ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert J. Gordon - Economist
Robert J. Gordon is among the most influential macroeconomists in the world. And the big picture he sees is not altogether rosy.

Why you should listen

Robert J. Gordon has written prolifically about the problems facing contemporary economic growth, casting a sobering doubt on the ability of our current innovations (what he calls the "third industrial revolution," including all our fancy gadgets) to power the economy the way previous waves of invention. In a recent paper, he suggests that the repeated doubling of economic growth that characterized the 20th century and was arguably the bedrock for modern society may be decelerating at an alarming rate -- especially for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution. While innovation is continuing apace, he sees the economy buffeted by six headwinds, and a different mix of obstacles for the US economy than for Canada and Europe.

Over the past four decades, he's also done fascinating work on the economics of the airline industry. He's authored hundreds of scholarly articles and five books, including his most recent, Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment: The Collected Essays of Robert J. Gordon, as well as the textbook Macroeconomics, now in its 12th edition. Two key papers to start: "Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds," NBER Working Paper 18315; and “Why Innovation Won’t Save Us,” from the Wall Street Journal.

More profile about the speaker
Robert J. Gordon | Speaker | TED.com
TED2013

Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of growth

羅伯‧戈登 (Robert Gordon): 創新已死,成長的盡頭

Filmed:
1,198,030 views

美國經濟已蓬勃發展了兩個世紀,我們是否已經走到了成長的盡頭?經濟學家羅伯‧戈登提出了四個美國經濟趨緩的原因,像是大量的負債及成長不平等的問題。這些問題會使美國經濟停止成長,未來的創新也無法突破。別忘了可以一起看看,艾瑞克‧布倫喬爾森 (Erik Brynjolfsson) 對經濟成長的不同看法。
- Economist
Robert J. Gordon is among the most influential macroeconomists in the world. And the big picture he sees is not altogether rosy. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
That's how we traveled旅行 in the year 1900.
0
713
2709
這是我們 1900 年用的交通工具
00:15
That's an open打開 buggy越野車. It doesn't have heating加熱.
1
3422
2369
輕便敞篷馬車,沒有裝暖氣
00:17
It doesn't have air空氣 conditioning空調.
2
5791
1629
也沒有裝冷氣
00:19
That horse is pulling it along沿
3
7420
2057
那隻馬
00:21
at one percent百分 of the speed速度 of sound聲音,
4
9477
2298
以 1% 的聲速前進
00:23
and the rutted車轍 dirt污垢 road
5
11775
1752
而布滿車輪痕跡的泥濘小路
00:25
turns into a quagmire沼澤 of mud anytime任何時候 it rains降雨.
6
13527
4382
一下雨就成了沼澤地
00:29
That's a Boeing波音 707.
7
17909
2745
這是波音 707 客機
00:32
Only 60 years年份 later後來, it travels旅行
8
20654
2301
只過了 60 年
00:34
at 80 percent百分 of the speed速度 of sound聲音,
9
22955
2217
就能以 80% 的聲速移動
00:37
and we don't travel旅行 any faster更快 today今天
10
25172
2633
而現在我們沒有更快的交通工具
00:39
because commercial廣告 supersonic超音 air空氣 travel旅行
11
27805
3139
因為超音速商務飛機
00:42
turned轉身 out to be a bust胸圍.
12
30944
1969
最後失敗了
00:44
So I started開始 wondering想知道 and pondering琢磨,
13
32913
2552
所以我開始思索
00:47
could it be that the best最好 years年份 of American美國 economic經濟 growth發展
14
35465
3022
會不會美國經濟最蓬勃發展的年代
00:50
are behind背後 us?
15
38487
1659
已經過去了?
00:52
And that leads引線 to the suggestion建議, maybe economic經濟 growth發展
16
40146
4479
這也意味著,或許經濟成長
00:56
is almost幾乎 over.
17
44625
2227
幾乎已經結束了
00:58
Some of the reasons原因 for this are not really very controversial爭論的.
18
46852
3762
有些結束的原因沒有太大的爭議
01:02
There are four headwinds逆風 that are just hitting
19
50614
2374
現在有四大困境正迎面襲擊
01:04
the American美國 economy經濟 in the face面對.
20
52988
2385
美國現在的經濟實力
01:07
They're demographics人口統計學, education教育, debt債務 and inequality不等式.
21
55373
4658
包括人口統計、教育、債務及不平等的問題
01:12
They're powerful強大 enough足夠 to cut growth發展 in half.
22
60031
3633
這些問題足以減少一半的成長
01:15
So we need a lot of innovation革新 to offset抵消 this decline下降.
23
63664
4658
所以我們需要大量創新
來抵銷經濟下滑的趨勢
01:20
And here's這裡的 my theme主題: Because of the headwinds逆風,
24
68322
2768
這就是我的主題:因為這些困境
01:23
if innovation革新 continues繼續 to be as powerful強大 as it has been
25
71090
2681
假如創新的表現能和過去 150 年一樣亮眼
01:25
in the last 150 years年份, growth發展 is cut in half.
26
73771
3867
經濟成長會減半
01:29
If innovation革新 is less powerful強大,
27
77638
2711
假如創新力沒有進步
01:32
invents發明了 less great, wonderful精彩 things,
28
80349
2454
無法再發明更多有用的東西
01:34
then growth發展 is going to be even lower降低 than half of history歷史.
29
82803
4010
那麼經濟成長將比不上過去的一半
01:38
Now here's這裡的 eight centuries百年 of economic經濟 growth發展.
30
86813
3155
這是過去八個世紀經濟成長的表現
01:41
The vertical垂直 axis is just percent百分 per year of growth發展,
31
89968
3664
縱軸代表每年成長的百分比
01:45
zero percent百分 a year, one percent百分 a year, two percent百分 a year.
32
93632
3123
一年 0%、1% 或 2%
01:48
The white白色 line is for the U.K., and then the U.S.
33
96755
2900
白線代表英國,後段是美國
01:51
takes over as the leading領導 nation國家 in the year 1900,
34
99655
2531
在 1900 年成為世界強權
01:54
when the line switches開關 to red.
35
102186
1491
也就是紅色線段的部分
01:55
You'll你會 notice注意 that, for the first four centuries百年,
36
103677
1986
大家可以注意到,前面四個世紀
01:57
there's hardly幾乎不 any growth發展 at all, just 0.2 percent百分.
37
105663
3870
幾乎沒有任何成長,只有 0.2%
02:01
Then growth發展 gets得到 better and better.
38
109533
1619
接著成長越來越快
02:03
It maxes馬克塞斯 out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,
39
111152
2978
在 1930、1940 及 1950 年
有最高的經濟成長率
02:06
and then it starts啟動 slowing減緩 down, and here's這裡的 a cautionary警示 note注意.
40
114130
3757
然後成長逐漸趨緩,要注意的是
02:09
That last downward向下 notch缺口 in the red line
41
117887
2496
紅線中最後一次下滑的部分
02:12
is not actual實際 data數據.
42
120383
2231
不是實際的資料
02:14
That is a forecast預測 that I made製作 six years年份 ago
43
122614
3140
是我六年前做的預測
02:17
that growth發展 would slow down to 1.3 percent百分.
44
125754
2629
經濟成長將下滑至 1.3%
02:20
But you know what the actual實際 facts事實 are?
45
128383
2010
但是你們知道實際數據是多少嗎?
02:22
You know what the growth發展 in per-person每人 income收入 has been
46
130393
1813
你們知道過去六年,美國每人所得
02:24
in the United聯合的 States狀態 in the last six years年份?
47
132206
2892
成長率是多少嗎?
02:27
Negative.
48
135098
2340
是負數
02:29
This led to a fantasy幻想.
49
137438
2271
假設一下
02:31
What if I try to fit適合 a curved彎曲 line to this historical歷史的 record記錄?
50
139709
5246
我試著以曲線表示這份歷史紀錄
02:36
I can make the curved彎曲 line end結束 anywhere隨地 I wanted,
51
144955
3968
我可以自己決定曲線在哪裡結束
02:40
but I decided決定 I would end結束 it at 0.2,
52
148923
2794
我認為會在 0.2 的部分
02:43
just like the U.K. growth發展 for the first four centuries百年.
53
151717
4825
就跟英國前面四個世紀一樣
02:48
Now the history歷史 that we've我們已經 achieved實現 is that we've我們已經 grown長大的
54
156542
3364
歷史上我們的經濟成長表現是
02:51
at 2.0 percent百分 per year over the whole整個 period,
55
159906
4061
從 1891 年到 2007 年,每年都成長了
02:55
1891 to 2007,
56
163967
3188
2%
02:59
and remember記得 it's been a little bit negative since以來 2007.
57
167155
3624
而且別忘了從 2007 年就開始出現負成長
03:02
But if growth發展 slows減緩 down,
58
170779
2305
如果成長趨緩
03:05
instead代替 of doubling加倍 our standard標準 of living活的 every一切 generation,
59
173084
3983
而不是每一代的生活水準都有兩倍成長
03:09
Americans美國人 in the future未來 can't expect期望 to be twice兩次 as well off as their parents父母,
60
177067
4838
未來美國人無法過的
比自己的父母加倍幸福
03:13
or even a quarter25美分硬幣 [more well off than] their parents父母.
61
181905
2970
或甚至連他們幸福的四分之一都不到
03:16
Now we're going to change更改 and look at the level水平 of per capita人頭 income收入.
62
184875
4365
現在我們來看看每人平均所得水準
03:21
The vertical垂直 axis now is thousands數千 of dollars美元 in today's今天的 prices價格.
63
189240
3364
縱軸是以現在物價來衡量的價格
03:24
You'll你會 notice注意 that in 1891, over on the left,
64
192604
2576
大家可以看到在 1891 年,左手邊的部分
03:27
we were at about 5,000 dollars美元.
65
195180
1730
大約是平均 5000 元
03:28
Today今天 we're at about 44,000 dollars美元 of total output產量
66
196910
2905
現在大約每人總產出是
03:31
per member會員 of the population人口.
67
199815
2667
四萬四千元
03:34
Now what if we could achieve實現 that historic歷史性
68
202482
2418
萬一接下來的 70 年,我們可以達到
03:36
two-percent雙百分號 growth發展 for the next下一個 70 years年份?
69
204900
2983
2% 成長的表現,結果會是如何呢?
03:39
Well, it's a matter of arithmetic算術.
70
207883
1332
這就是算術上的問題了
03:41
Two-percent雙百分 growth發展 quadruples四倍 your standard標準 of living活的 in 70 years年份.
71
209215
4140
2% 的成長率,70 年後是現在生活水準的四倍
03:45
That means手段 we'd星期三 go from 44,000 to 180,000.
72
213355
3701
代表我們將從四萬四成長到十八萬
03:49
Well, we're not going to do that,
73
217056
2451
但我們做不到
03:51
and the reason原因 is the headwinds逆風.
74
219507
1826
原因就是那些困境
03:53
The first headwind逆風 is demographics人口統計學.
75
221333
1641
第一個困境是人口統計
03:54
It's a truism老生常談 that your standard標準 of living活的
76
222974
2338
我們都知道,如果每小時的人力增加
03:57
rises上升 faster更快 than productivity生產率, rises上升 faster更快 than output產量 per hour小時,
77
225312
3512
生活水準會成長得比生產力更快
04:00
if hours小時 per person increased增加.
78
228824
2610
也比每小時的產出更快
04:03
And we got that gift禮品 back in the '70s and '80s
79
231434
2502
從 70 和 80 年代
04:05
when women婦女 entered進入 the labor勞動 force.
80
233936
2518
女性投入勞動力,就可以看的出來
04:08
But now it's turned轉身 around.
81
236454
2237
但現在情況不同了
04:10
Now hours小時 per person are shrinking萎縮,
82
238691
2200
現在每小時的人力逐漸在萎縮
04:12
first because of the retirement退休 of the baby寶寶 boomers,
83
240891
2874
第一個原因是因為
嬰兒潮出生的人退休了
04:15
and second第二 because there's been a very significant重大
84
243765
4154
第二個原因是因為
04:19
dropping落下 out of the labor勞動 force of prime主要 age年齡 adult成人 males男性
85
247919
3997
大量男性壯年人口的勞動力下降
04:23
who are in the bottom底部 half of the educational教育性 distribution分配.
86
251916
3938
這些人分布於受教育人口的底層
04:27
The next下一個 headwind逆風 is education教育.
87
255854
2161
第二個困境是教育
04:30
We've我們已經 got problems問題 all over our educational教育性 system系統
88
258015
2645
儘管推動了「力爭上游」的教育改革計畫
04:32
despite儘管 Race種族 to the Top最佳.
89
260660
1521
整個教育體制還是有問題
04:34
In college學院, we've我們已經 got cost成本 inflation通貨膨脹 in higher更高 education教育
90
262181
4082
大學裡,高等教育的成本膨脹
04:38
that dwarfs小矮人 cost成本 inflation通貨膨脹 in medical care關心.
91
266263
2912
使得醫療照顧的成本萎縮
04:41
We have in higher更高 education教育 a trillion dollars美元 of student學生 debt債務,
92
269175
4256
高等教育的學生負債高達一兆美元
04:45
and our college學院 completion完成 rate
93
273431
2987
而我們大學的畢業率
04:48
is 15 points, 15 percentage百分比 points below下面 Canada加拿大.
94
276418
6951
是 15 個百分點,比加拿大低 15 個百分點
04:55
We have a lot of debt債務.
95
283369
2107
我們有很多的債務
04:57
Our economy經濟 grew成長 from 2000 to 2007
96
285476
4982
我們的經濟從 2000 年到 2007 年有所成長
05:02
on the back of consumers消費者 massively大規模 overborrowing過度借貸.
97
290458
3232
是因為消費者大量的借貸
05:05
Consumers消費者 paying付款 off that debt債務 is one of the main主要 reasons原因
98
293690
2936
需要償還貸款的消費者
05:08
why our economic經濟 recovery復甦 is so sluggish遲緩 today今天.
99
296626
2736
就是我們現在經濟蕭條的主因
05:11
And everybody每個人 of course課程 knows知道
100
299362
1586
而大家當然都知道
05:12
that the federal聯邦 government政府 debt債務 is growing生長
101
300948
2129
聯邦政府的公債也在持續上升
05:15
as a share分享 of GDPGDP at a very rapid快速 rate,
102
303077
3329
急速成為國內生產毛額的一部分
05:18
and the only way that's going to stop is some combination組合
103
306406
3162
要阻止債務增加唯一的方法
05:21
of faster更快 growth發展 in taxes or slower比較慢 growth發展 in entitlements權益,
104
309568
5077
是結合高稅率及低津貼的方式
05:26
also called transfer轉讓 payments支付.
105
314645
2085
也叫做轉移支付
05:28
And that gets得到 us down from the 1.5,
106
316730
2169
這使得我們教育有的 1.5% 成長率
05:30
where we've我們已經 reached到達 for education教育, down to 1.3.
107
318899
3401
因負債下滑至 1.3%
05:34
And then we have inequality不等式.
108
322300
2418
最後是不平等的問題
05:36
Over the 15 years年份 before the financial金融 crisis危機,
109
324718
2753
金融危機前 15 年
05:39
the growth發展 rate of the bottom底部 99 percent百分
110
327471
3266
底部 99% 所得分配的成長率
05:42
of the income收入 distribution分配 was half a point slower比較慢
111
330737
3123
比我們之前所提過的平均成長率
05:45
than the averages均線 we've我們已經 been talking about before.
112
333860
2776
還要低 0.5 個百分點
05:48
All the rest休息 went to the top最佳 one percent百分.
113
336636
2286
剩下的都是頂端 1%
05:50
So that brings帶來 us down to 0.8.
114
338922
2352
因此使得我們的成長率下滑至 0.8%
05:53
And that 0.8 is the big challenge挑戰.
115
341274
3375
這 0.8% 又是一大挑戰
05:56
Are we going to grow增長 at 0.8?
116
344649
2214
我們有 0.8% 的經濟成長率嗎?
05:58
If so, that's going to require要求 that our inventions發明
117
346863
2455
如果有,那我們的創新就必須
06:01
are as important重要 as the ones那些 that happened發生
118
349318
2347
和過去 150 年的創新
06:03
over the last 150 years年份.
119
351665
2918
一樣重要
06:06
So let's see what some of those inventions發明 were.
120
354583
4039
我們來看看這些創新有哪些
06:10
If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,
121
358622
3502
在 1875 年,如果你晚上想要讀書
06:14
you needed需要 to have an oil or a gas加油站 lamp.
122
362124
3322
你需要一盞油燈或煤氣燈
06:17
They created創建 pollution污染, they created創建 odors氣味,
123
365446
2157
這些燈會造成污染,產生氣味
06:19
they were hard to control控制, the light was dim暗淡,
124
367603
2405
光線微弱,難以控制
06:22
and they were a fire hazard冒險.
125
370008
2148
還有火災的危險
06:24
By 1929, electric電動 light was everywhere到處.
126
372156
5095
到了 1929 年,到處都有電燈
06:29
We had the vertical垂直 city, the invention發明 of the elevator電梯.
127
377251
4149
因為電梯的發明,我們有了向上發展的城市
06:33
Central中央 Manhattan曼哈頓 became成為 possible可能.
128
381400
2985
曼哈頓的繁榮才能成真
06:36
And then, in addition加成 to that, at the same相同 time,
129
384385
3247
除此之外,同時
06:39
hand tools工具 were replaced更換 by massive大規模的 electric電動 tools工具
130
387632
3496
手持工具被大量的電動工具
06:43
and hand-powered手供電 electric電動 tools工具,
131
391128
2708
和手動操作的電動工具所取代
06:45
all achieved實現 by electricity電力.
132
393836
2858
一切都歸功於電的發明
06:48
Electricity電力 was also very helpful有幫助 in liberating解放 women婦女.
133
396694
4213
電力對於婦女解放也有很大的幫助
06:52
Women婦女, back in the late晚了 19th century世紀,
134
400907
2688
19 世紀晚期,女性
06:55
spent花費 two days a week doing the laundry洗衣店.
135
403595
2656
一週花兩天的時間在洗衣服
06:58
They did it on a scrub擦洗 board.
136
406251
1715
用洗衣板洗衣服
06:59
Then they had to hang the clothes衣服 out to dry.
137
407966
2068
然後還要把衣服拿出去晾乾
07:02
Then they had to bring帶來 them in.
138
410034
1532
再把衣服收進來
07:03
The whole整個 thing took two days out of the seven-day七天 week.
139
411566
2953
整個過程一個禮拜就花了兩天
07:06
And then we had the electric電動 washing洗滌 machine.
140
414519
3587
後來發明了洗衣機
07:10
And by 1950, they were everywhere到處.
141
418106
3074
到了 1950 年,已經普遍使用
07:13
But the women婦女 still had to shop every一切 day,
142
421180
3028
但婦女還是得每天上街買菜
07:16
but no they didn't, because electricity電力
143
424208
2292
事實上不需要,因為電
07:18
brought us the electric電動 refrigerator冰箱.
144
426500
2901
帶動了冰箱的發明
07:21
Back in the late晚了 19th century世紀, the only source資源 of heat in most homes家園
145
429401
3192
19 世紀晚期,大部分家庭唯一的熱源
07:24
was a big fireplace壁爐 in the kitchen廚房 that was used for cooking烹飪 and heating加熱.
146
432593
4529
是廚房裡用來煮飯的大壁爐
07:29
The bedrooms臥室 were cold. They were unheated不加熱.
147
437122
2316
臥房都很冷,沒有暖氣
07:31
But by 1929, certainly當然 by 1950,
148
439438
2680
但是到了 1929 年,更確定是到 1950 年
07:34
we had central中央 heating加熱 everywhere到處.
149
442118
3892
中央暖氣系統已無所不在
07:38
What about the internal內部 combustion燃燒 engine發動機,
150
446010
2592
那麼 1879 年
07:40
which哪一個 was invented發明 in 1879?
151
448602
2340
發明的內燃機呢?
07:42
In America美國, before the motor發動機 vehicle車輛,
152
450942
3818
在美國,車子發明以前
07:46
transportation運輸 depended依賴 entirely完全 on the urban城市的 horse,
153
454760
3972
交通完全倚賴馬匹
07:50
which哪一個 dropped下降, without restraint克制,
154
458732
2886
牠們每天會在街道上無限制的
07:53
25 to 50 pounds英鎊 of manure肥料 on the streets街道 every一切 day
155
461618
3805
排放 25 到 50 磅的糞便
07:57
together一起 with a gallon加侖 of urine尿.
156
465423
1924
以及一加侖的尿液
07:59
That comes out at five to 10 tons daily日常
157
467347
3213
城市每平方英里
08:02
per square廣場 mile英里 in cities城市.
158
470560
2433
一天會有 5 到 10 噸的排放量
08:04
Those horses馬匹 also ate up fully充分 one quarter25美分硬幣 of American美國 agricultural農業的 land土地.
159
472993
5941
那些馬還吃了美國四分之一的農地
08:10
That's the percentage百分比 of American美國 agricultural農業的 land土地
160
478934
2398
這就是美國農地
08:13
it took to feed飼料 the horses馬匹.
161
481332
2193
用來養馬的比例
08:15
Of course課程, when the motor發動機 vehicle車輛 was invented發明,
162
483525
3962
當然,車子發明了以後
08:19
and it became成為 almost幾乎 ubiquitous普及 by 1929,
163
487487
3204
到 1929 年,幾乎已普遍使用
08:22
that agricultural農業的 land土地 could be used for human人的 consumption消費
164
490691
3095
那些農地就能讓人使用
08:25
or for export出口.
165
493786
1534
或是出口
08:27
And here's這裡的 an interesting有趣 ratio: Starting開始 from zero in 1900,
166
495320
3640
這個數據很有趣,1900 年開始
08:30
only 30 years年份 later後來, the ratio of motor發動機 vehicles汽車 to the number of households
167
498960
4916
只過了 30 年,美國每戶擁有車子的比率
08:35
in the United聯合的 States狀態 reached到達 90 percent百分 in just 30 years年份.
168
503876
6584
從 0% 成長到 90%,只花了 30 年
08:42
Back before the turn of the century世紀,
169
510460
2811
在上個世紀之前
08:45
women婦女 had another另一個 problem問題.
170
513271
1401
婦女還遇到另外一個難題
08:46
All the water for cooking烹飪, cleaning清潔的 and bathing洗澡
171
514672
4595
所有煮飯、清潔或梳洗的用水
08:51
had to be carried攜帶的 in buckets水桶 and pails提桶 in from the outside.
172
519267
4670
都必須用水桶從外面裝回來
08:55
It's a historical歷史的 fact事實 that in 1885,
173
523937
2475
這是 1885 年的史實
08:58
the average平均 North Carolina卡羅來納州 housewife家庭主婦
174
526412
2314
北卡羅來納州的家庭主婦
09:00
walked 148 miles英里 a year carrying攜帶 35 tons of water.
175
528726
5370
一年走了 145 英里,裝 35 噸的水
09:06
But by 1929, cities城市 around the country國家
176
534096
4404
但是到了 1929 年,全國各城市
09:10
had put in underground地下 water pipes管道.
177
538500
3015
都建設了地下水道
09:13
They had put in underground地下 sewer下水道 pipes管道,
178
541515
3426
他們鋪了下水道
09:16
and as a result結果, one of the great scourges禍害 of the late晚了 19th century世紀,
179
544941
5182
因此,19 世紀晚期最嚴重的災難
09:22
waterborne水性 diseases疾病 like cholera霍亂, began開始 to disappear消失.
180
550123
4246
透過水所傳染的疾病像霍亂,逐漸消失
09:26
And an amazing驚人 fact事實 for techno-optimistsTECHNO-樂觀
181
554369
3602
對技術樂觀主義者來說,最驚人的是
09:29
is that in the first half of the 20th century世紀,
182
557971
2572
20 世紀前半
09:32
the rate of improvement起色 of life expectancy期待
183
560543
2712
平均壽命改善的速率
09:35
was three times faster更快 than it was
184
563255
2801
比 19 世紀後半
09:38
in the second第二 half of the 19th century世紀.
185
566056
2871
快了 3 倍
09:40
So it's a truism老生常談 that things can't be more than 100 percent百分 of themselves他們自己.
186
568927
5086
所以理所當然你知道
這已經是最好的表現了
09:46
And I'll just give you a few少數 examples例子.
187
574013
2182
我給大家舉一些例子
09:48
We went from one percent百分 to 90 percent百分 of the speed速度 of sound聲音.
188
576195
3268
我們從 0% 的聲速進步到 90%
09:51
Electrification起電, central中央 heat, ownership所有權 of motor發動機 cars汽車,
189
579463
3608
電氣化、中央暖氣系統、汽車
09:55
they all went from zero to 100 percent百分.
190
583071
2363
都從無到有,0% 進步到 100%
09:57
Urban城市的 environments環境 make people more productive生產的 than on the farm農場.
191
585434
3650
比起農場,城市的環境讓我們更有生產力
10:01
We went from 25 percent百分 urban城市的 to 75 percent百分
192
589084
2842
戰後初期,城市化的比率
10:03
by the early postwar戰後 years年份.
193
591926
4128
從 25% 上升至 75%
10:08
What about the electronic電子 revolution革命?
194
596054
2243
那麼電子方面的革命呢?
10:10
Here's這裡的 an early computer電腦.
195
598297
2121
這是早期的電腦
10:12
It's amazing驚人. The mainframe大型機 computer電腦 was invented發明 in 1942.
196
600418
3310
非常驚人,大型電腦在 1942 年時發明
10:15
By 1960 we had telephone電話 bills票據, bank銀行 statements聲明
197
603728
4553
到了 1960 年,我們的電話和銀行帳單
10:20
were being存在 produced生成 by computers電腦.
198
608281
1771
都交由電腦處理
10:22
The earliest最早 cell細胞 phones手機, the earliest最早 personal個人 computers電腦
199
610052
2864
最早的手機、最早的個人電腦
10:24
were invented發明 in the 1970s.
200
612916
2915
都在 1970 年出現
10:27
The 1980s brought us Bill法案 Gates蓋茨, DOSDOS,
201
615831
3255
1980 年代我們有了比爾蓋茲、磁碟作業系統
10:31
ATM自動取款機 machines to replace更換 bank銀行 tellers出納員,
202
619086
2785
以及自動提款機,來取代銀行的出納員
10:33
bar酒吧 code scanning掃描 to cut down on labor勞動 in the retail零售 sector扇形.
203
621871
3893
條碼掃描器減少了零售業的人力
10:37
Fast快速 forward前鋒 through通過 the '90s,
204
625764
1867
一下就到了 90 年代
10:39
we had the dotcom網絡公司 revolution革命
205
627631
1568
我們有了網路革命
10:41
and a temporary臨時 rise上升 in productivity生產率 growth發展.
206
629199
3124
生產力一度上升
10:44
But I'm now going to give you an experiment實驗.
207
632323
2452
現在給大家做個實驗
10:46
You have to choose選擇 either option選項 A or option選項 B.
208
634775
3088
只能選 A 或選 B
10:49
(Laughter笑聲)
209
637863
2515
(笑聲)
10:52
Option選項 A is you get to keep everything invented發明 up till直到 10 years年份 ago.
210
640378
3341
A 選項是你可以保留
一直到 10 年前所發明的東西
10:55
So you get Google谷歌, you get Amazon亞馬遜,
211
643719
2910
所以你有谷歌、亞馬遜可以用
10:58
you get Wikipedia維基百科, and you get running賽跑 water and indoor室內 toilets洗手間.
212
646629
3087
還有維基百科、自來水和室內廁所
11:01
Or you get everything invented發明 to yesterday昨天,
213
649716
1829
或是 B 選項,你可以擁有
直至今日發明的所有東西
11:03
including包含 FacebookFacebook的 and your iPhone蘋果手機,
214
651545
2076
包括臉書和蘋果的智慧型手機
11:05
but you have to give up, go out to the outhouse外屋,
215
653621
2359
但你必須放棄,你必須到外面
11:07
and carry攜帶 in the water.
216
655980
2864
裝水回來
11:10
Hurricane颶風 Sandy caused造成 a lot of people to lose失去 the 20th century世紀,
217
658844
3450
颶風桑迪讓許多人失去了 20 世紀的一切
11:14
maybe for a couple一對 of days,
218
662294
1523
也許是幾天
11:15
in some cases for more than a week,
219
663817
2126
有些人超過一個禮拜
11:17
electricity電力, running賽跑 water, heating加熱, gasoline汽油 for their cars汽車,
220
665943
3540
沒有電、自來水、暖氣和汽油
11:21
and a charge收費 for their iPhonesiPhone手機.
221
669483
2916
也沒辦法幫手機充電
11:24
The problem問題 we face面對 is that all these great inventions發明,
222
672399
3511
現在的問題是,未來我們要有
11:27
we have to match比賽 them in the future未來,
223
675910
3004
比得上這些偉大發明的創新
11:30
and my prediction預測 that we're not going to match比賽 them
224
678914
2588
而我預期,未來不會有更偉大的發明
11:33
brings帶來 us down from the original原版的 two-percent雙百分號 growth發展
225
681502
3195
我們從原來的 2% 成長率
11:36
down to 0.2, the fanciful撒嬌的 curve曲線 that I drew德魯 you at the beginning開始.
226
684697
5070
下滑到我一開始畫的 0.2% 的未來預測
11:41
So here we are back to the horse and buggy越野車.
227
689767
3007
現在回到馬匹及馬車
11:44
I'd like to award an Oscar奧斯卡
228
692774
2321
我想頒個奧斯卡獎
11:47
to the inventors發明家 of the 20th century世紀,
229
695095
3653
給 20 世紀的發明家
11:50
the people from Alexander亞歷山大 Graham格雷厄姆 Bell
230
698748
2741
從亞歷山大·格拉漢姆·貝爾
11:53
to Thomas托馬斯 Edison愛迪生 to the Wright賴特 Brothers兄弟,
231
701489
1703
到湯瑪斯·愛迪生,再到萊特兄弟
11:55
I'd like to call them all up here,
232
703192
1723
我想請他們到這裡來
11:56
and they're going to call back to you.
233
704915
1870
告訴大家
11:58
Your challenge挑戰 is, can you match比賽 what we achieved實現?
234
706785
3663
你們面臨的挑戰是:
能不能戰勝我們的成就呢?
12:02
Thank you.
235
710448
1534
謝謝大家
12:03
(Applause掌聲)
236
711982
5031
(掌聲)
Translated by Iris Chung
Reviewed by Geoff Chen

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert J. Gordon - Economist
Robert J. Gordon is among the most influential macroeconomists in the world. And the big picture he sees is not altogether rosy.

Why you should listen

Robert J. Gordon has written prolifically about the problems facing contemporary economic growth, casting a sobering doubt on the ability of our current innovations (what he calls the "third industrial revolution," including all our fancy gadgets) to power the economy the way previous waves of invention. In a recent paper, he suggests that the repeated doubling of economic growth that characterized the 20th century and was arguably the bedrock for modern society may be decelerating at an alarming rate -- especially for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution. While innovation is continuing apace, he sees the economy buffeted by six headwinds, and a different mix of obstacles for the US economy than for Canada and Europe.

Over the past four decades, he's also done fascinating work on the economics of the airline industry. He's authored hundreds of scholarly articles and five books, including his most recent, Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment: The Collected Essays of Robert J. Gordon, as well as the textbook Macroeconomics, now in its 12th edition. Two key papers to start: "Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds," NBER Working Paper 18315; and “Why Innovation Won’t Save Us,” from the Wall Street Journal.

More profile about the speaker
Robert J. Gordon | Speaker | TED.com