ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world.

Why you should listen

Liv Boeree is a science communicator and games specialist. A former professional poker player, she has won multiple championship titles on the international poker circuit and was the #1 ranked female player in 2016. Previously, she studied astrophysics and became fascinated with applying scientific thinking to everyday life. This introduced her to effective altruism: a philosophical movement that uses evidence and reason to identify and mitigate the world's most pressing problems. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, a non-profit that fundraises for the most globally impactful charities and research organizations.

More profile about the speaker
Liv Boeree | Speaker | TED.com
TED2018

Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion

麗芙.波莉: 撲克牌冠軍下決策的三點領悟

Filmed:
2,960,494 views

幸運和順遂比較好嗎?面臨重大抉擇時應該要相信直覺,還是倚靠機率和謹慎的分析?在這個精簡的演說裡,專業撲克選手麗芙.波莉分享她從牌局中學到的三個方略,以及如何將它們運用到現實生活中。
- Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So I'm a professional專業的 poker撲克 player播放機,
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我是一個職業的撲克選手,
00:15
and today今天, I want to talk about
three things that the game遊戲 has taught me
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今天我想要分享三件我從牌桌上學到
關於做決定,
00:20
around decision-making做決定
that I find apply應用 to everyday每天 life.
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並且可以應用在日常生活中的事。
00:25
Now the first of these things
is about luck運氣.
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第一件是運氣!
00:27
Now, like poker撲克, life is also
a game遊戲 of skill技能 and luck運氣,
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就像撲克牌,
人生也是一場
由技巧和運氣決定的牌局。
00:32
and when it comes
to the biggest最大 things we care關心 about --
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當提到我們最關心的事項:
00:35
health健康, wealth財富 and relationships關係 --
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健康、財富和緣分時,
00:38
these outcomes結果 don't only depend依靠
on the quality質量 of our decision-making做決定,
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這些結果不只取決於
我們做抉擇的優劣,
00:42
but also the roll of life's人生 dice骰子.
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還得聽憑命運骰子的滾翻。
00:43
For example, we can be
perfectly完美 health-conscious注重健康
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舉例來說我們可以極致地注重養身,
00:46
and still get unlucky不幸的
with something like cancer癌症.
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卻依然不幸罹患上癌症;
00:50
Or we can smoke抽煙 20 a day
and live生活 to a ripe成熟 old age年齡,
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或一天抽上二十根香菸還頤享天年。
00:53
and this kind of ambiguity歧義
can make it hard for us to know
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而這種說不準讓我們難以理解:
00:56
how good our strategies策略 are, sometimes有時,
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我們的決策是好是壞,
00:59
especially特別 when we're
experiencing經歷 a lot of success成功.
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特別是我們獲得許多成功時。
01:03
For example, back in 2010,
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例如時間拉回西元 2010 年,
01:04
I won韓元 a really big poker撲克 tournament比賽
known已知 as the European歐洲的 Poker撲克 Tour遊覽.
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我贏得了確實盛大的撲克牌錦標賽-
歐洲撲克大賽的冠軍。
01:08
And because I'd only been playing播放
full-time全職 for about a year,
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因為當時才剛打職業賽一年左右,
01:12
when I won韓元, I assumed假定
I must必須 be rather brilliant輝煌.
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勝出時我自以為必定相當聰明。
01:16
In fact事實, I thought I was so brilliant輝煌
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事實上當我認為自己很聰明...
01:17
that I not only got rather lazy
with studying研究 the game遊戲,
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我不只更偷懶不去研究牌局,
01:21
but I also got more risky有風險,
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也開始變得貪險,
01:23
started開始 playing播放 in
the biggest最大 tournaments比賽 I could
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開始盡量參加全世界最大的巡迴賽,
01:26
against反對 the very best最好 in the world世界.
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對壘世上最強的高手!
01:28
And then my profit利潤 graph圖形 went
from a thing of beauty美女
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然後我的獎金折線圖從峰頂
01:32
to something kind of sad傷心,
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掉到悲慘的谷底...
01:34
with this worrying令人擔憂
downhill下坡 trend趨勢 for a long time,
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且持續了這低潮走向好長一段時間,
01:37
until直到 I finally最後 realized實現
that I was overestimating高估 my skill技能 level水平,
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直到我終究醒悟過來
我高估了自己的牌技,
01:40
and got my act法案 together一起.
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才找回自己!
01:42
And this kind of reminds提醒 me
of what we've我們已經 been seeing眼看
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而這有些令我想起
起碼 2017 年時虛擬貨幣市場的天地;
01:45
in the cryptocurrencycryptocurrency space空間,
at least最小 in 2017,
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01:47
where the only thing that's been going up
faster更快 than the markets市場 themselves他們自己
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唯一比市場本身成長得更快更多的
01:51
is the number of "senior前輩
investment投資 specialists專家"
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是無處不斷冒出
「資深投資專家」的數量。
01:53
who have been appearing出現 out of nowhere無處.
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01:56
Now I'm not saying it's not possible可能
to have a strategic戰略 edge邊緣,
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我並不是說不可能擁有策略優勢,
01:59
but at the same相同 time,
it's very easy簡單 to feel like a genius天才
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值此時當你正處於快速成長的市場,
02:02
when you're in a market市場
that's going up so fast快速
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你很容易以為自己是個天才,
02:04
that even the worst最差 strategies策略
are making製造 a profit利潤.
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即便最草包的策略也有錢賺!
02:07
So when we're experiencing經歷 success成功,
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所以說在我們成功當下
02:09
it's important重要 to take a moment時刻
to really ask ourselves我們自己
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花些時間好好問自己,
02:12
how much of it is truly down to us,
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到底有多少歸功於自己是重要的事;
02:15
because our egos自我 love to downplay淡化
the luck運氣 factor因子 when we're winning勝利.
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因為我們的自大特愛在
贏的氛圍中看扁運氣因素。
02:21
Now, a second第二 thing poker撲克 taught me
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撲克牌教我的第二件事
02:23
is the importance重要性
of quantifying量化 my thinking思維.
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是數量性思考的重要性!
02:26
When you're playing播放,
you can't just get away with going,
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當你在玩牌時你不能只想著:
02:29
"Eh, they're probably大概 bluffing唬人."
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他們應該只是在唬人,
02:31
That's just going to lose失去 you
a bunch of money,
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這將會讓你輸一大筆錢!
02:33
because poker撲克 is a game遊戲
of probabilities概率 and precision精確,
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因為撲克牌是機率與精準性的賽事,
02:36
and so you have to train培養 yourself你自己
to think in numbers數字.
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所以你必須訓練你自己用數字做思考;
02:40
So now, whenever每當 I catch抓住 myself
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所以現在無論何時我逮到自己
02:42
thinking思維 vaguely依稀 about something
really important重要, like,
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不確切地對大事情做思考
例如:「我太可能會忘記
我要在 TED 演講的內容。」
02:46
"It's unlikely不會 I'll forget忘記
what I want to say in my TEDTED Talk,"
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02:49
I now try to estimate估計 it numerically數字.
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我現在嘗試用數字來評估它。
02:52
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
02:53
Trust相信 me, it helps幫助 a lot
with the planning規劃 process處理.
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相信我!伴隨做規劃時這點幫助很大,
02:56
And the thing is, almost幾乎 anything
that could possibly或者 happen發生 here today今天,
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而且幾乎所有
今天在這裡可能發生的事-
或者是未來某個時間點-
02:59
or at any point in the future未來,
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03:01
can also be expressed表達
as a probability可能性, too.
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也都可以表示成機率。
03:04
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
03:07
So now I also try to speak說話
in numbers數字 as well.
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所以我現在也要嘗試用數字說話,
03:10
So if someone有人 asks me,
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如果有人問我:
03:11
"Hey, Liv麗 芙, do you think you're going
to come along沿 to that thing tonight今晚?"
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莉芙你有在想今晚會過來露個臉嗎?
03:15
instead代替 of just saying to them,
"Yeah, probably大概,"
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一反只跟他們說:大概吧!
03:17
I actually其實 give them my best最好 estimate估計 --
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我真實地給他們我最佳估計,
03:19
say, 60 percent百分.
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像說 60% 吧!
03:21
Because -- I know that sounds聲音
a little odd --
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我知道那聽起來有點怪,
03:23
but the thing is, I ran a poll輪詢 on Twitter推特
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但是我在推特上做了個民調-
03:26
of what people understand理解
the word "probably大概" to mean,
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問大家對「大概」的意思理解為何-
而這是答案的分布-
03:29
and this was the spread傳播 of answers答案.
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南轅北轍!
03:30
Enormous巨大!
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所以很顯然地這個字完全
沒辦法傳達任何真實的資訊。
03:32
So apparently顯然地, it's absolutely絕對 useless無用
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03:33
at actually其實 conveying輸送
any real真實 information信息.
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03:36
So if you guys catch抓住 yourselves你自己
using運用 these vague模糊 words,
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所以如果你們逮到自己
在用這些不確切的字眼,
03:40
like "probably大概" or "sometimes有時,"
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像是「大概」或是「有時候」等,
03:43
try, instead代替, using運用 numbers數字,
because when we speak說話 in numbers數字,
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試著換成數字;
因為當我們用數字說事情,
03:46
we know what lands土地
in the other person's人的 brain.
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我們知道對方的腦袋裡聽進去甚麼。
03:50
Now, the third第三 thing I want
to touch觸摸 on today今天 is intuition直覺.
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現在我想淺談的第三件事是直覺!
03:55
How often經常 have you seen看到
these kinds of inspirational勵志 memes模因
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你們有多常在臉書動態上
看到這種開導型網路瘋傳的字圖檔?
03:58
in your FacebookFacebook的 feed飼料?
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04:01
[Always trust相信 your gut腸道 feeling感覺
and never second-guess第二猜測.]
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【永遠相信你的直覺並且不要多想 】
04:03
They're nice不錯, right?
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它們很棒對吧?
04:05
It's lovely可愛. Yes. "Trust相信 your soul靈魂."
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沒錯當然很棒...信任你的心靈!
04:09
Well, they're terrible可怕 advice忠告.
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它們是垃圾建議!
04:11
These are some of the best最好
poker撲克 players玩家 in the world世界 right now.
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這些是部分當今世上
最頂尖的撲克牌玩家,
04:14
Do they look like people who live生活
purely純粹 off feelings情懷 and intuitions直覺?
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他們看上去像單純用感知
和直覺生活的人嗎?
04:19
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
04:20
Look at them!
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看看他們!
04:21
Obviously明顯, these guys
are about slow, careful小心 analysis分析,
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很顯然他們慢條斯理、縝密分析,
04:26
and that's because the game遊戲
has outgrown穿不下 the days
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這是因為本賽事已經遠超
04:29
where pure street smarts智慧
and people-reading人閱讀
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單憑機靈和讀心術
04:32
can get you to the top最佳.
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就可以把你擺上頂峰;
04:33
And that's because our intuitions直覺
aren't nearly幾乎 as perfect完善
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因為我們的直覺
並不如我們自以為的那般無懈可擊,
04:37
as we'd星期三 like to believe.
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04:38
I mean, it'd它會 be great,
whenever每當 we're in a tough強硬 spot,
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我的意思是當我們陷入困境時,
04:41
to just have an answer回答 appear出現 to us
from some magical神奇 source資源 of inspiration靈感.
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有個答案來自神奇源頭的啟發
一閃而出太棒了。
04:45
But in reality現實, our gut腸道
is extremely非常 vulnerable弱勢
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但是實際上我們的直覺
碰上種種一廂情願和偏見
是大打折扣的。
04:48
to all kinds of wishful如意
thinking思維 and biases偏見.
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04:52
So then, what is our gut腸道 good for?
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那麼我們的直覺好用在那兒呢?
04:55
Well, all the studies學習 I've read
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在我看過的所有研究
04:57
conclude得出結論 that it's best-suited最適合
for everyday每天 things
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歸結直覺最合乎日常事項-
我們有數不完之經驗的事情,
05:01
that we have lots
and lots of experience經驗 in,
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05:03
like how we just know
that our friend朋友 is mad at us
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像是我們在和朋友說上話之前
05:06
before we've我們已經 even said anything to them,
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如何知道他正對自己生氣;
05:08
or whether是否 we can fit適合 our car汽車
into a tight parking停車處 spot.
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或是可不可以把我們的車
停進狹窄的車位。
05:11
But when it comes to the really big stuff東東,
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但是輪到真正的大事...
05:13
like what's our career事業 path路徑 going to be
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像是我們的職涯發展是怎樣的光景?
05:16
or who should we marry結婚,
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或是該跟誰結婚?
05:17
why should we assume承擔 that our intuitions直覺
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為什麼我們要當真以為我們的直覺
05:21
are better calibrated校準 for these
than slow, proper正確 analysis分析?
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比慢速、適當的分析校準地更好?
05:25
I mean, they don't have
any data數據 to be based基於 off.
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我是說這些東西並沒有任何數據歸依!
05:28
So my third第三 lesson is,
while we shouldn't不能 ignore忽視 our intuitions直覺,
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所以我的第三個教訓是
當我們不應忽視直覺的同時,
05:32
we shouldn't不能 overprivilege過度特權 them either.
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我們也不能太尊仰它們!
05:34
And I'd like to summarize總結
these three lessons教訓 today今天
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我想要用我自己套路網路瘋傳的
字圖檔總結這三個教訓,
05:37
with my own擁有 set of memes模因,
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05:38
with more of a poker-player撲克牌手 twist.
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帶有一個撲克牌玩家的轉折!
05:41
"Success成功 is sweetest甜蜜 when you achieve實現 it
across橫過 a large sample樣品 size尺寸."
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「成功是最甜美的-
當你穿越浩大的樣本數時!」
05:46
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
05:47
"Your gut腸道 is your friend朋友
and so is a cost-benefit成本效益 analysis分析.
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「你的直覺是益友-
成本效益分析也是!」
05:52
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
05:53
"The future未來 is unknown未知, but you can
damn該死的 well try and estimate估計 it."
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「將來是未知的-
但你可以放手幹以及估算它!」
05:58
Thank you.
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謝謝。
05:59
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Ting-Yen Tsai
Reviewed by Harry Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world.

Why you should listen

Liv Boeree is a science communicator and games specialist. A former professional poker player, she has won multiple championship titles on the international poker circuit and was the #1 ranked female player in 2016. Previously, she studied astrophysics and became fascinated with applying scientific thinking to everyday life. This introduced her to effective altruism: a philosophical movement that uses evidence and reason to identify and mitigate the world's most pressing problems. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, a non-profit that fundraises for the most globally impactful charities and research organizations.

More profile about the speaker
Liv Boeree | Speaker | TED.com