ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Deutsch - Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity.

Why you should listen

David Deutsch will force you to reconsider your place in the world. This legendary Oxford physicist is the leading proponent of the multiverse (or "many worlds") interpretation of quantum theory -- the idea that our universe is constantly spawning countless numbers of parallel worlds.

In his own words: "Everything in our universe -- including you and me, every atom and every galaxy -- has counterparts in these other universes." If that doesn't alter your consciousness, then the other implications he's derived from his study of subatomic physics -- including the possibility of time travel -- just might.

In The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch tied together quantum mechanics, evolution, a rationalist approach to knowledge, and a theory of computation based on the work of Alan Turing. "Our best theories are not only truer than common sense, they make more sense than common sense,"Deutsch wrote, and he continues to explore the most mind-bending aspects of particle physics.

In 2008, he became a member of the Royal Society of London.
 

More profile about the speaker
David Deutsch | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2009

David Deutsch: A new way to explain explanation

大卫·多伊奇:科学解释之新探

Filmed:
1,268,796 views

上古的数万年间我们的祖先通过神话来理解世界,他们认知的发展十分缓慢,而科学认知的兴起仅用几个世纪就在世界上产生了翻天覆地的变革。欲知其因,请看物理学家大卫·多伊奇的精妙分析
- Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
I'm sure that, throughout始终 the hundred-thousand-odd十万余 years年份
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我十分确信在人类诞生以来
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of our species'种类' existence存在,
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的大概10万多年
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and even before,
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甚至比这更长的时间里-
00:29
our ancestors祖先 looked看着 up at the night sky天空,
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我们的祖先仰望夜空
00:31
and wondered想知道 what stars明星 are.
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想知道那些星星究竟是什么
00:34
Wondering想知道, therefore因此,
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其实也就是想要
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how to explain说明 what they saw
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把他们看见的东西
00:40
in terms条款 of things unseen看不见.
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用不可见的东西来解释
00:45
Okay, so, most people
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这样的话,大多数人看似
00:49
only wondered想知道 that occasionally偶尔, like today今天,
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只是偶尔如此想想,比如说像在今天
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in breaks休息 from whatever随你
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从日常活动中
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normally一般 preoccupied斤斤计较 them.
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抽空解脱出来的时候才行
00:56
But what normally一般 preoccupied斤斤计较 them
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但实际上人们的日常活动
01:00
also involved参与 yearning怀念 to know.
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同样富含着对知识的渴望
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They wished希望 they knew知道
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人们希望知道
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how to prevent避免 their food餐饮 supply供应
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如何避免食物来源
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from sometimes有时 failing失败,
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不时的中断
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and how they could rest休息 when they were tired
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如何在疲惫时得以充分休整
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without risking冒着 starvation饥饿,
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又不会因为停止劳作而断粮
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be warmer回暖, cooler冷却器, safer更安全,
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如何创造更温暖,或更凉爽;更安全的环境
01:21
in less pain疼痛.
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如何减轻痛苦
01:23
I bet赌注 those prehistoric史前 cave洞穴 artists艺术家
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我敢打赌远古时代的岩洞画家们
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would have loved喜爱 to know
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都想知道
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how to draw better.
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怎样画得更漂亮些
01:30
In every一切 aspect方面 of their lives生活,
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我们的祖先在生活的方方面面
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they wished希望 for progress进展, just as we do.
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都像我们一样地期望进步
01:40
But they failed失败, almost几乎 completely全然, to make any.
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但是他们得到的发展微乎其微
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They didn't know how to.
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他们还不懂其中的秘诀
01:49
Discoveries发现 like fire
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像人工生火这样的重大发明
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happened发生 so rarely很少, that from an individual's个人 point of view视图,
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凤毛麟角,于是乎从一个个人的角度看来
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the world世界 never improved改善.
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世界几乎毫无改善
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Nothing new was learned学到了.
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知识停滞不前
02:04
The first clue线索 to the origin起源 of starlight星光
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星星闪光的奥秘初步被揭开
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happened发生 as recently最近 as 1899: radioactivity放射性.
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是在不久前的1899年- 放射现象
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Within 40 years年份,
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而这之后的仅仅40年间
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physicists物理学家 discovered发现 the whole整个 explanation说明,
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物理学家们发现了一个完整的解释
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expressed表达, as usual通常, in elegant优雅 symbols符号.
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然后像往常一样用简明优雅的数学符号把它表示了出来
02:25
But never mind心神 the symbols符号.
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可别把这些符号不当回事
02:27
Think how many许多 discoveries发现
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想想它们表达了
02:31
they represent代表.
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多少人类的发现
02:33
Nuclei and nuclear reactions反应, of course课程.
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这些么就是原子核 核反应
02:36
But isotopes同位素, particles粒子 of electricity电力,
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再看看这些:同位素 带电粒子
02:43
antimatter反物质,
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反物质
02:47
neutrinos中微子,
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中微子
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the conversion转变 of mass to energy能源 -- that's E=mcMC^2 --
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物质到能量的转化 E=mc^2
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gamma伽马 rays阳光,
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伽马射线
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transmutation蜕变.
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嬗变(一种元素通过核反应转化为另一种元素)
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That ancient dream梦想 that had always eluded躲避 the alchemists炼金术士
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那个古代炼金术师们为之枉费心机的梦想
03:04
was achieved实现 through通过 these same相同 theories理论
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现在由这些
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that explained解释 starlight星光
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解释了星光的实质
03:08
and other ancient mysteries奥秘,
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以及其他古代的谜团
03:11
and new, unexpected意外 phenomena现象.
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和意料之外新现象的理论变为现实
03:14
That all that, discovered发现 in 40 years年份,
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这40年中的所有发现
03:18
had not been in the previous以前 hundred thousand,
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是数千年来所未有的
03:21
was not for lack缺乏 of thinking思维
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而这可不能归结为古人思维懒惰
03:25
about stars明星, and all those other urgent紧急 problems问题 they had.
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对星星啊,还有那些迫切的问题不闻不问
03:29
They even arrived到达 at answers答案,
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他们不光思考了,还给出了答案
03:32
such这样 as myths神话,
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比如说神话
03:34
that dominated占主导地位 their lives生活,
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可虽说神话统治了古人的生活,包罗万象
03:36
yet然而 bore almost几乎 no resemblance相似
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却与真正的现实
03:40
to the truth真相.
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几乎搭不上边
03:42
The tragedy悲剧 of that protracted持久 stagnation停滞
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这种长期认知停滞所造成的悲哀
03:47
isn't sufficiently充分地 recognized认可, I think.
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我觉得,并没有被古人足够重视
03:49
These were people with brains大脑 of
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古人们的大脑
03:51
essentially实质上 the same相同 design设计
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和我们的这些发现了种种新知识的大脑
03:54
that eventually终于 did discover发现 all those things.
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实质上没有分别
03:59
But that ability能力 to make progress进展
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但是其中那个用来产生进步的潜力
04:03
remained保持 almost几乎 unused没用过,
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始终几乎没有被利用
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until直到 the event事件 that
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直到有一件事
04:09
revolutionized革命性 the human人的 condition条件
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彻底更新了人们的生活状态
04:11
and changed the universe宇宙.
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改天换地
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Or so we should hope希望.
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至少我们希望情况是这样的
04:15
Because that event事件 was the
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这个大事件就是
04:17
Scientific科学 Revolution革命,
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科学革命
04:19
ever since以来 which哪一个 our knowledge知识
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从那以后我们对于
04:21
of the physical物理 world世界,
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物质世界的认知
04:23
and of how to adapt适应 it to our wishes祝福,
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和对如何根据我们的意愿改造它的了解
04:27
has been growing生长 relentlessly无情.
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就一个劲地增长着
04:29
Now, what had changed?
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现在想想,到底是发生了什么变化呢?
04:32
What were people now doing for the first time
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当时人们
04:34
that made制作 that difference区别
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究竟初次尝试了什么
04:36
between之间 stagnation停滞
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就打破了僵局
04:38
and rapid快速, open-ended打开端 discovery发现?
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开始了快速而无休无止的发现之旅?
04:42
How to make that difference区别
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这一僵局的打破
04:44
is surely一定 the most important重要 universal普遍 truth真相
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肯定是一个极为重要的广泛真理
04:48
that it is possible可能 to know.
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而我们是可以了解它的
04:50
Worryingly令人担忧的是, there is no consensus共识 about what it is.
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让人担忧的是,对它究竟是怎么做到的人们众说纷纭
04:55
So, I'll tell you.
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我这就来说说我的解释
04:57
But I'll have to backtrack原路返回 a little first.
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但先得稍稍回顾一下
05:01
Before the Scientific科学 Revolution革命,
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在科学革命发生之前
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they believed相信 that everything important重要, knowable可知,
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古人相信一切重要而可知的事物
05:07
was already已经 known已知,
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都已经被了解了
05:09
enshrined供奉 in ancient writings文章, institutions机构,
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这些知识被高高供起在古籍里,经院中
05:12
and in some genuinely真正的 useful有用 rules规则 of thumb拇指 --
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还在日常生活的惯用窍门中被深信不疑
05:15
which哪一个 were, however然而, entrenched根深蒂固 as dogmas教条,
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而这些窍门,和许多谬论一同
05:19
along沿 with many许多 falsehoods虚虚实实.
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都成了根深蒂固的教条
05:21
So they believed相信 that knowledge知识 came来了 from authorities当局
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那时人们相信知识来自权威
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that actually其实 knew知道 very little.
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这些权威其实知道的不多
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And therefore因此 progress进展
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所以知识的进步
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depended依赖 on learning学习 how to reject拒绝
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取决于学会如何摈弃
05:34
the authority权威 of learned学到了 men男人,
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学究
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priests牧师, traditions传统 and rulers统治者.
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教士,传统习惯和统治者们的权威
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Which哪一个 is why the Scientific科学 Revolution革命
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这就是为什么科学革命
05:44
had to have a wider更宽的 context上下文.
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必须有一个大背景
05:46
The Enlightenment启示, a revolution革命 in how
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那就是启蒙运动
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people sought追捧 knowledge知识,
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对于求知方法的一场革命
05:53
trying not to rely依靠 on authority权威.
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试着摆脱对权威的依赖
05:56
"Take no one's那些 word for it."
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“切勿轻信人言”
05:58
But that can't be what made制作 the difference区别.
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可这还不够
06:02
Authorities当局 had been rejected拒绝 before, many许多 times.
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历史上摈弃权威的例子比比皆是
06:04
And that rarely很少, if ever,
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而这些事件的结果却很难,或根本不能
06:06
caused造成 anything like the Scientific科学 Revolution革命.
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与科学革命同日而语
06:10
At the time, what they thought
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在那个时候,启蒙学者们认为
06:12
distinguished杰出的 science科学
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科学的独特标志
06:14
was a radical激进 idea理念 about things unseen看不见,
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是一个关于不可见事物的激进看法
06:18
known已知 as empiricism经验主义.
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叫做经验主义
06:21
All knowledge知识 derives导出 from the senses感官.
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认为所有的知识来自我们的感官
06:26
Well, we've我们已经 seen看到 that that can't be true真正.
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呵呵,我们知道这样说有些偏颇
06:29
It did help by promoting促进
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但经验主义成就了
06:33
observation意见 and experiment实验.
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科学观察与实验
06:35
But, from the outset开始, it was obvious明显
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然而乍一看之下,似乎很明显地
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that there was something horribly可怕 wrong错误 with it.
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经验主义存在着可怕的漏洞
06:40
Knowledge知识 comes from the senses感官.
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“知识源自感官”
06:42
In what language语言? Certainly当然 not the language语言 of mathematics数学,
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那么感官得来的知识由什么语言承载呢?肯定不会是数学语言吧
06:45
in which哪一个, Galileo伽利略 rightly正当地 said,
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可伽利略却有此精辟一语
06:48
the book of nature性质 is written书面.
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“自然之书乃数学著成”
06:51
Look at the world世界. You don't see equations方程
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看看这世界,你看不到山崖上刻着方程式
06:54
carved on to the mountainsides山腰.
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刻着方程式
06:57
If you did, it would be because people
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就算碰巧看到了,那也是因为人们
06:59
had carved them.
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刻上去的
07:01
By the way, why don't we do that?
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顺便问一句,我们干嘛不这样做呢?
07:04
What's wrong错误 with us?
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这不是有毛病嘛?
07:06
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:07
Empiricism经验主义 is inadequate不足
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经验主义本身是不足的
07:09
because, well,
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这大概是因为
07:11
scientific科学 theories理论 explain说明 the seen看到 in terms条款 of the unseen看不见.
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科学理论用不可见的来解释可见的
07:16
And the unseen看不见, you have to admit承认,
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而那些不可见的--你得承认--
07:18
doesn't come to us through通过 the senses感官.
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可不是从感官得来的
07:20
We don't see those nuclear reactions反应 in stars明星.
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我们可看不见恒星中的核反应
07:24
We don't see the origin起源 of species种类.
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看不见物种起源
07:27
We don't see the curvature曲率 of space-time时空,
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还有时空弯曲
07:31
and other universes宇宙.
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其他的平行宇宙
07:33
But we know about those things.
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但我们知道这些
07:36
How?
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我们是怎么做到的呢?
07:38
Well, the classic经典 empiricist经验主义 answer回答 is induction感应.
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经验主义的经典的答案是“归纳法”
07:43
The unseen看不见 resembles酷似 the seen看到.
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认为不可见的与可见的相似
07:47
But it doesn't.
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其实不然
07:49
You know what the clinching evidence证据 was
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你能找到一个决定性的反例
07:51
that space-time时空 is curved弯曲?
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比如:时空是弯曲的这一事实
07:54
It was a photograph照片, not of space-time时空,
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我们知道它的证据是一张照片,不是关于时空本身
07:57
but of an eclipse, with a dot there rather than there.
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而是拍摄的一次日食,上面有个小点在这儿而不在那儿
08:01
And the evidence证据 for evolution演化?
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至于物种起源的证据呢?
08:03
Some rocks岩石 and some finches.
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一些岩石和雀类化石
08:06
And parallel平行 universes宇宙? Again: dots there,
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平行宇宙的证据何在啊?又是屏幕上这儿有些点
08:09
rather than there, on a screen屏幕.
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而不是那儿
08:11
What we see, in all these cases,
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这些事例中我们眼睛观察到的
08:14
bears no resemblance相似 to the reality现实
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和事实没有什么相似之处
08:18
that we conclude得出结论 is responsible主管 --
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--所以前面的“相似说”不成立--
08:20
only a long chain of theoretical理论 reasoning推理
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只有一条长长的理论推导与解读的链条
08:24
and interpretation解释 connects所连接 them.
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把它们(观察现象与真理)连在一起
08:26
"Ah!" say creationists神创论.
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于是那些神创论者就说:“啊哈!”
08:29
"So you admit承认 it's all interpretation解释.
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“所以你承认这些科学理论都只是某种解读
08:31
No one has ever seen看到 evolution演化.
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没人知道答案是什么
08:34
We see rocks岩石.
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我们都看得见石头
08:36
You have your interpretation解释. We have ours我们的.
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你有你的理解,我们有我们的
08:39
Yours你的 comes from guesswork猜测,
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你的理解来自理论猜测
08:41
ours我们的 from the Bible圣经."
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我们的来自圣经。”
08:43
But what creationist创造论 and empiricists经验主义者 both ignore忽视
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可是有一点神创论者和经验主义者同时忽略了
08:49
is that, in that sense,
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那就是,从先前的那种意义上看
08:51
no one has ever seen看到 a bible圣经 either,
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没有人真正切实“观察”到一本圣经
08:54
that the eye only detects检测 light, which哪一个 we don't perceive感知.
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眼睛只是探测到阳光,而我们无法有意识地感知它
08:58
Brains only detect检测 nerve神经 impulses冲动.
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大脑只侦测神经脉冲
09:01
And they don't perceive感知 even those as what they really are,
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但却无法感知它们究竟本身是什么
09:04
namely亦即 electrical电动 crackles裂纹.
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而它们其实是带电粒子“小爆破”
09:06
So we perceive感知 nothing as what it really is.
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如此说来我们无法感知任何事物的现实究竟是什么
09:11
Our connection连接 to reality现实
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而我们与现实的联系
09:14
is never just perception知觉.
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从不会只是感知
09:16
It's always, as Karl卡尔 Popper波普尔 put it,
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而是如卡尔·波普尔所说
09:20
theory-laden理论载货.
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充满着理论假设
09:23
Scientific科学 knowledge知识 isn't derived派生 from anything.
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科学知识不是从什么直接推导而来
09:26
It's like all knowledge知识. It's conjectural推测, guesswork猜测,
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而是像所有其他知识一样,是假设性的,一种推测
09:31
tested测试 by observation意见,
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由观察来检验
09:33
not derived派生 from it.
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却不从观察直接推导而来
09:37
So, were testable可测试 conjectures猜想
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这么说来,是不是可以检验的假设
09:40
the great innovation革新 that opened打开 the intellectual知识分子 prison监狱 gates?
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就是把人类放出认知牢笼的伟大发明呢?
09:44
No. Contrary相反 to what's usually平时 said,
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不是。和人们常常所说的不同
09:47
testability可测试性 is common共同,
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可检验性其实不稀奇,就是
09:49
in myths神话 and all sorts排序 of other irrational不合理的 modes模式 of thinking思维.
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在神话和其他非理性的思维方式中都广泛存在
09:53
Any crank曲柄 claiming自称 the sun太阳 will go out next下一个 Tuesday星期二
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随便哪个家伙想说下周二太阳将要熄灭
09:57
has got a testable可测试 prediction预测.
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他的假设都是可检验的
10:00
Consider考虑 the ancient Greek希腊语 myth神话
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让我们想想一个古希腊的神话
10:03
explaining说明 seasons季节.
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是用来解释季节更替的
10:06
Hades哈迪斯, God of the Underworld地狱,
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哈德斯,冥界之神
10:08
kidnaps绑架 Persephone珀耳塞福涅, the Goddess女神 of Spring弹簧,
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绑架了春之神普西芬妮
10:11
and negotiates谈判中 a forced被迫 marriage婚姻 contract合同,
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又强迫她签下一纸婚书
10:14
requiring要求 her to return返回 regularly经常, and lets让我们 her go.
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只允许她每年定时回到地面,然后就放她走了
10:18
And each year,
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于是每一年
10:20
she is magically神奇 compelled被迫 to return返回.
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她都被某种魔力带回冥界
10:23
And her mother母亲, Demeter得墨忒耳,
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她的妈妈迪米特
10:25
Goddess女神 of the Earth地球,
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大地女神
10:27
is sad伤心, and makes品牌 it cold and barren荒芜.
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十分伤心,土地于是冻结荒芜
10:32
That myth神话 is testable可测试.
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这则神话是可以检验的
10:35
If winter冬季 is caused造成 by Demeter's迪米特 sadness,
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如果迪米特的哀伤导致了冬天
10:39
then it must必须 happen发生 everywhere到处 on Earth地球 simultaneously同时.
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那么它必须在地球上的所有地方同时发生
10:43
So if the ancient Greeks希腊人 had only known已知 that Australia澳大利亚
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所以其实只要古希腊人知道澳大利亚
10:46
is at its warmest最温暖 when Demeter得墨忒耳 is at her saddest最可悲,
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在迪米特最伤心时正经历着最热的天气
10:50
they'd他们会 have known已知 that their theory理论 is false.
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它们肯定知道自己的理论错了
10:53
So what was wrong错误 with that myth神话,
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那么这则神话究竟错在哪儿呢?
10:56
and with all pre-scientific前科学 thinking思维,
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科学到来前人们的思维有什么问题呢?
10:59
and what, then, made制作 that momentous重大 difference区别?
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又是什么改变了这一切呢?
11:04
I think there is one thing you have to care关心 about.
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我觉得有一样东西我们得关注
11:08
And that implies暗示
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它同时意味着
11:10
testability可测试性, the scientific科学 method方法,
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可验证性,科学方法
11:13
the Enlightenment启示, and everything.
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启蒙运动,还有前面说的一切
11:15
And here is the crucial关键 thing.
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我现在要说的就是那个万分重要的东西:
11:17
There is such这样 a thing as a defect缺陷 in a story故事.
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一个故事里可能出现缺陷
11:20
I don't just mean a logical合乎逻辑 defect缺陷. I mean a bad explanation说明.
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我不是指逻辑缺陷,我是说坏解释的存在的
11:25
What does that mean? Well, explanation说明
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什么意思呢?所谓解释
11:28
is an assertion断言 about what's there, unseen看不见,
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是一个关于不可见物
11:31
that accounts账户 for what's seen看到.
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如何描述可见物的断言
11:34
Because the explanatory解释性 role角色
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因为普西芬妮婚书
11:37
of Persephone's珀尔塞福涅的 marriage婚姻 contract合同
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对季节的解释作用
11:39
could be played发挥 equally一样 well
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可以完好无损地
11:41
by infinitely无限地 many许多 other
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由无限多个其他
11:43
ad广告 hoc特别 entities实体.
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临时想出的事物来完成
11:45
Why a marriage婚姻 contract合同 and not any other reason原因
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为什么是一纸婚书而不是其他什么原因
11:48
for regular定期 annual全年 action行动?
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使普西芬妮定期往返呢?
11:52
Here is one. Persephone珀耳塞福涅 wasn't released发布.
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我且来举个例子:普西芬妮并没有被放走
11:55
She escaped逃脱, and returns回报 every一切 spring弹簧
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她逃走了,每年春天又回冥府
11:59
to take revenge复仇 on Hades哈迪斯,
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找哈德斯报仇
12:01
with her Spring弹簧 powers权力.
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用她春天的神力
12:03
She cools冷却 his domain with Spring弹簧 air空气,
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她让春风给冥界降温
12:08
venting通风 heat up to the surface表面, creating创建 summer夏季.
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热气排到地上,成了夏天
12:12
That accounts账户 for the same相同 phenomena现象 as the original原版的 myth神话.
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这个说法和先前的神话能解释同样的现象
12:16
It's equally一样 testable可测试.
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而且同样可以检验
12:19
Yet然而 what it asserts断言 about reality现实
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可是它对现实的描述,断言
12:22
is, in many许多 ways方法, the opposite对面.
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却和刚才的在许多方面正好相反
12:24
And that is possible可能 because
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这看似矛盾的情况之所以存在
12:26
the details细节 of the original原版的 myth神话
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是因为原先那个神话的诸多细节™
12:29
are unrelated无关 to seasons季节,
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除了在这则神话的背景中外
12:31
except via通过 the myth神话 itself本身.
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与季节都没有什么联系
12:35
This easy简单 variability变化性
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这种很随意的可变性
12:38
is the sign标志 of a bad explanation说明,
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正是坏解释的标志
12:42
because, without a functional实用 reason原因 to prefer比较喜欢
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因为当没有什么关于细节的解释作用的理由能使我们选择
12:46
one of countless无数 variants变种,
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千万种可能解释中的一个
12:51
advocating主张 one of them, in preference偏爱 to the others其他,
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唯独支持这一个而抛弃其他
12:53
is irrational不合理的.
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便是不理性的
12:55
So, for the essence本质 of what
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所以,产生变革
12:57
makes品牌 the difference区别 to enable启用 progress进展,
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推进发展的本质原因
13:00
seek寻求 good explanations说明,
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就是追求好解释
13:02
the ones那些 that can't be easily容易 varied多变,
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那些为了保证解释现象的能力
13:05
while still explaining说明 the phenomena现象.
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而不能被轻易改变的解释
13:10
Now, our current当前 explanation说明 of seasons季节
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我们现在对季节的解释
13:13
is that the Earth's地球 axis is tilted like that,
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是说地球的转轴像这样倾斜着
13:17
so each hemisphere半球 tilts倾斜 toward the sun太阳 for half the year,
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所以每个半球在半年中倾向太阳
13:20
and away for the other half.
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另外半年远离阳光
13:23
Better put that up.
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最好放出来看看
13:25
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
13:26
That's a good explanation说明: hard to vary变化,
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这就是个好解释:很难改动
13:31
because every一切 detail详情 plays播放 a functional实用 role角色.
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因为每一个细节都对有至关重要的解释作用
13:34
For instance, we know, independently独立地 of seasons季节,
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比如说,我们不用明白季节就知道
13:37
that surfaces tilted away
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背向发光物体的表面
13:39
from radiant辐射的 heat are heated加热 less,
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受热的程度较小
13:42
and that a spinning纺织 sphere领域, in space空间,
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空间中自转的这个球体
13:45
points in a constant不变 direction方向.
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指向同一个方向
13:48
And the tilt倾斜 also explains说明
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地轴的倾斜也解释了
13:51
the sun's太阳 angle角度 of elevation海拔 at different不同 times of year,
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太阳在一年中不同的仰角
13:55
and predicts预测 that the seasons季节
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并预测两半球的季节情况
13:57
will be out of phase in the two hemispheres半球.
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正好相反
14:00
If they'd他们会 been observed观察到的 in phase,
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如果观察显示它们相同
14:02
the theory理论 would have been refuted驳斥.
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理论就被驳倒了
14:04
But now, the fact事实 that it's also a good explanation说明,
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可是它作为一个好解释
14:09
hard to vary变化, makes品牌 the crucial关键 difference区别.
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一个难以更改的解释,这一点才是最重要的区别
14:14
If the ancient Greeks希腊人 had found发现 out
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如果古希腊人得知了
14:16
about seasons季节 in Australia澳大利亚,
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澳洲季节的更替
14:19
they could have easily容易 varied多变 their myth神话
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他们很容易就能修改这个神话
14:21
to predict预测 that.
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然后预测说,
14:23
For instance, when Demeter得墨忒耳 is upset烦乱,
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比如,当迪米特为女儿忧愁时
14:25
she banishes撵走 heat from her vicinity附近,
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她把热气从四周驱赶出去
14:28
into the other hemisphere半球, where it makes品牌 summer夏季.
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赶到另一个半球,形成夏天
14:31
So, being存在 proved证实 wrong错误 by observation意见,
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这样看来,尽管被观察所否决
14:34
and changing改变 their theory理论 accordingly于是,
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并被迫据此修改他们的理论
14:36
still wouldn't不会 have got the ancient Greeks希腊人
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古希腊人并没有
14:39
one jot小额 closer接近 to understanding理解 seasons季节,
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离对季节的理解进了那怕一步
14:42
because their explanation说明 was bad: easy简单 to vary变化.
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因为改过的解释仍旧是坏解释:它太易变了
14:45
And it's only when an explanation说明 is good
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而只有当好解释存在
14:48
that it even matters事项 whether是否 it's testable可测试.
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它是否可以验证才值得考虑
14:50
If the axis-tilt轴倾斜 theory理论 had been refuted驳斥,
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倘若“地轴倾斜”理论被观察否定了
14:53
its defenders捍卫者 would have had nowhere无处 to go.
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它的支持者们就无路可退了
14:55
No easily容易 implemented实施 change更改
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没有什么信手拈来的变动
14:58
could make that tilt倾斜
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能让地轴的倾斜
15:00
cause原因 the same相同 seasons季节 in both hemispheres半球.
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在两个半球产生相同的季节
15:05
The search搜索 for hard-to-vary难以改变 explanations说明
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对难以修改的解释的探寻
15:08
is the origin起源 of all progress进展.
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是所有进步之源
15:11
It's the basic基本 regulating调节 principle原理
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这是启蒙运动的
15:14
of the Enlightenment启示.
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基本纲领
15:16
So, in science科学, two false approaches方法 blight枯萎病 progress进展.
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在科学领域,有两种错误阻碍进步
15:20
One is well known已知: untestable不可测 theories理论.
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第一种众所周知:无法验证的空头理论
15:23
But the more important重要 one is explanationlessexplanationless theories理论.
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但更重要的却是不带解释的理论
15:27
Whenever每当 you're told that some existing现有 statistical统计 trend趋势 will continue继续,
299
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每当别人告诉你某个统计数据趋势将会延续下去
15:31
but you aren't given特定 a hard-to-vary难以改变 account帐户
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而又不给你一个难以改动的好解释
15:34
of what causes原因 that trend趋势,
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告诉你这趋势为什么存在
15:37
you're being存在 told a wizard巫师 did it.
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他几乎就是在说某个大仙做了个法就成这样了
15:39
When you are told that carrots萝卜 have human人的 rights权利
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当别人说胡萝卜也是有人权的
15:42
because they share分享 half our genes基因 --
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因为我们有一半基因胡萝卜也有
15:44
but not how gene基因 percentages百分比 confer授予 rights权利 -- wizard巫师.
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却不说明相同基因的比重怎么引出人权--大仙又来了
15:50
When someone有人 announces宣布 that the nature-nurture自然培育 debate辩论
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当有人宣布认知论中经久不息的“先天-后天”大辩论
15:54
has been settled安定 because there is evidence证据
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2000
已经解决了,因为有证据说明
15:56
that a given特定 percentage百分比 of our
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某个百分比的
15:58
political政治 opinions意见 are genetically基因 inherited遗传,
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政治主张是先天遗传的
16:02
but they don't explain说明 how genes基因 cause原因 opinions意见,
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但他们却不解释基因怎么导致某些意见
16:06
they've他们已经 settled安定 nothing. They are saying that our
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它们就什么也没解决。他们只是说
16:08
opinions意见 are caused造成 by wizards奇才,
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我们的主张是变来的
16:10
and presumably想必 so are their own拥有.
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估计他们自己的也是变来的
16:13
That the truth真相 consists of
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真理体现在
16:16
hard to vary变化 assertions断言 about reality现实
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对现实提出的无法轻易改动的论断
16:20
is the most important重要 fact事实
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这是物质世界中
16:23
about the physical物理 world世界.
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最重要的一个事实
16:25
It's a fact事实 that is, itself本身, unseen看不见,
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这一事实本身其实也是看不见的
16:28
yet然而 impossible不可能 to vary变化. Thank you.
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但却不可能被东改西改。谢谢大家。
16:32
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Miao Li
Reviewed by Tony Yet

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Deutsch - Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity.

Why you should listen

David Deutsch will force you to reconsider your place in the world. This legendary Oxford physicist is the leading proponent of the multiverse (or "many worlds") interpretation of quantum theory -- the idea that our universe is constantly spawning countless numbers of parallel worlds.

In his own words: "Everything in our universe -- including you and me, every atom and every galaxy -- has counterparts in these other universes." If that doesn't alter your consciousness, then the other implications he's derived from his study of subatomic physics -- including the possibility of time travel -- just might.

In The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch tied together quantum mechanics, evolution, a rationalist approach to knowledge, and a theory of computation based on the work of Alan Turing. "Our best theories are not only truer than common sense, they make more sense than common sense,"Deutsch wrote, and he continues to explore the most mind-bending aspects of particle physics.

In 2008, he became a member of the Royal Society of London.
 

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David Deutsch | Speaker | TED.com