TEDxUGA
J. Marshall Shepherd: 3 kinds of bias that shape your worldview
J. Marshall Shepherd: 3 vrste predrasuda koje oblikuju pogled na svijet
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Što oblikuje naša shvaćanja (i neshvaćanja) znanosti? U prosvjetljujućem govoru, meteorolog J. Marshall Shepherd objašnjava kako sklonost potvrdi, Dunning-Krugerov efekt i kognitivna disonanca utječu na ono što mislimo da znamo - i predlaže kako ih možemo zamijeniti nečim puno snažnijim: znanjem.
J. Marshall Shepherd - Meteorologist
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia. Full bio
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm a meteorologist by degree,
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Ja sam meteorolog po struci,
00:14
I have a bachelor's,
master's and PhD in physical meteorology,
master's and PhD in physical meteorology,
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završio sam prvostupnički,
diplomski i doktorski iz meteorologije,
diplomski i doktorski iz meteorologije,
00:17
so I'm a meteorologist, card carrying.
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dakle, ja sam meteorolog,
od glave do pete.
od glave do pete.
00:20
And so with that comes
four questions, always.
four questions, always.
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I s tim dolaze četiri pitanja, uvijek.
00:25
This is one prediction
I will always get right.
I will always get right.
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To je jedno predviđanje
koje uvijek pogodim.
koje uvijek pogodim.
00:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:29
And those questions are,
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A ta pitanja su:
00:31
"Marshall, what channel are you on?"
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"Marshall, na kojem si programu?"
00:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:36
"Dr. Shepherd, what's the weather
going to be tomorrow?"
going to be tomorrow?"
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"Dr. Shepherd,
kakvo će vrijeme biti sutra?"
kakvo će vrijeme biti sutra?"
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:39
And oh, I love this one:
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I, volim ovo:
00:41
"My daughter is getting married
next September, it's an outdoor wedding.
next September, it's an outdoor wedding.
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"Moja kći se udaje sljedećeg rujna,
svadba će biti na otvorenom.
svadba će biti na otvorenom.
00:45
Is it going to rain?"
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Hoće li padati kiša?"
00:46
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:47
Not kidding, I get those,
and I don't know the answer to that,
and I don't know the answer to that,
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Ne šalim se, pitaju me to,
i ne znam odgovor,
i ne znam odgovor,
00:50
the science isn't there.
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znanost to još ne zna.
00:53
But the one I get a lot these days is,
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No, u zadnje vrijeme me često pitaju:
00:56
"Dr. Shepherd, do you believe
in climate change?"
in climate change?"
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"Dr. Shepherd, vjerujete li
u klimatske promjene?"
u klimatske promjene?"
01:01
"Do you believe in global warming?"
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"Vjerujete li u globalno zatopljenje?"
01:04
Now, I have to gather myself
every time I get that question.
every time I get that question.
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Moram se sabrati svaki put
kad me to pitaju.
kad me to pitaju.
01:08
Because it's an ill-posed question --
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Jer je pitanje loše postavljeno,
01:10
science isn't a belief system.
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znanost nije sustav vjerovanja.
01:12
My son, he's 10 --
he believes in the tooth fairy.
he believes in the tooth fairy.
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Moj sin, ima 10 godina,
vjeruje u Zubić vilu.
vjeruje u Zubić vilu.
01:16
And he needs to get over that,
because I'm losing dollars, fast.
because I'm losing dollars, fast.
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I to treba proći jer gubim novac, brzo.
01:20
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:22
But he believes in the tooth fairy.
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Ali on vjeruje u Zubić vilu.
01:24
But consider this.
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Razmislite o ovome.
01:27
Bank of America building,
there, in Atlanta.
there, in Atlanta.
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Zgrada Bank of America u Atlanti.
01:29
You never hear anyone say,
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Nikada nećete čuti da netko kaže:
01:32
"Do you believe, if you go
to the top of that building
to the top of that building
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"Vjeruješ li, ako odeš na vrh zgrade
01:35
and throw a ball off, it's going to fall?"
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i s nje baciš loptu, da će ona pasti?"
01:37
You never hear that,
because gravity is a thing.
because gravity is a thing.
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To nećete čuti
jer je gravitacija prihvaćena.
jer je gravitacija prihvaćena.
01:42
So why don't we hear the question,
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Zašto ne čujemo pitanje:
01:44
"Do you believe in gravity?"
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"Vjeruješ li u gravitaciju?"
01:46
But of course, we hear the question,
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Ali naravno, čujemo pitanje,
01:48
"Do you believe in global warming?"
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"Vjeruješ li u globalno zatopljenje?"
01:52
Well, consider these facts.
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Pa, razmislite o ovim činjenicama.
01:55
The American Association
for the Advancement of Science, AAAS,
for the Advancement of Science, AAAS,
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Američko društvo
za unapređenje znanosti, AAAS,
za unapređenje znanosti, AAAS,
01:58
one of the leading
organizations in science,
organizations in science,
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jedna od vodećih organizacija u znanosti,
02:01
queried scientists and the public
on different science topics.
on different science topics.
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ispitala je znanstvenike i javnost
o različitim znanstvenim temama.
o različitim znanstvenim temama.
02:05
Here are some of them:
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Ovo su neke od njih:
02:06
genetically modified food,
animal research, human evolution.
animal research, human evolution.
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GMO, istraživanja na životinjama,
ljudska evolucija.
ljudska evolucija.
02:11
And look at what the scientists
say about those,
say about those,
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Pogledajte što znanstvenici kažu o tome,
02:14
the people that actually
study those topics, in red,
study those topics, in red,
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ljudi koji proučavaju te teme, crveno,
02:16
versus the gray, what the public thinks.
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u odnosu na sivo, što javnost misli.
02:19
How did we get there?
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Kako smo došli do toga?
02:21
How did we get there?
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Kako smo došli do toga,
02:24
That scientists and the public
are so far apart on these science issues.
are so far apart on these science issues.
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da su znanstvenici i javnost
tako podijeljeni u znanstvenim pitanjima?
tako podijeljeni u znanstvenim pitanjima?
02:29
Well, I'll come a little bit
closer to home for me,
closer to home for me,
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Objasnit ću na nečemu što mi je blisko,
02:31
climate change.
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klimatskim promjenama.
02:33
Eighty-seven percent of scientists
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87 % znanstvenika
02:36
believe that humans are contributing
to climate change.
to climate change.
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vjeruje da ljudi doprinose
klimatskim promjenama.
klimatskim promjenama.
02:41
But only 50 percent of the public?
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Ali samo 50 % javnosti?
02:45
How did we get there?
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Kako smo došli do toga?
02:46
So it begs the question,
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Tako dolazimo do pitanja,
02:48
what shapes perceptions about science?
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što oblikuje mišljenje o znanosti?
02:54
It's an interesting question
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To je zanimljivo pitanje
02:56
and one that I've been
thinking about quite a bit.
thinking about quite a bit.
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o kojem sam dosta razmišljao.
03:00
I think that one thing that shapes
perceptions in the public, about science,
perceptions in the public, about science,
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Mislim da pogled na znanost
u javnosti oblikuju
u javnosti oblikuju
03:05
is belief systems and biases.
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sustavi vjerovanja i predrasude.
03:08
Belief systems and biases.
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Sustavi vjerovanja i predrasude.
03:09
Go with me for a moment.
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Pratite me na trenutak.
03:12
Because I want to talk
about three elements of that:
about three elements of that:
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Jer želim govoriti o tri elementa toga:
sklonosti potvrdi,
Dunning-Krugerovom efektu
Dunning-Krugerovom efektu
03:14
confirmation bias, Dunning-Kruger effect
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03:18
and cognitive dissonance.
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i kognitivnoj disonanci.
03:20
Now, these sound like big, fancy,
academic terms, and they are.
academic terms, and they are.
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Zvuče kao veliki, otmjeni,
akademski pojmovi, i jesu.
akademski pojmovi, i jesu.
03:24
But when I describe them,
you're going to be like, "Oh!
you're going to be like, "Oh!
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Ali kad ih opišem, reći ćete: "O!
03:28
I recognize that; I even know
somebody that does that."
somebody that does that."
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Prepoznajem to, čak znam
nekoga tko to radi."
nekoga tko to radi."
03:33
Confirmation bias.
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Sklonost potvrdi.
03:36
Finding evidence that supports
what we already believe.
what we already believe.
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Pronalaženje dokaza koji
potvrđuju ono što već vjerujemo.
potvrđuju ono što već vjerujemo.
03:40
Now, we're probably all
a little bit guilty of that at times.
a little bit guilty of that at times.
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Vjerojatno to svi ponekad radimo.
03:45
Take a look at this.
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Pogledajte ovo.
03:46
I'm on Twitter.
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Na Twitteru sam.
03:48
And often, when it snows,
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I često, kad pada snijeg,
03:50
I'll get this tweet back to me.
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pošalju mi ovo.
03:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:55
"Hey, Dr. Shepherd, I have 20 inches
of global warming in my yard,
of global warming in my yard,
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"Hey, dr. Shepherd, imam 50 cm
globalnog zatopljenja u dvorištu,
globalnog zatopljenja u dvorištu,
03:58
what are you guys
talking about, climate change?"
talking about, climate change?"
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o kakvim klimatskim promjenama
vi pričate?"
vi pričate?"
04:01
I get that tweet a lot, actually.
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Često mi to, zapravo, pošalju.
04:04
It's a cute tweet,
it makes me chuckle as well.
it makes me chuckle as well.
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Slatka objava, nasmijem se na to.
04:07
But it's oh, so fundamentally
scientifically flawed.
scientifically flawed.
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Ali je u temelju znanstveno pogrešna.
04:12
Because it illustrates
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Jer pokazuje
04:13
that the person tweeting
doesn't understand
doesn't understand
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da osoba koja to objavi ne razumije
04:15
the difference
between weather and climate.
between weather and climate.
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razliku između vremena i klime.
04:19
I often say, weather is your mood
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Često kažem, vrijeme je vaše raspoloženje
04:23
and climate is your personality.
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a klima je osobnost.
04:26
Think about that.
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Razmislite o tome.
Vrijeme je raspoloženje,
klima je osobnost.
klima je osobnost.
04:28
Weather is your mood,
climate is your personality.
climate is your personality.
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04:30
Your mood today doesn't necessarily
tell me anything about your personality,
tell me anything about your personality,
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Vaše raspoloženje danas ne govori nužno
išta o vašoj osobnosti,
išta o vašoj osobnosti,
04:34
nor does a cold day tell me anything
about climate change,
about climate change,
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niti mi hladan dan govori išta
o klimatskim promjenama,
o klimatskim promjenama,
04:37
or a hot day, for that matter.
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ili topao dan isto tako.
04:41
Dunning-Kruger.
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Dunning-Kruger.
04:43
Two scholars from Cornell
came up with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
came up with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
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Dva znanstvenika s Cornella
su izmislila Dunning-Krugerov efekt.
su izmislila Dunning-Krugerov efekt.
04:46
If you go look up
the peer-reviewed paper for this,
the peer-reviewed paper for this,
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Ako pogledate recenziran rad o ovome,
vidjet ćete svakakvu
otmjenu terminologiju:
otmjenu terminologiju:
04:49
you will see all kinds
of fancy terminology:
of fancy terminology:
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04:51
it's an illusory superiority complex,
thinking we know things.
thinking we know things.
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To je iluzorni kompleks superiornosti,
misliti da znamo stvari.
misliti da znamo stvari.
04:55
In other words, people think
they know more than they do.
they know more than they do.
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Drugim riječima, ljudi misle
da znaju više nego što znaju.
da znaju više nego što znaju.
04:59
Or they underestimate
what they don't know.
what they don't know.
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Ili podcjenjuju ono što ne znaju.
05:02
And then, there's cognitive dissonance.
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Zatim imamo kognitivnu disonancu.
05:06
Cognitive dissonance is interesting.
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Kognitivna disonanca je zanimljiva.
05:09
We just recently had Groundhog Day, right?
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Upravo smo imali Sviščev dan, zar ne?
05:13
Now, there's no better definition
of cognitive dissonance
of cognitive dissonance
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Nema bolje definicije kognitivne disonance
05:15
than intelligent people asking me
if a rodent's forecast is accurate.
if a rodent's forecast is accurate.
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nego kad me inteligentni ljudi
pitaju je li prognoza glodavca točna.
pitaju je li prognoza glodavca točna.
05:19
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:22
But I get that, all of the time.
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Ali me to stalno pitaju.
05:24
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:26
But I also hear
about the Farmer's Almanac.
about the Farmer's Almanac.
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Također čujem za Farmerski almanah.
05:29
We grew up on the Farmer's Almanac,
people are familiar with it.
people are familiar with it.
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Odrasli smo s Farmerskim almanahom,
ljudima je poznat.
ljudima je poznat.
05:34
The problem is, it's only
about 37 percent accurate,
about 37 percent accurate,
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Problem je što je samo oko 37 % točan,
05:37
according to studies
at Penn State University.
at Penn State University.
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prema studijama Sveučilišta Penn State.
05:43
But we're in an era of science
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Ali mi smo u eri znanosti
05:47
where we actually
can forecast the weather.
can forecast the weather.
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i zaista možemo predvidjeti vrijeme.
Vjerovali ili ne, i znam da
neki od vas misle: "Da, stvarno",
neki od vas misle: "Da, stvarno",
05:49
And believe it or not, and I know
some of you are like, "Yeah, right,"
some of you are like, "Yeah, right,"
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u oko 90 % slučajeva ili više,
točni smo s vremenskom prognozom.
točni smo s vremenskom prognozom.
05:52
we're about 90 percent accurate, or more,
with weather forecast.
with weather forecast.
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Vi obično zapamtite povremene propuste.
05:55
You just tend to remember
the occasional miss, you do.
the occasional miss, you do.
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05:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:02
So confirmation bias,
Dunning-Kruger and cognitive dissonance.
Dunning-Kruger and cognitive dissonance.
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Sklonost potvrdi, Dunning-Kruger
i kognitivna disonanca.
i kognitivna disonanca.
06:05
I think those shape biases and perceptions
that people have about science.
that people have about science.
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Mislim da oni oblikuju predrasude i
percepcije ljudi o znanosti.
percepcije ljudi o znanosti.
06:11
But then, there's literacy
and misinformation
and misinformation
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S druge strane, pismenost i dezinformacije
06:13
that keep us boxed in, as well.
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nam također zatvaraju vidike.
06:17
During the hurricane season of 2017,
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Tijekom sezone uragana 2017. godine,
06:20
media outlets had to actually
assign reporters
assign reporters
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mediji su zaista morali zadati novinarima
06:24
to dismiss fake information
about the weather forecast.
about the weather forecast.
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da zanemare lažne informacije
o vremenskoj prognozi.
o vremenskoj prognozi.
06:30
That's the era that we're in.
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U takvom razdoblju živimo.
06:32
I deal with this all the time
in social media.
in social media.
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S time se moram stalno boriti
u društvenim medijima.
u društvenim medijima.
06:35
Someone will tweet a forecast --
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Netko objavi prognozu -
06:36
that's a forecast for Hurricane Irma,
but here's the problem:
but here's the problem:
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ovo je prognoza za uragan Irmu,
ali tu je problem:
ali tu je problem:
06:39
it didn't come from the Hurricane Center.
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nije ju izdao Centar za uragane.
06:42
But people were tweeting
and sharing this; it went viral.
and sharing this; it went viral.
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Ali ljudi su je objavljivali
i dijelili, brzo se širilo.
i dijelili, brzo se širilo.
06:45
It didn't come from
the National Hurricane Center at all.
the National Hurricane Center at all.
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Nije ju uopće objavio
Nacionalni centar za uragane.
Nacionalni centar za uragane.
06:50
So I spent 12 years of my career at NASA
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Proveo sam 12 godina karijere u NASA-i
06:52
before coming
to the University of Georgia,
to the University of Georgia,
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prije dolaska na Sveučilište Georgia
i vodio sam Savjetodavni odbor
za znanost o Zemlji,
za znanost o Zemlji,
06:54
and I chair their Earth Science
Advisory Committee,
Advisory Committee,
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prošli tjedan sam bio tamo u Washingtonu.
06:57
I was just up there last week in DC.
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I vidio sam nešto vrlo zanimljivo.
06:59
And I saw some really interesting things.
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Ovo je NASA-in model
i znanstveni podaci sa satelita
i znanstveni podaci sa satelita
07:01
Here's a NASA model
and science data from satellite
and science data from satellite
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07:04
showing the 2017 hurricane season.
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koji pokazuju sezonu uragana 2017.
07:06
You see Hurricane Harvey there?
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Vidite li tamo uragan Harvey?
07:09
Look at all the dust coming off of Africa.
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Pogledajte svu prašinu
koja dolazi iz Afrike.
koja dolazi iz Afrike.
07:12
Look at the wildfires up in northwest US
and in western Canada.
and in western Canada.
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Pogledajte sve požare na sjeverozapadu
SAD-a i na zapadu Kanade.
SAD-a i na zapadu Kanade.
07:17
There comes Hurricane Irma.
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Evo uragana Irme.
07:20
This is fascinating to me.
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Ovo mi je nevjerojatno.
07:23
But admittedly, I'm a weather geek.
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Doduše, ja sam zaljubljenik u vrijeme.
07:26
But more importantly, it illustrates
that we have the technology
that we have the technology
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Još važnije, ovo pokazuje
da imamo tehnologiju,
da imamo tehnologiju,
07:30
to not only observe the weather
and climate system,
and climate system,
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ne samo da promatramo
vrijeme i klimatski sustav,
vrijeme i klimatski sustav,
07:33
but predict it.
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nego da ga i predviđamo.
07:34
There's scientific understanding,
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Postoji znanstveno shvaćanje,
07:36
so there's no need for some
of those perceptions and biases
of those perceptions and biases
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stoga nema potrebe za nekim
od onih percepcija i predrasuda
od onih percepcija i predrasuda
07:39
that we've been talking about.
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o kojima smo razgovarali.
07:41
We have knowledge.
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Imamo znanje.
07:42
But think about this ...
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Ali razmislite o ovome...
07:43
This is Houston, Texas,
after Hurricane Harvey.
after Hurricane Harvey.
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Ovo je Houston, u Teksasu,
nakon uragana Harvey.
nakon uragana Harvey.
07:47
Now, I write a contribution
for "Forbes" magazine periodically,
for "Forbes" magazine periodically,
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Naime, povremeno pišem za časopis Forbes
07:50
and I wrote an article a week before
Hurricane Harvey made landfall, saying,
Hurricane Harvey made landfall, saying,
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i napisao sam članak tjedan
prije udara uragana Harvey te naveo,
prije udara uragana Harvey te naveo,
07:55
"There's probably going to be
40 to 50 inches of rainfall."
40 to 50 inches of rainfall."
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"Vjerojatno će biti 101 do 127
centimetara oborina."
centimetara oborina."
07:58
I wrote that a week before it happened.
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Napisao sam to tjedan prije
nego što se dogodilo.
nego što se dogodilo.
08:01
But yet, when you talk
to people in Houston,
to people in Houston,
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Međutim, kad pričate s ljudima u Houstonu,
oni govore: "Nismo imali pojma
da će biti ovako loše."
da će biti ovako loše."
08:03
people are saying, "We had no idea
it was going to be this bad."
it was going to be this bad."
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08:07
I'm just...
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Samo...
08:08
(Sigh)
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(Uzdah)
08:09
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:10
A week before.
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Tjedan dana prije.
08:11
But --
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Ali...
08:13
I know, it's amusing, but the reality is,
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Znam, smiješno je, ali zapravo,
08:15
we all struggle with perceiving something
outside of our experience level.
outside of our experience level.
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svi se borimo da shvatimo nešto
iznad naše razine iskustva.
iznad naše razine iskustva.
08:21
People in Houston
get rain all of the time,
get rain all of the time,
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Ljudi u Houstonu stalno imaju kišu
08:24
they flood all of the time.
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i stalno imaju poplave.
08:26
But they've never experienced that.
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Ali nikad nisu ovo iskusili.
08:29
Houston gets about 34 inches of rainfall
for the entire year.
for the entire year.
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Houston dobije oko 86 cm oborina
za cijelu godinu.
za cijelu godinu.
08:33
They got 50 inches in three days.
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Sad su dobili 127 cm u 3 dana.
08:37
That's an anomaly event,
that's outside of the normal.
that's outside of the normal.
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Taj događaj je nepravilnost,
izvan uobičajenog.
izvan uobičajenog.
08:42
So belief systems and biases,
literacy and misinformation.
literacy and misinformation.
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Sustav vjerovanja i predrasude,
pismenost i dezinformacije.
pismenost i dezinformacije.
08:45
How do we step out of the boxes
that are cornering our perceptions?
that are cornering our perceptions?
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Kako da izađemo iz okvira koji
određuju naše percepcije?
određuju naše percepcije?
08:50
Well we don't even have to go to Houston,
we can come very close to home.
we can come very close to home.
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Ne moramo ni ići u Houston,
možemo biti i blizu doma.
možemo biti i blizu doma.
08:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:55
Remember "Snowpocalypse?"
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Sjećate li se "Snijegokalipse?"
08:57
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:59
Snowmageddon?
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Snijegmagedona?
09:00
Snowzilla?
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Snijegzille?
09:02
Whatever you want to call it.
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Kako god to želite zvati.
09:04
All two inches of it.
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Svih pet centimetara toga.
09:06
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:09
Two inches of snow
shut the city of Atlanta down.
shut the city of Atlanta down.
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Pet centimetara snijega
je zatvorilo cijeli grad Atlantu.
je zatvorilo cijeli grad Atlantu.
09:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:14
But the reality is,
we were in a winter storm watch,
we were in a winter storm watch,
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U stvarnosti, bili smo
u pripremi za snijeg,
u pripremi za snijeg,
09:19
we went to a winter weather advisory,
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bili smo kod savjetnika za zimsko vrijeme
09:21
and a lot of people perceived that
as being a downgrade,
as being a downgrade,
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i puno ljudi je to shvatilo
kao ne toliko važno,
kao ne toliko važno,
"O, neće biti tako strašno."
09:24
"Oh, it's not going to be as bad."
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Zapravo, percepcija je bila
da neće biti tako strašno,
da neće biti tako strašno,
09:26
When in fact, the perception
was that it was not going to be as bad,
was that it was not going to be as bad,
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ali je to zapravo bilo pogoršanje.
09:29
but it was actually an upgrade.
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Situacija se pogoršavala
kako su modeli dolazili.
kako su modeli dolazili.
09:31
Things were getting worse
as the models were coming in.
as the models were coming in.
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09:33
So that's an example of how we get
boxed in by our perceptions.
boxed in by our perceptions.
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I to je primjer kako smo
pod utjecajem naših percepcija.
pod utjecajem naših percepcija.
09:38
So, the question becomes,
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Tako nastaje pitanje,
09:40
how do we expand our radius?
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kako da proširimo naš radijus?
09:45
The area of a circle is "pi r squared".
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Površina kruga je "π x r na kvadrat".
09:47
We increase the radius,
we increase the area.
we increase the area.
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Ako povećamo radijus,
povećat ćemo površinu.
povećat ćemo površinu.
09:50
How do we expand our radius
of understanding about science?
of understanding about science?
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Kako da povećamo naš radijus
razumijevanja znanosti?
razumijevanja znanosti?
09:54
Here are my thoughts.
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Ja mislim ovako.
09:56
You take inventory of your own biases.
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Napravite popis svojih predrasuda.
09:59
And I'm challenging you all to do that.
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I sve vas izazivam da to napravite.
10:01
Take an inventory of your own biases.
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Napravite popis svojih predrasuda.
10:04
Where do they come from?
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Odakle dolaze?
10:06
Your upbringing, your political
perspective, your faith --
perspective, your faith --
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Iz vašeg odrastanja,
političke perspektive, vjere...
političke perspektive, vjere...
10:09
what shapes your own biases?
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Što oblikuje vaše predrasude?
10:13
Then, evaluate your sources --
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Zatim, ocijenite izvore...
10:15
where do you get
your information on science?
your information on science?
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odakle dobivate informacije o znanosti?
10:18
What do you read, what do you listen to,
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Što čitate, što slušate
10:20
to consume your information on science?
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da dobijete informacije o znanosti?
10:23
And then, it's important to speak out.
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A onda, važno je da progovorite.
10:25
Talk about how you evaluated your biases
and evaluated your sources.
and evaluated your sources.
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Razgovarajte kako ste ocijenili
svoje predrasude i izvore.
svoje predrasude i izvore.
10:29
I want you to listen to this
little 40-second clip
little 40-second clip
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Želim da poslušate
kratki isječak od 40 sekundi
kratki isječak od 40 sekundi
10:32
from one of the top
TV meteorologists in the US, Greg Fishel,
TV meteorologists in the US, Greg Fishel,
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jednog od najboljih TV meteorologa
u SAD-u, Grega Fishela,
u SAD-u, Grega Fishela,
10:37
in the Raleigh, Durham area.
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u Raleighu, iz područja Durhama.
10:39
He's revered in that region.
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Cijenjen je u tom području.
10:40
But he was a climate skeptic.
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Ali je bio skeptik oko klime.
No, poslušajte što kaže o progovaranju.
10:42
But listen to what he says
about speaking out.
about speaking out.
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10:44
Greg Fishel:
The mistake I was making
The mistake I was making
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Greg Fishel:
Pogreška koju sam činio,
Pogreška koju sam činio,
a tek sam je nedavno primijetio,
10:46
and didn't realize until very recently,
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10:48
was that I was only looking
for information
for information
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bila je što sam tražio samo
one informacije
one informacije
10:50
to support what I already thought,
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koje bi potvrdile ono što sam već mislio
10:53
and was not interested
in listening to anything contrary.
in listening to anything contrary.
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i nije me zanimalo
što kažu oni suprotnog mišljenja.
što kažu oni suprotnog mišljenja.
10:58
And so I woke up one morning,
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I tako sam se probudio jednog jutra
11:00
and there was this question in my mind,
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s jednim pitanjem u glavi,
11:04
"Greg, are you engaging
in confirmation bias?
in confirmation bias?
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"Greg, upuštaš li se ti
u sklonost potvrdi?
u sklonost potvrdi?
11:07
Are you only looking for information
to support what you already think?"
to support what you already think?"
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Tražiš li samo informacije koje
potvrđuju ono što već misliš?"
potvrđuju ono što već misliš?"
11:12
And if I was honest with myself,
and I tried to be,
and I tried to be,
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I da budem iskren sa sobom,
a trudio sam se biti,
a trudio sam se biti,
11:14
I admitted that was going on.
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priznao sam da se to događa.
11:17
And so the more I talked to scientists
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I što sam više razgovarao
sa znanstvenicima
sa znanstvenicima
11:19
and read peer-reviewed literature
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i čitao recenziranu literaturu
11:21
and tried to conduct myself the way
I'd been taught to conduct myself
I'd been taught to conduct myself
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te se pokušavao ponašati onako
kako sam naučen ponašati se
kako sam naučen ponašati se
11:26
at Penn State when I was a student,
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na Penn Stateu gdje sam studirao,
11:29
it became very difficult for me
to make the argument
to make the argument
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postalo mi je jako teško braniti argument
11:32
that we weren't at least
having some effect.
having some effect.
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da nismo imali barem nekakvog učinka.
11:34
Maybe there was still a doubt
as to how much,
as to how much,
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Možda je još bilo sumnje koliko točno,
11:36
but to say "nothing" was not
a responsible thing for me to do
a responsible thing for me to do
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ali reći "ništa" nije bilo
odgovorno od mene
odgovorno od mene
11:41
as a scientist or a person.
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kao znanstvenika ili osobe.
11:45
JMS: Greg Fishel just talked
about expanding his radius
about expanding his radius
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JMS: Greg Fishel je govorio
o proširivanju radijusa
o proširivanju radijusa
11:49
of understanding of science.
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razumijevanja znanosti.
11:50
And when we expand our radius,
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A kad širimo radijus,
11:52
it's not about making a better future,
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ne radi se samo o poboljšanju budućnosti,
11:56
but it's about preserving
life as we know it.
life as we know it.
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nego o očuvanju života kakvog poznajemo.
12:00
So as we think about expanding
our own radius in understanding science,
our own radius in understanding science,
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I dok razmišljamo o proširivanju
našeg radijusa razumijevanja znanosti,
našeg radijusa razumijevanja znanosti,
12:06
it's critical for Athens, Georgia,
for Atlanta, Georgia,
for Atlanta, Georgia,
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ključno je za Atenu u Georgiji,
Atlantu u Georgiji,
Atlantu u Georgiji,
12:09
for the state of Georgia,
and for the world.
and for the world.
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za državu Georgiju i cijeli svijet.
12:12
So expand your radius.
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Stoga proširite svoj radijus.
12:14
Thank you.
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Hvala.
12:16
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
J. Marshall Shepherd - MeteorologistDr. J. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia.
Why you should listen
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS), the nation's largest and oldest professional/science society in the atmospheric and related sciences. He serves as Director of the University of Georgia's (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program and Full Professor in the Department of Geography where he is Associate Department Head.
Shepherd is also the host of The Weather Channel’s Weather Geeks, a pioneering Sunday talk show dedicated to science, and he is a contributor to Forbes Magazine. Dr. Shepherd routinely appears on national media outlets like CNN, The Weather Channel, CBS's Face The Nation and more. He also provides expertise to NASA, NOAA, The White House, Congress and other stakeholders.
J. Marshall Shepherd | Speaker | TED.com