ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
TED2007

Hans Rosling: New insights on poverty

Hans Rosling 以新的视角解读当今世界的贫困问题

Filmed:
3,769,031 views

Hans Rosing 教授用他的"超酷"的数据库软件展示世界各国摆脱贫困的历程;他带来的“美元街”展示了不同收入人群的居住条件;不要错过了他在结束前的惊人演出。
- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:25
I told you three things last year.
0
0
2000
去年我们讲了3个问题
00:27
I told you that the statistics统计 of the world世界
1
2000
3000
我们已经谈过了
00:30
have not been made制作 properly正确 available可得到.
2
5000
3000
世界的统计资料并不为人们所知
00:33
Because of that, we still have the old mindset心态
3
8000
2000
所以我们仍错误的
00:35
of developing发展 in industrialized工业化 countries国家, which哪一个 is wrong错误.
4
10000
3000
把世界划分为发达国家与发展中国家
00:39
And that animated动画 graphics图像 can make a difference区别.
5
14000
4000
但是新的统计数据动画技术将引领变革
00:44
Things are changing改变
6
19000
2000
变革已经开始
00:46
and today今天, on the United联合的 Nations国家 Statistic统计 Division Home Page,
7
21000
4000
今天,在联合国统计署的官方网站上
00:50
it says, by first of May可能, full充分 access访问 to the databases数据库.
8
25000
3000
通告说5月1日以后所有数据库向公众开放
00:55
(Applause掌声)
9
30000
3000
(掌声)
00:58
And if I could share分享 the image图片 with you on the screen屏幕.
10
33000
4000
我们一起看大屏幕
01:03
So three things have happened发生.
11
38000
1000
(过去1年中)发生了3件事
01:04
U.N. opened打开 their statistic统计 databases数据库,
12
39000
3000
联合国开放了他们的数据库
01:07
and we have a new version of the software软件
13
42000
4000
我们的软件推出了新版本
01:11
up working加工 as a beta公测 on the net,
14
46000
2000
其测试版可以在线使用
01:13
so you don't have to download下载 it any longer.
15
48000
2000
所以今后大家再也不用下载了
01:16
And let me repeat重复 what you saw last year.
16
51000
2000
首先我们回顾一下去年的内容
01:18
The bubbles泡泡 are the countries国家.
17
53000
1000
每个球代表一个国家
01:19
Here you have the fertility生育能力 rate -- the number of children孩子 per woman女人 --
18
54000
4000
X轴是生育率,每个妇女的育儿数
01:23
and there you have the length长度 of life in years年份.
19
58000
3000
Y轴是平均寿命年数
01:27
This is 1950 -- those were the industrialized工业化 countries国家,
20
62000
3000
当前数据是1950年,这些是发达国家
01:30
those were developing发展 countries国家.
21
65000
1000
这些是发展中国家
01:31
At that time there was a "we" and "them."
22
66000
2000
那时世界是由“我们和他们”构成的
01:33
There was a huge巨大 difference区别 in the world世界.
23
68000
2000
那时候各国差距很大
01:35
But then it changed, and it went on quite相当 well.
24
70000
4000
后来世界往好的方向上改变了
01:39
And this is what happens发生.
25
74000
1000
这就是变化的过程
01:41
You can see how China中国 is the red, big bubble泡沫.
26
76000
3000
那个大的红球代表中国
01:44
The blue蓝色 there is India印度.
27
79000
1000
而那个大的蓝球代表印度
01:45
And they go over all this -- I'm going to try to be
28
80000
3000
(今年我想
01:48
a little more serious严重 this year in showing展示 you
29
83000
2000
稍微严肃一些地向你们展示
01:50
how things really changed.
30
85000
2000
世界的发展过程)
01:53
And it's Africa非洲 that stands站立 out as the problem问题 down here, doesn't it?
31
88000
3000
而这些(小的深蓝色球)非洲国家 正是问题所在
01:56
Large families家庭 still, and the HIVHIV epidemic疫情
32
91000
3000
庞大的家庭,艾滋病流行
01:59
brought down the countries国家 like this.
33
94000
2000
导致平均寿命下降
02:01
This is more or less what we saw last year,
34
96000
3000
这基本上就是去年我们所讲的内容
02:04
and this is how it will go on into the future未来.
35
99000
2000
而这是对未来的预测
02:07
And I will talk on, is this possible可能?
36
102000
2000
我得说这些只是可能发生的
02:09
Because you see now, I presented呈现 statistics统计 that don't exist存在.
37
104000
3000
因为现在我们看到的 实际上是不存在的统计数据
02:13
Because this is where we are.
38
108000
2000
这是目前的实际情况
02:15
Will it be possible可能 that this will happen发生?
39
110000
3000
也许未来的发展会像这样
02:19
I cover my lifetime一生 here, you know?
40
114000
2000
(这段时间)包含了我的人生
02:21
I expect期望 to live生活 100 years年份.
41
116000
2000
我期望活到100岁
02:23
And this is where we are today今天.
42
118000
2000
这是今天的世界
02:25
Now could we look here instead代替 at the economic经济 situation情况 in the world世界?
43
120000
7000
我们看看世界的经济情况
02:33
And I would like to show显示 that against反对 child儿童 survival生存.
44
128000
5000
和对应的儿童健康状况
02:38
We'll swap交换 the axis.
45
133000
1000
我们翻转一下Y轴
02:40
Here you have child儿童 mortality死亡 -- that is, survival生存 --
46
135000
4000
现在Y轴是儿童死亡率
02:44
four kids孩子 dying垂死 there, 200 dying垂死 there.
47
139000
2000
这里是千分之四的死亡率 而那里是千分之两百的死亡率
02:47
And this is GDPGDP per capita人头 on this axis.
48
142000
2000
X轴是人均GDP
02:50
And this was 2007.
49
145000
3000
当前是2007年的数据
02:53
And if I go back in time, I've added添加 some historical历史的 statistics统计 --
50
148000
4000
如果我们回到过去,我们增加了一些历史数据
02:57
here we go, here we go, here we go -- not so much statistics统计 100 years年份 ago.
51
152000
6000
100年前没有多少数据统计
03:03
Some countries国家 still had statistics统计.
52
158000
2000
只有少数国家有数据可查
03:05
We are looking down in the archive档案,
53
160000
2000
我们参考了历史文献的记载
03:07
and when we are down into 1820,
54
162000
4000
现在我们看到的是1820年的数据
03:11
there is only Austria奥地利 and Sweden瑞典 that can produce生产 numbers数字.
55
166000
4000
那时只有奥地利和瑞典人识数
03:15
(Laughter笑声)
56
170000
3000
(笑声)
03:18
But they were down here. They had 1,000 dollars美元 per person per year.
57
173000
4000
但他们在下边,每人每年1000美元的收入
03:22
And they lost丢失 one-fifth五分之一 of their kids孩子 before their first birthday生日.
58
177000
3000
五分之一的孩子活不到1岁生日
03:26
So this is what happens发生 in the world世界, if we play the entire整个 world世界.
59
181000
3000
这就是那时的世界。再看看世界的发展
03:29
How they got slowly慢慢地 richer更丰富 and richer更丰富,
60
184000
3000
这些国家慢慢变得富有
03:32
and they add statistics统计.
61
187000
1000
另一些国家开始拥有统计数据
03:33
Isn't it beautiful美丽 when they get statistics统计?
62
188000
2000
(这些数据是不是很漂亮?
03:35
You see the importance重要性 of that?
63
190000
2000
大家发现统计的重要性了吧)
03:37
And here, children孩子 don't live生活 longer.
64
192000
2000
但是儿童健康并没有得到很大的改善
03:39
The last century世纪, 1870, was bad for the kids孩子 in Europe欧洲,
65
194000
4000
在19世纪70年代左右,欧洲的孩子们很不幸
03:43
because most of this statistics统计 is Europe欧洲.
66
198000
2000
因为这些数据都来自欧洲国家
03:45
It was only by the turn of the century世纪
67
200000
3000
直到19世纪与20世纪交替的时候
03:48
that more than 90 percent百分 of the children孩子 survived幸存 their first year.
68
203000
3000
90%以上的孩子能庆祝1岁生日
03:51
This is India印度 coming未来 up, with the first data数据 from India印度.
69
206000
3000
现在出现的是印度(蓝球)
03:54
And this is the United联合的 States状态 moving移动 away here, earning盈利 more money.
70
209000
5000
而这个(黄球)是美国,人们的钱包越来越鼓
03:59
And we will soon不久 see China中国 coming未来 up in the very far end结束 corner here.
71
214000
5000
中国(大的红球)出现在远处的角落
04:04
And it moves移动 up with Mao Tse-Tung谢彤 getting得到 health健康,
72
219000
2000
毛泽东时代,中国儿童健康不断改善
04:06
not getting得到 so rich丰富.
73
221000
1000
但是收入的增加很缓慢
04:07
There he died死亡, then Deng Xiaoping小平 brings带来 money.
74
222000
3000
毛泽东去世后,邓小平带来了金钱
04:10
It moves移动 this way over here.
75
225000
1000
中国朝着高收入的方向发展
04:12
And the bubbles泡泡 keep moving移动 up there,
76
227000
2000
其他国家也都在发展
04:14
and this is what the world世界 looks容貌 like today今天.
77
229000
2000
这就是今天我们的世界
04:16
(Applause掌声)
78
231000
6000
(掌声)
04:22
Let us have a look at the United联合的 States状态.
79
237000
3000
现在我们看看美国
04:25
We have a function功能 here -- I can tell the world世界, "Stay where you are."
80
240000
3000
(新软件)多了一个选项,可以让世界(其他国家)静止
04:29
And I take the United联合的 States状态 -- we still want to see the background背景 --
81
244000
3000
我们把美国选定,把背景调亮
04:32
I put them up like this, and now we go backwards向后.
82
247000
3000
这样可以看到其他国家
04:35
And we can see that the United联合的 States状态
83
250000
3000
接着我们回到过去
04:38
goes to the right of the mainstream主流.
84
253000
3000
美国始终在主流的右侧
04:41
They are on the money side all the time.
85
256000
2000
他们总和钱站在同一边
04:44
And down in 1915, the United联合的 States状态 was a neighbor邻居 of India印度 --
86
259000
5000
回到1915年,当时的美国
04:50
present当下, contemporary现代的 India印度.
87
265000
2000
和今天的印度差不多
04:52
And that means手段 United联合的 States状态 was richer更丰富,
88
267000
2000
当时的美国(比今天的印度)更富有
04:54
but lost丢失 more kids孩子 than India印度 is doing today今天, proportionally按比例.
89
269000
4000
儿童死亡率却更高
04:59
And look here -- compare比较 to the Philippines菲律宾 of today今天.
90
274000
3000
再看这里,菲律宾(与美国)相比
05:02
The Philippines菲律宾 of today今天 has almost几乎 the same相同 economy经济
91
277000
3000
菲律宾今天的经济水平
05:06
as the United联合的 States状态 during the First World世界 War战争.
92
281000
2000
与一战时期的美国差不多
05:08
But we have to bring带来 United联合的 States状态 forward前锋 quite相当 a while
93
283000
4000
但美国需要(从一战后)发展多少年
05:12
to find the same相同 health健康 of the United联合的 States状态
94
287000
3000
才能达到菲律宾今天的儿童健康水平呢
05:15
as we have in the Philippines菲律宾.
95
290000
1000
才能达到菲律宾今天的儿童健康水平呢
05:17
About 1957 here, the health健康 of the United联合的 States状态
96
292000
3000
直到1957年,美国的儿童健康水平
05:20
is the same相同 as the Philippines菲律宾.
97
295000
2000
才和今天的菲律宾一样
05:22
And this is the drama戏剧 of this world世界 which哪一个 many许多 call globalized全球化,
98
297000
3000
这就是世界发展的剧本,很多人称之为“全球化”
05:25
is that Asia亚洲, Arabic阿拉伯 countries国家, Latin拉丁 America美国,
99
300000
3000
也就是说在亚洲,阿拉伯国家和拉丁美洲
05:28
are much more ahead in being存在 healthy健康, educated博学,
100
303000
5000
其健康和教育水平的发展速度
05:33
having human人的 resources资源 than they are economically经济.
101
308000
3000
远超过了经济发展的速度
05:36
There's a discrepancy差异 in what's happening事件 today今天
102
311000
2000
而在今天的新兴国家中
05:38
in the emerging新兴 economies经济.
103
313000
2000
发展的差异
05:40
There now, social社会 benefits好处, social社会 progress进展,
104
315000
4000
更多的体现在社会的进步
05:44
are going ahead of economical经济 progress进展.
105
319000
3000
而不是经济的发展
05:47
And 1957 -- the United联合的 States状态 had the same相同 economy经济 as Chile智利 has today今天.
106
322000
6000
1957年美国的经济水平与今天的智利相近
05:54
And how long do we have to bring带来 United联合的 States状态
107
329000
3000
但美国需要发展多少年
05:57
to get the same相同 health健康 as Chile智利 has today今天?
108
332000
2000
才能达到智利今天的儿童健康水平呢
06:00
I think we have to go, there -- we have 2001, or 2002 --
109
335000
5000
(我们要等到)2002年
06:05
the United联合的 States状态 has the same相同 health健康 as Chile智利.
110
340000
2000
美国的儿童健康水平才和今天的智利一样
06:07
Chile's智利 catching up!
111
342000
1000
智利已经赶上来了!
06:09
Within some years年份 Chile智利 may可能 have better child儿童 survival生存
112
344000
2000
几年后智利的儿童健康
06:11
than the United联合的 States状态.
113
346000
2000
可能会超过美国
06:13
This is really a change更改, that you have this lag落后
114
348000
3000
这真是很大的变化,在不同的国家
06:16
of more or less 30, 40 years'年份' difference区别 on the health健康.
115
351000
5000
经济发展和健康水平的差距有30,40年
06:21
And behind背后 the health健康 is the educational教育性 level水平.
116
356000
2000
而在这个背后,有教育的差距
06:23
And there's a lot of infrastructure基础设施 things,
117
358000
2000
还有基础设施的差距
06:25
and general一般 human人的 resources资源 are there.
118
360000
3000
以及人力资源的差距等等
06:28
Now we can take away this --
119
363000
3000
我们现在把其他国家去掉
06:31
and I would like to show显示 you the rate of speed速度,
120
366000
4000
再来看看不同的国家
06:35
the rate of change更改, how fast快速 they have gone走了.
121
370000
3000
其发展速度有怎样的差异
06:38
And we go back to 1920, and I want to look at Japan日本.
122
373000
7000
回到1920年,先选定日本
06:46
And I want to look at Sweden瑞典 and the United联合的 States状态.
123
381000
3000
选定瑞典和美国
06:49
And I'm going to stage阶段 a race种族 here
124
384000
2000
我们将举办一场车赛
06:51
between之间 this sort分类 of yellowish淡黄 Ford here
125
386000
3000
选手分别是黄色的福特车(美国)
06:54
and the red Toyota丰田 down there,
126
389000
2000
红色的丰田车(日本)
06:56
and the brownish呈褐色的 Volvo沃尔沃.
127
391000
2000
和棕色的沃尔沃车(瑞典)
06:58
(Laughter笑声)
128
393000
2000
(笑声)
07:00
And here we go. Here we go.
129
395000
2000
比赛开始
07:02
The Toyota丰田 has a very bad start开始 down here, you can see,
130
397000
3000
丰田车启动时的表现很差
07:05
and the United联合的 States状态 Ford is going off-road越野 there.
131
400000
3000
福特车驶出了赛道
07:08
And the Volvo沃尔沃 is doing quite相当 fine.
132
403000
1000
沃尔沃表现的很不错
07:09
This is the war战争. The Toyota丰田 got off track跟踪, and now
133
404000
2000
二战时,丰田车跑到了赛道外
07:11
the Toyota丰田 is coming未来 on the healthier健康 side of Sweden瑞典 --
134
406000
3000
但它(很快调整好)并在健康水平高于瑞典的一侧运行
07:14
can you see that?
135
409000
1000
但它(很快调整好)并在健康水平高于瑞典的一侧运行
07:15
And they are taking服用 over Sweden瑞典,
136
410000
1000
现在它的健康水平
07:16
and they are now healthier健康 than Sweden瑞典.
137
411000
2000
已经超过了瑞典
07:18
That's the part部分 where I sold出售 the Volvo沃尔沃 and bought the Toyota丰田.
138
413000
2000
就在那一年 我把自己的沃尔沃换成了丰田车
07:20
(Laughter笑声)
139
415000
3000
(笑声)
07:23
And now we can see that the rate of change更改 was enormous巨大 in Japan日本.
140
418000
4000
我们看到 日本的变化速度是惊人的
07:27
They really caught抓住 up.
141
422000
2000
他们确实赶超了上来
07:29
And this changes变化 gradually逐渐.
142
424000
2000
但是这种变化是逐步发生的
07:31
We have to look over generations to understand理解 it.
143
426000
3000
要经历好几代人的时间才能理解这种变化
07:34
And let me show显示 you my own拥有 sort分类 of family家庭 history历史 --
144
429000
5000
下面把我的家族史展示给大家看一下
07:39
we made制作 these graphs here.
145
434000
2000
(这张图代表今天的世界)
07:41
And this is the same相同 thing, money down there, and health健康, you know?
146
436000
4000
Y轴代表健康水平,X轴是收入
07:45
And this is my family家庭.
147
440000
2000
(这根红线)代表了我的家族
07:48
This is Sweden瑞典, 1830, when my great-great-grandma伟大伟大的祖母 was born天生.
148
443000
4000
这里是1830年的瑞典 ,我的曾曾祖母出生于这一年
07:53
Sweden瑞典 was like Sierra内华达 Leone塞拉利昂 today今天.
149
448000
2000
1830年的瑞典和今天的塞拉利昂一样
07:56
And this is when great-grandma伟大的奶奶 was born天生, 1863.
150
451000
3000
我的曾祖母生于1863年
08:00
And Sweden瑞典 was like Mozambique莫桑比克.
151
455000
2000
1863年的瑞典和今天的莫桑比克一样
08:02
And this is when my grandma奶奶 was born天生, 1891.
152
457000
2000
我的祖母生于1891年
08:04
She took care关心 of me as a child儿童,
153
459000
2000
是她看着我长大的
08:06
so I'm not talking about statistic统计 now --
154
461000
2000
现在我给大家讲述的不是统计数据
08:08
now it's oral口服 history历史 in my family家庭.
155
463000
2000
而是我本人的家族历史
08:11
That's when I believe statistics统计,
156
466000
1000
我之所以相信这些统计数据
08:12
when it's grandma-verified奶奶验证 statistics统计.
157
467000
3000
是因为我的祖母证实了这些数据的真实性
08:15
(Laughter笑声)
158
470000
3000
(笑声)
08:18
I think it's the best最好 way of verifying验证 historical历史的 statistics统计.
159
473000
3000
我认为祖母最适合于验证数据真实性
08:21
Sweden瑞典 was like Ghana加纳.
160
476000
1000
1891年的瑞典和今天的嘎纳一样
08:22
It's interesting有趣 to see the enormous巨大 diversity多样
161
477000
3000
可见在撒哈拉以南非洲地区
08:25
within sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲.
162
480000
2000
国家间的差异非常巨大
08:28
I told you last year, I'll tell you again,
163
483000
2000
(我们再来回顾一下去年的内容)
08:30
my mother母亲 was born天生 in Egypt埃及, and I -- who am I?
164
485000
3000
我母亲出生于(今天的)埃及
08:33
I'm the Mexican墨西哥人 in the family家庭.
165
488000
1000
我是家里的墨西哥人
08:35
And my daughter女儿, she was born天生 in Chile智利,
166
490000
2000
我女儿出生于(今天的)智利
08:37
and the grand-daughter孙女 was born天生 in Singapore新加坡,
167
492000
2000
我的孙女则出生在(今天的)新加坡
08:39
now the healthiest健康 country国家 on this Earth地球.
168
494000
2000
新加坡是目前世界上最健康的国家
08:41
It bypassed绕过 Sweden瑞典 about two to three years年份 ago,
169
496000
2000
其儿童健康水平在2,3年前
08:43
with better child儿童 survival生存.
170
498000
2000
超过了瑞典
08:45
But they're very small, you know?
171
500000
1000
但新加坡是个小地方
08:46
They're so close to the hospital醫院 we can never
172
501000
2000
人们住的地方和医院很近
08:48
beat击败 them out in these forests森林.
173
503000
1000
把他们搬到瑞典的森林地区再比比看
08:49
(Laughter笑声)
174
504000
3000
(笑声)
08:52
But homage尊敬 to Singapore新加坡.
175
507000
1000
但还是应该向新加坡致敬
08:53
Singapore新加坡 is the best最好 one.
176
508000
2000
他们是最健康的国家之一
08:55
Now this looks容貌 also like a very good story故事.
177
510000
4000
以上这些看起来很不错
08:59
But it's not really that easy简单, that it's all a good story故事.
178
514000
4000
但这些好的现象不能代表全部
09:03
Because I have to show显示 you one of the other facilities设备.
179
518000
3000
现在我们调整一下设置
09:06
We can also make the color颜色 here represent代表 the variable变量 --
180
521000
5000
把球的颜色重新设置一下,让颜色表示
09:11
and what am I choosing选择 here?
181
526000
1000
把球的颜色重新设置一下,让颜色表示
09:12
Carbon-dioxide二氧化碳 emission排放, metric ton per capita人头.
182
527000
4000
CO2人均排放量(公吨)
09:17
This is 1962, and United联合的 States状态 was emitting发光 16 tons per person.
183
532000
5000
1962年,美国的人均CO2排放量为16吨
09:22
And China中国 was emitting发光 0.6,
184
537000
2000
当时的中国人均排放0.6吨
09:24
and India印度 was emitting发光 0.32 tons per capita人头.
185
539000
4000
印度为0.3吨
09:28
And what happens发生 when we moved移动 on?
186
543000
3000
后来呢
09:31
Well, you see the nice不错 story故事 of getting得到 richer更丰富
187
546000
2000
各国的经济和健康均得到了发展
09:33
and getting得到 healthier健康 --
188
548000
1000
各国的经济和健康均得到了发展
09:34
everyone大家 did it at the cost成本 of emission排放 of carbon dioxide二氧化碳.
189
549000
5000
同时所有国家的人均CO2排放量都增加了
09:39
There is no one who has doneDONE it so far.
190
554000
3000
没有哪个国家不是如此
09:42
And we don't have all the updated更新 data数据
191
557000
3000
手头上我们没有更近的数据
09:45
any longer, because this is really hot data数据 today今天.
192
560000
3000
因为CO2的数据现在很炙手可热
09:48
And there we are, 2001.
193
563000
2000
最新的数据只有2001年的
09:51
And in the discussion讨论 I attended出席 with global全球 leaders领导者, you know,
194
566000
4000
上次我参加了一个世界领导人的会议
09:55
many许多 say now the problem问题 is that the emerging新兴 economies经济,
195
570000
4000
很多人在埋怨新兴国家
09:59
they are getting得到 out too much carbon dioxide二氧化碳.
196
574000
3000
说他们排放了太多CO2
10:02
The Minister部长 of the Environment环境 of India印度 said,
197
577000
2000
印度环境部的部长说
10:04
"Well, you were the one who caused造成 the problem问题."
198
579000
3000
“问题出在你们那里
10:07
The OECD经合组织 countries国家 -- the high-income高收入 countries国家 --
199
582000
3000
经合组织成员国,高收入国家
10:10
they were the ones那些 who caused造成 the climate气候 change更改.
200
585000
2000
是你们导致了气候的改变
10:13
"But we forgive原谅 you, because you didn't know it.
201
588000
2000
但我们原谅你们,因为你们以前并不知情
10:15
But from now on, we count计数 per capita人头.
202
590000
3000
从现在起我们算人均CO2排放量
10:18
From now on we count计数 per capita人头.
203
593000
2000
从现在起我们算人均CO2排放量
10:20
And everyone大家 is responsible主管 for the per capita人头 emission排放."
204
595000
3000
每个国家都应该对自己的人均CO2排放量负责”
10:23
This really shows节目 you, we have not seen看到 good economic经济
205
598000
3000
这里我们清楚地看到,每个国家的
10:26
and health健康 progress进展 anywhere随地 in the world世界
206
601000
2000
经济发展和健康的改善
10:28
without destroying销毁 the climate气候.
207
603000
4000
都是以破坏环境为代价的
10:33
And this is really what has to be changed.
208
608000
2000
这亟需改变
10:36
I've been criticized批评 for showing展示 you a too positive image图片 of the world世界,
209
611000
3000
我给大家展示过于乐观的发展前景,已经招来不少批评
10:39
but I don't think it's like this.
210
614000
2000
尽管我不太认同
10:41
The world世界 is quite相当 a messy place地点.
211
616000
2000
这是一个乱糟糟的世界
10:43
This we can call Dollar美元 Street.
212
618000
2000
现在大家所看到的是“美元街”
10:45
Everyone大家 lives生活 on this street here.
213
620000
2000
所有人都住在这条街上
10:47
What they earn here -- what number they live生活 on --
214
622000
3000
上面的数字
10:50
is how much they earn per day.
215
625000
1000
代表居民每天的收入
10:51
This family家庭 earns收入 about one dollar美元 per day.
216
626000
3000
这家人每天收入1美元
10:55
We drive驾驶 up the street here,
217
630000
1000
我们驾车往前走
10:56
we find a family家庭 here which哪一个 earns收入 about two to three dollars美元 a day.
218
631000
4000
这家人每天收入2-3美元
11:00
And we drive驾驶 away here -- we find the first garden花园 in the street,
219
635000
3000
继续往前走,看到街上第一个带花园的房子
11:03
and they earn 10 to 50 dollars美元 a day.
220
638000
2000
他们家每天收入10-50美元
11:05
And how do they live生活?
221
640000
2000
房子里面是什么样子的呢
11:07
If we look at the bed here, we can see
222
642000
3000
先看看卧室
11:10
that they sleep睡觉 on a rug地毯 on the floor地板.
223
645000
3000
(最穷的一家)睡在地板上
11:13
This is what poverty贫穷 line线 is --
224
648000
2000
这就是贫困线以下的生活
11:15
80 percent百分 of the family家庭 income收入 is just to cover the energy能源 needs需求,
225
650000
3000
80%的收入用于基本生活所需的能量和食物
11:18
the food餐饮 for the day.
226
653000
2000
80%的收入用于基本生活所需的能量和食物
11:20
This is two to five dollars美元. You have a bed.
227
655000
3000
这家人每天收入2-5美元,有床可以睡了
11:23
And here it's a much nicer更好 bedroom卧室, you can see.
228
658000
2000
(带花园的这一家)卧室要好得多
11:26
I lectured演讲 on this for Ikea宜家, and they wanted to see
229
661000
2000
我给"宜家"雇员们作报告的时候
11:28
the sofa沙发 immediately立即 here.
230
663000
2000
他们要求看看沙发
11:30
(Laughter笑声)
231
665000
2000
(笑声)
11:32
And this is the sofa沙发, how it will emerge出现 from there.
232
667000
4000
这就是(贫困家里的)沙发
11:36
And the interesting有趣 thing, when you go around here in the photo照片 panorama全景,
233
671000
3000
这一家有像样的沙发,但我们环顾周围
11:39
you see the family家庭 still sitting坐在 on the floor地板 there.
234
674000
2000
会看到他们仍然坐在地板上
11:41
Although虽然 there is a sofa沙发,
235
676000
2000
尽管他们有沙发
11:43
if you watch in the kitchen厨房, you can see that
236
678000
2000
我们再看看厨房
11:45
the great difference区别 for women妇女 does not come between之间 one to 10 dollars美元.
237
680000
5000
日收入1美元和10美元的家庭,厨房条件差不多
11:50
It comes beyond here, when you really can get
238
685000
2000
在日收入超过10美元的家里
11:52
good working加工 conditions条件 in the family家庭.
239
687000
3000
厨房的条件才大为改善
11:55
And if you really want to see the difference区别,
240
690000
2000
真正的差别其实在厕所
11:57
you look at the toilet厕所 over here.
241
692000
2000
大家看这里
11:59
This can change更改. This can change更改.
242
694000
2000
这些是可以改变的
12:01
These are all pictures图片 and images图片 from Africa非洲,
243
696000
3000
这些图片来自非洲
12:04
and it can become成为 much better.
244
699000
2000
但是(非洲)可以变得更好
12:07
We can get out of poverty贫穷.
245
702000
2000
我们可以摆脱贫困
12:09
My own拥有 research研究 has not been in IT or anything like this.
246
704000
3000
我以前的研究并不是现在的IT领域
12:12
I spent花费 20 years年份 in interviews面试 with African非洲人 farmers农民
247
707000
3000
我在非洲工作了20年,终日奔走于饥饿的非洲农民中间
12:15
who were on the verge边缘 of famine饥荒.
248
710000
3000
我在非洲工作了20年,终日奔走于饥饿的非洲农民中间
12:18
And this is the result结果 of the farmers-needs农民-需求 research研究.
249
713000
2000
这张照片记录了对“农民需求”的一项研究
12:20
The nice不错 thing here is that you can't see
250
715000
2000
有趣的是,你在照片上分辨不出
12:22
who are the researchers研究人员 in this picture图片.
251
717000
2000
谁是研究人员
12:24
That's when research研究 functions功能 in poor较差的 societies社会 --
252
719000
3000
在贫困地区开展研究的时候
12:27
you must必须 really live生活 with the people.
253
722000
2000
你必须和当地人生活在一起
12:31
When you're in poverty贫穷, everything is about survival生存.
254
726000
4000
如果你在贫困线以下,生存就是你的全部
12:35
It's about having food餐饮.
255
730000
2000
必须获得食物
12:37
And these two young年轻 farmers农民, they are girls女孩 now --
256
732000
2000
照片里的2个年轻的农民,她们是女孩
12:39
because the parents父母 are dead from HIVHIV and AIDS艾滋病 --
257
734000
4000
因为父母都死于艾滋病
12:43
they discuss讨论 with a trained熟练 agronomist农学家.
258
738000
2000
她们正和一个农学家交谈
12:45
This is one of the best最好 agronomists农学家 in Malawi马拉维, JunatambeJunatambe KumbiraKumbira,
259
740000
4000
他是马拉维最好的农学家之一,(名字是)Jonathan Mkambira
12:49
and he's discussing讨论 what sort分类 of cassava木薯 they will plant --
260
744000
2000
他们正在讨论种植哪一种cassava
12:51
the best最好 converter变流器 of sunshine阳光 to food餐饮 that man has found发现.
261
746000
4000
Cassava是已知的转化太阳能效率最高的植物
12:55
And they are very, very eagerly眼巴巴 interested有兴趣 to get advice忠告,
262
750000
3000
农民非常渴望得到建议
12:58
and that's to survive生存 in poverty贫穷.
263
753000
3000
这就是贫困线以下的生活
13:01
That's one context上下文.
264
756000
1000
另一方面
13:02
Getting入门 out of poverty贫穷.
265
757000
2000
(如何)摆脱贫困
13:04
The women妇女 told us one thing. "Get us technology技术.
266
759000
3000
照片中的妇女告诉我们:“我们需要技术支持
13:07
We hate讨厌 this mortar砂浆, to stand hours小时 and hours小时.
267
762000
3000
我们不想用人工磨,连续几个小时站着
13:10
Get us a mill so that we can mill our flour面粉,
268
765000
3000
给我们电动磨来磨面粉吧
13:13
then we will be able能够 to pay工资 for the rest休息 ourselves我们自己."
269
768000
3000
我们可以用卖面粉的钱
去买其它东西”
13:16
Technology技术 will bring带来 you out of poverty贫穷,
270
771000
3000
技术支持可以帮助人们脱贫
13:19
but there's a need for a market市场 to get away from poverty贫穷.
271
774000
4000
而市场对于人们脱贫也很重要
13:23
And this woman女人 is very happy快乐 now, bringing使 her products制品 to the market市场.
272
778000
3000
照片里的妇女很开心,她正把农产品运到市场上去卖
13:26
But she's very thankful感谢 for the public上市 investment投资 in schooling教育
273
781000
2000
她很感谢政府的教育投资
13:28
so she can count计数, and won't惯于 be cheated被骗 when she reaches到达 the market市场.
274
783000
3000
她学会了算术 这样在市场里不会被骗
13:31
She wants her kid孩子 to be healthy健康, so she can go to the market市场
275
786000
3000
她也希望孩子健康 这样她可以安心去市场
13:34
and doesn't have to stay home.
276
789000
2000
而不是在家里照顾小孩
13:36
And she wants the infrastructure基础设施 -- it is nice不错 with a paved铺砌 road.
277
791000
3000
她还希望有基础设施,有一条铺好的道路很重要
13:39
It's also good with credit信用.
278
794000
2000
另外小额贷款也很有用
13:41
Micro-credits小额贷款 gave her the bicycle自行车, you know.
279
796000
3000
小额贷款帮她买了自行车
13:44
And information信息 will tell her when to go to market市场 with which哪一个 product产品.
280
799000
3000
她还需要讯息,何时带何种农产品去市场
13:47
You can do this.
281
802000
2000
而这些都是我们能实现的
13:49
I find my experience经验 from 20 years年份 of Africa非洲 is that
282
804000
3000
非洲20年的经历让我明白
13:52
the seemingly似乎 impossible不可能 is possible可能.
283
807000
3000
看上去不可能的事情 其实是可能的
13:55
Africa非洲 has not doneDONE bad.
284
810000
2000
非洲的表现一点也不差
13:57
In 50 years年份 they've他们已经 gone走了 from a pre-Medieval预中世纪 situation情况
285
812000
3000
50年时间里,非洲从中世纪之前的水平
14:00
to a very decent正经 100-year-ago-一年前 Europe欧洲,
286
815000
3000
发展为100年前的欧洲
14:03
with a functioning功能 nation国家 and state.
287
818000
3000
并建立起国家系统
14:06
I would say that sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲 has doneDONE best最好 in the world世界
288
821000
3000
我想说撒哈拉以南非洲地区在过去的50年中,是发展速度最快的地区
14:09
during the last 50 years年份.
289
824000
1000
我想说撒哈拉以南非洲地区在过去的50年中,是发展速度最快的地区
14:10
Because we don't consider考虑 where they came来了 from.
290
825000
2000
由于我们没有考虑非洲的出身
14:12
It's this stupid concept概念 of developing发展 countries国家
291
827000
3000
而且错误的使用 “发展中国家”的理念
14:15
that puts看跌期权 us, Argentina阿根廷 and Mozambique莫桑比克 together一起 50 years年份 ago,
292
830000
3000
50年前把阿根廷和莫桑比克归类在一起
14:18
and says that Mozambique莫桑比克 did worse更差.
293
833000
2000
然后得出结论说 莫桑比克的发展(比阿根廷)差多了
14:21
We have to know a little more about the world世界.
294
836000
2000
我们应该更深入了解这个世界
14:23
I have a neighbor邻居 who knows知道 200 types类型 of wine红酒.
295
838000
3000
我的邻居了解200种葡萄酒
14:26
He knows知道 everything.
296
841000
1000
他对这些酒了如指掌
14:27
He knows知道 the name名称 of the grape葡萄, the temperature温度 and everything.
297
842000
2000
他知道葡萄的名字,酿酒的温度
14:29
I only know two types类型 of wine红酒 -- red and white白色.
298
844000
3000
我就知道2种葡萄酒,红的和白的
14:32
(Laughter笑声)
299
847000
2000
(笑声)
14:34
But my neighbor邻居 only knows知道 two types类型 of countries国家 --
300
849000
2000
但是我邻居就知道2种国家
14:36
industrialized工业化 and developing发展.
301
851000
2000
发达国家和发展中国家
14:38
And I know 200, I know about the small data数据.
302
853000
3000
我熟悉200个国家,以及他们的历年数据
14:41
But you can do that.
303
856000
1000
这个你也能做到
14:42
(Applause掌声)
304
857000
5000
(掌声)
14:47
But I have to get serious严重. And how do you get serious严重?
305
862000
2000
后面我要严肃一些,怎么严肃法呢?
14:49
You make a PowerPoint幻灯片, you know?
306
864000
2000
我们需要Power Point
14:51
(Laughter笑声)
307
866000
5000
(笑声)
14:56
Homage尊敬 to the Office办公室 package, no?
308
871000
2000
向微软"Office"致敬!
15:00
What is this, what is this, what am I telling告诉?
309
875000
2000
下面我想讲一下
15:02
I'm telling告诉 you that there are many许多 dimensions尺寸 of development发展.
310
877000
3000
发展的过程是多维的
15:05
Everyone大家 wants your pet宠物 thing.
311
880000
2000
每个人都有自己的偏好
15:07
If you are in the corporate企业 sector扇形, you love micro-credit小额信贷.
312
882000
3000
如果你为企业部门工作,你会偏爱小额贷款
15:10
If you are fighting战斗 in a non-governmental民间 organization组织,
313
885000
2000
如果你在非政府组织工作
15:12
you love equity公平 between之间 gender性别.
314
887000
3000
你更喜欢讨论男女平等
15:15
Or if you are a teacher老师, you'll你会 love UNESCO联合国教科文组织, and so on.
315
890000
2000
如果你是教师,你会首推联合国教科文组织,等等
15:17
On the global全球 level水平, we have to have more than our own拥有 thing.
316
892000
2000
在全球发展的层面,我们的需求其实大同小异
15:19
We need everything.
317
894000
2000
这种需求涉及所有领域
15:21
All these things are important重要 for development发展,
318
896000
2000
因为它们都是发展的前提
15:23
especially特别 when you just get out of poverty贫穷
319
898000
2000
尤其是对于 希望脱贫致富的人们
15:25
and you should go towards welfare福利.
320
900000
3000
尤其是对于 希望脱贫致富的人们
15:28
Now, what we need to think about
321
903000
2000
我们要仔细考虑一下
15:30
is, what is a goal目标 for development发展,
322
905000
3000
哪些是发展的目标
15:33
and what are the means手段 for development发展?
323
908000
1000
哪些是发展的途径
15:34
Let me first grade年级 what are the most important重要 means手段.
324
909000
3000
先看看最重要的途径
15:38
Economic经济 growth发展 to me, as a public-health公共卫生 professor教授,
325
913000
2000
经济的发展, 对于公共卫生学教授来说这是一切发展的根本
15:40
is the most important重要 thing for development发展
326
915000
4000
经济的发展, 对于公共卫生学教授来说这是一切发展的根本
15:44
because it explains说明 80 percent百分 of survival生存.
327
919000
2000
因为经济是生存的基础
15:47
Governance治理. To have a government政府 which哪一个 functions功能 --
328
922000
3000
其次是政府职能,依托一个有效的政府
15:50
that's what brought California加州 out of the misery苦难 of 1850.
329
925000
4000
加利福尼亚成功的度过了 1850年的艰难时期
15:54
It was the government政府 that made制作 law function功能 finally最后.
330
929000
3000
而且政府职能是 有效司法体系的基础
15:58
Education教育, human人的 resources资源 are important重要.
331
933000
2000
再然后是教育,人力资源非常重要
16:00
Health健康 is also important重要, but not that much as a mean.
332
935000
4000
健康也很重要 但不是发展必需的方法
16:04
Environment环境 is important重要.
333
939000
2000
环境也比较重要
16:06
Human人的 rights权利 is also important重要, but it just gets得到 one cross交叉.
334
941000
2000
还有人权,但作为发展的方法,其分量不重
16:08
Now what about goals目标? Where are we going toward?
335
943000
3000
再看发展的目标,我们需要往什么方向发展
16:11
We are not interested有兴趣 in money.
336
946000
2000
肯定不是金钱
16:13
Money is not a goal目标.
337
948000
1000
经济发展是最好的发展途径 但不是发展的目标
16:14
It's the best最好 mean, but I give it zero as a goal目标.
338
949000
3000
经济发展是最好的发展途径 但不是发展的目标
16:18
Governance治理, well it's fun开玩笑 to vote投票 in a little thing,
339
953000
3000
也许有政府职能,能参加选举固然不错
16:21
but it's not a goal目标.
340
956000
2000
但这不足以成为发展的目标
16:23
And going to school学校, that's not a goal目标, it's a mean.
341
958000
4000
接受教育也不是目标,而是发展的途径
16:27
Health健康 I give two points. I mean it's nice不错 to be healthy健康
342
962000
2000
健康得2分,因为健康的身体很重要
16:29
-- at my age年龄 especially特别 -- you can stand here, you're healthy健康.
343
964000
2000
尤其在我这个年龄还可以站在讲台上
16:31
And that's good, it gets得到 two plusses加分.
344
966000
2000
所以健康得2分
16:33
Environment环境 is very, very crucial关键.
345
968000
2000
环境也非常重要
16:35
There's nothing for the grandkidgrandkid if you don't save保存 up.
346
970000
2000
如果现在不保护环境 我们的子孙将一无所有
16:37
But where are the important重要 goals目标?
347
972000
2000
那么什么是最重要的发展目标呢
16:39
Of course课程, it's human人的 rights权利.
348
974000
2000
当然是人权了
16:41
Human人的 rights权利 is the goal目标,
349
976000
2000
人权是发展的核心目标
16:43
but it's not that strong强大 of a mean for achieving实现 development发展.
350
978000
3000
尽管这不是发展的必需途径
16:47
And culture文化. Culture文化 is the most important重要 thing, I would say,
351
982000
4000
还有文化,我想把文化放在最重要的位置
16:51
because that's what brings带来 joy喜悦 to life.
352
986000
2000
因为文化给我们的生活带来欢乐
16:53
That's the value of living活的.
353
988000
2000
给生活赋予了意义
16:55
So the seemingly似乎 impossible不可能 is possible可能.
354
990000
3000
看上去不可能的事情 是可能实现的
16:58
Even African非洲人 countries国家 can achieve实现 this.
355
993000
2000
即使是非洲也能做到
17:01
And I've shown显示 you the shot射击 where the seemingly似乎 impossible不可能 is possible可能.
356
996000
6000
那些图表已经证明这一点,看上去不可能的事情是可能实现的
17:07
And remember记得, please remember记得 my main主要 message信息,
357
1002000
4000
这就是今天我的演讲最重要的内容
17:11
which哪一个 is this: the seemingly似乎 impossible不可能 is possible可能.
358
1006000
3000
看上去不可能的事情 是可能实现的
17:14
We can have a good world世界.
359
1009000
2000
明天的世界会更美好
17:16
I showed显示 you the shots镜头, I proved证实 it in the PowerPoint幻灯片,
360
1011000
3000
在给你们展示了图表,还有幻灯片之后
17:19
and I think I will convince说服 you also by culture文化.
361
1014000
6000
我要用最后的内容来说服你们,文化
17:25
(Laughter笑声)
362
1020000
4000
(笑声)
17:29
(Applause掌声)
363
1024000
1000
(掌声)
17:30
Bring带来 me my sword!
364
1025000
2000
拿剑来!
17:36
Sword swallowing吞咽 is from ancient India印度.
365
1031000
5000
吞剑表演
17:41
It's a cultural文化 expression表达 that for thousands数千 of years年份
366
1036000
5000
古印度传承了上千年的传统表演
17:46
has inspired启发 human人的 beings众生 to think beyond the obvious明显.
367
1041000
6000
这项表演一直激励着人们 去探索视野之外的世界
17:52
(Laughter笑声)
368
1047000
2000
(笑声)
17:54
And I will now prove证明 to you that the seemingly似乎 impossible不可能 is possible可能
369
1049000
5000
今天我也要证明给你们看,看上去不可能的事情是可能实现的
17:59
by taking服用 this piece of steel -- solid固体 steel --
370
1054000
3000
我将用这把铁剑,1850年的瑞典军用刺刀
18:03
this is the army军队 bayonet刺刀 from the Swedish瑞典 Army军队, 1850,
371
1058000
3000
我将用这把铁剑,1850年的瑞典军用刺刀
18:06
in the last year we had war战争.
372
1061000
2000
(那年瑞典打完了最后一场战争)
18:09
And it's all solid固体 steel -- you can hear here.
373
1064000
3000
大家可以听一下 货真价实
18:12
And I'm going to take this blade of steel,
374
1067000
6000
接着我会将这把铁剑
18:18
and push it down through通过 my body身体 of blood血液 and flesh,
375
1073000
5000
穿过我这血肉之躯
18:23
and prove证明 to you that the seemingly似乎 impossible不可能 is possible可能.
376
1078000
4000
从而向你们证明,看上去不可能的事情是可能实现的
18:28
Can I request请求 a moment时刻 of absolute绝对 silence安静?
377
1083000
4000
请大家保持绝对的安静
18:43
(Applause掌声)
378
1098000
22000
www.gapminder.org

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com