ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...

Why you should listen

With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.

Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.

Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”

More profile about the speaker
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com
TED2017

Stewart Brand and Chris Anderson: Mammoths resurrected, geoengineering and other thoughts from a futurist

斯图尔特·布兰德 和 克里斯•安德森: 从未来主义者的观点看猛犸象的复活、地球工程,及其他想法分享

Filmed:
1,163,242 views

斯图尔特·布兰德(Stewart Brand)是一个未来主义者和反文化主义者。他有着卓绝的远见和思想。在与TED负责人克里斯•安德森(Chris Anderson)的谈话中……布兰德所谈内容几乎涵盖了所有方面,包括人性,复活的猛犸象,地球工程,动物放生以及关于有组织的科学怀疑主义——另外,他还讲述了一段 60 年代,在旧金山屋顶上,他进入“迷幻之旅”而带来的启发愿景。“故事告诉我们,我们人类将会面临下一次陨石撞击灾难,”布兰德说,但是“我们有能力让事情变得更好。”
- Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bio - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: OK, Stewart斯图尔特,
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克里斯•安德森:好的,斯图尔德,
在60年代,我想那是68年,
你创立了这本杂志。
00:14
in the '60s, you -- I think it was '68 --
you founded成立 this magazine杂志.
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00:19
Stewart斯图尔特 Brand: Bravo布拉沃!
It's the original原版的 one.
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斯图尔特·布兰德:
太棒了!这是原版。
现在很难找到了。
00:21
That's hard to find.
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00:23
CACA: Right. Issue问题 One, right?
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克:是的。这是第一版,对吧?
斯:是的。
00:24
SBSB: Mm毫米 hmm.
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克:为什么它产生了那么大影响力?
00:25
CACA: Why did that make so much impact碰撞?
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00:29
SBSB: Counterculture反传统 was the main主要 event事件
that I was part部分 of at the time,
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斯:我参与了当时的
反主流文化运动,
00:33
and it was made制作 up
of hippies嬉皮士 and New Left.
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它是由嬉皮士与新左翼分子组成。
这些人大多与我年纪相仿,
00:37
That was sort分类 of my contemporaries同时代,
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我比他们稍年长一些。
00:39
the people I was just slightly older旧的 than.
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00:42
And my mode模式 is to look
at where the interesting有趣 flow is
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我的方法是观察有趣的趋势走向,
00:47
and then look in the other direction方向.
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然后再从其他方向观察它。
00:49
CACA: (Laughs)
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(笑声)
00:51
SBSB: Partly部分地, I was trained熟练 to do that
as an army军队 officer,
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斯:部分原因来自
我在当军队长官时所受的训练。
00:53
but partly部分地, it's just a cheap低廉 heuristic启发式
to find originalities创意:
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同时以一种简单经济的启发方式,
来寻找独创性:
00:56
don't look where everybody每个人
else其他 is looking,
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别与其他人在相同视角看问题,
00:59
look the opposite对面 way.
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要从看另外一面。
01:00
So the deal合同 with counterculture反传统 is,
the hippies嬉皮士 were very romantic浪漫
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所以,当时反主流文化是,
嬉皮士们很浪漫,
01:04
and kind of against反对 technology技术,
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并且有点反对现代科技,
01:06
except very good LSDLSD from SandozSandoz,
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除了很棒的山度士牌致幻剂,
01:09
and the New Left was against反对 technology技术
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而新左翼分子抵制高科技,
01:12
because they thought
it was a power功率 device设备.
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因为在那时科技被视为权利的机器。
01:15
Computers电脑 were: do not spindle纺锤,
fold, or mutilate毁伤.
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计算机甚至被看作是反人性的。
01:19
Fight斗争 that.
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他们为此抗争。
01:20
And so, the Whole整个 Earth地球 Catalog目录
was kind of a counter-counterculture反反 thing
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所以,《全球目录》算是
反-反主流文化的东西,
01:25
in the sense that I bought
Buckminster巴克明斯特 Fuller's富勒 idea理念
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在某种意义上,我借鉴了
巴克敏斯特·富勒的观点:
01:30
that tools工具 of are of the essence本质.
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工具是至关重要的。
01:33
Science科学 and engineers工程师 basically基本上
define确定 the world世界 in interesting有趣 ways方法.
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科学和工程师们
用有趣的方式来定义世界。
01:38
If all the politicians政治家
disappeared消失 one week,
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假设所以的政客在一周内都消失了,
01:41
it would be ... a nuisance滋扰.
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那将会是一件麻烦事。
01:43
But if all the scientists科学家们
and engineers工程师 disappeared消失 one week,
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但如果所有科学家和工程师
在一周内消失了,
01:46
it would be way more than a nuisance滋扰.
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那就不止是一件麻烦了。
01:48
CACA: We still believe that, I think.
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克:我认为大家依然认同这个观点。
01:51
SBSB: So focus焦点 on that.
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斯:所以我们把焦点放在那上面。
01:54
And then the New Left was talking
about power功率 to the people.
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后来,新左翼主张权利属于人民。
01:59
And people like Steve史蒂夫 Jobs工作
and Steve史蒂夫 Wozniak沃兹尼亚克
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像史蒂芬·乔布斯
和史蒂芬·沃兹尼亚克这些人,
02:02
cut that and just said, power功率 to people,
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截取为:让人民拥有权利,
工具能产生实际的效果。
02:06
tools工具 that actually其实 work.
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02:08
And so, where Fuller富勒 was saying
don't try to change更改 human人的 nature性质,
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所以,就像富勒说的
不要尝试去改变人性,
02:13
people have been trying for a long time
and it does not even bend弯曲,
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人们一直在尝试改变它,
可是并没起作用,
02:17
but you can change更改 tools工具 very easily容易.
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但是你可以轻易地改造工具。
02:19
So the efficient高效 thing to do
if you want to make the world世界 better
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所以如果你想让世界变得更好,
最有效的办法就是,
02:22
is not try to make people behave表现
differently不同 like the New Left was,
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不要像新左翼分子那样
做些另类的行为,
02:25
but just give them tools工具
that go in the right direction方向.
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而应该给予人们以正确的工具。
02:28
That was the Whole整个 Earth地球 Catalog目录.
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这就是《全球目录》在探讨的。
02:30
CACA: And Stewart斯图尔特, the central中央 image图片 --
this is one of the first images图片,
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克:斯图尔德,中间的那幅图,
02:34
the first time people had seen看到
Earth地球 from outer space空间.
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是人类第一次从外太空
看到的地球的影像。
02:36
That had an impact碰撞, too.
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这张图也带来了巨大的影响。
02:38
SBSB: It was kind of a chance机会
that in the spring弹簧 of '66,
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斯:那是 1966 年春天的一次巧合,
02:42
thanks谢谢 to an LSDLSD experience经验
on a rooftop屋顶 in San Francisco弗朗西斯科,
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我在旧金山屋顶,
在致幻剂的作用下,
02:45
I got thinking思维 about, again,
something that Fuller富勒 talked about,
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我再一次思考起富勒的曾说过话,
02:48
that a lot of people assume承担
that the Earth地球 is flat平面
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许多人都假设地球是平的,
02:50
and kind of infinite无穷
in terms条款 of its resources资源,
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而且拥有无限的资源,
02:53
but once一旦 you really grasp把握
that it's a sphere领域
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一旦当你发现其实它是一个球体,
02:55
and that there's only so much of it,
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而且资源有限,
02:57
then you start开始 husbanding更为驾轻就熟 your resources资源
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你就会开始节约使用你的资源,
03:00
and thinking思维 about it as a finite有限 system系统.
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并把它看作是一个有限的系统。
03:02
"Spaceship飞船 Earth地球" was his metaphor隐喻.
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富勒把它比喻为“地球号飞船”。
03:04
And I wanted that to be the case案件,
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我也希望是这样的,
03:07
but on LSDLSD I was getting得到 higher更高 and higher更高
on my hundred micrograms微克
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但我在一百毫克致幻剂的作用下,
在旧金山的一个屋顶上越来越嗨,
03:11
on the roof屋顶 of San Francisco弗朗西斯科,
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03:14
and noticed注意到 that the downtown市中心 buildings房屋
which哪一个 were right in front面前 of me
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我注意到我眼前市中心的建筑,
03:19
were not all parallel平行,
they were sort分类 of fanned煽动 out like this.
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不是平行的,
而是呈扇形散开状,就像这样。
03:22
And that's because
they are on a curved弯曲 surface表面.
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那是因为它们
坐落在一个弧形的平面上。
03:26
And if I were even higher更高,
I would see that even more clearly明确地,
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如果我能站得更高,
就能看的更清晰。
再高一点,更加清晰,
03:29
higher更高 than that, more clearly明确地 still,
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足够高了之后,它会合拢,
03:31
higher更高 enough足够, and it would close,
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然后你就可以从外太空
看到圆形的地球了。
03:32
and you would get
the circle of Earth地球 from space空间.
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然后我就想,你知道,
我们已经探索外太空十年了……
03:35
And I thought, you know, we've我们已经 been
in space空间 for 10 years年份 --
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那时是 1966 年……
03:38
at that time, this is '66 --
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卫星的镜头
从来没有往回看过。
03:40
and the cameras相机 had never looked看着 back.
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03:42
They'd他们会 always been looking out
or looking at just parts部分 of the Earth地球.
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它们一直对着外太空
或者只看一部分的地球。
03:45
And so I said, why haven't没有 we seen看到
a photograph照片 of the whole整个 Earth地球 yet然而?
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所以我说,为什么我们依旧
没有看过地球全景的照片呢?
03:50
And it went around and NASANASA got it
and senators参议员, secretaries秘书 got it,
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后来这话传到了美国航天局,
参议员和部长们那里,
03:53
and various各个 people
in the Politburo政治局 got it,
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在政治局的人们也听说了,
03:55
and it went around and around.
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接着传到更多的人耳朵里。
03:57
And within two and a half years年份,
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在两年半的时间里,
03:58
about the time the Whole整个 Earth地球
Catalog目录 came来了 out,
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差不多在《全球目录》出版的时候,
04:01
these images图片 started开始 to appear出现,
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这些图片出现了,
04:02
and indeed确实, they did transform转变 everything.
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的确,它们改变了一切。
04:04
And my idea理念 of hacking黑客 civilization文明
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在我看来,
一个文明得以发展的秘诀是:
04:09
is that you try to do something
lazy and ingenious巧妙
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你无心而又巧妙的做一些事情,
04:13
and just sort分类 of trick the situation情况.
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这恰好改变了现状。
04:16
So all of these photographs照片
that you see --
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所以你现在看到的这些照片,
04:18
and then the march游行 for science科学 last week,
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还有上周的科学游行抗议,
04:20
they were carrying携带 these
Whole整个 Earth地球 banners横幅 and so on --
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他们带着《全球目录》的横幅等——
04:23
I did that with no work.
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我毫不费力就做到了。
04:26
I sold出售 those buttons纽扣 for 25 cents apiece一块.
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那些图章,我一个卖 25 美分。
04:28
So, you know, tweaking扭捏 the system系统
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所以,你知道,小幅度的调整系统,
04:32
is, I think, not only the most efficient高效
way to make the system系统 go
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在我看来,让系统以有趣的方式运作,
不仅是最有效的方式,
04:36
in interesting有趣 ways方法,
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04:37
but in some ways方法, the safest最安全 way,
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某个程度上来说,这是最安全的方式。
04:39
because when you try to horse
the whole整个 system系统 around in a big way,
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因为当你想大刀阔斧的去改变它,
那你会陷入大麻烦,
04:42
you can get into big
horsing-around胡闹-周边 problems问题,
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04:45
but if you tweak it,
it will adjust调整 to the tweak.
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但如果你只是做微调,
系统本身就会自我调整。
04:48
CACA: So since以来 then,
among其中 many许多 other things,
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所以自那以后,在其他领域
04:50
you've been regarded认为 as a leading领导 voice语音
in the environmental环境的 movement运动,
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克:你也被认为是环境运动的领导者,
但你又是一个反主流文化者,
04:53
but you are also a counterculturalistcounterculturalist,
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最近,你受到了很多……
04:55
and recently最近, you've been
taking服用 on a lot of,
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04:59
well, you've been declaring声明
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好吧,你一直在声明的观点
05:00
what a lot of environmentalists环保主义者
almost几乎 believe are heresies异端邪说.
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被很多环保主义者认为是邪门歪教。
我想聊聊其中几个。
05:03
I kind of want to explore探索
a couple一对 of those.
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我的意思是,跟我说说这幅图。
05:05
I mean, tell me about this image图片 here.
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05:08
SBSB: Ha-ha哈哈!
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斯:哈哈!
05:10
That's a National国民 Geographic地理 image图片
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这是国家地理杂志的图片,
05:12
of what is called the mammoth长毛象 steppe草原,
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叫猛犸象大草原,
05:16
what the far north, the sub-Arctic亚北极
and Arctic北极 region地区, used to look like.
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在最北边,亚北极圈和北极圈地区,
以前看上去是这样的。
05:20
In fact事实, the whole整个 world世界
used to look like that.
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事实上,全世界曾经就是这个样子的。
05:24
What we find in South Africa非洲
and the Serengeti塞伦盖蒂 now,
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我们目前已经在南非
和塞伦盖蒂平原发现的
05:27
lots of big animals动物,
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那些大型动物,
05:29
was the case案件 in this part部分 of Canada加拿大,
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也曾出现在在加拿大这个地区,
05:32
throughout始终 the US, throughout始终 Eurasia欧亚大陆,
throughout始终 the world世界.
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遍及美国,亚欧大陆,乃至全球。
05:35
This was the norm规范
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这就是以前的常态,
05:37
and can be again.
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也可能再次变成这样。
05:40
So in a sense,
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所以某种意义上说,
我目前的长期目标
不仅是把那些动物带回来,
05:42
my long-term长期 goal目标 at this point
is to not only bring带来 back those animals动物
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05:47
and the grassland草原 they made制作,
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还有曾经形成的草原。
05:50
which哪一个 could be a climate气候
stabilization稳定 system系统 over the long run,
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长远来看,草原可能会
成为一个气候稳定系统。
05:55
but even the mammoths猛犸象
there in the background背景
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还有图片背景中的猛犸象,
05:57
that are part部分 of the story故事.
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也是目标的一部分。
05:59
And I think that's probably大概
a 200-year-年 goal目标.
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我认为,这个目标
可能需要200年来实现。
06:04
Maybe in 100, by the end结束 of this century世纪,
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也许100年,在这个世纪末,
06:06
we should be able能够 to dial拨号 down
the extinction灭绝 rate
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那时,我们就可以降低灭绝率,
06:09
to sort分类 of what it's been
in the background背景.
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变回图片中的样子。
想要恢复到过去的生物数量,
06:11
Bringing back this amount
of bio-abundance生物丰度 will take longer,
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将会花费更长的时间,
但是这么做值得。
06:14
but it's worth价值 doing.
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克:我们继续谈谈猛犸象。
06:15
CACA: We'll come back to the mammoths猛犸象,
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06:17
but explain说明 how we
should think of extinctions灭绝.
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为我们解释一下
我们如何看待灭绝。
06:20
Obviously明显, one of the huge巨大
concerns关注 right now
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显然,目前最大关注点之一,
06:24
is that extinction灭绝 is happening事件
at a faster更快 rate than ever in history历史.
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是现今生物灭绝的速度
要比以往任何时期都快。
06:28
That's the meme米姆 that's out there.
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这个是外界流传的一种看法。
06:31
How should we think of it?
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我们该如何看待它呢?
06:33
SBSB: The story故事 that's out there
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斯:这个看法说的是,
06:34
is that we're in the middle中间
of the Sixth第六 Extinction消光
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我们正处于第六次灭绝的中期,
06:37
or maybe in the beginning开始
of the Sixth第六 Extinction消光.
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或是第六次灭绝的初期。
06:39
Because we're in
the de-extinction去灭绝 business商业,
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因为我们正在进行反灭绝生意
06:42
the preventing-extinction防止灭绝 business商业
with Revive复活 &amp功放; Restore恢复,
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以及防止生物灭绝的工作,
于是我们开始研究
灭绝到底是怎么回事。
06:45
we started开始 looking at what's actually其实
going on with extinction灭绝.
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结果显示,数据复杂而混乱,
06:48
And it turns out, there's a very confused困惑
set of data数据 out there
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06:52
which哪一个 gets得到 oversimplified过于简单
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简单化了说,我们即将变成……
06:55
into the narrative叙述 of we're becoming变得 ...
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06:58
Here are five mass extinctions灭绝 that are
indicated指示 by the yellow黄色 triangles三角形,
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这里,黄色的三角
标记出了五次大规模的灭绝。
07:03
and we're now next下一个.
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我们现在正面临下一次大灭绝。
07:06
The last one there on the far right
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图片最右侧,是上一次大灭绝,
07:08
was the meteor流星 that struck来袭
66 million百万 years年份 ago
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6600 万年前由于陨石撞击地球
07:11
and did in the dinosaurs恐龙.
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造成了恐龙的灭亡。
外界盛传的说法是,
我们将会面临下一次陨石撞击灾难。
07:14
And the story故事 is, we're the next下一个 meteor流星.
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07:17
Well, here's这里的 the deal合同.
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好吧,事情是这样。
07:18
I wound伤口 up researching研究 this
for a paper I wrote,
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我曾经写论文时查到这样的信息,
07:21
that a mass extinction灭绝 is when
75 percent百分 of all the species种类
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大灭绝指的是当 75% 的物种
从地球上消失。
07:27
in the world世界 go extinct绝种.
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07:31
Well, there's on the order订购
of five-and-a-half-million五和半百万 species种类,
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在 550 万个种类里面,
07:34
of which哪一个 we've我们已经 identified确定
one and a half million百万.
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已知物种有 150 万种。
每年新发现物种为 1.4 万种。
07:36
Another另一个 14,000 are being存在
identified确定 every一切 year.
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许多生物变化
还在持续不断地发生。
07:39
There's a lot of biology生物学
going on out there.
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自从 1500 年,
07:42
Since以来 1500,
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大约 500 种已经灭绝,
07:45
about 500 species种类 have gone走了 extinct绝种,
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所以当你看到
“大灭绝”这个词的时候
07:49
and you'll你会 see the term术语 "mass extinction灭绝"
kind of used in strange奇怪 ways方法.
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可能会感到奇怪。
07:53
So there was, about a year and a half ago,
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在大概一年半前,
纽约时报头条上,
卡尔·齐默写的一篇文章,
07:55
a front-page首页 story故事 by Carl卡尔 Zimmer齐默
in the New York纽约 Times,
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“学术研究表明,
海洋中存在大规模灭绝”
07:58
"Mass Extinction消光 in the Oceans海洋,
Broad广阔 Studies学习 Show显示."
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08:02
And then you read into the article文章,
and it mentions提到 that since以来 1500,
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文章内容提到:从 1500 年开始,
08:06
15 species种类 -- one, five --
have gone走了 extinct绝种 in the oceans海洋,
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15 个物种,消失在海洋中,
随便说一下,近 50 年中没发生过。
08:11
and, oh, by the way,
none没有 in the last 50 years年份.
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08:14
And you read further进一步
into the story故事, and it's saying,
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继续往下读,文章上写道:
可怕的事情正在发生,
08:16
the horrifying可怕的 thing that's going on
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渔民过度捕捞野生鱼类,
08:18
is that the fisheries渔业
are so overfishing过度捕捞 the wild野生 fishes鱼类,
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导致海洋里鱼类数量减少了 38%。
08:22
that it is taking服用 down
the fish populations人群 in the oceans海洋
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08:25
by 38 percent百分.
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这是很严重的事。
08:27
That's the serious严重 thing.
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但是这些鱼类不一定会灭绝。
08:29
None没有 of those species种类
are probably大概 going to go extinct绝种.
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所以,写标题的作者
08:32
So you've just put, that headline标题 writer作家
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在文章上方写了一个
容易引起恐慌的标题,
08:36
put a panic恐慌 button按键
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08:38
on the top最佳 of the story故事.
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用来吸引读者。
08:40
It's clickbaitclickbait kind of stuff东东,
175
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08:41
but it's basically基本上 saying,
"Oh my God, start开始 panicking恐慌,
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但是这标题实际在传达:
“我的天,开始恐慌吧,
我们即将失去所有的海洋生物。”
08:45
we're going to lose失去
all the species种类 in the oceans海洋."
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根本没有这样的事会发生。
08:47
Nothing like that is in prospect展望.
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08:50
And in fact事实, what I then started开始
looking into in a little more detail详情,
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事实上,当我开始
读更多细节的时候,
濒危物种红色名录上显示,
08:55
the Red List名单 shows节目 about 23,000 species种类
that are considered考虑 threatened受威胁
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大约 2.3 万物种面临
相同或不同程度的威胁,
08:59
at one level水平 or another另一个,
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09:00
coming未来 from the International国际 Union联盟
for the Conservation保护 of Nature性质, the IUCN世界自然保护联盟.
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数据资料来源于
国际自然保护联盟(IUCN)
09:04
And Nature性质 Magazine杂志 had a piece
surveying测量学 the loss失利 of wildlife野生动物,
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《自然》杂志也对野生动物灭绝做了调查,
杂志中写道:
09:09
and it said,
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“如果所有 2.3 万物种在下个世纪
09:11
"If all of those 23,000 went extinct绝种
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09:14
in the next下一个 century世纪 or so,
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或者以后灭绝,
09:16
and that rate of extinction灭绝 carried携带的 on
for more centuries百年 and millennia千年,
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灭绝速率还能持续几世纪、几千年,
那么我们就处于第六次大灭绝初期。”
09:21
then we might威力 be at the beginning开始
of a sixth第六 extinction灭绝.
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这有点过分夸张。
09:25
So the exaggeration夸张 is way out of hand.
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但是环境主义者经常夸大事实。
09:27
But environmentalists环保主义者 always exaggerate夸大.
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这是一个问题。
09:29
That's a problem问题.
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克:我认为,他们可能觉得
有义务这么做。
09:31
CACA: I mean, they probably大概 feel
a moral道德 responsibility责任 to,
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因为他们那么在意
他们所看到的问题,
09:34
because they care关心 so much about
the thing that they are looking at,
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如果不造成恐慌,
无法引起人们的重视。
09:37
and unless除非 you bang the drum for it,
maybe no one listens监听.
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每次人们都说
这样道德,那样道德,
09:40
SBSB: Every一切 time somebody says
moral道德 this or moral道德 that --
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这是“道德危机”,“防范原则”……
09:43
"moral道德 hazard冒险,"
"precautionary预防 principle原理" --
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这些话基本是人们想要
拒绝什么的时候说的。
09:46
these are terms条款 that are used
to basically基本上 say no to things.
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(笑)
09:51
CACA: So the problem问题 isn't so much
fish extinction灭绝, animal动物 extinction灭绝,
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克:所以问题并不是
鱼类灭绝,动物灭绝,
09:55
it's fish flourishing芊芊, animal动物 flourishing芊芊,
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而是鱼类和和动物数量增加,
是因为我们在某些程度上
促进它们生长吗?
09:58
that we're crowding拥挤 them to some extent程度?
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斯:是的,我们促进它们生长,
同时造成了损失。
10:00
SBSB: Yeah, and I think we are crowding拥挤,
and there is losses损失 going on.
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主要损失是农业生产造成的,
10:04
The major重大的 losses损失
are caused造成 by agriculture农业,
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所有可以提生农业生产,
10:07
and so anything that improves提高 agriculture农业
and basically基本上 makes品牌 it more condensed冷凝,
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带来高密度,以及高产量的东西,
10:13
more highly高度 productive生产的,
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1702
10:15
including包含 GMOs转基因生物, please,
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1979
包括转基因产物,拜托,
10:17
but even if you want to do
vertical垂直 farms农场 in town,
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即使你想在城镇里做垂直农场,
包括室内农场,
10:19
including包含 inside farms农场,
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我们学会在地下室种大麻的方法,
10:21
all the things that have been learned学到了
about how to grow增长 pot in basements地下室,
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现在被运用于
在容器中种植蔬菜。
10:24
is now being存在 applied应用的 to growing生长
vegetables蔬菜 inside containers集装箱 --
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这很好,都是很好的事,
10:27
that's great, that's all good stuff东东,
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因为土地节约是我们能
为自然做的最主要的事。
10:29
because land土地 sparing保守的 is the main主要 thing
we can do for nature性质.
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人们搬到城市是很好。
10:34
People moving移动 to cities城市 is good.
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减少农业对风景的破坏很好。
10:36
Making制造 agriculture农业 less
of a destruction毁坏 of the landscape景观 is good.
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10:41
CACA: There people talking about
bringing使 back species种类, rewilding野化 ...
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克:人们讨论关于让动物回归野性……
好的,首先,动物野生化:
这些家伙有什么故事?
10:44
Well, first of all, rewilding野化 species种类:
What's the story故事 with these guys?
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斯:好,哈哈。
10:47
SBSB: Ha-ha哈哈! Wolves.
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狼。
欧洲,联系到刚刚提到的观点,
10:50
Europe欧洲, connecting to the previous以前 point,
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我们现在大概处于农耕顶峰时期。
10:53
we're now at probably大概 peak farmland农田,
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顺便一提,在人口方面,
10:56
and, by the way, in terms条款 of population人口,
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儿童占比已经达到峰值。
10:57
we are already已经
at peak children孩子 being存在 alive.
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从此以后,儿童会越来越少。
11:00
Henceforth今后, there will be
fewer and fewer children孩子.
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人口将最后一次翻倍,
11:03
We are in the last doubling加倍
of human人的 population人口,
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可能会达到 90 亿,或 95 亿,
11:06
and it will get to nine,
maybe nine and a half billion十亿,
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11:10
and then start开始 not just leveling练级 off,
but probably大概 going down.
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然后人口走势趋于平稳,
更加可能呈下滑趋势。
同样地,农地占比已经到达峰值,
11:14
Likewise同样, farmland农田 has now peaked见顶,
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欧洲处理这类问题其中一种方法是,
11:17
and one of the ways方法
that plays播放 out in Europe欧洲
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11:21
is there's a lot
of abandoned farmland农田 now,
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在许多废弃的农田上重新造林。
11:24
which哪一个 immediately立即 reforestsreforests.
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欧洲不做野生动物生态走廊。
11:26
They don't do wildlife野生动物
corridors走廊 in Europe欧洲.
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他们不需要做,
因为许多农田是相连的,
11:28
They don't need to, because
so many许多 of these farms农场 are connected连接的
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在这些农场上造林,
便直接形成了生态走廊,
11:32
that they've他们已经 made制作
reforested重新造林 wildlife野生动物 corridors走廊,
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狼群就会重新回到西班牙。
11:35
that the wolves are coming未来 back,
in this case案件, to Spain西班牙.
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它们已经一路走到了荷兰。
11:38
They've他们已经 gotten得到 all the way
to the Netherlands荷兰.
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11:40
There's bears coming未来 back.
There's lynx猞猁 coming未来 back.
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熊和山猫都会回来。
还有欧洲豺。
我之前都不知道有这个物种。
11:44
There's the European欧洲的 jackal.
I had no idea理念 such这样 a thing existed存在.
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它们将从意大利
回到欧洲其他地区。
11:47
They're coming未来 back from Italy意大利
to the rest休息 of Europe欧洲.
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2567
与这里不同,
很有趣的是,这些动物都是食肉动物。
11:50
And unlike不像 here, these are all predators大鳄,
which哪一个 is kind of interesting有趣.
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欧洲人很想念它们
也很欢迎它们回来。
11:53
They are being存在 welcomed欢迎 by Europeans欧洲人.
They've他们已经 been missed错过.
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克:与我们想象的不一样的是,
当你把这些食肉动物带回来,
11:57
CACA: And counterintuitively违反直觉,
when you bring带来 back the predators大鳄,
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它们事实上会增加而不是减少
12:00
it actually其实 increases增加 rather than reduces减少
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基础生态的多样性。
12:02
the diversity多样 of the underlying底层
ecosystem生态系统 often经常.
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斯:是的,通常来说食肉动物
和大型动物……
12:04
SBSB: Yeah, generally通常 predators大鳄
and large animals动物 --
242
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大型动物和有尖牙利爪的大型动物
12:08
large animals动物 and large animals动物
with sharp尖锐 teeth and claws --
243
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12:11
are turning车削 out to be highly高度 important重要
for a really rich丰富 ecosystem生态系统.
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对一个丰富的生态系统非常重要。
克:这就谈到了你所参与的,
激动人心的野生化的项目。
12:16
CACA: Which哪一个 maybe brings带来 us to this rather
more dramatic戏剧性 rewilding野化 project项目
245
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12:20
that you've got yourself你自己 involved参与 in.
246
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为什么会有人想要把
恐怖又毛绒绒的的猛犸象带回来?
12:22
Why would someone有人 want to bring带来 back
these terrifying可怕的 woolly长毛 mammoths猛犸象?
247
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12:25
SBSB: Hmm. Asian亚洲 elephants大象
are the closest最近的 relative相对的
248
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亚洲象与猛犸象是近亲。
12:28
to the woolly长毛 mammoth长毛象,
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它们体型一样大,
基因上非常相近,
12:31
and they're about the same相同 size尺寸,
genetically基因 very close.
250
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2889
12:34
They diverged分歧 quite相当 recently最近
in evolutionary发展的 history历史.
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它们在进化史上
很近期才分化为不同物种。
相比非洲象,
亚洲象与猛犸象更为相近。
12:38
The Asian亚洲 elephants大象
are closer接近 to woolly长毛 mammoths猛犸象
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2383
12:40
than they are to African非洲人 elephants大象,
253
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1795
但猛犸象与非洲象也足够相似,
12:42
but they're close enough足够
to African非洲人 elephants大象
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它们可以成功杂交。
12:44
that they have successfully顺利 hybridized杂交.
255
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所有,我们正在
与哈佛大学的乔治·丘奇一起工作,
12:47
So we're working加工
with George乔治 Church教会 at Harvard哈佛,
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3658
12:51
who has already已经 moved移动 the genes基因
for four major重大的 traits性状
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他已经提取出
四个主要特征的基因,
12:55
from the now well-preserved保存完好, well-studied良好的研究
genome基因组 of the woolly长毛 mammoth长毛象,
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从被保存完好的,
研究充分的猛犸象基因组中,
这要感谢所谓的“事前基因分析”。
13:01
thanks谢谢 to so-called所谓
"ancient DNA脱氧核糖核酸 analysis分析."
259
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2948
13:05
And in the lab实验室, he has moved移动 those genes基因
into living活的 Asian亚洲 elephant cell细胞 lines线,
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在实验室里,他将这些基因
转移到活的亚洲象的细胞株中,
13:10
where they're taking服用 up
their proper正确 place地点 thanks谢谢 to CRISPRCRISPR.
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感谢基因编辑技术,
让这些基因找到了合适的地方。
我指的是,不用像基因工程
那样把基因注射进去。
13:14
I mean, they're not shooting射击 the genes基因 in
like you did with genetic遗传 engineering工程.
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现在有了基因编辑技术,
你基本上能编辑一个等位基因,
13:18
Now with CRISPRCRISPR you're editing编辑,
basically基本上, one allele等位基因,
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3289
并替换掉另一个等位基因。
13:21
and replacing更换 it in the place地点
of another另一个 allele等位基因.
264
789472
3320
所以,你现在基本上
可以通过亚洲象的生殖细胞
13:25
So you're now getting得到 basically基本上
Asian亚洲 elephant germline生殖系 cells细胞
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6303
来得到你想要得到的特征,
13:31
that are effectively有效 in terms条款
of the traits性状 that you're going for
266
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3850
让它们能舒适的生活在北极圈,
13:35
to be comfortable自在 in the Arctic北极,
267
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2504
然后,再把它们送到那里去。
13:38
you're getting得到 them in there.
268
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1447
所以,我们整个过程
需要一个代孕母体,
13:40
So we go through通过 the process处理
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1600
13:41
of getting得到 that through通过
a surrogate代孕 mother母亲,
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2684
一只亚洲象母体。
13:44
an Asian亚洲 elephant mother母亲.
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1543
13:46
You can get a proxy代理, as it's being存在 called
by conservation保护 biologists生物学家,
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4698
保育生物学家们称之为代理孕母,
13:50
of the woolly长毛 mammoth长毛象,
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1401
猛犸象的代理孕母
实际上是一只长毛卷鼻的亚洲象,
13:52
that is effectively有效 a hairy毛茸茸,
curly-trunked卷曲集群, Asian亚洲 elephant
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820416
5187
可以完全适应在亚北极圈的生活。
13:57
that is perfectly完美 comfortable自在
in the sub-Arctic亚北极.
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2945
14:00
Now, it's the case案件, so many许多 people say,
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828596
2091
现在的情况是,很多人说:
“好吧,你们如何把它们弄到那边去?
14:02
"Well, how are you going
to get them there?
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830711
2008
而且,亚洲象
好像不喜欢雪,对吧?”
14:04
And Asian亚洲 elephants大象,
they don't like snow, right?"
278
832743
2367
但事实是,它们喜欢雪。
14:07
Well, it turns out, they do like snow.
279
835134
1884
安大略湖动物园的亚洲象,
14:09
There's some in an Ontario安大略 zoo动物园
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837042
1540
会做比人还大的雪球。
14:10
that have made制作 snowballs雪球
bigger than people.
281
838606
2283
它们很喜欢……你知道,
用象鼻,从小雪球开始,
14:12
They just love -- you know, with a trunk树干,
you can start开始 a little thing,
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840913
3470
一点点滚成一个大雪球。
14:16
roll it and make it bigger.
283
844407
1642
然后,人们说:
14:18
And then people say,
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846749
1275
“是啊,但是22个月的妊娠期,
14:20
"Yeah, but it's 22 months个月 of gestation妊娠.
285
848048
3470
不管怎么说,
这种跨物种克隆是很复杂的。
14:25
This kind of cross-species跨物种 cloning克隆
is tricky狡猾 business商业, anyway无论如何.
286
853733
4541
你代孕的亚洲象会死吗?”
14:30
Are you going to lose失去 some of
the surrogate代孕 Asian亚洲 elephant mothers母亲?"
287
858298
3265
乔治·丘奇说:“没关系,
我们可以用人造子宫培育它们。”
14:33
And then George乔治 Church教会
says, "That's all right.
288
861587
2203
14:35
We'll do an artificial人造 uterus子宫
and grow增长 them that way."
289
863814
2568
人们又说:“是啊,可能下个世纪吧。”
14:38
Then people say, "Yeah,
next下一个 century世纪, maybe,"
290
866406
2270
14:40
except the news新闻 came来了 out
this week in Nature性质
291
868700
2254
然后《自然》这周登出一则新闻,
14:42
that there's now an artificial人造 uterus子宫
in which哪一个 they've他们已经 grown长大的 a lamb羊肉
292
870978
4323
关于用人造子宫
成功培育了一只小羊,
已经长达四周的时间了。
14:47
to four weeks.
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875325
1437
这已经是孕期的一半了。
14:48
That's halfway through通过
its gestation妊娠 period.
294
876786
2724
所以,这项技术
还在持续不断的进步。
14:52
So this stuff东东 is moving移动 right along沿.
295
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2272
14:54
CACA: But why should we
want a world世界 where --
296
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2749
克:但是,我们为什么想要世界……
想象一下世界上
有几千只硕大的长毛象,
14:57
Picture图片 a world世界 where there are
thousands数千 of these things
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885136
2719
几千只横穿西伯利亚。
14:59
thundering雷鸣的 across横过 Siberia西伯利亚.
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887879
1957
这样的世界更好吗?
15:01
Is that a better world世界?
299
889860
1274
斯:有可能。它是……
15:03
SBSB: Potentially潜在. It's --
300
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1801
(笑)
15:04
(Laughter笑声)
301
892983
1619
15:06
There's three groups, basically基本上,
working加工 on the woolly长毛 mammoth长毛象 seriously认真地:
302
894626
4995
主要有三个团体
目前在认真的研究猛犸象:
重生和还原,我们算其中之一;
15:11
Revive复活 &amp功放; Restore恢复,
we're kind of in the middle中间;
303
899645
2286
乔治·丘奇和哈佛大学实验室
研究遗传学的一群人;
15:13
George乔治 Church教会 and the group at Harvard哈佛
that are doing the genetics遗传学 in the lab实验室;
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901955
3691
还有一位了不起的老科学家齐莫夫,
15:17
and then there's an amazing惊人
old scientist科学家 named命名 Zimov兹莫夫
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905670
6157
他在西伯利亚北部工作,
15:23
who works作品 in northern北方 Siberia西伯利亚,
306
911851
4240
他的儿子尼基塔也加入进来,
15:28
and his son儿子 Nikita尼基塔,
who has bought into the system系统,
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916115
3124
15:31
and they are, Sergey谢尔盖 and Nikita尼基塔
Zimov兹莫夫 have been, for 25 years年份,
308
919263
6310
谢尔盖·齐莫夫和尼基塔·齐莫夫,
25 年来,他们一直在建造
所谓的“更新世公园”,
15:37
creating创建 what they call
"Pleistocene更新世 Park公园,"
309
925597
2407
15:40
which哪一个 is a place地点 in a really tough强硬 part部分
of Siberia西伯利亚 that is pure tundra苔原.
310
928028
4885
位于西伯利亚条件最艰苦的冻原。
15:45
And the research研究 that's been doneDONE shows节目
311
933858
2368
研究显示,
15:48
that there's probably大概 one one-hundredth第一百
of the animals动物 on the landscape景观 there
312
936250
5329
可能只有百分之一的动物
居住在那片冻原,
曾经是这样。
15:53
that there used to be.
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941603
1373
像之前的图片中,
我们看到很多动物。
15:55
Like that earlier image图片,
we saw lots of animals动物.
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943000
2456
现在几乎没有了。
15:57
Now there's almost几乎 none没有.
315
945480
1298
冻原上大部分覆盖苔藓,
还有北方针叶林。
15:59
The tundra苔原 is mostly大多 moss苔藓,
and then there's the boreal寒带 forest森林.
316
947199
3549
就是这样的,各位。
那里只有少量的动物。
16:02
And that's the way it is, folks乡亲.
There's just a few少数 animals动物 there.
317
950772
3128
所以人们带去了很多食草动物:
16:05
So they brought in
a lot of grazing放牧 animals动物:
318
953924
2146
麝牛,雅库特马,野牛,
16:08
musk ox, YakutianYakutian horses马匹,
they're bringing使 in some bison野牛,
319
956094
3105
人们现在要带更多过去,
16:11
they're bringing使 in some more now,
320
959223
1788
帮助那里恢复到
原有的动物数量。
16:13
and put them in at the density密度
that they used to be.
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3176
16:16
And grasslands草原 are made制作 by grazers食草动物.
322
964235
2992
食草动物孕育了草地。
所以那些动物就在那里吃草。
16:19
So these animals动物 are there, grazing放牧 away,
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967251
3591
还有一些其他事要做。
16:22
and they're doing a couple一对 of things.
324
970866
1856
首先,要把冻原上的苔藓
变回原有的草地,
16:24
First of all, they're turning车削 the tundra苔原,
the moss苔藓, back into grassland草原.
325
972746
3672
草地可以解决碳问题。
16:28
Grassland草地 fixes修复 carbon.
326
976442
1821
冻原,在全球变暖的时代,
会融化,释放很多二氧化碳,
16:30
Tundra苔 原, in a warming变暖 world世界, is thawing解冻
and releasing释放 a lot of carbon dioxide二氧化碳
327
978287
4810
16:35
and also methane甲烷.
328
983121
1699
还有甲烷。
所以,在仅有的 25 平方英里内,
16:36
So already已经 in their little
25 square广场 miles英里,
329
984844
2897
依然要进行气候稳定的工作。
16:39
they're doing a climate气候
stabilization稳定 thing.
330
987765
2290
还有就是,
16:42
Part部分 of that story故事, though虽然,
331
990596
2012
北方针叶林对阳光吸收力极强,
16:44
is that the boreal寒带 forest森林 is
very absorbent吸水 to sunlight阳光,
332
992632
4869
16:49
even in the winter冬季
when snow is on the ground地面.
333
997525
2595
即使在冬,
白雪覆盖的时候也一样。
而猛犸象大草原,
16:52
And the way the mammoth长毛象 steppe草原,
334
1000144
1656
在过去完全围绕着北极,
16:53
which哪一个 used to wrap all the way
around the North Pole --
335
1001824
2623
很多大陆在北极周边,
16:56
there's a lot of landmass大陆
around the North Pole --
336
1004471
2388
全部都覆盖着草原。
16:58
that was all this grassland草原.
337
1006883
2751
那时,大草原是非常壮丽的,
17:01
And the steppe草原 was magnificent华丽的,
338
1009658
2621
那可能是世界上
最高产的生物群落之一,
17:04
probably大概 one of the most productive生产的
biomes生物群落 in the world世界,
339
1012303
4306
世界上最大的生物群落。
17:08
the biggest最大 biome生物群落 in the world世界.
340
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1658
17:11
The forest森林 part部分 of it, right now,
Sergey谢尔盖 Zimov兹莫夫 and Nikita尼基塔
341
1019052
4158
关于森林的部分,
谢尔盖·齐莫夫和尼基塔·齐莫夫
开着免费得来的破军用坦克
17:15
go out with this old military军事 tank坦克
they got for nothing,
342
1023234
3242
撞倒树木。
17:18
and they knock down the trees树木.
343
1026500
1748
17:20
And that's a bore, and it's tiresome烦人的,
344
1028272
3002
那工作既烦人又无聊,
就像谢尔盖所说:
"这些树不能生产粪便(肥料)!”
17:23
and as Sergey谢尔盖 says,
"... and they make no dung!"
345
1031298
2823
但是,那些大型动物可以,
包括猛犸象。
17:26
which哪一个, by the way, these big
animals动物 do, including包含 mammoths猛犸象.
346
1034145
3709
所以猛犸象被保育生物学家
称之为保护伞物种。
17:29
So mammoths猛犸象 become成为
what conservation保护 biologists生物学家 call
347
1037878
2922
17:32
an umbrella雨伞 species种类.
348
1040824
1463
它是令人激动的动物,
就像中国的熊猫,或其他什么……
17:34
It's an exciting扣人心弦 animal动物 --
pandas大熊猫 in China中国 or wherever哪里 --
349
1042311
3662
人们对这个动物的持续喜爱
会为它们带来更好的生活,
17:37
that the excitement激动 that goes on
of making制造 life good for that animal动物
350
1045997
4327
为它们建造栖息地,
也就是一个生态系统,
17:42
is making制造 a habitat栖息地, an ecosystem生态系统,
351
1050348
2212
一大堆的动植物会受益于此,
17:44
which哪一个 is good for a whole整个 lot
of creatures生物 and plants植物,
352
1052584
2821
17:47
and it ideally理想 gets得到 to the point
of being存在 self-managing自我管理,
353
1055429
3294
理想化来说,这生态系统
最终可以自我管理,
之后,保育生物学家会退下来说:
17:50
where the conservation保护 biologists生物学家
can back off and say,
354
1058747
2587
“我们现在必须要做的
是防止有害物入侵,
17:53
"All we have to do is keep out
the destructive有害 invasivesinvasives,
355
1061358
2975
那件事就让它自己慢慢运作吧。”
17:56
and this thing can just cook厨师."
356
1064357
1640
克:所有你还梦想着,
在某一刻让更多其它物种反灭绝。
17:58
CACA: So there's many许多 other species种类
that you're dreaming做梦 of de-extinctingde 剧增
357
1066585
3801
18:02
at some point,
358
1070410
1234
18:03
but I think what I'd actually其实
like to move移动 on to
359
1071668
3016
但是我其实想要继续……
18:06
is this idea理念 you talked about
how mammoths猛犸象 might威力 help
360
1074708
3424
聊聊你说的关于猛犸象
如何有助于西伯利亚的绿化,
18:10
green绿色 Siberia西伯利亚 in a sense,
361
1078156
2406
18:12
or at least最小, I'm not talking about
tropical热带 rainforest雨林,
362
1080586
5909
或者至少,我不是指热带雨林,
18:18
but this question of greening绿化 the planet行星
you've thought about a lot.
363
1086519
3881
但在绿化的问题上,你有很多想法。
18:22
And the traditional传统 story故事 is
364
1090424
2168
传统的说法是,
18:24
that deforestation森林砍伐
is one of the most awful可怕 curses诅咒
365
1092616
6258
采伐森林,在现今时代,
是其中一个最可怕的诅咒。
18:30
of modern现代 times,
366
1098898
1573
18:32
and that it's a huge巨大 contributor贡献者
to climate气候 change更改.
367
1100495
3855
这是造成气候变化的一个原因。
18:36
And then you went and sent发送 me
this graph图形 here, or this map地图.
368
1104374
3482
你发给了我一张地图。
这是什么地图?
18:39
What is this map地图?
369
1107880
1362
18:41
SBSB: Global全球 greening绿化.
370
1109266
1408
斯:全球绿化。
当你从头条中得到一些信息时,
18:43
The thing to do with any narrative叙述
that you get from headlines新闻头条
371
1111284
4415
或是在简短的新闻报道中看到,
18:47
and from short news新闻 stories故事
372
1115723
1879
18:49
is to look for what else其他 is going on,
373
1117626
1973
你需要做的就是
去查查发生了什么其他事,
18:52
and look for what Marc渣子 Andreessen安德里森
calls电话 "narrative叙述 violation违反."
374
1120327
4594
找找马克•安德森
称之为“违背主旨”的内容。
18:57
So the narrative叙述 -- and Al Gore血块
is master of putting it out there --
375
1125416
5239
说到故事……
阿尔戈尔十分擅长于此……
他说,威胁人类文明的
气候变化很快就会到来。
19:02
is that there's this
civilization-threatening文明威胁
376
1130679
4087
19:06
climate气候 change更改 coming未来 on very rapidly急速.
377
1134790
2122
我们必须停止产出任何温室气体,
尤其是二氧化碳,
19:08
We have to cease停止 all extra额外 production生产
of greenhouse温室 gases气体, especially特别 COCO2,
378
1136936
6062
越快越好,
19:15
as soon不久 as possible可能,
379
1143022
1156
否则,我们会陷入
非常、非常大的麻烦之中。
19:16
otherwise除此以外, we're in deep, deep trouble麻烦.
380
1144202
2539
这是事实,
但这只是片面的信息,
19:18
All of that is true真正,
but it's not the whole整个 story故事,
381
1146765
2418
全部的内容
比这些片面信息更加有趣。
19:21
and the whole整个 story故事 is more interesting有趣
than these fragmentary残缺不全 stories故事.
382
1149207
3556
19:25
Plants植物 love COCO2.
383
1153548
2299
植物喜爱二氧化碳。
植物由二氧化碳
和水组成,加上日照。
19:28
What plants植物 are made制作 of is COCO2
plus water via通过 sunshine阳光.
384
1156330
3890
19:32
And so in many许多 greenhouses大棚,
industrialized工业化 greenhouses大棚,
385
1160985
4845
这和很多温室一样,
工业化温室注入二氧化碳,
19:37
they add COCO2 because the plants植物
turn that into plant matter.
386
1165854
3266
因为植物需要
将它转换为植物质。
一些用卫星和其他东西
完成的研究结果展示,
19:41
So the studies学习 have been doneDONE
with satellites卫星 and other things,
387
1169144
3030
你现在看到这幅图
是过去 33 年的状况,
19:44
and what you're seeing眼看 here is a graph图形 of,
over the last 33 years年份 or so,
388
1172198
4072
19:48
there's 14 percent百分 more
leaf action行动 going on.
389
1176294
6164
超过 14% 的叶子在工作。
那么多的生物质,
19:54
There's that much more biomass生物质.
390
1182482
1604
那么多生态学家称为
初级生产的工作在进行。
19:56
There's that much more
what ecologists生态学家 call "primary production生产."
391
1184110
3142
那么多的生命在继续,
19:59
There's that much more life happening事件,
392
1187276
1945
感谢气候变化,
20:01
thanks谢谢 to climate气候 change更改,
393
1189245
1296
感谢所有该死的煤炭厂。
20:02
thanks谢谢 to all of our goddam该死 coal煤炭 plants植物.
394
1190565
2852
20:05
So -- whoa, what's going on here?
395
1193441
2770
所以……到底发生了什么?
20:08
By the way, crop作物 production生产
goes up with this.
396
1196235
3615
顺便一说,作物生产随之增加。
20:11
This is a partial局部 counter计数器
397
1199874
4278
这是二氧化碳增长的部分坏处,
20:16
to the increase增加 of COCO2,
398
1204176
3260
20:19
because there's that much more plant
that is sucking吸吮 it down
399
1207460
3361
因为那么多植物在吸收二氧化碳,
20:22
into plant matter.
400
1210845
1335
并转换成植物质。
一些在衰退后会回升,
20:24
Some of that then decays衰变
and goes right back up,
401
1212204
2298
但还有一些进入根部,
20:26
but some of it is going down into roots
402
1214526
1942
然后进入土壤,留在那里。
20:28
and going into the soil and staying there.
403
1216492
2046
所以这些副作用
是我们需要记得的,
20:30
So these counter计数器 things are part部分
of what you need to bear in mind心神,
404
1218562
3863
20:34
and the deeper更深 story故事 is
405
1222449
1717
深层次来说,
20:36
that thinking思维 about and dealing交易 with
and engineering工程 climate气候
406
1224190
4857
思考并处理气候
是个非常复杂的过程。
20:41
is a pretty漂亮 complex复杂 process处理.
407
1229071
2217
20:43
It's like medicine医学.
408
1231857
1706
就像医学。
再说一次,你需要微调系统,
20:45
You're always, again,
tweaking扭捏 around with the system系统
409
1233587
3220
看看什么可以改善它。
20:48
to see what makes品牌 an improvement起色.
410
1236831
1976
然后,多次使用这种方式,
看看它会不会变得更好,
20:50
Then you do more of that,
see it's still getting得到 better,
411
1238831
2688
然后……哦!这足够了,后退半步。
20:53
then -- oop接力! -- that's enough足够,
back off half a turn.
412
1241543
2457
但可能有些人会说:
“不是所有绿植都能起相同的作用。”
20:56
CACA: But might威力 some people say,
"Not all green绿色 is created创建 equal等于."
413
1244024
3008
可能我们所做的这些
20:59
Possibly或者 what we're doing is trading贸易 off
the magnificence壮丽 of the rainforest雨林
414
1247056
3533
是以牺牲壮丽的雨林
和多样性为代价
21:02
and all that diversity多样
415
1250613
1152
为了……我不知道,
大概像绿藻层和草地之类的。
21:03
for, I don't know, green绿色 pond池塘 scum浮渣
or grass or something like that.
416
1251789
3200
某一研究结果显示,
所有形式的植物数量都在增长。
21:07
SBSB: In this particular特定 study研究, it turns out
every一切 form形成 of plant is increasing增加.
417
1255013
3648
现在,这个研究没能涵盖的是
21:10
Now, what's interestingly有趣
left out of this study研究
418
1258685
2254
海洋中到底发生了什么。
21:12
is what the hell地狱 is going on
in the oceans海洋.
419
1260963
2026
海洋中的初级生产,
21:15
Primary production生产 in the oceans海洋,
420
1263013
1818
海洋中的生物群,
大部分是微生物,
21:16
the biota生物 of the oceans海洋, mostly大多 microbial微生物,
421
1264855
3132
它们所做的大概是最重要的事。
21:20
what they're up to is probably大概
the most important重要 thing.
422
1268011
2684
它们创造了大气,
21:22
They're the ones那些
that create创建 the atmosphere大气层
423
1270719
2048
21:24
that we're happily高高兴兴 breathing呼吸,
424
1272791
1807
让我们可以尽情的呼吸,
21:26
and they're not part部分 of this study研究.
425
1274622
1821
但这个研究并不包括它们。
21:29
This is one of the things
James詹姆士 Lovelock洛夫洛克 has been insisting坚持;
426
1277051
2906
这是詹姆斯•拉夫洛克
一直在坚持的事;
基本上,我们对海洋的认识,
尤其是对海洋生物,
21:31
basically基本上, our knowledge知识 of the oceans海洋,
especially特别 of ocean海洋 life,
427
1279981
3431
可以说是空白的,从这个层面来说。
21:35
is fundamentally从根本上 vapor, in this sense.
428
1283436
2127
所以我们正在处于探索的过程中,
21:37
So we're in the process处理 of finding发现 out
429
1285587
2040
21:39
by inadvertent非故意的 bad geoengineering地球工程
of too much COCO2 in the atmosphere大气层,
430
1287651
5239
通过糟糕的地球工程无意中
排放到大气中大量的二氧化碳
来探究海洋是
如何应对的这一现象的?
21:44
finding发现 out, what is
the ocean海洋 doing with that?
431
1292914
2331
好的,在温度升高的情况下,
海洋正在膨胀。
21:47
Well, the ocean海洋, with the extra额外 heat,
432
1295269
1898
21:49
is swelling肿胀 up.
433
1297191
1301
这就是为什么我们发现海平面上升,
21:50
That's most of where we're getting得到
the sea level水平 rise上升,
434
1298516
2538
并且随着全球温度升高,
海平面会继续上升。
21:53
and there's a lot more coming未来
with more global全球 warming变暖.
435
1301078
2632
珊瑚礁受到了严重的伤害,
21:55
We're getting得到 terrible可怕 harm危害
to some of the coral珊瑚 reefs珊瑚礁,
436
1303734
4418
比如,澳大利亚的珊瑚礁。
22:00
like off of Australia澳大利亚.
437
1308176
1801
这些珊瑚由于海水温度升高而褪色。
22:02
The great reef there is just
a lot of bleaching from overheating过热.
438
1310509
4309
22:06
And this is why I and Danny丹尼 Hillis希利斯,
in our previous以前 session会议 on the main主要 stage阶段,
439
1314842
6455
这就是为什么我和丹尼•希利斯,
在之前主舞台上说的:
22:13
was saying, "Look, geoengineering地球工程
is worth价值 experimenting试验 with enough足够
440
1321321
4366
“看,地球工程是非常值得实验的,
看看它是否有效,
22:17
to see that it works作品,
441
1325711
1486
看看,我们是否可以
在气候变暖方面争取时间,
22:19
to see if we can buy购买 time
in the warming变暖 aspect方面 of all of this,
442
1327221
4475
以微小但可用的研究来调节系统,
22:24
tweak the system系统 with small
but usable可用 research研究,
443
1332264
4767
然后看看我们除此之外
还可以多做些什么。
22:29
and then see if we should
do more than tweak.
444
1337055
2312
克:好的,所以这就是我们
在最后几分钟即将讨论的
22:32
CACA: OK, so this is what
we're going to talk about
445
1340119
2393
22:34
for the last few少数 minutes分钟 here
446
1342536
1435
因为这是个非常重要的讨论。
22:35
because it's such这样 an important重要 discussion讨论.
447
1343995
2046
首先,这本尤瓦尔•赫拉利刚出版的书,
22:38
First of all, this book
was just published发表 by Yuval尤瓦 Harari哈拉里.
448
1346065
3745
22:41
He's basically基本上 saying the next下一个 evolution演化
of humans人类 is to become成为 as gods.
449
1349834
4145
他基本上在说人类
下一阶段的进化会变得像神一样。
22:46
I think he --
450
1354003
1151
我认为他……
22:47
SBSB: Now, you've talked to him.
And you've probably大概 finished the book.
451
1355178
3312
斯:现在,你已经和他聊过了,
你应该已经读过这本书。
我还没读完。
22:50
I haven't没有 finished it yet然而.
452
1358514
1286
他是从哪里得出……
22:51
Where does he come out on --
453
1359824
1462
克:我是说,这是
一个非常激进的观点。
22:53
CACA: I mean, it's a pretty漂亮 radical激进 view视图.
454
1361310
4162
他认为我们以后完全可以
重新制造我们自己,
22:57
He thinks that we will
completely全然 remake翻拍 ourselves我们自己
455
1365496
3424
运用数据和生物工程,
23:00
using运用 data数据, using运用 bioengineering生物工程,
456
1368944
3475
23:04
to become成为 completely全然 new creatures生物
457
1372443
2140
使我们变成全新的物种。
就好像,拥有超能力。
23:06
that have, kind of, superpowers超级大国,
458
1374607
2026
23:08
and that there will be huge巨大 inequality不等式.
459
1376657
3232
这将存在非常大的不平等。
但是我们即将谱写一个
非常激进的、全新的历史篇章。
23:11
But we're about to write a very radical激进,
brand-new全新的 chapter章节 of history历史.
460
1379913
5273
这是他所相信的。
23:17
That's what he believes相信.
461
1385210
1572
23:18
SBSB: Is he nervous紧张 about that? I forget忘记.
462
1386806
1943
他对于这点很紧张吗?
我不记得了。
23:20
CACA: He's nervous紧张 about it,
463
1388773
2441
他对此很紧张,
23:23
but I think he also
likes喜欢 provoking发人深省 people.
464
1391238
2892
但是我认为他也喜欢煽动群众。
23:26
SBSB: Are you nervous紧张 about that?
465
1394154
1985
斯:你对此紧张吗?
23:28
CACA: I'm nervous紧张 about that.
466
1396163
1418
克:我对于这点感到紧张。
23:29
But, you know, with so much at TEDTED,
I'm excited兴奋 and nervous紧张.
467
1397605
4065
但是,你知道,
在TED上分享了这么多信息,
我对此感到激动和紧张。
23:33
And the optimist乐天派 in me
is trying hard to lean towards
468
1401694
3756
我的乐天思想在努力地主导我,
让我乐观看待它,
“这太棒了,非常令人激动,”
23:37
"This is awesome真棒 and really exciting扣人心弦,"
469
1405474
2088
但我另一部分的想法是,
23:39
while the sort分类 of responsible主管
part部分 of me is saying,
470
1407586
2439
23:42
"But, uh, maybe we should
be a little bit careful小心
471
1410049
2339
“可能我们应该小心谨慎一些
去思考这些问题。”
23:44
as to how we think of it."
472
1412412
1323
斯:这是你在这个节目的秘诀,是吗?
23:45
SBSB: That's your secret秘密 sauce,
isn't it, for TEDTED?
473
1413759
2372
保持紧张和激动。
23:48
Staying入住 nervous紧张 and excited兴奋.
474
1416155
1576
23:50
CACA: It's also the recipe食谱 for being存在
a little bit schizophrenic精神分裂症.
475
1418910
3188
这也是变得精神分裂的秘方。
23:54
But he didn't quote引用 you.
476
1422122
4685
但他没有引用你的话。
23:58
What I thought was an astonishing惊人
statement声明 that you made制作
477
1426831
2740
我想到的是你的
一个令人惊讶的表述,
就在原版《全球目录》的后面,
24:01
right back in the original原版的
Whole整个 Earth地球 Catalog目录,
478
1429595
4253
你以这段强有力的话结尾:
24:05
you ended结束 it with this powerful强大 phrase短语:
479
1433872
3200
24:09
"We are as gods,
and might威力 as well get good at it."
480
1437096
3441
“我们像神一样,不妨好好成为他。”
然后,最近,你升级了这段话。
24:12
And then more recently最近,
you've upgraded升级 that statement声明.
481
1440561
2672
我想你谈谈这个哲学。
24:15
I want you talk about this philosophy哲学.
482
1443257
1824
24:17
SBSB: Well, one of the things I'm learning学习
is that documentation文件
483
1445105
3615
斯:好的,我意识到的其中一件事是
文档比记忆好,
到目前为止是这样。
24:20
is better than memory记忆 -- by far.
484
1448744
2992
24:23
And one of the things I've learned学到了
from somebody --
485
1451760
2965
我从其他人身上学到的一件事是……
事实是,我在推特上看到的。
24:26
I actually其实 got on Twitter推特.
486
1454749
2655
它改变了我的人生……
它现在还对我有很大影响!
24:29
It changed my life --
it hasn't有没有 forgiven原谅 me yet然而!
487
1457428
3700
24:33
And I took ownership所有权 of this phrase短语
when somebody quoted it,
488
1461152
4002
后来,这句话就成了我的,
当别人引用它,并说:
24:37
and somebody else其他 said,
489
1465178
1556
24:38
"Oh by the way, that isn't
what you originally本来 wrote
490
1466758
2463
“哦,顺便说一下,这不是你最初
在 1968 年初版《全球目录》上的原话。
24:41
in that first 1968 Whole整个 Earth地球 Catalog目录.
491
1469245
2767
你当时写的是,
“我们像神一样,不妨去习惯它。”
24:44
You wrote, 'We'我们 are as gods
and might威力 as well get used to it.'"
492
1472036
3068
我已经完全忘记了。
24:47
I'd forgotten忘记了 that entirely完全.
493
1475128
2261
这些事……这些该死的故事……
这些我们告诉自己的故事
24:49
The stories故事 -- these goddam该死 stories故事 --
the stories故事 we tell ourselves我们自己
494
1477413
3363
随时间流逝变成了谎言。
24:52
become成为 lies over time.
495
1480800
1816
所以,文档帮助我们解决了这个问题。
24:55
So, documentation文件 helps帮助 cut through通过 that.
496
1483076
2793
这句话确实变成了:
“我们像神一样,不妨好好成为他。”
24:57
It did move移动 on to "We are as gods
and might威力 as well get good at it,"
497
1485893
3239
这就是《全球目录》所倡导的。
25:01
and that was the Whole整个 Earth地球 Catalog目录.
498
1489156
1885
25:03
By the time I was doing a book
called "Whole整个 Earth地球 Discipline学科:
499
1491065
3064
在我写这本书的时候:
《地球的法则:一个生态实用主义者的宣言》
25:06
An EcopragmatistEcopragmatist Manifesto宣言,"
500
1494153
2366
25:08
and in light of climate气候 change更改,
basically基本上 saying that we are as gods
501
1496543
3192
鉴于气候变化,基本上就是说,
我们像神一样,不得不好好成为他。
25:11
and have to get good at it.
502
1499759
1599
克:我们像神一样,
不得不好好成为他。
25:13
CACA: We are as gods
and have to get good at it.
503
1501382
2264
25:15
So talk about that, because
the psychological心理 reaction反应
504
1503670
3559
所以说到这个,
因为一旦当你说到地球工程,
很多人的心理反应是
25:19
from so many许多 people as soon不久
as you talk about geoengineering地球工程
505
1507253
3154
他们不认为人类应该是神……
25:22
is that the last thing they believe
is that humans人类 should be gods --
506
1510431
3261
一些人由于宗教原因,
25:25
some of them for religious宗教 reasons原因,
507
1513716
1884
但大多数由于谦卑的原因,
25:27
but most just for humility谦逊 reasons原因,
508
1515624
2921
25:30
that the systems系统 are too complex复杂,
509
1518569
1621
这系统太过于复杂,
25:32
we should not be dabbling涉足 that way.
510
1520214
2659
我们不应该涉猎其中。
斯:这个嘛,是希腊人
对傲慢自大的看法。
25:35
SBSB: Well, this is the Greek希腊语
narrative叙述 about hubris傲慢.
511
1523642
3939
25:39
And once一旦 you start开始 getting得到
really sure of yourself你自己,
512
1527605
3267
一旦你开始非常自信,
结局就是你和你妈妈上床了。
25:42
you wind up sleeping睡眠 with your mother母亲.
513
1530896
2657
25:45
(Laughter笑声)
514
1533577
2618
(笑声)
克:我没想到你会说这个。
25:48
CACA: I did not expect期望 you would say that.
515
1536219
2001
(笑声)
25:50
(Laughter笑声)
516
1538244
1667
斯:这就是俄狄浦斯的故事。
25:53
SBSB: That's the Oedipus俄狄浦斯 story故事.
517
1541600
2588
傲慢是一个很重要的警示故事,
25:56
Hubris傲慢 is a really important重要
cautionary警示 tale故事 to always have at hand.
518
1544212
5354
非常常见的。
26:03
One of the guidelines方针
I've kept不停 for myself is:
519
1551734
3782
我的其中一个指导方针就是:
26:07
every一切 day I ask myself how many许多 things
I am dead wrong错误 about.
520
1555540
4519
每天问自己,我弄错了多少事。
26:13
And I'm a scientist科学家 by training训练
521
1561393
3089
我是一个受过训练的科学家。
这些天与一些科学家一起工作,
26:16
and getting得到 to work
with scientists科学家们 these days,
522
1564506
2319
非常愉悦。
26:18
which哪一个 is pure joy喜悦.
523
1566849
1247
26:20
Science科学 is organized有组织的 skepticism怀疑论.
524
1568120
3072
科学家是有组织的怀疑主义。
所以你总是坚持,
26:24
So you're always insisting坚持
525
1572042
3536
26:27
that even when something
looks容貌 pretty漂亮 good,
526
1575602
3399
即使当一些事
看上去非常好的时候,
26:31
you maintain保持 a full充分 set
of not only suspicions猜疑
527
1579850
3362
你依然怀疑,
它是不是真的像看上去的那样好,
26:35
about whether是否 it's as good as it looks容貌,
528
1583236
2095
还会想,还有什么其他事在发生?
26:37
but: What else其他 is going on?
529
1585355
1597
所以这个对
“还有什么事在发生”的疑问,
26:38
So this "What else其他 is going?" on query询问,
530
1586976
3322
我认为,这是你远离假新闻的方式。
26:42
I think, is how you get
away from fake news新闻.
531
1590322
4103
26:46
It's not necessarily一定 real真实 news新闻,
532
1594449
2504
不一定是真的新闻,
26:50
but it's welcomely受欢迎 more complex复杂 news新闻
533
1598274
4049
但会伴随其他更复杂的新闻
你想要接受。
26:54
that you're trying to take on.
534
1602347
1537
克:但是,说回到
把这一点应用于环境上,
26:55
CACA: But coming未来 back to the application应用
of this just for the environment环境:
535
1603908
3461
这个哲学看起来是,
无论你喜欢与否,
26:59
it seems似乎 like the philosophy哲学 of this
is that, whether是否 we like it or not,
536
1607393
3440
我们已经主导了
很多地球上发生的事了,
27:02
we are already已经 dominating主导 so many许多 aspects方面
of what happens发生 on planets行星,
537
1610857
3443
27:06
and we're doing it unintentionally无意中,
538
1614324
1692
而且我们是
无意识的在做这些事。
27:08
so we really should start开始
doing it intentionally故意地.
539
1616040
4381
所以我们真的应该开始
有意的去做一些事。
如果我们像神一样做事会是怎样的?
27:12
What would it look like to start开始
getting得到 good at being存在 a god?
540
1620445
3983
我们如何开始这样做呢?
27:16
How should we start开始 doing that?
541
1624452
2020
有小规模的实验或系统
能让我们先试行一下吗?
27:18
Are there small-scale小型 experiments实验
or systems系统 we can nudge微调 and play with?
542
1626496
3896
我们究竟该如何看待它?
27:22
How on earth地球 do we think about it?
543
1630416
1959
斯:我的一位良师将我从
27:24
SBSB: The mentor导师 that sort分类 of freed释放 me
544
1632399
1803
巴克明斯特·富勒的观点中解放出来,
27:26
from total allegiance忠诚
to Buckminster巴克明斯特 Fuller富勒
545
1634226
2280
27:28
was Gregory格雷戈里 Bateson贝特森.
546
1636530
1776
这个人就是格雷戈里·贝特森。
格雷戈里·贝特森是一位
27:30
And Gregory格雷戈里 Bateson贝特森 was an epistemologist认识论
and anthropologist人类学家 and biologist生物学家
547
1638857
6522
知识学家,人类学家,生物学家,
心理学家,和其他领域。
27:37
and psychologist心理学家 and many许多 other things,
548
1645403
1889
27:39
and he looked看着 at how systems系统
basically基本上 look at themselves他们自己.
549
1647316
5099
他站在系统的角度来观察它。
27:44
And that is, I think, part部分 of how
you want to always be looking at things.
550
1652439
5515
这是,我觉得,
这是你如何观察事物的一部分。
27:49
And what I like about David大卫 Keith's基思的
approach途径 to geoengineering地球工程
551
1657978
3528
我喜欢大卫·基恩处理
地球工程的方式是,
27:53
is you don't just haul运输 off and do it.
552
1661530
1885
你不是拖拖拉拉的去做,
27:56
David大卫 Keith's基思的 approach途径 --
553
1664093
1287
大卫的方法是……
这是丹尼•希利斯之前提到的……
27:57
and this is what Danny丹尼 Hillis希利斯
was talking about earlier --
554
1665404
3097
28:00
is that you do it really,
really incrementally增量,
555
1668525
2445
你循序渐进去做,
你做一些事去调节系统,
然后看看它会如何反应,
28:02
you do some stuff东东 to tweak the system系统,
see how it responds响应,
556
1670994
3869
系统会反馈给你一些信息。
28:06
that tells告诉 you something about the system系统.
557
1674887
2021
这就呼应了人们所说的,
28:08
That's responding响应 to the fact事实
that people say, quite相当 rightly正当地,
558
1676932
4413
“我们正在说什么?
28:13
"What are we talking about here?
559
1681369
1589
我们不明白气候系统是如何运作的。
28:14
We don't understand理解
how the climate气候 system系统 works作品.
560
1682982
2377
如果你不了解,你是不能改变它的。”
28:17
You can't engineer工程师 a system系统
you don't understand理解."
561
1685383
2671
然后大卫说:
“那好吧,这一定适用于人体,
28:20
And David大卫 says, "Well, that certainly当然
applies适用 to the human人的 body身体,
562
1688569
3183
医药研发就发生在我们了解人体之前,
28:23
and yet然而 medicine医学 goes ahead,
and we're kind of glad高兴 that it has."
563
1691776
3782
而我们很庆幸这样做了。”
28:27
The way you engineer工程师 a system系统
that is so large and complex复杂
564
1695582
4013
你想要改变一个巨大且复杂的系统,
在你不完全了解它的时候,
28:31
that you can't completely全然 understand理解 it
565
1699619
2020
你需要做的就是小幅度改变它,
28:33
is you tweak it,
566
1701663
1194
这算是一种反傲慢的处理方式。
28:34
and this is kind of
an anti-hubristic抗傲慢 approach途径.
567
1702881
2601
这是:一点点去尝试,
28:37
This is: try a little bit here,
568
1705506
1917
如果遇到问题就退回来,
28:39
back the hell地狱 off if it's an issue问题,
569
1707447
2104
如果情况顺利,就继续推进,
28:41
expand扩大 it if it seems似乎 to go OK,
570
1709575
1807
28:43
meanwhile与此同时, have other paths路径 going forward前锋.
571
1711406
2002
与其他方法一起,同时进行。
28:45
This is the whole整个 argument论据 for diversity多样
and dialogue对话 and all these other things
572
1713432
4083
这就是我们今天
所谈论的内容提要,关于多样性,
以及之前塞巴斯蒂安所讲的一切。
28:49
and the things we were hearing听力
about earlier with Sebastian塞巴斯蒂安 [Thrun史朗].
573
1717539
3235
所以非傲慢的方式
是寻求社会许可,
28:53
So the non-hubristic非傲慢 approach途径
is looking for social社会 license执照,
574
1721393
6490
我认为这是很好的一个术语,
28:59
which哪一个 is a terminology术语
that I think is a good one,
575
1727907
2541
29:02
of including包含 society社会 enough足够
576
1730472
2147
涵盖足够多的这些,
29:04
in these interesting有趣,
problematic问题, deep issues问题
577
1732643
4001
有趣的、有问题、深刻的社会问题,
29:08
that they get to have a pretty漂亮 good idea理念
578
1736668
3820
他们要有个很好的想法,
29:12
and have people that they trust相信
paying付款 close attention注意
579
1740512
2791
有可信任的人去密切关注
29:15
to the sequence序列 of experiments实验
as it's going forward前锋,
580
1743327
3824
实验推进的结果,
随着逐步实施后的公众对话……
29:19
the public上市 dialogue对话
as it's going forward前锋 --
581
1747175
3019
这比以往要更公开,这非常好……
29:22
which哪一个 is more public上市 than ever,
which哪一个 is fantastic奇妙 --
582
1750218
3095
29:25
and you feel your way,
583
1753337
2425
你感觉摸索到正确的方向,
慢慢地随着这个方向前行,
29:28
you just ooze your way along沿,
584
1756653
1683
目前为止,这是非常有效的,
且可以蒙混过关的方法。
29:30
and this is the muddle-through蒙混过关 approach途径
that has worked工作 pretty漂亮 well so far.
585
1758360
4610
29:34
The reason原因 that Sebastian塞巴斯蒂安
and I are optimistic乐观 is we read
586
1762994
3609
塞巴斯蒂安和我能如此乐观是因为
我们读到像是史蒂文·平克的
《人性中的善良天使》,
29:38
people like Steven史蒂芬 Pinker平克,
"The Better Angels天使 of Our Nature性质,"
587
1766627
3473
29:42
and so far, so good.
588
1770124
2541
到目前为止,一切顺利。
现在,我们总能改变,
29:45
Now, that can always change更改,
589
1773078
3101
但是你可以在这种感觉上
建立很多东西:事情可以变得更好,
29:48
but you can build建立 a lot on that sense
of: things are capable of getting得到 better,
590
1776203
5615
找出实现这一点的工具,
并进一步应用它们。
29:54
figure数字 out the tools工具 that made制作
that happen发生 and apply应用 those further进一步.
591
1782587
3201
就是这样。
29:57
That's the story故事.
592
1785812
1639
克:斯图尔特,我对此持乐观态度,
29:59
CACA: Stewart斯图尔特, I think
on that optimistic乐观 note注意,
593
1787475
2305
事实上我们很快就要结束了。
30:01
we're actually其实 going to wrap up.
594
1789804
1662
我敬畏你……
30:03
I am in awe威严 of how you always
are willing愿意 to challenge挑战 yourself你自己
595
1791490
5117
你总是愿意挑战自己和其他人。
30:08
and other people.
596
1796631
1355
我觉得这种永不让自己
过于肯定的方法
30:10
I feel like this recipe食谱 for never
allowing允许 yourself你自己 to be too certain某些
597
1798010
5781
是非常强大的。
30:15
is so powerful强大.
598
1803815
1403
我希望自己能学到这一点,
30:17
I want to learn学习 it more for myself,
599
1805242
1931
事实上,今天你所讲的
是非常深刻而又令人振奋的。
30:19
and it's been very insightful见地
and inspiring鼓舞人心, actually其实,
600
1807197
4077
30:23
listening to you today今天.
601
1811298
1181
30:24
Stewart斯图尔特 Brand, thank you so much.
602
1812503
1601
斯图尔特·布兰德,非常感谢您。
谢谢
30:26
SBSB: Thank you.
603
1814128
1158
(掌声)
30:27
(Applause掌声)
604
1815310
3119
Translated by Mengyuan Yu
Reviewed by Yanyan Hong

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ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...

Why you should listen

With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.

Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.

Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”

More profile about the speaker
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com