English-Video.net comment policy

The comment field is common to all languages

Let's write in your language and use "Google Translate" together

Please refer to informative community guidelines on TED.com

TED2014

Nicholas Negroponte: A 30-year history of the future

尼葛洛庞帝: 未来的 30 年历史

Filmed
Views 1,890,646

MIT 媒体实验室的创始人尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特带你走上一个游览历史 30 年科技发展的旅程。 这个完美的语言者强调了他在 20 世纪的 70 和 80 年代所看到的那些当时被忽略却现在普及生活的操作界面和发明创兴。他还给你留下了对于未来 30 年的一个预测。

- Tech visionary
The founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world. Full bio

(Video视频) Nicholas尼古拉斯 Negroponte内格罗蓬特:
Can we switch开关 to the video视频 disc圆盘,
(视频)尼葛洛庞帝:我们能调到视频光碟么?
00:12
which哪一个 is in play mode模式?
播放模式是什么?
00:15
I'm really interested有兴趣 in how you put people and computers电脑 together一起.
我对于你如何把人和和电脑放在一起非常感兴趣。
00:17
We will be using运用 the TV电视 screens屏幕 or their equivalents当量
我们将会用电视屏幕或类似的东西
00:22
for electronic电子 books图书 of the future未来.
来当做未来的书籍。
00:25
(Music音乐, crosstalk相声)
(音乐,电信频道之间的串话干扰)
00:30
Very interested有兴趣 in touch-sensitive触摸感应 displays显示器,
对于触摸屏幕,
00:50
high-tech高科技, high-touch高触感, not having
to pick up your fingers手指 to use them.
高科技,高触感,不需要拿起手指就可以操纵它们。
00:52
There is another另一个 way where computers电脑
有另外一种方式电脑和人可以相互接触
00:56
touch触摸 people: wearing穿着, physically物理 wearing穿着.
穿戴高科技的物品。
00:58
Suddenly突然 on September九月 11th,
突然,在 9 月 11 日。
01:08
the world世界 got bigger.
世界变大了。
01:10
NNNN: Thank you. (Applause掌声)
谢谢。(掌声)
01:13
Thank you.
谢谢
01:16
When I was asked to do this,
当我被请来做这个的时候。
01:18
I was also asked to look at all 14 TEDTED Talks会谈
我还被要求观看 14 个 TED 演讲
01:20
that I had given特定,
这些演讲
01:24
chronologically按时间顺序.
都是按时间顺序的。
01:26
The first one was actually其实 two hours小时.
第一个有两小时。
01:28
The second第二 one was an hour小时,
第二个有两小时,
01:30
and then they became成为 half hours小时,
接着变成了半个小时,
01:31
and all I noticed注意到 was my bald spot getting得到 bigger.
我还注意到了我的秃顶越来越严重了。
01:33
(Laughter笑声)
(笑声)
01:37
Imagine想像 seeing眼看 your life, 30 years年份 of it, go by,
想象你看到你30年的是如何经过的,
01:38
and it was, to say the least最小,
至少对于我来说
01:43
for me, quite相当 a shocking触目惊心 experience经验.
是非常震惊的一次经历。
01:46
So what I'm going to do in my time
在这次的演讲中呢
01:50
is try and share分享 with you what happened发生
我将与你们分享
01:52
during the 30 years年份,
这三十年发生了什么,
01:54
and then also make a prediction预测,
并且对未来做一个预知,
01:55
and then tell you a little bit
还告诉你们
01:58
about what I'm doing next下一个.
我将要做的一些事情。
02:00
And I put on a slide滑动
我把我第一次 TED 演讲发生的时间,
02:03
where TEDTED 1 happened发生 in my life.
标注在了 PPT 里。
02:06
And it's rather important重要
这是非常重要的
02:10
because I had doneDONE 15 years年份 of research研究 before it,
因为在那次演讲之前我做了 15 年的调查,
02:12
so I had a backlog积压, so it was easy简单.
我有自己的知识储备,所以并不难。
02:16
It's not that I was Fidel菲德尔 Castro卡斯特罗
不是因为我是菲德尔·卡斯特罗,或是
02:18
and I could talk for two hours小时,
富勒巴基
02:20
or Bucky巴基 Fuller富勒.
可以说上两个小时。
02:22
I had 15 years年份 of stuff东东,
是因为我有 15 年的经验积累,
02:23
and the Media媒体 Lab实验室 was about to start开始.
并且媒体实验室在那时也即将开始。
02:25
So that was easy简单.
这才是简单的原因。
02:27
But there are a couple一对 of things
但是在那个时期,
02:29
about that period
发生的事情。
02:32
and about what happened发生 that are
这些发生的事
02:33
really quite相当 important重要.
是非常重要的。
02:36
One is that
其中一个就是
02:37
it was a period when computers电脑
那是一个当电脑
02:40
weren't yet然而 for people.
还没有普及的时代。
02:43
And the other thing that sort分类 of happened发生
还有一件在那个时期左右
02:45
during that time is that
发生的事情是
02:49
we were considered考虑 sissy娘娘腔 computer电脑 scientists科学家们.
我们被认作为毫无价值的电脑科学家。
02:52
We weren't considered考虑 the real真实 thing.
我们不被关注。
02:55
So what I'm going to show显示 you is, in retrospect回想起来,
所以我要向你们展示的是
02:57
a lot more interesting有趣 and a lot more accepted公认
一个更加有趣
03:01
than it was at the time.
更加被接受的东西。
03:03
So I'm going to characterize表征 the years年份
我将要要描述的
03:05
and I'm even going to go back
我那时的一些
03:08
to some very early work of mine,
工作成果,
03:10
and this was the kind of stuff东东 I was doing in the '60s:
这就是一些我在 60 年代研究的技术:
03:12
very direct直接 manipulation操作,
直接控制电脑,
03:15
very influenced影响 as I studied研究 architecture建筑
在我学习摩西·萨夫迪的建筑学时
03:17
by the architect建筑师 Moshe摩西 Safdie萨夫迪,
那是非常有影响力的,
03:19
and you can see that we even built内置 robotic机器人 things
你还可以看到我们甚至建造
03:22
that could build建立 habitat-like栖息地样 structures结构.
可以建造栖息环境类似结构的机器类东西。
03:24
And this for me was
但这对于我来说
03:27
not yet然而 the Media媒体 Lab实验室,
还不算是媒体实验室,
03:29
but was the beginning开始 of what I'll call
但这是我将要称作为
03:31
sensory感觉的 computing计算,
感官计算的雏形,
03:33
and I pick fingers手指
我选择手指
03:35
partly部分地 because everybody每个人 thought it was ridiculous荒谬.
部分原因是因为所有人都认为这是荒唐的。
03:37
Papers文件 were published发表
关于使用手指控制是多么愚蠢的
03:41
about how stupid it was to use fingers手指.
论文被发表。
03:43
Three reasons原因: One was they were low-resolution低分辨率.
有三个原因:第一个是因为低分辨率。
03:47
The other is your hand would occlude
其次是手指会挡住
03:50
what you wanted to see,
你想要看的,
03:52
and the third第三, which哪一个 was the winner优胜者,
第三个,也是这三个之中最重要的,
03:54
was that your fingers手指 would get the screen屏幕 dirty,
你的手指会弄脏屏幕,
03:55
and hence于是, fingers手指 would never be
因此手指
03:59
a device设备 that you'd use.
将永不会是你要使用的设备。
04:01
And this was a device设备 we built内置 in the '70s,
这是一个我们在 70 年代建造的设备,
04:03
which哪一个 has never even been picked采摘的 up.
但从未再继续被继续建造。
04:06
It's not just touch触摸 sensitive敏感,
这不是触摸感应,
04:08
it's pressure压力 sensitive敏感.
而是压敏感应。
04:10
(Video视频) Voice语音: Put a yellow黄色 circle there.
(视频)声音:在哪里放一个黄色的圈。
04:12
NNNN: Later后来 work, and again this was before TEDTED 1 —
尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特:这是之后的研究,但仍然在 TED 1 之前
04:14
(Video视频) Voice语音: Move移动 that west西 of the diamond钻石.
尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特:把那移到菱形西边。
04:17
Create创建 a large green绿色 circle there.
在那里画一个大的绿色圆圈。
04:20
Man: Aw, shit拉屎.
男人:哦,该死。
04:23
NNNN: — was to sort分类 of do interface接口 concurrently同时,
尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特:这就像多界面的同时操控,
04:25
so when you talked and you pointed
当你说的同时你指向某一点
04:29
and you had, if you will,
这也就是
04:31
multiple channels渠道.
多通道感应。
04:34
Entebbe恩德培 happened发生.
恩德培发生过一企事件。
04:35
1976, Air空气 France法国 was hijacked劫持,
在 1974 年,法国航空被劫机,
04:37
taken采取 to Entebbe恩德培,
被带到恩德培,
04:41
and the Israelis以色列人 not only did an extraordinary非凡 rescue拯救,
以色列人不仅进行了一次完美的救援,
04:43
they did it partly部分地 because they had practiced
因为他们
04:48
on a physical物理 model模型 of the airport飞机场,
在实际模型上排练过,
04:50
because they had built内置 the airport飞机场,
因为他们造了这个机场,
04:52
so they built内置 a model模型 in the desert沙漠,
在沙漠里建造了一个模型
04:53
and when they arrived到达 at Entebbe恩德培,
当他们到达恩德培时,
04:55
they knew知道 where to go because
they had actually其实 been there.
他们知道该往哪里走,因为他们在模型里演练过。
04:57
The U.S. government政府 asked some of us, '76,
在 76 年美国政府问我们中的一些人
05:00
if we could replicate复制 that computationally计算,
我们是否可以以电脑的方式复制出那个东西,
05:03
and of course课程 somebody like myself says yes.
像我这样的人肯定是说了可以。
05:06
Immediately立即, you get a contract合同,
立刻你便得到一份合同,
05:08
Department of Defense防御,
防御部门,
05:10
and we built内置 this truck卡车 and this rig操纵.
我们之后便造了这个卡车和其配备。
05:11
We did sort分类 of a simulation模拟,
我们大概的做了模拟测试,
05:14
because you had video视频 discs光盘,
因为你有视频碟片,
05:16
and again, this is '76.
而且这仍然还是 76 年的事。
05:18
And then many许多 years年份 later后来,
在过了些年,
05:21
you get this truck卡车,
就有了这个货车,
05:23
and so you have Google谷歌 Maps地图.
和谷歌地图。
05:25
Still people thought,
但仍有人们想
05:28
no, that was not serious严重 computer电脑 science科学,
那不算是严谨的电脑科学,
05:29
and it was a man named命名 Jerry杰瑞 Wiesner威斯纳,
但是恰好 MIT 的校长
05:33
who happened发生 to be the president主席 of MITMIT,
杰里·威斯纳
05:35
who did think it was computer电脑 science科学.
相信这是电脑科学。
05:38
And one of the keys按键 for anybody任何人
一个人想在
05:40
who wants希望 to start开始 something in life:
生活中做出点成就的关键
05:43
Make sure your president主席 is part部分 of it.
是确保你的校长支持你。
05:46
So when I was doing the Media媒体 Lab实验室,
当我开始媒体实验室的时候,
05:49
it was like having a gorilla大猩猩 in the front面前 seat座位.
感觉就像坐在前排的大猩猩。
05:52
If you were stopped停止 for speeding超速
如果我们因为超速被拦截
05:56
and the officer looked看着 in the window窗口
交警向车窗内看
05:58
and saw who was in the passenger乘客 seat座位,
看到了座位里坐的是誰的时候,
06:00
then, "Oh, continue继续 on, sir先生."
他会说:“哦,请您继续开吧。”
06:02
And so we were able能够,
因此我们就可以这样去做,
06:04
and this is a cute可爱, actually其实, device设备, parenthetically附带说明.
这也确实是一个非常可爱的设备。
06:06
This was a lenticular透镜状 photograph照片 of Jerry杰瑞 Wiesner威斯纳
这是杰里威斯纳的透镜照片
06:09
where the only thing that changed in the photograph照片
照片里唯一能够变化的是
06:13
were the lips嘴唇.
是他的嘴唇。
06:15
So when you oscillated振荡 that little piece
当你振荡那小小的
06:16
of lenticular透镜状 sheet with his photograph照片,
一片透镜时,
06:19
it would be in lip sync同步
他就通过零带宽(Zero bandwidth)
06:22
with zero bandwidth带宽.
进行同步
06:24
It was a zero-bandwidth零带宽 teleconferencing电话会议 system系统
这是当时零带宽
06:27
at the time.
的一个远程会议系统。
06:29
So this was the Media媒体 Lab's实验室
这是我们的媒体实验室,
06:31
this is what we said we'd星期三 do,
这也是我们说的所要做的,
06:35
that the world世界 of computers电脑, publishing出版,
电脑,出版等不同的领域
06:37
and so on would come together一起.
将会融合到一起。
06:39
Again, not generally通常 accepted公认,
虽然再一次没有被广泛接受,
06:42
but very much part部分 of TEDTED in the early days.
但是早期TED大会的一个重要部分。
06:44
And this is really where we were headed当家.
这也是我们那时真正迈进的。
06:49
And that created创建 the Media媒体 Lab实验室.
也就是创建媒体实验室的初衷。
06:52
One of the things about age年龄
关于年代
06:54
is that I can tell you with great confidence置信度,
我可以自信的告诉你
06:58
I've been to the future未来.
我去过未来。
07:03
I've been there, actually其实, many许多 times.
实际上我去过那里很多次。
07:05
And the reason原因 I say that is,
我这样说的原因是
07:08
how many许多 times in my life have I said,
我在一生中说过太多
07:10
"Oh, in 10 years年份, this will happen发生,"
“哦,在 10 年内,这个会成为现实的,”
07:12
and then 10 years年份 comes.
十年过去后。
07:14
And then you say, "Oh, in
five years年份, this will happen发生."
然后你说:“哦,在 5 年内这会成为现实的。”
07:16
And then five years年份 comes.
五年又过去了。
07:18
So I say this a little bit with having felt
我这样说是因为我稍稍感到
07:20
that I'd been there a number of times,
我已经去过那里几次了,
07:23
and one of the things that is most quoted
我所说的
07:26
that I've ever said
最频繁被人们所引用的是
07:29
is that computing计算 is not about computers电脑,
电脑计算不仅仅是关于电脑,
07:30
and that didn't quite相当 get enough足够 traction牵引,
但那时没有引起人们的太多注意,
07:33
and then it started开始 to.
但之后便开始了。
07:36
It started开始 to because people caught抓住 on
它的开始是因为人们认识到
07:38
that the medium wasn't the message信息.
媒体不是信息。
07:42
And the reason原因 I show显示 this car汽车
我向你展示这辆车
07:45
in actually其实 a rather ugly丑陋 slide滑动
在这不美观的图片中
07:47
is just again to tell you the kind of story故事
是为了再次告诉你
07:50
that characterized特征 a little bit of my life.
能够描述我生活的一个故事。
07:52
This is a student学生 of mine
这是我的一个学生
07:55
who had doneDONE a Ph博士.D. called "Backseat后座 Driver司机."
他完成了一个叫做“后座驾驶者”的博士任务。
07:57
It was in the early days of GPS全球定位系统,
那时是GPS初生的时代,
08:01
the car汽车 knew知道 where it was,
车子知道其位置,
08:03
and it would give audio音频 instructions说明
他回向驾驶者提出指令
08:04
to the driver司机, when to turn right,
when to turn left and so on.
什么时候右转,或什么时候左转,等等。
08:06
Turns out, there are a lot of things
在那时
08:10
in those instructions说明 that back in that period
很多那些指令
08:11
were pretty漂亮 challenging具有挑战性的,
否是非常具有挑战性的,
08:14
like what does it mean, take the next下一个 right?
比如:之后右转是代表什么意思?
08:16
Well, if you're coming未来 up on a street,
如果你来到一个街口,
08:19
the next下一个 right's正确的是 probably大概 the one after,
下一个右转也许指的是再下一个右边,
08:21
and there are lots of issues问题,
这是有非常多问题的,
08:23
and the student学生 did a wonderful精彩 thesis论文,
这个学生做了一个非常好的课题,
08:24
and the MITMIT patent专利 office办公室 said "Don't patent专利 it.
然而 MIT 的专利处说:“不要申请这项专利。
08:26
It'll它会 never be accepted公认.
他永远不会通过。
08:31
The liabilities负债 are too large.
因为设计责任会很大。
08:33
There will be insurance保险 issues问题.
会有保险问题。
08:35
Don't patent专利 it."
不要申请专利。“
08:37
So we didn't,
我们便没有申请,
08:38
but it shows节目 you how people, again, at times,
这再一次展示了人们
08:40
don't really look at what's happening事件.
看不清眼前正在发生的事。
08:43
Some work, and I'll just go
through通过 these very quickly很快,
有不少事可以说,我在这里快速的过一下,
08:47
a lot of sensory感觉的 stuff东东.
有很多比较敏感的话题。
08:50
You might威力 recognize认识 a young年轻 Yo-Yo悠悠球 Ma
你可能认出年轻的马友友(大提琴演奏家)
08:52
and tracking追踪 his body身体 for playing播放
并跟踪他身体
08:54
the cello大提琴 or the hypercellohypercello.
演奏提琴的动作。
08:58
These fellows研究员 literally按照字面 walked
around like that at the time.
那些人在那时候像是这样走路的。
09:01
It's now a little bit more discreet慎重
现在便变得有些
09:05
and more commonplace平凡.
松散和正常了。
09:07
And then there are at least最小 three heroes英雄
现在我想想你们介绍
09:09
I want to quickly很快 mention提到.
三位英雄。
09:12
Marvin马文 Minsky明斯基, who taught me a lot
马文·明斯基,他教了我很多
09:13
about common共同 sense,
关于常识的知识,
09:15
and I will talk briefly简要地 about Muriel穆里尔 Cooper库珀,
我再来简单介绍一下穆里尔·库珀,
09:17
who was very important重要 to Ricky瑞奇 Wurman沃尔曼
她对瑞奇·吴曼和 TED 都很重要
09:20
and to TEDTED, and in fact事实, when she got onstage在舞台上,
而且事实上当她上舞台时
09:23
she said, the first thing she said was,
她说的第一句话是
09:26
"I introduced介绍 Ricky瑞奇 to Nicky尼基."
”我向尼基介绍瑞奇。“
09:28
And nobody没有人 calls电话 me Nicky尼基
从未有人叫过我尼基,
09:30
and nobody没有人 calls电话 Richard理查德 Ricky瑞奇,
也没有人把理查德叫做瑞奇,
09:32
so nobody没有人 knew知道 who she was talking about.
所以人们都不知道她在说什么。
09:34
And then, of course课程, Seymour西摩 Papert帕尔特,
然后,西摩·帕尔特
09:37
who is the person who said,
那个说过
09:40
"You can't think about thinking思维
“你不能去思考什么是思考,
09:41
unless除非 you think about thinking思维 about something."
除非你想去思考某个事情。“的人。
09:43
And that's actually其实 — you can unpack解压 that later后来.
事实上待会你就明白什么意思了。
09:45
It's a pretty漂亮 profound深刻 statement声明.
这是一个相当深奥的说法。
09:51
I'm showing展示 some slides幻灯片
我正在展示的是一些
09:55
that were from TEDTED 2,
来自 TED 2 的 ppt,
09:57
a little silly愚蠢 as slides幻灯片, perhaps也许.
看起来也许有些傻。
09:59
Then I felt television电视 really was about displays显示器.
那时我真的感觉电视就是关于屏幕。
10:02
Again, now we're past过去 TEDTED 1,
现在是在 TED 1 之后,
10:08
but just around the time of TEDTED 2,
在 TED 2 发生前后,
10:11
and what I'd like to mention提到 here is,
我想要提到的是,
10:14
even though虽然 you could imagine想像
即使你可以想象
10:16
intelligence情报 in the device设备,
设备里的智能,
10:18
I look today今天 at some of the work
现在我看看
10:20
being存在 doneDONE about the Internet互联网 of Things,
互联网上的东西,
10:22
and I think it's kind of tragically可悲 pathetic可怜,
我觉得真的是非常悲剧,
10:24
because what has happened发生 is people take
因为正在发生的是
10:27
the oven烤箱 panel面板 and put it on your cell细胞 phone电话,
人们将烤箱面板放到了手机上,
10:29
or the door key onto your cell细胞 phone电话,
或是将要是放到了手机上,
10:33
just taking服用 it and bringing使 it to you,
直接把它带给你,
10:35
and in fact事实 that's actually其实 what you don't want.
但事实上那不是你们想要的。
10:37
You want to put a chicken in the oven烤箱,
当你想把一只鸡放在烤箱里时,
10:40
and the oven烤箱 says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"
烤箱说:”啊哈,这是只鸡。“
10:42
and it cooks厨师 the chicken.
然后便开始烹饪。
10:44
"Oh, it's cooking烹饪 the chicken for Nicholas尼古拉斯,
”哦,他在为尼古拉斯烧鸡,
10:45
and he likes喜欢 it this way and that way."
他喜欢这样那样的烹调方式。“
10:47
So the intelligence情报, instead代替 of being存在 in the device设备,
这样一来我们现在开始将智能,
10:49
we have started开始 today今天
并非实体的存在物
10:52
to move移动 it back onto the cell细胞 phone电话
移回到手机上
10:53
or closer接近 to the user用户,
和使用者更近,
10:56
not a particularly尤其 enlightened开明 view视图
但这并不是一个互联网内
10:58
of the Internet互联网 of Things.
非有启发性的东西。
11:00
Television电视, again, television电视 what I said today今天,
电视,我今天所说的电视
11:03
that was back in 1990,
那是在1990年的时候,
11:06
and the television电视 of tomorrow明天
而未来的电视
11:09
would look something like that.
可能会像是这样。
11:10
Again, people, but they laughed笑了 cynically玩世不恭,
然而那时人们讽刺的笑了
11:13
they didn't laugh with much appreciation升值.
不带任何的欣赏。
11:16
Telecommunications电信 in the 1990s,
在 20 世纪 90 年代,
11:22
George乔治 Gilder镀金工人 decided决定 that he would call this diagram
乔治 吉尔德决定叫这个示意图为
11:24
the Negroponte内格罗蓬特 switch开关.
内格罗蓬特开关。
11:30
I'm probably大概 much less famous著名 than George乔治,
也许我远没有乔治有名,
11:32
so when he called it the Negroponte内格罗蓬特 switch开关, it stuck卡住,
所以当他把这个叫做内格罗蓬特开关时,就没有什么变动了,
11:34
but the idea理念 of things that came来了 in the ground地面
但是这东西的主意
11:38
would go in the air空气 and stuff东东 in the air空气
在地上和空中
11:41
would go into the ground地面
漂浮不定
11:42
has played发挥 itself本身 out.
已经将自己展示出来了。
11:44
That is the original原版的 slide滑动 from that year,
这是当年的原始PPT,
11:46
and it has worked工作 in lockstep锁步 obedience服从.
而且一直都因循守旧地运行着。
11:50
We started开始 Wired有线 magazine杂志.
我们发行了《千奇百怪》杂志。
11:54
Some people, I remember记得 we shared共享
有些和我曾一起
11:56
the reception招待会 desk periodically定期,
在招待会上定期坐一桌的人
12:00
and some parent called up irate发怒的 that his son儿子
和一些家长风怒的表达他的儿子
12:02
had given特定 up Sports体育 Illustrated插图
已经不再订阅体育画报
12:07
to subscribe订阅 for Wired有线,
而改定了《千奇百怪》。
12:09
and he said, "Are you some
porno色情 magazine杂志 or something?"
他还说:“你们这是色情书刊还是什么鬼玩意?“
12:11
and couldn't不能 understand理解 why his son儿子
非常不理解为什么
12:14
would be interested有兴趣 in Wired有线, at any rate.
他的儿子会对《千奇百怪》感兴趣。
12:16
I will go through通过 this a little quicker更快.
我会快一些的把这事描述一下。
12:20
This is my favorite喜爱, 1995,
这是我最喜欢的,在 1995 年,
12:23
back page of Newsweek新闻周刊 magazine杂志.
新闻周刊杂志的背面。
12:26
Okay. Read it. (Laughter笑声)
好的。读一下它。(笑声)
12:29
["Nicholas尼古拉斯 Negroponte内格罗蓬特, director导向器 of the MITMIT Media媒体 Lab实验室, predicts预测 that we'll soon不久 buy购买 books图书 and newspapers报纸 straight直行 over the Internet互联网. Uh, sure."
Clifford克利福德 Stoll斯托尔, Newsweek新闻周刊, 1995]
MIT 媒体实验室的领导人尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特预测:“人们很快就会在互联网上购买书籍和报纸了。好啊,可以啊 (胆子不小,你尽敢这样说)。”
12:31
You must必须 admit承认 that gives you,
你必须得承认这给了你,
12:33
at least最小 it gives me pleasure乐趣
当别人说你比错误一的时候
12:35
when somebody says how dead wrong错误 you are.
至少这给了我快感。
12:37
"Being存在 Digital数字" came来了 out.
“数字化”推出了。
12:41
For me, it gave me an opportunity机会
对于我来说,这给了我机会
12:43
to be more in the trade贸易 press
在印刷行业发展
12:46
and get this out to the public上市,
并将这带入社会,
12:48
and it also allowed允许 us to build建立 the new Media媒体 Lab实验室,
同事还让我们建造了新的媒体实验室,
12:51
which哪一个 if you haven't没有 been to, visit访问,
如果你还没去过,你可以去参观一下,
12:54
because it's a beautiful美丽 piece of architecture建筑
因为它除了是一个工作的好地方
12:56
aside在旁边 from being存在 a wonderful精彩 place地点 to work.
还是一个非常美丽的建筑物。
12:59
So these are the things we were saying in those TEDs海龟逃生装置.
这些便是我们在之前的 TED 所讨论的。
13:02
[Today今天, multimedia多媒体 is a desktop桌面 or living活的 room房间 experience经验, because the apparatus仪器 is so clunky笨重. This will change更改 dramatically显着 with small, bright, thin, high-resolution高分辨率 displays显示器. — 1995]
【今天,多媒体是一个在桌面和起居室中的体验,因为那些设备非常粗笨。将来会被更加小而智能的而取代。】
13:05
We came来了 to them.
我来到它们那里。
13:06
I looked看着 forward前锋 to it every一切 year.
我每年都看看它。
13:08
It was the party派对 that Ricky瑞奇 Wurman沃尔曼 never had
那是对瑞奇 沃尔曼一个从意义上来说
13:10
in the sense that he invited邀请 many许多 of his old friends朋友,
从未有过的聚会
13:13
including包含 myself.
而他在聚会中邀请了很多他的老朋友,还包括我。
13:16
And then something for me changed
之后我
13:17
pretty漂亮 profoundly深深.
发生了一个潜在的改变。
13:20
I became成为 more involved参与 with computers电脑 and learning学习
我和电脑的接触和学习更多了
13:21
and influenced影响 by Seymour西摩,
也被西摩深刻的影响,
13:25
but particularly尤其 looking at learning学习
但是主要专注于
13:28
as something that is best最好 approximated近似
以电脑编程的方式
13:30
by computer电脑 programming程序设计.
去学习。
13:34
When you write a computer电脑 program程序,
当你编程时,
13:36
you've got to not just list名单 things out
你不能只将东西列出来
13:38
and sort分类 of take an algorithm算法
大概的去用一种算法
13:41
and translate翻译 it into a set of instructions说明,
或是仅仅将其翻译成一套教程,
13:42
but when there's a bug窃听器, and all programs程式 have bugs虫子,
但是当程序有漏洞时(所有的程序都有漏洞),
13:45
you've got to de-bug去的bug it.
你得去消除漏洞。
13:48
You've got to go in, change更改 it,
你得进入程序中,改编,
13:50
and then re-execute重新执行,
并重新执行,
13:52
and you iterate迭代,
然后你进行迭代
13:53
and that iteration迭代 is really
而且那个迭代的过程
13:55
a very, very good approximation近似 of learning学习.
是一个非常好的类似学习。
13:58
So that led to my own拥有 work with Seymour西摩
那也让我在像是柬埔寨的地方
14:01
in places地方 like Cambodia柬埔寨
开始我与西摩的工作
14:05
and the starting开始 of One Laptop笔记本电脑 per Child儿童.
并启动了一个孩子一台笔记本电脑的项目。
14:07
Enough足够 TEDTED Talks会谈 on One Laptop笔记本电脑 per Child儿童,
关于此项目的 TED 演讲有足够多,
14:10
so I'll go through通过 it very fast快速,
我就快速地过一下,
14:13
but it did give us the chance机会
但是我们确实获得了
14:14
to do something at a relatively相对 large scale规模
在一个较大的范围上
14:18
in the area of learning学习, development发展 and computing计算.
为学习,发展和电脑计算做些贡献的机会。
14:22
Very few少数 people know that One Laptop笔记本电脑 per Child儿童
很少有人知道一个孩子一台笔记本电脑
14:26
was a $1 billion十亿 project项目,
是一个价值 10 亿美元的项目,
14:29
and it was, at least最小 over the seven years年份 I ran it,
至少有七年我都置身于该项目,
14:31
but even more important重要, the World世界 Bank银行
但更重要的是,
14:34
contributed贡献 zero, USAID你说 zero.
世界银行和 USAID 都作出零贡献。
14:36
It was mostly大多 the countries国家
using运用 their own拥有 treasuries国债,
大多数都是国家使用自己国库资金
14:39
which哪一个 is very interesting有趣,
这是非常有趣的,
14:43
at least最小 to me it was very interesting有趣
至少对我未来要做的事
14:45
in terms条款 of what I plan计划 to do next下一个.
来说非常有趣。
14:46
So these are the various各个 places地方 it happened发生.
这些是那些发生了这些事的地方。
14:49
I then tried试着 an experiment实验,
我接着尝试了一个实验,
14:53
and the experiment实验 happened发生 in Ethiopia埃塞俄比亚.
试验地点在埃塞俄比亚。
14:55
And here's这里的 the experiment实验.
这里边是这个实验。
15:00
The experiment实验 is,
实验是这样的,
15:02
can learning学习 happen发生 where there are no schools学校.
没有学校的地方人们可以学习么。
15:04
And we dropped下降 off tablets平板电脑
我们便发放平板电脑
15:08
with no instructions说明
但不给出使用说明
15:10
and let the children孩子 figure数字 it out.
让孩子们自己搞明白怎么用。
15:13
And in a short period of time,
在很短的一段时间内,
15:16
they not only
他们不仅知道如何开机,而且 5 五天内
15:19
turned转身 them on and were using运用 50 apps应用 per child儿童
每个孩子至少
15:22
within five days,
使用了 50 个应用程,
15:25
they were singing唱歌 "ABCABC" songs歌曲 within two weeks,
在两周内他们便学会了唱 ”ABC“,
15:27
but they hacked砍死 AndroidAndroid的 within six months个月.
但是他们花了 6 个月破解了安卓系统。
15:30
And so that seemed似乎 sufficiently充分地 interesting有趣.
这些事足够有趣。
15:34
This is perhaps也许 the best最好 picture图片 I have.
这也许是我手头上最好的照片。
15:37
The kid孩子 on your right
你们右手的孩子
15:40
has sort分类 of nominated提名 himself他自己 as teacher老师.
把他自己任命为了老师。
15:44
Look at the kid孩子 on the left, and so on.
看左手边的孩子,等等。
15:46
There are no adults成年人 involved参与 in this at all.
没有任何成年人的参与。
15:49
So I said, well can we do this
我问:“我们可以
15:52
at a larger scale规模?
大规模地进行这个实验么?”
15:53
And what is it that's missing失踪?
但又缺少了什么呢?
15:55
The kids孩子 are giving a press conference会议 at this point,
孩子们这个时候正在开发布会了,
15:57
and sort分类 of writing写作 in the dirt污垢.
貌似在土中鞋子。
16:00
And the answer回答 is, what is missing失踪?
答案是:缺少了什么?
16:02
And I'm going to skip跳跃 over my prediction预测, actually其实,
我要跳过我的预测,
16:06
because I'm running赛跑 out of time,
因为我时间不够了,
16:08
and here's这里的 the question, is what's going to happen发生?
问题是:未来会发生什么呢?
16:10
I think the challenge挑战
我认为未来的挑战是
16:14
is to connect the last billion十亿 people,
区连接剩下的 10 亿人,
16:15
and connecting the last billion十亿
将剩下 10 亿连接起来
16:18
is very different不同 than connecting the next下一个 billion十亿,
和连接下 10 亿个是不一样的,
16:21
and the reason原因 it's different不同
原因是不同的
16:24
is that the next下一个 billion十亿
下个 10 亿
16:25
are sort分类 of low-hanging低悬 fruit水果,
像是触手可及的水果,
16:27
but the last billion十亿 are rural乡村.
但是那剩下的 10 亿则是在乡村。
16:29
Being存在 rural乡村 and being存在 poor较差的
乡村和平穷
16:33
are very different不同.
是非常不同的。
16:36
Poverty贫穷 tends趋向 to be created创建 by our society社会,
平穷是由社会所创造出的,
16:37
and the people in that community社区 are not poor较差的
但是同样的方式下
16:41
in the same相同 way at all.
那个社区里的人们是一点都不穷的。
16:47
They may可能 be primitive原始,
他们也许很原始,
16:48
but the way to approach途径 it and to connect them,
但是靠近和连接它们的方式
16:50
the history历史 of One Laptop笔记本电脑 per Child儿童,
一个孩子一台笔记本电脑的项目的历史,
16:54
and the experiment实验 in Ethiopia埃塞俄比亚,
以及在埃塞俄比亚的实验,
16:56
lead me to believe that we can in fact事实
让我相信
17:00
do this in a very short period of time.
我们可以在很短的时间内实现。
17:03
And so my plan计划,
所以我的计划
17:06
and unfortunately不幸 I haven't没有 been able能够
很不幸,此时此刻我不能
17:08
to get my partners伙伴 at this point
找我的伙伴
17:10
to let me announce宣布 them,
去让我在这里介绍他们,
17:13
but is to do this with a stationary静止的 satellite卫星.
但是将用一个同步卫星实现这件事。
17:14
There are many许多 reasons原因
这是有很多原因的,
17:19
that stationary静止的 satellites卫星 aren't the best最好 things,
同步卫星不是最佳的选择,
17:22
but there are a lot of reasons原因 why they are,
但是有很多原因可以解释它们为什么最优,
17:26
and for two billion十亿 dollars美元,
而且 20 亿美元
17:29
you can connect a lot more than 100 million百万 people,
我们可以连接远超过 1 亿人,
17:32
but the reason原因 I picked采摘的 two,
第二个理由
17:36
and I will leave离开 this as my last slide滑动,
我把它留到最后再说,
17:39
is two billion十亿 dollars美元
20 亿美元
17:42
is what we were spending开支
是我们在阿富汗
17:44
in Afghanistan阿富汗
每周耗费的
17:47
every一切 week.
金额。
17:49
So surely一定 if we can connect
所以如果我们可以
17:51
Africa非洲 and the last billion十亿 people
用那样的开销
17:54
for numbers数字 like that,
将非洲和那剩下的 10 亿人连接起来
17:57
we should be doing it.
我们应该已经在做这件事情了。
17:58
Thank you very much.
非常好感谢。
18:00
(Applause掌声)
(掌声)
18:02
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: Stay up there. Stay up there.
克里斯·安德森:先别走,等一会。
18:05
NNNN: You're going to give me extra额外 time?
尼葛洛庞帝:你要给我读一点时间么?
18:10
CACA: No. That was wickedly坏透地 clever聪明, wickedly坏透地 clever聪明.
克里斯·安德森:那真是说的太好了,太好了。
18:12
You gamed耍花招 it beautifully精美.
你的挑战的非常漂亮。
18:14
Nicholas尼古拉斯, what is your prediction预测?
尼葛洛庞帝,你对未来的预测是什么?
18:16
(Laughter笑声)
(笑声)
18:19
NNNN: Thank you for asking.
尼葛洛庞帝:谢谢你问我。
18:21
I'll tell you what my prediction预测 is,
我马上告诉你我的预测是什么,
18:23
and my prediction预测, and this is a prediction预测,
这是我的预测
18:26
because it'll它会 be 30 years年份. I won't惯于 be here.
因为这是未来 30 年的预测,那时我不会在这里了。
18:29
But one of the things about learning学习 how to read,
但是有一点关于学习如何阅读
18:31
we have been doing a lot of consuming消费
我们一直都在用双眼
18:36
of information信息 going through通过 our eyes眼睛,
大量社区信息,
18:39
and so that may可能 be a very inefficient低效 channel渠道.
而且那是个非常低效的方法。
18:41
So my prediction预测 is that we are
going to ingest摄取 information信息
所以我的预测是我们将会摄取信息。
18:44
You're going to swallow a pill and know English英语.
你们会吃下一个药丸便知道如何说英语。
18:49
You're going to swallow a
pill and know Shakespeare莎士比亚.
你将会吃下一个药丸便通晓莎士比亚。
18:52
And the way to do it is through通过 the bloodstream血液.
而实现它的方法是用过血流。
18:55
So once一旦 it's in your bloodstream血液,
一旦它进入到你的血液中,
18:58
it basically基本上 goes through通过 it and gets得到 into the brain,
它基本上就会到达大脑,
19:00
and when it knows知道 that it's in the brain
当它知道他到达了大脑
19:02
in the different不同 pieces,
在不同的地方,
19:04
it deposits存款 it in the right places地方.
它便在正确的地方注入。
19:05
So it's ingesting摄取.
所以这是摄取。
19:08
CACA: Have you been hanging out
with Ray射线 Kurzweil库兹威尔 by any chance机会?
克里斯·安德森:你有和雷库兹威尔聊过么?
19:09
NNNN: No, but I've been hanging
around with Ed埃德 Boyden博伊登
尼葛洛庞帝:没有,但是我经常和埃德宝鼎聊天
19:12
and hanging around with one of the speakers音箱
还有这里的一位演讲者之一
19:15
who is here, Hugh Herr赫尔,
休·赫尔,
19:17
and there are a number of people.
有很多人。
19:19
This isn't quite相当 as far-fetched牵强,
对于未来的 30 年,
19:21
so 30 years年份 from now.
这不是很牵强。
19:22
CACA: We will check it out.
克里斯·安德森:我们会亲眼鉴识的。
19:25
We're going to be back and we're going
to play this clip 30 years年份 from now,
我们将会倒退,30 年后再放出这个视频
19:27
and then all eat the red pill.
你们所有都吃着红色药丸。
19:29
Well thank you for that.
好的谢谢你的好意。
19:32
Nicholas尼古拉斯 Negroponte内格罗蓬特.
尼葛洛庞帝
19:34
NNNN: Thank you.
谢谢
19:36
(Applause掌声)
(掌声)
19:37
Translated by Linus De Phillip
Reviewed by Xiaoou Chen

▲Back to top

About the speaker:

Nicholas Negroponte - Tech visionary
The founder of the MIT Media Lab, Nicholas Negroponte pushed the edge of the information revolution as an inventor, thinker and angel investor. He's the driving force behind One Laptop per Child, building computers for children in the developing world.

Why you should listen

A pioneer in the field of computer-aided design, Negroponte founded (and was the first director of) MIT's Media Lab, which helped drive the multimedia revolution and now houses more than 500 researchers and staff across a broad range of disciplines. An original investor in Wired (and the magazine's "patron saint"), for five years he penned a column exploring the frontiers of technology -- ideas that he expanded into his 1995 best-selling book Being Digital. An angel investor extraordinaire, he's funded more than 40 startups, and served on the boards of companies such as Motorola and Ambient Devices.

But his latest effort, the One Laptop per Child project, may prove his most ambitious. The organization is designing, manufacturing and distributing low-cost, wireless Internet-enabled computers costing roughly $100 and aimed at children. Negroponte hopes to put millions of these devices in the hands of children in the developing world.

More profile about the speaker
Nicholas Negroponte | Speaker | TED.com