TED@IBM
Tapiwa Chiwewe: You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems
塔皮瓦奇威威: 就算你不是專家，也可以解決大問題
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有一天，塔皮瓦奇威威開車進入約翰尼斯堡，他注意到城市籠罩在空氣污染中。他很好奇也很關心，但他並非環境專家－所以他做了一些研究，發現 2012 年全世界的死亡中有 14% 是因為家庭或環境空氣污染造成的。知道這些之後，加上一股想要貢獻心力的衝動，奇威威和他的同事開發了一個平台，能夠找出污染中的趨勢，協助都市計畫員做更好的決策。「有時候，只要有一個新鮮的觀點，一組新的技能，就可以改變條件，讓很了不起的事情能夠發生，」奇威威說：「但你得要有膽識去嘗試。」
Tapiwa Chiwewe - AI researcher
Tapiwa Chiwewe, PhD, manages the advanced and applied artificial intelligence group at IBM Research – Africa, which uses artificial intelligence to develop solutions for some of Africa's grand challenges whilst making scientific advances. Full bio
Tapiwa Chiwewe, PhD, manages the advanced and applied artificial intelligence group at IBM Research – Africa, which uses artificial intelligence to develop solutions for some of Africa's grand challenges whilst making scientific advances. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
One winter morning, a couple of years ago,
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幾年前的一個冬天早晨，
00:16
I was driving to work
in Johannesburg, South Africa,
in Johannesburg, South Africa,
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我開車去上班，地點是
南非的約翰尼斯堡，
南非的約翰尼斯堡，
00:19
and noticed a haze hanging over the city.
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我注意到全市籠罩在霧霾中。
00:22
I make that drive on most days,
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我幾乎天天會駛過那條路，
00:25
so it was unusual
that I hadn't noticed this before.
that I hadn't noticed this before.
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但以前都沒注意到這現象，
這點很不尋常。
這點很不尋常。
00:28
Johannesburg is known
for its distinctive skyline,
for its distinctive skyline,
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約翰尼斯堡以特別的天際線聞名，
00:31
which I could barely see that morning.
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那天早上卻幾乎看不見。
00:34
It didn't take long for me to realize
that I was looking at an enormous cloud
that I was looking at an enormous cloud
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沒多久，我就意會過來了，
原來我看到的是一大片
原來我看到的是一大片
00:38
of air pollution.
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空氣污染。
00:40
The contrast between
the scenic environment I knew
the scenic environment I knew
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我所知道的景色和這被煙霧遮蓋的
00:44
and this smog-covered skyline
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天際線之間有明顯對比，
00:46
stirred up something within me.
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讓我內心產生起伏。
00:49
I was appalled by the possibility
of this city of bright and vivid sunsets
of this city of bright and vivid sunsets
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我擔心很有可能，
這個有著鮮明生動日落的城市
這個有著鮮明生動日落的城市
00:54
being overrun by a dull haze.
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會被晦暗的霧霾壟照。
00:57
At that moment, I felt an urge
to do something about it,
to do something about it,
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那時，我有個衝動，想要做點什麼，
01:01
but I didn't know what.
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但我不知道該做什麼。
01:03
All I knew was
I couldn't just stand idly by.
I couldn't just stand idly by.
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我只知道，我不能袖手旁觀。
01:07
The main challenge was,
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主要的難處在於，
01:09
I didn't know much
about environmental science
about environmental science
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我不太了解環境科學、
01:13
air-quality management
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空氣品質管理，
01:15
or atmospheric chemistry.
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或大氣化學。
01:17
I am a computer engineer,
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我是電腦工程師，
01:19
and I was pretty sure I couldn't code
my way out of this air pollution problem.
my way out of this air pollution problem.
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我很確定，空氣污染問題
不能靠寫程式解決。
不能靠寫程式解決。
01:23
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:24
Who was I to do anything about this issue?
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我算哪根蔥，
能為這個議題做出貢獻？
能為這個議題做出貢獻？
01:27
I was but a citizen.
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我不過是個市井小民。
01:31
In the following years,
I learned a very important lesson,
I learned a very important lesson,
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接下來幾年，我學到了
很重要的一課，
很重要的一課，
01:35
a lesson we all need to take to heart
if we are to work towards a better future.
if we are to work towards a better future.
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若想要努力朝更好的未來邁進，
我們都應該把這一課銘記在心。
我們都應該把這一課銘記在心。
01:40
Even if you're not an expert
in a particular domain,
in a particular domain,
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即使你不是特定領域的專家，
01:44
your outside expertise may hold the key
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你在外面的專長有可能反而是
01:47
to solving big problems
within that domain.
within that domain.
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在該領域中解決重大問題的關鍵。
01:50
Sometimes the unique perspective you have
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有時，你獨有的觀點，
01:53
can result in unconventional thinking
that can move the needle,
that can move the needle,
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會帶來不一樣的非慣例思考，
進而左右局勢，
進而左右局勢，
01:57
but you need to be bold enough to try.
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但你得要有膽識去嘗試。
02:01
That's the only way you'll ever know.
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那是唯一能知道結果的方式。
02:04
What I knew back then
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那時，我知道的是，
02:06
was that if I was even going
to try to make a difference,
to try to make a difference,
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如果我要去嘗試造成改變，
02:10
I had to get smart
about air pollution first,
about air pollution first,
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我得先要對空氣污染有多一點知識，
02:13
and so I became a student again.
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所以，我又回去當學生了。
02:17
I did a bit of basic research
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我做了一點基本的研究，
02:19
and soon learned that air pollution
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很快就發現，空氣污染
02:21
is the world's biggest
environmental health risk.
environmental health risk.
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是世界上最大的環境健康風險。
02:25
Data from the World Health Organization
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來自世界衛生組織的資料顯示
02:28
shows that almost 14 percent
of all deaths worldwide in 2012
of all deaths worldwide in 2012
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2012 年全世界
所有的死亡中，有近 14%
所有的死亡中，有近 14%
02:33
were attributable to household
and ambient air pollution,
and ambient air pollution,
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都是因為家庭及環境的
空氣污染所造成，
空氣污染所造成，
02:37
with most occurring
in low- and middle-income countries.
in low- and middle-income countries.
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大多數都發生在中低收入的國家。
02:41
Ambient air pollution alone
causes more deaths each year
causes more deaths each year
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每年，單單是環境空氣
污染所造成的死亡數
污染所造成的死亡數
02:45
than malaria and HIV/AIDS.
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就超過瘧疾和愛滋病。
02:48
In Africa, premature deaths
from unsafe sanitation
from unsafe sanitation
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在非洲，因為衛生不夠安全
02:52
or childhood malnutrition
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或兒時營養不良造成的過早死亡，
02:53
pale in comparison
to deaths due to air pollution,
to deaths due to air pollution,
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完全比不上空氣污染造成的死亡，
02:57
and it comes at a huge economic cost:
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且這背後的經濟成本代價非常大：
03:00
over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013,
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2013 年就超過四千億美元，
03:04
according to a study by the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
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這數據來自經濟合作暨
發展組織的研究報告。
發展組織的研究報告。
03:09
Now, in my work,
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在我的工作中，
03:12
I explore new frontiers
for artificial intelligence,
for artificial intelligence,
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我要為人工智慧去探索新境界，
03:17
where the symbiotic relationship
between man and machine
between man and machine
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要讓人類和機器之間的共生關係
03:20
can find a beneficial footing
and help us to make better decisions.
and help us to make better decisions.
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能夠找到有益的立足點，
並協助我們做更好的決策。
並協助我們做更好的決策。
03:25
As I thought about
the air pollution problem,
the air pollution problem,
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當我在思考空氣污染問題時，
03:28
it became clear that we needed
to find a way to make better decisions
to find a way to make better decisions
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我發現我們需要找到
一種比較好的決策方法，
一種比較好的決策方法，
03:32
about how we manage air pollution,
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來決定我們要如何管理空氣污染，
03:34
and given the scale of the problem,
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且問題的規模既然這麼大，
03:36
it was necessary to do it
in a collaborative way.
in a collaborative way.
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勢必得要用協同合作的方式來進行。
03:40
So I decided I'd better get to know
some people working within the field.
some people working within the field.
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所以，我決定，我最好能認識
一些在那個領域中工作的人。
一些在那個領域中工作的人。
03:45
I started to speak to officials
from the City of Johannesburg
from the City of Johannesburg
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我開始跟約翰尼斯堡
03:48
and other surrounding cities,
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以及周圍其他城市的官員交流，
03:50
and I engaged the local
scientific community,
scientific community,
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我也去參加當地的科學社區，
03:53
and I also made a few cold calls.
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我也打了一些推銷電話。
03:57
The process of engagement I embarked upon
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我所參與的這個過程，
03:59
helped me to develop
a deeper understanding of the problem.
a deeper understanding of the problem.
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協助我發展出對這個問題
更深一層的了解。
更深一層的了解。
04:03
It also helped me to avoid the trap
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它也協助我避開我這一行的人
04:05
people in my profession sometimes
fall into when trying to innovate,
fall into when trying to innovate,
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在試圖創新時常會落入的陷阱，
04:09
where we are quick to apply a technology
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我們會很快就應用一種技術，
04:11
before we've firmly grasped
the problem at hand.
the problem at hand.
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卻還沒有對手上的問題
有完全的了解。
有完全的了解。
04:15
I began to develop an idea
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我開始萌生出一個點子，
04:17
about what I could do
to improve the situation.
to improve the situation.
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我想出了我能做什麼
來改善這個情況。
來改善這個情況。
04:20
I started by simply asking myself
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一開始，我只是問我自己，
04:23
how I could bring together
in some meaningful way
in some meaningful way
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我要如何用某種有意義的方式，
04:25
my skills in software engineering
and artificial intelligence
and artificial intelligence
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把我在軟體工程和人工智慧的技能，
04:29
and the expertise of the people
I'd reached out to.
I'd reached out to.
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和我去接觸的人的專長做結合。
04:33
I wanted to create an online
air-quality management platform
air-quality management platform
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我想要創建一個線上的
空氣品質管理平台，
空氣品質管理平台，
04:37
that would uncover trends in pollution
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它能夠發現污染中的趨勢，
04:39
and project into the future
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用來做未來預測，
04:41
to determine what outcomes
can be expected.
can be expected.
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來判斷可能會發生的結果。
04:44
I was determined to see my idea
translate into a practical solution,
translate into a practical solution,
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我很堅決要讓我的想法
變成實際的解決方案，
變成實際的解決方案，
04:49
but I faced uncertainty
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但我要面對不確定性，
04:52
and had no guarantee of success.
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且無法保證一定會成功。
04:55
What I had was a very particular set
of engineering skills,
of engineering skills,
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我擁有的，是非常
特別的一組工程技能，
特別的一組工程技能，
05:00
skills I'd acquired over my career
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在我的職涯中取得的技能，
05:03
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:04
that were new to people who had
been working on the air pollution problem
been working on the air pollution problem
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對於多年來都在處理
空氣污染問題的那些人，
空氣污染問題的那些人，
05:08
for so many years.
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我的技能是全新的。
05:09
What I have come to realize is that
sometimes just one fresh perspective,
sometimes just one fresh perspective,
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我漸漸了解，有時候，
只要有一個新鮮的觀點，
只要有一個新鮮的觀點，
05:14
one new skill set,
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一組新的技能，
05:15
can make the conditions right
for something remarkable to happen.
for something remarkable to happen.
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就可以改變條件，
讓很了不起的事情能夠發生。
讓很了不起的事情能夠發生。
05:20
Our willpower and imagination
are a guiding light,
are a guiding light,
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我們的意志力和想像力
是引導我們的光，
是引導我們的光，
05:23
enabling us to chart new paths
and navigate through obstacles.
and navigate through obstacles.
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讓我們能在地圖上畫出新路徑，
引導我們穿過障礙。
引導我們穿過障礙。
05:28
Armed with a firmer understanding
of the air pollution problem,
of the air pollution problem,
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在對於空氣污染問題
有更紮實的了解之後，
有更紮實的了解之後，
05:31
and having managed to source
over a decade's worth of data
over a decade's worth of data
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且找到辦法取得了超過十年的資料，
05:35
on air pollutant levels
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上面記錄約翰尼斯堡及其周圍地區
空氣污染程度和氣象條件，
空氣污染程度和氣象條件，
05:36
and the meteorological conditions
for in and around Johannesburg,
for in and around Johannesburg,
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05:41
my colleagues from South Africa
and China and myself
and China and myself
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我和南非及中國的同事一起
05:45
created an air-quality
decision support system
decision support system
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創建了一個空氣品質決策支援系統，
05:48
that lives in the cloud.
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放在雲端。
05:50
This software system
analyzes historical and real-time data
analyzes historical and real-time data
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這項軟體系統能分析
歷史資料和即時資料，
歷史資料和即時資料，
05:54
to uncover the spatial-temporal
trends in pollution.
trends in pollution.
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找出在污染中的
「空間—時間」趨勢。
「空間—時間」趨勢。
05:57
We then used new
machine learning technology
machine learning technology
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接著，我們採用新的機器學習技術，
06:00
to predict future levels of pollution
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來預測未來的污染程度，
06:03
for several different pollutants
days in advance.
days in advance.
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能針對好幾種污染物，
在幾天前就做出預測。
在幾天前就做出預測。
06:06
This means that citizens
can make better decisions
can make better decisions
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這意味著，市民能做出更好的決策，
06:10
about their daily movements
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決定他們每天的活動，
06:12
and about where to settle their families.
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決定要將家人安置在何處。
06:14
We can predict adverse
pollution events ahead of time,
pollution events ahead of time,
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我們能夠事先預測有害的污染事件，
06:18
identify heavy polluters,
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辨識出嚴重的污染源，
06:19
and they can be ordered
by the relevant authorities
by the relevant authorities
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如此一來，相關當權機關就可以下令
06:22
to scale back their operations.
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要求它們重新調整營運。
06:25
Through assisted scenario planning,
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透過協助性質的情境規劃，
06:27
city planners can also make
better decisions
better decisions
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都市計畫員也能做出更好的決策，
06:30
about how to extend infrastructure,
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決定如何將基礎建設做延伸，
06:32
such as human settlements
or industrial zones.
or industrial zones.
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比如人類住區或工業區。
06:36
We completed a pilot of our technology
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我們已經完成了這項技術的測試版，
06:38
that was run over a period of 120 days,
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執行了 120 天，
06:42
covering all of South Africa.
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含蓋了整個南非。
06:45
Our results were confirmed
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我們的結果得到了確認，
06:47
when we demonstrated a tight correlation
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因為我們得以呈現出在預測資料
06:49
between the forecasting data
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和我們從地面取得的實際資料
06:52
and the data we were getting
on the ground.
on the ground.
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之間有著密切的相關性。
06:55
Through our leadership,
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透過我們的領導，
06:57
we have brought cutting-edge,
world-leading assets
world-leading assets
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我們帶來了引領世界的尖端資產，
07:01
that can perform air-quality forecasting
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能進行空氣品質預測，
07:03
at an unprecedented
resolution and accuracy,
resolution and accuracy,
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解析度和正確率都是前所未見的，
07:08
benefiting the city that I drove into
one winter morning not very long ago,
one winter morning not very long ago,
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讓我不久之前在冬天早晨
開車進入的那個城市能夠受惠，
開車進入的那個城市能夠受惠，
07:14
and thought to myself,
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那時我還心想：
07:16
"Something is wrong here.
I wonder what can be done?"
I wonder what can be done?"
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「這裡出了某種問題。
不知道我能做什麼？」
不知道我能做什麼？」
07:20
So here is the point:
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所以，重點是，
07:23
What if I'd not investigated
the problem of air pollution further?
the problem of air pollution further?
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若我當初沒有進一步調查
空氣污染的問題，會如何？
空氣污染的問題，會如何？
07:28
What if I'd not shown some concern
for the state of the environment
for the state of the environment
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若我當初沒有去關心環境狀況，
07:32
and just hoped that someone,
somewhere, was taking care of the matter?
somewhere, was taking care of the matter?
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而只是希望某個地方的某個人
會把事情處理好，會如何？
會把事情處理好，會如何？
07:37
What I have learned is that,
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我所學到的是，
07:39
when embarking on a challenging endeavor
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當要著手進行一項很有挑戰性
07:41
that advances a cause
that we firmly believe in,
that we firmly believe in,
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且能夠推動我們堅信之理念的嘗試時，
07:44
it is important to focus
on the possibility of success
on the possibility of success
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重要的是要把焦點放在
成功的可能性上，
成功的可能性上，
07:47
and consider the consequence
of not acting.
of not acting.
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並去思考不採取行動會有什麼後果。
07:51
We should not get distracted
by resistance and opposition,
by resistance and opposition,
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我們不應被抗拒和反對給分心，
07:55
but this should motivate us further.
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這反而應該會更進一步激勵我們。
07:58
So wherever you are in the world,
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所以，不論你在世界的哪個角落，
08:02
the next time you find
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下一次，當你發現
08:04
that there's some
natural curiosity you have
natural curiosity you have
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你天生的某種好奇心被激起時，
08:06
that is being piqued,
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08:08
and it's about something you care about,
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且它和你在乎的事物有關，
08:10
and you have some crazy or bold ideas,
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且你有某種瘋狂或大膽的點子，
08:13
and perhaps it's outside
the realm of your expertise,
the realm of your expertise,
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也許它超出了你的專業領域，
08:16
ask yourself this:
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記得，問問自己這個問題：
08:19
Why not?
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為什麼不？
08:22
Why not just go ahead
and tackle the problem
and tackle the problem
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為什麼不用你自己的方式，
盡你所能，放手一搏
去處理那個問題？
去處理那個問題？
08:24
as best as you can, in your own way?
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08:27
You may be pleasantly surprised.
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你可能會得到很棒的驚喜。
08:31
Thank you.
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謝謝。
08:32
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tapiwa Chiwewe - AI researcherTapiwa Chiwewe, PhD, manages the advanced and applied artificial intelligence group at IBM Research – Africa, which uses artificial intelligence to develop solutions for some of Africa's grand challenges whilst making scientific advances.
Why you should listen
An engineer and researcher of many interests, Tapiwa Chiwewe has worked in academia and industry, developing commercial products and conducting scientific research in many areas that include mining, healthcare, defense, astronomy and the environment.
Chiwewe studied at the University of Pretoria in South Africa where he earned a PhD in Computer Engineering. His roles have ranged from junior lecturer and researcher, software engineer, followed by an extended stint with South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.
Tapiwa Chiwewe | Speaker | TED.com