ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Deutsch - Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity.

Why you should listen

David Deutsch will force you to reconsider your place in the world. This legendary Oxford physicist is the leading proponent of the multiverse (or "many worlds") interpretation of quantum theory -- the idea that our universe is constantly spawning countless numbers of parallel worlds.

In his own words: "Everything in our universe -- including you and me, every atom and every galaxy -- has counterparts in these other universes." If that doesn't alter your consciousness, then the other implications he's derived from his study of subatomic physics -- including the possibility of time travel -- just might.

In The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch tied together quantum mechanics, evolution, a rationalist approach to knowledge, and a theory of computation based on the work of Alan Turing. "Our best theories are not only truer than common sense, they make more sense than common sense,"Deutsch wrote, and he continues to explore the most mind-bending aspects of particle physics.

In 2008, he became a member of the Royal Society of London.
 

More profile about the speaker
David Deutsch | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2009

David Deutsch: A new way to explain explanation

大衛‧德意志:人類解釋世界之全新觀點

Filmed:
1,268,796 views

數千年來,我們人類的祖先通過神話,並以很緩慢的速度理解這個世界。隨著科學解釋的興起,世界在短短幾個世紀以內改變了很多。這是爲什麽呢?物理學家大衛‧德意志會給我們一個絕妙的答案。
- Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
I'm sure that, throughout始終 the hundred-thousand-odd十萬餘 years年份
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我很確定,在人類這種物種存活的
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of our species'種類' existence存在,
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數十萬年間,
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and even before,
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甚至在更早以前,
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our ancestors祖先 looked看著 up at the night sky天空,
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我們的祖先仰望夜空,
00:31
and wondered想知道 what stars明星 are.
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想知道星星到底是什麼。
00:34
Wondering想知道, therefore因此,
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因此,也很想知道
00:36
how to explain說明 what they saw
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如何以那些看不到的東西
00:40
in terms條款 of things unseen看不見.
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解釋他們所看到的一切
00:45
Okay, so, most people
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好吧,當時的大多數的人
00:49
only wondered想知道 that occasionally偶爾, like today今天,
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就像現在一樣,只是偶而會想知道
00:52
in breaks休息 from whatever隨你
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在閒暇時,那些
00:54
normally一般 preoccupied斤斤計較 them.
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使他們著迷的東西
00:56
But what normally一般 preoccupied斤斤計較 them
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不過那些他們專注的東西
01:00
also involved參與 yearning懷念 to know.
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也跟求知的慾望有關。
01:03
They wished希望 they knew知道
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他們盼望知道
01:06
how to prevent避免 their food餐飲 supply供應
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如何讓食物供給
01:08
from sometimes有時 failing失敗,
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不致偶有匱乏,
01:10
and how they could rest休息 when they were tired
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還有他們疲累時該如何歇息
01:13
without risking冒著 starvation飢餓,
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且不會挨餓,
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be warmer回暖, cooler冷卻器, safer更安全,
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住得更加溫暖,更加涼爽,更加安全
01:21
in less pain疼痛.
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以及讓生活少點的痛苦。
01:23
I bet賭注 those prehistoric史前 cave洞穴 artists藝術家
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我敢說那些史前洞穴的畫家
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would have loved喜愛 to know
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一定很想知道
01:28
how to draw better.
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怎麼樣畫得更好。
01:30
In every一切 aspect方面 of their lives生活,
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在生活上的各個方面,
01:35
they wished希望 for progress進展, just as we do.
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他們渴望進步,就跟我們一樣。
01:40
But they failed失敗, almost幾乎 completely全然, to make any.
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不過,他們幾乎是一敗塗地,沒有獲得任何進展。
01:46
They didn't know how to.
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他們不知道如何進步。
01:49
Discoveries發現 like fire
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像火這類的發現
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happened發生 so rarely很少, that from an individual's個人 point of view視圖,
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極少發生,所以從人的觀點而言,
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the world世界 never improved改善.
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整個世界沒有進步過。
02:00
Nothing new was learned學到了.
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也沒有學過什麼新事物。
02:04
The first clue線索 to the origin起源 of starlight星光
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最早研究星光的起源
02:07
happened發生 as recently最近 as 1899: radioactivity放射性.
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發生在約1899年:放射性。
02:14
Within 40 years年份,
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在四十年之內,
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physicists物理學家 discovered發現 the whole整個 explanation說明,
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物理學家發現了全部的解釋,
02:20
expressed表達, as usual通常, in elegant優雅 symbols符號.
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如同往常,這些解釋以優雅的符號表現出來。
02:25
But never mind心神 the symbols符號.
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不過別管這些符號。
02:27
Think how many許多 discoveries發現
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想想看這些符號
02:31
they represent代表.
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代表多少發現。
02:33
Nuclei and nuclear reactions反應, of course課程.
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當然,有原子核反應。
02:36
But isotopes同位素, particles粒子 of electricity電力,
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同位素、正負電粒子
02:43
antimatter反物質,
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反物質
02:47
neutrinos中微子,
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微中子,
02:49
the conversion轉變 of mass to energy能源 -- that's E=mcMC^2 --
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質能變換,就是E=mc平方
02:53
gamma伽馬 rays陽光,
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伽馬射線
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transmutation蛻變.
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核嬗變 (一種元素通過核反應轉化成另外一種元素)
02:59
That ancient dream夢想 that had always eluded躲避 the alchemists煉金術士
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這些連古代鍊金術士也無能為力的夢想
03:04
was achieved實現 through通過 these same相同 theories理論
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被以上這些理論實現了
03:06
that explained解釋 starlight星光
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這些方程式解釋了星光
03:08
and other ancient mysteries奧秘,
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和其他的古代神話
03:11
and new, unexpected意外 phenomena現象.
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和那些新的,預料不到的現象
03:14
That all that, discovered發現 in 40 years年份,
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所有的這些都在這40年中發現
03:18
had not been in the previous以前 hundred thousand,
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但卻都沒有在過去的千百年中發現
03:21
was not for lack缺乏 of thinking思維
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這不是因為他們缺乏思考
03:25
about stars明星, and all those other urgent緊急 problems問題 they had.
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關於星星,或者那些很緊迫的問題
03:29
They even arrived到達 at answers答案,
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他們其實是有一套答案的
03:32
such這樣 as myths神話,
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例如說用神話來解釋現象
03:34
that dominated佔主導地位 their lives生活,
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這些主宰了他們的生活
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yet然而 bore almost幾乎 no resemblance相似
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雖然這些對於事實
03:40
to the truth真相.
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幾乎沒任何關聯性
03:42
The tragedy悲劇 of that protracted持久 stagnation停滯
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這種知識停滯所帶來的悲劇
03:47
isn't sufficiently充分地 recognized認可, I think.
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我認為並沒有被充分的意識到
03:49
These were people with brains大腦 of
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人類的大腦
03:51
essentially實質上 the same相同 design設計
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本質上都是一樣的構造
03:54
that eventually終於 did discover發現 all those things.
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這樣的構造發現了這些現象
03:59
But that ability能力 to make progress進展
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但是那種進步的能力
04:03
remained保持 almost幾乎 unused沒用過,
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並沒有充分地被發揮
04:06
until直到 the event事件 that
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直到有些事件
04:09
revolutionized革命性 the human人的 condition條件
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徹底地改變了人類的現況
04:11
and changed the universe宇宙.
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和改變了整個宇宙
04:13
Or so we should hope希望.
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或者我們希望透過它大幅改變人類的生活
04:15
Because that event事件 was the
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因為這個事件是
04:17
Scientific科學 Revolution革命,
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科學革命
04:19
ever since以來 which哪一個 our knowledge知識
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從我們有了
04:21
of the physical物理 world世界,
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對現實世界的知識以來
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and of how to adapt適應 it to our wishes祝福,
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怎麼樣利用科學技術來實現我們的願望
04:27
has been growing生長 relentlessly無情.
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這樣的發展就從來沒有停止過
04:29
Now, what had changed?
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現在,什麽改變了?
04:32
What were people now doing for the first time
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人們現在要做什麽
04:34
that made製作 that difference區別
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才能區別開
04:36
between之間 stagnation停滯
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對於知識追求的停滯
04:38
and rapid快速, open-ended打開端 discovery發現?
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和不斷地、開放地探索?
04:42
How to make that difference區別
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如何區分兩者
04:44
is surely一定 the most important重要 universal普遍 truth真相
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無疑地是重要且普遍的真理
04:48
that it is possible可能 to know.
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這是非常好了解的
04:50
Worryingly令人擔憂的是, there is no consensus共識 about what it is.
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麻煩的是,這沒有一個公認的方法
04:55
So, I'll tell you.
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所以,我將告訴你
04:57
But I'll have to backtrack原路返回 a little first.
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但是在這之前我要回溯一點點時間
05:01
Before the Scientific科學 Revolution革命,
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到科學革命之前
05:04
they believed相信 that everything important重要, knowable可知,
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人們認為任何事情都是重要的,可以認知的
05:07
was already已經 known已知,
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而且都已經被知道了
05:09
enshrined供奉 in ancient writings文章, institutions機構,
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這些蘊藏在古代著作中、習俗中
05:12
and in some genuinely真正的 useful有用 rules規則 of thumb拇指 --
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和一些十分有效的經驗法則中
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which哪一個 were, however然而, entrenched根深蒂固 as dogmas教條,
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那些被認為是不可憾動的教義與信條
05:19
along沿 with many許多 falsehoods虛虛實實.
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事實上伴隨著很多漏洞
05:21
So they believed相信 that knowledge知識 came來了 from authorities當局
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所以他們認為知識來源於權威
05:25
that actually其實 knew知道 very little.
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但是其實權威知道的很少
05:28
And therefore因此 progress進展
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所以知識進步為
05:31
depended依賴 on learning學習 how to reject拒絕
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學習著去抵抗權威
05:34
the authority權威 of learned學到了 men男人,
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包括學識淵博的人
05:37
priests牧師, traditions傳統 and rulers統治者.
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神父,習俗傳統和統治者
05:41
Which哪一個 is why the Scientific科學 Revolution革命
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這就是爲什麽科學革命
05:44
had to have a wider更寬的 context上下文.
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擁有更寬廣的背景:
05:46
The Enlightenment啟示, a revolution革命 in how
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我們稱之的啓蒙運動,就是一場
05:50
people sought追捧 knowledge知識,
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人們怎樣去獲取知識的革命
05:53
trying not to rely依靠 on authority權威.
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他們試圖不依靠權威
05:56
"Take no one's那些 word for it."
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"不要把一個人的話當做理所當然的"
05:58
But that can't be what made製作 the difference區別.
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但是這些都不能徹底的改變
06:02
Authorities當局 had been rejected拒絕 before, many許多 times.
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以前權威也被挑戰過很多次
06:04
And that rarely很少, if ever,
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但是很少
06:06
caused造成 anything like the Scientific科學 Revolution革命.
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可以引起像科學革命這樣的事件
06:10
At the time, what they thought
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當時,他們認為
06:12
distinguished傑出的 science科學
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現代科學這種
06:14
was a radical激進 idea理念 about things unseen看不見,
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對無法觀察到的事物進行解釋是頗為激進的想法
06:18
known已知 as empiricism經驗主義.
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這些方法被稱為經驗主義
06:21
All knowledge知識 derives導出 from the senses感官.
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所有的知道都來自感覺、感官
06:26
Well, we've我們已經 seen看到 that that can't be true真正.
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好了,我們現在知道那不是正確的
06:29
It did help by promoting促進
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但這確實對理解有所幫助
06:33
observation意見 and experiment實驗.
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透過觀察和實驗
06:35
But, from the outset開始, it was obvious明顯
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但是,一開始這就很明顯
06:37
that there was something horribly可怕 wrong錯誤 with it.
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這種想法存在著錯誤
06:40
Knowledge知識 comes from the senses感官.
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知識來自於感覺
06:42
In what language語言? Certainly當然 not the language語言 of mathematics數學,
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透過什麽語言?肯定不是數學語言
06:45
in which哪一個, Galileo伽利略 rightly正當地 said,
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伽利略提出正確的聲明
06:48
the book of nature性質 is written書面.
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說大自然的著作早已寫成
06:51
Look at the world世界. You don't see equations方程
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看看這個世界。你沒有看見任何數學方程式
06:54
carved on to the mountainsides山腰.
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刻在任何一座山上
06:57
If you did, it would be because people
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如果你看見了,那只是因為人類
06:59
had carved them.
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刻上去的
07:01
By the way, why don't we do that?
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順便說一句,爲什麽我們不那樣做呢?
07:04
What's wrong錯誤 with us?
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我們怎麼了?
07:06
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑)
07:07
Empiricism經驗主義 is inadequate不足
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經驗主義是不夠的
07:09
because, well,
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因為
07:11
scientific科學 theories理論 explain說明 the seen看到 in terms條款 of the unseen看不見.
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科學理論是通過觀察不到的事物解釋觀察到的現象
07:16
And the unseen看不見, you have to admit承認,
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那些看不到的,你必須承認
07:18
doesn't come to us through通過 the senses感官.
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不是通過我們的感覺就能理解的
07:20
We don't see those nuclear reactions反應 in stars明星.
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我們看不到星星上的核子反應
07:24
We don't see the origin起源 of species種類.
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我們看不到物種的起源
07:27
We don't see the curvature曲率 of space-time時空,
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我們看不到時空彎曲
07:31
and other universes宇宙.
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和其他宇宙
07:33
But we know about those things.
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但是我們知道這些
07:36
How?
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透過什麽呢?
07:38
Well, the classic經典 empiricist經驗主義 answer回答 is induction感應.
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呃,傳統的經驗主義者的回答是"透過歸納法"
07:43
The unseen看不見 resembles酷似 the seen看到.
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看不到的跟能看到的必定有相似之處
07:47
But it doesn't.
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但是事實並不是如此
07:49
You know what the clinching evidence證據 was
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你知道確鑿的證據表明
07:51
that space-time時空 is curved彎曲?
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如果時空的彎曲
07:54
It was a photograph照片, not of space-time時空,
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的證據是一張照片,而不是時空本身
07:57
but of an eclipse, with a dot there rather than there.
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有可能是一次日蝕,上面有小點而不是其他地方
08:01
And the evidence證據 for evolution演化?
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再比如說演化的證據
08:03
Some rocks岩石 and some finches.
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是一些石頭和一些雀科鳥類
08:06
And parallel平行 universes宇宙? Again: dots there,
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平行的宇宙?同樣地:這有小點,
08:09
rather than there, on a screen屏幕.
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而不是別的地方,顯示在營幕上
08:11
What we see, in all these cases,
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我們看到的,在這些例子中
08:14
bears no resemblance相似 to the reality現實
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其實跟現實沒什麼太大的關係
08:18
that we conclude得出結論 is responsible主管 --
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我們的結論是非常合理的
08:20
only a long chain of theoretical理論 reasoning推理
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只有進行一連串理論上的推理和解釋
08:24
and interpretation解釋 connects所連接 them.
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才能把事實和現象做連結
08:26
"Ah!" say creationists神創論.
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哈!創造論者(相信萬物由上帝一次造成的人)說
08:29
"So you admit承認 it's all interpretation解釋.
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你承認這都是解釋了
08:31
No one has ever seen看到 evolution演化.
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沒有人看見過演化
08:34
We see rocks岩石.
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我們只看過石頭標本
08:36
You have your interpretation解釋. We have ours我們的.
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你有你的解釋。我們有我們的
08:39
Yours你的 comes from guesswork猜測,
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你的從推測中來
08:41
ours我們的 from the Bible聖經."
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而我們的是從聖經來
08:43
But what creationist創造論 and empiricists經驗主義者 both ignore忽視
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但是創造論者和經驗主義者都忽略了
08:49
is that, in that sense,
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在某種意義上
08:51
no one has ever seen看到 a bible聖經 either,
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沒有人看過聖經是如何被創造的
08:54
that the eye only detects檢測 light, which哪一個 we don't perceive感知.
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眼睛只感覺光亮,而我們並沒有察覺
08:58
Brains only detect檢測 nerve神經 impulses衝動.
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大腦只接受神經脈衝
09:01
And they don't perceive感知 even those as what they really are,
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他們並沒有意識到組成脈衝的
09:04
namely亦即 electrical電動 crackles裂紋.
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其實是電子訊號
09:06
So we perceive感知 nothing as what it really is.
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所以我們常常不了解現實本身為何物
09:11
Our connection連接 to reality現實
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感官知覺
09:14
is never just perception知覺.
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絕對不是我們用來與現實產生連繫的唯一方法
09:16
It's always, as Karl卡爾 Popper波普爾 put it,
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如同卡爾‧波普爾所說的,
09:20
theory-laden理論載貨.
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科學理論和人類所掌握到的一切知識,都只不過是推測和假想
09:23
Scientific科學 knowledge知識 isn't derived派生 from anything.
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科學知識無從根據
09:26
It's like all knowledge知識. It's conjectural推測, guesswork猜測,
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就像其他知識一樣。是一種推斷,猜測,
09:31
tested測試 by observation意見,
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經過觀察的考驗,
09:33
not derived派生 from it.
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而不是發源於知識本身。
09:37
So, were testable可測試 conjectures猜想
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所以,這些禁得起測試的推論
09:40
the great innovation革新 that opened打開 the intellectual知識分子 prison監獄 gates?
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是巨大的創新嗎?並且打開了智慧的大門嗎?
09:44
No. Contrary相反 to what's usually平時 said,
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不。跟一般說法相反,
09:47
testability可測試性 is common共同,
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可測試性是共通的特點
09:49
in myths神話 and all sorts排序 of other irrational不合理的 modes模式 of thinking思維.
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在神話中和各種其他非理性的想法中。
09:53
Any crank曲柄 claiming自稱 the sun太陽 will go out next下一個 Tuesday星期二
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任何一個怪人都可以聲稱太陽會在下個星期二升起
09:57
has got a testable可測試 prediction預測.
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這就是一個可測試的預測。
10:00
Consider考慮 the ancient Greek希臘語 myth神話
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想想古希臘的神話
10:03
explaining說明 seasons季節.
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解釋季節。
10:06
Hades哈迪斯, God of the Underworld地獄,
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黑帝斯,冥界之神,
10:08
kidnaps綁架 Persephone珀耳塞福涅, the Goddess女神 of Spring彈簧,
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綁架了普西芬妮,春天之神,
10:11
and negotiates談判中 a forced被迫 marriage婚姻 contract合同,
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逼迫她簽下婚姻契約
10:14
requiring要求 her to return返回 regularly經常, and lets讓我們 her go.
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並且要求她定時回去,然後才能放她走。
10:18
And each year,
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每年
10:20
she is magically神奇 compelled被迫 to return返回.
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她就神奇的歸去
10:23
And her mother母親, Demeter得墨忒耳,
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她的母親,迪米特,
10:25
Goddess女神 of the Earth地球,
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大地女神,
10:27
is sad傷心, and makes品牌 it cold and barren荒蕪.
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十分地傷心,所以便讓土地冰冷和荒蕪。
10:32
That myth神話 is testable可測試.
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這個神話可以驗證。
10:35
If winter冬季 is caused造成 by Demeter's迪米特 sadness,
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如果冬天是因為迪米特的悲傷,
10:39
then it must必須 happen發生 everywhere到處 on Earth地球 simultaneously同時.
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那一定會同時發生在世界上每一個角落
10:43
So if the ancient Greeks希臘人 had only known已知 that Australia澳大利亞
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所以如果古希臘人知道澳洲
10:46
is at its warmest最溫暖 when Demeter得墨忒耳 is at her saddest最可悲,
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在迪米特最傷心的時候是最熱的時段,
10:50
they'd他們會 have known已知 that their theory理論 is false.
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那他們就知道他們理論的錯誤了
10:53
So what was wrong錯誤 with that myth神話,
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那些神話
10:56
and with all pre-scientific前科學 thinking思維,
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和那些科學的想法有什麽問題嗎?
10:59
and what, then, made製作 that momentous重大 difference區別?
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到底是什麽能引起這麼大的不同呢?
11:04
I think there is one thing you have to care關心 about.
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我認為你們只需要關心一件事情
11:08
And that implies暗示
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那就是
11:10
testability可測試性, the scientific科學 method方法,
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是否有驗證性,用科學的方法
11:13
the Enlightenment啟示, and everything.
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啓蒙運動,和之前說的一切
11:15
And here is the crucial關鍵 thing.
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這都是非常重要的
11:17
There is such這樣 a thing as a defect缺陷 in a story故事.
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常常在故事裡會有所缺陷
11:20
I don't just mean a logical合乎邏輯 defect缺陷. I mean a bad explanation說明.
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我不是指邏輯缺陷。我說的是錯誤的解釋。
11:25
What does that mean? Well, explanation說明
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這意味這什麽呢?好了,解釋
11:28
is an assertion斷言 about what's there, unseen看不見,
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是一種用看不見的事物
11:31
that accounts賬戶 for what's seen看到.
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來解釋看的見的東西
11:34
Because the explanatory解釋性 role角色
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所以有關普西芬妮的
11:37
of Persephone's珀爾塞福涅的 marriage婚姻 contract合同
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婚約導致四季的變化
11:39
could be played發揮 equally一樣 well
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用其他各種理由
11:41
by infinitely無限地 many許多 other
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來解釋的話
11:43
ad廣告 hoc特別 entities實體.
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應該也說的通
11:45
Why a marriage婚姻 contract合同 and not any other reason原因
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爲什麽是婚約而不是其他原因
11:48
for regular定期 annual全年 action行動?
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導致每年四季規律的行為?
11:52
Here is one. Persephone珀耳塞福涅 wasn't released發布.
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這裡有一個原因。普西芬妮並沒有被釋放。
11:55
She escaped逃脫, and returns回報 every一切 spring彈簧
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她只是逃跑,然後每年春天回來
11:59
to take revenge復仇 on Hades哈迪斯,
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向哈德斯報仇
12:01
with her Spring彈簧 powers權力.
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用她的春天的能量。
12:03
She cools冷卻 his domain with Spring彈簧 air空氣,
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她用春風給她的領地降溫
12:08
venting通風 heat up to the surface表面, creating創建 summer夏季.
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讓熱氣到達表面,形成夏天。
12:12
That accounts賬戶 for the same相同 phenomena現象 as the original原版的 myth神話.
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這裡用原始的神話解釋了每年同樣的現象。
12:16
It's equally一樣 testable可測試.
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我們可以測試其正確與否
12:19
Yet然而 what it asserts斷言 about reality現實
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但是神話聲稱的內容
12:22
is, in many許多 ways方法, the opposite對面.
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在真實世界中很多方面都是相反的。
12:24
And that is possible可能 because
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那是因為
12:26
the details細節 of the original原版的 myth神話
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神話的細節
12:29
are unrelated無關 to seasons季節,
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跟季節無關
12:31
except via通過 the myth神話 itself本身.
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除了透過神話讓兩者產生聯繫以外
12:35
This easy簡單 variability變化性
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這種明顯與現實有差異的
12:38
is the sign標誌 of a bad explanation說明,
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就是一個不良的解釋
12:42
because, without a functional實用 reason原因 to prefer比較喜歡
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因為,沒有一個合理的推理過程
12:46
one of countless無數 variants變種,
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在這些版本中,
12:51
advocating主張 one of them, in preference偏愛 to the others其他,
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支持某一個理由,只因為它比其他的好
12:53
is irrational不合理的.
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是不理性的。
12:55
So, for the essence本質 of what
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因此,什麽舉動
12:57
makes品牌 the difference區別 to enable啟用 progress進展,
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能引起科學的大步進展
13:00
seek尋求 good explanations說明,
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就是尋找一個好的解釋,
13:02
the ones那些 that can't be easily容易 varied多變,
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這個解釋不是很容易就改變的,
13:05
while still explaining說明 the phenomena現象.
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在解釋各種現象的同時。
13:10
Now, our current當前 explanation說明 of seasons季節
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現在,我們當今對季節的解釋
13:13
is that the Earth's地球 axis is tilted like that,
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是地軸像這樣偏轉,
13:17
so each hemisphere半球 tilts傾斜 toward the sun太陽 for half the year,
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兩個半球輪流在半年中傾斜面向太陽
13:20
and away for the other half.
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並且輪流遠離太陽
13:23
Better put that up.
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最好提一下。
13:25
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
13:26
That's a good explanation說明: hard to vary變化,
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這就是一個好的解釋:與現實相符,很難改變,
13:31
because every一切 detail詳情 plays播放 a functional實用 role角色.
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因為每一個細節都扮演了有效的角色。
13:34
For instance, we know, independently獨立地 of seasons季節,
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比如,我們知道,季節分明,
13:37
that surfaces tilted away
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地球表面遠離
13:39
from radiant輻射的 heat are heated加熱 less,
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輻射熱導致熱量減少,
13:42
and that a spinning紡織 sphere領域, in space空間,
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地球在空間中旋轉,
13:45
points in a constant不變 direction方向.
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向著不變的方向。
13:48
And the tilt傾斜 also explains說明
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而傾斜也能解釋
13:51
the sun's太陽 angle角度 of elevation海拔 at different不同 times of year,
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爲什麽在同一年中太陽高度是不同的仰角
13:55
and predicts預測 that the seasons季節
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這也預測了
13:57
will be out of phase in the two hemispheres半球.
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兩個半球的季節會是不同的。
14:00
If they'd他們會 been observed觀察到的 in phase,
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這種理論在當時看來,
14:02
the theory理論 would have been refuted駁斥.
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肯定是會被駁斥的。
14:04
But now, the fact事實 that it's also a good explanation說明,
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但是現在,事實就是很好的解釋,
14:09
hard to vary變化, makes品牌 the crucial關鍵 difference區別.
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很難推翻,與之前的解釋完全不同。
14:14
If the ancient Greeks希臘人 had found發現 out
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如果古希臘人發現
14:16
about seasons季節 in Australia澳大利亞,
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澳洲的季節與他們不同,
14:19
they could have easily容易 varied多變 their myth神話
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他們可以很簡單的修正他們的神話
14:21
to predict預測 that.
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去預測並解釋它。
14:23
For instance, when Demeter得墨忒耳 is upset煩亂,
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比如,當迪米特傷心了,
14:25
she banishes攆走 heat from her vicinity附近,
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她從附近釋放了熱
14:28
into the other hemisphere半球, where it makes品牌 summer夏季.
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給另一個半球,這就形成了夏天。
14:31
So, being存在 proved證實 wrong錯誤 by observation意見,
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即使,這些透過觀察都證明了是錯誤的,
14:34
and changing改變 their theory理論 accordingly於是,
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修正了他們的理論,
14:36
still wouldn't不會 have got the ancient Greeks希臘人
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這也並不能讓古希臘人
14:39
one jot小額 closer接近 to understanding理解 seasons季節,
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完全明白季節,
14:42
because their explanation說明 was bad: easy簡單 to vary變化.
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因為他們的解釋是不好的:太容易被現實情況推翻
14:45
And it's only when an explanation說明 is good
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只有那些可禁得起考驗的
14:48
that it even matters事項 whether是否 it's testable可測試.
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才是好的解釋
14:50
If the axis-tilt軸傾斜 theory理論 had been refuted駁斥,
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如果地軸傾斜理論被推翻了,
14:53
its defenders捍衛者 would have had nowhere無處 to go.
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那些異議者不可能在理論上站的住腳
14:55
No easily容易 implemented實施 change更改
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因為不可能有任何的改變
14:58
could make that tilt傾斜
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就能讓傾斜的地軸
15:00
cause原因 the same相同 seasons季節 in both hemispheres半球.
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導致同時在南北半球上有同樣的季節。
15:05
The search搜索 for hard-to-vary難以改變 explanations說明
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追尋符合現實、難以憾動的解釋
15:08
is the origin起源 of all progress進展.
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就是所有進步的源頭。
15:11
It's the basic基本 regulating調節 principle原理
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這就是啟蒙運動
15:14
of the Enlightenment啟示.
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最基本的原則
15:16
So, in science科學, two false approaches方法 blight枯萎病 progress進展.
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所以,在科學領域,有兩個錯誤的方法將會抑制進步。
15:20
One is well known已知: untestable不可測 theories理論.
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一個大家都知道的是:無法驗證的理論。
15:23
But the more important重要 one is explanationlessexplanationless theories理論.
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但是另一個更重要的是:沒法解釋的理論。
15:27
Whenever每當 you're told that some existing現有 statistical統計 trend趨勢 will continue繼續,
299
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每當你聽到一些現存的統計趨勢不斷持續,
15:31
but you aren't given特定 a hard-to-vary難以改變 account帳戶
300
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但是他們並不能給你任何難以撼動的說法
15:34
of what causes原因 that trend趨勢,
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解釋什麽因素導致了這些趨勢,
15:37
you're being存在 told a wizard巫師 did it.
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你就好像被人隨便虎爛
15:39
When you are told that carrots蘿蔔 have human人的 rights權利
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當你被告知胡蘿蔔也享有人權
15:42
because they share分享 half our genes基因 --
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因為他們與人共享一半的基因
15:44
but not how gene基因 percentages百分比 confer授予 rights權利 -- wizard巫師.
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但這不是依照基因百分比授予的權利—而是瞎扯
15:50
When someone有人 announces宣布 that the nature-nurture自然培育 debate辯論
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當有些人聲稱天性與教養的辯論
15:54
has been settled安定 because there is evidence證據
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已經有了結果因為有證據表明
15:56
that a given特定 percentage百分比 of our
308
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我們個人的政治觀點是
15:58
political政治 opinions意見 are genetically基因 inherited遺傳,
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來源於基因本身,
16:02
but they don't explain說明 how genes基因 cause原因 opinions意見,
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但是他們沒有解釋基因怎麼影響觀點,
16:06
they've他們已經 settled安定 nothing. They are saying that our
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他們什麽都沒解決。他們說:
16:08
opinions意見 are caused造成 by wizards奇才,
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我們的觀點來源於神秘的力量,
16:10
and presumably想必 so are their own擁有.
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其實是他們自己瞎編的。
16:13
That the truth真相 consists of
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真理其實就是
16:16
hard to vary變化 assertions斷言 about reality現實
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符合現實又難以撼動的解釋或理論
16:20
is the most important重要 fact事實
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這是最重要的事實
16:23
about the physical物理 world世界.
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對於這個現實世界。
16:25
It's a fact事實 that is, itself本身, unseen看不見,
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事實就是雖然看不見,
16:28
yet然而 impossible不可能 to vary變化. Thank you.
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但是很難改變。謝謝。
16:32
(Applause掌聲)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by LI CHENXI
Reviewed by Pei-Jan Hung

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Deutsch - Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity.

Why you should listen

David Deutsch will force you to reconsider your place in the world. This legendary Oxford physicist is the leading proponent of the multiverse (or "many worlds") interpretation of quantum theory -- the idea that our universe is constantly spawning countless numbers of parallel worlds.

In his own words: "Everything in our universe -- including you and me, every atom and every galaxy -- has counterparts in these other universes." If that doesn't alter your consciousness, then the other implications he's derived from his study of subatomic physics -- including the possibility of time travel -- just might.

In The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch tied together quantum mechanics, evolution, a rationalist approach to knowledge, and a theory of computation based on the work of Alan Turing. "Our best theories are not only truer than common sense, they make more sense than common sense,"Deutsch wrote, and he continues to explore the most mind-bending aspects of particle physics.

In 2008, he became a member of the Royal Society of London.
 

More profile about the speaker
David Deutsch | Speaker | TED.com