ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert J. Gordon - Economist
Robert J. Gordon is among the most influential macroeconomists in the world. And the big picture he sees is not altogether rosy.

Why you should listen

Robert J. Gordon has written prolifically about the problems facing contemporary economic growth, casting a sobering doubt on the ability of our current innovations (what he calls the "third industrial revolution," including all our fancy gadgets) to power the economy the way previous waves of invention. In a recent paper, he suggests that the repeated doubling of economic growth that characterized the 20th century and was arguably the bedrock for modern society may be decelerating at an alarming rate -- especially for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution. While innovation is continuing apace, he sees the economy buffeted by six headwinds, and a different mix of obstacles for the US economy than for Canada and Europe.

Over the past four decades, he's also done fascinating work on the economics of the airline industry. He's authored hundreds of scholarly articles and five books, including his most recent, Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment: The Collected Essays of Robert J. Gordon, as well as the textbook Macroeconomics, now in its 12th edition. Two key papers to start: "Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds," NBER Working Paper 18315; and “Why Innovation Won’t Save Us,” from the Wall Street Journal.

More profile about the speaker
Robert J. Gordon | Speaker | TED.com
TED2013

Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of growth

罗伯特·戈登: 创新的死亡,增长的结束。

Filmed:
1,198,030 views

过去两个世纪,美国经济迅速增长。我们目前是否到了经济增长的尽头?经济学家罗伯特·戈登 举出了四个美国经济增长速度下滑的原因,并详细讲述了原因例如大量贷款和不断增长的不平等现象。这些使得经济出现停滞,人类无法创造出更伟大的发明。建议同时观看来自埃里克·布吕诺尔夫松的对立观点。
- Economist
Robert J. Gordon is among the most influential macroeconomists in the world. And the big picture he sees is not altogether rosy. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
That's how we traveled旅行 in the year 1900.
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1900年,人们是这样出行的。
00:15
That's an open打开 buggy越野车. It doesn't have heating加热.
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这是一个敞篷车,它没有供暖设备,
00:17
It doesn't have air空气 conditioning空调.
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没有空调,
00:19
That horse is pulling it along沿
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只有马拉着。
00:21
at one percent百分 of the speed速度 of sound声音,
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以百分之一的光速向前行驶。
00:23
and the rutted车辙 dirt污垢 road
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一旦下雨,这布满车辙与尘土路
00:25
turns into a quagmire沼泽 of mud anytime任何时候 it rains降雨.
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将变成充满烂泥的沼泽地。
00:29
That's a Boeing波音 707.
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这是一架波音707,
00:32
Only 60 years年份 later后来, it travels旅行
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仅仅60年之后,
00:34
at 80 percent百分 of the speed速度 of sound声音,
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它以80%的光速飞行。
00:37
and we don't travel旅行 any faster更快 today今天
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这是迄今为止人类能达到的最快速度。
00:39
because commercial广告 supersonic超音 air空气 travel旅行
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著名的超音速商业旅游公司
00:42
turned转身 out to be a bust胸围.
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如今也已破产,
00:44
So I started开始 wondering想知道 and pondering琢磨,
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这不禁让我思考:
00:47
could it be that the best最好 years年份 of American美国 economic经济 growth发展
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美国经济的繁荣年代
00:50
are behind背后 us?
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是否已成为历史了呢?
00:52
And that leads引线 to the suggestion建议, maybe economic经济 growth发展
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这个疑问引出了一个细微的迹象:
00:56
is almost几乎 over.
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或许经济增长已经停止了。
00:58
Some of the reasons原因 for this are not really very controversial争论的.
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得出此结论的一部分原因无可置否。
01:02
There are four headwinds逆风 that are just hitting
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美国经济正遭遇着四个方面的打压。
01:04
the American美国 economy经济 in the face面对.
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它们分别是:
01:07
They're demographics人口统计学, education教育, debt债务 and inequality不等式.
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人口,教育,债务以及不平等。
01:12
They're powerful强大 enough足够 to cut growth发展 in half.
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这些问题严峻到能使经济增长速度减半。
01:15
So we need a lot of innovation革新 to offset抵消 this decline下降.
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我们需要大量创新来抵抗经济衰落,
01:20
And here's这里的 my theme主题: Because of the headwinds逆风,
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这也就引出了我今天演讲的主题:面临当前的不利形势,
01:23
if innovation革新 continues继续 to be as powerful强大 as it has been
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如果创新的力量仍和过去150年一样强大,
01:25
in the last 150 years年份, growth发展 is cut in half.
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经济增长速度也只能是减半,
01:29
If innovation革新 is less powerful强大,
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如果创新程度弱于以往,
01:32
invents发明了 less great, wonderful精彩 things,
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无法创造出更伟大更美好的事物,
01:34
then growth发展 is going to be even lower降低 than half of history历史.
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那么经济增长速度连过去的一半都达不到。
01:38
Now here's这里的 eight centuries百年 of economic经济 growth发展.
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这是八世纪的经济增长图,
01:41
The vertical垂直 axis is just percent百分 per year of growth发展,
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纵坐标显示每年经济增长的百分点,
01:45
zero percent百分 a year, one percent百分 a year, two percent百分 a year.
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第一年零增长,1%增长率,2%增长率
01:48
The white白色 line线 is for the U.K., and then the U.S.
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白色的线代表英国,然后美国
01:51
takes over as the leading领导 nation国家 in the year 1900,
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超过英国成为20世纪的领先强国。
01:54
when the line线 switches开关 to red.
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当线条转为红色时,
01:55
You'll你会 notice注意 that, for the first four centuries百年,
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你会发现前四个世纪
01:57
there's hardly几乎不 any growth发展 at all, just 0.2 percent百分.
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经济几乎没有增长,只有可怜的0.2%增长率,
02:01
Then growth发展 gets得到 better and better.
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在这之后经济越来越好。
02:03
It maxes马克塞斯 out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,
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在20世纪30.40.和50年代出现经济增长高峰,
02:06
and then it starts启动 slowing减缓 down, and here's这里的 a cautionary警示 note注意.
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在这之后,增长速度减慢。值得注意的是,
02:09
That last downward向下 notch缺口 in the red line线
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红色线条中最后的下降曲线
02:12
is not actual实际 data数据.
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并非真实的数据,
02:14
That is a forecast预测 that I made制作 six years年份 ago
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那只是我在六年前对经济的预测,
02:17
that growth发展 would slow down to 1.3 percent百分.
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我那时估计经济增长速度会减缓到1.3%
02:20
But you know what the actual实际 facts事实 are?
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但真实数据是如何呢?
02:22
You know what the growth发展 in per-person每人 income收入 has been
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在场有谁知道在过去的六年内美国人均收入
02:24
in the United联合的 States状态 in the last six years年份?
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增长了多少呢?
02:27
Negative.
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答案是负增长。
02:29
This led to a fantasy幻想.
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这便导致了一场幻觉。
02:31
What if I try to fit适合 a curved弯曲 line线 to this historical历史的 record记录?
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如果我要在这个历史记录中安置一条曲线结果会怎么样呢?
02:36
I can make the curved弯曲 line线 end结束 anywhere随地 I wanted,
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我能将曲线终止在任何地方,
02:40
but I decided决定 I would end结束 it at 0.2,
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但我估计会降到0.2%
02:43
just like the U.K. growth发展 for the first four centuries百年.
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就像英国在前四世纪的增长速度一样。
02:48
Now the history历史 that we've我们已经 achieved实现 is that we've我们已经 grown长大的
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从1891年到2007年,美国经济
02:51
at 2.0 percent百分 per year over the whole整个 period,
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的年增长率
02:55
1891 to 2007,
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是2.0%
02:59
and remember记得 it's been a little bit negative since以来 2007.
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请记住,2007年以后,经济就出现了负增长,
03:02
But if growth发展 slows减缓 down,
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但如果经济增长速度减慢,
03:05
instead代替 of doubling加倍 our standard标准 of living活的 every一切 generation,
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结果将不是生活水平比以前翻一番。
03:09
Americans美国人 in the future未来 can't expect期望 to be twice两次 as well off as their parents父母,
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未来的美国人民不能期待生活水平比上一代好一倍,
03:13
or even a quarter25美分硬币 [more well off than] their parents父母.
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或者只是好上四分之一。
03:16
Now we're going to change更改 and look at the level水平 of per capita人头 income收入.
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现在我们转来看看人均收入水平。
03:21
The vertical垂直 axis now is thousands数千 of dollars美元 in today's今天的 prices价格.
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纵轴代表以千为单位的美元,
03:24
You'll你会 notice注意 that in 1891, over on the left,
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你会发现,在1891年,此图的左半边,
03:27
we were at about 5,000 dollars美元.
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美国人均年收入为5000美元。
03:28
Today今天 we're at about 44,000 dollars美元 of total output产量
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如今美国人均年收入为
03:31
per member会员 of the population人口.
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44000美元。
03:34
Now what if we could achieve实现 that historic历史性
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如果在1891年后的70年内,
03:36
two-percent双百分号 growth发展 for the next下一个 70 years年份?
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经济年增长率为2%,
03:39
Well, it's a matter of arithmetic算术.
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这是一个算法问题。
03:41
Two-percent双百分 growth发展 quadruples四倍 your standard标准 of living活的 in 70 years年份.
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2%的经济增长率会让你的生活水平在70年后翻两番。
03:45
That means手段 we'd星期三 go from 44,000 to 180,000.
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这就意味着到2031年,美国人均年收入将从44000美元增长到180000美元。
03:49
Well, we're not going to do that,
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然而,我们并不能达到这个目标,
03:51
and the reason原因 is the headwinds逆风.
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原因就在于经济逆风。
03:53
The first headwind逆风 is demographics人口统计学.
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第一阵经济逆风就是人口。
03:54
It's a truism老生常谈 that your standard标准 of living活的
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众所周知,你的生活水平增长速度要快于生产率,
03:57
rises上升 faster更快 than productivity生产率, rises上升 faster更快 than output产量 per hour小时,
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也会快于每小时产量
04:00
if hours小时 per person increased增加.
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如果人均工时增加,
04:03
And we got that gift礼品 back in the '70s and '80s
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在二十世纪七十年代和八十年代,当女性加入劳动市场,
04:05
when women妇女 entered进入 the labor劳动 force.
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我们的确尝到了甜头。
04:08
But now it's turned转身 around.
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但是如今形势却出现逆转,
04:10
Now hours小时 per person are shrinking萎缩,
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人均工时不断缩水,
04:12
first because of the retirement退休 of the baby宝宝 boomers,
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原因之一是五六十年代婴儿潮出生的人目前已面临退休,
04:15
and second第二 because there's been a very significant重大
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原因之二是青壮年男性劳动力的比例
04:19
dropping落下 out of the labor劳动 force of prime主要 age年龄 adult成人 males男性
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大幅度下降,
04:23
who are in the bottom底部 half of the educational教育性 distribution分配.
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他们是教育分布的下半部。
04:27
The next下一个 headwind逆风 is education教育.
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第二场经济逆风是教育。
04:30
We've我们已经 got problems问题 all over our educational教育性 system系统
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我们的教育体系存在大量问题,
04:32
despite尽管 Race种族 to the Top最佳.
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这是除了种族问题之外最严峻的问题
04:34
In college学院, we've我们已经 got cost成本 inflation通货膨胀 in higher更高 education教育
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大学里,高等教育的成本增长不断增长,
04:38
that dwarfs小矮人 cost成本 inflation通货膨胀 in medical care关心.
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这种增长使医疗保健中的成本增长显得相形见绌。
04:41
We have in higher更高 education教育 a trillion dollars美元 of student学生 debt债务,
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高等教育里,学生欠债高达一万亿美元。
04:45
and our college学院 completion完成 rate
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而大学完成率却
04:48
is 15 points, 15 percentage百分比 points below下面 Canada加拿大.
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低于加拿大15%
04:55
We have a lot of debt债务.
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我们欠了大量的债务。
04:57
Our economy经济 grew成长 from 2000 to 2007
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2000到2007年间的经济增长
05:02
on the back of consumers消费者 massively大规模 overborrowing过度借贷.
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是源于消费者的大量过度借贷。
05:05
Consumers消费者 paying付款 off that debt债务 is one of the main主要 reasons原因
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消费者将钱用于还债,
05:08
why our economic经济 recovery复苏 is so sluggish迟缓 today今天.
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就是如今我们经济萧条的主要原因之一。
05:11
And everybody每个人 of course课程 knows知道
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众所周知,
05:12
that the federal联邦 government政府 debt债务 is growing生长
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作为GDP的一部分,
05:15
as a share分享 of GDPGDP at a very rapid快速 rate,
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联邦政府的贷款正在迅速增加,
05:18
and the only way that's going to stop is some combination组合
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而阻止其增长的唯一方式就是
05:21
of faster更快 growth发展 in taxes or slower比较慢 growth发展 in entitlements权益,
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加快税收增长以及减缓津贴增长,
05:26
also called transfer转让 payments支付.
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这也被称作转移支付。
05:28
And that gets得到 us down from the 1.5,
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若将此种方法付诸实际,
05:30
where we've我们已经 reached到达 for education教育, down to 1.3.
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就能将我们的教育 百分比从1.5%降到1.3%。
05:34
And then we have inequality不等式.
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除此之外,我们还面临不平等这一问题。
05:36
Over the 15 years年份 before the financial金融 crisis危机,
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在经济危机发生之前的15年内,
05:39
the growth发展 rate of the bottom底部 99 percent百分
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收入分布底层的99%的增长速度
05:42
of the income收入 distribution分配 was half a point slower比较慢
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比之前我们所讲的平均值
05:45
than the averages均线 we've我们已经 been talking about before.
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降低了0.5%。
05:48
All the rest休息 went to the top最佳 one percent百分.
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剩下的就是顶层的1%。
05:50
So that brings带来 us down to 0.8.
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平均一下,就是0.8%。
05:53
And that 0.8 is the big challenge挑战.
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0.8%这个数字对我们来说是个巨大的挑战。
05:56
Are we going to grow增长 at 0.8?
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我们的经济会以0.8%的速度增长么?
05:58
If so, that's going to require要求 that our inventions发明
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要做到这点,我们必须保证今后的发明
06:01
are as important重要 as the ones那些 that happened发生
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会与150年前的发明
06:03
over the last 150 years年份.
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具有同等的重要意义。
06:06
So let's see what some of those inventions发明 were.
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让我们先来看看过去有哪些发明:
06:10
If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,
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在1875年,人们想在晚上读书的话,
06:14
you needed需要 to have an oil or a gas加油站 lamp.
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需要煤油灯或者煤气灯。
06:17
They created创建 pollution污染, they created创建 odors气味,
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这些灯会污染环境,也会散发臭味,
06:19
they were hard to control控制, the light was dim暗淡,
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这种灯很难控制,光线也比较昏暗,
06:22
and they were a fire hazard冒险.
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同时也是火灾隐患。
06:24
By 1929, electric电动 light was everywhere到处.
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1929年,电灯在美国已经随处可见了。
06:29
We had the vertical垂直 city, the invention发明 of the elevator电梯.
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城市高楼耸立,这个时代又出现了电梯。
06:33
Central中央 Manhattan曼哈顿 became成为 possible可能.
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曼哈顿中央区成为可能。
06:36
And then, in addition加成 to that, at the same相同 time,
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与此同时,
06:39
hand tools工具 were replaced更换 by massive大规模的 electric电动 tools工具
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手工操作被大量机械操作取代,
06:43
and hand-powered手供电 electric电动 tools工具,
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手动的电动工具
06:45
all achieved实现 by electricity电力.
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通过电力实现。
06:48
Electricity电力 was also very helpful有帮助 in liberating解放 women妇女.
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电力同时也解放了妇女。
06:52
Women妇女, back in the late晚了 19th century世纪,
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在十九世纪,
06:55
spent花费 two days a week doing the laundry洗衣店.
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妇女每个星期要花两天的时间洗衣服。
06:58
They did it on a scrub擦洗 board.
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她们首先要在搓衣板上刷衣服,
06:59
Then they had to hang the clothes衣服 out to dry.
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然后将衣服挂起来晾干,
07:02
Then they had to bring带来 them in.
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然后再把晒干的衣服带回家。
07:03
The whole整个 thing took two days out of the seven-day七天 week.
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整个过程要花费2天的时间。
07:06
And then we had the electric电动 washing洗涤 machine.
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然后,人类发明了电动洗衣机。
07:10
And by 1950, they were everywhere到处.
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1950年,洗衣机在美国随处可见
07:13
But the women妇女 still had to shop every一切 day,
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但是妇女每天要买菜,
07:16
but no they didn't, because electricity电力
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现在,她们不需要为此操劳了,
07:18
brought us the electric电动 refrigerator冰箱.
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因为现在有了电冰箱。
07:21
Back in the late晚了 19th century世纪, the only source资源 of heat in most homes家园
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在19世纪,大多数家庭里唯一的热源是
07:24
was a big fireplace壁炉 in the kitchen厨房 that was used for cooking烹饪 and heating加热.
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厨房里用来烧饭和加热的火堆。
07:29
The bedrooms卧室 were cold. They were unheated不加热.
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房间冰冷,没有热源。
07:31
But by 1929, certainly当然 by 1950,
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但到了1929年,尤其到了1950年,
07:34
we had central中央 heating加热 everywhere到处.
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中央供暖在美国随处可见。
07:38
What about the internal内部 combustion燃烧 engine发动机,
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1879年,
07:40
which哪一个 was invented发明 in 1879?
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人类发明了内燃机。
07:42
In America美国, before the motor发动机 vehicle车辆,
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在出现汽车之前
07:46
transportation运输 depended依赖 entirely完全 on the urban城市的 horse,
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美国的交通完全依赖马匹。
07:50
which哪一个 dropped下降, without restraint克制,
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由于没有限制,
07:53
25 to 50 pounds英镑 of manure肥料 on the streets街道 every一切 day
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这些马匹每天在街上要排放25磅至50磅(约11.36公斤至22.73公斤)的粪便,
07:57
together一起 with a gallon加仑 of urine尿.
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还有1加仑(约3.8升)的尿液。
07:59
That comes out at five to 10 tons daily日常
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这就意味着每天,城市每平方英尺(约9.29平方米)内
08:02
per square广场 mile英里 in cities城市.
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就有5到10吨的马排泄物。
08:04
Those horses马匹 also ate up fully充分 one quarter25美分硬币 of American美国 agricultural农业的 land土地.
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这些马吃的草占了美国农业土地四分之一。
08:10
That's the percentage百分比 of American美国 agricultural农业的 land土地
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整整25%的美国农业土地
08:13
it took to feed饲料 the horses马匹.
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居然都用来喂马了。
08:15
Of course课程, when the motor发动机 vehicle车辆 was invented发明,
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当然,当汽车出现后
08:19
and it became成为 almost几乎 ubiquitous普及 by 1929,
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尤其是在1929年汽车遍布全国各地的时候,
08:22
that agricultural农业的 land土地 could be used for human人的 consumption消费
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农业土地被用来供人类消费
08:25
or for export出口.
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或者出口。
08:27
And here's这里的 an interesting有趣 ratio: Starting开始 from zero in 1900,
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这是个有趣的比例:1900年,没有一个家庭拥有汽车;
08:30
only 30 years年份 later后来, the ratio of motor发动机 vehicles汽车 to the number of households
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仅仅三十年之后,
08:35
in the United联合的 States状态 reached到达 90 percent百分 in just 30 years年份.
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90%的美国家庭都拥有了汽车。
08:42
Back before the turn of the century世纪,
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19世纪末期,
08:45
women妇女 had another另一个 problem问题.
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妇女还有一个亟待解决的问题:
08:46
All the water for cooking烹饪, cleaning清洁的 and bathing洗澡
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生活用水(例如烧饭,清洁,洗澡),
08:51
had to be carried携带的 in buckets水桶 and pails提桶 in from the outside.
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必须从外面一桶一桶地提回来。
08:55
It's a historical历史的 fact事实 that in 1885,
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在1885年,
08:58
the average平均 North Carolina卡罗来纳州 housewife家庭主妇
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北卡罗来纳州的家庭妇女
09:00
walked 148 miles英里 a year carrying携带 35 tons of water.
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平均每年要走148英里的路,挑35吨的水。
09:06
But by 1929, cities城市 around the country国家
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但到了1929年,每个城市
09:10
had put in underground地下 water pipes管道.
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都安装了地下水管。
09:13
They had put in underground地下 sewer下水道 pipes管道,
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也安装了污水管。
09:16
and as a result结果, one of the great scourges祸害 of the late晚了 19th century世纪,
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因为这一发明,19世纪末的一大灾难---
09:22
waterborne水性 diseases疾病 like cholera霍乱, began开始 to disappear消失.
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水传疾病例如霍乱,开始逐渐消失。
09:26
And an amazing惊人 fact事实 for techno-optimistsTECHNO-乐观
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还有一个让技术乐观主义者高兴的事实:
09:29
is that in the first half of the 20th century世纪,
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在20世纪前半期,
09:32
the rate of improvement起色 of life expectancy期待
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人类寿命的增长速度
09:35
was three times faster更快 than it was
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是19世纪后半期
09:38
in the second第二 half of the 19th century世纪.
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寿命增长速度的三倍。
09:40
So it's a truism老生常谈 that things can't be more than 100 percent百分 of themselves他们自己.
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众所周知,任何事物的增长速度不能超过100%。
09:46
And I'll just give you a few少数 examples例子.
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在这里我给大家举几个例子:
09:48
We went from one percent百分 to 90 percent百分 of the speed速度 of sound声音.
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光速从1%提高到90%,
09:51
Electrification起电, central中央 heat, ownership所有权 of motor发动机 cars汽车,
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电力,中央供暖,汽车拥有量,
09:55
they all went from zero to 100 percent百分.
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它们都从0增长到100%。
09:57
Urban城市的 environments环境 make people more productive生产的 than on the farm农场.
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相比农场环境,城市环境提高了人类的生产力。
10:01
We went from 25 percent百分 urban城市的 to 75 percent百分
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二战后期,
10:03
by the early postwar战后 years年份.
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城市化从25%增长到75%。
10:08
What about the electronic电子 revolution革命?
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那么电子革命又是如何呢?
10:10
Here's这里的 an early computer电脑.
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这是一台早期的电脑。
10:12
It's amazing惊人. The mainframe大型机 computer电脑 was invented发明 in 1942.
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电脑的主架产于1942年,
10:15
By 1960 we had telephone电话 bills票据, bank银行 statements声明
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到了1960年,人类有了电话账单,银行对账单,
10:20
were being存在 produced生成 by computers电脑.
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这些都是由电脑打印出来的。
10:22
The earliest最早 cell细胞 phones手机, the earliest最早 personal个人 computers电脑
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最早的手机,个人电脑
10:24
were invented发明 in the 1970s.
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都出现于1970年代。
10:27
The 1980s brought us Bill法案 Gates盖茨, DOSDOS,
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1980年代出现了比尔盖茨,磁盘操作系统(DOS),
10:31
ATM自动取款机 machines to replace更换 bank银行 tellers出纳员,
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自动取款机取代了银行出纳员,
10:33
bar酒吧 code scanning扫描 to cut down on labor劳动 in the retail零售 sector扇形.
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条纹扫描削减了销售行业的劳动力。
10:37
Fast快速 forward前锋 through通过 the '90s,
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到了90年代,
10:39
we had the dotcom网络公司 revolution革命
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我们有了网络革命。
10:41
and a temporary临时 rise上升 in productivity生产率 growth发展.
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在生产率有了短暂的提高。
10:44
But I'm now going to give you an experiment实验.
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但现在我要给大家展现一个实验,
10:46
You have to choose选择 either option选项 A or option选项 B.
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你只能选择A或者B
10:49
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:52
Option选项 A is you get to keep everything invented发明 up till直到 10 years年份 ago.
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A选项是:你拥有十年前的所有发明,
10:55
So you get Google谷歌, you get Amazon亚马逊,
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其中包括谷歌,亚马逊网站,
10:58
you get Wikipedia维基百科, and you get running赛跑 water and indoor室内 toilets洗手间.
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维基百科,自来水,室内洗手间。
11:01
Or you get everything invented发明 to yesterday昨天,
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B选项是:你拥有直到昨天之前历史上的所有发明,
11:03
including包含 FacebookFacebook的 and your iPhone苹果手机,
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这其中包括:脸谱网,苹果手机,
11:05
but you have to give up, go out to the outhouse外屋,
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但是你必须舍弃一些,你只能到屋外上厕所,
11:07
and carry携带 in the water.
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必须要自己挑水。
11:10
Hurricane飓风 Sandy caused造成 a lot of people to lose失去 the 20th century世纪,
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台风桑迪使许多人好几天都
11:14
maybe for a couple一对 of days,
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无法使用20世纪的新发明,
11:15
in some cases for more than a week,
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在受灾更为严重的地区估计要忍受一个多礼拜,
11:17
electricity电力, running赛跑 water, heating加热, gasoline汽油 for their cars汽车,
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电力,自来水,暖气,汽车所需的汽油
11:21
and a charge收费 for their iPhonesiPhone手机.
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苹果手机的充电器。
11:24
The problem问题 we face面对 is that all these great inventions发明,
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我们所面临的的问题是:所有这些伟大的发明
11:27
we have to match比赛 them in the future未来,
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都给未来的创新带来挑战。
11:30
and my prediction预测 that we're not going to match比赛 them
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我的预测就是:我们不能研制出比这些还要伟大的发明,
11:33
brings带来 us down from the original原版的 two-percent双百分号 growth发展
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这就使得我们从2%的增长速度
11:36
down to 0.2, the fanciful撒娇的 curve曲线 that I drew德鲁 you at the beginning开始.
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拉回到0.2%的增长速度,也就是我最开始的时候所画的那条曲线。
11:41
So here we are back to the horse and buggy越野车.
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所以,我们又回到了最开始的马和敞篷车。
11:44
I'd like to award an Oscar奥斯卡
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我想给20世纪的所有发明家
11:47
to the inventors发明家 of the 20th century世纪,
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颁发奥斯卡奖,
11:50
the people from Alexander亚历山大 Graham格雷厄姆 Bell
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这些伟人包括亚历山大·格雷厄姆·贝尔(电话发明者)
11:53
to Thomas托马斯 Edison爱迪生 to the Wright赖特 Brothers兄弟,
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一直到托马斯·爱迪生,一直到怀特兄弟。
11:55
I'd like to call them all up here,
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我想把他们都邀请到台上来,
11:56
and they're going to call back to you.
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然后他们将向你们发问:
11:58
Your challenge挑战 is, can you match比赛 what we achieved实现?
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你们的发明能比得过我们的发明么?
12:02
Thank you.
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谢谢。
12:03
(Applause掌声)
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掌声。
Translated by Ying Wang (王莹)
Reviewed by Xizhi Deng

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert J. Gordon - Economist
Robert J. Gordon is among the most influential macroeconomists in the world. And the big picture he sees is not altogether rosy.

Why you should listen

Robert J. Gordon has written prolifically about the problems facing contemporary economic growth, casting a sobering doubt on the ability of our current innovations (what he calls the "third industrial revolution," including all our fancy gadgets) to power the economy the way previous waves of invention. In a recent paper, he suggests that the repeated doubling of economic growth that characterized the 20th century and was arguably the bedrock for modern society may be decelerating at an alarming rate -- especially for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution. While innovation is continuing apace, he sees the economy buffeted by six headwinds, and a different mix of obstacles for the US economy than for Canada and Europe.

Over the past four decades, he's also done fascinating work on the economics of the airline industry. He's authored hundreds of scholarly articles and five books, including his most recent, Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment: The Collected Essays of Robert J. Gordon, as well as the textbook Macroeconomics, now in its 12th edition. Two key papers to start: "Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds," NBER Working Paper 18315; and “Why Innovation Won’t Save Us,” from the Wall Street Journal.

More profile about the speaker
Robert J. Gordon | Speaker | TED.com