ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analyst
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood.

Why you should listen

Michele Wucker's term "gray rhino" has moved markets and shaped financial policies around the world. She is the author of the international bestseller The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, which China's leadership has used to frame and communicate its efforts to crack down on financial risk.

Drawing on three decades of experience in financial media and think tank management, turnarounds and policy analysis, Wucker is founder of the Chicago-based strategy firm Gray Rhino & Company, which helps organizations to better manage gray rhino risks. She speaks regularly on risk management, leadership, macro strategy and decision-making for high-level global audiences. She has been recognized as a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum and a Guggenheim Fellow, among other honors.

Wucker's first two books, Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right and Why the Cocks Fight: Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola, continue to influence policy debates.

More profile about the speaker
Michele Wucker | Speaker | TED.com
TED Salon U.S. Air Force

Michele Wucker: Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them

Michele Wucker: 为什么我们无视那些显而易见的问题——以及如何解决

Filmed:
2,179,064 views

问什么我们常常忽视那些大问题直到时间太晚,比如经济危机,气候变化?政策策略家Michele Wucker鼓励我们用“灰犀牛”——那些可以预防却被我们忽视的危险,去替代“黑天鹅”的神话——小概率,无法预见又无法避免的灾难。她向我们展示了为什么可遇见的危机仍让我们意外——并且给出了一些信息,有可能有一个"犀牛"正支配你的生活。
- Author, policy analyst
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
So what if there were
a highly高度 obvious明显 problem问题
0
1375
3976
假如有一个非常明显的问题
00:17
right in front面前 of you?
1
5375
1601
摆在你面前,
00:19
One that everyone大家 was talking about,
2
7000
3143
一个所有人都在讨论的,
00:22
one that affected受影响 you directly.
3
10167
2291
直接影响你的问题。
00:25
Would you do everything
within your power功率 to fix固定 things
4
13542
4309
请问你会在事情变得更糟糕之前,
尽你所能去解决它吗?
00:29
before they got worse更差?
5
17875
1458
00:32
Don't be so sure.
6
20667
1726
不要太确定你的答案。
00:34
We are all much more likely容易
than any of us would like to admit承认
7
22417
4434
我们比那些肯承认自己会错过的人
00:38
to miss小姐 what's right in front面前 of our eyes眼睛.
8
26875
2976
更有可能错过那些在眼前发生的事情。
00:41
And in fact事实,
9
29875
1434
而且就事实上来说,
00:43
we're sometimes有时 most likely容易
to turn away from things
10
31333
3726
有时我们更有可能逃避事情的原因
00:47
precisely恰恰 because of the threat威胁
that they represent代表 to us,
11
35083
4643
正是来自这些事情给我们的,
00:51
in business商业, life and the world世界.
12
39750
2125
在事业方面,生活方面,
乃至世界方面的风险。
00:55
So I want to give you an example
from my world世界, economic经济 policy政策.
13
43125
4292
我想举一个我身边的例子
——经济政策。
01:00
So when Alan艾伦 Greenspan格林斯潘
was head of the Federal联邦 Reserve保留,
14
48708
3310
当阿兰·格林斯潘还是
联邦储备局局长的时候
01:04
his entire整个 job工作 was to watch out
for problems问题 in the US economy经济
15
52042
5476
他的整个工作就是小心地监督
美国经济的潜在问题,
01:09
and to make sure that they
didn't spin out of control控制.
16
57542
2726
并确保它们没有失去控制。
01:12
So, after 2006,
17
60292
1934
所以,2006年以后,
01:14
when real真实 estate房地产 prices价格 peaked见顶,
18
62250
2559
当房地产价格达到顶峰的时候,
01:16
more and more and more
respected尊敬 leaders领导者 and institutions机构
19
64833
4601
越来越多有名望的领导人和机构
01:21
started开始 to sound声音 the alarm报警 bells钟声
20
69458
2601
开始敲响
风险贷款和危险市场泡沫的警钟。
01:24
about risky有风险 lending贷款
and dangerous危险 market市场 bubbles泡泡.
21
72083
4042
01:29
As you know, in 2008
it all came来了 tumbling翻筋斗 down.
22
77250
3809
如各位所知,2008年一切都轰然倒塌。
01:33
Banks银行 collapsed倒塌,
23
81083
1560
银行倒闭,
01:34
global全球 stock股票 markets市场
lost丢失 nearly几乎 half their value,
24
82667
3226
全世界的股票市场丢失了
接近一半的价值,
数百万人失去他们作为抵押的家园。
01:37
millions百万 and millions百万 of people
lost丢失 their homes家园 to foreclosure丧失抵押品赎回权.
25
85917
4601
而在社会基层,
01:42
And at the bottom底部,
26
90542
1267
01:43
nearly几乎 one in 10 Americans美国人
was out of work.
27
91833
3375
将近十分之一的美国人失业了。
01:48
So after things calmed平静 down a little bit,
28
96875
2351
所以在事情缓和了一些以后,
01:51
Greenspan格林斯潘 and many许多 others其他
came来了 out with a postmortem事后 and said,
29
99250
4726
格林斯潘和许多人
从这个低谷中走出来说:
01:56
"Nobody没有人 could have predicted预料到的 that crisis危机."
30
104000
2042
“没有人会有可能
提前预知这场危机。”
01:58
They called it "a black黑色 swan天鹅."
31
106792
2476
他们叫它“黑天鹅”。
02:01
Something that was unimaginable不可思议,
32
109292
2809
一个很难想象的,
不可预知并且完全难以置信的事情。
02:04
unforeseeable不可预见的 and completely全然 improbable难以置信.
33
112125
4000
02:09
A total surprise.
34
117500
2018
一场彻头彻尾的惊喜。
只是它不总是一个惊喜。
02:11
Except it wasn't always such这样 a surprise.
35
119542
3892
比如说,我在曼哈顿的公寓
在不到四年的时间里
02:15
For example, my Manhattan曼哈顿 apartment公寓
nearly几乎 doubled翻倍 in value
36
123458
4393
价值几乎翻了一倍。
02:19
in less than four years年份.
37
127875
2059
02:21
I saw the writing写作 on the wall
and I sold出售 it.
38
129958
3268
我获得了一些信息,
于是我将它出售了。
02:25
(Laughter笑声)
39
133250
2601
(笑声)
02:27
(Applause掌声)
40
135875
2250
(鼓掌)
02:31
So, a lot of other people
also saw the warning警告,
41
139792
2226
总之,很多其他人
也看到了同样的警示,
02:34
spoke out publicly公然
42
142042
1625
公开地说了出来,
但是这些信息都被忽视了。
02:36
and they were ignored忽视.
43
144958
1976
02:38
So we didn't know exactly究竟
what the crisis危机 was going to look like,
44
146958
4226
所以我们并不准确地知道
这场危机到底会是什么模样,
02:43
not the exact精确 parameters参数,
45
151208
2018
不知道确切的参数,
但是我们可以说
02:45
but we could all tell
46
153250
1851
02:47
that the thing coming未来 at us
was as dangerous危险, visible可见 and predictable可预测
47
155125
6351
这个即将到来的事情和
一只向我们急速冲来的巨型灰犀牛
02:53
as a giant巨人 gray灰色 rhino犀牛
charging充电 right at us.
48
161500
3208
一样的危险,可见,可预判。
02:57
The black黑色 swan天鹅 lends借给 itself本身
49
165792
2017
这只黑天鹅助长了我们的观点,
02:59
to the idea理念 that we don't have
power功率 over our futures期货.
50
167833
3875
那就是我们无法掌控我们的未来。
03:04
And unfortunately不幸, the less control控制
that we think we have,
51
172750
4809
不幸的是,我们越是这样想,
我们就越有可能对之不予重视,
03:09
the more likely容易 we are to downplay淡化 it
52
177583
3101
03:12
or ignore忽视 it entirely完全.
53
180708
2000
甚至完全忽视它。
03:16
And this dangerous危险 dynamic动态
masks面具 another另一个 problem问题:
54
184458
3851
这个危险的情况
还掩盖了另一个问题:
03:20
that most of the problems问题
that we're facing面对
55
188333
2185
那就是我们所面对的困难
03:22
are so probable可能 and obvious明显,
56
190542
2601
都极有可能发生且极度明显,
03:25
they're things that we can see,
but we still don't do anything about.
57
193167
3458
它们是我们所能看见的,
但是我们依然不采取任何措施。
03:29
So I created创建 the gray灰色 rhino犀牛 metaphor隐喻
58
197792
2476
所以我引用了巨型灰犀牛的比喻,
来描绘我所认为的“急需”。
03:32
to meet遇到 what I felt was an urgent紧急 need.
59
200292
3059
为了帮助我们焕然一新,
03:35
To help us to take a fresh新鲜 look,
60
203375
2518
03:37
with the same相同 passion
that people had for the black黑色 swan天鹅,
61
205917
2684
用我们曾经对待“黑天鹅”那样的热情,
03:40
but this time, for the things
that were highly高度 obvious明显,
62
208625
3851
但这次为了非常明显的事件,
03:44
highly高度 probable可能, but still neglected被忽视的.
63
212500
3958
很可能发生,但是依然被忽视的事件。
03:50
Those are the gray灰色 rhinos犀牛.
64
218542
2809
那些事件就是灰犀牛。
03:53
Once一旦 you start开始 looking for gray灰色 rhinos犀牛,
65
221375
2309
一旦你开始寻找这种动物,
03:55
you see them in the headlines新闻头条 every一切 day.
66
223708
2709
你就会每天都在头条看到它的名字。
03:59
And so what I see in the headlines新闻头条
is another另一个 big gray灰色 rhino犀牛,
67
227250
3726
然而我在头条所看到的
是另外一头灰犀牛。
04:03
a new highly高度 probable可能 financial金融 crisis危机.
68
231000
4167
一个全新的,极有可能
发生的金融危机。
04:08
And I wonder奇迹 if we've我们已经 learned学到了 anything
in the last 10 years年份.
69
236458
3851
于是我在想我们是否真的
从过去的十年里学到了什么。
04:12
So if you listen
to Washington华盛顿 or Wall Street,
70
240333
3393
如果你是从华盛顿或者
华尔街听到的消息,
04:15
you could almost几乎 be forgiven原谅 for thinking思维
that only smooth光滑 sailing帆船 laid铺设 ahead.
71
243750
6792
你认为一切顺利就情有可原。
04:23
But in China中国, where I spend a lot of time,
72
251375
3101
但是在中国,一个我投入了
许多时间研究的国家,
04:26
the conversation会话 is totally完全 different不同.
73
254500
2892
对话内容完全不一样。
04:29
The entire整个 economic经济 team球队,
74
257416
2226
所有的经济小组,
04:31
all the way up to president主席
Xi Jinping锦屏 himself他自己,
75
259666
2977
一直到习近平总书记本人,
04:34
talk very specifically特别 and clearly明确地
76
262667
2726
都会很清晰具体地讲述经济风险,
04:37
about financial金融 risks风险 as gray灰色 rhinos犀牛,
77
265417
3851
并用上灰犀牛的比喻,
并且讨论他们会怎样制服它。
04:41
and how they can tame驯服 them.
78
269292
2226
04:43
Now, to be sure, China中国 and the US
79
271542
1601
很明显,中国和美国
04:45
have very, very different不同
systems系统 of government政府,
80
273167
2267
有着差异很大的政府系统,
04:47
which哪一个 affects影响 what
they're able能够 to do or not.
81
275458
2310
这影响着他们的能力范围,
04:49
And many许多 of the root causes原因
for their economic经济 problems问题
82
277792
2809
并且两个国家的经济问题根源
也完全不同。
04:52
are totally完全 different不同.
83
280625
1351
04:54
But it's no secret秘密
that both countries国家 have problems问题
84
282000
3601
虽说如此,两国都存在问题已不是秘密
04:57
with debt债务, with inequality不等式
and with economic经济 productivity生产率.
85
285625
3958
例如债务,不平等和经济生产力。
05:03
So how come the conversations对话
are so different不同?
86
291042
2208
到底为何这些对话如此不同?
05:06
You could actually其实 ask this question,
87
294167
1851
其实这个问题
不仅适用于国家,
05:08
not just about countries国家,
88
296042
2309
05:10
but about just about everyone大家.
89
298375
2309
也适用于每个人。
05:12
The auto汽车 companies公司 that put safety安全 first
90
300708
3893
那些把安全放在第一位的汽车公司,
05:16
and the ones那些 that don't bother
to recall召回 their shoddy以次充好 cars汽车
91
304625
2768
和一些从不考虑召回
他们的劣质汽车的公司,
05:19
until直到 after people die.
92
307417
2500
直到有人丧命。
05:24
The grandparents祖父母 who,
in preparing准备 for the inevitable必然 --
93
312417
5476
那些为不可避免的离世
而做准备的祖父母——
05:29
the ones那些 who have the eulogy written书面,
94
317917
1791
那些已经将写好悼词和
05:33
the menu菜单 for the funeral葬礼 lunch午餐.
95
321125
1893
葬礼午餐菜单的,
05:35
(Laughter笑声)
96
323042
1476
(笑声)
05:36
My grandparents祖父母 did.
97
324542
1309
我的祖父母就这样做了,
05:37
(Laughter笑声)
98
325875
1476
(笑)
05:39
And everything but the final最后 date日期
chiseled轮廓分明 into the gravestone墓碑.
99
327375
5101
包括所有其他的事情,除了
刻到坟墓上的最后日期。
05:44
But then you have the grandparents祖父母
on the other side,
100
332500
2477
但当你又有与我相反的祖父母,
05:47
who don't put
their final最后 affairs事务 in order订购,
101
335001
2517
他们不规划自己临终时的事情,
05:49
who don't get rid摆脱 of all the junk破烂
102
337542
1601
他们不轻易摆脱掉那些
05:51
they've他们已经 been hoarding囤积
for decades几十年 and decades几十年
103
339167
2101
他们已经囤积了数十载的废旧物品,
05:53
and leave离开 their kids孩子 to deal合同 with it.
104
341292
1791
并且留给他们的子女去解决。
05:56
So what makes品牌 the difference区别
between之间 one side and the other?
105
344208
4060
那么两种方式的差别在哪里?
06:00
Why do some people
see things and deal合同 with them,
106
348292
2601
为什么有的人会注意到问题并解决,
06:02
and the other ones那些 just look away?
107
350917
2250
而其他人仅会无视?
06:06
So the first one has to do
with culture文化, society社会,
108
354958
3310
首先是与文化和社会因素有关。
06:10
the people around you.
109
358292
1458
那些你身边的人
06:12
If you think that someone有人 around you
110
360917
2684
如果你认为在你遇到困难的时候,
06:15
is going to help
pick you up when you fall秋季,
111
363625
2768
你身边的人会帮助你,
06:18
you're much more likely容易
to see a danger危险 as being存在 smaller.
112
366417
3208
那么你极有可能会忽视一些危险。
06:22
And that allows允许 us to take
good chances机会, not just the bad ones那些.
113
370542
4684
那么这就使我们能够
把握好机会,而不是坏的。
06:27
For example, like risking冒着 criticism批评
114
375250
2393
比如对风险的评判,
06:29
when you talk about the danger危险
that nobody没有人 wants you to talk about.
115
377667
3517
当你谈到没有人愿意跟你聊的风险
06:33
Or taking服用 the opportunities机会
that are kind of scary害怕,
116
381208
2893
或者把握住有一点吓人的机会。
06:36
so in their own拥有 way are gray灰色 rhinos犀牛.
117
384125
3268
那么对于他们而言,这是经常被提示
却未被重视的大概率风险,即“灰犀牛”。
06:39
So the US has a very
individualist个人主义者 culture文化 -- go it alone单独.
118
387417
3958
在美国就有一种
个人主义的文化——独自完成。
06:44
And paradoxically自相矛盾,
119
392125
1601
矛盾的是,
06:45
this makes品牌 many许多 Americans美国人
much less open打开 to change更改
120
393750
3726
这使得很多美国人更不敢去改变,
06:49
and taking服用 good risks风险.
121
397500
1559
并且承担有回报的风险。
06:51
In China中国, by contrast对比,
122
399083
1935
在中国,与之相反,
06:53
people believe that the government政府
is going to keep problems问题 from happening事件,
123
401042
3726
人民相信政府会把问题在根源解决,
06:56
which哪一个 might威力 not always be what happens发生,
but people believe it.
124
404792
3434
其实事实上并不总如此,
但是人民选择相信。
07:00
They believe they can rely依靠
on their families家庭,
125
408250
2101
他们相信他们可以依靠他们的家庭,
07:02
so that makes品牌 them more likely容易
to take certain某些 risks风险.
126
410375
3018
这样让他们更有能力承担相应的风险,
07:05
Like buying购买 Beijing北京 real真实 estate房地产,
127
413417
1601
像是在北京买房,,
07:07
or like being存在 more open打开 about the fact事实
that they need to change更改 direction方向,
128
415042
3892
或者在面对需要改变目标
或方向时更加从容,
07:10
and in fact事实, the pace步伐 of change更改 in China中国
is absolutely绝对 amazing惊人.
129
418958
3875
并且事实上,中国改变的速度是惊人的。
07:15
Second第二 of all,
130
423958
1851
其次,
07:17
how much do you know about a situation情况,
131
425833
2143
你对当下的情况了解多少,
07:20
how much are you willing愿意 to learn学习?
132
428000
1875
你是否意愿去学习?
07:22
And are you willing愿意 to see things
even when it's not what you want?
133
430958
3726
以及你是否愿意看到
你其实并不想看到的事情,
07:26
So many许多 of us are so unlikely不会
134
434708
2893
我们很多人不太可能
07:29
to pay工资 attention注意 to the things
that we just want to black黑色 out,
135
437625
3268
愿意去关注我们想要屏蔽的事情,
07:32
we don't like them.
136
440917
1267
我们不喜欢它们。
07:34
We pay工资 attention注意 to what we want to see,
what we like, what we agree同意 with.
137
442208
3750
我们会注意想看到的,
喜欢以及认同的事情。
07:39
But we have the opportunity机会
and the ability能力
138
447125
2434
但是我们有能力和机会
07:41
to correct正确 those blind spots斑点.
139
449583
2601
去矫正那些盲点。
07:44
I spend a lot of time
talking with people of all walks散步 of life
140
452208
3268
我花了很多时间和各行各业的人交流
07:47
about the gray灰色 rhinos犀牛 in their life
and their attitudes态度.
141
455500
3018
关于他们人生中的“灰犀牛”
和他们对此的态度。
07:50
And you might威力 think
142
458542
1559
你可能会认为
07:52
that the people
who are more afraid害怕 of risk风险,
143
460125
2476
那些更加害怕去冒险的人,
07:54
who are more sensitive敏感 to them,
144
462625
1684
那些对事情更敏感的人,
07:56
would be the ones那些
who would be less open打开 to change更改.
145
464333
3435
会更难接受变动。
07:59
But the opposite对面 is actually其实 true真正.
146
467792
2017
但是事实恰恰相反。
08:01
I've found发现 that the people
147
469833
1310
我发现
那些更愿意认识到他们身边的问题,
08:03
who are wilingwiling to recognize认识
the problems问题 around them
148
471167
2476
08:05
and make plans计划
149
473667
1351
并且做出计划的人,
08:07
are the ones那些 who are able能够
to tolerate容忍 more risk风险, good risk风险,
150
475042
3559
才是更能够承受风险,好的风险,
08:10
and deal合同 with the bad risk风险.
151
478625
2643
并解决坏风险的人。
08:13
And it's because as we seek寻求 information信息,
152
481292
2976
这是因为我们在寻找信息时,
08:16
we increase增加 our power功率 to do something
about the things that we're afraid害怕 of.
153
484292
4583
我们会提高自己解决
那些自己害怕的事情的能力。
08:21
And that brings带来 me to my third第三 point.
154
489708
2101
这就引出了我的第三个观点。
08:23
How much control控制 do you feel that you have
155
491833
3393
你对你人生中
“灰犀牛”的把控有到少?
08:27
over the gray灰色 rhinos犀牛 in your life?
156
495250
1958
08:30
One of the reasons原因 we don't act法案
157
498167
2142
一个我们很少表现出来的原因,
就是我们经常感到无助。
08:32
is that we often经常 feel too helpless无助.
158
500333
2768
08:35
Think of climate气候 change更改,
it can feel so big,
159
503125
2934
考虑到气候变化的时候,
它是一件如此大的事情,
08:38
that not a single one of us
could make a difference区别.
160
506083
4018
并不是我们中的任何一人
可以独自解决的。
08:42
So some people go about life denying否认 it.
161
510125
2643
因此,有些人开始怀疑人生。
08:44
Other people blame everyone大家
except themselves他们自己.
162
512792
3184
其他人开始责怪
除他们自己以外的所有人。
08:48
Like my friend朋友 who says
he's not ever going to give up his SUVSUV
163
516000
2933
就像我朋友曾经说的,
他永远不会放弃他的SUV,
08:50
until直到 they stop building建造
coal煤炭 plants植物 in China中国.
164
518957
2186
除非他们停止在中国挖油田。
08:53
But we have an opportunity机会 to change更改.
165
521167
3392
但是我们有机会去改变。
08:56
No two of us are the same相同.
166
524583
2143
没有任何两个人是一样的。
08:58
Every一切 single one of us has the opportunity机会
to change更改 our attitudes态度,
167
526750
4893
我们每一个人都有机会
去改变我们的态度,
09:03
our own拥有 and those of people around us.
168
531667
2726
我们自己和身边人的态度。
09:06
So today今天, I want to invite邀请 all of you
169
534417
3226
所以今天,我想要邀请你们所有人
09:09
to join加入 me in helping帮助 to spark火花
an open打开 and honest诚实 conversation会话
170
537667
4684
同我一起开展一个开诚布公的对话,
09:14
with the people around you,
171
542375
1476
和你们身边的人讨论
09:15
about the gray灰色 rhinos犀牛 in our world世界,
172
543875
3351
那些我们生活中的“灰犀牛”们,
09:19
and be brutally粗暴地 honest诚实
about how well we're dealing交易 with them.
173
547250
3934
并且绝对坦诚地聊一下
我们会如何完美地解决它们。
09:23
I hear so many许多 times in the States状态,
174
551208
2643
我在美国听过太多次
09:25
"Well, of course课程 we should
deal合同 with obvious明显 problems问题,
175
553875
2684
“我们当然需要解决那些问题,
09:28
but if you don't see
what's in front面前 of you,
176
556583
2060
但是如果你看不见你面前的东西,
09:30
you're either dumb or ignorant愚昧."
177
558667
2142
那你要么是愚昧,要么是无知。”
09:32
That's what they say,
and I could not disagree不同意 more.
178
560833
3768
这就是他们的说辞,而我非常不赞同。
09:36
If you don't see what's in front面前 of you,
179
564625
2684
如果你看不见迫在眉睫的事务,
09:39
you're not dumb, you're not ignorant愚昧,
180
567333
3268
你并不是愚昧,也不是无知,
09:42
you're human人的.
181
570625
1684
你只是个普通的人类。
09:44
And once一旦 we all recognize认识
that shared共享 vulnerability漏洞,
182
572333
5226
只要我们发现共有的脆弱,
09:49
that gives us the power功率 to open打开 our eyes眼睛,
183
577583
4393
会给我们勇气去睁开眼睛
09:54
to see what's in front面前 of us
184
582000
1934
去看见眼前的事物,
09:55
and to act法案 before we get trampled践踏.
185
583958
3459
并在被践踏前及时做出反应。
10:01
(Applause掌声)
186
589208
3292
(掌声)
Translated by Rachel Zhu
Reviewed by Yuhan Wu

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analyst
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood.

Why you should listen

Michele Wucker's term "gray rhino" has moved markets and shaped financial policies around the world. She is the author of the international bestseller The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, which China's leadership has used to frame and communicate its efforts to crack down on financial risk.

Drawing on three decades of experience in financial media and think tank management, turnarounds and policy analysis, Wucker is founder of the Chicago-based strategy firm Gray Rhino & Company, which helps organizations to better manage gray rhino risks. She speaks regularly on risk management, leadership, macro strategy and decision-making for high-level global audiences. She has been recognized as a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum and a Guggenheim Fellow, among other honors.

Wucker's first two books, Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right and Why the Cocks Fight: Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola, continue to influence policy debates.

More profile about the speaker
Michele Wucker | Speaker | TED.com