TED2018
Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion
Liv Boeree: 3 pelajaran tentang pengambilan keputusan dari juara poker
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Mana yang lebih baik, beruntung atau andal? Haruskah kita mempercayai insting kita atau mengandalkan probabilitas dan analisa yang cermat ketika membuat keputusan penting? Dalam presentasi singkat ini, pemain poker profesional Liv Boeree berbagi tiga strategi yang dia pelajari dari poker dan bagaimana kita dapat menerapkannya dalam kehidupan sehari-hari.
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Saya adalah seorang
pemain poker profesional.
pemain poker profesional.
00:12
So I'm a professional poker player,
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Hari ini, saya ingin membahas tiga hal
dari permainan ini yang saya pelajari,
dari permainan ini yang saya pelajari,
00:15
and today, I want to talk about
three things that the game has taught me
three things that the game has taught me
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dan semuanya dapat membantu kemampuan
ambil keputusan di kehidupan sehari-hari.
ambil keputusan di kehidupan sehari-hari.
00:20
around decision-making
that I find apply to everyday life.
that I find apply to everyday life.
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Yang pertama, keberuntungan.
00:25
Now the first of these things
is about luck.
is about luck.
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Mirip dengan poker, hidup kita juga butuh
keterampilan dan keberuntungan,
keterampilan dan keberuntungan,
00:27
Now, like poker, life is also
a game of skill and luck,
a game of skill and luck,
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dan untuk hal-hal yang cenderung
paling kita pedulikan --
paling kita pedulikan --
00:32
and when it comes
to the biggest things we care about --
to the biggest things we care about --
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00:35
health, wealth and relationships --
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kesehatan, kekayaan,
dan hubungan manusia --
dan hubungan manusia --
hal-hal ini tidak hanya bergantung dengan
keputusan-keputusan yang kita ambil,
keputusan-keputusan yang kita ambil,
00:38
these outcomes don't only depend
on the quality of our decision-making,
on the quality of our decision-making,
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keberuntungan bisa
mengubah semuanya.
mengubah semuanya.
00:42
but also the roll of life's dice.
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Misalkan, walau kita jaga
kesehatan sebisa mungkin
kesehatan sebisa mungkin
00:43
For example, we can be
perfectly health-conscious
perfectly health-conscious
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tetap saja bisa sial dan
kena kanker.
kena kanker.
00:46
and still get unlucky
with something like cancer.
with something like cancer.
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00:50
Or we can smoke 20 a day
and live to a ripe old age,
and live to a ripe old age,
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Sebaliknya, orang yang merokok 20 batang
sehari tapi hidup panjang juga ada.
sehari tapi hidup panjang juga ada.
00:53
and this kind of ambiguity
can make it hard for us to know
can make it hard for us to know
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Keambiguan seperti ini kadang
membuat kita bingung
membuat kita bingung
apakah keputusan yang kita
ambil tepat atau tidak.
ambil tepat atau tidak.
00:56
how good our strategies are, sometimes,
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00:59
especially when we're
experiencing a lot of success.
experiencing a lot of success.
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Apalagi ketika kita mengalami
rentetan kesuksesan.
rentetan kesuksesan.
Misalkan, pada tahun 2010,
01:03
For example, back in 2010,
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01:04
I won a really big poker tournament
known as the European Poker Tour.
known as the European Poker Tour.
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saya jadi juara di turnamen poker besar,
namanya European Poker Tour.
namanya European Poker Tour.
Saat itu saya baru jadi profesional
selama satu tahun,
selama satu tahun,
01:08
And because I'd only been playing
full-time for about a year,
full-time for about a year,
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01:12
when I won, I assumed
I must be rather brilliant.
I must be rather brilliant.
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saat saya juara, jadi saya
berasumsi saya berbakat.
berasumsi saya berbakat.
Bahkan sampai berpikir
bahwa saya jenius,
bahwa saya jenius,
01:16
In fact, I thought I was so brilliant
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dan saya jadi malas
mempelajari permainannya.
mempelajari permainannya.
01:17
that I not only got rather lazy
with studying the game,
with studying the game,
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Saya juga mulai
mengambil risiko,
mengambil risiko,
01:21
but I also got more risky,
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mendaftar di turnamen-turnamen
terbesar
terbesar
01:23
started playing in
the biggest tournaments I could
the biggest tournaments I could
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dan bertanding dengan yang
terbaik di dunia.
terbaik di dunia.
01:26
against the very best in the world.
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01:28
And then my profit graph went
from a thing of beauty
from a thing of beauty
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Alhasil, grafik kemenangan saya
yang aslinya indah
yang aslinya indah
menjadi agak
menyedihkan,
menyedihkan,
01:32
to something kind of sad,
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karena garisnya terus turun
untuk waktu yang lama.
untuk waktu yang lama.
01:34
with this worrying
downhill trend for a long time,
downhill trend for a long time,
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Kemudian saya sadar bahwa
saya terlalu angkuh,
saya terlalu angkuh,
01:37
until I finally realized
that I was overestimating my skill level,
that I was overestimating my skill level,
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01:40
and got my act together.
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dan saya menyesal .
Rasanya ini cukup mirip
dengan kejadian
dengan kejadian
01:42
And this kind of reminds me
of what we've been seeing
of what we've been seeing
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yang terjadi di bidang
cryptocurrency sekitar tahun 2017.
cryptocurrency sekitar tahun 2017.
01:45
in the cryptocurrency space,
at least in 2017,
at least in 2017,
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01:47
where the only thing that's been going up
faster than the markets themselves
faster than the markets themselves
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Pasarnya sendiri bertumbuh cepat,
tapi yang lebih cepat lagi adalah
tapi yang lebih cepat lagi adalah
jumlah "spesialis investasi
senior"
senior"
01:51
is the number of "senior
investment specialists"
investment specialists"
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yang mendadak melonjak.
01:53
who have been appearing out of nowhere.
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Tentu saja seseorang bisa
memiliki keuntungan strategis,
memiliki keuntungan strategis,
01:56
Now I'm not saying it's not possible
to have a strategic edge,
to have a strategic edge,
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tapi orang tersebut juga bisa
berasumsi bahwa mereka jenius,
berasumsi bahwa mereka jenius,
01:59
but at the same time,
it's very easy to feel like a genius
it's very easy to feel like a genius
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padahal sukses karena
pasarnya yang lagi melonjak
pasarnya yang lagi melonjak
02:02
when you're in a market
that's going up so fast
that's going up so fast
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02:04
that even the worst strategies
are making a profit.
are making a profit.
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sampai keputusan
terburuk pun bisa buat untung.
terburuk pun bisa buat untung.
Jadi, ketika kita sukses,
02:07
So when we're experiencing success,
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kita tidak boleh lupa
introspeksi diri.
introspeksi diri.
02:09
it's important to take a moment
to really ask ourselves
to really ask ourselves
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"Apakah ini benar-benar
berkat kemampuanku?"
berkat kemampuanku?"
02:12
how much of it is truly down to us,
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Karena kita suka memuji diri dan tidak
mempertimbangkan keberuntungan kita.
mempertimbangkan keberuntungan kita.
02:15
because our egos love to downplay
the luck factor when we're winning.
the luck factor when we're winning.
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Nah, hal ke dua yang poker
ajarkan saya adalah
ajarkan saya adalah
02:21
Now, a second thing poker taught me
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02:23
is the importance
of quantifying my thinking.
of quantifying my thinking.
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kemampuan untuk berpikir
menggunakan angka.
menggunakan angka.
Ketika bermain poker, kita tidak
bisa asal berpikir,
bisa asal berpikir,
02:26
When you're playing,
you can't just get away with going,
you can't just get away with going,
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"Hehe, palingan ngibul."
02:29
"Eh, they're probably bluffing."
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Itu akan membuat Anda kehilangan uang,
02:31
That's just going to lose you
a bunch of money,
a bunch of money,
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karena poker adalah permainan
yang butuh persentase dan ketelitian,
yang butuh persentase dan ketelitian,
02:33
because poker is a game
of probabilities and precision,
of probabilities and precision,
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02:36
and so you have to train yourself
to think in numbers.
to think in numbers.
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jadi kita harus membiasakan diri
berpikir menggunakan angka.
berpikir menggunakan angka.
02:40
So now, whenever I catch myself
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Sejak itu, bila saya sedang
memikirkan sesuatu yang
penting, seperti --
penting, seperti --
02:42
thinking vaguely about something
really important, like,
really important, like,
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"Tidak mungkin saya lupa apa yang
akan saya bicarakan di TED Talk." --
akan saya bicarakan di TED Talk." --
02:46
"It's unlikely I'll forget
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
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Saya berusaha menggunakan
persentase.
persentase.
02:49
I now try to estimate it numerically.
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02:52
(Laughter)
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(Tertawa)
Sungguh, ini membantu
perencanaan.
perencanaan.
02:53
Trust me, it helps a lot
with the planning process.
with the planning process.
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Dan sebenarnya, apapun
yang terjadi di saat ini
yang terjadi di saat ini
02:56
And the thing is, almost anything
that could possibly happen here today,
that could possibly happen here today,
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ataupun di masa depan
02:59
or at any point in the future,
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juga bisa diestimasikan
menggunakan angka.
menggunakan angka.
03:01
can also be expressed
as a probability, too.
as a probability, too.
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03:04
(Laughter)
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(Tertawa)
Jadi, saya juga menggunakan angka
di pembicaraan sekarang.
di pembicaraan sekarang.
03:07
So now I also try to speak
in numbers as well.
in numbers as well.
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Bila ada yang bertanya,
03:10
So if someone asks me,
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"Liv, Anda bisa mampir
nanti malam?"
nanti malam?"
03:11
"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going
to come along to that thing tonight?"
to come along to that thing tonight?"
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Saya tidak bilang,
"Mungkin."
"Mungkin."
03:15
instead of just saying to them,
"Yeah, probably,"
"Yeah, probably,"
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Saya beri estimasi terbaik saya.
03:17
I actually give them my best estimate --
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Misalnya, 60 persen.
03:19
say, 60 percent.
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Mungkin ini agak aneh, tapi
saya melakukan ini
saya melakukan ini
03:21
Because -- I know that sounds
a little odd --
a little odd --
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karena saya pernah
survei di Twitter
survei di Twitter
03:23
but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter
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mengenai pemahaman orang atas
konsep "mungkin".
konsep "mungkin".
03:26
of what people understand
the word "probably" to mean,
the word "probably" to mean,
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Berikut hasilnya.
03:29
and this was the spread of answers.
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Beda besar!
03:30
Enormous!
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Jadi, kata "mungkin" itu
sebenarnya kurang jelas.
sebenarnya kurang jelas.
03:32
So apparently, it's absolutely useless
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03:33
at actually conveying
any real information.
any real information.
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03:36
So if you guys catch yourselves
using these vague words,
using these vague words,
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Nah, bila Anda menggunakan
kata-kata yang ambigu
kata-kata yang ambigu
03:40
like "probably" or "sometimes,"
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seperti "mungkin" atau
"suatu saat",
"suatu saat",
coba gunakan angka konkrit
sebagai penggantinya. Dengan itu,
sebagai penggantinya. Dengan itu,
03:43
try, instead, using numbers,
because when we speak in numbers,
because when we speak in numbers,
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lawan bicara kita akan punya
gambaran yang jelas juga.
gambaran yang jelas juga.
03:46
we know what lands
in the other person's brain.
in the other person's brain.
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Oke, hal yang ketiga
adalah intuisi.
adalah intuisi.
03:50
Now, the third thing I want
to touch on today is intuition.
to touch on today is intuition.
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Kalian sering tidak, melihat meme
inspirasional
inspirasional
03:55
How often have you seen
these kinds of inspirational memes
these kinds of inspirational memes
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03:58
in your Facebook feed?
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di laman Facebook kalian?
[Percaya instingmu. Dia selalu benar.]
04:01
[Always trust your gut feeling
and never second-guess.]
and never second-guess.]
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Terlihat bagus kan?
04:03
They're nice, right?
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04:05
It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."
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Konsep yang indah, "Percaya jiwamu."
Tapi semua itu adalah
saran yang buruk.
saran yang buruk.
04:09
Well, they're terrible advice.
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Berikut adalah pemain-pemain poker
terbaik di dunia saat ini.
terbaik di dunia saat ini.
04:11
These are some of the best
poker players in the world right now.
poker players in the world right now.
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Memangnya mereka terlihat seperti orang
yang menggunakan perasaan dan intuisi?
yang menggunakan perasaan dan intuisi?
04:14
Do they look like people who live
purely off feelings and intuitions?
purely off feelings and intuitions?
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(Tertawa)
04:19
(Laughter)
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Lihat mereka!
04:20
Look at them!
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04:21
Obviously, these guys
are about slow, careful analysis,
are about slow, careful analysis,
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Jelas ya, mereka tipe yang menganalisa
dengan perlahan dan hati-hati,
dengan perlahan dan hati-hati,
karena permainannya sudah
berevolusi jauh
berevolusi jauh
04:26
and that's because the game
has outgrown the days
has outgrown the days
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dari masa-masa ketika
kecerdikan dan baca emosi
kecerdikan dan baca emosi
04:29
where pure street smarts
and people-reading
and people-reading
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membuat Anda menang.
04:32
can get you to the top.
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Ini karena intuisi kita tidak
sebagus yang kita percaya.
sebagus yang kita percaya.
04:33
And that's because our intuitions
aren't nearly as perfect
aren't nearly as perfect
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04:37
as we'd like to believe.
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Ya, betapa enaknya ya kalau
lagi di situasi sulit
lagi di situasi sulit
04:38
I mean, it'd be great,
whenever we're in a tough spot,
whenever we're in a tough spot,
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mendadak solusinya muncul
dengan ajaib berkat inspirasi.
dengan ajaib berkat inspirasi.
04:41
to just have an answer appear to us
from some magical source of inspiration.
from some magical source of inspiration.
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Tapi sebenarnya, insting kita
mudah terpengaruh
mudah terpengaruh
04:45
But in reality, our gut
is extremely vulnerable
is extremely vulnerable
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oleh pengharapan ataupun
prasangka.
prasangka.
04:48
to all kinds of wishful
thinking and biases.
thinking and biases.
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Jadi, kapan insting kita bermanfaat?
04:52
So then, what is our gut good for?
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04:55
Well, all the studies I've read
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Berdasarkan hasil studi yang
telah saya baca,
telah saya baca,
04:57
conclude that it's best-suited
for everyday things
for everyday things
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insting itu paling cocok
untuk kejadian sehari-hari
untuk kejadian sehari-hari
05:01
that we have lots
and lots of experience in,
and lots of experience in,
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yang sudah kita alami
berkali-kali.
berkali-kali.
Contoh, kita sadar bila teman kita
sedang marah terhadap kita
sedang marah terhadap kita
05:03
like how we just know
that our friend is mad at us
that our friend is mad at us
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05:06
before we've even said anything to them,
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padahal bicara saja belum.
Atau, ketika kita parkir mobil
di tempat yang sempit.
di tempat yang sempit.
05:08
or whether we can fit our car
into a tight parking spot.
into a tight parking spot.
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Tapi kalau berhubungan dengan
hal-hal yang besar
hal-hal yang besar
05:11
But when it comes to the really big stuff,
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05:13
like what's our career path going to be
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seperti jalan karier kita
atau pasangan nikah kita,
atau pasangan nikah kita,
05:16
or who should we marry,
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kenapa berasumsi bahwa intuisi kita
lebih bagus daripada
lebih bagus daripada
05:17
why should we assume that our intuitions
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05:21
are better calibrated for these
than slow, proper analysis?
than slow, proper analysis?
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analisa yang cermat dan perlahan?
05:25
I mean, they don't have
any data to be based off.
any data to be based off.
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Kan tidak ada sumber data
sebagai referensi.
sebagai referensi.
Jadi, pelajaran ketiga. Intuisi
dapat memberi saran yang bagus.
dapat memberi saran yang bagus.
05:28
So my third lesson is,
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
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05:32
we shouldn't overprivilege them either.
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Tapi jangan terlalu
mengandalkannya.
mengandalkannya.
Nah, saya akan meringkas tiga
pelajaran tadi
pelajaran tadi
05:34
And I'd like to summarize
these three lessons today
these three lessons today
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dengan meme yang saya
sendiri, ala pemain poker.
sendiri, ala pemain poker.
05:37
with my own set of memes,
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05:38
with more of a poker-player twist.
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"Sukses itu manis..."
05:41
"Success is sweetest when you achieve it
across a large sample size."
across a large sample size."
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"...kalau tidak jarang."
05:46
(Laughter)
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(Tertawa)
"Insting adalah sobatmu..."
05:47
"Your gut is your friend
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
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"...begitu juga analisa biaya-manfaat."
05:52
(Laughter)
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"Tiada yang bisa tahu masa depan..."
05:53
"The future is unknown, but you can
damn well try and estimate it."
damn well try and estimate it."
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"...Tapi kita bisa coba
estimasikan."
estimasikan."
Terima kasih.
05:58
Thank you.
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(Tepuk tangan)
05:59
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialistLiv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world.
Why you should listen
Liv Boeree is a science communicator and games specialist. A former professional poker player, she has won multiple championship titles on the international poker circuit and was the #1 ranked female player in 2016. Previously, she studied astrophysics and became fascinated with applying scientific thinking to everyday life. This introduced her to effective altruism: a philosophical movement that uses evidence and reason to identify and mitigate the world's most pressing problems. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, a non-profit that fundraises for the most globally impactful charities and research organizations.
Liv Boeree | Speaker | TED.com