ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Charles Robertson - Emerging-markets economist
In "The Fastest Billion," Charles Robertson re-examines the narrative of economic growth in African nations.

Why you should listen

Checking one's assumptions about "Africa" has become a trope -- but it's still important to do, and still surprising. In The Fastest Billion, economist Charles Robertson and his co-authors suggest that behind the stereotyped narrative are some jawdropping indicators of extreme economic and social growth. He and colleagues make the case that Africa is moving away -- quickly -- from the "bottom billion" and  "will be the fastest continent to reach the fourth economic age ... of high-income, low-corruption and generally democratic norms." Rich in resources, and powered by young people who are holding leaders to account in new ways, Africa’s economies are now returning some of the highest growth rates on Earth. How will this trend play out?
 
Robertson, a leading emerging markets specialist, is the global chief economist and head of the macro-strategy unit at Renaissance Capital, where he covers the global economic themes having the greatest impact on emerging markets.

More profile about the speaker
Charles Robertson | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2013

Charles Robertson: Africa's next boom

查爾斯·羅伯森: 非洲下個階段的繁榮

Filmed:
1,294,049 views

過去十年,非洲大陸穩定成長。但是經濟學家查爾斯·羅伯森(Charles Robertson )有個大膽的論點:非洲將快速繁榮。他談到幾個指標:從提升教育程度到擴增的全球投資(且投資者不限於中國),並據此預測,十億人口的非洲將急速成長,而且比你想的還要快。
- Emerging-markets economist
In "The Fastest Billion," Charles Robertson re-examines the narrative of economic growth in African nations. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Africa非洲 is booming繁榮.
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非洲正欣欣向榮
00:14
Per capita人頭 incomes收入 since以來 the year 2000
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人均所得自2000年以來
00:16
have doubled翻倍,
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已倍增
00:18
and this boom繁榮 is impacting影響 on everyone大家.
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這樣的繁榮影響所有人民
00:21
Life expectancy期待 has increased增加 by one year
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過去十年以來,平均壽命
00:24
every一切 three years年份 for the last decade.
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每三年增加一歲
00:27
That means手段 if an African非洲人 child兒童 is born天生 today今天,
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就是說今天誕生的非洲嬰兒
00:30
rather than three days ago,
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比三天前出生的
00:32
they will get an extra額外 day of life
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會多增加一天
00:34
at the end結束 of their lifespan壽命.
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的壽命預期
00:36
It's that quick.
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變化就是那麼快
00:38
And HIVHIV infection感染 rates利率 are down 27 percent百分:
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愛滋病毒的感染率下降了27%
00:42
600,000 less people a year are getting得到 HIVHIV
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每年感染的人數減少60萬
00:46
in sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲.
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這是漠南非洲的數據
00:49
The battle戰鬥 against反對 malaria瘧疾 is being存在 won韓元,
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對抗瘧疾也漸入佳境
00:52
with deaths死亡 from malaria瘧疾 down 27 percent百分,
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死亡率降低27%
00:55
according根據 to the latest最新 World世界 Bank銀行 data數據.
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這是世界銀行的數據
00:56
And malaria瘧疾 nets actually其實 are playing播放 a role角色 in that.
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抗瘧疾蚊帳其實是功臣之一
00:59
This shouldn't不能 surprise us,
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非洲的進步不足為奇
01:02
because actually其實, everybody每個人 grows成長.
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因為事實上成長屢見不鮮
01:04
If you go back to Imperial帝國 Rome羅馬
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回顧羅馬帝國時期
01:06
in the Year 1 A.D.,
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從西元一年開始
01:09
there was admittedly固然 about 1,800 years年份
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一般公認大約有一千八百年
01:11
where there wasn't an awful可怕 lot of growth發展.
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不見巨幅的成長
01:13
But then the people that the Romans羅馬書
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然後我的祖先蘇格蘭人
01:15
would have called Scottish蘇格蘭的 barbarians野蠻人, my ancestors祖先,
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那個會被羅馬人視為野蠻的族群
01:19
were actually其實 part部分 of the Industrial產業 Revolution革命,
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事實上卻參與了工業革命
01:21
and in the 19th century世紀, growth發展 began開始 to accelerate加速,
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19世紀,成長開始加速
01:24
and you saw that get quicker更快 and quicker更快,
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速度節節上升
01:27
and it's been impacting影響 everyone大家.
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並且影響無遠弗屆
01:30
It doesn't matter if this is the jungles叢林 of Singapore新加坡
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不論是雨林區的新加坡
01:32
or the tundra苔原 of northern北方 Finland芬蘭.
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還是凍原區的北國芬蘭
01:34
Everybody每個人 gets得到 involved參與. It's just a matter of when
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都參與其中,這只是遲早的問題
01:37
the inevitable必然 happens發生.
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是必然的結果
01:40
Among其中 the reasons原因 I think it's happening事件 right now
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非洲現在成功的原因之一
01:42
is the quality質量 of the leadership領導 across橫過 Africa非洲.
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我認為是非洲領袖的才能
01:46
I think most of us would agree同意 that in the 1990s,
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我相信多數人會同意,1990年代
01:49
the greatest最大 politician政治家 in the world世界 was African非洲人,
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全球最棒的政治家在非洲
01:53
but I'm meeting會議 brilliant輝煌 people
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但是我遇到的俊彥
01:55
across橫過 the continent大陸 the entire整個 time,
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非洲一直都不缺
01:57
and they're doing the reforms改革
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他們進行改革
01:59
which哪一個 have transformed改造 the economic經濟 situation情況
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扭轉了經濟情勢
02:01
for their countries國家.
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改變了自己的國家
02:03
And the West西 is engaging with that.
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西方國家也有參與
02:05
The West西 has given特定 debt債務 forgiveness饒恕 programs程式
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提出債務減免計畫
02:07
which哪一個 have halved減半 sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 debt債務
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漠南非洲的負債因而減半
02:10
from about 70 percent百分 of GDPGDP down to about 40.
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從GDP的七成降至大約四成
02:14
At the same相同 time, our debt債務 level's水平的 gone走了 up to 120
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同時西方的負債升至GDP的120%
02:16
and we're all feeling感覺 slightly miserable
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我們的心情
02:18
as a result結果.
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都因此略為低落
02:20
Politics政治 gets得到 weaker較弱 when debt債務 is high.
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負債高,會削弱政治的力道
02:23
When public上市 sector扇形 debt債務 is low,
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當公債的負擔低
02:25
governments政府 don't have to choose選擇
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政府就毋須選擇
02:26
between之間 investing投資 in education教育 and health健康
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投資於教育和健康
02:29
and paying付款 interest利益 on that debt債務 you owe.
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還是繳付欠款的利息
02:31
And it's not just the public上市 sector扇形 which哪一個 is looking so good.
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不只是公共部門看好
02:34
The private私人的 sector扇形 as well.
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私營企業也不遜色
02:36
Again, in the West西, we have private私人的 sector扇形 debt債務
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西方的私營企業負債
02:39
of 200 percent百分 of GDPGDP in Spain西班牙,
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是GDP的兩倍,這是西班牙
02:42
the U.K., and the U.S.
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英國、美國的數字
02:44
That's an awful可怕 lot of debt債務.
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負債相當高
02:46
Africa非洲, many許多 African非洲人 countries國家,
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許多非洲國家的負債
02:49
are sitting坐在 at 10 to 30 percent百分 of GDPGDP.
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則是GDP的一成至三成
02:52
If there's any continent大陸 that can do what China中國 has doneDONE --
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如果有個洲能做到中國已做到的——
02:56
China's中國的 at about 130 percent百分 of GDPGDP on that chart圖表 --
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中國的負債是GDP的130%——
02:59
if anyone任何人 can do what China中國 has doneDONE
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如果有區域能達到中國
03:01
in the last 30 years年份,
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過去30年來的成績
03:03
it'll它會 be Africa非洲 in the next下一個 30.
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應該是非洲未來的30年
03:06
So they've他們已經 got great government政府 finances財政, great private私人的 sector扇形 debt債務.
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既然財政、企業負債狀況都極佳
03:09
Does anyone任何人 recognize認識 this? In fact事實, they do.
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有人慧眼識英雄嗎?確實有
03:11
Foreign國外 direct直接 investment投資
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外商直接投資
03:13
has poured into Africa非洲 in the last 15 years年份.
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過去15年來已大量湧入
03:17
Back in the '70s,
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回顧1970年代
03:19
no one touched感動 the continent大陸 with a barge駁船 pole.
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人人避非洲唯恐不及
03:22
And this investment投資 is actually其實 Western-led西方國家主導.
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現在的投資其實是西方主導
03:24
We hear a lot about China中國,
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中國時常上新聞
03:26
and they do lend a lot of money,
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也確實提供非洲大量的貸款
03:28
but 60 percent百分 of the FDI外國直接投資 in the last couple一對 of years年份
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但是過去幾年,外商直接投資有六成
03:31
has come from Europe歐洲, America美國, Australia澳大利亞, Canada加拿大.
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來自歐洲、美國、澳洲、加拿大
03:34
Ten percent's百分比的 come from India印度.
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還有一成來自印度
03:36
And they're investing投資 in energy能源.
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他們正在投資能源
03:39
Africa非洲 produces產生 10 million百萬 barrels a day of oil now.
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非洲現在日產一千萬桶石油
03:42
It's the same相同 as Saudi沙特 Arabia阿拉伯 or Russia俄國.
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不下於沙烏地阿拉伯或俄羅斯
03:45
And they're investing投資 in telecoms電信,
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他們也在投資電信業
03:47
shopping購物 malls商場.
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大型購物中心
03:49
And this very encouraging鼓舞人心的 story故事, I think,
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我認為這個振奮人心的故事
03:53
is partly部分地 demographic-led人口主導.
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部分是由於人口因素
03:54
And it's not just about African非洲人 demographics人口統計學.
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而且不僅僅是非洲的人口
03:58
I'm showing展示 you the number of 15- to 24-year-olds- 年的孩子
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圖上顯示的是15至24歲人口
04:01
in various各個 parts部分 of the world世界,
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在世界各區域的分佈統計
04:03
and the blue藍色 line is the one I want you to focus焦點 on for a second第二.
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請注意藍色的線
04:06
Ten years年份 ago, say you're Foxconn富士康
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十年前,如果你是富士康
04:09
setting設置 up an iPhone蘋果手機 factory, by chance機會.
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假定要設立iPhone工廠
04:12
You might威力 choose選擇 China中國,
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中國可能會入選
04:13
which哪一個 is the bulk of that East Asian亞洲 blue藍色 line,
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中國佔東亞藍線人口的大宗
04:15
where there's 200 million百萬 young年輕 people,
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有兩億的年輕人
04:17
and every一切 year until直到 2010 that's getting得到 bigger.
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而且在2010年以前,人口年年上升
04:22
Which哪一個 means手段 you're going to have new guys
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意味著新的年輕人
04:24
knocking敲門 on the door saying, "Give us a job工作,"
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會找上門來乞求工作
04:27
and, "I don't need a big pay工資 rise上升, just please give me a job工作."
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會說「加薪不重要,給我工作就好」
04:30
Now, that's completely全然 changed now.
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現在情況則完全不同
04:33
This decade, we're going to see a 20- to 30-percent-百分
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2010年以後的十年
04:36
fall秋季 in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds- 年的孩子 in China中國.
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中國15至24歲人口將減少兩到三成
04:40
So where do you set up your new factory?
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所以你該在哪裡設新工廠?
04:43
You look at South Asia亞洲, and people are.
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大家開始注視南亞
04:45
They're looking at Pakistan巴基斯坦 and Bangladesh孟加拉國,
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轉向巴基斯坦和孟加拉
04:47
and they're also looking at Africa非洲.
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也在轉向非洲
04:49
And they're looking at Africa非洲
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他們注視非洲
04:51
because that yellow黃色 line is showing展示 you
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因為圖上的黃線顯示
04:54
that the number of young年輕 Africans非洲人
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非洲的青年人口
04:55
is going to continue繼續 to get bigger
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將持續增長
04:57
decade after decade after decade out to 2050.
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年復一年直到2050年
05:02
Now, there's a problem問題 with lots of young年輕 people
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不過大量年輕人進入任何市場
05:05
coming未來 into any market市場,
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都會產生問題
05:07
particularly尤其 when they're young年輕 men男人.
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尤其是年輕男性
05:09
A bit dangerous危險, sometimes有時.
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有時候會有點危險
05:11
I think one of the crucial關鍵 factors因素
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我認為要素之一
05:13
is how educated博學 is that demographic人口?
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是年輕人的教育程度
05:16
If you look at the red line here,
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請觀察紅線
05:18
what you're going to see is that in 1975,
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可以看到1975年
05:20
just nine percent百分 of kids孩子
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青少年只有9%
05:22
were in secondary次要 school學校 education教育
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接受中學教育
05:24
in sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲.
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這是漠南非洲的數據
05:27
Would you set up a factory
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如果想設立工廠
05:29
in sub-Sahara撒哈拉以南 in the mid-中-1970s?
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1970年代中期,會選漠南吗?
05:31
Nobody沒有人 else其他 did.
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沒有人這麼做
05:32
They chose選擇 instead代替 Turkey火雞 and Mexico墨西哥
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他們選的是土耳其和墨西哥
05:35
to set up the textiles紡織品 factories工廠,
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在那裡設立紡織廠
05:37
because their education教育 levels水平
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因為中等學歷的青年
05:39
were 25 to 30 percent百分.
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佔人口的25%到30%
05:42
Today今天, sub-Sahara撒哈拉以南 is at the levels水平
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如今漠南人口的教育程度
05:45
that Turkey火雞 and Mexico墨西哥 were at in 1975.
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已達土耳其和墨西哥1975年的水準
05:49
They will get the textiles紡織品 jobs工作
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漠南非洲會迎來紡織工作
05:52
that will take people out of rural鄉村 poverty貧窮
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鄉下人會因而脫貧
05:55
and put them on the road to industrialization工業化 and wealth財富.
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並且邁向工業化和富裕之路
05:59
So what's Africa非洲 looking like today今天?
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所以非洲現況如何?
06:02
This is how I look at Africa非洲.
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這是我的觀點
06:04
It's a bit odd, because I'm an economist經濟學家.
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看起來有點怪,因為我是經濟學家
06:06
Each little box is about a billion十億 dollars美元,
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每個小方格代表大約十億美元
06:08
and you see that I pay工資 an awful可怕 lot of attention注意
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可以看得出來,我極為看重
06:10
to Nigeria尼日利亞 sitting坐在 there in the middle中間.
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居中的奈及利亞
06:12
South Africa非洲 is playing播放 a role角色.
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南非現在有一定分量
06:14
But when I'm thinking思維 about the future未來,
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但是放眼未來
06:16
I'm actually其實 most interested有興趣
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其實我最感興趣的是
06:19
in Central中央, Western西 and Southern南部的 Africa非洲.
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非洲中部、西部、和南部
06:21
If I look at Africa非洲 by population人口,
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如果從人口的角度
06:24
East Africa非洲 stands站立 out
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東非鶴立雞群
06:25
as so much potential潛在.
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非常有潛力
06:27
And I'm showing展示 you something else其他 with these maps地圖.
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這張圖還顯示了其他資訊
06:30
I'm showing展示 you democracy民主 versus autocracy專制.
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顯示出民主和專制
06:33
Fragile脆弱 democracies民主 is the beige米色 color顏色.
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米黃色代表脆弱的民主
06:36
Strong強大 democracies民主 are the orange橙子 color顏色.
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橘色代表穩定的民主
06:39
And what you'll你會 see here is that most Africans非洲人
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看得出來,大多數非洲人
06:42
are now living活的 in democracies民主.
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生活在民主社會
06:46
Why does that matter?
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這有什麼重要?
06:48
Because what people want
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因為民之所欲
06:50
is what politicians政治家 try,
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政客必從之
06:52
they don't always succeed成功, but they try and deliver交付.
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他們未必成功,但是會嘗試、會履行
06:55
And what you've got is a reinforcing加強 positive circle going on.
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結果會形成良性循環
06:58
In Ghana加納 in the elections選舉, in December十二月 2012,
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2012年12月在迦納的選舉
07:01
the battle戰鬥 between之間 the two candidates候選人
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兩位候選人對決
07:03
was over education教育.
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議題是教育
07:06
One guy offered提供 free自由 secondary次要 school學校 education教育
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一位候選人承諾中學免費
07:08
to all, not just 30 percent百分.
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全民免費,不只是適齡人口的三成
07:11
The other guy had to say,
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對手只得表示
07:12
I'm going to build建立 50 new schools學校.
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將會興建50所新學校
07:14
He won韓元 by a margin餘量.
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他後來險勝
07:17
So democracy民主 is encouraging鼓舞人心的 governments政府
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所以民主制度鼓勵政府
07:20
to invest投資 in education教育.
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投資於教育
07:22
Education教育 is helping幫助 growth發展 and investment投資,
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教育有助於成長和投資
07:24
and that's giving budget預算 revenues收入,
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從而提高稅收
07:25
which哪一個 is giving governments政府 more money,
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政府因此有更多經費
07:27
which哪一個 is helping幫助 growth發展 through通過 education教育.
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這就是借助教育促進成長
07:30
It's a positive, virtuous circle.
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這就是良性循環
07:33
But I get asked this question,
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但是有人會問一個問題
07:35
and this particular特定 question makes品牌 me quite相當 sad傷心:
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這個問題讓我非常難過
07:38
It's, "But what about corruption腐敗?
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他們問「腐敗怎麼辦?
07:41
How can you invest投資 in Africa非洲 when there's corruption腐敗?"
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非洲腐敗,我們怎麼投資?」
07:45
And what makes品牌 me sad傷心 about it
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讓我難過的
07:47
is that this graph圖形 here is showing展示 you
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是這個圖所顯示的
07:49
that the biggest最大 correlation相關 with corruption腐敗 is wealth財富.
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腐敗最大的相關因素是富裕
07:53
When you're poor較差的, corruption腐敗 is not your biggest最大 priority優先.
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貧窮的地方,不會急於解決腐敗
07:57
And the countries國家 on the right hand side,
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右邊的國家
07:59
you'll你會 see the per capita人頭 GDPGDP,
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請注意其人均GDP
08:01
basically基本上 every一切 country國家
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幾乎每個國家
08:03
with a per capita人頭 GDPGDP of, say, less than 5,000 dollars美元,
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如果人均GDP低於五千美元
08:06
has got a corruption腐敗 score得分了
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其腐敗分數
08:09
of roughly大致, what's that, about three?
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大概是,是三吧?
08:12
Three out of 10. That's not good.
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十分只得三分。成績不佳
08:14
Every一切 poor較差的 country國家 is corrupt腐敗.
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貧窮國家都是腐敗的
08:16
Every一切 rich豐富 country國家 is relatively相對 uncorrupt廉潔.
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富裕國家相對比較不腐敗
08:20
How do you get from poverty貧窮 and corruption腐敗
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怎樣才能從貧窮和腐敗
08:24
to wealth財富 and less corruption腐敗?
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變成富裕和較不腐敗?
08:27
You see the middle中間 class grow增長.
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擴大中產階級是答案
08:29
And the way to do that is to invest投資,
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擴大之道則是投資
08:32
not to say I'm not investing投資 in that continent大陸
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不要拒絕投資非洲
08:36
because there's too much corruption腐敗.
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只是因為腐敗猖獗
08:38
Now, I don't want to be an apologist辯護士 for corruption腐敗.
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我倒不是要替腐敗辯護
08:41
I've been arrested被捕 because I refused拒絕 to pay工資 a bribe賄賂 --
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我曾因為拒絕行賄而被捕
08:44
not in Africa非洲, actually其實.
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那次其實不是在非洲
08:46
But what I'm saying here is that
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但是我要講的是
08:47
we can make a difference區別
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我們可以發揮影響力
08:49
and we can do that by investing投資.
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可以用投資達到目的
08:52
Now I'm going to let you in on a little not-so-secret不那麼秘密.
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我要透露一個不算秘密的小秘密
08:56
Economists經濟學家 aren't great at forecasting預測.
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經濟學家的預測不是很準
08:58
Because the question really is, what happens發生 next下一個?
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因為牽涉到預知未來
09:01
And if you go back to the year 2000,
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2524
如果回顧2000年
09:03
what you'll你會 find is The Economist經濟學家
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當年的《經濟學人》雜誌
09:05
had a very famous著名 cover, "The Hopeless絕望 Continent大陸,"
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有個著名的封面「無望之洲」
09:08
and what they'd他們會 doneDONE is they'd他們會 looked看著 at growth發展
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他們檢視了
09:10
in Africa非洲 over the previous以前 10 years年份 -- two percent百分 --
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非洲前十年的成長紀錄:2%
09:14
and they said,
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他們自問
09:16
what's going to happen發生 in the next下一個 10 years年份?
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非洲下個十年的展望如何?
09:19
They assumed假定 two percent百分,
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他們假設還是2%
09:21
and that made製作 it a pretty漂亮 hopeless絕望 story故事,
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前途因此看來無望
09:23
because population人口 growth發展 was two and a half.
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因為人口的增長是2.5%
09:26
People got poorer in Africa非洲 in the 1990s.
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1990年代非洲人變得更窮
09:29
Now 2012, The Economist經濟學家 has a new cover,
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到了2012年,《經濟學人》有了新封面
09:33
and what does that new cover show顯示?
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什麼樣的新封面?
09:34
That new cover shows節目, well, Africa非洲 rising升起,
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新封面顯示了非洲興起
09:37
because the growth發展 over the last 10 years年份
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因為過去十年的成長率
09:39
has been about five and a half percent百分.
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大約是5.5%
09:42
I would like to see if you can all now become成為 economists經濟學家,
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看看你們現在能否變成經濟學家
09:45
because if growth發展 for the last 10 years年份
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如果過去十年的成長率
09:48
has been five and a half percent百分,
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是5.5%
09:50
what do you think the IMF國際貨幣基金組織 is forecasting預測
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你們猜國際貨幣基金組織預測
09:52
for the next下一個 five years年份 of growth發展 in Africa非洲?
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非洲下個五年的成長率為何?
09:55
Very good. I think you're secretly偷偷 saying
227
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很好。我想你們在默想
09:57
to your head, probably大概 five and a half percent百分.
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大概也是5.5%
10:00
You're all economists經濟學家, and I think,
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你們都成了經濟學家,而我認為
10:02
like most economists經濟學家, wrong錯誤.
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像多數經濟學家一樣,你們錯了
10:04
No offense罪行.
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請別介意
10:06
What I like to do is try and find the countries國家
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我的目的是要找出一些國家
10:09
that are doing exactly究竟 what Africa非洲 has already已經 doneDONE,
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他們也走過非洲走過的路
10:13
and it means手段 that jump from 1,800 years年份 of nothing
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就是歷經了1800年的沉寂
10:17
to whoof, suddenly突然 shooting射擊 through通過 the roof屋頂.
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突然一飛沖天
10:20
India印度 is one of those examples例子.
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印度就是這種國家
10:22
This is Indian印度人 growth發展 from 1960 to 2010.
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這是印度1960年到2010年的成長圖
10:26
Ignore忽視 the scale規模 on the bottom底部 for a second第二.
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2914
請暫時忽略下方的標示
10:29
Actually其實, for the first 20 years年份,
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其實開始的20年
10:32
the '60s and '70s, India印度 didn't really grow增長.
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1960-70年代,印度成長平平
10:35
It grew成長 at two percent百分
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2061
只成長了2%
10:37
when population人口 growth發展 was about two and a half.
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3080
其人口增長率則是2.5%
10:40
If that's familiar, that's exactly究竟 what happened發生
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2180
如果似曾相識,因為這完全像
10:42
in sub-Sahara撒哈拉以南 in the '80s and the '90s.
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非洲漠南1980-90年代
10:44
And then something happened發生 in 1980.
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1774
然後1980年出現變化
10:46
Boom繁榮! India印度 began開始 to explode爆炸.
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2223
轟隆一聲,印度爆發了
10:48
It wasn't a "Hindu印度教 rate of growth發展,"
247
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這不是所謂的「印度式成長」
10:51
"democracies民主 can't grow增長." Actually其實 India印度 could.
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「民主國家無法成長」。印度真的成長了
10:54
And if I lay鋪設 sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 growth發展
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如果我把漠南的成長圖
10:57
on top最佳 of the Indian印度人 growth發展 story故事,
250
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重疊在印度的成長圖上面
10:59
it's remarkably異常 similar類似.
251
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二者非常相似
11:01
Twenty二十 years年份 of not much growth發展
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都有二十年的滯怠期
11:04
and a trend趨勢 line which哪一個 is actually其實 telling告訴 you
253
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其實趨勢線顯示
11:05
that sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 African非洲人 growth發展 is
254
653759
1990
漠南非洲的成長率
11:07
slightly better than India印度.
255
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會略優於印度
11:10
And if I then lay鋪設 developing發展 Asia亞洲 on top最佳 of this,
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如果再加上亞洲發展中國家
11:13
I'm saying India印度 is 20 years年份 ahead of Africa非洲,
257
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看得出來印度比非洲早發展20年
11:16
I'm saying developing發展 Asia亞洲 is 10 years年份 ahead of India印度,
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亞洲發展中國家又比印度早十年
11:20
I can draw out some forecasts預測
259
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我能以此做出預測
11:22
for the next下一個 30 to 40 years年份
260
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2320
未來30到40年的預測
11:25
which哪一個 I think are better
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我認為準確度會超過
11:27
than the ones那些 where you're looking backwards向後.
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只根據非洲過去紀錄的預測
11:30
And that tells告訴 me this:
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我的預測顯示
11:32
that Africa非洲 is going to go
264
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1782
非洲將從
11:34
from a $2 trillion economy經濟 today今天
265
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現在兩兆美元的經濟體
11:37
to a $29 trillion economy經濟 by 2050.
266
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躍升為2050年29兆美元的經濟體
11:41
Now that's bigger than Europe歐洲 and America美國
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2008
這個數字大於歐洲和美國
11:43
put together一起 in today's今天的 money.
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3458
現值的總和
11:46
Life expectancy期待 is going to go up by 13 years年份.
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3920
平均壽命將增加13歲
11:50
The population's人口的 going to double
270
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人口將倍增
11:52
from one billion十億 to two billion十億,
271
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1453
從十億變成20億
11:54
so household家庭 incomes收入 are going to go up sevenfold七倍
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3350
家戶所得將成長七倍
11:57
in the next下一個 35 years年份.
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再過35年這些均可實現
12:00
And when I present當下 this in Africa非洲 --
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我在非洲提出這些數據時
12:03
Nairobi內羅畢, Lagos拉各斯, Accra阿克拉 -- I get one question.
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在奈洛比、拉哥斯、阿克拉,我聽到一種質疑
12:07
"Charlie查理, why are you so pessimistic悲觀?"
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4868
「查理,你的預測為什麼那麼悲觀?」
12:12
And you know what?
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1843
老實說
12:13
Actually其實, I think they've他們已經 got a point.
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我還真覺得他們有點道理
12:16
Am I really saying that there can be nothing learned學到了,
279
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我難道真的認定非洲
12:18
yes from the positives陽性 in Asia亞洲 and India印度,
280
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3284
不能汲取亞洲和印度的優點
12:22
but also the negatives底片?
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以及失敗的經驗?
12:23
Perhaps也許 Africa非洲 can avoid避免 some of the mistakes錯誤 that have been made製作.
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2562
或許非洲能避免重蹈一些覆轍
12:26
Surely一定, the technologies技術 that we're talking about here
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3395
當然,在這裡討論過的科技
12:29
this last week,
284
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上周討論過的科技
12:31
surely一定 some of these can perhaps也許
285
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1944
其中總有一些
12:32
help Africa非洲 grow增長 even faster更快?
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2728
或許能幫助非洲成長更快?
12:35
And I think here we can play a role角色.
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2435
我相信在場的都可以參與
12:38
Because technology技術 does let you help.
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因為可以藉由科技幫上忙
12:40
You can go and download下載
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你現在就可以下載
12:43
some of the great African非洲人 literature文學
290
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2035
一些非洲文學巨著
12:45
from the Internet互聯網 now.
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這些都在網上
12:46
No, not right now, just 30 seconds.
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別現在下載,我再30秒就會講完
12:49
You can go and buy購買 some of the great tunes曲調.
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你可以買些很棒的非洲音樂
12:51
My iPod'siPod的 full充分 of them.
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我的iPod裡面有很多
12:53
Buy購買 African非洲人 products製品.
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購買非洲產品
12:55
Go on holiday假日 and see for yourself你自己
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1965
去非洲度假,親眼觀察
12:57
the change更改 that's happening事件.
297
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1549
日新月異的非洲
12:58
Invest投資.
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1405
投資
12:59
Perhaps也許 hire聘請 people, give them the skills技能
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2126
或許聘用非洲人,傳授技能
13:02
that they can take back to Africa非洲,
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他們學成後返回非洲
13:04
and their companies公司 will grow增長 an awful可怕 lot faster更快
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2265
其公司的成長速度會遠高於
13:06
than most of ours我們的 here in the West西.
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2650
大多數西方公司
13:09
And then you and I can help make sure
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4301
然後你我可以幫忙成全一件事:
13:13
that for Africa非洲, the 21stST century世紀 is their century世紀.
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讓21世紀成為非洲的世紀
13:17
Thank you very much.
305
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非常感謝
13:19
(Applause掌聲)
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4000
(掌聲)
Translated by Ron Chao
Reviewed by Iris Chung

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Charles Robertson - Emerging-markets economist
In "The Fastest Billion," Charles Robertson re-examines the narrative of economic growth in African nations.

Why you should listen

Checking one's assumptions about "Africa" has become a trope -- but it's still important to do, and still surprising. In The Fastest Billion, economist Charles Robertson and his co-authors suggest that behind the stereotyped narrative are some jawdropping indicators of extreme economic and social growth. He and colleagues make the case that Africa is moving away -- quickly -- from the "bottom billion" and  "will be the fastest continent to reach the fourth economic age ... of high-income, low-corruption and generally democratic norms." Rich in resources, and powered by young people who are holding leaders to account in new ways, Africa’s economies are now returning some of the highest growth rates on Earth. How will this trend play out?
 
Robertson, a leading emerging markets specialist, is the global chief economist and head of the macro-strategy unit at Renaissance Capital, where he covers the global economic themes having the greatest impact on emerging markets.

More profile about the speaker
Charles Robertson | Speaker | TED.com