ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Rudd - International relations expert
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming.

Why you should listen

Drawing on a deep knowledge of Chinese culture, language and history (and as a Senior Fellow with Harvard’s Belfer Center), Kevin Rudd and his colleagues study alternate courses for US-China relations that guide us away from a seemingly inevitable confrontation. As Prime Minister during the global financial crisis (and as one of the founders of the G20), Rudd helped keep Australia out of recession with a stimulus strategy lauded by the IMF as exemplary among its member states. Rudd is also President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank specializing in Asian affairs.

In March 2015, Rudd published "China under Xi Jinping: Alternative Futures for U.S.-China Relations," a series of three addresses on American and Chinese values, perceptions, interests, and strategic intentions, and their impact on the possibility of developing a common narrative for U.S.-China relations for the future.

More profile about the speaker
Kevin Rudd | Speaker | TED.com
TED2015

Kevin Rudd: Are China and the US doomed to conflict?

凯文·路德(陆克文): 中国和美国注定要有冲突吗?

Filmed:
3,522,105 views

凯文·路德(陆克文),澳洲的前任首相,也是中国的老学生、他利用其职位的独特优势,目睹了中国在过去几十年的崛起与强大。他质疑,中国日益发展的抱负,是否会不可避免地指向与其他大国的冲突——同时他提出了另一种观点。
- International relations expert
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
G'day天儿真好, my name's名字的 Kevin凯文.
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大家好,我叫凯文
00:14
I'm from Australia澳大利亚. I'm here to help.
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我来自澳大利亚,我来帮忙的
00:17
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
00:20
Tonight今晚, I want to talk about
a tale故事 of two cities城市.
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今晚,我想谈一个关于两个城市的故事
00:24
One of those cities城市 is called Washington华盛顿,
and the other is called Beijing北京.
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其中一个城市叫华盛顿,另一个叫北京
00:30
Because how these two capitals首都
shape形状 their future未来
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因为这两个首都如何规划他们的未来
以及美国的未来,中国的未来
00:36
and the future未来 of the United联合的 States状态
and the future未来 of China中国
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00:39
doesn't just affect影响 those two countries国家,
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不仅仅是影响这两个国家
00:41
it affects影响 all of us
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它对我们所有人都有影响
00:43
in ways方法, perhaps也许, we've我们已经 never thought of:
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可能,在很多方面,我们都没想过:
00:46
the air空气 we breathe呼吸, the water we drink,
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我们呼吸的空气,我们饮用的水
00:51
the fish we eat,
the quality质量 of our oceans海洋,
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我们食用的鱼,我们海洋的质量
00:54
the languages语言 we speak说话 in the future未来,
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我们以后使用语言
00:57
the jobs工作 we have,
the political政治 systems系统 we choose选择,
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我们拥有的工作
我们选择的政治系统
01:00
and, of course课程, the great questions问题
of war战争 and peace和平.
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当然,还有,战争与和平这一重大问题
01:06
You see that bloke小子? He's French法国.
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看到那哥儿们了吗?他是法国人
01:09
His name名称 is Napoleon拿破仑.
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他的名字叫拿破仑
01:11
A couple一对 of hundred years年份 ago,
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几百年前
01:12
he made制作 this extraordinary非凡 projection投影:
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他发表了这一非凡的推测
01:15
"China中国 is a sleeping睡眠 lion狮子,
and when she awakes醒来,
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“中国是沉睡的雄狮
当她醒来时世界将为之震撼
01:17
the world世界 will shake."
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01:19
Napoleon拿破仑 got a few少数 things wrong错误;
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拿破仑犯过一些错误
01:22
he got this one absolutely绝对 right.
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但在这一点,他是毫无疑问正确的
01:24
Because China中国 is today今天
not just woken唤醒 up,
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因为今天的中国不单醒了
01:29
China中国 has stood站在 up
and China中国 is on the march游行,
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而且还站了起来,并大步前行
01:32
and the question for us all
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那么留给我们的问题就是
01:34
is where will China中国 go
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中国将走向何方
01:36
and how do we engage从事
this giant巨人 of the 21stST century世纪?
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我们要如何在21世纪与这巨人一同前行
01:43
You start开始 looking at the numbers数字,
they start开始 to confront面对 you in a big way.
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你开始注意数据
这些数据大规模向你袭来
01:47
It's projected预计 that China中国 will become成为,
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它展示了中国
01:50
by whichever任何 measure测量 --
PPPPPP, market市场 exchange交换 rates利率 --
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不管是以哪种衡量方式——
购买力平价,市场汇率——
01:53
the largest最大 economy经济 in the world世界
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在接下来十年的过程中
01:55
over the course课程 of the decade ahead.
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都将成为世界最大的经济体
01:58
They're already已经
the largest最大 trading贸易 nation国家,
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他们已经是最大的贸易国
02:00
already已经 the largest最大 exporting出口 nation国家,
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已经是最大的出口国
02:02
already已经 the largest最大 manufacturing制造业 nation国家,
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已经是最大的生产制造国
02:04
and they're also the biggest最大
emitters发射器 of carbon in the world世界.
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同时也是世界上碳排放量最大的国家
02:08
America美国 comes second第二.
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美国位居第二
02:11
So if China中国 does become成为
the world's世界 largest最大 economy经济,
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所以一旦中国成为世界最大的经济体
02:16
think about this:
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那么细想一下:
02:18
It'll它会 be the first time
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这将会是自
02:21
since以来 this guy was on
the throne王座 of England英国 --
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这个英国国王
02:26
George乔治 IIIIII, not a good friend朋友
of Napoleon's拿破仑 --
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乔治三世之后,他可不是拿破仑的好友——
02:29
that in the world世界 we will have
as the largest最大 economy经济
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这个世界上形成的最大的经济体
02:35
a non-English非英语 speaking请讲 country国家,
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一个非英语的国家
02:37
a non-Western非西方 country国家,
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它不是一个西方国家
02:39
a non-liberal非自由主义 democratic民主的 country国家.
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它不是一个自由民主政治的国家
02:42
And if you don't think
that's going to affect影响
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如果你觉得这不会影响世界未来的发展
02:44
the way in which哪一个 the world世界
happens发生 in the future未来,
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如果你觉得这不会影响世界未来的发展
02:47
then personally亲自, I think
you've been smoking抽烟 something,
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那么个人觉得,你一定是大麻抽嗨了
02:50
and it doesn't mean you're from Colorado科罗拉多州.
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这并不意味你来自科罗拉多
(美国的一个州,大麻已经合法化)
02:54
So in short, the question
we have tonight今晚 is,
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简而言之,今晚我们的问题
02:57
how do we understand理解 this mega-change巨型变化,
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就是我们如何理解这场巨变
03:00
which哪一个 I believe to be the biggest最大 change更改
for the first half of the 21stST century世纪?
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我觉得这是21世纪上半世纪最大的改变
03:05
It'll它会 affect影响 so many许多 things.
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它的影响范围极广
03:08
It will go to the absolute绝对 core核心.
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它会影响到我们的绝对核心
03:10
It's happening事件 quietly悄悄.
It's happening事件 persistently一贯.
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它悄然无息在发生
它持续不断在发生
03:12
It's happening事件 in some senses感官
under the radar雷达,
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它在雷达侦测不到的某种方式在发生
03:15
as we are all preoccupied斤斤计较 with
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而此时我们却在关心
03:17
what's going in Ukraine乌克兰,
what's going on in the Middle中间 East,
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乌克兰怎么了
中东怎么了
03:19
what's going on with ISIS伊斯兰国,
what's going on with ISILISIL,
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ISIS恐怖组织怎么了
ISIL基地组织怎么了
03:22
what's happening事件 with
the future未来 of our economies经济.
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我们未来的经济会怎样
03:25
This is a slow and quiet安静 revolution革命.
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这是一个缓慢而无声的革命
03:29
And with a mega-change巨型变化
comes also a mega-challenge巨型挑战,
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伴随着这个巨变而来的,是巨大的挑战
03:35
and the mega-challenge巨型挑战 is this:
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这个巨大的挑战就是:
03:37
Can these two great countries国家,
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这两个大国
03:39
China中国 and the United联合的 States状态 --
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中国和美国——
03:41
China中国,
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中国
03:47
the Middle中间 Kingdom王国,
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中央之国
03:49
and the United联合的 States状态,
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美国
03:54
iguIGUó --
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Měiguó——
03:57
which哪一个 in Chinese中文, by the way,
means手段 "the beautiful美丽 country国家."
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在中文里,意思是“美丽的国家”
04:00
Think about that -- that's the name名称
that China中国 has given特定 this country国家
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想一下,那是中国在一百多年前
04:04
for more than a hundred years年份.
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给美国起的名字
04:06
Whether是否 these two great civilizations文明,
these two great countries国家,
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这两种文明,这两个国度
04:09
can in fact事实 carve雕刻 out a common共同 future未来
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能否为他们也为世界
04:14
for themselves他们自己 and for the world世界?
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勾勒出共同的未来呢?
04:16
In short, can we carve雕刻 out a future未来
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简而言之,我们能否勾画出这么一个未来
04:19
which哪一个 is peaceful平静的 and mutually相互 prosperous繁荣,
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和平共处,互惠互利
04:23
or are we looking at a great challenge挑战
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或我们是在考虑要战争还是和平
04:24
of war战争 or peace和平?
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这一巨大挑战?
04:27
And I have 15 minutes分钟
to work through通过 war战争 or peace和平,
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我有15分钟给大家讲一下战争或和平
04:29
which哪一个 is a little less time
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这相比当时他们给这个人
04:33
than they gave this guy to write a book
called "War战争 and Peace和平."
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写《战争与和平》这本书的时间要简短些
04:38
People ask me, why is it that a kid孩子
growing生长 up in rural乡村 Australia澳大利亚
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人们问我,为什么一个在澳大利亚乡下长大的小孩
04:42
got interested有兴趣 in learning学习 Chinese中文?
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会对学习中文感兴趣呢?
04:44
Well, there are two reasons原因 for that.
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原因有二
04:46
Here's这里的 the first of them.
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这是第一个
04:47
That's Betsy贝特西 the cow.
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这是一头叫贝琪的奶牛
04:49
Now, Betsy贝特西 the cow was one
of a herd放牧 of dairy乳制品 cattle黄牛
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现在,奶牛贝琪是和在澳洲农村
04:53
that I grew成长 up with on a farm农场
in rural乡村 Australia澳大利亚.
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和我一起长大的众多奶牛中的一头
04:57
See those hands there?
These are not built内置 for farming农业.
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看到这双手了吗?它们并不适合用来耕作
05:00
So very early on, I discovered发现
that in fact事实, working加工 in a farm农场
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所以很早的时候,我就发现
05:04
was not designed设计 for me,
and China中国 was a very safe安全 remove去掉
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我并不适合在农场做事,
而中国对我来说
05:07
from any career事业 in Australian澳大利亚 farm农场 life.
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则是从澳洲农业生活中安全解脱的途径
05:10
Here's这里的 the second第二 reason原因.
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接来下第二个原因
05:12
That's my mom妈妈.
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那是我母亲
05:12
Anyone任何人 here ever listen
to what their mom妈妈 told them to do?
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在座有人曾听从母亲的建议吗?
05:15
Everyone大家 ever do what
their mom妈妈 told them to do?
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在座有人曾遵循母亲的建议吗?
05:18
I rarely很少 did,
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我几乎没有
05:20
but what my mom妈妈 said to me was,
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但我母亲跟我说的是
05:22
one day, she handed me a newspaper报纸,
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有一天,她递给我一张报纸
05:25
a headline标题 which哪一个 said,
here we have a huge巨大 change更改.
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标题写的是
我们将会有巨大的改变
05:30
And that change更改 is China中国
entering进入 the United联合的 Nations国家.
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这个改变就是中国进入联合国
05:36
1971, I had just turned转身 14 years年份 of age年龄,
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1971年,我刚满14岁
05:39
and she handed me this headline标题.
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她给我看了这个标题
05:41
And she said, "Understand理解 this,
learn学习 this,
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然后她说,“去理解,去学习
05:43
because it's going to affect影响 your future未来."
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因为这会影响你的未来。“
05:46
So being存在 a very good student学生 of history历史,
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所以作为历史学科的好学生
05:50
I decided决定 that the best最好 thing
for me to do was, in fact事实,
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我决定最适合我的,其实
05:53
to go off and learn学习 Chinese中文.
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就是立马去学中文
05:55
The great thing about learning学习 Chinese中文
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对于学中文来说,很棒的一件事
05:57
is that your Chinese中文 teacher老师
gives you a new name名称.
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就是你的中文老师会给你起一个新名字
06:00
And so they gave me this name名称:
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所以他们给我这个名字:
06:03
Kè, which哪一个 means手段 to overcome克服 or to conquer征服,
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克,意思就是去克服,去征服
06:08
and Wén, and that's the character字符
for literature文学 or the arts艺术.
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文,这个汉字代表文学艺术
06:13
Kè Wén, Conqueror征服者 of the Classics.
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克文,经典文化的征服者
06:17
Any of you guys called "Kevin凯文"?
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有人的名字是凯文吗?
06:20
It's a major重大的 lift电梯 from being存在 called Kevin凯文
to be called Conqueror征服者 of the Classics.
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从”凯文“到”经典文化的征服者“,确实是一大提升啊
06:24
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
06:25
I've been called Kevin凯文 all my life.
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我一辈子都被人叫凯文
06:27
Have you been called Kevin凯文 all your life?
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你们也是否一辈子都被叫凯文呢?
06:29
Would you prefer比较喜欢 to be called
Conqueror征服者 of the Classics?
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你是否想要被叫成”经典文化的征服者“?
06:32
And so I went off after that
and joined加盟 the Australian澳大利亚 Foreign国外 Service服务,
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大学毕业后我加入澳大利亚外交部服务
06:36
but here is where pride自豪 -- before pride自豪,
there always comes a fall秋季.
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但是这个地方让我在得到荣誉之前先跌了一个跟头
06:43
So there I am in the embassy大使馆 in Beijing北京,
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那时我在北京的大使馆
06:45
off to the Great Hall大厅 of the People
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准备和我们的大使去人民大会堂
06:47
with our ambassador大使, who had asked me
to interpret for his first meeting会议
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他让我在人民大会堂
06:51
in the Great Hall大厅 of the People.
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为他的第一次会议做翻译
06:53
And so there was I.
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所以我就在那儿
06:54
If you've been to a Chinese中文 meeting会议,
it's a giant巨人 horseshoe马蹄铁.
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如果你参加过中国的会议
你就会发现现场是个马蹄铁形
06:57
At the head of the horsehoe马蹄
are the really serious严重 pooh-bahs维尼bahs,
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马蹄的顶端坐着非常严肃的大人物
07:00
and down the end结束 of the horseshoe马蹄铁
are the not-so-serious不那么严重 pooh-bahs维尼bahs,
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沿着马蹄下来是一些不怎么严肃的大人物
07:03
the junior初级 woodchucks旱獭 like me.
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和一些像我一样的小兵小卒
07:05
And so the ambassador大使
began开始 with this inelegant不雅 phrase短语.
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然后大使用了一句直白做了开场白
07:08
He said, "China中国 and Australia澳大利亚
are currently目前 enjoying享受 a relationship关系
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他说,“澳中关系目前
07:13
of unprecedented史无前例 closeness亲近."
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是空前的亲密。”
07:16
And I thought to myself,
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我就对自己说
07:18
"That sounds声音 clumsy笨拙. That sounds声音 odd.
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“这听起来很笨拙,很奇怪啊
07:22
I will improve提高 it."
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我要改改。“
07:24
Note注意 to file文件: Never do that.
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友情提醒:千万不用这么做
07:27
It needed需要 to be a little more elegant优雅,
a little more classical古典,
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这句话要稍微优雅些,稍微经典些
07:30
so I rendered呈现 it as follows如下.
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所以经过我的渲染,如下
07:32
[In Chinese中文]
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"澳中关系最近处于高潮关系"
07:37
There was a big pause暂停
on the other side of the room房间.
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在房间的另一边,是久久的沉默
07:40
You could see the giant巨人 pooh-bahs维尼bahs
at the head of the horseshoe马蹄铁,
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你可以看到马蹄顶端的那些大人物
07:44
the blood血液 visibly明显地 draining排水
from their faces面孔,
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他们脸蹭地一下就充血了
07:47
and the junior初级 woodchucks旱獭
at the other end结束 of the horseshoe马蹄铁
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然后马蹄另一端的那些年轻的小兵小将们
07:50
engaged订婚 in peals笑声 of
unrestrained自在 laughter笑声.
148
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爆发出一阵阵大笑
07:53
Because when I rendered呈现 his sentence句子,
149
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因为当我重新渲染这句话的时候
07:55
"Australia澳大利亚 and China中国 are
enjoying享受 a relationship关系
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“澳中关系目前
07:57
of unprecedented史无前例 closeness亲近,"
151
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是空前的亲密。”
07:59
in fact事实, what I said was that
Australia澳大利亚 and China中国
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实际上,我说的是澳大利亚和中国
08:02
were now experiencing经历 fantastic奇妙 orgasm性高潮.
153
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正在享受绝美的性高潮
08:05
(Laughter笑声)
154
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(笑声)
08:11
That was the last time
I was asked to interpret.
155
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这也是我最后一次被叫去做翻译
08:15
But in that little story故事,
there's a wisdom智慧, which哪一个 is,
156
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但在这个小故事中,却蕴含着道理,就是
08:17
as soon不久 as you think you know something
about this extraordinary非凡 civilization文明
157
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哪怕你觉得你已经知道这个拥有5000年历史大国
08:21
of 5,000 years年份 of continuing继续 history历史,
158
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博大精深的文明
08:23
there's always something new to learn学习.
159
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总有新的知识值得你去学习
08:27
History历史 is against反对 us
160
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当谈到美国与中国
08:29
when it comes to the U.S. and China中国
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共筑共同的未来时
08:31
forging锻造 a common共同 future未来 together一起.
162
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历史总是与我们背道而驰
08:34
This guy up here?
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上面的这个人
08:35
He's not Chinese中文 and he's not American美国.
164
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他不是中国人也不是美国人
08:37
He's Greek希腊语. His name's名字的 Thucydides修昔底德.
165
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他是希腊人,名字叫修昔底德
08:39
He wrote the history历史
of the Peloponnesian伯罗奔尼撒 Wars战争.
166
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他写伯罗奔尼撒战争的历史
08:42
And he made制作 this extraordinary非凡 observation意见
167
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他对雅典和斯巴达
08:45
about Athens雅典 and Sparta斯巴达.
168
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有着卓越的观察研究
08:47
"It was the rise上升 of Athens雅典
and the fear恐惧 that this inspired启发 in Sparta斯巴达
169
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“正是雅典的崛起,以及由此引发的斯巴达的恐惧
08:50
that made制作 war战争 inevitable必然."
170
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导致战争不可避免”
08:52
And hence于是, a whole整个 literature文学 about
something called the Thucydides修昔底德 Trap陷阱.
171
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所以,有了所谓的“修昔底德陷阱”
08:57
This guy here? He's not American美国
and he's not Greek希腊语. He's Chinese中文.
172
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这个人,他不是美国人也不是希腊人
他是中国人
09:01
His name名称 is Sun太阳 Tzu慈济.
He wrote "The Art艺术 of War战争,"
173
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他的名字叫孙子
他写了《孙子兵法》
09:03
and if you see his statement声明 underneath,
it's along沿 these lines线:
174
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如果你读他的叙述,也就是下面这行字:
09:07
"Attack攻击 him where he is unprepared措手不及,
appear出现 where you are not expected预期."
175
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“攻其无备, 出其不意”
09:12
Not looking good so far
for China中国 and the United联合的 States状态.
176
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中国和美国目前看起来不太乐观
09:16
This guy is an American美国.
His name's名字的 Graham格雷厄姆 Allison佳佳.
177
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这个人是美国人,名字叫格拉阿姆埃里森
09:19
In fact事实, he's a teacher老师
at the Kennedy肯尼迪 School学校
178
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2600
他是波士顿肯尼迪学校
09:21
over there in Boston波士顿.
179
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1278
的一名老师
09:23
He's working加工 on a single project项目
at the moment时刻, which哪一个 is,
180
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他目前在忙一个项目,就是
09:26
does the Thucydides修昔底德 Trap陷阱
about the inevitably必将 of war战争
181
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关于两股崛起的力量引发的
09:29
between之间 rising升起 powers权力
and established既定 great powers权力
182
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不可避免的战争的修昔底德陷阱
09:32
apply应用 to the future未来
of China-U中国-U.S. relations关系?
183
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是否会应验于中美未来的关系呢?
09:35
It's a core核心 question.
184
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这是个核心问题
09:36
And what Graham格雷厄姆 has doneDONE
is explore探索 15 cases in history历史
185
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格拉阿姆研究了自1500年以来
09:40
since以来 the 1500s
186
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历史上的15个案子
09:43
to establish建立 what the precedents先例 are.
187
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看看前例都是怎样的
09:45
And in 11 out of 15 of them,
188
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15个案子中的11个
09:47
let me tell you,
189
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让我告诉你们
09:49
they've他们已经 ended结束 in catastrophic灾难性的 war战争.
190
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它们都已灾难性的战争收尾
09:53
You may可能 say, "But Kevin凯文 --
191
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3436
你可能会说,“但是,凯文——
09:56
or Conqueror征服者 of the Classics --
192
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2299
或称你为经典文化的征服者——
09:58
that was the past过去.
193
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2182
那是过去了
10:00
We live生活 now in a world世界
of interdependence相互依存 and globalization全球化.
194
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我们现在生活在一个相互依靠,全球化的世界
10:04
It could never happen发生 again."
195
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1463
这种事情不可能再发生了。”
10:05
Guess猜测 what?
196
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猜怎么着?
10:06
The economic经济 historians历史学家
tell us that in fact事实,
197
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经济历史学家告诉我们
10:09
the time which哪一个 we reached到达
the greatest最大 point
198
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2319
事实上我们达到经济一体化和全球化
10:11
of economic经济 integration积分 and globalization全球化
199
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最鼎盛的时期
10:14
was in 1914,
200
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2571
是在1914年
10:17
just before that happened发生, World世界 War战争 I,
201
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4133
就在第一次世界大战之前,
10:21
a sobering发人深省 reflection反射 from history历史.
202
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这可是发人省心的史鉴
10:24
So if we are engaged订婚
in this great question
203
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2554
所以如果我们思考这个问题
10:27
of how China中国 thinks, feels感觉,
204
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3205
中国是怎么想的
10:30
and positions位置 itself本身
towards the United联合的 States状态,
205
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是怎样在美国面前定位自己的
10:34
and the reverse相反,
206
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1486
然后想下美国
10:35
how do we get to the baseline底线
207
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1881
我们怎样才能认识到
10:37
of how these two countries国家
and civilizations文明
208
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这两个国家这两种文明
10:40
can possibly或者 work together一起?
209
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协同发展的底线
10:43
Let me first go to, in fact事实,
210
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我先来说说
10:46
China's中国的 views意见 of the U.S.
and the rest休息 of the West西.
211
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中国对美国以及西方国家的观念
10:48
Number one: China中国 feels感觉
as if it's been humiliated羞辱
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第一:中国知道在过去的一百年历史里
10:51
at the hands of the West西
through通过 a hundred years年份 of history历史,
213
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从鸦片战争开始
10:54
beginning开始 with the Opium鸦片 Wars战争.
214
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1788
备受西方列强的欺辱
10:56
When after that, the Western西 powers权力
carved China中国 up into little pieces,
215
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3808
之后,西方列强瓜分中国
11:00
so that by the time
it got to the '20s and '30s,
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所以在20年代30年代时
11:02
signs迹象 like this one appeared出现
on the streets街道 of Shanghai上海.
217
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像这样的告示牌贴上了上海大街小巷
11:05
["No dogs小狗 and Chinese中文 allowed允许"]
218
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[狗与华人不得入内]
11:06
How would you feel if you were Chinese中文,
219
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1970
如果你是中国人,在你的国家
11:08
in your own拥有 country国家,
if you saw that sign标志 appear出现?
220
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看到这样的牌子,你会有何感受?
11:11
China中国 also believes相信 and feels感觉
221
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中国同时也相信
11:15
as if, in the events事件 of 1919,
at the Peace和平 Conference会议 in Paris巴黎,
222
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4621
在1919年,巴黎和会上
11:20
when Germany's德国 colonies群落 were given特定 back
223
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1896
当德国的殖民地
11:21
to all sorts排序 of countries国家
around in the world世界,
224
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2144
被归还到世界各国手里时
11:24
what about German德语 colonies群落 in China中国?
225
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1858
德国在中国的殖民地是什么情况呢?
11:25
They were, in fact事实, given特定 to Japan日本.
226
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2554
它们全给了日本
11:28
When Japan日本 then invaded入侵 China中国 in the 1930s
227
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4109
当日本在30年代入侵中国时
11:32
the world世界 looked看着 away and was indifferent冷漠
to what would happen发生 to China中国.
228
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3668
全世界都袖手旁观
11:36
And then, on top最佳 of that,
the Chinese中文 to this day believe
229
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2857
另外,今天的中国人也相信
11:39
that the United联合的 States状态 and the West西
230
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1687
美国和西方国家
11:40
do not accept接受 the legitimacy合法
of their political政治 system系统
231
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并不接受中国政治体系的合法性
11:43
because it's so radically根本 different不同
from those of us who come
232
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2890
因为它和我们这些自由民主国家的
11:46
from liberal自由主义的 democracies民主,
233
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1290
有着根本的区别
11:47
and believe that the United联合的 States状态
to this day is seeking
234
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2816
中国也相信,今天的美国
11:50
to undermine破坏 their political政治 system系统.
235
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2438
在伺机破坏他们的政治体系
11:52
China中国 also believes相信
that it is being存在 contained
236
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3018
中国也相信
11:55
by U.S. allies盟国 and by those
with strategic战略 partnerships伙伴关系 with the U.S.
237
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4853
他们被美国和美国的战略伙伴
12:00
right around its periphery周边.
238
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2624
在周边给包围了
12:03
And beyond all that,
the Chinese中文 have this feeling感觉
239
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2484
除此之外,中国人觉得
12:05
in their heart of hearts心中
and in their gut肠道 of guts胆量
240
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3228
打心底里,打肺腑里深信
12:08
that those of us in the collective集体 West西
241
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西方各国的我们
12:13
are just too damned该死 arrogant傲慢.
242
721176
3692
太过高傲了
12:16
That is, we don't recognize认识
the problems问题 in our own拥有 system系统,
243
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3947
就是相信,我们没办法意识到自己体系内
12:20
in our politics政治 and our economics经济学,
244
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1858
政治方面, 经济方面的问题
12:22
and are very quick
to point the finger手指 elsewhere别处,
245
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2391
然后我们就去别人那里指手画脚
12:25
and believe that, in fact事实,
we in the collective集体 West西
246
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3762
他们也相信,西方列国的我们
12:28
are guilty有罪 of a great bunch of hypocrisy假意.
247
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3808
应为我们的虚伪感到羞愧
12:32
Of course课程, in international国际 relations关系,
248
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3413
当然,在国际关系中
12:36
it's not just the sound声音
of one hand clapping拍手.
249
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3959
一个巴掌是拍不响的
12:40
There's another另一个 country国家 too,
and that's called the U.S.
250
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2682
还有另外一个国家呢,那就是美国
12:42
So how does the U.S.
respond响应 to all of the above以上?
251
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2554
那么美国史如何回应以上这一切的呢?
12:45
The U.S. has a response响应 to each of those.
252
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2136
美国对此一一作出回应
12:47
On the question of
is the U.S. containing China中国,
253
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2503
其中一个是美国包围中国
12:49
they say, "No, look at the history历史 of
the Soviet苏联 Union联盟. That was containment遏制."
254
757881
3678
他们说,“不,看苏联的历史,那才是包围。”
12:53
Instead代替, what we have doneDONE
in the U.S. and the West西
255
761559
2410
相反,我们在美国和西方国家所做的
12:55
is welcome欢迎 China中国
into the global全球 economy经济,
256
763969
1974
是欢迎中国来到世界经济中
12:57
and on top最佳 of that, welcome欢迎 them
into the World世界 Trade贸易 Organization组织.
257
765943
3436
另外,我们欢迎他们来到世界贸易组织
13:01
The U.S. and the West西 say China中国 cheats秘籍
258
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1873
美国和西方国家说中国
13:03
on the question
of intellectual知识分子 property属性 rights权利,
259
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2306
在知识产权这问题上作假
13:05
and through通过 cyberattacks网络攻击
on U.S. and global全球 firms公司.
260
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4319
对美国和跨国公司进行网络攻击
13:09
Furthermore此外, the United联合的 States状态
says that the Chinese中文 political政治 system系统
261
777877
3576
还有,美国说中国的政治体系
13:13
is fundamentally从根本上 wrong错误
262
781453
2879
的根本是错误的
13:16
because it's at such这样 fundamental基本的 variance方差
263
784332
3297
因为他们在人权,民主,法律上,
13:19
to the human人的 rights权利, democracy民主,
and rule规则 of law that we enjoy请享用
264
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3251
和美国以及西方国家
13:22
in the U.S. and the collective集体 West西.
265
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2624
有着原则性的差别
13:25
And on top最佳 of all the above以上,
what does the United联合的 States状态 say?
266
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3157
除此之外,美国说了什么?
13:28
That they fear恐惧 that China中国 will,
when it has sufficient足够 power功率,
267
796661
5108
他们害怕中国,当达到一定国力时
13:33
establish建立 a sphere领域 of influence影响
in Southeast东南 Asia亚洲 and wider更宽的 East Asia亚洲,
268
801769
4017
会对东南亚和东亚其它地区产生大规模的影响
13:37
boot the United联合的 States状态 out,
269
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1904
把美国踢出局
13:39
and in time, when it's powerful强大 enough足够,
270
807690
2020
当一定时候,当中国国力强盛时
13:41
unilaterally单方面 seek寻求 to change更改
the rules规则 of the global全球 order订购.
271
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4009
会单方面寻机改变世界秩序
13:45
So apart距离 from all of that,
it's just fine and dandy花花公子,
272
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2702
除了这些吵闹,中美关系
13:48
the U.S.-China-中国 relationship关系.
273
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1394
还是平和融洽
13:49
No real真实 problems问题 there.
274
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2205
没什么大问题
13:52
The challenge挑战, though虽然,
is given特定 those deep-rooted刻骨 feelings情怀,
275
820020
4922
而问题,在于那些根深蒂固的感觉
13:56
those deep-rooted刻骨 emotions情绪
and thought patterns模式,
276
824942
2995
那些根深蒂固的情绪
以及思考模式
13:59
what the Chinese中文 call "Sīwéi,"
ways方法 of thinking思维,
277
827937
2810
中国人称之为“思维”,思考方式
14:02
how can we craft手艺 a basis基础
for a common共同 future未来 between之间 these two?
278
830747
4458
我们要如何为两国共同的未来打造一个基础呢?
14:07
I argue争论 simply只是 this:
279
835205
1631
我简单说下我的观点:
14:08
We can do it on the basis基础 on a framework骨架
280
836836
1945
我们可以在有建设性的现实主义框架上
14:10
of constructive建设性 realism现实主义
for a common共同 purpose目的.
281
838781
4575
为了共同目标,建造这个基础
14:15
What do I mean by that?
282
843356
1973
什么意思呢?
14:17
Be realistic实际 about the things
that we disagree不同意 on,
283
845329
2345
就是对我们有分歧的事物,要面对现实
14:19
and a management管理 approach途径
that doesn't enable启用
284
847674
2275
以一种管理手段
14:21
any one of those differences分歧
to break打破 into war战争 or conflict冲突
285
849949
2856
不让任何差异导致战争或冲突
14:24
until直到 we've我们已经 acquired后天
the diplomatic外交 skills技能 to solve解决 them.
286
852805
3553
直到我们找到外交手段去解决它们
14:28
Be constructive建设性 in areas of the
bilateral双边, regional区域性 and global全球 engagement订婚
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两国在双边,区域,以及全球对话上
14:32
between之间 the two,
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要有建设性
14:33
which哪一个 will make a difference区别
for all of humankind人类.
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这对全人类都会有好处
14:36
Build建立 a regional区域性 institution机构
capable of cooperation合作 in Asia亚洲,
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建立促进在亚洲合作的区域机构
14:40
an Asia-Pacific亚太 community社区.
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一个亚太共同体
14:42
And worldwide全世界, act法案 further进一步,
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全球性范围的,则要做得更远些
14:44
like you've begun开始 to do
at the end结束 of last year
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像你们去年年末开始那样
14:47
by striking引人注目 out against反对 climate气候 change更改
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携手合力共同对付全球气候变化问题
14:49
with hands joined加盟 together一起
rather than fists拳头 apart距离.
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877301
3994
而非拳拳相向。
14:53
Of course课程, all that happens发生
if you've got a common共同 mechanism机制
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当然,这一切只有在你们有共同机制
14:56
and political政治 will to achieve实现 the above以上.
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以及共同政治意图,才能取得以上目标
14:58
These things are deliverable交付.
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2694
这些都是可以做到的
15:01
But the question is,
are they deliverable交付 alone单独?
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889004
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但问题是,这些能单独实现吗?
15:05
This is what our head
tells告诉 us we need to do,
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这是我们大脑告诉我们要去做的
15:07
but what about our heart?
301
895969
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但我们的心呢?
15:09
I have a little experience经验
in the question back home
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897873
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在澳洲时,我在一个问题上有个小经历
15:12
of how you try to bring带来
together一起 two peoples人们
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问题就是如何把两个民族团结在一起
15:16
who, frankly坦率地说, haven't没有 had
a whole整个 lot in common共同 in the past过去.
304
904235
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老实说,他们在过去并没有太多共同点
15:19
And that's when I apologized道歉
to Australia's澳大利亚 indigenous土著 peoples人们.
305
907857
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所以我当时跟澳洲本土人民道歉了
15:23
This was a day of reckoning清算
in the Australian澳大利亚 government政府,
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911434
3785
这是澳洲政府,澳洲国会
15:27
the Australian澳大利亚 parliament议会,
and for the Australian澳大利亚 people.
307
915219
2692
也是为澳洲人民清算的一天
15:29
After 200 years年份 of unbridled恣意 abuse滥用
towards the first Australians澳大利亚人,
308
917911
4783
在对澳洲原住民无情虐待200年后
15:34
it was high time that we white白色 folks乡亲
said we were sorry.
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922694
5178
是时候让我们白种人为之道歉了
15:39
The important重要 thing --
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927872
1370
重要的是——
15:41
(Applause掌声)
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929242
5046
(掌声)
15:46
The important重要 thing that I remember记得
is staring凝视 in the faces面孔
312
934288
2922
重要的是,我记得
15:49
of all those from Aboriginal土著 Australia澳大利亚
313
937210
2481
当他们来听道歉的时候
15:51
as they came来了 to listen to this apology歉意.
314
939691
2809
看着那些来自澳洲本土人民的脸
15:54
It was extraordinary非凡 to see, for example,
315
942500
3808
很特别的经历,例如
15:58
old women妇女 telling告诉 me the stories故事
of when they were five years年份 old
316
946308
3924
老妇人们对我述说他们五岁时
16:02
and literally按照字面 ripped撕开 away
from their parents父母,
317
950232
2996
被人从父母身边夺走的故事
16:05
like this lady淑女 here.
318
953228
1601
像这边这位女士
16:06
It was extraordinary非凡 for me
to then be able能够 to embrace拥抱
319
954829
4133
当原住民老人进入国会大厦时
16:10
and to kiss Aboriginal土著 elders长老
as they came来了 into the parliament议会 building建造,
320
958962
3948
我能够去拥抱并亲吻他们,
对我来说是很特别的事
16:14
and one woman女人 said to me,
321
962910
1256
有一位老妇人对我说
16:16
it's the first time a white白色 fella小伙子
had ever kissed her in her life,
322
964166
3155
这是她人生第一次被白种人亲吻
16:19
and she was over 70.
323
967321
1951
她当时已经年过70了
16:21
That's a terrible可怕 story故事.
324
969272
2507
这是个悲伤的故事
16:23
And then I remember记得
this family家庭 saying to me,
325
971779
2462
然后我记得这个家庭跟我说
16:26
"You know, we drove开车 all the way
from the far North down to Canberra堪培拉
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974241
4063
“你知道吗,我们从北边一直开车
16:30
to come to this thing,
327
978304
1370
到堪培拉,来到这里
16:31
drove开车 our way through通过 redneck乡下人 country国家.
328
979674
2183
一路开过乡下农村
16:33
On the way back, stopped停止 at a cafe咖啡店
after the apology歉意 for a milkshake奶昔."
329
981857
6617
在回去的路上,在道歉会后
在一家咖啡馆停下来要了杯奶昔
16:40
And they walked into this cafe咖啡店
quietly悄悄, tentatively姑且, gingerly小心翼翼,
330
988474
5572
他们安静地,试探性地,小心翼翼地
走进这家咖啡馆
16:46
a little anxious.
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994046
1463
有点不安
16:47
I think you know what I'm talking about.
332
995509
2554
我想你们知道我在说什么
16:50
But the day after the apology歉意,
what happened发生?
333
998063
3808
但在道歉会那天之后,发生了什么呢?
16:53
Everyone大家 in that cafe咖啡店,
every一切 one of the white白色 folks乡亲,
334
1001871
4110
咖啡馆里的每个人,每个白种人
16:57
stood站在 up and applauded叫好.
335
1005981
2786
都站起来鼓掌
17:00
Something had happened发生 in the hearts心中
of these people in Australia澳大利亚.
336
1008767
5136
在澳洲的人民心里,有了些变化
17:05
The white白色 folks乡亲, our Aboriginal土著
brothers兄弟 and sisters姐妹,
337
1013903
2689
白种人,我们的土著兄弟姐妹
17:08
and we haven't没有 solved解决了
all these problems问题 together一起,
338
1016592
3228
我们还没有共同解决所有的这些问题
17:11
but let me tell you,
there was a new beginning开始
339
1019820
3668
但让我告诉你们,
我们有了一个新的开始
17:15
because we had gone走了 not just to the head,
340
1023488
2416
因为我们不但用脑去思考
17:17
we'd星期三 gone走了 also to the heart.
341
1025904
2658
我们更用心去感受
17:20
So where does that conclude得出结论
in terms条款 of the great question
342
1028562
2871
所以就我们今晚所提出的那个大问题
17:23
that we've我们已经 been asked
to address地址 this evening晚间,
343
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2187
就是中美关系的未来这一问题
17:25
which哪一个 is the future未来
of U.S.-China-中国 relations关系?
344
1033620
2964
这个故事的启发在哪呢?
17:28
The head says there's a way forward前锋.
345
1036584
2299
大脑告诉我们前方有路
17:30
The head says there is a policy政策 framework骨架,
there's a common共同 narrative叙述,
346
1038883
3691
大脑告诉我们有一个政策框架, 有共同的语言
17:34
there's a mechanism机制
through通过 regular定期 summitry高阶层会议
347
1042574
1927
我们可以通过常规峰会
17:36
to do these things
and to make them better.
348
1044501
1904
这样的途径去做这些事情,改善这些事情
17:38
But the heart must必须 also find a way
to reimagine重新构想 the possibilities可能性
349
1046405
5573
但我们的心也必须寻找途径
17:43
of the America-China美国 - 中国 relationship关系,
350
1051978
1904
去实现中美关系的这些可能性
17:45
and the possibilities可能性 of China's中国的
future未来 engagement订婚 in the world世界.
351
1053882
3660
去实现未来中国与世界交流的可能性
17:49
Sometimes有时, folks乡亲, we just need
to take a leap飞跃 of faith信仰
352
1057542
6083
各位,有时候,我们只是需要跨越信任的一步
17:55
not quite相当 knowing会心 where we might威力 land土地.
353
1063625
3924
也许我们不知道我们可能在哪里着陆
17:59
In China中国, they now talk about
the Chinese中文 Dream梦想.
354
1067549
4273
在中国,他们在谈论中国梦
18:03
In America美国, we're all familiar
with the term术语 "the American美国 Dream梦想."
355
1071822
5526
在美国,我们已经对”美国梦“很熟悉了
18:09
I think it's time, across横过 the world世界,
356
1077348
3134
我觉得是时候,在全世界
18:12
that we're able能够 to think also
of something we might威力 also call
357
1080482
5132
我们可以思考一些我们可以称之为
18:17
a dream梦想 for all humankind人类.
358
1085614
5142
人类梦的东西了
18:23
Because if we do that,
359
1091368
1959
因为如果我们这么做
18:25
we might威力 just change更改 the way
360
1093327
2650
我们可能可以改变
18:27
that we think about each other.
361
1095977
4552
我们评价对方的方式
18:35
[In Chinese中文]
362
1103923
3111
[人类梦]
18:39
That's my challenge挑战 to America美国.
That's my challenge挑战 to China中国.
363
1107034
3367
那是我对美国的挑战
那是我对中国的挑战
18:42
That's my challenge挑战 to all of us,
364
1110401
2484
那是我对我们所有人的挑战
18:44
but I think where there's a will
and where there is imagination想像力
365
1112885
3297
但我觉得有愿望,有想象力
18:48
we can turn this into a future未来
366
1116182
2044
我们就能通过和平共同繁荣
18:50
driven驱动 by peace和平 and prosperity繁荣
367
1118226
2345
将之实现
18:52
and not once一旦 again repeat重复
368
1120571
2020
而非再一次
18:54
the tragedies悲剧 of war战争.
369
1122591
2113
重蹈战争悲剧的覆辙
18:56
I thank you.
370
1124704
1858
我谢谢你们
18:58
(Applause掌声)
371
1126562
5435
(掌声)
19:03
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: Thanks谢谢 so much for that.
Thanks谢谢 so much for that.
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1131997
3179
克里斯·安德森:非常感谢,非常感谢
19:07
It feels感觉 like you yourself你自己
have a role角色 to play in this bridging桥接.
373
1135176
4597
听起来你在这中间有着重要的责任
19:11
You, in a way, are uniquely独特地 placed放置
to speak说话 to both sides双方.
374
1139773
4351
你,在某种方式,处于特殊地位去向双方演说。
19:16
Kevin凯文 Rudd鲢鱼: Well, what we Australians澳大利亚人
do best最好 is organize组织 the drinks饮料,
375
1144124
3253
凯文·路德:嗯,我们澳洲人们最棒的就是组织酒会
19:19
so you get them together一起 in one room房间,
and we suggest建议 this and suggest建议 that,
376
1147377
3527
所以你把他们召集到一个房间来,
然后我们提议这提议那
19:22
then we go and get the drinks饮料.
377
1150904
1433
然后我们喝喝酒
19:24
But no, look, for all of us
who are friends朋友
378
1152337
2004
但,因为都是两国的朋友,中国和美国
19:26
of these two great countries国家,
America美国 and China中国,
379
1154341
2262
所以对于我们来说
19:28
you can do something.
380
1156603
1339
你可以有所作为
19:29
You can make a practical实际的 contribution贡献,
381
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2299
你可以有实际性的贡献
19:32
and for all you good folks乡亲 here,
382
1160241
1881
而且对于在座的所有好人来说
19:34
next下一个 time you meet遇到 someone有人 from China中国,
383
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1625
下一次你见到从中国来的人们
19:35
sit down and have a conversation会话.
384
1163747
1612
坐下来,聊聊天
19:37
See what you can find out about
where they come from and what they think,
385
1165359
3455
看看你能否发现他们来自哪里,有何想法
19:40
and my challenge挑战 for all
the Chinese中文 folks乡亲
386
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2038
然后我对所有准备有空看这个TED Talk
19:42
who are going to watch
this TEDTED Talk at some time
387
1170852
2329
的那些中国人的挑战
19:45
is do the same相同.
388
1173181
2361
也这样做
19:47
Two of us seeking to change更改 the world世界
can actually其实 make a huge巨大 difference区别.
389
1175542
3901
双方都想要改变世界就能真的能做出巨大的改变
19:51
Those of us up the middle中间,
we can make a small contribution贡献.
390
1179443
2902
我们这些处在中间的人,也可以做出些小贡献
19:54
CACA: Kevin凯文, all power功率 to you,
my friend朋友. Thank you.
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2356
克:凯文,加油,我的朋友,谢谢你。
19:56
KRKR: Thank you. Thank you, folks乡亲.
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2126
凯:谢谢,谢谢你们。
19:58
(Applause掌声)
393
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2043
(掌声)
Translated by Lee Li
Reviewed by Jenny Yang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Rudd - International relations expert
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming.

Why you should listen

Drawing on a deep knowledge of Chinese culture, language and history (and as a Senior Fellow with Harvard’s Belfer Center), Kevin Rudd and his colleagues study alternate courses for US-China relations that guide us away from a seemingly inevitable confrontation. As Prime Minister during the global financial crisis (and as one of the founders of the G20), Rudd helped keep Australia out of recession with a stimulus strategy lauded by the IMF as exemplary among its member states. Rudd is also President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank specializing in Asian affairs.

In March 2015, Rudd published "China under Xi Jinping: Alternative Futures for U.S.-China Relations," a series of three addresses on American and Chinese values, perceptions, interests, and strategic intentions, and their impact on the possibility of developing a common narrative for U.S.-China relations for the future.

More profile about the speaker
Kevin Rudd | Speaker | TED.com