TEDGlobal 2017
Sara Menker: A global food crisis may be less than a decade away
莎拉．曼克: 全球糧食危機可能再過十年就要發生了
Filmed:
Readability: 5
1,614,570 views
莎拉．曼克辭掉了商品交易的工作，來探究農業的全球價值鏈如何運作。她的發現導致了一些驚人的預測，她說：「全球糧食和農業可能也有一個臨界點，如果需求劇增，超過了農業系統的結構性糧食生產力，就有可能。」曼克的模型預測出這個情況可能再十年就會發生——到 2027 年，世界可能會每年短缺 214 兆卡路里的糧食。她提供了一個不可能的世界的遠景、以及一些現在就能採取的步驟，來避免這個未來。
Sara Menker - Technology entrepreneur
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets. Full bio
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Since 2009, the world has been stuck
0
760
3896
從 2009 年開始，全世界流傳著一種
00:16
on a single narrative
around a coming global food crisis
around a coming global food crisis
1
4680
5136
全球糧食短缺危機即將發生的說法，
00:21
and what we need to do to avoid it.
2
9840
2440
以及我們應該如何做來避免它。
00:25
How do we feed
nine billion people by 2050?
nine billion people by 2050?
3
13040
4360
到 2050 年時，我們要
如何養活九十億人口？
如何養活九十億人口？
00:30
Every conference, podcast
and dialogue around global food security
and dialogue around global food security
4
18440
4616
關於全球糧食保障的每一場會議、
播客（podcast）、和對話，
播客（podcast）、和對話，
00:35
starts with this question
5
23080
1696
都會以這個問題開場，
00:36
and goes on to answer it
6
24800
1736
並接著回答說，
00:38
by saying we need to produce
70 percent more food.
70 percent more food.
7
26560
4440
我們需要將現有的
糧食產量提高 70%。
糧食產量提高 70%。
2050 年這個說法始於
00:45
The 2050 narrative started to evolve
8
33160
2816
00:48
shortly after global food prices
hit all-time highs in 2008.
hit all-time highs in 2008.
9
36000
4880
2008 年糧食價格
創下歷史新高之後沒多久。
創下歷史新高之後沒多久。
00:53
People were suffering and struggling,
10
41440
2776
人們在苦難及掙扎，
00:56
governments and world leaders
11
44240
1536
政府以及全球領導人
00:57
needed to show us
that they were paying attention
that they were paying attention
12
45800
2616
得要讓我們看到他們有在留意、
01:00
and were working to solve it.
13
48440
1600
且在努力解決這個問題。
01:03
The thing is, 2050
is so far into the future
is so far into the future
14
51760
3776
重點是，2050 年還很遙遠，
01:07
that we can't even relate to it,
15
55560
2000
以致於我們不覺得切身，
01:10
and more importantly,
16
58280
1736
且，更重要的是，
01:12
if we keep doing what we're doing,
17
60040
2256
如果我們繼續現行的做法，
01:14
it's going to hit us
a lot sooner than that.
a lot sooner than that.
18
62320
2360
危機來臨的時間會更早。
01:18
I believe we need to ask
a different question.
a different question.
19
66080
3280
我認為我們需要問一個不同的問題。
01:22
The answer to that question
20
70280
2336
那個問題的答案
01:24
needs to be framed differently.
21
72640
2560
需要用不同的方式來表達。
01:29
If we can reframe the old narrative
22
77120
2736
如果我們能把舊說法重新表達，
01:31
and replace it with new numbers
23
79880
2456
並換上新的數字，
01:34
that tell us a more complete pictures,
24
82360
2080
來提供更全面的資訊，
01:37
numbers that everyone can understand
25
85720
3176
且這些數字必須要是人人能理解、
01:40
and relate to,
26
88920
1200
並感到切身的，
01:43
we can avoid the crisis altogether.
27
91320
2680
那麼我們就可以完全避免這場危機。
01:48
I was a commodities trader in my past life
28
96560
2856
我過去在做商品交易，
01:51
and one of the things
that I learned trading
that I learned trading
29
99440
2176
我從交易中學到的其中一件事，
01:53
is that every market has a tipping point,
30
101640
2880
就是每個市場都有一個臨界點，
01:57
the point at which
change occurs so rapidly
change occurs so rapidly
31
105360
3576
在臨界點，改變會發生得十分快速，
02:00
that it impacts the world
32
108960
1856
以至於對世界造成衝擊，
02:02
and things change forever.
33
110840
1960
一切就此改變。
02:06
Think of the last financial crisis,
34
114080
2600
想想最近一次的金融危機，
02:09
or the dot-com crash.
35
117800
1680
或是網際網路泡沫化。
02:12
So here's my concern.
36
120920
2320
我的擔憂是，
02:16
We could have a tipping point
37
124760
2056
全球糧食和農業
可能也有一個臨界點，
可能也有一個臨界點，
02:18
in global food and agriculture
38
126840
2136
02:21
if surging demand
39
129000
1895
如果需求劇增，
02:22
surpasses the agricultural system's
structural capacity to produce food.
structural capacity to produce food.
40
130919
6401
超過了農業系統的構造產能，
這事就有可能發生。
這事就有可能發生。
02:30
This means at this point supply
can no longer keep up with demand
can no longer keep up with demand
41
138240
4736
意思就是，在這個時點，
供應趕不上需求，
供應趕不上需求，
02:35
despite exploding prices,
42
143000
2256
就算價格飆高也是一樣，
02:37
unless we can commit
to some type of structural change.
to some type of structural change.
43
145280
4080
除非我們能致力於
某種結構性的改變。
某種結構性的改變。
02:42
This time around,
44
150560
1776
這一回，
02:44
it won't be about stock markets and money.
45
152360
2576
重點不會是股市及金錢。
02:46
It's about people.
46
154960
1376
重點會是人。
02:48
People could starve
and governments may fall.
and governments may fall.
47
156360
3400
人們可能會餓死，政府可能會垮台。
02:53
This question of at what point
does supply struggle
does supply struggle
48
161200
4536
這個問題，在哪個時點
供應會開始很難趕上需求的問題，
02:57
to keep up with surging demand
49
165760
1656
02:59
is one that started off as an interest
for me while I was trading
for me while I was trading
50
167440
3656
正是當我在做交易時
引發我興趣的問題，
引發我興趣的問題，
03:03
and became an absolute obsession.
51
171120
2776
後來完全就變成了一種著迷。
03:05
It went from interest to obsession
52
173920
2936
這個問題會從興趣變成著迷，
03:08
when I realized through my research
how broken the system was
how broken the system was
53
176880
3656
是因為我從研究了解到
這系統有多麼破碎、
這系統有多麼破碎、
03:12
and how very little data was being used
to make such critical decisions.
to make such critical decisions.
54
180560
4320
以及在做相關關鍵決策時
用的資料有多麼少。
用的資料有多麼少。
03:17
That's the point I decided to walk away
from a career on Wall Street
from a career on Wall Street
55
185640
4256
在這個時點，我決定
離開華爾街的工作，
離開華爾街的工作，
03:21
and start an entrepreneurial journey
56
189920
2496
開始走上創業之路，
03:24
to start Gro Intelligence.
57
192440
1960
創辦了「Gro Intelligence」
（全球農業資料分析）。
（全球農業資料分析）。
03:26
At Gro, we focus on bringing this data
58
194880
3496
在 Gro，我們著重在使用資料，
03:30
and doing the work to make it actionable,
59
198400
2256
並設法將資料轉變成可執行的行動，
03:32
to empower decision-makers at every level.
60
200680
3000
來協助各層級的決策者。
03:36
But doing this work,
61
204880
1616
但在做這些工作時，
03:38
we also realized that the world,
62
206520
2256
我們也發現到，這個世界，
03:40
not just world leaders,
63
208800
1656
不僅僅是世界領導人，
03:42
but businesses and citizens
like every single person in this room,
like every single person in this room,
64
210480
4256
還有企業和公民，
就像現場在座的每個人，
就像現場在座的每個人，
03:46
lacked an actionable guide
65
214760
2080
都缺少一份行動指南，
03:49
on how we can avoid
a coming global food security crisis.
a coming global food security crisis.
66
217760
4616
來指導我們要如何避免
即將發生的糧食保障危機。
即將發生的糧食保障危機。
03:54
And so we built a model,
67
222400
2016
所以，我們建立了一個模型，
03:56
leveraging the petabytes
of data we sit on,
of data we sit on,
68
224440
2896
讓我們手中數千兆位元組的資料
能發揮重要功能，
能發揮重要功能，
03:59
and we solved for the tipping point.
69
227360
2400
而我們解出了臨界點。
04:02
Now, no one knows
we've been working on this problem
we've been working on this problem
70
230560
3616
沒有人知道我們一直
在處理這個問題，
在處理這個問題，
04:06
and this is the first time
that I'm sharing what we discovered.
that I'm sharing what we discovered.
71
234200
3600
這是我第一次分享我們的發現。
04:12
We discovered that the tipping point
is actually a decade from now.
is actually a decade from now.
72
240200
4640
我們發現，臨界點其實就在十年後。
04:18
We discovered that the world
73
246280
2336
我們發現，世界將會短缺
04:20
will be short 214 trillion calories
74
248640
4360
214 兆卡路里的糧食，
2027 年就會發生。
04:26
by 2027.
75
254960
1439
04:29
The world is not in a position
to fill this gap.
to fill this gap.
76
257440
3800
世界沒有辦法補足這個落差。
04:34
Now, you'll notice
77
262400
1600
你應該有注意到，
04:36
that the way I'm framing this
is different from how I started,
is different from how I started,
78
264960
4296
我現在表達的方式和一開始不同，
04:41
and that's intentional, because until now
79
269280
2136
這是刻意的，因為目前為止，
04:43
this problem has been
quantified using mass:
quantified using mass:
80
271440
3216
這個問題一直都是用質量來量化：
04:46
think kilograms, tons, hectograms,
81
274680
2816
比如公斤、噸、百公克，
04:49
whatever your unit of choice is in mass.
82
277520
2080
任何你可以選擇的質量單位。
04:52
Why do we talk about food
in terms of weight?
in terms of weight?
83
280280
2600
我們為什麼用重量來談食物？
04:55
Because it's easy.
84
283360
1416
因為那樣很簡單。
04:56
We can look at a photograph
and determine tonnage on a ship
and determine tonnage on a ship
85
284800
3496
只要有台簡單的口袋計算機，
我們就可以憑照片，
我們就可以憑照片，
05:00
by using a simple pocket calculator.
86
288320
2256
判斷出一艘船所載的總噸數。
05:02
We can weigh trucks,
airplanes and oxcarts.
airplanes and oxcarts.
87
290600
2760
我們可以測出卡車、
飛機、牛車有多重。
飛機、牛車有多重。
05:05
But what we care about
in food is nutritional value.
in food is nutritional value.
88
293880
4040
但對於食物，
我們在乎的是營養價值。
我們在乎的是營養價值。
05:11
Not all foods are created equal,
89
299040
3136
並非所有食物都生來平等，
05:14
even if they weigh the same.
90
302200
1760
即使它們重量相同。
05:16
This I learned firsthand
91
304920
2456
我從衣索比亞搬到美國來讀大學時，
05:19
when I moved from Ethiopia
to the US for university.
to the US for university.
92
307400
3000
親身學到了這一點。
05:23
Upon my return back home,
93
311200
2136
當我返家時，
05:25
my father, who was so excited to see me,
94
313360
3216
我的父親很高興看到我，
05:28
greeted me by asking why I was fat.
95
316600
3600
他迎接我的方式是
問我為什麼變胖了。
問我為什麼變胖了。
05:32
Now, turns out that eating
96
320960
5776
結果發現，
05:38
approximately the same amount of food
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
97
326760
4856
我在美國吃的食物份量
和在衣索比亞時差不多，
和在衣索比亞時差不多，
05:43
had actually lent
a certain fullness to my figure.
a certain fullness to my figure.
98
331640
3240
但在美國我卻變得比較圓胖了。
05:48
This is why we should care about calories,
99
336760
4096
這就是為什麼我們應該考量卡路里，
05:52
not about mass.
100
340880
1656
而不是質量。
05:54
It is calories which sustain us.
101
342560
2760
是卡路里維繫著我們的生命。
05:58
So 214 trillion calories
is a very large number,
is a very large number,
102
346880
5816
所以，214 兆卡路里
是一個龐大的數字，
是一個龐大的數字，
06:04
and not even the most dedicated of us
103
352720
3136
即使是我們當中最投入的人，
06:07
think in the hundreds
of trillions of calories.
of trillions of calories.
104
355880
2936
也不會用數百兆卡路里來思考。
06:10
So let me break this down differently.
105
358840
2120
所以，讓我換種方式來分解。
06:13
An alternative way to think about this
106
361880
3336
另一種思考這個量的方式，
06:17
is to think about it in Big Macs.
107
365240
2856
是用麥當勞大麥克來計算。
06:20
214 trillion calories.
108
368120
2616
214 兆卡路里。
06:22
A single Big Mac has 563 calories.
109
370760
3216
一個大麥克的熱量是 563 卡路里。
06:26
That means the world will be short
379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
110
374000
6216
換言之，2027年，世界糧食
短缺量會達 3790 億個大麥克。
短缺量會達 3790 億個大麥克。
06:32
That is more Big Macs
than McDonald's has ever produced.
than McDonald's has ever produced.
111
380240
4000
這比麥當勞歷史上所有
製作出的大麥克總數還要多。
製作出的大麥克總數還要多。
06:37
So how did we get
to these numbers in the first place?
to these numbers in the first place?
112
385960
4056
所以，我們最初是如何
得到這些數字的？
得到這些數字的？
06:42
They're not made up.
113
390040
1200
它們不是捏造的。
06:44
This map shows you
where the world was 40 years ago.
where the world was 40 years ago.
114
392400
4816
這張圖呈現的是四十年前的世界。
06:49
It shows you net calorie gaps
in every country in the world.
in every country in the world.
115
397240
4016
它呈現的是世界各國的
淨卡路里差值。
淨卡路里差值。
06:53
Now, simply put,
116
401280
1456
簡單來說，
06:54
this is just calories
consumed in that country
consumed in that country
117
402760
3016
這個差值就是該國家消耗的卡路里
06:57
minus calories produced
in that same country.
in that same country.
118
405800
3056
減去該國生產的卡路里。
07:00
This is not a statement
on malnutrition or anything else.
on malnutrition or anything else.
119
408880
2776
這不是一份營養失調的
聲明或其他東西。
聲明或其他東西。
07:03
It's simply saying how many calories
are consumed in a single year
are consumed in a single year
120
411680
4016
它很單純就是一年內消耗的卡路里
07:07
minus how many are produced.
121
415720
1856
減去生產的卡路里。
07:09
Blue countries are net calorie exporters,
122
417600
3376
藍色國家是淨卡路里出口國，
07:13
or self-sufficient.
123
421000
1376
或自給自足國。
07:14
They have some in storage for a rainy day.
124
422400
2040
他們有些存糧，以備不時之需。
07:17
Red countries are net calorie importers.
125
425080
2816
紅色國家是淨卡路里進口國。
07:19
The deeper, the brighter the red,
126
427920
1936
紅色越深越亮，
07:21
the more you're importing.
127
429880
1240
表示進口量越大。
07:24
40 years ago, such few countries
were net exporters of calories,
were net exporters of calories,
128
432200
4456
四十年前，只有少數國家
是淨卡路里出口國，
是淨卡路里出口國，
用一隻手就可以數出來。
07:28
I could count them with one hand.
129
436680
1572
07:31
Most of the African continent,
130
439360
2096
非洲大陸大部分地區、
07:33
Europe, most of Asia,
131
441480
2616
歐洲、亞洲大部分地區、
07:36
South America excluding Argentina,
132
444120
2016
南美在阿根廷以外的地區，
07:38
were all net importers of calories.
133
446160
1720
都是淨卡路裡進口國。
07:40
And what's surprising is that China
used to actually be food self-sufficient.
used to actually be food self-sufficient.
134
448560
3620
令人吃驚的是，中國以前
是個自給自足的國家。
是個自給自足的國家。
07:44
India was a big net importer of calories.
135
452680
2960
印度曾是一個淨卡路里進口大國。
07:49
40 years later, this is today.
136
457080
2360
這張圖是四十年後的現在。
07:51
You can see the drastic transformation
that's occurred in the world.
that's occurred in the world.
137
459960
3480
你們可以看到世界上發生的劇變。
07:56
Brazil has emerged
as an agricultural powerhouse.
as an agricultural powerhouse.
138
464040
3496
巴西以農業強勢國之姿興起。
07:59
Europe is dominant in global agriculture.
139
467560
3256
歐洲支配了全球農業。
08:02
India has actually flipped
from red to blue.
from red to blue.
140
470840
2976
印度則由紅色翻盤變為藍色。
08:05
It's become food self-sufficient.
141
473840
2256
它變成能夠自給自足。
08:08
And China went from that light blue
142
476120
2456
而中國，則由淺藍色
08:10
to the brightest red
that you see on this map.
that you see on this map.
143
478600
2640
變成這張圖上最亮的紅色。
我們怎麼走到這一步的？
發生了什麼事？
發生了什麼事？
08:14
How did we get here? What happened?
144
482280
2360
08:17
So this chart shows you India and Africa.
145
485960
2840
這張圖呈現出的是印度和非洲。
08:21
Blue line is India, red line is Africa.
146
489440
2320
藍線代表印度，紅線代表非洲。
08:24
How is it that two regions
that started off so similarly
that started off so similarly
147
492440
4136
為什麼這兩個區域的軌跡
08:28
in such similar trajectories
148
496600
2136
一開始如此相近，
08:30
take such different paths?
149
498760
2136
後來卻各走各路？
08:32
India had a green revolution.
150
500920
2040
印度有綠色革命。
08:36
Not a single African country
had a green revolution.
had a green revolution.
151
504000
4096
但是非洲沒有一個國家
有過綠色革命。
有過綠色革命。
08:40
The net outcome?
152
508120
1216
結果呢？
08:41
India is food self-sufficient
153
509360
1696
印度的食物能自給自足，
08:43
and in the past decade
has actually been exporting calories.
has actually been exporting calories.
154
511080
3376
且過去十年間都在對外出口卡路里。
08:46
The African continent now imports
over 300 trillion calories a year.
over 300 trillion calories a year.
155
514480
3960
非洲大陸每年要進口
超過 300 兆的卡路里。
超過 300 兆的卡路里。
08:51
Then we add China, the green line.
156
519280
4296
接著我們加上了中國，用綠線表示。
08:55
Remember the switch
from the blue to the bright red?
from the blue to the bright red?
157
523600
2680
還記得中國由藍色變成亮紅色嗎？
08:59
What happened and when did it happen?
158
527120
3056
發生了什麼事？何時發生的？
09:02
China seemed to be
on a very similar path to India
on a very similar path to India
159
530200
2856
中國的路線似乎和印度很類似，
09:05
until the start of the 21st century,
160
533080
2776
直到 21 世紀初，
09:07
where it suddenly flipped.
161
535880
1680
它突然翻盤。
09:10
A young and growing population
162
538400
2016
中國的人口既年輕又在成長，
09:12
combined with significant economic growth
163
540440
3096
結合了顯著的經濟成長，
09:15
made its mark with a big bang
164
543560
2416
讓它非常響亮地一炮而紅，
09:18
and no one in the markets saw it coming.
165
546000
2480
市場中的所有人都沒有預料到。
09:21
This flip was everything
to global agricultural markets.
to global agricultural markets.
166
549520
3736
對全球農業市場來說，
這個翻盤極重要。
這個翻盤極重要。
09:25
Luckily now, South America
167
553280
2816
幸運的是，在中國興起的同時，
09:28
was starting to boom
at the same time as China's rise,
at the same time as China's rise,
168
556120
5216
南美洲也開始快速發展，
09:33
and so therefore, supply and demand
were still somewhat balanced.
were still somewhat balanced.
169
561360
4000
因此，供給與需求依舊
以某種方式保持著平衡。
以某種方式保持著平衡。
09:38
So the question becomes,
170
566320
1400
所以，問題就變成了：
09:40
where do we go from here?
171
568640
1600
接下來我們要往何處去？
09:43
Oddly enough,
172
571800
1536
奇怪的是，
09:45
it's not a new story,
173
573360
1200
這不是個新故事，
09:47
except this time
it's not just a story of China.
it's not just a story of China.
174
575800
3376
只不過這一次，
這並不只是中國的故事。
這並不只是中國的故事。
09:51
It's a continuation of China,
175
579200
2376
它是中國的延續、
09:53
an amplification of Africa
176
581600
2096
對非洲的放大觀察、
09:55
and a paradigm shift in India.
177
583720
1960
以及印度的典範轉移。
09:58
By 2023,
178
586600
1520
到 2023 年，
10:01
Africa's population is forecasted
to overtake that of India's and China's.
to overtake that of India's and China's.
179
589000
5056
預計非洲人口將會超過印度和中國。
10:06
By 2023, these three regions combined
180
594080
2656
到 2023 年，
這三個區域的總人口數
這三個區域的總人口數
10:08
will make up over half
the world's population.
the world's population.
181
596760
3160
將會超過世界人口數的一半。
10:13
This crossover point starts to present
really interesting challenges
really interesting challenges
182
601400
4016
在這個交匯點會開始出現
全球糧食保障方面
很引人關注的挑戰。
很引人關注的挑戰。
10:17
for global food security.
183
605440
1736
10:19
And a few years later,
we're hit hard with that reality.
we're hit hard with that reality.
184
607200
3400
幾年之後，我們將會
受到現實的當頭棒喝。
受到現實的當頭棒喝。
10:24
What does the world look like in 10 years?
185
612120
3360
十年後的世界會是什麼樣子？
10:29
So far, as I mentioned,
India has been food self-sufficient.
India has been food self-sufficient.
186
617120
3896
目前，如我剛才提到的，
印度能夠自給自足。
印度能夠自給自足。
10:33
Most forecasters predict
that this will continue.
that this will continue.
187
621040
3400
大部份的預測者推測，
這個現象會持續。
這個現象會持續。
10:37
We disagree.
188
625200
1200
我們不同意。
10:39
India will soon become
a net importer of calories.
a net importer of calories.
189
627160
4136
印度很快就會變成淨卡路里進口國。
10:43
This will be driven both by the fact
190
631320
2256
造成的原因包括
10:45
that demand is growing
from a population growth standpoint
from a population growth standpoint
191
633600
3496
從人口成長加上
經濟成長的角度來看，
經濟成長的角度來看，
10:49
plus economic growth.
192
637120
1256
需求在成長。
10:50
It will be driven by both.
193
638400
1256
兩者將都是原因。
10:51
And even if you have
optimistic assumptions
optimistic assumptions
194
639680
2696
即使你對於生產成長
10:54
around production growth,
195
642400
1896
有樂觀的假設，
10:56
it will make that slight flip.
196
644320
2120
它會造成輕微的翻盤。
10:58
That slight flip
can have huge implications.
can have huge implications.
197
646960
3920
而那輕微的翻盤
可能會有重大的意涵。
可能會有重大的意涵。
11:03
Next, Africa will continue
to be a net importer of calories,
to be a net importer of calories,
198
651800
4536
再來，非洲會持續是
淨卡路里進口國，
淨卡路里進口國，
11:08
again driven by population growth
and economic growth.
and economic growth.
199
656360
3000
也是因為人口成長和
經濟成長兩個原因。
經濟成長兩個原因。
11:12
This is again assuming optimistic
production growth assumptions.
production growth assumptions.
200
660120
3896
同樣的，這也是在對生產成長
做了樂觀假設的結果。
做了樂觀假設的結果。
11:16
Then China,
201
664040
1416
接著，中國，
11:17
where population is flattening out,
202
665480
2576
人口成長趨於平緩了，
11:20
calorie consumption will explode
203
668080
1976
消耗的卡路里會暴增，
11:22
because the types of calories consumed
204
670080
3016
因為所消耗的卡路里類型
11:25
are also starting to be
higher-calorie-content foods.
higher-calorie-content foods.
205
673120
3520
會開始變成是
卡路里含量更高的食物。
卡路里含量更高的食物。
11:29
And so therefore,
206
677600
1736
因此，
11:31
these three regions combined
207
679360
1856
這三個區域加在一起，
11:33
start to present a really interesting
challenge for the world.
challenge for the world.
208
681240
3296
開始會給世界帶來
十分引人關注的挑戰。
十分引人關注的挑戰。
11:36
Until now, countries with calorie deficits
209
684560
4096
目前為止，有卡路里赤字的國家
11:40
have been able to meet these deficits
210
688680
2576
都有辦法從生產過盛的區域
進口卡路里來補足赤字。
11:43
by importing from surplus regions.
211
691280
1840
11:45
By surplus regions, I'm talking about
212
693720
2816
我指的生產過盛區域是
11:48
North America, South America and Europe.
213
696560
3136
北美、南美、歐洲。
11:51
This line chart over here shows you
214
699720
2416
從這張折線圖可以看出
11:54
the growth and the projected growth
over the next decade of production
over the next decade of production
215
702160
4296
在接下來十年，
北美、南美、歐洲的
生產成長和預測成長。
生產成長和預測成長。
11:58
from North America,
South America and Europe.
South America and Europe.
216
706480
2296
12:00
What it doesn't show you
217
708800
1416
從圖上無法看出的是，
12:02
is that most of this growth is actually
going to come from South America.
going to come from South America.
218
710240
3440
大部份成長其實都是來自南美。
12:06
And most of this growth
219
714640
1416
而大部份的成長，
12:08
is going to come
at the huge cost of deforestation.
at the huge cost of deforestation.
220
716080
4400
背後的代價會是砍伐森林的高成本。
12:14
And so when you look
at the combined demand increase
at the combined demand increase
221
722240
3776
所以，你們看到印度、
中國、非洲大陸
中國、非洲大陸
12:18
coming from India, China
and the African continent,
and the African continent,
222
726040
3320
合併的總需求增加，
12:22
and look at it versus
the combined increase in production
the combined increase in production
223
730200
2816
也對照看到印度、中國、
12:25
coming from India,
China, the African continent,
China, the African continent,
224
733040
2776
非洲大陸、北美、南美、
12:27
North America, South America and Europe,
225
735840
2360
歐洲的合併總生產增加，
12:31
you are left with
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
226
739280
5416
最後你還是剩下了
214 兆卡路里的赤字，
214 兆卡路里的赤字，
我們無法生產出來這個量。
12:36
one we can't produce.
227
744720
1736
12:38
And this, by the way, is actually assuming
we take all the extra calories
we take all the extra calories
228
746480
3936
順道一提，這裡的假設是，我們把
12:42
produced in North America,
South America and Europe
South America and Europe
229
750440
2381
北美、南美、歐洲所有多出的卡路里
12:45
and export them solely
to India, China and Africa.
to India, China and Africa.
230
753880
4240
都只出口到印度、中國、非洲。
12:51
What I just presented to you
is a vision of an impossible world.
is a vision of an impossible world.
231
759200
3480
我剛剛給各位看的，
是一個不可能的世界的遠景。
是一個不可能的世界的遠景。
12:55
We can do something to change that.
232
763520
1840
我們可以改變這一點。
12:58
We can change consumption patterns,
233
766400
2296
我們可以改變卡路里消耗模式，
13:00
we can reduce food waste,
234
768720
2256
我們可以減少食物浪費，
13:03
or we can make a bold commitment
235
771000
3216
或是我們可以做出大膽的承諾，
13:06
to increasing yields exponentially.
236
774240
2320
讓產量成指數增加。
13:09
Now, I'm not going to go into discussing
237
777720
2136
我不打算要討論
改變卡路里消耗模式
或是減少食物浪費，
或是減少食物浪費，
13:11
changing consumption patterns
or reducing food waste,
or reducing food waste,
238
779880
2496
13:14
because those conversations
have been going on for some time now.
have been going on for some time now.
239
782400
3056
因為這類談話已經都在進行中了。
13:17
Nothing has happened.
240
785480
1216
沒有改變發生。
13:18
Nothing has happened
because those arguments
because those arguments
241
786720
3456
沒有改變發生是因為那些論點
13:22
ask the surplus regions
to change their behavior
to change their behavior
242
790200
2936
要求生產過盛的區域
為了赤字區域的利益
為了赤字區域的利益
13:25
on behalf of deficit regions.
243
793160
2440
而改變行為。
13:28
Waiting for others
to change their behavior
to change their behavior
244
796880
2576
等待別人為了你的利益、
為了你的生存
為了你的生存
13:31
on your behalf, for your survival,
245
799480
2496
而改變他們的行為，
13:34
is a terrible idea.
246
802000
1496
是個很糟的點子。
13:35
It's unproductive.
247
803520
1600
是徒勞的。
13:37
So I'd like to suggest an alternative
that comes from the red regions.
that comes from the red regions.
248
805560
4720
所以，我想提出一個
紅色區域的替代方案。
紅色區域的替代方案。
13:43
China, India, Africa.
249
811960
2376
中國、印度、非洲。
13:46
China is constrained in terms
of how much more land it actually has
of how much more land it actually has
250
814360
3296
中國受到的限制，
是能夠用在農業上的
是能夠用在農業上的
13:49
available for agriculture,
251
817680
1536
土地面積還有多少，
13:51
and it has massive
water resource availability issues.
water resource availability issues.
252
819240
3776
中國還有嚴重的水資源可得性議題。
13:55
So the answer really lies
in India and in Africa.
in India and in Africa.
253
823040
3640
所以答案落在印度和非洲。
13:59
India has some upside
in terms of potential yield increases.
in terms of potential yield increases.
254
827840
4936
在潛在產量增加方面，
印度是比較有利的。
印度是比較有利的。
14:04
Now this is the gap
between its current yield
between its current yield
255
832800
2576
潛在產量增加，是目前產量
14:07
and the theoretical
maximum yield it can achieve.
maximum yield it can achieve.
256
835400
3120
和可達到之理論最大產量間的差距。
14:11
It has some unfarmed
arable land remaining, but not much,
arable land remaining, but not much,
257
839720
3216
印度還有一些尚未
耕作的耕地，但不多，
耕作的耕地，但不多，
14:14
India is quite land-constrained.
258
842960
2280
印度的土地還蠻受限的。
14:18
Now, the African continent,
on the other hand,
on the other hand,
259
846240
2656
另一方面，非洲大陸
14:20
has vast amounts of arable land remaining
260
848920
3296
就仍然有大量的耕地，
14:24
and significant
upside potential in yields.
upside potential in yields.
261
852240
2680
且潛在產量方面也很明顯是有利的。
14:28
Somewhat simplified picture here,
262
856080
2096
這是簡化描述的情況，
14:30
but if you look at sub-Saharan
African yields in corn today,
African yields in corn today,
263
858200
5016
但如果你們想想現今
撒哈拉以南非洲的玉米產量，
撒哈拉以南非洲的玉米產量，
14:35
they are where North American
yields were in 1940.
yields were in 1940.
264
863240
3480
和北美在 1940 年時的
產量是一樣的。
產量是一樣的。
14:40
We don't have 70-plus years
to figure this out,
to figure this out,
265
868600
3736
但我們沒有七十幾年的
時間來想出對策，
時間來想出對策，
14:44
so it means we need to try something new
266
872360
2536
這意味著，我們得要嘗試新的方法，
14:46
and we need to try something different.
267
874920
2160
我們得要嘗試不同的方法。
14:50
The solution starts with reforms.
268
878400
2160
解決方案始於改革。
14:53
We need to reform and commercialize
269
881880
3976
我們得要將非洲的農業產業
14:57
the agricultural industries in Africa
270
885880
2536
做改革並商業化，
15:00
and in India.
271
888440
1200
印度也一樣。
15:02
Now, by commercialization --
272
890320
2136
商業化的意思──
15:04
commercialization is not
about commercial farming alone.
about commercial farming alone.
273
892480
3136
商業化的重點不只是
商業性農場經營生產。
商業性農場經營生產。
15:07
Commercialization is about leveraging data
274
895640
2576
商業化的重點是發揮資料的效益，
15:10
to craft better policies,
275
898240
2296
來訂出更好的政策，
15:12
to improve infrastructure,
276
900560
1616
來改善基礎建設，
15:14
to lower the transportation costs
277
902200
1856
來降低交通運輸成本，
15:16
and to completely reform
banking and insurance industries.
banking and insurance industries.
278
904080
4256
來完全改革銀行業和保險業。
15:20
Commercialization
is about taking agriculture
is about taking agriculture
279
908360
3096
商業化的重點是把農業
從太冒險的努力嘗試，
帶到可以致富的努力嘗試。
帶到可以致富的努力嘗試。
15:23
from too risky an endeavor
to one where fortunes can be made.
to one where fortunes can be made.
280
911480
4096
15:27
Commercialization
is not about just farmers.
is not about just farmers.
281
915600
3256
商業化不只和農夫有關。
15:30
Commercialization is about
the entire agricultural system.
the entire agricultural system.
282
918880
4280
商業化與整個農業系統有關。
15:36
But commercialization
also means confronting the fact
also means confronting the fact
283
924840
4056
但，商業化的重點也意味著
要去正視一個事實：
要去正視一個事實：
15:40
that we can no longer place
the burden of growth
the burden of growth
284
928920
3416
我們不再把成長的重擔僅僅放在
15:44
on small-scale farmers alone,
285
932360
2120
小規模農夫的肩膀上，
15:48
and accepting that commercial farms
and the introduction of commercial farms
and the introduction of commercial farms
286
936600
5256
且接受商業化農田
以及推行商業化農田
以及推行商業化農田
15:53
could provide certain economies of scale
287
941880
2696
可提供某種經濟規模，
是即使小規模農夫也可以發揮的。
15:56
that even small-scale
farmers can leverage.
farmers can leverage.
288
944600
2240
16:00
It is not about small-scale farming
or commercial agriculture,
or commercial agriculture,
289
948040
3976
重點不是小規模農場經營
或是商業化農業，
或是商業化農業，
16:04
or big agriculture.
290
952040
1856
或大型農業。
16:05
We can create the first successful models
of the coexistence and success
of the coexistence and success
291
953920
5256
我們能夠開先例，創造出
小規模農場經營與商業化農業
小規模農場經營與商業化農業
16:11
of small-scale farming
alongside commercial agriculture.
alongside commercial agriculture.
292
959200
3776
共存與成功的圓滿模型。
16:15
This is because, for the first time ever,
293
963000
3016
這是因為，有史以來第一次，
16:18
the most critical tool
for success in the industry --
for success in the industry --
294
966040
3736
在業界要成功，最關鍵的工具──
16:21
data and knowledge --
295
969800
1496
資料與知識──
16:23
is becoming cheaper by the day.
296
971320
2240
隨日子變得越來越便宜。
16:26
And very soon, it won't matter
how much money you have
how much money you have
297
974720
3416
不用多久，你有多少錢
或是你有多大，
或是你有多大，
16:30
or how big you are
298
978160
1456
就都不重要了，
16:31
to make optimal decisions
and maximize probability of success
and maximize probability of success
299
979640
4296
不用這些也可以做出最理想的決策，
將成功的可能性最大化，
將成功的可能性最大化，
16:35
in reaching your intended goal.
300
983960
2480
來達到你想要達到的目標。
16:39
Companies like Gro are working
really hard to make this a reality.
really hard to make this a reality.
301
987320
3600
像 Gro 這樣的公司，
非常努力在實現這件事。
非常努力在實現這件事。
16:43
So if we can commit
to this new, bold initiative,
to this new, bold initiative,
302
991600
4576
如果我們能夠承諾去做
這個新的、大膽的計畫，
這個新的、大膽的計畫，
16:48
to this new, bold change,
303
996200
2016
這個新的、大膽的改變，
16:50
not only can we solve
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
304
998240
5416
我們不但能夠解決先前提到的
214 兆差額問題，
214 兆差額問題，
16:55
but we can actually set the world
on a whole new path.
on a whole new path.
305
1003680
2600
還能夠把世界引領到
一條全新的路上。
一條全新的路上。
16:58
India can remain food self-sufficient
306
1006960
4096
印度可以維持食物能夠自給自足，
17:03
and Africa can emerge
as the world's next dark blue region.
as the world's next dark blue region.
307
1011080
4760
非洲可以以「世界下一個
深藍色區域」之姿興起。
深藍色區域」之姿興起。
17:09
The new question is,
308
1017240
2216
新的問題是：
17:11
how do we produce 214 trillion calories
309
1019480
4136
到 2027 年，我們要如何
生產出 214 兆卡路里，
生產出 214 兆卡路里，
來養活 83 億人？
17:15
to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?
310
1023640
4160
17:20
We have the solution.
311
1028760
1480
我們有解決方案。
17:22
We just need to act on it.
312
1030960
1800
我們只需要採取行動。
17:25
Thank you.
313
1033520
1216
謝謝。
17:26
(Applause)
314
1034760
3359
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sara Menker - Technology entrepreneurSara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets.
Why you should listen
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a technology company that is bridging data gaps across the global agriculture sector, empowering decision makers and creating a more informed, connected, efficient and productive global agriculture industry.
Prior to founding Gro, Menker was a vice president in Morgan Stanley's commodities group. She began her career in commodities risk management, where she covered all commodity markets, and she subsequently moved to trading, where she managed a trading portfolio. Menker is a trustee of the Mandela Institute For Development Studies (MINDS) and a trustee of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). She was named a Global Young Leader by the World Economic Forum and is a fellow of the African Leadership Initiative of the Aspen Institute.
Sara Menker | Speaker | TED.com