajnih i jasnih zalazaka sunca
00:54
being overrun by a dull haze.
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bude prekriven gustom maglom.
00:57
At that moment, I felt an urge
to do something about it,
to do something about it,
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Toga sam trena osjetio potrebu
da nešto poduzmem u vezi s time,
da nešto poduzmem u vezi s time,
01:01
but I didn't know what.
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ali nisam znao što.
01:03
All I knew was
I couldn't just stand idly by.
I couldn't just stand idly by.
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Znao sam jedino to
da ne mogu sjediti skrštenih ruku.
da ne mogu sjediti skrštenih ruku.
01:07
The main challenge was,
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Glavni izazov bio je taj
01:09
I didn't know much
about environmental science
about environmental science
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da nisam mnogo znao o znanosti o okolišu,
01:13
air-quality management
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upravljanju kvalitetom zraka
01:15
or atmospheric chemistry.
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ili atmosferskoj kemiji.
01:17
I am a computer engineer,
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Ja sam računalni inženjer
01:19
and I was pretty sure I couldn't code
my way out of this air pollution problem.
my way out of this air pollution problem.
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i bio sam prilično siguran da ne mogu naći
kôd za izlaz iz ovog ekološkog problema.
kôd za izlaz iz ovog ekološkog problema.
01:23
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:24
Who was I to do anything about this issue?
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Tko sam ja uopće da bih
učinio išta po ovom pitanju?
učinio išta po ovom pitanju?
01:27
I was but a citizen.
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Bio sam običan građanin.
01:31
In the following years,
I learned a very important lesson,
I learned a very important lesson,
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Tijekom narednih godina
naučio sam vrlo važnu lekciju,
naučio sam vrlo važnu lekciju,
01:35
a lesson we all need to take to heart
if we are to work towards a better future.
if we are to work towards a better future.
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lekciju koju svi moramo uzeti srcu
ako želimo graditi bolju budućnost.
ako želimo graditi bolju budućnost.
01:40
Even if you're not an expert
in a particular domain,
in a particular domain,
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Čak i ako niste stručnjak
u određenom području,
u određenom području,
01:44
your outside expertise may hold the key
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vaša stručnost iz drugih područja
može biti ključna
može biti ključna
01:47
to solving big problems
within that domain.
within that domain.
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za rješavanje velikih problema
u tom području.
u tom području.
01:50
Sometimes the unique perspective you have
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Ponekad, vaše jedinstveno viđenje stvari
01:53
can result in unconventional thinking
that can move the needle,
that can move the needle,
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može rezultirati nekonvencionalnim
razmišljanjem koje će potaknuti promjenu,
razmišljanjem koje će potaknuti promjenu,
01:57
but you need to be bold enough to try.
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ali treba imati dovoljno
hrabrosti i pokušati.
hrabrosti i pokušati.
02:01
That's the only way you'll ever know.
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Jedino ćete tako znati.
02:04
What I knew back then
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U to sam vrijeme znao da,
02:06
was that if I was even going
to try to make a difference,
to try to make a difference,
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ako želim makar pokušati
promijeniti stvari,
promijeniti stvari,
02:10
I had to get smart
about air pollution first,
about air pollution first,
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moram prvo steći znanje
o onečišćenju zraka.
o onečišćenju zraka.
02:13
and so I became a student again.
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I tako sam ponovno postao student.
02:17
I did a bit of basic research
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Proučio sam osnove
02:19
and soon learned that air pollution
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i ubrzo spoznao da je onečišćenje zraka
02:21
is the world's biggest
environmental health risk.
environmental health risk.
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najveći ekološki
zdravstveni rizik na svijetu.
zdravstveni rizik na svijetu.
02:25
Data from the World Health Organization
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Podaci Svjetske zdravstvene organizacije
02:28
shows that almost 14 percent
of all deaths worldwide in 2012
of all deaths worldwide in 2012
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pokazuju da je gotovo 14 posto
svih smrtnih slučajeva u svijetu u 2012.
svih smrtnih slučajeva u svijetu u 2012.
02:33
were attributable to household
and ambient air pollution,
and ambient air pollution,
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uzrokovano onečišćenjem zraka
u zatvorenim i otvorenim prostorima,
u zatvorenim i otvorenim prostorima,
02:37
with most occurring
in low- and middle-income countries.
in low- and middle-income countries.
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najviše u zemljama
niskih i srednjih prihoda.
niskih i srednjih prihoda.
02:41
Ambient air pollution alone
causes more deaths each year
causes more deaths each year
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Samo onečišćenje zraka na otvorenom
uzrokuje više smrtnih slučajeva godišnje
uzrokuje više smrtnih slučajeva godišnje
02:45
than malaria and HIV/AIDS.
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nego malarija i HIV/AIDS zajedno.
02:48
In Africa, premature deaths
from unsafe sanitation
from unsafe sanitation
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U Africi, preuranjene smrti uslijed
nedovoljno sigurnih zdravstvenih mjera
nedovoljno sigurnih zdravstvenih mjera
02:52
or childhood malnutrition
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ili pothranjenosti djece
02:53
pale in comparison
to deaths due to air pollution,
to deaths due to air pollution,
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blijede u usporedbi sa smrtima
uzrokovanim onečišćenjem zraka,
uzrokovanim onečišćenjem zraka,
02:57
and it comes at a huge economic cost:
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uz što ide i ogroman gospodarski trošak:
03:00
over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013,
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preko 400 milijardi US dolara od 2013.,
03:04
according to a study by the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
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prema istraživanju Organizacije
za ekonomsku suradnju i razvoj.
za ekonomsku suradnju i razvoj.
03:09
Now, in my work,
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U svome radu
03:12
I explore new frontiers
for artificial intelligence,
for artificial intelligence,
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istražujem nove granice
umjetne inteligencije,
umjetne inteligencije,
03:17
where the symbiotic relationship
between man and machine
between man and machine
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pri čemu simbiotski odnos
između čovjeka i stroja
između čovjeka i stroja
03:20
can find a beneficial footing
and help us to make better decisions.
and help us to make better decisions.
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može pronaći djelotvorno uporište
i pomoći nam donositi bolje odluke.
i pomoći nam donositi bolje odluke.
03:25
As I thought about
the air pollution problem,
the air pollution problem,
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Razmišljajući o problemu
onečišćenja zraka,
onečišćenja zraka,
03:28
it became clear that we needed
to find a way to make better decisions
to find a way to make better decisions
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postalo mi je jasno da trebamo pronaći
način kako donositi bolje odluke
način kako donositi bolje odluke
03:32
about how we manage air pollution,
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o načinima rješavanja onečišćenja zraka,
03:34
and given the scale of the problem,
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i, obzirom na veličinu problema,
03:36
it was necessary to do it
in a collaborative way.
in a collaborative way.
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bila je nužna suradnja po tom pitanju.
03:40
So I decided I'd better get to know
some people working within the field.
some people working within the field.
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Tako sam odlučio bolje upoznati
neke ljude koji rade u tom području.
neke ljude koji rade u tom području.
03:45
I started to speak to officials
from the City of Johannesburg
from the City of Johannesburg
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Počeo sam razgovarati sa službenicima
Grada Johannesburga
Grada Johannesburga
03:48
and other surrounding cities,
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i drugih okolnih gradova
03:50
and I engaged the local
scientific community,
scientific community,
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te sam uključio lokalnu
znanstvenu zajednicu,
znanstvenu zajednicu,
03:53
and I also made a few cold calls.
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a uputio sam i nekoliko
nenajavljenih poziva.
nenajavljenih poziva.
03:57
The process of engagement I embarked upon
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Aktivnosti u koje sam se upustio
po ovom pitanju,
po ovom pitanju,
03:59
helped me to develop
a deeper understanding of the problem.
a deeper understanding of the problem.
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pomogle su mi dublje razumjeti problem.
04:03
It also helped me to avoid the trap
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Pomogle su mi i izbjeći zamku,
04:05
people in my profession sometimes
fall into when trying to innovate,
fall into when trying to innovate,
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u koju ponekad upadaju ljudi
iz moje profesije pri pokušaju inovacija,
iz moje profesije pri pokušaju inovacija,
04:09
where we are quick to apply a technology
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kada brzamo s primjenom neke tehnologije,
04:11
before we've firmly grasped
the problem at hand.
the problem at hand.
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prije nego temeljito sagledamo problem.
04:15
I began to develop an idea
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Počeo sam razvijati ideju
04:17
about what I could do
to improve the situation.
to improve the situation.
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o tome kako unaprijediti situaciju.
04:20
I started by simply asking myself
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Počeo sam tako da sam se zapitao
04:23
how I could bring together
in some meaningful way
in some meaningful way
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kako bih mogao smisleno povezati
04:25
my skills in software engineering
and artificial intelligence
and artificial intelligence
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svoje vještine programiranja softvera
i umjetne inteligencije,
i umjetne inteligencije,
04:29
and the expertise of the people
I'd reached out to.
I'd reached out to.
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sa stručnošću ljudi koje sam kontaktirao.
04:33
I wanted to create an online
air-quality management platform
air-quality management platform
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Želio sam stvoriti online platformu
za upravljanje kvalitetom zraka,
za upravljanje kvalitetom zraka,
04:37
that would uncover trends in pollution
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koja bi otkrivala trendove onečišćenja
04:39
and project into the future
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i predviđala buduća kretanja
04:41
to determine what outcomes
can be expected.
can be expected.
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radi određivanja očekivanih ishoda.
04:44
I was determined to see my idea
translate into a practical solution,
translate into a practical solution,
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Bio sam odlučan u tome da se moja ideja
provede u praktično rješenje,
provede u praktično rješenje,
04:49
but I faced uncertainty
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ali sve je izgledalo nesigurno
04:52
and had no guarantee of success.
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i ništa nije jamčilo uspjeh.
04:55
What I had was a very particular set
of engineering skills,
of engineering skills,
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Raspolagao sam vrlo određenim
skupom inženjerskih vještina,
skupom inženjerskih vještina,
05:00
skills I'd acquired over my career
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vještina stečenih tijekom karijere,
05:03
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:04
that were new to people who had
been working on the air pollution problem
been working on the air pollution problem
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koje su bile novost ljudima koji su
problem onečišćenja zraka rješavali
problem onečišćenja zraka rješavali
05:08
for so many years.
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tolike godine.
05:09
What I have come to realize is that
sometimes just one fresh perspective,
sometimes just one fresh perspective,
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Shvatio sam tada da ponekad
samo jedno novo viđenje stvari,
samo jedno novo viđenje stvari,
05:14
one new skill set,
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jedan novi skup vještina,
05:15
can make the conditions right
for something remarkable to happen.
for something remarkable to happen.
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može stvoriti prave uvjete
da se dogodi nešto značajno.
da se dogodi nešto značajno.
05:20
Our willpower and imagination
are a guiding light,
are a guiding light,
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Snaga naše volje i mašte
su svjetlo koje nas vodi,
su svjetlo koje nas vodi,
05:23
enabling us to chart new paths
and navigate through obstacles.
and navigate through obstacles.
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omogućujući nam ucrtavanje
novih puteva i prelaženje prepreka.
novih puteva i prelaženje prepreka.
05:28
Armed with a firmer understanding
of the air pollution problem,
of the air pollution problem,
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Bolje shvativši problem onečišćenja zraka
05:31
and having managed to source
over a decade's worth of data
over a decade's worth of data
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i uz prikupljene podatke
o razinama zagađenja zraka
o razinama zagađenja zraka
05:35
on air pollutant levels
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više od desetljeća unazad
05:36
and the meteorological conditions
for in and around Johannesburg,
for in and around Johannesburg,
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te o meteorološkim uvjetima
u i oko Johannesburga,
u i oko Johannesburga,
05:41
my colleagues from South Africa
and China and myself
and China and myself
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moje kolege iz JAR-a i Kine i ja
05:45
created an air-quality
decision support system
decision support system
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stvorili smo sustav podrške
odlučivanju o kvaliteti zraka
odlučivanju o kvaliteti zraka
05:48
that lives in the cloud.
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koji se nalazi u oblaku.
05:50
This software system
analyzes historical and real-time data
analyzes historical and real-time data
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Ovaj softverski sustav analizira prošle
podatke i one u realnom vremenu
podatke i one u realnom vremenu
05:54
to uncover the spatial-temporal
trends in pollution.
trends in pollution.
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radi otkrivanja prostorno-vremenskih
trendova zagađenja.
trendova zagađenja.
05:57
We then used new
machine learning technology
machine learning technology
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Zatim smo upotrijebili novu
tehnologiju strojnog učenja,
tehnologiju strojnog učenja,
06:00
to predict future levels of pollution
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kako bismo predvidjeli
buduće razine onečišćenja
buduće razine onečišćenja
06:03
for several different pollutants
days in advance.
days in advance.
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za nekoliko različitih zagađivača
danima unaprijed.
danima unaprijed.
06:06
This means that citizens
can make better decisions
can make better decisions
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To znači da građani mogu
donositi bolje odluke
donositi bolje odluke
06:10
about their daily movements
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o svom dnevnom kretanju
06:12
and about where to settle their families.
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i o tome gdje će se naseliti s obiteljima.
06:14
We can predict adverse
pollution events ahead of time,
pollution events ahead of time,
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Možemo predvidjeti štetna onečišćenja,
06:18
identify heavy polluters,
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prepoznati teške zagađivače,
06:19
and they can be ordered
by the relevant authorities
by the relevant authorities
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kojima mjerodavne vlasti mogu naložiti
06:22
to scale back their operations.
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da smanje svoje djelatnosti.
06:25
Through assisted scenario planning,
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Putem potpomognutog predviđanja scenarija
06:27
city planners can also make
better decisions
better decisions
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i urbanisti mogu donositi bolje odluke
06:30
about how to extend infrastructure,
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o tome kako proširiti infrastrukturu,
06:32
such as human settlements
or industrial zones.
or industrial zones.
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poput stambenih jedinica
ili industrijskih zona.
ili industrijskih zona.
06:36
We completed a pilot of our technology
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Testirali smo svoju tehnologiju
kroz pilot-istraživanje
kroz pilot-istraživanje
06:38
that was run over a period of 120 days,
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koje je trajalo 120 dana,
06:42
covering all of South Africa.
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pokrivajući cijelu Južnoafričku Republiku.
06:45
Our results were confirmed
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Rezultate je potvrdila
06:47
when we demonstrated a tight correlation
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snažna korelacija koju smo utvrdili
06:49
between the forecasting data
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između podataka iz prognoze
06:52
and the data we were getting
on the ground.
on the ground.
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i podataka prikupljenih na tlu.
06:55
Through our leadership,
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Kroz naše smo vodstvo
06:57
we have brought cutting-edge,
world-leading assets
world-leading assets
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stvorili najsuvremenije sredstvo,
vodeće u svijetu,
vodeće u svijetu,
07:01
that can perform air-quality forecasting
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za predviđanje kvalitete zraka
07:03
at an unprecedented
resolution and accuracy,
resolution and accuracy,
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do sada nezabilježene
razlučivosti i točnosti,
razlučivosti i točnosti,
07:08
benefiting the city that I drove into
one winter morning not very long ago,
one winter morning not very long ago,
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koristeći gradu prema kojem sam se vozio
jednog zimskog jutra, ne tako davno
jednog zimskog jutra, ne tako davno
07:14
and thought to myself,
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i mislio si,
07:16
"Something is wrong here.
I wonder what can be done?"
I wonder what can be done?"
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"Nešto je ovdje pogrešno.
Pitam se što se može učiniti?"
Pitam se što se može učiniti?"
07:20
So here is the point:
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Dakle, ovo je bit:
07:23
What if I'd not investigated
the problem of air pollution further?
the problem of air pollution further?
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Što bi bilo da nisam dalje istraživao
problem onečišćenja zraka?
problem onečišćenja zraka?
07:28
What if I'd not shown some concern
for the state of the environment
for the state of the environment
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Što da nisam pokazao brigu
za stanje okoliša
za stanje okoliša
07:32
and just hoped that someone,
somewhere, was taking care of the matter?
somewhere, was taking care of the matter?
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i da sam se samo nadao da se netko,
negdje, brine o rješavanju tog pitanja?
negdje, brine o rješavanju tog pitanja?
07:37
What I have learned is that,
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Naučio sam da,
07:39
when embarking on a challenging endeavor
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kada se upuštamo u izazovan poduhvat
07:41
that advances a cause
that we firmly believe in,
that we firmly believe in,
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koji služi svrsi u koju čvrsto vjerujemo,
07:44
it is important to focus
on the possibility of success
on the possibility of success
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važno je biti usredotočen
na mogućnost uspjeha
na mogućnost uspjeha
07:47
and consider the consequence
of not acting.
of not acting.
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i razmotriti posljedice nepoduzimanja.
07:51
We should not get distracted
by resistance and opposition,
by resistance and opposition,
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Ne bi nas smjeli omesti
otpor i neslaganje,
otpor i neslaganje,
07:55
but this should motivate us further.
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već bi nas dodatno trebali motivirati.
07:58
So wherever you are in the world,
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Gdje god da se nalazite u svijetu,
08:02
the next time you find
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sljedeći put kada prepoznate
08:04
that there's some
natural curiosity you have
natural curiosity you have
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da je nešto u vama izazvalo
08:06
that is being piqued,
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vašu prirodnu znatiželju,
08:08
and it's about something you care about,
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a radi se o nečemu do čega vam je stalo,
08:10
and you have some crazy or bold ideas,
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i imate neke lude ili smjele ideje,
08:13
and perhaps it's outside
the realm of your expertise,
the realm of your expertise,
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i, po mogućnosti, radi se o području
izvan vaše ekspertize,
izvan vaše ekspertize,
08:16
ask yourself this:
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zapitajte se sljedeće:
08:19
Why not?
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Zašto ne?
08:22
Why not just go ahead
and tackle the problem
and tackle the problem
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Zašto jednostavno ne krenuti
u rješavanje problema
u rješavanje problema
08:24
as best as you can, in your own way?
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najbolje što znate,
na svoj vlastiti način?
na svoj vlastiti način?
08:27
You may be pleasantly surprised.
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Mogli biste se ugodno iznenaditi.
08:31
Thank you.
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Hvala.
08:32
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tapiwa Chiwewe - AI researcherTapiwa Chiwewe, PhD, manages the advanced and applied artificial intelligence group at IBM Research – Africa, which uses artificial intelligence to develop solutions for some of Africa's grand challenges whilst making scientific advances.
Why you should listen
An engineer and researcher of many interests, Tapiwa Chiwewe has worked in academia and industry, developing commercial products and conducting scientific research in many areas that include mining, healthcare, defense, astronomy and the environment.
Chiwewe studied at the University of Pretoria in South Africa where he earned a PhD in Computer Engineering. His roles have ranged from junior lecturer and researcher, software engineer, followed by an extended stint with South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.
Tapiwa Chiwewe | Speaker | TED.com