TEDSummit 2019
Margaret Heffernan: The human skills we need in an unpredictable world
玛格丽特 · 赫弗南: 不可预知的世界里需要哪些人类技能
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作家和企业家玛格丽特 · 赫弗南（Margaret Heffernan）说，我们越依赖令我们高效的技术，我们就越难以应对意外事件。 她分享了为什么我们需要少一些技术、多一些不那么完美的人类技能 —— 想象力、谦逊、勇敢——来解决未来不可预测时代的商业、政府和生活中的问题。 “我们勇于创造以前从未见过的东西，” 她说， “也可以创造出我们选择的任何未来。”
Margaret Heffernan - Management thinker
The former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray. Full bio
The former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Recently, the leadership team
of an American supermarket chain
of an American supermarket chain
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最近，一个美国连锁超市
的领导团队决定，
的领导团队决定，
00:16
decided that their business
needed to get a lot more efficient.
needed to get a lot more efficient.
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他们的业务需大幅提高效率，
00:19
So they embraced their digital
transformation with zeal.
transformation with zeal.
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所以，他们热情地接受了数字化转型，
00:24
Out went the teams
supervising meat, veg, bakery,
supervising meat, veg, bakery,
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原先的团队对肉类、
蔬菜、烘焙的管理，
蔬菜、烘焙的管理，
00:28
and in came an algorithmic task allocator.
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而今被一个任务分配算法取而代之。
00:32
Now, instead of people working together,
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现在，大家不再是一起工作，
00:35
each employee went, clocked in,
got assigned a task, did it,
got assigned a task, did it,
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而是每个员工到公司打卡、领任务，
完成任务后，再回来领更多任务。
00:39
came back for more.
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00:41
This was scientific
management on steroids,
management on steroids,
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这类似于对类固醇的科学管理，
将工作标准化后进行工作分配，
00:45
standardizing and allocating work.
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00:47
It was super efficient.
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它非常高效。
00:50
Well, not quite,
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不过也不完全是，
00:53
because the task allocator didn't know
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因为任务分配器不知道
客户何时会把一盒鸡蛋掉到地上，
00:55
when a customer was going
to drop a box of eggs,
to drop a box of eggs,
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也无法预测哪个皮孩子
会在何时撞翻展示架，
会在何时撞翻展示架，
00:58
couldn't predict when some crazy kid
was going to knock over a display,
was going to knock over a display,
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或者哪天当地高中
01:02
or when the local high school decided
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会决定第二天让每人带椰子去学校。
01:04
that everybody needed
to bring in coconuts the next day.
to bring in coconuts the next day.
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（笑声）
01:07
(Laughter)
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01:08
Efficiency works really well
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当你能准确预测出
01:10
when you can predict
exactly what you're going to need.
exactly what you're going to need.
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自己会需要什么时，效率非常重要。
01:13
But when the anomalous
or unexpected comes along --
or unexpected comes along --
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但是，当异常或意外出现时——
如孩子、顾客、椰子——
01:17
kids, customers, coconuts --
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01:19
well, then efficiency
is no longer your friend.
is no longer your friend.
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那么效率就不再是你的朋友了。
01:24
This has become a really crucial issue,
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这种处理意外的能力
01:26
this ability to deal with the unexpected,
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就变得非常关键了，
01:29
because the unexpected
is becoming the norm.
is becoming the norm.
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因为意外情况会成为常态。
01:33
It's why experts and forecasters
are reluctant to predict anything
are reluctant to predict anything
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这就是为什么专家
和预测人员不愿意预测
和预测人员不愿意预测
任何超过 400 天的事情。
01:37
more than 400 days out.
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01:41
Why?
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为什么？
01:42
Because over the last 20 or 30 years,
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因为在过去的 20 或 30 年里，
01:44
much of the world has gone
from being complicated
from being complicated
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世界上的许多地方
已经从繁杂变为复杂 ——-
01:48
to being complex --
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01:50
which means that yes, there are patterns,
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这意味着，模式虽然存在，
01:52
but they don't repeat
themselves regularly.
themselves regularly.
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但它们不会经常重复。
01:55
It means that very small changes
can make a disproportionate impact.
can make a disproportionate impact.
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这意味着，非常小的变化
可能会产生巨大影响；
可能会产生巨大影响；
02:00
And it means that expertise
won't always suffice,
won't always suffice,
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专业知识也许总是不够，
02:02
because the system
just keeps changing too fast.
just keeps changing too fast.
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因为系统变化太快。
02:08
So what that means
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也就是说，
世界上有大量的东西
02:10
is that there's a huge amount in the world
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现在无法预测。
02:13
that kind of defies forecasting now.
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这就是为什么英格兰银行会说，
“是的，会有另一次崩盘，
“是的，会有另一次崩盘，
02:16
It's why the Bank of England will say
yes, there will be another crash,
yes, there will be another crash,
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02:20
but we don't know why or when.
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但我们不知道为什么或何时发生。”
02:23
We know that climate change is real,
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我们知道气候变化是真实的，
02:26
but we can't predict
where forest fires will break out,
where forest fires will break out,
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但我们无法预测
哪里会有森林火灾，
哪里会有森林火灾，
02:29
and we don't know which factories
are going to flood.
are going to flood.
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也不知道哪些工厂会发生洪涝。
02:33
It's why companies are blindsided
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这就是为什么当一夜之间，
塑料吸管、塑料袋和瓶装水
从生活必需品变成人人喊打的产品，
从生活必需品变成人人喊打的产品，
02:36
when plastic straws
and bags and bottled water
and bags and bottled water
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02:40
go from staples to rejects overnight,
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制造公司却会感到不知所措；
02:45
and baffled when a change in social mores
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当社会动荡的变化
将明星变成贱民、
将明星变成贱民、
同事变成被驱逐的人时，
他们会感到困惑：
他们会感到困惑：
02:49
turns stars into pariahs
and colleagues into outcasts:
and colleagues into outcasts:
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02:55
ineradicable uncertainty.
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不可避免的不确定性。
02:59
In an environment that defies
so much forecasting,
so much forecasting,
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在令众多预测无效的环境中，
03:03
efficiency won't just not help us,
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效率不仅无法帮助我们，
反倒会破坏和削弱
我们的适应和应对能力。
我们的适应和应对能力。
03:06
it specifically undermines and erodes
our capacity to adapt and respond.
our capacity to adapt and respond.
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03:16
So if efficiency is no longer
our guiding principle,
our guiding principle,
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因此，如果效率不再是指导原则，
那么，我们该如何应对未来呢？
03:19
how should we address the future?
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什么样的思考才能真正帮到我们呢？
03:20
What kind of thinking
is really going to help us?
is really going to help us?
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03:23
What sort of talents
must we be sure to defend?
must we be sure to defend?
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我们必须要捍卫什么样的才能？
03:29
I think that, where in the past we used to
think a lot about just in time management,
think a lot about just in time management,
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过去我们经常思考“及时管理”，
现在，我认为我们必须
开始考虑“以防万一”，
开始考虑“以防万一”，
03:34
now we have to start thinking
about just in case,
about just in case,
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为一般情况下虽然很确定，
03:38
preparing for events
that are generally certain
that are generally certain
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但仍不能完全掌握的情况做准备。
03:41
but specifically remain ambiguous.
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03:45
One example of this is the Coalition
for Epidemic Preparedness, CEPI.
for Epidemic Preparedness, CEPI.
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其中一个例子是
流行病预防联盟，即 CEPI。
流行病预防联盟，即 CEPI。
我们知道将来会有更多流行病，
03:50
We know there will be
more epidemics in future,
more epidemics in future,
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但不知何地、何时、是哪种流行病。
03:54
but we don't know where or when or what.
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所以我们根本无法计划，
03:58
So we can't plan.
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04:00
But we can prepare.
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但我们可为此准备。
04:03
So CEPI's developing multiple vaccines
for multiple diseases,
for multiple diseases,
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因此，CEPI 正针对
多种疾病开发疫苗，
多种疾病开发疫苗，
04:09
knowing that they can't predict
which vaccines are going to work
which vaccines are going to work
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他们知道，无法预测
哪种疫苗会起作用、
哪种疫苗会起作用、
04:13
or which diseases will break out.
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或者说，哪种疾病会爆发。
04:15
So some of those vaccines
will never be used.
will never be used.
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因此，一些疫苗将永远用不到。
04:18
That's inefficient.
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这样做的效率很低，
04:20
But it's robust,
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但它很强大，
因为它提供了更多选择，
04:22
because it provides more options,
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这意味着我们不再依赖于
单一的技术解决方案。
单一的技术解决方案。
04:24
and it means that we don't depend
on a single technological solution.
on a single technological solution.
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04:30
Epidemic responsiveness
also depends hugely
also depends hugely
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对流行病的响应能力
很大程度上取决于
相互了解和信任的人。
相互了解和信任的人。
04:33
on people who know and trust each other.
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但建立这些关系需要时间，
04:36
But those relationships
take time to develop,
take time to develop,
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当流行病爆发时，时间总不够用。
04:39
time that is always in short supply
when an epidemic breaks out.
when an epidemic breaks out.
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因此，CEPI 眼下正在
建立关系、友谊、联盟，
建立关系、友谊、联盟，
04:43
So CEPI is developing relationships,
friendships, alliances now
friendships, alliances now
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04:50
knowing that some of those
may never be used.
may never be used.
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深谙其中一些可能永远用不到。
04:53
That's inefficient,
a waste of time, perhaps,
a waste of time, perhaps,
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这可能效率低、浪费时间，
但这种做法十分稳妥。
04:57
but it's robust.
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04:59
You can see robust thinking
in financial services, too.
in financial services, too.
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在金融服务中，
你也能看到稳健性思维。
你也能看到稳健性思维。
05:02
In the past, banks used to hold
much less capital
much less capital
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在过去，通常银行持有的资本
远远少于今天所需的资本，
05:06
than they're required to today,
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因为持有如此少的资本、
过于高效的做法
过于高效的做法
05:09
because holding so little capital,
being too efficient with it,
being too efficient with it,
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会首先使银行变得很脆弱。
05:12
is what made the banks
so fragile in the first place.
so fragile in the first place.
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05:16
Now, holding more capital
looks and is inefficient.
looks and is inefficient.
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现在，持有更多资本
看起来效率低，也确实效率低。
看起来效率低，也确实效率低。
但它很稳健，因为它可以
保护金融系统免受意外。
保护金融系统免受意外。
05:22
But it's robust, because it protects
the financial system against surprises.
the financial system against surprises.
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05:29
Countries that are really serious
about climate change
about climate change
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对气候变化非常认真的国家知道，
他们必须采用多种解决方案、
05:32
know that they have to adopt
multiple solutions,
multiple solutions,
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多种形式的可再生能源，
05:35
multiple forms of renewable energy,
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而不仅仅是一种。
05:38
not just one.
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05:40
The countries that are most advanced
have been working for years now,
have been working for years now,
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最先进的国家多年来一直致力于
改变水和食品供应和医疗保健系统，
05:44
changing their water and food supply
and healthcare systems,
and healthcare systems,
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因为他们认识到，
就算他们预测到了，
就算他们预测到了，
05:48
because they recognize that by the time
they have certain prediction,
they have certain prediction,
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到那时候再搜集
这些信息可能就太晚了。
这些信息可能就太晚了。
05:53
that information may very well
come too late.
come too late.
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05:57
You can take the same approach
to trade wars, and many countries do.
to trade wars, and many countries do.
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同样的方式也可以用来应对贸易战，
许多国家也是这样做的。
许多国家也是这样做的。
06:01
Instead of depending on a single
huge trading partner,
huge trading partner,
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与其依赖一个强有力的贸易伙伴，
不如试图成为每个人的朋友，
06:05
they try to be everybody's friends,
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06:07
because they know they can't predict
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因为他们知道无法预测，
06:10
which markets might
suddenly become unstable.
suddenly become unstable.
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哪些市场可能会突然变得不稳定。
06:14
It's time-consuming and expensive,
negotiating all these deals,
negotiating all these deals,
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所有这些交易的谈判耗时又昂贵，
但它很稳定，
06:18
but it's robust
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06:19
because it makes their whole economy
better defended against shocks.
better defended against shocks.
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因为它使整个经济体
能更好地抵御冲击。
能更好地抵御冲击。
06:24
It's particularly a strategy
adopted by small countries
adopted by small countries
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小国家尤其喜欢采用这样的策略，
06:28
that know they'll never have
the market muscle to call the shots,
the market muscle to call the shots,
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他们知道靠自己的市场力量
永远不可能做主，
永远不可能做主，
所以拥有朋友越多越好。
06:32
so it's just better to have
too many friends.
too many friends.
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06:37
But if you're stuck
in one of these organizations
in one of these organizations
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但如果你陷入其中一个
依然崇尚效率神话的组织里，
06:40
that's still kind of captured
by the efficiency myth,
by the efficiency myth,
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06:45
how do you start to change it?
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你又如何开始改变呢？
06:48
Try some experiments.
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尝试一些实验吧。
06:50
In the Netherlands,
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过去在荷兰，
06:51
home care nursing used to be run
pretty much like the supermarket:
pretty much like the supermarket:
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家庭护理业的运作非常像超市：
06:56
standardized and prescribed work
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标准化和规定的工作
量化到分钟：
06:59
to the minute:
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周一 9 分钟、周三 7 分钟、
07:01
nine minutes on Monday,
seven minutes on Wednesday,
seven minutes on Wednesday,
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周五 8 分钟。
07:04
eight minutes on Friday.
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护士们讨厌这些，
07:06
The nurses hated it.
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所以其中叫乔斯·德·勃洛克
（Jos de Blok）的人
（Jos de Blok）的人
07:08
So one of them, Jos de Blok,
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提议做一个实验。
07:11
proposed an experiment.
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07:13
Since every patient is different,
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由于每个患者都不同，
我们并不确切知道他们需要什么，
07:15
and we don't quite know
exactly what they'll need,
exactly what they'll need,
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为何不让护士来决定呢？
07:17
why don't we just leave it
to the nurses to decide?
to the nurses to decide?
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07:21
Sound reckless?
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听起来很鲁莽吗？
07:22
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
（掌声）
07:24
(Applause)
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在实验中，乔斯发现，
07:26
In his experiment, Jos found
the patients got better
the patients got better
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只需原来一半的时间，
患者反而恢复得更好了，
患者反而恢复得更好了，
07:30
in half the time,
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成本还下降了30％。
07:32
and costs fell by 30 percent.
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07:37
When I asked Jos what had surprised him
about his experiment,
about his experiment,
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当我问乔斯，实验的
哪个部分让他感到惊讶时，
哪个部分让他感到惊讶时，
他只是笑了笑，说道：
07:42
he just kind of laughed and he said,
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07:43
"Well, I had no idea it could be so easy
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“我没想到
这么容易就做出了如此巨大的改进，
07:47
to find such a huge improvement,
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因为这不是你坐在办公桌前
07:49
because this isn't the kind of thing
you can know or predict
you can know or predict
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或盯着电脑屏幕
就能了解或预知的事情。”
就能了解或预知的事情。”
07:53
sitting at a desk
or staring at a computer screen."
or staring at a computer screen."
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07:56
So now this form of nursing
has proliferated across the Netherlands
has proliferated across the Netherlands
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“所以，现在这种形式的护理
已在荷兰和世界各地蔓延开来。
08:00
and around the world.
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08:02
But in every new country
it still starts with experiments,
it still starts with experiments,
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但在每个新的国家，
它仍然从实验开始，
它仍然从实验开始，
因为每个地方都有所不同，
而且无法提前预测。
而且无法提前预测。
08:05
because each place is slightly
and unpredictably different.
and unpredictably different.
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08:11
Of course, not all experiments work.
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当然，并非所有实验都有效。
08:15
Jos tried a similar approach
to the fire service
to the fire service
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乔斯尝试了类似的消防服务方法，
08:18
and found it didn't work because
the service is just too centralized.
the service is just too centralized.
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发现它没什么用，因为服务过于集中。
08:21
Failed experiments look inefficient,
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失败的实验看起来效率低下，
08:24
but they're often the only way
you can figure out
you can figure out
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但它们往往是
弄清现实世界如何运作的唯一方法。
08:27
how the real world works.
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08:30
So now he's trying teachers.
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所以，现在他正在教育行业尝试。
08:34
Experiments like that require creativity
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像这样的实验需要创造力，
08:38
and not a little bravery.
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而不是单单一点勇气就可以的。
08:41
In England --
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在英格兰——
08:43
I was about to say in the UK,
but in England --
but in England --
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我正准备说在英国呢，
其实是在英格兰——
其实是在英格兰——
08:46
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:48
(Applause)
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（掌声）
08:53
In England, the leading rugby team,
or one of the leading rugby teams,
or one of the leading rugby teams,
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在英格兰，领先的橄榄球队，
或领先的橄榄球队之一
是撒拉逊人 （Saracens）。
是撒拉逊人 （Saracens）。
08:57
is Saracens.
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08:59
The manager and the coach there realized
that all the physical training they do
that all the physical training they do
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球队的经理和教练意识到，
他们做的全部体能训练
和数据驱动训练
和数据驱动训练
09:04
and the data-driven
conditioning that they do
conditioning that they do
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已变得通用化；
09:07
has become generic;
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09:08
really, all the teams
do exactly the same thing.
do exactly the same thing.
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实际上，所有球队都做同样的事情，
09:11
So they risked an experiment.
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所以，他们冒险做了一个实验。
09:14
They took the whole team away,
even in match season,
even in match season,
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即使还在赛季中，
他们依然带领整个团队去滑雪，
09:18
on ski trips
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09:19
and to look at social projects in Chicago.
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并观察芝加哥的社交项目。
09:23
This was expensive,
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这些活动费用很高，
09:24
it was time-consuming,
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又耗费时间，
让全队的橄榄球运动员
09:26
and it could be a little risky
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09:28
putting a whole bunch of rugby players
on a ski slope, right?
on a ski slope, right?
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待在滑雪坡上，
可能还是有点冒险的吧？
可能还是有点冒险的吧？
（笑声）
09:32
(Laughter)
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09:33
But what they found was that
the players came back
the players came back
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但他们发现，回来之后，
球员们更加忠诚、团队关系更坚固了。
09:36
with renewed bonds
of loyalty and solidarity.
of loyalty and solidarity.
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而现在，当他们在球场上
面临令人难以置信的压力时，
面临令人难以置信的压力时，
09:41
And now when they're on the pitch
under incredible pressure,
under incredible pressure,
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他们能做到经理所说的“镇静”——
09:45
they manifest what the manager
calls "poise" --
calls "poise" --
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09:50
an unflinching, unwavering dedication
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一种彼此间坚定不移、
09:54
to each other.
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毫不动摇的奉献精神。
09:56
Their opponents are in awe of this,
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他们的对手对此感到敬畏，
但又太被效率所束缚
而不敢尝试这种方式。
而不敢尝试这种方式。
10:00
but still too in thrall
to efficiency to try it.
to efficiency to try it.
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10:05
At a London tech company, Verve,
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伦敦有一家名叫
沃吾 （Verve）的科技公司，
沃吾 （Verve）的科技公司，
10:07
the CEO measures just about
everything that moves,
everything that moves,
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他们的首席执行官
量化了一切工作量，
量化了一切工作量，
但她找不到
10:11
but she couldn't find anything
that made any difference
that made any difference
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对公司生产力产生关键影响的东西。
10:14
to the company's productivity.
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因此，她设计了一个
她称之为“爱之周”的实验：
她称之为“爱之周”的实验：
10:16
So she devised an experiment
that she calls "Love Week":
that she calls "Love Week":
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整整一周，
10:20
a whole week where each employee
has to look for really clever,
has to look for really clever,
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每个员工
必须寻找队友所做的非常聪明、
有益、富有想象力的事情，
有益、富有想象力的事情，
10:24
helpful, imaginative things
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10:27
that a counterpart does,
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说出来，并赞美它。
10:28
call it out and celebrate it.
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这需要大量的时间和精力；
10:31
It takes a huge amount of time and effort;
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很多人会称它分散注意力。
10:33
lots of people would call it distracting.
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10:36
But it really energizes the business
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但它确实为企业注入了活力，
10:38
and makes the whole company
more productive.
more productive.
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使整个公司的生产力大幅提高。
10:44
Preparedness, coalition-building,
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准备就绪、联盟建设、
10:47
imagination, experiments,
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想象力、实验、
勇气 ——
10:50
bravery --
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10:53
in an unpredictable age,
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在不可预测的时代，
10:54
these are tremendous sources
of resilience and strength.
of resilience and strength.
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这些都是坚韧和力量的巨大来源。
11:00
They aren't efficient,
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虽然它们的效率不高，
11:04
but they give us limitless capacity
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但它们为我们提供了
无限的适应、变化和创新能力。
11:06
for adaptation, variation and invention.
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11:12
And the less we know about the future,
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我们对未来的了解越少，
就会越需要这些人类所拥有
的杂乱的、不可预测
的杂乱的、不可预测
11:14
the more we're going to need
these tremendous sources
these tremendous sources
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11:20
of human, messy, unpredictable skills.
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的技能的巨大来源。
11:27
But in our growing
dependence on technology,
dependence on technology,
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但是，随着对技术的日益依赖，
11:32
we're asset-stripping those skills.
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我们正在削减这些技能。
11:36
Every time we use technology
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每次我们使用科技
来推动做出决定或选择时、
11:40
to nudge us through a decision or a choice
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或者用科技来解读人的感受、
11:44
or to interpret how somebody's feeling
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11:46
or to guide us through a conversation,
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或用科技引导我们完成对话时，
11:48
we outsource to a machine
what we could, can do ourselves,
what we could, can do ourselves,
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我们是在将本来应该自己做
而且能做的事情外包给机器去完成，
而且能做的事情外包给机器去完成，
这是一项昂贵的交换。
11:54
and it's an expensive trade-off.
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11:57
The more we let machines think for us,
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让机器为我们思考得越多，
12:01
the less we can think for ourselves.
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我们就越不能为自己思考。
12:05
The more --
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越多的——
（掌声）
12:06
(Applause)
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医生看数字医疗记录的时间越多，
12:11
The more time doctors spend
staring at digital medical records,
staring at digital medical records,
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12:16
the less time they spend
looking at their patients.
looking at their patients.
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他们用来问诊病人的时间就会越少。
12:20
The more we use parenting apps,
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育儿应用程序用得越多，
12:23
the less we know our kids.
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我们对孩子的了解就会越少。
12:26
The more time we spend with people that
we're predicted and programmed to like,
we're predicted and programmed to like,
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花费在预测我们会喜欢，
或计划喜欢的人的时间越长，
或计划喜欢的人的时间越长，
12:31
the less we can connect with people
who are different from ourselves.
who are different from ourselves.
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我们就越不会和与自己不同的人联系。
12:35
And the less compassion we need,
the less compassion we have.
the less compassion we have.
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我们需要的同情越少，
我们的同情心就会越少。
我们的同情心就会越少。
12:41
What all of these
technologies attempt to do
technologies attempt to do
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所有这些科技都在试图
12:45
is to force-fit a standardized model
of a predictable reality
of a predictable reality
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用可预测现实的标准化模型
12:52
onto a world that is
infinitely surprising.
infinitely surprising.
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去强制适应一个给你无限惊喜的世界。
12:56
What gets left out?
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我们遗漏了什么？
12:58
Anything that can't be measured --
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我们遗漏了所有无法衡量的东西 ——
13:02
which is just about
everything that counts.
everything that counts.
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几乎都是非常重要的东西。
（掌声）
13:05
(Applause)
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13:14
Our growing dependence on technology
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我们对科技的日益依赖
使我们面临自身技能变差的风险，
13:18
risks us becoming less skilled,
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13:22
more vulnerable
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使我们
更容易受到深层和日益复杂
13:24
to the deep and growing complexity
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的现实世界的影响。
13:27
of the real world.
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13:29
Now, as I was thinking about
the extremes of stress and turbulence
the extremes of stress and turbulence
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当我想到我们必须面对
13:35
that we know we will have to confront,
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的极端压力和动荡时，
13:39
I went and I talked to
a number of chief executives
a number of chief executives
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我曾找过一些首席执行官谈话，
13:42
whose own businesses had gone
through existential crises,
through existential crises,
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他们自己的企业都经历过生存危机，
13:46
when they teetered
on the brink of collapse.
on the brink of collapse.
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那时他们曾濒临崩溃的边缘。
13:50
These were frank,
gut-wrenching conversations.
gut-wrenching conversations.
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这些是坦诚而痛苦的对话，
13:56
Many men wept just remembering.
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很多男子汉回顾往事
都不禁潸然泪下。
都不禁潸然泪下。
14:00
So I asked them:
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我问他们：
14:02
"What kept you going through this?"
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“是什么让你克服了危机？”
14:05
And they all had exactly the same answer.
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他们都有完全相同的答案。
14:08
"It wasn't data or technology," they said.
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“不是数据或科技，”他们说。
14:11
"It was my friends and my colleagues
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“而是我的朋友和同事们
支持着我继续前进。”
14:15
who kept me going."
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14:17
One added, "It was pretty much
the opposite of the gig economy."
the opposite of the gig economy."
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其中一位补充说：
“这与临时工性质完全相反。”
“这与临时工性质完全相反。”
14:24
But then I went and I talked to a group
of young, rising executives,
of young, rising executives,
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后来我又去和一群年轻新晋高管交谈，
我问他们：
14:27
and I asked them,
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“工作中有谁是你朋友吗？”
14:29
"Who are your friends at work?"
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他们看起来很困惑 ，
14:31
And they just looked blank.
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14:33
"There's no time."
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“没时间交朋友。”
“他们太忙了。”
14:35
"They're too busy."
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“交朋友效率低下。”
14:37
"It's not efficient."
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14:39
Who, I wondered, is going to give them
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我想知道的是，
当暴风雨来临时，谁去赋予他们
14:43
imagination and stamina and bravery
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想象力、毅力和勇气呢？
14:48
when the storms come?
255
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14:51
Anyone who tries to tell you
that they know the future
that they know the future
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任何试图告诉你他们知道未来的人，
他们只是试图拥有未来，
14:55
is just trying to own it,
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14:57
a spurious kind of manifest destiny.
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这是一种虚假的天定命运。
15:01
The harder, deeper truth is
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更难、更深刻的事实是，
15:05
that the future is uncharted,
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未来是未知的，
在它来临前，根本无法知晓。
15:07
that we can't map it till we get there.
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15:10
But that's OK,
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但那没关系，
15:12
because we have so much imagination --
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因为我们有很多想象力——
如果我们肯去想象的话。
15:15
if we use it.
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15:17
We have deep talents
of inventiveness and exploration --
of inventiveness and exploration --
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我们有创造和探索的深厚才能——
如果我们肯应用这些才能的话。
15:22
if we apply them.
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我们足够勇敢去发明
以前从未见过的东西，
以前从未见过的东西，
15:24
We are brave enough to invent things
we've never seen before.
we've never seen before.
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15:31
Lose those skills,
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同样，要是失去这些技能，
15:33
and we are adrift.
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我们只能随波逐流。
15:36
But hone and develop them,
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但是，磨练和发展这些技能，
15:40
we can make any future we choose.
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我们就可以创造出
我们选择的任何未来。
我们选择的任何未来。
15:44
Thank you.
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谢谢！
15:45
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Margaret Heffernan - Management thinkerThe former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray.
Why you should listen
How do organizations think? In her book Willful Blindness, Margaret Heffernan examines why businesses and the people who run them often ignore the obvious -- with consequences as dire as the global financial crisis and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
Heffernan began her career in television production, building a track record at the BBC before going on to run the film and television producer trade association IPPA. In the US, Heffernan became a serial entrepreneur and CEO in the wild early days of web business. She now blogs for the Huffington Post and BNET.com. Her latest book, Beyond Measure, a TED Books original, explores the small steps companies can make that lead to big changes in their culture.
Margaret Heffernan | Speaker | TED.com