ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julia Galef - Writer
Julia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds.

Why you should listen

Julia Galef co-founded the Center for Applied Rationality, a nonprofit organization devoted to helping people improve their reasoning and decision-making, particularly with the aim of addressing global problems. Julia’s background is originally in statistics, and she did social science research at Columbia and Harvard Business Schools for several years before becoming a writer for venues such as Slate, Science, Scientific American and more. For the last six years, Julia has hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast

More profile about the speaker
Julia Galef | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxPSU

Julia Galef: Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong

Julia Galef: 點解你會係自己錯嘅時候,都覺得自己啱

Filmed:
4,082,284 views

檢驗自己理論嘅時候,角度就係一切。你係一個不惜一切防衛自己睇法嘅士兵,定係一個充滿好奇的偵察者?Julia Galef 分析咗呢兩種心態嘅動機,同埋佢哋點樣影響我們對信息嘅理解,順便同大家上埋一堂 19 世紀法國歷史堂。當你嘅信念受到動搖,Julia Galef 就問:「你最想要嘅係咩?係保衛自己嘅觀念,定係睇清楚整個世界?」
- Writer
Julia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So I'd like you to imagine想象 for a moment時刻
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請大家想像下
00:15
that you're a soldier士兵
in the heat of battle戰鬥.
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自己係個打緊仗嘅士兵
00:18
Maybe you're a Roman羅馬 foot隻腳 soldier士兵
or a medieval中世紀 archer射手
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可能係個羅馬步兵
或者係中世紀嘅弓箭手
00:22
or maybe you're a Zulu祖魯文 warrior戰士.
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又或者係祖魯戰士
00:24
Regardless無論 of your time and place地方,
there are some things that are constant係咁.
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無論你身處何時何地
有啲嘢係唔會變嘅
00:28
Your adrenaline腎上腺素 is elevated升高,
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你嘅腎上腺素會升高
00:30
and your actions行動 are stemming堵塞
from these deeply深深 ingrained根深蒂固 reflexes反射,
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你嘅行為,其實根植於
呢啲反射動作之中
00:35
reflexes反射 rooted植根 in a need
to protect保護 yourself自己 and your side一邊
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呢啲用黎保護你自己
00:39
and to defeat the enemy敵人.
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同埋打敗敵人嘅反射動作
00:42
So now, I'd like you to imagine想象
playing a very different不同 role作用,
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所以依家我希望
你哋諗下喺頭先嘅情境中
00:46
that of the scout偵詧員.
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自己扮演唔同嘅角色:偵察兵
00:48
The scout's偵詧員嘅 job工作 is not
to attack攻擊 or defend捍衛.
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偵察兵唔洗攻擊或者防禦
00:51
The scout's偵詧員嘅 job工作 is to understand理解.
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任務只係要了解情況
00:54
The scout偵詧員 is the one going out,
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偵察兵要行出去
00:56
mapping映射 the terrain地形,
identifying識別 potential obstacles障礙.
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畫出敵方嘅地圖
了解潛在嘅阻礙物
01:00
And the scout偵詧員 may可能 hope希望 to learn學習
that, say, there's a bridge
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偵察兵希望了解嘅係譬如
一個方便過河嘅位置
01:04
in a convenient方便 location位置 across a river.
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係唔係有一座橋
01:06
But above以上 all, the scout偵詧員
wants to know what's really there,
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不過更加重要嘅係,偵察兵希望
了解嗰度究竟有啲咩
01:09
as accurately準確 as possible可能.
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知得越精確越好
01:12
And in a real真正, actual實際 army軍隊, both
the soldier士兵 and the scout偵詧員 are essential基本.
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正如真正嘅軍隊入面
士兵同偵察兵都好重要
01:17
But you can also think of each每個
of these roles角色 as a mindset心態 --
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不過你又可以當呢啲
角色代表緊啲思維方式
01:22
a metaphor隱喻 for how all of us
process過程 information信息 and ideas想法
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比喻緊我哋喺日常生活之中
01:26
in our daily日常 lives生活.
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接收信息同諗嘢嘅過程
01:28
What I'm going to argue認為 today今日
is that having good judgment判斷,
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我哋今日想講嘅就係
要擁有優秀嘅判斷力
01:32
making決策 accurate準確 predictions預測,
making決策 good decisions決定,
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要作出精確嘅預測、正確嘅決定
01:35
is mostly主要 about which mindset心態 you're in.
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主要取決於你嘅思維方式
01:38
To illustrate these mindsets心態 in action行動,
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依家我哋可以實際
展示下呢種思維方式
01:41
I'm going to take you back
to 19th-century百年 France法國,
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我會帶住你地去
十九世紀嘅法國
01:45
where this innocuous-looking無害的前瞻
piece一塊 of paper
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喺嗰度,呢張睇落微不足道嘅紙仔
01:48
launched推出 one of the biggest最大
political政治 scandals醜聞 in history歷史.
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引發咗歷史上
數一數二嘅政治醜聞
01:51
It was discovered發現 in 1894
by officers人員 in the French法文 general麻麻 staff員工.
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1894 年,有啲法國公務員發現
01:56
It was torn撕裂 up in a wastepaper廢紙 basket,
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垃圾桶裡面一張撕碎嘅紙
01:59
but when they pieced拼湊 it back together一起,
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將啲紙砌返埋之後
02:01
they discovered發現
that someone有人 in their佢哋 ranks行列
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佢哋發現隊伍裡面有人
02:03
had been selling銷售
military軍事 secrets秘密 to Germany德國.
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偷偷地賣軍事機密畀德國
02:06
So they launched推出 a big investigation調查,
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於是佢哋開始咗個大規模嘅調查
02:08
and their佢哋 suspicions懷疑
quickly迅速 converged融合 on this man,
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調查結果好快指向一個人
02:12
Alfred阿尔弗雷德 Dreyfus德雷福斯.
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阿弗列 ‧ 屈里弗斯
02:14
He had a sterling英鎊 record記錄,
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佢嘅信用紀錄幾好
02:16
no past過去 history歷史 of wrongdoing不當行為,
no motive動機 as far as they could tell.
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之前無做錯過嘢
又唔似有犯案動機
02:20
But Dreyfus德雷福斯 was the only
Jewish猶太 officer人員 at that rank排名 in the army軍隊,
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但係,屈里弗斯係隊伍
入面唯一一個猶太軍官
02:25
and unfortunately不幸 at this time,
the French法文 Army軍隊 was highly高度 anti-Semitic反猶太人.
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不幸嘅係,嗰時法國軍隊好歧視猶太人
02:29
They compared比較 Dreyfus's弗斯嘅 handwriting筆跡
to that on the memo備忘錄
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佢哋攞屈里弗斯嘅字跡同嗰張紙做比較
02:32
and concluded結束 that it was a match匹配,
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發現係一致嘅
02:34
even though雖然 outside外面
professional專業 handwriting筆跡 experts專家
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雖然其他筆跡專家
02:37
were much less confident自信
in the similarity相似,
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覺得冇咁似
02:40
but never mind介意 that.
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但係無論點
02:41
They went and searched搜尋
Dreyfus's弗斯嘅 apartment公寓,
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佢哋去咗屈里弗斯間屋
02:43
looking for any signs迹象 of espionage間諜.
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搵佢做間諜嘅痕跡
佢哋搵暈曬佢啲文件
都搵唔到證據
02:45
They went through透過 his files文件,
and they didn't find anything.
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02:48
This just convinced相信 them more
that Dreyfus德雷福斯 was not only guilty有罪,
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佢哋反而覺得屈里弗斯一定係做緊間諜
02:51
but sneaky偷偷摸摸 as well, because clearly清楚
he had hidden隱藏 all of the evidence證據
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仲超級狡猾,係佢哋嚟到之前
02:54
before they had managed管理 to get to it.
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已經將啲罪證收起曬
02:57
Next, they went and looked
through透過 his personal history歷史
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跟著落嚟,佢哋去查佢嘅個人歷史
02:59
for any incriminating有罪 details細節.
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試圖尋找犯罪嘅痕跡
03:02
They talked談到 to his teachers教師,
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佢哋向佢嘅老師問話
03:03
they found發現 that he had studied研究
foreign外國 languages語言 in school學校,
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發現佢喺學校學過外語
03:06
which clearly清楚 showed表明 a desire欲望
to conspire陰謀 with foreign外國 governments政府
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就覺得佢一定係為咗之後
做外國間諜
03:10
later之後 in life.
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03:11
His teachers教師 also said that Dreyfus德雷福斯
was known for having a good memory記憶,
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佢嘅老師仲話
屈里弗斯記憶力好,好到出曬名
03:18
which was highly高度 suspicious可疑, right?
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真係太可疑啦,係咪?
03:20
You know, because a spy間諜
has to remember記得 a lot of things.
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因為你知啦
間諜係需要記住好多嘢㗎嘛
03:24
So the case情況下 went to trial試驗,
and Dreyfus德雷福斯 was found發現 guilty有罪.
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呢單案件上咗法庭
屈里弗斯被判有罪
03:28
Afterwards之後, they took him out
into this public公眾 square廣場
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之後,佢哋將佢帶到廣場上
03:32
and ritualisticallyritualistically tore撕毀
his insignia徽章 from his uniform均勻
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依足規矩咁扯走佢嘅徽章
03:35
and broke打破 his sword in two.
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又將佢嘅劍折成兩段
03:37
This was called
the Degradation降解 of Dreyfus德雷福斯.
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呢個就係屈里弗斯降級事件
03:40
And they sentenced him
to life imprisonment監禁
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佢哋判咗佢終身監禁
03:43
on the aptly恰當 named Devil's魔鬼的 Island,
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將佢流放到南美洲海岸
03:46
which is this barren rock岩石
off the coast海岸 of South America美國.
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一個叫做魔鬼島嘅荒涼小島上
03:49
So there he went,
and there he spent his days alone一手一腳,
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佢之後就去咗嗰度淒涼度日
03:53
writing寫作 letters字母 and letters字母
to the French法文 government政府
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寫左一封又一封信畀法國政府
03:55
begging them to reopen重新 his case情況下
so they could discover發現 his innocence清白.
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求佢哋重新審過單案時
會察覺佢係無辜嘅
03:59
But for the most part部分,
France法國 considered諗緊 the matter個問題 closed關閉.
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但係大家都覺得
呢單案已經完曬
04:03
One thing that's really interesting有趣
to me about the Dreyfus德雷福斯 Affair事情
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我覺得屈里弗斯事件
好有意思嘅一個地方
04:07
is this question個問題 of why the officers人員
were so convinced相信
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就係嗰啲官員點解咁肯定
04:11
that Dreyfus德雷福斯 was guilty有罪.
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屈里弗斯係有罪嘅呢
04:13
I mean, you might可能 even assume假設
that they were setting設置 him up,
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你甚至會覺得
佢地設佢局
04:16
that they were intentionally故意 framing框架 him.
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特登陷害佢
04:18
But historians史學家 don't think
that's what happened發生.
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不過歷史學家都唔係咁諗
04:20
As far as we can tell,
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我哋可以睇到
04:21
the officers人員 genuinely真正 believed相信
that the case情況下 against Dreyfus德雷福斯 was strong.
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個啲官真係覺得
控訴屈里弗斯嘅理據十足
04:26
Which makes使 you wonder:
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呢件事令人奇怪
04:28
What does it say about the human人類 mind介意
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人類個腦到底有咩問題
04:30
that we can find such paltry微不足道 evidence證據
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以至咁丁點嘅證據
04:33
to be compelling引人注目 enough to convict罪犯 a man?
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都可以說服到人判佢有罪?
04:36
Well, this is a case情況下 of what scientists科學家
call "motivated動機 reasoning推理."
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係咁嘅,科學家發現一種
叫做「動機性推理」嘅現象
04:40
It's this phenomenon現象 in which
our unconscious無意識 motivations動機,
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係指我哋嘅潛意識
04:43
our desires欲望 and fears恐懼,
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我哋嘅慾望同恐懼
04:45
shape形狀 the way we interpret解釋 information信息.
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塑造咗我哋分析信息嘅方式
04:48
Some information信息, some ideas想法,
feel like our allies盟友.
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有啲信息,有啲諗法
對我哋嚟講好似朋友
04:51
We want them to win贏得.
We want to defend捍衛 them.
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我哋想佢地贏
我哋想護住佢哋
04:54
And other information信息
or ideas想法 are the enemy敵人,
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有啲信息好似仇人咁樣
04:56
and we want to shoot開槍 them down.
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我哋想消滅佢哋
04:59
So this is why I call
motivated動機 reasoning推理, "soldier士兵 mindset心態."
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所以我鐘意叫動機性推理
做「士兵思維」
05:03
Probably可能 most of you have never persecuted迫害
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你哋就從未迫害過
05:07
a French-Jewish法語-猶太 officer人員 for high treason叛國,
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猶太裔法國軍官,話佢係叛徒
05:09
I assume假設,
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我估係呱
05:10
but maybe you've followed黎緊 sports體育
or politics政治, so you might可能 have noticed注意
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不過你如果鍾意睇體育
或者政治新聞
你可能已經留意到
05:15
that when the referee裁判 judges法官
that your team團隊 committed承諾 a foul,
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譬如,當個裁判話
05:19
for example例子,
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你鍾意嗰隊犯規
05:21
you're highly高度 motivated動機
to find reasons原因 why he's wrong.
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你就會好想搵理由講
佢點解判錯咗
05:24
But if he judges法官 that the other team團隊
committed承諾 a foul -- awesome!
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不過如果佢判另外嗰隊
犯咗規,你就會覺得好啱
05:27
That's a good call,
let's not examine檢查 it too closely密切.
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這個例子幾好
但大家唔好咁認真
05:30
Or, maybe you've read
an article文章 or a study研究
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或者,你可能啱啱先讀咗一篇
05:32
that examined檢查 some controversial爭議 policy政策,
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有關一啲爭議嘅文章或者研究
05:35
like capital資本 punishment懲罰.
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譬如應唔應該有死刑
05:37
And, as researchers研究者 have demonstrated證明,
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啲研究員發現
05:39
if you support支持 capital資本 punishment懲罰
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如果你支持死刑
05:41
and the study研究 shows顯示
that it's not effective有效,
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但係篇文話死刑無用嘅話
05:44
then you're highly高度 motivated動機
to find all the reasons原因
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你就會好想搵出
05:47
why the study研究 was poorly唔好 designed設計.
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呢份報告邊度寫得唔好
05:49
But if it shows顯示
that capital資本 punishment懲罰 works工程,
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不過如果篇文支持死刑
05:51
it's a good study研究.
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你就會覺得佢寫得好好
05:53
And vice versa反之亦然: if you don't
support支持 capital資本 punishment懲罰, same相同 thing.
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反之亦然:如果你唔
支持死刑,都係一樣嘅
05:56
Our judgment判斷 is strongly強烈
influenced影響, unconsciously唔經唔覺,
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我哋嘅判斷力喺無意之中
05:59
by which side一邊 we want to win贏得.
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受我哋嘅立場好大影響
06:02
And this is ubiquitous無處不在.
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呢個現象好普遍
06:03
This shapes形狀 how we think
about our health健康, our relationships關係,
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決定緊我哋點睇
健康同人際關係
06:07
how we decide決定 how to vote投票,
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點投票
06:08
what we consider諗緊 fair公平 or ethical倫理.
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點先覺得係公平或者合乎道德
06:12
What's most scary可怕 to me
about motivated動機 reasoning推理
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最驚嚇嘅係
06:14
or soldier士兵 mindset心態,
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動機性推理或者士兵思維
06:15
is how unconscious無意識 it is.
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都係完全無意嘅
06:17
We can think we're being
objective目的 and fair-minded思想公正
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我哋以為自己好公正、好客觀
06:20
and still wind up ruining破壞 the life
of an innocent無辜 man.
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但係都可以冤死無辜嘅人
06:25
However然而, fortunately好彩呀 for Dreyfus德雷福斯,
his story故事 is not over.
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不過,好彩屈里弗斯嘅故事未完
06:27
This is Colonel上校 PicquartPicquart.
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呢個係皮卡爾上校
06:29
He's another另一個 high-ranking高等級 officer人員
in the French法文 Army軍隊,
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佢係另外一個法軍高官
06:31
and like most people,
he assumed假設 Dreyfus德雷福斯 was guilty有罪.
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同其他人一樣,佢都覺得屈里弗斯有罪
06:34
Also like most people in the army軍隊,
he was at least最小 casually冇所謂 anti-Semitic反猶太人.
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又同其他人咁,佢都有少少反猶太
06:39
But at a certain一定 pointD,
PicquartPicquart began初時 to suspect懷疑:
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不過,過咗一段時間,皮卡爾開始懷疑
06:43
"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus德雷福斯?"
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「我哋係唔係冤枉咗屈里弗斯?」
06:46
What happened發生 was,
he had discovered發現 evidence證據
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之後,佢發現
06:48
that the spying間諜 for Germany德國 had continued繼續,
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屈里弗斯坐緊監時
06:51
even after Dreyfus德雷福斯 was in prison監獄.
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都繼續有人為德國通風報信
06:53
And he had also discovered發現
that another另一個 officer人員 in the army軍隊
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佢仲發現軍隊入面
06:56
had handwriting筆跡 that perfectly完全
matched匹配 the memo備忘錄,
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有人嘅字跡同果張紙仔上嘅一模一樣
06:59
much closer than Dreyfus's弗斯嘅 handwriting筆跡.
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而且比起屈里弗斯嘅字跡更加似
07:02
So he brought these discoveries發現
to his superiors上級,
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於是,佢向上級匯報佢嘅發現
07:06
but to his dismay沮喪,
they either一係 didn't care護理
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不過令佢失望嘅係,佢哋一係就唔上心
07:09
or came up with elaborate闡述 rationalizations合理化
to explain解釋 his findings發現,
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一係就兜個大圈,合理化啲新發現
07:13
like, "Well, all you've really shown顯示,
PicquartPicquart, is that there's another另一個 spy間諜
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譬如「皮卡爾,你只不過
發現咗另一個間諜
07:18
who learned how to mimic
Dreyfus's弗斯嘅 handwriting筆跡,
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模仿咗屈里弗斯嘅字跡。
07:21
and he picked up the torch火炬 of spying間諜
after Dreyfus德雷福斯 left.
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喺屈里弗斯坐監之後接手間諜工作。
07:25
But Dreyfus德雷福斯 is still guilty有罪."
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不過屈里弗斯都係有罪嘅。」
07:27
Eventually最終, PicquartPicquart managed管理
to get Dreyfus德雷福斯 exonerated免罪.
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最尾,皮卡爾成功幫屈里弗斯洗脫罪名
07:30
But it took him 10 years,
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但係就用咗整整十年
07:32
and for part部分 of that time,
he himself自己 was in prison監獄
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期間佢自己都因為
07:35
for the crime犯罪 of disloyalty不忠 to the army軍隊.
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對軍隊不忠坐咗陣監
07:38
A lot of people feel like PicquartPicquart
can't really be the hero英雄 of this story故事
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好多人覺得皮卡爾唔係成件事嘅英雄
07:44
because he was an anti-Semite抗猶太主義者
and that's bad, which I agree同意 with.
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因為佢都歧視猶太人,我同意呢點
07:49
But personally, for me,
the fact事實 that PicquartPicquart was anti-Semitic反猶太人
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不過,對我黎講,正因為皮卡爾反猶太
07:53
actually講真 makes使 his actions行動 more admirable令人欽佩,
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佢嘅舉動更加令人佩服
07:56
because he had the same相同 prejudices偏見,
the same相同 reasons原因 to be biased偏見
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因為佢都同其他軍官有一樣嘅偏見
有同樣嘅原因可能作出唔公正嘅判斷
07:59
as his fellow條友仔 officers人員,
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08:01
but his motivation動機 to find the truth真理
and uphold秉承 it trumped捏造 all of that.
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但佢尋找、堅持真相嘅動力將功補過
08:07
So to me,
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對於我嚟講
08:08
PicquartPicquart is a poster海報 child孩子
for what I call "scout偵詧員 mindset心態."
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皮卡爾係「偵察思維」嘅典範
08:12
It's the drive驅動 not to make
one idea想法 win贏得 or another另一個 lose失去,
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冇支持或反對任何觀點
08:16
but just to see what's really there
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而係純粹發現事實所在
08:18
as honestly真係 and accurately準確 as you can,
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盡量真實準確嘅事實
08:21
even if it's not pretty
or convenient方便 or pleasant愉快.
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即使啲事實唔光彩、唔方便人
唔討人歡喜
08:25
This mindset心態 is what
I'm personally passionate熱情 about.
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呢個就係我熱愛嘅思維
08:28
And I've spent the last few幾個 years
examining檢查 and trying試圖 to figure out
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過去幾年,我試圖探索同發現
08:33
what causes原因 scout偵詧員 mindset心態.
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「偵察思維」係點樣形成嘅
08:35
Why are some people, sometimes有時 at least最小,
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點解有啲人,有啲時候
08:39
able to cutcut through透過 their佢哋 own自己 prejudices偏見
and biases偏見 and motivations動機
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能夠摒棄自己嘅偏見、主觀同埋動機
08:42
and just try to see the facts事實
and the evidence證據
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嘗試用最客觀嘅眼光
08:45
as objectively客觀 as they can?
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去睇清事實同證據
08:47
And the answer回答 is emotional情感.
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答案就係情感上
08:51
So, just as soldier士兵 mindset心態
is rooted植根 in emotions情緒
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就好似士兵思維係出於
譬如防禦或者親疏有別嘅情感
08:54
like defensiveness防衛 or tribalism部落,
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08:58
scout偵詧員 mindset心態 is, too.
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偵察思維都係
09:00
It's just rooted植根 in different不同 emotions情緒.
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不過係出於唔同嘅情感
09:02
For example例子, scouts童子軍 are curious好奇.
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譬如,偵察者有好奇心
09:05
They're more likely可能 to say
they feel pleasure快樂
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佢哋學到新嘢時
09:09
when they learn學習 new新增功能 information信息
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或者解開難題時
09:10
or an itch to solve解決 a puzzle難題.
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就會好開心
09:13
They're more likely可能 to feel intrigued感興趣
when they encounter遇到 something
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如果佢哋發現有嘢
違背咗佢哋嘅假設
09:16
that contradicts矛盾 their佢哋 expectations期望.
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就會覺得好奇
09:19
Scouts童子軍 also have different不同 values.
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偵察者都有唔同嘅價值觀
09:21
They're more likely可能 to say
they think it's virtuous良性
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佢哋覺得驗證自己嘅觀念
09:24
to test測試 your own自己 beliefs信仰,
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係一種美德
09:25
and they're less likely可能 to say
that someone有人 who changes變化 his mind介意
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而唔會覺得
09:29
seems好似 weak.
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改變諗法係一種軟弱嘅行為
09:30
And above以上 all, scouts童子軍 are grounded接地,
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最後,偵察者係腳踏實地嘅
09:32
which means意味着 their佢哋 self-worth自我價值 as a person
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佢哋作為人嘅自尊唔係取決於
09:36
isn't tied to how right or wrong
they are about any particular特定 topic主題.
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佢哋對於特定議題嘅諗法係對定錯
09:42
So they can believe
that capital資本 punishment懲罰 works工程.
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佢哋可能覺得死刑係有用嘅
09:45
If studies研究 come out showing顯示
that it doesn't, they can say,
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但如果有研究話死刑係冇用嘅
09:48
"Huh. Looks睇黎 like I might可能 be wrong.
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid愚蠢."
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佢哋會諗「係,我諗錯咗,
但都唔代表我差勁或者蠢」
09:53
This cluster集群 of traits性狀
is what researchers研究者 have found發現 --
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研究員發現呢啲性格特點
——而我都係啲故事中發現
09:58
and I've also found發現 anecdotally有趣 --
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預示咗人嘅判斷能力高低
10:00
predicts預測 good judgment判斷.
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10:02
And the key關鍵 takeaway帶走 I want
to leave離開 you with about those traits性狀
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我最想比你知道嘅就係
10:05
is that they're primarily主要
not about how smart you are
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係呢啲性格特點同你醒唔醒無關
10:09
or about how much you know.
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同你識幾多嘢都無關
10:11
In fact事實, they don't correlate相關
very much with IQ智商 at all.
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其實同智商都冇咩數據上嘅關係
10:14
They're about how you feel.
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主要都係同情感有關
10:16
There's a quote報價 that I keep
coming back to, by Saint-Exup圣 exupéryry.
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我成日引用聖埃克絮佩里
10:20
He's the author作者 of "The Little Prince王子."
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——即係《小王子》嘅作者所講
10:22
He said, "If you want to build建立 a ship,
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「如果你想造船,
10:26
don't drum up your men男人
to collect收集 wood木材 and give orders訂單
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唔好叫人地收集木頭、發號施令、
10:30
and distribute the work.
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分配工作,
10:32
Instead相反, teach them to yearn渴望
for the vast巨大 and endless無盡 sea."
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而係要教識佢哋嚮往
無邊無際嘅大海。」
10:38
In other words的話, I claim索賠,
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換句話講
10:40
if we really want to improve提高
our judgment判斷 as individuals
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如果我哋真係想改善判斷能力
10:44
and as societies社會,
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不論係作為係個人或者社會
10:45
what we need most
is not more instruction教學 in logic邏輯
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我哋最需要嘅唔係更多嘅邏輯構建
10:49
or rhetoric修辭 or probability概率 or economics經濟學,
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比喻、機會率又或經濟學
10:52
even though雖然 those things
are quite都幾 valuable寶貴.
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儘管呢啲嘢都好有價值
10:54
But what we most need
to use those principles原則 well
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不過要好好利用呢個理論
我哋最需要嘅係偵查思維
10:58
is scout偵詧員 mindset心態.
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10:59
We need to change the way we feel.
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我哋需要改變自己嘅感觀
11:01
We need to learn學習 how to feel proud驕傲
instead相反 of ashamed羞愧
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我哋需要學習
喺發現自己諗錯嘢時
11:05
when we notice通知 we might可能
have been wrong about something.
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覺得自豪而唔係羞恥
11:08
We need to learn學習 how to feel intrigued感興趣
instead相反 of defensive防禦
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需要學習如何喺發現一啲
同我哋觀念牴觸嘅資訊時
11:11
when we encounter遇到 some information信息
that contradicts矛盾 our beliefs信仰.
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覺得好奇而唔係戒備
11:16
So the question個問題 I want
to leave離開 you with is:
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所以,我想問你哋嘅問題係
11:19
What do you most yearn渴望 for?
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你最想要嘅係咩?
11:22
Do you yearn渴望 to defend捍衛 your own自己 beliefs信仰?
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你想防禦自己嘅觀念?
11:26
Or do you yearn渴望 to see the world世界
as clearly清楚 as you possibly可能 can?
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定係想盡可能睇到真實嘅世界?
11:30
Thank you.
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多謝各位
11:31
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Yang He
Reviewed by Tim Yan

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julia Galef - Writer
Julia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds.

Why you should listen

Julia Galef co-founded the Center for Applied Rationality, a nonprofit organization devoted to helping people improve their reasoning and decision-making, particularly with the aim of addressing global problems. Julia’s background is originally in statistics, and she did social science research at Columbia and Harvard Business Schools for several years before becoming a writer for venues such as Slate, Science, Scientific American and more. For the last six years, Julia has hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast

More profile about the speaker
Julia Galef | Speaker | TED.com