ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick.

Why you should listen

Paul Hessburg is a research ecologist who builds models of historical and modern era conditions in large forests and studies what factors make them behave as they do. In fact, much of his research is trying to decipher what is normal. In his research, Hessburg wants to know how the forests we inherited worked before we changed them. What did "natural" look like, and what specifically did we change about naturalness? What's still working well, and what could use a hand down?

Hessburg has spent most of his adult life (35 years) in his dream job. He works for the USDA, Forest Service, at the Pacific Northwest Research Station, where he is stationed at a field laboratory in Wenatchee, WA, US. That's located about five blocks just east of heaven, he says. He has a doctorate in Forest Pathology from Oregon State University, and he has been working in forestry for 40 years. He's also an Affiliate Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA. 

In 2017, Hessburg was awarded his Research Station's Distinguished Scientist Award, and he will be awarded his Agencies' Distinguished Scientist Award for 2017, in February of 2018.

Over the last two years, Paul has traveled and spoken to over 100 western US communities about the new era of megafires and what we can do about it. As he says, "Unless we change a few of our forest and fire management habits in the US, we will lose many more beloved forests; some won’t recover in our lifetime."

More profile about the speaker
Paul Hessburg | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxBend

Paul Hessburg: Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it

保羅海斯柏格: 為什麼野火的狀況更糟了?我們要如何阻止?

Filmed:
1,282,030 views

美國西部燃起了不少超級大火,也就是延燒超過十萬英畝的大火──源自我們百年來誤導的管理,無意間大大地改變了森林樣貌,所產生的直接結果。我們能採取什麼步驟來避免進一步的毀滅呢?森林生態學家保羅海斯柏格帶我們面對一些關於野火的殘酷真相,並詳細說明如何能協助恢復地景的自然平衡。
- Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
As you've probably大概 noticed注意到,
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你們可能已經注意到,
00:14
in recent最近 years年份, a lot
of western西 forests森林 have burned
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近年來,有很多西部的森林
00:17
in large and destructive有害 wildfires野火.
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遭到毀滅性的大型野火摧殘。
00:22
If you're like me --
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如果你們和我一樣,
00:24
this western西 landscape景觀
is actually其實 why my family家庭 and I live生活 here.
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像這樣的西部風景,就是我和
我的家人會住在這裡的原因。
00:29
And as a scientist科學家 and a father父親,
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身為科學家和父親,
00:31
I've become成為 deeply concerned關心
about what we're leaving離開 behind背後
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我非常關切我們會留下什麼給
00:35
for our kids孩子, and now my five grandkids孫子.
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我們的孩子,和我現在的五個孫子。
00:40
In the US, an area that's larger
than the state of Oregon俄勒岡 has burned
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在美國,僅在過去十年間,
被火燒毀的面積就比奧勒崗州還大,
00:45
in just the last 10 years年份,
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00:48
and tens of thousands數千 of homes家園
have been destroyed銷毀.
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數萬個家園因此被摧毀。
00:53
Acres英畝 burned and homes家園 destroyed銷毀
have steadily穩步 increased增加
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過去三十年間,被燒毀的土地面積
和被摧毀的家園數目
00:57
over the last three decades幾十年,
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一直穩定在增加,
01:02
and individual個人 fires火災 that are bigger
than 100,000 acres --
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而面積大於十萬英畝的個別火災數目
01:07
they're actually其實 on the rise上升.
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事實上是在增加的。
01:09
These are what we call "megafiresmegafires."
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我們稱這些大火為「超級大火」。
01:13
MegafiresMegafires are the result結果 of the way
we've我們已經 managed管理 this western西 landscape景觀
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超級大火發生的原因,
是我們過去 150 年來,
01:18
over the last 150 years年份
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在穩定持續暖化的氣候下,
經營這塊西部地景的方式。
01:20
in a steadily穩步 warming變暖 climate氣候.
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01:23
Much of the destruction毀壞
that we are currently目前 seeing眼看
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我們目前看到的破壞,
其實大多數是本來可以避免的。
01:27
could actually其實 have been avoided避免.
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01:30
I've spent花費 my entire整個 career事業
studying研究 these western西 landscapes景觀,
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我的整個職涯都在
研究這些西部地景,
01:34
and the science科學 is pretty漂亮 clear明確:
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科學是非常明確的:
01:36
if we don't change更改 a few少數
of our fire-management消防管理 habits習慣,
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如果不改變我們
管理大火的一些習慣,
01:41
we're going to lose失去 many許多 more
of our beloved心愛 forests森林.
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我們將會失去更多更多鍾愛的森林。
01:46
Some won't慣於 recover恢復 in our lifetime一生
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有些是在我們一生中,
甚至我們孩子的一生中,
01:49
or my kids'孩子們 lifetime一生.
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都無法復元的。
01:51
It's time we confront面對
some tough強硬 truths真理 about wildfires野火,
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該是時候了,該來面對
關於野火的棘手真相了,
01:56
and come to understand理解 that we need
to learn學習 to better live生活 with them
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要了解,我們必須學習
和它們共處得更好一些,
02:01
and change更改 how they come to our forests森林,
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並改變它們如何來到我們的森林、
02:04
our homes家園
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我們的家園、
02:07
and our communities社區.
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我們的社區。
02:09
So why is this happening事件?
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所以,為什麼會發生?
02:11
Well, that's what I want
to talk to you about today今天.
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這就是今天我想和大家談的。
02:16
You see this forest森林?
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看到這座森林了嗎?
02:20
Isn't it beautiful美麗?
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它很美,不是嗎?
02:29
Well, the forests森林 that we see today今天
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我們現今看到的森林,
02:33
look nothing like the forests森林
of 100 or 150 years年份 ago.
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一點也不像 100
或 150 年前的森林。
02:39
Thankfully感激地, panoramic全景 photos相片
were taken採取 in the 1930s
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謝天謝地,1930 年代時,
自西部山頂瞭望所
拍攝了數千個全景照片,
02:43
from thousands數千 of western西
mountaintop山頂 lookouts瞭望,
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02:46
and they show顯示 a fair公平 approximation近似
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靠這些照片,我們可以大略呈現出
02:49
of the forest森林 that we inherited遺傳.
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我們所繼承的森林的樣貌。
02:52
The best最好 word to describe描述
these forests森林 of old is "patchy片狀."
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要形容這些老森林,
最好的詞就是「拼湊成的」。
02:57
The historical歷史的 forest森林 landscape景觀
was this constantly經常 evolving進化 patchwork拼湊物
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歷史的森林地景,
是不斷演化的拼湊之作,
03:01
of open打開 and closed關閉
canopy華蓋 forests森林 of all ages年齡,
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由各種年齡,稀疏與鬱閉的
冠層森林拼湊而成,
03:05
and there was so much evidence證據 of fire.
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有好多大火燒過的痕跡。
03:09
And most fires火災 were pretty漂亮 small
by today's今天的 standards標準.
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用現今的標準來看,
大部份的火災規模都算很小。
03:14
And it's important重要 to understand理解
that this landscape景觀 was open打開,
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重要的是要了解這是個稀疏的地景,
03:18
with meadows草甸 and open打開 canopy華蓋 forests森林,
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有草地,也有稀疏冠層森林;
03:20
and it was the grasses of the meadows草甸
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是草地上的草,
03:22
and in the grassy綠色的 understoriesunderstories
of the open打開 forest森林
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以及稀疏森林中長滿草的林下層,
03:26
that many許多 of the wildfires野火 were carried攜帶的.
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被許多野火燒了過去。
03:31
There were other forces軍隊 at work, too,
shaping成型 this historical歷史的 patchwork拼湊物:
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還有其他的力量
形成這個歷史上的拼湊物,
03:35
for example, topography地形,
whether是否 a place地點 faces面孔 north or south
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比如:地形學,地形朝南或朝北,
03:39
or it's on a ridge top最佳
or in a valley bottom底部;
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是在山脊上或是在谷底;
03:42
elevation海拔, how far up the mountain it is;
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海拔高度,在山上多高的地方;
03:45
and weather天氣, whether是否 a place地點
gets得到 a lot of snow and rain,
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是否常常下雪或是下雨,
03:49
sunlight陽光 and warmth熱情.
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是否有陽光且溫暖。
03:52
These things all worked工作 together一起
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所有這些元素加在一起,
03:55
to shape形狀 the way the forest森林 grew成長.
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造成森林成長的方式。
03:57
And the way the forest森林 grew成長
shaped成形 the way fire behaved
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而森林成長的方式,
就會形成大火在地景上的行為方式。
04:03
on the landscape景觀.
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04:05
There was crosstalk相聲
between之間 the patterns模式 and the processes流程.
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在模式和過程之間互相干擾影響。
04:10
You can see the new dry forest森林.
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如你所見,左側是新的乾燥森林。
04:12
Trees were open打開 grown長大的
and fairly相當 far apart距離.
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樹木開放成長,且間距算是遠的。
04:15
Fires火災 were frequent頻繁 here,
and when they occurred發生,
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大火常常在這裡發生,
發生時都不會太嚴重,
04:18
they weren't that severe嚴重,
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04:19
while further進一步 up the mountain,
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再往山上一點,
04:21
in the moist and the cold forests森林,
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中間是潮濕且寒冷的森林,
04:23
trees樹木 were more densely密地 grown長大的
and fires火災 were less frequent頻繁,
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樹木的密度比較高,
比較不常發生大火,
04:26
but when they occurred發生,
they were quite相當 a bit more severe嚴重.
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但一旦發生大火,
通常會比較嚴重一些。
04:30
These different不同 forest森林 types類型,
the environments環境 that they grew成長 in
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不同類型的森林、它們的生長環境,
04:33
and fire severity嚴重 --
they all worked工作 together一起
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以及大火的猛烈程度,
通通作用在一起,
04:36
to shape形狀 this historical歷史的 patchwork拼湊物.
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形成了這個歷史的拼湊之作。
04:40
And there was so much power功率
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在這個拼湊之作當中,
有著非常大的力量。
04:43
in this patchwork拼湊物.
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04:45
It provided提供 a natural自然 mechanism機制
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它提供了一個自然機制,
04:48
to resist the spread傳播 of future未來 fires火災
across橫過 the landscape景觀.
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來抵抗未來的大火,
不讓它們在地景上擴散。
04:53
Once一旦 a patch補丁 of forest森林 burned,
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一旦森林其中一塊被燒掉,
04:55
it helped幫助 to prevent避免 the flow
of fire across橫過 the landscape景觀.
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它能協助防止大火延燒至地景各處。
04:59
A way to think about it is,
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可以把它看待成,
05:00
the burned patches補丁
helped幫助 the rest休息 of the forest森林
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森林中被燒毀的那些部份,
能協助維持剩下的森林仍然是森林。
05:05
to be forest森林.
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讓我們混合考量人類的因素。
05:08
Let's add humans人類 to the mix混合.
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05:11
For 10,000 years年份, Native本地人 Americans美國人
lived生活 on this landscape景觀,
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美國原住民在這地景上住了一萬年,
05:14
and they intentionally故意地 burned it -- a lot.
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他們常常會刻意放火,
05:19
They used fire to burn燒傷 meadows草甸
and to thin certain某些 forests森林
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用火燒草原,讓某些森林變得稀疏,
05:23
so they could grow增長 more food餐飲.
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來種更多的食物。
05:25
They used fire to increase增加 graze輕擦
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他們用火來增加牧草的量,
05:28
for the deer鹿 and the elk麋鹿
and the bison野牛 that they hunted獵殺.
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供獵獲的鹿、麋和野牛食用。
05:32
And most importantly重要的, they figured想通 out
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最重要的是
他們了解如果在春天和秋天放火,
05:34
if they burned in the spring彈簧 and the fall秋季,
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05:37
they could avoid避免 the out-of-control外的控制
fires火災 of summer夏季.
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就能避免夏天失控的大火。
05:41
European歐洲的 settlement沉降 -- it occurred發生
much later後來, in the mid-中-1800s,
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很久之後,歐洲人
於十九世紀中期開始殖民,
05:46
and by the 1880s, livestock家畜
grazing放牧 was in high gear齒輪.
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1880 年代到達家畜放牧的高點。
05:50
I mean, if you think about it,
the cattle黃牛 and the sheep ate the grasses
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我的意思是,試想牛和羊要吃草,
05:54
which哪一個 had been the conveyer輸送帶 belt
for the historical歷史的 fires火災,
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這些草地曾是史上火災的輸送帶,
05:58
and this prevented防止 once-frequent一旦頻繁 fires火災
from thinning細化 out trees樹木
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使得以前頻繁的大火
不再能夠稀疏樹木、燒光枯木。
06:02
and burning燃燒 up dead wood.
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06:04
Later後來 came來了 roads道路 and railroads鐵路,
and they acted行動 as potent有力的 firebreaks防火帶,
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然後出現了道路和鐵路,
它們成了非常有效的防火道,
06:09
interrupting中斷 further進一步 the flow of fire
across橫過 this landscape景觀.
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進一步阻斷大火延燒至地景各處。
06:13
And then something happened發生
which哪一個 caused造成 a sudden突然 pivot
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接下來發生的事使社會突然轉變。
06:17
in our society社會.
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06:19
In 1910, we had a huge巨大 wildfire磷火.
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1910 年,有一場大野火,
06:23
It was the size尺寸
of the state of Connecticut康涅狄格.
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大小和康乃迪克州一樣大。
06:27
We called it "the Big Burn燒傷."
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我們稱之為「大火燒(Big Burn)」。
06:29
It stretched拉伸 from eastern Washington華盛頓
to western西 Montana蒙大拿,
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它的範圍從華盛頓州的東邊
一路延伸到蒙大拿州的西邊,
06:33
and it burned, in a few少數 days,
three million百萬 acres,
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幾天之內就燒毀了三百萬英畝的地,
06:37
devoured吞噬 several一些 towns城市,
and it killed殺害 87 people.
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吞滅了數個小鎮,
造成 87 人死亡,
06:42
Most of them were firefighters消防員.
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大部份是消防員。
06:45
Because of the Big Burn燒傷, wildfire磷火
became成為 public上市 enemy敵人 number one,
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這次的大火燒使得野火
成了全民的頭號公敵,
06:49
and this would shape形狀 the way
that we would think about wildfire磷火
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塑造我們社會在接下來百年間
06:52
in our society社會
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對於野火的看法。
06:53
for the next下一個 hundred years年份.
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06:56
Thereafter此後, the Forest森林 Service服務,
just five years年份 young年輕 at the time,
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其後,當時成立才五年的林務局
被賦予重任,
07:00
was tasked任務 with the responsibility責任
of putting out all wildfires野火
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要消滅公地上所有的野火,
07:05
on 193 million百萬 acres of public上市 lands土地,
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多達 193 百萬英畝的面積。
07:09
and they took this responsibility責任
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他們非常認真地看待這項責任,
07:11
very seriously認真地.
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07:12
They developed發達 this unequaled無比
ability能力 to put fires火災 out,
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發展出無與倫比的滅火能力,
07:16
and they put out 95 to 98 percent百分
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每年 95% 至 98% 的全美國大火
07:20
of all fires火災 every一切 single year in the US.
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被他們撲滅掉。
07:25
And from this point on,
it was now fire suppression抑制
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從此之後,
撲滅火災取代了野火,
07:29
and not wildfires野火
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成為我們森林成形的主要因素。
07:30
that would become成為 a prime主要
shaper整形 of our forests森林.
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07:35
After World世界 War戰爭 IIII, timber木材 harvesting收穫
got going in the west西,
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二次世界大戰後,
西部開始伐木,
07:39
and the logging記錄 removed去除
the large and the old trees樹木.
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砍伐原木造成大樹和老樹消失。
07:42
These were survivors倖存者
of centuries百年 of wildfires野火.
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它們原是百年來野火下的倖存者。
07:47
And the forest森林 filled填充 in.
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森林接著填補上來,
07:49
Thin-barked薄樹皮, fire-sensitive火敏感
small trees樹木 filled填充 in the gaps空白,
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對火敏感的薄皮小樹木補滿了空隙,
07:54
and our forests森林 became成為 dense稠密,
with trees樹木 so layered分層 and close together一起
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我們的森林變成高密度,
樹木近近疊在一起,會彼此碰觸;
08:00
that they were touching接觸 each other.
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08:03
So fires火災 were unintentionally無意中 blocked受阻
by roads道路 and railroads鐵路,
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道路和鐵路無意間阻斷火的蔓延;
08:07
the cattle黃牛 and sheep ate the grass,
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牛和羊吃草;
08:09
then along沿 comes fire suppression抑制
and logging記錄, removing去除 the big trees樹木,
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接著而來的人為滅火、
伐木和砍掉大樹,
你們可知道發生了什麼事?
08:14
and you know what happened發生?
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08:15
All these factors因素 worked工作 together一起
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所有這些因素一起作用,
08:17
to allow允許 the forest森林 to fill in,
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森林填補了間隙,
08:20
creating創建 what I call
the current當前 epidemic疫情 of trees樹木.
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造成我稱為「目前樹木氾濫的疫情」。
08:25
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
08:28
Go figure數字.
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去想想吧。
08:29
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
08:30
More trees樹木 than the landscape景觀 can support支持.
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樹木的數量遠超過
地景能夠支持的量。
08:35
So when you compare比較 what forests森林
looked看著 like 100 years年份 ago and today今天,
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因此,比較百年前和現今的森林,
08:40
the change更改 is actually其實 remarkable卓越.
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改變其實很驚人。
08:42
Notice注意 how the patchwork拼湊物 has filled填充 in.
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注意看拼湊之作是怎麼被填補的。
08:45
Dry south slopes連續下坡 --
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原本乾燥的南面山坡
08:46
they're now covered覆蓋 with trees樹木.
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現在被樹木覆蓋滿了。
08:49
A patchwork拼湊物 that was once一旦
sculptured雕塑 by mostly大多 small
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曾經主要由中小型的火災
所塑成的拼湊之作
08:52
and sort分類 of medium-sized中型 fires火災
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08:54
has filled填充 in.
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已經被填補滿了。
08:56
Do you see the blanket of trees樹木?
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看到樹木的覆蓋層了嗎?
08:58
After just 150 years年份,
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僅僅經過 150 年,
09:00
we have a dense稠密 carpet地毯 of forest森林.
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已經有了一片高密度的森林。
09:03
But there's more.
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還不只如此。
09:05
Because trees樹木 are growing生長
so close together一起,
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因為樹木生長的距離非常近,
09:08
and because tree species種類,
tree sizes大小 and ages年齡
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因為長在大片區域中的樹木,
09:11
are so similar類似 across橫過 large areas,
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種類、尺寸、年齡都太相似,
09:15
fires火災 not only move移動 easily容易
from acre英畝 to acre英畝,
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火勢不但很容易從
一英畝延燒到下一英畝,
09:18
but now, so do diseases疾病
and insect昆蟲 outbreaks爆發,
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發生的疾病和昆蟲疫情
也一樣容易傳播,
09:23
which哪一個 are killing謀殺 or reducing減少 the vitality活力
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因此造成現在的森林
09:27
of really large sections部分 of forest森林 now.
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大片區域地死亡或衰弱。
09:30
And after a century世紀 without fire,
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一整個世紀沒有火災之後,
09:33
dead branches分支機構 and downed擊落 trees樹木
on the forest森林 floor地板,
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在森林地面上的枯枝和倒樹
09:36
they're at powder-keg粉桶 levels水平.
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處在一觸即發的層級。
09:39
What's more, our summers夏天
are getting得到 hotter
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此外,夏天越來越熱,
09:42
and they're getting得到 drier乾燥劑
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越來越乾燥,
09:44
and they're getting得到 windier多風.
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風也越來越大 。
09:47
And the fire season季節 is now
40 to 80 days longer each year.
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如今每年的火季長了 40~80 天。
09:53
Because of this,
climatologists氣象學 are predicting預測
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因此,氣候學家預測,
09:55
that the area burned since以來 2000
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自 2000 年起燒掉區域的面積,
09:58
will double or triple三倍
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在接下來三十年間會
變為兩倍或三倍。
10:01
in the next下一個 three decades幾十年.
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10:05
And we're building建造 houses房屋
in the middle中間 of this.
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而我們在這其中蓋房子。
10:08
Two recently最近 published發表 studies學習 tell us
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兩份近期發佈的研究告訴我們,
10:10
that more than 60 percent百分
of all new housing住房 starts啟動 are being存在 built內置
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超過 60% 的新住房
被建築在這種可燃且危險的地方。
10:15
in this flammable易燃的 and dangerous危險 mess食堂.
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10:19
So when we do get a fire,
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所以一旦發生火災,
10:21
large areas can literally按照字面 go up in smoke抽煙.
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會有大片的面積化為灰燼。
10:28
How do you feel now
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現在你們對於我一開始
10:31
about the forest森林 image圖片
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讓各位看的那張森林圖片
10:34
that I first showed顯示 you?
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感覺如何?
10:35
It scares恐慌 the heck赫克 out of me.
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它把我嚇壞了。
10:39
So what do we do?
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我們應該怎麼做?
10:42
We need to restore恢復
the power功率 of the patchwork拼湊物.
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我們得要恢復拼湊之作的力量。
10:45
We need to put the right kind of fire
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我們得要把「對」的那種火
10:48
back into the system系統 again.
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再次放回到系統當中。
10:50
It's how we can resize調整
the severity嚴重 of many許多 of our future未來 fires火災.
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這種方式能讓我們改變
許多未來火災的嚴重程度。
10:57
And the silver lining is
that we have tools工具
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讓人感到欣慰的是
我們有工具,
10:59
and we have know-how知識 to do this.
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也有該怎麼做的實際知識。
11:02
Let's look at some of the tools工具.
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咱們來看看其中一些工具。
11:04
We can use prescribed規定 burning燃燒
to intentionally故意地 thin out trees樹木
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我們可以用計畫性火燒(控制燒除)
來刻意讓樹木變稀疏,
11:09
and burn燒傷 up dead fuels燃料.
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並燒盡可燃物。
11:11
We do this to systematically系統
reduce減少 them and keep them reduced減少.
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這麼做可以系統性地減少
並保持它們於少量。
11:16
And what is that going to do?
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那會有什麼結果?
11:18
It's going to create創建 already-burned已經燒
patches補丁 on the landscape景觀
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那會在地景上創造出
已經燒光的區塊,
11:21
that will resist the flow of future未來 fires火災.
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能夠防止未來大火的竄燒。
11:24
We can combine結合 mechanical機械 thinning細化
with some of these treatments治療
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我們可以把機械式的稀疏做法
和這類處理方式結合,
11:27
where it's appropriate適當 to do so,
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在適當的情況下這麼做,
11:29
and capture捕獲 some commercial廣告 value
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並獲得一些商業價值,
11:31
and perhaps也許 underwrite包銷
some of these treatments治療,
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也許還能承保這類處理方式,
11:34
especially特別 around urban城市的 areas.
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特別是在都市地區。
11:36
And the best最好 news新聞 of all
is that prescribed規定 burning燃燒 produces產生
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最好的消息是計畫性火燒所產生的煙
11:40
so much less smoke抽煙 than wildfires野火 do.
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遠遠少於野火產生的煙。
11:43
It's not even close.
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差距很大。
11:45
But there's a hitch拴住:
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但有個問題:
11:46
prescribed規定 burning燃燒 smoke抽煙 is currently目前
regulated調控 under air空氣 quality質量 rules規則
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依目前空氣品質規定的規範,
計畫性火燒的煙是可避免的妨礙行為。
11:51
as an avoidable避免 nuisance滋擾.
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11:54
But wildfire磷火 smoke抽煙?
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但野火的煙呢?
11:56
It simply只是 gets得到 a pass通過.
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它沒被規範。
12:00
Makes使 sense, doesn't it? (Laughs)
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合理嗎?(笑聲)
12:02
So you know what happens發生?
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所以會發生什麼事?
12:04
We do far too little prescribed規定 burning燃燒,
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我們計畫性的火燒做得太少了,
12:07
and we continually不斷 eat smoke抽煙
in the summers夏天
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因而使我們在夏天
持續吸入來自超級大火的煙。
12:11
from megafiresmegafires.
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12:12
We all need to work together一起
to get this changed.
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我們得要同心協力來改變這一點。
12:16
And finally最後, there's managed管理 wildfires野火.
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最後,還有管制野火。
12:18
Instead代替 of putting all the fires火災 out,
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不要撲滅所有的野火,
12:21
we need to put some of them back to work
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得要讓其中一些繼續燒下去,
12:24
thinning細化 forests森林 and reducing減少 dead fuels燃料.
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讓森林變稀疏,減少乾枯的可燃物。
12:28
We can herd放牧 them around the landscape景觀
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我們可以在地景上「放牧」野火,
12:30
when it's appropriate適當 to do so
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在適當的情況下這樣做,
12:32
to help restore恢復 the power功率
of the patchwork拼湊物.
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就能協助恢復拼湊之作的力量。
12:38
And as you've probably大概 figured想通 out by now,
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現在你們可能已經想通了,
12:42
this is actually其實 a social社會 problem問題.
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這其實是個社會問題。
12:44
It's got ecological生態
and climate氣候 explanations說明,
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它的確有生態上和氣候上的解釋,
12:47
but it's a social社會 problem問題,
and it will take us humans人類 to solve解決 it.
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但它是個社會問題,
需要我們人類來解決。
12:53
Public上市 support支持 for these tools工具 is poor較差的.
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沒有多少大眾支持這些工具。
12:55
Prescribed規定 burning燃燒 and managed管理 wildfires野火
are not well-supported很好的支持.
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計畫性火燒和管制野火
並沒有受到很好的支持。
12:59
We actually其實 all simply只是 want fires火災
to magically神奇 go away
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事實上我們只想要大火
神奇地自己熄滅掉,
13:04
and take that pesky討厭 smoke抽煙
with them, don't we?
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也一併帶走討厭的煙,對吧?
13:09
But there is no future未來
without lots of fire and lots of smoke抽煙.
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但未來不可能沒有
多場火災和很多的煙。
13:14
That option選項 is actually其實 not on the table.
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其實桌面上並沒有這選項。
13:19
Until直到 we, the owners擁有者 of public上市 lands土地,
make it our high priority優先
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直到公共土地的所有者
將這問題列為優先,
13:24
to do something about
the current當前 situation情況,
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針對目前的情況行動,
13:28
we're going to experience經驗
continued繼續 losses損失 to megafiresmegafires.
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不然我們就會繼續經歷
超級大火造成的損失。
13:31
So it's up to us.
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所以,決定權在我們的手上。
13:33
We can spread傳播 this message信息
to our lawmakers國會議員,
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我們可以把這訊息傳給立法者,
13:36
folks鄉親 who can help us manage管理 our fires火災
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給那些能夠協助我們
管制大火和森林的人。
13:40
and our forests森林.
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13:45
If we're unsuccessful不成功,
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如果我們沒能成功,
13:49
where will you go to play
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當你最喜歡的地方被燒到焦黑時,
你要到哪裡去玩?
13:52
when your favorite喜愛 places地方
are burned black黑色?
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13:57
Where will you go
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你要去哪裡
13:59
to breathe呼吸 deep
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緩慢地深呼吸?
14:02
and slow?
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14:04
Thank you.
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謝謝。
14:05
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Lilian Chiu
Reviewed by Helen Chang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick.

Why you should listen

Paul Hessburg is a research ecologist who builds models of historical and modern era conditions in large forests and studies what factors make them behave as they do. In fact, much of his research is trying to decipher what is normal. In his research, Hessburg wants to know how the forests we inherited worked before we changed them. What did "natural" look like, and what specifically did we change about naturalness? What's still working well, and what could use a hand down?

Hessburg has spent most of his adult life (35 years) in his dream job. He works for the USDA, Forest Service, at the Pacific Northwest Research Station, where he is stationed at a field laboratory in Wenatchee, WA, US. That's located about five blocks just east of heaven, he says. He has a doctorate in Forest Pathology from Oregon State University, and he has been working in forestry for 40 years. He's also an Affiliate Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA. 

In 2017, Hessburg was awarded his Research Station's Distinguished Scientist Award, and he will be awarded his Agencies' Distinguished Scientist Award for 2017, in February of 2018.

Over the last two years, Paul has traveled and spoken to over 100 western US communities about the new era of megafires and what we can do about it. As he says, "Unless we change a few of our forest and fire management habits in the US, we will lose many more beloved forests; some won’t recover in our lifetime."

More profile about the speaker
Paul Hessburg | Speaker | TED.com