TEDSalon Berlin 2014
Thomas Piketty: New thoughts on capital in the twenty-first century
Tomas Piketi (Thomas Piketty): Novi pogledi na kapital u 21. veku
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Francuski ekonomista, Tomas Piketi, izazvao je senzaciju početkom 2014. godine, svojom knjigom o jednostavnoj, brutalnoj formuli koja objašnjava ekonomsku nejednakost: r>g (što znači da je povraćaj kapitala uglavnom veći od ekonomskog rasta). On nam razjašnjava masu podataka koji su i njega samog naveli da zaključi: ekonomska nejednakost nije nova pojava, ali se pogoršava, sa mogućim radikalnim ishodima.
Thomas Piketty - Economist
Thomas Piketty is an economist and professor at the Paris School of Economics. His 2014 book, "Capital in the Twenty-first Century," caused a sensation upon publication. Full bio
Thomas Piketty is an economist and professor at the Paris School of Economics. His 2014 book, "Capital in the Twenty-first Century," caused a sensation upon publication. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
It's very nice to be here tonight.
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Veoma je lepo biti ovde večeras.
00:14
So I've been working on the history of income
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Izučavao sam istoriju prihoda
00:18
and wealth distribution for the past 15 years,
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i raspodelu bogatstva,
u poslednjih 15 godina,
u poslednjih 15 godina,
00:21
and one of the interesting lessons
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i jedna zanimljiva lekcija
00:25
coming from this historical evidence
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zasnovana na istorijskim podacima
00:27
is indeed that, in the long run,
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jeste da, zapravo, na duže staze,
00:29
there is a tendency for
the rate of return of capital
the rate of return of capital
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postoji tendencija
da stopa povratka kapitala
da stopa povratka kapitala
00:33
to exceed the economy's growth rate,
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nadmaši stopu rasta ekonomije
00:35
and this tends to lead to
high concentration of wealth.
high concentration of wealth.
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i ovo dovodi do gomilanja imovine.
00:38
Not infinite concentration of wealth,
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Ne gomilanja u nedogled,
00:40
but the higher the gap between r and g,
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ali što je veća razdaljina između r i g,
00:43
the higher the level of inequality of wealth
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to je veći stepen nejednakosti
među imovinama,
među imovinama,
00:46
towards which society tends to converge.
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ka čemu društvo, izgleda, stremi.
00:49
So this is a key force that
I'm going to talk about today,
I'm going to talk about today,
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Tako da, to je glavna sila
o kojoj ću da govorim danas,
o kojoj ću da govorim danas,
00:52
but let me say right away
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ali samo da kažem odmah
00:54
that this is not the only important force
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da ovo nije i jedina sila,
00:57
in the dynamics of income
and wealth distribution,
and wealth distribution,
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u dinamici prihoda i raspodele bogatstva,
00:59
and there are many other forces that play
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i da ima mnogih drugih sila koje igraju
01:01
an important role in the long-run dynamics
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važne uloge u dugoročnoj
dinamici prihoda
dinamici prihoda
01:04
of income and wealth distribution.
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i raspodeli bogatstva.
01:06
Also there is a lot of data
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Takođe, postoji pregršt podataka
01:08
that still needs to be collected.
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koje bi trebalo prikupiti.
01:09
We know a little bit more today
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Znamo malo više danas,
01:12
than we used to know,
but we still know too little,
but we still know too little,
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nego što smo znali pre,
ali, i dalje, suviše malo,
ali, i dalje, suviše malo,
01:15
and certainly there are
many different processes —
many different processes —
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i sigurno ima
puno različitih procesa -
puno različitih procesa -
01:17
economic, social, political —
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ekonomskih, društvenih, političkih -
01:20
that need to be studied more.
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koje bi trebalo više izučavati.
01:21
And so I'm going to focus today on this simple force,
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Tako da ću ja danas
da se držim ove jednostavne sile,
da se držim ove jednostavne sile,
01:24
but that doesn't mean that other important forces
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što ne znači da druge bitne sile
01:26
do not exist.
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ne postoje.
01:28
So most of the data I'm going to present
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Većina informacija koje ću izneti
01:30
comes from this database
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dolazi iz baze podataka
01:32
that's available online:
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koja je dostpuna onlajn:
01:33
the World Top Incomes Database.
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svetska baza podataka o prihodima.
01:35
So this is the largest existing
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Ovo je najveća postojeća
01:37
historical database on inequality,
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istorijska baza podataka
o nejednakosti, i ovo dolazi
01:39
and this comes from the effort
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od truda
01:41
of over 30 scholars from several dozen countries.
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preko 30 učenjaka
iz nekoliko desetina zemalja.
iz nekoliko desetina zemalja.
01:45
So let me show you a couple of facts
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Dozvolite mi da vam pokažem par činjenica
01:47
coming from this database,
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iz ove baze podataka,
01:49
and then we'll return to r bigger than g.
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a onda se vraćamo
na r koje je veće od g.
na r koje je veće od g.
01:51
So fact number one is that there has been
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Prva činjenica je da
je bio veliki preokret
je bio veliki preokret
01:53
a big reversal in the ordering of income inequality
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koji je otpočeo
nastajanje nejednakosti u prihodima
nastajanje nejednakosti u prihodima
01:56
between the United States and Europe
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između Sjedinjenih Država i Evrope
01:58
over the past century.
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u proteklom veku.
02:00
So back in 1900, 1910, income inequality was actually
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Između 1900. i 1910.
nejednakost prihoda je bila
nejednakost prihoda je bila
02:03
much higher in Europe than in the United States,
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veća u Evropi
nego u Sjedinjenim Državama,
nego u Sjedinjenim Državama,
02:06
whereas today, it is a lot higher in the United States.
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dok je danas, mnogo veća
u Sjedinjenim Državama.
u Sjedinjenim Državama.
02:09
So let me be very clear:
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Dopustite da razjasnim.
02:10
The main explanation for this is not r bigger than g.
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Glavno objašnjenje za ovo nije
r je veće od g.
r je veće od g.
02:13
It has more to do with changing supply and demand
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Više je u vezi
sa promenom zaliha i potražnje
sa promenom zaliha i potražnje
02:17
for skill, the race between education and technology,
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za veštinom, trkom između
obrazovanja i tehnologije,
obrazovanja i tehnologije,
02:20
globalization, probably more unequal access
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globalizacijom,
verovatno više nejednakih pristupa
verovatno više nejednakih pristupa
02:24
to skills in the U.S.,
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veštinama u SAD-u,
02:25
where you have very good, very top universities
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gde postoje vrlo dobre,
visoke škole
visoke škole
02:28
but where the bottom part of the educational system
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ali gde niži obrazovni sistem
02:30
is not as good,
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nije tako dobar,
02:31
so very unequal access to skills,
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time vidite,
izuzetno nejednak pristup veštinama.
izuzetno nejednak pristup veštinama.
02:33
and also an unprecedented rise
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I neprikosnoven rast
02:35
of top managerial compensation of the United States,
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vrhunskih menadžerskih kompenzacija
u Sjedinjenim Državama,
u Sjedinjenim Državama,
02:38
which is difficult to account for
just on the basis of education.
just on the basis of education.
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o kojima je teže govoriti,
samo sa stanovišta obrazovanja.
samo sa stanovišta obrazovanja.
02:41
So there is more going on here,
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Tu se mnogo više dešava,
02:43
but I'm not going to talk too much about this today,
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ali neću puno govoriti o tome danas,
02:46
because I want to focus on wealth inequality.
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jer želim da se skoncentrišem
na imovinsku nejednakost.
na imovinsku nejednakost.
02:48
So let me just show you a very simple indicator
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Dopustite da vam pokažem
veoma jednostavan indikator
veoma jednostavan indikator
02:51
about the income inequality part.
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o imovinskoj nejednakosti.
02:54
So this is the share of total income
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Ovaj deo je udeo ukupnog prihoda
02:56
going to the top 10 percent.
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koji ide u gornjih 10 procenata.
02:58
So you can see that one century ago,
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Tako da možete videti da je
jedan vek ranije,
jedan vek ranije,
03:00
it was between 45 and 50 percent in Europe
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bilo između 45 i 50 procenata u Evropi,
03:04
and a little bit above 40 percent in the U.S.,
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i malo više od 40 procenata u SAD-u,
03:06
so there was more inequality in Europe.
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tako da je bilo
više nejednakosti u Evropi.
više nejednakosti u Evropi.
03:09
Then there was a sharp decline
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Onda je došlo do naglog pada
03:11
during the first half of the 20th century,
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tokom prve polovine 20. veka,
03:13
and in the recent decade, you can see that
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a u skorijoj deceniji, možete videti
03:16
the U.S. has become more unequal than Europe,
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da su SAD imale
veću nejednakost od Evrope,
veću nejednakost od Evrope,
03:19
and this is the first fact I just talked about.
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i ovo je prva činjenica
o kojoj sam pričao.
o kojoj sam pričao.
03:22
Now, the second fact is more about wealth inequality,
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Sledeća činjenica
se više tiče imovinske nejednakosti,
se više tiče imovinske nejednakosti,
03:26
and here the central fact is that wealth inequality
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a glavna činjenica
je da je imovinska nejednakost,
je da je imovinska nejednakost,
03:29
is always a lot higher than income inequality,
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znatno veća od nejednakosti u prihodima,
03:31
and also that wealth inequality,
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takođe da imovinska nejednakost,
03:34
although it has also increased in recent decades,
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iako raste proteklih decenija,
03:36
is still less extreme today
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nije mnogo ekstremnija danas,
03:38
than what it was a century ago,
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nego što je bila vek ranije.
03:40
although the total quantity of wealth
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Iako je ukupna količina imovine
03:43
relative to income has now recovered
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relevantne za prihod,
sada obnovljena
sada obnovljena
03:45
from the very large shocks
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od velikih šokova
03:46
caused by World War I, the Great Depression,
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Prvog svetskog rata,
ekonomske krize,
ekonomske krize,
03:48
World War II.
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Drugog svetskog rata.
03:50
So let me show you two graphs
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Pokazaću vam dva grafika
03:52
illustrating fact number two and fact number three.
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koja prikazuju
činjenicu broj dva i činjenicu broj tri.
činjenicu broj dva i činjenicu broj tri.
03:55
So first, if you look at the level of wealth inequality,
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Ako pogledate nivo imovinske nejednakosti,
03:59
this is the share of total wealth
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ovo je udeo ukupne imovine
04:02
going to the top 10 percent of wealth holders,
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koji ide u gornjih 10 procenata
imovinskih vlasnika.
imovinskih vlasnika.
04:05
so you can see the same kind of reversal
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Time možete primetiti
istu vrstu preokreta
istu vrstu preokreta
04:07
between the U.S. and Europe that we had before
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između SAD-a i Evrope,
koju smo i ranije imali
koju smo i ranije imali
04:10
for income inequality.
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kod nejednakosti prihoda.
04:12
So wealth concentration was higher
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Gomilanje imovine je bilo veće
04:15
in Europe than in the U.S. a century ago,
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u Evropi nego u SAD-u,
vek ranije,
vek ranije,
04:17
and now it is the opposite.
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a sada je obratno.
04:19
But you can also show two things:
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Ali možemo pokazati još dve stvari:
04:21
First, the general level of wealth inequality
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prvo, nivo imovinske nejednakosti,
generalno
generalno
04:25
is always higher than income inequality.
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uvek biva veći
od nejednakosti u prihodima.
od nejednakosti u prihodima.
04:27
So remember, for income inequality,
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Zapamtite, za nejednakost u prihodima,
04:30
the share going to the top 10 percent
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udeo koji ide u gornjih 10 procenata
04:32
was between 30 and 50 percent of total income,
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je bio između 30 i 50 procenata
ukupnih prihoda,
ukupnih prihoda,
04:36
whereas for wealth, the share is always
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dok je kod imovine, udeo uvek
04:39
between 60 and 90 percent.
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između 60 i 90 procenata.
04:41
Okay, so that's fact number one,
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Okej, to je činjenica broj jedan
04:43
and that's very important for what follows.
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koja je jako važna zbog onog što sledi.
04:45
Wealth concentration is always
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Gomilanje imovine je uvek
04:46
a lot higher than income concentration.
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mnogo veće od gomilanja prihoda.
04:48
Fact number two is that the rise
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Činjenica broj dva je da je porast
04:52
in wealth inequality in recent decades
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imovinske nejednakosti proteklih decenija
04:55
is still not enough to get us back to 1910.
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nedovoljan da nas vrati u 1910.
04:59
So the big difference today,
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Tako da, danas postoji velika razlika,
05:01
wealth inequality is still very large,
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imovinska nejednakost
je, opet, pozamašna
je, opet, pozamašna
05:03
with 60, 70 percent of total wealth for the top 10,
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sa 60, 70 procenata od ukupne imovine
u top 10 procenata,
u top 10 procenata,
05:06
but the good news is that it's actually
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ali su zapravo dobre vesti
05:08
better than one century ago,
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da je bolje nego vek ranije,
05:10
where you had 90 percent in
Europe going to the top 10.
Europe going to the top 10.
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gde 90 procenata, u Evropi,
odlazi u top 10.
odlazi u top 10.
05:13
So today what you have
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Danas imamo,
05:15
is what I call the middle 40 percent,
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ono što ja nazivam
srednjih 40 procenata,
srednjih 40 procenata,
05:17
the people who are not in the top 10
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ljudi koji nisu u top 10
05:19
and who are not in the bottom 50,
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i koji nisu u poslednjih 50,
05:21
and what you can view as the wealth middle class
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koje možete gledati
kao imovinsku srednju klasu
kao imovinsku srednju klasu
05:23
that owns 20 to 30 percent
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koja ima 20 do 30 procenata
05:26
of total wealth, national wealth,
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ukupne imovine, državne imovine,
05:28
whereas they used to be poor, a century ago,
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a bili su siromašni vek ranije,
05:31
when there was basically no wealth middle class.
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praktično je bila
srednja klasa bez imovine.
srednja klasa bez imovine.
05:34
So this is an important change,
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Ovo je bitna promena,
05:35
and it's interesting to see that wealth inequality
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i zanimljivo je videti
da imovinska nejednakost
da imovinska nejednakost
05:40
has not fully recovered to pre-World War I levels,
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nije potpuno povraćena u stanje
pre Prvog svetskog rata,
pre Prvog svetskog rata,
05:43
although the total quantity of wealth has recovered.
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iako je ukupna količina imovine
povraćena.
povraćena.
05:47
Okay? So this is the total value
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Okej? Ovo je ukupna vrednost
05:49
of wealth relative to income,
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imovine u odnosu na prihode,
05:51
and you can see that in particular in Europe,
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i možete primetiti da smo,
naročito u Evropi,
naročito u Evropi,
05:53
we are almost back to the pre-World War I level.
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blizu perioda pre Prvog svetskog rata.
05:57
So there are really two
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Tako da, zapravo, postoje dva
05:59
different parts of the story here.
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različita dela priče.
06:01
One has to do with
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Jedan ima veze
06:02
the total quantity of wealth that we accumulate,
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sa ukupnom količinom
imovine koju akumuliramo,
imovine koju akumuliramo,
06:05
and there is nothing bad per se, of course,
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i nema ničeg izričito lošeg
06:07
in accumulating a lot of wealth,
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u tome da se imovina akumulira,
06:08
and in particular if it is more diffuse
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pogotovo ako je rasprostranjena,
06:11
and less concentrated.
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a ne nagomilavana.
06:13
So what we really want to focus on
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Ono na šta ćemo se stvarno skoncentrisati
06:15
is the long-run evolution of wealth inequality,
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je dugoročna evolucija
imovinske nejednakosti,
imovinske nejednakosti,
06:18
and what's going to happen in the future.
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i ono što će se u budućnosti dešavati.
06:20
How can we account for the fact that
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Kako možemo objasniti činjenicu
06:22
until World War I, wealth inequality was so high
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da je u periodu Prvog svetskog rata,
nejednakost bila toliko velika
nejednakost bila toliko velika
06:26
and, if anything, was rising to even higher levels,
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i, ako ništa drugo,
rasla je do veće nejednakosti,
rasla je do veće nejednakosti,
06:29
and how can we think about the future?
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i kako možemo razmišljati o budućnosti?
06:32
So let me come to some of the explanations
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Dopustite da dođem
do nekih objašnjenja
do nekih objašnjenja
06:36
and speculations about the future.
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i nagađanja, vezanih za budućnost.
06:38
Let me first say that
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Prvo, da samo kažem
06:40
probably the best model to explain
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da je verovatno najbolji primer toga
06:42
why wealth is so much
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2097
zašto je imovina toliko
06:44
more concentrated than income
158
392438
2186
nagomilavana u odnosu na prihode,
06:46
is a dynamic, dynastic model
159
394624
3112
zapravo dinamičan, dinastijski primer
06:49
where individuals have a long horizon
160
397736
2464
gde pojedinac ima širok vidokrug
06:52
and accumulate wealth for all sorts of reasons.
161
400200
2756
i gomila imovinu iz raznih razloga.
06:54
If people were accumulating wealth
162
402956
2610
Da ljudi gomilaju imovinu,
06:57
only for life cycle reasons,
163
405566
2003
samo zbog životnog veka,
06:59
you know, to be able to consume
164
407569
2013
razumete,
da mogu da uživaju imovinu
07:01
when they are old,
165
409582
1587
i kad ostare,
07:03
then the level of wealth inequality
166
411169
2373
onda bi nivo imovinske nejednakosti
07:05
should be more or less in line
167
413542
2317
trebalo da bude manje više jednak
07:07
with the level of income inequality.
168
415859
1969
nivou nejednakosti u prihodima.
07:09
But it will be very difficult to explain
169
417828
1928
Ali bi bilo jako teško objasniti
07:11
why you have so much more wealth inequality
170
419756
2194
zašto postoji
više imovinske nejednakosti
više imovinske nejednakosti
07:13
than income inequality
171
421950
1484
od nejednakosti u prihodima,
07:15
with a pure life cycle model,
172
423434
1276
primerom životnog veka.
07:16
so you need a story
173
424710
2031
Prema tome, treba vam priča
07:18
where people also care
174
426741
1688
gde je ljudima takođe stalo
07:20
about wealth accumulation for other reasons.
175
428429
2531
do akumulacije imovine,
ali iz drugih razloga.
ali iz drugih razloga.
07:22
So typically, they want to transmit
176
430960
1924
Obično žele preneti
07:24
wealth to the next generation, to their children,
177
432884
3326
imovinu sledećoj generaciji, svojoj deci,
07:28
or sometimes they want to accumulate wealth
178
436210
1768
ponekad žele akumulirati imovinu
07:29
because of the prestige, the
power that goes with wealth.
power that goes with wealth.
179
437978
2768
zbog prestiža i moći koja dolazi uz to.
Moraju postojati drugi razlozi
07:32
So there must be other reasons
180
440746
1384
07:34
for accumulating wealth than just life cycle
181
442130
1990
za akumulaciju imovine van životnog veka
07:36
to explain what we see in the data.
182
444120
2768
kako bismo objasnili
to što vidimo u podacima.
to što vidimo u podacima.
07:38
Now, in a large class of dynamic models
183
446888
3346
E sada, u velikoj klasi dinamičkih primera
07:42
of wealth accumulation
184
450234
1976
akumulacije imovine
07:44
with such dynastic motive for accumulating wealth,
185
452210
3558
sa takvim dinastijskim razlozima
za akumulaciju imovine,
za akumulaciju imovine,
07:47
you will have all sorts of random,
186
455768
2846
imaćete razne
07:50
multiplicative shocks.
187
458614
923
uvećavane šokove.
07:51
So for instance, some families
188
459537
2249
Na primer, neke porodice
07:53
have a very large number of children,
189
461786
1687
imaju velik broj dece,
07:55
so the wealth will be divided.
190
463473
1766
pa će imovina biti podeljena.
07:57
Some families have fewer children.
191
465239
1890
Neke porodice imaju manji broj dece.
07:59
You also have shocks to rates of return.
192
467129
2228
Postoji i šok na stopu povraćaja.
08:01
Some families make huge capital gains.
193
469357
2097
Neke porodice imaju
ogroman priliv kapitala.
ogroman priliv kapitala.
08:03
Some made bad investments.
194
471454
1795
Neke su imale loša ulaganja.
08:05
So you will always have some mobility
195
473249
2241
Uvek ćete imati neku vrstu mobilnosti
08:07
in the wealth process.
196
475490
1438
u tom imovinskom procesu.
08:08
Some people will move up,
some people will move down.
some people will move down.
197
476928
2375
Neki ljudi će se uzdići,
neki će se spustiti.
neki će se spustiti.
08:11
The important point is that,
198
479303
1652
Značajna poenta jeste da
08:12
in any such model,
199
480955
1010
u kom god primeru,
08:13
for a given variance of such shocks,
200
481965
2556
za datu varijaciju tih šokova,
08:16
the equilibrium level of wealth inequality
201
484521
2036
balans nivoa imovinske nejednakosti
08:18
will be a steeply rising function of r minus g.
202
486557
4837
će biti visoko rastuća funkcija
r minus g.
r minus g.
08:23
And intuitively, the reason why the difference
203
491394
2869
Intuitivno, razlog za razlike
08:26
between the rate of return to wealth
204
494263
1844
između stope povraćaja imovine
08:28
and the growth rate is important
205
496107
1755
i razvojne stope, koja je značajna,
08:29
is that initial wealth inequalities
206
497862
2312
je da će prvobitne imovinske nejednakosti
08:32
will be amplified at a faster pace
207
500174
2391
biti uvećavane bržim tempom
08:34
with a bigger r minus g.
208
502565
2069
sa većim r minus g.
08:36
So take a simple example,
209
504634
1474
Uzmite jednostavan primer,
08:38
with r equals five percent and g equals one percent,
210
506108
3766
kada je r jednako 5 procenata,
a g je jednako 1 procenat,
a g je jednako 1 procenat,
08:41
wealth holders only need to reinvest
211
509874
2108
imovinski vlasnici
samo moraju opet uložiti
samo moraju opet uložiti
08:43
one fifth of their capital income to ensure
212
511982
2639
jednu petinu svog kapitala da bi osigurali
08:46
that their wealth rises as fast
213
514621
2733
da će im imovina rasti istom brzinom
08:49
as the size of the economy.
214
517354
1913
kojom raste i ekonomija.
08:51
So this makes it easier
215
519267
1383
Ovo olakšava
08:52
to build and perpetuate large fortunes
216
520650
1766
građenje i očuvanje velikih imućstava,
08:54
because you can consume four fifths,
217
522416
1955
jer možete koristiti četiri petine,
08:56
assuming zero tax,
218
524371
1739
sa pretpostavkom - bez poreza,
08:58
and you can just reinvest one fifth.
219
526110
1661
i nanovo uložite preostalu petinu.
08:59
So of course some families
will consume more than that,
will consume more than that,
220
527771
2588
Naravno, neke porodice
će iskoristiti više od toga,
će iskoristiti više od toga,
09:02
some will consume less, so there will be
221
530359
1743
a neke manje, pa će biti
09:04
some mobility in the distribution,
222
532102
1755
neke mobilnosti u distribuciji,
09:05
but on average, they only need to reinvest one fifth,
223
533857
2846
ali, u proseku, samo moraju
uložiti jednu petinu,
uložiti jednu petinu,
09:08
so this allows high wealth inequalities to be sustained.
224
536703
3769
što omogućava održavanje
velike imovinske nejednakosti.
velike imovinske nejednakosti.
09:12
Now, you should not be surprised
225
540472
2497
Nemojte biti iznenađeni
09:14
by the statement that r can be bigger than g forever,
226
542969
3536
izjavom da r može biti veće od g zauvek,
09:18
because, in fact, this is what happened
227
546505
1616
jer se upravo to dešavalo
09:20
during most of the history of mankind.
228
548121
2071
tokom istorije čovečanstva.
09:22
And this was in a way very obvious to everybody
229
550192
3351
I ovo je, na neki način,
bilo svima očito,
bilo svima očito,
09:25
for a simple reason, which is that growth
230
553543
1778
iz prostog razloga, što je rast
09:27
was close to zero percent
231
555321
2188
bio približno nula procenata
09:29
during most of the history of mankind.
232
557509
1621
kroz veći deo istorije čovečanstva.
09:31
Growth was maybe 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 percent,
233
559130
3532
Rast je možda bio
0,1 - 0,2 - 0,3 procenata,
0,1 - 0,2 - 0,3 procenata,
09:34
but very slow growth of population
234
562662
1996
zbog sporog rasta populacije
09:36
and output per capita,
235
564658
1997
i učinka po glavi,
09:38
whereas the rate of return on capital
236
566655
1884
dok stopa povraćaja kapitala,
09:40
of course was not zero percent.
237
568539
1856
naravno, nije bila nula procenata.
09:42
It was, for land assets, which was
238
570395
2036
Za zemljišna dobra, koja su bila
09:44
the traditional form
239
572431
1809
tradicionalni oblik
09:46
of assets in preindustrial societies,
240
574240
2401
dobara u društvima
pre industrijalizacije,
pre industrijalizacije,
09:48
it was typically five percent.
241
576641
1763
obično je bilo 5 procenata.
09:50
Any reader of Jane Austen would know that.
242
578404
3786
Svaka osoba koja je čitala
Džejn Ostin će ovo znati.
Džejn Ostin će ovo znati.
09:54
If you want an annual income of 1,000 pounds,
243
582190
2908
Ako želite godišnji prihod od 1000 funti
09:57
you should have a capital value
244
585098
1642
bila bi vam potrebna vrednost kapitala
09:58
of 20,000 pounds so that
245
586740
1856
od 20 000 funti, tako bi
10:00
five percent of 20,000 is 1,000.
246
588596
2550
pet procenata od 20 000 bilo 1000.
10:03
And in a way, this was
247
591146
2017
Na neki način, ovo je bila
10:05
the very foundation of society,
248
593163
1778
sama osnova društva,
10:06
because r bigger than g
249
594941
3035
jer kad je r veće od g,
10:09
was what allowed holders of wealth and assets
250
597976
4124
onda su vlasnici imovine i dobara mogli
10:14
to live off their capital income
251
602100
2690
da žive od prihoda od kapitala
10:16
and to do something else in life
252
604790
2700
i da rade nešto drugo u životu
10:19
than just to care about their own survival.
253
607490
3195
nego da samo brinu
o sopstvenom preživljavanju.
o sopstvenom preživljavanju.
10:22
Now, one important conclusion
254
610685
2160
Bitan zaključak
10:24
of my historical research is that
255
612845
1991
mog istorijskog istraživanja je
10:26
modern industrial growth did not change
256
614836
2711
da savremeni rast industrije ne menja
10:29
this basic fact as much as one might have expected.
257
617547
2824
osnovnu činjenicu,
kako bi neki očekivali.
kako bi neki očekivali.
10:32
Of course, the growth rate
258
620371
1679
Naravno, stopa rasta
10:34
following the Industrial Revolution
259
622050
1808
je nakon industrijske revolucije
10:35
rose, typically from zero to one to two percent,
260
623858
4322
porasla, obično, od nula do dva procenta,
10:40
but at the same time, the rate of return
261
628180
1930
ali je istovremeno,
stopa povraćaja kapitala,
stopa povraćaja kapitala,
10:42
to capital also rose
262
630110
1645
je takođe rasla
10:43
so that the gap between the two
263
631755
2425
tako da se razlika između dve stope
10:46
did not really change.
264
634180
1456
nije mnogo menjala.
10:47
So during the 20th century,
265
635636
2250
Tokom 20. veka
10:49
you had a very unique combination of events.
266
637886
2644
imali smo vrlo specifičan tok dešavanja.
10:52
First, a very low rate of return
267
640530
2017
Prvo, vrlo niska stopa povraćaja
10:54
due to the 1914 and 1945 war shocks,
268
642547
3016
uzrokovana šokovima
iz ratova 1914. i 1945.
iz ratova 1914. i 1945.
10:57
destruction of wealth, inflation,
269
645563
2305
uništavanje imovine, inflacija,
10:59
bankruptcy during the Great Depression,
270
647868
1980
bankrot tokom ekonomske krize,
11:01
and all of this reduced
271
649848
1665
sve ovo je svelo
11:03
the private rate of return to wealth
272
651513
1750
privatnu stopu povraćaja imovine
11:05
to unusually low levels
273
653263
1895
na začuđujuće nizak nivo
11:07
between 1914 and 1945.
274
655158
2339
između 1914. i 1945.
11:09
And then, in the postwar period,
275
657497
1836
I onda, u posleratnom periodu,
11:11
you had unusually high growth rate,
276
659333
3237
postojala je
začuđujuće visoka stopa rasta,
začuđujuće visoka stopa rasta,
11:14
partly due to the reconstruction.
277
662570
2374
uzrokovana, delom,
zbog rekonstrukcije.
zbog rekonstrukcije.
11:16
You know, in Germany, in France, in Japan,
278
664944
1925
Znate, u Nemačkoj, Francuskoj, Japanu,
11:18
you had five percent growth rate
279
666869
1551
stopa rasta je bila 5 procenata
11:20
between 1950 and 1980
280
668420
3150
između 1950. i 1980,
11:23
largely due to reconstruction,
281
671570
1643
većim delom zbog rekonstrukcije,
11:25
and also due to very large demographic growth,
282
673213
2351
takođe, zbog vrlo visokog
rasta populacije,
rasta populacije,
11:27
the Baby Boom Cohort effect.
283
675564
2141
efekta Bebi-bum generacija.
11:29
Now, apparently that's not going to last for very long,
284
677705
2438
Danas, to neće moći dugo da potraje
11:32
or at least the population growth
285
680143
1675
ili bi rast populacije
11:33
is supposed to decline in the future,
286
681818
2768
trebalo da opadne u budućnosti,
11:36
and the best projections we have is that
287
684586
3656
i najbolja predviđanja koja možemo imati,
11:40
the long-run growth is going to be closer
288
688242
1828
na duže staze,
jeste da rast bude bliže
jeste da rast bude bliže
11:42
to one to two percent
289
690070
1423
jednom ili dva procenta
11:43
rather than four to five percent.
290
691493
1946
pre nego četiri ili pet procenata.
11:45
So if you look at this,
291
693439
2677
Ako pogledate ovo,
11:48
these are the best estimates we have
292
696116
2141
ovo su najbolje procene koje imamo
11:50
of world GDP growth
293
698257
1656
rasta svetskog BDP
11:51
and rate of return on capital,
294
699913
2359
i stope povraćaja imovine,
11:54
average rates of return on capital,
295
702272
2088
prosečnu stopu povraćaja imovine,
11:56
so you can see that during most
296
704360
1068
možete videti da je dugo
11:57
of the history of mankind,
297
705428
1517
u istoriji čovečanstva
11:58
the growth rate was very small,
298
706945
1613
stopa rasta bila veoma niska,
12:00
much lower than the rate of return,
299
708558
1834
mnogo niža od stope povraćaja,
12:02
and then during the 20th century,
300
710392
2362
i onda, tokom 20. veka,
12:04
it is really the population growth,
301
712754
2171
rast populacije je bio taj,
12:06
very high in the postwar period,
302
714925
2272
izuzetno velik u posleratnom dobu,
12:09
and the reconstruction process
303
717197
1600
pored procesa rekonstrukcije,
12:10
that brought growth
304
718797
1573
koji je doneo porast
12:12
to a smaller gap with the rate of return.
305
720370
3071
smanjivši razliku
u odnosu na stopu povraćaja.
u odnosu na stopu povraćaja.
12:15
Here I use the United Nations population projections,
306
723441
3523
Tu je predstava Ujedinjenih nacija
o populaciji,
o populaciji,
12:18
so of course they are uncertain.
307
726964
2476
stoga znamo da je nesigurna.
12:21
It could be that we all start
308
729440
1391
Može se desiti da svi počnemo
12:22
having a lot of children in the future,
309
730831
2106
da imamo puno dece u budućnosti
12:24
and the growth rates are going to be higher,
310
732937
2765
te će stope rasta biti mnogo veće,
12:27
but from now on,
311
735702
1249
ali od sada pa nadalje,
12:28
these are the best projections we have,
312
736951
2802
to su najbliže predstave koje imamo,
12:31
and this will make global growth
313
739753
1934
koje će uzrokovati da svetski porast
12:33
decline and the gap between
314
741687
2756
opadne i razlika u odnosu
12:36
the rate of return go up.
315
744443
2003
na stopu povraćaja poraste.
12:38
Now, the other unusual event
316
746446
2862
Sada, drugi neobični događaj
12:41
during the 20th century
317
749308
1671
u 20. veku,
12:42
was, as I said,
318
750979
1329
je bio, kao što sam pomenuo
12:44
destruction, taxation of capital,
319
752308
2316
destrukcija, oporezivanje kapitala,
12:46
so this is the pre-tax rate of return.
320
754624
2735
ovo je stopa povraćaja pre poreza.
12:49
This is the after-tax rate of return,
321
757359
2979
Ovo je stopa povraćaja posle poreza,
12:52
and after destruction,
322
760338
1566
i posle destrukcije,
12:53
and this is what brought
323
761904
1777
i to je ono što dovodi
12:55
the average rate of return
324
763681
1688
prosečnu stopu povraćaja
12:57
after tax, after destruction,
325
765369
1789
posle poreza, posle destrukcije
12:59
below the growth rate during a long time period.
326
767158
2420
na nivo ispod stope rasta na duži period.
13:01
But without the destruction,
327
769578
1674
Ali bez destrukcije,
13:03
without the taxation, this
would not have happened.
would not have happened.
328
771252
2475
bez oporezivanja,
ovo se ne bi ni desilo.
ovo se ne bi ni desilo.
13:05
So let me say that the balance between
329
773727
3243
Želim da kažem da, ravnoteža između
13:08
returns on capital and growth
330
776970
2356
povraćaja kapitala i rasta
13:11
depends on many different factors
331
779326
1862
zavisi od različitih faktora
13:13
that are very difficult to predict:
332
781188
2085
koje je teško predvideti:
13:15
technology and the development
333
783273
2115
tehnologija i razvoj
13:17
of capital-intensive techniques.
334
785388
2584
tehnika povećanja intenziteta kapitala.
13:19
So right now, the most capital-intensive sectors
335
787972
3019
Trenutno, sektori sa najvećim
kapitalnim intenzitetom
kapitalnim intenzitetom
13:22
in the economy are the real estate sector, housing,
336
790991
3376
u ekonomiji su:
nekretnine, stambena izgradnja,
nekretnine, stambena izgradnja,
13:26
the energy sector, but it could be in the future
337
794367
2862
električna energija,
ali može biti da u budućnosti
ali može biti da u budućnosti
13:29
that we have a lot more robots in a number of sectors
338
797229
3712
imamo znatno više robota
u većini sektora
u većini sektora
13:32
and that this would be a bigger share
339
800941
1889
i da bi to predstavljalo velik udeo
13:34
of the total capital stock that it is today.
340
802830
1910
u ukupnim zalihama kapitala, danas.
13:36
Well, we are very far from this,
341
804740
1994
Vrlo smo daleko od ovoga,
i trenutno, ono što se dešava
13:38
and from now, what's going on
342
806734
1766
sektoru za nekretnine,
13:40
in the real estate sector, the energy sector,
343
808500
1789
električnu energiju
13:42
is much more important for the total capital stock
344
810289
2126
je mnogo važnije za ukupne zalihe kapitala
13:44
and capital share.
345
812415
1134
i za udeo kapitala.
13:45
The other important issue
346
813549
2033
Još jedna važna činjenica
13:47
is that there are scale effects
in portfolio management,
in portfolio management,
347
815582
2150
je reciprocitet zarade
u odnosu na poslovanje,
u odnosu na poslovanje,
13:49
together with financial complexity,
348
817732
2419
zajedno sa finansijskom kompleksnošću,
13:52
financial deregulation,
349
820151
1450
finansijskom nesređenošću
13:53
that make it easier to get higher rates of return
350
821601
2709
koja je olakšala rast stope povraćaja
13:56
for a large portfolio,
351
824310
1627
za širok spektar ulaganja,
13:57
and this seems to be particularly strong
352
825937
2663
i ovo deluje naročito tačno
14:00
for billionaires, large capital endowments.
353
828600
1982
za milijardere sa izuzetnim kapitalom.
14:02
Just to give you one example,
354
830582
2290
Da vam dam jedan primer
14:04
this comes from the Forbes billionaire rankings
355
832872
3333
koji dolazi iz Forbsovog
poretka milijardera
poretka milijardera
14:08
over the 1987-2013 period,
356
836205
3330
u periodu od 1987. do 2013.
14:11
and you can see the very top wealth holders
357
839535
2788
pa možete videti u vrhu
imovinske vlasnike
imovinske vlasnike
14:14
have been going up at six, seven percent per year
358
842323
3117
koji idu godišnje
ka šest, sedam procenata
ka šest, sedam procenata
14:17
in real terms above inflation,
359
845440
2391
realnih procenata, van inflacije,
14:19
whereas average income in the world,
360
847831
2372
dok je prosek prihoda u svetu,
14:22
average wealth in the world,
361
850203
1363
prosek imovine u svetu,
14:23
have increased at only two percent per year.
362
851566
3383
porastao na samo dva procenta godišnje.
14:26
And you find the same
363
854949
1729
Pronašli biste isto
14:28
for large university endowments —
364
856678
1276
za imućne univerzitete -
14:29
the bigger the initial endowments,
365
857954
2268
što je veći početni kapital,
14:32
the bigger the rate of return.
366
860222
2068
veća će biti stopa povraćaja.
14:34
Now, what could be done?
367
862290
1678
Šta se može učiniti povodom toga?
14:35
The first thing is that I think we need
368
863968
2396
Prva stvar koja nam je,
po mom mišljenju, potrebna
po mom mišljenju, potrebna
14:38
more financial transparency.
369
866364
2115
je jasna slika finansija.
14:40
We know too little about global wealth dynamics,
370
868479
3841
Znamo vrlo malo o dinamici imovine u svetu
14:44
so we need international transmission
371
872320
1900
pa nam je potreban međunarodni prenos
14:46
of bank information.
372
874220
1262
podataka iz banaka.
14:47
We need a global registry of financial assets,
373
875482
2686
Potreban nam je svetski registar
finansijskih dobara
finansijskih dobara
14:50
more coordination on wealth taxation,
374
878168
2491
više koordinacije prilikom
oporezivanja imovine,
oporezivanja imovine,
14:52
and even wealth tax with a small tax rate
375
880659
3112
pa čak i porez na imovinu sa niskom stopom
14:55
will be a way to produce information
376
883771
2216
će biti vid prikupljanja podataka
14:57
so that then we can adapt our policies
377
885987
2682
pa da možemo uskladiti svoje postupke
15:00
to whatever we observe.
378
888669
1836
shodno tome što primetimo.
15:02
And to some extent, the fight
379
890505
1838
Donekle, naša borba
15:04
against tax havens
380
892343
1481
protiv utočišta od poreza
15:05
and automatic transmission of information
381
893824
1815
i automatsko širenje informarcija
15:07
is pushing us in this direction.
382
895639
1851
nas guraju u ovom pravcu.
15:09
Now, there are other ways to redistribute wealth,
383
897490
2324
Postoje i drugi načini
za raspodelu imovine,
za raspodelu imovine,
15:11
which it can be tempting to use.
384
899814
2957
koji mogu biti primamljivi za primenu.
15:14
Inflation:
385
902771
1356
Inflacija:
15:16
it's much easier to print money
386
904127
1699
mnogo je lakše ištampati novac
15:17
than to write a tax code, so that's very tempting,
387
905826
2155
i izbeći poreski postupak -
vrlo primamljivo,
vrlo primamljivo,
15:19
but sometimes you don't know
what you do with the money.
what you do with the money.
388
907981
2120
iako nekad ni ne znate
šta ste radili s novcem.
šta ste radili s novcem.
15:22
This is a problem.
389
910101
1647
Ovo je problem.
15:23
Expropriation is very tempting.
390
911748
1863
Eksproprijacija je vrlo primamljiva.
Taman kada osetite
da su se neki ljudi obogatili,
da su se neki ljudi obogatili,
15:25
Just when you feel some people get too wealthy,
391
913611
2261
15:27
you just expropriate them.
392
915872
1294
samo izvršite eksproprijaciju.
15:29
But this is not a very efficient way
393
917166
1712
Mada ovo nije najefikasniji način
15:30
to organize a regulation of wealth dynamics.
394
918878
2833
da se uspe u regulisanju dinamike imovine.
15:33
So war is an even less efficient way,
395
921711
2479
Rat je još manje efikasan način,
15:36
so I tend to prefer progressive taxation,
396
924190
2336
pa tako ja preferiram
povećanje poreza,
povećanje poreza,
15:38
but of course, history — (Laughter) —
397
926526
2574
ali naravno, istorija - (Smeh) -
15:41
history will invent its own best ways,
398
929100
1735
će naći bolje načine
koji će uključivati,
15:42
and it will probably involve
399
930835
1698
verovatno kombinaciju
15:44
a combination of all of these.
400
932533
1734
svega ovoga.
15:46
Thank you.
401
934267
1866
Hvala.
15:48
(Applause)
402
936133
2137
(Aplauz)
15:50
Bruno Giussani: Thomas Piketty. Thank you.
403
938270
5559
Bruno Đuzani: Tomas Piketi. Hvala.
15:55
Thomas, I want to ask you two or three questions,
404
943829
1879
Tomase, želim da Vam postavim
nekoliko pitanja,
nekoliko pitanja,
15:57
because it's impressive how you're
in command of your data, of course,
in command of your data, of course,
405
945708
3859
jer je impresivno kako baratate
informacijama koje imate,
informacijama koje imate,
16:01
but basically what you suggest is
406
949567
3794
ali Vi zapravo hoćete da kažete
16:05
growing wealth concentration is kind of
407
953361
1573
da je rast gomilanja imovine
16:06
a natural tendency of capitalism,
408
954934
1924
samo jedna tendencija kapitalizma,
16:08
and if we leave it to its own devices,
409
956858
3538
i ako je ostavimo samoj sebi,
16:12
it may threaten the system itself,
410
960396
2240
može nauditi našem sistemu,
16:14
so you're suggesting that we need to act
411
962636
1726
a vi predlažete da se pokrenemo
16:16
to implement policies that redistribute wealth,
412
964362
3038
i uvedemo novu politiku
preraspodele dobara,
preraspodele dobara,
16:19
including the ones we just saw:
413
967400
1721
uključujući i one koje smo sad videli:
16:21
progressive taxation, etc.
414
969121
1471
povećanje poreza?
16:22
In the current political context,
415
970592
2139
U današnjem kontekstu politike
16:24
how realistic are those?
416
972731
1991
koliko su one realne?
16:26
How likely do you think that it is
417
974722
1811
Koliko mislite da mogu
16:28
that they will be implemented?
418
976533
1744
biti sprovedene?
16:30
Thomas Piketty: Well, you know, I think
419
978277
1211
Tomas Piketi: Smatram da
16:31
if you look back through time,
420
979488
1781
ako pogledate nazad u vreme,
16:33
the history of income, wealth and taxation
421
981269
2651
istorijat prihoda, imovine i oporezivanja
16:35
is full of surprise.
422
983920
1602
je pun iznenađenja.
16:37
So I am not terribly impressed
423
985522
2605
Nisam preterano impresioniran
16:40
by those who know in advance
424
988127
1568
onima koji unapred znaju
16:41
what will or will not happen.
425
989695
1631
šta će biti, a i šta neće biti.
16:43
I think one century ago,
426
991326
1704
Mislim da bi pre jednog veka
16:45
many people would have said
427
993030
1569
mnogi ljudi rekli
16:46
that progressive income taxation would never happen
428
994599
2138
da povećanje poreza na prihode neće doći,
16:48
and then it happened.
429
996737
1520
a onda se dogodilo.
16:50
And even five years ago,
430
998257
1989
Čak i pre pet godina,
16:52
many people would have said that bank secrecy
431
1000246
2352
mnogi ljudi bi rekli da će tajne banaka
16:54
will be with us forever in Switzerland,
432
1002598
2025
biti zauvek s nama u Švajcarskoj,
16:56
that Switzerland was too powerful
433
1004623
1788
da je Švajcarska premoćna
16:58
for the rest of the world,
434
1006411
1489
u odnosu na ostatak sveta,
16:59
and then suddenly it took a few U.S. sanctions
435
1007900
2961
i odjednom, sve što je trebalo
je nekoliko sankcija SAD-a
je nekoliko sankcija SAD-a
17:02
against Swiss banks for a big change to happen,
436
1010861
2622
protiv švajcarskih banaka,
da bi dobili znatnu promenu,
da bi dobili znatnu promenu,
17:05
and now we are moving toward
437
1013483
1703
a sada se krećemo
17:07
more financial transparency.
438
1015186
1676
ka jasnom viđenju finansija.
17:08
So I think it's not that difficult
439
1016862
4281
Mislim da nije naročito teško
17:13
to better coordinate politically.
440
1021143
2469
doći do bolje političke koordinacije.
17:15
We are going to have a treaty
441
1023612
2058
Da imamo sporazum
17:17
with half of the world GDP around the table
442
1025670
3049
sa BDP-om polovine sveta na stolu,
17:20
with the U.S. and the European Union,
443
1028719
2002
sa SAD-om i Evropskom unijom,
17:22
so if half of the world GDP is not enough
444
1030721
2126
a ako BDP polovine sveta nije dovoljan
17:24
to make progress on financial transparency
445
1032847
2666
da se rastumači slika finansija u svetu
17:27
and minimal tax for multinational corporate profits,
446
1035513
4084
i da se se postave minimalni porezi
za profit multinacionalnih korporacija,
za profit multinacionalnih korporacija,
17:31
what does it take?
447
1039597
1664
šta nam je onda potrebno?
17:33
So I think these are not technical difficulties.
448
1041261
3623
Smatram da ovo nisu tehničke poteškoće.
17:36
I think we can make progress
449
1044884
1924
Mislim da možemo napredovati
17:38
if we have a more pragmatic
approach to these questions
approach to these questions
450
1046808
2587
ako bismo imali pragmatičniji pristup
ovim pitanjima
ovim pitanjima
17:41
and we have the proper sanctions
451
1049395
1901
i ako bismo imali redovne sankcije
17:43
on those who benefit from financial opacity.
452
1051296
2991
za one kojima godi zataškivanje finansija.
17:46
BG: One of the arguments
453
1054287
1653
BĐ: Jedan od argumenata
17:47
against your point of view
454
1055940
1433
protiv Vašeg gledišta
17:49
is that economic inequality
455
1057373
1442
je da ekonomska nejednakost
17:50
is not only a feature of capitalism
but is actually one of its engines.
but is actually one of its engines.
456
1058815
3637
nije samo karakteristika kapitalizma,
već jedna od njenih mašina.
već jedna od njenih mašina.
17:54
So we take measures to lower inequality,
457
1062452
2801
Preduzimamo mere
za smanjenje nejednakosti
za smanjenje nejednakosti
17:57
and at the same time we lower growth, potentially.
458
1065253
2407
ali time i rizikujemo
potencijalno smanjenje rasta.
potencijalno smanjenje rasta.
17:59
What do you answer to that?
459
1067660
1560
Kakav odgovor imate na to?
18:01
TP: Yeah, I think inequality
460
1069220
1729
TP: Da, mislim da nejednakost
18:02
is not a problem per se.
461
1070949
1889
nije problem po sebi.
18:04
I think inequality up to a point
462
1072838
2040
Mislim da nejednakost donekle
18:06
can actually be useful for innovation and growth.
463
1074878
2652
može zapravo biti korisna
za inovacije i razvoj.
za inovacije i razvoj.
18:09
The problem is, it's a question of degree.
464
1077530
2193
Problem je što je to pitanje stepena.
18:11
When inequality gets too extreme,
465
1079723
2544
Kad nejednakost poprimi velike razmere,
18:14
then it becomes useless for growth
466
1082267
2889
postaje neupotrebljiva za rast
18:17
and it can even become bad
467
1085156
1462
i čak može da postane loša
18:18
because it tends to lead to high perpetuation
468
1086618
3057
jer uzrokuje
ukorenjenu nejednakost
18:21
of inequality over time
469
1089675
1636
18:23
and low mobility.
470
1091311
1866
i slabu mobilnost.
18:25
And for instance, the kind of wealth concentrations
471
1093177
3286
Recimo, koncentracija imovine
18:28
that we had in the 19th century
472
1096463
2877
koju smo imali u 19. veku
18:31
and pretty much until World War I
473
1099340
1925
i sve do Prvog svetskog rata
18:33
in every European country
474
1101265
1765
u svakoj evropskoj državi
18:35
was, I think, not useful for growth.
475
1103030
2094
nije bila korisna za porast.
18:37
This was destroyed by a combination
476
1105124
2102
Ovo je uništeno kombinacijom
18:39
of tragic events and policy changes,
477
1107226
2341
tragičnih događaja i promena poslovanja,
18:41
and this did not prevent growth from happening.
478
1109567
2272
i nije sprečilo pojavu porasta.
18:43
And also, extreme inequality can be bad
479
1111839
3443
Takođe, ekstremna nejednakost
može biti loša
može biti loša
18:47
for our democratic institutions
480
1115282
2198
za naše demokratske institucije,
18:49
if it creates very unequal access to political voice,
481
1117480
2383
ako stvori nejednake načine
političkog oglašavanja
političkog oglašavanja
18:51
and the influence of private money
482
1119863
1865
i uticaj ličnog bogatstva,
18:53
in U.S. politics, I think,
483
1121728
2002
u politici SAD-a, mislim,
18:55
is a matter of concern right now.
484
1123730
2540
je sada već zabrinjavajuća stvar.
18:58
So we don't want to return to that kind of extreme,
485
1126270
3076
Ne želimo da se vraćamo na takav ekstrem,
19:01
pre-World War I inequality.
486
1129346
2090
nejednakost poput one
u predratnom periodu.
u predratnom periodu.
19:03
Having a decent share of the national wealth
487
1131436
3674
Imati pristojan udeo u nacionalnom blagu
19:07
for the middle class is not bad for growth.
488
1135110
3390
za srednju klasu,
nije tako loše za porast.
nije tako loše za porast.
19:10
It is actually useful
489
1138500
1281
Zapravo je korisno
19:11
both for equity and efficiency reasons.
490
1139781
3084
kako za opštu pravičnost,
tako i za efikasnost.
tako i za efikasnost.
19:14
BG: I said at the beginning
491
1142865
1665
BĐ: Rekao sam na početku
19:16
that your book has been criticized.
492
1144530
2109
da je Vaša knjiga bila kritikovana.
19:18
Some of your data has been criticized.
493
1146639
1241
Vaši podaci su kritikovani.
19:19
Some of your choice of data sets has been criticized.
494
1147880
2466
Neki od Vaših izbora podataka
su bili kritikovani.
su bili kritikovani.
19:22
You have been accused of cherry-picking data
495
1150346
1876
Optuženi ste
za pristrasno skupljanje podataka
19:24
to make your case. What do you answer to that?
496
1152222
2737
kako bi Vam išli u korist.
Šta je Vaš odgovor?
Šta je Vaš odgovor?
19:26
TP: Well, I answer that I am very happy
497
1154959
1927
TP: Pa, odgovorio sam da sam jako srećan
19:28
that this book is stimulating debate.
498
1156886
2467
što ova knjiga podstiče diskusiju.
19:31
This is part of what it is intended for.
499
1159353
2481
To joj je delom i svrha.
19:33
Look, the reason why I put all the data online
500
1161834
3294
Vidite, razlog što sam stavio
sve podatke na internet
sve podatke na internet
19:37
with all of the detailed computation
501
1165128
1846
sa svom detaljnom računicom je
19:38
is so that we can have
an open and transparent
an open and transparent
502
1166974
2334
da bismo imali otvorenu i jasnu
19:41
debate about this.
503
1169308
1669
diskusiju o ovome.
19:42
So I have responded point by point
504
1170977
1766
Stoga sam reagovao pojedinačno
19:44
to every concern.
505
1172743
1792
na svaku brigu.
19:46
Let me say that if I was to rewrite the book today,
506
1174535
3113
Dozvolite, da imam priliku
da opet napišem knjigu,
da opet napišem knjigu,
19:49
I would actually conclude
507
1177648
1541
zaključio bih
19:51
that the rise in wealth inequality,
508
1179189
2194
da je rast imovinske nejednakosti
19:53
particularly in the United States,
509
1181383
1927
naročito u Sjedinjenim državama,
19:55
has been actually higher
than what I report in my book.
than what I report in my book.
510
1183310
2373
bio veći od onoga
što navodim u svojoj knjizi.
što navodim u svojoj knjizi.
19:57
There is a recent study by Saez and Zucman
511
1185683
3245
Postoji skorije istraživanje
Saeza i Zukmana
Saeza i Zukmana
20:00
showing, with new data
512
1188928
1592
koje pokazuje, novim podacima
20:02
which I didn't have at the time of the book,
513
1190520
1777
koje nisam imao tokom pisanja knjige,
20:04
that wealth concentration in the U.S. has risen
514
1192297
2527
da je gomilanje imovine u SAD-u poraslo
20:06
even more than what I report.
515
1194824
1936
i više nego što ja navodim.
20:08
And there will be other data in the future.
516
1196760
2031
I biće boljih podataka u budućnosti.
20:10
Some of it will go in different directions.
517
1198791
2151
Neki od njih će ići u različitim pravcima.
20:12
Look, we put online almost every week
518
1200942
4099
Vidite, mi na internet
stavljamo skoro svake nedelje
stavljamo skoro svake nedelje
20:17
new, updated series on the
World Top Income Database
World Top Income Database
519
1205041
2934
nove, unapređene serije na
svetskoj bazi podataka o prihodima,
svetskoj bazi podataka o prihodima,
20:19
and we will keep doing so in the future,
520
1207975
1900
a nastavićemo da radimo to
i u budućnosti,
i u budućnosti,
20:21
in particular in emerging countries,
521
1209875
2306
posebno kod država u razvoju,
20:24
and I welcome all of those who want to contribute
522
1212181
2929
stoga pozivam sve koji žele doprineti
20:27
to this data collection process.
523
1215110
2346
ovom procesu prikupljanja podataka.
20:29
In fact, I certainly agree
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Svakako bih se složio
20:32
that there is not enough
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da nije dovoljno
20:33
transparency about wealth dynamics,
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jasna dinamika imovine.
20:35
and a good way to have better data
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i dobar način da se prikupe bolji podaci
20:37
would be to have a wealth tax
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bi bilo imati porez na imovinu
20:39
with a small tax rate to begin with
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sa niskom stopom, za početak
20:41
so that we can all agree
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tako da se možemo složiti
20:43
about this important evolution
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u vezi sa ovom važnom evolucijom
20:45
and adapt our policies to whatever we observe.
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i da postupke uskladimo
sa onim što opažamo.
sa onim što opažamo.
20:48
So taxation is a source of knowledge,
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Oporezivanje je izvor znanja,
20:50
and that's what we need the most right now.
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i to je ono
što bi nam najviše trebalo danas.
što bi nam najviše trebalo danas.
20:53
BG: Thomas Piketty, merci beaucoup.
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BĐ: Tomas Piketi, hvala mnogo.
20:55
Thank you.
TP: Thank you. (Applause)
TP: Thank you. (Applause)
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TP: Hvala.
Hvala. (Aplauz)
Hvala. (Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Thomas Piketty - EconomistThomas Piketty is an economist and professor at the Paris School of Economics. His 2014 book, "Capital in the Twenty-first Century," caused a sensation upon publication.
Why you should listen
Is the global economy accelerating toward a future that’s incompatible with democracy? In this provocative talk about inequality and wealth, economist Thomas Piketty provides new context for his groundbreaking book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century.
More profile about the speakerThomas Piketty | Speaker | TED.com