TED@Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany
Julian Burschka: What your breath could reveal about your health
Džulijan Burška (Julian Burschka): Šta vaš dah može otkriti o vašem zdravlju
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2,091,356 views
Nema boljeg načina da se bolest zaustavi nego da se rano uoči i leči, pre nego što se simptomi pojave. To je cela poenta medicinske tehnike skrininga, kao što su radiografija, magnetna rezonanca i testovi krvi. Ali postoji jedno sredstvo sa previđenim potencijalom za medicinsku analizu: vaš dah. Tehnolog Džulijan Burška deli naučne novosti o analizi daha, skriningu isparljivih organskih jedinjenja u vašem izdahu, i kako se to može koristiti kao moćna alatka za otkrivanje, predviđanje i, na kraju, sprečavanje bolesti.
Julian Burschka - Technologist
Driven by his curiosity, Julian Burschka is combining multiple technical disciplines with strong business acumen to drive innovation and enable new technological advancements. Full bio
Driven by his curiosity, Julian Burschka is combining multiple technical disciplines with strong business acumen to drive innovation and enable new technological advancements. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I have a tendency to assume the worst,
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Ja imam običaj da pretpostavljam najgore,
00:15
and once in a while,
this habit plays tricks on me.
this habit plays tricks on me.
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i s vremena na vreme,
ta navika se poigra sa mnom.
ta navika se poigra sa mnom.
00:18
For example, if I feel
unexpected pain in my body
unexpected pain in my body
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Na primer, ako osetim iznenadni bol u telu
00:21
that I have not experienced before
and that I cannot attribute,
and that I cannot attribute,
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koji pre toga nisam doživeo
i koji ne mogu da identifikujem,
i koji ne mogu da identifikujem,
00:25
then all of a sudden, my mind
might turn a tense back into heart disease
might turn a tense back into heart disease
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moj mozak ga tada iznenada
može pretvoriti u srčano oboljenje,
može pretvoriti u srčano oboljenje,
00:30
or calf muscle pain
into deep vein thrombosis.
into deep vein thrombosis.
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a bol u mišićima u trombozu dubokih vena.
00:33
But so far, I haven't been diagnosed
with any deadly or incurable disease.
with any deadly or incurable disease.
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Do sada mi nije dijagnostikovana
smrtonosna ili neizlečiva bolest.
smrtonosna ili neizlečiva bolest.
00:37
Sometimes things just hurt
for no clear reason.
for no clear reason.
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Ponekad nešto jednostavno boli
bez ikakvog jasnog razloga.
bez ikakvog jasnog razloga.
00:41
But not everyone is as lucky as me.
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Ali nisu svi te sreće kao ja.
00:43
Every year, more than
50 million people die worldwide.
50 million people die worldwide.
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Svake godine, širom sveta
umre 50 miliona ljudi.
umre 50 miliona ljudi.
00:48
Especially in high-income
economies like ours,
economies like ours,
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Pogotovo u bogatim zemljama,
kao što je naša,
kao što je naša,
00:51
a large fraction of deaths is caused
by slowly progressing diseases:
by slowly progressing diseases:
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veliki broj smrtnih slučajeva uzrokuju
bolesti koje se sporo razvijaju:
bolesti koje se sporo razvijaju:
00:56
heart disease, chronic lung disease,
cancer, Alzheimer's, diabetes,
cancer, Alzheimer's, diabetes,
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srčana oboljenja, hronične bolesti pluća,
rak, Alchajmerova bolest i dijabetes
rak, Alchajmerova bolest i dijabetes
01:00
just to name a few.
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su samo neke od njih.
01:03
Now, humanity has made tremendous progress
in diagnosing and treating many of these.
in diagnosing and treating many of these.
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Čovečanstvo je ostvarilo ogroman napredak
u otkrivanju i lečenju
većine ovih bolesti.
većine ovih bolesti.
01:08
But we are at a stage
where further advancement in health
where further advancement in health
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Trenutno se nalazimo u fazi
gde se budući napredak u zdravstvu
gde se budući napredak u zdravstvu
01:12
cannot be achieved only
by developing new treatments.
by developing new treatments.
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ne može postići
samo razvojem novih lekova.
samo razvojem novih lekova.
01:15
And this becomes evident
when we look at one aspect
when we look at one aspect
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Ovo postaje očigledno
ako posmatramo jedan aspekt
ako posmatramo jedan aspekt
01:17
that many of these
diseases have in common:
diseases have in common:
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koji mnoge od ovih bolesti dele.
01:21
the probability for successful treatment
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Verovatnoća uspešnog lečenja
01:24
strongly depends on
when treatment is started.
when treatment is started.
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veoma zavisi od momenta
kada je lečenje započeto.
kada je lečenje započeto.
01:27
But a disease is typically only detected
once symptoms occur.
once symptoms occur.
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Ali bolest se obično uoči
tek kada se pojave simptomi.
tek kada se pojave simptomi.
01:31
The problem here is that, in fact,
many diseases can remain asymptomatic,
many diseases can remain asymptomatic,
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Problem je što, u stvari, mnoge bolesti
ostaju bez simptoma,
ostaju bez simptoma,
01:36
hence undetected,
for a long period of time.
for a long period of time.
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a samim tim i neotkrivene jako dug period.
01:39
Because of this, there is
a persisting need for new ways
a persisting need for new ways
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Upravo zbog ovoga, postoji
stalna potreba za novim načinima
stalna potreba za novim načinima
01:43
of detecting disease at early stage,
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otkrivanja bolesti u ranoj fazi,
01:45
way before any symptoms occur.
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pre nego što se bilo koji simptom pojavi.
01:49
In health care, this is called screening.
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U zdravstvenoj zaštiti,
ovo se zove skrining.
ovo se zove skrining.
01:51
And as defined by
the World Health Organization,
the World Health Organization,
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Kako je definisan od strane
Svetske zdravstvene organizacije,
Svetske zdravstvene organizacije,
01:54
screening is "the presumptive
identification of unrecognized disease
identification of unrecognized disease
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skrining je „pretpostavljena
identifikacija neprepoznate bolesti
identifikacija neprepoznate bolesti
02:00
in an apparently healthy person,
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kod naizgled zdrave osobe,
02:02
by means of tests ... that can be applied
rapidly and easily ..."
rapidly and easily ..."
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kroz razne testove koji se mogu
primeniti brzo i lako."
primeniti brzo i lako."
02:07
That's a long definition,
so let me repeat it:
so let me repeat it:
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To je dugačka definicija,
pa ću je ponoviti.
pa ću je ponoviti.
02:10
identification of unrecognized disease
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Identifikacija neprepoznatih bolesti
02:13
in an apparently healthy person
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kod naizgled zdravih osoba
02:16
by means of tests that can be applied
both rapidly and easily.
both rapidly and easily.
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kroz razne testove
koji se mogu primeniti brzo i lako.
koji se mogu primeniti brzo i lako.
02:20
And I want to put special emphasis
on the words "rapidly" and "easily"
on the words "rapidly" and "easily"
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Želim posebno da naglasim
reči „brzo" i „lako"
reči „brzo" i „lako"
zato su što mnoge
od postojećih metoda skrininga
od postojećih metoda skrininga
02:23
because many of the existing
screening methods
screening methods
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02:25
are exactly the opposite.
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upravo suprotno.
02:28
And those of you
who have undergone colonoscopy
who have undergone colonoscopy
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A oni koji su bili podvrgnuti koloskopiji
02:30
as part of a screening program
for colorectal cancer
for colorectal cancer
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kao delu skrininga za rak debelog creva
02:34
will know what I mean.
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znaju o čemu govorim.
02:37
Obviously, there's a variety
of medical tools available
of medical tools available
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Očigledno, postoje brojni medicinski alati
02:40
to perform screening tests.
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da bi se izvršio test skrininga.
02:42
This ranges from imaging techniques
such as radiography
such as radiography
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Od tehnika snimanja,
kao što je npr. radiografija,
kao što je npr. radiografija,
02:46
or magnetic resonance imaging
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ili magnetna rezonanca,
02:48
to the analysis of blood or tissue.
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do analiza krvi i tkiva.
02:50
We have all had such tests.
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Svi smo prošli takve testove.
02:53
But there's one medium
that for long has been overlooked:
that for long has been overlooked:
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Ali postoji jedan način
koji je dugo vremena bio zapostavljen,
koji je dugo vremena bio zapostavljen,
02:57
a medium that is easily accessible,
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način koji je lako dostupan,
03:00
basically nondepletable,
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koji je u suštini neiscrpan,
03:02
and it holds tremendous promise
for medical analysis.
for medical analysis.
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i ima neverovatan potencijal
za medicinske analize.
za medicinske analize.
03:06
And that is our breath.
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A to je naš dah.
03:10
Human breath is essentially
composed of five components:
composed of five components:
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Ljudski dah je u osnovi sačinjen
od pet komponenti:
od pet komponenti:
03:14
nitrogen, oxygen, carbon dioxide,
water and argon.
water and argon.
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azot, kiseonik,
ugljen-dioksid, voda i argon.
ugljen-dioksid, voda i argon.
03:21
But besides these five, there are
hundreds of other components
hundreds of other components
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Pored ovih pet,
postoje stotine drugih sastojaka
postoje stotine drugih sastojaka
03:24
that are present in very low quantity.
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koji su prisutni u veoma malim količinama.
03:27
These are called volatile
organic compounds,
organic compounds,
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Oni se nazivaju isparljiva
organska jedinjenja,
organska jedinjenja,
03:29
and we release hundreds,
even thousands of them
even thousands of them
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i mi ih ispuštamo na stotine,
ako ne i hiljade
ako ne i hiljade
03:32
every time we exhale.
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sa svakim izdahom.
03:35
The analysis of these volatile
organic compounds in our breath
organic compounds in our breath
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Analiza ovih isparljivih
organskih jedinjenja iz našeg daha
organskih jedinjenja iz našeg daha
03:38
is called breath analysis.
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naziva se analiza daha.
03:41
In fact, I believe that many of you
have already experienced breath analysis.
have already experienced breath analysis.
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U stvari, ja verujem da je dosta vas
već imalo iskustva sa analizom daha.
već imalo iskustva sa analizom daha.
Zamislite: vozite se kući kasno noću,
03:45
Imagine: you're driving home
late at night,
late at night,
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03:48
when suddenly, there's
a friendly police officer
a friendly police officer
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kad odjednom, prijatan policajac
03:51
who asks you kindly but firmly
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vas ljubazno, ali odlučno,
03:54
to pull over and blow
into a device like this one.
into a device like this one.
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zamoli da stanete i da duvate
u napravu sličnu ovoj.
u napravu sličnu ovoj.
03:59
This is an alcohol breath tester
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Ovo je alko-tester na dah,
04:02
that is used to measure
the ethanol concentration in your breath
the ethanol concentration in your breath
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koji se koristi kako bi se izmerio
nivo etanola u vašem dahu
nivo etanola u vašem dahu
04:06
and determine whether driving
in your condition is a clever idea.
in your condition is a clever idea.
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da bi se videlo da li je vožnja
u vašem stanju pametna ideja.
u vašem stanju pametna ideja.
04:10
Now, I'd say my driving was pretty good,
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Rekao bih da sam dobro vozio,
04:12
but let me check.
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ali hajde da proverim.
04:14
(Beep)
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(Bip)
04:20
0.0, so nothing
to worry about, all fine.
to worry about, all fine.
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Pokazuje 0,0 - znači, nema potrebe
za brigom, sve je u redu.
za brigom, sve je u redu.
04:23
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:26
Now imagine a device like this one,
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Sad zamislite napravu sličnu ovoj,
04:28
that does not only measure
alcohol levels in your breath,
alcohol levels in your breath,
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koja ne samo da meri
nivo alkohola u vašem dahu,
nivo alkohola u vašem dahu,
04:31
but that detects diseases
like the ones I've shown you
like the ones I've shown you
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nego detektuje bolesti,
kao one što sam vam pokazivao
kao one što sam vam pokazivao
04:35
and potentially many more.
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i možda još mnogo više.
04:38
The concept of correlating
the smell of a person's breath
the smell of a person's breath
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Koncept povezivanja mirisa iz nečijeg daha
04:42
with certain medical conditions,
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sa određenim medicinskim problemima
04:44
in fact, dates back to Ancient Greece.
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u stvari datira iz drevne Grčke.
04:47
But only recently, research efforts
on breath analysis have skyrocketed,
on breath analysis have skyrocketed,
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Međutim, tek je nedavno napor istraživača
vezan za analizu daha urodio plodom,
vezan za analizu daha urodio plodom,
04:52
and what once was a dream
is now becoming reality.
is now becoming reality.
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te ono što je nekada bilo san
sada postaje stvarnost.
sada postaje stvarnost.
04:57
And let me pull up this list again
that I showed you earlier.
that I showed you earlier.
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Dozvolite mi da vratim listu
koju sam vam pokazao ranije.
koju sam vam pokazao ranije.
05:01
For the majority of diseases listed here,
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Za većinu ovde nabrojanih bolesti,
05:04
there's substantial scientific evidence
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postoje značajni naučni dokazi
05:06
suggesting that the disease
could be detected by breath analysis.
could be detected by breath analysis.
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koji upućuju na to da se bolest
može otkriti analizom daha.
može otkriti analizom daha.
05:11
But how does it work, exactly?
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Kako to tačno funkcioniše?
05:14
The essential part is a sensor device
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Osnovni deo je senzor naprave
05:17
that detects the volatile
organic compounds in our breath.
organic compounds in our breath.
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koji detektuje isparljiva
organska jedinjenja u našem dahu.
organska jedinjenja u našem dahu.
05:21
Simply put: when exposed
to a breath sample,
to a breath sample,
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Jednostavno rečeno,
kada se izloži uzorku daha,
kada se izloži uzorku daha,
05:24
the sensor outputs a complex signature
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senzor izbacuje složen šablon
05:27
that results from the mixture of volatile
organic compounds that we exhale.
organic compounds that we exhale.
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koji je rezultat mešavine isparljivih
organskih jedinjenja koje smo izdahnuli.
organskih jedinjenja koje smo izdahnuli.
05:32
Now, this signature represents
a fingerprint of your metabolism,
a fingerprint of your metabolism,
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Ovaj šablon je otisak našeg metabolizma,
05:36
your microbiome
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vašeg mikrobioma
05:37
and the biochemical processes
that occur in your body.
that occur in your body.
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i biohemijskih procesa
koji se javljaju u vašem telu.
koji se javljaju u vašem telu.
05:41
If you have a disease,
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Ako imate neku bolest,
05:43
your organism will change,
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vaš organizam će se promeniti,
05:45
and so will the composition
of your exhaled breath.
of your exhaled breath.
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a isto tako i struktura vašeg izdaha.
05:49
And then the only thing that is left to do
is to correlate a certain signature
is to correlate a certain signature
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Sve što tada ostaje da se uradi
je da se poveže određeni šablon
je da se poveže određeni šablon
05:54
with the presence or absence
of certain medical conditions.
of certain medical conditions.
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sa prisustvom ili odsustvom
određenog medicinskog stanja.
određenog medicinskog stanja.
05:59
The technology promises
several undeniable benefits.
several undeniable benefits.
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Ova tehnologija nudi
nekoliko nepobitnih koristi.
nekoliko nepobitnih koristi.
06:03
Firstly, the sensor can be miniaturized
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Prvo, senzor može biti minijaturan
06:06
and integrated into small,
handheld devices
handheld devices
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i stavljen u ručne naprave
06:09
like this alcohol breath tester.
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kao što je ovaj alko-test na dah.
To bi omogućilo da se ovaj test
koristi u različitim okruženjima,
koristi u različitim okruženjima,
06:12
This would allow the test to be used
in many different settings
in many different settings
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06:15
and even at home,
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čak i kod kuće,
06:17
so that a visit at the doctor's office
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što znači da posete doktoru
06:19
is not needed each time
a test shall be performed.
a test shall be performed.
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nisu potrebne svaki put
kad se ovaj test radi.
kad se ovaj test radi.
06:22
Secondly, breath analysis is noninvasive
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Drugo, analiza daha je neinvazivna
06:26
and can be as simple as blowing
into an alcohol breath tester.
into an alcohol breath tester.
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i može biti jednostavna
kao duvanje u alko-tester.
kao duvanje u alko-tester.
06:30
Such simplicity and ease of use
would reduce patient burden
would reduce patient burden
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Ovakva jednostavnost i lako korišćenje
bi smanjilo teret pacijenta
bi smanjilo teret pacijenta
06:35
and provide an incentive
for broad adoption of the technology.
for broad adoption of the technology.
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i podstaklo širu upotrebu ove tehnologije.
06:39
And thirdly, the technology is so flexible
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Treće, ova tehnologija je tako fleksibilna
06:44
that the same device could be used
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da se jedna naprava može koristiti
06:46
to detect a broad range
of medical conditions.
of medical conditions.
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za otkrivanje širokog spektra
medicinskih stanja.
medicinskih stanja.
06:50
Breath analysis could be used to screen
for multiple diseases at the same time.
for multiple diseases at the same time.
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Analiza daha može se koristiti
za skrining više bolesti u isto vreme.
za skrining više bolesti u isto vreme.
06:56
Nowadays, each disease typically requires
a different medical tool
a different medical tool
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U današnje vreme, svaka bolest
obično zahteva drugačiji medicinski alat
obično zahteva drugačiji medicinski alat
06:59
to perform a screening test.
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da bi se izvršio test skrininga.
07:01
But this means you can only find
what you're looking for.
what you're looking for.
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Što znači da možete naći
samo ono za čim tragate.
samo ono za čim tragate.
07:06
With all of these features,
breath analysis is predestined
breath analysis is predestined
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Uz sve ove karakteristike,
analiza daha je predodređena
analiza daha je predodređena
07:10
to deliver what many traditional
screening tests are lacking.
screening tests are lacking.
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da pruži ono što mnogim tradicionalnim
testovima skrininga manjka.
testovima skrininga manjka.
07:14
And most importantly,
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A ono što je najvažnije,
07:16
all of these features should
eventually provide us
eventually provide us
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sve ove karakteristike
bi jednom trebalo da nam obezbede
bi jednom trebalo da nam obezbede
07:19
with a platform for medical analysis
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platformu za medicinsku analizu
07:22
that can operate at attractively
low cost per test.
low cost per test.
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koja može da funkcioniše
sa veoma niskom cenom po testu.
sa veoma niskom cenom po testu.
07:27
On the contrary, existing medical tools
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Suprotno tome, postojeći medicinski alati
07:30
often lead to rather high cost per test.
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obično vode ka skupoj ceni po testu.
07:33
Then, in order to keep costs down,
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Onda, da bi se snizili troškovi,
07:36
the number of tests
needs to be restricted,
needs to be restricted,
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broj testova mora biti ograničen,
07:39
and this means (a) that the tests
can only be performed
can only be performed
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što znači, pod a,
da se testovi mogu sprovesti
da se testovi mogu sprovesti
07:42
on a narrow part of the population,
for example, the high-risk population;
for example, the high-risk population;
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samo na malom delu populacije,
npr. u visokorizičnim grupama;
npr. u visokorizičnim grupama;
07:47
and (b) that the number of tests
per person needs to be kept at a minimum.
per person needs to be kept at a minimum.
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i pod b, da broj testova po osobi
treba držati na minimumu.
treba držati na minimumu.
07:53
But wouldn't it actually be beneficial
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Zar ne bi bilo korisno
07:55
if the test was performed
on a larger group of people,
on a larger group of people,
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da se test izvodi na većoj grupi ljudi,
07:58
and more often and over a longer period
of time for each individual?
of time for each individual?
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češće i u dužem periodu
za svakog ponaosob?
za svakog ponaosob?
08:03
Especially the latter would give access
to something very valuable
to something very valuable
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Ovo drugo bi dalo pristup
nečem veoma vrednom,
nečem veoma vrednom,
08:07
that is called longitudinal data.
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a to su longitudinalni podaci.
08:10
Longitudinal data is a data set
that tracks the same patient
that tracks the same patient
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Longitudinalni podaci su skup podataka
koji se odnose na jednog pacijenta,
koji se odnose na jednog pacijenta,
08:15
over the course of many months or years.
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prikupljenih tokom mnogo
meseci ili godina.
meseci ili godina.
08:19
Nowadays, medical decisions
are often based on a limited data set,
are often based on a limited data set,
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Medicinske odluke danas su često zasnovane
na ograničenom skupu podataka,
na ograničenom skupu podataka,
08:24
where only a glimpse
of a patient's medical history
of a patient's medical history
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pri čemu je samo delić
pacijentove medicinske istorije
pacijentove medicinske istorije
08:27
is available for decision-making.
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dostupan za donošenje odluke.
08:30
In such a case,
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U ovakvim slučajevima,
08:32
abnormalities are typically detected
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anomalije se obično otkrivaju
08:35
by comparing a patient's health profile
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poređenjem zdravstvenog profila pacijenta
08:37
to the average health profile
of a reference population.
of a reference population.
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sa prosečnim zdravstvenim profilom
referentne populacije.
referentne populacije.
08:42
Longitudinal data would
open up a new dimension
open up a new dimension
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Longitudalni podaci bi otvorili
sasvim novu dimenziju
sasvim novu dimenziju
08:46
and allow abnormalities to be detected
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i dozvolili anomalijama da budu otkrivene
08:49
based on a patient's own medical history.
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na osnovu medicinske istorije pacijenta.
08:52
This will pave the way
for personalized treatment.
for personalized treatment.
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Ovo će trasirati put
ka personalizovanom lečenju.
ka personalizovanom lečenju.
08:56
Sounds pretty great, right?
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Zvuči odlično, zar ne?
08:59
Now you will certainly have a question
that is something like,
that is something like,
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Sada ćete verovatno pitati sledeće:
09:02
"If the technology is as great as he says,
then why aren't we using it today?"
then why aren't we using it today?"
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„Ako je ta tehnologija tako dobra
kao što tvrdi, zašto je ne koristimo?”
kao što tvrdi, zašto je ne koristimo?”
09:07
And the only answer I can give you is:
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Jedini odgovor koji vam mogu dati je:
09:09
not everything is as easy as it sounds.
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nije sve tako jednostavno kao što zvuči.
09:12
There are technical
challenges, for example.
challenges, for example.
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Postoje tehnički izazovi.
Na primer, potrebni su
veoma pouzdani senzori
veoma pouzdani senzori
09:16
There's the need for
extremely reliable sensors
extremely reliable sensors
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09:19
that can detect mixtures
of volatile organic compounds
of volatile organic compounds
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koji mogu otkriti mešavine
isparljivih organskih jedinjenja
isparljivih organskih jedinjenja
09:22
with sufficient reproducibility.
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sa dovoljnom mogućnošću
ponavljanja rezultata.
ponavljanja rezultata.
09:25
And another technical challenge is this:
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A tu je još jedan tehnički izazov:
09:28
How do you sample a person's breath
in a very defined manner
in a very defined manner
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kako uzimati uzorak daha
na veoma određen način
na veoma određen način
09:33
so that the sampling process itself
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da sam proces uzimanja uzorka
09:35
does not alter the result of the analysis?
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ne menja rezultate analize?
09:39
And there's the need for data.
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Takođe postoji i potreba za podacima.
09:41
Breath analysis needs
to be validated in clinical trials,
to be validated in clinical trials,
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Analiza daha treba da bude
potvrđena kliničkim ispitivanjima
potvrđena kliničkim ispitivanjima
09:45
and enough data needs to be collected
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i potrebno je prikupiti dovoljno podataka
09:48
so that individual conditions
can be measured against baselines.
can be measured against baselines.
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kako bi se pojedinačna stanja
mogla uporediti sa osnovnim parametrom.
mogla uporediti sa osnovnim parametrom.
09:53
Breath analysis can only succeed
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Analiza daha može biti uspešna
09:55
if a large enough data set
can be generated
can be generated
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samo ako može da se prikupi
dovoljno velika baza podataka
dovoljno velika baza podataka
09:58
and made available for broad use.
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koja će biti dostupna za širu upotrebu.
10:03
If breath analysis
holds up to its promises,
holds up to its promises,
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Ako analiza daha ispuni očekivanja,
10:06
this is a technology
that could truly aid us
that could truly aid us
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onda je ovo tehnologija
koja nam stvarno može pomoći
koja nam stvarno može pomoći
10:09
to transform our health care system --
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da transformišemo naš zdravstveni sistem -
10:12
transform it from a reactive system
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transformišemo ga iz reaktivnog sistema,
10:15
where treatment is triggered
by symptoms of disease
by symptoms of disease
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gde je lečenje inicirano
simptomima bolesti,
simptomima bolesti,
10:18
to a proactive system,
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u proaktivni sistem,
10:20
where disease detection,
diagnosis and treatment
diagnosis and treatment
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gde se bolest otkriva,
dijagnostikuje i leči
dijagnostikuje i leči
10:24
can happen at early stage,
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u ranoj fazi,
10:25
way before any symptoms occur.
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mnogo pre nego što se simptomi pojave.
10:29
Now this brings me to my last point,
and it's a fundamental one.
and it's a fundamental one.
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Što me dovodi do poslednje tačke,
koja je najznačajnija.
koja je najznačajnija.
10:33
What exactly is a disease?
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Šta je u stvari bolest?
10:36
Imagine that breath analysis
can be commercialized as I describe it,
can be commercialized as I describe it,
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Zamislite da se analiza daha
komercijalizuje, kao što sam opisao,
komercijalizuje, kao što sam opisao,
10:40
and early detection becomes routine.
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i rano otkrivanje bolesti postane rutina.
10:44
A problem that remains
is, in fact, a problem
is, in fact, a problem
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Problem koji ostaje
10:46
that any screening activity has to face
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je onaj sa kojim se suočava svaki skrining
10:49
because, for many diseases,
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zato što je, za mnoge bolesti,
10:51
it is often impossible to predict
with sufficient certainty
with sufficient certainty
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često nemoguće predvideti sa sigurnošću
10:55
whether the disease
would ever cause any symptoms
would ever cause any symptoms
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da li će bolest
uopšte izazvati neke simptome
uopšte izazvati neke simptome
10:58
or put a person's life at risk.
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ili dovesti osobu u životnu opasnost.
11:00
This is called overdiagnosis,
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Ovo se zove hiperdijagnostika,
11:03
and it leads to a dilemma.
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koja stvara dilemu.
11:05
If a disease is identified,
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Ako je bolest identifikovana,
11:08
you could decide not to treat it
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možete odlučiti da je ne lečite
11:10
because there's a certain probability
that you would never suffer from it.
that you would never suffer from it.
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zato što postoji verovatnoća
da nikada nećete oboleti od nje.
da nikada nećete oboleti od nje.
11:14
But how much would you suffer
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Ali koliko biste patili
11:16
just from knowing that you have
a potentially deadly disease?
a potentially deadly disease?
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od samog saznanja da imate
potencijalno smrtonosnu bolest?
potencijalno smrtonosnu bolest?
11:19
And wouldn't you actually regret
that the disease was detected
that the disease was detected
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Zar ne biste zažalili
što vam je bolest uopšte i otkrivena?
što vam je bolest uopšte i otkrivena?
11:22
in the first place?
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11:25
Your second option
is to undergo early treatment
is to undergo early treatment
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Vaša druga opcija
je da prihvatite rano lečenje
je da prihvatite rano lečenje
11:29
with the hope for curing it.
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sa nadom da ćete je izlečiti.
11:31
But often, this would not come
without side effects.
without side effects.
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Ali često, ovo ne bi išlo
bez nekih nuspojava.
bez nekih nuspojava.
11:37
To be precise:
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Tačnije:
11:39
the bigger problem is not overdiagnosis,
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veći problem od hiperdijagnostike
11:42
it's overtreatment,
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je preterano lečenje,
11:43
because not every disease
has to be treated immediately
has to be treated immediately
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zato što ne zahteva svaka bolest
trenutno lečenje
trenutno lečenje
11:46
just because a treatment is available.
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samo zato što je lek dostupan.
11:51
The increasing adoption
of routine screening
of routine screening
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Usvajanje rutinskog skrininga
11:54
will raise the question:
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je otvorilo pitanje:
11:57
What do we call a disease
that can rationalize treatment,
that can rationalize treatment,
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kako nazivamo bolest
koja može opravdati lečenje,
koja može opravdati lečenje,
12:01
and what is just an abnormality
that should not be a source of concern?
that should not be a source of concern?
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a šta je samo anomalija
koja ne treba da nas brine?
koja ne treba da nas brine?
12:07
My hopes are that routine screening
using breath analysis
using breath analysis
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Ja se nadam da će rutinski skrining
koji koristi analizu daha
koji koristi analizu daha
12:12
can provide enough data and insight
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moći da obezbedi dovoljno podataka i uvida
12:15
so that at some point,
we'll be able to break this dilemma
we'll be able to break this dilemma
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da ćemo u određenom momentu
moći da rešimo ovu dilemu
moći da rešimo ovu dilemu
12:19
and predict with sufficient certainty
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i sa dovoljnom preciznošću predvidimo
12:22
whether and when to treat at early stage.
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da li i kada lečiti u ranoj fazi.
12:26
Our breath and the mixture of volatile
organic compounds that we exhale
organic compounds that we exhale
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Naš dah i mešavina isparljivih
organskih jedinjenja koje izdahnemo
organskih jedinjenja koje izdahnemo
12:31
hold tremendous amounts of information
on our physiological condition.
on our physiological condition.
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sadrže neverovatnu količinu informacija
o našem fiziološkom stanju.
o našem fiziološkom stanju.
12:37
With what we know today,
we have only scratched the surface.
we have only scratched the surface.
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Sa onim što znamo danas,
samo smo zagrebali površinu.
samo smo zagrebali površinu.
12:41
As we collect more and more data
and breath profiles across the population,
and breath profiles across the population,
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Skupljajući sve više podataka
i profila analize daha širom populacije,
i profila analize daha širom populacije,
12:46
including all varieties of gender,
age, origin and lifestyle,
age, origin and lifestyle,
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uključujući različite polove,
godine, poreklo i stil života,
godine, poreklo i stil života,
12:50
the power of breath analysis
should increase.
should increase.
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moć analize daha bi trebalo da se poveća.
12:54
And eventually, breath analysis
should provide us with a powerful tool
should provide us with a powerful tool
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U jednom momentu, analiza daha
bi trebalo da nam obezbedi moćan alat
bi trebalo da nam obezbedi moćan alat
12:59
not only to proactively detect
specific diseases
specific diseases
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ne samo da proaktivno
otkrijemo određene bolesti,
otkrijemo određene bolesti,
13:04
but to predict
and ultimately prevent them.
and ultimately prevent them.
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nego i da ih predvidimo
i na kraju sprečimo.
i na kraju sprečimo.
13:09
And this should be enough motivation
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Ovo bi trebalo da bude dovoljna motivacija
13:11
to embrace the opportunities
and challenges
and challenges
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da se prihvate šanse i izazovi
13:15
that breath analysis can provide,
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koje analiza daha može da pruži,
13:18
even for people that are not
part-time hypochondriacs like me.
part-time hypochondriacs like me.
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čak i kod ljudi koji nisu
povremeni hipohondri, kao ja.
povremeni hipohondri, kao ja.
13:22
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
13:23
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julian Burschka - TechnologistDriven by his curiosity, Julian Burschka is combining multiple technical disciplines with strong business acumen to drive innovation and enable new technological advancements.
Why you should listen
Julian Burschka has spent many years developing materials for efficient solar energy conversion. Notably he pioneered an elegant method to fabricate so-called perovskite solar cells -- seminal research that later was published in Nature and cited several thousand times since.
Born a scientist at heart, Burschka is constantly striving to expand his horizon and is thrilled by new technological discoveries that might fundamentally change our daily lives. More recently, his interest was sparked by ultra-sensitive gas sensors and the detection of volatile organic compounds for various applications.
In his current role as a senior project manager at Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, Burschka is leading a multinational R&D team that develops smart material solutions to enable next-generation displays. He holds a Master of Business Administration and a PhD in chemistry, both of which he obtained following multilingual studies in Germany, France and Switzerland.
Julian Burschka | Speaker | TED.com