TED2019
Moriba Jah: The world's first crowdsourced space traffic monitoring system
Moriba Jah: Prvi skupno financirani sustav praćenja svemirskog prometa na svijetu
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"Većina onoga što pošaljemo u svemir se nikada ne vrati", kaže astrodinamičar i TED-ov suradnik Moriba Jah. U ovom nadahnutom govoru Jah opisuje svemirske autoceste koje kruže oko Zemlje i kako su većinom pune svemirskog otpada. Naučimo više o njegovoj misiji da razvije i uputi u masovnu upotrebu prvi skupno financirani sustav praćenja svemirskog prometa na svijetu - i kako bi to moglo riješiti problem otpadnih nakupina u prostoru bliže Zemlji.
Moriba Jah - Space environmentalist
TED Fellow Moriba Jah studies and predicts the motion of objects in space in an effort to make space safe, secure, and sustainable. Full bio
TED Fellow Moriba Jah studies and predicts the motion of objects in space in an effort to make space safe, secure, and sustainable. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I am an astrodynamicist --
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Ja sam astrodinamičar --
00:15
you know, like that guy Rich Purnell
in the movie "The Martian."
in the movie "The Martian."
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znate, kao onaj Rich Purnell
u filmu "Marsovac".
u filmu "Marsovac".
00:19
And it's my job to study and predict
motion of objects in space.
motion of objects in space.
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Posao mi je proučavati i predvidjeti
kretanje predmeta u svemiru.
kretanje predmeta u svemiru.
00:27
Currently we track about one percent
of hazardous objects on orbit --
of hazardous objects on orbit --
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Trenutno pratimo oko jedan posto
opasnih predmeta u orbiti --
opasnih predmeta u orbiti --
00:33
hazardous to services like location,
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opasnih po usluge kao što su lociranje,
00:36
agriculture, banking,
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poljoprivreda, bankarstvo,
00:39
television and communications,
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televizija i komunikacije,
00:41
and soon -- very soon --
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a uskoro -- vrlo uskoro --
00:43
even the internet itself.
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čak i sam internet.
00:45
Now these services are not protected
from, roughly, half a million objects
from, roughly, half a million objects
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Sve te usluge nisu zaštićene od oko
pola milijuna predmeta
pola milijuna predmeta
00:52
the size of a speck of paint
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veličine mrlje boje,
00:55
all the way to a school bus in size.
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pa sve do veličine školskog autobusa.
00:58
A speck of paint,
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Mrlja boje,
01:00
traveling at the right speed,
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putujući odgovarajućom brzinom,
01:03
impacting one of these objects,
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u doticaju s jednim od ovih objekata
01:04
could render it absolutely useless.
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mogla bi ih oštetiti
do stanja neupotrebljivosti.
do stanja neupotrebljivosti.
01:08
But we can't track things
as small as a speck of paint.
as small as a speck of paint.
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Ali ne možemo pratiti predmete
sićušne poput mrlje boje.
sićušne poput mrlje boje.
01:12
We can only track things
as small as say, a smartphone.
as small as say, a smartphone.
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Možemo pratiti samo stvari
veličine, primjerice, mobitela.
veličine, primjerice, mobitela.
01:17
So of this half million objects
that we should be concerned about,
that we should be concerned about,
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Od tih pola milijuna predmeta
koji bi nas trebali zabrinjavati,
koji bi nas trebali zabrinjavati,
01:22
we can only track
about 26,000 of these objects.
about 26,000 of these objects.
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možemo pratiti samo oko
26 000 tih predmeta.
26 000 tih predmeta.
01:26
And of these 26,000,
only 2,000 actually work.
only 2,000 actually work.
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A od tih 26 000
samo 2000 doista funkcioniraju.
samo 2000 doista funkcioniraju.
01:33
Everything else
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Sve ostalo
01:35
is garbage.
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je smeće.
01:38
That's a lot of garbage.
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To je puno smeća.
01:40
To make things a little bit worse,
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Da još pogoršamo situaciju,
01:43
most of what we launch into orbit
never comes back.
never comes back.
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većina toga što pošaljemo u orbitu
nikada se ne vrati.
nikada se ne vrati.
01:49
We send the satellite in orbit,
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Pošaljemo satelit u orbitu,
01:52
it stops working, it runs out of fuel,
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pokvari se, ostane bez goriva,
01:55
and we send something else up ...
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a mi pošaljemo gore nešto drugo...
01:57
and then we send up something else ...
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pa zatim nešto drugo...
02:00
and then something else.
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pa još nešto drugo.
02:01
And every once in a while,
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Prije ili kasnije
02:03
two of these things
will collide with each other
will collide with each other
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dva takva predmeta se sudare
02:05
or one of these things will explode,
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ili jedan od njih eksplodira,
02:07
or even worse,
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ili još gore,
02:08
somebody might just happen to destroy
one of their satellites on orbit,
one of their satellites on orbit,
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netko slučajno uništi
svoje satelite u orbiti,
svoje satelite u orbiti,
02:13
and this generates many, many more pieces,
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što stvara još puno, puno sitnih komada
02:17
most of which also never come back.
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od kojih se većina također nikad ne vrati.
02:20
Now these things are not
just randomly scattered in orbit.
just randomly scattered in orbit.
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Ti predmeti nisu samo proizvoljno
razbacani po orbiti.
razbacani po orbiti.
02:25
It turns out that given
the curvature of space-time,
the curvature of space-time,
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Ispostavlja se da, uzmemo li u
obzir prostorno-vremensku strukturu,
obzir prostorno-vremensku strukturu,
02:28
there are ideal locations
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postoje idealne lokacije
02:30
where we put some of these satellites --
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gdje postavljamo satelite --
02:32
think of these as space highways.
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zamislite to kao svemirske autoceste.
02:37
Very much like highways on earth,
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Baš poput autocesta na Zemlji,
02:39
these space highways can only take up
a maximum capacity of traffic
a maximum capacity of traffic
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te autoceste mogu primiti
određeni kapacitet prometa
određeni kapacitet prometa
02:44
to sustain space-safe operations.
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kako bi funkcionirale na sigurnoj razini.
02:49
Unlike highways on earth,
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Za razliku od autocesta na Zemlji,
02:51
there are actually no space traffic rules.
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svemirska prometna pravila
doslovno ne postoje.
doslovno ne postoje.
02:53
None whatsoever, OK?
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Nikakvih, OK?
02:57
Wow.
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Wow.
03:00
What could possibly go wrong with that?
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Što bi tu moglo uopće poći po zlu?
03:02
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:04
Now, what would be really nice
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Stoga bi bilo vrlo lijepo
03:06
is if we had something
like a space traffic map,
like a space traffic map,
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kad bismo imali nešto poput
svemirske karte prometa,
svemirske karte prometa,
03:10
like a Waze for space that I could look up
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kao Waze aplikacije za svemir,
gdje bih mogao pogledati
gdje bih mogao pogledati
03:13
and see what the current
traffic conditions are in space,
traffic conditions are in space,
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i vidjeti trenutne prometne
uvjete u svemiru,
uvjete u svemiru,
03:16
maybe even predict these.
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možda ih čak i predvidjeti.
03:17
The problem with that, however,
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Međutim, problem u tome je
03:19
is that ask five different people,
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ako pitate petero različitih ljudi,
03:24
"What's going on in orbit?
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"Što se događa u orbiti?",
03:25
Where are things going?"
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"Kamo odlaze predmeti?",
03:27
and you're probably going to get
10 different answers.
10 different answers.
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vjerojatno ćete dobiti
10 različitih odgovora.
10 različitih odgovora.
03:29
Why is that?
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Zašto?
03:31
It's because information about things
on orbit is not commonly shared either.
on orbit is not commonly shared either.
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Zato što podaci o predmetima u orbiti
nisu javno dostupni.
nisu javno dostupni.
03:37
So what if we had a globally accessible,
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Što ako bismo imali
globalno dostupan,
globalno dostupan,
03:39
open and transparent
space traffic information system
space traffic information system
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otvoren i transparentan sustav
svemirskog prometa
svemirskog prometa
03:43
that can inform the public
of where everything is located
of where everything is located
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koji bi informirao javnost o
lokaciji svakog predmeta,
lokaciji svakog predmeta,
03:46
to try to keep space safe and sustainable?
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kako bismo pokušali svemir učiniti
sigurnim i održivim?
sigurnim i održivim?
03:49
And what if the system could be used
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I što ako bi se taj sustav moglo koristiti
03:52
to form evidence-based
norms of behavior --
norms of behavior --
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kako bismo oblikovali norme ponašanja
zasnovane na dokazima --
zasnovane na dokazima --
03:55
these space traffic rules?
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ta svemirska prometna pravila?
03:57
So I developed ASTRIAGraph,
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Zato sam razvio ASTRIAGraph,
04:00
the world's first crowdsourced,
space traffic monitoring system
space traffic monitoring system
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prvi svjetski skupno financirani
sustav praćenja svemirskog prometa
sustav praćenja svemirskog prometa
04:03
at the University of Texas at Austin.
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na Sveučilištu Teksas u Austinu.
04:06
ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources
of information from around the globe --
of information from around the globe --
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ASTRIAGraph kombinira više izvora
podataka iz cijelog svijeta --
podataka iz cijelog svijeta --
04:12
government, industry and academia --
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vlade, industrije i akademije --
04:13
and represents this in a common framework
that anybody can access today.
that anybody can access today.
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i predstavlja zajednički okvir kojemu
danas bilo tko može pristupiti.
danas bilo tko može pristupiti.
04:19
Here, you can see 26,000 objects
orbiting the earth,
orbiting the earth,
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Ovdje možete vidjeti 26 000 predmeta
kako kruže oko Zemlje,
kako kruže oko Zemlje,
04:23
multiple opinions,
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brojna mišljenja,
04:25
and it gets updated in near real time.
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a podaci se očitavaju u stvarnom vremenu.
04:28
But back to my problem
of space traffic map:
of space traffic map:
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Ali vratimo se na moj problem
karte svemirskog prometa.
karte svemirskog prometa.
04:32
What if you only had information
from the US government?
from the US government?
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Što ako podatke dobivate jedino
od američke vlade?
od američke vlade?
04:36
Well, in that case, that's what
your space traffic map would look like.
your space traffic map would look like.
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U tom slučaju, vaša karta svemirskog
prometa bi izgledala ovako.
prometa bi izgledala ovako.
04:39
But what do the Russians think?
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Ali što Rusi misle?
04:45
That looks significantly different.
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Ovo izgleda znatno drugačije.
04:47
Who's right? Who's wrong?
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Tko je u pravu? Tko je u krivu?
04:50
What should I believe?
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U što bih trebao vjerovati?
04:51
What could I trust?
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Čemu mogu vjerovati?
04:52
This is part of the issue.
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To je dio problema.
04:55
In the absence of this framework
to monitor space-actor behavior,
to monitor space-actor behavior,
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U nedostatku takvog okvira za
praćenje ponašanja svemirskih igrača,
praćenje ponašanja svemirskih igrača,
05:03
to monitor activity in space --
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nedostatku promatranja
aktivnosti u svemiru --
aktivnosti u svemiru --
05:05
where these objects are located --
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gdje su ovi predmeti locirani --
05:07
to reconcile these inconsistencies
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izbjegavanjem pomirenja ovih nejasnoća
05:10
and make this knowledge commonplace,
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i nečinjenjem tog znanja sveopćim,
05:12
we actually risk losing the ability
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zapravo riskiramo izgubiti mogućnost
05:17
to use space for humanity's benefit.
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da koristimo svemir
za dobrobit čovječanstva.
za dobrobit čovječanstva.
05:22
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
05:23
(Applause and cheers)
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(Pljesak i navijanje)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Moriba Jah - Space environmentalistTED Fellow Moriba Jah studies and predicts the motion of objects in space in an effort to make space safe, secure, and sustainable.
Why you should listen
All kinds of junk are floating around in space -- old satellites, rockets, other man-made debris -- that pose an increasing danger to space missions. Astrodynamicist Moriba Jah monitors this orbital debris with ASTRIAGraph, a software that tracks the positions and speeds of objects in Earth’s orbit. Jah's vision is for AstriaGraph to become a crowd-sourced citizen-science platform that will make information about space traffic openly available to future generations. His ultimate goal is to make space safe, secure and sustainable.
Moriba Jah | Speaker | TED.com