TED2015
Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed
Bils Gross: Galvenais jaunuzņēmumu panākumu iemesls
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Bils Gross ir dibinājis daudzus jaunuzņēmumus un daudziem citiem palīdzējis izaugt. Viņš vēlējās uzzināt, kāpēc daži no tiem gūst panākumus, bet citi ne. Viņš savāca datus no simtiem savu un citu uzņēmumu un sarindoja tos pēc 5 galvenajiem faktoriem. Viens no faktoriem izrādījās svarīgāks nekā citi, un tas pārsteidza pat viņu pašu.
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm really excited to share with you
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Ar lielu nepacietību vēlos padalīties
00:14
some findings that really surprise me
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dažos mani
ļoti pārsteidzošos atklājumos par to,
ļoti pārsteidzošos atklājumos par to,
00:17
about what makes companies
succeed the most,
succeed the most,
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kas ir pašā uzņēmumu panākumu pamatā,
00:20
what factors actually matter the most
for startup success.
for startup success.
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kādi faktori jaunuzņēmuma
panākumiem ir vissvarīgākie.
panākumiem ir vissvarīgākie.
00:25
I believe that the startup organization
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Es uzskatu, ka jaunuzņēmumu veidošana
00:27
is one of the greatest forms
to make the world a better place.
to make the world a better place.
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ir viens no lieliskākajiem veidiem
kā padarīt pasauli labāku.
kā padarīt pasauli labāku.
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity incentives
with the right equity incentives
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Ja ņemsam cilvēku grupu
ar tādu pašu stimulu
ar tādu pašu stimulu
00:34
and organize them in a startup,
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un iesaistīsim tos jaunuzņēmumā,
00:36
you can unlock human potential
in a way never before possible.
in a way never before possible.
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varam iegūt tādu cilvēkpotenciālu,
kāds nekad iepriekš nav bijis iespējams.
kāds nekad iepriekš nav bijis iespējams.
00:40
You get them to achieve
unbelievable things.
unbelievable things.
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Viņi var sasniegt neticamo.
Bet ja jaunuzņēmuma organizācija
ir tik lieliska,
ir tik lieliska,
00:43
But if the startup
organization is so great,
organization is so great,
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00:45
why do so many fail?
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kāpēc tik daudzi no tiem cieš neveiksmi?
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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To es vēlējos uzzināt.
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually matters most
actually matters most
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Es vēlējos uzzināt, kas jaunuzņēmuma
panākumiem ir vissvarīgākais.
panākumiem ir vissvarīgākais.
00:51
for startup success.
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00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic about it,
to be systematic about it,
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Es gribēju tam
mēģināt pieiet sistemātiski,
mēģināt pieiet sistemātiski,
00:54
avoid some of my instincts
and maybe misperceptions I have
and maybe misperceptions I have
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izvairīties no saviem instinktiem
un, iespējams, maldiem
un, iespējams, maldiem
00:57
from so many companies
I've seen over the years.
I've seen over the years.
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no daudzajiem uzņēmumiem,
ko šo gadu laikā esmu pieredzējis.
ko šo gadu laikā esmu pieredzējis.
01:00
I wanted to know this
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Es to gribēju zināt,
01:01
because I've been starting businesses
since I was 12 years old
since I was 12 years old
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jo esmu dibinājis uzņēmumus
kopš 12 gadu vecuma,
kopš 12 gadu vecuma,
01:04
when I sold candy at the bus stop
in junior high school,
in junior high school,
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kad vidusskolas sākuma klasēs
autobusa pieturā pārdevu saldumus,
autobusa pieturā pārdevu saldumus,
01:07
to high school, when I made
solar energy devices,
solar energy devices,
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tad vidusskolā taisīju
saules enerģijas ierīces,
saules enerģijas ierīces,
01:09
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
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tad augstskolā – skaļruņus.
01:11
And when I graduated from college,
I started software companies.
I started software companies.
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Un kad pabeidzu augstskolu,
dibināju programmatūras uzņēmumus.
dibināju programmatūras uzņēmumus.
01:14
And 20 years ago,
I started Idealab,
I started Idealab,
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Un pirms 20 gadiem, es dibināju Idealab,
01:16
and in the last 20 years,
we started more than 100 companies,
we started more than 100 companies,
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un pēdējo 20 gadu laikā
vairāk nekā 100 citus uzņēmumus.
vairāk nekā 100 citus uzņēmumus.
01:19
many successes, and many big failures.
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Daudzus veiksmīgus,
un daudzus ļoti neveiksmīgus.
un daudzus ļoti neveiksmīgus.
01:21
We learned a lot from those failures.
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No neveiksmēm mēs daudz iemācījāmies.
01:23
So I tried to look across what factors
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Tā nu es mēģināju palūkoties
uz to, kādi faktori
uz to, kādi faktori
01:26
accounted the most for company
success and failure.
success and failure.
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visvairāk noteica uzņēmuma
veiksmi vai neveiksmi.
veiksmi vai neveiksmi.
01:29
So I looked at these five.
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Es apskatīju šos piecus.
01:31
First, the idea.
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Pirmkārt, ideja.
01:32
I used to think that
the idea was everything.
the idea was everything.
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Es kādreiz domāju, ka ideja ir viss.
01:34
I named my company Idealab
for how much I worship
for how much I worship
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Tas, ka nosaucu savu uzņēmumu Idealab,
norāda, cik augstu vērtēju
norāda, cik augstu vērtēju
01:36
the "aha!" moment when you first
come up with the idea.
come up with the idea.
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„aha!” brīdi, kad rodas ideja.
01:39
But then over time,
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Bet laikam ritot,
01:40
I came to think that maybe the team,
the execution, adaptability,
the execution, adaptability,
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sāku domāt, ka varbūt komanda,
izpildījums, pielāgojamība
izpildījums, pielāgojamība
01:43
that mattered even more than the idea.
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ir pat svarīgāka nekā ideja.
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
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Nebiju domājis, ka uz TED skatuves
kādreiz citēšu bokseri Maiku Taisonu,
kādreiz citēšu bokseri Maiku Taisonu,
01:50
but he once said,
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bet viņš reiz teica:
01:52
"Everybody has a plan, until they get
punched in the face." (Laughter)
punched in the face." (Laughter)
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„Katram ir plāns,
līdz viņam iesit pa seju.” (Smiekli)
līdz viņam iesit pa seju.” (Smiekli)
01:56
And I think that's so true
about business as well.
about business as well.
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Manuprāt, tā tas ir arī uzņēmējdarbībā.
01:59
So much about a team's execution
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Labs komandas darbs
02:02
is its ability to adapt to getting punched
in the face by the customer.
in the face by the customer.
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ir spēja pielāgoties,
kad klients sit pa seju.
kad klients sit pa seju.
02:05
The customer is the true reality.
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Klients ir skarbā īstenība.
02:07
And that's why I came to think
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Tāpēc es nonācu pie domām,
02:09
that the team maybe
was the most important thing.
was the most important thing.
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ka vissvarīgākā, iespējams, ir komanda.
Tad es sāku skatīties
uz uzņēmējdarbības modeli.
uz uzņēmējdarbības modeli.
02:12
Then I started looking
at the business model.
at the business model.
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02:14
Does the company have a very clear path
generating customer revenues?
generating customer revenues?
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Vai uzņēmumam ir ļoti skaidrs veids,
kā no klientiem radīt ieņēmumus?
kā no klientiem radīt ieņēmumus?
02:17
That started rising to the top
in my thinking
in my thinking
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Es aizvien vairāk sāku domāt,
02:19
about maybe what mattered
most for success.
most for success.
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ka varbūt tas ir veiksmes pašā pamatā.
02:21
Then I looked at the funding.
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Tad es aplūkoju finansēšanu.
02:23
Sometimes companies received
intense amounts of funding.
intense amounts of funding.
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Dažreiz uzņēmumi saņem
milzīgu finansējumu.
milzīgu finansējumu.
02:25
Maybe that's the most important thing?
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Varbūt tas ir vissvarīgākais?
02:27
And then of course,
the timing.
the timing.
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Un tad, protams, laika izvēle.
Vai ideja nāk daudz par agru
un pasaule tai vēl nav gatava?
un pasaule tai vēl nav gatava?
02:29
Is the idea way too early and
the world's not ready for it?
the world's not ready for it?
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Vai vēl ir par agru, proti, esat
visiem priekšā un jums pasaule jāizglīto?
visiem priekšā un jums pasaule jāizglīto?
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance
and you have to educate the world?
and you have to educate the world?
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Vai tā nāk tieši laikā?
02:35
Is it just right?
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02:36
Or is it too late, and there's
already too many competitors?
already too many competitors?
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Vai arī tā nāk par vēlu
un konkurentu jau ir par daudz?
un konkurentu jau ir par daudz?
02:39
So I tried to look very carefully
at these five factors
at these five factors
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Es rūpīgi apskatīju šos piecus faktorus
02:41
across many companies.
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daudzu uzņēmumu griezumā.
02:42
And I looked across all 100
Idealab companies,
Idealab companies,
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Es apskatīju visus 100 Idealab uzņēmumus,
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab companies
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un 100 neIdealab uzņēmumus,
02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific about it.
something scientific about it.
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lai mēģinātu iegūt
kādas zinātniskas atziņas.
kādas zinātniskas atziņas.
02:49
So first, on these Idealab companies,
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Pirmkārt, par Idealab uzņēmumiem runājot,
02:51
the top five companies --
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pieci labākie –
02:53
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
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Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com –
NetZero, Tickets.com –
02:57
those all became billion-dollar successes.
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visi kļuva par miljardiem dolāru
vērtiem panākumiem.
vērtiem panākumiem.
02:59
And the five companies on the bottom --
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Un pieci neveiksmīgākie uzņēmumi –
03:01
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
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Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink –
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink –
03:03
we all had high hopes for,
but didn't succeed.
but didn't succeed.
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uz kuriem ļoti cerējām,
neko daudz nesasniedza.
neko daudz nesasniedza.
03:06
So I tried to rank across all
of those attributes
of those attributes
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Es mēģināju sarindot
visus šos rādītājus pēc tā,
visus šos rādītājus pēc tā,
03:09
how I felt those companies scored
on each of those dimensions.
on each of those dimensions.
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kā, manuprāt, uzņēmumiem
veicās katrā no šīm dimensijām.
veicās katrā no šīm dimensijām.
03:13
And then for non-Idealab companies,
I looked at wild successes,
I looked at wild successes,
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Un tad starp neIdealab uzņēmumiem
apskatīju vislielākos veiksminiekus,
apskatīju vislielākos veiksminiekus,
03:16
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
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kā Airbnb, Instagram,
Uber, Youtube un LinkedIn.
Uber, Youtube un LinkedIn.
03:20
And some failures:
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Un dažus neveiksminiekus:
03:21
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
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Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com,
03:23
Flooz and Friendster.
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Flooz un Friendster.
03:24
The bottom companies had intense funding,
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Neveiksmīgajiem uzņēmumiem
bija spēcīgs finansējums,
bija spēcīgs finansējums,
03:26
they even had business models
in some cases,
in some cases,
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dažkārt pat biznesa modeļi,
03:28
but they didn't succeed.
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bet tie neguva panākumus.
03:29
I tried to look at what factors
actually accounted the most
actually accounted the most
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Es mēģināju saskatīt, kādi faktori
visos šajos uzņēmumos
visos šajos uzņēmumos
03:32
for success and failure across
all of these companies,
all of these companies,
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veiksmes vai neveiksmes pamatā
tomēr bija vissvarīgākie,
tomēr bija vissvarīgākie,
03:35
and the results really surprised me.
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un rezultāti mani ļoti pārsteidza.
03:37
The number one thing was timing.
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Pirmajā vietā bija pareiza laika izvēle.
03:39
Timing accounted for 42 percent
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Laika izvēle uzrādīja 42 procentu
03:42
of the difference
between success and failure.
between success and failure.
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starpību starp veiksmi un neveiksmi.
03:44
Team and execution came in second,
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Komanda un izpildījums bija otrajā vietā,
03:46
and the idea,
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un ideja,
03:47
the differentiability of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
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idejas dažādība un vienreizīgums
03:50
that actually came in third.
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palika tikai trešajā vietā.
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
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Tas gan nav galīgs spriedums,
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea isn't important,
the idea isn't important,
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un nenozīmē, ka ideja nav svarīga,
03:56
but it very much surprised me that
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
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bet mani ļoti pārsteidza,
ka ideja nav vissvarīgākā.
ka ideja nav vissvarīgākā.
Dažreiz lielāka nozīme
bija pareiza laika izvēlei.
bija pareiza laika izvēlei.
03:59
Sometimes it mattered more when
it was actually timed.
it was actually timed.
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04:02
The last two, business model and funding,
made sense to me actually.
made sense to me actually.
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Pēdējie divi, biznesa modelis
un finansējums mani nepārsteidza.
un finansējums mani nepārsteidza.
04:05
I think business model
makes sense to be that low
makes sense to be that low
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Manuprāt, uzņēmējdarbības modelis
tiešām nav tik svarīgs,
tiešām nav tik svarīgs,
04:08
because you can start out
without a business model
without a business model
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jo varat sākt arī bez tā
04:10
and add one later if your customers
are demanding what you're creating.
are demanding what you're creating.
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un vēlāk to izveidot,
ja klienti pieprasa jūsu preci.
ja klienti pieprasa jūsu preci.
04:13
And funding, I think as well,
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Un par finansējumu, es arī domāju,
04:15
if you're underfunded at first
but you're gaining traction,
but you're gaining traction,
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ja sākumā tas trūkst,
bet vēlāk sevi labi parādāt,
bet vēlāk sevi labi parādāt,
04:18
especially in today's age,
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jo īpaši mūslaikos,
04:19
it's very, very easy to get
intense funding.
intense funding.
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iegūt finansējumu ir ļoti, ļoti viegli.
04:21
So now let me give you some specific
examples about each of these.
examples about each of these.
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Nu es katrā no šīm kategorijām
minēšu dažus ļoti konkrētus piemērus.
minēšu dažus ļoti konkrētus piemērus.
04:24
So take a wild success like Airbnb
that everybody knows about.
that everybody knows about.
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Katrs pazīst tādu milzīgu
veiksminieku kā Airbnb.
veiksminieku kā Airbnb.
04:27
Well, that company was famously
passed on by many smart investors
passed on by many smart investors
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Šim uzņēmumam, kā zināms,
daudzi smalki investori atteica,
daudzi smalki investori atteica,
04:30
because people thought,
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jo viņi domāja:
04:31
"No one's going to rent out a space
in their home to a stranger."
in their home to a stranger."
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„Neviens svešiniekam
savās mājās neizīrēs telpu.”
savās mājās neizīrēs telpu.”
04:34
Of course, people proved that wrong.
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Protams, cilvēki pierādīja pretējo.
04:36
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
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Bet viens no panākumu iemesliem,
04:38
aside from a good business model,
a good idea, great execution,
a good idea, great execution,
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papildus labam biznesa modelim,
idejai un lieliskam izpildījumam,
idejai un lieliskam izpildījumam,
04:41
is the timing.
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bija pareizais laiks.
04:42
That company came out
right during the height of the recession
right during the height of the recession
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Šis uzņēmums radās
lejupslīdes zemākajā punktā,
lejupslīdes zemākajā punktā,
04:45
when people really needed extra money,
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kad cilvēkiem vajadzēja papildu naudu,
04:47
and that maybe helped people overcome
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un varbūt tas viņiem palīdzēja pārvarēt
04:48
their objection to renting out
their own home to a stranger.
their own home to a stranger.
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iebildumus izīrēt
savas mājas svešiniekiem.
savas mājas svešiniekiem.
04:51
Same thing with Uber.
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Tas pats ar Uber.
04:52
Uber came out,
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Uber radās,
04:53
incredible company,
incredible business model,
incredible business model,
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neticams uzņēmums,
neticams biznesa modelis,
neticams biznesa modelis,
04:56
great execution, too.
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arī lielisks izpildījums.
04:57
But the timing was so perfect
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Bet laika izvēle bija tik ideāla
04:58
for their need to get drivers
into the system.
into the system.
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autovadītāju iesaistīšanai savā sistēmā!
05:00
Drivers were looking for extra money;
it was very, very important.
it was very, very important.
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Autovadītāji meklēja iespēju nopelnīt,
tas bija ļoti, ļoti svarīgi.
tas bija ļoti, ļoti svarīgi.
05:03
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
came out when people needed web pages.
came out when people needed web pages.
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Dažas no mūsu agrīnajām veiksmēm,
Citysearch, radās, kad vajadzēja vietnes.
Citysearch, radās, kad vajadzēja vietnes.
05:07
GoTo.com, which we announced
actually at TED in 1998,
actually at TED in 1998,
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GoTo.com, par ko
1998. gadā paziņojām TED,
1998. gadā paziņojām TED,
05:10
was when companies were looking for
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
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radās, kad uzņēmumi meklēja
lētus veidus apmeklētāju piesaistīšanai.
lētus veidus apmeklētāju piesaistīšanai.
05:13
We thought the idea was so great,
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Mēs domajām, ka lieliska bija ideja,
05:15
but actually, the timing was probably
maybe more important.
maybe more important.
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bet laika izvēle
varbūt pat bija svarīgāka.
varbūt pat bija svarīgāka.
05:17
And then some of our failures.
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Un, lūk, neveiksminieki.
05:19
We started a company called Z.com,
it was an online entertainment company.
it was an online entertainment company.
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Mēs dibinājām Z.com, kas bija
interneta izklaides uzņēmums.
interneta izklaides uzņēmums.
Mēs par to bijām lielā sajūsmā –
05:22
We were so excited about it --
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05:24
we raised enough money,
we had a great business model,
we had a great business model,
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piesaistījām pietiekoši naudas,
mums bija lielisks biznesa modelis,
mums bija lielisks biznesa modelis,
05:26
we even signed incredibly great
Hollywood talent to join the company.
Hollywood talent to join the company.
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mēs pat vienojāmies ar spīdošu
Holivudas talantu, kas mums pievienojās.
Holivudas talantu, kas mums pievienojās.
05:29
But broadband penetration
was too low in 1999-2000.
was too low in 1999-2000.
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Bet platjoslas pieslēgums
1999., 2000. gadā bija par maz pieejams.
1999., 2000. gadā bija par maz pieejams.
05:32
It was too hard to watch
video content online,
video content online,
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Skatīties video internetā bija neērti,
05:34
you had to put codecs in your browser
and do all this stuff,
and do all this stuff,
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pārlūkos vajadzēja kodekus un tamlīdzīgi,
05:37
and the company eventually
went out of business in 2003.
went out of business in 2003.
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un uzņēmums 2003. gadā beigās bankrotēja.
05:39
Just two years later,
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Tikai 2 gadus vēlāk,
05:41
when the codec problem
was solved by Adobe Flash
was solved by Adobe Flash
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Adobe Flash atrisinot kodeku problēmu,
05:43
and when broadband penetration
crossed 50 percent in America,
crossed 50 percent in America,
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un Amerikā platjoslas internetam
sasniedzot 50% pieejamību,
sasniedzot 50% pieejamību,
05:47
YouTube was perfectly timed.
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YouTube bija tieši pareizajā laikā.
05:49
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
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Lieliska ideja,
bet neticami laba laika izvēle.
bet neticami laba laika izvēle.
05:51
In fact, YouTube didn't even have
a business model when it first started.
a business model when it first started.
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Patiesībā, YouTube, tikko sākot,
nemaz nebija biznesa modeļa.
nemaz nebija biznesa modeļa.
05:54
It wasn't even certain that
that would work out.
that would work out.
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Viņi pat nebija droši, vai izdosies.
05:57
But that was beautifully,
beautifully timed.
beautifully timed.
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Bet laika ziņā tas bija skaisti trāpīts.
05:59
So what I would say, in summary,
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Kopsavilkumā vēlos teikt,
06:00
is execution definitely matters a lot.
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ka izpildījumam noteikti ir liela nozīme.
06:03
The idea matters a lot.
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Ideja ir ļoti svarīga.
06:04
But timing might matter even more.
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Bet pareiza laika izvēle ir vēl svarīgāka.
06:06
And the best way to really assess timing
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Un labākais veids,
kā noteikt pareizo laiku,
kā noteikt pareizo laiku,
06:08
is to really look at whether
consumers are really ready
consumers are really ready
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ir paraudzīties, vai patērētāji
tiešām ir gatavi tam,
tiešām ir gatavi tam,
06:11
for what you have to offer them.
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ko viņiem piedāvāsiet.
06:12
And to be really, really honest about it,
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Un būt pavisam godīgiem
06:14
not be in denial about
any results that you see,
any results that you see,
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un nenoliegt redzētos rezultātus,
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward,
you want to push it forward,
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jo ja kaut kas ļoti patīk,
jūs to vēlaties īstenot,
jūs to vēlaties īstenot,
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest
about that factor on timing.
about that factor on timing.
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bet jābūt ļoti, ļoti godīgiem
pret pareizā laika faktoru.
pret pareizā laika faktoru.
06:23
As I said earlier,
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Kā jau iepriekš teicu,
06:24
I think startups can change the world
and make the world a better place.
and make the world a better place.
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manuprāt, jaunuzņēmumi
var padarīt pasauli labāku.
var padarīt pasauli labāku.
06:27
I hope some of these insights
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Ceru, ka dažas no šīm atziņām
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher success ratio,
have a slightly higher success ratio,
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var nedaudz uzlabot
jūsu veiksmes iespējas,
jūsu veiksmes iespējas,
06:31
and thus make something great
come to the world
come to the world
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un tā radīsies kas lielisks,
06:33
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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kas citkārt nebūtu radies.
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience.
you've been a great audience.
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Liels paldies, jūs bijāt lieliska publika.
06:37
(Applause)
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(Aplausi)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guyBill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.
Why you should listen
Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks.
Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com