TED2017
Danny Hillis: Should we create a solar shade to cool the earth?
丹尼·希利斯: 我们应该制造一个太阳遮光板给地球降温吗？
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Readability: 3.4
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在这场标新立异的演讲中，丹尼·希利斯提示我们用创造性的科学方法解决一些全球性的问题，比如气候变化。他以太阳能地球工程的视角，用开放的眼光来看待其中的一些争议。
Danny Hillis - Computer theorist
Inventor, scientist, author, engineer -- over his broad career, Danny Hillis has turned his ever-searching brain on an array of subjects, with surprising results. Full bio
Inventor, scientist, author, engineer -- over his broad career, Danny Hillis has turned his ever-searching brain on an array of subjects, with surprising results. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
[A provocation from Danny Hillis:]
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【来自丹尼希利斯的挑衅：
00:13
[It's time to start talking
about engineering our climate]
about engineering our climate]
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是时候谈谈如何治理气候问题了】
是否可以创造一个恒温器，
00:16
What if there was a way
to build a thermostat
to build a thermostat
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00:20
that allowed you to turn down
the temperature of the earth
the temperature of the earth
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能在任何时候
00:23
anytime you wanted?
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给地球降温？
00:25
Now, you would think if somebody
had a plausible idea about how to do that,
had a plausible idea about how to do that,
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你也许会认为，如果有人已经
找到了可行的方法，
找到了可行的方法，
00:30
everybody would be very excited about it,
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每个人都会非常激动，
而且关于这方面的研究也会有很多。
00:32
and there would be lots
of research on how to do it.
of research on how to do it.
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00:35
But in fact, a lot of people
do understand how to do that.
do understand how to do that.
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事实是，许多人明白如何做，
00:40
But there's not much support
for research in this area.
for research in this area.
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但是，这些方法并没有
得到相关研究的支持。
得到相关研究的支持。
00:45
And I think part of it
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我认为，其中部分原因是
人们对这项研究存在着误解。
00:47
is because there are some real
misunderstandings about it.
misunderstandings about it.
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00:51
So I'm not going to try to convince you
today that this is a good idea.
today that this is a good idea.
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今天，我不会说服大家承认
我要说的是一个好办法，
我要说的是一个好办法，
00:55
But I am going to try to get
your curiosity going about it
your curiosity going about it
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但我会尝试让你们
对治理气候变化感兴趣，
对治理气候变化感兴趣，
并消除其中一些误解。
01:00
and clear up some
of the misunderstandings.
of the misunderstandings.
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01:04
So, the basic idea of solar geoengineering
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太阳能地球工程的基本思想就是
我们通过把一部分阳光
01:08
is that we can cool things down
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反射回太空的方式，
01:11
just by reflecting
a little bit more sunlight
a little bit more sunlight
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01:13
back into space.
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给地表的物体降温。
01:15
And ideas about how to do this
have been around literally for decades.
have been around literally for decades.
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数十年来人们都在讨论
如何实现这种想法，
如何实现这种想法，
01:22
Clouds are a great way to do that,
these low-lying clouds.
these low-lying clouds.
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低空的云，就是一种很棒的方式，
人们都知道，云底下凉快。
01:26
Everybody knows it's cooler under a cloud.
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01:29
I like this cloud because it has exactly
the same water content
the same water content
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我喜欢这种云是因为，它的含水量
和周围的空气一致。
01:33
as the transparent air around it.
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01:36
And it just shows that even a little bit
of a change in the flow of the air
of a change in the flow of the air
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这就意味着，只要空气的
流动发生一点改变，
流动发生一点改变，
就能形成云。
01:40
can cause a cloud to form.
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01:42
We make artificial clouds all the time.
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我们经常在空中制造人造云，
01:45
These are contrails,
which are artificial water clouds
which are artificial water clouds
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这些云是飞机飞行痕迹，
是人造水云，
是人造水云，
是由喷气式发动机产生的。
01:49
that are made by the passing
of a jet engine.
of a jet engine.
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01:52
And so, we're already changing
the clouds on earth.
the clouds on earth.
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我们已经在不经意间改变
地球上的云了。
01:57
By accident.
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或者，你可能更愿意认为
这是政府的绝密阴谋。
这是政府的绝密阴谋。
01:58
Or, if you like to believe it,
by supersecret government conspiracy.
by supersecret government conspiracy.
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（笑声）
02:03
(Laughter)
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02:05
But we are already doing this quite a lot.
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我们在这方面已经做了很多工作。
这是一张由NASA
拍摄的船舶航线图。
拍摄的船舶航线图。
02:08
This is a NASA picture of shipping lanes.
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船舶的航行会导致云的形成，
02:12
Passing ships actually cause
clouds to form,
clouds to form,
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而且这种影响效应非常大，
02:15
and this is a big enough effect
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大到能让大气温度降低一度，
从而减缓了全球变暖效应。
从而减缓了全球变暖效应。
02:17
that it actually helps reduce
global warming already by about a degree.
global warming already by about a degree.
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02:23
So we already are doing solar engineering.
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也就是说，我们已经
开始研究太阳能工程了。
开始研究太阳能工程了。
02:27
There's lots of ideas
about how to do this.
about how to do this.
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有很多关于实现这一工程的想法，
人们着眼于方方面面，
02:29
People have looked at everything,
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从在太空建造巨大的遮阳伞，
02:31
from building giant parasols
out into space
out into space
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到在海洋里产生气泡。
02:34
to fizzing bubble waters in the ocean.
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02:38
And some of these are actually
very plausible ideas.
very plausible ideas.
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其中有一部分想法是十分可行的。
02:42
One that was published recently
by David Keith at Harvard
by David Keith at Harvard
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最近，哈佛的大卫 · 凯斯
提出了一个想法，
提出了一个想法，
将白垩粉（如粉笔灰）洒到平流层中，
02:47
is to take chalk and put dust
up into the stratosphere,
up into the stratosphere,
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用来反射太阳光。
02:50
where it reflects off sunlight.
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这确实是一个不错的注意，
02:53
And that's a really neat idea,
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因为白垩是地球上
最常见的矿物之一，
最常见的矿物之一，
02:54
because chalk is one of the most
common minerals on earth,
common minerals on earth,
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而且非常安全——
安全到可以添加到婴儿的食物中。
安全到可以添加到婴儿的食物中。
02:57
and it's very safe -- it's so safe,
we put it into baby food.
we put it into baby food.
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03:02
And basically, if you throw chalk
up into the stratosphere,
up into the stratosphere,
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如果你把白垩投入到平流层中，
它会花几年的时间才落到地面，
并溶解在雨水中。
并溶解在雨水中。
03:06
it comes down in a couple of years
all by itself, dissolved in rainwater.
all by itself, dissolved in rainwater.
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03:12
Now, before you start worrying
about all this chalk in your rainwater,
about all this chalk in your rainwater,
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在你担心雨水中的白垩之前，
我先向你们解释一下，
我们使用的白垩是有多么的少。
我们使用的白垩是有多么的少。
03:16
let me explain to you
how little of it it actually takes.
how little of it it actually takes.
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03:21
And that turns out to be
very easy to calculate.
very easy to calculate.
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可以证明它的用量非常容易计算。
03:25
This is a back-of-the-envelope
calculation I made.
calculation I made.
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这是我粗略的计算。
（笑声）
03:27
(Laughter)
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（掌声）
03:29
(Applause)
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我可以向各位保证，
已经有人进行过更详细的计算，
已经有人进行过更详细的计算，
03:31
I assure you, people have done
much more careful calculations,
much more careful calculations,
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得出的结果是一致的——
03:35
and it comes out with the same answer,
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03:37
which is that you have to put chalk up
at the rate of about 10 teragrams a year
at the rate of about 10 teragrams a year
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你需要每年以10太克（1Tg=10^9公斤）的
速率向平流层投放白垩，
速率向平流层投放白垩，
来消除二氧化碳的影响，
这是我们已经在做的——
这是我们已经在做的——
03:43
to undo the effects of the CO2
that we've already done --
that we've already done --
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仅仅是温度方面的影响，
不包含其他的影响。
不包含其他的影响。
03:47
just in terms of temperature,
not all the effects, but the temperature.
not all the effects, but the temperature.
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03:51
So what does that look like?
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那么这个数字是什么概念？
我想象不出每年
10太克是什么样子的。
10太克是什么样子的。
03:53
I can't visualize 10 teragrams per year.
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03:57
So I asked the Cambridge
Fire Department and Taylor Milsal
Fire Department and Taylor Milsal
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所以，我请了剑桥消防部门，
以及泰勒 · 米尔索
以及泰勒 · 米尔索
帮我一个忙。
04:03
to lend me a hand.
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04:06
This is a hose pumping water
at 10 teragrams a year.
at 10 teragrams a year.
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这根水管的出水量
就是一年10太克。
就是一年10太克。
04:12
And that is how much
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这个规模
就是让地球降温到
工业时代前的水平，
工业时代前的水平，
04:15
you would have to pump
into the stratosphere
into the stratosphere
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需要将白垩注入到平流层的量。
04:18
to cool the earth back down
to pre-industrial levels.
to pre-industrial levels.
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04:23
And it's amazingly little;
it's like one hose for the entire earth.
it's like one hose for the entire earth.
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这个量小得惊人，整个地球
只需要这一根水管就够了。
只需要这一根水管就够了。
04:29
Now of course, you wouldn't
really use a hose,
really use a hose,
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当然，你不必使用一根水管，
可以通过飞机，或其他
类似的方法将白垩带上去。
类似的方法将白垩带上去。
04:31
you'd fly it up in airplanes
or something like that.
or something like that.
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04:34
But it's so little, it would be like
putting a handful of chalk
putting a handful of chalk
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这个量非常的小，
就好像用手抓一把白垩
就好像用手抓一把白垩
放入与奥运会标准泳池
等量的雨水中。
等量的雨水中。
04:39
into every Olympic
swimming pool full of rain.
swimming pool full of rain.
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04:42
It's almost nothing.
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很难察觉出变化。
04:45
So why don't people like this idea?
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那么为什么
人们不喜欢这种方法？
人们不喜欢这种方法？
为什么不重视这种方法？
04:49
Why isn't it taken more seriously?
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有一些很好的理由。
04:51
And there are some
very good reasons for that.
very good reasons for that.
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04:55
A lot of people really don't think
we should be talking about this at all.
we should be talking about this at all.
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有很多人不认为
我们应当去研究这种方法。
我们应当去研究这种方法。
事实上，在座的观众中
有一些是我非常要好的朋友，
有一些是我非常要好的朋友，
05:00
And, in fact, I have some
very good friends in the audience
very good friends in the audience
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我非常尊敬他们，
05:04
who I respect a lot,
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05:07
who really don't think
I should be talking about this.
I should be talking about this.
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他们认为我不应该研究这个。
05:11
And the reason is that they're concerned
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因为他们关心的是，
人们是否还能想出更简单的办法，
05:13
that if people imagine
there's some easy way out,
there's some easy way out,
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来摆脱对化石燃料的依赖。
05:17
that we won't give up
our addiction to fossil fuels.
our addiction to fossil fuels.
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05:21
And I do worry about that.
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我也关心这一点，
05:23
I think it's actually a serious problem.
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因为我认为这是
一个很严重的问题，
一个很严重的问题，
05:26
But there's also, I think,
a deeper problem,
a deeper problem,
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也是一个很深奥的问题。
05:32
which is: nobody likes the idea
of messing with the entire earth --
of messing with the entire earth --
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没有人喜欢让整个地球
陷入混乱的想法，
陷入混乱的想法，
我当然也不喜欢。
05:38
I certainly don't.
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05:39
I love this planet, I really do.
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我喜欢这个星球，说真的，
我不想给地球制造任何麻烦。
05:42
And I don't want to mess with it.
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05:44
But we're already changing our atmosphere,
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但是我们已经在改变
我们的大气层了，
我们的大气层了，
我们已经把它搞得乌烟瘴气了。
05:48
we're already messing with it.
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05:51
And so I think it makes sense
for us to look for ways
for us to look for ways
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所以我们应该寻找一些方法，
减缓大气变化造成的影响。
05:57
to mitigate that impact.
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这就意味着我们需要去研究它，
05:59
And we need to do research to do that.
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我们需要弄清楚
这背后的科学道理。
这背后的科学道理。
06:01
We need to understand
the science behind that.
the science behind that.
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06:04
I've noticed that there's a theme
that's kind of developed at TED,
that's kind of developed at TED,
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我注意到，在TED中
有关于发展的主题，
有关于发展的主题，
类似于“恐惧与希望”，
06:10
which is kind of, "fear versus hope,"
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或者是“创造与谨慎”。
06:14
or "creativity versus caution."
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06:19
And of course, we need both of those.
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当然，我们也需要这些思想。
06:21
So there aren't any silver bullets.
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但这不是完美的解决办法，
这确实不是完美的解决办法。
06:24
This is certainly not a silver bullet.
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06:28
But we need science to tell us
what our options are;
what our options are;
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但我们需要通过科学知道，
我们有哪些选择；
我们有哪些选择；
这会为我们的创造力和
谨慎态度带来指导。
谨慎态度带来指导。
06:32
that informs both
our creativity and our caution.
our creativity and our caution.
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06:37
So I am an optimist
about our future selves,
about our future selves,
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对人类的未来，
我是一个乐观主义者，
我是一个乐观主义者，
06:42
but I'm not an optimist
because I think our problems are small.
because I think our problems are small.
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我乐观的原因
并不是因为这些问题很小，
并不是因为这些问题很小，
06:47
I'm an optimist because I think
our capacity to deal with our problems
our capacity to deal with our problems
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而是因为我认为
我们有能力解决这些问题，
我们有能力解决这些问题，
而且方法比我们想象的要好。
06:53
is much greater than we imagine.
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06:55
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
（掌声）
06:57
(Applause)
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这场演讲在 TED2017
引起了许多议论，
引起了许多议论，
06:58
This talk sparked
a lot of controversy at TED2017,
a lot of controversy at TED2017,
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我们鼓励观众们
上网了解这些讨论，
上网了解这些讨论，
07:00
and we encourage you
to look at discussions online
to look at discussions online
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了解其他的观点。
07:02
to see other points of view.
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Translated by Zihao Wang
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Danny Hillis - Computer theoristInventor, scientist, author, engineer -- over his broad career, Danny Hillis has turned his ever-searching brain on an array of subjects, with surprising results.
Why you should listen
Danny Hillis is an inventor, scientist, author and engineer. While completing his doctorate at MIT, he pioneered the concept of parallel computers that is now the basis for graphics processors and cloud computing. He holds more than 300 US patents, covering parallel computers, disk arrays, forgery prevention methods, various electronic and mechanical devices, and the pinch-to-zoom display interface. He has recently been working on problems in medicine as well. He is also the designer of a 10,000-year mechanical clock, and he gave a TED Talk in 1994 that is practically prophetic. Throughout his career, Hillis has worked at places like Disney, and now MIT and Applied Invention, always looking for the next fascinating problem.
Danny Hillis | Speaker | TED.com