TEDGlobal 2009
David Deutsch: A new way to explain explanation
Dejvid Dojč (David Deutsch): Novi način da se objasne objašnjenja
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1,268,796 views
Desetinama hiljada godina naši preci su tumačili svet kroz mitove, a korak promena je bio zamrznut. Uspon naučnog razumevanja je transformisao svet za samo nekoliko vekova. Zašto? Fizičar Dejvid Dojč predlaže suptilan odgovor.
David Deutsch - Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity. Full bio
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
I'm sure that, throughout the hundred-thousand-odd years
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Siguran sam da su,
tokom stotinak hiljada godina
tokom stotinak hiljada godina
00:23
of our species' existence,
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postojanja naše vrste,
00:26
and even before,
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a čak i pre toga,
00:29
our ancestors looked up at the night sky,
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naši preci gledali u noćno nebo
00:31
and wondered what stars are.
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i pitali se šta su zvezde.
00:34
Wondering, therefore,
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Pitali su se, dakle,
00:36
how to explain what they saw
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kako da objasne ono što su videli
00:40
in terms of things unseen.
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preko stvari koje nisu videli,
neviđenih stvari.
neviđenih stvari.
00:45
Okay, so, most people
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Naravno, većina ljudi se samo pitala
o tome povremeno, kao i danas,
o tome povremeno, kao i danas,
00:49
only wondered that occasionally, like today,
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00:52
in breaks from whatever
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u pauzama između čega god
00:54
normally preoccupied them.
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što ih je uobičajeno preokupiralo.
00:56
But what normally preoccupied them
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Ali, ono što ih je obično preokupiralo
01:00
also involved yearning to know.
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je takođe uključivalo čežnju za znanjem.
01:03
They wished they knew
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Oni su želeli da znaju
kako da spreče da im snabdevanje hranom
01:06
how to prevent their food supply
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01:08
from sometimes failing,
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povremeno zakaže,
01:10
and how they could rest when they were tired
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i kako da se odmore kada su bili umorni,
01:13
without risking starvation,
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bez rizika umiranja od gladi,
01:17
be warmer, cooler, safer,
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kako da im bude toplije,
svežije, bezbednije,
svežije, bezbednije,
01:21
in less pain.
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sa manje bola.
01:23
I bet those prehistoric cave artists
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Kladim se da su ti praistorijski
pećinski umetnici
pećinski umetnici
stvarno voleli da znaju
01:26
would have loved to know
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01:28
how to draw better.
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kako da bolje crtaju.
01:30
In every aspect of their lives,
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U svakom aspektu svojih života,
01:35
they wished for progress, just as we do.
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želeli su napredak, baš kao i mi.
01:40
But they failed, almost completely, to make any.
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Ali propali su, gotovo potpuno,
u pokušajima da ostvare bilo kakav.
u pokušajima da ostvare bilo kakav.
01:46
They didn't know how to.
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Nisu znali kako.
01:49
Discoveries like fire
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Otkrića kao što je vatra
01:53
happened so rarely, that from an individual's point of view,
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su se dešavala tako retko,
da sa gledišta pojedinca,
da sa gledišta pojedinca,
01:57
the world never improved.
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svet nije nikada napredovao.
02:00
Nothing new was learned.
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Ništa novo nije bivalo naučeno.
02:04
The first clue to the origin of starlight
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Prvi nagoveštaj o poreklu svetla zvezda
02:07
happened as recently as 1899: radioactivity.
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dogodio se gotovo juče, 1899:
radioaktivnost.
radioaktivnost.
02:14
Within 40 years,
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U roku od 40 godina,
02:16
physicists discovered the whole explanation,
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fizičari su otkrili celo objašnjenje,
02:20
expressed, as usual, in elegant symbols.
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izraženo, kao i obično,
kroz elegantne simbole.
kroz elegantne simbole.
02:25
But never mind the symbols.
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Ali, pustimo simbole.
02:27
Think how many discoveries
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Pomislite koliko mnogo otkrića
02:31
they represent.
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oni predstavljaju.
Jezgra i nuklearne reakcije, naravno.
02:33
Nuclei and nuclear reactions, of course.
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02:36
But isotopes, particles of electricity,
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Ali i izotope, čestice elektriciteta,
02:43
antimatter,
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antimateriju,
neutrine,
02:47
neutrinos,
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pretvaranje mase u energiju -
odnosno, E=mc^2 -
odnosno, E=mc^2 -
02:49
the conversion of mass to energy -- that's E=mc^2 --
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02:53
gamma rays,
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gama zrake,
02:55
transmutation.
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transmutaciju.
02:59
That ancient dream that had always eluded the alchemists
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Taj drevni san koji je uvek
izmicao alhemičarima
izmicao alhemičarima
03:04
was achieved through these same theories
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postignut je kroz iste ove teorije
03:06
that explained starlight
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koje su objasnile svetlost zvezda,
03:08
and other ancient mysteries,
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i druge drevne misterije,
03:11
and new, unexpected phenomena.
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i nove, neočekivane pojave.
03:14
That all that, discovered in 40 years,
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To što sve to, otkriveno za 40 godina,
03:18
had not been in the previous hundred thousand,
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nije bilo otkriveno
u prethodnih sto hiljada godina,
u prethodnih sto hiljada godina,
03:21
was not for lack of thinking
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nije zbog nedostatka razmišljanja
o zvezdama i svim tim drugim
gorućim problemima koje su imali.
gorućim problemima koje su imali.
03:25
about stars, and all those other urgent problems they had.
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03:29
They even arrived at answers,
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Čak su i dolazili do odgovora,
03:32
such as myths,
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kao što su mitovi,
03:34
that dominated their lives,
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koji su dominirali njihovim životima,
03:36
yet bore almost no resemblance
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a nisu imali skoro nikakve sličnosti
sa istinom.
03:40
to the truth.
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03:42
The tragedy of that protracted stagnation
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Tragedija te produžene stagnacije
03:47
isn't sufficiently recognized, I think.
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nije dovoljno prepoznata, ja mislim.
03:49
These were people with brains of
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To su bili ljudi sa mozgovima
03:51
essentially the same design
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suštinski istog dizajna
kakav na kraju jeste otkrio
sve ove stvari.
sve ove stvari.
03:54
that eventually did discover all those things.
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Ali sposobnost da se postigne napredak
03:59
But that ability to make progress
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je ostala skoro nekorišćena,
04:03
remained almost unused,
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04:06
until the event that
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sve do događaja
koji je potpuno preokrenuo
ljudske okolnosti
ljudske okolnosti
04:09
revolutionized the human condition
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04:11
and changed the universe.
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i promenio univerzum.
04:13
Or so we should hope.
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Ili se barem nadajmo da jeste.
04:15
Because that event was the
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Jer taj događaj je bila
naučna revolucija,
04:17
Scientific Revolution,
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04:19
ever since which our knowledge
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od koje je stalno naše znanje
o fizičkom svetu
o fizičkom svetu
04:21
of the physical world,
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04:23
and of how to adapt it to our wishes,
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i o načinu kako da ga prilagodimo
svojim željama neumoljivo raslo.
svojim željama neumoljivo raslo.
04:27
has been growing relentlessly.
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04:29
Now, what had changed?
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Sada, šta se to bilo promenilo?
04:32
What were people now doing for the first time
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Šta su to tada ljudi po prvi put radili
04:34
that made that difference
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što je napravilo tu razliku
između stagnacije
04:36
between stagnation
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04:38
and rapid, open-ended discovery?
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i brzog, neograničenog otkrivanja?
04:42
How to make that difference
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Kako napraviti tu razliku
04:44
is surely the most important universal truth
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je sigurno najvažnija univerzalna istina
koju je moguće spoznati.
04:48
that it is possible to know.
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04:50
Worryingly, there is no consensus about what it is.
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Zabrinjavajuće je, ali nema
konsenzusa šta je to.
konsenzusa šta je to.
04:55
So, I'll tell you.
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Zato, ja ću vam reći.
04:57
But I'll have to backtrack a little first.
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Ali moraću prvo da se vratim malo unazad.
05:01
Before the Scientific Revolution,
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Pre naučne revolucije,
05:04
they believed that everything important, knowable,
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verovali su da je sve
što je važno, spoznatljivo,
što je važno, spoznatljivo,
05:07
was already known,
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već bilo poznato,
utkano u drevnim spisima, institucijama,
05:09
enshrined in ancient writings, institutions,
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05:12
and in some genuinely useful rules of thumb --
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i u nekim zaista korisnim
iskustvenim pravilima -
iskustvenim pravilima -
05:15
which were, however, entrenched as dogmas,
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ali koja su bila ukorenjena kao dogme,
zajedno sa mnogim neistinama.
05:19
along with many falsehoods.
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05:21
So they believed that knowledge came from authorities
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Oni su verovali da je znanje
dolazilo od autoriteta,
dolazilo od autoriteta,
05:25
that actually knew very little.
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koji su u stvari znali vrlo malo.
05:28
And therefore progress
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I zato je napredak
05:31
depended on learning how to reject
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zavisio od učenja kako odbaciti
05:34
the authority of learned men,
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autoritet učenih ljudi,
05:37
priests, traditions and rulers.
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sveštenika, tradicija i vladara.
05:41
Which is why the Scientific Revolution
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I zbog toga je naučna revolucija
morala da ima širi kontekst.
05:44
had to have a wider context.
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05:46
The Enlightenment, a revolution in how
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Prosvetiteljstvo, revolucija u načinu
05:50
people sought knowledge,
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kako su ljudi tražili znanje,
05:53
trying not to rely on authority.
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pokušavajući da se
ne oslanjaju na autoritet.
ne oslanjaju na autoritet.
05:56
"Take no one's word for it."
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„Nikome nemojte verovati na reč.“
05:58
But that can't be what made the difference.
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Ali to ne može biti
ono što je napravilo razliku.
ono što je napravilo razliku.
Autoriteti su odbacivani
i ranije, mnogo puta.
i ranije, mnogo puta.
06:02
Authorities had been rejected before, many times.
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06:04
And that rarely, if ever,
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I to je retko, ako i ikada,
06:06
caused anything like the Scientific Revolution.
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prouzrokovalo bilo šta
nalik naučnoj revoluciji.
nalik naučnoj revoluciji.
06:10
At the time, what they thought
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U to vreme, ono što su smatrali
06:12
distinguished science
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da izdvaja nauku
06:14
was a radical idea about things unseen,
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bila je radikalna ideja
o neviđenim stvarima,
o neviđenim stvarima,
06:18
known as empiricism.
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poznata kao empiricizam.
06:21
All knowledge derives from the senses.
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Sve znanje proizlazi iz čula.
06:26
Well, we've seen that that can't be true.
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Pa, videli smo da to ne može biti istina.
06:29
It did help by promoting
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Jeste pomoglo promovišući
posmatranje i eksperiment.
06:33
observation and experiment.
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06:35
But, from the outset, it was obvious
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Ali, od početka je bilo očigledno
06:37
that there was something horribly wrong with it.
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da ima nešto užasno pogrešno u tome.
06:40
Knowledge comes from the senses.
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Znanje dolazi od čula.
06:42
In what language? Certainly not the language of mathematics,
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Na kojem jeziku?
Sigurno ne na jeziku matematike,
Sigurno ne na jeziku matematike,
06:45
in which, Galileo rightly said,
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na kojem je, kako je Galileo
ispravno rekao,
ispravno rekao,
napisana knjiga prirode.
06:48
the book of nature is written.
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06:51
Look at the world. You don't see equations
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Pogledajte svet.
Vi ne vidite jednačine
uklesane na obroncima planina.
uklesane na obroncima planina.
06:54
carved on to the mountainsides.
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Da ih vidite, to bi bilo
jer su ih ljudi uklesali.
jer su ih ljudi uklesali.
06:57
If you did, it would be because people
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06:59
had carved them.
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Uzgred budi rečeno, zašto to ne radimo?
07:01
By the way, why don't we do that?
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Šta nije u redu s nama?
07:04
What's wrong with us?
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(Smeh)
07:06
(Laughter)
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07:07
Empiricism is inadequate
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Empiricizam je neodgovarajući, jer,
07:09
because, well,
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07:11
scientific theories explain the seen in terms of the unseen.
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pa, naučne teorije objašnjavaju
viđeno preko neviđenoga.
viđeno preko neviđenoga.
A neviđeno, morate priznati,
07:16
And the unseen, you have to admit,
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07:18
doesn't come to us through the senses.
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ne dolazi do nas kroz čula.
07:20
We don't see those nuclear reactions in stars.
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Mi ne vidimo te
nuklearne reakcije u zvezdama.
nuklearne reakcije u zvezdama.
07:24
We don't see the origin of species.
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Ne vidimo poreklo vrsta.
07:27
We don't see the curvature of space-time,
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Ne vidimo zakrivljenost prostor-vremena,
07:31
and other universes.
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niti druge svemire.
07:33
But we know about those things.
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Ali znamo o tim stvarima.
Kako?
07:36
How?
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Pa, klasični odgovor
empiricista je indukcija.
empiricista je indukcija.
07:38
Well, the classic empiricist answer is induction.
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07:43
The unseen resembles the seen.
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Neviđeno nalikuje viđenom.
07:47
But it doesn't.
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Ali, ne nalikuje.
07:49
You know what the clinching evidence was
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Znate li šta je bio ključni dokaz
07:51
that space-time is curved?
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da je prostor-vreme zakrivljeno?
07:54
It was a photograph, not of space-time,
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To je bila fotografija,
ne prostor-vremena,
ne prostor-vremena,
07:57
but of an eclipse, with a dot there rather than there.
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već pomračenja,
sa tačkom tamo umesto ovde.
sa tačkom tamo umesto ovde.
08:01
And the evidence for evolution?
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A dokaz evolucije?
08:03
Some rocks and some finches.
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Nešto kamenja i nekoliko zeba.
08:06
And parallel universes? Again: dots there,
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A paralelni svemiri? Opet: tačke tamo,
umesto ovde, na ekranu.
umesto ovde, na ekranu.
08:09
rather than there, on a screen.
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08:11
What we see, in all these cases,
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Ono što vidimo, u svim ovim slučajevima,
08:14
bears no resemblance to the reality
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ne nosi nikakvu sličnost sa realnošću
08:18
that we conclude is responsible --
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za koju zaključujemo da je odgovorna -
08:20
only a long chain of theoretical reasoning
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samo dugački niz teorijskog rezonovanja
08:24
and interpretation connects them.
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i interpretacija su ono što ih spaja.
08:26
"Ah!" say creationists.
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„Ah“, kažu kreacionisti,
08:29
"So you admit it's all interpretation.
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„Dakle, priznajete
da je sve interpretacija.
da je sve interpretacija.
08:31
No one has ever seen evolution.
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Niko nikada nije video evoluciju.
08:34
We see rocks.
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Vidimo stene.
08:36
You have your interpretation. We have ours.
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Vi imate svoje interpretacije.
Mi imamo svoje.
Mi imamo svoje.
08:39
Yours comes from guesswork,
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Vaše proizilaze iz nagađanja;
08:41
ours from the Bible."
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a naše iz Biblije.“
08:43
But what creationist and empiricists both ignore
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Ali, ono što kreacionisti
i empiricisti ignorišu
i empiricisti ignorišu
08:49
is that, in that sense,
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je da, u tom smislu,
08:51
no one has ever seen a bible either,
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niko takođe nije ni Bibliju video,
08:54
that the eye only detects light, which we don't perceive.
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da oko samo detektuje svetlo,
koje mi iskustveno ne doživljavamo.
koje mi iskustveno ne doživljavamo.
08:58
Brains only detect nerve impulses.
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Mozgovi samo detektuju nervne impulse.
09:01
And they don't perceive even those as what they really are,
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I ne doživljavaju čak ni njih
kakvi stvarno jesu,
kakvi stvarno jesu,
09:04
namely electrical crackles.
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naime, električna pucketanja.
09:06
So we perceive nothing as what it really is.
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Dakle, mi ništa iskustveno ne doživljavamo
onako kakvo u stvarnosti jeste.
onako kakvo u stvarnosti jeste.
09:11
Our connection to reality
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Naša veza sa realnošću
nikada nije samo percepcija.
09:14
is never just perception.
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09:16
It's always, as Karl Popper put it,
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Uvek je, kako je sročio Karl Poper,
09:20
theory-laden.
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opterećena teorijom.
Naučno znanje se ne izvodi ni iz čega.
09:23
Scientific knowledge isn't derived from anything.
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Ono je kao i sve znanje.
09:26
It's like all knowledge. It's conjectural, guesswork,
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Pretpostavljeno, nagađajuće,
09:31
tested by observation,
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testirano opažanjem,
09:33
not derived from it.
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a ne iz njega izvedeno.
09:37
So, were testable conjectures
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Dakle, jesu li proverljive pretpostavke
09:40
the great innovation that opened the intellectual prison gates?
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bile ta velika inovacija koja je otvorila
kapije intelektualnog zatvora?
kapije intelektualnog zatvora?
09:44
No. Contrary to what's usually said,
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Ne. Suprotno onome što se obično govori,
09:47
testability is common,
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proverljivost je često prisutna
09:49
in myths and all sorts of other irrational modes of thinking.
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u mitovima i svim vrstama
drugih iracionalnih načina razmišljanja.
drugih iracionalnih načina razmišljanja.
09:53
Any crank claiming the sun will go out next Tuesday
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Svaki čudak koji tvrdi
da će se sunce ugasiti sledećeg utorka
da će se sunce ugasiti sledećeg utorka
09:57
has got a testable prediction.
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ima proverljivo predviđanje.
10:00
Consider the ancient Greek myth
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Uzmite u obzir antički grčki mit
koji objašnjava godišnja doba.
10:03
explaining seasons.
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10:06
Hades, God of the Underworld,
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Had, bog podzemlja,
10:08
kidnaps Persephone, the Goddess of Spring,
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otima Persefonu, boginju proleća,
10:11
and negotiates a forced marriage contract,
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i sklapa prisilni bračni ugovor
10:14
requiring her to return regularly, and lets her go.
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koji je obavezuje da mu se redovno vraća,
a zatim je pušta.
10:18
And each year,
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I svake godine,
10:20
she is magically compelled to return.
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ona je magično primorana da se vrati.
10:23
And her mother, Demeter,
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A njena majka, Demetra,
10:25
Goddess of the Earth,
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boginja Zemlje,
10:27
is sad, and makes it cold and barren.
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je tužna, pa je čini hladnom i pustom.
10:32
That myth is testable.
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Taj mit je proverljiv.
Ako je zima prouzrokovana
Demetrinom tugom,
Demetrinom tugom,
10:35
If winter is caused by Demeter's sadness,
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10:39
then it must happen everywhere on Earth simultaneously.
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onda se ona mora dešavati
svuda na Zemlji istovremeno.
svuda na Zemlji istovremeno.
10:43
So if the ancient Greeks had only known that Australia
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Tako, da su antički Grci
samo znali da je Australija
samo znali da je Australija
najtoplija kada je Demetra najtužnija,
10:46
is at its warmest when Demeter is at her saddest,
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10:50
they'd have known that their theory is false.
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znali bi da je njihova teorija pogrešna.
10:53
So what was wrong with that myth,
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Pa, šta je bilo pogrešno sa tim mitom,
10:56
and with all pre-scientific thinking,
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i sa svim prednaučnim razmišljanjem,
10:59
and what, then, made that momentous difference?
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i šta je, onda, napravilo
tu značajnu razliku?
tu značajnu razliku?
11:04
I think there is one thing you have to care about.
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Mislim da ima jedna stvar
do koje bi trebalo da vam je stalo.
do koje bi trebalo da vam je stalo.
11:08
And that implies
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A iz nje proizilazi
11:10
testability, the scientific method,
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proverljivost, naučni metod,
prosvetiteljstvo i sve.
11:13
the Enlightenment, and everything.
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I evo te ključne stvari.
11:15
And here is the crucial thing.
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Postoji nešto kao manjkavost u priči.
11:17
There is such a thing as a defect in a story.
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Ne mislim samo na logičku manjkavost.
Mislim na loše objašnjenje.
Mislim na loše objašnjenje.
11:20
I don't just mean a logical defect. I mean a bad explanation.
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Šta to znači?
11:25
What does that mean? Well, explanation
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Pa, objašnjenje je tvrdnja
o onome što postoji, neviđeno,
o onome što postoji, neviđeno,
11:28
is an assertion about what's there, unseen,
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11:31
that accounts for what's seen.
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a što objašnjava ono što je viđeno.
11:34
Because the explanatory role
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Jer, objašnjavajuću ulogu
11:37
of Persephone's marriage contract
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bračnog ugovora Persefone
11:39
could be played equally well
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moglo bi podjednako dobro da odigra
11:41
by infinitely many other
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beskonačno mnogo drugih
11:43
ad hoc entities.
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ad hoc entiteta.
11:45
Why a marriage contract and not any other reason
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Zašto bračni ugovor,
a ne neki drugi razlog
a ne neki drugi razlog
11:48
for regular annual action?
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za redovnu godišnju aktivnost?
Evo jednog. Persefona nije puštena.
11:52
Here is one. Persephone wasn't released.
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Pobegla je, i vraća se svakog proleća
11:55
She escaped, and returns every spring
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11:59
to take revenge on Hades,
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kako bi se osvetila Hadu
12:01
with her Spring powers.
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svojim prolećnim moćima.
12:03
She cools his domain with Spring air,
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Ona hladi njegovu okolinu
prolećnim vazduhom,
prolećnim vazduhom,
12:08
venting heat up to the surface, creating summer.
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izbacujući toplotu gore
na površinu, stvarajući leto.
na površinu, stvarajući leto.
12:12
That accounts for the same phenomena as the original myth.
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To objašnjava isti fenomen
kao i izvorni mit.
kao i izvorni mit.
12:16
It's equally testable.
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I podjednako je proverljivo.
12:19
Yet what it asserts about reality
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Ipak, ono što tvrdi o realnosti
12:22
is, in many ways, the opposite.
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je, na mnoge načine, suprotno.
12:24
And that is possible because
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A to je moguće zbog toga što
12:26
the details of the original myth
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detalji izvornog mita
nisu u vezi sa godišnjim dobima,
12:29
are unrelated to seasons,
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12:31
except via the myth itself.
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osim posredstvom samog mita.
Ova laka varijabilnost
12:35
This easy variability
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je znak lošeg objašnjenja.
12:38
is the sign of a bad explanation,
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Jer, bez funkcionalnog razloga
za preferiranje
za preferiranje
12:42
because, without a functional reason to prefer
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12:46
one of countless variants,
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jedne od bezbrojnih varijanti,
12:51
advocating one of them, in preference to the others,
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braniti jednu od njih,
pretpostaviti je drugima,
pretpostaviti je drugima,
12:53
is irrational.
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je iracionalno.
12:55
So, for the essence of what
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Dakle, za suštinu onoga
12:57
makes the difference to enable progress,
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što pravi razliku da omogući napredak,
13:00
seek good explanations,
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tražite dobra objašnjenja,
13:02
the ones that can't be easily varied,
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ona koja se ne mogu jednostavno varirati,
13:05
while still explaining the phenomena.
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a da još uvek objašnjavaju fenomen.
Sada, naše sadašnje
objašnjenje godišnjih doba
objašnjenje godišnjih doba
13:10
Now, our current explanation of seasons
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13:13
is that the Earth's axis is tilted like that,
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je da je Zemljina osa nagnuta tako
da se svaka hemisfera naginje
prema Suncu polovinu godine,
prema Suncu polovinu godine,
13:17
so each hemisphere tilts toward the sun for half the year,
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13:20
and away for the other half.
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a od Sunca drugu polovinu.
13:23
Better put that up.
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Bolje je staviti i ovo.
13:25
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
13:26
That's a good explanation: hard to vary,
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To je dobro objašnjenje:
teško ga je menjati,
teško ga je menjati,
13:31
because every detail plays a functional role.
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jer svaki detalj igra funkcionalnu ulogu.
13:34
For instance, we know, independently of seasons,
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Na primer, znamo,
nezavisno od godišnjih doba,
nezavisno od godišnjih doba,
13:37
that surfaces tilted away
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da se površine koje su nagnute dalje
13:39
from radiant heat are heated less,
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od toplotnog zračenja manje greju,
13:42
and that a spinning sphere, in space,
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i da rotirajuća kugla, u prostoru,
13:45
points in a constant direction.
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pokazuje stalno u istom pravcu.
A nagnutost takođe objašnjava
13:48
And the tilt also explains
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13:51
the sun's angle of elevation at different times of year,
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ugao elevacije Sunca
u različitim delovima godine,
u različitim delovima godine,
i predviđa da će godišnja doba
13:55
and predicts that the seasons
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13:57
will be out of phase in the two hemispheres.
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biti van faze u dvema hemisferama.
Da su opažena u fazi,
14:00
If they'd been observed in phase,
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14:02
the theory would have been refuted.
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teorija bi bila opovrgnuta.
14:04
But now, the fact that it's also a good explanation,
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Ali ovako, činjenica
da je to i dobro objašnjenje,
da je to i dobro objašnjenje,
14:09
hard to vary, makes the crucial difference.
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teško varijabilno, čini ključnu razliku.
Da su antički Grci saznali
14:14
If the ancient Greeks had found out
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14:16
about seasons in Australia,
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o godišnjim dobima u Australiji,
14:19
they could have easily varied their myth
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mogli su lako prilagoditi svoj mit
14:21
to predict that.
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da to predvidi.
14:23
For instance, when Demeter is upset,
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Na primer, kada je Demetra uznemirena,
14:25
she banishes heat from her vicinity,
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ona protera vrućinu iz svoje blizine
14:28
into the other hemisphere, where it makes summer.
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u drugu hemisferu, gde to stvara leto.
14:31
So, being proved wrong by observation,
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I tako, opovrgavanje opažanjem,
14:34
and changing their theory accordingly,
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pa prigodno variranje teorije,
14:36
still wouldn't have got the ancient Greeks
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ne bi još uvek antičke Grke
14:39
one jot closer to understanding seasons,
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ni za jotu približilo
razumevanju godišnjih doba,
razumevanju godišnjih doba,
jer je njihovo objašnjenje bilo loše:
jednostavno za variranje.
jednostavno za variranje.
14:42
because their explanation was bad: easy to vary.
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14:45
And it's only when an explanation is good
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I samo onda kada je neko objašnjenje dobro
14:48
that it even matters whether it's testable.
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je uopšte i bitno da li je proverljivo.
14:50
If the axis-tilt theory had been refuted,
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Da je teorija o nagibu ose opovrgnuta,
14:53
its defenders would have had nowhere to go.
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njeni proponenti ne bi imali gde.
14:55
No easily implemented change
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Nijedna jednostavno primenjena varijacija
14:58
could make that tilt
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ne bi mogla učiniti da nagib
15:00
cause the same seasons in both hemispheres.
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prouzrokuje ista godišnja doba
u obe hemisfere.
u obe hemisfere.
15:05
The search for hard-to-vary explanations
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Potraga za teško
promenljivim objašnjenjima
promenljivim objašnjenjima
15:08
is the origin of all progress.
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je ishodište celokupnog napretka.
15:11
It's the basic regulating principle
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To je osnovni regulatorni princip
15:14
of the Enlightenment.
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prosvetiteljstva.
I tako, u nauci,
15:16
So, in science, two false approaches blight progress.
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dva pogrešna pristupa razaraju napredak.
15:20
One is well known: untestable theories.
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Jedan je dobro poznat:
neproverljive teorije.
neproverljive teorije.
15:23
But the more important one is explanationless theories.
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Ali onaj važniji je -
teorije bez objašnjenja.
teorije bez objašnjenja.
15:27
Whenever you're told that some existing statistical trend will continue,
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Kada god vam kažu da će se neki
postojeći statistički trend nastaviti,
postojeći statistički trend nastaviti,
15:31
but you aren't given a hard-to-vary account
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ali vam nije dato
i teško varijabilno objašnjenje
i teško varijabilno objašnjenje
15:34
of what causes that trend,
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o tome šta uzrokuje taj trend,
govore vam da je to čarobnjak uradio.
15:37
you're being told a wizard did it.
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15:39
When you are told that carrots have human rights
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Kada vam kažu da šargarepe
imaju ljudska prava,
imaju ljudska prava,
jer dele polovinu naših gena -
15:42
because they share half our genes --
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ali ne i kako procenti gena
dodeljuju prava - čarobnjak.
dodeljuju prava - čarobnjak.
15:44
but not how gene percentages confer rights -- wizard.
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Kada neko objavi da je polemika
urođeno-stečeno
urođeno-stečeno
15:50
When someone announces that the nature-nurture debate
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15:54
has been settled because there is evidence
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rešena jer postoje dokazi
15:56
that a given percentage of our
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da je dati procenat
naših političkih mišljenja
genetski nasleđen,
genetski nasleđen,
15:58
political opinions are genetically inherited,
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16:02
but they don't explain how genes cause opinions,
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ali ne objašnjavaju
kako geni prouzrokuju mišljenja,
kako geni prouzrokuju mišljenja,
16:06
they've settled nothing. They are saying that our
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nisu rešili ništa.
Oni govore da naša mišljenja
prouzrokuju čarobnjaci,
prouzrokuju čarobnjaci,
16:08
opinions are caused by wizards,
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16:10
and presumably so are their own.
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a pretpostavimo, i njihova sopstvena.
16:13
That the truth consists of
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Da se istina sastoji
16:16
hard to vary assertions about reality
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od teško varijabilnih tvrdnji o stvarnosti
16:20
is the most important fact
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je najvažnija činjenica
o fizičkom svetu.
16:23
about the physical world.
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16:25
It's a fact that is, itself, unseen,
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To je činjenica koja je i sama neviđena,
16:28
yet impossible to vary. Thank you.
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a ipak, nemoguće je varirati je.
Hvala vam.
16:32
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Deutsch - Quantum physicistDavid Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity.
Why you should listen
David Deutsch will force you to reconsider your place in the world. This legendary Oxford physicist is the leading proponent of the multiverse (or "many worlds") interpretation of quantum theory -- the idea that our universe is constantly spawning countless numbers of parallel worlds.
In his own words: "Everything in our universe -- including you and me, every atom and every galaxy -- has counterparts in these other universes." If that doesn't alter your consciousness, then the other implications he's derived from his study of subatomic physics -- including the possibility of time travel -- just might.
In The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch tied together quantum mechanics, evolution, a rationalist approach to knowledge, and a theory of computation based on the work of Alan Turing. "Our best theories are not only truer than common sense, they make more sense than common sense,"Deutsch wrote, and he continues to explore the most mind-bending aspects of particle physics.
In 2008, he became a member of the Royal Society of London.
David Deutsch | Speaker | TED.com