TEDGlobal 2017
Sara Menker: A global food crisis may be less than a decade away
Sara Menker: Globalna prehrambena kriza mogla bi nastupiti za deset godina
Filmed:
Readability: 5
1,614,570 views
Sara Menker napustila je karijeru u trgovinskom sektoru kako bi pokušala dokučiti način na koji funkcionira globalni vrijednosni lanac u poljoprivredi. Njezina saznanja dovode do iznenađujućih prognoza: "Moglo bi doći do prijelazne točke u globalnoj opskrbi prehrambenim i poljoprivrednim proizvodima ako rastuća potražnja premaši strukturnu sposobnost poljoprivrednog sustava da proizvede hranu," izjavila je. "Ljudi bi mogli umirati od gladi, a vlade bi mogle pasti." Model Sare Menker predviđa da bi takvo stanje moglo nastupiti za deset godina, da bi svijetu do 2027. godine moglo nedostajati 214 bilijuna kalorija godišnje. Nudi uvid u takvu viziju svijeta, ali i korake koje možemo poduzeti već danas kako bismo to stanje izbjegli.
Sara Menker - Technology entrepreneur
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets. Full bio
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Since 2009, the world has been stuck
0
760
3896
Od 2009. u svijetu se ponavlja
00:16
on a single narrative
around a coming global food crisis
around a coming global food crisis
1
4680
5136
jedna te ista priča o nadolazećoj
globalnoj prehrambenoj krizi
globalnoj prehrambenoj krizi
00:21
and what we need to do to avoid it.
2
9840
2440
i o tome što učiniti
kako bi se ona izbjegla.
kako bi se ona izbjegla.
00:25
How do we feed
nine billion people by 2050?
nine billion people by 2050?
3
13040
4360
Kako nahraniti
devet milijardi ljudi do 2050.?
devet milijardi ljudi do 2050.?
00:30
Every conference, podcast
and dialogue around global food security
and dialogue around global food security
4
18440
4616
Svaka konferencija, podcast i razgovor
o globalnoj sigurnosti opskrbe hranom
o globalnoj sigurnosti opskrbe hranom
00:35
starts with this question
5
23080
1696
počinje tim pitanjem
00:36
and goes on to answer it
6
24800
1736
i nastavlja se odgovorom
00:38
by saying we need to produce
70 percent more food.
70 percent more food.
7
26560
4440
da je potrebno proizvoditi
70% više hrane.
70% više hrane.
00:45
The 2050 narrative started to evolve
8
33160
2816
Priča o 2050. počela se razvijati
00:48
shortly after global food prices
hit all-time highs in 2008.
hit all-time highs in 2008.
9
36000
4880
ubrzo nakon što su globalne cijene hrane
dosegle rekordne visine 2008. godine.
dosegle rekordne visine 2008. godine.
00:53
People were suffering and struggling,
10
41440
2776
Ljudi su patili i borili se,
00:56
governments and world leaders
11
44240
1536
a vlade i svjetski čelnici
00:57
needed to show us
that they were paying attention
that they were paying attention
12
45800
2616
trebali su nam pokazati
da prate što se događa
da prate što se događa
01:00
and were working to solve it.
13
48440
1600
i rade na pronalasku rješenja.
01:03
The thing is, 2050
is so far into the future
is so far into the future
14
51760
3776
Stvar je u tome da je 2050. toliko daleko
01:07
that we can't even relate to it,
15
55560
2000
da je ne možemo ni zamisliti,
01:10
and more importantly,
16
58280
1736
a još je važnije da će nas,
01:12
if we keep doing what we're doing,
17
60040
2256
ako nastavimo kao dosad,
01:14
it's going to hit us
a lot sooner than that.
a lot sooner than that.
18
62320
2360
sustići i mnogo ranije.
01:18
I believe we need to ask
a different question.
a different question.
19
66080
3280
Mislim da si moramo postaviti
drukčije pitanje.
drukčije pitanje.
01:22
The answer to that question
20
70280
2336
Odgovor na to pitanje
01:24
needs to be framed differently.
21
72640
2560
mora se drukčije formulirati.
01:29
If we can reframe the old narrative
22
77120
2736
Ako staru priču drukčije formuliramo
01:31
and replace it with new numbers
23
79880
2456
i zamijenimo je novim brojkama,
01:34
that tell us a more complete pictures,
24
82360
2080
koje nam daju puniju sliku,
01:37
numbers that everyone can understand
25
85720
3176
brojkama koje svi mogu razumijeti
01:40
and relate to,
26
88920
1200
i predočiti si,
01:43
we can avoid the crisis altogether.
27
91320
2680
onda krizu možemo posve izbjeći.
01:48
I was a commodities trader in my past life
28
96560
2856
U prošlosti sam se bavila trgovinom
01:51
and one of the things
that I learned trading
that I learned trading
29
99440
2176
i pritom sam naučila i to
01:53
is that every market has a tipping point,
30
101640
2880
da svako tržište ima svoju
prijelomnu točku,
prijelomnu točku,
01:57
the point at which
change occurs so rapidly
change occurs so rapidly
31
105360
3576
točku pri kojoj do promjene
dolazi toliko brzo
dolazi toliko brzo
02:00
that it impacts the world
32
108960
1856
da ona utječe na cijeli svijet
02:02
and things change forever.
33
110840
1960
te se stvari zauvijek promijene.
02:06
Think of the last financial crisis,
34
114080
2600
Sjetite se zadnje financijske krize,
02:09
or the dot-com crash.
35
117800
1680
ili "dot-com" kraha.
02:12
So here's my concern.
36
120920
2320
Evo što me brine.
02:16
We could have a tipping point
37
124760
2056
Do prijelomne točke moglo bi doći
u globalnoj prehrambenoj i
poljoprivrednoj industriji
poljoprivrednoj industriji
02:18
in global food and agriculture
38
126840
2136
02:21
if surging demand
39
129000
1895
ako naglo rastuća potražnja premaši
02:22
surpasses the agricultural system's
structural capacity to produce food.
structural capacity to produce food.
40
130919
6401
sposobnost poljoprivrednog sustava
da proizvede hranu.
da proizvede hranu.
02:30
This means at this point supply
can no longer keep up with demand
can no longer keep up with demand
41
138240
4736
To znači da ponuda više
ne može pratiti potražnju
ne može pratiti potražnju
02:35
despite exploding prices,
42
143000
2256
unatoč sve većim cijenama,
02:37
unless we can commit
to some type of structural change.
to some type of structural change.
43
145280
4080
osim ako se ne posvetimo
nekakvoj strukturnoj promjeni.
nekakvoj strukturnoj promjeni.
02:42
This time around,
44
150560
1776
Ovoga puta
02:44
it won't be about stock markets and money.
45
152360
2576
neće se raditi o burzama i novcu,
02:46
It's about people.
46
154960
1376
već o ljudima.
02:48
People could starve
and governments may fall.
and governments may fall.
47
156360
3400
Ljudi bi mogli umirati od gladi,
a vlade bi se mogle rušiti.
a vlade bi se mogle rušiti.
02:53
This question of at what point
does supply struggle
does supply struggle
48
161200
4536
Pitanje do kada će ponuda uspijevati
02:57
to keep up with surging demand
49
165760
1656
zadovoljavati rastuću potražnju
02:59
is one that started off as an interest
for me while I was trading
for me while I was trading
50
167440
3656
zainteresiralo me dok sam se
bavila trgovinom
bavila trgovinom
03:03
and became an absolute obsession.
51
171120
2776
i postalo je prava opsesija.
03:05
It went from interest to obsession
52
173920
2936
Iz interesa je preraslo u opsjednutost
03:08
when I realized through my research
how broken the system was
how broken the system was
53
176880
3656
kada sam, istraživanjem, shvatila
da sustav ne funkcionira
da sustav ne funkcionira
03:12
and how very little data was being used
to make such critical decisions.
to make such critical decisions.
54
180560
4320
i da se jako malo podataka koristi
za donošenje tako važnih odluka.
za donošenje tako važnih odluka.
03:17
That's the point I decided to walk away
from a career on Wall Street
from a career on Wall Street
55
185640
4256
Tada sam odlučila napustiti
karijeru na Wall Streetu
karijeru na Wall Streetu
03:21
and start an entrepreneurial journey
56
189920
2496
i krenuti u poduzetničke vode
03:24
to start Gro Intelligence.
57
192440
1960
te pokrenuti Gro Intelligence.
03:26
At Gro, we focus on bringing this data
58
194880
3496
Tu smo usredotočeni
na prikupljanje podataka
na prikupljanje podataka
03:30
and doing the work to make it actionable,
59
198400
2256
i rad koji omogućuje
03:32
to empower decision-makers at every level.
60
200680
3000
osnažiti one koji donose odluke
na svim razinama.
na svim razinama.
03:36
But doing this work,
61
204880
1616
No, pritom smo
03:38
we also realized that the world,
62
206520
2256
također shvatili da svijetu,
03:40
not just world leaders,
63
208800
1656
i to ne samo svjetskim čelnicima,
03:42
but businesses and citizens
like every single person in this room,
like every single person in this room,
64
210480
4256
već i poduzetnicima te građanima
poput svih nas ovdje prisutnih,
poput svih nas ovdje prisutnih,
03:46
lacked an actionable guide
65
214760
2080
nedostaju izvedive smjernice
03:49
on how we can avoid
a coming global food security crisis.
a coming global food security crisis.
66
217760
4616
o tome kako izbjeći nadolazeću
globalnu krizu sigurnosti opskrbe hranom.
globalnu krizu sigurnosti opskrbe hranom.
03:54
And so we built a model,
67
222400
2016
I tako smo izgradili model
03:56
leveraging the petabytes
of data we sit on,
of data we sit on,
68
224440
2896
koji se oslanja na petabajtove
podataka kojima raspolažemo
podataka kojima raspolažemo
03:59
and we solved for the tipping point.
69
227360
2400
i riješili smo sve do prijelomne točke.
04:02
Now, no one knows
we've been working on this problem
we've been working on this problem
70
230560
3616
Nitko ne zna da smo radili
na rješavanju ovog problema
na rješavanju ovog problema
04:06
and this is the first time
that I'm sharing what we discovered.
that I'm sharing what we discovered.
71
234200
3600
i prvi put otkrivam naša saznanja.
04:12
We discovered that the tipping point
is actually a decade from now.
is actually a decade from now.
72
240200
4640
Otkrili smo da će do prijelomne točke
doći za deset godina.
doći za deset godina.
04:18
We discovered that the world
73
246280
2336
Otkrili smo da će svijetu
04:20
will be short 214 trillion calories
74
248640
4360
nedostajati 214 bilijuna kalorija
04:26
by 2027.
75
254960
1439
do 2027.
04:29
The world is not in a position
to fill this gap.
to fill this gap.
76
257440
3800
Svijet nije u mogućnosti
popuniti tu prazninu.
popuniti tu prazninu.
04:34
Now, you'll notice
77
262400
1600
Uviđate
04:36
that the way I'm framing this
is different from how I started,
is different from how I started,
78
264960
4296
da sad stvari postavljam na drugi način,
04:41
and that's intentional, because until now
79
269280
2136
i to činim namjerno, jer dosad se
04:43
this problem has been
quantified using mass:
quantified using mass:
80
271440
3216
ovaj problem kvantificirao
koristeći se masom:
koristeći se masom:
04:46
think kilograms, tons, hectograms,
81
274680
2816
razmišljate u kilogramima,
tonama, hektogramima,
tonama, hektogramima,
04:49
whatever your unit of choice is in mass.
82
277520
2080
ovisno o vašoj mjernoj jedinici mase.
04:52
Why do we talk about food
in terms of weight?
in terms of weight?
83
280280
2600
Zašto hranu izražavamo u jedinicama mase?
04:55
Because it's easy.
84
283360
1416
Jer je jednostavno.
04:56
We can look at a photograph
and determine tonnage on a ship
and determine tonnage on a ship
85
284800
3496
Gledajući fotografiju,
možemo odrediti tonažu broda
možemo odrediti tonažu broda
05:00
by using a simple pocket calculator.
86
288320
2256
uz pomoć malog džepnog kalkulatora.
05:02
We can weigh trucks,
airplanes and oxcarts.
airplanes and oxcarts.
87
290600
2760
U stanju smo izvagati kamione,
zrakoplove i zaprežna kola.
zrakoplove i zaprežna kola.
05:05
But what we care about
in food is nutritional value.
in food is nutritional value.
88
293880
4040
Ali, u hrani nam je važna
nutritivna vrijednost.
nutritivna vrijednost.
05:11
Not all foods are created equal,
89
299040
3136
Nije sva hrana jednaka,
05:14
even if they weigh the same.
90
302200
1760
čak i ako ima istu masu.
05:16
This I learned firsthand
91
304920
2456
To sam naučila iz prve ruke
05:19
when I moved from Ethiopia
to the US for university.
to the US for university.
92
307400
3000
kada sam iz Etiopije
otišla studirati u SAD.
otišla studirati u SAD.
05:23
Upon my return back home,
93
311200
2136
Po povratku kući,
05:25
my father, who was so excited to see me,
94
313360
3216
moj me otac, sav uzbuđen što me vidi,
05:28
greeted me by asking why I was fat.
95
316600
3600
dočekao pitanjem zašto sam debela.
05:32
Now, turns out that eating
96
320960
5776
Izgleda da sam se, jedući
05:38
approximately the same amount of food
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
97
326760
4856
otprilike istu količinu hrane u
Americi kao i u Etiopiji,
Americi kao i u Etiopiji,
05:43
had actually lent
a certain fullness to my figure.
a certain fullness to my figure.
98
331640
3240
malo zaokružila.
05:48
This is why we should care about calories,
99
336760
4096
Zato se trebamo oslanjati na kalorije,
05:52
not about mass.
100
340880
1656
a ne na masu.
05:54
It is calories which sustain us.
101
342560
2760
Kalorije su te koje nas održavaju.
05:58
So 214 trillion calories
is a very large number,
is a very large number,
102
346880
5816
Dakle, 214 bilijuna kalorija
ogromna je brojka,
ogromna je brojka,
06:04
and not even the most dedicated of us
103
352720
3136
a ni oni najpredaniji među nama
06:07
think in the hundreds
of trillions of calories.
of trillions of calories.
104
355880
2936
ne razmišljaju u stotinama
bilijuna kalorija.
bilijuna kalorija.
06:10
So let me break this down differently.
105
358840
2120
Stoga ću podatke predstaviti drukčije.
06:13
An alternative way to think about this
106
361880
3336
O tome možemo razmišljati
i na drugi način,
i na drugi način,
06:17
is to think about it in Big Macs.
107
365240
2856
odnosno u Big Mac-ovima.
06:20
214 trillion calories.
108
368120
2616
214 bilijuna kalorija.
06:22
A single Big Mac has 563 calories.
109
370760
3216
Jedan Big Mac ima 563 kalorije.
06:26
That means the world will be short
379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
110
374000
6216
To znači da će svijetu nedostajati
379 milijardi Big Mac-ova 2027.g.
379 milijardi Big Mac-ova 2027.g.
06:32
That is more Big Macs
than McDonald's has ever produced.
than McDonald's has ever produced.
111
380240
4000
To je više Big Mac-ova no što ih je
McDonald's ikad proizveo.
McDonald's ikad proizveo.
06:37
So how did we get
to these numbers in the first place?
to these numbers in the first place?
112
385960
4056
Kako smo uopće došli do tih brojki?
06:42
They're not made up.
113
390040
1200
Nismo ih izmislili.
06:44
This map shows you
where the world was 40 years ago.
where the world was 40 years ago.
114
392400
4816
Ova karta prikazuje svijet
prije 40 godina.
prije 40 godina.
06:49
It shows you net calorie gaps
in every country in the world.
in every country in the world.
115
397240
4016
Pokazuje neto manjak kalorija
svake države u svijetu.
svake države u svijetu.
06:53
Now, simply put,
116
401280
1456
Jednostavno rečeno,
06:54
this is just calories
consumed in that country
consumed in that country
117
402760
3016
to su samo utrošene kalorije
06:57
minus calories produced
in that same country.
in that same country.
118
405800
3056
minus proizvedene kalorije u toj zemlji.
07:00
This is not a statement
on malnutrition or anything else.
on malnutrition or anything else.
119
408880
2776
Ovo nije prikaz neishranjenosti
ili bilo čega drugog.
ili bilo čega drugog.
07:03
It's simply saying how many calories
are consumed in a single year
are consumed in a single year
120
411680
4016
Samo ukazuje na to koliko se kalorija
troši u jednoj godini
troši u jednoj godini
07:07
minus how many are produced.
121
415720
1856
umanjeno za količinu koja se proizvede.
07:09
Blue countries are net calorie exporters,
122
417600
3376
Plave zemlje su izvoznici neto kalorija,
07:13
or self-sufficient.
123
421000
1376
ili oni samodostatni.
07:14
They have some in storage for a rainy day.
124
422400
2040
Imaju zalihe hrane.
07:17
Red countries are net calorie importers.
125
425080
2816
Crvene zemlje su uvoznici neto kalorija.
07:19
The deeper, the brighter the red,
126
427920
1936
Što je crvena bolja tamnija,
07:21
the more you're importing.
127
429880
1240
više se uvozi.
07:24
40 years ago, such few countries
were net exporters of calories,
were net exporters of calories,
128
432200
4456
Prije 40 godina samo neke zemlje
bile su neto izvoznici kalorija,
bile su neto izvoznici kalorija,
07:28
I could count them with one hand.
129
436680
1572
mogla sam ih nabrojati
na prste jedne ruke.
na prste jedne ruke.
07:31
Most of the African continent,
130
439360
2096
Većina afričkog kontinenta,
07:33
Europe, most of Asia,
131
441480
2616
Europa, veći dio Azije,
07:36
South America excluding Argentina,
132
444120
2016
Južna Amerika osim Argentine,
07:38
were all net importers of calories.
133
446160
1720
bile su neto uvoznici kalorija.
07:40
And what's surprising is that China
used to actually be food self-sufficient.
used to actually be food self-sufficient.
134
448560
3620
A iznenađujuće je da je Kina nekad
imala dovoljno hrane za svoje potrebe.
imala dovoljno hrane za svoje potrebe.
07:44
India was a big net importer of calories.
135
452680
2960
Indija je bila veliki
neto uvoznik kalorija.
neto uvoznik kalorija.
07:49
40 years later, this is today.
136
457080
2360
40 godina kasnije, ovo je stanje danas.
07:51
You can see the drastic transformation
that's occurred in the world.
that's occurred in the world.
137
459960
3480
Vidite drastičnu promjenu u svijetu.
07:56
Brazil has emerged
as an agricultural powerhouse.
as an agricultural powerhouse.
138
464040
3496
Brazil je postao nova poljoprivredna sila.
07:59
Europe is dominant in global agriculture.
139
467560
3256
Europa dominira u svjetskoj poljoprivredi.
08:02
India has actually flipped
from red to blue.
from red to blue.
140
470840
2976
Indija je iz crvenog prešla u plavo.
08:05
It's become food self-sufficient.
141
473840
2256
Postala je samodostatna u pogledu hrane.
08:08
And China went from that light blue
142
476120
2456
A Kina je iz svjetlo plave
08:10
to the brightest red
that you see on this map.
that you see on this map.
143
478600
2640
prešla na najjaču crvenu na cijeloj karti.
08:14
How did we get here? What happened?
144
482280
2360
Kako smo do toga došli? Što se dogodilo?
08:17
So this chart shows you India and Africa.
145
485960
2840
Ovaj grafikon prikazuje Indiju i Afriku.
08:21
Blue line is India, red line is Africa.
146
489440
2320
Plava linija je Indija, crvena Afrika.
08:24
How is it that two regions
that started off so similarly
that started off so similarly
147
492440
4136
Kako je moguće da dvije regije
koje su toliko slično započele,
koje su toliko slično započele,
08:28
in such similar trajectories
148
496600
2136
sličnim putanjama,
08:30
take such different paths?
149
498760
2136
krenu toliko različitim putevima?
08:32
India had a green revolution.
150
500920
2040
Indija je doživjela zelenu revoluciju.
08:36
Not a single African country
had a green revolution.
had a green revolution.
151
504000
4096
Nijedna afrička zemlja nije ju doživjela.
08:40
The net outcome?
152
508120
1216
Rezultat?
Indija je samodostatna u pogledu hrane
08:41
India is food self-sufficient
153
509360
1696
08:43
and in the past decade
has actually been exporting calories.
has actually been exporting calories.
154
511080
3376
te je u posljednjem desetljeću
čak i izvozila kalorije.
čak i izvozila kalorije.
08:46
The African continent now imports
over 300 trillion calories a year.
over 300 trillion calories a year.
155
514480
3960
Afrički kontinent sada uvozi više od
300 bilijuna kalorija godišnje.
300 bilijuna kalorija godišnje.
08:51
Then we add China, the green line.
156
519280
4296
Zatim dodamo Kinu, zelena linija.
08:55
Remember the switch
from the blue to the bright red?
from the blue to the bright red?
157
523600
2680
Sjećate se prijelaza
iz plave u žarku crvenu?
iz plave u žarku crvenu?
08:59
What happened and when did it happen?
158
527120
3056
Što se dogodilo i kada?
09:02
China seemed to be
on a very similar path to India
on a very similar path to India
159
530200
2856
Čini se da je Kina bila
na sličnoj putanji kao i Indija
na sličnoj putanji kao i Indija
09:05
until the start of the 21st century,
160
533080
2776
sve do početka 21. stoljeća,
09:07
where it suddenly flipped.
161
535880
1680
kada se odjednom promijenila.
09:10
A young and growing population
162
538400
2016
Mlado i rastuće stanovništvo
09:12
combined with significant economic growth
163
540440
3096
te značajan gospodarski rast
09:15
made its mark with a big bang
164
543560
2416
doveli su do prekretnice,
09:18
and no one in the markets saw it coming.
165
546000
2480
koju nitko na tržištima nije naslutio.
09:21
This flip was everything
to global agricultural markets.
to global agricultural markets.
166
549520
3736
Taj je pomak sve promijenio
na svjetskim poljoprivrednim tržištima.
na svjetskim poljoprivrednim tržištima.
09:25
Luckily now, South America
167
553280
2816
Srećom, Južna Amerika
09:28
was starting to boom
at the same time as China's rise,
at the same time as China's rise,
168
556120
5216
počela je cvasti istovremeno
s porastom u Kini
s porastom u Kini
09:33
and so therefore, supply and demand
were still somewhat balanced.
were still somewhat balanced.
169
561360
4000
pa su ponuda i potražnja
još uvijek bile uglavnom uravnotežene.
još uvijek bile uglavnom uravnotežene.
09:38
So the question becomes,
170
566320
1400
I sad se postavlja pitanje,
09:40
where do we go from here?
171
568640
1600
kamo dalje?
09:43
Oddly enough,
172
571800
1536
Neobično,
09:45
it's not a new story,
173
573360
1200
ali to nije ništa novo,
09:47
except this time
it's not just a story of China.
it's not just a story of China.
174
575800
3376
osim što se ovoga puta
ne radi samo o Kini.
ne radi samo o Kini.
09:51
It's a continuation of China,
175
579200
2376
U Kini se priča nastavlja,
09:53
an amplification of Africa
176
581600
2096
u Africi proširuje,
09:55
and a paradigm shift in India.
177
583720
1960
dok u Indiji dolazi do promjene obrasca.
09:58
By 2023,
178
586600
1520
Do 2023.,
10:01
Africa's population is forecasted
to overtake that of India's and China's.
to overtake that of India's and China's.
179
589000
5056
predviđa se da će stanovništvo Afrike
premašiti ono Indije i Kine.
premašiti ono Indije i Kine.
10:06
By 2023, these three regions combined
180
594080
2656
Do 2023., ove tri regije zajedno
10:08
will make up over half
the world's population.
the world's population.
181
596760
3160
činit će više od polovine
svjetskog stanovništva.
svjetskog stanovništva.
10:13
This crossover point starts to present
really interesting challenges
really interesting challenges
182
601400
4016
Ta prijelazna točka donosi
zaista zanimljive izazove
zaista zanimljive izazove
10:17
for global food security.
183
605440
1736
za svjetsku sigurnost opskrbe hranom.
10:19
And a few years later,
we're hit hard with that reality.
we're hit hard with that reality.
184
607200
3400
I nekoliko godina kasnije,
ta nas stvarnost sustiže.
ta nas stvarnost sustiže.
10:24
What does the world look like in 10 years?
185
612120
3360
Kako će svijet izgledati za 10 godina?
10:29
So far, as I mentioned,
India has been food self-sufficient.
India has been food self-sufficient.
186
617120
3896
Dosad je Indija bila
samodostatna u pogledu hrane.
samodostatna u pogledu hrane.
10:33
Most forecasters predict
that this will continue.
that this will continue.
187
621040
3400
Većina predviđa da će tako biti i dalje.
10:37
We disagree.
188
625200
1200
Mi se ne slažemo.
10:39
India will soon become
a net importer of calories.
a net importer of calories.
189
627160
4136
Indija će uskoro postati
neto uvoznik kalorija.
neto uvoznik kalorija.
10:43
This will be driven both by the fact
190
631320
2256
I to stoga što
10:45
that demand is growing
from a population growth standpoint
from a population growth standpoint
191
633600
3496
raste potražnja, zbog
porasta stanovništva
porasta stanovništva
10:49
plus economic growth.
192
637120
1256
te gospodarskog rasta.
10:50
It will be driven by both.
193
638400
1256
Oba su faktora uzrok tome.
10:51
And even if you have
optimistic assumptions
optimistic assumptions
194
639680
2696
Čak i ako ste optimistični
10:54
around production growth,
195
642400
1896
oko rasta proizvodnje,
10:56
it will make that slight flip.
196
644320
2120
doći će do laganog pomaka.
10:58
That slight flip
can have huge implications.
can have huge implications.
197
646960
3920
A taj lagani pomak
može imati ogromne posljedice.
može imati ogromne posljedice.
11:03
Next, Africa will continue
to be a net importer of calories,
to be a net importer of calories,
198
651800
4536
Zatim, Afrika će i dalje uvoziti kalorije,
11:08
again driven by population growth
and economic growth.
and economic growth.
199
656360
3000
opet zbog rasta stanovništva
i gospodarskog rasta.
i gospodarskog rasta.
11:12
This is again assuming optimistic
production growth assumptions.
production growth assumptions.
200
660120
3896
I opet uzimajući u obzir optimistične
pretpostavke rasta proizvodnje.
pretpostavke rasta proizvodnje.
11:16
Then China,
201
664040
1416
Zatim Kina,
11:17
where population is flattening out,
202
665480
2576
u kojoj broj stanovništva stagnira,
11:20
calorie consumption will explode
203
668080
1976
potrošnja kalorija će drastično porasti,
11:22
because the types of calories consumed
204
670080
3016
jer će se sve više trošiti
11:25
are also starting to be
higher-calorie-content foods.
higher-calorie-content foods.
205
673120
3520
hrana bogata kalorijama.
11:29
And so therefore,
206
677600
1736
Stoga,
11:31
these three regions combined
207
679360
1856
ove tri regije zajedno
11:33
start to present a really interesting
challenge for the world.
challenge for the world.
208
681240
3296
postaju zanimljiv izazov svijetu.
11:36
Until now, countries with calorie deficits
209
684560
4096
Dosad su zemlje s manjkom kalorija
11:40
have been able to meet these deficits
210
688680
2576
taj manjak mogle nadoknaditi
11:43
by importing from surplus regions.
211
691280
1840
uvozom iz regija s viškom.
11:45
By surplus regions, I'm talking about
212
693720
2816
Pod regijama s viškom mislim na
11:48
North America, South America and Europe.
213
696560
3136
Sjevernu i Južnu Ameriku te Europu.
11:51
This line chart over here shows you
214
699720
2416
Ovaj grafikon prikazuje
11:54
the growth and the projected growth
over the next decade of production
over the next decade of production
215
702160
4296
rast i predviđeni rast za
naredno desetljeće u proizvodnji
naredno desetljeće u proizvodnji
11:58
from North America,
South America and Europe.
South America and Europe.
216
706480
2296
u Sjevernoj i Južnoj Americi te Europi.
12:00
What it doesn't show you
217
708800
1416
No, ne pokazuje
12:02
is that most of this growth is actually
going to come from South America.
going to come from South America.
218
710240
3440
da će najveći dio tog rasta,
zapravo, doći iz Južne Amerike.
zapravo, doći iz Južne Amerike.
12:06
And most of this growth
219
714640
1416
I većina tog rasta
12:08
is going to come
at the huge cost of deforestation.
at the huge cost of deforestation.
220
716080
4400
ostvarit će se nauštrb krčenja šuma.
12:14
And so when you look
at the combined demand increase
at the combined demand increase
221
722240
3776
Kad gledamo svu veću potražnju
12:18
coming from India, China
and the African continent,
and the African continent,
222
726040
3320
iz Indije, Kine i Afrike
12:22
and look at it versus
the combined increase in production
the combined increase in production
223
730200
2816
i usporedimo je
sa sve većom proizvodnjom
sa sve većom proizvodnjom
12:25
coming from India,
China, the African continent,
China, the African continent,
224
733040
2776
u Indiji, Kini i Africi,
12:27
North America, South America and Europe,
225
735840
2360
Sjevernoj i Južnoj Americi te Europi,
12:31
you are left with
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
226
739280
5416
ostaje nam manjak od 214 bilijuna kalorija
12:36
one we can't produce.
227
744720
1736
koje ne možemo proizvesti.
12:38
And this, by the way, is actually assuming
we take all the extra calories
we take all the extra calories
228
746480
3936
I to ako pretpostavimo
da sav višak kalorija,
da sav višak kalorija,
12:42
produced in North America,
South America and Europe
South America and Europe
229
750440
2381
proizveden u Sjevernoj
i Južnoj Americi te Europi
i Južnoj Americi te Europi
12:45
and export them solely
to India, China and Africa.
to India, China and Africa.
230
753880
4240
izvezemo samo u Indiju, Kinu i Afriku.
12:51
What I just presented to you
is a vision of an impossible world.
is a vision of an impossible world.
231
759200
3480
Upravo sam vam iznijela
viziju nemogućeg svijeta.
viziju nemogućeg svijeta.
12:55
We can do something to change that.
232
763520
1840
Možemo nešto učiniti da to promijenimo.
12:58
We can change consumption patterns,
233
766400
2296
Možemo promijeniti obrasce potrošnje,
13:00
we can reduce food waste,
234
768720
2256
smanjiti rasipanje hrane,
13:03
or we can make a bold commitment
235
771000
3216
ili se hrabro obvezati
13:06
to increasing yields exponentially.
236
774240
2320
da ćemo znatno povećati prinose.
13:09
Now, I'm not going to go into discussing
237
777720
2136
Neću sada govoriti
13:11
changing consumption patterns
or reducing food waste,
or reducing food waste,
238
779880
2496
o promjeni obrazaca potrošnje,
smanjenju bacanja hrane,
smanjenju bacanja hrane,
13:14
because those conversations
have been going on for some time now.
have been going on for some time now.
239
782400
3056
jer se o tome raspravlja već neko vrijeme.
Ništa se nije dogodilo.
13:17
Nothing has happened.
240
785480
1216
Ništa se nije dogodilo zato
što se u tim raspravama
što se u tim raspravama
13:18
Nothing has happened
because those arguments
because those arguments
241
786720
3456
13:22
ask the surplus regions
to change their behavior
to change their behavior
242
790200
2936
od regija s viškom traži
da promijene ponašanje
da promijene ponašanje
13:25
on behalf of deficit regions.
243
793160
2440
u ime deficitarnih regija.
13:28
Waiting for others
to change their behavior
to change their behavior
244
796880
2576
Čekati da drugi promjene ponašanje,
13:31
on your behalf, for your survival,
245
799480
2496
zbog vas i radi vašeg opstanka,
13:34
is a terrible idea.
246
802000
1496
grozna je ideja.
13:35
It's unproductive.
247
803520
1600
To nije produktivno.
13:37
So I'd like to suggest an alternative
that comes from the red regions.
that comes from the red regions.
248
805560
4720
Stoga bih predložila drugo rješenje
koje dolazi iz crvenih regija.
koje dolazi iz crvenih regija.
13:43
China, India, Africa.
249
811960
2376
Iz Kine, Indije i Afrike.
13:46
China is constrained in terms
of how much more land it actually has
of how much more land it actually has
250
814360
3296
Kina je ograničena u pogledu površina
13:49
available for agriculture,
251
817680
1536
raspoloživih za obradu zemlje,
13:51
and it has massive
water resource availability issues.
water resource availability issues.
252
819240
3776
a ima i ogromne probleme s
dostupnošću vodenih resursa.
dostupnošću vodenih resursa.
13:55
So the answer really lies
in India and in Africa.
in India and in Africa.
253
823040
3640
Stoga odgovor leži u Indiji i Africi.
13:59
India has some upside
in terms of potential yield increases.
in terms of potential yield increases.
254
827840
4936
Indija ima potencijal za porast prinosa.
14:04
Now this is the gap
between its current yield
between its current yield
255
832800
2576
To je jaz između trenutačnog prinosa
14:07
and the theoretical
maximum yield it can achieve.
maximum yield it can achieve.
256
835400
3120
i teoretskog najvećeg prinosa
koji može postići.
koji može postići.
14:11
It has some unfarmed
arable land remaining, but not much,
arable land remaining, but not much,
257
839720
3216
Preostalo je još nešto malo
neobrađenih oranica,
neobrađenih oranica,
14:14
India is quite land-constrained.
258
842960
2280
ali Indija je tu prilično ograničena.
14:18
Now, the African continent,
on the other hand,
on the other hand,
259
846240
2656
Afrički kontinent, s druge strane,
14:20
has vast amounts of arable land remaining
260
848920
3296
raspolaže ogromnim obradivim površinama
14:24
and significant
upside potential in yields.
upside potential in yields.
261
852240
2680
i ima znatni potencijal rasta prinosa.
14:28
Somewhat simplified picture here,
262
856080
2096
Nešto pojednostavljena slika,
14:30
but if you look at sub-Saharan
African yields in corn today,
African yields in corn today,
263
858200
5016
no, ako pogledate kakav je danas
prinos kukuruza u supsaharskoj Africi,
prinos kukuruza u supsaharskoj Africi,
14:35
they are where North American
yields were in 1940.
yields were in 1940.
264
863240
3480
vidjet ćete da je isti onome
u Sjevernoj Americi 1940.
u Sjevernoj Americi 1940.
14:40
We don't have 70-plus years
to figure this out,
to figure this out,
265
868600
3736
Nemamo 70 i više godina da to riješimo,
14:44
so it means we need to try something new
266
872360
2536
znači moramo pokušati nešto novo
14:46
and we need to try something different.
267
874920
2160
i nešto drugačije.
14:50
The solution starts with reforms.
268
878400
2160
Rješenje kreće s reformama.
14:53
We need to reform and commercialize
269
881880
3976
Moramo uvesti reforme i komercijalizirati
14:57
the agricultural industries in Africa
270
885880
2536
poljoprivredne industrije u Africi
15:00
and in India.
271
888440
1200
i Indiji.
15:02
Now, by commercialization --
272
890320
2136
Pod komercijalizacijom
15:04
commercialization is not
about commercial farming alone.
about commercial farming alone.
273
892480
3136
ne mislim samo na komercijalne
poljoprivredne djelatnosti,
poljoprivredne djelatnosti,
15:07
Commercialization is about leveraging data
274
895640
2576
već i na upotrebu podataka
15:10
to craft better policies,
275
898240
2296
u cilju izrade boljih politika,
15:12
to improve infrastructure,
276
900560
1616
poboljšanja infrastrukture,
15:14
to lower the transportation costs
277
902200
1856
smanjenja troškova prijevoza
15:16
and to completely reform
banking and insurance industries.
banking and insurance industries.
278
904080
4256
i provođenja potpune reforme
industrija bankarstva i osiguranja.
industrija bankarstva i osiguranja.
15:20
Commercialization
is about taking agriculture
is about taking agriculture
279
908360
3096
Komercijalizacija znači i
usmjeravanje poljoprivrede
usmjeravanje poljoprivrede
15:23
from too risky an endeavor
to one where fortunes can be made.
to one where fortunes can be made.
280
911480
4096
s prerizičnih pothvata na one
koji donose ogromnu dobit.
koji donose ogromnu dobit.
15:27
Commercialization
is not about just farmers.
is not about just farmers.
281
915600
3256
Komercijalizacija se ne odnosi
samo na poljoprivrednike.
samo na poljoprivrednike.
15:30
Commercialization is about
the entire agricultural system.
the entire agricultural system.
282
918880
4280
Odnosi se na cijeli poljoprivredni sustav.
15:36
But commercialization
also means confronting the fact
also means confronting the fact
283
924840
4056
Ali ona znači i da se moramo
suočiti s činjenicom
suočiti s činjenicom
15:40
that we can no longer place
the burden of growth
the burden of growth
284
928920
3416
da više ne možemo teret rasta prepustiti
15:44
on small-scale farmers alone,
285
932360
2120
samo malim poljoprivrednicima
te prihvatiti da komercijalne farme
i njihovo uvođenje
i njihovo uvođenje
15:48
and accepting that commercial farms
and the introduction of commercial farms
and the introduction of commercial farms
286
936600
5256
15:53
could provide certain economies of scale
287
941880
2696
mogu dovesti do određenih
ekonomskih razmjera,
ekonomskih razmjera,
15:56
that even small-scale
farmers can leverage.
farmers can leverage.
288
944600
2240
čime mogu profitirati
čak i mali poljoprivrednici.
čak i mali poljoprivrednici.
16:00
It is not about small-scale farming
or commercial agriculture,
or commercial agriculture,
289
948040
3976
Ne radi se o malim poljoprivrednicima,
ni o komercijalnoj poljoprivredi,
ni o komercijalnoj poljoprivredi,
16:04
or big agriculture.
290
952040
1856
ili o velikim poljoprivrednicima.
16:05
We can create the first successful models
of the coexistence and success
of the coexistence and success
291
953920
5256
Možemo stvoriti prve uspješne modele
suživota i uspjeha
suživota i uspjeha
16:11
of small-scale farming
alongside commercial agriculture.
alongside commercial agriculture.
292
959200
3776
između malih poljoprivrednika
i komercijalne poljoprivrede.
i komercijalne poljoprivrede.
16:15
This is because, for the first time ever,
293
963000
3016
I to stoga što, po prvi puta u povijesti,
16:18
the most critical tool
for success in the industry --
for success in the industry --
294
966040
3736
najvažnije sredstvo
za uspjeh u industriji,
za uspjeh u industriji,
16:21
data and knowledge --
295
969800
1496
podaci i znanje,
16:23
is becoming cheaper by the day.
296
971320
2240
postaju svakim danom sve jeftiniji.
16:26
And very soon, it won't matter
how much money you have
how much money you have
297
974720
3416
I uskoro pitanje koliko novca imate
16:30
or how big you are
298
978160
1456
ili koliko ste veliki
16:31
to make optimal decisions
and maximize probability of success
and maximize probability of success
299
979640
4296
neće biti presudno za donošenje
optimalnih odluka i poboljšanje izgleda
optimalnih odluka i poboljšanje izgleda
16:35
in reaching your intended goal.
300
983960
2480
za uspješno ostvarivanje cilja.
16:39
Companies like Gro are working
really hard to make this a reality.
really hard to make this a reality.
301
987320
3600
Društva poput Gro-a naporno rade
na ostvarenju toga.
na ostvarenju toga.
16:43
So if we can commit
to this new, bold initiative,
to this new, bold initiative,
302
991600
4576
Ako se možemo posvetiti toj novoj,
smjeloj inicijativi,
smjeloj inicijativi,
16:48
to this new, bold change,
303
996200
2016
toj novoj i smjeloj promjeni,
16:50
not only can we solve
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
304
998240
5416
ne samo da možemo riješiti
manjak od 214 bilijuna kalorija,
manjak od 214 bilijuna kalorija,
16:55
but we can actually set the world
on a whole new path.
on a whole new path.
305
1003680
2600
već možemo svijet usmjeriti
u potpuno novom pravcu.
u potpuno novom pravcu.
16:58
India can remain food self-sufficient
306
1006960
4096
Indija može i dalje zadovoljavati
svoje potrebe za hranom,
svoje potrebe za hranom,
17:03
and Africa can emerge
as the world's next dark blue region.
as the world's next dark blue region.
307
1011080
4760
a Afrika može postati sljedeća
tamno plava regija.
tamno plava regija.
17:09
The new question is,
308
1017240
2216
Novo je pitanje,
17:11
how do we produce 214 trillion calories
309
1019480
4136
kako proizvesti 214 bilijuna kalorija
17:15
to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?
310
1023640
4160
da nahranimo 8,3 milijardi ljudi do 2027.?
17:20
We have the solution.
311
1028760
1480
Imamo rješenje.
17:22
We just need to act on it.
312
1030960
1800
Samo moramo djelovati.
17:25
Thank you.
313
1033520
1216
Hvala.
17:26
(Applause)
314
1034760
3359
(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sara Menker - Technology entrepreneurSara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets.
Why you should listen
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a technology company that is bridging data gaps across the global agriculture sector, empowering decision makers and creating a more informed, connected, efficient and productive global agriculture industry.
Prior to founding Gro, Menker was a vice president in Morgan Stanley's commodities group. She began her career in commodities risk management, where she covered all commodity markets, and she subsequently moved to trading, where she managed a trading portfolio. Menker is a trustee of the Mandela Institute For Development Studies (MINDS) and a trustee of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). She was named a Global Young Leader by the World Economic Forum and is a fellow of the African Leadership Initiative of the Aspen Institute.
Sara Menker | Speaker | TED.com