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Michele Wucker: Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them
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Why do we often neglect big problems, like the financial crisis and climate change, until it's too late? Policy strategist Michele Wucker urges us to replace the myth of the "black swan" -- that rare, unforeseeable, unavoidable catastrophe -- with the reality of the "gray rhino," the preventable danger that we choose to ignore. She shows why predictable crises catch us by surprise -- and lays out some signs that there may be a charging rhino in your life right now.
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analyst
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood. Full bio
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So what if there were
a highly obvious problem
a highly obvious problem
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right in front of you?
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One that everyone was talking about,
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one that affected you directly.
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Would you do everything
within your power to fix things
within your power to fix things
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before they got worse?
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Don't be so sure.
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We are all much more likely
than any of us would like to admit
than any of us would like to admit
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to miss what's right in front of our eyes.
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And in fact,
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we're sometimes most likely
to turn away from things
to turn away from things
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precisely because of the threat
that they represent to us,
that they represent to us,
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in business, life and the world.
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So I want to give you an example
from my world, economic policy.
from my world, economic policy.
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So when Alan Greenspan
was head of the Federal Reserve,
was head of the Federal Reserve,
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his entire job was to watch out
for problems in the US economy
for problems in the US economy
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and to make sure that they
didn't spin out of control.
didn't spin out of control.
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So, after 2006,
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when real estate prices peaked,
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more and more and more
respected leaders and institutions
respected leaders and institutions
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started to sound the alarm bells
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about risky lending
and dangerous market bubbles.
and dangerous market bubbles.
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As you know, in 2008
it all came tumbling down.
it all came tumbling down.
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Banks collapsed,
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global stock markets
lost nearly half their value,
lost nearly half their value,
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millions and millions of people
lost their homes to foreclosure.
lost their homes to foreclosure.
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And at the bottom,
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nearly one in 10 Americans
was out of work.
was out of work.
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So after things calmed down a little bit,
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Greenspan and many others
came out with a postmortem and said,
came out with a postmortem and said,
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"Nobody could have predicted that crisis."
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They called it "a black swan."
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Something that was unimaginable,
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unforeseeable and completely improbable.
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A total surprise.
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Except it wasn't always such a surprise.
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For example, my Manhattan apartment
nearly doubled in value
nearly doubled in value
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in less than four years.
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I saw the writing on the wall
and I sold it.
and I sold it.
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(Laughter)
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(Applause)
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So, a lot of other people
also saw the warning,
also saw the warning,
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spoke out publicly
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and they were ignored.
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So we didn't know exactly
what the crisis was going to look like,
what the crisis was going to look like,
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not the exact parameters,
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but we could all tell
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that the thing coming at us
was as dangerous, visible and predictable
was as dangerous, visible and predictable
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as a giant gray rhino
charging right at us.
charging right at us.
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The black swan lends itself
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to the idea that we don't have
power over our futures.
power over our futures.
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And unfortunately, the less control
that we think we have,
that we think we have,
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the more likely we are to downplay it
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or ignore it entirely.
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And this dangerous dynamic
masks another problem:
masks another problem:
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that most of the problems
that we're facing
that we're facing
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are so probable and obvious,
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they're things that we can see,
but we still don't do anything about.
but we still don't do anything about.
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So I created the gray rhino metaphor
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to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
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To help us to take a fresh look,
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with the same passion
that people had for the black swan,
that people had for the black swan,
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but this time, for the things
that were highly obvious,
that were highly obvious,
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highly probable, but still neglected.
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Those are the gray rhinos.
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Once you start looking for gray rhinos,
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you see them in the headlines every day.
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And so what I see in the headlines
is another big gray rhino,
is another big gray rhino,
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a new highly probable financial crisis.
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And I wonder if we've learned anything
in the last 10 years.
in the last 10 years.
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So if you listen
to Washington or Wall Street,
to Washington or Wall Street,
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you could almost be forgiven for thinking
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
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But in China, where I spend a lot of time,
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the conversation is totally different.
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The entire economic team,
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all the way up to president
Xi Jinping himself,
Xi Jinping himself,
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talk very specifically and clearly
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about financial risks as gray rhinos,
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and how they can tame them.
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Now, to be sure, China and the US
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have very, very different
systems of government,
systems of government,
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which affects what
they're able to do or not.
they're able to do or not.
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And many of the root causes
for their economic problems
for their economic problems
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are totally different.
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But it's no secret
that both countries have problems
that both countries have problems
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with debt, with inequality
and with economic productivity.
and with economic productivity.
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So how come the conversations
are so different?
are so different?
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You could actually ask this question,
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not just about countries,
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but about just about everyone.
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The auto companies that put safety first
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and the ones that don't bother
to recall their shoddy cars
to recall their shoddy cars
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until after people die.
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The grandparents who,
in preparing for the inevitable --
in preparing for the inevitable --
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the ones who have the eulogy written,
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the menu for the funeral lunch.
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(Laughter)
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My grandparents did.
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(Laughter)
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And everything but the final date
chiseled into the gravestone.
chiseled into the gravestone.
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But then you have the grandparents
on the other side,
on the other side,
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who don't put
their final affairs in order,
their final affairs in order,
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who don't get rid of all the junk
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they've been hoarding
for decades and decades
for decades and decades
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and leave their kids to deal with it.
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So what makes the difference
between one side and the other?
between one side and the other?
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Why do some people
see things and deal with them,
see things and deal with them,
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and the other ones just look away?
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So the first one has to do
with culture, society,
with culture, society,
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the people around you.
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If you think that someone around you
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is going to help
pick you up when you fall,
pick you up when you fall,
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you're much more likely
to see a danger as being smaller.
to see a danger as being smaller.
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And that allows us to take
good chances, not just the bad ones.
good chances, not just the bad ones.
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For example, like risking criticism
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when you talk about the danger
that nobody wants you to talk about.
that nobody wants you to talk about.
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Or taking the opportunities
that are kind of scary,
that are kind of scary,
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so in their own way are gray rhinos.
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So the US has a very
individualist culture -- go it alone.
individualist culture -- go it alone.
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And paradoxically,
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this makes many Americans
much less open to change
much less open to change
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and taking good risks.
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In China, by contrast,
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people believe that the government
is going to keep problems from happening,
is going to keep problems from happening,
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which might not always be what happens,
but people believe it.
but people believe it.
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They believe they can rely
on their families,
on their families,
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so that makes them more likely
to take certain risks.
to take certain risks.
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Like buying Beijing real estate,
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or like being more open about the fact
that they need to change direction,
that they need to change direction,
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and in fact, the pace of change in China
is absolutely amazing.
is absolutely amazing.
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Second of all,
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how much do you know about a situation,
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how much are you willing to learn?
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And are you willing to see things
even when it's not what you want?
even when it's not what you want?
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So many of us are so unlikely
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to pay attention to the things
that we just want to black out,
that we just want to black out,
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we don't like them.
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We pay attention to what we want to see,
what we like, what we agree with.
what we like, what we agree with.
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But we have the opportunity
and the ability
and the ability
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to correct those blind spots.
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I spend a lot of time
talking with people of all walks of life
talking with people of all walks of life
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about the gray rhinos in their life
and their attitudes.
and their attitudes.
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And you might think
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that the people
who are more afraid of risk,
who are more afraid of risk,
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who are more sensitive to them,
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would be the ones
who would be less open to change.
who would be less open to change.
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But the opposite is actually true.
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I've found that the people
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who are wiling to recognize
the problems around them
the problems around them
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and make plans
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are the ones who are able
to tolerate more risk, good risk,
to tolerate more risk, good risk,
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and deal with the bad risk.
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And it's because as we seek information,
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we increase our power to do something
about the things that we're afraid of.
about the things that we're afraid of.
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And that brings me to my third point.
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How much control do you feel that you have
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over the gray rhinos in your life?
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One of the reasons we don't act
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is that we often feel too helpless.
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Think of climate change,
it can feel so big,
it can feel so big,
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that not a single one of us
could make a difference.
could make a difference.
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So some people go about life denying it.
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Other people blame everyone
except themselves.
except themselves.
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Like my friend who says
he's not ever going to give up his SUV
he's not ever going to give up his SUV
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until they stop building
coal plants in China.
coal plants in China.
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But we have an opportunity to change.
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No two of us are the same.
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Every single one of us has the opportunity
to change our attitudes,
to change our attitudes,
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our own and those of people around us.
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So today, I want to invite all of you
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to join me in helping to spark
an open and honest conversation
an open and honest conversation
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with the people around you,
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about the gray rhinos in our world,
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and be brutally honest
about how well we're dealing with them.
about how well we're dealing with them.
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I hear so many times in the States,
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"Well, of course we should
deal with obvious problems,
deal with obvious problems,
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but if you don't see
what's in front of you,
what's in front of you,
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you're either dumb or ignorant."
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That's what they say,
and I could not disagree more.
and I could not disagree more.
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If you don't see what's in front of you,
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you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,
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you're human.
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And once we all recognize
that shared vulnerability,
that shared vulnerability,
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that gives us the power to open our eyes,
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to see what's in front of us
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and to act before we get trampled.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analystMichele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood.
Why you should listen
Michele Wucker's term "gray rhino" has moved markets and shaped financial policies around the world. She is the author of the international bestseller The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, which China's leadership has used to frame and communicate its efforts to crack down on financial risk.
Drawing on three decades of experience in financial media and think tank management, turnarounds and policy analysis, Wucker is founder of the Chicago-based strategy firm Gray Rhino & Company, which helps organizations to better manage gray rhino risks. She speaks regularly on risk management, leadership, macro strategy and decision-making for high-level global audiences. She has been recognized as a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum and a Guggenheim Fellow, among other honors.
Wucker's first two books, Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right and Why the Cocks Fight: Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola, continue to influence policy debates.
Michele Wucker | Speaker | TED.com