TEDxBend
Paul Hessburg: Why wildfires have gotten worse -- and what we can do about it
Filmed:
Readability: 4.1
1,282,030 views
Megafires, individual fires that burn more than 100,000 acres, are on the rise in the western United States -- the direct result of unintentional yet massive changes we've brought to the forests through a century of misguided management. What steps can we take to avoid further destruction? Forest ecologist Paul Hessburg confronts some tough truths about wildfires and details how we can help restore the natural balance of the landscape.
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologist
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick. Full bio
Paul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
As you've probably noticed,
0
1028
1703
00:14
in recent years, a lot
of western forests have burned
of western forests have burned
1
2755
3177
00:17
in large and destructive wildfires.
2
5956
3612
00:22
If you're like me --
3
10840
1223
00:24
this western landscape
is actually why my family and I live here.
is actually why my family and I live here.
4
12087
4512
00:29
And as a scientist and a father,
5
17558
2290
00:31
I've become deeply concerned
about what we're leaving behind
about what we're leaving behind
6
19872
4071
00:35
for our kids, and now my five grandkids.
7
23967
3409
00:40
In the US, an area that's larger
than the state of Oregon has burned
than the state of Oregon has burned
8
28756
4873
00:45
in just the last 10 years,
9
33653
1800
00:48
and tens of thousands of homes
have been destroyed.
have been destroyed.
10
36342
3850
00:53
Acres burned and homes destroyed
have steadily increased
have steadily increased
11
41098
4764
00:57
over the last three decades,
12
45886
2959
01:02
and individual fires that are bigger
than 100,000 acres --
than 100,000 acres --
13
50328
5456
01:07
they're actually on the rise.
14
55808
1628
01:09
These are what we call "megafires."
15
57460
2770
01:13
Megafires are the result of the way
we've managed this western landscape
we've managed this western landscape
16
61229
4770
01:18
over the last 150 years
17
66023
2616
01:20
in a steadily warming climate.
18
68663
2113
01:23
Much of the destruction
that we are currently seeing
that we are currently seeing
19
71890
3686
01:27
could actually have been avoided.
20
75600
1935
01:30
I've spent my entire career
studying these western landscapes,
studying these western landscapes,
21
78616
3522
01:34
and the science is pretty clear:
22
82162
1968
01:36
if we don't change a few
of our fire-management habits,
of our fire-management habits,
23
84911
4018
01:41
we're going to lose many more
of our beloved forests.
of our beloved forests.
24
89996
3381
01:46
Some won't recover in our lifetime
25
94062
2691
01:49
or my kids' lifetime.
26
97411
2168
01:51
It's time we confront
some tough truths about wildfires,
some tough truths about wildfires,
27
99603
4379
01:56
and come to understand that we need
to learn to better live with them
to learn to better live with them
28
104006
4107
02:01
and change how they come to our forests,
29
109162
2950
02:04
our homes
30
112829
1413
02:07
and our communities.
31
115047
1544
02:09
So why is this happening?
32
117654
1830
02:11
Well, that's what I want
to talk to you about today.
to talk to you about today.
33
119508
2626
02:16
You see this forest?
34
124180
1628
02:20
Isn't it beautiful?
35
128536
1625
02:29
Well, the forests that we see today
36
137877
2239
02:33
look nothing like the forests
of 100 or 150 years ago.
of 100 or 150 years ago.
37
141108
5423
02:39
Thankfully, panoramic photos
were taken in the 1930s
were taken in the 1930s
38
147318
3663
02:43
from thousands of western
mountaintop lookouts,
mountaintop lookouts,
39
151005
3888
02:46
and they show a fair approximation
40
154917
2439
02:49
of the forest that we inherited.
41
157380
1844
02:52
The best word to describe
these forests of old is "patchy."
these forests of old is "patchy."
42
160441
4117
02:57
The historical forest landscape
was this constantly evolving patchwork
was this constantly evolving patchwork
43
165303
3998
03:01
of open and closed
canopy forests of all ages,
canopy forests of all ages,
44
169325
3759
03:05
and there was so much evidence of fire.
45
173108
3492
03:09
And most fires were pretty small
by today's standards.
by today's standards.
46
177759
3708
03:14
And it's important to understand
that this landscape was open,
that this landscape was open,
47
182070
4008
03:18
with meadows and open canopy forests,
48
186102
2522
03:20
and it was the grasses of the meadows
49
188648
2276
03:22
and in the grassy understories
of the open forest
of the open forest
50
190948
3472
03:26
that many of the wildfires were carried.
51
194444
2980
03:31
There were other forces at work, too,
shaping this historical patchwork:
shaping this historical patchwork:
52
199797
4062
03:35
for example, topography,
whether a place faces north or south
whether a place faces north or south
53
203883
3820
03:39
or it's on a ridge top
or in a valley bottom;
or in a valley bottom;
54
207727
2698
03:42
elevation, how far up the mountain it is;
55
210449
2845
03:45
and weather, whether a place
gets a lot of snow and rain,
gets a lot of snow and rain,
56
213318
4596
03:49
sunlight and warmth.
57
217938
2048
03:52
These things all worked together
58
220010
3069
03:55
to shape the way the forest grew.
59
223103
1903
03:57
And the way the forest grew
shaped the way fire behaved
shaped the way fire behaved
60
225974
5165
04:03
on the landscape.
61
231163
1348
04:05
There was crosstalk
between the patterns and the processes.
between the patterns and the processes.
62
233431
5249
04:10
You can see the new dry forest.
63
238704
1897
04:12
Trees were open grown
and fairly far apart.
and fairly far apart.
64
240625
3202
04:15
Fires were frequent here,
and when they occurred,
and when they occurred,
65
243851
2445
04:18
they weren't that severe,
66
246320
1578
04:19
while further up the mountain,
67
247922
1430
04:21
in the moist and the cold forests,
68
249376
2123
04:23
trees were more densely grown
and fires were less frequent,
and fires were less frequent,
69
251523
3238
04:26
but when they occurred,
they were quite a bit more severe.
they were quite a bit more severe.
70
254785
3318
04:30
These different forest types,
the environments that they grew in
the environments that they grew in
71
258127
3643
04:33
and fire severity --
they all worked together
they all worked together
72
261794
3063
04:36
to shape this historical patchwork.
73
264881
2648
04:40
And there was so much power
74
268429
3384
04:43
in this patchwork.
75
271837
1503
04:45
It provided a natural mechanism
76
273904
2527
04:48
to resist the spread of future fires
across the landscape.
across the landscape.
77
276455
3549
04:53
Once a patch of forest burned,
78
281002
2146
04:55
it helped to prevent the flow
of fire across the landscape.
of fire across the landscape.
79
283172
3275
04:59
A way to think about it is,
80
287046
1491
05:00
the burned patches
helped the rest of the forest
helped the rest of the forest
81
288561
4563
05:05
to be forest.
82
293148
2028
05:08
Let's add humans to the mix.
83
296677
1851
05:11
For 10,000 years, Native Americans
lived on this landscape,
lived on this landscape,
84
299144
3725
05:14
and they intentionally burned it -- a lot.
85
302893
3533
05:19
They used fire to burn meadows
and to thin certain forests
and to thin certain forests
86
307284
3892
05:23
so they could grow more food.
87
311200
2045
05:25
They used fire to increase graze
88
313269
3005
05:28
for the deer and the elk
and the bison that they hunted.
and the bison that they hunted.
89
316298
3836
05:32
And most importantly, they figured out
90
320158
2513
05:34
if they burned in the spring and the fall,
91
322695
2626
05:37
they could avoid the out-of-control
fires of summer.
fires of summer.
92
325345
3539
05:41
European settlement -- it occurred
much later, in the mid-1800s,
much later, in the mid-1800s,
93
329508
4484
05:46
and by the 1880s, livestock
grazing was in high gear.
grazing was in high gear.
94
334016
4275
05:50
I mean, if you think about it,
the cattle and the sheep ate the grasses
the cattle and the sheep ate the grasses
95
338315
3781
05:54
which had been the conveyer belt
for the historical fires,
for the historical fires,
96
342120
4041
05:58
and this prevented once-frequent fires
from thinning out trees
from thinning out trees
97
346185
4094
06:02
and burning up dead wood.
98
350303
1621
06:04
Later came roads and railroads,
and they acted as potent firebreaks,
and they acted as potent firebreaks,
99
352634
5079
06:09
interrupting further the flow of fire
across this landscape.
across this landscape.
100
357737
3972
06:13
And then something happened
which caused a sudden pivot
which caused a sudden pivot
101
361733
3860
06:17
in our society.
102
365617
1421
06:19
In 1910, we had a huge wildfire.
103
367489
4073
06:23
It was the size
of the state of Connecticut.
of the state of Connecticut.
104
371586
2716
06:27
We called it "the Big Burn."
105
375275
2640
06:29
It stretched from eastern Washington
to western Montana,
to western Montana,
106
377939
3949
06:33
and it burned, in a few days,
three million acres,
three million acres,
107
381912
3683
06:37
devoured several towns,
and it killed 87 people.
and it killed 87 people.
108
385619
4461
06:42
Most of them were firefighters.
109
390104
1749
06:45
Because of the Big Burn, wildfire
became public enemy number one,
became public enemy number one,
110
393178
3983
06:49
and this would shape the way
that we would think about wildfire
that we would think about wildfire
111
397185
3421
06:52
in our society
112
400630
1281
06:53
for the next hundred years.
113
401935
1831
06:56
Thereafter, the Forest Service,
just five years young at the time,
just five years young at the time,
114
404880
3431
07:00
was tasked with the responsibility
of putting out all wildfires
of putting out all wildfires
115
408335
5132
07:05
on 193 million acres of public lands,
116
413491
3542
07:09
and they took this responsibility
117
417057
1940
07:11
very seriously.
118
419021
1163
07:12
They developed this unequaled
ability to put fires out,
ability to put fires out,
119
420872
3950
07:16
and they put out 95 to 98 percent
120
424846
3252
07:20
of all fires every single year in the US.
121
428122
4974
07:25
And from this point on,
it was now fire suppression
it was now fire suppression
122
433120
3402
07:29
and not wildfires
123
437387
1530
07:30
that would become a prime
shaper of our forests.
shaper of our forests.
124
438941
3986
07:35
After World War II, timber harvesting
got going in the west,
got going in the west,
125
443943
3500
07:39
and the logging removed
the large and the old trees.
the large and the old trees.
126
447467
3123
07:42
These were survivors
of centuries of wildfires.
of centuries of wildfires.
127
450614
5281
07:47
And the forest filled in.
128
455919
1932
07:49
Thin-barked, fire-sensitive
small trees filled in the gaps,
small trees filled in the gaps,
129
457875
4921
07:54
and our forests became dense,
with trees so layered and close together
with trees so layered and close together
130
462820
5946
08:00
that they were touching each other.
131
468790
1982
08:03
So fires were unintentionally blocked
by roads and railroads,
by roads and railroads,
132
471357
3918
08:07
the cattle and sheep ate the grass,
133
475299
2435
08:09
then along comes fire suppression
and logging, removing the big trees,
and logging, removing the big trees,
134
477758
4320
08:14
and you know what happened?
135
482102
1325
08:15
All these factors worked together
136
483451
2254
08:17
to allow the forest to fill in,
137
485729
2885
08:20
creating what I call
the current epidemic of trees.
the current epidemic of trees.
138
488638
3979
08:25
(Laughter)
139
493163
1983
08:28
Go figure.
140
496678
1176
08:29
(Laughter)
141
497878
1047
08:30
More trees than the landscape can support.
142
498949
3596
08:35
So when you compare what forests
looked like 100 years ago and today,
looked like 100 years ago and today,
143
503506
4760
08:40
the change is actually remarkable.
144
508290
2486
08:42
Notice how the patchwork has filled in.
145
510800
2410
08:45
Dry south slopes --
146
513234
1548
08:46
they're now covered with trees.
147
514806
2293
08:49
A patchwork that was once
sculptured by mostly small
sculptured by mostly small
148
517843
2979
08:52
and sort of medium-sized fires
149
520846
1758
08:54
has filled in.
150
522628
1493
08:56
Do you see the blanket of trees?
151
524145
1988
08:58
After just 150 years,
152
526679
2271
09:00
we have a dense carpet of forest.
153
528974
2557
09:03
But there's more.
154
531555
1733
09:05
Because trees are growing
so close together,
so close together,
155
533312
2955
09:08
and because tree species,
tree sizes and ages
tree sizes and ages
156
536291
3328
09:11
are so similar across large areas,
157
539643
3647
09:15
fires not only move easily
from acre to acre,
from acre to acre,
158
543314
3027
09:18
but now, so do diseases
and insect outbreaks,
and insect outbreaks,
159
546365
4097
09:23
which are killing or reducing the vitality
160
551896
3328
09:27
of really large sections of forest now.
161
555248
2797
09:30
And after a century without fire,
162
558488
2859
09:33
dead branches and downed trees
on the forest floor,
on the forest floor,
163
561371
3579
09:36
they're at powder-keg levels.
164
564974
2027
09:39
What's more, our summers
are getting hotter
are getting hotter
165
567956
2625
09:42
and they're getting drier
166
570605
2155
09:44
and they're getting windier.
167
572784
1822
09:47
And the fire season is now
40 to 80 days longer each year.
40 to 80 days longer each year.
168
575163
5493
09:53
Because of this,
climatologists are predicting
climatologists are predicting
169
581168
2500
09:55
that the area burned since 2000
170
583692
3220
09:58
will double or triple
171
586936
2785
10:01
in the next three decades.
172
589745
1904
10:05
And we're building houses
in the middle of this.
in the middle of this.
173
593015
3374
10:08
Two recently published studies tell us
174
596413
2109
10:10
that more than 60 percent
of all new housing starts are being built
of all new housing starts are being built
175
598546
4537
10:15
in this flammable and dangerous mess.
176
603107
2618
10:19
So when we do get a fire,
177
607145
1842
10:21
large areas can literally go up in smoke.
178
609722
4050
10:28
How do you feel now
179
616363
1585
10:31
about the forest image
180
619580
1691
10:34
that I first showed you?
181
622070
1679
10:35
It scares the heck out of me.
182
623773
1949
10:39
So what do we do?
183
627729
1390
10:42
We need to restore
the power of the patchwork.
the power of the patchwork.
184
630010
3510
10:45
We need to put the right kind of fire
185
633544
3149
10:48
back into the system again.
186
636717
1902
10:50
It's how we can resize
the severity of many of our future fires.
the severity of many of our future fires.
187
638643
6162
10:57
And the silver lining is
that we have tools
that we have tools
188
645277
2469
10:59
and we have know-how to do this.
189
647770
2474
11:02
Let's look at some of the tools.
190
650268
2139
11:04
We can use prescribed burning
to intentionally thin out trees
to intentionally thin out trees
191
652431
4767
11:09
and burn up dead fuels.
192
657222
1826
11:11
We do this to systematically
reduce them and keep them reduced.
reduce them and keep them reduced.
193
659740
4089
11:16
And what is that going to do?
194
664785
1382
11:18
It's going to create already-burned
patches on the landscape
patches on the landscape
195
666191
2874
11:21
that will resist the flow of future fires.
196
669089
2872
11:24
We can combine mechanical thinning
with some of these treatments
with some of these treatments
197
672389
3312
11:27
where it's appropriate to do so,
198
675725
1691
11:29
and capture some commercial value
199
677440
1774
11:31
and perhaps underwrite
some of these treatments,
some of these treatments,
200
679238
2931
11:34
especially around urban areas.
201
682193
2549
11:36
And the best news of all
is that prescribed burning produces
is that prescribed burning produces
202
684766
3231
11:40
so much less smoke than wildfires do.
203
688021
3656
11:43
It's not even close.
204
691701
1349
11:45
But there's a hitch:
205
693074
1227
11:46
prescribed burning smoke is currently
regulated under air quality rules
regulated under air quality rules
206
694962
4989
11:51
as an avoidable nuisance.
207
699975
1935
11:54
But wildfire smoke?
208
702557
1681
11:56
It simply gets a pass.
209
704262
2042
12:00
Makes sense, doesn't it? (Laughs)
210
708153
2565
12:02
So you know what happens?
211
710742
1275
12:04
We do far too little prescribed burning,
212
712041
3247
12:07
and we continually eat smoke
in the summers
in the summers
213
715312
3811
12:11
from megafires.
214
719147
1401
12:12
We all need to work together
to get this changed.
to get this changed.
215
720572
3665
12:16
And finally, there's managed wildfires.
216
724711
1961
12:18
Instead of putting all the fires out,
217
726696
2627
12:21
we need to put some of them back to work
218
729903
2529
12:24
thinning forests and reducing dead fuels.
219
732456
2991
12:28
We can herd them around the landscape
220
736005
2667
12:30
when it's appropriate to do so
221
738696
1913
12:32
to help restore the power
of the patchwork.
of the patchwork.
222
740633
3903
12:38
And as you've probably figured out by now,
223
746623
3739
12:42
this is actually a social problem.
224
750386
2206
12:44
It's got ecological
and climate explanations,
and climate explanations,
225
752616
2983
12:47
but it's a social problem,
and it will take us humans to solve it.
and it will take us humans to solve it.
226
755623
4696
12:53
Public support for these tools is poor.
227
761026
2432
12:55
Prescribed burning and managed wildfires
are not well-supported.
are not well-supported.
228
763482
3682
12:59
We actually all simply want fires
to magically go away
to magically go away
229
767188
4648
13:04
and take that pesky smoke
with them, don't we?
with them, don't we?
230
772455
3215
13:09
But there is no future
without lots of fire and lots of smoke.
without lots of fire and lots of smoke.
231
777122
5028
13:14
That option is actually not on the table.
232
782174
2579
13:19
Until we, the owners of public lands,
make it our high priority
make it our high priority
233
787038
5181
13:24
to do something about
the current situation,
the current situation,
234
792243
2713
13:28
we're going to experience
continued losses to megafires.
continued losses to megafires.
235
796002
3621
13:31
So it's up to us.
236
799647
1517
13:33
We can spread this message
to our lawmakers,
to our lawmakers,
237
801569
2719
13:36
folks who can help us manage our fires
238
804312
3439
13:40
and our forests.
239
808265
1872
13:45
If we're unsuccessful,
240
813680
1822
13:49
where will you go to play
241
817190
2006
13:52
when your favorite places
are burned black?
are burned black?
242
820140
2662
13:57
Where will you go
243
825096
1434
13:59
to breathe deep
244
827298
1464
14:02
and slow?
245
830052
1323
14:04
Thank you.
246
832080
1174
14:05
(Applause)
247
833278
4011
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Hessburg - Research ecologistPaul Hessburg studies very large forest landscapes and what makes them tick.
Why you should listen
Paul Hessburg is a research ecologist who builds models of historical and modern era conditions in large forests and studies what factors make them behave as they do. In fact, much of his research is trying to decipher what is normal. In his research, Hessburg wants to know how the forests we inherited worked before we changed them. What did "natural" look like, and what specifically did we change about naturalness? What's still working well, and what could use a hand down?
Hessburg has spent most of his adult life (35 years) in his dream job. He works for the USDA, Forest Service, at the Pacific Northwest Research Station, where he is stationed at a field laboratory in Wenatchee, WA, US. That's located about five blocks just east of heaven, he says. He has a doctorate in Forest Pathology from Oregon State University, and he has been working in forestry for 40 years. He's also an Affiliate Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
In 2017, Hessburg was awarded his Research Station's Distinguished Scientist Award, and he will be awarded his Agencies' Distinguished Scientist Award for 2017, in February of 2018.
Over the last two years, Paul has traveled and spoken to over 100 western US communities about the new era of megafires and what we can do about it. As he says, "Unless we change a few of our forest and fire management habits in the US, we will lose many more beloved forests; some won’t recover in our lifetime."
Paul Hessburg | Speaker | TED.com