TED2019
Moriba Jah: The world's first crowdsourced space traffic monitoring system
莫里巴•亞: 世上首樁群眾外包的太空交通監控系統
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天體動力學家和 TED 研究員莫里巴•亞說：「我們送上外太空的大部分東西永遠不會回地球。」 在這個思維前瞻的演講中，他描述繞地球飛行的太空高速公路如何充滿著太空垃圾，因此他致力於開發擴展這項世上首樁群眾外包的太空交通監控系統。一同來了解他的探索歷程，以及這個系統如何有助解決近地太空垃圾的問題。
Moriba Jah - Space environmentalist
TED Fellow Moriba Jah studies and predicts the motion of objects in space in an effort to make space safe, secure, and sustainable. Full bio
TED Fellow Moriba Jah studies and predicts the motion of objects in space in an effort to make space safe, secure, and sustainable. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I am an astrodynamicist --
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我是個天體動力學家，
00:15
you know, like that guy Rich Purnell
in the movie "The Martian."
in the movie "The Martian."
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就像電影《絕地救援》中的
李察·普奈爾。
李察·普奈爾。
00:19
And it's my job to study and predict
motion of objects in space.
motion of objects in space.
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我研究和預測物體在太空中的運動。
00:27
Currently we track about one percent
of hazardous objects on orbit --
of hazardous objects on orbit --
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目前我們追蹤大約 1％
在軌道上的危險物體，
在軌道上的危險物體，
00:33
hazardous to services like location,
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它們會危害衛星定位、
農業、銀行、
00:36
agriculture, banking,
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00:39
television and communications,
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電視和通信等服務，
00:41
and soon -- very soon --
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很快也會危害到網際網路本身。
00:43
even the internet itself.
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00:45
Now these services are not protected
from, roughly, half a million objects
from, roughly, half a million objects
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這些服務也許會
被大約五十萬種物品危害，
被大約五十萬種物品危害，
這些東西的大小可能從一滴油漆
00:52
the size of a speck of paint
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到一台校車。
00:55
all the way to a school bus in size.
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00:58
A speck of paint,
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如果一點漆的行進速度恰好，
01:00
traveling at the right speed,
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它撞上其中的任一物體
01:03
impacting one of these objects,
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01:04
could render it absolutely useless.
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都可能令其作廢。
01:08
But we can't track things
as small as a speck of paint.
as small as a speck of paint.
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但我們無法追蹤
像油漆這樣小的東西，
像油漆這樣小的東西，
01:12
We can only track things
as small as say, a smartphone.
as small as say, a smartphone.
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只能追蹤像智慧手機
這樣大小的東西。
這樣大小的東西。
01:17
So of this half million objects
that we should be concerned about,
that we should be concerned about,
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因此在應該注意的五十萬個對象中，
01:22
we can only track
about 26,000 of these objects.
about 26,000 of these objects.
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我們只能追蹤其中大約兩萬六千個，
01:26
And of these 26,000,
only 2,000 actually work.
only 2,000 actually work.
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而這兩萬六千個當中
只有兩千個仍有作用。
只有兩千個仍有作用。
01:33
Everything else
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其他一切都是垃圾。
01:35
is garbage.
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01:38
That's a lot of garbage.
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很多垃圾。
01:40
To make things a little bit worse,
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更糟的是
01:43
most of what we launch into orbit
never comes back.
never comes back.
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我們射上軌道的大部分東西
不會回地球。
01:49
We send the satellite in orbit,
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我們將衛星送入軌道，
01:52
it stops working, it runs out of fuel,
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它壞了或燃料耗盡了，
01:55
and we send something else up ...
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我們就發射其他的......
01:57
and then we send up something else ...
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再發射其他的......
02:00
and then something else.
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又再發射其他的。
02:01
And every once in a while,
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每隔一段時間，
02:03
two of these things
will collide with each other
will collide with each other
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有些可能會相撞
02:05
or one of these things will explode,
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或爆炸；
02:07
or even worse,
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甚至更糟糕的是
02:08
somebody might just happen to destroy
one of their satellites on orbit,
one of their satellites on orbit,
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軌道上的衛星被人摧毀，
02:13
and this generates many, many more pieces,
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產生更多的碎片，
02:17
most of which also never come back.
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大部分永遠不會回到地面上。
02:20
Now these things are not
just randomly scattered in orbit.
just randomly scattered in orbit.
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這些東西不僅隨機散落在軌道中；
02:25
It turns out that given
the curvature of space-time,
the curvature of space-time,
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根據時空的曲率，
02:28
there are ideal locations
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存在著一些放置衛星的理想位置，
02:30
where we put some of these satellites --
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02:32
think of these as space highways.
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可將其視為太空公路。
02:37
Very much like highways on earth,
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這些太空公路非常像
地球上的高速公路，
地球上的高速公路，
02:39
these space highways can only take up
a maximum capacity of traffic
a maximum capacity of traffic
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它們佔用最大的交通容量
以安全地維持太空營運。
02:44
to sustain space-safe operations.
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02:49
Unlike highways on earth,
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但它與地球上的高速公路不同，
02:51
there are actually no space traffic rules.
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它們沒有實際的太空交通規則。
02:53
None whatsoever, OK?
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沒有，知道嗎？
02:57
Wow.
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哇。
03:00
What could possibly go wrong with that?
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能出什麼差錯呢？
03:02
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:04
Now, what would be really nice
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如果我們有太空的交通地圖就很棒，
03:06
is if we had something
like a space traffic map,
like a space traffic map,
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03:10
like a Waze for space that I could look up
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就像我可以查太空版的位智（Waze），
03:13
and see what the current
traffic conditions are in space,
traffic conditions are in space,
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看看當前的太空交通狀況，
03:16
maybe even predict these.
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甚至還可以預測交通。
03:17
The problem with that, however,
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然而問題是
03:19
is that ask five different people,
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問五個不同的人：
03:24
"What's going on in orbit?
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「軌道上發生了什麼事？在哪裡？」
03:25
Where are things going?"
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03:27
and you're probably going to get
10 different answers.
10 different answers.
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可能會得到十個不同的答案。
03:29
Why is that?
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為什麼呢？
03:31
It's because information about things
on orbit is not commonly shared either.
on orbit is not commonly shared either.
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是因為軌道上物體的
相關訊息沒被共享。
相關訊息沒被共享。
03:37
So what if we had a globally accessible,
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那麼，如果我們有個
可供全球讀取、開放和透明的
太空交通訊息系統，
太空交通訊息系統，
03:39
open and transparent
space traffic information system
space traffic information system
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03:43
that can inform the public
of where everything is located
of where everything is located
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能夠告知公眾一切所在的位置，
03:46
to try to keep space safe and sustainable?
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得以確保太空的安全和永續發展呢？
03:49
And what if the system could be used
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如果可以透過運用該系統
來建立以實證為基礎的
太空交通規則行為規範呢？
太空交通規則行為規範呢？
03:52
to form evidence-based
norms of behavior --
norms of behavior --
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03:55
these space traffic rules?
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03:57
So I developed ASTRIAGraph,
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因此，我開發了 ASTRIAGraph，
04:00
the world's first crowdsourced,
space traffic monitoring system
space traffic monitoring system
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這是位在德州大學奧斯汀分校，
世上第一個以群眾外包
完成的太空交通監控系統。
完成的太空交通監控系統。
04:03
at the University of Texas at Austin.
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04:06
ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources
of information from around the globe --
of information from around the globe --
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ASTRIAGraph 結合
來自全球各地的多種訊息來源——
來自全球各地的多種訊息來源——
04:12
government, industry and academia --
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政府、工業和學術界——
04:13
and represents this in a common framework
that anybody can access today.
that anybody can access today.
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建在人人都可以讀取的共同框架中。
04:19
Here, you can see 26,000 objects
orbiting the earth,
orbiting the earth,
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在這裡看得到圍繞地球運行的
兩萬六千個物體、
兩萬六千個物體、
04:23
multiple opinions,
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源自多個看法，
04:25
and it gets updated in near real time.
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並且近乎即時更新。
04:28
But back to my problem
of space traffic map:
of space traffic map:
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回到我的太空交通地圖問題：
04:32
What if you only had information
from the US government?
from the US government?
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如果只收得到美國政府
提供的訊息會怎樣？
提供的訊息會怎樣？
04:36
Well, in that case, that's what
your space traffic map would look like.
your space traffic map would look like.
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那麼，太空交通地圖就是這模樣。
04:39
But what do the Russians think?
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俄國人的呢？
04:45
That looks significantly different.
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看起來迥異。
04:47
Who's right? Who's wrong?
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誰對誰錯？
04:50
What should I believe?
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我應該相信哪個？我能夠相信什麼？
04:51
What could I trust?
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04:52
This is part of the issue.
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這是部分問題。
04:55
In the absence of this framework
to monitor space-actor behavior,
to monitor space-actor behavior,
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在欠缺監測太空行為的框架——
05:03
to monitor activity in space --
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無法監測太空活動
和物體所在位置——
和物體所在位置——
05:05
where these objects are located --
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05:07
to reconcile these inconsistencies
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若沒調和這些不一致性
和讓這知識觸手可及，
05:10
and make this knowledge commonplace,
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05:12
we actually risk losing the ability
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我們真的有可能失去
利用太空來造福人類的能力。
05:17
to use space for humanity's benefit.
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05:22
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝你們。
05:23
(Applause and cheers)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Moriba Jah - Space environmentalistTED Fellow Moriba Jah studies and predicts the motion of objects in space in an effort to make space safe, secure, and sustainable.
Why you should listen
All kinds of junk are floating around in space -- old satellites, rockets, other man-made debris -- that pose an increasing danger to space missions. Astrodynamicist Moriba Jah monitors this orbital debris with ASTRIAGraph, a software that tracks the positions and speeds of objects in Earth’s orbit. Jah's vision is for AstriaGraph to become a crowd-sourced citizen-science platform that will make information about space traffic openly available to future generations. His ultimate goal is to make space safe, secure and sustainable.
Moriba Jah | Speaker | TED.com