TEDSalon Berlin 2014
Thomas Piketty: New thoughts on capital in the twenty-first century
Thomas Piketty: Nove misli o kapitalu v 21. stoletju
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Francoski ekonomist Thomas Piketty je leta 2014 povzročil pravo senzacijo s svojo knjigo o preprosti in brutalni razlagi ekonomske neenakosti: r > g (kar pomeni, da je delež donosa na kapital v splošnem višji od gospodarske rasti). V tem govoru razloži goro podatkov, s katero je prišel do zaključka, da ekonomska neenakost ni nič novega, a postaja vse hujša, njeni učinki pa morda radikalni.
Thomas Piketty - Economist
Thomas Piketty is an economist and professor at the Paris School of Economics. His 2014 book, "Capital in the Twenty-first Century," caused a sensation upon publication. Full bio
Thomas Piketty is an economist and professor at the Paris School of Economics. His 2014 book, "Capital in the Twenty-first Century," caused a sensation upon publication. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
It's very nice to be here tonight.
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Lepo je biti z vami nocoj.
00:14
So I've been working on the history of income
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Zadnjih 15 let se ukvarjam z zgodovino
prihodkov in z razporeditvijo bogastva
prihodkov in z razporeditvijo bogastva
00:18
and wealth distribution for the past 15 years,
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in eden od zanimivih izsledkov
na podlagi zgodovinskih dokazov je,
na podlagi zgodovinskih dokazov je,
00:21
and one of the interesting lessons
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00:25
coming from this historical evidence
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00:27
is indeed that, in the long run,
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da na dolgi rok stopnja donosa na kapital
ponavadi preseže gospodarsko rast,
ponavadi preseže gospodarsko rast,
00:29
there is a tendency for
the rate of return of capital
the rate of return of capital
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00:33
to exceed the economy's growth rate,
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00:35
and this tends to lead to
high concentration of wealth.
high concentration of wealth.
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kar vodi v visoko koncentracijo bogastva.
00:38
Not infinite concentration of wealth,
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Ne neskončno koncentracijo,
ampak v večji prepad med r in g,
ampak v večji prepad med r in g,
00:40
but the higher the gap between r and g,
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00:43
the higher the level of inequality of wealth
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višji ko je delež neenakosti premoženja,
h kateremu se nagiba družba.
h kateremu se nagiba družba.
00:46
towards which society tends to converge.
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O tej temeljni sili bom govoril danes,
00:49
So this is a key force that
I'm going to talk about today,
I'm going to talk about today,
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a naj kar takoj povem,
da to ni edina pomembna stvar
da to ni edina pomembna stvar
00:52
but let me say right away
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00:54
that this is not the only important force
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v odnosu prihodka in razdelitve bogastva,
00:57
in the dynamics of income
and wealth distribution,
and wealth distribution,
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00:59
and there are many other forces that play
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še veliko drugih sil igra
pomembno vlogo v dolgoročni dinamiki
pomembno vlogo v dolgoročni dinamiki
01:01
an important role in the long-run dynamics
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prihodkov in razporeditve premoženja.
01:04
of income and wealth distribution.
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01:06
Also there is a lot of data
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Treba je tudi še zbrati veliko podatkov.
01:08
that still needs to be collected.
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Danes vemo nekoliko več kot nekoč,
a še vedno premalo,
a še vedno premalo,
01:09
We know a little bit more today
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01:12
than we used to know,
but we still know too little,
but we still know too little,
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in obstaja veliko različnih procesov -
ekonomskih, socialnih, političnih -
ekonomskih, socialnih, političnih -
01:15
and certainly there are
many different processes —
many different processes —
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01:17
economic, social, political —
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ki jih je treba bolje preučiti.
01:20
that need to be studied more.
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01:21
And so I'm going to focus today on this simple force,
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Danes bom razdelal to enostavno silo,
a to ne pomeni, da druge ne obstajajo.
a to ne pomeni, da druge ne obstajajo.
01:24
but that doesn't mean that other important forces
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01:26
do not exist.
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01:28
So most of the data I'm going to present
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Večina podatkov na to temo
prihaja iz te baze,
prihaja iz te baze,
01:30
comes from this database
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01:32
that's available online:
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ki je na voljo na spletu:
"World Top Incomes".
"World Top Incomes".
01:33
the World Top Incomes Database.
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Je največja obstoječa
baza podatkov o neenakosti
baza podatkov o neenakosti
01:35
So this is the largest existing
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01:37
historical database on inequality,
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01:39
and this comes from the effort
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in je rezultat truda
preko 30 znanstvenikov iz več deset držav.
preko 30 znanstvenikov iz več deset držav.
01:41
of over 30 scholars from several dozen countries.
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01:45
So let me show you a couple of facts
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Naj vam pokažem par dejstev iz te baze,
01:47
coming from this database,
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01:49
and then we'll return to r bigger than g.
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potem pa se vrnemo na r,
ki je višji kot g.
ki je višji kot g.
01:51
So fact number one is that there has been
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Prvo dejstvo: prišlo je
do velikega obrata v razmerju
do velikega obrata v razmerju
01:53
a big reversal in the ordering of income inequality
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neenakosti prihodkov med ZDA in Evropo
v zadnjem stoletju.
v zadnjem stoletju.
01:56
between the United States and Europe
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01:58
over the past century.
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02:00
So back in 1900, 1910, income inequality was actually
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Leta 1900 ali 1910 je bila
neenakost prihodkov
neenakost prihodkov
02:03
much higher in Europe than in the United States,
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v Evropi mnogo višja kot v ZDA.
02:06
whereas today, it is a lot higher in the United States.
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Danes pa je veliko višja v ZDA.
02:09
So let me be very clear:
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Naj pojasnim:
02:10
The main explanation for this is not r bigger than g.
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Razlaga ni v tem, da je r večji kot g.
02:13
It has more to do with changing supply and demand
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Gre bolj za spremembo v
ponudbi in povpraševanju
ponudbi in povpraševanju
02:17
for skill, the race between education and technology,
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za veščinami, za tekmo med
izobrazbo in tehnologijo,
izobrazbo in tehnologijo,
02:20
globalization, probably more unequal access
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globalizacijo, verjetno bolj neenak
dostop do veščin v ZDA,
dostop do veščin v ZDA,
02:24
to skills in the U.S.,
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02:25
where you have very good, very top universities
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kjer so zelo dobre, vrhunske univerze,
02:28
but where the bottom part of the educational system
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a kjer dno izobraževalnega sistema
ni tako dobro,
ni tako dobro,
02:30
is not as good,
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02:31
so very unequal access to skills,
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zato je dostop do veščin neenak.
02:33
and also an unprecedented rise
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Poleg tega pa prihaja do nezaslišane rasti
plač najvišjih menedžerjev v ZDA,
plač najvišjih menedžerjev v ZDA,
02:35
of top managerial compensation of the United States,
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02:38
which is difficult to account for
just on the basis of education.
just on the basis of education.
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kar je težko upravičiti
samo na podlagi izobrazbe.
samo na podlagi izobrazbe.
02:41
So there is more going on here,
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Še več pomembnih stvari je,
a danes o njih ne bom toliko govoril,
a danes o njih ne bom toliko govoril,
02:43
but I'm not going to talk too much about this today,
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02:46
because I want to focus on wealth inequality.
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saj se hočem posvetiti
neenakosti bogastva.
neenakosti bogastva.
02:48
So let me just show you a very simple indicator
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Tole je enostaven indikator
prihodkovne neenakosti.
prihodkovne neenakosti.
02:51
about the income inequality part.
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Tole je delež celotnega prihodka
najbogatejših deset odstotkov.
najbogatejših deset odstotkov.
02:54
So this is the share of total income
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02:56
going to the top 10 percent.
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02:58
So you can see that one century ago,
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Vidite, da je bil pred sto leti
med 45 in 50 odstotki v Evropi
med 45 in 50 odstotki v Evropi
03:00
it was between 45 and 50 percent in Europe
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03:04
and a little bit above 40 percent in the U.S.,
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in malo nad 40 odstotki v ZDA.
03:06
so there was more inequality in Europe.
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V Evropi je bila neenakost večja.
03:09
Then there was a sharp decline
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Potem je prišel strm padec
v prvi polovici 20. stoletja,
v prvi polovici 20. stoletja,
03:11
during the first half of the 20th century,
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03:13
and in the recent decade, you can see that
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v zadnjem desetletju pa lahko vidite,
da so ZDA postale bolj neenake kot Evropa,
da so ZDA postale bolj neenake kot Evropa,
03:16
the U.S. has become more unequal than Europe,
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03:19
and this is the first fact I just talked about.
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to je prvo dejstvo.
03:22
Now, the second fact is more about wealth inequality,
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Drugo dejstvo je bolj povezano
z neenakostjo premoženja
z neenakostjo premoženja
03:26
and here the central fact is that wealth inequality
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in pri tem je bistveno,
da je taka neenakost
da je taka neenakost
03:29
is always a lot higher than income inequality,
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vedno precej večja od neenakosti prihodkov
03:31
and also that wealth inequality,
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in da je neenakost premoženja,
03:34
although it has also increased in recent decades,
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čeprav v zadnjih desetletjih narašča,
03:36
is still less extreme today
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še vedno ni tako skrajna
kot pred stoletjem,
kot pred stoletjem,
03:38
than what it was a century ago,
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03:40
although the total quantity of wealth
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čeprav si je celotno premoženje
v primerjavi s prihodki opomoglo
v primerjavi s prihodki opomoglo
03:43
relative to income has now recovered
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03:45
from the very large shocks
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od velikih šokov prve svetovne vojne,
velike depresije, druge svetovne vojne.
velike depresije, druge svetovne vojne.
03:46
caused by World War I, the Great Depression,
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03:48
World War II.
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03:50
So let me show you two graphs
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Pokazal vam bom dva grafa,
ki predstavljata drugo in tretje dejstvo.
ki predstavljata drugo in tretje dejstvo.
03:52
illustrating fact number two and fact number three.
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03:55
So first, if you look at the level of wealth inequality,
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Najprej, če pogledamo nivo
neenakosti premoženja,
neenakosti premoženja,
03:59
this is the share of total wealth
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tole je delež celotnega premoženja,
04:02
going to the top 10 percent of wealth holders,
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ki ga ima najbogatejših
10 odstotkov lastnikov,
10 odstotkov lastnikov,
04:05
so you can see the same kind of reversal
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vidite lahko podoben obrat
04:07
between the U.S. and Europe that we had before
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med ZDA in Evropo kot prej
pri neenakosti prihodkov.
pri neenakosti prihodkov.
04:10
for income inequality.
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04:12
So wealth concentration was higher
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Koncentracija premoženja je bila
pred 100 leti v Evropi večja kot v ZDA,
zdaj pa je obratno.
zdaj pa je obratno.
04:15
in Europe than in the U.S. a century ago,
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04:17
and now it is the opposite.
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04:19
But you can also show two things:
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Pokazati pa se da še dve stvari:
04:21
First, the general level of wealth inequality
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prvič, splošni nivo neenakosti premoženja
je vedno višji od neenakosti prihodkov.
je vedno višji od neenakosti prihodkov.
04:25
is always higher than income inequality.
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04:27
So remember, for income inequality,
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Torej, pri neenakosti prihodkov
je najbogatejših 10 odstotkov
je najbogatejših 10 odstotkov
04:30
the share going to the top 10 percent
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04:32
was between 30 and 50 percent of total income,
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imelo 30 - 50 odstotkov vseh prihodkov,
04:36
whereas for wealth, the share is always
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pri premoženju pa je delež
vedno med 60 in 90 odstotki.
vedno med 60 in 90 odstotki.
04:39
between 60 and 90 percent.
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04:41
Okay, so that's fact number one,
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To je prvo dejstvo,
ki je pomembno za to, kar sledi.
ki je pomembno za to, kar sledi.
04:43
and that's very important for what follows.
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04:45
Wealth concentration is always
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Koncentracija premoženja je vedno
dosti večja od koncentracije prihodkov.
dosti večja od koncentracije prihodkov.
04:46
a lot higher than income concentration.
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04:48
Fact number two is that the rise
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Drugo dejstvo:
rast neenakosti premoženja
v zadnjih desetletjih
v zadnjih desetletjih
04:52
in wealth inequality in recent decades
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04:55
is still not enough to get us back to 1910.
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še vedno ni blizu tisti iz 1910.
04:59
So the big difference today,
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Velika razlika danes je,
v ogromni neenakosti premoženja,
v ogromni neenakosti premoženja,
05:01
wealth inequality is still very large,
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saj ima najbogatejših 10 odstotkov
60 - 70 odstotkov vsega,
60 - 70 odstotkov vsega,
05:03
with 60, 70 percent of total wealth for the top 10,
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a dobra novica je, da smo pravzaprav
na boljšem kot pred stoletjem,
na boljšem kot pred stoletjem,
05:06
but the good news is that it's actually
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05:08
better than one century ago,
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05:10
where you had 90 percent in
Europe going to the top 10.
Europe going to the top 10.
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ko je 90 odstotkov bogastva v Evropi
imelo le 10 odstotkov ljudi.
imelo le 10 odstotkov ljudi.
05:13
So today what you have
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Danes imamo t. i. srednjih 40 odstotkov,
05:15
is what I call the middle 40 percent,
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05:17
the people who are not in the top 10
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ljudi, ki niso v zgornjih 10 %
in ne v spodnjih 50 odstotkih,
in ne v spodnjih 50 odstotkih,
05:19
and who are not in the bottom 50,
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05:21
and what you can view as the wealth middle class
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to je torej srednji razred,
ki si lasti 20 - 30 odstotkov
ki si lasti 20 - 30 odstotkov
05:23
that owns 20 to 30 percent
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skupnega premoženja,
nacionalnega premoženja,
nacionalnega premoženja,
05:26
of total wealth, national wealth,
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05:28
whereas they used to be poor, a century ago,
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medtem ko so bili pred sto leti revni,
saj srednjega razreda ni bilo.
saj srednjega razreda ni bilo.
05:31
when there was basically no wealth middle class.
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Gre za pomembno spremembo
05:34
So this is an important change,
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05:35
and it's interesting to see that wealth inequality
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in zanimivo je, da se
neenakost premoženja
neenakost premoženja
05:40
has not fully recovered to pre-World War I levels,
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ni docela vrnila na raven
pred prvo svetovno vojno,
pred prvo svetovno vojno,
čeprav smo skupno količino premoženja
vrnili na to raven. Ok?
vrnili na to raven. Ok?
05:43
although the total quantity of wealth has recovered.
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05:47
Okay? So this is the total value
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To je skupna vrednost
premoženja glede na prihodek
premoženja glede na prihodek
05:49
of wealth relative to income,
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in vidite lahko, da je predvsem Evropa
skoraj na ravni pred prvo svetovno vojno.
skoraj na ravni pred prvo svetovno vojno.
05:51
and you can see that in particular in Europe,
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05:53
we are almost back to the pre-World War I level.
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Gre pravzaprav za
dve različni plati zgodbe.
dve različni plati zgodbe.
05:57
So there are really two
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05:59
different parts of the story here.
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Ena se ukvarja s celotno količino
premoženja, ki ga kopičimo,
premoženja, ki ga kopičimo,
06:01
One has to do with
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06:02
the total quantity of wealth that we accumulate,
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in samo po sebi ni nič slabega
v kopičenju veliko premoženja,
v kopičenju veliko premoženja,
06:05
and there is nothing bad per se, of course,
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06:07
in accumulating a lot of wealth,
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06:08
and in particular if it is more diffuse
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sploh, če je razpršeno
in ni koncentrirano.
in ni koncentrirano.
06:11
and less concentrated.
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06:13
So what we really want to focus on
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Osredotočiti se želimo
na dolgoročni razvoj neenakosti premoženja
na dolgoročni razvoj neenakosti premoženja
06:15
is the long-run evolution of wealth inequality,
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06:18
and what's going to happen in the future.
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in na to, kaj se bo zgodilo v prihodnje.
06:20
How can we account for the fact that
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Kako lahko pojasnimo,
da je bila neenakost premoženja
da je bila neenakost premoženja
06:22
until World War I, wealth inequality was so high
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do prve svetovne vojne tako velika
in je še rasla
in je še rasla
06:26
and, if anything, was rising to even higher levels,
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in kaj to pomeni za prihodnost?
06:29
and how can we think about the future?
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06:32
So let me come to some of the explanations
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Ponudil vam bom nekaj razlag
in napovedi za prihodnost.
in napovedi za prihodnost.
06:36
and speculations about the future.
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06:38
Let me first say that
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Najprej naj povem,
da je najbrž najboljša razlaga
da je najbrž najboljša razlaga
06:40
probably the best model to explain
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06:42
why wealth is so much
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mnogo večje koncentracije
premoženja kot prihodkov
premoženja kot prihodkov
06:44
more concentrated than income
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06:46
is a dynamic, dynastic model
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v dinamičnem, dinastičnem modelu,
kjer posamezniki na dolgi rok
kopičijo premoženje iz različnih razlogov.
kopičijo premoženje iz različnih razlogov.
06:49
where individuals have a long horizon
160
397736
2464
06:52
and accumulate wealth for all sorts of reasons.
161
400200
2756
06:54
If people were accumulating wealth
162
402956
2610
Če bi ga kopičili
samo iz cikličnih razlogov,
samo iz cikličnih razlogov,
06:57
only for life cycle reasons,
163
405566
2003
06:59
you know, to be able to consume
164
407569
2013
da bi lahko trošili, ko ostarijo,
07:01
when they are old,
165
409582
1587
07:03
then the level of wealth inequality
166
411169
2373
potem bi neenakost premoženja
07:05
should be more or less in line
167
413542
2317
šla bolj ali manj vzporedno
z nivojem neenakosti prihodkov.
z nivojem neenakosti prihodkov.
07:07
with the level of income inequality.
168
415859
1969
07:09
But it will be very difficult to explain
169
417828
1928
A težko bo le
s cikličnim modelom razložiti,
s cikličnim modelom razložiti,
07:11
why you have so much more wealth inequality
170
419756
2194
zakaj toliko večja neenakost premoženja
od neenakosti prihodkov,
od neenakosti prihodkov,
07:13
than income inequality
171
421950
1484
07:15
with a pure life cycle model,
172
423434
1276
07:16
so you need a story
173
424710
2031
zato potrebujemo zgodbo,
07:18
where people also care
174
426741
1688
v kateri je kopičenje premoženja
za ljudi pomembno iz drugih razlogov.
za ljudi pomembno iz drugih razlogov.
07:20
about wealth accumulation for other reasons.
175
428429
2531
07:22
So typically, they want to transmit
176
430960
1924
Tipično je, da želijo premoženje
prenesti na novo generacijo, na otroke,
prenesti na novo generacijo, na otroke,
07:24
wealth to the next generation, to their children,
177
432884
3326
ali pa ga želijo kopičiti zaradi prestiža
in moči, ki spremlja imetje.
in moči, ki spremlja imetje.
07:28
or sometimes they want to accumulate wealth
178
436210
1768
07:29
because of the prestige, the
power that goes with wealth.
power that goes with wealth.
179
437978
2768
Za kopičenje premoženja morajo torej
obstajati razlogi poleg cikličnega,
obstajati razlogi poleg cikličnega,
07:32
So there must be other reasons
180
440746
1384
07:34
for accumulating wealth than just life cycle
181
442130
1990
07:36
to explain what we see in the data.
182
444120
2768
da bi razložili te podatke.
07:38
Now, in a large class of dynamic models
183
446888
3346
V velikem delu dinamičnih modelov
07:42
of wealth accumulation
184
450234
1976
kopičenja premoženja
s tako dinastičnim motivom
s tako dinastičnim motivom
07:44
with such dynastic motive for accumulating wealth,
185
452210
3558
07:47
you will have all sorts of random,
186
455768
2846
pride do različnih naključnih
multiplikativnih šokov.
multiplikativnih šokov.
07:50
multiplicative shocks.
187
458614
923
07:51
So for instance, some families
188
459537
2249
Nekatere družine
imajo denimo veliko otrok,
imajo denimo veliko otrok,
07:53
have a very large number of children,
189
461786
1687
07:55
so the wealth will be divided.
190
463473
1766
zato se premoženje deli.
07:57
Some families have fewer children.
191
465239
1890
Nekatere jih imajo manj.
07:59
You also have shocks to rates of return.
192
467129
2228
So tudi šoki stopnje donosa.
08:01
Some families make huge capital gains.
193
469357
2097
Nekatere družine imajo ogromen
dobiček od kapitala. Druge slabo vlagajo.
dobiček od kapitala. Druge slabo vlagajo.
08:03
Some made bad investments.
194
471454
1795
08:05
So you will always have some mobility
195
473249
2241
Vedno bo obstajala določena mobilnost
v toku premoženja.
v toku premoženja.
08:07
in the wealth process.
196
475490
1438
08:08
Some people will move up,
some people will move down.
some people will move down.
197
476928
2375
Nekateri se vzpnejo, drugi padejo.
08:11
The important point is that,
198
479303
1652
Pomembno je, da bo v vsakem modelu
08:12
in any such model,
199
480955
1010
08:13
for a given variance of such shocks,
200
481965
2556
pri dani varianci šokov
ravnotežna raven neenakosti premoženja
ravnotežna raven neenakosti premoženja
08:16
the equilibrium level of wealth inequality
201
484521
2036
08:18
will be a steeply rising function of r minus g.
202
486557
4837
strmo naraščajoča funkcija r minus g.
08:23
And intuitively, the reason why the difference
203
491394
2869
Razlog za to, da je razlika
med stopnjo donosa na premoženje
med stopnjo donosa na premoženje
08:26
between the rate of return to wealth
204
494263
1844
08:28
and the growth rate is important
205
496107
1755
in stopnjo rasti pomembna,
08:29
is that initial wealth inequalities
206
497862
2312
je intuitivno v tem,
da se začetna neenakost premoženja
da se začetna neenakost premoženja
08:32
will be amplified at a faster pace
207
500174
2391
veča hitreje, če je r minus g večji.
08:34
with a bigger r minus g.
208
502565
2069
08:36
So take a simple example,
209
504634
1474
Enostaven primer:
če je r 5% in g znaša 1%,
če je r 5% in g znaša 1%,
08:38
with r equals five percent and g equals one percent,
210
506108
3766
morajo lastniki vložiti
le petino kapitala, da bi zagotovili
le petino kapitala, da bi zagotovili
08:41
wealth holders only need to reinvest
211
509874
2108
08:43
one fifth of their capital income to ensure
212
511982
2639
08:46
that their wealth rises as fast
213
514621
2733
rast premoženja v enaki meri,
kot raste gospodarstvo.
kot raste gospodarstvo.
08:49
as the size of the economy.
214
517354
1913
Tako je lažje krepiti ogromno bogastvo,
08:51
So this makes it easier
215
519267
1383
08:52
to build and perpetuate large fortunes
216
520650
1766
saj lahko potrošite štiri petine
08:54
because you can consume four fifths,
217
522416
1955
08:56
assuming zero tax,
218
524371
1739
pri ničelnem obdavčenju,
ter ponovno vložite petino.
ter ponovno vložite petino.
08:58
and you can just reinvest one fifth.
219
526110
1661
08:59
So of course some families
will consume more than that,
will consume more than that,
220
527771
2588
Nekatere družine seveda trošijo več,
druge manj, zato obstaja
09:02
some will consume less, so there will be
221
530359
1743
09:04
some mobility in the distribution,
222
532102
1755
določena mobilnost v distribuciji
09:05
but on average, they only need to reinvest one fifth,
223
533857
2846
a povprečno morajo naložiti le petino,
09:08
so this allows high wealth inequalities to be sustained.
224
536703
3769
kar omogoča ohranjanje velikih
neenakost premoženja.
neenakost premoženja.
09:12
Now, you should not be surprised
225
540472
2497
Ne bodite presenečeni, če rečem,
09:14
by the statement that r can be bigger than g forever,
226
542969
3536
da je r lahko vedno večji od g,
saj je bilo tako
09:18
because, in fact, this is what happened
227
546505
1616
večino zgodovine človeštva.
09:20
during most of the history of mankind.
228
548121
2071
09:22
And this was in a way very obvious to everybody
229
550192
3351
To je bilo na nek način vsem jasno,
09:25
for a simple reason, which is that growth
230
553543
1778
in sicer zato, ker je bila rast
09:27
was close to zero percent
231
555321
2188
blizu nič odstotkov
09:29
during most of the history of mankind.
232
557509
1621
večino zgodovine človeštva.
09:31
Growth was maybe 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 percent,
233
559130
3532
Rast je bila morda 0.1, 0.2
ali 0.3 odstotka,
ali 0.3 odstotka,
ob zelo počasni rasti prebivalstva
09:34
but very slow growth of population
234
562662
1996
09:36
and output per capita,
235
564658
1997
in proizvodnje per capita,
09:38
whereas the rate of return on capital
236
566655
1884
medtem ko stopnja kapitalskega donosa
09:40
of course was not zero percent.
237
568539
1856
seveda ni bila ničelna.
09:42
It was, for land assets, which was
238
570395
2036
Za nepremičnine,
kar je tradicionalna oblika
09:44
the traditional form
239
572431
1809
09:46
of assets in preindustrial societies,
240
574240
2401
lastnine v predindustrijskih družbah,
je bila tipično petodstotna.
je bila tipično petodstotna.
09:48
it was typically five percent.
241
576641
1763
09:50
Any reader of Jane Austen would know that.
242
578404
3786
Vsak bralec Jane Austen to ve.
Če želite letni prihodek 1000 funtov,
09:54
If you want an annual income of 1,000 pounds,
243
582190
2908
morate imeti kapital
09:57
you should have a capital value
244
585098
1642
09:58
of 20,000 pounds so that
245
586740
1856
v višini 20.000 funtov,
10:00
five percent of 20,000 is 1,000.
246
588596
2550
saj je 5% od 20000 prav 1000.
10:03
And in a way, this was
247
591146
2017
Na nek način je bil to
10:05
the very foundation of society,
248
593163
1778
temelj družbe,
10:06
because r bigger than g
249
594941
3035
saj je r višji od g
omogočal lastnikom premoženja,
10:09
was what allowed holders of wealth and assets
250
597976
4124
da so živeli od dobička na kapital
10:14
to live off their capital income
251
602100
2690
10:16
and to do something else in life
252
604790
2700
ter se ukvarjali z drugimi stvarmi
10:19
than just to care about their own survival.
253
607490
3195
kot je boj za golo preživetje.
10:22
Now, one important conclusion
254
610685
2160
Pomemben zaključek
moje zgodovinske raziskave je,
10:24
of my historical research is that
255
612845
1991
10:26
modern industrial growth did not change
256
614836
2711
da več gospodarske rasti ni spremenilo
10:29
this basic fact as much as one might have expected.
257
617547
2824
tega temeljnega dejstva toliko,
kot bi pričakovali.
kot bi pričakovali.
10:32
Of course, the growth rate
258
620371
1679
Seveda je stopnja rasti
10:34
following the Industrial Revolution
259
622050
1808
po industrijski revoluciji
10:35
rose, typically from zero to one to two percent,
260
623858
4322
poskočila, od nič do enega,
dveh odstotkov,
dveh odstotkov,
10:40
but at the same time, the rate of return
261
628180
1930
a hkrati je zrasla tudi stopnja donosa
10:42
to capital also rose
262
630110
1645
na kapital
10:43
so that the gap between the two
263
631755
2425
in razlika med njima
10:46
did not really change.
264
634180
1456
se ni spremenila.
10:47
So during the 20th century,
265
635636
2250
V 20. stoletju
10:49
you had a very unique combination of events.
266
637886
2644
smo imeli edinstven sklop dogodkov.
Prvič, zelo nizko stopnjo donosa
10:52
First, a very low rate of return
267
640530
2017
10:54
due to the 1914 and 1945 war shocks,
268
642547
3016
zaradi šokov vojn leta 1914 in 1945,
10:57
destruction of wealth, inflation,
269
645563
2305
uničenja premoženja, inflacije,
10:59
bankruptcy during the Great Depression,
270
647868
1980
bankrota med veliko depresijo,
11:01
and all of this reduced
271
649848
1665
vse to je spustilo
11:03
the private rate of return to wealth
272
651513
1750
zasebno stopnjo donosa na premoženje
11:05
to unusually low levels
273
653263
1895
na nenavadno nizko raven
11:07
between 1914 and 1945.
274
655158
2339
med letoma 1914 in 1945.
11:09
And then, in the postwar period,
275
657497
1836
V povojnem obdobju
11:11
you had unusually high growth rate,
276
659333
3237
je bila stopnja rasti nenavadno visoka,
deloma zaradi obnove.
11:14
partly due to the reconstruction.
277
662570
2374
Veste, v Nemčiji, Franciji, na Japonskem
11:16
You know, in Germany, in France, in Japan,
278
664944
1925
11:18
you had five percent growth rate
279
666869
1551
je bila petodstotna rast
11:20
between 1950 and 1980
280
668420
3150
med letoma 1950 in 1980
11:23
largely due to reconstruction,
281
671570
1643
predvsem zaradi obnove
11:25
and also due to very large demographic growth,
282
673213
2351
pa tudi zaradi velike demografske rasti,
11:27
the Baby Boom Cohort effect.
283
675564
2141
zaradi baby boom učinka.
11:29
Now, apparently that's not going to last for very long,
284
677705
2438
To ne bo dolgo trajalo,
11:32
or at least the population growth
285
680143
1675
vsaj rast prebivalstva
11:33
is supposed to decline in the future,
286
681818
2768
naj bi v prihodnje upadla,
in najboljše projekcije kažejo,
11:36
and the best projections we have is that
287
684586
3656
11:40
the long-run growth is going to be closer
288
688242
1828
da bo dolgoročna rast bližje
11:42
to one to two percent
289
690070
1423
enemu do dvema odstotkoma
11:43
rather than four to five percent.
290
691493
1946
in ne štirim ali petim.
11:45
So if you look at this,
291
693439
2677
Poglejte tole,
11:48
these are the best estimates we have
292
696116
2141
to so najboljše ocene
11:50
of world GDP growth
293
698257
1656
svetovne rasti BDP-ja
11:51
and rate of return on capital,
294
699913
2359
ter stopnje donosa na kapital,
11:54
average rates of return on capital,
295
702272
2088
povprečne stopnje donosa,
11:56
so you can see that during most
296
704360
1068
in vidite lahko, da je bila
11:57
of the history of mankind,
297
705428
1517
večino zgodovine
11:58
the growth rate was very small,
298
706945
1613
stopnja rasti zelo nizka,
12:00
much lower than the rate of return,
299
708558
1834
mnogo nižja od stopnje donosa,
12:02
and then during the 20th century,
300
710392
2362
v 20. stoletju
12:04
it is really the population growth,
301
712754
2171
pa sta rast prebivalstva,
12:06
very high in the postwar period,
302
714925
2272
visoka predvsem v povojnem obdobju,
12:09
and the reconstruction process
303
717197
1600
ter proces obnove
12:10
that brought growth
304
718797
1573
pripeljala rast
12:12
to a smaller gap with the rate of return.
305
720370
3071
bližje stopnji donosa.
To so OZN-ove projekcije prebivalstva,
12:15
Here I use the United Nations population projections,
306
723441
3523
12:18
so of course they are uncertain.
307
726964
2476
seveda so negotove.
12:21
It could be that we all start
308
729440
1391
Morda bomo v prihodnje
12:22
having a lot of children in the future,
309
730831
2106
vsi imeli veliko otrok
12:24
and the growth rates are going to be higher,
310
732937
2765
in stopnje rasti bodo višje,
12:27
but from now on,
311
735702
1249
a zaenkrat
12:28
these are the best projections we have,
312
736951
2802
so to najboljše projekcije,
12:31
and this will make global growth
313
739753
1934
in tako bo svetovna rast
12:33
decline and the gap between
314
741687
2756
upadla in razlika
12:36
the rate of return go up.
315
744443
2003
s stopnjo donosa bo zrasla.
12:38
Now, the other unusual event
316
746446
2862
Drug nenavaden dogodek
12:41
during the 20th century
317
749308
1671
v 20. stoletju
12:42
was, as I said,
318
750979
1329
je bilo, kot rečeno,
12:44
destruction, taxation of capital,
319
752308
2316
uničenje, obdavčenje kapitala,
12:46
so this is the pre-tax rate of return.
320
754624
2735
to je stopnja donosa pred obdavčitvijo.
12:49
This is the after-tax rate of return,
321
757359
2979
Taka je po obdavčitvi
12:52
and after destruction,
322
760338
1566
in po uničenju,
kar je za dolgo časa prineslo
12:53
and this is what brought
323
761904
1777
povprečno stopnjo donosa
12:55
the average rate of return
324
763681
1688
12:57
after tax, after destruction,
325
765369
1789
po obdavčitvi, po uničenju,
12:59
below the growth rate during a long time period.
326
767158
2420
pod raven rasti.
13:01
But without the destruction,
327
769578
1674
A pred uničenjem,
13:03
without the taxation, this
would not have happened.
would not have happened.
328
771252
2475
brez davka, se to ne bi zgodilo.
13:05
So let me say that the balance between
329
773727
3243
Ravnotežje med
13:08
returns on capital and growth
330
776970
2356
donosom na kapital in rastjo
13:11
depends on many different factors
331
779326
1862
je odvisno od številnih faktorjev,
13:13
that are very difficult to predict:
332
781188
2085
ki jih je težko predvideti:
tehnologija in razvoj
13:15
technology and the development
333
783273
2115
13:17
of capital-intensive techniques.
334
785388
2584
kapitalsko intenzivnih tehnik.
Trenutno so
najbolj kapitalsko intenzivni sektorji
najbolj kapitalsko intenzivni sektorji
13:19
So right now, the most capital-intensive sectors
335
787972
3019
gospodarstva nepremičninski, stanovanjski,
13:22
in the economy are the real estate sector, housing,
336
790991
3376
13:26
the energy sector, but it could be in the future
337
794367
2862
energetski, a v prihodnje
bomo morda v številnih sektorjih imeli
veliko več robotov
veliko več robotov
13:29
that we have a lot more robots in a number of sectors
338
797229
3712
13:32
and that this would be a bigger share
339
800941
1889
in bo v tem večji delež
13:34
of the total capital stock that it is today.
340
802830
1910
celotnih zalog kapitala kot danes.
13:36
Well, we are very far from this,
341
804740
1994
Še daleč od tega smo,
kar se sedaj dogaja
13:38
and from now, what's going on
342
806734
1766
pri nepremičninah, energetiki,
13:40
in the real estate sector, the energy sector,
343
808500
1789
13:42
is much more important for the total capital stock
344
810289
2126
je veliko bolj pomembno kot celotne
zaloge kapitala in kapitalski deleži.
zaloge kapitala in kapitalski deleži.
13:44
and capital share.
345
812415
1134
13:45
The other important issue
346
813549
2033
Druga pomembna stvar
13:47
is that there are scale effects
in portfolio management,
in portfolio management,
347
815582
2150
je, da obstajajo učinki obsega
pri upravljanju portfeljev
pri upravljanju portfeljev
13:49
together with financial complexity,
348
817732
2419
ter finančna kompleksnost,
finančna deregulacija,
finančna deregulacija,
13:52
financial deregulation,
349
820151
1450
13:53
that make it easier to get higher rates of return
350
821601
2709
kar omogoča višje deleže donosa
13:56
for a large portfolio,
351
824310
1627
velikim portfeljem
in je posebej pomembno
13:57
and this seems to be particularly strong
352
825937
2663
za milijarderje, za velike donacije.
14:00
for billionaires, large capital endowments.
353
828600
1982
14:02
Just to give you one example,
354
830582
2290
Samo za primer,
14:04
this comes from the Forbes billionaire rankings
355
832872
3333
tole je s Forbesovega
seznama milijarderjev
seznama milijarderjev
14:08
over the 1987-2013 period,
356
836205
3330
v obdobju 1987-2013
in vidite, da so najbogatejši
14:11
and you can see the very top wealth holders
357
839535
2788
14:14
have been going up at six, seven percent per year
358
842323
3117
rasli po šest, sedem odstotkov letno,
14:17
in real terms above inflation,
359
845440
2391
v realnem smislu nad inflacijo,
14:19
whereas average income in the world,
360
847831
2372
medtem ko je povprečni globalni prihodek,
14:22
average wealth in the world,
361
850203
1363
povprečno svetovno premoženje,
14:23
have increased at only two percent per year.
362
851566
3383
raslo samo za dva odstotka letno.
Enako velja
14:26
And you find the same
363
854949
1729
za velike univerzitetne donacije,
14:28
for large university endowments —
364
856678
1276
14:29
the bigger the initial endowments,
365
857954
2268
čim večja je začetna donacija,
tem večji je delež donosa.
14:32
the bigger the rate of return.
366
860222
2068
Kaj lahko storimo?
14:34
Now, what could be done?
367
862290
1678
14:35
The first thing is that I think we need
368
863968
2396
Najprej potrebujemo
14:38
more financial transparency.
369
866364
2115
več finančne transparentnosti.
Premalo vemo
o globalnih tokovih premoženja,
o globalnih tokovih premoženja,
14:40
We know too little about global wealth dynamics,
370
868479
3841
zato potrebujemo mednarodni prenos
14:44
so we need international transmission
371
872320
1900
bančnih informacij.
14:46
of bank information.
372
874220
1262
Potrebujemo globalni register
finančne lastnine,
finančne lastnine,
14:47
We need a global registry of financial assets,
373
875482
2686
bolj koordinirano obdavčitev premoženja,
14:50
more coordination on wealth taxation,
374
878168
2491
celo nizek davek na premoženje
14:52
and even wealth tax with a small tax rate
375
880659
3112
bo podal informacije,
14:55
will be a way to produce information
376
883771
2216
da lahko politike prilagodimo
14:57
so that then we can adapt our policies
377
885987
2682
15:00
to whatever we observe.
378
888669
1836
opažanjem.
15:02
And to some extent, the fight
379
890505
1838
Do neke mere nas boj
15:04
against tax havens
380
892343
1481
proti davčnim oazam
15:05
and automatic transmission of information
381
893824
1815
ter avtomatski prenos informacij
silita v to smer.
15:07
is pushing us in this direction.
382
895639
1851
15:09
Now, there are other ways to redistribute wealth,
383
897490
2324
Tudi drugi načini prerazdelitve premoženja
15:11
which it can be tempting to use.
384
899814
2957
so privlačni.
15:14
Inflation:
385
902771
1356
Inflacija:
15:16
it's much easier to print money
386
904127
1699
lažje je tiskati denar
15:17
than to write a tax code, so that's very tempting,
387
905826
2155
kot pisati davčne zakone,
zato je privlačno,
zato je privlačno,
15:19
but sometimes you don't know
what you do with the money.
what you do with the money.
388
907981
2120
a včasih ne vemo,
kaj bi z denarjem.
kaj bi z denarjem.
15:22
This is a problem.
389
910101
1647
V tem je problem.
15:23
Expropriation is very tempting.
390
911748
1863
Razlastitev je privlačna.
15:25
Just when you feel some people get too wealthy,
391
913611
2261
Ko se zdi, da so nekateri prebogati,
jih enostavno razlastite.
jih enostavno razlastite.
15:27
you just expropriate them.
392
915872
1294
A to ni zelo učinkovit način
15:29
But this is not a very efficient way
393
917166
1712
regulacije toka premoženja.
15:30
to organize a regulation of wealth dynamics.
394
918878
2833
Vojna je še manj učinkovita,
15:33
So war is an even less efficient way,
395
921711
2479
zato imam raje progresivno obdavčitev,
15:36
so I tend to prefer progressive taxation,
396
924190
2336
a seveda bo zgodovina (smeh)
15:38
but of course, history — (Laughter) —
397
926526
2574
15:41
history will invent its own best ways,
398
929100
1735
izumila svoje načine,
15:42
and it will probably involve
399
930835
1698
ki bodo verjetno vsebovali
kombinacijo vsega tega.
15:44
a combination of all of these.
400
932533
1734
Hvala.
15:46
Thank you.
401
934267
1866
(aplavz)
15:48
(Applause)
402
936133
2137
15:50
Bruno Giussani: Thomas Piketty. Thank you.
403
938270
5559
Bruno Giussani: Hvala, Thomas Piketty.
15:55
Thomas, I want to ask you two or three questions,
404
943829
1879
Thomas, par stvari bi vas vprašal,
15:57
because it's impressive how you're
in command of your data, of course,
in command of your data, of course,
405
945708
3859
odlično obvladate svoje podatke, seveda,
16:01
but basically what you suggest is
406
949567
3794
a vaša teza je,
da je rastoča koncentracija premoženja
16:05
growing wealth concentration is kind of
407
953361
1573
nekako naravni trend kapitalizma,
16:06
a natural tendency of capitalism,
408
954934
1924
16:08
and if we leave it to its own devices,
409
956858
3538
in če temu pustimo prosto pot,
lahko ogrozi sam sistem,
16:12
it may threaten the system itself,
410
960396
2240
zato pravite, da moramo
16:14
so you're suggesting that we need to act
411
962636
1726
16:16
to implement policies that redistribute wealth,
412
964362
3038
uresničiti politike, ki
prerazdelijo premoženje,
prerazdelijo premoženje,
vključno z
16:19
including the ones we just saw:
413
967400
1721
progresivno obdavčitvijo, itd.
16:21
progressive taxation, etc.
414
969121
1471
Kako realne so te
16:22
In the current political context,
415
970592
2139
16:24
how realistic are those?
416
972731
1991
v trenutnem političnem stanju?
16:26
How likely do you think that it is
417
974722
1811
Kako verjetno je,
16:28
that they will be implemented?
418
976533
1744
da jih bomo izvedli?
16:30
Thomas Piketty: Well, you know, I think
419
978277
1211
T. Piketty: Mislim, da če
16:31
if you look back through time,
420
979488
1781
pogledate nazaj skozi čas,
16:33
the history of income, wealth and taxation
421
981269
2651
je zgodovina prihodkov, premoženja
in obdavčitve polna presenečenj.
16:35
is full of surprise.
422
983920
1602
Zato nisem vznesen nad tistimi,
ki vnaprej vedo,
ki vnaprej vedo,
16:37
So I am not terribly impressed
423
985522
2605
16:40
by those who know in advance
424
988127
1568
kaj se bo ali ne bo zgodilo.
16:41
what will or will not happen.
425
989695
1631
Pred sto leti
16:43
I think one century ago,
426
991326
1704
so mnogi trdili,
16:45
many people would have said
427
993030
1569
da progresivne obdavčitve ne bo,
16:46
that progressive income taxation would never happen
428
994599
2138
16:48
and then it happened.
429
996737
1520
pa je.
16:50
And even five years ago,
430
998257
1989
Še pred petimi leti
16:52
many people would have said that bank secrecy
431
1000246
2352
so mnogi trdili, da je tajnost
16:54
will be with us forever in Switzerland,
432
1002598
2025
švicarskih bank večna,
16:56
that Switzerland was too powerful
433
1004623
1788
da je Švica premočna
za preostali svet,
16:58
for the rest of the world,
434
1006411
1489
pa je bilo za spremembo treba le
16:59
and then suddenly it took a few U.S. sanctions
435
1007900
2961
par sankcij ZDA proti švicarskim bankam,
17:02
against Swiss banks for a big change to happen,
436
1010861
2622
17:05
and now we are moving toward
437
1013483
1703
da zdaj gremo proti
večji finančni transparentnosti.
večji finančni transparentnosti.
17:07
more financial transparency.
438
1015186
1676
17:08
So I think it's not that difficult
439
1016862
4281
Zato mislim, da ni tako težko
17:13
to better coordinate politically.
440
1021143
2469
doseči boljše politične koordinacije.
17:15
We are going to have a treaty
441
1023612
2058
Nastala bo pogodba
17:17
with half of the world GDP around the table
442
1025670
3049
s sodelovanjem polovice svetovnega BDP-ja
z ZDA in EU
17:20
with the U.S. and the European Union,
443
1028719
2002
17:22
so if half of the world GDP is not enough
444
1030721
2126
in če polovica BDP-ja ni dovolj
17:24
to make progress on financial transparency
445
1032847
2666
za napredek finančne transparentnosti
17:27
and minimal tax for multinational corporate profits,
446
1035513
4084
in minimalni davek
na dobiček multinacionalk,
na dobiček multinacionalk,
17:31
what does it take?
447
1039597
1664
kaj potem je?
17:33
So I think these are not technical difficulties.
448
1041261
3623
Mislim, da to niso tehnične težave.
Mislim, da lahko napredujemo,
17:36
I think we can make progress
449
1044884
1924
če smo bolj pragmatični do teh stvari,
17:38
if we have a more pragmatic
approach to these questions
approach to these questions
450
1046808
2587
17:41
and we have the proper sanctions
451
1049395
1901
če imamo prave sankcije
17:43
on those who benefit from financial opacity.
452
1051296
2991
za tiste, ki izkoriščajo finančne sence.
17:46
BG: One of the arguments
453
1054287
1653
BG: Eden od
protiargumentov je,
17:47
against your point of view
454
1055940
1433
17:49
is that economic inequality
455
1057373
1442
da ekonomska neenakost
17:50
is not only a feature of capitalism
but is actually one of its engines.
but is actually one of its engines.
456
1058815
3637
ni le del kapitalizma,
ampak je eden njegovih motorjev.
ampak je eden njegovih motorjev.
Če z ukrepi manjšamo neenakost
17:54
So we take measures to lower inequality,
457
1062452
2801
17:57
and at the same time we lower growth, potentially.
458
1065253
2407
in hkrati nižamo rast, denimo.
Kaj pravite na to?
17:59
What do you answer to that?
459
1067660
1560
TP: Mislim, da neenakost
18:01
TP: Yeah, I think inequality
460
1069220
1729
18:02
is not a problem per se.
461
1070949
1889
sama po sebi ni problem.
18:04
I think inequality up to a point
462
1072838
2040
Do neke mere lahko
18:06
can actually be useful for innovation and growth.
463
1074878
2652
pomaga inovacijam in rasti.
18:09
The problem is, it's a question of degree.
464
1077530
2193
Težava je v stopnji.
18:11
When inequality gets too extreme,
465
1079723
2544
Ko neenakost postane skrajna,
18:14
then it becomes useless for growth
466
1082267
2889
potem ne pripomore k rasti,
18:17
and it can even become bad
467
1085156
1462
postane slaba celo zato,
18:18
because it tends to lead to high perpetuation
468
1086618
3057
ker spodbuja ohranjanje
neenakosti skozi čas
18:21
of inequality over time
469
1089675
1636
ter nizko mobilnost.
18:23
and low mobility.
470
1091311
1866
18:25
And for instance, the kind of wealth concentrations
471
1093177
3286
Denimo, koncentracije premoženja,
18:28
that we had in the 19th century
472
1096463
2877
kakršne smo imeli v 19. stoletju
in vse do 1. svetovne vojne
18:31
and pretty much until World War I
473
1099340
1925
18:33
in every European country
474
1101265
1765
v vseh evropskih državah,
18:35
was, I think, not useful for growth.
475
1103030
2094
niso pripomogle k rasti.
18:37
This was destroyed by a combination
476
1105124
2102
Uničila jih je kombinacija
18:39
of tragic events and policy changes,
477
1107226
2341
tragičnih dogodkov in političnih sprememb,
18:41
and this did not prevent growth from happening.
478
1109567
2272
kar ni preprečilo rasti.
18:43
And also, extreme inequality can be bad
479
1111839
3443
Skrajna neenakost lahko škoduje
tudi demokratičnim institucijam,
tudi demokratičnim institucijam,
18:47
for our democratic institutions
480
1115282
2198
če ustvarja zelo neenak dostop
do političnega glasu,
do političnega glasu,
18:49
if it creates very unequal access to political voice,
481
1117480
2383
in vpliv zasebnega denarja
18:51
and the influence of private money
482
1119863
1865
v politiki ZDA, je, menim,
18:53
in U.S. politics, I think,
483
1121728
2002
18:55
is a matter of concern right now.
484
1123730
2540
trenutno skrb vzbujajoč.
Ne želimo se vrniti v take skrajnosti,
18:58
So we don't want to return to that kind of extreme,
485
1126270
3076
19:01
pre-World War I inequality.
486
1129346
2090
v neenakost pred 1. svetovno vojno.
19:03
Having a decent share of the national wealth
487
1131436
3674
Spodoben delež nacionalnega bogastva
v rokah srednjega razreda ni slaba stvar.
19:07
for the middle class is not bad for growth.
488
1135110
3390
Pravzaprav koristi
19:10
It is actually useful
489
1138500
1281
tako enakosti kot učinkovitosti.
19:11
both for equity and efficiency reasons.
490
1139781
3084
BG: Na začetku sem omenil,
19:14
BG: I said at the beginning
491
1142865
1665
da so vašo knjigo kritizirali.
19:16
that your book has been criticized.
492
1144530
2109
Nekatere podatke so kritizirali.
19:18
Some of your data has been criticized.
493
1146639
1241
19:19
Some of your choice of data sets has been criticized.
494
1147880
2466
Tudi določen izbor podatkov.
19:22
You have been accused of cherry-picking data
495
1150346
1876
Obtožili so vas jemanja podatkov,
19:24
to make your case. What do you answer to that?
496
1152222
2737
ki so podprli vašo tezo.
Kaj pravite na to?
Kaj pravite na to?
19:26
TP: Well, I answer that I am very happy
497
1154959
1927
TP: Zelo sem vesel,
19:28
that this book is stimulating debate.
498
1156886
2467
da ta knjiga sproža razpravo.
19:31
This is part of what it is intended for.
499
1159353
2481
To je eden njenih namenov.
19:33
Look, the reason why I put all the data online
500
1161834
3294
Razlog, da sem vse podatke objavil
skupaj z natančnimi izračuni
19:37
with all of the detailed computation
501
1165128
1846
19:38
is so that we can have
an open and transparent
an open and transparent
502
1166974
2334
je v tem, da omogočim
odprto razpravo.
19:41
debate about this.
503
1169308
1669
Na vsak dvom
19:42
So I have responded point by point
504
1170977
1766
sem jasno odgovoril.
19:44
to every concern.
505
1172743
1792
Če bi moral knjigo še enkrat napisati,
19:46
Let me say that if I was to rewrite the book today,
506
1174535
3113
19:49
I would actually conclude
507
1177648
1541
bi pravzaprav sklenil,
19:51
that the rise in wealth inequality,
508
1179189
2194
da je rast neenakosti premoženja,
19:53
particularly in the United States,
509
1181383
1927
sploh v ZDA,
višja od te, ki je v knjigi.
19:55
has been actually higher
than what I report in my book.
than what I report in my book.
510
1183310
2373
19:57
There is a recent study by Saez and Zucman
511
1185683
3245
Nedavna študija Saeza in Zucmana
z novimi podatki,
20:00
showing, with new data
512
1188928
1592
20:02
which I didn't have at the time of the book,
513
1190520
1777
ki jih tedaj nisem imel, kaže,
20:04
that wealth concentration in the U.S. has risen
514
1192297
2527
da je koncentracija premoženja
v ZDA zrasla
v ZDA zrasla
20:06
even more than what I report.
515
1194824
1936
še bolj, kot sem poročal.
20:08
And there will be other data in the future.
516
1196760
2031
Še novi podatki bodo prišli.
20:10
Some of it will go in different directions.
517
1198791
2151
Nekateri bodo kazali drugače.
20:12
Look, we put online almost every week
518
1200942
4099
Skoraj tedensko na spletu objavimo
posodobljeno serijo baze podatkov
World Top Income
World Top Income
20:17
new, updated series on the
World Top Income Database
World Top Income Database
519
1205041
2934
in to bomo nadaljevali,
20:19
and we will keep doing so in the future,
520
1207975
1900
sploh v hitro rastočih državah,
20:21
in particular in emerging countries,
521
1209875
2306
20:24
and I welcome all of those who want to contribute
522
1212181
2929
in veselim se vseh, ki želijo prispevati
20:27
to this data collection process.
523
1215110
2346
k temu zbiranju podatkov.
20:29
In fact, I certainly agree
524
1217456
2808
Seveda se strinjam,
20:32
that there is not enough
525
1220264
1614
da ni dovolj
20:33
transparency about wealth dynamics,
526
1221878
1878
preglednosti o dinamiki premoženja
in dober način za boljše podatke
20:35
and a good way to have better data
527
1223756
1915
20:37
would be to have a wealth tax
528
1225671
1865
bi bil skozi davek na premoženje
20:39
with a small tax rate to begin with
529
1227536
1571
z nizko začetno stopnjo,
20:41
so that we can all agree
530
1229107
2339
da bi se uskladili
o tem pomembnem razvoju
20:43
about this important evolution
531
1231446
1564
ter prilagodili politike opažanjem.
20:45
and adapt our policies to whatever we observe.
532
1233010
3327
Davki so vir znanja,
20:48
So taxation is a source of knowledge,
533
1236337
2062
to pa zdaj najbolj potrebujemo.
20:50
and that's what we need the most right now.
534
1238399
2936
BG: Thomas Piketty, najlepša hvala.
20:53
BG: Thomas Piketty, merci beaucoup.
535
1241335
1815
20:55
Thank you.
TP: Thank you. (Applause)
TP: Thank you. (Applause)
536
1243150
4000
Hvala vam.
TP: Hvala (aplavz)
TP: Hvala (aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Thomas Piketty - EconomistThomas Piketty is an economist and professor at the Paris School of Economics. His 2014 book, "Capital in the Twenty-first Century," caused a sensation upon publication.
Why you should listen
Is the global economy accelerating toward a future that’s incompatible with democracy? In this provocative talk about inequality and wealth, economist Thomas Piketty provides new context for his groundbreaking book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century.
More profile about the speakerThomas Piketty | Speaker | TED.com