TEDGlobal 2017
Sara Menker: A global food crisis may be less than a decade away
莎拉·蒙克尔: 全球粮食危机可能在下个10年来临
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莎拉·蒙克尔离开商品贸易行业，想弄清楚全球农业价值链到底是如何运作的。她的发现揭示了一些非常惊人的预测：“如果大幅增长的粮食需求，超过了农业系统生产粮食的上限，那我们在全球粮食和农业市场会遇到一个转折点，”她说。“人们会遭遇饥饿，政府会垮台。”蒙克尔的模型预测这种情况可能会在10年内发生，到2027年，全球每年的卡路里缺口将达到214万亿。她描述了这个无解的世界，同时也解释了我们可以采取的措施来避免它的发生。
Sara Menker - Technology entrepreneur
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets. Full bio
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Since 2009, the world has been stuck
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从2009年开始，
全世界都在讨论一个话题，
全世界都在讨论一个话题，
00:16
on a single narrative
around a coming global food crisis
around a coming global food crisis
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就是即将来临的全球粮食危机，
00:21
and what we need to do to avoid it.
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以及我们应该怎么来避免它。
00:25
How do we feed
nine billion people by 2050?
nine billion people by 2050?
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到2050年，我们
怎么来养活90亿人口？
怎么来养活90亿人口？
00:30
Every conference, podcast
and dialogue around global food security
and dialogue around global food security
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关于全球粮食危机的每一场会议，
每一期博客，每一场对话
每一期博客，每一场对话
00:35
starts with this question
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都会问到这个问题，
00:36
and goes on to answer it
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而答案几乎都是
00:38
by saying we need to produce
70 percent more food.
70 percent more food.
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我们需要增加70%的粮食产量。
关于2050年的这个话题，
00:45
The 2050 narrative started to evolve
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00:48
shortly after global food prices
hit all-time highs in 2008.
hit all-time highs in 2008.
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出现在2008年，当时
全球粮食价格达到了历史最高点。
全球粮食价格达到了历史最高点。
00:53
People were suffering and struggling,
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人们焦虑不安，
00:56
governments and world leaders
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认为政府和世界领袖们
00:57
needed to show us
that they were paying attention
that they were paying attention
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应该让我们相信，
他们在关注这个问题，
他们在关注这个问题，
01:00
and were working to solve it.
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并在着手解决。
01:03
The thing is, 2050
is so far into the future
is so far into the future
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但问题是，2050年离我们还很遥远，
01:07
that we can't even relate to it,
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可能跟我们都没什么关系了，
01:10
and more importantly,
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更重要的是，
01:12
if we keep doing what we're doing,
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如果我们不做任何改变，
危机会在那之前降临。
01:14
it's going to hit us
a lot sooner than that.
a lot sooner than that.
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01:18
I believe we need to ask
a different question.
a different question.
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我觉得我们应该问另一个问题。
01:22
The answer to that question
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而这个问题的答案
01:24
needs to be framed differently.
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要重新进行组织。
01:29
If we can reframe the old narrative
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如果我们换一种表述的方法，
01:31
and replace it with new numbers
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更新一下数据，
01:34
that tell us a more complete pictures,
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可能能看得更全面，
01:37
numbers that everyone can understand
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让数据简单易懂，
01:40
and relate to,
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跟每个人都有关，
01:43
we can avoid the crisis altogether.
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我们可以共同来避免这场危机。
01:48
I was a commodities trader in my past life
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我以前是做商品贸易的，
01:51
and one of the things
that I learned trading
that I learned trading
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贸易教会我一件事，
01:53
is that every market has a tipping point,
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每个市场都有一个转折点，
01:57
the point at which
change occurs so rapidly
change occurs so rapidly
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在它来临之时，变化来得如此之快，
02:00
that it impacts the world
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会影响整个世界，
02:02
and things change forever.
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带来永久的变化。
02:06
Think of the last financial crisis,
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想想最近一场金融危机，
02:09
or the dot-com crash.
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或者互联网泡沫。
02:12
So here's my concern.
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因此我担忧的是，
02:16
We could have a tipping point
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如果大幅增长的粮食需求，
02:18
in global food and agriculture
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超过了农业系统生产粮食的上限，
02:21
if surging demand
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那我们在全球粮食和农业市场
02:22
surpasses the agricultural system's
structural capacity to produce food.
structural capacity to produce food.
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也会遇到这个转折点。
02:30
This means at this point supply
can no longer keep up with demand
can no longer keep up with demand
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到那个时候，供应会跟不上需求，
02:35
despite exploding prices,
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尽管价格会上涨，
02:37
unless we can commit
to some type of structural change.
to some type of structural change.
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除非我们能从结构上进行某种改变。
02:42
This time around,
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到那个时候，
02:44
it won't be about stock markets and money.
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就跟股票市场和货币无关了。
02:46
It's about people.
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而是跟人有关。
02:48
People could starve
and governments may fall.
and governments may fall.
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人们会遭遇饥饿，政府会垮台。
02:53
This question of at what point
does supply struggle
does supply struggle
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这个具体的时间点：
供应何时会跟不上需求？
02:57
to keep up with surging demand
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02:59
is one that started off as an interest
for me while I was trading
for me while I was trading
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我在做贸易的时候，起初很感兴趣，
03:03
and became an absolute obsession.
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后来变得痴迷
03:05
It went from interest to obsession
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为什么会从兴趣到痴迷呢
03:08
when I realized through my research
how broken the system was
how broken the system was
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因为我在研究过程中发现，
整个体系是如此不完善，
整个体系是如此不完善，
03:12
and how very little data was being used
to make such critical decisions.
to make such critical decisions.
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如此重要的决定，
背后的支持数据又如此之少。
背后的支持数据又如此之少。
03:17
That's the point I decided to walk away
from a career on Wall Street
from a career on Wall Street
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于是我决定离开华尔街，
03:21
and start an entrepreneurial journey
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走上创业之路，
03:24
to start Gro Intelligence.
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成立了Gro Intelligence公司。
03:26
At Gro, we focus on bringing this data
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我们专注于数据收集，
03:30
and doing the work to make it actionable,
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并令数据具有可操作性，
03:32
to empower decision-makers at every level.
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以便支持各个级别的决策者。
03:36
But doing this work,
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但在工作过程中，
03:38
we also realized that the world,
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我们也发现这个世界
03:40
not just world leaders,
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不仅仅是领导者，
03:42
but businesses and citizens
like every single person in this room,
like every single person in this room,
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还包括商人和普通公民，
就像在座的每一个人，
就像在座的每一个人，
03:46
lacked an actionable guide
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大家都缺乏行动指引，
03:49
on how we can avoid
a coming global food security crisis.
a coming global food security crisis.
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应该如何避免即将来临的
全球粮食危机。
全球粮食危机。
03:54
And so we built a model,
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于是我们建造了一个模型，
03:56
leveraging the petabytes
of data we sit on,
of data we sit on,
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利用我们掌握的海量数据，
03:59
and we solved for the tipping point.
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我们解决了这个转折点的问题。
04:02
Now, no one knows
we've been working on this problem
we've been working on this problem
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目前还没有人知道
我们在研究这个问题，
我们在研究这个问题，
04:06
and this is the first time
that I'm sharing what we discovered.
that I'm sharing what we discovered.
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这也是我首次分享我们的发现。
04:12
We discovered that the tipping point
is actually a decade from now.
is actually a decade from now.
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我们发现，这个转折点
会出现在10年之后。
会出现在10年之后。
04:18
We discovered that the world
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我们发现，全世界
04:20
will be short 214 trillion calories
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会有214万亿卡路里的短缺，
04:26
by 2027.
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到2027年。
04:29
The world is not in a position
to fill this gap.
to fill this gap.
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目前我们还没办法填补这个短缺。
04:34
Now, you'll notice
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你们会发现，
04:36
that the way I'm framing this
is different from how I started,
is different from how I started,
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我现在描述的方式跟刚开始不一样，
04:41
and that's intentional, because until now
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我是特意这么做的，因为直到现在，
04:43
this problem has been
quantified using mass:
quantified using mass:
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我们都是用重量在量化这个问题：
04:46
think kilograms, tons, hectograms,
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像千克、吨、百克，
04:49
whatever your unit of choice is in mass.
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无论怎么选，都是重量单位。
04:52
Why do we talk about food
in terms of weight?
in terms of weight?
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为什么我们要用重量来讨论粮食呢？
04:55
Because it's easy.
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因为用起来简单。
04:56
We can look at a photograph
and determine tonnage on a ship
and determine tonnage on a ship
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我们可以仅凭一张照片，
加一个计算器，
加一个计算器，
05:00
by using a simple pocket calculator.
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就可以算出一艘船的总吨位。
05:02
We can weigh trucks,
airplanes and oxcarts.
airplanes and oxcarts.
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我们可以测卡车、飞机和牛车的重量。
05:05
But what we care about
in food is nutritional value.
in food is nutritional value.
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但真正重要的是粮食的营养。
05:11
Not all foods are created equal,
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因为即使重量一样，
05:14
even if they weigh the same.
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粮食也各不相同。
05:16
This I learned firsthand
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这一点我有亲身体会，
05:19
when I moved from Ethiopia
to the US for university.
to the US for university.
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是在我从埃塞尔比亚
到美国念大学的时候。
到美国念大学的时候。
05:23
Upon my return back home,
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当我再回老家的时候，
05:25
my father, who was so excited to see me,
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我父亲见到我非常兴奋，
05:28
greeted me by asking why I was fat.
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问我为什么长胖了。
05:32
Now, turns out that eating
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原来，尽管我的饭量
05:38
approximately the same amount of food
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
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跟我在埃塞尔比亚的时候一样大，
但是在美国，
但是在美国，
05:43
had actually lent
a certain fullness to my figure.
a certain fullness to my figure.
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这么多的食物
对我的身体而言是有点多的。
对我的身体而言是有点多的。
05:48
This is why we should care about calories,
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因此我们应该关注卡路里，
05:52
not about mass.
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而不是重量。
05:54
It is calories which sustain us.
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我们都靠卡路里支持。
05:58
So 214 trillion calories
is a very large number,
is a very large number,
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214万亿卡路里是个非常大的数字，
06:04
and not even the most dedicated of us
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可能即使是最专业的人
06:07
think in the hundreds
of trillions of calories.
of trillions of calories.
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也想象不出几百万亿卡路里
意味着什么。
意味着什么。
06:10
So let me break this down differently.
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我们换种方式来解释。
06:13
An alternative way to think about this
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我们可以把这些卡路里
06:17
is to think about it in Big Macs.
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都想象成麦当劳的巨无霸汉堡。
06:20
214 trillion calories.
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214万亿卡路里。
06:22
A single Big Mac has 563 calories.
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一个巨无霸是563卡路里。
06:26
That means the world will be short
379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
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也就是说到2027年，
全世界将短缺3790亿个巨无霸汉堡。
全世界将短缺3790亿个巨无霸汉堡。
06:32
That is more Big Macs
than McDonald's has ever produced.
than McDonald's has ever produced.
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这比麦当劳至今生产的
所有巨无霸还要多。
所有巨无霸还要多。
06:37
So how did we get
to these numbers in the first place?
to these numbers in the first place?
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那么这个数据最初是怎么来的呢？
06:42
They're not made up.
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不是我们编的。
06:44
This map shows you
where the world was 40 years ago.
where the world was 40 years ago.
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这张图显示的是40年前，
06:49
It shows you net calorie gaps
in every country in the world.
in every country in the world.
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每个国家的卡路里差异。
06:53
Now, simply put,
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简单来说，
06:54
this is just calories
consumed in that country
consumed in that country
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就是该国家消费的卡路里数量，
06:57
minus calories produced
in that same country.
in that same country.
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减去它生产的卡路里数量。
07:00
This is not a statement
on malnutrition or anything else.
on malnutrition or anything else.
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它并不代表营养不良或者其他指标。
07:03
It's simply saying how many calories
are consumed in a single year
are consumed in a single year
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仅仅显示1年内消耗的卡路里数量
07:07
minus how many are produced.
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减去生产的卡路里数量。
07:09
Blue countries are net calorie exporters,
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蓝色的国家是卡路里净出口国，
07:13
or self-sufficient.
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或者达到自给自足。
07:14
They have some in storage for a rainy day.
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他们还有一些储备以防万一。
07:17
Red countries are net calorie importers.
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红色的是卡路里净进口国。
07:19
The deeper, the brighter the red,
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红色越深越亮的，
07:21
the more you're importing.
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代表进口得越多。
07:24
40 years ago, such few countries
were net exporters of calories,
were net exporters of calories,
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40年前，卡路里
净出口国是如此之少，
净出口国是如此之少，
07:28
I could count them with one hand.
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一只手都能数得过来。
07:31
Most of the African continent,
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非洲大陆的大部分，
07:33
Europe, most of Asia,
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欧洲，亚洲大部分，
07:36
South America excluding Argentina,
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南美除了阿根廷，
07:38
were all net importers of calories.
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全是卡路里净进口国。
07:40
And what's surprising is that China
used to actually be food self-sufficient.
used to actually be food self-sufficient.
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令人惊讶的是中国
当时居然是自给自足的。
当时居然是自给自足的。
07:44
India was a big net importer of calories.
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印度则是一个大的卡路里进口国。
07:49
40 years later, this is today.
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40年后，时至今日。
07:51
You can see the drastic transformation
that's occurred in the world.
that's occurred in the world.
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你能看到巨大的变化。
07:56
Brazil has emerged
as an agricultural powerhouse.
as an agricultural powerhouse.
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巴西成为了农业引擎。
07:59
Europe is dominant in global agriculture.
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欧洲成为了全球农业的统治者。
08:02
India has actually flipped
from red to blue.
from red to blue.
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印度从红色变成了蓝色。
08:05
It's become food self-sufficient.
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已经可以自给自足。
08:08
And China went from that light blue
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而中国从浅蓝色
08:10
to the brightest red
that you see on this map.
that you see on this map.
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变成了这张地图上最亮的红色。
08:14
How did we get here? What happened?
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怎么会变成这样？发生了什么？
08:17
So this chart shows you India and Africa.
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这张图显示的是印度和非洲。
08:21
Blue line is India, red line is Africa.
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蓝色的线是印度，红色的是非洲。
08:24
How is it that two regions
that started off so similarly
that started off so similarly
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为什么这两个地区
08:28
in such similar trajectories
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原本的轨迹如此相似，
08:30
take such different paths?
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之后差异变得如此之大？
08:32
India had a green revolution.
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印度进行了一场绿色革命。
08:36
Not a single African country
had a green revolution.
had a green revolution.
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而没有一个非洲国家做到了。
08:40
The net outcome?
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那么产出情况呢？
08:41
India is food self-sufficient
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印度现在自给自足了，
08:43
and in the past decade
has actually been exporting calories.
has actually been exporting calories.
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而且过去的10年间
它甚至开始出口卡路里。
它甚至开始出口卡路里。
08:46
The African continent now imports
over 300 trillion calories a year.
over 300 trillion calories a year.
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现在非洲大陆
每年进口300万亿卡路里。
每年进口300万亿卡路里。
08:51
Then we add China, the green line.
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我们把中国加进来，那条绿线。
08:55
Remember the switch
from the blue to the bright red?
from the blue to the bright red?
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还记得吗？它是从蓝色
变成了明亮的红色。
变成了明亮的红色。
08:59
What happened and when did it happen?
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为什么会这样？何时发生的？
09:02
China seemed to be
on a very similar path to India
on a very similar path to India
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中国的曲线刚开始跟印度很像，
09:05
until the start of the 21st century,
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直到21世纪初，
09:07
where it suddenly flipped.
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突然开始急剧上升。
09:10
A young and growing population
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年轻又不断增长的人口，
09:12
combined with significant economic growth
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加上飞速的经济增长，
09:15
made its mark with a big bang
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导致了这样的结果，
09:18
and no one in the markets saw it coming.
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没有人预见到了这一点。
09:21
This flip was everything
to global agricultural markets.
to global agricultural markets.
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这个转折点对全球农业市场
而言非常重要。
而言非常重要。
09:25
Luckily now, South America
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幸运的是，南美洲
09:28
was starting to boom
at the same time as China's rise,
at the same time as China's rise,
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开始飞速发展的时间点跟中国一样，
09:33
and so therefore, supply and demand
were still somewhat balanced.
were still somewhat balanced.
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但它的供给和需求还是基本平衡的。
09:38
So the question becomes,
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1400
于是问题变成了，
09:40
where do we go from here?
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接下来我们会何去何从？
09:43
Oddly enough,
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神奇的是，
09:45
it's not a new story,
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这并不是一个新故事，
09:47
except this time
it's not just a story of China.
it's not just a story of China.
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只是这一次，这个故事
不仅仅关于中国。
不仅仅关于中国。
09:51
It's a continuation of China,
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而是中国事态的延续，
09:53
an amplification of Africa
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非洲事态的放大，
09:55
and a paradigm shift in India.
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印度事态的大转变
09:58
By 2023,
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到2023年，
10:01
Africa's population is forecasted
to overtake that of India's and China's.
to overtake that of India's and China's.
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预计非洲的人口数将超过印度和中国。
10:06
By 2023, these three regions combined
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到那时候，这3个地区的人口
10:08
will make up over half
the world's population.
the world's population.
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将超过世界总人口的一半。
10:13
This crossover point starts to present
really interesting challenges
really interesting challenges
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这个转折点将对全球粮食安全
10:17
for global food security.
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带来非常有意思的挑战。
10:19
And a few years later,
we're hit hard with that reality.
we're hit hard with that reality.
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几年后，我们就会面对这个严峻的现实。
10:24
What does the world look like in 10 years?
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10年后的世界会是什么样？
10:29
So far, as I mentioned,
India has been food self-sufficient.
India has been food self-sufficient.
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3896
到目前为止，像我刚刚提到的，
印度的粮食是自给自足的。
印度的粮食是自给自足的。
很多人预测这一点不会改变。
10:33
Most forecasters predict
that this will continue.
that this will continue.
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10:37
We disagree.
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1200
而我们不这么认为。
10:39
India will soon become
a net importer of calories.
a net importer of calories.
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印度很快会变成一个
卡路里净进口国。
卡路里净进口国。
10:43
This will be driven both by the fact
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原因有二，
10:45
that demand is growing
from a population growth standpoint
from a population growth standpoint
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一是需求会随着人口的增长而增长，
10:49
plus economic growth.
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1256
二是经济的发展。
10:50
It will be driven by both.
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这两点都是原因。
10:51
And even if you have
optimistic assumptions
optimistic assumptions
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即使你们对于生产的增长
10:54
around production growth,
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持有乐观估计，
10:56
it will make that slight flip.
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2120
那也会带来细微的上扬。
10:58
That slight flip
can have huge implications.
can have huge implications.
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3920
这点细微的上扬
可能会造成巨大的后果。
可能会造成巨大的后果。
11:03
Next, Africa will continue
to be a net importer of calories,
to be a net importer of calories,
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4536
接下来，非洲会继续
作为卡路里净进口地区，
作为卡路里净进口地区，
11:08
again driven by population growth
and economic growth.
and economic growth.
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3000
同样也是因为人口增长和经济发展。
11:12
This is again assuming optimistic
production growth assumptions.
production growth assumptions.
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3896
同样我们也假设生产的增长是乐观的。
11:16
Then China,
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然后是中国，
11:17
where population is flattening out,
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人口增长已经停止，
11:20
calorie consumption will explode
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1976
而卡路里的消耗却会爆炸式增长，
11:22
because the types of calories consumed
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3016
因为他们所消耗的卡路里种类，
11:25
are also starting to be
higher-calorie-content foods.
higher-calorie-content foods.
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3520
将会来源于高卡路里的食物。
11:29
And so therefore,
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1736
因此，
11:31
these three regions combined
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1856
这3个地区加起来，
11:33
start to present a really interesting
challenge for the world.
challenge for the world.
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3296
会给世界带来有趣的挑战。
11:36
Until now, countries with calorie deficits
209
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4096
到目前为止，那些卡路里不足的国家
11:40
have been able to meet these deficits
210
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2576
尚可以通过从卡路里盈余的地区
11:43
by importing from surplus regions.
211
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1840
进口食物来填补空缺。
11:45
By surplus regions, I'm talking about
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我所指的盈余地区，
11:48
North America, South America and Europe.
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包括北美、南美和欧洲。
11:51
This line chart over here shows you
214
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2416
这张图所表现的，
11:54
the growth and the projected growth
over the next decade of production
over the next decade of production
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是北美、南美和欧洲生产的增长，
11:58
from North America,
South America and Europe.
South America and Europe.
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2296
以及未来十年的增长规划。
12:00
What it doesn't show you
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1416
而从这张图里看不出来的，
12:02
is that most of this growth is actually
going to come from South America.
going to come from South America.
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3440
是大部分的增长
实际上会来自于南美。
实际上会来自于南美。
12:06
And most of this growth
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1416
而这大部分的增长，
12:08
is going to come
at the huge cost of deforestation.
at the huge cost of deforestation.
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4400
是靠砍伐森林这种巨大的代价换来的。
12:14
And so when you look
at the combined demand increase
at the combined demand increase
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3776
因此，当你整体来看
12:18
coming from India, China
and the African continent,
and the African continent,
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3320
印度、中国和非洲大陆的需求增长，
12:22
and look at it versus
the combined increase in production
the combined increase in production
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730200
2816
并将其与生产增长进行对比，
12:25
coming from India,
China, the African continent,
China, the African continent,
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2776
除了上述3个地区外，
12:27
North America, South America and Europe,
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735840
2360
还有北美、南美和欧洲，
12:31
you are left with
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
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5416
就会发现存在
214万亿卡路里的空缺，
214万亿卡路里的空缺，
12:36
one we can't produce.
227
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1736
我们无法填补。
12:38
And this, by the way, is actually assuming
we take all the extra calories
we take all the extra calories
228
746480
3936
而且这还是假设
我们把北美、南美和欧洲
我们把北美、南美和欧洲
12:42
produced in North America,
South America and Europe
South America and Europe
229
750440
2381
生产的所有剩余的卡路里，
12:45
and export them solely
to India, China and Africa.
to India, China and Africa.
230
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4240
全部出口到印度、中国和非洲。
12:51
What I just presented to you
is a vision of an impossible world.
is a vision of an impossible world.
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3480
我刚刚呈现给大家的
是一个无解的世界。
是一个无解的世界。
12:55
We can do something to change that.
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1840
我们可以改变这一点。
12:58
We can change consumption patterns,
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2296
我们可以改变消费模式，
13:00
we can reduce food waste,
234
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2256
我们可以减少浪费，
13:03
or we can make a bold commitment
235
771000
3216
或者我们可以大胆承诺，
13:06
to increasing yields exponentially.
236
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2320
呈几何级数的增加产出。
13:09
Now, I'm not going to go into discussing
237
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2136
今天我不想讨论
13:11
changing consumption patterns
or reducing food waste,
or reducing food waste,
238
779880
2496
改变消费习惯或者减少浪费，
13:14
because those conversations
have been going on for some time now.
have been going on for some time now.
239
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3056
因为类似的话题已经讨论过多次。
然而并没有什么用。
13:17
Nothing has happened.
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1216
13:18
Nothing has happened
because those arguments
because those arguments
241
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3456
因为这些争论
13:22
ask the surplus regions
to change their behavior
to change their behavior
242
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2936
是要求盈余地区的人改变生活习惯，
13:25
on behalf of deficit regions.
243
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2440
来帮助亏空地区的人。
13:28
Waiting for others
to change their behavior
to change their behavior
244
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2576
等待别人改变生活习惯
13:31
on your behalf, for your survival,
245
799480
2496
来迁就你，拯救你，
13:34
is a terrible idea.
246
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1496
并不是个好主意。
13:35
It's unproductive.
247
803520
1600
因为效益很低。
13:37
So I'd like to suggest an alternative
that comes from the red regions.
that comes from the red regions.
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4720
因此我对红色地区的国家
有一个替代方案。
有一个替代方案。
13:43
China, India, Africa.
249
811960
2376
中国、印度和非洲。
13:46
China is constrained in terms
of how much more land it actually has
of how much more land it actually has
250
814360
3296
中国因为没有更多的土地
13:49
available for agriculture,
251
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1536
可以用来发展农业，
13:51
and it has massive
water resource availability issues.
water resource availability issues.
252
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3776
而且水资源也非常有限。
13:55
So the answer really lies
in India and in Africa.
in India and in Africa.
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3640
因此只能靠印度和非洲。
13:59
India has some upside
in terms of potential yield increases.
in terms of potential yield increases.
254
827840
4936
印度在增产方面还有些潜力可挖。
14:04
Now this is the gap
between its current yield
between its current yield
255
832800
2576
目前的产量
14:07
and the theoretical
maximum yield it can achieve.
maximum yield it can achieve.
256
835400
3120
和理论最高产量间还有些差距。
14:11
It has some unfarmed
arable land remaining, but not much,
arable land remaining, but not much,
257
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3216
印度还有些未开垦的耕地，但是不多，
14:14
India is quite land-constrained.
258
842960
2280
它的土地也很紧张。
14:18
Now, the African continent,
on the other hand,
on the other hand,
259
846240
2656
而非洲大陆，情况却不一样，
14:20
has vast amounts of arable land remaining
260
848920
3296
还有很多可耕种的土地，
14:24
and significant
upside potential in yields.
upside potential in yields.
261
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2680
在产量上还有巨大的潜力。
14:28
Somewhat simplified picture here,
262
856080
2096
这是大致的情况，
14:30
but if you look at sub-Saharan
African yields in corn today,
African yields in corn today,
263
858200
5016
但撒哈拉以南非洲如今的玉米产量，
14:35
they are where North American
yields were in 1940.
yields were in 1940.
264
863240
3480
相当于北美1940年的水平。
14:40
We don't have 70-plus years
to figure this out,
to figure this out,
265
868600
3736
我们已经没有70多年
的时间来解决问题了，
的时间来解决问题了，
14:44
so it means we need to try something new
266
872360
2536
这就意味着我们要用新方法，
14:46
and we need to try something different.
267
874920
2160
要尝试不同的方法。
14:50
The solution starts with reforms.
268
878400
2160
解决问题需要从变革开始。
14:53
We need to reform and commercialize
269
881880
3976
我们需要对非洲和印度的农业
14:57
the agricultural industries in Africa
270
885880
2536
进行改革，
15:00
and in India.
271
888440
1200
将其商业化。
15:02
Now, by commercialization --
272
890320
2136
说到商业化，
15:04
commercialization is not
about commercial farming alone.
about commercial farming alone.
273
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3136
商业化并不仅仅单指耕种。
15:07
Commercialization is about leveraging data
274
895640
2576
商业化是要利用数据，
15:10
to craft better policies,
275
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2296
来制定更好的政策，
15:12
to improve infrastructure,
276
900560
1616
改进基础设施，
15:14
to lower the transportation costs
277
902200
1856
降低运输成本，
15:16
and to completely reform
banking and insurance industries.
banking and insurance industries.
278
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4256
并且彻底改革银行和保险业。
15:20
Commercialization
is about taking agriculture
is about taking agriculture
279
908360
3096
商业化就是要把农业
15:23
from too risky an endeavor
to one where fortunes can be made.
to one where fortunes can be made.
280
911480
4096
从一个高风险的行业
变成可以致富的行业。
变成可以致富的行业。
15:27
Commercialization
is not about just farmers.
is not about just farmers.
281
915600
3256
商业化不仅仅是农民的事。
15:30
Commercialization is about
the entire agricultural system.
the entire agricultural system.
282
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4280
而是关乎整个农业系统。
15:36
But commercialization
also means confronting the fact
also means confronting the fact
283
924840
4056
但是商业化也意味着
我们要面对一个事实，
我们要面对一个事实，
15:40
that we can no longer place
the burden of growth
the burden of growth
284
928920
3416
那就是我们不能把光把增产的重担
15:44
on small-scale farmers alone,
285
932360
2120
压在小农场主身上，
15:48
and accepting that commercial farms
and the introduction of commercial farms
and the introduction of commercial farms
286
936600
5256
要接受一点，就是商业化农场的推行，
15:53
could provide certain economies of scale
287
941880
2696
可以提供规模经济，
15:56
that even small-scale
farmers can leverage.
farmers can leverage.
288
944600
2240
即使小农场主也可以加以利用。
16:00
It is not about small-scale farming
or commercial agriculture,
or commercial agriculture,
289
948040
3976
不单单是小规模农业或者商业化农业，
16:04
or big agriculture.
290
952040
1856
或者大农业。
16:05
We can create the first successful models
of the coexistence and success
of the coexistence and success
291
953920
5256
我们可以让小规模农业和商业化农业共存，
16:11
of small-scale farming
alongside commercial agriculture.
alongside commercial agriculture.
292
959200
3776
建立首批成功的案例。
16:15
This is because, for the first time ever,
293
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3016
因为有史以来第一次，
16:18
the most critical tool
for success in the industry --
for success in the industry --
294
966040
3736
工业领域成功所需要的最重要的工具，
16:21
data and knowledge --
295
969800
1496
数据和知识，
16:23
is becoming cheaper by the day.
296
971320
2240
变得越来越便宜。
16:26
And very soon, it won't matter
how much money you have
how much money you have
297
974720
3416
很快，在追求成功的过程中，
16:30
or how big you are
298
978160
1456
在为达成目标而寻求最佳选择的过程中，
16:31
to make optimal decisions
and maximize probability of success
and maximize probability of success
299
979640
4296
你有多少资金不再重要，
16:35
in reaching your intended goal.
300
983960
2480
经营者的规模大小也不重要。
16:39
Companies like Gro are working
really hard to make this a reality.
really hard to make this a reality.
301
987320
3600
像Gro这样的公司
正在努力将这一切变成现实。
正在努力将这一切变成现实。
16:43
So if we can commit
to this new, bold initiative,
to this new, bold initiative,
302
991600
4576
如果我们能大胆承诺一个全新的未来，
16:48
to this new, bold change,
303
996200
2016
承诺一个全新的、巨大的改变，
16:50
not only can we solve
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
304
998240
5416
那么我们不光能解决
刚刚谈到的214万亿卡路里的问题，
刚刚谈到的214万亿卡路里的问题，
16:55
but we can actually set the world
on a whole new path.
on a whole new path.
305
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2600
我们甚至可以将世界带上新的道路。
16:58
India can remain food self-sufficient
306
1006960
4096
印度的粮食依然可以自给自足，
17:03
and Africa can emerge
as the world's next dark blue region.
as the world's next dark blue region.
307
1011080
4760
非洲可以成为世界上
下一个深蓝色的区域。
下一个深蓝色的区域。
17:09
The new question is,
308
1017240
2216
新的问题是，
17:11
how do we produce 214 trillion calories
309
1019480
4136
我们如何生产出这214万亿卡路里，
17:15
to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?
310
1023640
4160
到2027年养活83亿人？
17:20
We have the solution.
311
1028760
1480
我们已经有方案了。
17:22
We just need to act on it.
312
1030960
1800
我们只需要开始行动。
17:25
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
17:26
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sara Menker - Technology entrepreneurSara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets.
Why you should listen
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a technology company that is bridging data gaps across the global agriculture sector, empowering decision makers and creating a more informed, connected, efficient and productive global agriculture industry.
Prior to founding Gro, Menker was a vice president in Morgan Stanley's commodities group. She began her career in commodities risk management, where she covered all commodity markets, and she subsequently moved to trading, where she managed a trading portfolio. Menker is a trustee of the Mandela Institute For Development Studies (MINDS) and a trustee of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). She was named a Global Young Leader by the World Economic Forum and is a fellow of the African Leadership Initiative of the Aspen Institute.
Sara Menker | Speaker | TED.com