ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Allan Savory - Grassland ecosystem pioneer
Allan Savory works to promote holistic management in the grasslands of the world.

Why you should listen

Desertification of the world's grasslands, Allan Savory suggests, is the immediate cause of poverty, social breakdown, violence, cultural genocide -- and a significent contribution to climate change. In the 1960s, while working in Africa on the interrelated problems of increasing poverty and disappearing wildlife, Savory made a significant breakthrough in understanding the degradation and desertification of grassland ecosystems. After decades of study and collaboration, thousands of managers of land, livestock and wildlife on five continents today follow the methodology he calls "Holistic Management."

In 1992, Savory and his wife, Jody Butterfield, formed the Africa Centre for Holistic Management in Zimbabwe, a learning site for people all over Africa. In 2010, the Centre won the Buckminster Fuller Challenge for its work in reversing desertification. In that same year he and his wife, with others, founded the Savory Institute in Boulder, Colorado, to promote large-scale restoration of the world's grasslands.

Intrigued by this talk? Read Savory's papers and other publications »

More profile about the speaker
Allan Savory | Speaker | TED.com
TED2013

Allan Savory: How to fight desertification and reverse climate change

艾倫·薩弗瑞:如何綠化全球沙漠及反轉氣候變遷

Filmed:
6,848,484 views

「沙漠化是形容土地變成沙漠的華麗名詞,」艾倫·薩弗瑞以這句話,開始這段沉穩有力的演講。而令人害怕的是,這現象已發生在全球約三分之二的草原上,不但加速氣候變遷,還造成傳統放牧社群墮落到社會混亂。薩弗瑞投入畢生精力以停止此現象。他現在相信,同時他的研究也證明,一項驚人的因子,不但能保護草原,甚至能復墾已退化成沙漠的土地。
- Grassland ecosystem pioneer
Allan Savory works to promote holistic management in the grasslands of the world. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:17
The most massive大規模的
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一場最大規模
00:20
tsunami海嘯 perfect完善 storm風暴
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厲害的海嘯風暴
00:25
is bearing軸承 down upon us.
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正臨頭痛擊我們
00:29
This perfect完善 storm風暴
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這場厲害的風暴
00:33
is mounting安裝 a grim嚴峻 reality現實, increasingly日益 grim嚴峻 reality現實,
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正造成嚴峻的事實
日益嚴峻的事實
00:38
and we are facing面對 that reality現實
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而我們面對這事實的態度
00:43
with the full充分 belief信仰
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是全然地相信
00:44
that we can solve解決 our problems問題 with technology技術,
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我們可以用科技解決這個問題
00:47
and that's very understandable可理解.
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而這是非常可以理解的
00:49
Now, this perfect完善 storm風暴 that we are facing面對
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那麼,我們面對的這場厲害風暴
00:53
is the result結果 of our rising升起 population人口,
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是我們人口增加的結果
00:57
rising升起 towards 10 billion十億 people,
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攀升至近百億的人口
00:59
land土地 that is turning車削 to desert沙漠,
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土地變成沙漠
01:02
and, of course課程, climate氣候 change更改.
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當然,還有氣候變遷
01:05
Now there's no question about it at all:
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那麼,無庸置疑的
01:08
we will only solve解決 the problem問題
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我們只能以科技
01:10
of replacing更換 fossil化石 fuels燃料 with technology技術.
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代替石化燃料以解決這個問題
01:13
But fossil化石 fuels燃料, carbon -- coal煤炭 and gas加油站 --
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但石化燃料、碳——煤及石油——
01:16
are by no means手段 the only thing
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絕不是導致氣候變遷的
01:18
that is causing造成 climate氣候 change更改.
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唯一理由
01:22
Desertification荒漠化
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沙漠化
01:24
is a fancy幻想 word for land土地 that is turning車削 to desert沙漠,
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是形容土地變成沙漠的華麗名詞
01:30
and this happens發生 only when
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而這種情況是因為
01:32
we create創建 too much bare ground地面.
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我們造出太多裸露的土地
01:34
There's no other cause原因.
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沒有其他的原因了
01:36
And I intend打算 to focus焦點
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而我刻意要把重點放在
01:38
on most of the world's世界 land土地 that is turning車削 to desert沙漠.
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全球那些變成沙漠的土地
01:43
But I have for you a very simple簡單 message信息
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但我要提出一個非常簡單的方法
01:48
that offers報價 more hope希望 than you can imagine想像.
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能提供更多超乎想像的希望
01:52
We have environments環境
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我們有
01:54
where humidity濕度 is guaranteed保證 throughout始終 the year.
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終年溼氣不斷的環境
01:58
On those, it is almost幾乎 impossible不可能
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在這些地方,幾乎不可能
02:00
to create創建 vast廣大 areas of bare ground地面.
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產生大面積裸露土壤
02:03
No matter what you do, nature性質 covers蓋子 it up so quickly很快.
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無論你怎麼做
大自然都能快速覆蓋它
02:07
And we have environments環境
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而我們也有這樣的環境
02:08
where we have months個月 of humidity濕度
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是我們有幾個月的濕氣
02:11
followed其次 by months個月 of dryness乾燥,
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然後接著是好幾個月的乾旱
02:13
and that is where desertification荒漠化 is occurring發生.
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而這就是沙漠化發生之處
02:16
Fortunately幸好, with space空間 technology技術 now,
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幸運的是,現在因著太空科技
02:18
we can look at it from space空間,
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我們可以從太空觀察它
02:20
and when we do, you can see the proportions比例 fairly相當 well.
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如此做,我們相當能清楚地看見比例
02:24
Generally通常, what you see in green綠色
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一般來說,你所見綠色之處
02:26
is not desertifying沙化,
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就是沒有沙漠化的地方
02:28
and what you see in brown棕色 is,
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棕色處則是發生沙漠化的地方
02:30
and these are by far the greatest最大 areas of the Earth地球.
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這些是迄今世上最大的幾處
02:35
About two thirds三分之二, I would guess猜測, of the world世界 is desertifying沙化.
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我猜,大約三分之二的
全球土地正經歷沙漠化
02:39
I took this picture圖片 in the TihamahTihamah Desert沙漠
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我在提哈馬沙漠拍了這張照片
02:42
while 25 millimeters毫米 -- that's an inch英寸 of rain -- was falling落下.
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當時降雨量為25公釐
大約是一英寸的雨量
02:46
Think of it in terms條款 of drums of water,
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以汽油桶裝水來想像一下
02:49
each containing 200 liters.
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每桶可裝二百公升的水
02:51
Over 1,000 drums of water fell下跌 on every一切 hectare公頃
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那天,那塊地每公頃上
02:56
of that land土地 that day.
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降下了超過一千桶的水
02:59
The next下一個 day, the land土地 looked看著 like this.
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但隔天,那塊地看起來變成這樣
03:01
Where had that water gone走了?
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那些水都去了哪裡?
03:04
Some of it ran off as flooding洪水,
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有些變成了溢流跑掉了
03:06
but most of the water that soaked浸泡 into the soil
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但大部分浸入土裡的水
03:09
simply只是 evaporated蒸發 out again,
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就只是再蒸發掉了
03:12
exactly究竟 as it does in your garden花園
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完全就像你家花園的情況一樣
03:14
if you leave離開 the soil uncovered裸露.
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如果你讓花園土壤裸露
03:17
Now, because the fate命運 of water and carbon
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那麼,因為水及碳的循環
03:20
are tied to soil organic有機 matter,
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與土壤有機質息息相關
03:24
when we damage損傷 soils土壤, you give off carbon.
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當我們破壞了土壤,你就釋放了碳
03:28
Carbon goes back to the atmosphere大氣層.
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碳會回到大氣層
03:31
Now you're told over and over, repeatedly反复,
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你一遍又一遍地聽到人再三地說
03:35
that desertification荒漠化 is only occurring發生
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沙漠化只能發生在
03:38
in arid乾旱 and semi-arid半乾旱 areas of the world世界,
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地球的乾旱及半乾旱氣候區
03:42
and that tall grasslands草原 like this one
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而像這樣的高草地
03:45
in high rainfall雨量 are of no consequence後果.
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因降雨量高,不會發生這現象
03:49
But if you do not look at grasslands草原 but look down into them,
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但是如果你不看其上之草
只看其下的土壤
03:54
you find that most of the soil in that grassland草原
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你會發現你剛剛所見的草原
03:56
that you've just seen看到 is bare and covered覆蓋 with a crust脆皮 of algae藻類,
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其土壤都裸露並被苔原覆蓋
04:01
leading領導 to increased增加 runoff徑流 and evaporation蒸發.
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造成逕流增加及水分蒸發
04:04
That is the cancer癌症 of desertification荒漠化
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那就是我們未能早期發現的
04:08
that we do not recognize認識 till直到 its terminal終奌站 form形成.
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沙漠化惡瘤,直到它已惡化到末期
04:12
Now we know that desertification荒漠化 is caused造成 by livestock家畜,
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現在我們知道沙漠化是因家畜造成
04:18
mostly大多 cattle黃牛, sheep and goats山羊,
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大部分是養牛、綿羊及山羊
04:20
overgrazing過度放牧 the plants植物,
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過度放牧造成植被無法復原
04:23
leaving離開 the soil bare and giving off methane甲烷.
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使得土壤裸露並釋放甲烷
04:27
Almost幾乎 everybody每個人 knows知道 this,
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幾乎大家都知道這個現象
04:30
from nobel諾貝爾 laureates獲獎者 to golf高爾夫球 caddies球童,
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從諾貝爾獎得主到高爾夫球桿弟
04:32
or was taught it, as I was.
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或者至少你被教導過,像我一樣
04:35
Now, the environments環境 like you see here,
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你在這張圖看到的
04:39
dusty塵土飛揚 environments環境 in Africa非洲 where I grew成長 up,
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塵土飛揚的環境,那是我的家鄉非洲
04:41
and I loved喜愛 wildlife野生動物,
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我很愛野生動物
04:44
and so I grew成長 up hating livestock家畜
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所以我長大後非常恨惡家畜
04:48
because of the damage損傷 they were doing.
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因為牠們造成許多破壞
04:50
And then my university大學 education教育 as an ecologist生態學家
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我的大學教育讓我成為生物學者
04:53
reinforced加強 my beliefs信仰.
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更加堅固了我的信仰
04:56
Well, I have news新聞 for you.
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但是,我要告訴你
05:01
We were once一旦 just as certain某些
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我們曾經如此堅信
05:05
that the world世界 was flat平面.
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世界是平的
05:07
We were wrong錯誤 then, and we are wrong錯誤 again.
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然後發現我們錯了
現在我們發現我們又錯了
05:11
And I want to invite邀請 you now
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我要邀請你
05:13
to come along沿 on my journey旅程 of reeducation再教育 and discovery發現.
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與我一同走過我被
再教育及重新發現的旅程
05:19
When I was a young年輕 man,
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當我還很年輕,在非洲
05:22
a young年輕 biologist生物學家 in Africa非洲,
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還是一個沒經驗的生物學家時
05:25
I was involved參與 in setting設置 aside在旁邊 marvelous奇妙 areas
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我參與一項計畫,要把幾片壯麗的土地
05:29
as future未來 national國民 parks公園.
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預留成未來的國家公園
05:32
Now no sooner — this was in the 1950s —
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沒多久──這是1950年代
05:35
and no sooner did we remove去掉 the hunting狩獵,
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沒多久,我們就把一群以狩獵
05:38
drum-beating鼓跳動 people to protect保護 the animals動物,
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敲鼓為生的人移居以保護動物
05:42
than the land土地 began開始 to deteriorate惡化,
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然後這塊地的情況就開始惡化
05:44
as you see in this park公園 that we formed形成.
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就像你看到的這個
我們弄出來的公園一樣
05:48
Now, no livestock家畜 were involved參與,
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那麼,雖然沒有家畜了
05:50
but suspecting懷疑 that we had too many許多 elephants大象 now,
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但我們懷疑有太多大象
05:54
I did the research研究 and I proved證實 we had too many許多,
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我做了個研究證明的確如此
05:58
and I recommended推薦的 that we would have to reduce減少 their numbers數字
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所以我建議我們要降低其數目
06:02
and bring帶來 them down to a level水平 that the land土地 could sustain支持.
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且要降到這片土地
可以自給自足的水平
06:06
Now, that was a terrible可怕 decision決定 for me to have to make,
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對我而言
那是個不得不的可怕決定
06:10
and it was political政治 dynamite炸藥, frankly坦率地說.
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而老實說也是政治炸彈
06:12
So our government政府 formed形成 a team球隊 of experts專家
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所以我們的政府組了一個專家團隊
06:16
to evaluate評估 my research研究.
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來評估我的研究
06:18
They did. They agreed約定 with me,
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他們的確做了,也與我持相同意見
06:21
and over the following以下 years年份,
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所以接下來幾年
06:23
we shot射擊 40,000 elephants大象 to try to stop the damage損傷.
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我們射殺了四萬頭大象
試圖停止土地破壞
06:28
And it got worse更差, not better.
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然而事情變得更糟,沒有更好
06:32
Loving elephants大象 as I do,
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我是如此愛著大象
06:35
that was the saddest最可悲 and greatest最大 blunder錯誤 of my life,
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那真是我一生中最難過
也是最大的失誤
06:38
and I will carry攜帶 that to my grave.
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終其一生我都將懷著悔恨
06:41
One good thing did come out of it.
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但痛定思痛,還是有件好事
06:43
It made製作 me absolutely絕對 determined決心
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它讓我矢志不移
06:47
to devote奉獻 my life to finding發現 solutions解決方案.
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要畢生投入以找出解決方案
06:52
When I came來了 to the United聯合的 States狀態, I got a shock休克,
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當我到美國時我很震驚
06:56
to find national國民 parks公園 like this one
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發現像這樣的國家公園
06:59
desertifying沙化 as badly as anything in Africa非洲.
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其沙漠化的程度就跟非洲的一樣糟
07:03
And there'd這紅色 been no livestock家畜 on this land土地
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而且這片土地已超過
07:05
for over 70 years年份.
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70年的時間沒有家畜
07:08
And I found發現 that American美國 scientists科學家們
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而且我發現美國科學家
07:10
had no explanation說明 for this
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除了說它是乾旱及自然現象外
07:13
except that it is arid乾旱 and natural自然.
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對此沒有任何解釋
07:16
So I then began開始 looking
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所以我開始在
07:19
at all the research研究 plots地塊 I could
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我能找到的
07:22
over the whole整個 of the Western西 United聯合的 States狀態
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針對美西的研究報告中尋找
07:25
where cattle黃牛 had been removed去除
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牛隻遷移
07:27
to prove證明 that it would stop desertification荒漠化,
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真的可以停止沙漠化的證明
07:30
but I found發現 the opposite對面,
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但我發現的是完全相反的證明
07:32
as we see on this research研究 station,
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如同我們在這個研究站看到的
07:35
where this grassland草原 that was green綠色 in 1961,
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1961年這片草地還是綠油油一片
07:38
by 2002 had changed to that situation情況.
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但到了2002年已經變成這樣
07:43
And the authors作者 of the position位置 paper on climate氣候 change更改
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而寫這篇氣候變遷意見書的作者
07:48
from which哪一個 I obtained獲得 these pictures圖片
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我就是從那裏拿到這些照片
07:51
attribute屬性 this change更改 to "unknown未知 processes流程."
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把此改變歸因於未知現象
07:57
Clearly明確地, we have never understood了解
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很明顯我們並不了解
08:01
what is causing造成 desertification荒漠化,
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沙漠化的原因
08:03
which哪一個 has destroyed銷毀 many許多 civilizations文明
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而此現象已經毀滅了許多文明
08:06
and now threatens威脅 us globally全球.
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而現在正對我們產生全球性威脅
08:09
We have never understood了解 it.
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我們從來沒有了解過這件事
08:11
Take one square廣場 meter儀表 of soil
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把一平方公尺的土壤
08:14
and make it bare like this is down here,
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像這樣光禿禿攤平在這裡
08:16
and I promise諾言 you, you will find it much colder更冷 at dawn黎明
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我保證你會發現,這片土與僅由
08:19
and much hotter at midday正午
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枯枝落葉覆蓋住的同樣土壤
08:22
than that same相同 piece of ground地面 if it's just covered覆蓋 with litter,
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在破曉時冷得多,在日正當中時熱得多
08:26
plant litter.
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只要枯枝落葉就好
08:27
You have changed the microclimate小氣候.
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你就改變了微氣候
08:31
Now, by the time you are doing that
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所以,當你這麼做
08:33
and increasing增加 greatly非常 the percentage百分比 of bare ground地面
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並在超過全球一半的土地
08:38
on more than half the world's世界 land土地,
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大幅增加裸露地面的百分比時
08:42
you are changing改變 macroclimate大氣候.
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你就在改變總體氣候
08:45
But we have just simply只是 not understood了解
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但我們就是不了解
08:48
why was it beginning開始 to happen發生 10,000 years年份 ago?
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為什麼這現象於一萬年前開始發生?
08:52
Why has it accelerated加速 lately最近?
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為什麼最近大幅加快?
08:55
We had no understanding理解 of that.
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我們對其一無所知
08:57
What we had failed失敗 to understand理解
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我們並沒有了解到
09:00
was that these seasonal時令的 humidity濕度 environments環境 of the world世界,
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這些隨季節改變濕度的環境
09:04
the soil and the vegetation植被
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其土壤及植被的發展
09:07
developed發達 with very large numbers數字 of grazing放牧 animals動物,
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與非常大數目的放牧有關
09:13
and that these grazing放牧 animals動物
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也沒有了解到這些放牧動物
09:15
developed發達 with ferocious兇猛 pack-hunting包,狩獵 predators大鱷.
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與兇猛的群體狩獵掠食動物息息相關
09:21
Now, the main主要 defense防禦 against反對 pack-hunting包,狩獵 predators大鱷
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那麼,要對抗群體狩獵掠食
動物的主要方法
09:24
is to get into herds牛群,
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就是集結成群
09:27
and the larger the herd放牧, the safer更安全 the individuals個人.
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而且群體愈大,個體就愈安全
09:31
Now, large herds牛群 dung and urinate排尿 all over their own擁有 food餐飲,
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大群動物在其食物上排便及尿
09:36
and they have to keep moving移動,
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牠們還必須遷徙
09:39
and it was that movement運動
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而也就是這個遷徙
09:41
that prevented防止 the overgrazing過度放牧 of plants植物,
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避免了過度放牧
09:43
while the periodic定期 trampling
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而時時遷徙
09:46
ensured確保 good cover of the soil,
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確保土壤覆蓋良好
09:48
as we see where a herd放牧 has passed通過.
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就像我們看到一群動物走過後的樣子
09:51
This picture圖片 is a typical典型 seasonal時令的 grassland草原.
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這張照片是典型的季節性草原
09:58
It has just come through通過 four months個月 of rain,
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它剛剛經歷了四個月的雨季
10:00
and it's now going into eight months個月 of dry season季節.
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現在正進入為期八個月的乾季
10:04
And watch the change更改 as it goes into this long dry season季節.
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請注意看它進入長時間乾季後的改變
10:08
Now, all of that grass you see aboveground地上
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現在,所有長在地上的草
10:11
has to decay衰變 biologically生物
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在下個生長期前
10:14
before the next下一個 growing生長 season季節, and if it doesn't,
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都要腐爛,要不然
10:18
the grassland草原 and the soil begin開始 to die.
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整片草原及土壤就會開始死亡
10:22
Now, if it does not decay衰變 biologically生物,
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那麼,如果它沒有腐爛
10:25
it shifts轉變 to oxidation氧化, which哪一個 is a very slow process處理,
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就會轉變成氧化作用
而這是非常慢的過程
10:30
and this smothers窒息 and kills殺死 grasses,
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而這會使草窒息死亡
10:33
leading領導 to a shift轉移 to woody木本 vegetation植被
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使原本的草地轉變成木本植被
10:37
and bare soil, releasing釋放 carbon.
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及裸露的土壤,釋放碳
10:40
To prevent避免 that, we have traditionally傳統 used fire.
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要避免此現象
傳統的方法是使用火燒
10:45
But fire also leaves樹葉 the soil bare, releasing釋放 carbon,
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但火一樣會使土地裸露,釋放碳
10:51
and worse更差 than that,
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且更糟的是
10:53
burning燃燒 one hectare公頃 of grassland草原
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每燒一公頃的草地
10:56
gives off more, and more damaging有害, pollutants污染物
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比六千輛車所造成的汙染跟破壞,
10:59
than 6,000 cars汽車.
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都大上許多
11:02
And we are burning燃燒 in Africa非洲, every一切 single year,
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但我們卻每年都在非洲
11:06
more than one billion十億 hectares公頃 of grasslands草原,
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燒掉超過十億公頃的草原
11:11
and almost幾乎 nobody沒有人 is talking about it.
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卻幾乎沒人在意
11:15
We justify辯解 the burning燃燒, as scientists科學家們,
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身為科學家,我們辯稱
11:19
because it does remove去掉 the dead material材料
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燃燒能移除已死的物質
11:22
and it allows允許 the plants植物 to grow增長.
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讓植物能夠生長
11:25
Now, looking at this grassland草原 of ours我們的 that has gone走了 dry,
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現在,眼看著我們這片草原變成荒蕪
11:28
what could we do to keep that healthy健康?
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到底我們能要怎麼做
才能讓它保持健康?
11:31
And bear in mind心神, I'm talking of most of the world's世界 land土地 now.
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請記住,我現在談的是
全球大部分的土地
11:34
Okay? We cannot不能 reduce減少 animal動物 numbers數字 to rest休息 it more
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好嗎?我們不能降低動物
數目以復原更多土地
11:39
without causing造成 desertification荒漠化 and climate氣候 change更改.
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卻不造成沙漠化及氣候變遷
11:42
We cannot不能 burn燒傷 it without causing造成
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我們無法燒了它
11:46
desertification荒漠化 and climate氣候 change更改.
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卻不造成沙漠化及氣候變遷
11:48
What are we going to do?
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我們到底要怎麼做?
11:54
There is only one option選項,
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只有一個選擇
11:56
I'll repeat重複 to you, only one option選項
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我再說一次,只有一個選擇
11:59
left to climatologists氣象學 and scientists科學家們,
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留給氣象學家及科學家
12:02
and that is to do the unthinkable不可思議的,
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就是要做匪夷所思之事
12:05
and to use livestock家畜,
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要用蓄養牲畜
12:07
bunched束身 and moving移動,
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要一群一群養,還要遷徙
12:10
as a proxy代理 for former前任的 herds牛群 and predators大鱷,
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就像之前牧群及掠食者一樣
12:14
and mimic模仿者 nature性質.
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模仿大自然的運作
12:16
There is no other alternative替代 left to mankind人類.
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我們沒有其他替代方案了
12:20
So let's do that.
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所以就開始做吧
12:22
So on this bit of grassland草原, we'll do it, but just in the foreground前景.
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所以我們就在這塊草原上實行
但僅限在草原前端
12:26
We'll impact碰撞 it very heavily嚴重 with cattle黃牛 to mimic模仿者 nature性質,
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我們放置牲畜
倣效自然界運作
12:29
and we've我們已經 doneDONE so, and look at that.
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而我們的確也做到了,看到沒
12:32
All of that grass is now covering覆蓋 the soil
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現在滿滿的草覆蓋著這塊土壤
12:35
as dung, urine尿 and litter or mulch護根,
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因為有糞、尿、枯枝落葉及覆蓋物
12:39
as every一切 one of the gardeners園丁 amongst其中包括 you would understand理解,
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就像在座的園藝愛好者都能了解這個現象
12:43
and that soil is ready準備 to absorb吸收 and hold保持 the rain,
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這片土壤已準備就緒
可以吸收保留雨水
12:47
to store商店 carbon, and to break打破 down methane甲烷.
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可以儲存碳,可以分解甲烷
12:52
And we did that,
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我們這樣做
12:54
without using運用 fire to damage損傷 the soil,
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不需用火破壞土壤
12:57
and the plants植物 are free自由 to grow增長.
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而植物可以自由生長
13:00
When I first realized實現
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當我第一次了解到
13:02
that we had no option選項 as scientists科學家們
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身為科學家,我們別無選擇
13:05
but to use much-vilified備受詆毀 livestock家畜
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只能用惡名昭彰的家畜
13:08
to address地址 climate氣候 change更改 and desertification荒漠化,
235
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來解釋氣候變遷及沙漠化時
13:13
I was faced面對 with a real真實 dilemma困境.
236
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我面對著一個真正的兩難問題
13:15
How were we to do it?
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我們是怎麼搞成這樣的?
13:17
We'd星期三 had 10,000 years年份 of extremely非常 knowledgeable懂行 pastoralists牧民
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我們在過去一萬年
有非常有知識的放牧者
13:21
bunching集束 and moving移動 their animals動物,
239
785917
1948
群集趕放動物
13:23
but they had created創建 the great manmade人造 deserts沙漠 of the world世界.
240
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3667
但造成了世上大規模的人造沙漠
13:27
Then we'd星期三 had 100 years年份 of modern現代 rain science科學,
241
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3879
然後我們在僅一百年的
先進降雨科學發展下
13:31
and that had accelerated加速 desertification荒漠化,
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卻加速了沙漠化的發展
13:34
as we first discovered發現 in Africa非洲
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2173
就像我們首先在非洲發現的
13:36
and then confirmed確認 in the United聯合的 States狀態,
244
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然後在美國也得到確認
13:39
and as you see in this picture圖片
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就如同你在這張照片看到的
13:41
of land土地 managed管理 by the federal聯邦 government政府.
246
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由聯邦政府管理的土地一樣
13:44
Clearly明確地 more was needed需要
247
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1901
很明顯地除了集結趕放動物
13:46
than bunching集束 and moving移動 the animals動物,
248
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我們需要做更多
13:48
and humans人類, over thousands數千 of years年份,
249
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而人類在過去數千年
13:52
had never been able能夠 to deal合同 with nature's大自然 complexity複雜.
250
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從未解決過什麼大自然的複雜問題
13:56
But we biologists生物學家 and ecologists生態學家
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但我們生物學及生態學家
13:59
had never tackled解決 anything as complex複雜 as this.
252
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也從未應付過像這樣複雜的問題
14:02
So rather than reinvent重塑 the wheel,
253
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所以與其閉門造車
14:04
I began開始 studying研究 other professions職業 to see if anybody任何人 had.
254
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4136
我開始研究其他領域
看看有沒人有已經有解答
14:08
And I found發現 there were planning規劃 techniques技術
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而我發現的確有一些規劃方法
14:11
that I could take and adapt適應 to our biological生物 need,
256
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3772
是我可以拿來運用在生物學需求上的
14:15
and from those I developed發達 what we call
257
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而從那裡開始,我發展出一套我們稱為
14:17
holistic整體 management管理 and planned計劃 grazing放牧,
258
842002
3310
整體管理規劃放牧法
14:21
a planning規劃 process處理,
259
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1799
一種規劃流程
14:23
and that does address地址 all of nature's大自然 complexity複雜
260
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3695
而這的確解決了自然的複雜問題
14:26
and our social社會, environmental環境的, economic經濟 complexity複雜.
261
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及我們社會、環境及經濟的複雜問題
14:31
Today今天, we have young年輕 women婦女 like this one
262
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今天我們有年輕女士像這位
14:34
teaching教學 villages村莊 in Africa非洲
263
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2368
在非洲村落教導
14:36
how to put their animals動物 together一起 into larger herds牛群,
264
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2936
如何將動物集合成一個大牧群
14:39
plan計劃 their grazing放牧 to mimic模仿者 nature性質,
265
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2704
規劃放牧法以模仿大自然
14:42
and where we have them hold保持 their animals動物 overnight過夜 --
266
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4041
我們也讓他們集結動物在某處過夜
14:46
we run them in a predator-friendly捕食者友好 manner方式,
267
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2259
我們不特別做保護措施讓牠們不受掠食者威脅
14:48
because we have a lot of lands土地, and so on --
268
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2322
因為我們有很多地,諸如此類的
14:51
and where they do this and hold保持 them overnight過夜
269
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2194
在那裡他們放牧並在那裡集結過夜
14:53
to prepare準備 the crop作物 fields領域,
270
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1805
就是為了讓這塊田地準備好
14:55
we are getting得到 very great increases增加 in crop作物 yield產量 as well.
271
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我們也在作物產量上有大幅增加
14:59
Let's look at some results結果.
272
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來看一看結果
15:00
This is land土地 close to land土地 that we manage管理 in Zimbabwe津巴布韋.
273
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這片土地很靠近
我們在辛巴威管理的地
15:05
It has just come through通過 four months個月 of very good rains降雨
274
889173
3544
它才剛剛經歷那年
為期四個月的充沛雨量
15:08
it got that year, and it's going into the long dry season季節.
275
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3510
馬上要進入乾季
15:12
But as you can see, all of that rain, almost幾乎 of all it,
276
896227
3035
但如你所見,幾乎所有的降雨
15:15
has evaporated蒸發 from the soil surface表面.
277
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3107
都從地表蒸發
15:18
Their river is dry despite儘管 the rain just having ended結束,
278
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3802
儘管雨季才剛結束,河流都乾涸了
15:22
and we have 150,000 people
279
906171
3520
而我們有十五萬人
15:25
on almost幾乎 permanent常駐 food餐飲 aid援助.
280
909691
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得永久依靠糧食援助
15:29
Now let's go to our land土地 nearby附近 on the same相同 day,
281
913441
4496
現在來看一看我們
在附近的那塊地,同一天
15:33
with the same相同 rainfall雨量, and look at that.
282
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2840
同樣的降雨量,看哪!
15:36
Our river is flowing流動 and healthy健康 and clean清潔.
283
920777
2705
我們的河水流充沛、乾淨
15:39
It's fine.
284
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2487
非常好
15:41
The production生產 of grass, shrubs灌木, trees樹木, wildlife野生動物,
285
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5318
草、灌木、樹、野生動植物的產量
15:47
everything is now more productive生產的,
286
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2856
每樣東西的產量都更好
15:50
and we have virtually實質上 no fear恐懼 of dry years年份.
287
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4105
我們幾乎不怕旱年
15:54
And we did that by increasing增加 the cattle黃牛 and goats山羊
288
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我們以增加牛羊的量來達到此效果
15:59
400 percent百分,
289
943743
1925
增加四倍
16:01
planning規劃 the grazing放牧 to mimic模仿者 nature性質
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有計劃的放牧以模仿自然
16:04
and integrate整合 them with all the elephants大象, buffalo水牛,
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並與大象、水牛、長頸鹿
16:07
giraffe長頸鹿 and other animals動物 that we have.
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及其它我們有的動物整合在一起
16:10
But before we began開始, our land土地 looked看著 like that.
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但在我們開始計劃前
這塊土地看起來像那樣
16:16
This site現場 was bare and eroding侵蝕 for over 30 years年份
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這地過去三十年不管下多少雨
16:21
regardless而不管 of what rain we got.
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土壤總是光禿禿受侵蝕
16:24
Okay? Watch the marked tree and see the change更改
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懂嗎?看這棵標記的樹及其變化
16:28
as we use livestock家畜 to mimic模仿者 nature性質.
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在我們使用家畜模仿自然後
16:31
This was another另一個 site現場
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這是另一個地方
16:33
where it had been bare and eroding侵蝕,
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也是土壤裸露受侵蝕
16:35
and at the base基礎 of the marked small tree,
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在這棵被標示的小樹的基底
16:38
we had lost丟失 over 30 centimeters公分 of soil. Okay?
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我們流失了超過30公分的土壤,看到嗎?
16:42
And again, watch the change更改
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再一次看看這個改變
16:44
just using運用 livestock家畜 to mimic模仿者 nature性質.
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只是用家畜來模仿自然
16:47
And there are fallen墮落 trees樹木 in there now,
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現在那裡有倒落的樹木
16:49
because the better land土地 is now attracting吸引 elephants大象, etc等等.
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因為改善的土地現在會吸引大象等等
16:54
This land土地 in Mexico墨西哥 was in terrible可怕 condition條件,
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這片位於墨西哥的地原本狀況很糟
16:57
and I've had to mark標記 the hill爬坡道
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而現在我還必須標示
原本的坡地在哪
16:59
because the change更改 is so profound深刻.
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因為這改變實在太深刻了
17:04
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
17:11
I began開始 helping幫助 a family家庭 in the Karoo卡魯 Desert沙漠 in the 1970s
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我於1970年代開始幫助
南非卡魯沙漠的一個家庭
17:16
turn the desert沙漠 that you see on the right there
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把你看到右手邊的這片沙漠
17:19
back to grassland草原,
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轉回成草原
17:21
and thankfully感激地, now their grandchildren孫子 are on the land土地
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值得慶幸的是,現在他們的孫輩
還住在這片土地上
17:24
with hope希望 for the future未來.
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對未來抱持希望
17:26
And look at the amazing驚人 change更改 in this one,
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並且看看這個驚人改變
17:29
where that gully has completely全然 healed癒合
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那片小峽谷已經完全復原了
17:32
using運用 nothing but livestock家畜 mimicking模仿 nature性質,
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沒用別的,就只用了家畜模仿自然
17:36
and once一旦 more, we have the third第三 generation of that family家庭
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而再一次,我們看到
那個家庭的第三代
17:41
on that land土地 with their flag still flying飛行.
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還留在那片土地上
家族的旗子依然飄動
17:44
The vast廣大 grasslands草原 of Patagonia巴塔哥尼亞
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巴塔哥尼亞上廣闊的草原
17:46
are turning車削 to desert沙漠 as you see here.
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正變成沙漠,正如你在這看見的
17:49
The man in the middle中間 is an Argentinian阿根廷人 researcher研究員,
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在中間那位是個阿根廷研究員
17:52
and he has documented記錄 the steady穩定 decline下降 of that land土地
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他記錄了過去數年,因著他們
逐年減少綿羊的數目
17:55
over the years年份 as they kept不停 reducing減少 sheep numbers數字.
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使得那塊地逐步變壞的情況
17:59
They put 25,000 sheep in one flock,
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現在他們集結
二萬五千頭羊成一群
18:04
really mimicking模仿 nature性質 now with planned計劃 grazing放牧,
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真的模仿自然現象,有計劃地放牧
18:08
and they have documented記錄 a 50-percent-百分 increase增加
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然後他們記錄到那塊地第一年的產量
18:12
in the production生產 of the land土地 in the first year.
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增加了百分之五十
18:15
We now have in the violent暴力 Horn喇叭 of Africa非洲
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現在我們在暴力頻繁的非洲之角
18:18
pastoralists牧民 planning規劃 their grazing放牧 to mimic模仿者 nature性質
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有牧民計畫放牧模仿自然
18:22
and openly公然 saying it is the only hope希望 they have
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並公開地說這是他們唯一的希望
18:25
of saving保存 their families家庭 and saving保存 their culture文化.
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能拯救他們的家庭及文化
18:29
Ninety-five九十五 percent百分 of that land土地
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那塊地的95%
18:31
can only feed飼料 people from animals動物.
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只能以動物餵飽人
18:34
I remind提醒 you that I am talking about
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我要提醒各位,我在談論的是
18:36
most of the world's世界 land土地 here that controls控制 our fate命運,
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掌控着我們命運的土地
18:41
including包含 the most violent暴力 region地區 of the world世界,
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包括世界上最暴力的地區
18:44
where only animals動物 can feed飼料 people
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在那裡約95%的土地
18:47
from about 95 percent百分 of the land土地.
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只有靠動物能餵飽人
18:50
What we are doing globally全球 is causing造成 climate氣候 change更改
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我們在全球做的事正造成氣候變遷
18:55
as much as, I believe, fossil化石 fuels燃料,
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我相信就像石化燃料造成的一樣多
18:59
and maybe more than fossil化石 fuels燃料.
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可能比石化燃料還多
19:02
But worse更差 than that, it is causing造成 hunger飢餓, poverty貧窮,
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但更糟的是,這還產生饑荒貧窮
19:06
violence暴力, social社會 breakdown分解 and war戰爭,
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暴力、社會瓦解及戰爭
19:09
and as I am talking to you,
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而就在我對各位演講的這當下
19:11
millions百萬 of men男人, women婦女 and children孩子
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就有數百萬的男人、女人及小孩
19:14
are suffering痛苦 and dying垂死.
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在受苦瀕臨死亡
19:17
And if this continues繼續,
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而如果這現象持續下去
19:19
we are unlikely不會 to be able能夠 to stop the climate氣候 changing改變,
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我們不可能停止氣候變遷
19:23
even after we have eliminated淘汰 the use of fossil化石 fuels燃料.
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即使我們停止使用石化燃料
19:28
I believe I've shown顯示 you how we can work with nature性質
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我相信我已經讓各位看到
我們如何與自然合作
19:32
at very low cost成本
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以非常低的成本
19:35
to reverse相反 all this.
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來扭轉這一切
19:37
We are already已經 doing so
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我們已經在
19:40
on about 15 million百萬 hectares公頃
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約一千五百萬公頃
19:44
on five continents大陸,
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遍佈五大洲的土地上做這件事
19:47
and people who understand理解
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而照那些比我更瞭解
19:48
far more about carbon than I do
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碳循環的人的計算,
19:50
calculate計算 that, for illustrative說明 purposes目的,
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可以清楚地說明
19:53
if we do what I am showing展示 you here,
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如果我們都做了
我展示給大家看的方法
19:56
we can take enough足夠 carbon out of the atmosphere大氣層
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我們就能從大氣層吸收掉碳
20:00
and safely安然 store商店 it in the grassland草原 soils土壤
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而且牢牢固碳在草原土壤中
20:04
for thousands數千 of years年份,
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數千年
20:05
and if we just do that on about half the world's世界 grasslands草原
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而且如果我們能在
全球約半數的草原上
20:10
that I've shown顯示 you,
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實施我展示給大家看的方法
20:12
we can take us back to pre-industrial前工業 levels水平,
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我們就能把排碳量
減低到工業革命前的水準
20:15
while feeding饋送 people.
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同時還能餵飽人群
20:17
I can think of almost幾乎 nothing
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我真的想不出還有什麼
20:20
that offers報價 more hope希望 for our planet行星,
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能比這個給地球
20:23
for your children孩子,
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給大家的孩子
20:25
and their children孩子, and all of humanity人性.
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及他們的孩子,
及所有人類帶來更多希望
20:28
Thank you.
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謝謝
20:31
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
20:40
Thank you. (Applause掌聲)
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謝謝(掌聲)
20:53
Thank you, Chris克里斯.
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謝謝,克里斯
20:55
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: Thank you. I have,
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克里斯·安德森:謝謝。我有——
20:58
and I'm sure everyone大家 here has,
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而且我很確定這裡每個人都
21:00
A) a hundred questions問題, B) wants to hug擁抱 you.
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1)有上百個問題,2)想擁抱你
21:04
I'm just going to ask you one quick question.
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我只要很快問一個問題
21:06
When you first start開始 this and you bring帶來 in a flock of animals動物,
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當你開始做這個,而且你帶了一群動物
21:09
it's desert沙漠. What do they eat? How does that part部分 work?
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這是沙漠!你給牠們吃什麼?這部分怎麼解決?
21:13
How do you start開始?
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你是怎麼開始的?
21:14
Allan艾倫 Savory薩沃: Well, we have doneDONE this for a long time,
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艾倫·薩弗瑞:嗯,我們已經做了很久了
21:15
and the only time we have ever had to provide提供 any feed飼料
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我碰過唯一需要提供飼料的地方是
21:19
is during mine reclamation開墾,
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在礦山復墾時
21:21
where it's 100 percent百分 bare.
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那裡完全沒有草
21:23
But many許多 years年份 ago, we took the worst最差 land土地 in Zimbabwe津巴布韋,
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但很多年前,我們在
辛巴威拿了一塊最糟的地
21:27
where I offered提供 a £5 note注意
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我在那裡提供五英鎊獎金
21:30
in a hundred-mile一百英里 drive駕駛
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給在一百哩車程內
21:32
if somebody could find one grass
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能找到一根草的人
21:35
in a hundred-mile一百英里 drive駕駛,
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在一百哩車程內
21:37
and on that, we trebled三倍 the stocking rate,
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而在那樣的情況,我們翻了三倍放養率
21:39
the number of animals動物, in the first year with no feeding饋送,
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增加三倍的動物數量
在第一年沒有給飼料的狀態下
21:43
just by the movement運動, mimicking模仿 nature性質,
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就只靠趕動物,模仿大自然
21:46
and using運用 a sigmoid乙狀結腸 curve曲線, that principle原理.
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運用「S型曲線」那個理論
21:51
It's a little bit technical技術 to explain說明 here, but just that.
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在這很難解釋,因為有一點技術理論,但就是那樣
21:53
CACA: Well, I would love to -- I mean, this such這樣 an interesting有趣 and important重要 idea理念.
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克:嗯,我很想知道——我是說
這真的是很有意思很重要的概念
21:57
The best最好 people on our blog博客 are going to come and talk to you
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我們部落格最棒的員工會找你談談
21:59
and try and -- I want to get more on this
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還會試一下——我很想知道更多
22:01
that we could share分享 along沿 with the talk.AS: Wonderful精彩.
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我們可以分享更多
艾:沒問題。
22:04
CACA: That is an astonishing驚人 talk, truly an astonishing驚人 talk,
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克:真是非常驚人的演講,真的很驚人
22:08
and I think you heard聽說 that we all are cheering歡呼 you on your way.
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我想你也聽到了,我們都為你起立鼓掌
22:11
Thank you so much.AS: Well, thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Chris克里斯.
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非常謝謝你。
艾:嗯,謝謝,謝謝克里斯。
22:14
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Regina Chu
Reviewed by Sailin Lu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Allan Savory - Grassland ecosystem pioneer
Allan Savory works to promote holistic management in the grasslands of the world.

Why you should listen

Desertification of the world's grasslands, Allan Savory suggests, is the immediate cause of poverty, social breakdown, violence, cultural genocide -- and a significent contribution to climate change. In the 1960s, while working in Africa on the interrelated problems of increasing poverty and disappearing wildlife, Savory made a significant breakthrough in understanding the degradation and desertification of grassland ecosystems. After decades of study and collaboration, thousands of managers of land, livestock and wildlife on five continents today follow the methodology he calls "Holistic Management."

In 1992, Savory and his wife, Jody Butterfield, formed the Africa Centre for Holistic Management in Zimbabwe, a learning site for people all over Africa. In 2010, the Centre won the Buckminster Fuller Challenge for its work in reversing desertification. In that same year he and his wife, with others, founded the Savory Institute in Boulder, Colorado, to promote large-scale restoration of the world's grasslands.

Intrigued by this talk? Read Savory's papers and other publications »

More profile about the speaker
Allan Savory | Speaker | TED.com