TEDxBend
Paul Hessburg: Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it
保罗·赫斯伯格: 为什么森林火灾越来越严重——我们应该如何阻止
Filmed:
Readability: 4.1
1,282,030 views
大型火灾，也就是单次着火面积超过400平方公里的火灾，在美国西部发生的次数越来越多。导致这一结果的直接原因，是一个世纪以来，我们对于森林的错误管理，给森林带来了巨大的改变——出于无心，却影响巨大。我们如何避免更大的损失？森林生态学家保罗·赫斯伯格指出了森林火灾的一些残酷事实，并建议我们该如何恢复森林的自然平衡。
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick. Full bio
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
As you've probably noticed,
0
1028
1703
大家可能注意到了，
00:14
in recent years, a lot
of western forests have burned
of western forests have burned
1
2755
3177
近几年，西部很多森林爆发了
大规模毁灭性的火灾。
00:17
in large and destructive wildfires.
2
5956
3612
你们可能跟我一样，
00:22
If you're like me --
3
10840
1223
00:24
this western landscape
is actually why my family and I live here.
is actually why my family and I live here.
4
12087
4512
西部的森林正是吸引我和我的家人
生活在那里的原因。
生活在那里的原因。
00:29
And as a scientist and a father,
5
17558
2290
作为一名科学家，一名父亲，
00:31
I've become deeply concerned
about what we're leaving behind
about what we're leaving behind
6
19872
4071
我为我们留给子孙后代的东西
感到深深的担忧，
感到深深的担忧，
为我的孩子，还有我的5个孙辈。
00:35
for our kids, and now my five grandkids.
7
23967
3409
00:40
In the US, an area that's larger
than the state of Oregon has burned
than the state of Oregon has burned
8
28756
4873
在美国，仅仅过去10年间，
就有相当于俄勒冈州这么大的面积
就有相当于俄勒冈州这么大的面积
被火灾烧毁，
00:45
in just the last 10 years,
9
33653
1800
00:48
and tens of thousands of homes
have been destroyed.
have been destroyed.
10
36342
3850
数万的房屋被毁。
00:53
Acres burned and homes destroyed
have steadily increased
have steadily increased
11
41098
4764
火灾面积和被毁房屋数量
在过去30年间
在过去30年间
一直在持续增长，
00:57
over the last three decades,
12
45886
2959
01:02
and individual fires that are bigger
than 100,000 acres --
than 100,000 acres --
13
50328
5456
着火面积超过405平方公里的
单场火灾数量
单场火灾数量
01:07
they're actually on the rise.
14
55808
1628
也在增长。
我们称之为“大型火灾”。
01:09
These are what we call "megafires."
15
57460
2770
01:13
Megafires are the result of the way
we've managed this western landscape
we've managed this western landscape
16
61229
4770
大型火灾是过去150年间，
我们在持续变暖的气候下
我们在持续变暖的气候下
管理这美丽的西部森林
01:18
over the last 150 years
17
66023
2616
01:20
in a steadily warming climate.
18
68663
2113
所导致的后果。
01:23
Much of the destruction
that we are currently seeing
that we are currently seeing
19
71890
3686
很多我们如今看到的灾难
01:27
could actually have been avoided.
20
75600
1935
本来是可以避免的。
01:30
I've spent my entire career
studying these western landscapes,
studying these western landscapes,
21
78616
3522
我整个职业生涯
都在研究西部的森林，
都在研究西部的森林，
01:34
and the science is pretty clear:
22
82162
1968
其中的科学道理其实很简单：
01:36
if we don't change a few
of our fire-management habits,
of our fire-management habits,
23
84911
4018
如果我们不改变一些防火习惯，
01:41
we're going to lose many more
of our beloved forests.
of our beloved forests.
24
89996
3381
我们还将失去更多珍爱的森林。
01:46
Some won't recover in our lifetime
25
94062
2691
其中一些可能在我们这一代，
01:49
or my kids' lifetime.
26
97411
2168
甚至是下一代都无法恢复。
01:51
It's time we confront
some tough truths about wildfires,
some tough truths about wildfires,
27
99603
4379
我们要面对森林火灾的
几个残酷事实，
几个残酷事实，
01:56
and come to understand that we need
to learn to better live with them
to learn to better live with them
28
104006
4107
要明白，我们需要学会适应它，
02:01
and change how they come to our forests,
29
109162
2950
如何改变它来临的方式，
无论是对森林，
无论是对森林，
02:04
our homes
30
112829
1413
对我们的家，
02:07
and our communities.
31
115047
1544
还是对我们的社区。
02:09
So why is this happening?
32
117654
1830
那么森林火灾是怎么发生的呢？
02:11
Well, that's what I want
to talk to you about today.
to talk to you about today.
33
119508
2626
这正是我今天要讲的。
看到这片森林了吗？
02:16
You see this forest?
34
124180
1628
02:20
Isn't it beautiful?
35
128536
1625
真是漂亮极了。
02:29
Well, the forests that we see today
36
137877
2239
我们今天看到的森林
02:33
look nothing like the forests
of 100 or 150 years ago.
of 100 or 150 years ago.
37
141108
5423
与100到150年前的
森林完全不同。
森林完全不同。
02:39
Thankfully, panoramic photos
were taken in the 1930s
were taken in the 1930s
38
147318
3663
幸亏在30年代，
数以千计的西部山区防火员
数以千计的西部山区防火员
02:43
from thousands of western
mountaintop lookouts,
mountaintop lookouts,
39
151005
3888
拍下了许多全景照片，
02:46
and they show a fair approximation
40
154917
2439
能让我们一窥所继承的森林的
大致情况。
02:49
of the forest that we inherited.
41
157380
1844
02:52
The best word to describe
these forests of old is "patchy."
these forests of old is "patchy."
42
160441
4117
形容这些森林最好的一个词
就是“参差不齐”。
就是“参差不齐”。
02:57
The historical forest landscape
was this constantly evolving patchwork
was this constantly evolving patchwork
43
165303
3998
历史上的森林景观
就是这种不断发展的块状区域，
就是这种不断发展的块状区域，
03:01
of open and closed
canopy forests of all ages,
canopy forests of all ages,
44
169325
3759
里面是各个时期的森林，疏密相间，
有许多火灾的痕迹。
03:05
and there was so much evidence of fire.
45
173108
3492
03:09
And most fires were pretty small
by today's standards.
by today's standards.
46
177759
3708
如果按今天的标准来看，
大部分火灾都很小。
大部分火灾都很小。
03:14
And it's important to understand
that this landscape was open,
that this landscape was open,
47
182070
4008
很重要的一点，
这些森林间是有空隙的，
这些森林间是有空隙的，
03:18
with meadows and open canopy forests,
48
186102
2522
中间有草地，树林疏密相间，
是这些林间草地
03:20
and it was the grasses of the meadows
49
188648
2276
和位于树林间的落叶层
03:22
and in the grassy understories
of the open forest
of the open forest
50
190948
3472
03:26
that many of the wildfires were carried.
51
194444
2980
承受了大部分的火灾。
03:31
There were other forces at work, too,
shaping this historical patchwork:
shaping this historical patchwork:
52
199797
4062
还有其他的力量
也对造成这种块状区域起了作用：
也对造成这种块状区域起了作用：
比如地形，是朝南还是朝北，
03:35
for example, topography,
whether a place faces north or south
whether a place faces north or south
53
203883
3820
03:39
or it's on a ridge top
or in a valley bottom;
or in a valley bottom;
54
207727
2698
是在山脊还是在谷底，
03:42
elevation, how far up the mountain it is;
55
210449
2845
还有海拔，也就是山的高度，
还有天气，是否有大量雨雪，
03:45
and weather, whether a place
gets a lot of snow and rain,
gets a lot of snow and rain,
56
213318
4596
03:49
sunlight and warmth.
57
217938
2048
日照和气温。
03:52
These things all worked together
58
220010
3069
这些因素共同作用
决定了森林生长的方式。
03:55
to shape the way the forest grew.
59
223103
1903
03:57
And the way the forest grew
shaped the way fire behaved
shaped the way fire behaved
60
225974
5165
而森林生长的方式
又决定了火灾
又决定了火灾
如何对地貌产生影响。
04:03
on the landscape.
61
231163
1348
04:05
There was crosstalk
between the patterns and the processes.
between the patterns and the processes.
62
233431
5249
模式和过程互相交织，相互干扰。
04:10
You can see the new dry forest.
63
238704
1897
大家看新的干燥森林。
树是开放生长的，
树之间的空隙比较大。
树之间的空隙比较大。
04:12
Trees were open grown
and fairly far apart.
and fairly far apart.
64
240625
3202
04:15
Fires were frequent here,
and when they occurred,
and when they occurred,
65
243851
2445
火灾在这个区域经常发生，
但并不会很严重，
04:18
they weren't that severe,
66
246320
1578
04:19
while further up the mountain,
67
247922
1430
再往山上走，
04:21
in the moist and the cold forests,
68
249376
2123
在潮湿和寒冷的森林里，
04:23
trees were more densely grown
and fires were less frequent,
and fires were less frequent,
69
251523
3238
树木生长密集，火灾频率不高，
04:26
but when they occurred,
they were quite a bit more severe.
they were quite a bit more severe.
70
254785
3318
但是一旦发生，就会更加严重。
04:30
These different forest types,
the environments that they grew in
the environments that they grew in
71
258127
3643
森林的种类不同，生长环境不同，
04:33
and fire severity --
they all worked together
they all worked together
72
261794
3063
还有火灾的严重程度，
这些因素交织在一起，
这些因素交织在一起，
共同形成了历史区块。
04:36
to shape this historical patchwork.
73
264881
2648
04:40
And there was so much power
74
268429
3384
这种区块的作用
非常强大。
04:43
in this patchwork.
75
271837
1503
04:45
It provided a natural mechanism
76
273904
2527
它是一种天然的防御机制
04:48
to resist the spread of future fires
across the landscape.
across the landscape.
77
276455
3549
防止未来的火灾蔓延到整个森林。
04:53
Once a patch of forest burned,
78
281002
2146
一旦某一个区块的森林着火了，
04:55
it helped to prevent the flow
of fire across the landscape.
of fire across the landscape.
79
283172
3275
它能防止火灾蔓延到别的区块。
04:59
A way to think about it is,
80
287046
1491
换句话说，
05:00
the burned patches
helped the rest of the forest
helped the rest of the forest
81
288561
4563
着火的区块拯救了剩下的森林，
05:05
to be forest.
82
293148
2028
让它们得以延续。
05:08
Let's add humans to the mix.
83
296677
1851
让我们加入人类的影响。
05:11
For 10,000 years, Native Americans
lived on this landscape,
lived on this landscape,
84
299144
3725
1万年来，美洲原住民生活在这里，
05:14
and they intentionally burned it -- a lot.
85
302893
3533
他们焚烧了大片森林。
05:19
They used fire to burn meadows
and to thin certain forests
and to thin certain forests
86
307284
3892
他们焚烧草地，把森林变得稀疏，
05:23
so they could grow more food.
87
311200
2045
这样可以种更多粮食。
05:25
They used fire to increase graze
88
313269
3005
他们增加牧草，
05:28
for the deer and the elk
and the bison that they hunted.
and the bison that they hunted.
89
316298
3836
用来喂养捕猎来的鹿、麋鹿和野牛。
05:32
And most importantly, they figured out
90
320158
2513
最重要的是，他们发现，
05:34
if they burned in the spring and the fall,
91
322695
2626
如果他们在春季和秋季焚烧的话，
05:37
they could avoid the out-of-control
fires of summer.
fires of summer.
92
325345
3539
就可以避免在夏季
出现无法控制的大火。
出现无法控制的大火。
05:41
European settlement -- it occurred
much later, in the mid-1800s,
much later, in the mid-1800s,
93
329508
4484
欧洲移民——这已经是
很久以后的事儿了，在19世纪中叶，
很久以后的事儿了，在19世纪中叶，
05:46
and by the 1880s, livestock
grazing was in high gear.
grazing was in high gear.
94
334016
4275
在19世纪80年代，
畜牧业发展很快，
畜牧业发展很快，
05:50
I mean, if you think about it,
the cattle and the sheep ate the grasses
the cattle and the sheep ate the grasses
95
338315
3781
想象一下，牛羊吃掉的草
05:54
which had been the conveyer belt
for the historical fires,
for the historical fires,
96
342120
4041
是历史上那些火灾的传送带，
05:58
and this prevented once-frequent fires
from thinning out trees
from thinning out trees
97
346185
4094
它们阻止了日渐稀薄的森林中
曾经频发的火灾，
曾经频发的火灾，
06:02
and burning up dead wood.
98
350303
1621
并且清除死掉的树木。
06:04
Later came roads and railroads,
and they acted as potent firebreaks,
and they acted as potent firebreaks,
99
352634
5079
然后公路和铁路出现了，
它们是有效的防火道，
它们是有效的防火道，
06:09
interrupting further the flow of fire
across this landscape.
across this landscape.
100
357737
3972
能防止火灾蔓延到整片森林。
06:13
And then something happened
which caused a sudden pivot
which caused a sudden pivot
101
361733
3860
之后发生了一件事情，
彻底改变了我们的社会。
06:17
in our society.
102
365617
1421
06:19
In 1910, we had a huge wildfire.
103
367489
4073
1910年，发生了一场巨大的火灾。
06:23
It was the size
of the state of Connecticut.
of the state of Connecticut.
104
371586
2716
着火面积有康涅狄格州那么大。
06:27
We called it "the Big Burn."
105
375275
2640
我们称之为“大火灾”。
06:29
It stretched from eastern Washington
to western Montana,
to western Montana,
106
377939
3949
它从华盛顿东部一直蔓延到
蒙大拿州西部，
蒙大拿州西部，
06:33
and it burned, in a few days,
three million acres,
three million acres,
107
381912
3683
在短短几天内，
它烧毁了约12000平方公里的土地，
它烧毁了约12000平方公里的土地，
06:37
devoured several towns,
and it killed 87 people.
and it killed 87 people.
108
385619
4461
毁掉了许多村庄，有87人丧生。
大部分是消防员。
06:42
Most of them were firefighters.
109
390104
1749
06:45
Because of the Big Burn, wildfire
became public enemy number one,
became public enemy number one,
110
393178
3983
因为这场大火灾，森林火灾成为了
公众的头号敌人，
公众的头号敌人，
06:49
and this would shape the way
that we would think about wildfire
that we would think about wildfire
111
397185
3421
这件事改变了我们整个社会
在接下来100年里
06:52
in our society
112
400630
1281
06:53
for the next hundred years.
113
401935
1831
对于森林大火的看法。
06:56
Thereafter, the Forest Service,
just five years young at the time,
just five years young at the time,
114
404880
3431
之后，刚刚成立5年的
国家森林局，
国家森林局，
07:00
was tasked with the responsibility
of putting out all wildfires
of putting out all wildfires
115
408335
5132
承担起了在78万
平方公里的公共土地上
平方公里的公共土地上
07:05
on 193 million acres of public lands,
116
413491
3542
扑灭火灾的责任，
07:09
and they took this responsibility
117
417057
1940
他们将这项责任
看得很重。
07:11
very seriously.
118
419021
1163
07:12
They developed this unequaled
ability to put fires out,
ability to put fires out,
119
420872
3950
他们发展出了灭火的超级能力，
07:16
and they put out 95 to 98 percent
120
424846
3252
扑灭了每年发生在美国的
07:20
of all fires every single year in the US.
121
428122
4974
火灾中的95%-98%。
07:25
And from this point on,
it was now fire suppression
it was now fire suppression
122
433120
3402
从那时开始，森林的主要塑形者
07:29
and not wildfires
123
437387
1530
就不再是森林大火，
07:30
that would become a prime
shaper of our forests.
shaper of our forests.
124
438941
3986
而是对森林大火的压制。
07:35
After World War II, timber harvesting
got going in the west,
got going in the west,
125
443943
3500
二战过后，伐木业开始进入西部，
07:39
and the logging removed
the large and the old trees.
the large and the old trees.
126
447467
3123
砍伐掉了许多巨大而古老的树木。
07:42
These were survivors
of centuries of wildfires.
of centuries of wildfires.
127
450614
5281
它们是几个世纪以来
森林大火的幸存者。
森林大火的幸存者。
07:47
And the forest filled in.
128
455919
1932
新的森林补充进来。
07:49
Thin-barked, fire-sensitive
small trees filled in the gaps,
small trees filled in the gaps,
129
457875
4921
是那些树皮很薄，容易着火的小树，
07:54
and our forests became dense,
with trees so layered and close together
with trees so layered and close together
130
462820
5946
我们的森林变得浓密，
层层叠叠，距离很近，
层层叠叠，距离很近，
08:00
that they were touching each other.
131
468790
1982
互相紧挨着。
08:03
So fires were unintentionally blocked
by roads and railroads,
by roads and railroads,
132
471357
3918
于是大火无意中
被公路和铁路阻断，
被公路和铁路阻断，
08:07
the cattle and sheep ate the grass,
133
475299
2435
牛羊吃光了林间的草地，
08:09
then along comes fire suppression
and logging, removing the big trees,
and logging, removing the big trees,
134
477758
4320
对火灾的压制
以及被伐木业移除的大树，
以及被伐木业移除的大树，
08:14
and you know what happened?
135
482102
1325
结果怎么样？
08:15
All these factors worked together
136
483451
2254
所有这些因素叠加在一起
08:17
to allow the forest to fill in,
137
485729
2885
让新的森林补充进来，
08:20
creating what I call
the current epidemic of trees.
the current epidemic of trees.
138
488638
3979
我称之为“树木成灾”。
08:25
(Laughter)
139
493163
1983
（笑声）
08:28
Go figure.
140
496678
1176
想想吧。
08:29
(Laughter)
141
497878
1047
（笑声）
08:30
More trees than the landscape can support.
142
498949
3596
树木的数量超出了
森林的承受范围。
森林的承受范围。
08:35
So when you compare what forests
looked like 100 years ago and today,
looked like 100 years ago and today,
143
503506
4760
所以比较一下100年前
和现在的森林，
和现在的森林，
08:40
the change is actually remarkable.
144
508290
2486
变化还是很大的。
08:42
Notice how the patchwork has filled in.
145
510800
2410
看这些区块是如何形成的。
08:45
Dry south slopes --
146
513234
1548
南边干燥的斜坡，
08:46
they're now covered with trees.
147
514806
2293
现在已经长满了树。
08:49
A patchwork that was once
sculptured by mostly small
sculptured by mostly small
148
517843
2979
这些区块曾经是因为小型
08:52
and sort of medium-sized fires
149
520846
1758
或者中型的火灾形成的，
08:54
has filled in.
150
522628
1493
如今已经长满了树。
08:56
Do you see the blanket of trees?
151
524145
1988
看到这一层由树木组成的毯子了吗？
08:58
After just 150 years,
152
526679
2271
仅仅150年，
09:00
we have a dense carpet of forest.
153
528974
2557
就形成了如此致密的树林。
09:03
But there's more.
154
531555
1733
不仅如此，
09:05
Because trees are growing
so close together,
so close together,
155
533312
2955
因为树木是紧挨着生长起来的，
09:08
and because tree species,
tree sizes and ages
tree sizes and ages
156
536291
3328
而且在很大的一片区域内，
09:11
are so similar across large areas,
157
539643
3647
树木的种类、尺寸和年龄都很相似，
09:15
fires not only move easily
from acre to acre,
from acre to acre,
158
543314
3027
不仅导致火灾很容易蔓延，
09:18
but now, so do diseases
and insect outbreaks,
and insect outbreaks,
159
546365
4097
而且一旦有疾病或者病虫害爆发，
09:23
which are killing or reducing the vitality
160
551896
3328
就会导致大片的森林
09:27
of really large sections of forest now.
161
555248
2797
死亡或者是生病。
09:30
And after a century without fire,
162
558488
2859
经历了没有火灾的1个世纪之后，
09:33
dead branches and downed trees
on the forest floor,
on the forest floor,
163
561371
3579
林间铺满了枯枝和倒下的树木，
09:36
they're at powder-keg levels.
164
564974
2027
就像随时会爆炸的火药桶。
09:39
What's more, our summers
are getting hotter
are getting hotter
165
567956
2625
更严重的是，
如今的夏天是越来越热了，
如今的夏天是越来越热了，
09:42
and they're getting drier
166
570605
2155
也更加干燥，
09:44
and they're getting windier.
167
572784
1822
更加多风。
09:47
And the fire season is now
40 to 80 days longer each year.
40 to 80 days longer each year.
168
575163
5493
每年的火灾季都会延长40-80天。
09:53
Because of this,
climatologists are predicting
climatologists are predicting
169
581168
2500
基于此，气候学家预测，
09:55
that the area burned since 2000
170
583692
3220
2000年以后发生过火灾的地区，
09:58
will double or triple
171
586936
2785
在未来30年
10:01
in the next three decades.
172
589745
1904
数量会增致2倍甚至3倍。
10:05
And we're building houses
in the middle of this.
in the middle of this.
173
593015
3374
我们在森林中盖房子。
10:08
Two recently published studies tell us
174
596413
2109
最近公布的2项研究结果表明，
10:10
that more than 60 percent
of all new housing starts are being built
of all new housing starts are being built
175
598546
4537
有超过60%的新建房屋
是位于这些易燃的危险区域。
10:15
in this flammable and dangerous mess.
176
603107
2618
10:19
So when we do get a fire,
177
607145
1842
所以一旦着起火来，
10:21
large areas can literally go up in smoke.
178
609722
4050
会很快蔓延到大片的区域。
那么在看了我最开始
10:28
How do you feel now
179
616363
1585
10:31
about the forest image
180
619580
1691
展示的关于森林的照片
10:34
that I first showed you?
181
622070
1679
你们现在是什么感受？
10:35
It scares the heck out of me.
182
623773
1949
反正我是被吓坏了。
10:39
So what do we do?
183
627729
1390
那我们应该怎么做？
10:42
We need to restore
the power of the patchwork.
the power of the patchwork.
184
630010
3510
我们要重新发挥区块的作用。
10:45
We need to put the right kind of fire
185
633544
3149
要把程度合适的火灾
10:48
back into the system again.
186
636717
1902
重新引入到整个系统中间。
10:50
It's how we can resize
the severity of many of our future fires.
the severity of many of our future fires.
187
638643
6162
这样我们才能够控制
未来火灾的剧烈程度。
未来火灾的剧烈程度。
10:57
And the silver lining is
that we have tools
that we have tools
188
645277
2469
值得庆幸的是我们有工具，
10:59
and we have know-how to do this.
189
647770
2474
我们也很清楚应该怎么做。
11:02
Let's look at some of the tools.
190
650268
2139
我们来看看其中一些工具。
11:04
We can use prescribed burning
to intentionally thin out trees
to intentionally thin out trees
191
652431
4767
我们可以安排有计划的焚烧，
来有意地减少树木
来有意地减少树木
11:09
and burn up dead fuels.
192
657222
1826
烧掉枯枝败叶。
11:11
We do this to systematically
reduce them and keep them reduced.
reduce them and keep them reduced.
193
659740
4089
我们这么做是为了有计划
并持续地减少枯枝。
并持续地减少枯枝。
11:16
And what is that going to do?
194
664785
1382
这么做有什么好处呢？
11:18
It's going to create already-burned
patches on the landscape
patches on the landscape
195
666191
2874
它能在森林中创造出
已经燃烧过的区块，
已经燃烧过的区块，
11:21
that will resist the flow of future fires.
196
669089
2872
能够阻止未来火灾的蔓延。
11:24
We can combine mechanical thinning
with some of these treatments
with some of these treatments
197
672389
3312
我们可以将机械砍伐
跟上述方式相结合，
跟上述方式相结合，
11:27
where it's appropriate to do so,
198
675725
1691
在合适的地方这么来操作，
还能获取一些商业价值，
11:29
and capture some commercial value
199
677440
1774
11:31
and perhaps underwrite
some of these treatments,
some of these treatments,
200
679238
2931
也许能将这些方式外包出去，
11:34
especially around urban areas.
201
682193
2549
尤其是在城市周边地区。
11:36
And the best news of all
is that prescribed burning produces
is that prescribed burning produces
202
684766
3231
有计划焚烧最大的好处就是
11:40
so much less smoke than wildfires do.
203
688021
3656
它产生的烟比森林大火少多了。
11:43
It's not even close.
204
691701
1349
根本没法比。
11:45
But there's a hitch:
205
693074
1227
但是有一点，
11:46
prescribed burning smoke is currently
regulated under air quality rules
regulated under air quality rules
206
694962
4989
有计划焚烧产生的烟
受空气质量法规管制，
受空气质量法规管制，
11:51
as an avoidable nuisance.
207
699975
1935
是“可以避免的不当行为”。
11:54
But wildfire smoke?
208
702557
1681
但是森林大火的烟呢？
11:56
It simply gets a pass.
209
704262
2042
就没人管了。
12:00
Makes sense, doesn't it? (Laughs)
210
708153
2565
是这个道理，对吧？
（笑声）
（笑声）
12:02
So you know what happens?
211
710742
1275
结果怎么样？
我们的有计划焚烧进行得非常少，
12:04
We do far too little prescribed burning,
212
712041
3247
12:07
and we continually eat smoke
in the summers
in the summers
213
715312
3811
而我们在夏季要吸入大量
12:11
from megafires.
214
719147
1401
森林大火产生的浓烟。
12:12
We all need to work together
to get this changed.
to get this changed.
215
720572
3665
我们要共同行动，做出改变。
12:16
And finally, there's managed wildfires.
216
724711
1961
最后，还有可控的森林大火。
12:18
Instead of putting all the fires out,
217
726696
2627
我们不必将所有火灾都扑灭，
12:21
we need to put some of them back to work
218
729903
2529
而要善加利用，
12:24
thinning forests and reducing dead fuels.
219
732456
2991
降低森林密度，清除枯枝败叶。
12:28
We can herd them around the landscape
220
736005
2667
我们要在森林中合适的地方
让火灾发生，
12:30
when it's appropriate to do so
221
738696
1913
12:32
to help restore the power
of the patchwork.
of the patchwork.
222
740633
3903
重新发挥区块的作用。
12:38
And as you've probably figured out by now,
223
746623
3739
到现在大家可能已经意识到了，
12:42
this is actually a social problem.
224
750386
2206
这其实是一个社会问题。
它跟生态和气候有关，
12:44
It's got ecological
and climate explanations,
and climate explanations,
225
752616
2983
12:47
but it's a social problem,
and it will take us humans to solve it.
and it will take us humans to solve it.
226
755623
4696
但其实是一个社会问题，
需要我们人类来解决它。
需要我们人类来解决它。
12:53
Public support for these tools is poor.
227
761026
2432
对于刚刚提到的工具，
公共支持还不够。
公共支持还不够。
对于有计划的焚烧和
受控制的森林大火支持还不够。
受控制的森林大火支持还不够。
12:55
Prescribed burning and managed wildfires
are not well-supported.
are not well-supported.
228
763482
3682
12:59
We actually all simply want fires
to magically go away
to magically go away
229
767188
4648
我们都简单的希望，
火灾和它讨厌的浓烟一起
火灾和它讨厌的浓烟一起
13:04
and take that pesky smoke
with them, don't we?
with them, don't we?
230
772455
3215
神奇地消失，不是吗？
13:09
But there is no future
without lots of fire and lots of smoke.
without lots of fire and lots of smoke.
231
777122
5028
然而未来不可能没有火灾和浓烟。
13:14
That option is actually not on the table.
232
782174
2579
这是不可能完全避免的。
13:19
Until we, the owners of public lands,
make it our high priority
make it our high priority
233
787038
5181
直到我们——公共土地的拥有者们——
13:24
to do something about
the current situation,
the current situation,
234
792243
2713
行动起来，努力改变现状，
13:28
we're going to experience
continued losses to megafires.
continued losses to megafires.
235
796002
3621
我们还会经历许多次
带来巨大损失的火灾。
带来巨大损失的火灾。
13:31
So it's up to us.
236
799647
1517
一切取决于我们。
13:33
We can spread this message
to our lawmakers,
to our lawmakers,
237
801569
2719
我们可以让立法者明白这一点，
让他们帮助我们管理火灾，
13:36
folks who can help us manage our fires
238
804312
3439
13:40
and our forests.
239
808265
1872
管理森林。
13:45
If we're unsuccessful,
240
813680
1822
如果我们失败的话，
13:49
where will you go to play
241
817190
2006
我们喜欢的地方都被烧毁了，
13:52
when your favorite places
are burned black?
are burned black?
242
820140
2662
那我们还能去哪儿玩呢？
13:57
Where will you go
243
825096
1434
我们去哪儿
13:59
to breathe deep
244
827298
1464
尽情地
14:02
and slow?
245
830052
1323
深呼吸呢？
14:04
Thank you.
246
832080
1174
谢谢大家。
14:05
(Applause)
247
833278
4011
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologistPaul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick.
Why you should listen
Paul Hessburg is a research ecologist who builds models of historical and modern era conditions in large forests and studies what factors make them behave as they do. In fact, much of his research is trying to decipher what is normal. In his research, Hessburg wants to know how the forests we inherited worked before we changed them. What did "natural" look like, and what specifically did we change about naturalness? What's still working well, and what could use a hand down?
Hessburg has spent most of his adult life (35 years) in his dream job. He works for the USDA, Forest Service, at the Pacific Northwest Research Station, where he is stationed at a field laboratory in Wenatchee, WA, US. That's located about five blocks just east of heaven, he says. He has a doctorate in Forest Pathology from Oregon State University, and he has been working in forestry for 40 years. He's also an Affiliate Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
In 2017, Hessburg was awarded his Research Station's Distinguished Scientist Award, and he will be awarded his Agencies' Distinguished Scientist Award for 2017, in February of 2018.
Over the last two years, Paul has traveled and spoken to over 100 western US communities about the new era of megafires and what we can do about it. As he says, "Unless we change a few of our forest and fire management habits in the US, we will lose many more beloved forests; some won’t recover in our lifetime."
Paul Hessburg | Speaker | TED.com