ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world.

Why you should listen

Liv Boeree is a science communicator and games specialist. A former professional poker player, she has won multiple championship titles on the international poker circuit and was the #1 ranked female player in 2016. Previously, she studied astrophysics and became fascinated with applying scientific thinking to everyday life. This introduced her to effective altruism: a philosophical movement that uses evidence and reason to identify and mitigate the world's most pressing problems. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, a non-profit that fundraises for the most globally impactful charities and research organizations.

More profile about the speaker
Liv Boeree | Speaker | TED.com
TED2018

Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion

Filmed:
2,960,494 views

Is it better to be lucky or good? Should we trust our gut feelings or rely on probabilities and careful analysis when making important decisions? In this quick talk, professional poker player Liv Boeree shares three strategies she's learned from the game and how we can apply them to real life.
- Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So I'm a professional poker player,
0
944
2374
00:15
and today, I want to talk about
three things that the game has taught me
1
3342
5270
00:20
around decision-making
that I find apply to everyday life.
2
8636
3828
00:25
Now the first of these things
is about luck.
3
13061
2791
00:27
Now, like poker, life is also
a game of skill and luck,
4
15876
4838
00:32
and when it comes
to the biggest things we care about --
5
20738
2678
00:35
health, wealth and relationships --
6
23440
2777
00:38
these outcomes don't only depend
on the quality of our decision-making,
7
26241
3834
00:42
but also the roll of life's dice.
8
30099
1745
00:43
For example, we can be
perfectly health-conscious
9
31868
2987
00:46
and still get unlucky
with something like cancer.
10
34879
3370
00:50
Or we can smoke 20 a day
and live to a ripe old age,
11
38273
3119
00:53
and this kind of ambiguity
can make it hard for us to know
12
41416
3523
00:56
how good our strategies are, sometimes,
13
44963
2596
00:59
especially when we're
experiencing a lot of success.
14
47583
2888
01:03
For example, back in 2010,
15
51043
1834
01:04
I won a really big poker tournament
known as the European Poker Tour.
16
52901
3984
01:08
And because I'd only been playing
full-time for about a year,
17
56909
3342
01:12
when I won, I assumed
I must be rather brilliant.
18
60275
2895
01:16
In fact, I thought I was so brilliant
19
64106
1842
01:17
that I not only got rather lazy
with studying the game,
20
65972
3444
01:21
but I also got more risky,
21
69440
1650
01:23
started playing in
the biggest tournaments I could
22
71114
3008
01:26
against the very best in the world.
23
74146
2515
01:28
And then my profit graph went
from a thing of beauty
24
76685
3492
01:32
to something kind of sad,
25
80201
2412
01:34
with this worrying
downhill trend for a long time,
26
82637
2360
01:37
until I finally realized
that I was overestimating my skill level,
27
85021
3465
01:40
and got my act together.
28
88510
1491
01:42
And this kind of reminds me
of what we've been seeing
29
90525
2517
01:45
in the cryptocurrency space,
at least in 2017,
30
93066
2746
01:47
where the only thing that's been going up
faster than the markets themselves
31
95836
3589
01:51
is the number of "senior
investment specialists"
32
99449
2477
01:53
who have been appearing out of nowhere.
33
101950
2388
01:56
Now I'm not saying it's not possible
to have a strategic edge,
34
104362
2966
01:59
but at the same time,
it's very easy to feel like a genius
35
107352
3080
02:02
when you're in a market
that's going up so fast
36
110456
2412
02:04
that even the worst strategies
are making a profit.
37
112892
2406
02:07
So when we're experiencing success,
38
115322
2309
02:09
it's important to take a moment
to really ask ourselves
39
117655
2857
02:12
how much of it is truly down to us,
40
120536
2632
02:15
because our egos love to downplay
the luck factor when we're winning.
41
123192
4492
02:21
Now, a second thing poker taught me
42
129058
2181
02:23
is the importance
of quantifying my thinking.
43
131263
3343
02:26
When you're playing,
you can't just get away with going,
44
134630
2899
02:29
"Eh, they're probably bluffing."
45
137553
1679
02:31
That's just going to lose you
a bunch of money,
46
139256
2224
02:33
because poker is a game
of probabilities and precision,
47
141504
3199
02:36
and so you have to train yourself
to think in numbers.
48
144727
3496
02:40
So now, whenever I catch myself
49
148247
2182
02:42
thinking vaguely about something
really important, like,
50
150453
3549
02:46
"It's unlikely I'll forget
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
51
154026
3225
02:49
I now try to estimate it numerically.
52
157275
2691
02:52
(Laughter)
53
160819
1001
02:53
Trust me, it helps a lot
with the planning process.
54
161844
2474
02:56
And the thing is, almost anything
that could possibly happen here today,
55
164342
3420
02:59
or at any point in the future,
56
167786
1555
03:01
can also be expressed
as a probability, too.
57
169365
2296
03:04
(Laughter)
58
172333
2715
03:07
So now I also try to speak
in numbers as well.
59
175072
3405
03:10
So if someone asks me,
60
178501
1151
03:11
"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going
to come along to that thing tonight?"
61
179676
3515
03:15
instead of just saying to them,
"Yeah, probably,"
62
183215
2317
03:17
I actually give them my best estimate --
63
185556
1828
03:19
say, 60 percent.
64
187408
1842
03:21
Because -- I know that sounds
a little odd --
65
189274
2103
03:23
but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter
66
191401
3072
03:26
of what people understand
the word "probably" to mean,
67
194497
2564
03:29
and this was the spread of answers.
68
197085
1748
03:30
Enormous!
69
198857
1151
03:32
So apparently, it's absolutely useless
70
200032
1833
03:33
at actually conveying
any real information.
71
201889
2695
03:36
So if you guys catch yourselves
using these vague words,
72
204608
3641
03:40
like "probably" or "sometimes,"
73
208273
2896
03:43
try, instead, using numbers,
because when we speak in numbers,
74
211193
3199
03:46
we know what lands
in the other person's brain.
75
214416
2396
03:50
Now, the third thing I want
to touch on today is intuition.
76
218092
3690
03:55
How often have you seen
these kinds of inspirational memes
77
223410
3516
03:58
in your Facebook feed?
78
226950
1483
04:01
[Always trust your gut feeling
and never second-guess.]
79
229018
2723
04:03
They're nice, right?
80
231765
1261
04:05
It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."
81
233726
2625
04:09
Well, they're terrible advice.
82
237030
1873
04:11
These are some of the best
poker players in the world right now.
83
239292
3470
04:14
Do they look like people who live
purely off feelings and intuitions?
84
242786
4461
04:19
(Laughter)
85
247271
1001
04:20
Look at them!
86
248296
1649
04:21
Obviously, these guys
are about slow, careful analysis,
87
249969
4580
04:26
and that's because the game
has outgrown the days
88
254573
2507
04:29
where pure street smarts
and people-reading
89
257104
3008
04:32
can get you to the top.
90
260136
1821
04:33
And that's because our intuitions
aren't nearly as perfect
91
261981
3302
04:37
as we'd like to believe.
92
265307
1270
04:38
I mean, it'd be great,
whenever we're in a tough spot,
93
266601
2542
04:41
to just have an answer appear to us
from some magical source of inspiration.
94
269167
4006
04:45
But in reality, our gut
is extremely vulnerable
95
273197
3398
04:48
to all kinds of wishful
thinking and biases.
96
276619
3435
04:52
So then, what is our gut good for?
97
280905
2199
04:55
Well, all the studies I've read
98
283128
2072
04:57
conclude that it's best-suited
for everyday things
99
285224
3947
05:01
that we have lots
and lots of experience in,
100
289195
2389
05:03
like how we just know
that our friend is mad at us
101
291608
2730
05:06
before we've even said anything to them,
102
294362
2047
05:08
or whether we can fit our car
into a tight parking spot.
103
296433
3152
05:11
But when it comes to the really big stuff,
104
299609
2088
05:13
like what's our career path going to be
105
301721
2524
05:16
or who should we marry,
106
304269
1682
05:17
why should we assume that our intuitions
107
305975
3525
05:21
are better calibrated for these
than slow, proper analysis?
108
309524
3702
05:25
I mean, they don't have
any data to be based off.
109
313250
2460
05:28
So my third lesson is,
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
110
316528
3778
05:32
we shouldn't overprivilege them either.
111
320330
2373
05:34
And I'd like to summarize
these three lessons today
112
322727
2428
05:37
with my own set of memes,
113
325179
1628
05:38
with more of a poker-player twist.
114
326831
2055
05:41
"Success is sweetest when you achieve it
across a large sample size."
115
329957
4135
05:46
(Laughter)
116
334116
1738
05:47
"Your gut is your friend
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
117
335878
4420
05:52
(Laughter)
118
340322
1233
05:53
"The future is unknown, but you can
damn well try and estimate it."
119
341579
4643
05:58
Thank you.
120
346246
1151
05:59
(Applause)
121
347421
6666

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world.

Why you should listen

Liv Boeree is a science communicator and games specialist. A former professional poker player, she has won multiple championship titles on the international poker circuit and was the #1 ranked female player in 2016. Previously, she studied astrophysics and became fascinated with applying scientific thinking to everyday life. This introduced her to effective altruism: a philosophical movement that uses evidence and reason to identify and mitigate the world's most pressing problems. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, a non-profit that fundraises for the most globally impactful charities and research organizations.

More profile about the speaker
Liv Boeree | Speaker | TED.com