TED@Unilever
Lord Nicholas Stern: The state of the climate — and what we might do about it
尼古拉斯·斯特恩爵士: 氣候形勢—我們能為之做什麼？
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要如何著手進行隱藏在全球氣候變遷下的問題，一個大到世界上每個國家都要去解決的問題？經濟學家尼古拉斯·斯特恩在 2014 年勾勒出一個計劃，並向聯合國氣候高峰會提出，說明世界上每個國家，要如何一起努力、互相合作來解決氣候問題，以倖免於難，可以看出這是一個大願景。尼古拉斯·斯特恩問道：我們如何化危機為轉機，讓每個人都有更美好的生活環境？
Nicholas Stern - Climate economist
Lord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy." Full bio
Lord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We are at a remarkable moment in time.
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我們現在正處於一個不凡的時代。
00:16
We face over the next two decades
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在未來的 20 年
00:19
two fundamental transformations
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將面對二個重大的轉變
00:21
that will determine whether the next 100 years
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這二個轉變，
將決定未來的 100 年，
將決定未來的 100 年，
00:24
is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.
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是最好的世紀，還是最壞的世紀。
00:28
Let me illustrate with an example.
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我來舉個例子讓你了解，
00:31
I first visited Beijing 25 years ago
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我在 25 年前第一次造訪北京
00:34
to teach at the People's University of China.
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在中國人民大學教書。
00:37
China was getting serious about market economics
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在大學教育學程裡，
00:40
and about university education,
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中國漸漸重視市場經濟狀況，
00:42
so they decided to call in the foreign experts.
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所以他們決定尋求國外專家。
00:47
Like most other people,
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像其他大多數人一樣，
00:48
I moved around Beijing by bicycle.
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我騎著腳踏車逛北京市區。
00:51
Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle,
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除了閃躲少數的車輛外，
00:53
it was a safe and easy way to get around.
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在這裡閒逛既安全又簡單。
00:57
Cycling in Beijing now
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現在在北京騎腳踏車
00:58
is a completely different prospect.
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已經不再有相同的光景。
01:01
The roads are jammed by cars and trucks.
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馬路擠滿汽車、卡車。
01:04
The air is dangerously polluted
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燃燒煤炭和柴油
01:06
from the burning of coal and diesel.
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空氣受到嚴重污染。
01:09
When I was there last in the spring,
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去年春天我住在北京時，
01:12
there was an advisory for people of my age —
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有一則建議是：像我這個年紀的人，
01:14
over 65 —
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年紀超過 65 歲的人，
01:17
to stay indoors and not move much.
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最好待在室內，不要到處走。
01:20
How did this come about?
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怎麼會變成這樣？
01:22
It came from the way in which
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這是因為
01:24
Beijing has grown as a city.
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北京已經發展成為一個大城市。
01:26
It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled,
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這 25 年來，
人口數超過雙倍的成長，
人口數超過雙倍的成長，
01:29
from 10 million to 20 million.
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從 1,000 萬人，
成長為 2,000 萬人。
成長為 2,000 萬人。
01:31
It's become a sprawling urban area
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北京成為一個無擴展計劃的都會區，
01:33
dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy,
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仰賴造成污染的燃料、能源，
01:37
particularly coal.
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尤其是煤炭。
01:39
China burns half the world's coal each year,
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每年，中國消耗
世界用量一半的煤炭，
世界用量一半的煤炭，
01:43
and that's why, it is a key reason why,
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這就是造成污染的主要原因了，
01:47
it is the world's largest emitter
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這裡是世界上最大的
01:49
of greenhouse gases.
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溫室氣體排放區。
01:52
At the same time, we have to recognize
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同時，我們也知道
01:54
that in that period China has grown remarkably.
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中國在這段時間有驚人的成長，
01:57
It has become the world's second largest economy.
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成為世界第二大經濟體，
02:00
Hundreds of millions of people
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數以億計的人
02:01
have been lifted out of poverty.
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已脫離貧困。
02:03
That's really important.
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這是相當重要的因素，
02:05
But at the same time, the people of China
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同時，
02:08
are asking the question:
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中國人民問了一個問題：
02:09
What's the value of this growth
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如果我們的環境不適合人們居住，
02:11
if our cities are unlivable?
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那麼，經濟成長
又帶給我們什麼好處？
又帶給我們什麼好處？
02:13
They've analyzed, diagnosed
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透過種種的分析與診斷，
02:15
that this is an unsustainable path of growth
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這種經濟快速成長的腳步
02:19
and development.
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無法長久持續下去。
02:21
China's planning to scale back coal.
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中國正在計畫減少煤炭的使用量，
02:23
It's looking to build its cities in different ways.
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尋找以不同的方式
來建立屬於自己的城市，
來建立屬於自己的城市，
02:29
Now, the growth of China
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現在，成長的中國
02:31
is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change,
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在世界經濟結構中，
02:35
in the structure of the world economy.
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產生了戲劇性且重大的變化，
02:37
Just 25 years ago, the developing countries,
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25 年前，世界上發展中的國家，
02:40
the poorer countries of the world,
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貧窮的國家，
02:42
were, notwithstanding being
the vast majority of the people,
the vast majority of the people,
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儘管這些國家的人民佔大多數，
02:46
they accounted for only about a third
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但這些人的產出
02:48
of the world's output.
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只佔世界總產出的 1/3。
02:50
Now it's more than half;
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現在這個數字已經超過一半；
02:51
25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds
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25 年後，
這些在 25 年前被我們稱為
這些在 25 年前被我們稱為
02:54
from the countries that we saw 25 years ago
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發展中國家的產出
將達到世界產出的 2/3。
02:57
as developing.
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02:59
That's a remarkable change.
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這是個驚人的成長幅度，
03:00
It means that most countries around the world,
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也就是說，世界上大部分的國家，
03:03
rich or poor, are going to be facing
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不論富有或貧窮，
03:05
the two fundamental transformations
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正面臨二個重要的轉變，
03:07
that I want to talk about and highlight.
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這是今天我要向各位說明及強調的。
03:10
Now, the first of these transformations
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第一個轉變
03:12
is the basic structural change
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是經濟及社會
03:15
of the economies and societies
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基礎結構的改變
03:16
that I've already begun to illustrate
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如我剛剛所提到的，
03:18
through the description of Beijing.
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北京的這個例子。
03:22
Fifty percent now in urban areas.
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50% 是城市地區了，
03:25
That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050.
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在 2050 年，
這個數據將提高到 70%。
這個數據將提高到 70%。
03:28
Over the next two decades, we'll see
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在接下來的 20 年，
我們將看到，
我們將看到，
03:31
the demand for energy rise by 40 percent,
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人類對能源的需求，
將提高 40%，
將提高 40%，
03:34
and the growth in the economy and in the population
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經濟及人口的成長，
03:38
is putting increasing pressure on our land,
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對於土地資源、水資源、
森林資源來說
森林資源來說
03:41
on our water and on our forests.
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將產生更大的壓力，
03:44
This is profound structural change.
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這結構的改變影響非常深遠，
03:48
If we manage it in a negligent
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如果我們忽視不予理會，
03:49
or a shortsighted way,
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或目光短淺，
03:52
we will create waste, pollution, congestion,
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我們珍貴的土地及森林，
03:56
destruction of land and forests.
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將陷入浪費、污染、
破壞、擁擠等問題。
破壞、擁擠等問題。
03:59
If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated
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如果我們對於我一再闡述的
04:02
with my numbers — cities, energy, land —
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城市、能源、土地這三個方面
04:05
if we manage all that badly,
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處理不當，
04:07
then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods
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那麼全世界的人類
04:09
of the people around the world
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在生活及生計上，
04:11
would be poor and damaged.
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將會更加貧窮及受到損害。
04:14
And more than that,
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更重要的是，
04:16
the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise,
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這會增加溫室氣體
排放到大氣層的量，
排放到大氣層的量，
04:19
with immense risks to our climate.
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對氣候造成相當大危害。
04:23
Concentrations of greenhouse gases
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大氣中
04:25
in the atmosphere are already
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溫室氣體的濃度
04:28
higher than they've been for millions of years.
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已經高於百萬年來所累積的量，
04:32
If we go on increasing those concentrations,
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如果我們繼續增加溫室氣體的濃度，
04:35
we risk temperatures over the next century or so
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下一世紀左右地球增溫的風險，
04:39
that we have not seen on this planet
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將是我們千萬年來
04:40
for tens of millions of years.
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在地球上前所未見的。
04:44
We've been around as Homo sapiens —
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我們身為所謂的現代人，
04:46
that's a rather generous definition, sapiens —
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現代人是一個相當寬廣的定義。
04:49
for perhaps a quarter of a million
years, a quarter of a million.
years, a quarter of a million.
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已經存在了大約 25 萬年，25 萬年。
04:52
We risk temperatures we haven't seen
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然而我們在這一世紀增溫的風險，
04:53
for tens of millions of years over a century.
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卻是千萬年所未見。
04:58
That would transform the relationship
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人類與地球的關係
05:00
between human beings and the planet.
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會因此改變。
05:04
It would lead to changing deserts,
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暖化導致改變沙漠，
05:09
changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes,
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改變河流，改變颶風的形成，
05:12
changing sea levels,
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改變海平面，
05:13
hundreds of millions of people,
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數億人，
05:16
perhaps billions of people who would have to move,
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甚至上兆的人必需遷移，
05:19
and if we've learned anything from history,
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如果我們以史為鏡，
05:21
that means severe and extended conflict.
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就知道這代表嚴重及持續的衝突，
05:23
And we couldn't just turn it off.
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而且我們無法停止其發生。
05:25
You can't make a peace treaty with the planet.
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你無法與地球簽訂和平條約，
05:27
You can't negotiate with the laws of physics.
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無法與物理定律協商談判。
05:30
You're in there. You're stuck.
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你住在地球上，沒有選擇的餘地。
05:31
Those are the stakes we're playing for,
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這就是我們玩的賭注，
05:33
and that's why we have to make
this second transformation,
this second transformation,
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這也是為什麼，
我們要有第二種轉變，
我們要有第二種轉變，
05:36
the climate transformation,
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氣候的轉變，
05:37
and move to a low-carbon economy.
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轉到低碳經濟，
05:40
Now, the first of these transformations
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現在，第一種轉變
05:42
is going to happen anyway.
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已然發生，
05:43
We have to decide whether to do it well or badly,
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我們得判斷要不要把它做好，
05:45
the economic, or structural, transformation.
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就是經濟或結構的轉變。
05:48
But the second of the transformations,
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但是第二種轉變，
05:50
the climate transformations, we have to decide to do.
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氣候轉變的問題，
我們必須下定決心去做。
我們必須下定決心去做。
05:54
Those two transformations face us
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這是我們未來的 20 年
05:56
in the next two decades.
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要面對的兩個轉變，
05:58
The next two decades are decisive
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未來的 20 年，是判斷我們
06:02
for what we have to do.
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要做什麼的關鍵時刻。
06:04
Now, the more I've thought about this,
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除此之外，我還想到
06:06
the two transformations coming together,
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把這兩個轉變結合在一起，
06:08
the more I've come to realize
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我了解越多，
06:09
that this is an enormous opportunity.
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越是認為這是一個大機會，
06:12
It's an opportunity which we can use
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它是我們可以善加利用的機會，
06:15
or it's an opportunity which we can lose.
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或是錯過這個良機。
06:18
And let me explain through those three key areas
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我透過城市、能源、土地三方面，
06:21
that I've identified: cities, energy and land.
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來向各位說明，
06:23
And let me start with cities.
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首先從城市開始，
06:26
I've already described the problems of Beijing:
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我已針對北京的問題作了說明，
06:30
pollution, congestion, waste and so on.
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例如：污染、擁擠、廢料等問題，
06:32
Surely we recognize that in many of our cities
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可以確定的是這個問題存在於
世界上的許多城市。
06:36
around the world.
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06:37
Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities,
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城市，就像生涯一般，
06:40
you have to think ahead.
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你必須事先想清楚，
06:43
The cities that are going to be built —
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尚未建造的城市，
06:45
and there are many, and many big ones —
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有很多大城市正在規劃中，
06:47
we have to think of how to design them
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我們必須事先設計，
06:48
in a compact way
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以簡潔的方式來設計城市
06:50
so we can save travel time
and we can save energy.
and we can save energy.
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以建造一個可以節省行程，
節省能源的城市。
節省能源的城市。
06:53
The cities that already are
there, well established,
there, well established,
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而已被建造的城市，
生根似地矗立著的，
生根似地矗立著的，
06:57
we have to think about renewal
and investment in them
and investment in them
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我們必需思考重建、
投入時間及金錢在城市上，
投入時間及金錢在城市上，
07:00
so that we can connect ourselves much better
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使我們在城市裡，
07:03
within those cities, and make it easier,
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交通更便捷，更容易連結，
07:05
encourage more people, to live closer to the center.
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鼓勵更多人居住在市中心附近。
07:09
We've got examples building around the world
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世界上，以此方法建造的都市中，
07:11
of the kinds of ways in which we can do that.
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有一個實例證明我們辦得到。
07:14
The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia
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哥倫比亞波哥大的巴士捷運系統
07:18
is a very important case of how to move around
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對如何以不污染，安全又快速的方式
07:20
safely and quickly in a non-polluting way
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在城市裡移動，是非常重要的實例。
07:23
in a city: very frequent buses,
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可以看到來回穿梭的巴士，
07:26
strongly protected routes, the same service, really,
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強烈保護的行駛路線，真的，
07:29
as an underground railway system,
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就像地下鐵路系統一般，
07:31
but much, much cheaper
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但比地鐵相對便宜很多，
07:33
and can be done much more quickly,
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而且更容易建造，
07:35
a brilliant idea in many more cities
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這個好點子，可以給
07:37
around the world that's developing.
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許多發展中國家的城市當參考。
07:39
Now, some things in cities do take time.
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城市裡，有些事做起來費時，
07:41
Some things in cities can happen much more quickly.
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有些事可以快速得到結果。
07:44
Take my hometown, London.
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以我的家鄉，倫敦來說，
07:46
In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people
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在 1952 年，有 4,000 人死於煙霧
07:52
and badly damaged the lives of many, many more.
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嚴重危及許多人的生命安全，
07:54
And it happened all the time.
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煙霧的現象一直存在。
07:56
For those of you live outside London in the U.K.
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那些住在倫敦郊區的人
07:58
will remember it used to be called The Smoke.
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對以往大煙印象非常深刻，
08:00
That's the way London was.
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這是大家所認識的以前的倫敦，
08:02
By regulating coal, within a few years
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最近這幾年來，
藉由管制煤炭的使用量，
藉由管制煤炭的使用量，
08:04
the problems of smog were rapidly reduced.
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煙霧的問題已快速地減少。
08:07
I remember the smogs well.
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我對煙霧的印象非常深刻。
08:09
When the visibility dropped to [less] than
182
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當能見度
08:11
a few meters,
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低於數公尺，
08:13
they stopped the buses and I had to walk.
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公車會停駛，而我必須走路回家。
08:15
This was the 1950s.
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這是 1950 年代的倫敦。
08:17
I had to walk home three miles from school.
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我必須從學校走三英里路回家。
08:21
Again, breathing was a hazardous activity.
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況且，吸入這些煙霧對身體有害。
08:25
But it was changed. It was changed by a decision.
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但是這個情況已改變，
被一個決策所改變，
被一個決策所改變，
08:27
Good decisions can bring good results,
189
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好的決策帶來好的結果，
08:31
striking results, quickly.
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快速產生驚人的結果。
08:33
We've seen more: In London, we've
introduced the congestion charge,
introduced the congestion charge,
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我們也知道另一件事，
進倫敦市區要付入城費以避免塞車，
進倫敦市區要付入城費以避免塞車，
08:36
actually quite quickly and effectively,
192
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實行這個制度後，
結果是既快速又有效率，
結果是既快速又有效率，
08:39
and we've seen great improvements
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在巴士運輸系統及巴士清潔系統
08:40
in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system.
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我們已看到很大的進步。
08:44
You can see that the two
transformations I've described,
transformations I've described,
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從這裡你可以了解
我所描述的這二個轉變，
我所描述的這二個轉變，
08:47
the structural and the climate,
196
515902
1956
即城市結構和氣候的問題，
08:49
come very much together.
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2632
是交互產生，
08:52
But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities,
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我們必須投資，
投資在我們居住的城市，
投資在我們居住的城市，
08:55
and we have to invest wisely, and if we do,
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而且是有智慧的投資，
如果我們這麼做，
如果我們這麼做，
08:57
we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities,
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我們將會看到更乾淨、
更安靜、更安全、
更安靜、更安全、
09:02
more attractive cities, more productive cities,
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更迷人、更有生產力的城市，
09:05
and stronger community in those cities —
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城市間有更強的社區連結 －
09:07
public transport, recycling, reusing,
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大眾運輸系統、回收再利用系統，
09:10
all sorts of things that bring communities together.
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各式各樣的系統，將社區連結起來。
09:14
We can do that, but we have to think,
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1857
我們可以這麼做，
但是我們必須思考，
但是我們必須思考，
09:16
we have to invest, we have to plan.
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我們必須投入，必須規劃，
09:18
Let me turn to energy.
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再來看能源。
09:20
Now, energy over the last 25 years
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能源的消耗在過去 25 年，
09:23
has increased by about 50 percent.
209
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2236
增加了 50%。
09:25
Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels.
210
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2617
這當中，石化燃料的消耗量佔 80%
09:28
Over the next 20 years,
211
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1658
往後的 20 年，
09:30
perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so.
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石化能源的消耗量，
或許會再增加約 40%。
或許會再增加約 40%。
09:34
We have to invest strongly in energy,
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2534
我們必須大力投資於能源，
09:36
we have to use it much more efficiently,
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3274
讓能源的使用更有效率，
09:39
and we have to make it clean.
215
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1688
我們也必須有乾淨的能源。
09:41
We can see how to do that.
216
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1330
我們很清楚該如何做，
09:42
Take the example of California.
217
570856
1904
就以加州來說，
09:44
It would be in the top 10 countries in the world
218
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2610
如果加州獨立，
09:47
if it was independent.
219
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2543
會是世界上前 10 大的國家。
09:49
I don't want to start any —
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2565
我並不想引發任何政治辯論——
09:52
(Laughter)
221
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3498
（笑聲）
09:55
California's a big place.
222
583976
1845
加州有廣大的土地。
（注：有政客在加州提議分裂）
（注：有政客在加州提議分裂）
09:57
(Laughter)
223
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2048
（笑聲）
09:59
In the next five or six years,
224
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2741
在之後 5 年或 6 年，
10:02
they will likely move from
225
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2714
加州的風力、太陽能等
10:05
around 20 percent in renewables —
226
593324
2239
再生能源，
10:07
wind, solar and so on —
227
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1757
將由原來的 20%
10:09
to over 33 percent,
228
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2473
提高到 33% 以上，
10:11
and that would bring California back
229
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2439
這會使加州於 2020 年的
10:14
to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
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2533
溫室氣體排放量
10:16
to where they were in 1990,
231
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1957
降到 1990 年時的量，
10:18
a period when the economy in California
232
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1744
而這段期間，加州的經濟
10:20
would more or less have doubled.
233
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1432
大約有 2 倍的成長，
10:21
That's a striking achievement.
234
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1450
那是很驚人的成就。
10:23
It shows what can be done.
235
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1483
再再顯示，這可以達成。
10:24
Not just California — the
incoming government of India
incoming government of India
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3307
不僅是加州，
新任印度政府也正在規劃
新任印度政府也正在規劃
10:28
is planning to get solar technology
237
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3026
使用太陽能科技
10:31
to light up the homes
238
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1372
以點亮
10:32
of 400 million people
239
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1710
沒有電力可使用的
10:34
who don't have electricity in India.
240
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2065
4 億印度人口的家。
10:36
They've set themselves a target of five years.
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2480
他們設定 5 年的目標，
10:38
I think they've got a good chance of doing that.
242
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我想印度極有可能達到這個目標。
10:42
We'll see, but what you're seeing now
243
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2659
我們等著瞧，但你現在看到的是
10:44
is people moving much more quickly.
244
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2311
人們行動的速度比以前快。
10:46
Four hundred million, more than the population
245
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1734
4 億印度人，
10:48
of the United States.
246
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2126
比美國人口還多，
10:50
Those are the kinds of ambitions now
247
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2093
他們野心勃勃
10:52
people are setting themselves
248
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1706
就快速變化而言，
10:54
in terms of rapidity of change.
249
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4480
印度人已準備好接受挑戰。
10:59
Again, you can see
250
647129
1970
除此之外，你可看到
11:01
good decisions can bring quick results,
251
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1781
好的決策，可以快速產生結果，
11:02
and those two transformations,
the economy and the structure
the economy and the structure
252
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3033
而這二個轉變，經濟與城市結構，
11:05
and the climate and the low carbon,
253
653913
1991
氣候與低碳，
11:07
are intimately intertwined.
254
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2543
相互交織，相互影響。
11:10
Do the first one well, the structural,
255
658447
1822
把第一個，也就是城市結構做好，
11:12
the second one on the climate
256
660269
1981
那第二個要轉變氣候，
11:14
becomes much easier.
257
662250
3182
就會變得更加容易。
11:17
Look at land,
258
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1789
看看土地，
11:19
land and particularly forests.
259
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2588
特別是森林。
11:21
Forests are the hosts to valuable
260
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3060
森林是
11:24
plant and animal species.
261
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2529
珍貴希有植物及各類動物的家。
11:27
They hold water in the soil
262
675398
2348
森林可以保持水土
11:29
and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,
263
677746
2918
減少大氣層的二氧化碳，
11:32
fundamental to the tackling of climate change.
264
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3069
是解決氣候變遷的基礎。
11:35
But we're losing our forests.
265
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2232
但我們正漸漸失去森林，
11:37
In the last decade, we've lost a forest area
266
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2827
過去 10 年，
我們失去葡萄牙大小的森林，
11:40
the size of Portugal,
267
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2143
11:42
and much more has been degraded.
268
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2463
而許多森林已受到破壞。
11:45
But we're already seeing
269
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1755
我們已經了解
11:47
that we can do so much about that.
270
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2407
我們可以為森林做許多事。
11:49
We can recognize the problem, but we can also
271
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2037
我們了解問題所在，同時也了解
11:51
understand how to tackle it.
272
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2114
如何去解決這個問題。
11:53
In Brazil, the rate of deforestation
273
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2655
在巴西，過去 10 年，
11:56
has been reduced by 70 percent
274
704366
2017
森林砍伐率
11:58
over the last 10 years.
275
706383
2562
已減少了 70%
12:00
How? By involving local communities,
276
708945
2985
巴西人是如何做到的？
他們結合當地居民，
他們結合當地居民，
12:03
investing in their agriculture and their economies,
277
711930
2821
在投資於農業及經濟時，
12:06
by monitoring more carefully,
278
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2100
更加小心地謹慎地控管，
12:08
by enforcing the law more strictly.
279
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3645
及更嚴格地執法。
12:12
And it's not just stopping deforestation.
280
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1890
不僅是禁止砍伐森林而已。
12:14
That's of course of first and fundamental importance,
281
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2441
這當然是當務之急，也是基本原則，
12:16
but it's also regrading degraded land,
282
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3622
並且使已退化的土地再生，
12:20
regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land.
283
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4400
讓退化的土地重建、復原。
12:24
I first went to Ethiopia in 1967.
284
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3880
我於 1967 年第一次到伊索比亞，
12:28
It was desperately poor. In the following years,
285
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2475
人民極為貧困。在接下來的幾年裡，
12:31
it suffered devastating famines
286
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1746
人民飽受飢荒之苦，
12:32
and profoundly destructive social conflict.
287
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3856
及嚴重性的社會衝突。
12:36
Over the last few years, actually more than a few,
288
744806
2834
在過去的幾年中，其實不只幾年，
伊索比亞已快速發展。
12:39
Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly.
289
747640
2925
12:42
It has ambitions to be a middle-income country
290
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1890
在未年的 15 年有野心
12:44
15 years from now
291
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2505
成為中等收入的國家，
12:46
and to be carbon neutral.
292
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2243
並成為碳中和的國家。
12:49
Again, I think it's a strong ambition
293
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3048
我想這的確是一個很大的目標，
12:52
but it is a plausible one.
294
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2295
卻是可以實現的。
12:54
You're seeing that commitment there.
295
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1411
因為達成目標的承諾就在你眼前。
12:55
You're seeing what can be done.
296
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1266
你知道什麼事會被實踐。
12:57
Ethiopia is investing in clean energy.
297
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2565
因為伊索比亞投入清潔能源。
12:59
It's working in the rehabilitation of land.
298
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3622
他們投入土地復原的工作。
13:03
In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia,
299
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2430
他們在伊索比亞西南部的洪堡
13:05
a wonderful project
300
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1417
成位一個非常好的專案，
13:07
to plant trees on degraded land
301
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2183
在退化的土地上種樹，
13:09
and work with local communities
302
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1620
與當地居民一起從事
13:11
on sustainable forest management
303
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2449
永續森林管理的工作，
13:13
has led to big increases in living standards.
304
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3041
如此一來，大大提高人民生活水準。
13:16
So we can see, from Beijing to London,
305
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3864
我們可以看到，從北京到倫敦，
13:20
from California to India,
306
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2289
從加州到印度，
13:22
from Brazil to Ethiopia,
307
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3127
從巴西到伊索比亞，
13:25
we do understand
308
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1609
我們確實明白
13:27
how to manage those two transformations,
309
795439
2205
如何管理這二個轉變，
13:29
the structural and the climate.
310
797644
1929
即城市結構及氣候。
13:31
We do understand how to manage those well.
311
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4179
我們的確知道如何好好管理。
13:35
And technology is changing very rapidly.
312
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2778
科技技術日新月異，
13:38
I don't have to list all those things
313
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2407
我不需向你們
13:40
to an audience like this,
314
808937
1891
一一列舉，
13:42
but you can see the electric cars,
315
810828
2294
以電動車來說，
13:45
you can see the batteries using new materials.
316
813122
3084
使用新材料做電池。
13:48
You can see that we can manage remotely now
317
816206
2395
當你不在家，
13:50
our household appliances on our
mobile phones when we're away.
mobile phones when we're away.
318
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3555
可以用手機遙控家電用品。
13:54
You can see better insulation.
319
822156
1807
你可看到有更好的絕緣材料問市。
13:55
And there's much more coming.
320
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1923
更多的科技產品上市。
13:57
But, and it's a big but,
321
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2397
但是，我要強調但是，
14:00
the world as a whole
322
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1609
這整個世界
14:01
is moving far too slowly.
323
829892
2778
往前邁進的速度太慢。
14:04
We're not cutting emissions in the way we should.
324
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2542
我們並沒有用對的方法
減少溫室氣體的排放量，
減少溫室氣體的排放量，
14:07
We're not managing those structural transformations
325
835212
2711
我們也沒有用我們能做的方法
14:09
as we can.
326
837923
2229
去轉變城市結構。
14:12
The depth of understanding of the
immense risks of climate change
immense risks of climate change
327
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3239
人們尚未深刻了解，
14:15
are not there yet.
328
843391
3579
氣候變遷的巨大風險。
14:18
The depth of understanding
329
846970
2131
也尚未深刻了解
14:21
of the attractiveness of what we can do
330
849101
2485
我們做這些對我們
14:23
is not there yet.
331
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3664
有什麼好處。
14:27
We need political pressure to build.
332
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3498
我們要建立政治影響力。
14:30
We need leaders to step up.
333
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3532
需要領導者建立機制。
14:34
We can have better growth,
334
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3499
我們會有更好的發展、
14:37
better climate, a better world.
335
865779
4207
更好的氣候、更美好的世界。
14:41
We can make,
336
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1812
我們肯定做得到，
14:43
by managing those two transformations well,
337
871798
2780
要把這二個轉變管理好
14:46
the next 100 years the best of centuries.
338
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4288
使下一個 100 年，成為最好的世紀。
14:50
If we make a mess of it,
339
878866
1227
如果我們把它搞砸了，
14:52
we, you and me, if we make a mess of it,
340
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3147
我們，包括你和我，搞砸了這件事，
14:55
if we don't manage those transformations properly,
341
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2473
沒有把這二個轉變管理好，
14:57
it will be, the next 100 years
342
885713
2891
那麼，未來的 100 年，
15:00
will be the worst of centuries.
343
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2731
將會是最慘的世紀。
15:03
That's the major conclusion
344
891335
1892
以上是經濟和氣候
15:05
of the report on the economy and climate
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主要研究結果的報告，
15:08
chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico,
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由前墨西哥總統費利佩·卡爾德龍
15:12
and I co-chaired that with him,
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和我共同主持的會議中提出，
15:14
and we handed that report yesterday
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昨天在紐約的聯合國大廈
15:16
here in New York, in the United Nations Building
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提出該報告給
15:19
to the Secretary-General of the U.N.,
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聯合國秘書長
15:20
Ban Ki-moon.
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潘基文。
15:22
We know that we can do this.
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我們知道我們可以這麼做。
15:26
Now, two weeks ago,
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二週以前，
15:29
I became a grandfather for the fourth time.
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我的第 4 個孫子出生了，
15:32
Our daughter —
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我的女兒
15:35
(Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) —
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（嬰兒哭聲）（笑聲）（掌聲）
15:45
Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York
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二週以前，我女兒在紐約生下羅莎。
15:48
two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa.
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這是海倫和羅莎。
15:51
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
15:58
Two weeks old.
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出生二週的孫子。
16:01
Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye
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難道我們要看著孫子的眼睛，
16:07
and tell them that we understood the issues,
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然後告訴孫子們，
我們已明白這些問題，
我們已明白這些問題，
16:11
that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities,
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也了解危險及機會，
16:14
and still we failed to act?
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卻不身體力行？
16:18
Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years
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當然不會，讓我們的下一個 100 年
16:22
the best of centuries.
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成為最好的世紀。
16:24
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nicholas Stern - Climate economistLord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy."
Why you should listen
Lord Nicholas Stern is the author of the seminal 2006 Review on the Economics of Climate Change, one of the most influential papers discussing the real economic implications of addressing (or not addressing) climate. The former Chief Economist at the World Bank, Lord Nicholas is now the IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government at the London School of Economics and Chairman of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. Since 2013, he has been President of the British Academy. His research and publications have focused on the economics of climate change, economic development and growth, economic theory, tax reform, public policy and the role of the state and economies in transition.
In 2014, as part of a commission chaired by Felipe Calderon, Lord Nicholas helped produce a report titled "The New Climate Economy," laying out an economic plan for countering climate change.
Nicholas Stern | Speaker | TED.com