TED2018
Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion
丽芙 · 波利: 来自扑克冠军关于做决定的三个策略
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手法好还是运气好？在做重要决定时，我们是应该相信自己的直觉呢，还是应该相信概率和缜密的分析？在这篇简短的演讲中，职业扑克玩家丽芙 · 波利分享了她从游戏中学到的三种策略，以及我们可以如何将它们应用到现实生活中。
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So I'm a professional poker player,
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我是一名专业扑克玩家，
00:15
and today, I want to talk about
three things that the game has taught me
three things that the game has taught me
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今天，我想谈一谈牌局教给我的
00:20
around decision-making
that I find apply to everyday life.
that I find apply to everyday life.
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可以应用于日常决策的三个决策。
00:25
Now the first of these things
is about luck.
is about luck.
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第一个就是运气。
00:27
Now, like poker, life is also
a game of skill and luck,
a game of skill and luck,
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生活就像扑克游戏，需要技巧和运气，
00:32
and when it comes
to the biggest things we care about --
to the biggest things we care about --
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当面对我们最关心的事情——
00:35
health, wealth and relationships --
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健康，财富，和人际关系——
其结果都不只跟我们做决定的质量有关，
00:38
these outcomes don't only depend
on the quality of our decision-making,
on the quality of our decision-making,
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也取决于生活中的运气。
00:42
but also the roll of life's dice.
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00:43
For example, we can be
perfectly health-conscious
perfectly health-conscious
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例如，我们在非常注重健康的情况下，
00:46
and still get unlucky
with something like cancer.
with something like cancer.
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也仍然会不幸患上癌症。
或者一天抽20只烟，也能同样活到99，
00:50
Or we can smoke 20 a day
and live to a ripe old age,
and live to a ripe old age,
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00:53
and this kind of ambiguity
can make it hard for us to know
can make it hard for us to know
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这种模糊性有时候让我们很难判断
我们的策略究竟有多好，
00:56
how good our strategies are, sometimes,
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00:59
especially when we're
experiencing a lot of success.
experiencing a lot of success.
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尤其在经历了多次成功之后。
01:03
For example, back in 2010,
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比如说，在2010年时，
我赢得了一场真正意义上的
扑克锦标赛，欧洲扑克巡回赛。
扑克锦标赛，欧洲扑克巡回赛。
01:04
I won a really big poker tournament
known as the European Poker Tour.
known as the European Poker Tour.
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01:08
And because I'd only been playing
full-time for about a year,
full-time for about a year,
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再加上我当时仅仅全职玩了一年的扑克，
01:12
when I won, I assumed
I must be rather brilliant.
I must be rather brilliant.
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获胜之后，我觉得我一定非常聪明。
01:16
In fact, I thought I was so brilliant
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事实上，我觉得自己已经如此聪明了，
01:17
that I not only got rather lazy
with studying the game,
with studying the game,
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所以不仅懒得去钻研游戏，
还开始变得喜欢冒险，
01:21
but I also got more risky,
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01:23
started playing in
the biggest tournaments I could
the biggest tournaments I could
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开始参加我能参加的最大的比赛，
01:26
against the very best in the world.
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与最强大的对手对决。
01:28
And then my profit graph went
from a thing of beauty
from a thing of beauty
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然后我的利润图表从让人赏心悦目，
01:32
to something kind of sad,
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变得有些惨不忍睹，
并且这种令人担忧的
下行趋势持续了很长时间，
下行趋势持续了很长时间，
01:34
with this worrying
downhill trend for a long time,
downhill trend for a long time,
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直到我最终意识到，我高估了自己的水平，
01:37
until I finally realized
that I was overestimating my skill level,
that I was overestimating my skill level,
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并开始重振旗鼓。
01:40
and got my act together.
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01:42
And this kind of reminds me
of what we've been seeing
of what we've been seeing
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这让我回想起了
在加密货币领域的见闻，至少在2017年，
01:45
in the cryptocurrency space,
at least in 2017,
at least in 2017,
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01:47
where the only thing that's been going up
faster than the markets themselves
faster than the markets themselves
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唯一比市场本身上升还快的
01:51
is the number of "senior
investment specialists"
investment specialists"
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就是不知道从哪里冒出来的
01:53
who have been appearing out of nowhere.
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“高级投资专家”的数量。
01:56
Now I'm not saying it's not possible
to have a strategic edge,
to have a strategic edge,
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我不是说不可能有战略优势，
但与此同时，当你在
一个快速上升的市场中，
一个快速上升的市场中，
01:59
but at the same time,
it's very easy to feel like a genius
it's very easy to feel like a genius
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即便操着最烂的策略也能赚钱时，
02:02
when you're in a market
that's going up so fast
that's going up so fast
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02:04
that even the worst strategies
are making a profit.
are making a profit.
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是非常容易感觉自己天赋异禀的。
所以当我们在经历成功时，
02:07
So when we're experiencing success,
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02:09
it's important to take a moment
to really ask ourselves
to really ask ourselves
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应该花点时间扪心自问，
这次成功中有多少因素
真正取决于我们的能力，
真正取决于我们的能力，
02:12
how much of it is truly down to us,
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02:15
because our egos love to downplay
the luck factor when we're winning.
the luck factor when we're winning.
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因为当我们获胜时，我们的自负感
会倾向于淡化运气成分。
会倾向于淡化运气成分。
02:21
Now, a second thing poker taught me
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第二件扑克教给我的事，
02:23
is the importance
of quantifying my thinking.
of quantifying my thinking.
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是量化自己想法的重要性。
02:26
When you're playing,
you can't just get away with going,
you can't just get away with going,
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当你在牌局上时，不可能就这样想着，
“呃，他们可能是在虚张声势。”
02:29
"Eh, they're probably bluffing."
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02:31
That's just going to lose you
a bunch of money,
a bunch of money,
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这只会让你输很多钱，
因为扑克是个关于概率和精确性的游戏，
02:33
because poker is a game
of probabilities and precision,
of probabilities and precision,
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所以你必须训练自己用数字思考。
02:36
and so you have to train yourself
to think in numbers.
to think in numbers.
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所以现在，每当我发现自己
02:40
So now, whenever I catch myself
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在粗略地思考一些
非常重要的事情时，比如
非常重要的事情时，比如
02:42
thinking vaguely about something
really important, like,
really important, like,
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“我大概不会在TED演讲时
忘记自己想要讲什么，”
忘记自己想要讲什么，”
02:46
"It's unlikely I'll forget
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
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02:49
I now try to estimate it numerically.
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我现在会尝试用数字估算它。
02:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
相信我，这真的对计划过程
有很大的帮助。
有很大的帮助。
02:53
Trust me, it helps a lot
with the planning process.
with the planning process.
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事实上，什么事情都有可能在今天
02:56
And the thing is, almost anything
that could possibly happen here today,
that could possibly happen here today,
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或在未来某个时候发生，
02:59
or at any point in the future,
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也可以被表达为概率。
03:01
can also be expressed
as a probability, too.
as a probability, too.
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03:04
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
我也会尝试把数据用到对话中。
03:07
So now I also try to speak
in numbers as well.
in numbers as well.
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如果有人问我，
03:10
So if someone asks me,
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“嗨，丽芙，你今晚会参加么？”
03:11
"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going
to come along to that thing tonight?"
to come along to that thing tonight?"
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与其用“可能吧”这样的方式回复他们，
03:15
instead of just saying to them,
"Yeah, probably,"
"Yeah, probably,"
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我会给他们我最好的估计值——
03:17
I actually give them my best estimate --
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比如，六成。
03:19
say, 60 percent.
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虽然——我知道这听着奇怪——
03:21
Because -- I know that sounds
a little odd --
a little odd --
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但关键在于，我在推特上对人们
03:23
but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter
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如何理解“可能吧”这句话做了个调研，
03:26
of what people understand
the word "probably" to mean,
the word "probably" to mean,
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这是答案的分布情况。
03:29
and this was the spread of answers.
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十分广泛！
03:30
Enormous!
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很明显，在传达任何重要的信息时，
03:32
So apparently, it's absolutely useless
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这个表达是完全没用的。
03:33
at actually conveying
any real information.
any real information.
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所以如果你们抓到自己在用
03:36
So if you guys catch yourselves
using these vague words,
using these vague words,
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像“大概”或者“有时候”的模糊词语时，
03:40
like "probably" or "sometimes,"
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尝试让自己用数字，
因为我们用数字说话时，
因为我们用数字说话时，
03:43
try, instead, using numbers,
because when we speak in numbers,
because when we speak in numbers,
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我们知道对方会如何理解。
03:46
we know what lands
in the other person's brain.
in the other person's brain.
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03:50
Now, the third thing I want
to touch on today is intuition.
to touch on today is intuition.
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今天我要讲的第三点，是直觉。
03:55
How often have you seen
these kinds of inspirational memes
these kinds of inspirational memes
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多少人在Facebook上看到过那些
03:58
in your Facebook feed?
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心灵鸡汤的图片？
04:01
[Always trust your gut feeling
and never second-guess.]
and never second-guess.]
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【始终相信你的直觉，不要怀疑自己。】
04:03
They're nice, right?
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挺正能量的，对吧？
04:05
It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."
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真的挺不错的。没错，”相信你的灵魂。“
04:09
Well, they're terrible advice.
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只不过它们都是差劲的建议。
04:11
These are some of the best
poker players in the world right now.
poker players in the world right now.
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这些是世界上最厉害的扑克玩家。
他们看着像是完全活在
自己的感觉和直觉里的人吗？
自己的感觉和直觉里的人吗？
04:14
Do they look like people who live
purely off feelings and intuitions?
purely off feelings and intuitions?
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（笑声）
04:19
(Laughter)
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看看他们！
04:20
Look at them!
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很明显，这些人凭借的
是缓慢，缜密的分析，
是缓慢，缜密的分析，
04:21
Obviously, these guys
are about slow, careful analysis,
are about slow, careful analysis,
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因为现在的牌局已经不像当年，
04:26
and that's because the game
has outgrown the days
has outgrown the days
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靠着纯粹的草根智慧和看人能力
04:29
where pure street smarts
and people-reading
and people-reading
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就能让你到达顶峰。
04:32
can get you to the top.
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这是因为我们的直觉
并没有我们想象中的
并没有我们想象中的
04:33
And that's because our intuitions
aren't nearly as perfect
aren't nearly as perfect
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04:37
as we'd like to believe.
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那么完美。
当然了，如果每次深陷难处之时，
04:38
I mean, it'd be great,
whenever we're in a tough spot,
whenever we're in a tough spot,
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都能灵光一现，让问题
迎刃而解，那就再好不过了。
迎刃而解，那就再好不过了。
04:41
to just have an answer appear to us
from some magical source of inspiration.
from some magical source of inspiration.
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04:45
But in reality, our gut
is extremely vulnerable
is extremely vulnerable
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但现实中，我们的直觉极容易受到
一厢情愿的想法和偏见的影响。
04:48
to all kinds of wishful
thinking and biases.
thinking and biases.
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04:52
So then, what is our gut good for?
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那么，我们的直觉究竟擅长什么呢？
在我看过的所有研究中，
04:55
Well, all the studies I've read
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都总结出了直觉最适合于那些
04:57
conclude that it's best-suited
for everyday things
for everyday things
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我们有丰富经验的事情上，
05:01
that we have lots
and lots of experience in,
and lots of experience in,
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比如我们在跟朋友沟通前，
05:03
like how we just know
that our friend is mad at us
that our friend is mad at us
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就知道他们在生我们的气，
05:06
before we've even said anything to them,
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或者我们能不能把车停到
一个非常小的车位上。
一个非常小的车位上。
05:08
or whether we can fit our car
into a tight parking spot.
into a tight parking spot.
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但在做重大决定时，
05:11
But when it comes to the really big stuff,
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比如我们的职业规划
05:13
like what's our career path going to be
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或挑选结婚对象时，
05:16
or who should we marry,
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我们为什么要相信直觉会比
05:17
why should we assume that our intuitions
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05:21
are better calibrated for these
than slow, proper analysis?
than slow, proper analysis?
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慢节奏，适当的分析
更适合处理这些问题呢？
更适合处理这些问题呢？
我意思是，直觉没有任何数据来支撑。
05:25
I mean, they don't have
any data to be based off.
any data to be based off.
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05:28
So my third lesson is,
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
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所以我学到的第三件事就是：
我们不应该忽视我们的直觉，
我们不应该忽视我们的直觉，
但也不应该过分重视它们。
05:32
we shouldn't overprivilege them either.
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我现在想要
05:34
And I'd like to summarize
these three lessons today
these three lessons today
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从一名扑克玩家的角度
05:37
with my own set of memes,
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05:38
with more of a poker-player twist.
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来总结一下这三个经验。
05:41
"Success is sweetest when you achieve it
across a large sample size."
across a large sample size."
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“通过大样本量获得的成功才是最甜美的。”
（笑声）
05:46
(Laughter)
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”直觉是你的朋友，成本效益分析也同样。”
05:47
"Your gut is your friend
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
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（笑声）
05:52
(Laughter)
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05:53
"The future is unknown, but you can
damn well try and estimate it."
damn well try and estimate it."
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”未来是未知的，但是你可以
努力的尝试并且评估它。“
努力的尝试并且评估它。“
谢谢。
05:58
Thank you.
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（掌声）
05:59
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialistLiv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world.
Why you should listen
Liv Boeree is a science communicator and games specialist. A former professional poker player, she has won multiple championship titles on the international poker circuit and was the #1 ranked female player in 2016. Previously, she studied astrophysics and became fascinated with applying scientific thinking to everyday life. This introduced her to effective altruism: a philosophical movement that uses evidence and reason to identify and mitigate the world's most pressing problems. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, a non-profit that fundraises for the most globally impactful charities and research organizations.
Liv Boeree | Speaker | TED.com